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Ime 24 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network Thursday, 25 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 1: numbers have been moving a little bit for the conference 26 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: championship games in the a f C in the NFC 27 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: between the Bengals and the Chiefs and the Rams and 28 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: the Niners. Certainly, if numbers haven't been moving, opinions have 29 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 1: been solidifying. We're gonna break it all down. Me and 30 00:01:55,120 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: my BFF, Mikempadre and my companion, Mr. Professional Better Simon Hunter. Yeah, 31 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: it's always better sweet, but it's like it's starting to 32 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: set in now. We only got three games left. I 33 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: love it. This is the best football, but it's I'm 34 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: gonna miss it all. The other day, I was I 35 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 1: don't know, probably slicing or smashing an avocado, or you know, 36 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 1: getting some macadamia nuts in a bowl or whatever it is. 37 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 1: I thought to myself it was a little bit winsome 38 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: because I thought, there's not another Monday night football game 39 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: until September. It's amazing how long we go without football. 40 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: It is, but it's also amazing how long the season is. 41 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: Like I was looking at our shows. We started doing 42 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,359 Speaker 1: like I think in July, we started doing like divisions, 43 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,080 Speaker 1: and it's just crazy to think it's it's about to 44 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: be February. It's it's crazy how football now. It's it's 45 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: twelve months out of the year. They're like, again, we 46 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: joke we're going to the off season. Chad knows there 47 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: really is no off season for football. It's a joke 48 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: with Matt Mitchell. I have three phones. Who has three phones? 49 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: Just football betters? Because just I got a phone for 50 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: my life, I got a phone for other professionals. I 51 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,519 Speaker 1: have a phone now for runners. It's like the way 52 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: it is now, it's just crazy how much goes on 53 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,959 Speaker 1: in the off season. Like like we talked last week 54 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: about the draft. That's probably one of the bigger things 55 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 1: going on with pros right now. Pros are getting ready 56 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: for the draft. So it's just it's just never anybody 57 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna miss the games for sure. Well let's 58 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: get to it, man. Normally, we do sharp calls where 59 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: we get some feedback from the other professional betters who 60 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: have listened to the show on Tuesday and have called 61 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 1: you and said, they hate what we're saying. They love 62 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: what we're saying. There's only two games, so instead of 63 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: sort of going directly into sharp calls, let's just assume 64 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: everything is a sharp call. The first game, the Bengals 65 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. This is this game is fascinating right 66 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: now because it's it's sitting on seven. I bet the 67 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: Bengals at seven and a half. There was one book 68 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: as of this morning that still has seven and a 69 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: half legal book, Uh not Fandel, So I won't name 70 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: it specifically. I'm like, I gotta take the Bengals at 71 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: this point. I'm even inclined to take the Bengals at seven. 72 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: The more I'm thinking about it, the more it's shaping 73 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: up like right spot, right matchup, right offense against the 74 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 1: right defense to be able to keep this game close. Well, 75 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 1: I saw that your old set employee, John, who works 76 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: for a said book you just talked about put out 77 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: there that over sixty percent of the money the bets 78 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 1: right now at that book is on the Bengals. So 79 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: it could be once again we talked about the seven 80 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: a half. Maybe it's just because of that, but they 81 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: haven't moved. They're getting all that money, Chad, and they 82 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 1: haven't moved. So talked to a bunch of pros. Of course, 83 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: they love the Dogs this weekend, Like I knew. I 84 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 1: knew coming into it that I was gonna be an 85 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: island again. We talked last week the pros. I loved 86 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: the Bills. They love them, they really really did. And 87 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: I took big bets. I sent out big bets for 88 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: the Bills. I sent out really big bets with the 89 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: Bucks too. They had a tough weekend last week, a 90 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: lot of these, so I'm not as scary as I 91 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: usually am when I'm talking to really legit pros and 92 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 1: they're like on the other side of me. I've looked 93 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: a couple that like the Chiefs as well, Like they 94 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: kind of view it from same point as me. It's 95 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: like we have a once in a generation talent my 96 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: homes and he just does not let us down, like 97 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: in these positions at home, doesn't let us down. And 98 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: I I really do believe. Again, I don't want to 99 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: shoot on the Bengals because it's been an unreal year, 100 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 1: Like this is an incredible run, but what are we 101 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: doing here? It's like they beat their car on short 102 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: rest at home and Derek car could have tied the 103 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: game slash one at the very end of that game. 104 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: They just beat Tennessee on the road against Tennessee team. 105 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: That what they put up nineteen points to beat Tennessee 106 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: like a lot. Like again, I keep talking about things 107 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 1: break your way. It's been great for the Bengals, and 108 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: that's why I don't want to shoot on them two 109 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: hard because I could see a way they could win 110 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: this game. Again, They've already beaten this Chiefs, this Chief's team. 111 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: But me and Chad joked about during the season that 112 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: was at home and they were getting every little call 113 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: they needed, like oh, thirty and fifteen p I on 114 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, like just kept working out for them, where 115 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: the Chiefs just did nothing that second half. Again, they 116 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: put up three points total in the second half against 117 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: this Bengals defense. So a lot of pros I've talked 118 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: to they think that the Bengals defense is better than 119 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: people give them credit for. And that's all fine and good, 120 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: but I I told you last week, it really pissed 121 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: me off when people talk about these defenses when it's 122 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: like it's my homes. It's not your defense that's gonna 123 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: win you these matchups against my Homes. At your offense, 124 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 1: you need to outscore him and then somehow get a 125 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: turnover against him. So I had nothing to change, buddy, Like, 126 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: if you're giving me seven, I'm still gonna take it. 127 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: I get why you're taking the seven half. I know 128 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: a bunch of the pros have taken the seven half, 129 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: but I am starting to feel more and more comfortable 130 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: taking this Chief's team, knowing that so much Bangal money 131 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: is coming in, like people are betting them that's gonna 132 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: become a public dog. It's like last week with the Bills. 133 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,359 Speaker 1: If you were getting my homes, not with the public 134 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: at home, you're probably a good good value on that line. 135 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: Let me play massive Devil's advocate, because a lot of 136 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: what you were talking about is Bengals winning. I don't 137 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: need the Bengals to win, and seven and a half 138 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 1: or seven just feels like a huge number, even with 139 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, because it's not like the Chiefs have been 140 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: blowing people out this year, and we know that their 141 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: record when they've been big favorites over the past couple 142 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: of years has not been very good. And what we 143 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: love about Mahomes. What scares us about Mahomes is when 144 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: he is a short favorite betting against him like we 145 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: did with the Bills, but a big favorite in a 146 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: game with a quarterback across the line who it's pretty unfazed, 147 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: who's got explosive playmakers going against a defense that we 148 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: talked about as as it's improved talking about the Chiefs, 149 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: but they're not good. They're not because h Allen just 150 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: carved him up. Guy. They haven't been good all year 151 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: whenever they've played, whenever they've played a good team. If 152 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: you look at Justin Herbert covering him up, look at 153 00:07:56,640 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: Teddy fucking Bridgewater covering them up in that goes Gate. 154 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: It hasn't been one of those things where they're able 155 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: to blow teams out. Do you remember the name of 156 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: the backup for the Jets. Yeah, he was that guy. 157 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: He had like that guy, like the guy who everyone 158 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: got off. He was like the current Warner for a week. 159 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: I mean, if you're gonna shoot on the Chiefs defense 160 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: like the bangals over here, ain't really They didn't really 161 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: set the world on fire. And that's me says Okay, 162 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: Then then the play doesn't necessarily mean it's not a 163 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: side play. It's probably an over I just think I'm 164 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 1: looking at this and thinking more and more, we're just 165 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,080 Speaker 1: gonna be an opposite side of this. I guess, yeah, 166 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 1: that's great, great for me. Um, I don't know that 167 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: it is, although I do think it's pretty possible. I 168 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: took the Bengals plus seven in scoot Roulette and the Chiefs. 169 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: Did I take the Chiefs? Damn? It's all good. I know. 170 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: You get out there, you listen to your other shows, 171 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: you hear other opinions, and it was just like last 172 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 1: week I had to beg you to take the fourty 173 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: niners on Saturday, I'm a beg you again to take 174 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: this number that was entirely different. That was entirely different 175 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: because I didn't have a strong opinion on that one. 176 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: Where I I am developing an opinion. And by the way, 177 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: it's only on the hook at seven, I have less 178 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: of an opinion at seven and a half. I feel 179 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 1: like that's just sort of the advantage. No, it's fair. Again, 180 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: It's just it's a key number. But I just think 181 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: it's a sharp like, not a sharp trap, but it's 182 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: just a trap like they're gonna the public loves Joe Burrow. 183 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: You're gonna see Joe cool tweets all week. How this 184 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: guy is dominated teams above five dres since his college 185 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 1: career and this is the run of Joe Burrow making 186 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: it to the super Bowl. I'm I just don't want 187 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: to shoot on too much because I want this to happen, 188 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: Like none of us want another Brady dynasty like my homes. 189 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: I love them a home story, but yes, the better 190 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: story is Joe Burrow moving on. I just think their 191 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 1: second yend, Like who else is gonna bet in minus 192 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 1: seven and a half with this Chief's team. It feels 193 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 1: like very few of us will be taking that number 194 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: just because it's more pill taking the seven and a 195 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: half plus. It's never fun where it's like, okay, now 196 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: we need two scores again. That's the that's the key 197 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: number about seven and a half. That's two scores. That's 198 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 1: just not a touchdown. So I can't fault you chat 199 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: for being sucked in. But that's how the books do it. 200 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 1: That get you with those numbers. You know, you say 201 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 1: it as if like I'm being a sucker and I'm 202 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: a square. The Bengals are pent the square butt at 203 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,319 Speaker 1: seven and a half, talking about it as if it's 204 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 1: a win and there's a narrative. I'm only looking at 205 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: the number, the hook and the opportunity. I'm just saying 206 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: it's gonna be way different if they're down twenty at halftime, 207 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,679 Speaker 1: not at home, if they're on the road at Arrowhead 208 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: like they were last time. It's tough. That's a tough 209 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: number to take. That's just why, Like I've had so 210 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: many pros reach out to me. It's like I hear you, 211 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: like it feels like this weekend is very easy. You 212 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: take a seven and a half of the Bengals and 213 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 1: you take the three and a half of the forty niners, 214 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: and it's my job to take a step back and 215 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: be like, what are we really doing here? We gotta 216 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 1: watch the line movement and that one book, but that 217 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: we cannot mention. That's weird that they're getting a ton 218 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: of money on this seven a half and they're just 219 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 1: letting it sit there like that is very weird because 220 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: most books have moved it at this point because they 221 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: got the Bengals money. Now they're happy to take Chiefs money, 222 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: where this one book has just been sitting there all 223 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: week just taking tons and tons and tons of Bengals money. Well, 224 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: if the line keeps moving and it potentially moves off 225 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: the six and the seven, and it gets the six 226 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 1: and a half, then I'll play the chief six and 227 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:25,599 Speaker 1: a half and I'll get a middle that would be 228 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: amazing if you hit that middle, you know, or I'll 229 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: bid it live. There's ways to get out of this, 230 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: like right now. But but to me, every scenario about 231 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: this plays out with the Bengals having an opportunity to cover. 232 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: They can be down fourteen with a minute and a 233 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: half left and carve up the chief secondary and score 234 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: that touchdown. It's just this is not too like it 235 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: was against the Bills. It is seven and a half. 236 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: There's too much in play for that number. I like 237 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: the bank that Chiefs have to be winning by three 238 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: touchdowns for this late in the fourth quarter for this 239 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: number not to be in play. That's what I'm trying 240 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: to say to you, is that like they're they're getting you, 241 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:10,839 Speaker 1: that this is like a kind of get your kind 242 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 1: of number where they know what they're doing. These books 243 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: know what they're doing, and like I look at this 244 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: number and I can already tell it's you probably have 245 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: a less than forty chance if I even if I 246 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,199 Speaker 1: run the model of covering this number, just in the 247 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: simple fact that it's too easy. If they're down fourteen, 248 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: all you need a touchdown chat and you're gonna be 249 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 1: covering against the Chiefs, which we know. People watch last week. 250 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: They saw this Chief's defense give up a ton of yards. 251 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: They remember the last time these two teams played in 252 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: Broth turn all over the field. They know what they're doing. Buddy, 253 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: I'm telling you they're sucking in it. Just the more 254 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: I've talked to others pros, the more I've looked at 255 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: this number, it just feels like such a trap. Live 256 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: and learn. Well, guess what you got. You and I 257 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: are going to be on opposite side of this one. Good, 258 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes. I'm gonna make that my 259 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: big ball is better than the week than Chiefs. Oh, 260 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:58,599 Speaker 1: well you probably you probably should. Yeah, it feels like 261 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 1: I'm gonna been in Island again with this easteam like 262 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: everywhere you pro is gonna take the Bengals. So the 263 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: big balls better the week. Simon, We've never done this before. 264 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: We've never differed on a big balls better the week. 265 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: But you're on the Chiefs and I'm on the Bengals. 266 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: It's not gonna work out for you. I just think 267 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 1: the difference is I want to be on the Bengals 268 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: at seven and a half. I'll take the Chiefs minus 269 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 1: ten if that makes you feel better. That's how confident 270 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: I am in this Chief's number. Wow. Yeah, I think 271 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 1: it's a bad number. This number just stinks to me, 272 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: like again like six or six and six and a half, 273 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 1: that's what I mean. I like, I just see what 274 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 1: the books doing here. It's a trap, Like it's bad. 275 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: If all of a sudden come this weekend apes on 276 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: the money and apes and the tickets is on the Chiefs, 277 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: You're you've hit a home run chat like you've literally 278 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 1: nailed this number. But just watching the line movement, seeing 279 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 1: that betting public is coming from, it's like I feel 280 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 1: like they're sucking me in because I know I want 281 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:54,719 Speaker 1: to take the Bengals. I told you, I think it's 282 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: a good number for the Bengals, and it's like they 283 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: know what they're doing, Like the public has shifted so 284 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 1: much for some reason, they just don't like the Chiefs. 285 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: Even though we just saw the Chiefs doing something we've 286 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: ever seen before. The public is still betting this Bengals 287 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 1: team just because they think they're getting such a good number. 288 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: Of the money is on the Bengals. Of the bets 289 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: are on the Chiefs. That's not one book like you name, 290 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: it's consensus. So you truly are on an island in 291 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 1: this one. It's a good place to be with my homes. Buddy, 292 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: You'll learn, Baby, you'll learn. Don't don't fucking talk to 293 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: me that way. I've been doing this for twenty years. 294 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: I've been in the game. You're a Johnny come Lately. 295 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: You were fucking eleven when I was doing this. Yeah, 296 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: but who has three cell phones? And who has one? Chat? 297 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: I only need one because I'm not. I'm not tied 298 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: to so many people, all right. I own my time, 299 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: I own my destiny. You gotta like you know, you're 300 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: working for people. I don't work for anybody. But I 301 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: also have probably more underlings than you, and you own 302 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: a run a company, so it's a little different. As 303 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: I just said, I just came out of a budget 304 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: meeting with our CFO and our CEO mapping out like, 305 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: here's what we've got to spend blah blah blah. And 306 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: at some point they said something and I said, throughout 307 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: my career, my only job manage myself out, find enough 308 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: smart people that I become irrelevant, and if they gotta 309 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: fire me, they gotta fire me. So I don't want 310 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: the underlinks. I am looking to get people like Matt Mitchell, 311 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 1: who are so good at their job that I don't 312 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: even have to ask questions. They just tell me what 313 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 1: they're doing, and I'm like, sounds like a good idea. 314 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: I can't confirm that this has been the strategy as 315 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 1: I've witnessed it. Yeah, sounds good to me, and we 316 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: can just saying real quick, we both liked you over right. 317 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: I think we have to probably gonna be five to one, 318 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: six to one the money coming in on it, but 319 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: I just touched on it. We don't think the Chief's 320 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: defense is that good, and I don't think that Bengals 321 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: defense is that good. So even if it's like last game, 322 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: it's only got forty points headed into the fourth quarter, 323 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: we might see another thirty points, twenty one points in 324 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. So I love these kind of overs. 325 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: You're never really out of it. Yeah, this could get ugly. 326 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: The NFL playoffs are in full gear and everyone can 327 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: get in on the action with a risk free bet 328 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: on FanDuel sports Book. It doesn't matter if you are 329 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: new to FanDuel or already have an account. All customers 330 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: get up to ten dollars back if you're same game 331 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: parlay doesn't win. Same game parlays let you combine multiple 332 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: bets from one matchup for a big payoff. You can 333 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: combine bets on the money line, point spread, player stats, 334 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: and so much more. 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In Michigan 359 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight eight nine eight nine, 360 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. 361 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Niners and the rams. 362 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,360 Speaker 1: I am shocked, Simon. We talked about this on Tuesday. 363 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: This number still hanging a fucking meat ball out at 364 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: three and a half. What are the books doing? What 365 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: are the pros doing? Why is it not moving? Well? 366 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 1: I think we touched on it like pros. The pros 367 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: eren on the Rams a lot of them the preseason, 368 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: bet them for the Super Bowl. They bet him again 369 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: the start of the playoffs, and they just liked this team. 370 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,640 Speaker 1: Where there's a bunch of us that we bought into 371 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 1: the four Niners head into the playoffs, We've bet them 372 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: every round and we've taken their money line and we're 373 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: we're right there still with them. It's it's more interesting 374 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,640 Speaker 1: to me that the public is on the Rams as well, 375 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 1: where I don't know. I guess maybe Jimmy did look 376 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: that bad against Green Bay, but it's like sod Aaron Rodgers. 377 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 1: It's a lot to do with the weather, the conditions, 378 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: like what they're playing with. Um, yeah, green green Bay's 379 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: defense is pretty good, and I'm shocked at the public. 380 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 1: I just bought into Stafford and I gave about a 381 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 1: stat that it was UM teams that are two and 382 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: oh against UH teams during the regular season in the 383 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: playoffs are fourteen and seven. I looked it up. They 384 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 1: are three and five on the road and that's said matchupup. 385 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 1: So if you're going off those little trends, that does 386 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 1: typically goes towards the RAMS team. But the more film 387 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 1: I break down about when these teams match up, it's 388 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: just Shanahan really does have mcveigh's number um defensively and offensively. 389 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: Damiko Ryan's last time they played, he really took away 390 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: what the team wants to do in this RAMS team, 391 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 1: which is get the ball downfield to Cooper, Cup and 392 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: Odell like they like throwing it from fifteen to twenty five, 393 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: Like that's that's Stafford's happy place, and and they ran 394 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 1: a really nice zone against that, and it just didn't work. 395 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: And I'm coming back and looking at this number, and 396 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 1: like Chad just said, why the hell is it still 397 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: setting on three and a half. Maybe they just need 398 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: to need more for Niners money and because so much 399 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: more money and tickets have coming on the Rams. But 400 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: I don't get it either, buddy. It's like literally making 401 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 1: me scared because I just think we're getting such a 402 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 1: good number. It's the same thing with that Bengal seven 403 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 1: and a half. It's like it's a really good number. 404 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 1: But I love this one so which wore this FOURT 405 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: niners team because I can just see this being such 406 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 1: a close, slug it out kind of game. With these 407 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: two teams match up so well with one another, you 408 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 1: know exactly what each each team wants to do. Again, 409 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 1: we've heard the stat these six and oh Shane their 410 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: last six meetings against McVeigh. I'm getting three and a half. 411 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,239 Speaker 1: The public likes the Rams, the betting, the money, The 412 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: pros like the Rams, love it, Chad Love love love 413 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: love the fours again in this position, I'll take their 414 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: money line just because I I do believe they will win. 415 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,439 Speaker 1: But the three and a half, that's the bet right there, Like, 416 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 1: that's such a good key number. Hoping we would get 417 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 1: the four, maybe more big money would come in on 418 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: this Ramps team, but it hasn't happened yet. So you know, 419 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: if you've already grabbed the three and a half, just waits. 420 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 1: Maybe you'll be able to get that four if more 421 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 1: money this weekend comes in on this number. Because I 422 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: do believe this is the second game, So my kickoff 423 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: it could be up to you for for this four 424 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,360 Speaker 1: nine team. Yeah, it's fascinating I mean the truth. There's 425 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: a lot of the logic you're giving me about the 426 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: Niners applies to the Bengals. The only thing we have 427 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 1: here is a significantly larger set of data by which 428 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 1: to examine this game. And everything you said about McVeigh 429 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:41,479 Speaker 1: and Shanahan is true. The stats all bear it out. 430 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,360 Speaker 1: This is a team that against each other, I would 431 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 1: say home field is probably worth zero. So in reality 432 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: the Rams maybe should be power rated is one, if anything, right, 433 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 1: so I'll automatically getting two and a half points of value. Shanahan, 434 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 1: as we discussed eighteen and ten, is a really dog 435 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 1: seven and three against the spread against McKay four and 436 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,120 Speaker 1: oh as a dog against McVeigh the past two seasons, 437 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 1: six and oh the past three seasons, one all five 438 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,119 Speaker 1: games when he's been a dog the past three seasons. 439 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: Jimmy g this is great. I took this from Stucky 440 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast fifteen and four as a 441 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 1: dog fourteen and five straight up as a dog, best 442 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: winning percentage of any QB in the Super Bowl era 443 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: as a dog. And this is a question that I 444 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: think applies to the Bengals and also applies to Jimmy 445 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: G at what point does their ability to sort of 446 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,719 Speaker 1: win on flute plays or win by things that are 447 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: outside consistency or that are sort of variants that you 448 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: can't account for become something that you have to account for. 449 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: The Bengals keep winning these odd games based on freak 450 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,400 Speaker 1: things because Joe Burrow at the end of the game 451 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,240 Speaker 1: finds a way to get to Jamaar Chase and put 452 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 1: them in a position to keep it close. Jimmy ge 453 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 1: keeps winning in these odd games because he finds a 454 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: way to make the right play or gets put in 455 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,640 Speaker 1: a position to make the right play at the right time. 456 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 1: That's not something you can account for in the model. 457 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: It's just something you have to count for as the individual. 458 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: People don't give enough respect to my homes, Like this 459 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: is just different. This game Jimmy Geeve or Stafford's way 460 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: different than Joe Burrow versus my homes. It's like, what 461 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,160 Speaker 1: was it last year the Bills went to go play 462 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 1: against the Chiefs and they lost what was a thirty 463 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: eight to twenty and that ANFC title game last year. 464 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: It's like there's something about the first time getting that 465 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: we saw how Josh Allen was in that playoff game. 466 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 1: No fear that. That dude literally had zero fear in 467 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: that game this year against that Chiefs team because he 468 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: had been there, he had done that. Joe Burwin ever 469 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 1: been there, He ain't never done that. It's like a 470 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,719 Speaker 1: perfect storm where they got the nice matchups he had 471 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: to play. Derek Carr at home, played a sloppy game, 472 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 1: but did just enough got his confidence built that he 473 00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: went to that Tennessee game, got the shikicked out of 474 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 1: him and was able to put up nineteen points and 475 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 1: win like his like that's not gonna happen my homes 476 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 1: and throw in three picks like it's just a lot 477 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 1: of stuff is broken for this Bengals team. Where I 478 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: think it catches up nowhere. This four yars team feels 479 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,639 Speaker 1: like the Giants team of old they had. They have 480 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,679 Speaker 1: more sustainable things. They have the front four like the 481 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: Giants had that can put pressure on the quarterback. They 482 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 1: have the weapon in Debo like they had with Plaxico 483 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 1: or the running game with Jacobs that Giants team. It's 484 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,159 Speaker 1: like there's little things that relate where that old school 485 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: Giants team, which is you win with your front four, 486 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: you have a quarterback that you don't ask to do 487 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: too much, but it can be clutch in big moments 488 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 1: and coming into the playoffs. The reason I like the 489 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,120 Speaker 1: four nine so much was that win against the Rams. 490 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 1: That was a clutch drive and win by Jimmy. Jimmy 491 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,159 Speaker 1: was down seventeen less than two minutes to go. I 492 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,640 Speaker 1: think they're on their ten yard line. He fucking drove 493 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: that field on the road against that Rams team to 494 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: make the playoffs. And like, I want to shoot on 495 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: Jimy because Jimmy is what he is. He's inconsistent, he's 496 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: not gonna win you the games. But he's also been 497 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,160 Speaker 1: this quarterback that in big, big moments he's able put 498 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: his team in position to win the game, Like he 499 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: put Debot in that third and seven spot that run 500 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: that ball up the right and get that first down. 501 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 1: Like he just puts teams in the right position. It 502 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 1: gives them the right confidence. So yeah, I'm I'm I 503 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:13,679 Speaker 1: get what you're saying. That cha, that's why we keep 504 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 1: talking about the Bengals game. I can't fault you for 505 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,439 Speaker 1: liking that back door. It's like, that's a huge number 506 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 1: we've seen this chief defense give up plays touchdowns in seconds, 507 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 1: like Jamaar Chase can make the right round. He could 508 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: take it all way down the field and you're right 509 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: with like a minute ago, they could be down by 510 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: six or down by seven like and cover that number. 511 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,199 Speaker 1: So that's why I'm not gonna faulter that one. But 512 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 1: this one, the Rams, I don't see the logic and 513 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 1: taking this Rams number, taking the minus three and a half, 514 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,720 Speaker 1: it's a bad number. The Rams already good team, but 515 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:42,920 Speaker 1: they just don't match up well against this Foreigners team, 516 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 1: like some teams just match up really well. So I 517 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 1: hate fading a lot of pros. But that's There's a 518 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,920 Speaker 1: couple of games at this point, and kind of guys 519 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: love what they love, so guys love their Rams. I 520 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 1: make this line minus two Rams. I have them winning 521 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 1: by my system, but I don't think they're gonna win. 522 00:25:58,359 --> 00:25:59,959 Speaker 1: I do believe in this foreign Anders team to cover 523 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 1: or and win. I'm with you, Simon says, Bet the 524 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 1: Niners plus three and a half. That was our call 525 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 1: on Tuesday, no reason to change it today. Go go 526 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: for the gold, Go for the goal. Bet the Niners 527 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 1: plus three and a half. This is going to be 528 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: interesting because come Sunday, you and I are not going 529 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: to have the same records. Like I'm gonna be on 530 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,000 Speaker 1: the Bengals, You're gonna be on the Chiefs. We're both 531 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 1: gonna be on the Niners. Worst case we're both one 532 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: on one because we're both nothing changed for me on 533 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: the total either. I don't know about you. I still 534 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 1: I like the under. I think it's moved down again, 535 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:36,959 Speaker 1: it's down to four, it's down to forty six, But 536 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 1: still like it. Still like the under. Both these teams 537 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: will just know these both these offenses so well, I 538 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,880 Speaker 1: could just see it being kind of a field goal 539 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,199 Speaker 1: close match up kind of game. That's why I like 540 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 1: we talked about I think three and a half such 541 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,360 Speaker 1: an important number, feels like a field goal game. So 542 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 1: but again, if they touched all we down to forty three, 543 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: I'll start looking over because there's some key numbers. But 544 00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 1: right now, like like the under. All right, so we've 545 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: just scided that are big balls better? The week is 546 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: really just Simon's big balls better the week it's going 547 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: to be the Chiefs. The flip side is the big 548 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: balls better the week could be the Bengals plus seven 549 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: and a half because we're like going against each other 550 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 1: on that, So depending on who you believe in more 551 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 1: depending on whose logic and argument you believed in more 552 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 1: on this podcast, you the listener, your big balls better 553 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: the week is either the Bengals or the Chiefs putting 554 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: kids against their parents? Yead, how can you do this 555 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 1: to our things? I know, I feel terrible. People have 556 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: to choose. All right, Simon, we've done it. We've done 557 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 1: all we can do today. We'll be back on Tuesday, 558 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: and we'll know who was right who was wrong about 559 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Chiefs. We will have this conversation 560 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: on Sunday. I'm convinced me. At Action Network HQ previewing 561 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: the Conference title Games eleven a m. Eastern You, Chris Rabon, 562 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: Sean Kroner, Dan Ravel Samantha Pavidi on the news desk Unilse. 563 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 1: She wrote, today, huh am I saying anything, Matt Mitchell 564 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,640 Speaker 1: when I'm missing anything? Now, you just mentioned that it's 565 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 1: difficult to choose between your children in terms of picking 566 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: a favorite. I mean every parent knows that that's not true. 567 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 1: But beyond that, clean show, I didn't say it's difficult 568 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 1: to choose your favorite child. I say it's difficult to 569 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 1: choose who you're going to go with as a parent. 570 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: I mean, there is only one life, vest I feel 571 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: like we all know which one it would be. But hey, listen, 572 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: that's just splitting hairs. Why do I feel like you're 573 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: not going to choose me Between the two of you, 574 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: it's Chad because you'd be so much easier to carry 575 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: the safety bob. All right. This has been the favorites 576 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 1: from the Volume podcast Network, downloaded on Spotify, Apple Podcast, 577 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: where you can also rate review, give us five stars. 578 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 1: Say whatever you want, we don't care. We'll read the 579 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: meanest ones on air and to Tuesday, I love you.