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Speaker 3: This is an honor right now. Dan Matthew joins US
Speaker 3: now chief Economist atwo point seven to two Steve Cohen
Speaker 3: shop and we're thrilling there and we can make jokes
Speaker 3: about one Sodo and all that with the New York Mets,
Speaker 3: except this is too important of a conversation. So you know,
Speaker 3: you're sitting down with mister Cohen and he's looking like
Speaker 3: I got to write out seven hundred million large And
Speaker 3: so did you say, quote this data Steve suggests some
Speaker 3: scope for a pickup and real consumer spending growth over
Speaker 3: the next what is it fifty one years late? I mean,
Speaker 3: did you pitch Steak Cohen an optimism on American economic
Speaker 3: growth so you could sign the great Sodo.
Speaker 4: I'm afraid I didn't give him specific advice on that
Speaker 4: signing transient economic Let's go.
Speaker 3: Let's go to the heart of it, which is whether
Speaker 3: it's one Soto or any other sports type or business planning.
Speaker 3: It's based on animal spirit. Do you see nominal GDP
Speaker 3: falling down to some distress level?
Speaker 4: Not at this point.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 4: I think the momentum is quite solid in the economy
Speaker 4: right now. You know, there may be some headwinds next year,
Speaker 4: depending on how much tariffs are put in place, how
Speaker 4: much immigration restrictions are put in place, But as of
Speaker 4: right now, the momentum in the economy is quite strong.
Speaker 5: Hey, Dean, did you and your team when you woke
Speaker 5: up the day after the election and we saw we
Speaker 5: have President Trump coming back to the White House. We
Speaker 5: now have a pretty solid red wave, I guess in
Speaker 5: the House in the Senate, did that change your economic
Speaker 5: outlook for twenty twenty five at all?
Speaker 4: I think the main the main things that I'm concerned
Speaker 4: about is the magnitude of the tariffs and the immigration restrictions,
Speaker 4: Because you know tariffs do you know? Virtually any economist
Speaker 4: will tell you tariffs will lead to price increases and
Speaker 4: slower growth. So we're just gonna have to wait and
Speaker 4: see how much those are put in place. Immigration restrictions
Speaker 4: also mean slower growth in the labor supply, and that
Speaker 4: means either job growth is going to be slower, or
Speaker 4: it means that the labor market is going to tighten
Speaker 4: much faster than it has been. So those are those
Speaker 4: are the things that I'm concerned about looking forward.
Speaker 5: So given that backdrop, what do you think your Federal
Speaker 5: Reserve is going to do here in this December meeting
Speaker 5: and then maybe that in that first half of next year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we think that the Fed will cut next
Speaker 4: week unless you know the CPI and pp numbers point.
Speaker 4: PI numbers point to a really ugly core PC reading
Speaker 4: for November. But if that's sort of in line with
Speaker 4: where it's been that, I think the Fed does plan
Speaker 4: to cut him and they will do so. But we
Speaker 4: also think they're going to switch to a quarterly pace
Speaker 4: of great cuts starting in Q one, So they'll they'll
Speaker 4: slow down the pace of cuts and just watch to
Speaker 4: see what happens on the inflation front.
Speaker 3: Dean, the macky economics is a Stanford economics in the
Speaker 3: whole heart of Boskin, Taylor, the other giants of Stanford,
Speaker 3: even over in the financial side with Bill Sharp is
Speaker 3: get out of the way and let us grow. So
Speaker 3: if President elect Trump says to Steve Cohen as he's
Speaker 3: trying to get seasoned tickets because of one Soto. If
Speaker 3: President elect Trump says get out of the way and
Speaker 3: let the economy grow, does that ring true to you
Speaker 3: that that could happen.
Speaker 4: I think the economy is growing quite solidly right now
Speaker 4: and that will continue absent any shocks. So I think that,
Speaker 4: you know, the momentum is quite solid. Consumers have strong
Speaker 4: wage and salary income growth, correct, profits are very strong.
Speaker 4: So the setup is quite nice for continued growth as
Speaker 4: long as policy in a sense doesn't interfere with it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I got to go pe Peterson on you,
Speaker 3: the late great p Peterson, Dan Mackett, whether it's charge
Speaker 3: card debt or the fiscal debt of the nation. Are
Speaker 3: we grossing up our debt? While? Will you enjoy the
Speaker 3: Macki boom?
Speaker 4: I mean, there is a long run fiscal issue in
Speaker 4: the US. You know, we're running deficits that are too
Speaker 4: high in general, and they don't seem to be coming
Speaker 4: down in a significant way, and it doesn't seem to
Speaker 4: be a major part of the agenda for either party
Speaker 4: at this point. So I do think that's that's a
Speaker 4: long run issue. It doesn't seem to be a short
Speaker 4: term issue that's preventing investors from buying treasuries at this point,
Speaker 4: you know, So that will be the true test is
Speaker 4: when investors say we think the debt is too high
Speaker 4: right now, they're not saying that the ten year treasure
Speaker 4: yield is four point one five or something like that,
Speaker 4: and so it's not as though investors are bulking at
Speaker 4: buying treasuries.
Speaker 5: Dean, what's your view of this underlying US consumer here?
Speaker 6: We're kind of right in the holiday period.
Speaker 5: People are buying out there, buying gifts for Christmas and
Speaker 5: han Aga and all the other things.
Speaker 6: How do you view the consumer these days?
Speaker 4: I think the consumer is in quite solid shape. Wage
Speaker 4: and silar income is growing something like five and a
Speaker 4: half percent, and inflation, headline inflation has fallen down to you,
Speaker 4: on a short term basis under two percent. So real
Speaker 4: income growth, labor income growth is quite strong at this point. Plus,
Speaker 4: households are the household wealth to income right now is
Speaker 4: higher than it's been at any point in the seventy
Speaker 4: years prior to COVID, So households are wealthier than they've
Speaker 4: ever been on average, and they have strong income growth.
Speaker 4: So that's why I think consumer spending has been strong
Speaker 4: and will continue to be so going forward.
Speaker 3: Dean, when you're at the stadium, because you have to
Speaker 3: go to ten games a year to keep your job,
Speaker 3: do you sit in the Clover seats? Oberman sits down
Speaker 3: there the clover you know, the Clover Club seats right
Speaker 3: down like row one, roll Ford? Is that where you sit?
Speaker 4: I have sight in those seats at times. They are very,
Speaker 4: very nice seats.
Speaker 3: I love it, Dan Mackie, thank you so much. I
Speaker 3: love busting his juts. It is great. May I point out,
Speaker 3: folks that doctor Mackie has bulletproof academics from his time
Speaker 3: in Barclays. Mister Cohen saw that and said, bring that
Speaker 3: lad over to point seven to two. And he's delivered
Speaker 3: the goods for mister Cohen and giving great macroeconomic analysis
Speaker 3: tied into the policies of America. We hope to see
Speaker 3: mister Mackie at the Clover Club seats.
Speaker 2: Yes, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Pod cat Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter
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Speaker 3: Last time she was in I learned a lot plain
Speaker 3: and example, Monica Gerer joins US executive director, had a
Speaker 3: US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth and there's like eighteen
Speaker 3: things to talk about here. But I'm sorry, I going
Speaker 3: to rip up the script. Greg Vllier over at AGF
Speaker 3: Toronto comes out today with a blistering summary of what
Speaker 3: we all know. But I guess we're ignoring two trillion
Speaker 3: dollar budget deficit. How will that impinge on policy? How?
Speaker 3: What is the constraint of a budget deficit that is
Speaker 3: up two hundred and forty two billion more than in
Speaker 3: the same period last year.
Speaker 6: What's a constraint?
Speaker 7: Means that they're going to have to actually deal with it.
Speaker 7: And I think what's interesting about this incoming administration and
Speaker 7: Congress is that there's a lot of commitment to actually
Speaker 7: getting a budget through. We've been living on continued resolutions
Speaker 7: over the last year or longer, and essentially with the
Speaker 7: reconsideration of taxes as well as tariff revenues, et cetera,
Speaker 7: they're going to have to actually come up with a
Speaker 7: full budget package that is going to have to take
Speaker 7: the deficit into consideration. So the constraint is how much
Speaker 7: do we add to the deficit and how do we
Speaker 7: make up for those losses?
Speaker 3: Do you see any ability to go forget about cutting
Speaker 3: deficits and all the you know, the people that want
Speaker 3: to do that. Everybody's just not going to happen. Can
Speaker 3: we flat line?
Speaker 7: Can we flatline? Most?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 7: I would say if you're thinking about I'm thinking about
Speaker 7: what flatline means right, if we're thinking about faith in
Speaker 7: US treasuries and the global marketplace, I don't think we're
Speaker 7: at a critical tipping point yet. They have to consider
Speaker 7: the impacts of deportation and immigration policies, as well as
Speaker 7: how griffs could impact inflation, and then package that in
Speaker 7: with tax cuts and how they're going to negotiate spending
Speaker 7: cuts as well. And then that's going to get you
Speaker 7: to a place of you know, are we are we
Speaker 7: in the in the red or the black? And either
Speaker 7: any way you shake it, we're going to add. It's
Speaker 7: just how much. And even if you're looking at say
Speaker 7: a trillion dollar deficit over edition over ten years, that
Speaker 7: would be on the on the bright side and the glow.
Speaker 7: It's about essentially making sure productivity is strong as well
Speaker 7: as managed management of inflation and that's going to keep
Speaker 7: global investors right, still turning to the to the dollar,
Speaker 7: still turning to US treasuries. So, yes, taxes are important,
Speaker 7: deficits are important, but it's about sort of the management
Speaker 7: and relationship to productivity and inflation. And I think that
Speaker 7: those three prongs sometimes get missed in the in the
Speaker 7: soup of the discussion.
Speaker 5: You're head of US policy of Morgan standingly, wealvalth management.
Speaker 5: What's the first one hundred days going to look like
Speaker 5: this new administration? I mean he's gonna have of the House,
Speaker 5: the Senate, Yes, very narrow majorities, but still majorities. What
Speaker 5: can this administration get done to first hundred days?
Speaker 7: You think, if you're looking at the executive branch, there's
Speaker 7: a lot that they can do.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 7: Immigration is day one that's going to be a real change.
Speaker 7: We have to think about how much that looks like
Speaker 7: if you're thinking annually about three hundred thousand people get
Speaker 7: deported from the US already, If they're looking at a
Speaker 7: four hundred thousand number is what they've most recently cited,
Speaker 7: that could be an addition, that could be net one
Speaker 7: hundred thousand more. So those are very different outcomes when
Speaker 7: we're thinking about near term growth and growth prospects. The
Speaker 7: other thing they're going to focus on with day one
Speaker 7: is tariffs and especially the way that we negotiate and
Speaker 7: reconsider our relationship with Mexico. So one of the things
Speaker 7: I've heard from DHS is it relates to immigration, is
Speaker 7: that they're going to be focusing on Central Americans, not
Speaker 7: necessarily Mexicans, because we need them for mining commodities, rare minerals,
Speaker 7: et cetera. So this is going to be a dynamic
Speaker 7: first one hundred days. The Doge effect that people talked about,
Speaker 7: I think that's much later, because they're gonna use those
Speaker 7: first hundred days to come up with proposals before Congress
Speaker 7: actually considers them, and then we're gonna see the first
Speaker 7: writings on the wall of what those tax and budget
Speaker 7: conversations look like. So I think first hundred days is
Speaker 7: really about creating right the path forward and that map
Speaker 7: that we're going to follow through twenty twenty six and
Speaker 7: twenty twenty seventh.
Speaker 5: Are we gonna have a messy confirmation process for some
Speaker 5: of these appointees and that could derail maybe some of
Speaker 5: these policy.
Speaker 7: I think they're getting ahead of it right. This is
Speaker 7: the sort of the quickest we've seen in recent history
Speaker 7: of folks being put forward and then dropping out of
Speaker 7: contention for secretary positions. This is of record rates of
Speaker 7: turnover before the administration even.
Speaker 1: Gets into office.
Speaker 7: The critical thing here is that Trump is putting forth
Speaker 7: his personal picks and then responding to the limits that
Speaker 7: are being presented to him in Congress. So the Senator
Speaker 7: John Thune as majority leader is incredibly important in the Senate,
Speaker 7: and it's essentially creating this barrier right to some of
Speaker 7: the more outlier appointees. And he's saying, if you don't
Speaker 7: get you know, if they don't necessarily meet basic standard
Speaker 7: of background education understanding, we're not going to confirm them.
Speaker 7: And the fact that he was actually voted on right
Speaker 7: by GOP members right to become the Senate majority leader,
Speaker 7: that means that folks are interested in maintaining a certain
Speaker 7: amount of independence and legislative authority in the Senate.
Speaker 3: And the time we've got left, I've got to go
Speaker 3: to your earned experience. On the great City of New York.
Speaker 3: We just had a huge crime that's the focus worldwide,
Speaker 3: but far more of that is just running the city
Speaker 3: into twenty twenty five. When you look at the concerns
Speaker 3: of our fiscal policy, here, what's at the top of
Speaker 3: the list. For Monica guer.
Speaker 7: We're thinking about fiscal policy, the first thing that comes
Speaker 7: to mind is, you know, management of the broader agencies
Speaker 7: when you're talking about, you know, the most recent crime.
Speaker 7: I think that that's top of mind for a lot
Speaker 7: of folks and making sure that the city is safe.
Speaker 7: Now from a fiscal perspective, top news headline right is
Speaker 7: congestion pricing right? And are they going to be able
Speaker 7: to bring in enough revenue? Are they going to be
Speaker 7: able to actually implement it? On jan five? So we're
Speaker 7: going to be watching that. I think I think that
Speaker 7: they can do it right.
Speaker 3: There's engineers they're modeling off Stockholm in London. Our taxicabs
Speaker 3: are third world compared to London. Isn't there like a
Speaker 3: bargaineer of alternative transportation that we're supposed to have like
Speaker 3: Stockholm and like London as we implement this good congestion text.
Speaker 7: So that's the that's the thing is that you need
Speaker 7: to for the way we're thinking about the MTA and
Speaker 7: the way the state is focusing on is that we
Speaker 7: need to get the congestion tax first, get those revenues
Speaker 7: in and then they can secure that against debt. That
Speaker 7: canal build out and help.
Speaker 3: You said, with all your experience, is that doable?
Speaker 7: I think it is. I do think it's doable. I
Speaker 7: think that the I don't know the ins and outs
Speaker 7: of the implementation for taxis maybe what they're going to
Speaker 7: do is have everybody download an app. I don't know
Speaker 7: what that looks like. That's the easiest thing I can
Speaker 7: think of. I don't want to speak on behalf of
Speaker 7: the city and the statements, but I do think that
Speaker 7: there are ways to get there. And if you bring
Speaker 7: in five hundred mili is the latest, uh, you know,
Speaker 7: guestimate of what they could bring in, that is worthwhile
Speaker 7: considering the losses that the MTA has experienced.
Speaker 6: Were we on subway?
Speaker 5: I mean to me, I'm a subway writer every single
Speaker 5: day for forty five years. I think it's the greatest
Speaker 5: mode of transportation in the world. I think minority there.
Speaker 5: How is the MTA these days just broadly.
Speaker 7: Defined probably defined. I think they're still struggling with some
Speaker 7: of those you know, COVID losses, and they're going to
Speaker 7: be looking to essentially patch patch that revenue. They were
Speaker 7: already in a budget in balance prior to COVID. It
Speaker 7: just made it worse, and so something like congestin rising
Speaker 7: might be necessary to essentially keep service at a level
Speaker 7: that's tenable and then go beyond. So if they're able
Speaker 7: to actually use that revenue to secure billions in debt,
Speaker 7: then you have a robust capital plan. But they have
Speaker 7: to find that revenue, and I think that that could
Speaker 7: come from congestin pricing.
Speaker 3: Thank you for that, audible, Monica Guerrez with Morgan Stanley
Speaker 3: on US policy. We should mention also that shield the
Speaker 3: position of Director of Capital Budgement and Budget and Economic
Speaker 3: Development for the City of New York, among other dudies.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
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Speaker 2: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Joining us right now, Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow of the
Speaker 3: Atlantic Council, And what's great as we look at the
Speaker 3: complete total turmoil of the Eastern mediterrane and I don't
Speaker 3: even know where to start him and transfixed by it
Speaker 3: for five days, six days, we've had some great I guess,
Speaker 3: including yesterday. Ellen Wald is definitive for one volume on
Speaker 3: the Saudi Royalty. Saudi is just absolutely definitive, and of
Speaker 3: course on oil and that Ellen I get out the
Speaker 3: distance from Latakia and the Russian port, and I get
Speaker 3: over to Tripoli and to brook In, Libya, and the
Speaker 3: Russians have to move eight hundred miles to reset up
Speaker 3: their bases. Perhaps what is the significance of that to
Speaker 3: the Arab world that Russia, ally of the former Syria
Speaker 3: has to move. What's the so what of that?
Speaker 8: I think that so what is that there is an
Speaker 8: opportunity here to fill a small power vacuum that had
Speaker 8: been filled by Iran and Russia. When Iran turned around
Speaker 8: that oil tanker just as Assad, news that Asad had
Speaker 8: left Syria hit, that was a sign that they are
Speaker 8: not supporting this regime anymore. Russia retreating another sign. I
Speaker 8: think that that it's both a lack of resources I
Speaker 8: think on the part of Russia and also a strategic
Speaker 8: decision here. And that says to me that there is
Speaker 8: an opportunity here for Saudi Arabia and also the Gulf
Speaker 8: States to potentially move in. They've got money, they've got fueled,
Speaker 8: they've got aid, and they could be the definitive, you know,
Speaker 8: the definitive force in the new Syria, and this is
Speaker 8: an opportunity they may not want to let pass them
Speaker 8: by drama.
Speaker 3: For some of this is Peter O'Toole is t E.
Speaker 3: Lawrence going mental over Sykes Pico and the partition of Syria.
Speaker 3: Five six, eight years later from that you have the
Speaker 3: true partition of Syria. Do you just assume, maybe led
Speaker 3: by the Saudis, we're going to have a new partition
Speaker 3: of Syria.
Speaker 9: That's an interesting thought.
Speaker 8: I think one of the things that we've learned is
Speaker 8: that despite the fact that all of these borders and
Speaker 8: all of these lines were drawn, you know, by the British.
Speaker 8: Although although the Sykes Pico Agreement, everyone forgets that there
Speaker 8: was actually the Sykes Pico Sizanov Agreement and that Russia
Speaker 8: was originally part of it. So Russia's got a hand
Speaker 8: in that too. Is that these lines are actually here
Speaker 8: to stay. As arbitrary and you know, bizarre they may
Speaker 8: have been, they're here to stay, and so I don't
Speaker 8: think that Syria is going to be divided or any any.
Speaker 9: Different or the borders will look all that different.
Speaker 8: I do think that the reason Israeli encroachment in the
Speaker 8: north of Israel to kind of extend their buffer there
Speaker 8: is interesting and could be a source of tension in
Speaker 8: the future. But I do think that Lebanon is going
Speaker 8: to remain Lebanon and Syria will remain Syria. What it
Speaker 8: looks like and how strong of a state it is
Speaker 8: remains to be seen.
Speaker 6: Ellen, I don't know.
Speaker 5: I'm pretty surprised that with all the turmoil we've seen
Speaker 5: in the Middle East over the last year and now
Speaker 5: most recently with Syria, I still got bread cruded like
Speaker 5: seventy one seventy two dollars a barrel.
Speaker 6: I'm surprised it's not a lot higher. Should I be
Speaker 6: surprised or what's going on there?
Speaker 8: Well, what's interesting is that, yes, it's an important and
Speaker 8: a major event in the Middle East and definitely injects
Speaker 8: more instability into the region. Despite the fact that Asad
Speaker 8: Assad's rule was not what it once was and that
Speaker 8: he was a very brutal dictator, he was still a
Speaker 8: fairly stabilizing force. At the same time, though Syria's not
Speaker 8: a major oil producer, it had enough oil and natural
Speaker 8: gas to satisfy.
Speaker 9: Its own needs, and they.
Speaker 8: Exported a little bit, but it's not a major producer.
Speaker 9: And I do think that at this.
Speaker 8: Point, really what we're seeing is that analysts are much
Speaker 8: more concerned with, you know, troubling economic forecasts and also
Speaker 8: these forecasts that supply is set to grow in twenty
Speaker 8: twenty five, in this potential for a supply an oversupply,
Speaker 8: and they're much more focused on that than they are with,
Speaker 8: you know, with what's going on in Syria as a
Speaker 8: destabilizer for the oil market.
Speaker 3: You know, Ellen, I playoff serj veker Lenko's work at
Speaker 3: Carnegie and Dolmen for International Peace, and the basic idea
Speaker 3: here is we knew OPEC plus, which I guess is
Speaker 3: Rio talk to Moscow is that dead.
Speaker 9: Okay plus is not dead. Okay plus seems very much alive.
Speaker 8: The fact that they were able to put together such
Speaker 8: a comprehensive agreement and a complicated one as well, to
Speaker 8: stave off these planned production increases, I think shows that
Speaker 8: there's still a lot of negotiation going on. There's still
Speaker 8: a lot of open lines of communication, and opek plus
Speaker 8: is still alive and kicking. Although for every month that
Speaker 8: they push off the plant increases, the pressure is going
Speaker 8: to grow to eventually put that oil back on the market.
Speaker 5: Ellen, I'm a big fan of the TV series Landman
Speaker 5: on Paramount Plus, So I feel like I'm an expert
Speaker 5: now in the US oil and gas industry. What are
Speaker 5: our domestic folks, our friends down in Texas, in Louisiana
Speaker 5: and Oklahoma? What are they are they still pumping the
Speaker 5: maximum amount of oil they can?
Speaker 6: What are they doing down there?
Speaker 8: So right now we're seeing US production at some of
Speaker 8: its highest levels ever.
Speaker 9: I mean, we are currently the largest oil producer in
Speaker 9: the world.
Speaker 8: The question is how long is that going to be sustained,
Speaker 8: particularly now that the region down there is dominated by
Speaker 8: large international oil players. We're talking Chevron and Exon are
Speaker 8: are really dominating now that they have bought out some
Speaker 8: of the small and larger players in the fracking areas.
Speaker 8: So I think that their concerns. For example, Chevron says
Speaker 8: they want to focus on free cash flow, not production,
Speaker 8: not drilling, and I do think that we will see
Speaker 8: we are likely to see a pullback in some respects,
Speaker 8: although there's still going to be you know, strong production
Speaker 8: coming from there. I know some concerns have been voiced
Speaker 8: about the fact that, you know, the easy oil in
Speaker 8: the Permian is just about used up. But you know
Speaker 8: that doesn't mean that there's no oil left and that
Speaker 8: we're not going to be producing from there for.
Speaker 9: A long time.
Speaker 3: So is there a glutt or warl.
Speaker 8: I don't think we're quite in glut stage, but there's
Speaker 8: the potential to get there.
Speaker 9: We're in a pre glut phase.
Speaker 5: I think what's been great in just in the last again,
Speaker 5: in the last ten years, the US going from a
Speaker 5: net importer.
Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly. Who talks about peak oil?
Speaker 3: I talked to Ellen Walder like twenty years ago, and
Speaker 3: I'm going peek ohil pekah pieces shut.
Speaker 6: Up, Tom, Yeah, watch law man, that's Ellen.
Speaker 3: When do we get a new book? When do we
Speaker 3: get an update?
Speaker 9: Come on, when do we get a new book? That's
Speaker 9: a good question. Not not not yet.
Speaker 8: But we've definitely got some interesting other other things in
Speaker 8: the in the you know, in fire right now.
Speaker 3: Very cool, Ellen, Netflix is looking for that. Ellen wald
Speaker 3: with us, your senior fellow Atlantic console her one volume.
Speaker 3: Saudi really can't say. Oh, thank you, ay Saudi Inc.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry I did it for the Netflix series.
Speaker 2: They changed it.
Speaker 6: From Saudi in shorter Saudi. Yep, exactly right.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube. And oh, he's on
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal the day.
Speaker 3: Look at the front pages. It is the Lisa Matteo Hour.
Speaker 6: Lisa, what are you all right?
Speaker 1: We gotta go to Juan Soto and the Mets.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 10: Thank you to Ari for pointing this article out, big
Speaker 10: shout out there. So, yes, the Mets offer the most
Speaker 10: money for Juan Soto right outpitting the Yankees by about
Speaker 10: five million.
Speaker 1: But really it could have been than that. No, it
Speaker 1: could have been more than that.
Speaker 10: See it could be the perk of a suite for
Speaker 10: his family. That could have been the game changer, because
Speaker 10: the post is saying that Mets over Steve Cohen, he
Speaker 10: gave that green light for Sodo and his family to
Speaker 10: get cid he field for his family. The part of
Speaker 10: the deal the sweet. Okay, that's what he wanted. He
Speaker 10: wanted this sweep. The Yankees wouldn't give it to him.
Speaker 3: See like above thirty.
Speaker 1: Es like sixteen tickets.
Speaker 3: This is sweet in the railing and they serve food.
Speaker 10: The fancy this anywhere at City Field from eight from
Speaker 10: about thirty two hundred to about thirteen thousand middle Coll's
Speaker 10: hunting on the game.
Speaker 3: He runs the place.
Speaker 6: Okay, Well, here's the thing. I mean.
Speaker 5: The Yankees don't give sweets to the Derek Jeter, h
Speaker 5: Aaron Joe. They pay for it now, discounted rates pay
Speaker 5: for it. So they didn't want to create this precedent,
Speaker 5: I guess.
Speaker 10: So yeah, they're willing to do the discounted rate. But
Speaker 10: you know he said, no, I want it as part
Speaker 10: of my deal.
Speaker 6: Yes, exactly.
Speaker 3: The only question to me is it towards home plate
Speaker 3: from Scott Haven's uh suet or is it out farther
Speaker 3: down third baseline.
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's good, that's a good I don't know exactly
Speaker 10: where it is. But any kind of sweet is nice. Yes, next,
Speaker 10: but it is it's pretty price. But the Yankees eight
Speaker 10: to twenty thousand, that's sweets.
Speaker 6: Are all sold. I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: About the Mets. Maybe now they will there you go, yes,
Speaker 1: good point. Okay.
Speaker 10: This is from the Wall Street Journal to two most
Speaker 10: dreaded words when you get a text is when someone
Speaker 10: texts you call me, Oh boy?
Speaker 1: Does that annoy you?
Speaker 10: Like you don't know the urgency, you don't know how
Speaker 10: important it is.
Speaker 1: So that's to say that it's all over social media.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 1: The whole call me thing.
Speaker 10: I get it because my son texts me call me,
Speaker 10: and I'm has, I'm going on my phone and like
Speaker 10: something's wrong and he wants to know where the peanut
Speaker 10: butter is, you know. So it's like it doesn't it
Speaker 10: doesn't work. So they're saying you need to change up
Speaker 10: the text. Okay, you say, please call me, no rush
Speaker 10: what you do? Okay, please call me when you can, okay.
Speaker 6: Because nobody calls anymore.
Speaker 1: Well, it takes a few extra taps. People of the thumbs,
Speaker 1: come on, just put the extra worring.
Speaker 3: It's amazing how the behavior has changed.
Speaker 5: It's absolutely Remember back in the day, when would you
Speaker 5: call your parents Sunday Sunday like your.
Speaker 1: School yellege, I would on Sundays and they.
Speaker 5: Had rates and lower rates like at nighttime on a
Speaker 5: Sunday night to call it anyway. So I even even
Speaker 5: now on Sundays, I try to reach out to the
Speaker 5: kids across the globe.
Speaker 1: Oh you do, even though they didn't call you for
Speaker 1: your birthday?
Speaker 5: Yes, exactly, yeah, exactly, daughter.
Speaker 3: I might bowling the apple here up twenty six percent
Speaker 3: this year. I mean, we're all. I mean, I don't
Speaker 3: know what percentage of our phones are Apple, but our
Speaker 3: behaviors really changed.
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, it's really really strange.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of people texting.
Speaker 10: They also say that the younger people complaining because they're
Speaker 10: getting those call me texts from their parents who don't
Speaker 10: realize the text etiquette, and they're.
Speaker 1: Saying, Mom, you can't just text call me like, you
Speaker 1: have to tell you whatever I want to. There you go, there,
Speaker 1: you come in charge.
Speaker 6: You work for me. This is like doctor Phil.
Speaker 3: Yes, trauma.
Speaker 1: Stirn up some controversy. Okay, global ad sales.
Speaker 10: They're actually set to top one trillion dollars in twenty
Speaker 10: twenty four thanks to online advertising sites like Alphabetz, Google,
Speaker 10: Meta platforms, Amazon. This is a report from Buyer Group
Speaker 10: Group m SO, Google, Meta, Amazon share. Total globe global
Speaker 10: ad revenue now at forty one percent. But there's a
Speaker 10: reason for the boost in sales, and it's not because
Speaker 10: of political advertising.
Speaker 7: That wasn't.
Speaker 10: The whole thing behind the boost is because of like
Speaker 10: the Paris Olympics, that was a big boost for it.
Speaker 1: Those ads supported.
Speaker 10: Tiers where people are paying more to see the ads.
Speaker 10: That's another thing, because they want to save a few bucks,
Speaker 10: so they'll pay more to have to see the ads.
Speaker 10: And also you have streaming services Netflix, Comcast, Peacock. They're
Speaker 10: also good news because you had comcasters showed the Olympics
Speaker 10: on broadcast TV but also cable and then also on
Speaker 10: on Peacock as well.
Speaker 1: So global ad sales yep.
Speaker 5: Topic one and again the number that you mentioned, Lisa,
Speaker 5: the digital players, Google, Meta, Amazon, digital advertising, so they're
Speaker 5: totally share advertising years.
Speaker 3: Why should this trend stop?
Speaker 5: I don't think it will stop because actually, if you're
Speaker 5: an advertiser, it's never been better to advertise now because
Speaker 5: you have really.
Speaker 6: Good solutions for you.
Speaker 5: It's instead of buying an ad on a broadcast network
Speaker 5: which you have no idea who you're reaching, if it's
Speaker 5: your demo or not. Now with these digital advertising platforms Google, Google, Meta, Amazon, YouTube.
Speaker 6: All that kind of stuff.
Speaker 5: You have much better information about who your audience is.
Speaker 5: It's targetting better, it's more valuable to the advertisers.
Speaker 6: And they're allocating more and more money.
Speaker 5: So it's and we saw yesterday, Tom, you were out
Speaker 5: of yesterday omnicomp, big ad agency buying into public group.
Speaker 3: Two dinosaurs mating.
Speaker 6: Yep, exactly right.
Speaker 3: I just what if I go when I try to
Speaker 3: order something, and I've got to go because you go
Speaker 3: to see who Steve Cohen's buying next, And about two
Speaker 3: hours later I get an email from the people, did
Speaker 3: you forget something?
Speaker 2: Yep?
Speaker 6: That's sort of like weird it is. Do you have
Speaker 6: anything else?
Speaker 3: In fifty seconds?
Speaker 1: Yes?
Speaker 10: In fifty seconds? Is it for the gen z ers
Speaker 10: I know you have in your household? Okay, gen Z
Speaker 10: twelve to twenty seven, that's the age.
Speaker 3: That's the age.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's the age.
Speaker 10: They're becoming gen G which is for giving.
Speaker 1: They're very giving. That's what this.
Speaker 10: I knew this was.
Speaker 1: They're very giving. Apparently this in the financial times.
Speaker 10: Here's the reason why, because they're going to be the
Speaker 10: recipients of what financial I just call the Great Wealth Transfer. Okay,
Speaker 10: that's when the retiring boomers pass down the trillions of
Speaker 10: dollars do their assets over the next twenty years.
Speaker 5: And here's a great lead sentence in this Financial Times
Speaker 5: article by Mariyan and Willingham. Generation Z has been raised
Speaker 5: on a cocktail of climate panic, internet activism and viral celebrity.
Speaker 1: And that's why they want to give back.
Speaker 3: Can we just get one of them to read a
Speaker 3: book cover to cover.
Speaker 6: Yeah, they don't read, but they're giving.
Speaker 3: They're giving. We're giving to Lisa Matteo. Thank you so
Speaker 3: much the newspapers.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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Speaker 4: I