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Speaker 1: Slash audio. All right, welcome to hoops tonight. You're at
Speaker 1: the volume. Happy Monday, everybody. Hope all of you guys
Speaker 1: are having a great start to your week. Well, we've
Speaker 1: made it to the NBA Finals. So today we're gonna
Speaker 1: start with our very basketball centric x's and O centric
Speaker 1: series preview. We're gonna do the same format we've been
Speaker 1: using for all our series. We'll talk about the season
Speaker 1: series and the regular season off the top. Then we'll
Speaker 1: talk about our gambling odds presented by DraftKings. We'll look
Speaker 1: at Indiana on offense, we'll look at Oklahoma City on offense,
Speaker 1: and then I will get to my prediction. You guys
Speaker 1: know the drill before we get started. Subscribed to Hoops
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Speaker 1: keep dropping mail back questions in our chats after our shows.
Speaker 1: Who can get to our mail bags throughout the remainder
Speaker 1: of the series. All right, let's talk some basketball. So
Speaker 1: the Thunder one the season series two to oh. The
Speaker 1: first game was back onto Zember twenty sixth. It was
Speaker 1: in Indiana, Indiana actually held a four point lead with
Speaker 1: a couple of minutes left. Those of you guys who
Speaker 1: hang out with us on playback, we actually rewatched the
Speaker 1: entire crunch time sequence of this particular game, and the
Speaker 1: Thunder just walked him down. Ja Dubb had a couple
Speaker 1: really nice attacks out of ball screens, one where he
Speaker 1: got a nifty kind like up and under a layup,
Speaker 1: another one where he drew a foul. Shay had a
Speaker 1: kind of a guard guard screen with case on Wallace.
Speaker 1: That's a big way that they look to attack Tyrese
Speaker 1: Haliburton when he was hiding on guards was just kind
Speaker 1: of having guards slip out of screens. When Haliburton hedges,
Speaker 1: they hit Kase on Wallace for another opportunity. He drew
Speaker 1: a fout and then Shake Gills Alexander hit this ridiculous
Speaker 1: hesitation pull up three off the top of the key
Speaker 1: while coinciding with a bunch of Oklahoma City stops on
Speaker 1: the other end of the floor, and they just walked
Speaker 1: the Pacers down and got a big win in Indiana.
Speaker 1: Their second matchup was much more recently on March twenty ninth,
Speaker 1: down in Oklahoma City, and the Thunder just blew him out.
Speaker 1: The Pacers jumped out to a little bit of an
Speaker 1: early lead. There's an interesting trend in this matchup where
Speaker 1: when Isaiah Hartenstein's on the floor, the Thunder just look
Speaker 1: a little bit slow and the Pacers are able to
Speaker 1: kind of get into the flow of their offense and
Speaker 1: cause some problems. But at the start of those games
Speaker 1: you'd see that bear out. Then they'd go a lot
Speaker 1: more small. Chet didn't play in either game, so we'd
Speaker 1: see very different versions of the Thunder later in games
Speaker 1: where they just kind of matched speed for speed and
Speaker 1: they were able to cause more problems for the Pacers.
Speaker 1: Now so worth mentioning. The Pacers went out to big
Speaker 1: leads in each game. They jumped out twenty two to
Speaker 1: seven in the December game, and they jumped up nineteen
Speaker 1: to nine in the March game. But again that kind
Speaker 1: of falls into that Hartenstein stuff. Very interesting on off
Speaker 1: splits with Isaiah Hartenstein in the regular season versus when
Speaker 1: he was off the floor. And as is always the
Speaker 1: case with the regular season, key players missed games for
Speaker 1: both teams right like Aaron E. Smith and Ben Matherin
Speaker 1: each missed the game. Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso each
Speaker 1: missed a game, and then Chet Holmgrin missed both games.
Speaker 1: And I think that's gonna be the interesting one because
Speaker 1: while Hartenstein caused problems on the defensive end for the Thunder,
Speaker 1: he also caused problems for the Pacers when the Thunder
Speaker 1: were on offense with his vertical spacing and ball screens,
Speaker 1: as they used a lot of at the level coverages
Speaker 1: and let the roller get behind. So Chet is theoretically
Speaker 1: the solution to both of those problems. A faster, more
Speaker 1: defensively versatile big that won't give you the issues that
Speaker 1: Hartenstein gives you on that end of the floor, but
Speaker 1: a legitimate vertical spacer who also can pick and pop,
Speaker 1: and that causes all sorts of problems. So obviously Chet
Speaker 1: missing both games is a huge deal, and it didn't
Speaker 1: matter as the Thunder went to another Our gambling odds again,
Speaker 1: all of our odds are presented by our partner, Draft Kings.
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is right now minus seven hundred on DraftKings
Speaker 1: to win the title. Feels are out right to me.
Speaker 1: I would be absolutely stunned if Indiana found a way
Speaker 1: to win this series. We're going to go through the
Speaker 1: specific pathway that exists for them to try to toe
Speaker 1: that line and somehow find a way to win this series.
Speaker 1: But I have a really hard time seeing it, and
Speaker 1: I think it's a particular tough personnel matchup for them,
Speaker 1: even above and beyond any talent differential that exists within
Speaker 1: this series. So to me, Oklahoma City being around minus
Speaker 1: seven hundred seems about right. There are other series where
Speaker 1: they had odds in the similar range where I felt like,
Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, that's right about where it was
Speaker 1: for the Denver matchup, And I'm like, Eh, this doesn't
Speaker 1: make sense to me. Like Denver clearly can cause some
Speaker 1: serious problems for the Thunder with Jokic and with all
Speaker 1: of their size and just their veteran experience, this to
Speaker 1: me feels like a more natural line for this type
Speaker 1: of matchup. Let's start with Indiana on offense. As far
Speaker 1: as matchups go, again, a lot of this depends on
Speaker 1: how Oklahoma City decides to start games. If they start Hartenstein,
Speaker 1: he'll guard Myles Turner, Chet will likely guard Pascal Siakam,
Speaker 1: j Doubill guard Andrew Nemhard, lou Dort will guard Tyrese Haliburton,
Speaker 1: and Shake Gildes Alexander will guard Aaron Nee Smith. A
Speaker 1: couple of specific things to keep an eye on there,
Speaker 1: Like Pascal Siakam in this matchup consistently in the regular season,
Speaker 1: was really aggressive downhill versus Oklahoma City's bigs, even Hartenstein.
Speaker 1: Obviously we're gonna talk about attacking Smalls. That's gonna be
Speaker 1: a big theme in this series. But if Chet guards Siakam,
Speaker 1: be ready to watch Siakam try to cave his chest
Speaker 1: in early and often in the series, like just aggressive
Speaker 1: drives from the top of the key where he sees
Speaker 1: Chet in front of him and he just tries to
Speaker 1: go through him and get all the way to the rim.
Speaker 1: That's something to keep an eye on. And then again
Speaker 1: Shay guarding Nie Smiths. Shay as a tendency to linger
Speaker 1: into the paint. He like basically operates as a roamer
Speaker 1: in the Oklahoma City defense. It's how he gets a
Speaker 1: lot of steals in a lot of cases. So obviously
Speaker 1: Aaron Nee Smith's ability to knock down catch and shoot
Speaker 1: threes and beat him crashing to the basket is key
Speaker 1: if they go small, and if they start Alex Caruso,
Speaker 1: I think we'll see check guard Myles Turner. Very different
Speaker 1: type of matchup obviously there. I think I'd go with
Speaker 1: Caruso on Siakam in that case, just because Caruso has
Speaker 1: had success in this playoff run dealing with Biggs. He
Speaker 1: had a little bit of a problem with Julius Randall
Speaker 1: in the first game of that series, and then then
Speaker 1: he just figured out that Julius Randl can't dribble and
Speaker 1: just attack the basketball and caused a lot of proper
Speaker 1: in that way. So I would just have Caruso guard
Speaker 1: Siakam if that's the case. He's just had a lot
Speaker 1: of success against those bigger forwards, including even Jokic briefly
Speaker 1: in that second round series. The rest of the matchups
Speaker 1: would be the same obviously, Loudord on Tyres Halliburton, shakil
Speaker 1: As Alexander on, Nie Smith and j dubb On injur
Speaker 1: and m Hard. But again, as it pertains to Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City in particular, even with like Keason Wallace coming in
Speaker 1: off the bench, Caruso coming in off the bench of
Speaker 1: Hartenstein starts Aaron Wiggins. All these guards are interchangeable, and
Speaker 1: they're all gonna spend a lot of time guarding a
Speaker 1: lot of different players. Both of these teams play in
Speaker 1: transition a ton, and so even talking about these matchups
Speaker 1: kind of comes with a certain amount of like, it
Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily matter as much as you would think, simply
Speaker 1: because so many of these situations are gonna involve transition
Speaker 1: cross matches. Again, transition cross match is pretty simple the
Speaker 1: principles and transition defense or stop the ball, protect the rim,
Speaker 1: then spray out to shooters. So it's not about guarding
Speaker 1: your man in that case, it's about guarding the nearest man, right,
Speaker 1: And so you're gonna see a lot of situations where
Speaker 1: dudes get cross match, and so everyone's going to kind
Speaker 1: of have to figure out how to guard in their
Speaker 1: respective random matchups that they end up in. In the
Speaker 1: regular season, Tyre's Halliburton was a non factor relative to
Speaker 1: other matchups. Tyrese is generally a low usage player because
Speaker 1: he's more of an advantage hunter than an assist hunter.
Speaker 1: The difference to me there is like Tyres Haliburton gets
Speaker 1: rid of the ball earlier than most people do, and
Speaker 1: it's usually when as soon as he sees the slightest
Speaker 1: bit of a mismatch, whichcuse me, not even mismatch, but
Speaker 1: advantage like this guy lingers in a little bit too
Speaker 1: far on a ball screen, leaving two on the ball,
Speaker 1: or this guy's sinking just a bit too far in
Speaker 1: in nail help, or this guy's open up the floor.
Speaker 1: Tyree's gets rid of the ball quickly. That leads to
Speaker 1: a lot more hockey assists and fewer regular assists. So
Speaker 1: even as a high assist player, his usage rate is
Speaker 1: relatively low because of how often he gets rid of
Speaker 1: the ball quickly in possessions. But even within that context,
Speaker 1: his usage plummets in this matchup. So for instance, Tyre's
Speaker 1: Halliburton has this like you know, offense engine only had
Speaker 1: a twenty one percent usage percentage in the regular season
Speaker 1: against the whole league, but that dropped all the way
Speaker 1: down to twelve percent against the Thunder. That's how uninvolved
Speaker 1: Tyrese Haliburton looked in this matchup, and that is We're
Speaker 1: going to get into it a little bit more later,
Speaker 1: but that's gonna be something Tyre's has to avoid in
Speaker 1: the sense that he needs to make sure that he
Speaker 1: remains a threat even when he's not involved in the action.
Speaker 1: The two starters for the Pacers that saw an increase
Speaker 1: in usage relative to what they did versus the rest
Speaker 1: of the league. Among their starters was andren Emhart. Obviously,
Speaker 1: that's not too hard to figure out. He's the next
Speaker 1: best ball handler in the lineup after Haliburton, and so
Speaker 1: if he's gonna end up running the show while Haliburton
Speaker 1: stands around, he's the obvious guy that slides into that spot.
Speaker 1: The second guy's Miles Turner, and it's not too hard
Speaker 1: to figure out that either, because of the switches that
Speaker 1: lead him that leave him in a lot of matchups
Speaker 1: with guards underneath the basket. Oklahoma City went small in
Speaker 1: this matchup quite a bit in the regular season. I
Speaker 1: consider going to chat at center small for the sake
Speaker 1: of this matchup because how skinny he is, and so
Speaker 1: Turner and Siakam, even a little bit of Thomas Bryant.
Speaker 1: Maybe just these guys, these bigger players, even obi topping
Speaker 1: a little bit, these guys attacking Smalls is gonna be
Speaker 1: arguably the biggest pivot point of the series, which we'll
Speaker 1: get into hearing a little bit. Everything starts with ball pressure.
Speaker 1: There are these pivot points I just talked about one
Speaker 1: involving Turner and Siakam attacking smalls. These pivot points, to
Speaker 1: me are these like tests that Oklahoma City's defense makes
Speaker 1: you pass. And at any one of these pivot points,
Speaker 1: Indiana's offense could break. And if Indiana's offense breaks at
Speaker 1: any of these pivot points, this thing is so over
Speaker 1: it's not even funny, like we're talking. Could be a
Speaker 1: sweep if any of these pivot points ends up breaking
Speaker 1: for Indiana. So the first pivot point is just getting
Speaker 1: the ball up the floor. In the regular season, again,
Speaker 1: the Pacers, we were a very good team at taking
Speaker 1: care of the basketball. Here are some basic stats to
Speaker 1: kind of demonstrate that for you guys. The Pacers were
Speaker 1: the third best team in the NBA taking care of
Speaker 1: the basketball overall, turning the ball over just thirteen point
Speaker 1: two times per game. The Pacers actually did a little
Speaker 1: bit better even against Oklahoma City worth mentioning just twelve
Speaker 1: turnovers per game in those two games. Among all teams
Speaker 1: who played against the Thunder this season, only the Sacramento
Speaker 1: Kings did a better job of taking care of the
Speaker 1: basketball against the Thunder, but this is a playoff matchup.
Speaker 1: In the regular season, the Thunder averaged seventeen forced turnovers
Speaker 1: and twenty one point eight points off of turnovers. In
Speaker 1: the playoffs, that goes up to eighteen turnovers and twenty
Speaker 1: three point eight points off of turnovers. They have stepped
Speaker 1: it up. Minnesota averaged nineteen point three turnovers again in
Speaker 1: the four losses, nineteen point three turnovers and twenty three
Speaker 1: point three points allowed off of turnovers. Denver in their
Speaker 1: four losses eighteen point five turnovers twenty six point three
Speaker 1: points off of turnovers. Oklahoma City has been winning games
Speaker 1: in this postseason by turning teams over and getting out
Speaker 1: in transition. That is the first breaking point of this series.
Speaker 1: Whether or not they can handle ball pressure and get
Speaker 1: the ball up the floor. I expect Oklahoma City to
Speaker 1: come out with a very aggressive ball pressure scheme with
Speaker 1: the added layer of denying Tyrese Haliburton whenever they can
Speaker 1: between Nemhard, Nie Smith, Halliburton, McConnell, Siakam, any guy who
Speaker 1: could theoretically bring the ball up the floor, they have
Speaker 1: to be sharp using their body to protect the ball
Speaker 1: and prevent the easy pick sixes that can occur out
Speaker 1: at half court. There are a couple of tricks that
Speaker 1: they can use to help handle ball pressure on the
Speaker 1: way up the floor. The obvious one is kick ahead passes.
Speaker 1: If you ever see like Indiana runs their lane so religiously,
Speaker 1: if you see an opportunity to throw a kick ahead,
Speaker 1: make it because then you don't have to bring it
Speaker 1: up against pressure. But the trick there is again you
Speaker 1: have to be cognizant of Oklahoma City playing those transition
Speaker 1: passing lanes in forcing turnovers in those situations. The less
Speaker 1: obvious one is target the Oklahoma City defenders that aren't
Speaker 1: as good at forcing turnovers. So like chet Chats on
Speaker 1: the floor, Let's say they do go big and Hartenstein's
Speaker 1: on the floor guarding Turner and Chets guarding Siakam, have
Speaker 1: Siakam bring the ball up the floor against chet Chats,
Speaker 1: not as good at applying full court pressure and ripping
Speaker 1: the ball away from a live ball handler. Right a
Speaker 1: couple other perimeter guys Aaron Wiggins Isaiah Joe These are
Speaker 1: two guys that get far fewer steals compared to the
Speaker 1: other primary defenders for Oklahoma City Shay Shay gets a
Speaker 1: lot of steels, but primarily in off ball situations. You
Speaker 1: could have Nie Smith bring the ball up the floor
Speaker 1: Shay wants to waste a bunch of energy trying to
Speaker 1: turn his man five times on his way up the floor.
Speaker 1: That's his prerogative. He's also not as good as just
Speaker 1: getting those live ball steals as some of those other
Speaker 1: guys that they have, So those are simple ways to
Speaker 1: try to alleviate that full court pressure. The second breaking
Speaker 1: point in terms of the pressure defense from Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: is high and low post entries. We talked about this
Speaker 1: a lot in this postseason run after the Denver series.
Speaker 1: In the Minnesota series, Oklahoma City in the regular season
Speaker 1: actually did quite a bit of switching with Hartenstein in
Speaker 1: ball screens. There were traditional coverages, but switches were mixed in.
Speaker 1: And then, as we mentioned earlier, Oklahoma City went small
Speaker 1: a lot, which means in this series there will be
Speaker 1: a lot of situations where Turner or Siakam is matched
Speaker 1: up against a small just like Julius Randall got, just
Speaker 1: like Nasred got, just like Aaron Gordon got, just like
Speaker 1: Nikola Jokic got. And what did we see in those
Speaker 1: series turnovers on post entries over and over again. Even
Speaker 1: for Nikola Jokich, one of the best positional bigs in
Speaker 1: terms of creating passing angles. Game seven literally turned on
Speaker 1: the inability to get Jokic the because of Alex Caruso
Speaker 1: and his disruption on post entries. And guess what in
Speaker 1: the film session, Indiana had similar turnovers against Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: in this regular season, there's a play where Miles Turner
Speaker 1: had a deep seal against Kayson Wallace under the basket
Speaker 1: and Kaison's trying to three quarter front around the left
Speaker 1: side and Miles is trying to back him down to
Speaker 1: create that passing angle, and right as he's backing him down,
Speaker 1: obi top and throws the pass and it's kind of
Speaker 1: in that gap right as Myles Turner's backing, and it
Speaker 1: just goes out of bounds. Turnover. You see a play
Speaker 1: where Pascal Siakam is posting up on the right block
Speaker 1: and the defender's full fronting the post and he's creating
Speaker 1: that over the top passing angle. Pass goes up, dude
Speaker 1: comes shooting in from behind that post bracket that we
Speaker 1: always talk about with the Miami Heat where that window
Speaker 1: just suddenly disappears as a defender comes flying in from
Speaker 1: behind and steals that ball. Even on plays when they
Speaker 1: get the ball into the post, the immediate swarre can
Speaker 1: cause turnovers as well. This is the second breaking point.
Speaker 1: If they can't actually get the ball to their size advantages,
Speaker 1: then they have very little chance of scoring against Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City when they start to switch. And so again step
Speaker 1: one getting the ball across half court into their offense.
Speaker 1: Step two actually getting the ball in their post entries
Speaker 1: and high post entries to their size advantages. Now, before
Speaker 1: we talk about the third breaking point, it's at least
Speaker 1: worth mentioning the statistical performance of Oklahoma City's previous playoff opponents. Denver,
Speaker 1: in Minnesota, and Memphis were all in the bottom half
Speaker 1: of the NBA this year in turnovers per game. These
Speaker 1: are all high turnover teams. Indiana was third. They're just
Speaker 1: better at taking care of the ball. So it's very
Speaker 1: possible that these dynamics that we're talking about are less
Speaker 1: impactful in this series. But again, it doesn't matter what
Speaker 1: you do in the regular season. It's more physically, it's
Speaker 1: more intense. This is a way better defense than anyone
Speaker 1: Indiana has played to this point. They still need to
Speaker 1: pass that test. No one gets to hold up the
Speaker 1: NBA dot com page and just be like, hey, look,
Speaker 1: we don't get any turnovers in the finals because we
Speaker 1: didn't turn it over for the first six months of
Speaker 1: the season. You gotta do it in this series, in
Speaker 1: these stakes, in this physicality. The third breaking point of
Speaker 1: the series will be what happens if Indiana doesn't turn
Speaker 1: the ball over. I'd break this down into two categories.
Speaker 1: It's all play finishing, one on one, scoring, in contested
Speaker 1: catch and shoot, shooting, and this will depend on what
Speaker 1: coverages Oklahoma City uses. Throughout the series. We're gonna see
Speaker 1: a lot of everything. We saw both teams run zone
Speaker 1: against each other in the regular season. We saw traditional coverages,
Speaker 1: we saw switching. I think Oklahoma City will start aggressive
Speaker 1: and in traditional coverages, I'll be at the level in those situations.
Speaker 1: If Indiana cannot turn the ball over and pass the
Speaker 1: ball through the defense, it will be on everyone to
Speaker 1: knock down contested catch and shoe jumpers. This Thunder team
Speaker 1: is extremely fast and they are excellent with their closeouts.
Speaker 1: They will use their speed to make you uncomfortable, so
Speaker 1: guys are gonna have to hit shots anyway under that
Speaker 1: sort of defensive pressure. And then if Indiana can pass
Speaker 1: and shoot Oklahoma City out of their baseline coverage and
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City starts switching and starts staying home off ball.
Speaker 1: In that case, it will be on guys like Halliburton
Speaker 1: and Siakam and to a lesser extent, Miles Turner, Ben Matherin,
Speaker 1: Andrew Nemhar TJ. McConnell for those guys to either beat
Speaker 1: their man off the dribble and draw help or to
Speaker 1: score the basketball one on one. If Indiana can survive
Speaker 1: the main breaking points of the series again getting the
Speaker 1: ball across half court, not fucking up their post entries,
Speaker 1: and knocking down ketch and shoo shots when they're open,
Speaker 1: will degenerate down into a one on one contest and
Speaker 1: everything will come down to those guys in their ability
Speaker 1: to score there. Siakam is going to be the huge
Speaker 1: key here. We're gonna talk about it in our prediction.
Speaker 1: But any chance Indiana has to win this series I
Speaker 1: think depends on Pascal Siakam being Finals MVP. A lot
Speaker 1: of four or five ball screens to try to get
Speaker 1: him switched on specifically Chet. I like him on Hartenstein
Speaker 1: as well, but getting into these situations where he has
Speaker 1: a chance to attack a big in space away from
Speaker 1: the rim or a small close to the rim. Those
Speaker 1: are his major advantages. And then with Tyres Halliburton in
Speaker 1: the second game in particular, he was actually able to
Speaker 1: hit quite a few threes and that unlocked some more
Speaker 1: of his dribble drive game. Everything's going to be about
Speaker 1: him hitting enough of those threes to where he can
Speaker 1: actually get dribble penetration. A lot of the usual damage
Speaker 1: that Indiana's offense does will be substantially less effective in
Speaker 1: this series. The relentless transition pushes those kick aheads. We
Speaker 1: just showed a whole video and playback on Saturday Night
Speaker 1: of how they killed the Knicks with that kind of stuff.
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City was the second best transition defense in the
Speaker 1: NBA in the regular season per cleaning the glasses transition
Speaker 1: catch all metric. They're super athletic playing in that plane
Speaker 1: of existence, and they just have such good floor balance.
Speaker 1: They're always ready to get back all of that whirling
Speaker 1: half court action that Indiana runs. The thunder will boch switches.
Speaker 1: They'll miss rotations, but far less often than other teams,
Speaker 1: and their speed closes gaps way quicker than other teams.
Speaker 1: They won't get as many of the easy runouts that
Speaker 1: they get from their ball pressure turnovers that flow into
Speaker 1: those transition sequences. Why, Because Oklahoma City is literally the
Speaker 1: best team in the league at taking care of the basketball,
Speaker 1: Indiana will have to rely on individual greatness more in
Speaker 1: this matchup than they have in any other series to
Speaker 1: this point, and I would argue that's far from the
Speaker 1: strength of this particular basketball team. Last thing I want
Speaker 1: to talk about before we get to Oklahoma City on
Speaker 1: offense is Tyre's Halliburton in what happens when he goes passive.
Speaker 1: We talked about it earlier, but his usage rate in
Speaker 1: this series is about half what it was against other
Speaker 1: matchups in the regular season. We watched in the crunch
Speaker 1: time video on playback when it's a consistent theme throughout
Speaker 1: both of these games. He just isn't very aggressive, and
Speaker 1: there's a lot of him standing around off the ball,
Speaker 1: and in those situations he just has to find a
Speaker 1: way to stay more involved in the offense. He had
Speaker 1: a layup in crunch time of the game that they
Speaker 1: almost won, the one where they were up one o
Speaker 1: seven to one oh three. The shot that he hit
Speaker 1: to put them up one o seven to one oh
Speaker 1: three with like it was like three minutes left before
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City, walked him down, came out of a stack
Speaker 1: pick and roll where he was the screener that was
Speaker 1: starting underneath the basket, so it was Nemhard up top,
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure Turner was the one setting the screen.
Speaker 1: And as Turner set the screen, and as Nemhard came off,
Speaker 1: Haliburton backscreen for the role man and then relocated out
Speaker 1: to the left wing, and in the process he generated
Speaker 1: himself a closeout opportunity. In that closeout opportunity, he was
Speaker 1: able to beat his man off the dribble and make
Speaker 1: a little floater that crawled over the front of the rim,
Speaker 1: and that put the Pacers up by four. That a
Speaker 1: dynamic and not just in three man action, but even
Speaker 1: in two man game. Keeping himself involved as a screener
Speaker 1: is going to be key because when he sets screens,
Speaker 1: he forces his man to actually react, and if he doesn't,
Speaker 1: then you have a different kind of opening that occurs.
Speaker 1: Pascal Siakam hit a pull up three. I've watched so
Speaker 1: much film this morning that I can't even remember which
Speaker 1: game it was in. But one of the games, Tyres
Speaker 1: Haliburton goes and he's getting kind of hugged by lou Dort,
Speaker 1: and when he goes and sets a screen for Pascal Siakam,
Speaker 1: lou Dort just stays hugged up on Haliburton. And so
Speaker 1: as Siakam comes off of the ball screen, all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, he's wide open because Haliburton set the screen
Speaker 1: and his man didn't want to help, and so he
Speaker 1: rows up into a wide open dribble off the dribble
Speaker 1: three at the top of the key and he knocked
Speaker 1: it down. So again, when Halliburton is being played out
Speaker 1: of the game by ball pressure, which that's a whole
Speaker 1: other separate thing that he needs to not allow that
Speaker 1: to happen. But let's say he loses his confidence dribbling
Speaker 1: in this matchup, He's gotta stay involved as a screener.
Speaker 1: He cannot allow himself to become a spectator in this matchup.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Oklahoma City on offense.
Speaker 1: Matchups once again are going to depend on the lineup
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma City starts with. If they start Hartenstein, we'll
Speaker 1: see Turner on Hartenstein, Siakam on Chet, Halliburton on lou Dort.
Speaker 1: Indy interestingly likes nemhard on Shae more than Nie Smith
Speaker 1: I've been super excited to see Niesmith get reps on Sheha,
Speaker 1: and we will inevitably see that because obviously they're going
Speaker 1: to try different looks over the series, but not a
Speaker 1: ton of examples of it in the regular season. A
Speaker 1: lot of Nemhard on Sga. We'll see how that works out.
Speaker 1: They match athleticism with Nie Smith going on Jay Dubb
Speaker 1: as his primary match. If the Thunder start sheet at
Speaker 1: the five, I think we'll see Turner on Shet. I
Speaker 1: think we'll see Siakam on Dort. That's based on their
Speaker 1: second matchup this season. Haliburton on Caruso as like kind
Speaker 1: of like guarding that like pick and pop guy that
Speaker 1: ended up being Kase on Wallace in the regular season.
Speaker 1: A lot of damage done to the Pacers defense using
Speaker 1: Haliburton in screens and having case On Wallace just slip
Speaker 1: out and he got a big dunk in an important
Speaker 1: sequence during the regular season out of that type of play.
Speaker 1: But Cruso, obviously, as we know, can do similar things
Speaker 1: out of that spot. So regardless of whether it's Caruso
Speaker 1: or case On Wallace or whatever it is that they
Speaker 1: decide to decide to start, it'll be a guard that
Speaker 1: I expect the Thunder to attack Haliburton in hedges with
Speaker 1: and again with those hedges, a lot of teams try
Speaker 1: to take ghost screen threes out of hedges, meaning slipping
Speaker 1: out towards a three point line. One of the things
Speaker 1: that the Thunder did in this matchup, which I found
Speaker 1: really fascinating is they attacked Haliburton's hedges with cuts like rolls.
Speaker 1: And the fascinating thing there is like Haliburton has a
Speaker 1: relatively easy method for defending ghost screens, where like when
Speaker 1: the guy slips out of the screen, he gets super
Speaker 1: high with his hands as he gets out of the hedge,
Speaker 1: and that forces like an over the top pass that
Speaker 1: is way more difficult for the guy to get a
Speaker 1: nice clean catch and shoot. Look out of these guys
Speaker 1: are just slipping right to the basket and Shay's just
Speaker 1: you know, throwing a little quick bounce pass into the
Speaker 1: gap or a little floating pass over the into the gap,
Speaker 1: and Haliburton doesn't really have a chance to rotate there
Speaker 1: because he's already going downhill towards the rims. So something
Speaker 1: to keep an eye on there. And then again, the
Speaker 1: same matchups outside of that Nemhart on SGA and Nie
Speaker 1: Smith on Jay Dubb. But as we mentioned with Oklahoma City,
Speaker 1: with all the cross matches and stuff that's gonna occur,
Speaker 1: and just with the depth of perimeter guard defensive talent,
Speaker 1: you're gonna see all sorts of different sorts of matchups
Speaker 1: in this series. Now, Indiana also brings a great deal
Speaker 1: of full court ball pressure. As we know, the trick
Speaker 1: here for Indiana is to not lose control of the
Speaker 1: ball in those situation. We saw this a lot in
Speaker 1: Minnesota where a ball pressure can actually backfire if Shae
Speaker 1: ends up just getting downhill. Shaye attacks ball pressure by
Speaker 1: making a quick move, getting you pinned on his side
Speaker 1: and then just using it as the initial attack of
Speaker 1: the possession and getting into the teeth of the defense.
Speaker 1: He's not trying to survive ball pressure, He's trying to
Speaker 1: punish ball pressure. As a team. In this regular season,
Speaker 1: we've also seen Oklahoma City attack Indiana's ball pressure with
Speaker 1: extended ball screens, sometimes out as far as half court,
Speaker 1: where they'll basically run a pick and roll with Hartenstein screening.
Speaker 1: Because again Chet didn't play in the regular season, but
Speaker 1: we'll see Hart and Sign run out instead of screen
Speaker 1: for Shay way out at half court, which then just
Speaker 1: creates this massive runway for both players. Shay's now rolling
Speaker 1: or driving really hard down one side, and here comes
Speaker 1: Hart and Sign rolling really hard down the other side.
Speaker 1: They've had a lot of success with ballscreen attack in
Speaker 1: this matchup, Shae straight line drives are literally death. They
Speaker 1: end up in so many layups and so many foul calls.
Speaker 1: Indy has to find a way to contain the ball,
Speaker 1: and one of the biggest kind of like subplots of
Speaker 1: this series will be if either team can break the
Speaker 1: other team of their primary defensive aggression game plan just
Speaker 1: by not turning the ball over, getting the ball into
Speaker 1: the teeth of their defense, and making the appropriate passes
Speaker 1: and knocking down shots. If you can break either team's
Speaker 1: base scheme, that's where things can get pretty interesting. Now
Speaker 1: in ball screens, Indiana's generally loading up. They're at the
Speaker 1: level most of the time to try to stop the
Speaker 1: guard from getting downhill. That doesn't work as much when
Speaker 1: the ball screens are extended out at half court, But
Speaker 1: when they can get the ball screens in more of
Speaker 1: a traditional spot closer to the rim, they can come
Speaker 1: up to the level, and as long as the guard
Speaker 1: doesn't reject the screen, they can contain the ball there.
Speaker 1: But what is that what happens when you end up
Speaker 1: bringing your big up to the level. That's when you
Speaker 1: start letting the role man get behind. And even though
Speaker 1: Hartenstein struggled on defense in this matchup, he did get
Speaker 1: several lob dunks in ball screens because Turner was up
Speaker 1: at the level. We talked a little bit about this
Speaker 1: earlier in the show. Even if Hartenstein has played off
Speaker 1: the floor, Chet brings that same conundrum to the table.
Speaker 1: Albeit he's not as good as a screener hart and
Speaker 1: Stein's a better screener out on the perimeter getting those
Speaker 1: initial bits of separation. But watch out for Chet as
Speaker 1: a roleman in the series. He can pop. He certainly can.
Speaker 1: I think that would be more useful his shooting ability
Speaker 1: in those like spacing situations when other players are involved.
Speaker 1: I think vertical spacing is going to be a key
Speaker 1: in this series with the way that Indiana's guarding and
Speaker 1: ball screens, and so Chet's ability to roll and finish
Speaker 1: will be big. Now the pacers will pinch from the
Speaker 1: weak side, nail help low man help to try to
Speaker 1: shrink the floor. As has been the case for Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City all season, it will come down to them passing
Speaker 1: the ball effectively through that aggression and role players knocking
Speaker 1: down threes. In their two regular season matchups, tell me
Speaker 1: if you can see the difference. In the December game,
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City got zero point eighty six points per catch
Speaker 1: and shoot jumper. They got just zero point nine to
Speaker 1: one points per play when they passed out of pick roll,
Speaker 1: and they managed just a one oh seven half court
Speaker 1: offensive rating. That was the game that Indiana held a
Speaker 1: late lead and almost won. In the late March game,
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City got one point three to six points per
Speaker 1: catching cheo jumper, They scored one point three to eight
Speaker 1: points per play when they passed out a pick and roll,
Speaker 1: and they had a one fourteen offensive rating in the
Speaker 1: half court. That was the game they blew the Pacers out.
Speaker 1: So once again, it's the same dynamic that has existed
Speaker 1: throughout this postseason run. When you look back through the
Speaker 1: other losses that Oklahoma City has had in this postseason,
Speaker 1: all four of them the Thunder dropped below a ninety
Speaker 1: offensive rating in the half court. They are rickety on
Speaker 1: that end of the floor. Compared to their defense, and
Speaker 1: Indiana does, in theory, have the personnel better equipped to
Speaker 1: keep the ball in front and rotate out to shooters
Speaker 1: and do all that sort of stuff, right, so they
Speaker 1: if Indiana wins games in this series, that's what it'll
Speaker 1: look like, loading up on the ball, Oklahoma City missing shots,
Speaker 1: them not having a successful half court offense game it
Speaker 1: being close slate, Indiana having a chance. Shay absolutely torched
Speaker 1: these guys in the regular season thirty nine points per game,
Speaker 1: seven rebounds and eight assists, fifty six percent from the field,
Speaker 1: sixty four percent from three twelve free throw attempts per game.
Speaker 1: He just absolutely fried him. The main catch and shoot
Speaker 1: guys that burned him Lou Dort and Isaiah Joe. Those
Speaker 1: guys hit fifteen threes in the two games. Now, what's
Speaker 1: interesting there is those are two guys that have been
Speaker 1: way less effective as shooters in this postseason. Isaiah Joe's
Speaker 1: role has been marginalized a little bit. Lou Dort is
Speaker 1: still taking a lot of threes. He's actually leading the
Speaker 1: team and made threes per game in this postseason, but
Speaker 1: he's doing it at a clip that's like barely over
Speaker 1: thirty percent. Right, So like those are the two guys
Speaker 1: that burned him in the regular season, Lou Dort, It's
Speaker 1: actually funny you go back and watch him in the
Speaker 1: regular season. He was just so much more aggressive and
Speaker 1: confident as a catch and shoot guy than he looks
Speaker 1: in this particular postseason, a little more hesitant to take
Speaker 1: contested threes in the postseason, and obviously just shooting them
Speaker 1: at a lower percentage. Something to keep an eye on.
Speaker 1: The trick for Indiana is going to be finding a
Speaker 1: coverage that doesn't require them to leave shooters open, because,
Speaker 1: as mentioned, there have been games where Oklahoma City's offense
Speaker 1: has cracked. But here they are. They're twelve and four
Speaker 1: in this postseason, and their offense has looked pretty fucking
Speaker 1: great outside of that, and in big moments like Game
Speaker 1: four Minnesota, Minnesota alters their game plan, starts loading up
Speaker 1: in the paint, forcing them to knock down catch and
Speaker 1: jew jumpers. What did they do? They made them all right?
Speaker 1: So can in dey find a coverage that doesn't require
Speaker 1: them to leave shooters open when Shae is let's say
Speaker 1: they switch, Well, Shane and Jay Dubb torched bigs on
Speaker 1: switches in this matchup in the regular season, even Siakam
Speaker 1: Shae was going right by Siakam whenever he wanted to,
Speaker 1: so I'm not sure switching necessarily covers the bases. And
Speaker 1: then we talked earlier about how they lost control of
Speaker 1: the role man when they defended ball screens two on two.
Speaker 1: They could try running a deeper D, but now you're
Speaker 1: running to drop against Sga, who's one of the more
Speaker 1: gifted mid range shot makers in the league. So I
Speaker 1: don't really see a combination for Indiana that could hold
Speaker 1: up in one on one situations or two on two situations.
Speaker 1: So honestly, it feels to me like Indiana's only chance
Speaker 1: on defense is to basically load up and hope guys
Speaker 1: miss shots. And that's where you cross your fingers and say,
Speaker 1: it's the NBA Finals, it's June. These guys are young
Speaker 1: Chet and j dub again, two co stars that have
Speaker 1: become demonstrably more comfortable for Oklahoma City as the playoff
Speaker 1: run is progressed. Totally different vibe, totally different vibe in
Speaker 1: the finals. Everything is so different, the media presence, just
Speaker 1: the pomp and circumstances, the pomp and circumstance, the pressure
Speaker 1: everything is just tougher in this setting, and so I
Speaker 1: like that that really is the pathway. I view this
Speaker 1: as an extremely poor matchup for the Indiana Pacers. We've
Speaker 1: talked so much about how good the Pacers and Thunder
Speaker 1: are at cap on the low hanging fruit and basketball.
Speaker 1: If you guys remember, we spent a lot of time
Speaker 1: talking about that over the last couple weeks. Through ball pressure,
Speaker 1: playing with pace and transition, just like taking advantage of
Speaker 1: simple advantages and extending advantages and finishing plays. These teams
Speaker 1: are two of the most well coached teams in the
Speaker 1: league that play modern basketball in a way that maximizes
Speaker 1: your talent. But neither of these teams are very susceptible
Speaker 1: to that sort of thing because of how sharp they are.
Speaker 1: So this series has a high probability of coming down
Speaker 1: to athletic superiority and superstar play. And I think the
Speaker 1: Thunder are the more athletic team, and I think Shay
Speaker 1: Gilgers Alexander is far and away the best player in
Speaker 1: the series. I think we'll see Indiana's offense break in
Speaker 1: many different ways. I think we'll see games where Tyres
Speaker 1: Haliburton is a complete non factor. I think we'll see
Speaker 1: games where they can't get the ball into the post.
Speaker 1: I think we'll see game where they can't hit a
Speaker 1: jumper to save their lives. We could see each of
Speaker 1: those things in different losses in this series. I'm picking
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City in five. I'm guessing the home crowd in
Speaker 1: Indiana and that game plan of sagging in and packing
Speaker 1: the paint and forcing guys in knockdown shots will lead
Speaker 1: to a relatively comfortable win for Indiana in Game three.
Speaker 1: I'll say by around ten to fifteen points. But I
Speaker 1: think Oklahoma City wins games one, two, four, and five
Speaker 1: all in pretty comfortable fashion, probably with a blowout or
Speaker 1: two mixed in there. Indiana does have a path. It
Speaker 1: starts and ends with their defense, if they can successfully
Speaker 1: load up on Shay and j Dubb and force the
Speaker 1: game to be played through Oklahoma City's young players off ball,
Speaker 1: and if they can be sharp enough with their closeouts
Speaker 1: to make them uncomfortable, which again is the key. If
Speaker 1: you let it doesn't matter if it's the NBA Finals.
Speaker 1: If you let dudes just take open threes all series,
Speaker 1: they will eventually get comfortable. But if you can press
Speaker 1: them just enough to make them uncomfortable. There will be
Speaker 1: games where Oklahoma City misses. From there, all roads lead
Speaker 1: back to Siakam. I think he has to be finals
Speaker 1: MVP for Indiana to win. He's gonna have more favorable
Speaker 1: matchups than Halliburton. He's going to be the most reliable
Speaker 1: option that Indiana has when Oklahoma City starts switching everything.
Speaker 1: And his ability to quickly score and manage double teams
Speaker 1: because again Oklahoma City will swarm him. That will be
Speaker 1: the key to their ability to score and the half court.
Speaker 1: When things slowed down, guys got to hit catch and
Speaker 1: shoot shots. When Oklahoma City loads up, I think they
Speaker 1: need to dominate the offensive glass as well. This is
Speaker 1: a team. In the regular season Oklahoma City did not
Speaker 1: do too poorly on the offensive glass against Indiana. I
Speaker 1: think Indiana rebounded twenty eight percent of their own misses,
Speaker 1: but Oklahoma City is allowing an offensive rebound on thirty
Speaker 1: three percent of opponents misses. In this playoff run, Indiana
Speaker 1: can do some damage there, but to be clear, I
Speaker 1: just don't see that as a super realistic path. I
Speaker 1: think this is every bit as lopsided a series as
Speaker 1: Denver versus Miami in twenty twenty three, the talent gap
Speaker 1: isn't necessarily as wide, but I think the matchup is
Speaker 1: just particularly brutal for the Pacers. So again, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a showcase for some young talent in the NBA.
Speaker 1: Should be a fun series for all of us basketball
Speaker 1: nerds out there. But I just think Oklahoma City has
Speaker 1: everything they need to dismantle this Indiana team, and I
Speaker 1: expect them to do so relatively quickly. All Right, guys,
Speaker 1: That's all I have for today is always to sincerely
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys for supporting the show. Tomorrow we have
Speaker 1: Sam Vassini coming on the show to do a deeper
Speaker 1: dive into the finals. Then on Wednesday, we're doing a
Speaker 1: video on just some of the major storylines in this
Speaker 1: particular series. That's our coverage before we load up into
Speaker 1: Thursday Night Live on YouTube. After the final buzzer of
Speaker 1: Game one, I will see you guys then,