WEBVTT - 55: Here Are The Signs That A Civilization Is About To Collapse 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:02.320 But knowledge to work and grow your business with c 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:06.680 i T. From transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:10.520 T offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:13.480 small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c i 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:27.120 T dot com put Knowledge to Work. Welcome to another 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.800 edition of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway, executive 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:34.599 editor of Bloomberg Markets, and I'm Joe wisn't All, Managing 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.640 editor at Bloomberg Markets. So, Joe, how do you feel 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:43.519 about the future of civilization at the moment? Tracy? It's 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.880 just all looks so bleak, So everything is so depressing. 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:50.800 It seems like all of the things that we took 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:55.640 for granted in terms of political norms and systems that 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:58.920 we just assumed we're permanent, all seemed to be going down. 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:02.040 The drain seems to be all over, doesn't it. That's 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.600 one way of putting it. Was that a little more, 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:08.120 was that a little was it was actually, you know, 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:11.360 I'm always trying to cheer you up, So I thought 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:15.160 today we could talk to an expert on the collapse 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:19.840 of civilizations. That sounds wonderful. That sounds like the perfect 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:23.200 pick me up topic. In all seriousness, I think you're 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.880 going to like this particular guest because I know that 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:29.399 you have an interest in Guatemala in particular, I think 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:33.120 your mother lives out there, now, that's right, Yeah, that's right. 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:36.319 My mom is sort of a retired to Guatemala to 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:38.480 be a painter and live at the side of a lake. 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:42.520 And I spent a month out there actually, right before 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:44.280 I joined your team, So I got to see some 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.640 of the old Mayan monuments things like that. And the 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:51.000 mind civilization is of course famous for its collapse, one 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:55.400 of many ancient civilizations that have collapsed over the millennia, 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:59.120 I suppose, and to talk about that today and to 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:02.960 connect it to what's potentially happening in the rest of 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:05.760 the world. Right now, we have a guy who has 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:10.679 at various times been dubbed the real Indiana Jones. Oh 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:14.400 my god. Yeah. And actually the person who recommended him 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:17.600 to us was a previous gust on this show. It's 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:21.959 John Shane, also known as Merle Hazard, and he described 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:26.680 he described our guest as a man who spends much 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:31.240 of his time in a tent in various tropics with 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:34.680 bottles of scotch and philosophy books. But I should give 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:38.079 him a proper intro. It is Arthur Demorrist. He is 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.600 an anthropologist. He's the author of something like twenty books 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:44.480 about various societies, and he is also a professor at 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.800 Vanderbilt University. So I think it's going to be really 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:51.400 really interesting. Well, I think a living intent and drinking 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:54.440 scotch and reading philosophy books maybe in all of our 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:58.400 cards at some point. So don't not write that bleak. 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:10.640 But but I can't wait. Let's get it started. Arthur, 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.040 thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you, 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:15.400 Thank you. I have some comments on your comments if 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.560 you like, yeah, just jump right in. We don't even 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:20.880 have to ask you a question. Well, you know, a 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:25.720 living in the in the jungle, it's like degrees all 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:28.600 the time and mud and full of snakes and scorpions 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.840 and stuff and mosquitoes. But living in a tent in 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.920 the jungle, once you get used to that, uh, you 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.880 kind of need some scotch in the evening. But I 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:40.600 mean you can. You can't binge drink it because you 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:43.040 gotta make it last. Yeah. I was just gonna say, 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:45.440 you have to bring it in yourself, right, there's probably 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.040 not an easy way to Now it's it's bout and 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.680 forward drive vehicle, and you know you can't get there 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:56.480 except bye bye riverboat. Ultimately, and I do have the 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:59.880 best philosophy library and the entire pretend rainforest. I'm reason 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.440 be sure that I haven't actually checked, but I already 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:05.720 liked this episode. I just want to say I love it. 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:08.280 I love it there, I really love it there. Let's 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:13.320 talk about civilization collapsing happier topics. UM, What makes a 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:19.120 civilization collapse? Almost all civilizations collapse, especially complex ones. Uh. 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:22.680 And there are many different reasons. But my after studying, 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.279 you know, I teach about eighteen or nineteen collapses, and 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:28.839 I'm working now with angor collapse. I've also been working 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:32.560 with business people, UM like Bart Victor at the at 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:36.800 the Owen School of Business about it. And you see patterns. 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:41.880 But the broadest pattern is that often, maybe usually, the 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:47.120 strengths of a civilization, it's basic characteristics over time are 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:50.760 the same things that bring it down. Um. And the 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:54.560 other thing you see is a broad characterization. People think collapse, 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.239 you know, decline, things fall apart a little by little. 0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:02.800 The apogees of civilizations, the right fluorescences are often the collapses. 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:06.960 The collapses going on, and it looks really good from 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:11.680 the from the monuments and stuff, and uh and and 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:13.520 then there are a bunch of patterns that you see 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:15.640 over and over again, many of which apply to us 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.760 and business and so on. So I can't really help 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:22.440 you with being optimistic. I'm sort of it's kind of 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:26.719 it's I'm sort of like, you know, a funeral parlor 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:32.080 director of civilizations. I I emphasize the collapses because from 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:35.120 the way they collapse, you can go back and see 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.840 what went wrong and how they were structured. So it's 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:42.320 also just a way to look uh more carefully at 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:46.839 the basic features of civilizations too. I'm curious. So you 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:52.920 said that often civilizations collapse for the same due to 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:56.680 the same characteristics that may have defined their strong periods, 0:05:56.680 --> 0:06:01.880 so the strengths become their weaknesses. Give us a concrete 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:05.400 example of the civilization where you know, you can point 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:07.800 to one aspect of the civilization that made it thrive, 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.680 and then that same that same aspect proved to be 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:14.799 its undoing. Well, it's never one aspect, but a perfect 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:18.520 example is the Maya civilization. And I've been uh, you know, 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:22.000 working comparatively with anger in Cambodia. You know, they have 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:25.000 Anger Watch and that's very similar in both of them, 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:30.039 and that is that high civilizations really aren't supposed to 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:34.760 exist in a tropical forest, um, because of the thin soils, 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.880 the fragile environment and all of that. UH. And they really, 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:40.000 you know, the lost cities in the jungle thing, it's 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:41.479 you know, it's kind of like what I do. And 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:43.840 that's one of the reasons why there's so much public interest, 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.000 because you always have those in the movies, but there 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.200 really aren't a lot of places, and so there's they're 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:55.240 successful secret was to adapt their cities to the tropical 0:06:55.320 --> 0:07:00.560 forest uh, and to make them kind of dispersed, more disperse, 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:05.440 more green and spread out and to mimic the diversity 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:08.360 and diversion of there are all different kinds of field systems, 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:12.000 nothing like Kansas, you know, no monoculture, one crop, but 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:15.360 a lot of different kinds of field systems sensitive to 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.160 the micro environment. And that means it had to be 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:22.800 decentralized so the local farmers uh could do things and 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:27.240 UH and that was great UM. And you know, many 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:29.560 things can go wrong though, as you start to get 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:34.520 too successful and uh and build up and population grows 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:38.480 that begins to put a strain on the environment. But 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:40.800 the latest stuff that I've been doing, and this is 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:42.880 this is you know, the work that I'm doing now 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:47.280 at con Quinn, this Maya city and the whole region. 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.920 My projects cover the whole whole region. Um. It's actually 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:55.679 a big part of that's owned by Vanderbilt. Um. But anyway, Um, 0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:59.920 they started to switch. The whole world of Mesoamerica began 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.720 and to switch to something much closer to our kind 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:07.560 of economy, you know, a long distance exchange over there. 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:11.960 The basic characteristics of our our economy since Mesopotamia, Western 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:17.360 economies is overproduction of one thing in one area and 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:20.800 then over production of another thing in another area, and 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:23.200 exchange through a market. Like you know, you have tons 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:26.000 of wheat and one area and goats in another, and 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:29.120 then you have a market exchange sometimes over large distances. 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:31.840 That had started to spread because you know that's sort 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.480 of um, it's closer to capitalism in a way. Um. 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.400 It's very successful, and it kind of spread through Mesoamerica. 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:43.840 And once that really took hold, the Maya area was 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:50.479 not very competitive and eventually their trade routes were um, 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:54.319 you know, taken over by by various people and moved 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:59.200 to the coasts. And um also their decentralized system. How 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:02.560 do you hold together or civilization, it's like that dispersed. 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:05.440 And the answer you see an Anger watt and with 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:09.440 the Maya, is this divine kingship system where these huge 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:13.440 rituals in these beautiful ceremonial centers that kind of hold 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:17.679 the state together. And the king's power isn't just political, 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:22.040 it's largely religious. Uh, they're divine kings and that's perfect 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:25.600 for the forest. But also the king is you know, 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:29.040 he's a general, he's a ruler. He's also like the 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:32.520 pope um. He's also a ball player in their games. 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:36.200 He's also a performer. They sang and danced, and anything 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:39.040 that goes wrong is his fault because you know, even 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.720 if it's just like you know, bad rains or crops 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.840 or hurricane, whatever it is, he's supposed to be talking 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.840 to the gods and the ancestor, you know. But anyway, 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:52.640 that's that's an example of of a civilization whose basic 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:56.800 wonderful adaptation in the rainforest to the rainforest made them vulnerable. 0:09:56.880 --> 0:10:00.320 Anger has the same exact type of collapse. I mean, 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.840 ours will be very very different from that, more like 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:07.360 the Indus, I think. So, I'm just curious, when these 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:11.960 societies start nearing collapse, do you see certain patterns of 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:16.560 behavior by their elites, like their kings and their religious figures. 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:19.680 Because of course, with the rise of Donald Trump and 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:23.480 some other populist or nationalist parties in Europe, we've really 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:28.120 seen um a lot of judgment heaped on the elites 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:32.120 of those particular political systems. Well, yeah, you do see 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.920 counter movements and counter trends, which are sometimes good and 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:41.240 sometimes not, but those are usually reactions to an ongoing, 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:45.480 as you said, and ongoing collapse. What you see most 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:47.240 and this is this is one of the things that 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:49.320 you know, you can talk about two C e O 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.680 s and all, and is that the leaders do more 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:57.560 of what they do. They intensify whatever they do, because 0:10:57.559 --> 0:10:59.920 that's you know, they don't know about doing something else, 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:04.080 so they just intensify, They double and triple down on 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:08.640 the existing order. Yeah, and it is almost always counterproductive. 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:13.400 Um it's it's almost always counterproductive. With the maya and anger, 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:16.360 you know, things are not going well, so obviously you've 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:19.040 got to build more temples. They have to be more impressive. 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:22.520 Bigger rituals make the gods happy but also make the 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:26.640 people happy. UM. And so you're put you're taking more 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:31.040 and more energy out of the environment and bringing things down. 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.080 And you see that over and over again, and it's 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.760 you know, I think I think it's going on pretty 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:40.320 obviously right now. I would say more in business and 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:43.920 technology than in politics. I think in our case, the 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:47.480 politics is sort of, uh, you know, a reaction to 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:51.040 the trend, not leading it, and that is often the case. 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:54.040 We gotta take a quick break for a word from 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:59.160 our sponsor and we'll be right back. But Knowledge to 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:01.839 work and grow your business with c i T from 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:07.000 transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i T offers commercial lending, leasing, 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:10.719 and treasury management services for small and middle market businesses. 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:13.600 Learn more at c i T dot com Put Knowledge 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:23.240 to Work. And we're back with Professor Arthur Demerist. He's 0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:29.040 a anthropologist who studies the collapse of civilizations. UM. He's 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:32.560 been called the real life Indiana Jones. We're talking about 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:37.840 before the break, how when civilizations collapse, you see leaders 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:41.360 doubling and tripling down on whatever they're doing. Now, you 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:45.600 mentioned that you see that a lot in business, not 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:49.040 just in uh civilizations, but you see it in business. 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.840 What are some examples when you talk to business schools 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:56.240 and business leaders, there are some examples that sort of 0:12:56.280 --> 0:13:01.679 really highlight this behavior. That behavior often also comes from 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:07.480 short term thinking and leaders trying to hold onto power 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:10.280 by doing more of what they do. And that's you 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.400 really see that with c e O s now. I 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:17.120 think the short cycle in which they're judged and this 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.600 is also happening with politicians. It's shorter and shorter cycles 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.960 on which they're judged um leads them to try to 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:30.920 make fast reactions, fast solutions, and you really can't. Like business, 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:35.120 a CEO is like a president like has to can't 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.640 go out and say, well, you know, we're gonna slow 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:41.600 down and have really much slower growth and probably you know, 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:46.360 lower stock prices for three or four years and we 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:48.240 can build back up, you know, and then you know, 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:52.000 all these politicians and you know, the new president actually 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:54.960 all of them will say, well, we're gonna fix all this, 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:57.160 and they're only in there for four eight years, and 0:13:57.320 --> 0:13:59.640 you can't fix anything with that, you know, you can 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:03.839 just lay groundwork, so they they during that period, they 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.880 can't you have time to restructure things. So you just 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:11.839 intensify and you know, that's a pattern, that's um it's 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.200 very common, and that's one of the reasons why uh 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:20.520 apogees or fluorescences, you know, the peak of things actually 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.280 we looks really great to us, especially with ancient civilizations, 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:28.280 but or even historical ones. But that really is some 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.480 of that going on. And I think it's also some 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.080 of that that you know you see in bubbles. The 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.560 bubbles you see uh with um like the you know, 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.000 the the high tech bubble and the e bubble, all 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:42.480 of that, um that is that the real estate bubble. 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:46.920 That is a perfect example of intensifying more and more 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:51.440 something that has been successful and is actually beginning to 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:56.040 undermine the system and then it leads right into collapse. 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:58.960 And so when once you start studying that, you look 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:02.800 back at things like a Renaissance in Italy, which everyone wow, 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.240 what a great The Renaissance was a collapse. It was 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:10.080 it was a complete collapse and it ended in you know, disaster, 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.720 as did the Golden Age of Greece and so on. 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:16.600 So when people are looking for you know, the down periods, 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:20.480 they they don't see that factor. And it is really 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:24.320 very common and that's because of that leadership problems. You 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.200 run a problems, it just leads you to think in 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:31.800 sort of desperate solutions, shorter and shorter solutions. Um, it's happening. 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:35.440 I think also with high tech a lot the hypercoherence 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:39.440 is just being made worse constantly. Joe and I have 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:43.320 spent um probably many hours at this point talking about 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:47.040 market bubbles and what tips bubbles. Uh, you know, from 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:53.320 euphoria into fear and pain. I suppose is there a 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:57.640 particular thing, like one thing that you could pinpoint that's 0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:01.040 the tipping point when it comes to civilizations? Uh, not 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.520 one the thing that you know I'm making. I'm making 0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:06.920 these statements and they there they apply. And the thing 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.720 that's great about the study of civilizations, and I'm teaching 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:14.160 this class right now that is a seminar that's eighteen civilizations. 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:18.680 They have different lessons and so you draw different aspects 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:21.280 from different cultures and then you can see that those 0:16:21.320 --> 0:16:25.080 patterns reapplying. So not all of the collapses are that 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:28.480 kind of apag bubble thing. Um, you do see the 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:33.080 pattern of that intensification of of what you do. You 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.200 do see the pattern almost always of shorter and shorter 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.080 term thinking. You know, you're getting into trouble, so you're 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.200 trying to fix it faster and faster, and that is 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:46.960 another counterproductive response. You can also see in you know, 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:51.400 you also study non collapse. I mean most of the time, Uh, 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:56.040 there's a near collapse and then uh they change some 0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:58.840 things and they have maybe a kind of a big 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.600 recession and then they go on. Uh. So you also 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:04.440 get to study, you know, why there was a collapse 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:08.919 in this case and not in another case. Our civilization, 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:13.760 I would take from the indus um hyper coherence. What 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:17.720 does that mean? Hyper coherence? Well, it's it's one of 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:21.119 those really great strengths. I mean, well, I think one 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.040 of you is in Abu Dhabi. Uh. It's the the 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:28.760 integration of the society. It's the society gets better and 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:35.080 better integrated, leading to better decision making, leading to great wealth. 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:39.760 Uh are A good example is our our situation. We're 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:44.400 probably the most hyper coherent where the you know, the computer, 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:48.199 the Internet, satellites were all really all tied together. And 0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:51.800 that's great, and it's getting getting more and more over time, 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:54.840 and that's creating more and more wealth. And you know, 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:57.520 with the E network and Amazon and all the rest. 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:02.960 But um, if there's a problem in one part of 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:06.320 the system, it radiates through the whole system and at 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:09.840 a certain point can bring the whole thing down, which 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:13.280 we see, you know, like there's a slowdown, not even 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:16.800 a recession in China, and pizza parlors are closing all 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.480 over you know Chili. Um you can see it when well, 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.200 I mean I see it. I tell I tell people 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:27.200 that the foremost common words in the English language are 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.840 the system is down. Uh, that's you hear that everywhere. 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:35.000 And there's some glitch in something, uh in Atlanta or 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:39.000 uh and Delta has to cancel three thousand flights. I 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:40.920 mean that happens all the time, that kind of thing. 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:44.960 We are really hypercoherent and uh it's the source of 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:48.840 our great wealth. But it really is becoming a vulnerability. 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.600 And the response to that, because you have business competition, 0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:58.400 is more and more integration, better and better systems of integration, 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.679 and more in or hyper coherence, and more and more fragility. 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:04.840 I was just gonna say, it seems like the natural 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:09.239 conclusion from that point would be to build sort of 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:12.680 walls into the system, or to build some sort of 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:19.200 like protection or buffer. But people up until very recently 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:23.040 didn't really seem to like doing that, Like going against 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.320 the grain of globalization was seen as a bad thing, 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:29.560 particularly for markets and economics. These are things that business 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.840 people in particular don't like to hear. Well, there's a 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.919 lot of reasons for that. Um one of them, and 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:41.720 this we've taken from business with my interactions with my colleagues, 0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:45.719 But there's a one popular theory that as society has 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:51.679 become more complex, investment has diminishing marginal returns. You know, 0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:54.280 at first you make an investment of a hundred dollars 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:58.280 in Microsoft, and then you know, over time, uh, you 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:01.480 don't get you know, a thousand present profit. It slows 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:05.040 down gradually, and eventually as you add more employees and 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:08.240 so on, it it breaks off or even causes the 0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:13.720 system to slow down and to become less productive. And you're, 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:16.920 you know, you're you go from diminishing marginal returns to 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:22.280 diminishing returns, and that happens a lot in complex societies. 0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:27.919 The other problem is status rivalry, which you see with me. 0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:30.119 That's one of the problems in the renaissance. You know, 0:20:30.760 --> 0:20:34.240 you see it here with us. It's companies and countries 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:38.720 and so when you know that you really should sort 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.359 of slow down and UM, and it costs money to 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:48.000 do the backup systems and UM may just require UH 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:52.960 cutting down on the degree of coherent hyper coherence that 0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:58.000 causes profit loss, that causes that diminishing marginal returns. And 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:01.480 the rulers of the Maya state, it's UH, or the 0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:06.000 rulers of the Renaissance cities, they they can't get away 0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:09.480 with that. They've got a public that wants things more quickly. 0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:12.640 And again that when you have that kind of competition, 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:17.159 the the desire to beat the other guy or do 0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:21.560 better UH is really that's what the leader depends upon. 0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:26.440 Does that competition sort of engender what you say, these 0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:30.040 apogees of civilization, the building of pyramids, the funding of 0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:33.199 great works of art, is that part of what drives that. 0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:36.720 So you have everyone competing for status and trying to 0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.600 establish something great to compensate for the decline. And so 0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:43.600 we get these periods that look amazing, but they're actually 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.479 a phenomenon of decline. That's perfect I think better phrase 0:21:47.560 --> 0:21:50.760 than mine. I'm not accustomed to saying things in less 0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:53.040 than an hour and a half. But that's why it's 0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:57.160 called status rivalry. Status war is a form of status rivalry, 0:21:57.200 --> 0:22:00.880 but also, like the Renaissance is a good example, competitive 0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:04.320 art and building cathedrals better than the other guy and 0:22:04.359 --> 0:22:08.600 so on, and it does generate this this magnificence. And 0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:12.040 Bill Gates had just said, this is something about this 0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:15.479 is the best time and in history or our history 0:22:16.000 --> 0:22:18.120 in terms of you know, the way the world is 0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:22.200 or something, and I said, wow, that's really ominous, because 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:25.520 that's when you start to say something like that. Maybe 0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:30.080 you're in a crescendo, maybe you're in a bubble, and uh, 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:32.480 you see that over and over again. It looks really 0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:37.040 really great, like the Maya civilization. Wow, anger incredible stuff 0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:40.080 they're building in the jungle. But everyone admires the Renaissance. 0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:43.040 Look at all of that. It looks great. But that's 0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:47.760 more and more expenditure. And it's also leaders competing with 0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:50.280 other leaders. It's more with C e O s now, 0:22:50.359 --> 0:22:53.880 but also with countries, and that keeps it accelerating, keeps 0:22:53.880 --> 0:22:56.840 it looking better and better, and keeps making it more 0:22:56.840 --> 0:23:01.080 and more fragile. So when Donald Trump says he wants 0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:04.439 to build a great wall and start an infrastructure fund 0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:08.160 and ramp up defense, spending and things like that, Um, 0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:12.080 how working should we be? Well we should again. I 0:23:12.119 --> 0:23:14.840 think these things are more of you know, people are 0:23:14.880 --> 0:23:18.480 worried about about Trump, and yeah, that's you know, a 0:23:18.560 --> 0:23:24.359 symptom more than a cause. It's it's the pressure for 0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:28.960 shorter and shorter term results, which happens as things begin 0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:32.400 to not keep up and people begin to get dissatisfied, 0:23:32.440 --> 0:23:37.000 like all of the workers in Pennsylvania and so on. Uh. 0:23:37.119 --> 0:23:40.000 You then you know, you see counter movements and reactions. 0:23:40.000 --> 0:23:42.479 But the problem with what he wants to do and 0:23:42.520 --> 0:23:45.399 what every president has wanted to do to some degree, 0:23:46.119 --> 0:23:49.560 the promises of renewing our infrastructure and building the wall. 0:23:49.600 --> 0:23:53.520 The problem is that, um, that can't be done quickly. 0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:56.520 And I mean that really ties into a whole another 0:23:57.119 --> 0:24:01.080 group of theories that some people call entanglement theory, which 0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:05.680 is that you you build this infrastructure that is so 0:24:05.800 --> 0:24:10.119 great and so wonderful, but then over time, the government, 0:24:10.640 --> 0:24:13.920 the institutions, the people are sort of entangled in it, 0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:19.640 and as you lose resources, you're dependent on this system 0:24:19.680 --> 0:24:24.240 that you can't maintain, and it's impossible to really scale back. 0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:27.600 I mean, you know, you can't say, well, we can't 0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:31.959 maintain this interstate system. So we're just gonna concentrate on 0:24:32.000 --> 0:24:35.960 some main roads. Or this subway line is really losing money, 0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:39.200 so we're just going to close it. Uh. Mayors can't 0:24:39.200 --> 0:24:42.480 do that, they'll get kicked out. So what you get 0:24:42.560 --> 0:24:45.360 is this, This happened with anger and a lot of them. Uh, 0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:50.040 this dependence on this infrastructure and no way to really 0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:53.080 when it gets to be hard to fund and maintain, 0:24:53.760 --> 0:24:55.600 no way to do that. So you have, you know, 0:24:55.640 --> 0:24:59.160 you intensify efforts and you just don't have the resources, 0:24:59.240 --> 0:25:03.639 and it can bring whole civilization down real quickly. Because 0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:06.919 we're just about out of time just a few seconds. Uh, 0:25:07.359 --> 0:25:13.080 how quickly can it all collapse? Very quickly? Uh? I'm sorry, 0:25:13.240 --> 0:25:17.040 this has been very depressing with Look, with with more time, 0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:21.000 I could make your your listeners weep. Would you like that? No? 0:25:21.080 --> 0:25:23.480