WEBVTT - Why are assassinations on the rise?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Anny, I'm Noah, this is Devin, and this is

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<v Speaker 1>no such thing. The show where we settle our dumb

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<v Speaker 1>arguments and yours by actually doing the research. On today's episode,

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about the resurgence of assassinations. We'll talk about

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<v Speaker 1>the Luigi Mangeoni case, and we'll interview a professor from

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<v Speaker 1>the University of Chicago who's been studying political violence for decades.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no no such thing, no such thing, such, thank.

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<v Speaker 3>Such, thank.

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<v Speaker 2>You.

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<v Speaker 1>All Right, quick note that this is what the three

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<v Speaker 1>of us are deeming to be an emergency episode based

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<v Speaker 1>on what's happening in the news, and for that reason,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not going to be structured like a normal episode

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<v Speaker 1>of no such thing. We're talking about the rise of

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<v Speaker 1>political violence, right. We have big newsworthy examples like January sixth, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>the attack on Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi's husband, the two

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<v Speaker 1>different Trump assassination attempts, and all that kind of leads

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<v Speaker 1>us to this case where this guy, Luigi Mangioni allegedly

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<v Speaker 1>assassinated the CEO of United Healthcare. People suspect that this

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<v Speaker 1>had to do with like frustrations with the healthcare industry,

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<v Speaker 1>but what the three of us are trying to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out is why all of this political violence seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be on the rise. And so, yeah, I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a fair question, like is political violence on the rise?

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, why does it feel like this is happening.

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<v Speaker 4>It's interesting because we've gotten in many ways used to

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<v Speaker 4>mass shooting events, these sorts of things mm hm, and

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<v Speaker 4>this is obviously close to that, but very different, and

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's why you do see more sympathy for

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<v Speaker 4>the cause. Yeah, perhaps where it's not just random killing

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<v Speaker 4>of normal citizens, it is targeted in this specific way. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>which does make more of a statement. I'm curious to

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<v Speaker 4>hear why we are seeing arise in that. Yeah, it

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<v Speaker 4>was interesting, like this kind of violence like when it

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<v Speaker 4>has a motivation, and when the motivation of the violence

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<v Speaker 4>is like something that a lot of people can agree with,

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<v Speaker 4>like obviously not the killing itself, but when the cause,

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<v Speaker 4>so to speak, has this sentiment that's against the way

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<v Speaker 4>that like healthcare runs in this country. You know, we

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<v Speaker 4>did see like a very layered, very interesting reaction to this.

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<v Speaker 5>Just antidotally. What I've noticed is that people feel more

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<v Speaker 5>disconnected from the system in a way you just taught

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<v Speaker 5>this with like low turnout during the election yea amongst

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<v Speaker 5>young people, and I think few people I think are

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<v Speaker 5>over going through the means of the system to see results.

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<v Speaker 5>And now I think, you know, we don't exactly know,

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<v Speaker 5>like you're saying, there's this suppose in manifesto, we don't

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<v Speaker 5>exactly know what the motive was here. Yeah, but I

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<v Speaker 5>have seen people respond in a way that suggests that

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<v Speaker 5>they are open to people finding creative ways around the system.

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<v Speaker 5>This seek change, you.

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<v Speaker 1>Know, not to perpetuate my reputation as a Bernie bro

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<v Speaker 1>but like I think he and Elizabeth Warren had kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the quote unquote correct take on this thing, which

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<v Speaker 1>is to immediately like condemn the shooting, but then try

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<v Speaker 1>and figure out why this is happening. We you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't know shit about this. So we are after

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<v Speaker 1>the break, we are going to talk to Robert Pape,

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<v Speaker 1>who is a professor at the University of Chicago and

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<v Speaker 1>he's been studying political violence for decades. So let's just

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<v Speaker 1>talk to him. Hello, Professor Pape, thank you for doing this.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you just start by telling us who you are.

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<v Speaker 6>My name is Robert Pape. I'm a professor of Political

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<v Speaker 6>Science and director of the University of Chicago Project on

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<v Speaker 6>Security and Threats. I study political violence. I've been studying

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<v Speaker 6>political violence for thirty years. For the last four years

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<v Speaker 6>I have studied American political violence rather extensively. Obviously, I've

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<v Speaker 6>got a lot of things to say, you know, I've

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<v Speaker 6>done a bunch of things on this in the last week,

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<v Speaker 6>and I'm going to be studying political violence here in

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<v Speaker 6>America it looks like easily the next five years.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's just start there. I think like you've mentioned that

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<v Speaker 1>there is this trend, and it's an upward trend, and

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<v Speaker 1>you don't think it's going anywhere. Can you just walk

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<v Speaker 1>us through what exactly that trend is, how you measure it,

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<v Speaker 1>and where you think it's going to take us.

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<v Speaker 6>The way you measure political violence in the United States

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<v Speaker 6>or in Iraq or Afghanistan anywhere around the world is

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<v Speaker 6>really pretty much the same. What Political violences are acts

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<v Speaker 6>of violence that are meant to send a political message

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<v Speaker 6>or have an impact on society as a whole, or

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<v Speaker 6>to change the behavior of an actor, whether it's a

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<v Speaker 6>government of corporation in any particular in any particular direction.

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<v Speaker 6>So whether you want to defund the police, whether you

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<v Speaker 6>want to get the university administration to stop supporting Israel,

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<v Speaker 6>whether you're trying to stop an election that is the

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<v Speaker 6>transfer of power. These are just some of the examples

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<v Speaker 6>that all fit under the hood of political violence. Now,

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<v Speaker 6>starting about five or six years ago, we started to

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<v Speaker 6>see an unbelievably noticeable trend upwards in lone wolf political

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<v Speaker 6>violent attacks. Obviously, the CEO murder fits a lone wolf factor.

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<v Speaker 6>So in twenty eighteen we saw the Tree of Life

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<v Speaker 6>Life shooting.

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<v Speaker 2>A tragic day in the city of Pittsburgh, a mass

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<v Speaker 2>shooting apparently driven by hate at a synagogue in Squirrel Hill.

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<v Speaker 2>At this hour, eleven people are confirmed dead, six more injured,

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<v Speaker 2>including four Pittsburgh Police officers.

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<v Speaker 6>What you had was you had a lone wolf attacker.

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<v Speaker 6>And then he left a manifesto, and his manifesto was

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<v Speaker 6>all about what's called the Great Replacement, which is this

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<v Speaker 6>idea that whites are being deliberately replaced. Then in August

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<v Speaker 6>twenty nineteen, we saw another mash shooting, this time at

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<v Speaker 6>a Walmart in Al Paso, killing over twenty Hispanics. And

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<v Speaker 6>this too, he left a manifesto about the Great replacement

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<v Speaker 6>really the identical political theory, this time blaming the issue

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<v Speaker 6>of the Hispanics in this complex political conspiracy theory. And

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<v Speaker 6>then we saw in May twenty twenty two the Buffalo shooting,

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<v Speaker 6>where again you have an attacker. He's killing approximately ten

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<v Speaker 6>innocent African America just standing in line at a top supermarket. Here.

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<v Speaker 6>They've done nothing to him. He doesn't know them from Adam.

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<v Speaker 6>And he too leaves a manifesto, this one hundred and

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<v Speaker 6>sixty pages long. So these are clearly acts of also

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<v Speaker 6>about the Great Replacement. What those three attacks have in

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<v Speaker 6>common is those shooters we're trying to advance the agenda,

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<v Speaker 6>a political agenda against what's called the Great Replacement. This

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<v Speaker 6>is a right wing conspiracy theory that's been around for years.

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<v Speaker 7>What Joe Biden is doing now will change this country forever.

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<v Speaker 7>So again, why is he doing it? There's only one

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<v Speaker 7>plausible answer. You're not allowed to say it out loud.

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<v Speaker 7>In political terms, this policy is called the Great Replacement,

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<v Speaker 7>the replacement of legacy Americans with more obedient people from

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<v Speaker 7>far away countries.

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<v Speaker 6>But in these cases, these shooters are leaving manifestos articulating

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<v Speaker 6>this political agenda and that's why when I saw the

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<v Speaker 6>writing on the shellcasings of the CEO killing.

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<v Speaker 8>CBS News has confirmed from law enforcement officials that the

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<v Speaker 8>words deny, defend, and depose we're written on shellcasings at

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<v Speaker 8>the scene. Investigators are now looking into if those words

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<v Speaker 8>point to a motive related to insurance companies' responses to claims.

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<v Speaker 6>Right away, the clear signs of a politically motivated attack,

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<v Speaker 6>even if there was somehow an additional personal motive involved.

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<v Speaker 6>And the more we've found out, there appears to be

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<v Speaker 6>no beef that this guy had with the actual healthcare

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<v Speaker 6>insurance company itself. We're finding like virtually no connection at all.

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<v Speaker 6>It appears to be almost one hundred percent politically motivated,

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<v Speaker 6>and that is really a common thing. You often get,

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<v Speaker 6>these mixed motives, you see what I mean, So people

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<v Speaker 6>are sometimes saying, well, is that only one hundred percent

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<v Speaker 6>politically driven. Often what you find are volatile individuals. They

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<v Speaker 6>have their own reasons for being on the edge of violence,

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<v Speaker 6>for their own psycho social reasons. Many of them are

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<v Speaker 6>mentally ill. But then you have this political motive layered

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<v Speaker 6>on top and their belief that their act will become popular.

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<v Speaker 6>That often nudges them over the edge.

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<v Speaker 5>So we've been thinking about this obviously a lot over

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<v Speaker 5>the last couple of days, but I don't think those

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<v Speaker 5>two examples came up for us at all during our conversations.

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<v Speaker 5>I guess in our minds we hadn't been thinking about

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<v Speaker 5>mass shootings as fitting into this larger conversation about political violence.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and the fact that people who are anxious about

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<v Speaker 4>this great replacement theory end up being the primary source

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<v Speaker 4>of political violence.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor, We've been asking why there's been this general increase

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<v Speaker 1>in political violence. Is the answer to that question as

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<v Speaker 1>simple as the demographic shifts that have been happening around

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<v Speaker 1>the world, or is there more to it?

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<v Speaker 6>I would say the big tap route is the demographic shift.

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<v Speaker 6>We are going through a historic transition in our country

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<v Speaker 6>from a white majority democracy to a white minority, truly balanced,

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<v Speaker 6>multiracial democracy. This helps to explain a lot of the

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<v Speaker 6>virulent reaction to Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, when they let I think the real numbers,

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<v Speaker 3>fifteen sixteen million people into our country.

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<v Speaker 1>When they do that, we got a lot of work

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<v Speaker 1>to do.

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<v Speaker 4>They're poisoning the blood of our country.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what they've done.

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<v Speaker 6>Because you have folks who are really on the let's

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<v Speaker 6>call them on the right, who are very nervous about

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<v Speaker 6>this transition that's about to happen, and they would like

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<v Speaker 6>it to be more managed or more carefully done and

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<v Speaker 6>slow down. That's where this general nervousness is from. Where

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<v Speaker 6>are they going to come out in this transition? And

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<v Speaker 6>then the others polarization, social media, Trump's character in his

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<v Speaker 6>personal style of politics. I would say those are three

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<v Speaker 6>additional factors, but they're like secondary.

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<v Speaker 1>So you've been walking us through the general rise in

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<v Speaker 1>political violence over the years and how it's tied to

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<v Speaker 1>the great replacement conspiracy theory and that there is demographic

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<v Speaker 1>change happening all over the world. But the conspiracy part

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<v Speaker 1>is that it's being done deliberately to wipe out white populations.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you get these lone wolf characters who are

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<v Speaker 1>radicalized by this and they end up being the source

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<v Speaker 1>of political violence. In the past few years, but we've

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<v Speaker 1>been really interested in assassinations, specifically political violence that is

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<v Speaker 1>targeted towards a specific person, like this healthcare CEO. Have

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<v Speaker 1>you been tracking assassinations? Are those on the rise as well?

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<v Speaker 6>So in twenty twenty two, we saw not just that

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<v Speaker 6>plot against Justice Cavanaugh.

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<v Speaker 1>A man who fully say planned to kill Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 1>Justice Brett Kavanaugh is charged with attempted murder this morning.

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<v Speaker 6>And then also in October twenty twenty two, we saw

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<v Speaker 6>the assassination attempt against Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi,

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<v Speaker 6>which missed her but almost killed her her husband.

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<v Speaker 8>House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office says that someone broke into

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<v Speaker 8>her home in San Francisco this morning and violently attacked

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<v Speaker 8>her husband.

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<v Speaker 6>Then in the next summer of June twenty twenty three,

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<v Speaker 6>there was an assailant trying to live stream and attack

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<v Speaker 6>against Barack Obama's home.

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<v Speaker 7>A man who Polisse was armed with explosives is arrested

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<v Speaker 7>outside the Washington, d C. Home of former President Barack Obama.

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<v Speaker 6>And then of course we've seen the two assassination attempts

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<v Speaker 6>against Donald Trump, and there is a whole spate of

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<v Speaker 6>attacks against congressional leaders that collection right there, just that

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<v Speaker 6>number that I identified. You have to go back to

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<v Speaker 6>nineteen sixty eight. You have to go back to that

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<v Speaker 6>year which saw the assassination of Martin Luther King.

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<v Speaker 3>Some very sad news for all of you, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think sad news for all of our fellow citizens and

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<v Speaker 3>people who love peace all over the world, and that

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<v Speaker 3>is that Martin Luther King was shot and was killed

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<v Speaker 3>tonight in Efica.

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<v Speaker 6>Then just a few months later you had the assassination

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<v Speaker 6>of Robert F. Kennedy, who was then the leading contender

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<v Speaker 6>for the Democratic presidential nomination when he was assassinated. If

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<v Speaker 6>you just focus just on that issue of assassinations, you

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<v Speaker 6>can see right away that we're at a historical high.

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<v Speaker 6>We are on a slippery slope of normalization of violence

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<v Speaker 6>in our country. I call this the era of violent

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<v Speaker 6>popular What we find in our surveys is that between

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<v Speaker 6>five ten percent of Americans sometimes even fifteen will support

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<v Speaker 6>political violence for grievances. Political grievances they also endorse. And

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<v Speaker 6>that's thirty million people. That's a lot of people. So

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<v Speaker 6>I'm not at all surprised by what happened with the

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<v Speaker 6>CEO here. What happened is is you guys all probably

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<v Speaker 6>know if you go to his ex account before he

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<v Speaker 6>was arrested at that McDonald's, he literally had only sixty

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<v Speaker 6>seven six seven followers on his x account. Within twelve hours,

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<v Speaker 6>it was four hundred thousand four hundred thousand. Now there

0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:44.880
<v Speaker 6>are folk songs for this guy.

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 5>For now a Manngioni's locked in a cell nearly identical

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 5>to this one.

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.560
<v Speaker 2>His supporters are donating tens of thousands of dollars to

0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 2>online legal defense funds.

0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 1>So why is that based on your research, why is

0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.440
<v Speaker 1>there such strong support for this specific assecent destination.

0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:10.720
<v Speaker 6>Well, I think it's been strong because at the tap

0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:14.120
<v Speaker 6>root of this political violence is anger. The one third

0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 6>of this healthcare company's claims are denied, approximately one third.

0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:20.560
<v Speaker 1>That is outrageous.

0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:22.120
<v Speaker 5>It's more than double the industry.

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:27.480
<v Speaker 6>Standard political anger. And that anger is real, and you

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:33.000
<v Speaker 6>can't talk people out of their anger. So our strategy

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.560
<v Speaker 6>has been not to try to talk people out of

0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 6>their anger. What we think you can do is help

0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:45.800
<v Speaker 6>them redirect their anger away from violence and toward politics.

0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:50.440
<v Speaker 6>I don't think talking people out of their anger is

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:54.640
<v Speaker 6>the right strategy. What the strategy should be is to

0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 6>have them redirect that anger, which a lot of times

0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:02.560
<v Speaker 6>is based on reality. I'm not denying that, okay, I'm

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.840
<v Speaker 6>telling you that's real. So you don't try to talk

0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:08.600
<v Speaker 6>people out of this anger, because if you do, you're

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.160
<v Speaker 6>just gonna make them more defiant. That's just the way

0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.000
<v Speaker 6>it is. If I try to talk you out of

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:15.240
<v Speaker 6>something you're mad about, you're going to dig in. Okay,

0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.480
<v Speaker 6>So no, that's not the idea. The idea is how

0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:22.280
<v Speaker 6>can I encourage you to make it more productive so

0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:25.720
<v Speaker 6>that you'll actually have a way to change the system

0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:29.200
<v Speaker 6>in a productive way. Because you see, if the anger

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 6>just leads to this political violence, the system may end

0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:35.600
<v Speaker 6>up getting burned down. But a lot of times what

0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:38.680
<v Speaker 6>comes in, and we see this in revolutions is something

0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:43.200
<v Speaker 6>dramatically draconianly what right wing. I mean, much worse than

0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:46.200
<v Speaker 6>Donald Trump. You think Donald Trump's bad? Nothing like the

0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:50.040
<v Speaker 6>Ayatola Halmoni in nineteen seventy nine that started out as

0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.560
<v Speaker 6>a liberal revolution against the shaw of Iran and then

0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:58.800
<v Speaker 6>it became seized and taken over by unbelievable hardliners. That's

0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.360
<v Speaker 6>the real trajectory these when you get real violence.

0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>Like this, professor, you have warned us of a future

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:12.400
<v Speaker 1>that is bleaked, to say the least, But is there

0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.240
<v Speaker 1>a way to avoid it? Like what can we do

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:20.520
<v Speaker 1>as a society that would result in a decrease in

0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:21.640
<v Speaker 1>political violence.

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:26.200
<v Speaker 6>It's important in this case to recognize even more than

0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:31.040
<v Speaker 6>in the others here, that anger, that anger needs to

0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:33.040
<v Speaker 6>have some place to go. And that's what I'm trying

0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:36.720
<v Speaker 6>to say in different ways in my writings in the media,

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:39.959
<v Speaker 6>on the podcast, and I really think we will ultimately

0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:43.560
<v Speaker 6>have a softer, a medium, soft landing here in twenty

0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:47.200
<v Speaker 6>thirty five. But I think we need to realize this

0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.560
<v Speaker 6>isn't just gonna happen on its own. But I do

0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 6>I'm not really pessimistic, really, I'm realistic about the challenges

0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.600
<v Speaker 6>we face, and I actually think we will come out

0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:01.960
<v Speaker 6>of this because I really believe when I'm encouraging these

0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:07.200
<v Speaker 6>the politicians to do, it's really directly in their interests here.

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:09.600
<v Speaker 6>I've been studying this for a long time, and I'm

0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:13.760
<v Speaker 6>articulating a strategy many of them have never heard of before.

0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:15.920
<v Speaker 6>They've all been told, well, you just want to talk

0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:19.240
<v Speaker 6>the violent person out of it. I'm not telling you

0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.239
<v Speaker 6>that's the way to go that. I'm telling you that

0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:25.359
<v Speaker 6>is a pretty much a dead end. You've got to

0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 6>focus on the part of the public that's already upho

0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:34.240
<v Speaker 6>its political violence and move them and their anger, which

0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:38.440
<v Speaker 6>many of them have, in this more productive direction. Now

0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:42.720
<v Speaker 6>we can actually solve some of these problems as opposed

0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.360
<v Speaker 6>to we're going to get violent about it and that's

0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:46.400
<v Speaker 6>not going to solve anything.

0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 4>Folks.

0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:51.879
<v Speaker 1>This has been completely fascinating and illuminating. Thank you so

0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:53.480
<v Speaker 1>much for joining us.

0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:57.680
<v Speaker 6>I love this conversation. I just really appreciate how much

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:01.400
<v Speaker 6>you folks really are looking to have a different kind

0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:04.879
<v Speaker 6>of conversation about this. It really speaks you know, this

0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 6>is one of the reasons we're going to have that

0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 6>soft landing.

0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:19.520
<v Speaker 1>So that was illuminating. I do understand a little bit better,

0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.520
<v Speaker 1>not just the rise in political violence, but also just

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:28.119
<v Speaker 1>generally why it's been happening and response. Yeah, response to

0:19:28.160 --> 0:19:30.639
<v Speaker 1>it as well. Quick note to the listener, thank you

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:33.119
<v Speaker 1>for listening to this episode. I know it's not the

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 1>normal kind of episode of No Such Thing. Let us

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:37.439
<v Speaker 1>know how you feel about it, if we should be

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:38.480
<v Speaker 1>doing things like this.

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:43.400
<v Speaker 5>More reactions to the news in our future question mark, but.

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:48.159
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, thanks for listening. No Such Thing is produced by Manny,

0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:51.959
<v Speaker 1>Noah and Devin. The theme song was by me Manny.

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:55.520
<v Speaker 1>Thank you to our guest, Robert Page, professor at the

0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:59.479
<v Speaker 1>University of Chicago. For more, be sure to subscribe to

0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:02.960
<v Speaker 1>No Such Dot Show and feel free to reach out

0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:09.080
<v Speaker 1>to us at Manny noahdevinat gmail dot com. We're off

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 1>next week for Christmas, but we'll be back in two weeks.

0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:13.560
<v Speaker 1>See then,