1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 3 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto 4 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 3: This is an honor right now. Dan Matthew joins US 7 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 3: now chief Economist atwo point seven to two Steve Cohen 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 3: shop and we're thrilling there and we can make jokes 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 3: about one Sodo and all that with the New York Mets, 10 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 3: except this is too important of a conversation. So you know, 11 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 3: you're sitting down with mister Cohen and he's looking like 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 3: I got to write out seven hundred million large And 13 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 3: so did you say, quote this data Steve suggests some 14 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 3: scope for a pickup and real consumer spending growth over 15 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 3: the next what is it fifty one years late? I mean, 16 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 3: did you pitch Steak Cohen an optimism on American economic 17 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 3: growth so you could sign the great Sodo. 18 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 4: I'm afraid I didn't give him specific advice on that 19 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 4: signing transient economic Let's go. 20 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 3: Let's go to the heart of it, which is whether 21 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 3: it's one Soto or any other sports type or business planning. 22 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 3: It's based on animal spirit. Do you see nominal GDP 23 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 3: falling down to some distress level? 24 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 4: Not at this point. 25 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: No. 26 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 4: I think the momentum is quite solid in the economy 27 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 4: right now. You know, there may be some headwinds next year, 28 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 4: depending on how much tariffs are put in place, how 29 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 4: much immigration restrictions are put in place, But as of 30 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 4: right now, the momentum in the economy is quite strong. 31 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 5: Hey, Dean, did you and your team when you woke 32 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 5: up the day after the election and we saw we 33 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 5: have President Trump coming back to the White House. We 34 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 5: now have a pretty solid red wave, I guess in 35 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 5: the House in the Senate, did that change your economic 36 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 5: outlook for twenty twenty five at all? 37 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 4: I think the main the main things that I'm concerned 38 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 4: about is the magnitude of the tariffs and the immigration restrictions, 39 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 4: Because you know tariffs do you know? Virtually any economist 40 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 4: will tell you tariffs will lead to price increases and 41 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 4: slower growth. So we're just gonna have to wait and 42 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:28,119 Speaker 4: see how much those are put in place. Immigration restrictions 43 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 4: also mean slower growth in the labor supply, and that 44 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 4: means either job growth is going to be slower, or 45 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 4: it means that the labor market is going to tighten 46 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 4: much faster than it has been. So those are those 47 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 4: are the things that I'm concerned about looking forward. 48 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 5: So given that backdrop, what do you think your Federal 49 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 5: Reserve is going to do here in this December meeting 50 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:51,399 Speaker 5: and then maybe that in that first half of next year. 51 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, so we think that the Fed will cut next 52 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 4: week unless you know the CPI and pp numbers point. 53 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 4: PI numbers point to a really ugly core PC reading 54 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 4: for November. But if that's sort of in line with 55 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 4: where it's been that, I think the Fed does plan 56 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 4: to cut him and they will do so. But we 57 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 4: also think they're going to switch to a quarterly pace 58 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,679 Speaker 4: of great cuts starting in Q one, So they'll they'll 59 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 4: slow down the pace of cuts and just watch to 60 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 4: see what happens on the inflation front. 61 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 3: Dean, the macky economics is a Stanford economics in the 62 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 3: whole heart of Boskin, Taylor, the other giants of Stanford, 63 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 3: even over in the financial side with Bill Sharp is 64 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 3: get out of the way and let us grow. So 65 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 3: if President elect Trump says to Steve Cohen as he's 66 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 3: trying to get seasoned tickets because of one Soto. If 67 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 3: President elect Trump says get out of the way and 68 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 3: let the economy grow, does that ring true to you 69 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 3: that that could happen. 70 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 4: I think the economy is growing quite solidly right now 71 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 4: and that will continue absent any shocks. So I think that, 72 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 4: you know, the momentum is quite solid. Consumers have strong 73 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 4: wage and salary income growth, correct, profits are very strong. 74 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 4: So the setup is quite nice for continued growth as 75 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 4: long as policy in a sense doesn't interfere with it. 76 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, but I got to go pe Peterson on you, 77 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 3: the late great p Peterson, Dan Mackett, whether it's charge 78 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 3: card debt or the fiscal debt of the nation. Are 79 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 3: we grossing up our debt? While? Will you enjoy the 80 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 3: Macki boom? 81 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 4: I mean, there is a long run fiscal issue in 82 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 4: the US. You know, we're running deficits that are too 83 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 4: high in general, and they don't seem to be coming 84 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 4: down in a significant way, and it doesn't seem to 85 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 4: be a major part of the agenda for either party 86 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 4: at this point. So I do think that's that's a 87 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 4: long run issue. It doesn't seem to be a short 88 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 4: term issue that's preventing investors from buying treasuries at this point, 89 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 4: you know, So that will be the true test is 90 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 4: when investors say we think the debt is too high 91 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 4: right now, they're not saying that the ten year treasure 92 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 4: yield is four point one five or something like that, 93 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 4: and so it's not as though investors are bulking at 94 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 4: buying treasuries. 95 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 5: Dean, what's your view of this underlying US consumer here? 96 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 6: We're kind of right in the holiday period. 97 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 5: People are buying out there, buying gifts for Christmas and 98 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 5: han Aga and all the other things. 99 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:22,559 Speaker 6: How do you view the consumer these days? 100 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 4: I think the consumer is in quite solid shape. Wage 101 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 4: and silar income is growing something like five and a 102 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 4: half percent, and inflation, headline inflation has fallen down to you, 103 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 4: on a short term basis under two percent. So real 104 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 4: income growth, labor income growth is quite strong at this point. Plus, 105 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 4: households are the household wealth to income right now is 106 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 4: higher than it's been at any point in the seventy 107 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 4: years prior to COVID, So households are wealthier than they've 108 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 4: ever been on average, and they have strong income growth. 109 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 4: So that's why I think consumer spending has been strong 110 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 4: and will continue to be so going forward. 111 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 3: Dean, when you're at the stadium, because you have to 112 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:03,679 Speaker 3: go to ten games a year to keep your job, 113 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 3: do you sit in the Clover seats? Oberman sits down 114 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 3: there the clover you know, the Clover Club seats right 115 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 3: down like row one, roll Ford? Is that where you sit? 116 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 4: I have sight in those seats at times. They are very, 117 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 4: very nice seats. 118 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 3: I love it, Dan Mackie, thank you so much. I 119 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 3: love busting his juts. It is great. May I point out, 120 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 3: folks that doctor Mackie has bulletproof academics from his time 121 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 3: in Barclays. Mister Cohen saw that and said, bring that 122 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 3: lad over to point seven to two. And he's delivered 123 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 3: the goods for mister Cohen and giving great macroeconomic analysis 124 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 3: tied into the policies of America. We hope to see 125 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,840 Speaker 3: mister Mackie at the Clover Club seats. 126 00:06:51,960 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 2: Yes, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Pod cat Catch 127 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 2: us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter 128 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 2: Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a 129 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 130 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 3: Last time she was in I learned a lot plain 131 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 3: and example, Monica Gerer joins US executive director, had a 132 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 3: US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth and there's like eighteen 133 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 3: things to talk about here. But I'm sorry, I going 134 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 3: to rip up the script. Greg Vllier over at AGF 135 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 3: Toronto comes out today with a blistering summary of what 136 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 3: we all know. But I guess we're ignoring two trillion 137 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 3: dollar budget deficit. How will that impinge on policy? How? 138 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 3: What is the constraint of a budget deficit that is 139 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 3: up two hundred and forty two billion more than in 140 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 3: the same period last year. 141 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 6: What's a constraint? 142 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 7: Means that they're going to have to actually deal with it. 143 00:07:56,000 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 7: And I think what's interesting about this incoming administration and 144 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 7: Congress is that there's a lot of commitment to actually 145 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 7: getting a budget through. We've been living on continued resolutions 146 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 7: over the last year or longer, and essentially with the 147 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 7: reconsideration of taxes as well as tariff revenues, et cetera, 148 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 7: they're going to have to actually come up with a 149 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 7: full budget package that is going to have to take 150 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 7: the deficit into consideration. So the constraint is how much 151 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 7: do we add to the deficit and how do we 152 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 7: make up for those losses? 153 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 3: Do you see any ability to go forget about cutting 154 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 3: deficits and all the you know, the people that want 155 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 3: to do that. Everybody's just not going to happen. Can 156 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 3: we flat line? 157 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 7: Can we flatline? Most? 158 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 3: No? 159 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 7: I would say if you're thinking about I'm thinking about 160 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 7: what flatline means right, if we're thinking about faith in 161 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 7: US treasuries and the global marketplace, I don't think we're 162 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 7: at a critical tipping point yet. They have to consider 163 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,559 Speaker 7: the impacts of deportation and immigration policies, as well as 164 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 7: how griffs could impact inflation, and then package that in 165 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 7: with tax cuts and how they're going to negotiate spending 166 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 7: cuts as well. And then that's going to get you 167 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 7: to a place of you know, are we are we 168 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 7: in the in the red or the black? And either 169 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:17,439 Speaker 7: any way you shake it, we're going to add. It's 170 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 7: just how much. And even if you're looking at say 171 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 7: a trillion dollar deficit over edition over ten years, that 172 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 7: would be on the on the bright side and the glow. 173 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 7: It's about essentially making sure productivity is strong as well 174 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 7: as managed management of inflation and that's going to keep 175 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 7: global investors right, still turning to the to the dollar, 176 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 7: still turning to US treasuries. So, yes, taxes are important, 177 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 7: deficits are important, but it's about sort of the management 178 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 7: and relationship to productivity and inflation. And I think that 179 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 7: those three prongs sometimes get missed in the in the 180 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 7: soup of the discussion. 181 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,559 Speaker 5: You're head of US policy of Morgan standingly, wealvalth management. 182 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 5: What's the first one hundred days going to look like 183 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 5: this new administration? I mean he's gonna have of the House, 184 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 5: the Senate, Yes, very narrow majorities, but still majorities. What 185 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 5: can this administration get done to first hundred days? 186 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 7: You think, if you're looking at the executive branch, there's 187 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 7: a lot that they can do. 188 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 3: Right. 189 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 7: Immigration is day one that's going to be a real change. 190 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 7: We have to think about how much that looks like 191 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 7: if you're thinking annually about three hundred thousand people get 192 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 7: deported from the US already, If they're looking at a 193 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 7: four hundred thousand number is what they've most recently cited, 194 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 7: that could be an addition, that could be net one 195 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 7: hundred thousand more. So those are very different outcomes when 196 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 7: we're thinking about near term growth and growth prospects. The 197 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 7: other thing they're going to focus on with day one 198 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 7: is tariffs and especially the way that we negotiate and 199 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 7: reconsider our relationship with Mexico. So one of the things 200 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 7: I've heard from DHS is it relates to immigration, is 201 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 7: that they're going to be focusing on Central Americans, not 202 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 7: necessarily Mexicans, because we need them for mining commodities, rare minerals, 203 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,839 Speaker 7: et cetera. So this is going to be a dynamic 204 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 7: first one hundred days. The Doge effect that people talked about, 205 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 7: I think that's much later, because they're gonna use those 206 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 7: first hundred days to come up with proposals before Congress 207 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 7: actually considers them, and then we're gonna see the first 208 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 7: writings on the wall of what those tax and budget 209 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 7: conversations look like. So I think first hundred days is 210 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 7: really about creating right the path forward and that map 211 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 7: that we're going to follow through twenty twenty six and 212 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 7: twenty twenty seventh. 213 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 5: Are we gonna have a messy confirmation process for some 214 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 5: of these appointees and that could derail maybe some of 215 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 5: these policy. 216 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:35,719 Speaker 7: I think they're getting ahead of it right. This is 217 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 7: the sort of the quickest we've seen in recent history 218 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 7: of folks being put forward and then dropping out of 219 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 7: contention for secretary positions. This is of record rates of 220 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 7: turnover before the administration even. 221 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: Gets into office. 222 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 7: The critical thing here is that Trump is putting forth 223 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 7: his personal picks and then responding to the limits that 224 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 7: are being presented to him in Congress. So the Senator 225 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 7: John Thune as majority leader is incredibly important in the Senate, 226 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 7: and it's essentially creating this barrier right to some of 227 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 7: the more outlier appointees. And he's saying, if you don't 228 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 7: get you know, if they don't necessarily meet basic standard 229 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 7: of background education understanding, we're not going to confirm them. 230 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 7: And the fact that he was actually voted on right 231 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 7: by GOP members right to become the Senate majority leader, 232 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 7: that means that folks are interested in maintaining a certain 233 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 7: amount of independence and legislative authority in the Senate. 234 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 3: And the time we've got left, I've got to go 235 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 3: to your earned experience. On the great City of New York. 236 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 3: We just had a huge crime that's the focus worldwide, 237 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 3: but far more of that is just running the city 238 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 3: into twenty twenty five. When you look at the concerns 239 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 3: of our fiscal policy, here, what's at the top of 240 00:12:58,040 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 3: the list. For Monica guer. 241 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 7: We're thinking about fiscal policy, the first thing that comes 242 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 7: to mind is, you know, management of the broader agencies 243 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 7: when you're talking about, you know, the most recent crime. 244 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 7: I think that that's top of mind for a lot 245 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 7: of folks and making sure that the city is safe. 246 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 7: Now from a fiscal perspective, top news headline right is 247 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 7: congestion pricing right? And are they going to be able 248 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 7: to bring in enough revenue? Are they going to be 249 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,439 Speaker 7: able to actually implement it? On jan five? So we're 250 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 7: going to be watching that. I think I think that 251 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 7: they can do it right. 252 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 3: There's engineers they're modeling off Stockholm in London. Our taxicabs 253 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 3: are third world compared to London. Isn't there like a 254 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 3: bargaineer of alternative transportation that we're supposed to have like 255 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 3: Stockholm and like London as we implement this good congestion text. 256 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 7: So that's the that's the thing is that you need 257 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 7: to for the way we're thinking about the MTA and 258 00:13:58,000 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 7: the way the state is focusing on is that we 259 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 7: need to get the congestion tax first, get those revenues 260 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 7: in and then they can secure that against debt. That 261 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 7: canal build out and help. 262 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 3: You said, with all your experience, is that doable? 263 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 7: I think it is. I do think it's doable. I 264 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 7: think that the I don't know the ins and outs 265 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 7: of the implementation for taxis maybe what they're going to 266 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 7: do is have everybody download an app. I don't know 267 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 7: what that looks like. That's the easiest thing I can 268 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 7: think of. I don't want to speak on behalf of 269 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 7: the city and the statements, but I do think that 270 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 7: there are ways to get there. And if you bring 271 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 7: in five hundred mili is the latest, uh, you know, 272 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 7: guestimate of what they could bring in, that is worthwhile 273 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 7: considering the losses that the MTA has experienced. 274 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 6: Were we on subway? 275 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 5: I mean to me, I'm a subway writer every single 276 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 5: day for forty five years. I think it's the greatest 277 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 5: mode of transportation in the world. I think minority there. 278 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 5: How is the MTA these days just broadly. 279 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 7: Defined probably defined. I think they're still struggling with some 280 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 7: of those you know, COVID losses, and they're going to 281 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 7: be looking to essentially patch patch that revenue. They were 282 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 7: already in a budget in balance prior to COVID. It 283 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 7: just made it worse, and so something like congestin rising 284 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 7: might be necessary to essentially keep service at a level 285 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 7: that's tenable and then go beyond. So if they're able 286 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 7: to actually use that revenue to secure billions in debt, 287 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 7: then you have a robust capital plan. But they have 288 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 7: to find that revenue, and I think that that could 289 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 7: come from congestin pricing. 290 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 3: Thank you for that, audible, Monica Guerrez with Morgan Stanley 291 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 3: on US policy. We should mention also that shield the 292 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 3: position of Director of Capital Budgement and Budget and Economic 293 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 3: Development for the City of New York, among other dudies. 294 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 295 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 296 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 297 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 298 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 2: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 299 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 3: Joining us right now, Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow of the 300 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 3: Atlantic Council, And what's great as we look at the 301 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 3: complete total turmoil of the Eastern mediterrane and I don't 302 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 3: even know where to start him and transfixed by it 303 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 3: for five days, six days, we've had some great I guess, 304 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 3: including yesterday. Ellen Wald is definitive for one volume on 305 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 3: the Saudi Royalty. Saudi is just absolutely definitive, and of 306 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 3: course on oil and that Ellen I get out the 307 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 3: distance from Latakia and the Russian port, and I get 308 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 3: over to Tripoli and to brook In, Libya, and the 309 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 3: Russians have to move eight hundred miles to reset up 310 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 3: their bases. Perhaps what is the significance of that to 311 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 3: the Arab world that Russia, ally of the former Syria 312 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 3: has to move. What's the so what of that? 313 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 8: I think that so what is that there is an 314 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 8: opportunity here to fill a small power vacuum that had 315 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 8: been filled by Iran and Russia. When Iran turned around 316 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 8: that oil tanker just as Assad, news that Asad had 317 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 8: left Syria hit, that was a sign that they are 318 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 8: not supporting this regime anymore. Russia retreating another sign. I 319 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 8: think that that it's both a lack of resources I 320 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 8: think on the part of Russia and also a strategic 321 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 8: decision here. And that says to me that there is 322 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 8: an opportunity here for Saudi Arabia and also the Gulf 323 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 8: States to potentially move in. They've got money, they've got fueled, 324 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 8: they've got aid, and they could be the definitive, you know, 325 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 8: the definitive force in the new Syria, and this is 326 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 8: an opportunity they may not want to let pass them 327 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 8: by drama. 328 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 3: For some of this is Peter O'Toole is t E. 329 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 3: Lawrence going mental over Sykes Pico and the partition of Syria. 330 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 3: Five six, eight years later from that you have the 331 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 3: true partition of Syria. Do you just assume, maybe led 332 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 3: by the Saudis, we're going to have a new partition 333 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 3: of Syria. 334 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 9: That's an interesting thought. 335 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 8: I think one of the things that we've learned is 336 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 8: that despite the fact that all of these borders and 337 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 8: all of these lines were drawn, you know, by the British. 338 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 8: Although although the Sykes Pico Agreement, everyone forgets that there 339 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 8: was actually the Sykes Pico Sizanov Agreement and that Russia 340 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 8: was originally part of it. So Russia's got a hand 341 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 8: in that too. Is that these lines are actually here 342 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 8: to stay. As arbitrary and you know, bizarre they may 343 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 8: have been, they're here to stay, and so I don't 344 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 8: think that Syria is going to be divided or any any. 345 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 9: Different or the borders will look all that different. 346 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 8: I do think that the reason Israeli encroachment in the 347 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 8: north of Israel to kind of extend their buffer there 348 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 8: is interesting and could be a source of tension in 349 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,239 Speaker 8: the future. But I do think that Lebanon is going 350 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 8: to remain Lebanon and Syria will remain Syria. What it 351 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 8: looks like and how strong of a state it is 352 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 8: remains to be seen. 353 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 6: Ellen, I don't know. 354 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 5: I'm pretty surprised that with all the turmoil we've seen 355 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 5: in the Middle East over the last year and now 356 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 5: most recently with Syria, I still got bread cruded like 357 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 5: seventy one seventy two dollars a barrel. 358 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 6: I'm surprised it's not a lot higher. Should I be 359 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 6: surprised or what's going on there? 360 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,919 Speaker 8: Well, what's interesting is that, yes, it's an important and 361 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 8: a major event in the Middle East and definitely injects 362 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 8: more instability into the region. Despite the fact that Asad 363 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 8: Assad's rule was not what it once was and that 364 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 8: he was a very brutal dictator, he was still a 365 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 8: fairly stabilizing force. At the same time, though Syria's not 366 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 8: a major oil producer, it had enough oil and natural 367 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 8: gas to satisfy. 368 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 9: Its own needs, and they. 369 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 8: Exported a little bit, but it's not a major producer. 370 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 9: And I do think that at this. 371 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 8: Point, really what we're seeing is that analysts are much 372 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 8: more concerned with, you know, troubling economic forecasts and also 373 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 8: these forecasts that supply is set to grow in twenty 374 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 8: twenty five, in this potential for a supply an oversupply, 375 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 8: and they're much more focused on that than they are with, 376 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 8: you know, with what's going on in Syria as a 377 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 8: destabilizer for the oil market. 378 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 3: You know, Ellen, I playoff serj veker Lenko's work at 379 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,879 Speaker 3: Carnegie and Dolmen for International Peace, and the basic idea 380 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 3: here is we knew OPEC plus, which I guess is 381 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 3: Rio talk to Moscow is that dead. 382 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 9: Okay plus is not dead. Okay plus seems very much alive. 383 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 8: The fact that they were able to put together such 384 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 8: a comprehensive agreement and a complicated one as well, to 385 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 8: stave off these planned production increases, I think shows that 386 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 8: there's still a lot of negotiation going on. There's still 387 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 8: a lot of open lines of communication, and opek plus 388 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 8: is still alive and kicking. Although for every month that 389 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,679 Speaker 8: they push off the plant increases, the pressure is going 390 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,880 Speaker 8: to grow to eventually put that oil back on the market. 391 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 5: Ellen, I'm a big fan of the TV series Landman 392 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 5: on Paramount Plus, So I feel like I'm an expert 393 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 5: now in the US oil and gas industry. What are 394 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 5: our domestic folks, our friends down in Texas, in Louisiana 395 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,719 Speaker 5: and Oklahoma? What are they are they still pumping the 396 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 5: maximum amount of oil they can? 397 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 6: What are they doing down there? 398 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 8: So right now we're seeing US production at some of 399 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 8: its highest levels ever. 400 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 9: I mean, we are currently the largest oil producer in 401 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 9: the world. 402 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 8: The question is how long is that going to be sustained, 403 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 8: particularly now that the region down there is dominated by 404 00:21:55,880 --> 00:22:00,360 Speaker 8: large international oil players. We're talking Chevron and Exon are 405 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,119 Speaker 8: are really dominating now that they have bought out some 406 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 8: of the small and larger players in the fracking areas. 407 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 8: So I think that their concerns. For example, Chevron says 408 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 8: they want to focus on free cash flow, not production, 409 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 8: not drilling, and I do think that we will see 410 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 8: we are likely to see a pullback in some respects, 411 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 8: although there's still going to be you know, strong production 412 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 8: coming from there. I know some concerns have been voiced 413 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 8: about the fact that, you know, the easy oil in 414 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,719 Speaker 8: the Permian is just about used up. But you know 415 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 8: that doesn't mean that there's no oil left and that 416 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 8: we're not going to be producing from there for. 417 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 9: A long time. 418 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 3: So is there a glutt or warl. 419 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 8: I don't think we're quite in glut stage, but there's 420 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 8: the potential to get there. 421 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 9: We're in a pre glut phase. 422 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 5: I think what's been great in just in the last again, 423 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 5: in the last ten years, the US going from a 424 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 5: net importer. 425 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly. Who talks about peak oil? 426 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 3: I talked to Ellen Walder like twenty years ago, and 427 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 3: I'm going peek ohil pekah pieces shut. 428 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 6: Up, Tom, Yeah, watch law man, that's Ellen. 429 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 3: When do we get a new book? When do we 430 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 3: get an update? 431 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 9: Come on, when do we get a new book? That's 432 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 9: a good question. Not not not yet. 433 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 8: But we've definitely got some interesting other other things in 434 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 8: the in the you know, in fire right now. 435 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 3: Very cool, Ellen, Netflix is looking for that. Ellen wald 436 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,439 Speaker 3: with us, your senior fellow Atlantic console her one volume. 437 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 3: Saudi really can't say. Oh, thank you, ay Saudi Inc. 438 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,159 Speaker 3: I'm sorry I did it for the Netflix series. 439 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 2: They changed it. 440 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 6: From Saudi in shorter Saudi. Yep, exactly right. 441 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 442 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 443 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 444 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube. And oh, he's on 445 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:01,679 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal the day. 446 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 3: Look at the front pages. It is the Lisa Matteo Hour. 447 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 6: Lisa, what are you all right? 448 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: We gotta go to Juan Soto and the Mets. 449 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 2: Right. 450 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 10: Thank you to Ari for pointing this article out, big 451 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,400 Speaker 10: shout out there. So, yes, the Mets offer the most 452 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 10: money for Juan Soto right outpitting the Yankees by about 453 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 10: five million. 454 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: But really it could have been than that. No, it 455 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:21,239 Speaker 1: could have been more than that. 456 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 10: See it could be the perk of a suite for 457 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 10: his family. That could have been the game changer, because 458 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 10: the post is saying that Mets over Steve Cohen, he 459 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 10: gave that green light for Sodo and his family to 460 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 10: get cid he field for his family. The part of 461 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 10: the deal the sweet. Okay, that's what he wanted. He 462 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 10: wanted this sweep. The Yankees wouldn't give it to him. 463 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 3: See like above thirty. 464 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 1: Es like sixteen tickets. 465 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 3: This is sweet in the railing and they serve food. 466 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 10: The fancy this anywhere at City Field from eight from 467 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 10: about thirty two hundred to about thirteen thousand middle Coll's 468 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:53,640 Speaker 10: hunting on the game. 469 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 3: He runs the place. 470 00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 6: Okay, Well, here's the thing. I mean. 471 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 5: The Yankees don't give sweets to the Derek Jeter, h 472 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 5: Aaron Joe. They pay for it now, discounted rates pay 473 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,160 Speaker 5: for it. So they didn't want to create this precedent, 474 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 5: I guess. 475 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 10: So yeah, they're willing to do the discounted rate. But 476 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 10: you know he said, no, I want it as part 477 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 10: of my deal. 478 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:14,960 Speaker 6: Yes, exactly. 479 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 3: The only question to me is it towards home plate 480 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:23,200 Speaker 3: from Scott Haven's uh suet or is it out farther 481 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 3: down third baseline. 482 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 10: Yeah, that's good, that's a good I don't know exactly 483 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 10: where it is. But any kind of sweet is nice. Yes, next, 484 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 10: but it is it's pretty price. But the Yankees eight 485 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 10: to twenty thousand, that's sweets. 486 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 6: Are all sold. I'm not sure. 487 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 1: About the Mets. Maybe now they will there you go, yes, 488 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: good point. Okay. 489 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 10: This is from the Wall Street Journal to two most 490 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 10: dreaded words when you get a text is when someone 491 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 10: texts you call me, Oh boy? 492 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 1: Does that annoy you? 493 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 10: Like you don't know the urgency, you don't know how 494 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 10: important it is. 495 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 1: So that's to say that it's all over social media. 496 00:25:58,240 --> 00:25:58,400 Speaker 7: Now. 497 00:25:58,400 --> 00:25:59,360 Speaker 1: The whole call me thing. 498 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 10: I get it because my son texts me call me, 499 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,199 Speaker 10: and I'm has, I'm going on my phone and like 500 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 10: something's wrong and he wants to know where the peanut 501 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 10: butter is, you know. So it's like it doesn't it 502 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,439 Speaker 10: doesn't work. So they're saying you need to change up 503 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 10: the text. Okay, you say, please call me, no rush 504 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 10: what you do? Okay, please call me when you can, okay. 505 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 6: Because nobody calls anymore. 506 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: Well, it takes a few extra taps. People of the thumbs, 507 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: come on, just put the extra worring. 508 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 3: It's amazing how the behavior has changed. 509 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 5: It's absolutely Remember back in the day, when would you 510 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 5: call your parents Sunday Sunday like your. 511 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 1: School yellege, I would on Sundays and they. 512 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,679 Speaker 5: Had rates and lower rates like at nighttime on a 513 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,360 Speaker 5: Sunday night to call it anyway. So I even even 514 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 5: now on Sundays, I try to reach out to the 515 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 5: kids across the globe. 516 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: Oh you do, even though they didn't call you for 517 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:54,680 Speaker 1: your birthday? 518 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 5: Yes, exactly, yeah, exactly, daughter. 519 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 3: I might bowling the apple here up twenty six percent 520 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 3: this year. I mean, we're all. I mean, I don't 521 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 3: know what percentage of our phones are Apple, but our 522 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,359 Speaker 3: behaviors really changed. 523 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 6: Yes, yes, it's really really strange. 524 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of people texting. 525 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 10: They also say that the younger people complaining because they're 526 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 10: getting those call me texts from their parents who don't 527 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 10: realize the text etiquette, and they're. 528 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: Saying, Mom, you can't just text call me like, you 529 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: have to tell you whatever I want to. There you go, there, 530 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 1: you come in charge. 531 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 6: You work for me. This is like doctor Phil. 532 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 3: Yes, trauma. 533 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 1: Stirn up some controversy. Okay, global ad sales. 534 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 10: They're actually set to top one trillion dollars in twenty 535 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 10: twenty four thanks to online advertising sites like Alphabetz, Google, 536 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 10: Meta platforms, Amazon. This is a report from Buyer Group 537 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 10: Group m SO, Google, Meta, Amazon share. Total globe global 538 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 10: ad revenue now at forty one percent. But there's a 539 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,160 Speaker 10: reason for the boost in sales, and it's not because 540 00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 10: of political advertising. 541 00:27:59,200 --> 00:27:59,520 Speaker 7: That wasn't. 542 00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 10: The whole thing behind the boost is because of like 543 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 10: the Paris Olympics, that was a big boost for it. 544 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: Those ads supported. 545 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 10: Tiers where people are paying more to see the ads. 546 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 10: That's another thing, because they want to save a few bucks, 547 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 10: so they'll pay more to have to see the ads. 548 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,120 Speaker 10: And also you have streaming services Netflix, Comcast, Peacock. They're 549 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 10: also good news because you had comcasters showed the Olympics 550 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 10: on broadcast TV but also cable and then also on 551 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 10: on Peacock as well. 552 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 1: So global ad sales yep. 553 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 5: Topic one and again the number that you mentioned, Lisa, 554 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 5: the digital players, Google, Meta, Amazon, digital advertising, so they're 555 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 5: totally share advertising years. 556 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 3: Why should this trend stop? 557 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 5: I don't think it will stop because actually, if you're 558 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 5: an advertiser, it's never been better to advertise now because 559 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 5: you have really. 560 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 6: Good solutions for you. 561 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 5: It's instead of buying an ad on a broadcast network 562 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 5: which you have no idea who you're reaching, if it's 563 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 5: your demo or not. Now with these digital advertising platforms Google, Google, Meta, Amazon, YouTube. 564 00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 6: All that kind of stuff. 565 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 5: You have much better information about who your audience is. 566 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 5: It's targetting better, it's more valuable to the advertisers. 567 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,240 Speaker 6: And they're allocating more and more money. 568 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,960 Speaker 5: So it's and we saw yesterday, Tom, you were out 569 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 5: of yesterday omnicomp, big ad agency buying into public group. 570 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 3: Two dinosaurs mating. 571 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 6: Yep, exactly right. 572 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 3: I just what if I go when I try to 573 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 3: order something, and I've got to go because you go 574 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 3: to see who Steve Cohen's buying next, And about two 575 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 3: hours later I get an email from the people, did 576 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 3: you forget something? 577 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 2: Yep? 578 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 6: That's sort of like weird it is. Do you have 579 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 6: anything else? 580 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 3: In fifty seconds? 581 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 1: Yes? 582 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 10: In fifty seconds? Is it for the gen z ers 583 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 10: I know you have in your household? Okay, gen Z 584 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 10: twelve to twenty seven, that's the age. 585 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 3: That's the age. 586 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: Yes, that's the age. 587 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 10: They're becoming gen G which is for giving. 588 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 1: They're very giving. That's what this. 589 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 10: I knew this was. 590 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 1: They're very giving. Apparently this in the financial times. 591 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 10: Here's the reason why, because they're going to be the 592 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 10: recipients of what financial I just call the Great Wealth Transfer. Okay, 593 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,720 Speaker 10: that's when the retiring boomers pass down the trillions of 594 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 10: dollars do their assets over the next twenty years. 595 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 5: And here's a great lead sentence in this Financial Times 596 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 5: article by Mariyan and Willingham. Generation Z has been raised 597 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 5: on a cocktail of climate panic, internet activism and viral celebrity. 598 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 1: And that's why they want to give back. 599 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 3: Can we just get one of them to read a 600 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 3: book cover to cover. 601 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, they don't read, but they're giving. 602 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 3: They're giving. We're giving to Lisa Matteo. Thank you so 603 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 3: much the newspapers. 604 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:39,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 605 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 606 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 607 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 608 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 609 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal. 610 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 4: I