1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: The volume. The NBA Finals are here. This is your 2 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:10,399 Speaker 1: last chance to bet on the NBA until next season, 3 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: and DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: NBA is pulling out all the stops to make this 5 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: a finals. To remember, one team will be crown champ 6 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 1: and the other will be lost to history. Who you 7 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: got winning at all? Put your hoops expertise to the test. 8 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 1: All season long, DraftKings has been the go to spot 9 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: for NBA player props and that doesn't stop now. Who's 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: gonna carry their team to the chip? 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Please play responsibly on behalf of 28 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas twenty one plus. Age 29 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: and eligibility varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bet must 30 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: win to receive reward. Minimum minus five hundred odds required. 31 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. 32 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKG dot co. 33 00:01:47,200 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: Slash audio. All right, welcome to hoops tonight. You're at 34 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: the volume. Happy Monday, everybody. Hope all of you guys 35 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: are having a great start to your week. Well, we've 36 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: made it to the NBA Finals. So today we're gonna 37 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: start with our very basketball centric x's and O centric 38 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: series preview. We're gonna do the same format we've been 39 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: using for all our series. We'll talk about the season 40 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: series and the regular season off the top. Then we'll 41 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: talk about our gambling odds presented by DraftKings. We'll look 42 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: at Indiana on offense, we'll look at Oklahoma City on offense, 43 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 1: and then I will get to my prediction. You guys 44 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 1: know the drill before we get started. Subscribed to Hoops 45 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 1: Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. 46 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,079 Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at underscore JCNLTS. You guys don't 47 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,519 Speaker 1: miss ShW announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever 48 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 1: you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super 49 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: helpful if you leave a rating in a review on 50 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media 51 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. Make sure you 52 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: guys follow us there. In the last but not least, 53 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: keep dropping mail back questions in our chats after our shows. 54 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 1: Who can get to our mail bags throughout the remainder 55 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: of the series. All right, let's talk some basketball. So 56 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: the Thunder one the season series two to oh. The 57 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: first game was back onto Zember twenty sixth. It was 58 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: in Indiana, Indiana actually held a four point lead with 59 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: a couple of minutes left. Those of you guys who 60 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: hang out with us on playback, we actually rewatched the 61 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: entire crunch time sequence of this particular game, and the 62 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: Thunder just walked him down. Ja Dubb had a couple 63 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: really nice attacks out of ball screens, one where he 64 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: got a nifty kind like up and under a layup, 65 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: another one where he drew a foul. Shay had a 66 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: kind of a guard guard screen with case on Wallace. 67 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 1: That's a big way that they look to attack Tyrese 68 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: Haliburton when he was hiding on guards was just kind 69 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: of having guards slip out of screens. When Haliburton hedges, 70 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: they hit Kase on Wallace for another opportunity. He drew 71 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: a fout and then Shake Gills Alexander hit this ridiculous 72 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: hesitation pull up three off the top of the key 73 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: while coinciding with a bunch of Oklahoma City stops on 74 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: the other end of the floor, and they just walked 75 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: the Pacers down and got a big win in Indiana. 76 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: Their second matchup was much more recently on March twenty ninth, 77 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: down in Oklahoma City, and the Thunder just blew him out. 78 00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: The Pacers jumped out to a little bit of an 79 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: early lead. There's an interesting trend in this matchup where 80 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: when Isaiah Hartenstein's on the floor, the Thunder just look 81 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: a little bit slow and the Pacers are able to 82 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: kind of get into the flow of their offense and 83 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: cause some problems. But at the start of those games 84 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: you'd see that bear out. Then they'd go a lot 85 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: more small. Chet didn't play in either game, so we'd 86 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: see very different versions of the Thunder later in games 87 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 1: where they just kind of matched speed for speed and 88 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 1: they were able to cause more problems for the Pacers. 89 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 1: Now so worth mentioning. The Pacers went out to big 90 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: leads in each game. They jumped out twenty two to 91 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: seven in the December game, and they jumped up nineteen 92 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: to nine in the March game. But again that kind 93 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: of falls into that Hartenstein stuff. Very interesting on off 94 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 1: splits with Isaiah Hartenstein in the regular season versus when 95 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: he was off the floor. And as is always the 96 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 1: case with the regular season, key players missed games for 97 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: both teams right like Aaron E. Smith and Ben Matherin 98 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 1: each missed the game. Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso each 99 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: missed a game, and then Chet Holmgrin missed both games. 100 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: And I think that's gonna be the interesting one because 101 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: while Hartenstein caused problems on the defensive end for the Thunder, 102 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: he also caused problems for the Pacers when the Thunder 103 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: were on offense with his vertical spacing and ball screens, 104 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 1: as they used a lot of at the level coverages 105 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 1: and let the roller get behind. So Chet is theoretically 106 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: the solution to both of those problems. A faster, more 107 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: defensively versatile big that won't give you the issues that 108 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 1: Hartenstein gives you on that end of the floor, but 109 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: a legitimate vertical spacer who also can pick and pop, 110 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: and that causes all sorts of problems. So obviously Chet 111 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: missing both games is a huge deal, and it didn't 112 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: matter as the Thunder went to another Our gambling odds again, 113 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: all of our odds are presented by our partner, Draft Kings. 114 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is right now minus seven hundred on DraftKings 115 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 1: to win the title. Feels are out right to me. 116 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: I would be absolutely stunned if Indiana found a way 117 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: to win this series. We're going to go through the 118 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: specific pathway that exists for them to try to toe 119 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: that line and somehow find a way to win this series. 120 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: But I have a really hard time seeing it, and 121 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 1: I think it's a particular tough personnel matchup for them, 122 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: even above and beyond any talent differential that exists within 123 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 1: this series. So to me, Oklahoma City being around minus 124 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: seven hundred seems about right. There are other series where 125 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: they had odds in the similar range where I felt like, 126 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, that's right about where it was 127 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 1: for the Denver matchup, And I'm like, Eh, this doesn't 128 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: make sense to me. Like Denver clearly can cause some 129 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: serious problems for the Thunder with Jokic and with all 130 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: of their size and just their veteran experience, this to 131 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 1: me feels like a more natural line for this type 132 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 1: of matchup. Let's start with Indiana on offense. As far 133 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 1: as matchups go, again, a lot of this depends on 134 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: how Oklahoma City decides to start games. If they start Hartenstein, 135 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: he'll guard Myles Turner, Chet will likely guard Pascal Siakam, 136 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 1: j Doubill guard Andrew Nemhard, lou Dort will guard Tyrese Haliburton, 137 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: and Shake Gildes Alexander will guard Aaron Nee Smith. A 138 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 1: couple of specific things to keep an eye on there, 139 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: Like Pascal Siakam in this matchup consistently in the regular season, 140 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: was really aggressive downhill versus Oklahoma City's bigs, even Hartenstein. 141 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: Obviously we're gonna talk about attacking Smalls. That's gonna be 142 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: a big theme in this series. But if Chet guards Siakam, 143 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: be ready to watch Siakam try to cave his chest 144 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: in early and often in the series, like just aggressive 145 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: drives from the top of the key where he sees 146 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: Chet in front of him and he just tries to 147 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 1: go through him and get all the way to the rim. 148 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: That's something to keep an eye on. And then again 149 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: Shay guarding Nie Smiths. Shay as a tendency to linger 150 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: into the paint. He like basically operates as a roamer 151 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: in the Oklahoma City defense. It's how he gets a 152 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: lot of steals in a lot of cases. So obviously 153 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: Aaron Nee Smith's ability to knock down catch and shoot 154 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: threes and beat him crashing to the basket is key 155 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: if they go small, and if they start Alex Caruso, 156 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: I think we'll see check guard Myles Turner. Very different 157 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: type of matchup obviously there. I think I'd go with 158 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: Caruso on Siakam in that case, just because Caruso has 159 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: had success in this playoff run dealing with Biggs. He 160 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: had a little bit of a problem with Julius Randall 161 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 1: in the first game of that series, and then then 162 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: he just figured out that Julius Randl can't dribble and 163 00:07:58,400 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: just attack the basketball and caused a lot of proper 164 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,239 Speaker 1: in that way. So I would just have Caruso guard 165 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: Siakam if that's the case. He's just had a lot 166 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: of success against those bigger forwards, including even Jokic briefly 167 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: in that second round series. The rest of the matchups 168 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: would be the same obviously, Loudord on Tyres Halliburton, shakil 169 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: As Alexander on, Nie Smith and j dubb On injur 170 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: and m Hard. But again, as it pertains to Oklahoma 171 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: City in particular, even with like Keason Wallace coming in 172 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: off the bench, Caruso coming in off the bench of 173 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: Hartenstein starts Aaron Wiggins. All these guards are interchangeable, and 174 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: they're all gonna spend a lot of time guarding a 175 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 1: lot of different players. Both of these teams play in 176 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: transition a ton, and so even talking about these matchups 177 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: kind of comes with a certain amount of like, it 178 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily matter as much as you would think, simply 179 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: because so many of these situations are gonna involve transition 180 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: cross matches. Again, transition cross match is pretty simple the 181 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: principles and transition defense or stop the ball, protect the rim, 182 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: then spray out to shooters. So it's not about guarding 183 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: your man in that case, it's about guarding the nearest man, right, 184 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:58,839 Speaker 1: And so you're gonna see a lot of situations where 185 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,839 Speaker 1: dudes get cross match, and so everyone's going to kind 186 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: of have to figure out how to guard in their 187 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: respective random matchups that they end up in. In the 188 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 1: regular season, Tyre's Halliburton was a non factor relative to 189 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 1: other matchups. Tyrese is generally a low usage player because 190 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: he's more of an advantage hunter than an assist hunter. 191 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: The difference to me there is like Tyres Haliburton gets 192 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: rid of the ball earlier than most people do, and 193 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: it's usually when as soon as he sees the slightest 194 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: bit of a mismatch, whichcuse me, not even mismatch, but 195 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: advantage like this guy lingers in a little bit too 196 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: far on a ball screen, leaving two on the ball, 197 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 1: or this guy's sinking just a bit too far in 198 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 1: in nail help, or this guy's open up the floor. 199 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: Tyree's gets rid of the ball quickly. That leads to 200 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: a lot more hockey assists and fewer regular assists. So 201 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: even as a high assist player, his usage rate is 202 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: relatively low because of how often he gets rid of 203 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: the ball quickly in possessions. But even within that context, 204 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 1: his usage plummets in this matchup. So for instance, Tyre's 205 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: Halliburton has this like you know, offense engine only had 206 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: a twenty one percent usage percentage in the regular season 207 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: against the whole league, but that dropped all the way 208 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: down to twelve percent against the Thunder. That's how uninvolved 209 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 1: Tyrese Haliburton looked in this matchup, and that is We're 210 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 1: going to get into it a little bit more later, 211 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 1: but that's gonna be something Tyre's has to avoid in 212 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 1: the sense that he needs to make sure that he 213 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: remains a threat even when he's not involved in the action. 214 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: The two starters for the Pacers that saw an increase 215 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: in usage relative to what they did versus the rest 216 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: of the league. Among their starters was andren Emhart. Obviously, 217 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: that's not too hard to figure out. He's the next 218 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: best ball handler in the lineup after Haliburton, and so 219 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: if he's gonna end up running the show while Haliburton 220 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: stands around, he's the obvious guy that slides into that spot. 221 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,839 Speaker 1: The second guy's Miles Turner, and it's not too hard 222 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 1: to figure out that either, because of the switches that 223 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,599 Speaker 1: lead him that leave him in a lot of matchups 224 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 1: with guards underneath the basket. Oklahoma City went small in 225 00:10:57,520 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: this matchup quite a bit in the regular season. I 226 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: consider going to chat at center small for the sake 227 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 1: of this matchup because how skinny he is, and so 228 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: Turner and Siakam, even a little bit of Thomas Bryant. 229 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: Maybe just these guys, these bigger players, even obi topping 230 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: a little bit, these guys attacking Smalls is gonna be 231 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: arguably the biggest pivot point of the series, which we'll 232 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: get into hearing a little bit. Everything starts with ball pressure. 233 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: There are these pivot points I just talked about one 234 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: involving Turner and Siakam attacking smalls. These pivot points, to 235 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: me are these like tests that Oklahoma City's defense makes 236 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: you pass. And at any one of these pivot points, 237 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: Indiana's offense could break. And if Indiana's offense breaks at 238 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: any of these pivot points, this thing is so over 239 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: it's not even funny, like we're talking. Could be a 240 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 1: sweep if any of these pivot points ends up breaking 241 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: for Indiana. So the first pivot point is just getting 242 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 1: the ball up the floor. In the regular season, again, 243 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: the Pacers, we were a very good team at taking 244 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: care of the basketball. Here are some basic stats to 245 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: kind of demonstrate that for you guys. The Pacers were 246 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: the third best team in the NBA taking care of 247 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: the basketball overall, turning the ball over just thirteen point 248 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 1: two times per game. The Pacers actually did a little 249 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: bit better even against Oklahoma City worth mentioning just twelve 250 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: turnovers per game in those two games. Among all teams 251 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: who played against the Thunder this season, only the Sacramento 252 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: Kings did a better job of taking care of the 253 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: basketball against the Thunder, but this is a playoff matchup. 254 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: In the regular season, the Thunder averaged seventeen forced turnovers 255 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 1: and twenty one point eight points off of turnovers. In 256 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: the playoffs, that goes up to eighteen turnovers and twenty 257 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 1: three point eight points off of turnovers. They have stepped 258 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: it up. Minnesota averaged nineteen point three turnovers again in 259 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: the four losses, nineteen point three turnovers and twenty three 260 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,719 Speaker 1: point three points allowed off of turnovers. Denver in their 261 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:02,959 Speaker 1: four losses eighteen point five turnovers twenty six point three 262 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: points off of turnovers. Oklahoma City has been winning games 263 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: in this postseason by turning teams over and getting out 264 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 1: in transition. That is the first breaking point of this series. 265 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: Whether or not they can handle ball pressure and get 266 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: the ball up the floor. I expect Oklahoma City to 267 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: come out with a very aggressive ball pressure scheme with 268 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: the added layer of denying Tyrese Haliburton whenever they can 269 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: between Nemhard, Nie Smith, Halliburton, McConnell, Siakam, any guy who 270 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 1: could theoretically bring the ball up the floor, they have 271 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: to be sharp using their body to protect the ball 272 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 1: and prevent the easy pick sixes that can occur out 273 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: at half court. There are a couple of tricks that 274 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: they can use to help handle ball pressure on the 275 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: way up the floor. The obvious one is kick ahead passes. 276 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: If you ever see like Indiana runs their lane so religiously, 277 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: if you see an opportunity to throw a kick ahead, 278 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 1: make it because then you don't have to bring it 279 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: up against pressure. But the trick there is again you 280 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: have to be cognizant of Oklahoma City playing those transition 281 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: passing lanes in forcing turnovers in those situations. The less 282 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: obvious one is target the Oklahoma City defenders that aren't 283 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: as good at forcing turnovers. So like chet Chats on 284 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: the floor, Let's say they do go big and Hartenstein's 285 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: on the floor guarding Turner and Chets guarding Siakam, have 286 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: Siakam bring the ball up the floor against chet Chats, 287 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: not as good at applying full court pressure and ripping 288 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: the ball away from a live ball handler. Right a 289 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 1: couple other perimeter guys Aaron Wiggins Isaiah Joe These are 290 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: two guys that get far fewer steals compared to the 291 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: other primary defenders for Oklahoma City Shay Shay gets a 292 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: lot of steels, but primarily in off ball situations. You 293 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: could have Nie Smith bring the ball up the floor 294 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: Shay wants to waste a bunch of energy trying to 295 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: turn his man five times on his way up the floor. 296 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: That's his prerogative. He's also not as good as just 297 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: getting those live ball steals as some of those other 298 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: guys that they have, So those are simple ways to 299 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: try to alleviate that full court pressure. The second breaking 300 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: point in terms of the pressure defense from Oklahoma City 301 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: is high and low post entries. We talked about this 302 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: a lot in this postseason run after the Denver series. 303 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: In the Minnesota series, Oklahoma City in the regular season 304 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: actually did quite a bit of switching with Hartenstein in 305 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: ball screens. There were traditional coverages, but switches were mixed in. 306 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: And then, as we mentioned earlier, Oklahoma City went small 307 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: a lot, which means in this series there will be 308 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: a lot of situations where Turner or Siakam is matched 309 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: up against a small just like Julius Randall got, just 310 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: like Nasred got, just like Aaron Gordon got, just like 311 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: Nikola Jokic got. And what did we see in those 312 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: series turnovers on post entries over and over again. Even 313 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: for Nikola Jokich, one of the best positional bigs in 314 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: terms of creating passing angles. Game seven literally turned on 315 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: the inability to get Jokic the because of Alex Caruso 316 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: and his disruption on post entries. And guess what in 317 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: the film session, Indiana had similar turnovers against Oklahoma City 318 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: in this regular season, there's a play where Miles Turner 319 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 1: had a deep seal against Kayson Wallace under the basket 320 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: and Kaison's trying to three quarter front around the left 321 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: side and Miles is trying to back him down to 322 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: create that passing angle, and right as he's backing him down, 323 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: obi top and throws the pass and it's kind of 324 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: in that gap right as Myles Turner's backing, and it 325 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 1: just goes out of bounds. Turnover. You see a play 326 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: where Pascal Siakam is posting up on the right block 327 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: and the defender's full fronting the post and he's creating 328 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: that over the top passing angle. Pass goes up, dude 329 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 1: comes shooting in from behind that post bracket that we 330 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: always talk about with the Miami Heat where that window 331 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 1: just suddenly disappears as a defender comes flying in from 332 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: behind and steals that ball. Even on plays when they 333 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: get the ball into the post, the immediate swarre can 334 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: cause turnovers as well. This is the second breaking point. 335 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 1: If they can't actually get the ball to their size advantages, 336 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: then they have very little chance of scoring against Oklahoma 337 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 1: City when they start to switch. And so again step 338 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: one getting the ball across half court into their offense. 339 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: Step two actually getting the ball in their post entries 340 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: and high post entries to their size advantages. Now, before 341 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: we talk about the third breaking point, it's at least 342 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 1: worth mentioning the statistical performance of Oklahoma City's previous playoff opponents. Denver, 343 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 1: in Minnesota, and Memphis were all in the bottom half 344 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 1: of the NBA this year in turnovers per game. These 345 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: are all high turnover teams. Indiana was third. They're just 346 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: better at taking care of the ball. So it's very 347 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: possible that these dynamics that we're talking about are less 348 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 1: impactful in this series. But again, it doesn't matter what 349 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: you do in the regular season. It's more physically, it's 350 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: more intense. This is a way better defense than anyone 351 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 1: Indiana has played to this point. They still need to 352 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,439 Speaker 1: pass that test. No one gets to hold up the 353 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: NBA dot com page and just be like, hey, look, 354 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: we don't get any turnovers in the finals because we 355 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 1: didn't turn it over for the first six months of 356 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: the season. You gotta do it in this series, in 357 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: these stakes, in this physicality. The third breaking point of 358 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: the series will be what happens if Indiana doesn't turn 359 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 1: the ball over. I'd break this down into two categories. 360 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: It's all play finishing, one on one, scoring, in contested 361 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 1: catch and shoot, shooting, and this will depend on what 362 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: coverages Oklahoma City uses. Throughout the series. We're gonna see 363 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: a lot of everything. We saw both teams run zone 364 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,360 Speaker 1: against each other in the regular season. We saw traditional coverages, 365 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: we saw switching. I think Oklahoma City will start aggressive 366 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: and in traditional coverages, I'll be at the level in those situations. 367 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 1: If Indiana cannot turn the ball over and pass the 368 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 1: ball through the defense, it will be on everyone to 369 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 1: knock down contested catch and shoe jumpers. This Thunder team 370 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: is extremely fast and they are excellent with their closeouts. 371 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 1: They will use their speed to make you uncomfortable, so 372 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 1: guys are gonna have to hit shots anyway under that 373 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 1: sort of defensive pressure. And then if Indiana can pass 374 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:23,199 Speaker 1: and shoot Oklahoma City out of their baseline coverage and 375 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City starts switching and starts staying home off ball. 376 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: In that case, it will be on guys like Halliburton 377 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: and Siakam and to a lesser extent, Miles Turner, Ben Matherin, 378 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: Andrew Nemhar TJ. McConnell for those guys to either beat 379 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,439 Speaker 1: their man off the dribble and draw help or to 380 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: score the basketball one on one. If Indiana can survive 381 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: the main breaking points of the series again getting the 382 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: ball across half court, not fucking up their post entries, 383 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 1: and knocking down ketch and shoo shots when they're open, 384 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,919 Speaker 1: will degenerate down into a one on one contest and 385 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 1: everything will come down to those guys in their ability 386 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: to score there. Siakam is going to be the huge 387 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: key here. We're gonna talk about it in our prediction. 388 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,399 Speaker 1: But any chance Indiana has to win this series I 389 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: think depends on Pascal Siakam being Finals MVP. A lot 390 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 1: of four or five ball screens to try to get 391 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 1: him switched on specifically Chet. I like him on Hartenstein 392 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: as well, but getting into these situations where he has 393 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 1: a chance to attack a big in space away from 394 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,120 Speaker 1: the rim or a small close to the rim. Those 395 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: are his major advantages. And then with Tyres Halliburton in 396 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 1: the second game in particular, he was actually able to 397 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,479 Speaker 1: hit quite a few threes and that unlocked some more 398 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: of his dribble drive game. Everything's going to be about 399 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: him hitting enough of those threes to where he can 400 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: actually get dribble penetration. A lot of the usual damage 401 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: that Indiana's offense does will be substantially less effective in 402 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 1: this series. The relentless transition pushes those kick aheads. We 403 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: just showed a whole video and playback on Saturday Night 404 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,679 Speaker 1: of how they killed the Knicks with that kind of stuff. 405 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City was the second best transition defense in the 406 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: NBA in the regular season per cleaning the glasses transition 407 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,919 Speaker 1: catch all metric. They're super athletic playing in that plane 408 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 1: of existence, and they just have such good floor balance. 409 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 1: They're always ready to get back all of that whirling 410 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: half court action that Indiana runs. The thunder will boch switches. 411 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 1: They'll miss rotations, but far less often than other teams, 412 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: and their speed closes gaps way quicker than other teams. 413 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 1: They won't get as many of the easy runouts that 414 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: they get from their ball pressure turnovers that flow into 415 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,639 Speaker 1: those transition sequences. Why, Because Oklahoma City is literally the 416 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: best team in the league at taking care of the basketball, 417 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: Indiana will have to rely on individual greatness more in 418 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: this matchup than they have in any other series to 419 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: this point, and I would argue that's far from the 420 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 1: strength of this particular basketball team. Last thing I want 421 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: to talk about before we get to Oklahoma City on 422 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,360 Speaker 1: offense is Tyre's Halliburton in what happens when he goes passive. 423 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: We talked about it earlier, but his usage rate in 424 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 1: this series is about half what it was against other 425 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: matchups in the regular season. We watched in the crunch 426 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: time video on playback when it's a consistent theme throughout 427 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 1: both of these games. He just isn't very aggressive, and 428 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 1: there's a lot of him standing around off the ball, 429 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 1: and in those situations he just has to find a 430 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 1: way to stay more involved in the offense. He had 431 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: a layup in crunch time of the game that they 432 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: almost won, the one where they were up one o 433 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,400 Speaker 1: seven to one oh three. The shot that he hit 434 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: to put them up one o seven to one oh 435 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: three with like it was like three minutes left before 436 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City, walked him down, came out of a stack 437 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: pick and roll where he was the screener that was 438 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: starting underneath the basket, so it was Nemhard up top, 439 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure Turner was the one setting the screen. 440 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,360 Speaker 1: And as Turner set the screen, and as Nemhard came off, 441 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 1: Haliburton backscreen for the role man and then relocated out 442 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,120 Speaker 1: to the left wing, and in the process he generated 443 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: himself a closeout opportunity. In that closeout opportunity, he was 444 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 1: able to beat his man off the dribble and make 445 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,160 Speaker 1: a little floater that crawled over the front of the rim, 446 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: and that put the Pacers up by four. That a 447 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: dynamic and not just in three man action, but even 448 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: in two man game. Keeping himself involved as a screener 449 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: is going to be key because when he sets screens, 450 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: he forces his man to actually react, and if he doesn't, 451 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: then you have a different kind of opening that occurs. 452 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: Pascal Siakam hit a pull up three. I've watched so 453 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:40,360 Speaker 1: much film this morning that I can't even remember which 454 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 1: game it was in. But one of the games, Tyres 455 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 1: Haliburton goes and he's getting kind of hugged by lou Dort, 456 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 1: and when he goes and sets a screen for Pascal Siakam, 457 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 1: lou Dort just stays hugged up on Haliburton. And so 458 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: as Siakam comes off of the ball screen, all of 459 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 1: a sudden, he's wide open because Haliburton set the screen 460 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: and his man didn't want to help, and so he 461 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 1: rows up into a wide open dribble off the dribble 462 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: three at the top of the key and he knocked 463 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,399 Speaker 1: it down. So again, when Halliburton is being played out 464 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,640 Speaker 1: of the game by ball pressure, which that's a whole 465 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 1: other separate thing that he needs to not allow that 466 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 1: to happen. But let's say he loses his confidence dribbling 467 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 1: in this matchup, He's gotta stay involved as a screener. 468 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: He cannot allow himself to become a spectator in this matchup. 469 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Oklahoma City on offense. 470 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 1: Matchups once again are going to depend on the lineup 471 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,719 Speaker 1: that Oklahoma City starts with. If they start Hartenstein, we'll 472 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 1: see Turner on Hartenstein, Siakam on Chet, Halliburton on lou Dort. 473 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 1: Indy interestingly likes nemhard on Shae more than Nie Smith 474 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: I've been super excited to see Niesmith get reps on Sheha, 475 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: and we will inevitably see that because obviously they're going 476 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: to try different looks over the series, but not a 477 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 1: ton of examples of it in the regular season. A 478 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 1: lot of Nemhard on Sga. We'll see how that works out. 479 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: They match athleticism with Nie Smith going on Jay Dubb 480 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: as his primary match. If the Thunder start sheet at 481 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: the five, I think we'll see Turner on Shet. I 482 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,400 Speaker 1: think we'll see Siakam on Dort. That's based on their 483 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,680 Speaker 1: second matchup this season. Haliburton on Caruso as like kind 484 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: of like guarding that like pick and pop guy that 485 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,439 Speaker 1: ended up being Kase on Wallace in the regular season. 486 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 1: A lot of damage done to the Pacers defense using 487 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 1: Haliburton in screens and having case On Wallace just slip 488 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: out and he got a big dunk in an important 489 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: sequence during the regular season out of that type of play. 490 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: But Cruso, obviously, as we know, can do similar things 491 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: out of that spot. So regardless of whether it's Caruso 492 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 1: or case On Wallace or whatever it is that they 493 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,719 Speaker 1: decide to decide to start, it'll be a guard that 494 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 1: I expect the Thunder to attack Haliburton in hedges with 495 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,120 Speaker 1: and again with those hedges, a lot of teams try 496 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 1: to take ghost screen threes out of hedges, meaning slipping 497 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 1: out towards a three point line. One of the things 498 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 1: that the Thunder did in this matchup, which I found 499 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: really fascinating is they attacked Haliburton's hedges with cuts like rolls. 500 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: And the fascinating thing there is like Haliburton has a 501 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: relatively easy method for defending ghost screens, where like when 502 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 1: the guy slips out of the screen, he gets super 503 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: high with his hands as he gets out of the hedge, 504 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 1: and that forces like an over the top pass that 505 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: is way more difficult for the guy to get a 506 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,440 Speaker 1: nice clean catch and shoot. Look out of these guys 507 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,239 Speaker 1: are just slipping right to the basket and Shay's just 508 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 1: you know, throwing a little quick bounce pass into the 509 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: gap or a little floating pass over the into the gap, 510 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 1: and Haliburton doesn't really have a chance to rotate there 511 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 1: because he's already going downhill towards the rims. So something 512 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 1: to keep an eye on there. And then again, the 513 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,120 Speaker 1: same matchups outside of that Nemhart on SGA and Nie 514 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: Smith on Jay Dubb. But as we mentioned with Oklahoma City, 515 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 1: with all the cross matches and stuff that's gonna occur, 516 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: and just with the depth of perimeter guard defensive talent, 517 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: you're gonna see all sorts of different sorts of matchups 518 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 1: in this series. Now, Indiana also brings a great deal 519 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: of full court ball pressure. As we know, the trick 520 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: here for Indiana is to not lose control of the 521 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: ball in those situation. We saw this a lot in 522 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,360 Speaker 1: Minnesota where a ball pressure can actually backfire if Shae 523 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 1: ends up just getting downhill. Shaye attacks ball pressure by 524 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,600 Speaker 1: making a quick move, getting you pinned on his side 525 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 1: and then just using it as the initial attack of 526 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: the possession and getting into the teeth of the defense. 527 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,199 Speaker 1: He's not trying to survive ball pressure, He's trying to 528 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 1: punish ball pressure. As a team. In this regular season, 529 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: we've also seen Oklahoma City attack Indiana's ball pressure with 530 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,359 Speaker 1: extended ball screens, sometimes out as far as half court, 531 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 1: where they'll basically run a pick and roll with Hartenstein screening. 532 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 1: Because again Chet didn't play in the regular season, but 533 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 1: we'll see Hart and Sign run out instead of screen 534 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 1: for Shay way out at half court, which then just 535 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: creates this massive runway for both players. Shay's now rolling 536 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 1: or driving really hard down one side, and here comes 537 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,400 Speaker 1: Hart and Sign rolling really hard down the other side. 538 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: They've had a lot of success with ballscreen attack in 539 00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 1: this matchup, Shae straight line drives are literally death. They 540 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: end up in so many layups and so many foul calls. 541 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 1: Indy has to find a way to contain the ball, 542 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: and one of the biggest kind of like subplots of 543 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 1: this series will be if either team can break the 544 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 1: other team of their primary defensive aggression game plan just 545 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 1: by not turning the ball over, getting the ball into 546 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 1: the teeth of their defense, and making the appropriate passes 547 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 1: and knocking down shots. If you can break either team's 548 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 1: base scheme, that's where things can get pretty interesting. Now 549 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 1: in ball screens, Indiana's generally loading up. They're at the 550 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 1: level most of the time to try to stop the 551 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 1: guard from getting downhill. That doesn't work as much when 552 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 1: the ball screens are extended out at half court, But 553 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:35,159 Speaker 1: when they can get the ball screens in more of 554 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,399 Speaker 1: a traditional spot closer to the rim, they can come 555 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: up to the level, and as long as the guard 556 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 1: doesn't reject the screen, they can contain the ball there. 557 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 1: But what is that what happens when you end up 558 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,959 Speaker 1: bringing your big up to the level. That's when you 559 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 1: start letting the role man get behind. And even though 560 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 1: Hartenstein struggled on defense in this matchup, he did get 561 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: several lob dunks in ball screens because Turner was up 562 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 1: at the level. We talked a little bit about this 563 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 1: earlier in the show. Even if Hartenstein has played off 564 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 1: the floor, Chet brings that same conundrum to the table. 565 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: Albeit he's not as good as a screener hart and 566 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 1: Stein's a better screener out on the perimeter getting those 567 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 1: initial bits of separation. But watch out for Chet as 568 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: a roleman in the series. He can pop. He certainly can. 569 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: I think that would be more useful his shooting ability 570 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: in those like spacing situations when other players are involved. 571 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 1: I think vertical spacing is going to be a key 572 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 1: in this series with the way that Indiana's guarding and 573 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 1: ball screens, and so Chet's ability to roll and finish 574 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 1: will be big. Now the pacers will pinch from the 575 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 1: weak side, nail help low man help to try to 576 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 1: shrink the floor. As has been the case for Oklahoma 577 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: City all season, it will come down to them passing 578 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 1: the ball effectively through that aggression and role players knocking 579 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 1: down threes. In their two regular season matchups, tell me 580 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 1: if you can see the difference. In the December game, 581 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City got zero point eighty six points per catch 582 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: and shoot jumper. They got just zero point nine to 583 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 1: one points per play when they passed out of pick roll, 584 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 1: and they managed just a one oh seven half court 585 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 1: offensive rating. That was the game that Indiana held a 586 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: late lead and almost won. In the late March game, 587 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City got one point three to six points per 588 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 1: catching cheo jumper, They scored one point three to eight 589 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 1: points per play when they passed out a pick and roll, 590 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 1: and they had a one fourteen offensive rating in the 591 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 1: half court. That was the game they blew the Pacers out. 592 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 1: So once again, it's the same dynamic that has existed 593 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: throughout this postseason run. When you look back through the 594 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: other losses that Oklahoma City has had in this postseason, 595 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 1: all four of them the Thunder dropped below a ninety 596 00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 1: offensive rating in the half court. They are rickety on 597 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 1: that end of the floor. Compared to their defense, and 598 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 1: Indiana does, in theory, have the personnel better equipped to 599 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 1: keep the ball in front and rotate out to shooters 600 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: and do all that sort of stuff, right, so they 601 00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 1: if Indiana wins games in this series, that's what it'll 602 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 1: look like, loading up on the ball, Oklahoma City missing shots, 603 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 1: them not having a successful half court offense game it 604 00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:12,480 Speaker 1: being close slate, Indiana having a chance. Shay absolutely torched 605 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: these guys in the regular season thirty nine points per game, 606 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 1: seven rebounds and eight assists, fifty six percent from the field, 607 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 1: sixty four percent from three twelve free throw attempts per game. 608 00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 1: He just absolutely fried him. The main catch and shoot 609 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 1: guys that burned him Lou Dort and Isaiah Joe. Those 610 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 1: guys hit fifteen threes in the two games. Now, what's 611 00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: interesting there is those are two guys that have been 612 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 1: way less effective as shooters in this postseason. Isaiah Joe's 613 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 1: role has been marginalized a little bit. Lou Dort is 614 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,240 Speaker 1: still taking a lot of threes. He's actually leading the 615 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 1: team and made threes per game in this postseason, but 616 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 1: he's doing it at a clip that's like barely over 617 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 1: thirty percent. Right, So like those are the two guys 618 00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:49,920 Speaker 1: that burned him in the regular season, Lou Dort, It's 619 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 1: actually funny you go back and watch him in the 620 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 1: regular season. He was just so much more aggressive and 621 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 1: confident as a catch and shoot guy than he looks 622 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 1: in this particular postseason, a little more hesitant to take 623 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,120 Speaker 1: contested threes in the postseason, and obviously just shooting them 624 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: at a lower percentage. Something to keep an eye on. 625 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 1: The trick for Indiana is going to be finding a 626 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: coverage that doesn't require them to leave shooters open, because, 627 00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 1: as mentioned, there have been games where Oklahoma City's offense 628 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 1: has cracked. But here they are. They're twelve and four 629 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: in this postseason, and their offense has looked pretty fucking 630 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 1: great outside of that, and in big moments like Game 631 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 1: four Minnesota, Minnesota alters their game plan, starts loading up 632 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 1: in the paint, forcing them to knock down catch and 633 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 1: jew jumpers. What did they do? They made them all right? 634 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,760 Speaker 1: So can in dey find a coverage that doesn't require 635 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 1: them to leave shooters open when Shae is let's say 636 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,920 Speaker 1: they switch, Well, Shane and Jay Dubb torched bigs on 637 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 1: switches in this matchup in the regular season, even Siakam 638 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,040 Speaker 1: Shae was going right by Siakam whenever he wanted to, 639 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: so I'm not sure switching necessarily covers the bases. And 640 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 1: then we talked earlier about how they lost control of 641 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: the role man when they defended ball screens two on two. 642 00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 1: They could try running a deeper D, but now you're 643 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,479 Speaker 1: running to drop against Sga, who's one of the more 644 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 1: gifted mid range shot makers in the league. So I 645 00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: don't really see a combination for Indiana that could hold 646 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 1: up in one on one situations or two on two situations. 647 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 1: So honestly, it feels to me like Indiana's only chance 648 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 1: on defense is to basically load up and hope guys 649 00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 1: miss shots. And that's where you cross your fingers and say, 650 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 1: it's the NBA Finals, it's June. These guys are young 651 00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,600 Speaker 1: Chet and j dub again, two co stars that have 652 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 1: become demonstrably more comfortable for Oklahoma City as the playoff 653 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:38,160 Speaker 1: run is progressed. Totally different vibe, totally different vibe in 654 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 1: the finals. Everything is so different, the media presence, just 655 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 1: the pomp and circumstances, the pomp and circumstance, the pressure 656 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,480 Speaker 1: everything is just tougher in this setting, and so I 657 00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 1: like that that really is the pathway. I view this 658 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 1: as an extremely poor matchup for the Indiana Pacers. We've 659 00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 1: talked so much about how good the Pacers and Thunder 660 00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 1: are at cap on the low hanging fruit and basketball. 661 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 1: If you guys remember, we spent a lot of time 662 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 1: talking about that over the last couple weeks. Through ball pressure, 663 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,880 Speaker 1: playing with pace and transition, just like taking advantage of 664 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:15,120 Speaker 1: simple advantages and extending advantages and finishing plays. These teams 665 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,080 Speaker 1: are two of the most well coached teams in the 666 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 1: league that play modern basketball in a way that maximizes 667 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:26,360 Speaker 1: your talent. But neither of these teams are very susceptible 668 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 1: to that sort of thing because of how sharp they are. 669 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 1: So this series has a high probability of coming down 670 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 1: to athletic superiority and superstar play. And I think the 671 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 1: Thunder are the more athletic team, and I think Shay 672 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 1: Gilgers Alexander is far and away the best player in 673 00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 1: the series. I think we'll see Indiana's offense break in 674 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,880 Speaker 1: many different ways. I think we'll see games where Tyres 675 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,040 Speaker 1: Haliburton is a complete non factor. I think we'll see 676 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,360 Speaker 1: games where they can't get the ball into the post. 677 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:00,960 Speaker 1: I think we'll see game where they can't hit a 678 00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,840 Speaker 1: jumper to save their lives. We could see each of 679 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,839 Speaker 1: those things in different losses in this series. I'm picking 680 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,839 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City in five. I'm guessing the home crowd in 681 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:16,080 Speaker 1: Indiana and that game plan of sagging in and packing 682 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 1: the paint and forcing guys in knockdown shots will lead 683 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 1: to a relatively comfortable win for Indiana in Game three. 684 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,719 Speaker 1: I'll say by around ten to fifteen points. But I 685 00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,839 Speaker 1: think Oklahoma City wins games one, two, four, and five 686 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 1: all in pretty comfortable fashion, probably with a blowout or 687 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:36,279 Speaker 1: two mixed in there. Indiana does have a path. It 688 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 1: starts and ends with their defense, if they can successfully 689 00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: load up on Shay and j Dubb and force the 690 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 1: game to be played through Oklahoma City's young players off ball, 691 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 1: and if they can be sharp enough with their closeouts 692 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,319 Speaker 1: to make them uncomfortable, which again is the key. If 693 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,120 Speaker 1: you let it doesn't matter if it's the NBA Finals. 694 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 1: If you let dudes just take open threes all series, 695 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: they will eventually get comfortable. But if you can press 696 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 1: them just enough to make them uncomfortable. There will be 697 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 1: games where Oklahoma City misses. From there, all roads lead 698 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:11,560 Speaker 1: back to Siakam. I think he has to be finals 699 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,240 Speaker 1: MVP for Indiana to win. He's gonna have more favorable 700 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,320 Speaker 1: matchups than Halliburton. He's going to be the most reliable 701 00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,640 Speaker 1: option that Indiana has when Oklahoma City starts switching everything. 702 00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 1: And his ability to quickly score and manage double teams 703 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 1: because again Oklahoma City will swarm him. That will be 704 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,200 Speaker 1: the key to their ability to score and the half court. 705 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 1: When things slowed down, guys got to hit catch and 706 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,560 Speaker 1: shoot shots. When Oklahoma City loads up, I think they 707 00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,880 Speaker 1: need to dominate the offensive glass as well. This is 708 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,239 Speaker 1: a team. In the regular season Oklahoma City did not 709 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,279 Speaker 1: do too poorly on the offensive glass against Indiana. I 710 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 1: think Indiana rebounded twenty eight percent of their own misses, 711 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 1: but Oklahoma City is allowing an offensive rebound on thirty 712 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,760 Speaker 1: three percent of opponents misses. In this playoff run, Indiana 713 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: can do some damage there, but to be clear, I 714 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 1: just don't see that as a super realistic path. I 715 00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,399 Speaker 1: think this is every bit as lopsided a series as 716 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,839 Speaker 1: Denver versus Miami in twenty twenty three, the talent gap 717 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: isn't necessarily as wide, but I think the matchup is 718 00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 1: just particularly brutal for the Pacers. So again, it's gonna 719 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:16,959 Speaker 1: be a showcase for some young talent in the NBA. 720 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,000 Speaker 1: Should be a fun series for all of us basketball 721 00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,439 Speaker 1: nerds out there. But I just think Oklahoma City has 722 00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 1: everything they need to dismantle this Indiana team, and I 723 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 1: expect them to do so relatively quickly. All Right, guys, 724 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,240 Speaker 1: That's all I have for today is always to sincerely 725 00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,719 Speaker 1: appreciate you guys for supporting the show. Tomorrow we have 726 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:35,640 Speaker 1: Sam Vassini coming on the show to do a deeper 727 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,319 Speaker 1: dive into the finals. Then on Wednesday, we're doing a 728 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 1: video on just some of the major storylines in this 729 00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:45,160 Speaker 1: particular series. That's our coverage before we load up into 730 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,400 Speaker 1: Thursday Night Live on YouTube. After the final buzzer of 731 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,000 Speaker 1: Game one, I will see you guys then,