WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Steve Auth & Jim Bianco

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single Best Idea. We're keeping it shorter. We're hoping that

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<v Speaker 2>you like single Best Idea. The idea is a quick

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<v Speaker 2>little vignette almost of what the show did. We have

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<v Speaker 2>an any given show, no less than eight conversations even

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<v Speaker 2>ten where we could use them in Single Best Idea.

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<v Speaker 2>But we want this to be an add on to

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<v Speaker 2>the other podcasts that you're listening to at Bloomberg, like

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<v Speaker 2>Odd Lots, like David Gurr is the Big Take. Many

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<v Speaker 2>others as well, including you know those around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Huge impact by podcasts we're out of YouTube podcast that

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<v Speaker 2>seems to be growing, expanding exponentially. Also Apple podcasts as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Steve aff joins from Federated Arimez in speaking to him, Well,

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<v Speaker 2>it's that time of year. I didn't realize how late

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<v Speaker 2>Thanksgiving is, how short the holiday season is. We're in

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<v Speaker 2>to your end analysis and I asked Steve Oth what

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<v Speaker 2>does he do with all those seventy page look Ahead

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five reports.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we know most of them, as you could guess, Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>and we have them in our offices and we ask

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<v Speaker 1>them to put away their forecasts, and we really just

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<v Speaker 1>have a dialogue. I do get a lot. There's some

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<v Speaker 1>really smart people working on Wall Street on the cell side,

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<v Speaker 1>and if you get underneath their forecasts and charts, start

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<v Speaker 1>going back and forth with them on the drivers of it.

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<v Speaker 1>We find that helpful, that dialogue. But we do a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of our own work obviously. I mean we've got

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and sixty investment analysts working in our organization,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, we do a lot of our own

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<v Speaker 1>work on where we're heading. But we do it more

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<v Speaker 1>to kind of suggest a direction as opposed to, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a precise date and time that a market's going to

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<v Speaker 1>hit a particular level.

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<v Speaker 2>Steve Boughs federators thrilled that he could come in today,

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<v Speaker 2>and of course talking about the three year, the five

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<v Speaker 2>year of you for it is enthusiasm for equities. Speaking

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<v Speaker 2>of that, Jim Bianco joined us today. I announced yesterday

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<v Speaker 2>Lindsay Piegsa is my Economist of the Year. Lindsay at

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<v Speaker 2>Stiefel has been just absolutely heated that this is a

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<v Speaker 2>FED that will come down slower than so many expected.

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<v Speaker 2>She's been really out there visible on that, and part

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<v Speaker 2>of that theory that thinking came from say Mohammadalarian at

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<v Speaker 2>the University of Cambridge, and also from Jim Bianco it

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<v Speaker 2>a shop in Chicago. This is a really important conversation,

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<v Speaker 2>and this harkens back to John writing at bear Stearn's

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<v Speaker 2>years ago. There's this presumption out there that level or

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<v Speaker 2>rising interest rates harms consumption and harms the spirit of

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<v Speaker 2>finance and investment in America. Jim Bianco pushes against that.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a perception in the world that rising interestrates are bad.

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<v Speaker 3>Boiling interest rates are good. Rising interest rates not not

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<v Speaker 3>necessary bad. If the economy is.

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<v Speaker 4>Growing at a fast nominal rate, like five percent, then

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<v Speaker 4>that's where they should be, is at five or six percent,

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<v Speaker 4>and that is an environment where businesses can be profitable.

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<v Speaker 4>Stock markets can go up, people can get employed even

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<v Speaker 4>though you have five or six percent interest rates, and

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<v Speaker 4>those retirees and pensioneers that are looking for fixed income

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<v Speaker 4>could actually get a fixed income. So it's not necessarily

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<v Speaker 4>a bad thing if we have a strong nominal growth

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<v Speaker 4>environment and we have higher rates. If you get higher

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<v Speaker 4>rates because of purely inflation, that's a problem, but higher

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<v Speaker 4>is not always bad.

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<v Speaker 2>Jim Bianco from Chicago Bianco at Research and again he

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<v Speaker 2>reiterates as we heard from doctor Pigs at Stefel, that

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<v Speaker 2>this is a FED that's going to pauzzle on the way.

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<v Speaker 2>He was bold, he said there is no soft landing.

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<v Speaker 2>There's just no landing. We're out on YouTube podcasts and

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<v Speaker 2>of course a subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast and good morning

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<v Speaker 2>on your commute across America from New York City. Single

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<v Speaker 2>best Idea