WEBVTT - This Is How a Locked-Down Shanghai Apartment Gets Food

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe. Joe, it feels like

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<v Speaker 1>everyone is a logistics expert nowadays. Yeah, everyone was an epidemiologist,

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<v Speaker 1>and then everybody became a dredging expert, and now everyone

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<v Speaker 1>is just a logistics expert for all. I mean, I

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<v Speaker 1>am joking, but there there there are a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people in China specifically that have been forced into becoming

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<v Speaker 1>actual logistics experts because of the lockdowns that happened going

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<v Speaker 1>on now for in some cases over a month in

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<v Speaker 1>places like Shanghai. Yeah, this is a this is a

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<v Speaker 1>really good point. So when people joke about everyone becoming

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<v Speaker 1>an expert, usually they just mean they're an expert on

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter or whatever. But for people who have to think

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<v Speaker 1>about how do you get food or how do you

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<v Speaker 1>distribute food and other key supplies during a mass lockdown,

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<v Speaker 1>becoming a logistics expert actually is not just about tweeting.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about serious steaks. Yeah. So, just to set the stage,

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<v Speaker 1>various parts of Shanghai have been in lockdown again in

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<v Speaker 1>some cases for I think up to six weeks something

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<v Speaker 1>like that. The citywide lockdown has been ongoing for about

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<v Speaker 1>a month since the start of April. And what's been

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<v Speaker 1>happening during that is, first of all, the government does

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<v Speaker 1>deliver some groceries and needed supplies to people, but residents

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<v Speaker 1>who are affected by the lockdown can also try to

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<v Speaker 1>organize their own deliveries of essentials. And it's a phenomenon

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<v Speaker 1>called group buying. It's something that's actually existed in China

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<v Speaker 1>for a while now. It's not necessarily lockdown specific, but

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<v Speaker 1>it has seen a I don't want to say a renaissance,

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<v Speaker 1>but it has become a very vital part of actually

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<v Speaker 1>getting supplies. So today I'm very excited we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be speaking with someone who has been personally involved in

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<v Speaker 1>group buying for their residential complex, someone who has had

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<v Speaker 1>to learn the intricacies of logistics and practice them on

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<v Speaker 1>a day to day basis. This is it is gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be really interesting. There's been a lot of I've seen

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<v Speaker 1>various threads of people talking about what's available and going

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<v Speaker 1>on the apps that they normally used to buy groceries,

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<v Speaker 1>and every once in a while they are able to

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<v Speaker 1>find something, but often not, sometimes are able to get

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of fresh food, and people post images

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<v Speaker 1>of what they're able to get in. But how this

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<v Speaker 1>is all working, what the actual processes, how the big

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<v Speaker 1>companies and uh the sort of delivery system is working.

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<v Speaker 1>I still don't have a great understanding. So I'm looking

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<v Speaker 1>forward to hearing how what's going on in practice, yep,

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<v Speaker 1>and it might become information that's more useful to even

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<v Speaker 1>more people at the moment, because of course there is

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of chatter that Beijing might go into lockdown

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<v Speaker 1>soon as well. And we are recording this on April,

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<v Speaker 1>So without further ado, let's bring on our guest. We're

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<v Speaker 1>going to be speaking with David Fishman. He's a senior

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<v Speaker 1>manager at the consulting firm Lantau Group over in Hong Kong,

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<v Speaker 1>may my former abode, and he's currently based in Shanghai.

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<v Speaker 1>So David, thanks so much for coming on, all thoughts,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me. Guys, Maybe just to begin with,

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<v Speaker 1>could you maybe set the scene for us, what exactly

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<v Speaker 1>is group buying in China? Um? Yeah, sure so, and

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<v Speaker 1>its most pure basic economic sense, I guess group buying

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<v Speaker 1>is a bunch of people getting together and using the

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<v Speaker 1>power of volume to UH to secure a good deal,

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<v Speaker 1>to secure a lower price or to incentivize a vendor

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<v Speaker 1>or a supplier of something to maybe service an area

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<v Speaker 1>that they wouldn't normally at a price that they wouldn't normally,

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<v Speaker 1>because now you have the power of a larger group

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<v Speaker 1>of people all buying together. Well, can you, for our

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<v Speaker 1>listeners to set the scene, describe roughly your living situation,

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<v Speaker 1>like how big of a building is it, Like how

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<v Speaker 1>many unit residences and a little bit about like a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of like day to day pre pre lockdown, what

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<v Speaker 1>your current environment is like, Yeah, sure, So, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>I live in an apartment community in Shanghai, a pretty

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<v Speaker 1>normal standard i'd say middle class maybe upper middle class

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<v Speaker 1>apartment community. There's there's twenty five floors in this building.

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<v Speaker 1>Each floor has I think seven units, uh, and our

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<v Speaker 1>apartment block has two buildings like that. It's it's on

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<v Speaker 1>the smaller side, I would say, definitely for an apartment

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<v Speaker 1>community in China. So we've got twenty five times seven

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<v Speaker 1>times two is how many households we have an hour's yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, some people are living in Shangha has

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<v Speaker 1>got a big variety of different types of architecture and

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<v Speaker 1>different types of living conditions. Some people are living in

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<v Speaker 1>these massive, sprawling thirty thirty buildings times thirty stories type places. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and other people are living in you know, much older construction,

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<v Speaker 1>much older buildings. Maybe their whole community has just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>eight households. So when the city first went into lockdown

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<v Speaker 1>or when you were first affected, what was the supply situation? Like,

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<v Speaker 1>what was your initial reaction. Did you immediately go out,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, as we all did in Hong Kong and

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<v Speaker 1>the very early days of and start buying toilet paper

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<v Speaker 1>and rice and things like that. Did did you have

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<v Speaker 1>time to stock up? The folks over in Putong had

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<v Speaker 1>about a day or two uh notice, and that meant

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<v Speaker 1>we had about a day or two plus four days,

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<v Speaker 1>so we had about six days notice. I've been through.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean I was in shen Jen in and so

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<v Speaker 1>we had a lockdown of sorts in shen Jen But

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<v Speaker 1>that was that was different because we were able to

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<v Speaker 1>leave the house and go out and buy groceries, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>once every two days or something like that. The grocery

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<v Speaker 1>stores were still functioning. Uh, there were still some deliveries

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<v Speaker 1>going on. So it was a cessation of activities, but

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't a full you know, stay inside your apartment community,

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<v Speaker 1>stay inside your apartment all the time. So this time around,

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<v Speaker 1>we bought some stuff. We went out and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>picked up a few things just to make sure we

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<v Speaker 1>had a normal amount of food, but not that much

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, it's only four days originally and it

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<v Speaker 1>didn't seem like, you know, we didn't think at the

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<v Speaker 1>time that it was going to be at ten or

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<v Speaker 1>a fifteen or a twenty day or were you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're at twenty six days now. So we bought, i

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<v Speaker 1>would say, a reasonable amount of food for you know,

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<v Speaker 1>four days of not being able to get your favorite stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's about it. What did they tell you or

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<v Speaker 1>when when when they say, okay, you're going to lock on? Like,

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<v Speaker 1>what did they established as the rules? How are they

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<v Speaker 1>communicated and how are they enforced? So when it came

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<v Speaker 1>to what does a lockdown mean, uh, that was communicated

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<v Speaker 1>really through kind of municipal level announcements. We understood already

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<v Speaker 1>from other buildings and compounds that have had this quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote lockdown that it would mean that they're the barrier

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<v Speaker 1>between their compound and that the street would probably be

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<v Speaker 1>closed and they'd say, hey, you know, you can't come

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<v Speaker 1>by here. There's going to be some type of shelf

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<v Speaker 1>there for delivery drivers and packages to be placed there,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you can come and pick it up. And

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<v Speaker 1>we've got this kind of membrane between your big front

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<v Speaker 1>gate and the outside world. So that's that's what we

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<v Speaker 1>understood lockdown to be at the beginning. That was communicated

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<v Speaker 1>through through you know, municipal level announcements and then kind

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<v Speaker 1>of propagated down to individual community levels, the lowest organization

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<v Speaker 1>level being you know, the neighborhood committee or the local committee.

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<v Speaker 1>So the local committee at that point, UH used kind

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<v Speaker 1>of people that they knew in the building already and

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<v Speaker 1>volunteers and kind of the power of people adding people

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<v Speaker 1>to pull everyone in our building into a we chat group, UH,

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<v Speaker 1>an instant messaging we chat group that we could use

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<v Speaker 1>to notify everybody, you know, at this time on this day,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to be entering into our lockdown. So once

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<v Speaker 1>the group we chat group was set up, how long

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<v Speaker 1>was until people were doing group buying for supplies? How

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<v Speaker 1>did that get started? By the time I was pulled

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<v Speaker 1>into the big group we chat group, we had already

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<v Speaker 1>established a group buying group, a separate group buying group.

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<v Speaker 1>So we wouldn't clutter up the main group. So maybe

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<v Speaker 1>I guess it was probably immediate. Uh, and and so

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<v Speaker 1>we said, yeah, the big group that should be used

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<v Speaker 1>for just announcements about testing and lockdowns and things like that,

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<v Speaker 1>let's let's keep the group buying and all that commercial

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<v Speaker 1>activity in our group buying groups. So it was pretty

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<v Speaker 1>much immediate. But what happened because I've seen conflicting reports

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<v Speaker 1>about what is even possible and people talk about going

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<v Speaker 1>on the various grocery apps and sometimes they say, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's nothing available, there's nothing that can be delivered. I

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<v Speaker 1>can't get through. Sometimes people talk about there is a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit. It's one thing to be able to buy,

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<v Speaker 1>say you want to buy in a group, but what's

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<v Speaker 1>available and what has the process been like? Yeah, there

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<v Speaker 1>was definitely an evolution to that. So remember the first

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<v Speaker 1>couple of days, it was already planned, right, everybody had

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<v Speaker 1>bought four or five days of groceries, and even on

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<v Speaker 1>the second day there was a government parcels. So nobody

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<v Speaker 1>was really freaking out at day two or day three

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<v Speaker 1>or even day four. It was when the cases were

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<v Speaker 1>still rising, say day four, day five, and our lockdown

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<v Speaker 1>had him been lifted, and it had become increasingly hard

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<v Speaker 1>to use the grocery delivery apps because you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>first couple of days, people had stockpiles, they had food

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<v Speaker 1>stored up, they weren't necessarily ordering food that day, so

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<v Speaker 1>you could still get orders through the couple main grocery

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<v Speaker 1>delivery apps that were available. But day four, day five,

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<v Speaker 1>everybody was trying to use them and it was just

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<v Speaker 1>a huge bottleneck. At that same time, most of the

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<v Speaker 1>group by vendors hadn't quite responded to the growing demand yet,

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<v Speaker 1>So at that moment you weren't getting anything through the

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<v Speaker 1>standard grocery delivery apps, and group by offers were pretty limited.

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<v Speaker 1>There's group by platforms out there that are always offering stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>but they couldn't get stuff into Shanghai, and the phenomenon

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<v Speaker 1>of the sho High only group buy offer hadn't really

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<v Speaker 1>emerged yet. So there was a couple of days, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I would say like the sixth, the seventh for us,

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<v Speaker 1>where there was a lot of real concern because it

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<v Speaker 1>just didn't seem like any avenues, any channels we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to bring us food. What is the

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<v Speaker 1>Shanghai only group buying offer? Because I've heard some talk

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<v Speaker 1>of this. There are these different types of group buying

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<v Speaker 1>requests that go out, So you have sort of citywide

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<v Speaker 1>group buying, and then you also have I think fantasy

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<v Speaker 1>buying where people put like long shot items that they

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<v Speaker 1>would really like to have, like burgers from shake Shack

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<v Speaker 1>and things like that. Yeah, I think I think I

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<v Speaker 1>know the uh what you're referencing here. So definitely at

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<v Speaker 1>the beginning, when group buying was becoming prominent, but nobody

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<v Speaker 1>was really sure what was out there, people would say, Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd love to get you know, X item. I'd love

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<v Speaker 1>to get a delivery of shake Shack. Does anybody know

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<v Speaker 1>if shake Shack is still open? Can we buy in

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<v Speaker 1>bulk from shape Shack? And they weren't. This would be

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<v Speaker 1>me by the way, during the lockdown, yeah, Or or

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<v Speaker 1>a more practical one that keeps coming up is like,

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<v Speaker 1>can somebody group buy some like hair salon some guy

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<v Speaker 1>to show up inside our you know, a team of

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<v Speaker 1>guys to show up inside our building and give everybody

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<v Speaker 1>haircuts because we really need it now. Uh. That's that's

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<v Speaker 1>a good fantasy. But no, at that time, Uh, the

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<v Speaker 1>only things that were available for real besides these fantasy

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<v Speaker 1>ones was you would go on for example, will say

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<v Speaker 1>like um, which is a brand underneath pdd pindled big

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese tech platform, and you would go on there and

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<v Speaker 1>you would see all these group buy offers and they

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<v Speaker 1>would say, you know, for noodles or rice or bread

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<v Speaker 1>or wherever. But they couldn't actually get into Shanghai because

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<v Speaker 1>the highway exits leading into Shanghai from outside of the

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<v Speaker 1>city had checkpoints and it was a one way trip.

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<v Speaker 1>If you came into Shanghai, you couldn't leave again because

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<v Speaker 1>it was a city under lockdown. So at that point,

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<v Speaker 1>either you could find a vendor already in the Shanghai

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<v Speaker 1>city limits, or you could find a vendor I guess

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<v Speaker 1>who was willing to make a one way trip. Otherwise

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<v Speaker 1>there was there there were no or very few options

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<v Speaker 1>for Shanghai group buys. Eventually, these big commercial platforms they

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<v Speaker 1>started clearly noting I like quiet Twine would have limited

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<v Speaker 1>only to Shanghai, can deliver within twenty four hours thirty

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<v Speaker 1>six orders of noodles, you know whatever. Uh, They would

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<v Speaker 1>start noting very clearly that it was only available for Shanghai.

0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.040
<v Speaker 1>Those are the big tech platforms. Besides that, you also

0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:26.280
<v Speaker 1>had just hustlers, right, people who knew somebody who knew

0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 1>somebody who has a warehouse out in the suburbs, and

0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:32.200
<v Speaker 1>the factory workers are close by, and the warehouse workers

0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:35.319
<v Speaker 1>are sleeping in the warehouse in tents, and they can

0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.200
<v Speaker 1>get you an order of food if you place an

0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.720
<v Speaker 1>order through each head something like that. That was there's

0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 1>a couple of different models. So how do you coordinate

0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:48.199
<v Speaker 1>with the other households in your complex? And how did

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:51.640
<v Speaker 1>what's the process of Like is someone deputized to actually

0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:55.560
<v Speaker 1>place the order? Like what is that process work? Like? Yeah,

0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.560
<v Speaker 1>there's two different ways to do that. Uh. The the

0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 1>more functionally smooth one, certainly is to have the uh

0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:06.400
<v Speaker 1>the app, the software platform quiet Town or another one

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.520
<v Speaker 1>set up kind of like a shopping cart. They already

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 1>have their shopping cart software set up, and so then

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 1>you go in there, you choose the things that you

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 1>want from the group by vendor, you click check out,

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:19.720
<v Speaker 1>You make sure you write down your address the building

0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:22.120
<v Speaker 1>that you're in, and then you you spam it. You

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.200
<v Speaker 1>send it out into the wheat group and you say, hey, guys,

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:27.280
<v Speaker 1>I just placed an order on this platform. We only

0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.520
<v Speaker 1>need thirty nine more people to place an order on

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 1>this platform. Once we get forty orders, they'll ship it

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.719
<v Speaker 1>all to our address. Please just go by, go by

0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:39.200
<v Speaker 1>through this platform. That's the that's the smooth, technologically enabled way,

0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:44.120
<v Speaker 1>that's more preferable. The less smooth, less technologically enabled way

0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:47.559
<v Speaker 1>is one person me for example, or another group leader.

0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.440
<v Speaker 1>The group master is the single point of contact. You

0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:53.680
<v Speaker 1>contact the vendor, you pay the vendor a lump sum,

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.199
<v Speaker 1>and then you're responsible for individually collecting money from all

0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 1>the people in your building. I've done both ways. Just

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 1>the topic of payment, it is non payment ever an issue?

0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:07.120
<v Speaker 1>Do people say you know, I'm interested and then they

0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 1>don't pay or is it technologically impossible for that to

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.400
<v Speaker 1>happen because everything is going through you know, things like

0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.599
<v Speaker 1>the red Envelope app where where you can make individual

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 1>payments on on we Chat and stuff like that. Well,

0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 1>for the technology enabled ones that are going through the platform,

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:25.960
<v Speaker 1>that's all, you know, all very smooth. If you pay,

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.160
<v Speaker 1>you get what you received, uh, and if the order

0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:32.400
<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean it's minimum requirement, you get refunded, no problem.

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 1>When stuff goes through me. Yeah, we're operating a little

0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 1>bit on the honor system for the first couple of orders,

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.240
<v Speaker 1>I insisted on collecting all the payment first before I

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:44.120
<v Speaker 1>or you know, ninety percent plus of the payments before

0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.360
<v Speaker 1>I felt comfortable making the ball order. But after a

0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:49.680
<v Speaker 1>couple of times of it all working out, okay, I

0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.880
<v Speaker 1>felt more comfortable just kind of putting my neck out

0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:54.400
<v Speaker 1>there and going out first and placing a big order

0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:57.000
<v Speaker 1>for like a thousand bucks of apples or something, and

0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:59.160
<v Speaker 1>then counting on the fact that my neighbors are going

0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 1>to pay me back. Now, of course they might not,

0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 1>but it's an enclosed environment. We're all neighbors. We all

0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 1>know each other. Now, you know where they live? Yeah, yeah, exactly,

0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:10.960
<v Speaker 1>right down to the room number, because I'm delivering the

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.320
<v Speaker 1>apples to it. Uh so, yeah, it's it's on the

0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 1>honor system for that second one. And we haven't had

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 1>any real problems. Well, what is the you know, so

0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:21.760
<v Speaker 1>obviously for any of this to work, there have to

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 1>be individuals that aren't in lockdown and people who can

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 1>make the deliveries, and people who can operate the factories

0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 1>or the you know, the grocery delivery centers. You know. Obviously,

0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.520
<v Speaker 1>in the US, when there were cities that had quasi lockdowns.

0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:37.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we never had like real lockdowns here, but

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:39.840
<v Speaker 1>there were people who are designated it, you know, the

0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:45.240
<v Speaker 1>so called essential workers. How has the government they're sort

0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.520
<v Speaker 1>of established, who can even be in a position to

0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:52.080
<v Speaker 1>go around the city and make deliveries? Yeah. Sure, so

0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 1>at the beginning, it was almost no one. That's why

0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 1>we ran into the the issues that we did at

0:15:56.760 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 1>the very beginning, where we had an extremely last mile

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:06.520
<v Speaker 1>delivery centric model, right, just tens of thousands of last

0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.280
<v Speaker 1>mile delivery drivers all pretty much all removed from the

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:11.880
<v Speaker 1>street or maybe just working on a skeleton crew of

0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.840
<v Speaker 1>five percent, three percent something like that. As the days

0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:18.280
<v Speaker 1>went on and it became apparent that this was going

0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:21.960
<v Speaker 1>to last longer and that the the last mile delivery

0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 1>guys had become a huge sticking point in the system. Uh,

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:29.400
<v Speaker 1>the major tech platforms, your Jingdong, your Ilama, your your

0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:32.840
<v Speaker 1>Ma Twine. They recalled lots of workers who were previously

0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.720
<v Speaker 1>in lockdown with their families and said, please come back

0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.880
<v Speaker 1>to work. We'll give you benefits and perks and overtime

0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:41.680
<v Speaker 1>pay and you can stay in a hotel and you

0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 1>know whatever perks they promised them. They called in drivers

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.400
<v Speaker 1>from other provinces as well to try to bolster their workforce.

0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:51.400
<v Speaker 1>From the management side, I know these guys are required

0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:55.040
<v Speaker 1>to get a test every day and maybe also an

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 1>rapid antigen test once or twice throughout the day, and

0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.280
<v Speaker 1>they have what's called a punic and junk like a

0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:07.440
<v Speaker 1>travel permit specifically for logistics drivers and delivery drivers that

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.879
<v Speaker 1>you need to maintain a green a green code on

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.080
<v Speaker 1>so that you can keep driving around all day. In

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.040
<v Speaker 1>the last couple of days, I know that they've just

0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.920
<v Speaker 1>mixed up the system for that and they are acquiring

0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:20.200
<v Speaker 1>a different system for the delivery drivers, and a lot

0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.119
<v Speaker 1>of the guys didn't get it updated in time, and

0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.960
<v Speaker 1>so today we heard some stories of drivers being turned

0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.919
<v Speaker 1>away from compounds because they showed up the gate they

0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:29.919
<v Speaker 1>didn't have the new code set up yet, and the

0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, the gate guard said sorry, we've got orders.

0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:50.160
<v Speaker 1>Go go away, come back with your new code. In general,

0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 1>what sort of adaptation have you seen from businesses, because

0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:58.159
<v Speaker 1>you know, anecdotally I have seen some talk of small

0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:00.919
<v Speaker 1>scale fruit sellers, you know, type of people who used

0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:06.120
<v Speaker 1>to have stands outside on sidewalks, maybe those converting into

0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:11.399
<v Speaker 1>a pure sort of web based selling model and things

0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:14.760
<v Speaker 1>like that. Have you seen the major platforms and the

0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:19.400
<v Speaker 1>small scale grocery shops have those adapted to the new situation.

0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.960
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, absolutely, with with different channels and different products.

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:27.280
<v Speaker 1>So for a couple of examples, you know my my

0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:29.920
<v Speaker 1>neighborhood coffee shop right across the street. I used to

0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:31.960
<v Speaker 1>go there and get a latte almost every day. Now

0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:35.080
<v Speaker 1>they do bulk orders of fresh milk and coffee beans.

0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:38.280
<v Speaker 1>And I assume they're acting as a front for one

0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:41.480
<v Speaker 1>of their vendors, one of their suppliers, right they you know, Hey,

0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:44.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm now the last mild delivery point. Uh let

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:46.520
<v Speaker 1>me know if you need a bull quarter of thirty

0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:49.199
<v Speaker 1>six bags of coffee beans, and I'll set that up

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:52.000
<v Speaker 1>for you from my vendor. So that's one example. At

0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:56.280
<v Speaker 1>least he's still doing stuff related to his actual business. Others,

0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, you'd go on on matoon delivery and you'd

0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 1>open up what used to be a crayfish restaurant or

0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:04.960
<v Speaker 1>uh you know, ah, you know, some skewers or something

0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 1>like that, and you open up and they're selling eggs

0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:12.240
<v Speaker 1>and packages of fruit and and fresh fresh fresh pork

0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:15.760
<v Speaker 1>or something. Right like they've got totally different business models now,

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.119
<v Speaker 1>and they're just maintaining the fact that they still have

0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:20.320
<v Speaker 1>a storefront. They still have a listing on the May

0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:22.960
<v Speaker 1>to one delivery app, or they'll just have a product

0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:27.080
<v Speaker 1>listing that says doing offline business only. Please add this

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 1>phone number and we'll discuss on we chat what we

0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:32.080
<v Speaker 1>have for sale. They're doing everything they can to try

0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:34.120
<v Speaker 1>to get the message out what they have for sale,

0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.960
<v Speaker 1>even if it's totally unrelated to what their business used

0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:40.879
<v Speaker 1>to be. Yeah, that definitely happened here during spring of

0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:44.760
<v Speaker 1>You see restaurants, it seemed like a mix like you'd

0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:49.359
<v Speaker 1>see restaurants essentially just selling groceries. You will also had

0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:55.400
<v Speaker 1>commercial food wholesalers whose customers were typically restaurants, uh suddenly

0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:58.080
<v Speaker 1>offering retail and so like you could buy like you know,

0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:01.080
<v Speaker 1>hundreds of pounds of like duck fat or something something

0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:04.639
<v Speaker 1>that would typically go to a restaurant. I'm curious also,

0:20:04.760 --> 0:20:07.399
<v Speaker 1>like how a little bit more about how the informal

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:11.000
<v Speaker 1>buying on when you have to use uh weed chat

0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:12.879
<v Speaker 1>or you just have to get a message out to

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:15.840
<v Speaker 1>someone like usually say, like the people sort of like

0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:18.600
<v Speaker 1>hustling or scraunging things up from a warehouse, Like how

0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:21.280
<v Speaker 1>do you like find those people and like build those

0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:25.880
<v Speaker 1>connections and how how does the weed chat based commerce work? Um? Right,

0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.080
<v Speaker 1>So the wee chat based stuff, it comes from a

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:31.840
<v Speaker 1>variety of channels. Sometimes it's a friend of a friend,

0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:35.160
<v Speaker 1>somebody says, hey, this guy is selling vegetables. Just add

0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:37.960
<v Speaker 1>him and ask him what's going on. Or maybe it's

0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:40.680
<v Speaker 1>somebody in your neighborhood. It's, you know, generally a good

0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:45.080
<v Speaker 1>practice as you become a frequent guest of various businesses

0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:46.800
<v Speaker 1>in your neighborhood to get to know the people that

0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 1>own them, the local vegetable market seller or your local

0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:52.720
<v Speaker 1>coffee guy or something like that. So if you had

0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:56.880
<v Speaker 1>those in your wee chat already, obviously lean on that. Uh.

0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.960
<v Speaker 1>And then you know the channel I just mentioned where

0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of these stores they maintain an online listing.

0:21:04.160 --> 0:21:07.080
<v Speaker 1>They've taken all their products off of the shopping cart

0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:09.879
<v Speaker 1>software except for one, and it's just a picture that

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.359
<v Speaker 1>says to discuss what products we have, please add my

0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:15.320
<v Speaker 1>wee ch at and then they give you their phone number. Uh.

0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:18.120
<v Speaker 1>So that's that's I would say, those are the three

0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:20.200
<v Speaker 1>main ways where you can try to find somebody who's

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:23.040
<v Speaker 1>hustling and has some stuff to sell. What items have

0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:25.920
<v Speaker 1>been hardest for you to get hold of? Um? At

0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:29.639
<v Speaker 1>the beginning, it was all all essentials, and so anything

0:21:29.680 --> 0:21:33.040
<v Speaker 1>non essential was really hard uh And that included everything

0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:37.480
<v Speaker 1>from like dairy products besides milk uh two sweets to

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:42.000
<v Speaker 1>SODA's things like that. And then as more vendors got

0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:45.240
<v Speaker 1>into the game, these all became available and you could

0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:47.520
<v Speaker 1>buy them. You were you were really only limited by

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.000
<v Speaker 1>whether or not you could scrounge together enough people to

0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:51.919
<v Speaker 1>put together a group by I mean, that's always going

0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:54.360
<v Speaker 1>to be a challenge. At this point, now, I would say,

0:21:54.400 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 1>almost everything that I could think of that I want

0:21:57.640 --> 0:22:01.600
<v Speaker 1>to order, I can order, or I could have ordered

0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:03.600
<v Speaker 1>if I could have found forty nine more people to

0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:05.320
<v Speaker 1>order it with me. And maybe you know that's the

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:07.679
<v Speaker 1>limiting factor. But there's there's a vendor out there for

0:22:07.720 --> 0:22:10.200
<v Speaker 1>almost everything I can imagine now at this point, So

0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:13.879
<v Speaker 1>it has healed to a significant degree. So what is

0:22:13.920 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 1>it what I mean, setting aside the actual like aspect

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:20.800
<v Speaker 1>of like ordering foods and other like basic necessities, can

0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 1>you just like walk through a little bit about like

0:22:23.119 --> 0:22:26.000
<v Speaker 1>what your day to day life is like? Do you

0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:28.040
<v Speaker 1>are you able to get outside? Do you have space?

0:22:28.880 --> 0:22:31.240
<v Speaker 1>H is there room or to walk around? Like? What

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.320
<v Speaker 1>is or how? What are people doing? Right? So we've

0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:36.159
<v Speaker 1>had we've had a case in our building in the

0:22:36.240 --> 0:22:39.680
<v Speaker 1>last seven days, which puts us into the the highest

0:22:39.800 --> 0:22:43.879
<v Speaker 1>level of of secure zone controlled zone in in theory,

0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:47.000
<v Speaker 1>we're not even supposed to leave our doors, uh, to

0:22:47.119 --> 0:22:50.320
<v Speaker 1>the doors to our apartments, but hours like, I think

0:22:50.359 --> 0:22:53.399
<v Speaker 1>a lot of other buildings have been operating that on

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:56.399
<v Speaker 1>the Honor code as well, because I still see people

0:22:56.440 --> 0:22:59.359
<v Speaker 1>going downstairs. There's nothing there's no security camera at my

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:02.040
<v Speaker 1>door anything like that. I can still go outside and

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:05.800
<v Speaker 1>go downstairs. And uh, if I spent a lot of

0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 1>time downstairs hanging out out in the courtyard or something,

0:23:08.840 --> 0:23:11.199
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure my neighbors would have something to say about me,

0:23:11.320 --> 0:23:13.840
<v Speaker 1>because we're all supposed to be staying inside our apartments,

0:23:13.840 --> 0:23:17.400
<v Speaker 1>but there's no actual restriction on, you know, walking down

0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:21.479
<v Speaker 1>and walking around. I'm a volunteer for receiving our delivery,

0:23:21.480 --> 0:23:23.240
<v Speaker 1>so I get out a lot already. I get to

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:24.800
<v Speaker 1>breathe the fresh air, and I get to spend a

0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:27.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of time outdoors. Other people, you know, they gotta

0:23:27.680 --> 0:23:30.119
<v Speaker 1>walk their dogs or they just want to get some

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:32.919
<v Speaker 1>fresh air. I've seen people going out and spending some

0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:37.040
<v Speaker 1>time outside. I know other apartment compounds and other apartment

0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:42.199
<v Speaker 1>communities have differing levels of stringency when it comes to this,

0:23:42.280 --> 0:23:44.600
<v Speaker 1>and in some places are very strict about not leaving

0:23:44.600 --> 0:23:50.199
<v Speaker 1>your door at all. What's your sense of the official

0:23:50.320 --> 0:23:55.480
<v Speaker 1>data that's been out there around cases and supply availability

0:23:55.560 --> 0:23:59.880
<v Speaker 1>and maybe fatalities as well, versus what you've personally ex

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:03.120
<v Speaker 1>varienced and seen on the ground, Because of course, when

0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 1>it comes to China, there are always questions and sometimes

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:10.440
<v Speaker 1>doubts about the validity of the official data. So I'm

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:14.760
<v Speaker 1>curious how your personal experience stacks up against what's been

0:24:14.920 --> 0:24:18.560
<v Speaker 1>officially reported. I think, you know, I can only speak

0:24:18.600 --> 0:24:22.160
<v Speaker 1>to my own experience. Right What we've seen is cases

0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:24.639
<v Speaker 1>that we knew a d per, we're in our building,

0:24:25.520 --> 0:24:28.240
<v Speaker 1>we knew were ad percent, we're in our compound. They

0:24:28.320 --> 0:24:30.920
<v Speaker 1>showed up, but they took some time, you know, four

0:24:31.000 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 1>or five six days between when we knew that case

0:24:33.800 --> 0:24:37.119
<v Speaker 1>appeared and we thought that person had been evacuated from

0:24:37.160 --> 0:24:39.879
<v Speaker 1>the building and brought to a medical treatment center, and

0:24:39.960 --> 0:24:44.000
<v Speaker 1>when that case appeared on the official ledger of of

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:47.600
<v Speaker 1>our neighborhood of our district or subdistrict. So right now,

0:24:47.640 --> 0:24:49.200
<v Speaker 1>what I can say is, I know there's a lag

0:24:49.640 --> 0:24:54.640
<v Speaker 1>between when cases appear in real life and when that

0:24:54.920 --> 0:24:58.560
<v Speaker 1>individual case ends up making its way into the big

0:24:58.640 --> 0:25:01.720
<v Speaker 1>numbers the official data. Certainly, at the beginning, I think

0:25:01.840 --> 0:25:05.040
<v Speaker 1>based on what we had seen coming out of statistically

0:25:05.160 --> 0:25:07.679
<v Speaker 1>from other locations that had on the Crown breakouts, it

0:25:07.680 --> 0:25:10.000
<v Speaker 1>looks like we were looked like we were seeing a

0:25:10.119 --> 0:25:14.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of cases with an incompatible number of severe critical

0:25:14.720 --> 0:25:17.760
<v Speaker 1>cases and mortality. I would say in the last you know,

0:25:17.800 --> 0:25:20.080
<v Speaker 1>I haven't been checking the numbers every single day, but

0:25:20.119 --> 0:25:22.920
<v Speaker 1>certainly I know in the last few days those numbers,

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:27.679
<v Speaker 1>unfortunately have been have been rising. And will they end

0:25:27.760 --> 0:25:31.600
<v Speaker 1>up you know, somewhat statistically, uh, matching to what we've

0:25:31.600 --> 0:25:34.800
<v Speaker 1>seen from other locations, I don't know, but certainly I

0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:38.040
<v Speaker 1>think there's been a lag between what we see and

0:25:38.040 --> 0:25:40.560
<v Speaker 1>what we observe and when it, you know, eventually shows

0:25:40.640 --> 0:25:44.359
<v Speaker 1>up in the data. So I mean, bigger picture, I

0:25:44.400 --> 0:25:48.600
<v Speaker 1>think that in the US observing um, what's going on

0:25:48.920 --> 0:25:53.600
<v Speaker 1>in Shanghai, I would say the overwhelming perception is sort

0:25:53.640 --> 0:25:56.680
<v Speaker 1>of incredulity, Like I feel like people just don't get

0:25:56.680 --> 0:25:59.000
<v Speaker 1>it or they don't believe it, and they like, what

0:25:59.080 --> 0:26:01.760
<v Speaker 1>am I missing? Because none of this makes any sense.

0:26:02.160 --> 0:26:06.240
<v Speaker 1>This is so economically damaging, it would appear it's so

0:26:06.680 --> 0:26:14.119
<v Speaker 1>psychologically damaging, it's socially damaging. It seems medically implausible, given

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:18.000
<v Speaker 1>the virility of some of the latest variants, to even

0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:22.199
<v Speaker 1>have a COVID zero policy. I think people are just

0:26:22.240 --> 0:26:25.000
<v Speaker 1>like scratching their heads. They don't have strong opinions per se.

0:26:25.000 --> 0:26:27.719
<v Speaker 1>They're just really baffled. So what would you say, like,

0:26:27.960 --> 0:26:31.600
<v Speaker 1>how do you perceive like the goal here, the strategy

0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:33.720
<v Speaker 1>and sort of like what what victory looks like or

0:26:33.760 --> 0:26:35.600
<v Speaker 1>what the process looks like? How would you describe it

0:26:35.600 --> 0:26:38.359
<v Speaker 1>to someone? Oh? I mean, I think the the image

0:26:38.359 --> 0:26:41.639
<v Speaker 1>of what victory looks like in an ideal world is

0:26:41.640 --> 0:26:45.320
<v Speaker 1>pretty clear. It's it's something like what Shenjin did last month. Right,

0:26:45.760 --> 0:26:48.200
<v Speaker 1>You have a few cases, they pop up, You locked

0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:52.359
<v Speaker 1>down tighter than a clam, You have excellent local logistics

0:26:52.359 --> 0:26:56.199
<v Speaker 1>and apparently pretty strong local government support. Everybody puts in

0:26:56.240 --> 0:26:59.320
<v Speaker 1>their time, and then you re emerge with your case

0:26:59.320 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 1>load almost our adicated. And you know, I know the

0:27:01.800 --> 0:27:04.119
<v Speaker 1>folks in Shenjen are still having you know, a pretty

0:27:04.400 --> 0:27:07.320
<v Speaker 1>hefty testing requirement. They're testing every two or three days

0:27:07.400 --> 0:27:10.320
<v Speaker 1>to make sure they maintain that. But I imagine that's

0:27:10.359 --> 0:27:15.359
<v Speaker 1>like the platonic ideal for how Chinese city pursuing it's

0:27:15.359 --> 0:27:21.160
<v Speaker 1>its current uh COVID policy emerges from a localized municipal

0:27:21.200 --> 0:27:24.480
<v Speaker 1>COVID outbreak. Now people are going to be analyzing to

0:27:24.520 --> 0:27:28.159
<v Speaker 1>death whether or not Shanghai couldn't do it because of

0:27:28.240 --> 0:27:31.280
<v Speaker 1>local government or because they moved too late, or because

0:27:31.359 --> 0:27:35.520
<v Speaker 1>they were too liberal or whatever it is. Uh. You know,

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:38.199
<v Speaker 1>it's clear that shen Jen was the golden standard, and

0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:41.200
<v Speaker 1>Shanghai has very has missed that by a long shot.

0:27:41.480 --> 0:27:45.400
<v Speaker 1>So you can understand the desire to achieve something like

0:27:45.480 --> 0:27:49.399
<v Speaker 1>shen Jen. Once it's apparent that the you know, the

0:27:49.400 --> 0:27:52.119
<v Speaker 1>window has closed and the barn door is open and

0:27:52.160 --> 0:27:54.640
<v Speaker 1>the horses run away or whatever metaphor you want to use,

0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:57.639
<v Speaker 1>then the question is, okay, is it is it a

0:27:57.680 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 1>reasonable ask to try to get back to what Shenjen achieved?

0:28:02.560 --> 0:28:04.920
<v Speaker 1>Opportunity cost? What are we looking at now? Hey, I'm

0:28:04.960 --> 0:28:09.000
<v Speaker 1>not an epidemiologist or a biologist or a public health expert,

0:28:09.119 --> 0:28:11.879
<v Speaker 1>so I don't have strong opinions on what will or

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:14.800
<v Speaker 1>won't work. I think I do understand what they're hoping for,

0:28:15.160 --> 0:28:17.640
<v Speaker 1>and I think it made sense when you were considering

0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:20.840
<v Speaker 1>a Shenjen like scenario. Now that we're in the scenario

0:28:20.960 --> 0:28:23.800
<v Speaker 1>that Shanghai is in, I don't know what they're supposed

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:25.679
<v Speaker 1>to do. I certainly hope somebody with a lot of

0:28:25.720 --> 0:28:30.639
<v Speaker 1>expertise in that field is considering the different, uh the

0:28:30.640 --> 0:28:33.240
<v Speaker 1>different results we've seen so far from Shanghai, and and

0:28:33.480 --> 0:28:37.919
<v Speaker 1>wondering is is a course correction necessary? Does it have

0:28:38.000 --> 0:28:39.959
<v Speaker 1>to be repeated to every other Chinese city that has

0:28:40.000 --> 0:28:42.320
<v Speaker 1>an omnicon breakout after this, or is this a Shanghai

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 1>specific policy. I don't know, but I certainly hope somebody

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:48.720
<v Speaker 1>is thinking about it. What's your sense of the sort

0:28:48.760 --> 0:28:52.360
<v Speaker 1>of broad mood in Shanghai at the moment and support

0:28:52.640 --> 0:28:57.000
<v Speaker 1>for these policies, because, again to Joe's point, if you

0:28:57.040 --> 0:29:01.640
<v Speaker 1>talk to people in the US or in Europe, maybe

0:29:01.680 --> 0:29:05.680
<v Speaker 1>they hear about these very strict lockdowns and they don't

0:29:05.680 --> 0:29:08.239
<v Speaker 1>really get it. They're sort of incredulous about all of it.

0:29:08.320 --> 0:29:11.080
<v Speaker 1>But on the other hand, in China, she President Shi

0:29:11.200 --> 0:29:14.720
<v Speaker 1>Jinping has been very careful about pitching this as a

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:19.000
<v Speaker 1>way to save lives and saying explicitly that they're doing

0:29:19.040 --> 0:29:21.280
<v Speaker 1>this in a way that's different to what the West

0:29:21.280 --> 0:29:25.480
<v Speaker 1>has done, where they're willing to accept fatalities in exchange

0:29:25.640 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 1>for you know, less harsh lockdowns and more individual freedoms.

0:29:30.240 --> 0:29:33.320
<v Speaker 1>So how how do you see that portion of it

0:29:33.360 --> 0:29:36.200
<v Speaker 1>at the moment? What's the mood? Like? Yeah? I mean,

0:29:36.280 --> 0:29:38.800
<v Speaker 1>and again, if you if you do it as effectively

0:29:38.960 --> 0:29:42.760
<v Speaker 1>and efficiently as Shenjen did, you have all nothing but takers.

0:29:42.800 --> 0:29:45.400
<v Speaker 1>Everybody gets that social contract, they say, we give up

0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:47.440
<v Speaker 1>our freedoms for a week or two, we get to

0:29:47.560 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 1>squash everything, and then we go back to a fairly

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 1>high quality life like what we had before. Certainly when

0:29:54.680 --> 0:29:59.160
<v Speaker 1>this drags on the way it has for for Shanghai. Uh,

0:29:59.240 --> 0:30:01.920
<v Speaker 1>what I've been seeing and hearing is that even people

0:30:01.960 --> 0:30:07.680
<v Speaker 1>who are generally I would say pretty supportive of China's

0:30:07.680 --> 0:30:12.240
<v Speaker 1>COVID policy over the last two years are saying, well,

0:30:13.720 --> 0:30:16.640
<v Speaker 1>is Shanghai an exception? If Shanghai is an exception, how

0:30:16.680 --> 0:30:19.200
<v Speaker 1>can we make it the only exception? Because people are

0:30:19.240 --> 0:30:21.280
<v Speaker 1>bummed out here. I think I think that's fair to

0:30:21.280 --> 0:30:25.680
<v Speaker 1>say that the people in Shanghai are are low energy

0:30:25.720 --> 0:30:30.760
<v Speaker 1>they're still they understand the the intent, and they're still

0:30:30.760 --> 0:30:35.080
<v Speaker 1>supportive of the intent. But increasingly, I feel, at least

0:30:35.120 --> 0:30:38.080
<v Speaker 1>from the people around me, the people I see in

0:30:38.440 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 1>my building we chat group, things like that people are

0:30:42.360 --> 0:30:45.640
<v Speaker 1>losing I don't want to say losing enthusiasm for the

0:30:45.720 --> 0:30:48.680
<v Speaker 1>overall cause, because I think people don't really think like that.

0:30:49.000 --> 0:30:51.280
<v Speaker 1>I think there's and I'm just going to go on

0:30:51.320 --> 0:30:54.240
<v Speaker 1>a ramble tangent here, but I don't think that the

0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:57.280
<v Speaker 1>people in the midst of a of a lockdown are

0:30:57.320 --> 0:31:01.640
<v Speaker 1>really the ones analyzing this by saying, ah, should China

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:04.560
<v Speaker 1>change its policy on zero COVID now, giving even what

0:31:04.560 --> 0:31:07.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm going through. No, they're just saying I'm sick of

0:31:07.120 --> 0:31:11.360
<v Speaker 1>testing all the time, and I'm sick of being confined

0:31:11.400 --> 0:31:14.600
<v Speaker 1>to my home. And if you told me zero COVID

0:31:14.680 --> 0:31:16.680
<v Speaker 1>means we get to do it like Shenjen, I love

0:31:16.760 --> 0:31:19.479
<v Speaker 1>zero COVID, and if you told me zero COVID means this.

0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:21.880
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how I feel about this, but I

0:31:22.320 --> 0:31:26.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't think people are necessarily processing it as like, uh, oh, yeah,

0:31:26.600 --> 0:31:28.680
<v Speaker 1>we've got to change the way we think about this now.

0:31:28.720 --> 0:31:30.479
<v Speaker 1>I think most people are just thinking about it on

0:31:30.520 --> 0:31:33.120
<v Speaker 1>a daily life basis, and I would say, yeah, they're

0:31:33.920 --> 0:31:37.160
<v Speaker 1>they're sick of it, they're sick of being inside, they're

0:31:37.160 --> 0:31:40.920
<v Speaker 1>sick of whatever this is. And if you want to

0:31:40.920 --> 0:31:42.960
<v Speaker 1>rebrand it, if you want to call it something else,

0:31:43.120 --> 0:31:45.400
<v Speaker 1>if you want to say this is dynamic zero COVID

0:31:45.640 --> 0:31:49.680
<v Speaker 1>or now this is uh some version of living with it,

0:31:49.720 --> 0:31:51.760
<v Speaker 1>but we're still trying to get back to zero. However

0:31:51.840 --> 0:31:54.520
<v Speaker 1>you brand it, just like, make this better, make my

0:31:54.600 --> 0:31:56.560
<v Speaker 1>life right now better, and then we can talk about

0:31:56.560 --> 0:31:59.400
<v Speaker 1>how you label it, David, what are people doing who

0:31:59.440 --> 0:32:01.800
<v Speaker 1>don't have jobs that can be done on a computer.

0:32:02.280 --> 0:32:05.960
<v Speaker 1>I've got to imagine they're surviving on the largess of

0:32:06.040 --> 0:32:09.200
<v Speaker 1>their employers if possible. If not, then they might be

0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:12.240
<v Speaker 1>cutting into their savings. I mean, I'm a pretty white

0:32:12.240 --> 0:32:14.040
<v Speaker 1>collar guy, and most of the people I know are

0:32:14.040 --> 0:32:16.960
<v Speaker 1>white collar too, so we're all working from home. I

0:32:17.000 --> 0:32:19.680
<v Speaker 1>know shen Jin had some pretty strict policies back in

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:24.440
<v Speaker 1>when I was there about whether or not employers were

0:32:24.480 --> 0:32:29.640
<v Speaker 1>allowed to dismiss their employees because they weren't working, and

0:32:29.680 --> 0:32:32.400
<v Speaker 1>what kind of protections were in place for them. And

0:32:32.720 --> 0:32:35.200
<v Speaker 1>I haven't seen or heard anything about whether there's something

0:32:35.200 --> 0:32:54.680
<v Speaker 1>equivalent right now, and so David, we would be remiss

0:32:54.680 --> 0:32:56.760
<v Speaker 1>if we had you on and if we didn't talk

0:32:56.920 --> 0:33:00.560
<v Speaker 1>a little bit about electricity in China as well, because

0:33:00.600 --> 0:33:03.200
<v Speaker 1>this is your day to day job. Speaking of jobs,

0:33:03.920 --> 0:33:06.760
<v Speaker 1>I want to ask what's your sense of what's happening

0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:10.920
<v Speaker 1>with Chinese infrastructure spending at the moment um. And I

0:33:10.960 --> 0:33:14.360
<v Speaker 1>know you're very interested in renewables, but we did have

0:33:14.560 --> 0:33:19.920
<v Speaker 1>GDP figures released relatively recently showing a slowdown in growth,

0:33:19.960 --> 0:33:22.840
<v Speaker 1>which is something you might expect going into lockdown, although

0:33:23.000 --> 0:33:26.480
<v Speaker 1>the figures actually didn't take that most recent period into account.

0:33:27.000 --> 0:33:29.920
<v Speaker 1>But do you feel like there's a big wave of

0:33:30.000 --> 0:33:33.640
<v Speaker 1>fresh infrastructure spending coming to try to offset some of

0:33:33.680 --> 0:33:37.360
<v Speaker 1>these lockdowns or is it basically impossible to do these

0:33:37.400 --> 0:33:41.880
<v Speaker 1>projects given the current situation. Well, I'll say if we

0:33:41.920 --> 0:33:46.400
<v Speaker 1>talk about offsetting sluggish GDP growth with big infrastructure projects,

0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:50.320
<v Speaker 1>that gets into macroeconomic questions and I tend to avoid

0:33:50.320 --> 0:33:52.800
<v Speaker 1>those because I think that's black magic. But I will

0:33:52.840 --> 0:33:57.640
<v Speaker 1>say from an individual microeconomic perspective, there's massive demand for

0:33:57.840 --> 0:34:04.560
<v Speaker 1>renewable electricity in a government plans for capacity of of

0:34:04.640 --> 0:34:07.760
<v Speaker 1>power and that it has to be green power. Renewable

0:34:07.760 --> 0:34:12.160
<v Speaker 1>power are are staggering, and that that the cart would

0:34:12.160 --> 0:34:14.239
<v Speaker 1>pull the horse in that sense where we would say

0:34:14.280 --> 0:34:17.640
<v Speaker 1>we need to pull up GDP figures. So we're going

0:34:17.680 --> 0:34:20.920
<v Speaker 1>to increase infrastructure spending. I don't know if that's the

0:34:21.000 --> 0:34:23.160
<v Speaker 1>right way i'd think about it. I think of it

0:34:23.200 --> 0:34:25.880
<v Speaker 1>in terms of we are definitely going to build a

0:34:25.880 --> 0:34:29.359
<v Speaker 1>lot of green energy, a lot of infrastructure associated green

0:34:29.440 --> 0:34:31.920
<v Speaker 1>energy because we want it, because we need it, and

0:34:31.960 --> 0:34:34.799
<v Speaker 1>then maybe that becomes a thing that actually props up

0:34:35.080 --> 0:34:37.880
<v Speaker 1>g d P, but not necessarily know the other direction

0:34:38.200 --> 0:34:43.359
<v Speaker 1>the on the microeconomic level, so many international corporations and

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:47.719
<v Speaker 1>grid companies and state owned enterprises, everybody has these mandates

0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:51.080
<v Speaker 1>to consume a ton of renewable electricity, and all of

0:34:51.120 --> 0:34:54.080
<v Speaker 1>the grid infrastructure and all the power plants and everything

0:34:54.120 --> 0:34:59.520
<v Speaker 1>that goes into making those individual microeconomic needs achievable and

0:34:59.600 --> 0:35:02.640
<v Speaker 1>meatable means building a lot of stuff. So I guess

0:35:02.840 --> 0:35:04.960
<v Speaker 1>if you look at it from that perspective, yeah, sure,

0:35:05.040 --> 0:35:07.879
<v Speaker 1>a lot of infrastructure spending coming in to be able

0:35:07.920 --> 0:35:12.560
<v Speaker 1>to meet the green development goals is uh just you know,

0:35:12.600 --> 0:35:15.920
<v Speaker 1>in terms of total energy demand this sort of acute moment,

0:35:15.960 --> 0:35:19.759
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we've seen global oil prices um well, they're

0:35:19.760 --> 0:35:23.000
<v Speaker 1>still very high, but they've come down from recent highs.

0:35:23.160 --> 0:35:26.480
<v Speaker 1>In part, it would seem very likely because of this

0:35:26.640 --> 0:35:31.799
<v Speaker 1>collapse of Chinese demand for gasoline and other petroleum products Shaw,

0:35:31.920 --> 0:35:34.319
<v Speaker 1>so many people are stuck inside their homes. Like what

0:35:34.400 --> 0:35:37.520
<v Speaker 1>do you view as uh, the sort of the sort

0:35:37.560 --> 0:35:41.640
<v Speaker 1>of that the size of the current shock to energy

0:35:41.680 --> 0:35:45.400
<v Speaker 1>demand from these changing consumption patterns and just changing patterns

0:35:45.440 --> 0:35:51.279
<v Speaker 1>while the lockdown is happening. Well, certainly if the lockdown

0:35:51.400 --> 0:35:54.719
<v Speaker 1>right now is just Shanghai, So Shanghai has twenty five

0:35:54.760 --> 0:35:56.640
<v Speaker 1>million people, which is actually just a drop in the

0:35:56.680 --> 0:35:59.120
<v Speaker 1>bucket for China if you see, and there's a couple

0:35:59.239 --> 0:36:01.480
<v Speaker 1>other places that are under lockdown, but most of the

0:36:01.520 --> 0:36:04.200
<v Speaker 1>country is is business as usual right now. So we're

0:36:04.239 --> 0:36:08.960
<v Speaker 1>for seeing reduced energy demand. It's probably more macro economic stuff, uh,

0:36:09.400 --> 0:36:13.080
<v Speaker 1>more long term macroeconomic stuff. There might be uh kind

0:36:13.080 --> 0:36:19.399
<v Speaker 1>of domestic consumption instability or domestic consumption kind of uncertainty

0:36:19.520 --> 0:36:21.440
<v Speaker 1>that would lead to us a bit of a slowdown.

0:36:22.000 --> 0:36:24.719
<v Speaker 1>But you know, Shanghai individually, I don't think is it's

0:36:24.760 --> 0:36:27.440
<v Speaker 1>going to be driving that we're gonna have to leave

0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:31.800
<v Speaker 1>it there. I hope that things start to improve for

0:36:31.800 --> 0:36:35.000
<v Speaker 1>for you and your neighbors relatively soon. But thank you

0:36:35.040 --> 0:36:37.120
<v Speaker 1>so much for coming on all thoughts and walking us

0:36:37.120 --> 0:36:41.200
<v Speaker 1>through everything that's been going on in Shanghai. Really appreciate it. Yeah, sure,

0:36:41.280 --> 0:36:58.000
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me, so, Joe. One thing I was

0:36:58.080 --> 0:37:02.759
<v Speaker 1>thinking about through all of the was how impossible it

0:37:02.800 --> 0:37:05.600
<v Speaker 1>would be to do this in the US, not just

0:37:05.680 --> 0:37:10.600
<v Speaker 1>because I think people would sort of intuitively revolt against it,

0:37:10.640 --> 0:37:13.200
<v Speaker 1>but also because I don't really think we have the

0:37:13.239 --> 0:37:18.200
<v Speaker 1>technology or the platforms to arrange things like this. Certainly,

0:37:18.200 --> 0:37:21.160
<v Speaker 1>like imagine, well, I guess you could Venmo payments, but

0:37:21.600 --> 0:37:23.560
<v Speaker 1>it just seems like it would be a massive hassle.

0:37:24.000 --> 0:37:28.080
<v Speaker 1>Now the software wouldn't exist for like the group purchasing

0:37:28.320 --> 0:37:32.160
<v Speaker 1>or group shopping cards. And I remember, of course, you know,

0:37:32.200 --> 0:37:34.960
<v Speaker 1>one of the first conversations we had over two years

0:37:35.000 --> 0:37:38.759
<v Speaker 1>ago with with Dan Wong and some of the other

0:37:38.800 --> 0:37:41.880
<v Speaker 1>technologies that David was just talking about, like you know,

0:37:41.920 --> 0:37:45.600
<v Speaker 1>the idea of like issuing people a different colored basically

0:37:45.600 --> 0:37:49.360
<v Speaker 1>passport or a different type of license to be out.

0:37:49.800 --> 0:37:51.839
<v Speaker 1>You know, we would never have the sort of like

0:37:52.360 --> 0:37:55.399
<v Speaker 1>agility on a sort of like government or neighborhood level

0:37:55.480 --> 0:37:57.680
<v Speaker 1>to like issue something like that. So fast and have

0:37:57.800 --> 0:38:01.040
<v Speaker 1>people check it for better or worse. Um. I think

0:38:01.080 --> 0:38:03.160
<v Speaker 1>most people in the US are probably happy that the

0:38:03.239 --> 0:38:07.080
<v Speaker 1>government can't quickly like issue all kinds of different passports

0:38:07.080 --> 0:38:09.600
<v Speaker 1>to people for their neighborhoods. But yeah, there's sort of

0:38:09.600 --> 0:38:13.360
<v Speaker 1>like a degree of like tech that would make something

0:38:13.400 --> 0:38:17.320
<v Speaker 1>equivalent almost impossible to imagine in the US. Yeah. And

0:38:17.680 --> 0:38:20.520
<v Speaker 1>the other thing that I found interesting was the speed

0:38:20.560 --> 0:38:25.120
<v Speaker 1>with which it seems like businesses have actually adapted. And

0:38:25.320 --> 0:38:29.160
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned that you saw that here in New York. Um,

0:38:29.280 --> 0:38:31.120
<v Speaker 1>I guess I never really saw it in Hong Kong

0:38:31.160 --> 0:38:34.520
<v Speaker 1>because we didn't have a hard lockdown. But it was

0:38:34.600 --> 0:38:38.120
<v Speaker 1>interesting David's description of like the local coffee shop that

0:38:38.239 --> 0:38:41.279
<v Speaker 1>is now a bulk supplier of coffee beans. Well, I

0:38:41.360 --> 0:38:45.160
<v Speaker 1>was in Texas for a while during that spring, and

0:38:45.200 --> 0:38:48.040
<v Speaker 1>like the local uh text mex place, they would like

0:38:48.080 --> 0:38:51.239
<v Speaker 1>sell these kits where instead of like ordering enchiladas, you

0:38:51.239 --> 0:38:54.440
<v Speaker 1>would get this big tray of like beans and chicken

0:38:54.520 --> 0:38:56.879
<v Speaker 1>and tortillas to make her own enchiladas. And I thought

0:38:56.880 --> 0:38:58.520
<v Speaker 1>that was great. I was like, oh, maybe they should

0:38:58.520 --> 0:39:01.040
<v Speaker 1>be they should all maybe this is how it should stay,

0:39:01.040 --> 0:39:03.920
<v Speaker 1>Like all the restaurants become like milk companies. Yeah, this

0:39:03.960 --> 0:39:05.520
<v Speaker 1>is the other thing. I'm wondering how much of the

0:39:05.560 --> 0:39:10.200
<v Speaker 1>group buying dynamics stays even if lockdown is sort of

0:39:10.400 --> 0:39:13.239
<v Speaker 1>you know, if it goes away, because as I said

0:39:13.239 --> 0:39:16.360
<v Speaker 1>in the intro, group buying has existed in China for

0:39:16.400 --> 0:39:18.480
<v Speaker 1>a while, and people usually use it to try to

0:39:18.520 --> 0:39:21.920
<v Speaker 1>get good deals on book buying or just try to

0:39:21.960 --> 0:39:25.640
<v Speaker 1>secure something that's that's difficult to import without enough people

0:39:25.680 --> 0:39:28.560
<v Speaker 1>demanding it. I wonder if if it becomes even more

0:39:28.560 --> 0:39:32.480
<v Speaker 1>of a thing not specifically related to this, but it's

0:39:32.520 --> 0:39:35.719
<v Speaker 1>sort of I forgot that in China, a city of

0:39:35.760 --> 0:39:38.160
<v Speaker 1>twenty five million people, even though it's but you know,

0:39:38.200 --> 0:39:41.360
<v Speaker 1>the most important city economically, is also kind of a

0:39:41.400 --> 0:39:44.680
<v Speaker 1>drop in the bucket. You know. You think it's like, oh,

0:39:44.680 --> 0:39:47.680
<v Speaker 1>there's this huge hand. Yeah, it's really big. But on

0:39:47.719 --> 0:39:50.799
<v Speaker 1>the other hand, China is just so enormous that from

0:39:50.840 --> 0:39:55.440
<v Speaker 1>the grand scale of like Chinese good consumption or energy consumption,

0:39:55.560 --> 0:39:57.920
<v Speaker 1>it's not like it's not you know, it's not a

0:39:57.960 --> 0:40:01.840
<v Speaker 1>gigantic share, which China is just on a different scale

0:40:02.000 --> 0:40:05.840
<v Speaker 1>to everything else. However, what I would say is there

0:40:05.920 --> 0:40:10.880
<v Speaker 1>have been a lot of anecdotes about smaller villages in

0:40:10.920 --> 0:40:14.640
<v Speaker 1>the countryside being locked down completely. Um, there's someone I

0:40:14.680 --> 0:40:17.239
<v Speaker 1>follow close to Harbin who said the entire village was

0:40:17.280 --> 0:40:20.640
<v Speaker 1>basically carted off to quarantine. Now there's this talk about

0:40:20.640 --> 0:40:24.920
<v Speaker 1>Beijing going into lockdown as well, and so you know,

0:40:25.840 --> 0:40:28.120
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot going on. China is a big country,

0:40:28.160 --> 0:40:30.400
<v Speaker 1>but it does seem like there's the potential for this

0:40:30.560 --> 0:40:35.640
<v Speaker 1>to be a very significant economic hit. Yeah, really really extraordinary.

0:40:35.640 --> 0:40:40.600
<v Speaker 1>And I just can't imagine, I mean, having kids, having pets,

0:40:40.800 --> 0:40:43.319
<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned, I just the fact that you know,

0:40:43.360 --> 0:40:47.239
<v Speaker 1>people are sort of it stretched me as a very

0:40:47.239 --> 0:40:52.960
<v Speaker 1>psychologically taxing situation, setting aside even uh, concerns about being

0:40:52.960 --> 0:40:55.880
<v Speaker 1>able to get food in such Yeah, absolutely, all right,

0:40:55.960 --> 0:40:57.920
<v Speaker 1>shall we leave it there. Let's leave it there. This

0:40:58.000 --> 0:41:00.759
<v Speaker 1>has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm

0:41:00.760 --> 0:41:03.400
<v Speaker 1>Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy

0:41:03.440 --> 0:41:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Alloway and I'm Joe Wisn't Though. You can follow me

0:41:06.160 --> 0:41:09.440
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest David Fishman

0:41:09.520 --> 0:41:13.920
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter. He's at Pretentious What. Follow our producer Carmen Rodriguez,

0:41:14.040 --> 0:41:17.280
<v Speaker 1>She's at Carmen Arman. Follow the Bloomberg head of podcast,

0:41:17.280 --> 0:41:20.960
<v Speaker 1>Francesco Leavi at Francesco Today, and check out all of

0:41:20.960 --> 0:41:25.040
<v Speaker 1>our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. Thanks

0:41:25.080 --> 0:41:25.560
<v Speaker 1>for listening.