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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. It's me Joey p Joe Pisa Pia and

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Speaker 1: today we've got a really fun show for you. Everybody's

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Speaker 1: always talking about sleepers, but should you be really buying

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Speaker 1: all the names that everybody's talking about. Well, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: tell you today. And to help us do it, of course,

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Speaker 1: is my boy the Welsh and one of the best

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Speaker 1: there is in the business. He is the head of

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Speaker 1: MLB Content at FTN Fantasy, he's the host of the

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Speaker 1: FTN Fantasy Baseball Podcast, and he's a seventy two time

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Speaker 1: NFBC NFFC League winner. He's Vlad Seddler. Everybody Vlad. I mean,

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Speaker 1: after fifty it's got to get boring, like taking out

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Speaker 1: the trash, right, we just keep winning these things, like

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Speaker 1: do you even care? Do you even get excited about

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Speaker 1: it anymore?

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Speaker 2: Always always do, but not as exciting as as coming

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Speaker 2: on a show with you guys, and especially you know Welsh.

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Speaker 3: I see quite frequently, Joe.

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen you in ages other than on the

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Speaker 2: tube every time I turn on on TV.

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Speaker 1: Well there's joke, that's right. I have a face for radio,

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Speaker 1: but it's all over television nowadays, two and and we're

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Speaker 1: always happy to come on and hang out with you

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Speaker 1: anytime as well. Vlad is one of I've always said

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Speaker 1: this like a there's a core group of people I

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Speaker 1: always say whore the best fantasy players, and Vlad, I

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Speaker 1: always say, is one of them. Adam Roness is another

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Speaker 1: guy that I've been in so many Expert League finals

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Speaker 1: in there's certain people that are just like you know,

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Speaker 1: if you make the playoffs, you're going to see those

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Speaker 1: names in certain leagues, and Vlad is one of those guys.

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Speaker 1: And I think you're the perfect person for this show

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Speaker 1: because we are Welsh talking about some of these trendy picks,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes these picks are guys that work out. We

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Speaker 1: just did a show we were talking about Kyle bradish

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Speaker 1: right and we were talking about he was the trendy

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Speaker 1: name last year as a sleeper and in April it

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Speaker 1: looked like crap because he had a six cra and

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Speaker 1: then people cut him and if you held on, things

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Speaker 1: got really good. So sometimes patience is also important with

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Speaker 1: some of these names, but Welsh it is really important.

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Speaker 1: It does feel like to start to attach your feelings

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Speaker 1: to some of these trending names and know whether or

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Speaker 1: not the price is too high or too low for you.

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Speaker 4: And this is also something where I know, E know,

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Speaker 4: it's funny. We've had people like in all different platform

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Speaker 4: forms of content that I do, so people still like.

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Speaker 5: Man, it seems kind of early. Everything seems kind of early.

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Speaker 5: It's not.

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Speaker 4: It's not too early, because baseball is another beast, but

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Speaker 4: some of the deficiencies of baseball to fantasy football, or

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Speaker 4: sometimes the amount of work that goes into fantasy baseball,

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Speaker 4: but that's also what makes it so special. The work

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Speaker 4: that you put into the payoff is something very I think.

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Speaker 4: I know that football definitely has it, but it is

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Speaker 4: something just another level up with fantasy baseball. So where

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Speaker 4: I'm going with that is finding ways to identify the

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Speaker 4: players that qualify as sleepers or undervalued and then starting

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Speaker 4: to put the research in and pinpointing, because we're going

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Speaker 4: to talk about ten names here that I might not

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Speaker 4: feel are all sleepers, LAD might not feel are all sleepers.

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Speaker 4: But you guys are going to get to go in

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Speaker 4: and make those decisions. So that's why we put a

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Speaker 4: lot of these great things together so we can do

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Speaker 4: some of the pre work for you, and then you

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Speaker 4: can dig a little bit deeper Vie'd like, or maybe

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Speaker 4: you really hone into something we're saying and pinpoint those

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Speaker 4: guys to help your draft strategy.

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Speaker 5: Because I can't tell you.

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Speaker 4: How many times in my early earlier is my twenty

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Speaker 4: I was first playing fantasy baseball. You just go in

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Speaker 4: and you're like, oh, wing this, babe, I got this,

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Speaker 4: I know the players. Nin you just gonna lose yourself

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Speaker 4: and it's like, what to.

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Speaker 1: Do what you used to do in your twenties?

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Speaker 4: Well with this mess in front of me, So have

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Speaker 4: a strategy. And there are a couple guys on this

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Speaker 4: list that are a part of every single team I

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Speaker 4: want to do. I don't you don't need to talk

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Speaker 4: to me about well, if I'm doing a little risk

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Speaker 4: or this type of build. Nope, a couple of players

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Speaker 4: I will take on every single build and hopefully we

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Speaker 4: can help you guys find those as well.

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Speaker 1: But it's I'm sure not early for you. I don't

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Speaker 1: know how many drafts you've done, But are you somebody

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Speaker 1: like because of no? But I mean this is a

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Speaker 1: great question because I think a lot of people will

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Speaker 1: start to do some of the higher stakes leagues like

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Speaker 1: you've done and had such success with, you know, how

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Speaker 1: do you ratio them out in terms of when you

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Speaker 1: want to do certain ones, Like are you somebody that

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Speaker 1: does want to have some there towards the end of

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Speaker 1: spring training so you get those teams healthy, or do

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Speaker 1: you want to have the majority of them earlier because

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Speaker 1: you like the early values because you read the board

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Speaker 1: better than other people? What is your strategy for the

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Speaker 1: high stakes and some of these players that are going

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Speaker 1: to probably pop up with these conversations, I mean.

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Speaker 2: The most important thing I do is I always take

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Speaker 2: a little bit of rest after the World Series, it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit of football season, and just let the

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Speaker 2: mind reset. And then as I begin to research and

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Speaker 2: work on projections and things like that, I do start

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Speaker 2: to get the draft itch, but I try to stay

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Speaker 2: on a sort of a regimented schedule. I kind of

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Speaker 2: know exactly how many leagues I'm going to do, what

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Speaker 2: formats and what types of what times of the year,

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Speaker 2: and so in January February, I'm basically drafting most of

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Speaker 2: these draft and hold leagues. This is where I'm learning

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Speaker 2: the player pools. You got fifty round leagues, These are

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Speaker 2: slow draft, so I have time to sort of research

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Speaker 2: as I go, get a feel for the player pool

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Speaker 2: and everything. And then as we get into February, you know,

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Speaker 2: we're doing the experts leagues, the tout wars, industry leagues, TGFBI,

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Speaker 2: those type of things, and then it gets closer to

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Speaker 2: high stake season and when we all go to Vegas.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm starting to do my allotment of fab teams,

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Speaker 2: and of course even the player pool and how we're

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Speaker 2: looking at these guys change, right because even I know

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Speaker 2: we're not really necessarily talking about closers today, but in

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Speaker 2: a draft and hold scenario where your team is locked

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Speaker 2: for the year, a closer is much more valuable than

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Speaker 2: in a fab league where you will be able to

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Speaker 2: pick these guys up via you know, free agent didding,

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Speaker 2: things like that.

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Speaker 4: And something I talk about a lot too is there

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Speaker 4: is definitely I think it's important to mention, so I

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Speaker 4: do it a lot, hopefully at nauseum, but it is important,

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Speaker 4: when I believe talking about fantasy Baseball, to deciphering the

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Speaker 4: differences between what high stakes and what a lot of

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Speaker 4: consumers are because I think a lot of people forget

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Speaker 4: as bit as content creators not saying you, but content creators.

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Speaker 4: Forget that the majority of the people you're talking to

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Speaker 4: don't play high stakes unless it's like literally a high

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Speaker 4: stakes podcast. But you know they're playing like Yahoo ESPN,

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Speaker 4: they're playing twelve ten team leagues. So making sure you

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Speaker 4: understand the difference is when you're talking about player pools

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Speaker 4: of you know, a draft and hold where there's closers

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Speaker 4: are going high er. Ellie de la Cruz is a

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Speaker 4: prime example of one of the biggest differences between what

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Speaker 4: draft and holds are doing to what consumer sites are

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Speaker 4: already pointing out. Is something you can check out. By

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Speaker 4: the way, I'll point out this horrific thing. I am

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Speaker 4: sandwiched in tout. I just got our tuent reference, our sheet,

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Speaker 4: and for a league, I'm sandwich between our dear friend

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Speaker 4: Eric Cross and Vlad said.

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Speaker 5: That's going to go for you. This kid is horrible.

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Speaker 3: What am I gonna do?

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Speaker 1: That's all right, don't forget everybody too. Get ready for

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Speaker 1: your drafts with fantasypros dot Com slash mock again. The

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Speaker 1: Draft Wizard is open for business. You can run a

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Speaker 1: simulation in five minutes for a draft. The multi user

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Speaker 1: draft software is open too, so you can fight other

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Speaker 1: people and start to do mock drafts with other people, friends, enemies, colleagues,

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Speaker 1: welsh whatever. Also, you can join our discord because we'll

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Speaker 1: be doing some mocks there with our discord folks too.

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Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot Com slash Chat it's free to join, so

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Speaker 1: go do that, and of course our draftkit too. Fantasypros

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Speaker 1: dot Com slash Draft Kit ready for you, open for

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Speaker 1: business and free, so make sure you are signing up

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Speaker 1: sinking all of your leagues to Fantasy Pros. Use the

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Speaker 1: tools in your draft and use your tools here at

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros to manage your season all year long. Again,

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Speaker 1: it's free and it's spectacular. Let's get to some of

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Speaker 1: the names. Let's jump in.

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Speaker 4: Well, Joe, I just want to mention one thing I apologize,

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Speaker 4: but also in that draft kit, yeah, state and prospect

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Speaker 4: information from the show.

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Speaker 5: It's not just redraft, so it's all drafts set.

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Speaker 1: Maybe Eric Cross Aha, see what I did there, because

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Speaker 1: you have to draft next to Tim. See we'll have

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Speaker 1: Eric on this show soon too. Let's start. We want

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Speaker 1: O'Neill cruise on the Pittsburgh Pirates last year. Everybody's darling Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: it was like that family guy sketch where it's like

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Speaker 1: and the season begins and it's over. That was kind

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Speaker 1: of like the O'Neal cruise twenty twenty three season. At

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Speaker 1: least it felt like that. But this year we're right back.

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Speaker 1: He's the sixty seventh ranked player right now, Vlad, since

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Speaker 1: you're the guest, we'll start with you on this one.

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Speaker 1: Do you believe that this is a player that is

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Speaker 1: viable at his current price or do you think you're

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Speaker 1: gonna let him slip through your fingers to somebody else's team.

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Speaker 2: So over the years I have become less i'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: more risk averse and a player like O'Neal Cruise and

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Speaker 2: the fact that it's really hard to project. You know,

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Speaker 2: the volatility is is very large, right because even in

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Speaker 2: a full healthy season, there are things that he can

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Speaker 2: hurt you in and he can slump over the course

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Speaker 2: of the season and providing maybe a very low batting

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Speaker 2: average or could get hurt again. You know, he's a

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Speaker 2: very kind of very active player, more so I think

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Speaker 2: than most players. And the upside is incredibly tantalizing. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is a guy that could he could even beat

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Speaker 2: out Ellie de la Cruz, right, I mean Ellie de

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Speaker 2: la Cruz is a second third round pick. Right now

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Speaker 2: you're getting O'Neil Cruz. And there are some similarities, of course,

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Speaker 2: some differences a few rounds later. But he's somebody that

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Speaker 2: I am interested in in in getting around his price

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Speaker 2: and in fact actually dressed for the occasion.

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Speaker 1: Oh, he's got the shirt. If you're watching on the YouTube,

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Speaker 1: just set the Oneal Cruise shirt is in there. How

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Speaker 1: much of that sets you back? That's the real question.

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Speaker 1: Or is that what they gave you for winning one

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Speaker 1: of the many NFBC leagues.

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Speaker 3: I think it was Christmas time. It was like, you know,

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Speaker 3: I was looking.

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Speaker 2: I was like, oh, let me get a Seegar Rangers

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Speaker 2: shirt a month see, just you know, a little little

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Speaker 2: little Christmas present for myself.

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Speaker 1: Month shirt shirt.

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Speaker 3: I'm a Dodger guy.

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Speaker 1: There's got a ton of holes in it, all right,

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Speaker 1: just like his swing. All right, let's get to uh

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Speaker 1: Welsh's take on Cruz here, because look, this is a player,

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Speaker 1: like lad said, very tantalizing in terms of skill set, power, speed.

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Speaker 1: He's got all those things. He does come with strikeout

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Speaker 1: potential too. But we're talking about maybe you know the

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Speaker 1: adversity to risk. Cruz is the forty six player right

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Speaker 1: now in the ECR, there's some guys like Alex Bregman,

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Speaker 1: who's pretty you know, lock and load and you know

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Speaker 1: what you're getting at him going five spots afterwards. So

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Speaker 1: how do you make that decision between a player like Cruise,

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Speaker 1: which is so much upside but unproven, as opposed to

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Speaker 1: a player like Bregman. So is Cruz a worthy sleeper

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Speaker 1: in your opinion?

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Speaker 4: By the way, sixty eighth sixty eighth is the average

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Speaker 4: ECR I believe I think you said forty six.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm looking right now at the hitters. That's part

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Speaker 1: of me. So I'm looking just at the oh comparison.

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Speaker 1: So I am sort of right and you're a sort

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Speaker 1: of right. We're sort of right together.

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Speaker 4: So we will stamp a bye next to Ladd and

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Speaker 4: we will stamp for me by absolute bye. O'Neill my

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Speaker 4: biggest struggle, by the way, he actually was named after

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Speaker 4: Paul O'Neill, And for some reason, I just wo own

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Speaker 4: I do that O'Neill cruise to say that it does

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Speaker 4: sound cool but also makes you sound stupid when you

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Speaker 4: don't do it right. O'Neil Cruz is the player I

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Speaker 4: want on every single team.

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Speaker 5: I do not care about the bill.

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Speaker 4: We can talk about risk aversion and stuff like that,

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Speaker 4: but as you move beyond into your draft, the risk

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Speaker 4: is a lot less. What's risky is taking a player

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Speaker 4: like Ellie de la Cruz, who's going off twenty two

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Speaker 4: in NFBC drafts top twenty five player, who yes, could

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Speaker 4: be the number one overall player projections, even though I

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Speaker 4: think it was Cardi's that had this, like, oh, by

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Speaker 4: the way, he's the most overvalued player, still almost out

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Speaker 4: of it at twenty forty.

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Speaker 5: I don't know what we're talking about here.

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Speaker 4: There's still a value here, but we also know high

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Speaker 4: high strikeouts, crazy low launch angle with a not good

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Speaker 4: barrel rate, which is going to lead to high ground balls.

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Speaker 4: That's everything that he was last year, so we haven't

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Speaker 4: seen and he just plummeted on the back half of

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Speaker 4: last year. So that's risky. As you move down, that

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Speaker 4: risk aversion starts to fall and you look at a

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Speaker 4: guy like O'Neil Cruz who has made some of those adjustments.

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Speaker 4: He had like a twenty percent strikeout rate in a

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Speaker 4: few games he did play he was running again. We

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Speaker 4: saw the back half of twenty twenty two him also

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Speaker 4: make those adjustments, so the strikeouts were going.

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Speaker 5: So here's my feeling on it.

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Speaker 4: I think he can have a better batting average than

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Speaker 4: Elie Dela Cruz. I think he's a bigger power projection

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Speaker 4: than Ellie. I don't think he's going to take the

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Speaker 4: stolen basis. I think that's something Ellie can take. But

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Speaker 4: I legit think that Oneil Cruz can beat him in

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Speaker 4: four of the five categories. Based on NFBC numbers, you

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Speaker 4: can get him fifty spots. A difference based on the

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Speaker 4: others it is probably around twenty or thirty. I want

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Speaker 4: Cruise on every single team because it is a power

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Speaker 4: speed combo with a semi batting average risk that I

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Speaker 4: think I can make up in other spots. And I

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Speaker 4: love that we've already seen improvement. I love to see

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Speaker 4: the barrel rate go. But he improved his launch angle.

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Speaker 4: It's solid ish hard hit numbers that we just don't

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Speaker 4: have enough of a sample size from last year. And

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Speaker 4: I think he is a must have player, so by

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Speaker 4: as a sleeper.

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Speaker 2: One last lobbying about him, by the way, uh, you

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Speaker 2: know he the other part is the underratedness of the

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Speaker 2: top of that offense, Like if you are getting a

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Speaker 2: full shirt out of Cabrian Hayes and Brian Reynolds. I

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Speaker 2: know it's Pittsburgh. I know it's not super exciting, but

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Speaker 2: it is very enticing. And you know, my projections are

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Speaker 2: our projections, the vdps, I mean, they are pretty reasonable

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Speaker 2: for him. It might seem high, but it's really in line.

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Speaker 2: If you're getting six hundred plus plate appearances out of

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Speaker 2: O'Neal Cruz specifically, even a top of the lineup, you're

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Speaker 2: looking at eighty plus runs easy, maybe twenty five thirty

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Speaker 2: home runs, twenty to twenty five stolen bases, even with

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Speaker 2: a little bit of batting average ding, you're looking at

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Speaker 2: a great value there By.

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Speaker 4: That's a second round play, that's at least a second

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Speaker 4: round player. So that's the way you're getting a guy

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Speaker 4: in the fourth, fifth, sixth round that has second round upside.

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Speaker 4: I'm not trying to make this about slamming La de

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Speaker 4: la Cruz, like La da la Cruz you're taking in

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Speaker 4: the second.

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Speaker 1: Or personal who could feel that's what it feels like

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Speaker 1: to me. I just want you to know it's coming

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Speaker 1: off that way. Ask anybody else feels that, drop your

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Speaker 1: comments below on the YouTube channel, please and tell Welsh

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Speaker 1: to slow his role. Bobby Miller the next guy on

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Speaker 1: our list to talk about here with the Dodgers. Welsh,

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Speaker 1: I'll start with you on this one. I always like

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Speaker 1: it whenever a young pitcher has guys in front of

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Speaker 1: him in the rotation. You bring in Glass now when

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Speaker 1: Yamamoto now to that dodge of rotation, it takes a

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Speaker 1: lot of pressure off a young kid. They don't have

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Speaker 1: to feel the burden of carrying a rotation, which is

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Speaker 1: something I've seen way on a lot of young pitchers.

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Speaker 1: It waited on guys like Max Schus are young in

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Speaker 1: their career. It waited on Garrett Cole right until Garret

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Speaker 1: Cole got to Houston and really things are to turn around. Ironically,

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Speaker 1: it was Verlander at the head of both of those

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Speaker 1: rotations for those two guys I'm just talking about. But still,

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Speaker 1: it's good to let those guys figure things out on

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Speaker 1: their own. Not feel that way. Walker Bueler is gonna

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Speaker 1: be a guy that's going to be a late to

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Speaker 1: start the season, it feels like from what we're hearing,

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Speaker 1: So Bobby Miller is going to be one of the

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Speaker 1: guys from the jump from day one. We know the

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Speaker 1: hype around the Dodgers. We know there's a Dodger guy

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Speaker 1: here we're gonna talk about in the second here to him.

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Speaker 1: But last year one hundred and twenty four innings for him,

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Speaker 1: he was eleven and four wins are not gonna be

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Speaker 1: a problem for him. The era is at three seven six.

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Speaker 1: So are you buying Bobby Miller at his current price

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Speaker 1: as a sleeper or is this another one where you

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Speaker 1: think maybe a little bit too much hype because the

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Speaker 1: Dodgers are getting so much press.

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Speaker 5: And we know exactly where this is going.

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Speaker 1: In I'm binding you first because the same Oh oh

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Speaker 1: well maybe maybe not, who knows. Let's see, let's see, well.

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Speaker 4: Bye, this is this is a bye for me. Just

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Speaker 4: go quick, because I I'd rather have more of lad stuff.

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Speaker 4: I've said this a lot with Bobby Miller. Five pitches

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Speaker 4: ranked one hundred plus on the Stuff plus metric Ino

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Speaker 4: Serius's two of which I think it was two or

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Speaker 4: maybe three were over like one twenty five. Immensely high

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Speaker 4: fastball and slider. He had low walk rates last year,

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Speaker 4: which you have to love six percent. He overperformed or

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Speaker 4: underperformed his expected ERA three seven six expected was three

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Speaker 4: forty high k percentage, which I actually don't think shows up

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Speaker 4: enough on this plate. My only worry is a the

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Speaker 4: six man rotation, and if everybody saw I think today

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Speaker 4: they re signed Clinton Kershaw or it's like looming around

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Speaker 4: that it's about to happen.

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Speaker 5: So you've got a lot of like Bueller's not going

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Speaker 5: to start.

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Speaker 4: The season, and you've got Kershaw, and then you've got

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Speaker 4: Paxton and it's like, who the hell is going to

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Speaker 4: pitch early? My only problem is there's a lot of

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Speaker 4: cooks in that kitchen that you could not only if

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Speaker 4: you have six men rotation, you don't have two weekly starts,

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Speaker 4: and but you also could taper him back at the

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Speaker 4: back end of the year. If you have a healthy Bueler,

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Speaker 4: you have a healthy Kershaw, You've got Yamamoto, and you

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Speaker 4: want to focus on that. I'm trying to move away

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Speaker 4: from that that. I think with the good command, with

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Speaker 4: great pitches of power fastball, I think he could put

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Speaker 4: up some big numbers. And this is one of those

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Speaker 4: guys that I can pop. So for me, Bobby Miller is.

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Speaker 1: A buy Glad, Bobby Miller.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I like Bobby Miller too, And just for the record,

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Speaker 2: I am a little bit harder on my Dodgers, but

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Speaker 2: I mean it. You can theoretically even try to just

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Speaker 2: draft all the Dodgers starting pitcher. Probably not going to work,

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Speaker 2: but you usually know you're going to be near the

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Speaker 2: top of your roto standings with a bunch of Dodger

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Speaker 2: pitchers bi Old for the last five seasons since twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 2: not no team is even close. Maybe Houston as far

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Speaker 2: as like you know, team Era for amongst starters, and

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Speaker 2: it's such a fantastic bunch. I think everyone's going to

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Speaker 2: have the same jokes. Oh, at some point, you know,

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Speaker 2: when glass Now and Paxston get hurt and you know

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Speaker 2: Bueller and Kershaw will take over. One thing that maybe

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Speaker 2: since the Kershaw sign re signing is so new, and

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Speaker 2: even though he may not be available till the second

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Speaker 2: half of the season, most likely the underrated part there

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Speaker 2: is having him in that locker room, having his veteran

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Speaker 2: presence to continue to work with Bobby Miller, I think

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Speaker 2: is a good thing. And then Bobby Miller has himself

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Speaker 2: super talented. The guy throws ninety nine. I think there's

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Speaker 2: a little bit of growth there with his swinging strike rate.

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Speaker 2: I think last year it was just a little over

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Speaker 2: eleven percent. And I you know, my system VDP has

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Speaker 2: him top twenty five as a top the twenty fifth

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Speaker 2: top starting pitcher. And if you're digging into sort of

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Speaker 2: the above the like the NFBC fifties, and you're going

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Speaker 2: into more like the one hundred and fifty dollars range entries,

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Speaker 2: his ADP is even higher, so he's going a little

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Speaker 2: closer to the Eflyn Grayson Rodriguez range.

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Speaker 3: So he does have a lot to prove.

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Speaker 2: The six man is a concern if that's going to

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Speaker 2: be the case, you know, but five great offerings wins

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Speaker 2: aren't going to be a problem, as you know, on

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Speaker 2: that team, and he's pretty solid.

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Speaker 3: So I'm a fan of Bobby Miller.

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Speaker 4: By last thing I want to add, I just did

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Speaker 4: a short social short. By the way, if you don't

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Speaker 4: follow us on any of the socials, make sure you

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Speaker 4: do Instagram TikTok. I don't think those videos are on TikTok,

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Speaker 4: but we got the YouTube shorts here to make sure

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Speaker 4: you're locked into that. The Instagram I did a social

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Speaker 4: short on ADP versus experts rank There is no picture

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Speaker 4: with a bigger positive difference between where they've ranked and

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Speaker 4: where they're actually being drafted inside the top one hundred

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Speaker 4: than Bobby Miller. So he's inside the top one hundred,

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Speaker 4: but he has the biggest difference where guys are ranking

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Speaker 4: him versus where he's going in ADP, and that is

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Speaker 4: people are drafting them later than he's being ranked. He

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Speaker 4: is the number one starting pitcher on that marker, and

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Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of good positive things in

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Speaker 4: his future.

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Speaker 1: A guy ranked at one oh five overall outfielder for

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Speaker 1: the Texas Rangers, Evan Carter. Now, Vlad, I want to

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Speaker 1: start with you on this one. Carter obviously good skill set,

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Speaker 1: a guy that I know a lot of people are

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Speaker 1: very excited about. My big concern with Carter is still

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Speaker 1: the frame. Now. I've told this to Welsh many times

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Speaker 1: in our discussions about Carter. I'm a little worried about

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Speaker 1: him holding up over a full season with the frame

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Speaker 1: he's got currently. He's one of these guys that I

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Speaker 1: want to see what he comes into camp looking like.

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Speaker 1: I haven't seen any pictures yet. I know it's kind

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Speaker 1: of early. We're not quite at pictures and catchers yet.

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Speaker 1: But if this guy puts on a little bit of weight,

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Speaker 1: that will make me feel better about that concern. But regardless,

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Speaker 1: the skill set is enticing where he's going right now. Again,

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Speaker 1: he's kind of a buzzworthy sleeper guy. Is this a

434
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 1: sleeper that you're buying or selling?

435
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,800
Speaker 2: You know, it's very difficult for me to do it

436
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:38,160
Speaker 2: at this price tag, even you know, even he's going

437
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 2: closer to one twenty one to thirty in a lot

438
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:41,919
Speaker 2: of drafts I've been in lately, and I just cannot

439
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 2: pull the trigger. I cannot pull the trigger on him

440
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,199
Speaker 2: over a Sayah Suzuki or in nic Costellanos, just a

441
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 2: little bit more solidified veterans. My problem, for example is,

442
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 2: you know, last year, I feel like he's being overhyped

443
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 2: because of that phenomenal success towards the end of last

444
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,879
Speaker 2: season and in the playoffs, such a prominent roster spot

445
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:06,119
Speaker 2: or lineup spot in that order, and there were things

446
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 2: like he hit three zero six. But if you look

447
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,879
Speaker 2: under the hood, a four to twenty one batting average

448
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 2: on balls in play batting average, he's probably going to

449
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 2: be closer to the two fifties to sixties range may

450
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 2: not hit twenty home runs. Granted he's got a little

451
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 2: bit of speed. Those are the negatives, a little bit

452
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,680
Speaker 2: of positives if well, anything having to do with Cory

453
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 2: Seger being hurt is not a positive. But if for

454
00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 2: whatever reason, Corey Seeger is not ready to start on

455
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,639
Speaker 2: the opening day rotation, the way that they're going to

456
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 2: mix up the right's and lefties, Carter could get the

457
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 2: opportunity to hit second between Marcus Simeon and Adolies Garcia.

458
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 2: But that offense has a lot of switch hitters, a

459
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 2: lot of lefties that could move in, and if he's

460
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 2: not doing well, he's not going to be a top

461
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 2: half of the top half of the order guy. So

462
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,639
Speaker 2: I can't do it at this price. Unfortunately, I'm out

463
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 2: on Evan Carter Welsh.

464
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,160
Speaker 1: I can't do it either, especially Glaine Thomas is right

465
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 1: around there, which is again one of those players last

466
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: year we were very much in on because he was

467
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 1: free square guy. Twenty eight homers, one hundred runs scored.

468
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,879
Speaker 1: I'm saying we're gonna copy and paste, but twenty steals,

469
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 1: I mean, you're giving this lane. Thomas right around the

470
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 1: same place as Evan Carter like that, I'm sorry, Like,

471
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 1: there's just no way unless it's a keyber League situation.

472
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 1: But even then, I want to win now for the

473
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: most part, So I'm a pass too. You make it

474
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:22,640
Speaker 1: a three for three in the sweep.

475
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,200
Speaker 4: I thought, because obviously you don't want these to all

476
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 4: be we agree on every single thing and blah blah blah,

477
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 4: And I thought, this is gonna be the one where

478
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 4: I was gonna get to differ and be the super

479
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 4: smart guy. But we're gonna make it three for three. Sell,

480
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 4: I'm I am a cell. You actually like you said

481
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 4: it really well too. What's difficult about saying the cell

482
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 4: is the cost.

483
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 1: The price.

484
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 4: It's outside the top one hundred, and that is I

485
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 4: feel as you move along the draft, the whole like

486
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 4: this guy is too risky, blah blah blah just becomes

487
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 4: like less and less and less, and you're and you

488
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,719
Speaker 4: are in that general range. But I personally feel that

489
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 4: the number one rookie outfielder is going to be White

490
00:20:58,280 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 4: Langford at the end of the year.

491
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 5: Evan Carter doesn't hit lefties.

492
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 4: Never did I think the stat Chris Blessing said at

493
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 4: first pitch on a panel that I was on they're

494
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 4: worry about Evan Carter. Was he had one extra base

495
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,440
Speaker 4: hit versus lefties between the miners, the Majors and the

496
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 4: playoffs the entire year last year. So he destroys righty's,

497
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 4: he struggles with lefties. There is a smaller frame. I've

498
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 4: never been a huge He's going to be a big

499
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 4: power guy. I do think he could be a twenty

500
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 4: twenty guy. And hell, let's give a guy credit when

501
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 4: you hit third in the World Series on the road.

502
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 4: I was at the freaking game. Thank you to Fantasy

503
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 4: Pros and all my guys, getting my hookup with the

504
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 4: right people over at game time and everything. But I'm

505
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 4: not in. I'm not in on Evan Carter. I think

506
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 4: White Lang for could jump him, and you guys mentioned

507
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 4: a whole lot of players, by the way, that just

508
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 4: don't really float for me that I would probably rather have,

509
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 4: So I would pass.

510
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 5: On Evan Carter. I am a cell as a sleeper.

511
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's possible for us to do

512
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 1: a show and not talk about Cole Ragans anymore. Kansas

513
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: City starting pitcher. He's at one twenty one overall, Welsh.

514
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: I want to keep this brief because there's so much

515
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 1: of us talking about him, so I feel like you're

516
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:01,719
Speaker 1: going to be bye here. And I think it kind

517
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: of makes sense because I think there's enough upside where

518
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: you feel good about what you saw at the end

519
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 1: of last year. When it comes to Ragons, what's your

520
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: thought process on him at this current value? Is a

521
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 1: sleeper pick worthy?

522
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is tough because we just did talk about

523
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 4: him in the previous episode. If you guys didn't listen

524
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 4: on the Undervalued starting Pitchers.

525
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 5: There's a part of me that does want to.

526
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,120
Speaker 4: Say sell because it is a really big walk rate.

527
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 4: But my argument in what makes him so interesting the

528
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 4: last episode is maybe, like you could see with Evan Carter,

529
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 4: he is just kind of a value Like for all

530
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 4: of the upside and what he did as a Kansas

531
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 4: City Royal, he's not really being priced like the Trieke

532
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 4: Scooble or like a lot of these other guys. He's

533
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 4: not given that his biggest discrepancy are the walks. I

534
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 4: hope he changes it, but the Royals put him in

535
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 4: a great position. Fastball location went way up. It's actually

536
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 4: pretty decently defended. Team Bobby Witt obviously covering that I

537
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:54,360
Speaker 4: am gonna say bye.

538
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 5: I'm gonna say bye based on his.

539
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: Cost glad you got a way excitement versus the value

540
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 1: on the draft. So where does that leave Cole Ragan's

541
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:02,679
Speaker 1: for you?

542
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 2: I mean, he is a darling of fantasy baseball people

543
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 2: and baseball people like because what we saw down that

544
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 2: stretch was absolutely brilliant. And you know, I don't know

545
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 2: if Nick Pollock, I don't know if he listens to

546
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 2: this show, might do well.

547
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 1: He's a huge he is a huge fan of of ours.

548
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 1: We know that.

549
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 6: Okay, okay, well, I am for the record, I'm conflicted

550
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 6: because I am very confident where I am not confident, right,

551
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 6: I'm not going to say, oh, I feel so strongly.

552
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 2: There's such a big player pool. You can't say oh,

553
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 2: I'm for sure on this, for sure on that. You

554
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 2: have your strong feelings and then you have your weaker ones.

555
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 2: And I'm kind of in the middle of him.

556
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 3: The reason why I'm.

557
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 2: Leaning lean, I'm leaning cell is, first of all, it's

558
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: the other pitchers that go in his range, you know,

559
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 2: the Kyle Bradishes, you know, gets guys with a little

560
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 2: bit better situations. The control is a little bit concerning he,

561
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: you know, and a half percent last season, eighty nine

562
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: percent in the minors a couple of years even in

563
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 2: Double A. Some struggles there, and then if you really

564
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 2: dig in and look at the quality of opponent or

565
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 2: lack of quality down the stretch when he was just

566
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 2: mowing everyone down, it was super watered down versions of

567
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 2: White Sox lineups Pittsburgh, Oakland, Detroit, the Angel striking out

568
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: a thirty five percent clip. So I think there's gonna

569
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: be a little give back. I think it'll be respectable.

570
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 2: You'll have like a three six, three seven ERA from him.

571
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 2: Maybe you'll get better than that. You'll get a lot

572
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 2: of strikeout. So I am conflicted. I'm leaning on the cell.

573
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,199
Speaker 2: The one thing I love. You know, last year that

574
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: change up was insane, an eleven run value, you know

575
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 2: over on the Baseball Savant Model, one ninety two slugging

576
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 2: percentage against.

577
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 3: So he's incredible. Totally conflicted, leaning on the cell.

578
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: Another guy to another pitch we're going to talk about

579
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 1: is Bailey over? Before we do, though, I want to

580
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 1: tell you what kind of psychopath Nick Pollock and Alex

581
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: Fastar because I'm gonna dm with them that goes back

582
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: to every single year we do a show together where

583
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: the two of them, I find the players that they

584
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: disagree on and we hammer it out, and then I

585
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: decide who's right and wrong. It's a fun show. It's

586
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 1: become a tradition here. We do it towards the end

587
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 1: of the draft prep season. They were still arguing about

588
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: these players well into late September early October, even after

589
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: the regular season ended. That's how nuts those two guys are,

590
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: and I love them for it. They're my favorites. Bailey

591
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 1: Ober another guy who was on that last show too,

592
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: but we want to get Lad's opinion on him, because

593
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: you already kind of got ours. Five to one, strikeout

594
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 1: walk Rayhield. This is a player I want. Those are

595
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: the kind of pictures that have success at the big

596
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 1: league level for me. Vladen, I think that you saw

597
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 1: enough from Ober where not only were you excited about that,

598
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 1: but also potentially excited about what next level could be there.

599
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: And this is a guy that's going beyond Raggins here.

600
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: We're talking about a forty player difference roughly in most

601
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: drafts here and some of the rankings on fantasypros dot

602
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,239
Speaker 1: com slash rankings, so Glad. Where do you stand on

603
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: ober Is he a better value for you in terms

604
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:54,479
Speaker 1: of sleeper pitchers?

605
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 3: Indeed?

606
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, And he's not oberly sexy like a.

607
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: You had that one chamber and you're waiting all that one.

608
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe well a lot. There are a lot of

609
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 3: things to love about him.

610
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, it's it's the control rate, right,

611
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 2: I mean he's been at five percent and right around

612
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 2: there over the last few seasons. You know last year,

613
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 2: he over the last two years, he's made about what

614
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: I think almost two hundred innings worth of starts. And

615
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: he's always been outperforming his expected peripherals. If you're looking

616
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 2: at an ERA of around three to three over the

617
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 2: last couple of seasons in relation to a Sierra X

618
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 2: crax fit all that closer to three eight three four.

619
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,239
Speaker 2: This is the guy that can continue to outdo that.

620
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: I think he is phenomenal. I love the home park,

621
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 2: the division, though they'll probably play them a little less,

622
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 2: and he's great. I mean like a ADP in the

623
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 2: one fifty one sixty range and a fifteen teamer that's

624
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: around ten or eleven. He is a guy that's going

625
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 2: to uh sore up the draft boards in a different way, right,

626
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 2: because the Reagans is like the sex big strikeouts. Guy

627
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 2: Ober still has the strikeouts, but it's about the control.

628
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 2: If you get those like Logan web Zach Efflin types,

629
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: they're not overly exciting, but you load up a bunch

630
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 2: of those guys on your team and you're going to

631
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 2: be contributing to yourself winning at the end.

632
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 1: Of the year. Welsh, I'm already on over You know

633
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: that from the last show, and I think you are too,

634
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 1: so just for those who missed last week's show, or

635
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: should I say the last show we did, it's a

636
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,199
Speaker 1: player that just makes a lot of sense to me

637
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: at the current value in terms of you're looking to

638
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 1: build out, that rotation seems like a really good place.

639
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: It starts a lot of guys in this range that

640
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 1: have the youth upside, but also enough of I think

641
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 1: a sample size that you can really get excited about.

642
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, Vlad said earlier, you don't always feel like overly

643
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 4: confident about every single player, but I feel overly.

644
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 5: Confident about that.

645
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: You know why am I even here? I don't want

646
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: to do this show anymore.

647
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, but yeah, yeah, everything it's a command Pitcher.

648
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 4: I actually think you can make a team I actually

649
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 4: did in my first DC of the year. I was

650
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 4: just like it was Kirby Yamamoto. I was just going

651
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 4: these safe guys. They didn't overpower strike I know exactly,

652
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 4: they didn't overpower the The strikeouts are just pump out.

653
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 4: You know a lot of people are pushing you know,

654
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 4: ten K per nine and really high K percentages.

655
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, like I feel confident.

656
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 4: With my whip, my era, I'm gonna get wins and

657
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 4: over is that type of guy.

658
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 5: Really.

659
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 4: Walk numbers are always elite, strikeouts are fine. Made great

660
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 4: usage of what he had last year, and we have

661
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 4: seen positive development in the Twins with a rotation of

662
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,879
Speaker 4: all these guys. Chris Paddock is another one of those

663
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 4: guys that he's gonna come back this year. He looks

664
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 4: like a fun guy to take after. I do think

665
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 4: there's an interesting dynamic of chasing big strikeouts with improve

666
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 4: a hopeful improved walk rate of Reagans versus the safety

667
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 4: and maybe like not insane.

668
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 5: Upside of Bailey Ober.

669
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 4: There could be a strategy to your team thing that

670
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 4: you take in play here, but you know what costs

671
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 4: given maybe I am leaning a little bit more Reagans

672
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 4: in that cell side when you know you could get

673
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 4: over like you know, fifty picks sixty picks later, and

674
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 4: he's a real good backbone.

675
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 5: To your rotation.

676
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 1: There you go and again get out there, start doing

677
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: some of these mocks. You can see how to build

678
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 1: your rotations out there. Sink all your league gigs. Go

679
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: to fantasypros dot com. Slash mock. Used the draft simulator there.

680
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: Use draft Wizard to make sure that you are understanding

681
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: where these values might be, because I think it's very important.

682
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: You can also, you know, create your own cheat sheets

683
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: and manage off that off some of the shows, and

684
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: you know, you got great people like vad said Ler

685
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,239
Speaker 1: and all these other folks here who are ranking all

686
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 1: over the place. You can use rankings to make sure

687
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: that you can get the best out of your draft

688
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: even when you're practicing. Next guy on our list is

689
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: a guy you know I love, Edward Julian of the

690
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: Minnesota Twins. We're gonna stay in Minnesota. One hundred and

691
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: eighty second ranked player over on Fantasy Pros. Welsh. First

692
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: time I saw this kid was last year in spring training.

693
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 1: You know that and I was going on and on

694
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: about him. Got a little cup of coffee early on,

695
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,479
Speaker 1: a little kind of getting your feet wet. It took

696
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: him a little while to get comfortable. When he did,

697
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: it started to look good. I'm trying to throw out, like,

698
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: who I think he's going to be someday. And I'm

699
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: not saying he's a comp in terms of what he

700
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: looks like as a player, but in terms of like

701
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: a statistical player. Remember Jose Vedro at second base where

702
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: you just kind of locked and loaded him and he

703
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 1: loved where he was and he like, this guy's just steady.

704
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: I feel like Julian can grow into that kind of

705
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 1: Jose Vidro s player. What do you think about Julian

706
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: do you think? I mean, one of the two seems

707
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: like a value I can't pass on. But what do

708
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: you think?

709
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 4: And we can nickname him Steady Eddie, maybe Beddy Eddie,

710
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 4: Julian Eddi Eddie.

711
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 5: You know, it's funny.

712
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 1: There's a lot of way better than that last thing

713
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: with the OBErs.

714
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 4: You guys, I was really trying to figure out if

715
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 4: I could do if I could create an Obertley like overtly,

716
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 4: you know, I was like I was trying to do.

717
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 5: That, but I didn't want to mess.

718
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: It up too much. I almost a bit when I

719
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: take my headphones off and I walk off the show,

720
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: but I'm not going to because I know that we

721
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: have to drop that whole thing where it says I'm

722
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 1: out of the office on there and it does all

723
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: the thing. It's a lot more worse.

724
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 4: Twenty twenty two. Twenty twenty two, he was a monster

725
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 4: in the minor leagues. We got to see him in

726
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 4: the Arizona Fall League and I fell in love with him.

727
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 4: I fell in love with the approach, the explosiveness. Talk

728
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 4: to him a little bit. Just great guy ends up

729
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 4: having what is a pretty solid chance and a great

730
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 4: opportunity that ended up happening last year and now with

731
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 4: Planco traded out, this is to set him up.

732
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 5: Here's what I love about him.

733
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 4: A good hard hit percentage right at forty five percent,

734
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 4: massive walk percentage is up there over thirteen percent, barrel rate,

735
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 4: an improving launch agle. But here was one of the

736
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 4: wild things about him is his strikeout rate is high,

737
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 4: but he had one of the lowest chase rates in

738
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 4: baseball overall. So one of the biggest problems with him,

739
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 4: and I saw this in the AFL a year and

740
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 4: a half ago. Is he is wildly passive early on

741
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 4: in counts and then gets wildly aggressive late incounts, and

742
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 4: that is something he.

743
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 5: Has to work on.

744
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 4: And when you look at a guy with thirty percent

745
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 4: K rate, every fantasy person on the planet wants to

746
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 4: run for the high hill. This kid, I could never improve.

747
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is one of the biggest worrisome things.

748
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: He's still three eighty on base percentage. I mean, like,

749
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 1: go well because he.

750
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 5: Walks fifteen percent of the time.

751
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, but this is an instance where the K percentage

752
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 4: I don't think tells the whole story. I've seen him

753
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 4: in person a ton If you watch a bunch of him,

754
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 4: you can see it. He is too passive in early

755
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 4: counts and then he's playing from behind, and he's got

756
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 4: to fix that, and I think that is something that

757
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 4: can change. So with one of the low overall chase

758
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 4: rates in general, what do you do? Be more aggressive

759
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 4: in early counts? There is big power that's in there.

760
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 4: I think there's twenty to twenty five Homer empower, great OBP.

761
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 4: I hope he doesn't become the next Carlos Santana and

762
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 4: hits two thirty with a four hundred OBP. But if

763
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 4: he makes those right changes, I think he could explode

764
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 4: on the scene. He's also going to get the opportunity

765
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 4: this year, so Edward Julian another buy for me.

766
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: Juliana four to thirty seven on base percentage of the

767
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: minor leagues over two hundred and sixty three games and

768
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: Vladen nine twenty four ops. It's not a huge sample

769
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty three games, But to Welsh's concern

770
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: point there, I mean, I feel like this is a

771
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: player that you know, still has a lot of development

772
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: to do, but already can make an impact in twenty

773
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 1: twenty four.

774
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's another guy that it seems like a

775
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: lot of people love and I do too. Coming going

776
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 2: into last season, you just knew that this is somebody

777
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 2: that's going to be, like you mentioned, a Vedro type,

778
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 2: just somebody that is going to be really stable over

779
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:49,479
Speaker 2: the course of the season.

780
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 3: I do think it might take a little time to

781
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 3: get there.

782
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 2: I do like what you said, Welsh about he isn't

783
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: really a thirty percent strikeout guy. That's not really how

784
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 2: I see him developing. He's a guy that's going to

785
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 2: get on base a ton. But there is one major

786
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: problem with a couple major problems with Edward Julien.

787
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: One is the.

788
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: Fact that the there is a lot of struggle against

789
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 2: left handed pitching. Against left handed pitching, he I think

790
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 2: it was like a tow to two iso A twenty

791
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: twenty two WRC plus he hit like one seventy against lefties.

792
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: And there is a legit chance of some platooning there

793
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 2: going on which will impact his fantasy value. Where might

794
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 2: that come from? You say, why would they play Willie

795
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,719
Speaker 2: Castro over Edward Julien? Why would they play Kyle Farmer

796
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: rocobll DELI absolutely might. I know it doesn't sound great,

797
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 2: but Kyle Farmer crushes left handed pitching. Willie Castro hits

798
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: them well, and he is the only guy that rocobed

799
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: Delli has even let run if you're just looking at

800
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: like since Roco bell Delli, the manager of the Twins,

801
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: came into the league in twenty nineteen, the Twins aren't

802
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 2: just the lowest in stolen bases and total stolen bases

803
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 2: over that span, it's quite like a lot their thirtieth

804
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,239
Speaker 2: in the league, but like you know, seventy less than

805
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 2: the thirty first, So I don't think that philosophy is

806
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: going to change. I think that impacts Julian's potential production

807
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,479
Speaker 2: on the stolen base side. I think he hits for power.

808
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 2: I think he's a good average guy potentially, but I

809
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 2: think he's a better real life player than fantasy player.

810
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 2: And there are guys going later than him, like the

811
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 2: guy that made space for him, that made space for him,

812
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 2: Jorge Polanco, even a Brandon Laue bounce back. I mean,

813
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 2: there are guys going later. I mean, dare I say,

814
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: Jonathan India, you know, you know seeing smirk Welch, you know, like.

815
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 5: I mean, you could say it. Did you just call

816
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 5: me welch? By the way, great, I didn't. Oh my god,

817
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 5: he welch to me? How insulting?

818
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 1: No, that doesn't matter to me.

819
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 5: The yeah, I know.

820
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 4: The Polanco one is interesting because it's like he also

821
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,439
Speaker 4: goes to the worst ballpark factor out there, but there's

822
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 4: a lot of run support, and then I can't do

823
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 4: I could do the Polanco one, I can't do the

824
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 4: India one. I can't do the India one because if

825
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 4: he is in Cincinnati, I'm out. I don't know what

826
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 4: they did platoon's gonna look like. I don't know what

827
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,439
Speaker 4: the hell that's going to look like, and we don't

828
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 4: know where or when he gets traded. I feel like

829
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 4: he is stuck. But you have you make really good

830
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 4: points about the playing time. They also said, just to

831
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 4: point out for a prospect side, brooks Lee is one

832
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 4: of their top hitting prospects. They said, as soon as

833
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 4: he shows he's ready, they're bringing him up. So they

834
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 4: might put a reds situation onto us where there's a

835
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 4: glut of players that are filling out. Positionally, I would

836
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 4: say I sometimes think think splits get a little overdone

837
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 4: where we focus on like, well, if this guy loses

838
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 4: these at bats, but you know what, like I'll take

839
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 4: four hundred and fifty at bats on the primary spot

840
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 4: where a guy is good over five point fifty to

841
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 4: six hundred where the guy really struggles.

842
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:43,280
Speaker 5: That could be the difference.

843
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 4: And I know you miss some maybe some counting stats

844
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 4: in there, but that also could be the difference of

845
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 4: a guy hitting two ninety and a guy hitting two

846
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 4: forty five if they take away So platoons can be bad,

847
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 4: but it also can benefit from a fantasy side. A

848
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,439
Speaker 4: guy that is around the one eighties overall of being

849
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 4: ranked and ADPs around the two hundred. This is a

850
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 4: middle infield option, so twenty five twenty twenty five homers

851
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 4: for a guy that gets the opportunity. That could be

852
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 4: a value in there, but you bring up some grade points.

853
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 4: If they get into hardcore platoons and Julian does struggle,

854
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 4: then we might be hurting.

855
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 1: Next guy on our list here at one ninety two,

856
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 1: Ezekiel Tovar of the Colorado Rockies. Another infielder here, the

857
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: short stop. He had some flashes here of Vlad Tovar

858
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: last year. Obviously the home road splits are Colorado and elsewhere.

859
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 1: We know what that looks like. But this is also

860
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: a player that did show you some upside in the

861
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: minor league. So Tovar again going pretty late, very I

862
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: think trendy name right now. Is this so a guy

863
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 1: for you as a sleeper quote unquote that you're buying

864
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 1: at this price or still just a little too expensive

865
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: for you.

866
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: I'm lukewarm on the lean of yes, I could use him.

867
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 2: And it's really funny how much we've come as fantasy

868
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 2: baseball people that now the Rockies are just not interesting

869
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: to us, right Like guys like still, I kind.

870
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 1: Of blame the Rockies more. Can I just blame the

871
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 1: Rockies more for that than anything?

872
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 3: Absolutely?

873
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 4: Okay, Absolutely, well you could probably you actually can probably

874
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 4: more blame the new rules to baseball and human rights.

875
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. But also when you're drafting Todd Helton instead of

876
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: you know, signing Daniel Murphy to long term contracts, I

877
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 1: think it kind of starts to sour you a little

878
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: bit on what the organization's plan is. Like their plan

879
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,479
Speaker 1: is to get as many guys who might be able

880
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: to play a little first base and second base. That

881
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: seems to be what their plan was for the last

882
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: five years.

883
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 2: Well, because he also is on a team that isn't

884
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 2: that doesn't have that great of an offense, he has

885
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 2: a wonderful opportunity to amass counting stats atop the lineup,

886
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: hitting first, possibly hitting second. He could go twenty twenty

887
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 2: with eighty five plus run scored and it's very very likely.

888
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 2: And again he's in this Julian range of players, so

889
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 2: it is a tough call. And of course you'll play

890
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 2: him at home, and if you have a nice mix there,

891
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 2: you know, maybe play if you have Julian on that

892
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 2: same team, and play Julian when he's up against righty's

893
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 2: and whatnot. But the problem with with Tilvar is a

894
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 2: couple things. So well, one big thing. I'll keep it

895
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 2: as quick as possible. The guy's wild. He's like, you know,

896
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: fourth highest at his zone swing rate. Last season, you know,

897
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 2: at his own swing and miss rate was like over

898
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 2: fifty percent, like bottom five overall in the league. So

899
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 2: Tillvar is a little dicey. I think he can help

900
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 2: you with the counting stats. I think he can hurt

901
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 2: the average pretty badly.

902
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 1: All right, Well, it's your take on Tivar.

903
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 4: Yep, this is I feel weird about it, especially if

904
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 4: you pay attention to projections. But Tivar is a cell

905
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 4: for me too. I'm going to join Blat on that one.

906
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 4: I'm actually surprised we were on that bat X. If

907
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 4: you look at the Auction Calculator project it's wild. He's

908
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 4: a thirteenth short stop with an almost thirteen dollars value

909
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 4: based on their projections, he's got like seventeen homers fifteen.

910
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 5: So I just don't I don't buy it with Tillvar.

911
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 4: You mentioned that at his own chase or the overall

912
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 4: chase rate forty two percent chase rate, wildly horrible, bad

913
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 4: hard hit percentage. He strikes out twenty seven percent of

914
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 4: the time with one of the lowest walk rates in baseball. Okay,

915
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 4: Barreling maximized launch angle where he's at, Maybe he's a sleeper.

916
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna buy it. I'm not super interested in

917
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 4: Ezekiel to VARs Sell for me.

918
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 1: All Right, the last three guys we have are all pitchers,

919
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 1: and they're all within twenty spots or so of each other.

920
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:14,919
Speaker 1: First one's Brian wu of the Seattle Mariners. That we've got,

921
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: Michael King of the now Padres, and Brandon Fott, Welsh's

922
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: own favorite of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now, this is an

923
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 1: easy one for me. It's Michael King. I'm buying the

924
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,839
Speaker 1: most of him I possibly can. I understand things might

925
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: be a little bit tougher there in San Diego this

926
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: year without Soda in that lineup two, with Machado getting

927
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,959
Speaker 1: off to that late start. I think Fot is very

928
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 1: exciting in terms of the stuff and the upside. I'm

929
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 1: waiting for him to corral everything again. He had some

930
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 1: you know moments in the playoffs which Flat talked about

931
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 1: you know how much we want to put stock in that.

932
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: And Wo would be that other guy who's kind of

933
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,919
Speaker 1: although he's going ahead of both of them. I understand why.

934
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: But King is the guy of these three that I

935
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 1: want Welsh, Wu, King, and Fought. How do you buy

936
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 1: or sell any of them in terms of this value? Again,

937
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 1: they're kind of in a cluster together.

938
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 5: Well, I'll talk about one of them, but i'll give

939
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 5: you my answers. Wu is a cell.

940
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are buying him like

941
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 4: he's going to be a no doubt lockdown starter. I

942
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 4: wouldn't be surprised by the way if he is traded

943
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 4: in a Blake snow where to sign in Seattle.

944
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna sell on him. Michael King, I believe

945
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 5: might be.

946
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 4: The biggest discrepancy of where like I have ranked versus

947
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 4: where like ECR and adp is. I think a lot

948
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 4: of that is two innings projections. But he was a monster.

949
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,399
Speaker 4: I'm gonna save him because I'm a guessing in my mind.

950
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 4: I have no clue what this is gonna happen. I

951
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 4: feel like maybe Blad is going to talk about him

952
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 4: because I love him. How about I talk about the

953
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 4: biggest homer thing I could talk about in Brandon Fought. Yes,

954
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 4: this is a bye Michael King, bye Brandon Fought by

955
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,879
Speaker 4: I know you guys can question it. Everybody was on

956
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 4: my case about Brandon Fought all year.

957
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 5: Then what happened. Brad Strom came in.

958
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 4: Said, hey, buddy, well it's a movie over just a

959
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 4: tiny bit onto the rubber and he starts throwing a sinker.

960
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 5: And now guess what.

961
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 4: He's got a sweeper that's cutting across the zone better.

962
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 4: He's got this fastball that's now hitting more inside instead

963
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 4: of not missing, and he's got a sinker that's establishing

964
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 4: the pitch in the playoffs in five starts in the

965
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 4: playoffs the World Series, twenty six strikeouts to five walks,

966
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 4: twenty two innings, pitch with a three two seven era

967
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 4: on the biggest stage you can possibly have. After being

968
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 4: a loser early on, giving up all the homers, getting

969
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 4: banged around, sweating and red all over the place every.

970
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 5: Damn game he's going he went and we had that

971
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 5: one hundred, Well we do.

972
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 4: You want to remind everybody who was the sports champion

973
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 4: of our David Busters.

974
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 1: You picked a basketball event and you're six four so

975
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: I mean shot.

976
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 4: But sweating and is crazy and he looks like Chris

977
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 4: Farley out there, and guess what, he got so much

978
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 4: better on the biggest stage.

979
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 5: I think that pitching change was huge to him.

980
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 4: Put one hundred and eighty innings in the miners private

981
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 4: previous year, led the miners in strikeouts that previous year.

982
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 4: He makes the change that you want in the playoffs. Yes,

983
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 4: I think that Brandon Fought is a crazy undervalued pitcher.

984
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 4: He's a guy that can run an easy over nine

985
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,760
Speaker 4: k per nine, looks to have some walks more established.

986
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 4: He has to figure out the home runs. That is

987
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 4: continuous problem with him. Era might not be there, but

988
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 4: I think this is a great guy that's going to

989
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 4: get you wins. He are going to push innings and

990
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 4: he's going to get you good strikeouts. The change should

991
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 4: not be ignored. So I'm a buy on Brandon Fought.

992
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 4: So that's the one I will cover. Let's see, we're.

993
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: So glad, buy or sell wu King and Fought and

994
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: talk to me about the one you like the most

995
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 1: of this group.

996
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 3: I like all three guys.

997
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 2: If you think in the case of Fought, I mean

998
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 2: there is a little bit of a stink, so to speak,

999
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 2: because of that early season.

1000
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 3: You know when he when he was.

1001
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 1: Called from all the sweating, Oh man.

1002
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 3: We were waiting for it.

1003
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,720
Speaker 2: And you know what, I caught some backlash too because

1004
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 2: I was a you know, I was team fought all

1005
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,760
Speaker 2: the way and I could not wait for his appearance

1006
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 2: and it just it just stung in so many ways.

1007
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 2: But you're right, the adjustments that he made and what

1008
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 2: we saw on the big stage. Uh, there was a

1009
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 2: lot of talk before the season about the shape of

1010
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 2: his fastball. It's a below average and veloscity and all that. Well,

1011
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,439
Speaker 2: he you know, may do with the sweeper and he's

1012
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 2: the the lowest price of all three of these guys,

1013
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 2: So I think he's really solid.

1014
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 3: You know, not not much to say about Wu other

1015
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 3: than you're right.

1016
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 2: I do could I could foresee a possibility where if

1017
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 2: they trade for a cease or they don't see so

1018
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 2: they get signed snell, Wu might be the guy to go.

1019
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 2: But I do like him, probably the third least of

1020
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 2: the three. And by the way, I think it was

1021
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 2: draft I was drafting with Brian Wu's mother maybe cousin,

1022
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,760
Speaker 2: because he was taken in like the eighth round around

1023
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 2: one thirty overall on a pay draft. I don't know

1024
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 2: what was going on, and the save the best for last,

1025
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 2: maybe Michael drafting with Yeah, Michael King my favorite, one

1026
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 2: of my favorite pitchers. Man like he not only is

1027
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 2: he really good, he might even be better. And I

1028
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 2: think the whole problem with like, oh, you know San

1029
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 2: Diego is not going to be as good this is

1030
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: that this pitching staff is pretty sick, and he's going

1031
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 2: to be a big part of that success. There are

1032
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 2: already lots of quotes from manager Mike Schultz and how

1033
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 2: much he loves him. What a gamer he is, uh,

1034
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 2: you know, probably not going to be the thirty percent

1035
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: strikeout guy. He was right because part of that was

1036
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 2: in relief, but that stretched down the end of last season.

1037
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 2: Eight starts with a thirty one percent strikeout rate like

1038
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 2: an ERA under two change up. You know, all of

1039
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 2: his pitchers pitches or plus pitches. He's a stud.

1040
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 3: I think he is going to make do.

1041
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 2: VDB projections has him like a three forty eight e

1042
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 2: RA and maybe, like I think, a twenty seven percent

1043
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 2: strikeout rate.

1044
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,439
Speaker 3: So I love Michael King, Bye bye bye.

1045
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 1: Ironically, hold on wait wait wait wait wait wait wait

1046
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: wait wait as a starter, his caper nine was actually

1047
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 1: higher than as a reliever last year, eleven point four

1048
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 1: to ten point six. Did you know that fled settler?

1049
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: I'm found probably go there you go, that's why you

1050
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: come when he's off the battle. But you know to

1051
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: that point too, Michael King, I said, maybe again them

1052
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 1: up in the black Book. I was saying, maybe it

1053
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 1: might not be a hot take. I think he could

1054
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: be the best picture in this rotation by the time

1055
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 1: we're all said and done. Because if you're a little

1056
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: worried about the shoulder of Musgrove, if we're worried about

1057
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,240
Speaker 1: maybe this is the year Darvish dozen to bounce back.

1058
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: You look at you know the rest of it, maybe

1059
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 1: Michael King is the guy that emerges as the guy

1060
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 1: at the front Alad Welsh, what was your thoughts on there?

1061
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 4: Well, real quick, we'll end it with this is let's

1062
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:26,280
Speaker 4: say we're at pick one thirty. You're getting a value

1063
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 4: on Reagans or Michael King. At one thirty, you want

1064
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 4: Michael King or Cole Reagans.

1065
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: Man, I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go against the grain.

1066
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 2: I actually drafted my first Reagans because he fell two rounds,

1067
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,919
Speaker 2: but Michael King was already gone. Had Michael King been there,

1068
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:43,919
Speaker 2: I would have taken him.

1069
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: There you go, true bombs from our good friend Vlad Seddler.

1070
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 1: You could check out all his incredible workover at FTN.

1071
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,280
Speaker 1: Check out the Baseball podcast there too. He does amazing

1072
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 1: work there. Vlad, thanks so much for hanging out with

1073
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 1: us today. I know you kind of got lucky slash

1074
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: unlucky with getting a day off. Hopefully the good luck

1075
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 1: part was getting to spend quality time with us, so

1076
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,439
Speaker 1: we appreciate you coming on the show. I'll go follow

1077
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:07,879
Speaker 1: him as Rodo gut over on the X as well.

1078
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 1: That's where you follow him, and of course make sure

1079
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 1: you drop your comments below. We want to hear from you.

1080
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 1: What do you think about all these ten players we

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Speaker 1: laid out. Are they sleepers? Are they busts? Are they

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Speaker 1: too expensive? Are they not expensive enough? We love to

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Speaker 1: hear from you, so drop your comments below. Subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros MLB channel because before you know it,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna be having more mock drafts. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: more content here. Ring the bell to it goes ding

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Speaker 1: for notifications and of course leading off is gonna start

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Speaker 1: in April yet again. When opening Day starts, we'll be

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Speaker 1: back every single day talking baseball live here on the channel.

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Speaker 1: Don't miss it. It is must see YouTube television. That'll

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Speaker 1: do for us. But the story of the game goes

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Speaker 1: on for Vlad and the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll

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Speaker 1: see you next time, kids,