1 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World, we're continuing our series 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: The Road to the Midterms. Today we are twenty six 3 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: days away from the midterm elections, and I think the 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: upcoming elections are going to be one of the most 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:19,119 Speaker 1: important in my lifetime. I look back to nineteen eighty, 6 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety four, twenty ten, and I think that twenty 7 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 1: twenty two may have the same impact. I wanted to 8 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,159 Speaker 1: have two people on this podcast who I've worked with 9 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: for years. Dave Winston, who goes back all the way 10 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: to when I was a speaker and was invaluable both 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: as a planner for me and then went on to 12 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: develop with Myra Miller, the Winston Group. They have remarkable 13 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: insights both historically and politically, and they have thought as 14 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: much as anybody I know about how the American system 15 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 1: works and what the American people are all about. So 16 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: I've asked them to come and join us and give 17 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: us their insights about the upcoming Senate and House races. 18 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 1: Thank you both for joining me. This is kind of fun, 19 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 1: so like a family get together. Glad to be here. 20 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: Thanks for having us. So the Winston Group has been 21 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: doing some very interesting things which I've been sending out 22 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: on Twitter and elsewhere. You both do really interesting videos 23 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 1: about specific topics. David, you also do articles. There's a 24 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 1: Roll Call article where you called Hispanics the newest swing voter. 25 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: How important do you think that process with the Hispanic 26 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 1: votes is going to be in this midterm election. Well, 27 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 1: to your point, it's been very interesting in terms of 28 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: looking at the Hispanic vote, and it's not that it's 29 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: becoming necessarily Republican. It's becoming clearly much more independent in 30 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: terms of aligning with independence, which is still very good 31 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: for Republicans because again, historically Hispanics have been closely aligned 32 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: with the Democratic Party. But if you take a look 33 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: at the twenty Eggs of Poles, forty eight percent of 34 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: Hispanics identified with Democrats, which means, for the first time 35 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: there was a majority that did not twenty percent we're republican, 36 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: thirty two percent we're independent. And when you take a 37 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: look at their ideology, they are much much closer to 38 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: independence than they are to Democrats. And so we're seeing 39 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: the shift. And the key here, particularly for this election 40 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: is the fact that for Independence, their number one issue 41 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: is usually the economy, and for Hispanics that's their major focus. 42 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: They have a focus on crime, but still the economy 43 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 1: is the number one. So this is a unique opportunity 44 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: to really move a group of Hispanics into voting Republican. 45 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: But we need to recognize that their independence voting Republican, 46 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: not Republicans voting Republican. If I might add to that, 47 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,839 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, Republicans increased their vote from thirty two 48 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: percent in twenty sixteen to thirty six twenty twenty, and 49 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 1: among the Hismic voters who voted for Republican candidates for Congress, 50 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: their top issues were overwhelmingly the economy and crime. The 51 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: economy having deteriorated further since twenty to the last two years, 52 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: I think we're likely to see further Republican inroads with 53 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: the Hispanic voters. And so for me an election night, 54 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: one of the things I'm going to be looking for 55 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: is what is the Republican performance among Hispanic vote. I 56 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: think there's a chance the Republicans can reach of the 57 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: Hispanic boate possibly. I think at a performance level, the 58 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: economy always everything, and I think if you're within the 59 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: television coverage of big cities, crime has a huge impact. Philadelphia, 60 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: for example, has passed a thousand carjackings this year. Number 61 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: of the cities are now setting records for murders and 62 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: what have you. But you mentioned in your work, David, 63 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: that ideologically Hispanic voters are more closely aligned with independence 64 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: and with Democrats. That's beyond just a performance repudiation. That 65 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: suggests that there's something else also beginning to be a 66 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: work in the Hispanic community. Is that an accurate interpretation 67 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 1: of what you wrote, yes, very And just to give 68 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: you just the sense of how close they are to independence. 69 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: Amongst Hispanics, conservatives outnumber Hispanic liberals by seven so they're 70 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: more conservatives than liberals. Amongst independents, that margin is fourteen 71 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 1: But when you go to Democrats, liberals outnumber conservatives by 72 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 1: thirty six percent, so they're much closer. And having said that, 73 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 1: as a result of that, what's occurred is the direction 74 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: that the progressives and the Democratic Party have gone, have 75 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: enhanced the sort of alienation between the Democratic Party and Hispanics, 76 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: and quite frank that they just have completely different agendas. 77 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: The Progressive agenda is not the Hispanic agenda, and that's 78 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: the real opportunity. To what extent do you sense that 79 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: the economy, the pain of the system right now, yasoline, food, 80 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: you name, it is so great that the Independence are 81 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 1: likely to split overwhelmingly against what they see as the 82 00:04:55,920 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: end party. Well, we definitely have seen movement these races 83 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: throughout the summer and going back to the spring, Republicans 84 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: did have larger margins once a Dab's decision came down 85 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 1: the events over the summer, the certain things certainly became 86 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 1: more complicated. Now we've started to see a momentum moving 87 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: back toward Republicans on the economy as these inflation reports 88 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: continue to come out. October twenty seventh is when we 89 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: get the new GDP numbers from the Bureau of Economic 90 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: Analysis that will show possibly another quarter of negative growth, 91 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: which if that is the case, it will be very 92 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: difficult for the White House to balk on the idea 93 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,799 Speaker 1: that we are indeed in a recession. So thinking about 94 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 1: what where is their room to grow? Republicans have room 95 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: to grow in the next three to four weeks. Democrats 96 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: really don't on the issue of abortion, which has helped Democrats. 97 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: What more can Democrats say on that issue in the 98 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: next three weeks that they haven't already said? So I 99 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,679 Speaker 1: think the momentum is likely to continue to move toward 100 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: Republicans on the economy. Now, one additional factor that I 101 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: think it's important is that you have a large percentage 102 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: of the electorate and I believe it's about forty percent 103 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: of independence who are negative about both parties. Whenever you 104 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: have that dynamic in place, that leads to a lot 105 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: of volatility, potential shifting vote preferences back and forth, and 106 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: a lot of late decision making. So it's possible that 107 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: some of these races could be breaking all the way 108 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: to the end and we might not see that. Even 109 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: until the last week when we went into the ninety 110 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 1: four campaign. We were pretty sure by September seventeenth that 111 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: we're going to win fifty three seats, but none of 112 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 1: us had picked up on the degree to which Rostenkowski, 113 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: the chairman of the Ways of Means Committee in downtown Chicago, 114 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 1: surrounded by the Democratic machine, was in trouble. That was 115 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: the fifty fourth seat we pick up. Literally, I don't 116 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 1: think any of us realized that until election, Like, it's 117 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: kind of like, wow, what happened there? You never can 118 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: tell when you get into these kind of cycles where 119 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: places start to fall apart. When you have this level 120 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 1: of pain as you guys have been reporting, and you 121 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: have huge numbers. I think sixty eight percent think we're 122 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 1: on the wrong track, in fifteen percent think we're on 123 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: the right track. To what a sent does That sort 124 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: of make advertising less effective. It makes it less effective 125 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: in this regard what people are comfortable in terms of 126 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: using and putting on air versus given and people are 127 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: so dissatisfied, they don't want to hear what's going wrong. 128 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: They want to know what your solutions are. Because they 129 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: already know things are going wrong. You don't have to 130 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: reinforce that with them. And the challenge is for a 131 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: lot of our folks who are used to making the contrast, 132 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: look how bad this individual is performing, that's not where 133 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: the independence are at. They've already gotten to that conclusion. 134 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: They want to hear what we're going to do. And 135 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: that's a unique opportunity because what it also means, which 136 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: is unusual in the political environment, is when they're that unhappy, 137 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: they want to listen to you. That's the opening for 138 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: you to be able to engage with them. And you 139 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: don't have to pay for their attention. You have their attention. Yeah, 140 00:07:56,160 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: it's interesting. I got a picture from Pennsylvania somebody who 141 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: would put the Commitment to America as a big sign 142 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: in their yard, literally like twelve feet across or something, 143 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: just on their own. I was sort of reminded of 144 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: the impact that the contract had, not because people memorize it, 145 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: but because he gave them a sense that we wanted, 146 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: We were positive that we had things we wanted to 147 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: do at a time when they were sort of unhappy 148 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: with politics in general. And now you think of that 149 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: because this is sort of an important thing that you 150 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: established again, going back to nineteen ninety four, you came 151 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: out the concept of the contract of laying up very 152 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: clearly of what the commitment that the Republicans were making 153 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: to the Electric in terms of what they were going 154 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 1: to do. In twenty ten, we copied that and we 155 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: used the concept of the pledge very much based on 156 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 1: the contract, all right, And that produced getting in here 157 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: a set of ideas, and that produced a win. And 158 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: actually McCarthy was the member at that point. It was 159 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: a sign to write that up for Painter. Now McCarthy's 160 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:57,439 Speaker 1: using that as well. So I'd like to go back 161 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: and point out to you that if we win this, 162 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: which I think we will. The two times that we've 163 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:06,359 Speaker 1: taken the majority post you we're using basically the constructor 164 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: you put together of let's put together a document of 165 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 1: saying what we're gonna do. I'm working on a book 166 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: with Joe Gaylord about the long march to the majority, 167 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 1: carrying up to nineteen ninety four, and I hate to 168 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: tell us I'd love to be able to claim it 169 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: was mine. The first contract is Ronald Reagan in nineteen 170 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: eighty and the first Capital Steps event is Ronald Reagan 171 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty. And Luke Cannon, who was Reagan's biographer, 172 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: said at one point that the nineteen ninety four contract 173 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: that you could find about seventy five percent of it, 174 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: and Reagan's nineteen eighty five State of the Union, and 175 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: there's a certain truth to that. I think we now 176 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: for four cycles, we've stood on Reagan's shoulders, and I 177 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: think Kevin would agree that to degree he borrowed from 178 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: me and Byner and then we borrowed from Reagan has 179 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: been a pretty long, you know, gosh, forty years cycle now, 180 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: going back to nineteen seventy nine nineteen eighty, I had 181 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: the opportunity this week to be on Fox, and they 182 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: played Joe Biden saying the Republicans of nothing positive. But 183 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 1: I'm actually now carrying the commitment in my suit coat. 184 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: So I pulled it out and held it up and said, 185 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: you know, the one hundred and fifty specific policy proposals here, 186 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 1: which is not exactly the Biden model. To what extent 187 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: do you too think we're dealing with a performance failure 188 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: in the sense of people's lodge are just painfulte. I 189 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 1: tell everyone Louis Brogden, who works with us, went in 190 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 1: the grocery store two days ago, bought four hot dogs 191 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: and made over seven dollars and was just furious. I mean, 192 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: just thought, this is crazy. To what extent is that 193 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: a performance failure for Biden? And to what extent is 194 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: he having a personal failure? I think it's a little 195 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 1: bit of both. You were talking earlier about the comparisons 196 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: with the twenty ten cycles, when we were facing many 197 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: months of nine percent unemployment or higher. When President Biden 198 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,959 Speaker 1: came in, he was well liked, people were giving him 199 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: the benefit of the doubt on the economy. But what 200 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: has since occurred is that people really do hold him 201 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: responsible for many the things that have happened, whereas that 202 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 1: was not the case with President Obama. With President Biden, 203 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: certainly there are things that were not under his controls, 204 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: such as Putin's war in Ukraine. But there's a belief that, 205 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,319 Speaker 1: particularly the spending policies that have occurred, like the one 206 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: point nine trillion dollars American Rescue Plan, have added to 207 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: existing inflation and made this worst. So there's been a 208 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: performance failure there. But in terms of how people view him, 209 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: he's seen a decline in his brand image, which has 210 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 1: been positive throughout his presidential campaign and at the beginning 211 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 1: of his administration. And he wants to attack Donald Trump 212 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 1: and talk about the extreme MAGA threat, but the brand 213 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: image of Donald Trump and Joe Biden are very similar. 214 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: In fact, among independent voters, Donald Trump's brand image is 215 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: slightly better than Joe Biden's. So there's been a performance 216 00:11:53,559 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: failure at a policy level, but also personal as well. Hi, 217 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: this is newt We have serious decisions to make about 218 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,560 Speaker 1: the future of our country. Americans must confront big government, 219 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: socialism which has taken over the modern Democratic Party, big business, news, media, entertainment, 220 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: and academia. My new bestselling book Defeating Big Government Socialism. 221 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: Saving America's Future offers strategies and insights for everyday citizens 222 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: to save America's future and ensure it remains the greatest 223 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: nation on Earth. Here's a special offer for my podcast listeners. 224 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 1: You can order an autograph copy of my new book, 225 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: Defeating Big Government Socialism right now at gingwishtree sixty dot 226 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: com slash book and we'll ship it directly to you. 227 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: Don't miss out on this special offer. It's only available 228 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: for a limited time. Go to gingwishtree sixty dot com 229 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: slash book to order your copy now. Order it today 230 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: at gingwishtree sixty dot com slash book. Where can people 231 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 1: go if they want to sign up and routinely learn 232 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 1: what you're learning. We have a weekly newsletter, Discussion Points, 233 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: and also a new YouTube channel that we started two 234 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: weeks ago, Economic Discussion Points with the Winston Group, and 235 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: our monthly survey data is posted at Winning the Issues 236 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: dot org. The whole Biden slash democratic system has really 237 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: decayed in two years. So they came off of a 238 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: point in twenty twenty when they had an opportunity to 239 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: consolidate and be pretty impressive, and almost immediately started to decay, 240 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: and to some extent, the disaster in Afghanistan and the 241 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 1: inability of Biden to admit that it was a disaster, 242 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: I think it sort of became an inflection point where 243 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: people looked up and said, these guys can't tell us 244 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: the truth and they can't get things done, etc. But 245 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: have you been surprised at the relative rate of decay 246 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: when Biden came in he had promised and understand the 247 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 1: way Biden was able to put together a majority coalition 248 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: it was all out independence. When you actually take a 249 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: look at the twenty twenty election, the electorate became more 250 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 1: Republican and more conservative. So actually the twenty twenty election 251 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: we saw a better base turnout than we had seen 252 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, where Biden won. The election was amongst independence. 253 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: But then to your point, Nude, he walks in and 254 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 1: governs like a hard left progressive Democrat. I mean, the 255 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 1: American Rescue Plan was a massive spending plan, particularly in 256 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: contrast to what Barack Obama tried to do. So he 257 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 1: came in not recognizing how he won and just exacerbated 258 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: that political center, which is why is myra identified. His 259 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: standing with the independence is awful. Because that's not who 260 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: they thought they were voting for. But then you layer 261 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: on top of that his policy responses have also been wrong. 262 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: He's not addressing his constituency that elected him, and he 263 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: happens to be wrong. But Mara also remember this administration 264 00:14:56,040 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: is filled with a lot of ex Obama administration officials. 265 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: And so one of the reasons why we see parallels 266 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: to twenty ten is in part because many of those 267 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: Democrats are Obama administration officials. They're running the same playbook 268 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: they are back in the Biden administration with unfinished business, 269 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: and so they are trying at a policy level many 270 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: things that they couldn't do under the Obama administration because 271 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: there was a Republican Congress to check them to stop 272 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: all of that. So, in part, we are seeing what 273 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: the Obama White House would have liked to have done 274 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 1: at a much larger scale that was unchecked in the 275 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: way that it was during the Obama years. What Paul Krugman, 276 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 1: the New York Times economists who said that they the 277 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 1: reason that we had to go big was because of 278 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: the failure the two thousand and ninthy called underpowered stimulus, 279 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 1: the belief that it was too small which led to 280 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: the Republican takeover of Congress. And so because they felt 281 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: that there was a mistake and the size of the 282 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: two thousand nine stimulus, they had to go much larger 283 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: this time, and in fact, what they ended up doing 284 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: was failing at a much larger scale. In your own 285 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: survey analysis, Democrats really are a liberal now to a 286 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 1: degree that makes it hard for them, I think, to 287 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 1: have a self correcting internal mechanism. You know, Clinton had 288 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: the advantage that he was in Arkansas Democrat. He had 289 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: dealt with a conservative Arkansas legislature. He had actively worked 290 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: to moderate the Democratic Party, run on issues like ending 291 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: welfare as we know it, which was cleverly worded, everybody 292 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: could read into it what they wanted. He then governed 293 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: to the left and of course got beaten badly in 294 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: ninety four, and in his case, he just swung back 295 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: and became a centrist. And I remember still hosting him 296 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: at the State of the Union in ninety six, sitting 297 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: behind him and having him say the era of big 298 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: government is over, which meant I had to stand up 299 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: an applaud because what are you going to do? I mean, 300 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: it's our language. I get a sense that they have 301 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: become and I don't know what your data shows, but 302 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: I just have a sense that they become a dramatically 303 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: more monolithically liberal party. And they were under Clinton. That's 304 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: a really When Nancy Pelosi won in two thousand and six, 305 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,879 Speaker 1: won the House in two thousand and six, there were 306 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: significantly more moderates than the liberals in the Democratic Party, 307 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: and you could see that in terms of a lot 308 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 1: of the folks who were elected. When you could see 309 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: it in terms of even the recruiting. You had Ram 310 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: Emmanuel going out specifically trying to recruit moderates. When Democrats 311 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,679 Speaker 1: won in two eighteen, that flipped. Now there were more 312 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,239 Speaker 1: liberals than moderates. And where I'm getting these numbers are 313 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: from the exitpolts. What was the composition of the Democratic 314 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 1: Party in two thousand and six, who voted, and what 315 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: was the composition in two eighteen. So that's absolutely the 316 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: party has gone significantly to the left, and it's created 317 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: really significant problems in terms of who they actually nominate 318 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: and what policies they want those individuals to follow. I mean, again, 319 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,640 Speaker 1: you look at somebody like AOC who's got an outsized 320 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: role in terms of the image of the Democratic Party. 321 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 1: The progressive is where the center of gravity is in 322 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: their party in terms of fundraising and grassroots and energy, 323 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: and going back to Hispanic voters that you're speaking about 324 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 1: a few minutes ago, Democrats have not been able to 325 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 1: balance the progressive left with their grassroots activity, their fundraising, 326 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,439 Speaker 1: their energy, with alienating those groups that they have to 327 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 1: appeal to, and that's why their voters are rooting among 328 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 1: Hispanic voters. Some Democratic strategists have started to raise alarms 329 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,199 Speaker 1: about that, but I haven't seen any sign from the 330 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: Democratic leadership that they intend to do any course corrections 331 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,679 Speaker 1: to try to address them. It's almost like there's a 332 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: disconnect between what's actually happening in the real world and 333 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 1: what their ideological worldview allows them to see happening. It's 334 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 1: almost like there's a reality and then there's whatever they 335 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: believe and that they can't break loose from that. They 336 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: believe they know better, that this is for our own good, 337 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: and yes, there will be some painful prices we have 338 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,640 Speaker 1: to pay in the short term, but ultimately such will 339 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 1: move to one that they want. I mean, we're starting 340 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 1: to hear some talk about the silver linings of inflation, 341 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: which get to redistribution of wealth. So suffered through a 342 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: few months of painful inflation, but we're going to come 343 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 1: out in a better place, and it's off for your 344 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 1: own good. You guys are a professional polster, so this 345 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: sort of puts you on the spot a little bit. 346 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: But you know, I went back and preparing to write 347 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 1: this book on March to the majority. Time magazine the 348 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: week before we won, had a generic poll with the 349 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: Democrats of forty and the Republicans of thirty five, and 350 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 1: one week later we picked up fifty four seats. I 351 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 1: don't remember, David Myra, what the numbers were like and 352 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,439 Speaker 1: what the news media expectation was in two ten, but 353 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: my sense was that Sabato as late as September of 354 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: two thousand and nine thought that we would get modest gains. 355 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 1: I think they did not expect you to pick up 356 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 1: sixty three seats. They did not. They were expecting, as 357 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: you said, some modest gains, and there was a potential 358 00:19:58,560 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 1: chance that we were going to be able to get 359 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: enough to win the majority, and that seemed likely. But 360 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: getting to sixty three was a standard part of what 361 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 1: happened there. To your point, and this is a dynamic 362 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,199 Speaker 1: that exists very much now, is that as people got 363 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 1: closer to the election, Remember we were in the nineteenth 364 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: consecutive month of nine percent unemployment, and so as people 365 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 1: were thinking about what am I looking at? What am 366 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: I going to decide on? It finally settled in on 367 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: that sixty three percent of the country said the economy 368 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,919 Speaker 1: was their number one issue. And so what happened at 369 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: the very end that sort of pushed everything across the board, 370 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,719 Speaker 1: as you were describing in terms of people being undecided, 371 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 1: nine percent unemployment did it and the Democrats had no 372 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: answer for it. And again remember Obama was trying to say, well, 373 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: you don't want to give the keys back to the 374 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 1: people who put the car in the ditch in terms 375 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: of the economy, and everybody's saying, excuse me, didn't you 376 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: just have your nineteenth consecutive month of nine percent unemployment? 377 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 1: By the way, that ended up stretching for thirty months 378 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: To give you a sense of scale and depth of 379 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: how bad his policies were. Let me flip it another 380 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: way too, where you've seen some late movement and this 381 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 1: is going against us. And I'm sure you remember the 382 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: nineteen eighty two election when we hit that infamous ten 383 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 1: percent unemployment number. Guess what people decided. They weren't really 384 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: happy with us at that point as well. Now, Reagan 385 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 1: came back in eighty four and turned that all around. 386 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: But people pay very close attention to economic numbers because 387 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 1: they're dealing with it every single day. It surprised me 388 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: that the unemployment numbers have not gone up more. But 389 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: I saw some things I think Admira did that indicate 390 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: the country thinks we're in a recession, even if Biden doesn't. 391 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 1: If you have both inflation and recession does that's kind 392 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: of a double whammy. It is a double whammy. And 393 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,679 Speaker 1: President Biden told CNN's Jake Chopper earlier this week that 394 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 1: he didn't think that there would be a recession and 395 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: that if there were a recession, it would be, as 396 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 1: he described it, a very slight recession. But six out 397 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,399 Speaker 1: of ten voters believe that we were already there, regardless 398 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: of what those GDP numbers show. The end of this month, 399 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: people and we're already in a recession. Whether the White 400 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 1: House wants to try to explain that on technicalities or not, 401 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: we're already there. It strikes me that no matter how 402 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: many ads they run. One of the problems that Democrats 403 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: have is that people go to the gas station, they 404 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: go to the grocery store, and it ain't working. It 405 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 1: just sort of washes away a great deal of the 406 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,680 Speaker 1: advertising because in their personal lives they're feeling this kind 407 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,679 Speaker 1: of experience beyond gas prices. Just to give you a 408 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: sense of how bad the inflation rate is, if you 409 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: take a look at food at home, this is going 410 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 1: to the grocery store. We've now had three consecutive months 411 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: where the inflation rate has been above thirteen percent. When 412 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 1: you take a look at electricity prices, right, pretty basic thing. 413 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: And given the fact that Democrats want to move everything 414 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 1: to electricity, the last three month electricity inflation rate has 415 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: been over fifteen percent. And then you're right, you get 416 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: to gasoline prices, you get to the overall inflation rate, 417 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: which we've now been at eight percent for over seven months. 418 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 1: So the problem the Democrats have is their content the 419 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: outcome of their policies is pretty difficult to defend. At 420 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 1: this point, many Democrats were starting to panic about the 421 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 1: economy that they have spent the last three months focusing 422 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: their campaigns on abortion and what they call the extreme 423 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: maga threats to democracy, culminating with President Biden's September first 424 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,360 Speaker 1: speech calling out so called threats to democracy. And now 425 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: they're panicking that they have neglected the economy. And even 426 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders wrote in an op ed for The Guardian 427 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: a few days ago that if Democrats did not start 428 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 1: fighting back on economic issues and present an economic agenda, 429 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: that they were in serious danger of being in the 430 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 1: minority in both the House and the Senate. But the 431 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 1: question then becomes, if they suddenly start talking about the economy, 432 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: what are they going to talk about, because their track 433 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 1: record is so abysmal, With these inflation GDP numbers continuing 434 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: to come out, what are they going to talk about? 435 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: Because more of the same policy prescription in the last 436 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: two years is not something that's going to sit well 437 00:23:49,760 --> 00:24:12,360 Speaker 1: with the elector. I look at the economy, I look 438 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: at crime, I look at the open border, look at 439 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: one hundred thousand people dying from drug overdoses, and it 440 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: just strikes me that it's a year where it's better 441 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: to be on the outs than be on the ends, 442 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: because people are going to be mad and throw out 443 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: the ends. And yet you get a lot of these 444 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: insider groups. You know, the Economist apparently came out and 445 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 1: predicted that the race for the House is very close 446 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 1: and that the Democrats could retain a majority. I would 447 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 1: be beyond shocked if the Democrats had a majority in 448 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 1: the House after this election. And yet the Economist is 449 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: a very prestigious and serious publication. I mean, how do 450 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,440 Speaker 1: you guys deal with this gap between sort of the 451 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: Washington insider bias and what you see happening in the 452 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 1: country at large. Go back to one broader thing about 453 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: polling at the moment, and the Economist gets its stated. 454 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: One of the interesting things that's emerging with polling, and 455 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,679 Speaker 1: there's this basic a group of people of which I 456 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 1: tend to be one, is that phone polling is basically dead. 457 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: So we are relearning how to gather public opinion online 458 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: and do all the steps necessary to make sure that 459 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,880 Speaker 1: reflects the universe that we're trying to understand. So you've 460 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 1: got a lot of that is what I would call 461 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 1: sort of disruptive noise in the background and making things 462 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: a lot more complicated. But also, let's go back to 463 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: the last election. Democrats won the popular vote in terms 464 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: of the congressional level by three point one percent, yet 465 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: we closed to within two thirteen, right, so we were 466 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 1: five seats away. So if you're looking at a generic bootist, 467 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:48,879 Speaker 1: it's about even. That should be ample additional votes to 468 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 1: put Republicans over the top to get into the majority. 469 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 1: Plus you have redisterting as well, which ended up being 470 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: a slight positive for us. The conservative estimate that I'm 471 00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 1: seeing in terms of what people are saying is ten 472 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: to fIF team. Either one of those outcomes puts us 473 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: into the majority. But we also have a couple of 474 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 1: more events coming up. As Myra described, we have the 475 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: GDP numbers the end for third quarter coming up the 476 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 1: end of this month, and we've got one more jobs 477 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,120 Speaker 1: report to potentially even frame this election even more. So. 478 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,679 Speaker 1: You know, if those two numbers come out difficult for 479 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: then certainly the GDP numbers are likely to do that, 480 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 1: then that's going to increase that number. But at this 481 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,159 Speaker 1: point again, now let's go back to a question you 482 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: ask earlier. You've got a group of people who are 483 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 1: thinking through here, what is it that I'm finally going 484 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,360 Speaker 1: to vote on in terms of that's still the economy. 485 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 1: If that's where they end up on election day, just 486 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,880 Speaker 1: like what we saw in two and ten. That presents 487 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,440 Speaker 1: a really good environment for all Republican candidates. I don't 488 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: remember in two ten how close John Vyner came to 489 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 1: covering every single district. Do you remember off hand? No. 490 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: I think Kevin McCarthy this year is recruited virtually everywhere. 491 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 1: Now he's also done something. He's recruited and at least 492 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,440 Speaker 1: ifonic had set the temple for this in twenty twenty 493 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: in terms of recruiting women candidate, he's done a very 494 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 1: good job in terms of trying to match up candidates 495 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: and the appropriate districts to make sure that the best 496 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 1: opportunity for Republicans existed. And I think he's done a 497 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 1: very strong job. And in that sense, if I remember correctly, 498 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: the experts said House Republicans would lose twenty five seats. 499 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: They gained fifteen. That's actually a swing of forty from expectations. 500 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,959 Speaker 1: And I think all fifteen were either women who are 501 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: minorities or both. That's great, But again going back to 502 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty, that swing that you were talking about, that's 503 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: a good example of where the public polling entities we're 504 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 1: just looking at the data in such a way that 505 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 1: they were just assuming a much stronger Democrat turnout and 506 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,639 Speaker 1: a much weaker Republican turnout than actually occurred. I go 507 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty was a good election in terms 508 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 1: of Republican turnout and conservative turnout, and that's one of 509 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: the things that people just haven't recognized in terms of 510 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 1: moving forward. And the other thing that Democrats don't want 511 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,400 Speaker 1: to admit is the reason they're sitting in the White 512 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,040 Speaker 1: House and they're sitting in these majorities is because of 513 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 1: independence not based Democrats, and some of those unexpected wins 514 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty or in part because of the games 515 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,679 Speaker 1: Republicans made among Hispanic voters, and so there were some 516 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,639 Speaker 1: surprising wins in Texas, Florida, and California directly as a 517 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 1: result of that. There's a genuine revolution underway and that 518 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: Republicans are becoming the party of people who did not 519 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,399 Speaker 1: go to a four year college. Two thirds of the 520 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 1: American people have gone to high school and maybe votech school, 521 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,479 Speaker 1: or maybe apprenticeships or to local community colleges, but they 522 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 1: have not gone to a four year college. And those 523 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 1: two thirds of the country, there is this enormous underlying 524 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 1: shift away from the Franklin Delano Roosevelt coalition. And at 525 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: the same time, the upper class, graduate school educated whites 526 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 1: who would one time have been the moderate wing of 527 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 1: the Republican Party have all moved dramatically to the left. 528 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: So you really do see that. I'd be curious because 529 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 1: you guys look at the state all the time, but 530 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 1: my sense is you're really seeing a profound shift in 531 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 1: how the American people are organizing themselves. And one of 532 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 1: the reasons we are doing so well with it, are 533 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: beginning to improve with Hispanics is because of the working class. 534 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 1: Hispanics are very much moving, like I said, to the 535 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: middle and ultimately becoming opportunities for Republicans to be able 536 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 1: to talk to. But the elites are driving the progressive movement, 537 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 1: and you know, you're looking at again, you graduate, college educated, 538 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: wealthy living in urban areas, and very wealthy areas of 539 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 1: those urban areas, And what it's done is it's really 540 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 1: driven the fundraising side of the Democratic Party toward those ideas. 541 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 1: And so if you're a candidate and you're trying to 542 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 1: raise money, you've got to sort of agree with a 543 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 1: lot of those ideas, or else you can't raise the 544 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 1: resources you need. Also to put some of this in context, 545 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 1: it's important to remember there are a lot more conservatives 546 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 1: and liberals in this country, despite what we may hear 547 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 1: in the media and institutions. In the twenty twenty elections 548 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 1: at the House level, the percentage of liberals in the 549 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 1: electorate was twenty four. The percentage of conservatives was thirty nine, 550 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 1: So that means conservatives outnumbered liberals by fifteen points. We 551 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 1: as conservatives, we could oftentimes treated as this fringe minority. 552 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 1: But there's a lot more conservatives and liberals in this country, 553 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 1: and we have forgimmed that my senses, and I think 554 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 1: your work shows this. They actually tend towards to be 555 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 1: more comfortable towards the conservative side than towards the liberal side. Yes, 556 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 1: I mean that is a strategic advantage for Republicans over 557 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 1: Democrats particular. Thus Democrats have gone further to the lad 558 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 1: So the more that Republicans can make policy debates about 559 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 1: issues rather than strictly personality, the more that should naturally 560 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 1: favor them. Elon must sort of captured that when he 561 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 1: did the tweet with the stick figures and showed where 562 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 1: he was and where he thought the Democrats were about 563 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, and then showed how they'd move 564 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 1: further and further to the left, leaving him much closer 565 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 1: to the Republicans without him having moved at all. And 566 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,440 Speaker 1: I thought it sort of captured a large part of 567 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 1: what's now happening when you get down to the state 568 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,560 Speaker 1: legislature and the governors. The Republican Party now is a 569 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,960 Speaker 1: much stronger party than the Democratic Party, and that's in 570 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: my lifetime. That is an enormous reversal of the two parties. Yes, 571 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 1: Bill Maher has echoed a lot of the same sentiments. 572 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 1: He says, I haven't changed. I consider myself the liberal, 573 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 1: but I don't recognize the Democratic Party even from where 574 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 1: it was five years ago. Think about many of those 575 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 1: positions the Democratic Party used to consider mainstream positions, especially 576 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 1: on the issue of abortion, Those have changed radically even 577 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: in the last couple of years. So it's no wonder 578 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: that there's an alienating effect going on at a very 579 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: large scale level across the country. What does your gut 580 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 1: tell you? What do you expect to see election night? 581 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 1: I typically don't like questions asking for predictions, but if 582 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 1: the election were held today, I think Republicans will certainly 583 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 1: win the House. But the election is not held today. 584 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 1: We have got three more weeks to go. I think 585 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 1: Republicans will win the House, and I think the big 586 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 1: story of the night is going to be hispanics and 587 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: what does your guys tell you about the Senate. I'm 588 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 1: not going to back off. I'm playing my role of 589 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 1: podcast host here. Hard to say that I think the 590 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 1: chances are good. It's a lot closer there. There are 591 00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 1: several toss ups that are just too close to call. 592 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 1: So I'm not sure, but I hope for the best. Okay, David, 593 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,320 Speaker 1: she artfully was dodging, where are you nude? I tend 594 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 1: to look at political moments and in terms of we're 595 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 1: going from equilibrium to equilibrium, okay, And so prior to 596 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: the Dobs decision, there was an equilibrium in place where 597 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 1: we clearly had a substantive lead that impact of people 598 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: rethought things. Now we're at a new equilibrium. There was 599 00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 1: a new equilibrium prior to this most recent round of 600 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,840 Speaker 1: economic reports that put the Democrats pretty close, and that's 601 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 1: when a lot of people were questioning could Republicans hold 602 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: the House or get the House or not. This new equilibrium, 603 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 1: as a result of these new economic numbers conservative here 604 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,960 Speaker 1: and say this represents probably about ten to fifteen, maybe 605 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 1: as high as twenty. If the GDP report comes out 606 00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: the end of this month and it's quite negative, that 607 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 1: will rearrange the equilibrium, and then you can start pushing 608 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 1: it to potentially twenty to thirty. And it depends what 609 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,760 Speaker 1: the final jobs report is. So either way, I'm sort 610 00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,400 Speaker 1: of looking at the House is likely to go Republican, 611 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: but I think we've got some more economic things that 612 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 1: could shift the equilibrium to move it in our favor. 613 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 1: But being conservative, and you know that I always do 614 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 1: this to me. Right now, I'm ten to fifteen, maybe 615 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 1: ten to twenty. And that has also been of registering 616 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,000 Speaker 1: in the Senate. The Senate is if you want to 617 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 1: talk about whether these numbers are really going to impact 618 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 1: I think it's really going to impact the Senate in 619 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,080 Speaker 1: terms of a variety of these races. I mean, some 620 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 1: of these races are just so close. When you look 621 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 1: at Georgia Pennsylvania, I have been stunned at the fact 622 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 1: that actually, I think Masters is actually closing a bit. 623 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:43,720 Speaker 1: I don't know if he can get all the way there. 624 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,280 Speaker 1: And then even when you're looking at North Carolina Johnson 625 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 1: and Wisconsin Cortez Mastow. And these are all really close 626 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 1: races that given the final events, can change. And by 627 00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 1: the way that Nevada race is going to be a 628 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: real belt weather state, as Myra was sort of defining 629 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,600 Speaker 1: where are Hispanics in terms of where we're going. So 630 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: I think the Senate is still unclear. We have opportunities 631 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 1: to do well, but I think the last month is 632 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 1: going to matter. Listen, I always love chatting with you two. 633 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,680 Speaker 1: I think you do amazing work, and I think that 634 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 1: your depth of understanding is remarkable, and I really appreciate 635 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 1: you chatting with us about where we are and what 636 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,719 Speaker 1: could happen. And I look forward to continuing this conversation 637 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 1: in the future. Thanks thanks for having us. Thank you 638 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,560 Speaker 1: to my guests Dave Winston Amirah Miller. You can get 639 00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 1: a link to the Winston Group on our show page 640 00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 1: at newtsworld dot com. Newts World is produced by Gingwistreet 641 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:45,719 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Garnsey Sloan, our 642 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 1: producer is Rebecca Howe, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 643 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley 644 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,640 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingwish three sixty. If 645 00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,360 Speaker 1: you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple 646 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,839 Speaker 1: Podcast and both rate us with five stars and give 647 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,760 Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about. 648 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,800 Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of news World can sign up for 649 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 1: my three free weekly columns at gangwidere sixty dot com 650 00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 1: slash newsletter. I'm newt Gangwig. This is news World.