WEBVTT - Trump's Tariffs and Taxes, Revenge Quitting 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:06.840 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:13.160 This is Bloomberg BusinessWeek inside from the reporters and editors 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:17.400 who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:21.160 finance and tech news as it happens. Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:25.560 with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:29.960 It is a Bloomberg BusinessWeek, that is Carol Masser, I'm 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:34.080 Tim Stenebeck live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio in 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:37.800 New York. Let's talk tariffs, Carol, because President Elect Donald 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:41.200 Trump's threats of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports might 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:43.800 be merely tough talk to the two largest US trading 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:48.159 partners for the North American auto industry and especially American producers, 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:52.000 though import taxes like the kindies espousing would bring quote 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:55.480 considerable pain. That's among the conclusions in this new report 0:00:55.920 --> 0:01:00.319 from Bloomberg Economics Nicole Gordon Caratelli, who writes quote, by 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:03.640 threatening Canada and Mexico with tariffs, Trump is threatening to 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:06.039 significantly disrupt the US auto sector. 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:08.720 Yeah, this is a big thing, Joseph Thorndike, or might be, 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:12.679 depending on exactly what gets done. Joseph Thorndyke is director 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.880 of the Tax History Project at Tax Analysts, which calls 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:20.640 itself a nonpartisan, nonprofit publisher of news and commentary about federal, state, 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:23.600 and international tax issues, which the organization does under the 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:26.920 brand tax Notes. Joseph joining us on this Tuesday from 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:29.600 False Church, Virginia. Jose good to have you here with us. 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:35.240 Walk us through what some of the implications we could 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:41.399 see from potential tariffs in the Trump administration. How are 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:43.240 you seeing it? What are you hearing from clients? What 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:44.200 are their concerns? 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:47.840 I mean, there are a lot of possibilities here, and 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:51.440 that probably more unknowns than there are knowns, because you know, 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:53.720 Donald Trump is notoriously a little bit loose about the 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:56.280 specifics when he talks about things, so it's hard to 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:58.440 know exactly what he has. In mind that the kind 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.320 of tariffs that he's talking about is across the board tariffs, 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:04.360 so say ten twenty five percent, the number of moves 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:09.680 around these have the likelihood to be really disruptive. And those, 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:12.160 you know, those sorts of tariffs are unusual. First of all, 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:14.960 they have like a flat ray tarraff across all products, 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:16.760 and it's not at all clear that he would do 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.120 something like that, even as some of his advisors have 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:22.880 suggested that, you know, he wouldn't impose a tariff on 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:27.240 on items which don't really have a domestic manufacturing equivalent. 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:31.280 But it seems likely that these tariffs, but they you know, 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.320 they might be a negotiating ploy to extract good deals 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:37.760 with other countries. Certainly the deal maker, Donald Trump, has 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:42.320 said that. But they think they should be taken reasonably 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:45.600 seriously because Trump has been talking about them forever as 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:48.639 long as he's actually been in politics. So I think 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.040 this strikes fear into the hearts of lots of people, 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.079 including a lot of businesses who stand to see their 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:56.600 supply chains disrupted by this. 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:58.600 You would, you know, how do you look at this 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:02.679 over at the tax history project, at tax analysts? Do 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:04.519 you look at tariffs as a tax? 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:06.840 Absolutely? 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:09.519 In fact, for a long time, they were really pretty 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:12.280 much the only tax that the United States had, so 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:15.320 up until the Civil War, really the only thing going 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:18.400 most of the time except during wars, and even in 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.480 the after the Civil War, they're still providing sixty percent 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:24.920 of total revenue up until you know, nineteen thirteen or so. 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:28.160 Because this is the way that the founders of the 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.560 country thought we would raise most of our revenue. The 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:32.760 problem is that doesn't work very well at. 0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:33.480 A couple of moments. 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:35.600 It doesn't work very well during wars, which have a 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.600 tendency to disrupt trade. 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:39.360 And it tends to not work all that. 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:43.400 Well politically in the sense that tariffs are consumption taxes 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:46.880 paid by the consumers of products, and that tends to 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.280 be unpopular at various points. That was true during the 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:51.720 Civil War, it was true in nineteen thirteen, and it's 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:53.240 actually how we got the income tax. 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:56.840 You know, I do think about this a lot, and 0:03:56.880 --> 0:04:01.320 like you say, a blanket tariff on I mean, some 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:04.960 would argue, right that targeted tariffs makes sense, whether you're 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:10.800 trying to protect a growing industry, whether it's national security issues, like, 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:14.160 there's a lot of things that I guess would make sense. 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:17.600 But you do wonder about just throwing it on everything. 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:20.440 You know, in an environment where we just brought inflation 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.080 down a lot over the last year, but there are 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:26.080 still concerns of inflation being a little bit sticky here 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.560 and maybe going up again. I mean, a blanket tariff 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:31.640 would change a lot of. 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:37.480 Things absolutely, And you know, tariffs used to all be targeted. 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:41.600 So we've forgotten this because since the nineteen thirties or so, 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:45.080 Congress has more or less abdicated responsibility over tariffs. They've 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:47.640 passed a series of laws which would let the president 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:51.080 make most of the granular decisions. But before that, it 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:54.440 was Congress who was voting on really every single item 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:56.760 that was going to be tariffed. You know, the whole 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:58.880 tariff would go up, the steel tariff would go down. 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:01.760 There were are over whether there should be a breakfast 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.560 table tariff relief, in which, you know, items that people 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:07.320 eat at their breakfast table, like sugar, should be reduced. 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:10.880 Congress was really engaged in that granular work of deciding 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:14.520 which products exactly should pay which sorts of tariffs. That 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:18.159 was incredibly dysfunctional, I mean to be completely honest, because 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.560 Congress did a lot of log rolling, right like one 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.920 member would say, Okay, we'll protect your sugar industry if 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:25.800 you'll protect our steel industry, and that's just made for 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:26.920 really high tariffs. 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:30.400 Do you think we're I mean, I don't want to 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:32.880 say we're, but I think do you think do you 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:35.320 think that given the research that you've done at the 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:39.200 Tax History Project, and tax analysts and tax notes. Do 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:44.000 you think Americans understand the implications of tariffs, like who 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:45.120 pays for them? 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.600 I think that that's asking a lot for voters, right, 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:51.840 So we all want voters to be perfectly informed about 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:54.400 the incidents of taxes. But that's just ridiculous, right, They've 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:57.320 never been that. I think it's very easy to pitch 0:05:57.360 --> 0:05:59.520 tariffs as something that someone else is going to pay, 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:01.599 and Donald Trump does that all the time. He says 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:04.120 other countries are going to pay these but in reality, 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.400 that's just not the way it works. Almost all the time, 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:10.719 almost all the time that those tariffs get passed along 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:14.200 to consumers, even for domestically produced goods. Like let's say 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.680 that we're putting a tariff on imported cars. Domestic producers 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:19.400 of cars will say, hey, well we can raise our 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:21.280 prices to equal the tariff price or maybe just a 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:22.040 little bit below. 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:24.080 So that's the irony here, is that. 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:26.320 It lowers I mean, it raises the prices not just 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:28.640 of imported goods, but of domestic goods too. 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:33.000 You know, when we talk about tax policy in general, right, 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.080 it gets us to do things. You get a tax credit, 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.800 you buy an ev you get a tax credit because 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.760 of your mortgage a mortgage deduction. Well you maybe think, okay, 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:42.479 buying a home isn't so bad, like I do, think 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:45.480 about that, you know, So you know, is there a 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:48.280 net net in terms of tariff policy that you think 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.760 is actually good for the US economy, good for US growth, 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:54.440 versus that which is not. 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.520 It seems reasonable that a certain that certain numbers of 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:00.960 a certain number of tariffs that are sort of targeted 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:04.880 and specific are reasonable for certain things, for products or 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:08.640 industries that are important to national security, for instance, And 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:11.560 that's the way tariffs have been used in the past 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:13.480 for the most part. Again, what we're trying to draw 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:16.200 a distinction here is between that sort of targeted tariff, 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:19.720 which is trying to achieve a specific goal like protecting 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:23.920 a crucial industry or even protecting jobs in certain industries, 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:27.800 and these sort of blanket tariffs on everything that's important. 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:31.680 And again, policymakers have a tough job. Actually we should 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:34.800 always remember that that they have to weigh against different 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:35.880 goals against one another. 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:37.720 So you can protect jobs by. 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:42.040 Raising tariffs on industries that face foreign competition, and those 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:45.160 industries will be protected, but consumers will then pay more 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:47.960 what's better, what's more important. I mean, that's a political 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.520 decision and has to be made, but it's at least 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.280 i'd say better to make it on a sort of 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.400 individual basis rather than a blanket basis saying like in 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:59.480 all cases it's better to protect an American industry. 0:07:59.880 --> 0:08:01.040 Just not always true. 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:03.400 I don't think certainly that's not the way voters have 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:05.320 viewed it. And I think that's something to really come 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:08.160 back to, is that when we had really high tariffs 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.440 in like the nineteenth century, they were deeply unpopular and 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:14.040 they actually produced the modern income tax. We would not 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.200 have a modern income tax if we hadn't had high 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:17.320 tariffs first. 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:21.240 And that modern income tax has been has come down 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:25.640 in many tax brackets over the years. Speaking of that, 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:28.920 I'm wondering if you have done any analysis about at 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:33.440 the time at the organization about how much would be 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:39.079 raised through tariffs versus if the twenty seventeen Tax Cuts 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:41.160 and Jobs Act were to be extended. 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:44.960 Well, you know, lots of people have tried to estimate 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:46.840 this how much these tariffs are going to bring in. Again, 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:49.280 it's a little hard because the details are pretty sketchy, 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.079 but there are a lot of credible estimates out there 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:53.640 that say that these tariffs are going to bring in 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:55.280 the Trump is talking about are going to bring in 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:58.080 something like two point eight trillion dollars over ten years, 0:08:58.080 --> 0:08:59.440 which sounds like a lot of money. 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:01.640 Accept that prope. 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:04.960 Also promises to extend the twenty seventeen tax cuts, and 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:08.360 that's going to cost about four trillion dollars, so and 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:11.199 compared to the income tax, two point eight trillion. 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:11.959 Dollars is not a lot. 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:15.000 Actually, over that same ten year period, the income tax 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:18.840 is going to raise thirty four trillion dollars. So they 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:21.800 these high terriffs will raise a lot of money. But 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.040 they're not they're not some magic They're not going to 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:25.880 pay for all the tax cuts. They're not going to 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:28.960 pay for new tax cuts like the tax on tips 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:32.040 or the salt exemption, well anything like that. 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:34.120 Like you say, you know, devil in the details and 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:36.760 more to be known in terms of what the administration does. 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:40.239 Joseph Thorndike, director of the Tax History Project at Tax Analysts. 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:41.199 This is Bloomberg. 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:43.480 I don't know if you caught this yesterday. I know 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.240 Carol did because she was probably watching Bloomberg tvor listening to. 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:49.320 Bloomberg Radio kind of always am Yeah. 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:51.679 On Monday, President like Donald Trump threatened to fire federal 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:54.000 employees who don't come back to the office. He said 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:56.640 he would go to court to challenge a Biden administration 0:09:56.760 --> 0:10:01.000 labor contract that locked in remote work arrangements for thousands 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:01.800 of federal employees. 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:02.400 Here's what he said. 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.080 Yeah, if people don't come back to work, come back 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:07.160 into the office, they're going to be dismissed. This was 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:09.640 at a press conference yesterday in Palm Beach. 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:11.480 All right, we are so curious what our next guest 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.680 has to say about this and more. Laura Gasner Auning. 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.800 She has spent more than two decades in human resources 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:21.359 helping create AmeriCorps, and has written two books, including Limitless, 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:23.840 How to Ignore Everybody, Carve your own path, and Live 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:27.160 your best life. She joins us from Boston on this Tuesday. Laura, 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:29.280 nice to have you here on Bloomberg Business Week. We 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.559 want to start with that. You know, it's so interesting 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.480 coming off the pandemic. It was amazing how much work, 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:37.520 including all of us or many of us who did 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:41.600 broadcast from our homes TV and radio, how much we 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:45.240 could get done in terms of work while the global 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.880 pandemic was happening. There was a real rethink saying, wait 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.720 a minute, we have flexibility as workers. Well, lo and behold. 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.000 Here we are in twenty twenty four and everybody, including 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.120 the president elect, is rethinking this. How do you see 0:10:57.120 --> 0:11:00.320 the way forward when it comes to be in the 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.480 office versus working at home. 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:06.240 So I spent twenty years in executive search, and for 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:08.560 fifteen of those years I ran my own company, which 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:10.839 was a remote company, like back. 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:12.520 Before COVID was remote cool. 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.640 I'm very pro remote work, and at the same time, 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.280 I think being in the office is super important. Frankly, 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.240 we all learned during the pandemic that we could do 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:25.200 our work from home, but managers didn't learn how to 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:28.080 manage us when we were at home, and so a 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.480 lot of us have seen stagnation in our careers. We've 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.480 seen stagnation in our growth, both personal and professional, because 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:35.440 we haven't been in the office. The tools that we 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:37.600 use to log in from our cubicle are the same 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:39.960 tools that we use to log in from our living rooms, 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:43.120 but the management tools they kind of remain the same, 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.480 and so a lot of bosses they don't see you working, 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:48.280 they don't see you working, and so I think the 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:50.960 path forward is going to be at least in some 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.800 way hybrid. There's going to be at least some return 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.400 to work, and probably more and more returning to work 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:56.880 over time. 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:58.040 Do you think that we'll go ahead? 0:11:58.040 --> 0:11:58.240 Got? 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:01.000 But so you're saying it's a manager's problem. 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:03.120 Well, I think if the managers are the ones who 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:05.080 are making a decision about your career, then it's all 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:05.840 of our problems. 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.480 Do you think the federal government employees should have a 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:13.720 similar policy as to other employees employers? I mean, I 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.080 know that it is hard. It is a challenge for 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:19.520 the federal government to find employees when competing with the 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:22.440 private sector. The pay is definitely not as good and 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:25.959 you're working for the government, I mean in their stability, 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.199 but there's also frustration that comes with that. Do you 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:33.040 think it's so I what do you think I do? 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:35.199 And it's interesting because I did actually work for the 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:38.240 federal government, as you mentioned, having created AmeriCorps, being part 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:41.280 of the team early in my career. So I would 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:43.040 challenge one of the things that you said, which is 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.719 that it's not as competitive because the pay isn't as good. 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:49.000 I know from the time that I was in executive 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:52.240 search that pay is something that attracts people to their jobs, absolutely, 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.280 but they are also things like what's the mission of 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:57.319 the organization? Am I inspired by the leader? How broad 0:12:57.320 --> 0:12:59.000 are the skills I'm going to learn, How deep is 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:01.120 the impact I'm going to make, how prestigious will look 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:04.720 on my resume? Where's the job located, what's the commute like? 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.040 What kinds of benefits will I get? How stable is 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.640 the job? So there are lots of things that excite 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:12.040 and inspire and engage people in the work that they do, 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.760 and money is one of them. But at any age 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.880 and at any life stage, it's not the primary one 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:21.240 all the time. And in fact, we did an assessment, 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:24.480 a survey that we have ten thousand responses from seventy 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:27.200 four different countries from before, during, and now as we've 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.960 come out of the pandemic, every possible demographic, in every 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:32.600 possible industry, and I'll tell you that thirty six point 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.960 seven percent say money is the most important factor that 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:37.960 lets them know whether or not they are happy and 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.160 fulfilled in their job. But that means there's a whole 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:42.000 lot of people for whom money is not the. 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:42.719 Most important thing. 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:44.440 So it may be that people who are working for 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.600 the federal government have other things that are more interesting 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:47.360 and exciting to them. 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.920 All right, let's get to something that we kind of tease, 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:52.320 and this is revenge quitting. I'm asking about you know, 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:54.400 what's going on in the labor market. We've got a 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:57.000 FED meeting FED decision tomorrow. The number of vacancies per 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.800 unemployed worker. It's a ratio that the FED watches closely. 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.280 Was little change at one point one, in line with 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:04.800 pre pandemic levels. That it's peak in twenty twenty two, 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:07.240 the ratio is two to one. I mean, we watch 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:11.320 things like job openings and the quit rate to god 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:13.559 and get an idea of where we are. Who's got 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:16.320 the upper edge? Is it companies or is it workers? 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:19.960 Right now? How do you see that environment. 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:23.360 We're in a pretty low and we're in a pretty 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:27.360 low unemployment rate right now, so it really is the 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.200 employees market. I saw some studies the other day that 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.120 said that half of all workers are thinking about looking 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.480 for a new job in twenty twenty five, and at 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:38.520 least a third of them are already looking. So they're 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.960 using this holiday period to network and to have conversations 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:44.280 with people their nearest and dearest to just talk about 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:45.320 what might be next for them. 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:46.760 So I think that we're going to see a lot 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:48.000 of change in the new year. 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:50.560 And the revenge quitting, I mean, you know, some of 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:53.080 it comes down to companies saying that the people have 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:55.560 to go back to work, and employees thinking, well, I've 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:59.080 been just as productive, and so once they start looking around, right, 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.240 should you quit the before you have the next job? 0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:03.080 I would say no, I think that's a bad idea, 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:04.720 But there are pros and cons that. 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:05.080 Of course. 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:08.040 But for those people who are revenge quitting out of emotion, 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:10.760 right out of spite, maybe they didn't get the bonus 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:12.800 they wanted, or they didn't get enough of the bonus 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:13.760 that they were expecting. 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:15.640 Maybe they're being asked to go back to work. 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.760 Maybe their boss didn't recognize them enough in this past year. 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:20.480 They don't feel like they were really seen for what 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:23.160 they for what they brought to the to the organization. 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.080 Those people are revenge quitting, and as they start to 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.240 look around, they may realize that the grass isn't as 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:30.760 green on the other side, because maybe some of those 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:33.600 companies are also asking their employees to come back or 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:35.760 having the same issues with some of their toxic culture. 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:37.760 So when you're ticked off and you do revenge quitting, 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:39.400 you might want to you know, slow down and kind 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:41.400 of think, right, Like, I mean, you're saying that somebody 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:45.680 who does this, maybe you understand why, but nonetheless they 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.080 might be doing so and finding that wait, they might 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:49.200 not get a job so quickly. 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:55.000 On the other side, absolutely, I mean, so I think 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:57.760 we have to really remember that. You know, if you're 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:00.000 going to spend an hour or two hours interviewing a candidate, 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:01.680 you're probably going to spend five to six to seven 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:03.240 or ten referencing them. 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:04.440 So who are you going to reference? 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.360 Who are you going to call the previous employer? And 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.400 you know, if you burn that bridge, you're kind of 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:11.440 sins yourself. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:11.680 Along the way. 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:15.560 I didn't know that people spent That's how long it 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:19.320 took to do this, like for you know, on the 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:22.040 HR side, to actually find a candidate to check references. 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:24.200 I mean that's pretty remarkable. 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:25.600 Hey, what about the. 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:30.440 Economy and to what extent people rage quitting or jumping 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.320 from job to job depends on the labor market out there. 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:37.360 What is what is your experience told you about how 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.320 this might not happen if there aren't jobs available. 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:44.800 I think it has more to do with people's optimism 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.320 and the news that they're following. So, you know, it 0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:48.840 used to be that we would all get the same 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:51.560 economic numbers, and now, depending on what news you're listening to, 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.160 you're hearing different takes on the economy. So if you're 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:57.320 hearing news that says everything's optimistic and the economy is 0:16:57.360 --> 0:16:59.280 going to grow, you may be more likely to quit 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:00.680 because you think there's going to be a ton of 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.480 opportunities out there. If you're listening to news that's saying 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:06.960 we're all in trouble and everything is falling apart, you 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:08.560 might want to hold on to your job because you're 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:10.800 a little bit more worried about this. So it's really 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.359 interesting to think about whether it's the economy people are 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:15.840 listening to or which version of the economy they're listening 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:16.520 to right now. 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:19.280 Hey, I do wonder, Laura. We spend a lot of 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:23.040 time every day, certainly today, talking about the new administration 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:25.720 and the types of polies policies that might come down 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:29.400 from Donald Trump and his team, and whether it's taxes, tariffs, 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.840 whether it's electric vehicles, whether it's power. I mean, there's 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.600 just so many things that could potentially be impacted. So 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:39.080 when you think about policies that might be coming, we 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:42.959 talk a lot about maybe less regulatory oversight, less regulations 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:46.360 and rules for corporations. Does that mean do you anticipate 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:48.879 that in a Trump White House that we're going to 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:53.040 see companies and businesses more in charge with the upper 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:55.679 hand versus labor and employees. 0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:58.280 I absolutely do. 0:17:58.359 --> 0:17:59.800 And I think we're going to see a lot of 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.800 growth in certain industries. So certainly construction, I think green jobs, 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:06.239 I think energy on either side, I think we're going 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:06.639 to see that. 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.320 Certainly in food distribution. 0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:12.480 We're going to see differences in the regulatory environment for 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:13.440 food as well. 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:15.359 Healthcare is going to change. 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:21.040 So every industry that's had regulation that's been weighing down 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.119 on it, that's cost that it has to deal with 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.320 dealing with all the regulation, And if they don't have 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:26.920 to deal with that, that's all going to go into 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:29.280 building and growing and scaling, and that's going to translate 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:30.479 to labor and more jobs. 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:33.159 Well, are you so sure it's the net though, is 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:37.359 more jobs. I'm just also wondering about automation, right and 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:39.600