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Speaker 1: The US dollar reserve, Russia and World War Three. Now

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Speaker 1: that's a big topic, and we have a big conversation

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Speaker 1: and I'm going to take you through it from the

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Speaker 1: macro macro down to the micro. So we are sitting

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Speaker 1: down into an amazing conversation with Dave Column. He's a

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Speaker 1: professor at Cornell University. He's a libertarian, he's an Austrian

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Speaker 1: business cycle analyst, he's a contributor of zero Heage. And

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Speaker 1: we have this conversation and we are going to start

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Speaker 1: with the global the geopolitical picture. You have to understand there,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll dive into the macroeconomic picture. We'll dive

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Speaker 1: then into the financial markets and then the economy. What

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Speaker 1: is the Ukraine and Russia war happening over there? What

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Speaker 1: is Pougin gonna do? What's going on with NATO, what's

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Speaker 1: the US's involvement. How does that tie in with Afghanistan?

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Speaker 1: What happens with the world econmic form? How are they

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Speaker 1: tied in? Of course, we keep digging in. What's happening

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Speaker 1: with the macroeconomic cycle? Can the FED continue to stimulate

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Speaker 1: or really continue pulling back? What does he expect with inflation,

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Speaker 1: with the economies and the cost of your gasoline and

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Speaker 1: your stake. We are going to go from the macro

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Speaker 1: to the micro. This is the conversation you do not

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Speaker 1: want to miss with Dave Column. Let's go ahead, jump

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Speaker 1: right in. All right, So, Dave, as I was just saying,

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Speaker 1: I've I've listened to you a lot with other people

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Speaker 1: that I do content content with, and I love your perspective,

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Speaker 1: and so I'm super excited to have you on what

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Speaker 1: I want to do. And I read your paper or

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Speaker 1: some of your paper of your twenty twenty two recap.

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Speaker 1: It was it was big, it was very comprehensive. I

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Speaker 1: really like that. But I want to start really wide,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll kind of try to see if we

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Speaker 1: can hone this in. I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: are looking down at the ground and they can't see

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Speaker 1: the big picture. And because we're in a complex system, right,

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Speaker 1: the world's a complex system, we have to look at

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Speaker 1: the big pieces to understand the small pieces. So we'll

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Speaker 1: start with maybe this is too ambitious, We'll see what

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Speaker 1: we can do in this short period of time, but

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Speaker 1: start with maybe the big geopolitical picture into more of

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Speaker 1: the macroeconomic picture, and then maybe get into some more

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Speaker 1: of the economic and market pick and see if we

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Speaker 1: can kind of drill that down. But certainly this macroeconomic

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Speaker 1: or really the geopolitical pictures driving things right now. And

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Speaker 1: really the big escalation is the Russia Ukraine situation. So

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Speaker 1: I think it's been going on for a long time,

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Speaker 1: but let's start with that, because this is a big deal,

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Speaker 1: you know, potentially world War three. It seems like we've

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Speaker 1: crossed the line for everybody listening. We're recording this on

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Speaker 1: January twenty seventh, just so you know where we're at.

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Speaker 1: And you put a quote out and you said, I

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Speaker 1: just want to remind you that when NATO supplied sophisticated

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Speaker 1: weapons manned by skilled NATO troops, which is what the

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Speaker 1: US has been doing or NATO has been doing, this

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Speaker 1: is no longer a Ukraine Russia conflict. And so Russia

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Speaker 1: has said as much. Right, they've kind of put the

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Speaker 1: proverbial red line many times which we've crossed, and this

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Speaker 1: was one of those. If you give these weapons, like

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Speaker 1: we are now at war with you. So what were

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Speaker 1: you meaning by that quote? And maybe expand on that

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Speaker 1: a little bit, Well, so our weapons are sophisticated, we

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Speaker 1: don't just hand them to Ukrainians like with some M

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Speaker 1: sixteen or something and say go shoot someone. I've been

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Speaker 1: told that some of these weapons take as many as

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Speaker 1: ninety people to man. And so when we hand over

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Speaker 1: one of our real state of the our weapons, we're

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Speaker 1: not giving them to a bunch of guys who've been

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Speaker 1: running around the outback of Ukraine to shoot these things.

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Speaker 1: And so in all probability, this really is a direct

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Speaker 1: conflict between uh, let's call it NATO, but NATO is

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Speaker 1: the United States and many many respects for better for worse.

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Speaker 1: It really is a sort of a direct NATO Russia

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Speaker 1: conflict where the Ukrainians are about as important as the

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Speaker 1: Irish word along Chanks. Did I mean this, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: final red line or whatever we're we're at. Giving these

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Speaker 1: weapons really highlights that. But was there really any doubt

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Speaker 1: in your mind before well? Part no. I had started

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Speaker 1: watching Poot with curiosity around twenty fourteen or fifteen. I

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Speaker 1: think what caught my attention was probably the UH the

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Speaker 1: CI led CIA led coup in Ukraine that then caused

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Speaker 1: friction to pick up speed um, a coup said by

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Speaker 1: John Pilger, the the British journalist and George Friedman had

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Speaker 1: founder Stratford. They said it was the most blatant engineered

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Speaker 1: coup in history, which which is quite a high bar. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think for I don't I'll just assume your audience

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Speaker 1: doesn't know everything. That's a probably good assumption. Um. To

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Speaker 1: understand the Ukraine War, the very first thing you have

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Speaker 1: to do is go back a decade and look at

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Speaker 1: UH friction between UH, Russian and Ukraine. So when when Russia,

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Speaker 1: when the Soviet Union fell apart, UH, there was a

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Speaker 1: lot of tension, right, So this was an unsettled world

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Speaker 1: in Germany was reuniting and and and not only was

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Speaker 1: Russia uncomfortable by that because big Germany has been known

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Speaker 1: to get into trouble on occasion, but even the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world sort of was watching Germany, going, you know,

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Speaker 1: we've been here before. Do we really want to let

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Speaker 1: these guys form one big country again. So so it

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Speaker 1: turns out many, many well documented statements were made between

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Speaker 1: NATO and Russia in which NATO said, look, we will

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Speaker 1: not push NATO eastward if you don't try to rebuild

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Speaker 1: the Warsaw Pact. And there was an agreement and then

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Speaker 1: within no time at all secret negotiations started trying to

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Speaker 1: expand NATO eastward, and the move was finally my understanding

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Speaker 1: as the first move was Clinton in nineteen ninety seven,

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Speaker 1: in which George Kennon, one of the truly legendary Cold

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Speaker 1: warriors from our State Department, said, was the most disastrous

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Speaker 1: policy blunder in US history and pushing NATO eastward. Um

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Speaker 1: and and so Russia kept pushing back saying, look, you

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Speaker 1: can't be doing this. You agreed, and we kept saying

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Speaker 1: we don't care. And in fact, um one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons that we didn't care is because there was no

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Speaker 1: longer a Soviet Union to keep us in check. So so,

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Speaker 1: you know, one time Jeffrey Sachs said, looked at you know,

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Speaker 1: there'll be a Marshall plan to help Russia. What he

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Speaker 1: failed to realize as well, without there being a Soviet Union,

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Speaker 1: there's no reason for us to help Russia. Um so

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Speaker 1: an a event, so we start pushing NATO eastward, and

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Speaker 1: Russia got increasingly uncomfortable, and we started training U Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: nationalists around twenty fourteen or fifteen, after we toppled probably

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Speaker 1: Putin's guy who was in charge in Ukraine. Um top

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Speaker 1: of them, put in our own guy whose short name

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Speaker 1: is Yats. That's what they call him. Um and Yatsenook.

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Speaker 1: I think it's the full name. Hard to pronounce some

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Speaker 1: of these things. Um and uh yeah, famous Victoria Nowelan

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Speaker 1: quotes in which she got recorded our engineering, Yats's placement

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Speaker 1: and power and stuff like that. Over the next years,

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Speaker 1: we arm the Ukrainians, we trained them, and it was

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Speaker 1: all about push it back against Russia. That's all it was.

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Speaker 1: And so so I get irritated with the yellow blue

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Speaker 1: flag waving I call the Sanctimonia industrial complex because they

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Speaker 1: think that this war is just about good and evil,

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Speaker 1: and that Russia is evil and the Ukraine's good and

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Speaker 1: and and therefore we should help the Ukrainians and get

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Speaker 1: ALTERI eyed that there's just not a shred of truth

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Speaker 1: in that story. Ukraine is not a democracy or any

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Speaker 1: stretch of the imagination. Zelenski is by no means an

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Speaker 1: honest man, by any stretch of the imagination. And well

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Speaker 1: it is to the flag wavers, but yes, m it's not.

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Speaker 1: It's not controversial to the written record. And you know,

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Speaker 1: zolens get kicked the Catholic Church out of Ukraine, kicked

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Speaker 1: all the political parties out of Ukraine, kicked the various

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Speaker 1: media outlets out of Ukraine. So so he's a ham

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Speaker 1: fisted punk and the Ukrainian Nationalists turned out to be

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Speaker 1: uh Ukrainian Nazis. Now, I don't use the word Nazi metaphorically,

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Speaker 1: they're actually Nazis. Yeah. They traced back to World War

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Speaker 1: Two when the Ukrainian Nazis fought with Germany against against

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and against Russia and UH and the Soviet Union.

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Speaker 1: And they still celebrate step In Bendair's birthday, who is

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Speaker 1: a famous Ukrainian Nazi. And so see, I apparently looked

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Speaker 1: at the Ukrainian Nazis and said, well, this is this

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Speaker 1: is the group we're gonna have to work with, because

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Speaker 1: these are the guys who have They're tenacious, they're my

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Speaker 1: best analogy. And again I pretty much started from scratch

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Speaker 1: at one point here. It's not like I got a

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Speaker 1: PhD in government or something. Um. The the the the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian Nazis in some sense are kind of like a

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Speaker 1: Mexican drug cartel, in which what they what they what

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Speaker 1: they lack in numbers, they make up in savagery and

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Speaker 1: so Um, so, what people who waved the flag and

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Speaker 1: get all WEEPI don't understand is that the Ukrainians of

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Speaker 1: the west, who are will call Ukrainians if you wish,

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Speaker 1: we're against the Ukrainians in the east were essentially ethnic Russians.

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Speaker 1: These guys spoke Russian, they acted Russian, they felt Russian,

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Speaker 1: and they really would comfortably just be assimilated by Russia.

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Speaker 1: I think I think that's a safe statement. Um, the

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Speaker 1: western Ukrainians have been slaughtering the Eastern Ukrainians for the

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Speaker 1: last ten years using CIA lead armaments, and and so

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Speaker 1: there's an estimated fifteen thousand dead Eastern Ukrainians. The idea

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Speaker 1: that Putin was going to move into Ukraine because of

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Speaker 1: NATO might actually not be quite correct, in the sense

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Speaker 1: that leading up to the war, Putin kept saying, well,

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Speaker 1: here's the deal. You can't have Ukraine. NATO can't have

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Speaker 1: Ukraine for US. It's an existential risk. Be the equivalent

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Speaker 1: of if the Soviet Union put missiles along the Mexican border,

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Speaker 1: we say, no, you just can't do that. If you

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Speaker 1: put missiles along the Mexican border. I asked the rhetorical question,

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Speaker 1: how long would it take us to turn Mexico into

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Speaker 1: a sheet of glass. The answers, five seconds, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't dig long and so so Putin was crystal clear,

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Speaker 1: and you say, well, you know he doesn't have the

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Speaker 1: right to say that. I go look for him. It's

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Speaker 1: existential risk. You say, oh, no, it's not. NATO's purpose

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Speaker 1: is to oppose Russia, to oppose the Soviet the former

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Speaker 1: Soviet Union. They are by definition of existential risk. Now

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Speaker 1: they don't have to be acting badly. They might be

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Speaker 1: acting good faith at times, but they are existential risk. Well,

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Speaker 1: we got arrogant. We decided not only did we not

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Speaker 1: agree with Russia, but we did not care what they think.

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Speaker 1: And that's the problem. So we cease to be valid negotiators.

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Speaker 1: We ceased to sit at the table and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: let's horse train, let's let's work something out here. We said,

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Speaker 1: screw you. And so over the years it just got

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Speaker 1: worse and worse, worse, and leading right up to the war,

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Speaker 1: Putin saying, I don't know how to get through to you, guys,

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Speaker 1: but this is not going to end well if you

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Speaker 1: keep doing this, and we we we insisted. So I

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Speaker 1: drew this proverbial red line and we crossed it. That's right,

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Speaker 1: and his red line was a legitimate one. And so

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Speaker 1: in my opinion that NATO could have stopped this war

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Speaker 1: at any point, I put the blame of the war

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Speaker 1: essentially one on NATO. It's not to say a rush

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Speaker 1: is not a bunch of tough punks, but I put

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Speaker 1: the blame on squarely on NATO and UH and UH

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Speaker 1: and we were looking for the war and we we

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Speaker 1: don't care if Ukrainians die because that's not what we're

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Speaker 1: worried about. We're worried about something. Now we're at sketchy

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Speaker 1: is what do we want? Yeah, that's what I want

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Speaker 1: to dig into. So I want to dig into that.

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Speaker 1: So I think a couple of things that I would

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Speaker 1: add to that. So I've tried to do as much

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Speaker 1: research as I can, and that seems to be kind

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Speaker 1: of the conclusion I come to. But I think there's

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Speaker 1: also a little bit more, just to kind of throw

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Speaker 1: in a little bit of a flavor here. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: a lot of them and the west seemed to be Russians,

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Speaker 1: and so to your point, they were I'm sorry, to

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Speaker 1: the east, and they were being shelled, right, they were

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Speaker 1: being attacked and they were being killed, and so Russia's like,

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Speaker 1: wait a minute, these are our people, Like, you can't

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Speaker 1: just kill our people. We must do something to protect them.

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Speaker 1: So there was even more than that. But let's go

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Speaker 1: back to why. And so if we look at the

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Speaker 1: big geopolitical picture, a couple things kind of come out.

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Speaker 1: One is like who controls the Eurasian land mask. I

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Speaker 1: think there was always something about potentially trying to keep

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Speaker 1: Germany and Russia apart from each other. I think there's

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Speaker 1: something there, but ultimately it seems like to me and

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Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong, But let's get into the why.

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Speaker 1: But it seems like we've had this push towards globalism,

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Speaker 1: and when Trump went into Davos and said, hey, you know,

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Speaker 1: us a sovereign, we're not going to bow down, he

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Speaker 1: was the number one target. And Putin also has given

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Speaker 1: similar speeches and he doesn't want to go with globalism either,

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Speaker 1: And it seems like Ukraine might have been the tool

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Speaker 1: they need to get Russia out of the way to

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Speaker 1: continue to push this push towards globalism. That's kind of

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Speaker 1: what I'm thinking. But what do you think is why

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Speaker 1: they want to do this? So bad. Well, this gets

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Speaker 1: to this whole debate about the Great Reset and things

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Speaker 1: that you know, something like Tom Luongo talks about and

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Speaker 1: reads about all day every day. I don't I don't

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Speaker 1: yet know what the Great Reset is. I have read

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Speaker 1: enormous amounts about it. They're so garishly open about what

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Speaker 1: they say they are that I go, you're just trying

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Speaker 1: to drive us crazy, right when they say, look, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna eat crickets, We're not going to own anything, you know,

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Speaker 1: the US, the US is not going to be a superpower.

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Speaker 1: That these are all fighting words. Now, I can understand

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Speaker 1: why someone might want to go there, but I'd be

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Speaker 1: careful about going there for me. Now, we have a

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Speaker 1: fundamental job just the EU, just I believe, last week

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Speaker 1: approved putting cricket protein powder into foods. There's been no

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Speaker 1: testing on it, no ledge, and they just approved us.

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Speaker 1: So this is happening, and it's coming right now, like

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Speaker 1: in Europe this week. And and we have this problem

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Speaker 1: where the World Economic Forum guys really haven't filtrated most

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Speaker 1: of the Western governments. So take for example, candidate Trudeau's

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Speaker 1: totally on Trudeau. Trudeau in his family of a history

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Speaker 1: of supporting totalitarian regimes for the last half century. M

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Speaker 1: Trudeau is the perfect puppet, right, he's such a dork

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Speaker 1: and uh. But but his his second in command, Christia Freeland,

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Speaker 1: turns out to be Ukrainian. Turns out she was a

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Speaker 1: reporter in Ukraine, her father was a Ukrainian Nazi, and

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Speaker 1: she's on the shortlist to be Secretary of NATO. She is,

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Speaker 1: her resume is a problem from head to toe. She's

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Speaker 1: the one who squashed the trucker's She's up to no good.

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Speaker 1: You got. Biden is so compromised by both Ukraine and China.

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Speaker 1: And it's not to say how the presidents don't have

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Speaker 1: skeletons in the closet, but he's so compromised that when

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Speaker 1: he does something that makes no sense, you don't know

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Speaker 1: who told him to do it. And so you when

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Speaker 1: we pulled out of Afghanistan, for example, it was the

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Speaker 1: most absurd pull out in history. Our military knows how

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Speaker 1: to get out of countries, right, they do know how

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Speaker 1: to pull out, and they did it in what seemed

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Speaker 1: like the most unimaginable way. And then the question is why,

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Speaker 1: and and that story turned out to have a huge

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Speaker 1: amount of propagand in it because remember when they pulled

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Speaker 1: out and we left civilians behind, and it looked like

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Speaker 1: it was going to be a hostage crisis. Two points. Oh,

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Speaker 1: it looked like just be a nightmare. We left them weapons,

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Speaker 1: we left the money, we left them everything. And what

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Speaker 1: we also noticed is that after we pulled out, nothing happened.

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Speaker 1: So this horror story of the pull out all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden just disappeared completely. The question is what's that

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Speaker 1: all about? It? Well, I think because all the actors

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Speaker 1: are sane, and we said to the Taliban, we're going

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Speaker 1: to leave your money and weapons and you name it,

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Speaker 1: but don't make us come back and kick because because

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Speaker 1: you start beating on Americans. The Taliband said, okay, we're

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Speaker 1: up with that. And so now the Taliban controls now,

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Speaker 1: the Taliban's cutting mental rights steals with China now, so

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Speaker 1: heaven only knows if Biden knew that was the path

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Speaker 1: the whole time. And we also know now we also

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Speaker 1: see reports this week that now Russia is making deals

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Speaker 1: with the Taliband to get a lot of those weapons.

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Speaker 1: That's right, so we gave so now by proxy we've

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Speaker 1: given weapons left him. The two of the Taliband was

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Speaker 1: nar going to Russia, and then we're also supplying Ukraine

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Speaker 1: with weapons, and maybe we knew that would happen the

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Speaker 1: whole time. So that's the problem. I'm sure you dig

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Speaker 1: into history a lot, and if you look into the

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Speaker 1: history of World War One. I mean, that's what the

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Speaker 1: richest people in the US did, right, They supplied both

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Speaker 1: sides of the war. Yeah. Yeah, And you know things

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Speaker 1: like the uh, you know, the Archduke Ferdinand assassination being

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Speaker 1: the trigger of World War One. That's not even close

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Speaker 1: to true. The Germans could not get the Austrians to

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Speaker 1: counterattack because the Archduke was a dark No one cared

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Speaker 1: about the arch Duke. Shoot him, we don't care. The

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Speaker 1: Germans basically had to bag the Austrians to pick a

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Speaker 1: fight with the Serbs and and uh and and so

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Speaker 1: they did, and then up now we're off to World

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Speaker 1: War One. So there's there hasn't been a war since

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the twentieth century that I know of

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Speaker 1: that wasn't started under false pretenses. So and it's it's

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Speaker 1: interesting when you talk about that. You know a lot

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Speaker 1: of times people would say that assassination of the arch

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Speaker 1: Duke was the start of the war. There was yours.

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Speaker 1: The war started at least a year of not two

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Speaker 1: years earlier, And so the beginning and the end of

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Speaker 1: a war is oftentimes not really when it started it ended.

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Speaker 1: World War two didn't start with the bombing of Pearl

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Speaker 1: Harbor again, for example. And so, um, did this war

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Speaker 1: if we are if we are going into World War three?

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Speaker 1: Did it start with Russia's attack on Ukraine? Or did

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Speaker 1: it start a lot sooner? It started decades earlier potentially,

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Speaker 1: but certainly certainly you can easily start the preparations for

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Speaker 1: twenty fourteen and and and and there's you know, photos

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Speaker 1: of klobaschar And and Lindsey Graham and John McCain staying

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Speaker 1: with the Ukrainian soldiers rallying the troops to go against

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Speaker 1: Russia back in two thousand and fifteen, two thousand and sixteen, Um,

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Speaker 1: and we were we were training troops in Ukraine for

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Speaker 1: what's called interoperability, which means that you can plug any

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Speaker 1: unit into any other unit and be able they can

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Speaker 1: work together. And so so we have been training Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: to go and get slaughtered on the battlefield for a

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Speaker 1: decade now, and now they're getting and here here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: We hear things like the Russians blew it, their tanks

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Speaker 1: don't work, the Ukrainians have the ball in the two

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Speaker 1: yard line and are about to score, none of which

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Speaker 1: you can demonstrate to be true right now. If you

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Speaker 1: turn to guys like John Merscheimer, who's been warning us

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Speaker 1: for over twelve years now that we were pushing the

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Speaker 1: US into World War three, pushing the Russia into World

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Speaker 1: War three. You look at a guy named Colonel McGregor,

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Speaker 1: who was sort of white house level military guy. He

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Speaker 1: didn't get there, but he was close. He's saying that

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are getting slaughtered, not winning the retreats that

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Speaker 1: we were hearing about early in the war. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are pushing them back. Scott Richard said right

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Speaker 1: from the start, the Russians are going to bait the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainians into the cities, get them, and then as they

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Speaker 1: get them, to defend the cities, back out, go around

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Speaker 1: the cities. Because Putin. Putin got his ass kicked politically

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Speaker 1: during the Chechen War when bodybags were coming home, and

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Speaker 1: so Putin said, Okay, casualties are not going to be

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Speaker 1: accepted if they get too high. So Putin did not

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Speaker 1: want to fight urban war, and so he baited them

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Speaker 1: into trying to fight an urban war. Then he ran

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Speaker 1: around from there, got to Mario Po bombed eleven tar

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Speaker 1: out of the aisof Batalium. Yeah. I think also if

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Speaker 1: those narratives were true, that they were losing, Russia was

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Speaker 1: losing so hard, we wouldn't have to keep sending more

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Speaker 1: and more weapons as well. But I want to, I

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Speaker 1: want to, I want to jump back to like why

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Speaker 1: and ultimately like where does this go? And not just

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Speaker 1: with the war, but with macroeconomics and and and so forth,

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Speaker 1: even in the United States, And so if we look

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Speaker 1: at this like, um, the thing that just I'm just

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Speaker 1: disgusted with. I have kids, and so I always think

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Speaker 1: about this. But like, and I'm old enough to have

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Speaker 1: grown up under you know, the Cold War, and so um,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm looking at potentially the face the threat

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Speaker 1: of a nuclear war more real than I've ever seen

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Speaker 1: in my lifetime. Like we're literally going there now. You know,

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Speaker 1: Russia is saying, hey, look, this could lead to nuclear war.

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Speaker 1: And if he's as bad, if Putin's as bad as

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Speaker 1: we think he is, I mean, if he's about to die, right,

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Speaker 1: if there's no victory for him, then why wouldn't he

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Speaker 1: Maybe there's some false flags to bait them in. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we can go down this road, but I think about

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Speaker 1: this risk of this potial nuclear war that we have

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Speaker 1: and the fact that Biden and NATO are putting all

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Speaker 1: of us, myself, my kids in jeopardy of this over

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Speaker 1: who controls crimea like right, like, the whole world, the

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Speaker 1: eight billion people are at risk because we care about

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Speaker 1: who controls crimea. That can the truth? That's right, that's right,

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Speaker 1: that can't be the truth. So then what is and

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Speaker 1: then and and it's important to understand that because then

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Speaker 1: what happens with moving from a unipolar world to a

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Speaker 1: multipolar world? And how does this break out? And then

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Speaker 1: we have to look at how you know, moving Putin

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Speaker 1: talks about moving from a fake financial system into a

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Speaker 1: real asset system, right, so moving from fake fiat money

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Speaker 1: to a commodity based money, and then how does that

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Speaker 1: affect us? So that's why I'm trying to think of

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Speaker 1: this this downstream effect there. Well, so this this gets

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Speaker 1: to this whole Dabos crowd. Great reset, who knows what

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Speaker 1: they're I mean, the fact that they're talking about these things.

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Speaker 1: Tell is evidence thereforth that um that they are trying

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Speaker 1: to confound us right, They're they're not telling us the secrets,

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Speaker 1: and so they are trying to keep us confused and

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Speaker 1: arguing and debating topics. So there's they're simple sort of

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Speaker 1: first order approximation explanations like US and NATO. But let's

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Speaker 1: call it. The US would like to get the resources

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Speaker 1: of both Ukraine and Russia so we can install our guy.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, our industries can go ripping into

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Speaker 1: Russia again, ripping into Ukraine again, and grab the assets.

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Speaker 1: First order approximation two. We're worried that China is going

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Speaker 1: to do that, and so we got to get there first.

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Speaker 1: First order approximation three. The US head jemon is falling apart,

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Speaker 1: and this is a desperate effort to keep it together.

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Speaker 1: But meanwhile, we've got a reserve currency risk, We've got

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Speaker 1: we've got the Saudi's talking very seriously about kicking us

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Speaker 1: to the curb, and so the petro dollar story falls apart.

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Speaker 1: Next thing we know, we've got a massive inflation problem.

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Speaker 1: We've got a massive lack of alliances in the world problem.

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Speaker 1: There's theories out there that the US just came from

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Speaker 1: Condoleeza Rice or something from about a dozen years ago.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't Condoleeza someone else that said that the US

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Speaker 1: as big as fear is an alliance between Germany and

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Speaker 1: Russia because of Germany's technology in Russia's resources. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: so so bombing the pipeline on the one hand, looks

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Speaker 1: like US to sever that. My opinions, that looks like

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Speaker 1: it would strengthen it, because if I were Germany, I'd

426
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: kick us to the curb. Yeah. Well, if I were Germany,

427
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 1: I'd be so unbelievably mad that the US blew up

428
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 1: that pipeline. And if you're listening to say, well, we

429
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 1: didn't know the US blow up the pipeline, I said,

430
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: get a cat scan here. Jesus Christ. We've all watched

431
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 1: enough murder mysteries or detective shows on TV. We also

432
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 1: watched the former Polish defense minister thank the United States

433
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 1: for doing it. Yeah, so he thinks we did it.

434
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: So that's enough for me. At this point, I would

435
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 1: say it certainly has to tie back to NATO, and

436
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 1: there's no way a NATO country would do without the

437
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 1: US knowing about it. I mean that just and and

438
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: our navy was over the pipeline the previous month. So

439
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: so um, I mean there's there's a lot there. On

440
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 1: top of the whole pipeline situation. What we've seen now

441
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: a growing disconnect between Europe and the US, specifically France

442
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: and Germany because of this inflation Reduction Act and now

443
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: on shoring stuff, and now that's making people buy American

444
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 1: and so now Europe feels like they've been kicked to

445
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 1: the curb. And so all of this is changing, this

446
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: is rapidly changing. We have you mentioned Saudi potentially, you know,

447
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: kind of breaking the petro dollar and creating this yuan,

448
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 1: you know, petro yuan or whatever. I think that's kind

449
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 1: of like a done deal in my opinion. I mean,

450
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 1: we see that, it looks it looks it looks like

451
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: that's that's going to happen. And so if we which

452
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: we're on this path, and I think we continue, the

453
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 1: bricks nations continue to rise. China interesting enough, I don't

454
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 1: know how much I think you pay attention to the

455
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 1: gold market. China just announced that they added a thirty

456
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: tons of gold, and like, why would they announce that

457
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,239
Speaker 1: they certainly didn't just buy that why would they announce that.

458
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 1: Right now, we see what Russia is adding in gold.

459
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: You see what's happening with the Petro Juan, the bricks nations.

460
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: There's certainly competition going for the you know, the currency

461
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: and reserve hedgemon. To your point, do you think that continues?

462
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: I mean, is that where you see things going well?

463
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: Certainly Russian China are acting like a gold standard could

464
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: be in our future. They're not bashful about accruing gold.

465
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: I have seen estimates, and again I've seen estimates that

466
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: are just stupid, estimates of anything imaginable, right, anything you

467
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 1: can think of, there's an estimate suggesting that out there.

468
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 1: But I've seen estimates that China might have as much

469
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 1: as say eighty thousand tons of gold. Now that puts

470
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: in a factor of ten higher than other estimates. Yeah,

471
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 1: but let us just say that China's got a lot

472
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 1: of gold, and part of it's because the sovereign owned

473
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: companies are also gold hoarders, so they might not show

474
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: up as official gold reserves. But at the same time,

475
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 1: if they're owned by the state, then they are official

476
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: gold reserves. Um. So I would say that it looks

477
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: to me like someone wants to topple the dollar. Therefore

478
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 1: someone wants to topple the US hegemon. I'm reading a

479
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 1: book right now called The Sovereign Man, which someone put

480
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 1: me onto. It's nineteen ninety seven. I thought it would

481
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: be old and stale because the argument is that the

482
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: tech tech the sovereign sovereign individual. I think it's the

483
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: sovereign Man. I'm listening to audiobooks, so I don't see

484
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: the title often. I think it's a sovereign individual. Potentially

485
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: it was written a name by esmog reesmog okay, so

486
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: I got I got the yeah, and I thought it

487
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: would seem stale because I'm going on, they're gonna be

488
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: talking about Yahoo or something at that point. Um, it's

489
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 1: actually brilliantly and timelessly done. Another great one is The

490
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: True Believer, which I highly recommend. There's books that just

491
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 1: get into my DNA and right now the sovereign individuals

492
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: doing a fine job. And he makes the argument that

493
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: we're in a five hundred year rollover. So if you

494
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 1: take for example, the Roman Empire, and then you got

495
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 1: the period of Charlemagne, and you got the period which

496
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: the Church dominated the globe. So the church, and that

497
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: became too big expense or whatever, and then that gave

498
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: way to sovereign states. He makes the agrement there is

499
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 1: Yet we are in the beginnings of another rollover, and

500
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 1: this is the digital world, which will be more distributed,

501
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: less based on geographic borders, more based on digital connectivities.

502
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: And I'm not a huge digital guy. So so I

503
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: don't yet own a bitcoin. I know, I say the word,

504
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 1: yet I do well, I do have ideas in my

505
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 1: head as trigger points. Yeah right, and I do believe

506
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: it's a good idea. It will patiently wait for me

507
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: and um and uh but but but so I think

508
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 1: the bitcoin maximalists, I think this is going to happen

509
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: in the blink of an eye, and it's not going

510
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 1: to do that. I don't think it. Could we get

511
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: mushroom clouds, right, but um, but we could be rolling

512
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: over into a new world. You know, when the Roman

513
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: Empire collapsed, they didn't know it was collapsing. It wasn't like,

514
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: oh my god, it collapse last night. What was what happened?

515
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 1: Right that? It took centuries and they find said, wait

516
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 1: a minute, you know, we kind of sucked. Now, no

517
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 1: one really noticed, but we suck. Yeah, and so it's

518
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: quite possible that the next five hundred years. Now, if

519
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: it takes two hundred to get there, then why do

520
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 1: we care? Right? But but but the other thing is

521
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: these big rollovers cost chaos. They are very violent, painful,

522
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: upheaving rollovers. And even if they take two centuries, there's

523
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: just a lot, a lot of trouble as the power

524
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: structure readjusts and and and so then how do you

525
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: plan for that? And you know, bitcoin gold, you know,

526
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: get your affairs in order. You know, there's just there's

527
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 1: things that you should assume may not be there that

528
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: you've always assumed would always be there. So let's keep

529
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: diving down deeper. So first of all, do I just

530
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,719
Speaker 1: want to say something that I have this big thesis.

531
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: I pound the table on for a last almost two

532
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: years three cycles converging. So to your point, this five

533
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 1: hundred year rollover, you can break it in two hundred

534
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 1: fifty year cycles, and then there's three eighty four year

535
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: cycles fit into two hundret year cycles, so you can

536
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: kind of keep breaking it down. But on a two

537
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: hundre year cycle, it's like this pendulum swings from centralization

538
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: to decentralization, so every five hundred it turns over completely

539
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: to your p two hundre fifty years ago is the

540
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: American and French Revolution, and then two unfree years before

541
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: that was the Protestant Reformation. And then we have an

542
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: eighty year financial revolution cycle, so eighty years ago as

543
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: the Breton Woods Agreement. So that's the classic fourth turning

544
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: cycle right there. Yeah, the classic fourth turning cycle. You know,

545
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: generational theory cycle. There's a populist uprising, a regime chain

546
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: cycle about every eighty years, so all kind of fits

547
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 1: within that. And then but the financial revolution cycle is different, right,

548
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: So that was when the whole financial system resets. So

549
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: this is like Ray Dalio's long term credit cycles. And

550
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: then on a fifty year cycle, a forty to sixty

551
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: but about a fifty year cycle is a technology revolution

552
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: cycle or chondredge in a wave cycle. And so if

553
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 1: you map these out, fifty year, eighty year, and a

554
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: two and fifty year but they're all three converging right now.

555
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: So all that's happening right now, which is why things

556
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: are going pretty crazy. I've done a lot of work

557
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:18,959
Speaker 1: on that. I've got a ton of videos. So if

558
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: you're watching this, you can go check catch us on

559
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: the channel. But if we keep diving down into this,

560
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: you mentioned if they challenge the global hegemon. You were

561
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: talking about Saudi Arabia, you know, de dollarizing the petro dollar,

562
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: which appears to be done. In my opinion, it's going

563
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: that way and a lot of it is being forced. Right.

564
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 1: The dollars become so weaponized. When Russia, one of three

565
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: global superpowers, had their bank account sees, everyone took notice

566
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: to that, and so that is certainly affecting the global

567
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: hegemon where it's certainly bringing down the dollar demand potentially.

568
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: You know, the dollar as the reserve currency status because

569
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: of the financi system we have, it's pretty robust, but

570
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: we can leap frog that with a CBD system like

571
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 1: China's doing. And I guess the point I want to

572
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: get to is you mentioned that could cause inflation. So

573
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: inflation is the hot topic. Obviously it was transitory and

574
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: now it's a big problem. The Fed went on this

575
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: crazy rate hiking cycle, the fastest we've seen in history,

576
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: and now it's starting to plunge. And now they've decided

577
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: to recalculate the CPI basket and we could potentially get

578
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: into deflation this year or maybe not. What's your take

579
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: on the inflation now? As well? Every year I write

580
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 1: about inflation, it's I've challenged people to tell me, give

581
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: me examples of countries that inflated their way out of

582
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 1: a serious debt. And it turns out it's hard to do.

583
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: And so if you start thinking of some of the

584
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: classic hyperinflations, they actually don't achieve that. So the Vibear

585
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: inflation or Argentine or something like that, they end up

586
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: in the end defaulting, which is a deflation. They end

587
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 1: up just saying we're not paying and so, so to me,

588
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 1: that's a deflationary default. Um. The Weimar Germany, they hurt

589
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 1: their own countrymen with the inflation, but therefore and debt

590
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: was denominated in gold, and so they led to World

591
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: War two not to not to a debt relief. Um.

592
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: The best example turns out to be post World War

593
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: two the US, where we had a big war debt.

594
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: We we did financial oppression on the US bond market.

595
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: Real rates got down to something like negative temper cent. Then, too,

596
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: we tend not to hear about that chapter and Um,

597
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 1: and you say, therefore you can inflate away your debt

598
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: then by beating up the bond market. But you have

599
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: to remember, I think this number is correct. I think

600
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: the US at that point was eighty percent of the

601
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: global GDP. So to say, oh, we inflated aware that

602
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: and not mentioned the fact that we ran the world

603
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: is just it's just it's an oversight. It's a serious oversight.

604
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: So so I'm not convinced the FED can inflated away.

605
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 1: I think I think you had. It's like chasing your shadow.

606
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: I think you you never catch up. Now we also

607
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 1: know the inflation is not plumbting. You said plumbering. The

608
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: CPI is plummeting. Maybe yeah, yeah, yeah, Well it's a fraud.

609
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: I mean, so you know, my brothers an accountan. He

610
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: kept keeps track of everything, and his year of a

611
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 1: year food prices went up forty one percent. Wow, Jimmy

612
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: I Orio said his restaurant twenty five percent. Restaurant downtown.

613
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,959
Speaker 1: The guy says, I don't know the number, but it

614
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 1: goes up every week every week. So, uh, you know,

615
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: we got eggs selling for five bucks at Carton. I

616
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 1: used to buy Ribbi for like nine bucks a pound.

617
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: You know, I bought a value pack and now it's

618
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: more like eighteen. These are very short time scales at

619
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: these prices when and they're sticky. It's not like Ribbi

620
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 1: is going to go back to nine. We've got them.

621
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 1: And so so from this point on, things are I

622
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: didn't even know how Joe sixpacks putting food on the table.

623
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: I really don't know how they're doing it, because they

624
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: were already just barely making ends meet. Well, part of

625
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 1: what they're doing is they're taking a lot less quality food,

626
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 1: which then starts to lead to health problems and all

627
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 1: types of other things. But yeah, but but it's it's

628
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 1: it's got to be suffocating because it's not like they

629
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: were eating prime rib right, and now they can downgrade

630
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 1: to Hamburger. I mean they're they're downgrading from Hamburger. Yeah,

631
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 1: and so then the question is what are they downgrading too.

632
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: I know a woman who said, as a kid, her

633
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: entire life, they hs oatmeal. Well, they could be back there,

634
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: just rice just soame. Who knows. But if we look

635
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: at you know, if you if you look back, well,

636
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: first of all, back to the financial repression. Um. You know,

637
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: the IMF put out a white paper in twenty fifteen said,

638
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 1: that's kind of the way forward. Black Rocks put out

639
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: a paper way forward, and so basically for everybody listening

640
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: that doesn't know what that is, you can go look

641
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 1: it up. I've done several videos on it. But basically,

642
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: inflation runs hotter than what the bond yields pay and

643
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 1: then they steal the middle. That's how they kind of

644
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 1: inflate away their debt, which to your point, worked well

645
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: in World War two or in nineteen forties, maybe not

646
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: so well now, but that seems to be maybe the

647
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 1: potential playbook. But I guess what I was asking in

648
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: regards to inflation. To the average consumer that has to

649
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 1: put gas in their pickup truck and buy food at

650
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: the store, they don't care what CPI says. They just

651
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: care what the what the cash register says. But the

652
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 1: Fed seems to care because the Fed has a dual mandate,

653
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: one of which is stable prices, and so if inflation

654
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 1: is nine percent, they look horrible, and so Jerome Palace says,

655
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: we're committed to it right bringing inflation back down. So

656
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 1: if they recalculate, I don't know if you saw the

657
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:43,240
Speaker 1: BLS announced their changing the CPI calculation this month instead

658
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: of using a two year comp it goes to a

659
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 1: one year comp. So now they just measure off of

660
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: last year, which was the highest inflation in forty years.

661
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: And so just from changing that measure point, CPI comes down.

662
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 1: So I guess the question is if the FED pulled

663
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 1: the liquidity a way that pulled the punch bowl away

664
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: and things start going to hell in a hand basket

665
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,879
Speaker 1: by fudging the numbers, does that give them the cover

666
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 1: they need to start easing back in or at least

667
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 1: pausing what they're doing. I don't think so. No, no,

668
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 1: because because I think the FED created what I probably

669
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: at ten years ago, created the monetary capacitor. So you

670
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 1: keep charging it and charging it and there's no current,

671
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 1: no current, no current, and then bam, whack it discharges.

672
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 1: That's how a capacitor works. And I think the capacitor

673
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 1: is discharging, and so you can't inflations in our DNA.

674
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: If you ask a contractor, go find any contractor and say, okay,

675
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,720
Speaker 1: imagine you're going to build a house in two years.

676
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: How much are you going to add on to your

677
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: bid from today for two years from now to adjust

678
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 1: for the increased costs of labor? And materials. I've asked

679
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,839
Speaker 1: that question, the answers around thirty percent. That means that

680
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: contractor will put that thirty percent in there. And if

681
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 1: you're a union negotiator, you're going to put a big

682
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 1: raise in there. And so the inflations, inflation expectations have

683
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 1: now taken hold, and now it is wired into the

684
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 1: system for the price to go up. So maybe the

685
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 1: inflation won't run like the way lumber ran in twenty

686
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: twenty one or something, but it's not to say it's

687
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 1: not going to go fifteen percent a year. Yeah, And

688
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 1: the CPI numbers just garbage. I mean, it's just complete garbage.

689
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 1: And I agree. And so if I'm trying to build

690
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 1: a house, I don't care what CPI says. I just

691
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 1: care what the price of lumber is and I have

692
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: to figure out where it's going to be. But I

693
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: guess the point that I'm trying to go back to

694
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 1: is the FED seems to be like focused on this

695
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: two to three percent number. Nine percent is not sustainable.

696
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,760
Speaker 1: We know, you know, shadow Stats tracks the original basket

697
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: from the nineteen eighties. They say, right now, you know

698
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: the last reading was six six point four five six

699
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 1: and a half percent. Shadow Stats says it's fifteen point six,

700
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:57,439
Speaker 1: as does the Chapwood Index. As the Chapwood Index, Yeah,

701
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,959
Speaker 1: so we know real inflation is way more, to your point,

702
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 1: maybe thirty percent. It depends on what you're buying obviously, right,

703
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: depends on what your personal basket is. So we know

704
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 1: it's way higher than what they tell us. I guess

705
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: the question I'm asking though, is it gets worse for consumers.

706
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: Inflation continues to get worse. But if the CPI official number,

707
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,720
Speaker 1: which is a lie, if the CPI false number comes

708
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: down to three percent, does the Fed go, Okay, We've

709
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:26,720
Speaker 1: done our job. Now we don't have to keep hiking. Well,

710
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: that's like a person who has stage four cancer for

711
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: some reason, they come up with a mechanism not to

712
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,760
Speaker 1: see it, I know, and saying okay, we're not seeing

713
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 1: the tumor. Now we can stop the keebo. Yeah. So

714
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: the facts don't change just because you come up with

715
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: a new way to measure it and so so. So

716
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 1: the answer is no. What will happen is the I

717
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: also think that's not what the Fed's gonna do. That's

718
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: where I seem to be. It's not a panel discussion

719
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 1: with guys who are way more experienced than me, and

720
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: they were talking about things in a different language than

721
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 1: I was, And I think Powell faces a dilemma. So Powell,

722
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 1: starting probably two years ago, Steven Roach wrote an article

723
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 1: that really got legs. And I'm actually taking some credit

724
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: because I shoveled it over to zero Hedge for him,

725
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: and that's a good place to get it. He compared

726
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 1: Powell to Arthur Burns, who is a disaster now as

727
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: the chair of the of the Federal Reserve. You do

728
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: not want to be compared to Arthur Burns. And when

729
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 1: those headlines started appairing Awannuel, Larry Summer starts comparing you

730
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 1: to Arthur Burns and other players started comparing tons, you

731
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,959
Speaker 1: got a problem in your own head, your personal head.

732
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: So as Peter brook Part said, is one of the panelists,

733
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 1: said the FED was horribly embarrassed by the inflation. The

734
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 1: word embarrassed was used. So here's what I think Paul

735
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 1: is going to do. I think his name is longer Jpoe.

736
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 1: I think his name is going to be Jay Payne,

737
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 1: and he is going to have to decide between being

738
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: a supporter of markets and a destroyer of currencies or

739
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 1: our supporter of the integrity of the Federal Reserve and

740
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 1: a destroyer of economies. And and he's going to have

741
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 1: to decide does he want to be up in the

742
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 1: pantheon of losers with Arthur Burns or with winners like

743
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: Paul Vulker. And I believe Paul, being a human, probably

744
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 1: pondering his legacy. I think he and he's told us

745
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 1: he's going to cause pain. I think Tis said that, yeah,

746
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:31,479
Speaker 1: And and Volker made big mistakes. Vaulter took his foot

747
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 1: off the throat of the of the market, and then

748
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,720
Speaker 1: inflation took off again. And Paul knows this, if David

749
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 1: and Nifcan knows this, Paul knows this, and so he

750
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: doesn't want to be the guy who then let inflation.

751
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:47,359
Speaker 1: It's like putting out three quarters of a fire. Yeah, well,

752
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 1: we'll let the rest just burn. It just doesn't make sense.

753
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 1: And it out PAULA said so much. He said, yeah,

754
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 1: he said, the big mistake or danger is that we

755
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: don't do enough, like like Arthur Burns. He said, I

756
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: would rather go too far and break things because we

757
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 1: have the tool to rebuild them. That and that's the

758
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 1: part that I think is a bit of a lie um.

759
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: But I can't rebuild them, Yeah, I don't think. And

760
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 1: the reason that here's the reason they don't have the tools,

761
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 1: because here's here's the economic pitch, which I've pieced together

762
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 1: from a bunch of smart people in some of my

763
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 1: own creation. We had a bull market that went from

764
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: eighty one to twenty twenty one. It was a forty

765
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: year run, had some stops along the way, but it

766
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: was a great, great period that bull market started and

767
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,879
Speaker 1: got its fuel from the boomers who are just entering

768
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 1: the workforce, the Russians who the Berlin the Soviet unions

769
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: collapsed and they needed they needed capital and all they

770
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 1: had was resources, so they flooded the world with cheap resources.

771
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 1: The Chinese who came out of the Dark ages and

772
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: flooded the world with capital, with human resources. You've got

773
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 1: You've got interest rates that went from spectacularly high numbers

774
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 1: because Vulkard had to ramp them up and they were

775
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:09,919
Speaker 1: able to march those rates down systematically for forty years.

776
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 1: And we have market valuations. This is the stunning part.

777
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: People don't know this. I look at twenty five different

778
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 1: metrics of market valuations. The market valuation. From nineteen eighty

779
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: one to twenty twenty one, forty years, the valuation rose

780
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 1: four percent per year. That's a four percent tailwind. That's

781
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 1: not real growth, it's just increasing price. Now, what happens

782
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: if the next forty years we marched the valuations down

783
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:44,439
Speaker 1: four percent a year every year, that'll be a four

784
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 1: percent headwind. That's an eight percent swing. Meanwhile, China is

785
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 1: not going to be flooding more workers in the market,

786
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: Russia is not going to be so desperate to sell resources.

787
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 1: They have them, But it's not like the world's filled

788
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: with resources now and the boomer demographic is gone. So

789
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: what part of this story is going to repeat? Yeah,

790
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 1: I mean we the demographic pieces is really big. I've

791
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 1: been following Harry Den for a long time and he

792
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: wrote a book called The Demographic Cliff. There's been lots

793
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:16,360
Speaker 1: of books written about it. Peter Zion is pounding the

794
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 1: table on that as well, And so that's a big piece.

795
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,479
Speaker 1: You don't I don't trust Scion. I think his data

796
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 1: is good, but I don't trust his motive. Yeah, he

797
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: seems like I can be wrong. Yeah, Yeah, he's got

798
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: a neo con streak in him. But he's worth listening to.

799
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 1: I read his book, but he's also got a confidence

800
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 1: level that dwarfs my own I had I had him

801
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: on and I would agree. And unfortunately his hubris, or

802
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 1: to your point, his confidence level kind of mutug smugness

803
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: mute some of the content. But his book is full

804
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 1: of chock full of good data. It's phenomenal, and it's

805
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: a horror story, and it's a horror story, and I

806
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: believe most of it, but a lot of it. You

807
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: have with every piece of content, you have to go

808
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: who's telling me, what are their motive was, what other biases?

809
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 1: What's the fact and what's opinion? But he does have

810
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: a lot of good data and you can draw your

811
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:08,400
Speaker 1: own conclusions, and so it's worth while. But to the

812
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: point I was making is he kind of also talks

813
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: about this as other people do. I've read several books

814
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 1: on demographics, and so we if you increase the population,

815
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:20,320
Speaker 1: you increase the money supply, you get booms. When you

816
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 1: increase the population and decrease the money supply, what happens, well,

817
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 1: it's the opposite. So I just don't see any of

818
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 1: the tailwinds. And we had a whole pile I don't

819
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 1: see any of them persisting. So I think that my

820
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 1: base model for just being Joe six back investors, We're

821
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 1: going to have a generation long, grinding bear market, and

822
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 1: it'll have ups and downs, and it'll have rolling, rolling events.

823
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: And here's what I like to remind people. Here's some

824
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 1: benchmarks that are worth noting. One is that if you're

825
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 1: doing and if you look at the inflation adjust an

826
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 1: S and P, whether you start back in nineteen oh

827
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: six or you start back in nineteen twenty nine, both

828
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 1: of which were market peaks, you ended up tying. You

829
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 1: ended up at exactly the same agent inflation adjusted price

830
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:15,760
Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty one. So if you go from peak

831
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: to trough, it can take between forty and seventy five years.

832
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 1: All you got were dividends. That's all you got now,

833
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 1: first half of the twentieth century at four percent, that

834
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 1: happens to be just about the number that Buffett says

835
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 1: is all you can ever hope to get. Now the

836
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 1: modern dividends more like two percent, And you go, well,

837
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: that's a problem. I go, yeah, it's also the evidence

838
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 1: that the market's two x over valued. Now. The second

839
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: plot's a fascinating chart by again Ron Greys. I don't

840
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 1: know how to say his name because I never talked

841
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 1: to him directly. He plots the S and P versus

842
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 1: the M two money supply, which sounds like a much

843
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 1: cleaner inflation metric, right, what a nice Just let's look

844
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 1: at the money supply compared to the price of the equities,

845
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 1: and it turns out that over the twentieth century they

846
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 1: are dead flat. Yeah. Now they they roll and weave

847
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:10,240
Speaker 1: and bob, but over one hundred years they don't move.

848
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:16,359
Speaker 1: And that means once again, all you get our dividends. Yeah,

849
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: I've seen I've seen those charts when you take the

850
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 1: money supply and or central bank balance sheets, you know,

851
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 1: divided by asset prices, specifically the stock market. S ANDP

852
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 1: five hundred seems to be a perfect proxy for that. Um,

853
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 1: I guess. The one question I always ask, though, is

854
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 1: like over what time frame? So I agree with what

855
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: you're saying. I agree with the demographic problem. I believe

856
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: kind of to these cyclos thesis. I believe the world

857
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 1: continues to decentralize, supply chains, breakdown that causes inflation, onshoring

858
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: jobs that cause inflations. I agree with all of that

859
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 1: but that's like a long term thesis I'm thinking, and

860
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 1: we also have were we saw firsthand in twenty twenty

861
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: the markets, asset prices, and the economies do not equal

862
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 1: each other anymore. Right. We saw the eco to me

863
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 1: literally shut down. Business is closed, and asset prices go

864
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: to it all time high, and so it was kind

865
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 1: of that ky recovery they talk about. So while I

866
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: agree Joe six pack is in for a world of

867
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 1: hurt and steak and gas will be more expensive, and

868
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 1: I agree over the long term you can't print your

869
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: way out of this. It doesn't work for Zimbabwe or

870
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:23,360
Speaker 1: Waimar Republic. And so over a long time frame, I

871
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 1: agree with that, But what about the short time frame?

872
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,879
Speaker 1: And so if CPI comes down to two or three

873
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: percent in the next couple of months, if we get

874
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 1: month over month deflation or even year over year deflation

875
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 1: by quarter three, which maybe looks like it could be possible,

876
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: does the FED go, well, Shoot, it was seven hundred

877
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 1: billion in two thousand and eight, it was ten trillion

878
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 1: or whatever five trillion on the FED in twenty twenty.

879
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 1: I guess, let's go ten trillion. What if the markets

880
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:54,240
Speaker 1: decide that the FED is completely lost their shit. Yeah,

881
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 1: they lose confidence. Well, so that's the problem. So one

882
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:00,080
Speaker 1: of the things all those tailwinds I just described I

883
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 1: did is they produce like what I call the era

884
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 1: of the V bounce. We'd be cruising along and a

885
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 1: phenomenal awkward trajectory and then something bad would happen and

886
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,280
Speaker 1: all of a sudden and what is a relatively short

887
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 1: window of time, it would go down and plump some law,

888
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 1: which by the way, was never really very cheap, and

889
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: then it would spring right back and they'd go along

890
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 1: for another chunk of time and they just V bounce

891
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 1: their way up. Well, you can do that if you

892
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 1: have all these tools. But the Fed is pegged against zero.

893
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:32,799
Speaker 1: You can say, you know, Fed funds right, what's the

894
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 1: Fed funds right? Right now? What's four and a half right?

895
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 1: That's I remember when the Fed funds rate was fifteen

896
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 1: or sixteen. Yeah, so they had a lot of room

897
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 1: to play around. All let's tapping down to thirteen, let's

898
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 1: tapping down to twelve. But they could do stuff. If

899
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 1: they cut the Fed funds rate and inflation takes off,

900
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: they're screwed. They are so screwed because we'll say oh

901
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 1: oh oh, the FED has no longer got a dual mandate.

902
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 1: They've given up the one mandate they were supposed I

903
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: don't even buy the dual mandate. I don't think the

904
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 1: Fed's job should be anything but protect the currency. I

905
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 1: think the dual mandate something they got Congress to give

906
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 1: to them, and I don't agree with it. I don't

907
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: think the FED should be worried about inflation and so

908
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 1: and they're not. So. So if we reach some point

909
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 1: or say, holy cow, the FED is not driving the cab,

910
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 1: but now we are. But what if they are worried

911
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 1: about inflation but they're using a wrong, faulty metric, then

912
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 1: we know that they're incompetent and we will lose faith

913
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 1: in them. We have no no, no, no, no, no no,

914
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 1: because no, not me right. Look look, look read all

915
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 1: the headlines. You know everyone's asking, oh, oh, oh oh,

916
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 1: the Fed's gonna the Fed's gonna stop raising rates as

917
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,280
Speaker 1: soon as it gets problematic. They all think the Fed's

918
00:49:56,320 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 1: gonna save them. Every market diticipants somehow seems to think

919
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 1: that the FED has the switch and all they have

920
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: to do is wait for the FED that flip the

921
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 1: switch and it'll be it'll be sunshines and skittles rainbows again.

922
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:15,839
Speaker 1: And I don't think that's true. The Fed mouthpiece tim

923
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: Rose Wall Street Journal. Tim Rose said that we will see.

924
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: I thought it was Nick Timorrose, Yeah, Timorrose, Yeah, oh Timorrose,

925
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:25,359
Speaker 1: Oh tim Rose, Timorrose, Timorrose. I was picking up two names.

926
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 1: I wasn't putting together. He said, We're probably they're gonna

927
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 1: go back down to a point two five will be

928
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 1: the next hikes. That's more of like a pause, not

929
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: a flip the switch necessary, but definitely coming off the

930
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: points n five to a point two five. And if

931
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,720
Speaker 1: you look at risk assets, they seem to be doing something,

932
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: sniffing something well, But then you got the FED guys

933
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 1: where Bullard they'll say we're going up, and someone else

934
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:48,439
Speaker 1: will say we're going down. What these guys have been

935
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: doing since Greenspan retired, as they've been replacing Greenspan's legendary

936
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 1: gobbledegook the crap that he used to spew and say

937
00:50:57,719 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 1: nothing with a midi full of gunk even more. And

938
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 1: so no sooner will Bullet say one thing, someone else

939
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 1: will say something else. They've got to be coordinating. They've

940
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 1: got to be coordinating. So it's got to be one

941
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:14,359
Speaker 1: of these things. Let's keep them guessing. It wasn't that

942
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 1: long ago that the FED didn't tell us what they

943
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:20,320
Speaker 1: were doing. Participants had to watch things watching to say, oh,

944
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:23,800
Speaker 1: the FED must be tightening. We didn't know that. Yeah,

945
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 1: we had to infer they were tightening or easing. But

946
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:33,320
Speaker 1: now now the whole world there, the entire equity market

947
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 1: is based on technical indicators. Now. Yeah, when it was

948
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:38,399
Speaker 1: the last time someone said, you know, we really think

949
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 1: there's a goodbye because the cash flow is great, right,

950
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:44,600
Speaker 1: if the cash flow is great, always tech companies to

951
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 1: be crap. Yeah, yeah, oh for sure, they're disconnected. And

952
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 1: then you could go into and I don't want to

953
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: get into that, but you know, then other people think

954
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 1: that the FED actually has no control and there's a

955
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:54,760
Speaker 1: big piece of that. Well, I think they could become

956
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 1: the case. It's my point. Yeah, So I like to

957
00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 1: you know, I'm an Austrian, Austrian economics, so I like

958
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 1: to think of, you know what Mesa said. And then

959
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: suddenly the people realize that inflation is both permanent and intentional,

960
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 1: and then they lose it out right as the crack

961
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 1: up boom, the crack up boom, And so that's the

962
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 1: point that you're talking about, and I agree at some

963
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 1: point that happens and just kind of win. So if we,

964
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 1: if we, if we kind of just kind of distill

965
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 1: this down. Obviously we have no crystal ball. We're just

966
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:28,800
Speaker 1: sitting there having fun talking about it. But you think

967
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 1: that the FED is potentially and I don't want to

968
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 1: put words in your mouth, and so maybe you just

969
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 1: tell me, like in the markets, stock markets, the risk assets, liquidity,

970
00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 1: treasury liquidity, which I know there's a whole whole big

971
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,000
Speaker 1: problem there. Do you think this year continues to get

972
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 1: worse or do you think maybe they're kind of being

973
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 1: able to pull off this hic magical soft landing. I

974
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:58,400
Speaker 1: don't think there's such a thing as a magical soft landing. Um.

975
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 1: I think I think a year is too short a

976
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 1: timescale for me. And I do think if you make

977
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 1: me bad, which I do have to because because I

978
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 1: have savings, yeah, I think this will probably be a

979
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 1: bad year. That's my guess. The other thing to remember

980
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 1: is is that if every time the FED does something

981
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 1: spooky and the markets don't break, that emboldens the FED

982
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 1: and to believe they can do some more now because

983
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,640
Speaker 1: they're desperate to get at this crap back, right they did,

984
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: you know the FED by the way, you know, without

985
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 1: the Fed, there would have been no lockdown if someone

986
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 1: hadn't said to the Fed, we got a lockdown, and

987
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 1: the FED said, okay, we'll get your back on the

988
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 1: money side of things, we'll go direct. We'll do what

989
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 1: what Blackrock told us to in twenty nineteen, go direct.

990
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 1: Shop money into the consumer pockets will help with that.

991
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 1: If the FED had said, screw that too dangerous monetarily,

992
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:54,360
Speaker 1: you're on your own, there wouldn't have been a lockdown.

993
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 1: Hey Dave, you know you just made the case for

994
00:53:56,640 --> 00:54:00,880
Speaker 1: a bitcoin. I did separate money in state, take the

995
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:02,560
Speaker 1: hands out of the thing of the government. What fa

996
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 1: Hike said, So just throw that in there. No, no, no, no,

997
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 1: I've never credited my concerns over bitcoin are not the

998
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 1: idea of bitcoin is that. Um, it's that the bitcoin holdlers.

999
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,760
Speaker 1: I really sincerely believe we're gonna have to do battle

1000
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:22,759
Speaker 1: against the state capital s. And what I'm watching for

1001
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 1: is either evidence that that's not going to have to happen.

1002
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:29,800
Speaker 1: But I also worry that if you guys, if bitcoin

1003
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 1: becomes normalized, you will lose. You will lose what bitcoin

1004
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 1: is meant to be. Somehow they will absorb it like

1005
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 1: they did the tea party. They will absorb it like

1006
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 1: they did Maga. They will find a way or I

1007
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 1: think they're going to at some point say oh bitcoins, bitcoins,

1008
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 1: the currency of scoundrels. Will step on it. I know

1009
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 1: you guys can say that you can't step on it

1010
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 1: because it's it's it's it's it's distributed. But if they say, look,

1011
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:58,720
Speaker 1: we're going to prison for ten years if you spend bitcoin,

1012
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 1: most of us are out. Let me. Let me just

1013
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: throw a couple of things back at that real quickly.

1014
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 1: So one our good, our mutual friend, Tom Longo, you know,

1015
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:08,279
Speaker 1: he talks about the FED fighting against you know, the

1016
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:10,400
Speaker 1: ECB and the Dabalis group and all that, right, and

1017
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:12,839
Speaker 1: so kind of kind of to the first point, which is, uh,

1018
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 1: the governments or the central banks will never allow a

1019
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 1: money like bitcoin to compete with them, and that that

1020
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 1: would probably be true. Who wants to give up control

1021
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 1: of the money right, control the RNY, control of the world.

1022
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,839
Speaker 1: But then again towards Tom's thesis is well, the FED

1023
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 1: doesn't want to give up control to the ECB, right,

1024
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 1: and the FED doesn't want to lose our autonomy to

1025
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 1: the Treasury, and the Treasury he's gonna need money, the

1026
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:34,800
Speaker 1: Fed's not gonna want to give it to him. And

1027
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,480
Speaker 1: what about the what about what about the jay you know,

1028
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:39,760
Speaker 1: Japan Center Bank, or what about China and the bricks

1029
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:43,400
Speaker 1: and so like, there's way bigger factions and battles to

1030
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:46,240
Speaker 1: be fought than a four hundred billion assets. Expect Russell

1031
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 1: Crowe to step out into this battlefield, you know, I

1032
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 1: just know it's unbelievable. I think I think there's a

1033
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 1: big fight before you ever get to bitcoin. The other

1034
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:57,399
Speaker 1: thing I would say about that is, then again, why

1035
00:55:57,480 --> 00:55:59,799
Speaker 1: would they want to allow someone to have this way

1036
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,480
Speaker 1: to get out of the currency system. Well, nobody in

1037
00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 1: the world believes they should, well almost nobody believes they

1038
00:56:06,120 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 1: should store their wealth and currency. So we put our

1039
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:12,760
Speaker 1: money into gold or stocks, or real estate or fine

1040
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:17,160
Speaker 1: art or cars or collectibles or whatever. And bitcoin is

1041
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:21,040
Speaker 1: just one more of dozens of potential store of value

1042
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 1: assets that we have. So then then that would be like, well,

1043
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 1: the Fed's going to take away every single store of

1044
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: value asset and so that doesn't seem highly likely too. No,

1045
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: I agree with that. The only problem with bitcoin is

1046
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 1: just the one that the most the advantages of bitcoin

1047
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:38,800
Speaker 1: are what bring it in the sights of the state,

1048
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 1: because it's I mean just the FED, I mean the

1049
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 1: Davos guys. Yeah, exactly, so so so um, we know

1050
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 1: there's going to be a battle. The last that's exactly

1051
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 1: the last thing I'd say is to your point, and

1052
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:53,320
Speaker 1: you made the case that they can't take it away,

1053
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:54,880
Speaker 1: but they could say we'll throw you in jail for

1054
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 1: ten years, or we'll kill you on site. They could

1055
00:56:56,600 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 1: say that as well. And since nineteen seven one, they've

1056
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 1: spent trillions of dollars on the War on drugs, and

1057
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,760
Speaker 1: yet drugs the number one cause of death in America

1058
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 1: today from eighteen to forty four is fentanyl. Well, but

1059
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:12,759
Speaker 1: there's no well there's no evidence you're trying to win

1060
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: that war. Well I know, but well, okay, so there's

1061
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,840
Speaker 1: But my point is if they catch you with drugs,

1062
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 1: they put you in prison. Our prison systems are full

1063
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 1: of people for drug chargers, and drugs are being done

1064
00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:25,960
Speaker 1: in prison, and so like they can't even stop drugs

1065
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:27,720
Speaker 1: in prison, and to your point, if we catch you,

1066
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 1: we'll put you in jail. Well, if we catch you

1067
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 1: with drugs, will put you in jail. And when they

1068
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:32,440
Speaker 1: tell someone like me and you that you shouldn't do

1069
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:33,920
Speaker 1: drugs or will put you in jail, it doesn't make

1070
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: me want to do drugs. I don't want to do that.

1071
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 1: But if they say, hey, Dave, you don't have a

1072
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:39,160
Speaker 1: right to store your wealth in a way we can't

1073
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 1: steal from you, then it sort of does. And so

1074
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 1: what happens when they talk about gun you know, taking it,

1075
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 1: take shutting down gun rights right, gun sales go through

1076
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 1: the roof. So I don't know, we'll see the future

1077
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 1: to be written. People say what price would get you

1078
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:57,200
Speaker 1: to buy bitcoin? It's not based on price, Yeah, it's

1079
00:57:57,280 --> 00:58:01,880
Speaker 1: based on sort of various geopolitical movements. Or there may

1080
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 1: very well come a day where I'm gonna go these

1081
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:07,920
Speaker 1: guys are right now, these guys are gonna win. They're

1082
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:13,480
Speaker 1: coming off the battlefield, scarred, bloody, but alive. And that

1083
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is I'm going to see.

1084
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 1: It's like porn. I don't when I see it. Maybe,

1085
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 1: And I don't need to capture the early days because

1086
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 1: I don't need to go into a fight not knowing

1087
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 1: who's going to win. So I'm like the US going

1088
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,800
Speaker 1: into World War two. I wait till we're going to win. Yeah,

1089
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 1: it's like private equity, right, I mean, you invest in

1090
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:32,400
Speaker 1: a new company, you don't know if it's going to work.

1091
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 1: So it's a lot of risk, a lot of upsides.

1092
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 1: You take a small, small, small pit, you know, a

1093
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:40,400
Speaker 1: small beat, small bit at it. But anyway, interesting conversation.

1094
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: It's interesting, you know, especially when you think about your worldview,

1095
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 1: and our worldview really lines up right the essentialization of

1096
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 1: the world and increased authoritarianism and um, you know, and

1097
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 1: there's you know, equal and opposite reactions. So more authority

1098
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 1: to oritarianism squeezing the more we pushed back. And then

1099
00:58:57,720 --> 00:59:01,360
Speaker 1: obviously you know, we didn't get into cbdcase, but oh

1100
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 1: I hate those, of course you do, right, And so

1101
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:07,440
Speaker 1: then it's like big problems equal big solutions, and then

1102
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: what solutions do we have? And then you kind of

1103
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 1: go down that rabbit hole. But I don't want to

1104
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:14,320
Speaker 1: keep going down that. But yeah, CBDCs that's the next

1105
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 1: big piece. Let's just talk about that. I got just

1106
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:18,560
Speaker 1: a couple of minutes left and you probably do too

1107
00:59:18,560 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 1: as well. But on the cbd front, let me just

1108
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 1: pose this question because it's a big topic. Obviously, China

1109
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 1: Rush there's out first, they're a dictator right communist, communist

1110
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:29,919
Speaker 1: country in the United States, though we know the FED

1111
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:32,600
Speaker 1: is now said we've been testing the CBDCs to transfer

1112
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 1: interbank transfers, etc. But the Constitution, that pesky document that

1113
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:39,520
Speaker 1: they keep trying to rewrite, says that the FED can't

1114
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 1: create money, only the Treasury can. So how does the

1115
00:59:44,080 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 1: FED legally today create a CBDC when legally they can't

1116
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:50,000
Speaker 1: do that without you know, rewriting law and a big

1117
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 1: fight and voting and all that. Like, it doesn't seem

1118
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 1: like it's a real imminent threat potentially in the United

1119
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 1: States right now. What's your thought on that? Well, history

1120
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 1: shows that the I think the Constitution was pristinely clear

1121
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:07,040
Speaker 1: and money can only be made out of gold and silver,

1122
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 1: and they skip that part, and so I think that

1123
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:14,840
Speaker 1: they will do what they want to do. The avidence

1124
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 1: sets they will do whatever they want to do. But

1125
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 1: doesn't that take a big process that could be dragged

1126
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:21,920
Speaker 1: out and people get to voice their opinions and it

1127
01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 1: probably I'm not sure it does. Right, look at recent

1128
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 1: health problems, right, things things happen fast, and we know

1129
01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 1: in to your point during the pandemic in the stimulus bills,

1130
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:39,000
Speaker 1: they were trying to insert some language into that to

1131
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:42,280
Speaker 1: sneak the CBDs or or through so, um, yeah, there

1132
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 1: could be something there. But again back to these warring factions.

1133
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 1: Does the Treasury want to give up control over money

1134
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 1: to the FED and does the you know so, well,

1135
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:53,720
Speaker 1: here's the thing a lot of people are not talking about. Um,

1136
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 1: it's minor compared to what you're talking about here, But um,

1137
01:00:57,480 --> 01:01:01,440
Speaker 1: I think historically FED chairs and presidents and administrations have

1138
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 1: tried to work together. There have been some shoving matches.

1139
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 1: Supposedly Lyndon Johnson jammed one of them right up against

1140
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 1: the wall. But we've got an administration now that looks

1141
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 1: hopelessly weak. And the other problem that the FETE is facing,

1142
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 1: which is I think unique, is that anything they do

1143
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:25,040
Speaker 1: to try to tighten is being undone by the extremely

1144
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 1: generous budgetary moves of the government right now, So what

1145
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 1: are we growing our debt seven a half percent a

1146
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:35,400
Speaker 1: year or something like that. You cannot inflate away debt

1147
01:01:36,120 --> 01:01:38,360
Speaker 1: that's growing seven and a half percent a year without

1148
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 1: the debt being more than seven and a half percent,

1149
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 1: and and and it's kind of right now an upward spiral,

1150
01:01:44,920 --> 01:01:48,400
Speaker 1: and so and so. Now here's Powell looking at Biden

1151
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:52,200
Speaker 1: at all, saying, holy cow, of guys, I'm trying to

1152
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 1: get ahold of the system. And I let's say he's

1153
01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:55,960
Speaker 1: a good guy. I'm trying to get ahold of inflation.

1154
01:01:56,000 --> 01:01:58,160
Speaker 1: I'm trying to get ahold of the system. And you

1155
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 1: keep passing global warming bills, and you keep passing bills

1156
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 1: to send money to Ukraine for no apparent reason besides

1157
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 1: the fact that there's a big kickback scheme to the

1158
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 1: DNC and things like that. Big money is being spent

1159
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 1: in ways that are that make the Fed's job harder.

1160
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 1: And I don't know what that will translate into, but

1161
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 1: it could translate into the FEDS saying to the administration,

1162
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to crank race right up here. Yeah, it

1163
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:30,120
Speaker 1: seems to be a good probably that happens. Man. With that,

1164
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:31,920
Speaker 1: we'll go ahead and end it right there. We'll leave

1165
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 1: a cliffhanger, and if you love this, uh, leave your

1166
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:37,560
Speaker 1: comments and share it and maybe we'll talk with Dave again.

1167
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:41,440
Speaker 1: And a little bit later and catch back up on this, Dave.

1168
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:43,680
Speaker 1: Anything you want to draw people's attention to, We'll make

1169
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 1: sure to link your twenty twenty two report, which is

1170
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 1: long and worth reading, so I'll link that below. Anything

1171
01:02:48,800 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: else you want to draw attention to or last words, No,

1172
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 1: for me, this year was really about Ukraine and about

1173
01:02:57,120 --> 01:03:05,840
Speaker 1: the US military. U bad behavior. Stop stopped supporting overseas wars.

1174
01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 1: In my opinion, we're not We're no longer fighting for democracy,

1175
01:03:09,600 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 1: We're no longer none, none of that crap. It's really

1176
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:15,440
Speaker 1: we've gone totally off the I'm a Reagan Republican. I

1177
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 1: voted for Bush Senior. I'm not some McCarthy voter. I'm

1178
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:24,320
Speaker 1: not some I'm not some Ralph Nader voter. But but um,

1179
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:28,400
Speaker 1: but but we've had two hundred and fifty two military

1180
01:03:28,440 --> 01:03:32,160
Speaker 1: adventures overseas since nineteen ninety one, and now one of

1181
01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:35,400
Speaker 1: those countries attacked US, not a single one attack US. Now,

1182
01:03:35,520 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 1: there might have been some guy from some caves somewhere

1183
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:41,200
Speaker 1: or attackt US from which country we don't seem to know,

1184
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:46,280
Speaker 1: but no sovereign state attactus or why. Well I can

1185
01:03:46,320 --> 01:03:48,840
Speaker 1: give them some reasons why. But but two hundred and

1186
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:53,160
Speaker 1: fifty two times we've intervened, And the question is, are

1187
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:57,720
Speaker 1: we now officially the bully? Are we the Roman legions

1188
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:01,680
Speaker 1: in the final stages stopping around trying to keep the

1189
01:04:01,720 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 1: Empire from imploading? And I sure looks that way to me. Yeah, yeah, great,

1190
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:12,000
Speaker 1: great finished words there, Dave. I appreciate your time, really

1191
01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 1: good and really good conversation. I enjoyed it. So with

1192
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:16,200
Speaker 1: that we'll at and sign it off. Leave your comments

1193
01:04:16,200 --> 01:04:20,680
Speaker 1: down below, share this out, spread the word and trying

1194
01:04:20,680 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 1: to think through why, like what's really going on? I

1195
01:04:23,080 --> 01:04:24,920
Speaker 1: think that's probably a big takeaway you can get from this.

1196
01:04:25,000 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 1: So with that, thank you so much, Dave.