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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chadnam, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We're

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Speaker 1: just over one hundred days until kickoff of the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four NFL season. Intrigue surrounding the season is in

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Speaker 1: full swing. That's because last week the league released the

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Speaker 1: full twenty twenty four schedule. Like everything for the NFL,

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Speaker 1: it was a major event, a tent pole event that

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Speaker 1: has extended the NFL season all the way into May.

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Speaker 1: Joining us today is a man who may spend more

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Speaker 1: time thinking about, analyzing, discussing the NFL schedule than any

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Speaker 1: man alive, veteran of the NFL analytics scene in person,

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Speaker 1: A Sharp of Sharp Footballanalysis dot Com. In front of

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Speaker 1: the podcast, Will Warren Sharp. He will join us in

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Speaker 1: a second, but first, as always, let's bring in my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my BFF professional

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Speaker 1: betters signon Hunt ed O Sooman, Hello, chat.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing? Buddy brother?

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to talk to Warren today because you know,

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Speaker 1: like his his examination of rest advantage and disadvantage that

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Speaker 1: he puts in his book the Sharp Football Analysis preview

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Speaker 1: that'll come out later this summer. We'll talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit about it is really smart and a really interesting

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Speaker 1: way to look at the schedule. But I'll tell you

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Speaker 1: right now, I don't care what he says about the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: You sent a picture to me, Matt Mitchell, producer Tito

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Speaker 1: of Joe Burrow from the Internet machine with flowing locks,

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Speaker 1: looking like he belongs on the billboard for the latest

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Speaker 1: installment of Interview with the Vampire. In a revamped Brad

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Speaker 1: Pitt Roll Brad Pitt Interview with the Vampire. We love

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Speaker 1: them at eight to one. They're down to thirteen to

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Speaker 1: one after a season of injuries. He's basically out here

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Speaker 1: saying I'm him. I'm the only one who's beaten Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: It's over. Bengals buy a million every week all the

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Speaker 1: way through to New Orleans.

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Speaker 3: Not so fast, my friend, as my friend Lee Ports

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Speaker 3: used to say, U Chad, it's the stupidest thing ever.

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Speaker 2: But we looked back. It's called the Sunshine Law.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if I remember Sunshine from one of

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Speaker 3: the best movies ever.

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Speaker 2: Remember the Titans, Guys who remember the Titans?

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Speaker 3: Ronnie Bass Yeah, go get a friend, perfectly a guy,

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Speaker 3: have a little cry together.

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Speaker 2: Go watch remember the Titans. Great movie, great crying movie

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Speaker 2: for guys.

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Speaker 3: The sunshine rule is if you don't know it, you

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Speaker 3: don't win with a long haired quarterback.

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Speaker 2: And I'm worried.

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Speaker 3: Chat we're walking into it. We have now a long

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Speaker 3: haired Joe Burrow. He needs to cut that hair before

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Speaker 3: the season because it sounds stupid.

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Speaker 2: People.

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Speaker 3: We've we've done the research, the useless planless research that

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Speaker 3: no one else will do. Last long haired quarterback to

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Speaker 3: win Super Bowl Chad Terry Bradshaw. So that was ten

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Speaker 3: years before I even existed on this beautiful planet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I love the look. I love

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's talking about his wrist and apparently it's a it's

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Speaker 3: an injury where he might only have fifty percent of

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Speaker 3: the strength. I don't know if you've seen him in practice,

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Speaker 3: he is throwing the perfect Joe Burrow deep balls. I

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Speaker 3: got no worries right now about the Bengals team and

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Speaker 3: our future bet despite the long hair.

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Speaker 1: There's one specific scenario that does worry me. I'll take

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Speaker 1: a we'll take a look at that.

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Speaker 2: With Warren Waren's gonna break that down for us.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna he's gonna break it down. He could break

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Speaker 1: our hearts and break it down. We'll bring him on

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, catch every episode of the Favorite live

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to

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Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network

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Speaker 1: you Tube page. At long last, Warren all Right, I

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Speaker 1: mentioned the book The Sharp Football Analysis, will come out

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Speaker 1: in summer. It will be packed with insights we're betters.

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Speaker 1: One of those relevant pieces of intel is how you've

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Speaker 1: been breaking down rest in relation to schedules. I tease

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Speaker 1: that I think it's brilliant. It's so fascinating. Just explain

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Speaker 1: what this means for people who might not have heard

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Speaker 1: you on this show before, might not have bought the book,

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Speaker 1: which they certainly should buy when it comes out.

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Speaker 4: The NFL does not believe that rest matters enough to

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Speaker 4: modify the schedule to make things more equitable, but we

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Speaker 4: as betters can take advantage of that so long as

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Speaker 4: they continue to do this, which is we've been discussing.

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Speaker 4: We think is going to continue for a while, and

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Speaker 4: we share in the book every single game where there

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Speaker 4: is a rest edge of a certain number of days,

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Speaker 4: whether it's one day, three days, seven days, eight days,

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Speaker 4: this is pretty much the standard. Sometimes four days, but

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Speaker 4: that's less frequent, and we go by game by game

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Speaker 4: and list them all out in the book. And you

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Speaker 4: can get the book. I'm doing it. It's regularly thirty

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Speaker 4: dollars at the website Charp Football Analysis dot com. For

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Speaker 4: only five dollars. If you use the code sharp Book,

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Speaker 4: which I'm only sharing with you guys chat on the

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Speaker 4: show Sharp Book, you get the book for only five dollars.

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Speaker 4: Why are we doing it all the way down that

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Speaker 4: cheap because we just want people to get it now.

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Speaker 4: You can't get it now. It comes out in July.

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Speaker 4: But this book, I spend months working on it. I've

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Speaker 4: got a team of guys that help us well. But honestly,

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Speaker 4: this schedule, I was hoping the schedule. I wouldn't have

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Speaker 4: to do this much work on the schedule this year, Chad,

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Speaker 4: because the NFL put an advertisement out there that they

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Speaker 4: were seeking a data scientist to help with the schedule.

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Speaker 4: So I assumed they were going to make things a

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Speaker 4: lot more equitable moving forward, and maybe I wouldn't be

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Speaker 4: able to say as many negative things about it. Can

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Speaker 4: band as much attention and point things out, but that

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Speaker 4: actually wasn't the case. I think they were getting the

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Speaker 4: schedule data scientists to figure out how to pack more

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Speaker 4: games onto prime time, and that actually puts more teams

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Speaker 4: at rest disadvantages. So we've got a lot to talk

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Speaker 4: about here on the show.

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Speaker 1: I love that you're going after the NFL. The NFL,

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Speaker 1: you pull it back a little bit, don't be shy.

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Speaker 1: You had a quote in your story this week on

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Speaker 1: your website sharp footballanalysis dot com in which you explained

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Speaker 1: your perspective based on what the NFL says about how

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Speaker 1: they create the schedule. Give us some details on that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they make it more like an art I've heard

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Speaker 4: Mike North, who's the NFL Vice president of broadcast Planning,

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Speaker 4: seems like a great guy. I do not think this

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Speaker 4: is his fault by any stretch, but he is being

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Speaker 4: given orders like edicts that they need to make these

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Speaker 4: games sellable. They need to drive the ratings to these

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Speaker 4: games with storylines and narratives, and so a lot of

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Speaker 4: how they're building out the schedule is looking at what

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Speaker 4: matchups sound good at the beginning of the year versus

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Speaker 4: what matchups might sound good and compelling late in the year.

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Speaker 4: What storylines can we derive from these things? How do

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Speaker 4: we jack up our ratings numbers? And he listed out

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Speaker 4: three main factors that they look at when they build

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Speaker 4: the schedule, and he listed them importantly in this order.

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Speaker 4: Try to maximize viewership number one, maximize fan interest number two,

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Speaker 4: and maximize commendative minimize competitive inequalities number three. And I

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Speaker 4: truly think that that was not just the way they

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Speaker 4: rolled off his tongue. I think that was the order

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Speaker 4: in which they prioritize this. And you know, I know

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Speaker 4: Simon knows that the NFL has powerful supercomputers and algorithms.

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Speaker 4: They could spit out a schedule that is very fair

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Speaker 4: in less than a week. The reason it takes them

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Speaker 4: weeks and weeks and months to come out with this

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Speaker 4: schedule is because they are trying to make this schedule

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Speaker 4: more entertaining and be able to drive big dollar games

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Speaker 4: and drive the ratings. And Mike North even said, you know,

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Speaker 4: years ago, we had this schedule out in April, mid April,

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Speaker 4: early April. We're flipping the page of the draft. Normally

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Speaker 4: we're on vacation right now. But they are pushing this

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Speaker 4: schedule back further and further because they need to build

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Speaker 4: up all these storylines. And what it does, it's going

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Speaker 4: to make the NFL more money. What it also does, unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: is it creates disadvantages widespread. There's one hundred and one

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Speaker 4: games this year that have a rest disadvantage. It's like

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Speaker 4: thirty seven percent of all the games, is the most

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Speaker 4: that we have ever had. We've got a team like

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Speaker 4: the San Francisco forty nine ers who play eight games

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Speaker 4: at a rest disadvantage. That is almost half of their schedule.

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Speaker 4: They play at a rest disadvantage. And meanwhile, a team

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Speaker 4: like the New England Patriots plays zero games at a

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Speaker 4: rest disadvantage. And so for me, it's about making these

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Speaker 4: a little bit more equal and balanced amongst the teams,

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Speaker 4: so that one team's not playing eight, which is an

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Speaker 4: NFL record, and one team is not playing zero. Let's

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Speaker 4: spread the burden to the teams a little bit more fairly.

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Speaker 4: And the NFL just has shown they do not care

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Speaker 4: about trying to do that.

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Speaker 1: Simon. I know you want to break in here for

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Speaker 1: a second because but I do want to say one thing,

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Speaker 1: because when you describe how the NFL is mapping out

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Speaker 1: narratives and trying to build storylines. Doesn't that sound exactly

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Speaker 1: like the WWE? Like who does that brilliantly and builds

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Speaker 1: over the course of a say season. So we get

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Speaker 1: to WrestleMania and all of a sudden, we've been tracking

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Speaker 1: who might be the champion, who their nemesis is over

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Speaker 1: a twelve month period since the last WrestleMania and it's

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Speaker 1: all scripted.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Honestly, though, this feels like their first year where what

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Speaker 3: Warren's talking about it feels true for the past whatever

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Speaker 3: twenty thirty years of them making the schedule. This year

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Speaker 3: feels like they literally put the team names off and

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Speaker 3: just put the quarterback names up and then just went

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Speaker 3: to these big time you know, Amazon or wherever, just

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Speaker 3: said hey, we'll give you that Rogers party matchup on

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Speaker 3: Monday Night.

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Speaker 2: How do you like that?

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Speaker 3: ESPN or just going about it differently than they usually have.

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Speaker 3: It just feels different this year. And thank god for

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Speaker 3: guys like Warren, Like we talk about the time, everything

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Speaker 3: in the sports media business now there's different tools you

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Speaker 3: can use to your advantage. And Warren's book here what

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Speaker 3: he's doing, He's giving you guys a good deal. That's

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Speaker 3: a tool. Like again, he'll tell you himself, it's a

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Speaker 3: shitload to read through, and there is a lot. There

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Speaker 3: is a lot, but there's stuff you can highlight and

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Speaker 3: go back to during the red season. That is a

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Speaker 3: great tool, and it honestly does help because you can't

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Speaker 3: get lost in the season, and it does help to

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Speaker 3: go back and be like, oh, yeah, this team has

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Speaker 3: a really tough stretch coming up where they are going

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Speaker 3: to be less rested than these other teams. And again,

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Speaker 3: I have a bunch of questions, especially about the fort ninety,

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Speaker 3: because I wanted to fade the forty nine ers coming

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Speaker 3: to this year, and I couldn't find a reason. It's

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Speaker 3: a team that just lost the Super Bowl. I love

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Speaker 3: fading teams after Super Bowl loss, but they don't fit

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Speaker 3: the criteria right. They didn't lose a bunch of players.

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Speaker 3: They're not having to pay their star quarterback. They lost

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Speaker 3: a defensive coordinator. I don't think me and Chad or

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Speaker 3: you weren't think that's a big loss of that fort

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Speaker 3: nine ers team. So please give me some info why

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Speaker 3: I should fade this four NINIS team because of the schedule.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking for a reason to fade this team. I'm

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Speaker 3: going to dive into the forty nine ers. There's a

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Speaker 3: number of factors here.

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Speaker 4: Number one, they have a minus twenty one day net

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Speaker 4: rest differential. Now, what net rest is is it looks

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Speaker 4: at like say you're about to play another opponent and

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Speaker 4: you both play on a Sunday, but your last game

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Speaker 4: was a Sunday, so you got a week, but their

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Speaker 4: last game was a Monday, so they have less than

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Speaker 4: a week. They have six days off versus you having seven.

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Speaker 4: Then you have a plus one day edge, and they

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Speaker 4: have a minus one day edge. And over the course

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Speaker 4: of the season you can cumulatively add those together to

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Speaker 4: see what a team's net rest edge is. Forty nine

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Speaker 4: Ers have a minus twenty one day net rest differential,

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Speaker 4: which is the worst net rest differential in the last decade.

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Speaker 4: It's the sixth largest since nineteen ninety. As I said earlier,

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Speaker 4: they played eight games with the rest disadvantage. It's nearly

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Speaker 4: fifty percent of the schedule, and that's the most that

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Speaker 4: any team has ever had to play in NFL history.

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Speaker 4: They play three short week road games, which you know

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Speaker 4: having worked with teams in the past, those are some

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Speaker 4: of the games they hate the most. Going on the

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Speaker 4: road on a short week puts an extra stress on

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Speaker 4: them that their opponent doesn't have to deal with. It

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Speaker 4: makes things more difficult as well. But from week seven onward,

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Speaker 4: this stretch is ridiculous, and let's dive into it. Not

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Speaker 4: only is the rest difficult, which I'll share in a second,

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Speaker 4: but when you just look at strength of schedule, which

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Speaker 4: these are two different things. They're intertwined, but they're totally separate.

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Speaker 4: Strength of schedule is your opponents. Strength of rest is

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Speaker 4: the games the way that the NFL made you play

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Speaker 4: these opponents the time. They play the fourth most difficult

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Speaker 4: schedule of opponents from week seven onwards, so the difficulty

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Speaker 4: of their schedule is brutal. And six of those eleven

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Speaker 4: games they are going to be playing at a rest disadvantage.

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Speaker 4: They play Kansas City when Kansas City is coming off

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Speaker 4: their bye. They play Dallas the very next week in

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Speaker 4: week eight, when Dallas is coming off the bye. Week eleven,

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Speaker 4: they play Seattle when Seattle's coming off the bye. Week thirteen,

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Speaker 4: they play Buffalo when Buffalo is coming off the bye.

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Speaker 4: Week fourteen, the very next week, they play Chicago when

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Speaker 4: Chicago's coming off of a mini by, and then they

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Speaker 4: play Arizona when Arizona has extra rest as well. They're

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Speaker 4: playing these four games versus teams coming off of a bye.

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Speaker 4: That's tied for the most in thirty five years since

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Speaker 4: nineteen ninety. I can't find another team that's played more

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Speaker 4: teams that are coming off of a bye. And there's

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Speaker 4: a few things that I'm not even mentioning, But the

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Speaker 4: worst thing about so that attacks the Niners this year, right, simon,

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Speaker 4: But the worst thing if you're a Niners fan is

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Speaker 4: that the Niners had the worst net rest differential last season.

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Speaker 4: Two straight years they've been screwed by the league and

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Speaker 4: getting the worst net rest differential, and so is one

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Speaker 4: thing not to balance it out during the season, Right,

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Speaker 4: the Niners play eight games without against teams, the Niners

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Speaker 4: play eight games on short rest, whereas other teams play zero.

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Speaker 4: That's one thing, but it's another thing to say the

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Speaker 4: Niners got screwed last year, we're gonna screw them again

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Speaker 4: this year. That shows to me that the league really

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Speaker 4: either doesn't care or is unaware of these measurements and

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Speaker 4: these factors, and they're not really utilizing it. To build

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Speaker 4: their schedule. And you know, I know, Chad, you might

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Speaker 4: want to go down the path with me about does

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Speaker 4: rest matter? Where's the evidence? Because I know what the

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Speaker 4: NFL has said about various teams like the Chiefs, like

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Speaker 4: the forty nine ers, where they claim, oh, well, the

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Speaker 4: forty nine ers still made the Super Bowl, so rest

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Speaker 4: doesn't matter. But when you look at the games that

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Speaker 4: they played when they were at a rest disadvantage, they

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Speaker 4: were night and day different than the games that they

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Speaker 4: played when they just had regular rest. No advantage, just

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Speaker 4: regular rest, let alone an advantage. So it impacted the

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Speaker 4: best teams in the NFL, like the Chiefs, like the Niners,

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Speaker 4: like the Eagles last season, and it certainly is going

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Speaker 4: to impact some of the teams that are much worse

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Speaker 4: than those.

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Speaker 1: Well, you're right, I was going to ask you about

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Niners who had the biggest rest

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Speaker 1: disadvantages last year. I don't necessarily think a rest advantage

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Speaker 1: or disadvantage should be used as a marker of a

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Speaker 1: team that can go to the Super Bowl because you

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Speaker 1: still need a great roster, and a lot of times

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Speaker 1: the preseason is the great equalizer when it comes to

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Speaker 1: rest because so many teams are banged up no matter

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Speaker 1: how much rest they've had during the year. I think

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Speaker 1: rest matters on a one game, week to week base,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily on a postseason basis. So I don't quibble

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Speaker 1: with the Niners and the Chiefs making the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: and them also being two teams that had a huge

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Speaker 1: rest disadvantage. But I do think this is a very

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Speaker 1: good compliment to seeing games in which you might find

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Speaker 1: an advantage during the year. You mentioned the Niners take

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Speaker 1: people through a schedule quirk last year that we all

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Speaker 1: looked at and which we all started fading the Niners

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Speaker 1: that underneath that was a rest disadvantage. I think you

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Speaker 1: know the sequence, the three week sequence I'm talking about.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the Niners went zero and three. So these three

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Speaker 4: straight game, these three games in particular, I highlighted before

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Speaker 4: the season because last year, I've got my I've got

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Speaker 4: my Uh. Here's the twenty twenty three net rest edges

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Speaker 4: graphic here, which I have, and then the twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: four net rest Edge graphic here, and which, by the way,

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Speaker 4: each year I do this, this graphic gets wider and

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Speaker 4: wider and wider, which means they're screwing more teams to

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Speaker 4: the and helping more teams, Like, we're not getting more balanced,

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Speaker 4: it keeps getting wider. But the Niners last year, there

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Speaker 4: were three games where they were playing at minus seven,

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Speaker 4: minus seven or minus eight day rest disadvantage, and that's

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Speaker 4: really what built up their minus twenty net rest disadvantage.

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Speaker 4: So in those three games, it was against the Bengals

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Speaker 4: when the Bengals were plus eight days. It was against

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Speaker 4: the Browns when the Browns were off of a bye.

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Speaker 4: It was against the Seahawks when the Seahawks was off

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Speaker 4: of Mini Bay and the Niners won a short week.

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Speaker 4: The Niners go zero to three in those three games.

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Speaker 4: They were favored in those games by fourteen and a half,

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Speaker 4: nine and a half, and four and a half points. Okay,

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Speaker 4: so they're supposed to win by double digits pretty much

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Speaker 4: in two of the three games. They only won one

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Speaker 4: of those three games. They lost all three against the

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Speaker 4: spread by wapping thirty two and a half points. Then,

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Speaker 4: if you look at the games where they weren't in

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Speaker 4: the net rest disadvantage, they covered the spread fifty eight

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Speaker 4: percent of the time. They went nine to three in

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Speaker 4: those games. So they were great in the other games.

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Speaker 4: But when rest was a factor against these teams off

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Speaker 4: of a bye, they were bad. Same exact thing happened

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Speaker 4: with the Kansas City Chiefs. I know the Kansas City

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Speaker 4: Chiefs went to the Super Bowl and won the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: But the Kansas City Chiefs in all the games that

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Speaker 4: they played where they didn't have a two or more

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Speaker 4: day rest disadvantage, they were twelve and three ATS, that's

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Speaker 4: eighty percent ATS, and they won thirteen of the fifteen games.

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Speaker 4: That's eighty seven percent win rate. When they were playing

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Speaker 4: with the rest disadvantage of two or more days, they

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Speaker 4: went one and four ATS, that's twenty percent. They only

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Speaker 4: won two out of those five games, and they got

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Speaker 4: super lucky that one of the games was against Jake

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Speaker 4: Browning in the Cincinnati Bengals, it was in Kansas City.

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Speaker 4: Kansas City was losing in the fourth quarter of that game.

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Speaker 4: Otherwise they're going zero to five ATS. So you could say, yes,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs are a good enough team. Like to your point, Chad,

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Speaker 4: they're talented enough, they've got a good enough fifty three

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Speaker 4: roster is good, and they've got one of the best

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Speaker 4: coaches and the best quarterbacks. So can they overcome these

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Speaker 4: things and crush bad teams and still win enough games

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Speaker 4: to go to the Super Bowl. Yes, but did rest

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Speaker 4: impact them last year? The numbers are quite clear, and

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Speaker 4: so to gloss over it and suggest that because they

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Speaker 4: made the super Bowl, rest was not a factor, I

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Speaker 4: just cannot disagree more than that. And the same is

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Speaker 4: true for a variety of other teams. I'm trying to

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Speaker 4: highlight some that the NFL pointed out a case studies

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Speaker 4: as to why rest isn't a big factor. And I'm

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Speaker 4: not saying it's the biggest factor in the world, but

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Speaker 4: it is a factor, and it is something that the

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Speaker 4: NFL is glossing over, and there are advantages that we

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Speaker 4: can use when we're betting these games as a result, and.

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Speaker 3: Too, Warren's point eating a touch on it. That point

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Speaker 3: nine ers team. They crawled that super Bowl, They went

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Speaker 3: over three eighths end the season, the playoffs, and the

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Speaker 3: big part is, yes, the public got caught right. They

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Speaker 3: kept over value this team. The books were kind of like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: come come take this double digit favorite here and a

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Speaker 3: team that Warren is talking about, they went through a

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Speaker 3: really tough schedule in that week off that don't really

401
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Speaker 3: help them, right, they had a close game with Green Bay,

402
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Speaker 3: then a close game with Detroit and then they lost

403
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Speaker 3: by three point Super Bowl. Like that team, if we

404
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Speaker 3: get them fully healthy extra rest, I feel like they

405
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Speaker 3: would have been a much better stronger position in that

406
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Speaker 3: playoff run than they were clearly in.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: So again people want to push back on this stuff.

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Speaker 3: There's evidence to it, like there really is. And that's

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Speaker 3: why you know, we're talking here about teams that have

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Speaker 3: a disadvantage. What are the teams of the advantage?

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Speaker 2: Worn? Like, who are the teams?

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Speaker 3: I mean you lightly mentioned I can't believe Chad, and

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Speaker 3: jump right in and cut me off with about the Bears,

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Speaker 3: Like there are teams that there are little advantages where

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Speaker 3: you know, the public loves Chicago. They are betting they're

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Speaker 3: over and droves. Now you're about to give them another reason,

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Speaker 3: hon Worn.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the Chicago Bears, where are they? They are at

420
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Speaker 4: plus five in net rest advantage, which is big for them.

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Speaker 4: It's something that they haven't been able to enjoy for

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Speaker 4: a while now. And there's a lot of factors for

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Speaker 4: the Chicago Bears that stand out. When I look at

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Speaker 4: my other graphic here, which is my prep and rest variables,

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Speaker 4: which is different than net rest edges, prep and rest variables.

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at like how many days do you does

427
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Speaker 4: your opponent have to prepare over or under seven days?

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Speaker 4: And if you look at a team like the Chicago Bears,

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Speaker 4: they've got a nice schedule where they only play one

430
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Speaker 4: short road game, which is obviously a benefit to them.

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Speaker 4: They play zero games off of a road Sunday night

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Speaker 4: or Monday night football. Their buy is not negated, which

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Speaker 4: some teams have buys that are negated. They do not

434
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 4: play any of this which we got to cover this

435
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 4: three games in ten days or four games in seventeen days,

436
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 4: which are absolutely brutal stretches. They don't have to deal

437
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 4: with anything like that. And so for the Chicago Bears,

438
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 4: it's just a great way. And I think the way

439
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 4: that their schedule starts is going to really help from

440
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 4: a strength of opponent as well. They should get started

441
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 4: off on the right track, instilling a lot of confidence

442
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 4: for Caleb Williams, and the fact that they aren't playing

443
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 4: with any real true difficult rest disadvantages this season is

444
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 4: just lovely. I mean, if you look at them, I

445
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 4: think they play only one team that is coming off

446
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 4: of a bye and that's it. They've got three games.

447
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 4: And we'll talk about this maybe later, but the one

448
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 4: day rest disadvantage is not that big of a deal.

449
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 4: Later in the season, it becomes a smaller factor. But

450
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 4: when you're talking three days or more, that is a

451
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 4: big deal. And they've got three games where they've got

452
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 4: three days or more rest advantage, and they only play

453
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 4: one game where they're at three games or worse disadvantage.

454
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 4: So three to one to the Bears favor.

455
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: You know what you said it right? That does sound lovely, Simon.

456
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the

457
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: United States?

458
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 2: Game Time?

459
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for

460
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I

461
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last

462
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 1: minute deals, including pro in college sports. I'm actually opening

463
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: the game Time app right now from my house here

464
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Guess what the hottest team in baseball the

465
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: New York Yankees. I can get into see them for

466
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: thirty bucks. No matter where you live, download the game

467
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 1: Time app. Get out have some fun this week. You

468
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: deserve it. You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars

469
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: off first purchase terms apply again. Just download the Game

470
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: Time app and use code favorites for twenty dollars off

471
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: your first purchase, last minute tickets, loose prices guaranteed. It

472
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: feels to me. Look, we can debate the NFL's intentions

473
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: or motives all we want. I think Simon and Warren,

474
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: you're both exactly right. They basically just said Amazon, which

475
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: quarterback matchup can we give you? ESPN? Which quarterback matchup

476
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 1: can we give you? And I don't think it's like

477
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: think the NFL is purposely disadvantaging teams like the Niners,

478
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: but they know the teams like the Niners rate and

479
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 1: they know people are going to tune in.

480
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 2: At that chad. It's all said.

481
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 3: They got the data to prove that there is no

482
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 3: difference than a short week and a long week when

483
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 3: it comes to injuries.

484
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 2: So that's their reasoning for this.

485
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 3: Where it's like people want to push back on they

486
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 3: keep trying to throw a data in front of them,

487
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 3: where it's like, I don't know I talked to I mean,

488
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 3: we had Chris long On, they talked.

489
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 2: About those short weeks.

490
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: They say, otherwise they say all terrible to so That's

491
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 3: why again, people like warn are so important where it's

492
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 3: like you need someone challenge NFL where they try to

493
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: make make like it's all good and it's not right.

494
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,479
Speaker 3: Chad's that's the issue people are having here.

495
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, But you know what, I don't even think it's

496
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 1: about injuries, Simon. Remember what Chris said, and this sticks

497
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: out to me. We were on that Eagles that we

498
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: watched that Eagles Bills game that went to overtime, right

499
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: we were watching it on Sunday as we were getting

500
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 1: ready to record the podcast.

501
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 2: Untain at the Mouth fade the Eagles exactly and.

502
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 1: As second it ended, we jumped all over the Niners

503
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 1: the next week in Philadelphia, and then Chris went on

504
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: his podcast on The green Light Podcast with his brother

505
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 1: Kyle and talked about how it's so freaking hard when

506
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 1: you've played eighty ninety plays into overtime in the late

507
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 1: game to get ready for the next week, and that

508
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 1: when you are coming off the field, every hour matters

509
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 1: for recovery. So it's not even about the injuries, it's

510
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 1: about the recovery time. I think that's the genius of

511
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 1: what Warren is pointing out here is like everyone might

512
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: be quote unquote healthy, but they might not have recovered,

513
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 1: which is the hard thing.

514
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 4: You're absolutely right, and that's one of the things that

515
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 4: Mike North mentioned on his shows where that was its tea, Hey,

516
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 4: they've had they have this tough stretch. Warren was talking

517
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 4: about it, and that's the team that went to the playoffs. Well,

518
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 4: as you guys know by fading them off of that

519
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 4: game against the Bills. There was a specific stretch we twelve, thirteen,

520
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 4: and fourteen where they played three weeks where they were

521
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 4: against teams that were all having a rest advantage, and

522
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 4: the Eagles did not cover the spread in any of

523
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 4: those games. They went zero to three ats in those

524
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 4: games despite being three and three and a half point dogs.

525
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 4: They were smoked by both the Niners and the Cowboys

526
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 4: forty two to nineteen against the Niners, thirty three to

527
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 4: thirteen against the Cowboys the very next week after that,

528
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 4: where they were also at a rest disadvantage, and that

529
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 4: game against the Bills they were at a rest disadvantage,

530
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 4: but they were three point favorites. They were losing by

531
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 4: ten points in the fourth quarter, they needed to make

532
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 4: a fifty nine yard field go at the buzzer to

533
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 4: send the game to overtime, and then they were losing

534
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 4: in overtime, so they got away with not losing that

535
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 4: game ATS, but they lost the other two games in blowout. Fact,

536
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 4: and if I looked at the Eagles, they went oh

537
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 4: five and one ATS and just three and three when

538
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 4: having less rest in their opponent. Last year when they

539
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 4: did not have less rest in their opponent, they were

540
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 4: seven and two straight up five too and two ATS.

541
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 4: So they moved from sixty three at sixty three percent

542
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 4: ATS all the way down to zero percent ATS with

543
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 4: the rest, So it was a factor for them. I

544
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 4: absolutely agree that it is a it's about the rest,

545
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 4: it's about the preparation, and it does end up having

546
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,400
Speaker 4: a cumulative compounding effect over the course of the year.

547
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 4: During these runs where teams are dealing with it, it's

548
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 4: not difficult enough for certain teams to overcome it and

549
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 4: still perform. But absolutely one hundred percent agree they are

550
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 4: not factoring this in. And if that quote is true

551
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 4: where they said that there's no difference in uh, was

552
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 4: it a team playing off of a short week versus not?

553
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 4: The fact is that the data is certainly that I'm

554
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 4: looking at from a betting perspective shows that it is

555
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 4: a factor. But secondly, what I would encourage the NFL

556
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 4: to do is just try this experiment. Ask teams independently,

557
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 4: all thirty two teams, would you rather play on from

558
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 4: a Monday to a Sunday or would you rather play

559
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 4: from a Thursday to the following Sunday extra rest versus

560
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 4: short rest. There's not a team out there who's going

561
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 4: to volunteers day. I think the short week is better

562
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 4: for us. There's not a team out there who would say,

563
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 4: I'll take the San Francisco forty nine ers minus twenty

564
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 4: one day rest schedule this year as opposed to if

565
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 4: you offered me the Baltimore Ravens were at plus sixteen

566
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 4: netrest edge. Every single coach out there is going to

567
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 4: take the team that's more rested. These teams they hire

568
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 4: and contract with guys like me. They have great buildings themselves.

569
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 4: They care about every single competitive advantage, no matter how

570
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 4: slim it might be. So there's not a world a

571
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 4: universe that the coaches or the general manager would say

572
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 4: rest isn't a factor. So for the league to say that,

573
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 4: I think is a little disingenuous Because the players, the coaches,

574
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 4: the GMS would not echo that sentiment and the betting

575
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: data that basically shows are you outperforming expectations or are

576
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 4: you underperforming expectations, because that matters more than just the

577
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 4: straight up wins and losses that betting line. When you're

578
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 4: losing against that betting line, with the rest disadvantage and

579
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 4: the sample sizes as large as it is, I think

580
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 4: it's sort of certainly a compelling case that rest is

581
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 4: a factor.

582
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, you do have irrefutable, conclusive proof about the betting

583
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: results when it comes to rest disadvantage, and I want

584
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 1: to I want to get to that in a couple

585
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: of minutes in the show, a little bit of a

586
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 1: foreshadow and a tease. But you just mentioned the Eagles

587
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: kind of getting slaughtered with a rest disadvantage at the

588
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 1: end of the year. They're one of the teams that

589
00:30:55,520 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 1: have the best rest advantage this year. And I know

590
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: Simon and I have already started talking about how we

591
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: like the Eagles season win total because of what they've

592
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: done to their roster, what how He's done in the draft,

593
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: the moves they've made, the coaching moves they've made, and

594
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: also we think the Cowboys have fallen back a little bit.

595
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 1: Give us another team. I think the number one team

596
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: with the rest advantage in the NFL this year.

597
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 4: The Baltimore Ravens are that team. They're plus sixteen games

598
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 4: net rest advantage this season. And it's really a scary

599
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 4: thought before I dive into like some of the nuances

600
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 4: of their schedule, to think of late season Derrick Henry

601
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 4: with extra rest over these defensive linemen he's going up

602
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 4: against this season, and what that offensive line might be

603
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 4: able to do against a you know, a rest disadvantage

604
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 4: defensive line, and the push they could get to help

605
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 4: Derek Henry long as he's getting older and his career.

606
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 4: But they play an NFL high five games with more

607
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 4: rest than their opponent. Of those five games, four are

608
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 4: extremely meaningful because they come with three plus days of

609
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 4: rest advantage. As I've mentioned to you before how important

610
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 4: that is. John Harbaugh has an outstanding track record since

611
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 4: he became a head coach when he's had three or

612
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 4: more days of rest versus his opponent, He's won eighty

613
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 4: one percent of those games, which is the best of

614
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 4: any head coach in the NFL since twenty seventeen. The

615
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 4: Ravens are ten to one with a three plus day

616
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 4: rest advantage, which is the best mark in the NFL.

617
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 4: And importantly, if you're looking to back the Ravens, as

618
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 4: you guys indicated that you might be, I think it's

619
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 4: valuable to place wagers on them to win the AFC

620
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 4: North as well, because if you look at how the

621
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 4: Ravens match up to the rest of the teams in

622
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 4: the AFC North from a rest perspective, it's pretty glaring.

623
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 4: So the Ravens are at plus sixteen days total net

624
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 4: rest advantage this year. The Browns and Steelers are only

625
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 4: at plus two, and the Bengals are at minus two.

626
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 4: I'll talk further down about you know, the Bengals, because

627
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 4: you wanted to talk a little bit about them, But

628
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 4: if you only look at the AFC North games themselves,

629
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 4: no team hasn't has a rest advantage net rest. If

630
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 4: you look at the other three teams Bengals, all the

631
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 4: AFC North games stack up and sum up to zero

632
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 4: days of advantage. Steelers are at minus two, Browns are

633
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 4: at minus four, Ravens are at plus six, so they've

634
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 4: got a rest advantage over the league. Unprecedented. No team

635
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 4: has ever in history had plus sixteen days net rest

636
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 4: advantage they do this year. But then also when you

637
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 4: compare them to the rest of the AFC North, that

638
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 4: rest is certainly impactful. So you know, this is not

639
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 4: if you're already looking to bet them, This is just

640
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 4: another idea. This is I'm never going to say only

641
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 4: bet this because of rest, but rest absolutely is a factor,

642
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 4: and it's just another reason why you might want to

643
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 4: support them in a different type of way.

644
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 3: Sadly, Cha Chad misled you. We are we are not

645
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 3: bro Ravens this year. But our whole reasoning was, would

646
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 3: you know as well, they do have the hardest schedule

647
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 3: of the hardest schedules in all football, right, I mean

648
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: they're if you look it on paper, it's brutal. And

649
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 3: I mean they might have lost one of the better

650
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 3: defensive minds in all of football, right, Like that's that's

651
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 3: a big deal, losing a DC who's pretty damn good.

652
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 3: He's taking you know, van Ney told turn him and

653
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: was to a pro bowler. He's in Seattle. Now, you know,

654
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 3: they just fit the criteria of the team that they

655
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 3: lost a lot of pieces, and then you saw today

656
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 3: Lamar is down to apparently two h five. Wait, like,

657
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 3: that's that's shocking they that they agreed to let him

658
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 3: do that again, it's Lamar's show. The guy's got two MVPs.

659
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 3: If he came to me, I ran the team, He's like,

660
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 3: I want to lose twenty pounds. You got to support him, right,

661
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,399
Speaker 3: But I'm interested to hear your take on that. Would

662
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 3: you would you take their over? Are you just going

663
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 3: to be you know what, I'll just take their division ods.

664
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 3: I don't really like their win total because there's just

665
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 3: no value there.

666
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm I'm not really in favor of their win total,

667
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,399
Speaker 4: but taking them on to for the division, I think

668
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 4: there could be a little bit of value there. Yeah,

669
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 4: I agree, you didn't mention it. But that offensive line

670
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: has a ton of turn on as well, and we

671
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 4: know the way that this team wants to operate. Yes,

672
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 4: I know they changed their offensive coordinator before last season,

673
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 4: and they are passing the football more, which obviously they

674
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 4: needed to do, but they still need to run the ball.

675
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: They still need to finish out games, and they were

676
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 4: struggling to do that last year, and that was with

677
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 4: a healthier, you know, a bet more talented offensive line.

678
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 4: They've lost some of those pieces this year. They do

679
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 4: have a lot that they need to replace this offseason,

680
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 4: but from a rest perspective alone, they have a huge

681
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 4: edge over the rest of that division. And if you

682
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 4: want to talk a little bit about the Cincinnati Bengals,

683
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 4: because they're in the same division, the concerns that I

684
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 4: have for the Bengals are just the rest and this

685
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 4: is a good transition, I think into discussing the three

686
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 4: games in ten days, which is absurd, but the NFL

687
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 4: decided to instill this this season.

688
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 3: You can see who the three teams are with this

689
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 3: stat right. You said there's three teams that fit this criteria, right, Well.

690
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 4: There's actually there's actually ten. So I found there were guys.

691
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 4: The Jets are another one. So if you go back,

692
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 4: if you go back like last year, no teams played

693
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 4: three games in ten days, If you went the year before,

694
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 4: no teams. In fact, the last five years combined, zero

695
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 4: teams played three games in ten days. The NFL got

696
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,760
Speaker 4: rid of it. They never said why, they just stopped

697
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 4: putting it into their schedule, and obviously I think part

698
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 4: of the reason is player health and safety and those

699
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 4: types of things. It's just hard to ask teams to

700
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 4: do that in the last ten years it only happened

701
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,280
Speaker 4: twice total, and this year it's happening ten times.

702
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:34,799
Speaker 1: Now.

703
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 4: What they're doing is they're using the Christmas Day games

704
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 4: as in avenue to then introduce it in other parts

705
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 4: of the schedule. So the Christmas Day games, you have

706
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 4: a situation where in order to play on a Wednesday,

707
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,720
Speaker 4: they had to get these teams to play the Saturday before,

708
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 4: because then that's the same turnaround as a Sunday to Thursday.

709
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 4: But then they have them also play on a Sunday,

710
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 4: So it goes Sunday to Saturday to Wednesday, which is

711
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 4: three ten and in every single one of those games

712
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 4: they're likely to have a rest disadvantage, well the second two.

713
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 4: So what the league did smartly on their part is

714
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,919
Speaker 4: that they made it so that those two games, which

715
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 4: involve four teams, those teams that are gonna play Wednesday,

716
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 4: they're going to play the opponents on Saturday. So in

717
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 4: other words, those four teams are going to be playing

718
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 4: one of their let's play tennis, Like I think it's

719
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 4: the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans and the

720
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 4: Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. So on one day

721
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 4: the Texans play the Chiefs, and then another day the

722
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,439
Speaker 4: Texans are going to play the Ravens, and so those

723
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 4: four teams at least they aren't going to have rest issues.

724
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 4: They'll be the same amount of rest in those games.

725
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 4: But then, for whatever reason, the league said, aha, we're

726
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 4: doing it to four teams for Christmas, let's also do

727
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 4: it to six other teams at other points in the

728
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 4: season for no real reason at all, because they're getting

729
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty million from Netflix to do it

730
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 4: on these Christmas Day games. So I understand, put Taylor

731
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 4: Swift's boyfriend on Christmas, get a hundred fifty million dollars, Okay, fine,

732
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 4: But for these other games, these other six teams that

733
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 4: have to do this, it's absurd. And the only team

734
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 4: in this bunch Simon and Chad who have to deal

735
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 4: with a rest disadvantage in the first game of this

736
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 4: three game series is the Cincinnati Bengals. And the reason

737
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 4: the Cincinnati Bengals have to deal with it is because

738
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 4: that first game that they play, So for the for

739
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 4: the rest of the teams, it's not a Sunday, Saturday Wednesday.

740
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 4: They play a Monday, then a Sunday, then a Thursday,

741
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,879
Speaker 4: so that's the sequence here. They play Dallas on Monday night.

742
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 4: Dallas had a Thursday game the week before on Thanksgiving,

743
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 4: so Dallas or a week and a half before, so

744
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 4: Dallas is off a mini bi with rest edge to

745
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 4: play Cincinnati on Monday Night football then, and that game's

746
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 4: in Dallas, by the way, so they have to travel

747
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 4: to Dallas. Dallas has three days rest advantage. Then they

748
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 4: have to travel to Tennessee the next week, where they're

749
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 4: at a disadvantage because since he's off the Monday night

750
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 4: game and Tennessee is not. And then they have to

751
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 4: play Cleveland on Thursday back home, so they're doing criss

752
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 4: crossing traveling. They're at rest disadvantage in all three of

753
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 4: these games. And that's just one issue for the Cincinnati Bengals.

754
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 4: There's several other issues. In fact, like I said, on

755
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 4: this chart for the prep and rest, they're the lowest

756
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,280
Speaker 4: ranked team on here. So the positives from a strength

757
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 4: the schedule perspective, the Bengals do play an easy schedule.

758
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 4: The other positive is that when you look at their

759
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 4: net rest edge, they aren't one of the bottom ten

760
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,760
Speaker 4: teams there. But when you look at the individual games

761
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:32,800
Speaker 4: and some of the sequences that they're dealing with and

762
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: some of the difficulties that they're dealing with. It is measurable.

763
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 4: It is a factor in there. They're toughest games, some

764
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 4: of their toughest games on the schedule. Rest is working

765
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 4: against them in all of those games, and they're all

766
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 4: on the road. They play Week two in Kansas City.

767
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 4: Kansas City is off a mini buy from Week one.

768
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 4: They play Baltimore in Week ten, that's a short week

769
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 4: road game, and I already mentioned this game against the

770
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 4: Dallas Cowboys in Dallas, where Dallas is off of a

771
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 4: meaning by themselves, and that kicks off the three days

772
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 4: three games in ten days. They play five games versus

773
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 4: teams that have over seven days to prepare for them.

774
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 4: Their Week twelve bye week is partially negated because the

775
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 4: Steelers have a mini buy ahead of that game as well.

776
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 4: And the Bengals are playing three short week road games

777
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 4: this year. They also played three short week road games

778
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 4: last year. In both cases that was the most the

779
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,280
Speaker 4: NFL gave to any team in those seasons. So again

780
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 4: they're forcing the Bengals to play these short week road

781
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 4: games and back to back years. Why not spread it

782
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,439
Speaker 4: out a little bit. Why put the Bengals the ones

783
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 4: If you want to put them on protect, put on

784
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 4: a short week make up, let them play at home.

785
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 4: I mean, why are you continuing to send them on

786
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 4: the road. I think that's going to make the Bengals

787
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 4: fans a little mad.

788
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:54,240
Speaker 1: Clearly, Mike North and the NFL schedulers new Joe Burrow

789
00:40:54,960 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: was going to have a herculean main of hair that

790
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 1: would power him through any rest disadvantages. With Father's Day

791
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 1: right around the corner, what do you give to the

792
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 1: man who has everything? You give him a winning bet,

793
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:16,040
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794
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:20,759
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795
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 1: world class dad deserves a world class steak. The Father's

796
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,680
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797
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,320
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798
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:34,440
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799
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,800
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800
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:41,719
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801
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:46,640
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802
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803
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804
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805
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807
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:16,280
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808
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:22,080
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809
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810
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Speaker 1: starting at just eighty nine dollars. Did point out in

811
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 1: your story and this will be in the book Sharp

812
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 1: Football Analysis Preview. Go get it for five bucks using

813
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: the Code Sharp book. Use the Code Sharp book Get

814
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:47,879
Speaker 1: it for five bucks. Forty two short week road games

815
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 1: up from thirty to thirty eight last year. The Niners

816
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 1: in the Bengals taking the brunt of those short week

817
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 1: games the most of any team in the NFL. They

818
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 1: each have three short week rowad games. I don't know

819
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 1: if you have these against the spread stats in front

820
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: of you, but I do want to run through them

821
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 1: because you made a point of talking about there is

822
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: serious evidence. If you don't have them in front of you,

823
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 1: I have them and can recite them to you, or

824
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: you can tell me if you have them in front

825
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: of you.

826
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got them here. But let's hear you run

827
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 4: through them, because I think you'll present a compolling argument.

828
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 1: In the last two years, teams playing short week road

829
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 1: games have only won forty three percent of the time

830
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 1: while covering just forty seven percent of the time. In

831
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: betting parlance, if you're getting a percentage that is over

832
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 1: fifty three percent, which is what you would get essentially

833
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,839
Speaker 1: with this formula. Simon and I, if we're going through

834
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 1: the schedule, this is something we would be looking at right.

835
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: This is a system we would be looking at again

836
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: and again and again. Short week road games impact teams

837
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: worse as the season goes on. We saw that with

838
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 1: the Eagles because of what happened late in the year.

839
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 1: You get more banged up, you get more run down.

840
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 1: I know Simon, how you and I feel at the

841
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 1: end of the season. It's Week fourteen. We are dragging

842
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 1: and we're not even playing. It's exhausting underdogs. After Week

843
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: six now I feel like we're in mid season four

844
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:24,879
Speaker 1: in a short week road game forty one seventeen twenty

845
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: six percent against straight up the last decade, and have

846
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: covered just forty percent against the spread of those one

847
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty games. Simon, if Evan was giving us

848
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 1: this stat in the middle of a podcast in mid season,

849
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 1: it would make us change everything we think about a game.

850
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: And I'd also let you know people worry about it.

851
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 3: The books haven't caught up to it then, right If

852
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 3: that's the percentages s people always word with this stuf,

853
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 3: You're like, well, if Warren's putting this book out, the

854
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 3: books have this info, how are they not going to

855
00:44:57,640 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 3: catch up to it? I always tell them that doesn't work.

856
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 3: Booking does not work that way, not an overnight change, right,

857
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,919
Speaker 3: It's usually a slow burn. So clearly there is still

858
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 3: an advantage to following what we're talking about here, right, Chad.

859
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,399
Speaker 1: One hundred percent more and that is gold right there.

860
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: What you have dug up.

861
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 4: We know the books are trying to come out with

862
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 4: their lines very quickly once the schedule is set, right boom,

863
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 4: the schedule is set. They try to get up lines

864
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 4: for all games that are being played, all two hundred

865
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 4: and seventy two games be the first one to do that,

866
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 4: and then other people might copy the numbers. It takes

867
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,279
Speaker 4: me a little while, you know. I work on this

868
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 4: for days. I don't sleep much. After the schedule comes out,

869
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 4: then I write this article which is like nineteen pages

870
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,320
Speaker 4: in a word document that I submit to submit to

871
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 4: the editor who hates my guts after that. But at

872
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 4: any rate, it takes a while to come up with

873
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 4: this stuff. There's no way the books are incorporating these

874
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 4: rest things three days here and six days there, and

875
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 4: in their numbers as they're coming up with them, it's

876
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 4: based on whatever they're giving home field and the power

877
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 4: ratings of these teams. They're not adjusting as much when

878
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 4: they're quickly trying to come out with these numbers for

879
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 4: every single game. And like Simon said, once we even

880
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 4: get to those games, whether it's on the look ahead

881
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 4: or the week of the game, there's so many other

882
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,759
Speaker 4: factors that are being accounted for in the in the

883
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 4: number that rest is really not a top priority for

884
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 4: the book makers. And I do think it's something that

885
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:22,399
Speaker 4: we need to look a little bit more into as

886
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 4: we are betting these games. And like I said, it

887
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 4: should never be the end all be all, like the

888
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 4: singular factor that you use. But a stat like I

889
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 4: just shared with you, that's a one stat handicap, right,

890
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 4: that's just about rest. If you're a dog on a

891
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 4: short week, you've covered only forty percent of games over

892
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 4: the last decade from week six onward. That's all it is.

893
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 4: That's just a one stat handicap. If you incorporated more

894
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 4: stats into it, you might be able to refine that

895
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 4: even further. So it's it's it's exciting to find this.

896
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 4: It's also exciting that the league hasn't changed anything, and

897
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 4: is that the book makers aren't accounting for it enough.

898
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 4: Because then we've got kind of like the trifecta where

899
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 4: we can keep talking about it on your show, we

900
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 4: can keep writing about and doing the research and sharing it,

901
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 4: and we can keep betting it and making money off

902
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 4: of it, so we get the best of all the

903
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 4: possible worlds.

904
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 2: It's like the luck metric, Chad, right exactly.

905
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 1: I feel like we're just sort of building, We're building

906
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 1: a toolbox of very specific situational weapons that we can

907
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 1: apply to different parts of the season. And Simon, it's

908
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 1: going to be on you and I to sort of

909
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 1: figure out, Okay, how much weight do we give to

910
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 1: this versus something else? As we sort of build a formula.

911
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 1: But with more people like Warren, with more people like

912
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 1: Kerner and Billy Ward and Nick Giffen who create the

913
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,320
Speaker 1: luck rankings which we love like those, there's more and

914
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 1: more ways to attack these games. I do hope that

915
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 1: this is the one show where nobody who is making

916
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: markets is actually listening, because we know we move lines.

917
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 1: We've seen it already this year with a variety of

918
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:07,280
Speaker 1: win totals, season one games, you know, super Bowl ads.

919
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 1: My question for Warren before we let you go, I

920
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 1: should have asked from the beginning, how the fuck did

921
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: you think of this? Look? What made you look into

922
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: this idea?

923
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 4: This was tipped off to me from a general manager

924
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 4: years ago, several years ago, and there was a specific

925
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 4: issue with his team where he was frustrated about about

926
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:33,040
Speaker 4: having to go on these road games on short weeks.

927
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 4: That was actually the stat that he cared. He was like,

928
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 4: and ironically enough is because him and the owner were

929
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,800
Speaker 4: talking and they wanted to host more of these games

930
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 4: because of the money that you could make when you're

931
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 4: hosting these games, and the disadvantage that he saw in

932
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 4: playing in these primetime games on the road on a

933
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 4: short week, it's harder for his team to win those games.

934
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 4: He wanted to host those games instead, and he for

935
00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 4: years he was going on the road and never hosting

936
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 4: these games at home. So that was something I started

937
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 4: looking into. But then I began expanding and expanding this

938
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 4: analysis to try to think of what are all the

939
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 4: disadvantageous situations that teams might find themselves in, and what

940
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,799
Speaker 4: should be fair, you know, and if there are going

941
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 4: to be schedules that certain number of games have to

942
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 4: be played in this situation, then try to balance it

943
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 4: out between all the teams so they're all trying to

944
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 4: deal with it to some extent, don't it shouldn't be

945
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 4: screwing a team so much and helping another team so much.

946
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 4: And that's where these net rest edges came into play.

947
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,399
Speaker 4: And it just over the years, adding more and more.

948
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 4: I will tell you that when I was first doing this,

949
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 4: like I don't know, five five years ago, let's say

950
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:46,320
Speaker 4: the four games in seventeen days was a factor, but

951
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 4: there was no three games in ten days, which is

952
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 4: even worse. But four games in seventeen days used to

953
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,919
Speaker 4: happen for a couple of teams, and then two years

954
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 4: ago they stopped incorporating it. So I still kept that

955
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,919
Speaker 4: column in my matrix here, but it was just zero.

956
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 4: And then last year for the twenty twenty three schedule,

957
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,879
Speaker 4: because they didn't incorporate it again, I deleted that column entirely.

958
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:08,800
Speaker 4: I said, Okay, the NFL has moved away from this,

959
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 4: no four games in seventeen days, and then all of

960
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 4: a sudden, this year is happening I want to say,

961
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 4: seven times where which is way more than it's happened

962
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 4: in the past. And now we've got these three games

963
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 4: in ten days, which is a player safety issue that

964
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 4: the players should be made aware of as well. In

965
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 4: the NFLPA to try to get a little bit bigger

966
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 4: portion of that pie, so to speak, because they're the

967
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:32,879
Speaker 4: ones that are putting their bodies on the line here

968
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 4: so that the league can put more games in prime time.

969
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 4: But it's sort of built itself up over the years,

970
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 4: and I enjoy doing it. It's very stressful, but nobody

971
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 4: else out there is really covering it to this degree.

972
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 4: So it's important to do the research, share the analysis,

973
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 4: and then talk about it.

974
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 1: It's amazing stuff. I'm glad you're doing it, Simon and

975
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 1: I love it. Sharp Footballanalysis dot Com is where you

976
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:03,160
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977
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Speaker 1: talking about with Warren. You can also order the preview,

978
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Speaker 1: Action Network. You two page eleven AM Eastern download at Spotify, Apple, Pose,

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