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Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros MLB. This

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Speaker 1: is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I am Chris Welsh. That

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Speaker 1: is Joe Alrico. We are not in the same room

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Speaker 1: for this week, but what we are here to do

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Speaker 1: is talk about twenty twenty six rank risers. So what

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Speaker 1: exactly does that mean. We are looking at players that

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Speaker 1: have taken some significant rank jumps from twenty five to

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Speaker 1: twenty six that if maybe you haven't been deep in

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Speaker 1: the fantasy baseball streets, it might surprise you might be

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Speaker 1: surprised based off of some early ADPs that are floating

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Speaker 1: out there where some of these players are going and

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Speaker 1: where some of these players are ranked, for good or

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Speaker 1: for worse. We are going to have those discussions, and

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Speaker 1: mister Joe Rico, we are going to be going positionally.

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Speaker 1: So we got a lot of players to cover. But

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Speaker 1: it is good to see you, even though it is

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Speaker 1: not in person like our last live episode.

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Speaker 2: There's nothing like doing a show in person in front

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Speaker 2: of the live studio audience of I think we got

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Speaker 2: up to twelve or fifteen thousand people in the studio audience.

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Speaker 3: Now I'm kidding, it was It was a great show.

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Speaker 1: Though areas well the fifteen maybe not thousand.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great time every year.

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Speaker 2: If you guys want to come out next year, see

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Speaker 2: us do a show, hang out at the bar, go

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Speaker 2: to some panels, go to some baseball games. It is

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Speaker 2: the best weekend of the year. Sad to be back,

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Speaker 2: but happy to be talking baseball again. We're really ramping

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Speaker 2: things up BlackBook chapters or in the rear view, So

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Speaker 2: let's get it going.

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Speaker 1: My friend and a good thing about the First Pitch

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Speaker 1: Conference and everything. It kind of kicks off a lot

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Speaker 1: of there's a lot of early season draft there's tons

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Speaker 1: of draft discussion, and it helps the early curation of

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Speaker 1: like what ADPs are going to end up looking like.

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Speaker 1: So in this episode, we're going to be referencing some

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Speaker 1: of the NFBC ADPs, which are like the earliest of

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Speaker 1: early drafts. Obviously, we're going to tell you a little

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Speaker 1: bit later about why fantasy pros are going to be

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Speaker 1: able to help you out in the MLB season with

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Speaker 1: the Draft Wizard. But you know, we got to get

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Speaker 1: all the things open up and getting rocking. NFBC are

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Speaker 1: the first collection of drafts, and it kind of gives

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Speaker 1: us an insight not only into like a obviously where

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Speaker 1: we are going to rank players that is its own thing,

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Speaker 1: but where players are going versus kind of like the

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Speaker 1: higher stakes, the really really early adopters of fantasy baseball,

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Speaker 1: and those ADPs are going to probably give a little

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Speaker 1: narrative to what ranks are going to look like. So again,

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Speaker 1: these are the twenty twenty six rank risers. Players that

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Speaker 1: have made some significant jumps, maybe as a surprise to you,

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Speaker 1: maybe some not so much, whether it is their overall

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Speaker 1: or it is positionally where they're at, because there are

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Speaker 1: some surprising ones. So as you said, let's jump into it,

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Speaker 1: let's start looking at some of the rank risers, and

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Speaker 1: we will start with catchers. And there is no catcher

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Speaker 1: to talk about other than cal Rally at the very top.

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Speaker 1: It's very funny. Actually, during the AFL, I had a

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Speaker 1: conversation with the Scottsdale Scorpions manager, former catcher Renee Rivera.

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Speaker 1: We were discussing the day the MVPs were awarded. Shoheo

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Speaker 1: Tani had just got the award. I went to Renee

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Speaker 1: because he asked, He's like, who do you think is

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Speaker 1: going to win? And I'm like, I think it's Cal

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Speaker 1: and as a catcher, he said, I think Judge I

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Speaker 1: was like, WHOA, really all the offensive numbers and I'm like,

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Speaker 1: what about defensive war And he kind of simplistically said,

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Speaker 1: He's like, he didn't win a Gold Glove. And at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, it's hard to win, you know,

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Speaker 1: with the sub average, with a sub two fifty average.

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Speaker 1: But we're not playing in those streets here. We're not

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Speaker 1: playing in the you know, the MVP award case. We're

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Speaker 1: playing in the fantasy streets where Cal Rawley as a catcher.

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Speaker 1: As a catcher, had almost six hundred at bats, sixty homers,

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Speaker 1: also stole fourteen bases, a three point fifty nine OBP,

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Speaker 1: which laid him up there pretty solid. One hundred and

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Speaker 1: ten runs, one hundred and twenty five RBI. Those are

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Speaker 1: three elite categories, almost elite for a catcher in stolen bases,

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Speaker 1: a suboptimal batting average. But maybe the kind of most

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Speaker 1: undertalked about piece of this is he played like an

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Speaker 1: everyday regular because of some of that DH was going

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Speaker 1: out there, so he had significant at bats. He comes

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Speaker 1: in with an eighty p early on top twenty eighteen overall.

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Speaker 1: So the question to you, Jo Rico, Is cal Raley

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Speaker 1: going to be worth this early rank rise in ADP

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Speaker 1: that's being put out there.

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Speaker 2: I can't see it, And I think I should preface

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Speaker 2: this by saying NFBC leagues or two catch or four mats,

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Speaker 2: and I think a lot of people are playing with

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Speaker 2: one catcher, so that will naturally push the prices up

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Speaker 2: a little bit. But even in casual leagues, I could

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Speaker 2: see cal Rawley being a second round pick, and heck,

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Speaker 2: maybe even a first round pick. Some of the time

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Speaker 2: you can see minimum and maximum pick on the NFBC.

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Speaker 2: He's got as high as pick six, so there are

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Speaker 2: people willing to take him in the first round. I

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Speaker 2: can kind of get behind the logic in two catcher leagues,

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Speaker 2: but honestly, I don't even think I can, because this

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Speaker 2: is a massive career year. And whenever guys go off

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Speaker 2: and have these explosive seasons. Matt Olson from a couple

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Speaker 2: of years ago comes to mind when he was a

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Speaker 2: number two Fantasy player. There's a lot of examples of

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Speaker 2: guys just having one massive season expecting the repeat is

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Speaker 2: probably not wise. Cal Rawley could do exactly what he

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Speaker 2: did in twenty twenty four Again, he could did thirty

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Speaker 2: four homers, score seventy five times, drive in one hundred runs,

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Speaker 2: and it would be a very good year for him,

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Speaker 2: and it would still be very disappointing. With the second

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Speaker 2: round ADP, I think you have to expect some regression.

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Speaker 2: Could he hit forty or fifty home runs again? He could,

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Speaker 2: but you have to consider he's in a bad ballpark.

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Speaker 2: That is something that will impact him at least a

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Speaker 2: little bit. Right if he was playing in Cincinnati or Colorado,

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Speaker 2: that sixty home run total might have been up to

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Speaker 2: seventy home runs. But being in Seattle does curb your

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Speaker 2: offensive upside a little bit. I know it didn't this

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Speaker 2: past season, but if you're projecting going forward, especially with

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Speaker 2: the second round pick, cal Rawly just feels too expensive

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Speaker 2: for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it's a great point as should

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Speaker 1: be noted because we're only going to do one other

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Speaker 1: catcher here is NFBC does play up catchers, of course.

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Speaker 1: Is that cal Rawley, though, is the one exception to

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Speaker 1: the rule where he is the guy that is going

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Speaker 1: in the second round. I did an early draft on

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Speaker 1: in this league. Everywhere I've seen like he is going

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Speaker 1: on the back end of second rounds Now, it might

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Speaker 1: not be eighteen. You know, if you're playing in a

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Speaker 1: fifteen team league, it might be in the mid twenties.

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Speaker 1: But people are making the commitment to it. And I

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Speaker 1: think he does have an advantage in that he plays

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Speaker 1: a massive amount of games. He's going to hit a

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Speaker 1: bunch of homers. He's going to hit in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the lineup. You know, they brought Naylor back the

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Speaker 1: things like you mentioned. Though, to be consider thirty two

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Speaker 1: of his homers did come on the road. He hit

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Speaker 1: us considerably worse at home. He ended up hitting only

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Speaker 1: where did it go?

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Speaker 3: I just had it.

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Speaker 1: He ended up hitting two twenty five versus two sixty

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Speaker 1: seven home versus road splits. It's a really suppressive offensive ballpark.

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Speaker 1: It's just a really big price to pay for a catcher.

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Speaker 1: I can kind of buy into some of it, even

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Speaker 1: in single catcher formats because from the Joe would say

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Speaker 1: an RPV standpoint, But you just look an evaluation, he

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Speaker 1: is so much better than the next player. You have that,

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Speaker 1: but you're gonna have to come to terms with that.

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Speaker 1: This is a year where catchers are not going to

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Speaker 1: come at a cheaper cost, even in singular catcher leagues,

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Speaker 1: cal rally has raised the bar and the next guy

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Speaker 1: on the list is another one of those. Because the

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Speaker 1: thing we've always talked about is we're trying to pinpoint

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Speaker 1: players that either can positionally stay out there longer. It's

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Speaker 1: the guys that only play, you know, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: ten or fifteen games at hole this back in the valuation,

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Speaker 1: another one of those was Ben Rice. Ben Rice coming

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Speaker 1: in as the second rank riser here and ADP inside

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Speaker 1: the top one hundred. Sighting though that this is like

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Speaker 1: a two catcher format, so he's going to be pushed

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Speaker 1: up a little bit. Ben Rice last year hit twenty

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Speaker 1: six homers, two fifty five OBP was okay, seventy four runs,

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Speaker 1: but this is in less than five hundred at bats,

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Speaker 1: and he made a pretty big move to being catcher

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Speaker 1: while also being a first baseman. Regardless of where he plays.

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Speaker 1: The only thing that we care about is if he

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Speaker 1: cannot be in any type of a platoon and he

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Speaker 1: can have significant at bats, but he's gonna have some

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Speaker 1: position eligibility. He's a savant king on the hitting profile,

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Speaker 1: is Ben Rice a little bit more your speed? And

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Speaker 1: what do you think about him as a rank riser.

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Speaker 1: There could be upwards in single catcher leagues of like

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Speaker 1: three to four catchers, which I don't like. Nobody tell

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Speaker 1: Casey Bubba, But is Ben Rice one of those that

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Speaker 1: you can stomach for his new cost?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Ben Rice is part of the reason why I

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Speaker 2: don't see myself taking Cay, not just Ben Rice. But

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Speaker 2: there are a lot of great catchers on the rise

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Speaker 2: that we'll talk about over the next few months. Augustine Ramirez,

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Speaker 2: Drake Baldwin. You can buy back in on Adley Rutchman,

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Speaker 2: Samuel Bissaio.

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Speaker 3: Kyle Teel.

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Speaker 2: Catcher is deeper than it's ever been and Ben Rice,

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Speaker 2: you know, you might see, oh, he's the fifth catcher

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Speaker 2: off the board, might give you some pause. It is

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Speaker 2: absolutely deserved. You can kind of relate it to what

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Speaker 2: Wilson Contreras had going for him last year, where he

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Speaker 2: has catcher eligibility, he's going to be playing first base,

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Speaker 2: You're gonna probably get five hundred and fifty to six

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Speaker 2: hundred plate appearances. And the data for Ben Rice was

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Speaker 2: just off the charts right twenty six home runs, especially

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Speaker 2: in the second half. Ben Rice really took off, but

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Speaker 2: was not overmatched at the plate at all, eighteen percent

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Speaker 2: strikeout rate, nine percent walk rate. The one thirty three

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Speaker 2: WRC plus really does stand out because that was the

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Speaker 2: same number that Jose Ramirez had. It was better than Tattoos,

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Speaker 2: so it was better than Harper, it was better than

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Speaker 2: Bobby Witt Junior.

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Speaker 3: Ben Rice.

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's better hitterer than those guys going forward,

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Speaker 2: but that shows you the ceiling that he has a

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent barrel rate, a fifty five percent heart hit rate.

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Speaker 2: He is such a polished hitter, and you know I

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Speaker 2: love If I'm speaking about a Yankee with this type

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Speaker 2: of praise, you know I must love them. He makes

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Speaker 2: a ton of contact in the zone. He does not chase,

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Speaker 2: he does not swing and miss a lot.

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Speaker 3: He's a star. I think Ben Rice is a star.

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Speaker 2: And honestly, if he finishes the number one or two

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Speaker 2: catcher next year, I wouldn't be surprised by it.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't either. I do got to say, though, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you want to we're doing ranked risers. If you

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Speaker 1: want to look at somebody that has fallen in the ranks.

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Speaker 1: One of the reasons I just can't buy the early cost.

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Speaker 1: I mean and again NFPC is a little bit skewed

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Speaker 1: because of the two catcher thing. But there are seven

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Speaker 1: catchers inside the top one hundred. There's legitimately though, I

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Speaker 1: think four to five of those could go inside the

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Speaker 1: top one hundred. And that ends with ben Rice. Ben

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Speaker 1: Rice is the fifth catcher ranked catcher, so that's something

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Speaker 1: in the rank rising you need to know. He's a

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Speaker 1: top five catcher in here. I think they all had

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Speaker 1: in single catcher to go. But is Ali Richmond Aliy

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Speaker 1: Richmond has fallen to the eleventh catcher on this list.

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Speaker 1: There's trade rumors. I know Sammy Besio is out there,

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Speaker 1: but and by the way, Besio comes in at thirteen.

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Speaker 1: I think catchers are too plentiful and when the cost

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Speaker 1: is too rich, I'm not buying a lot of the

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Speaker 1: rank rising. But get used to it, because yes, you're

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Speaker 1: going to see William Contreras up there. But the top five,

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Speaker 1: they're new names. Cal Raley, Sheyle, Angeliers, Hunter Goodman, ben Rice.

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Speaker 1: Those are your new big in catchers that you're going

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Speaker 1: to be paying a big price on. Speaking of a

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Speaker 1: big price, let's move to first base rank risers, and

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Speaker 1: we are going big right out the Gates because it's

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Speaker 1: time for you to know and understand that, ladies and gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz is going to go off as the first

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Speaker 1: first baseman in a majority of leagues. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to say in every single league, because I think there

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Speaker 1: are circumstances where as we're recording this, you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: Pete Alonso could go to a destination that changes people's minds,

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Guerrero in general. But Nick Kurtz is coming off

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Speaker 1: of a Rookie of the Year season that blew our

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Speaker 1: minds just barely over four hundred bats, hit thirty six

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Speaker 1: homers with a two ninety average, a three eighty plus OBP.

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Speaker 1: And you want to talk about the sliders of baseball Savant,

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Speaker 1: it's through the roof, top two percentile of the league

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Speaker 1: barrel percentage and over fifty percent hard hit rate. The

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Speaker 1: dude swings the bat at one of the fastest paces

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Speaker 1: in all of baseball and by the way, top ten

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Speaker 1: percentile in walks. He's a monster in that minor league

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Speaker 1: ballpark as well. He is taken the top spot, so

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Speaker 1: like cal Raley being the new number one catcher, a

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Speaker 1: top sixteen, seventeen, top fifteen. Let's say that's a first

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Speaker 1: round pick in a roto league. Do you buy this

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Speaker 1: new found rank rising value of Nick Kurtz.

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Speaker 2: I think this is my least favorite price of the

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Speaker 2: year to this point, and it's nothing really against Nick Kurtz,

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Speaker 2: but the market has lost its mind. Everything you said

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Speaker 2: I agree on. In terms of the data, a lot

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Speaker 2: of it is very impressive. He hits the crap out

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Speaker 2: of the ball. He was on a close to fifty

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Speaker 2: home run pace in his rookie season. The park does

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Speaker 2: help a little bit, but even on the road, Nick

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Speaker 2: Kurtz was great this year. Where I have pause is

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Speaker 2: the price he's going ahead of, and not just in

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Speaker 2: terms of first baseman, but in terms of all players

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Speaker 2: that he is going ahead of. If you're taking Nick Kurtz,

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Speaker 2: you're passing up on Kyle Tucker, cam and Narrow Hooley,

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Speaker 2: Ja Vladdie Chisholm, Kyle Schwarber, Yamamoto. There are so many

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Speaker 2: stars that are going directly behind him. I just can't

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Speaker 2: see myself taking a guy who is at best a

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Speaker 2: four category contributor. He's not going to steal basis. But

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Speaker 2: I also think the batting average is not going to

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Speaker 2: be as high as it was this year. He was

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Speaker 2: two ninety with a three sixty four Babbitt. The Steamer

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Speaker 2: projections have him at two fifty eight. I think that's

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Speaker 2: about right, if not even a little bit bullish. I

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Speaker 2: think Nick Kurtz is probably a two forty to two

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Speaker 2: to fifty hitter. Can't forget that he struck out thirty

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Speaker 2: one percent of the time, doesn't have great contact numbers,

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Speaker 2: sixty seven percent zone contact is not great. I think

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Speaker 2: that he is going to be a really good hitter.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a good chance we see thirty home

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Speaker 2: runs in a two forty batting average from him this year,

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Speaker 2: which would be really solid, but it's not worth the

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Speaker 2: first round pick.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The thing that's going to open a lot of people's

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Speaker 1: minds is you mentioned I think you were taking Babbitt

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Speaker 1: but too forty eight expected batting average. So that's a

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Speaker 1: significant drop, like almost fifty point drop on what was expected.

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Speaker 1: He he highly overperformed against fastballs in general, so if

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Speaker 1: that does tick down. The thing that makes it tough

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Speaker 1: is like versus Vlad, like he's kind of becoming He's

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Speaker 1: in this state of like is he Pie Alonso or

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Speaker 1: is he Lad. You know what I'm saying, like, is

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Speaker 1: he Vlad with the batting average in the bigger power

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Speaker 1: or is he no better than Pee Alonso? And you're

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Speaker 1: paying at the highest price for a young guy like this.

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Speaker 1: I also hate the strikeout rate. I do think this

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Speaker 1: is a pretty tough cost here. But he has jumped

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Speaker 1: up the ranks and taken over the top spot. His

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Speaker 1: true ADP was sixteen. He comes in around eighteen on

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Speaker 1: the list, so it's gonna be an early second round pick.

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Speaker 1: And if you're chasing, as many people have done, moving

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Speaker 1: away from speed, moving into high end power, this is

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Speaker 1: where this discussion comes in. We'll talk about obviously the

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Speaker 1: new third basement or the second third baseman on the list.

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Speaker 1: You want some elite power, you're gonna have to pay

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Speaker 1: up for it early on. And that's what Nick Kurtz

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Speaker 1: not only had, but the projected like where he was

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Speaker 1: pacing his pacing numbers of like forty five to fifty homers.

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Speaker 1: It's just we worry about the batting average strikeouts taking

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Speaker 1: some of that out. But he just like he barrels

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Speaker 1: a crap out of ball, puts the ball in the air.

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Speaker 1: Minor league ballpark there's a lot of factors that, like

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Speaker 1: they butt heads, which one is going to end up

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Speaker 1: winning that battle, which is a tough one.

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Speaker 2: I think a lot of it does come down to vibes,

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Speaker 2: though this is not like a data driven position to

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Speaker 2: take Nick Kurtz in the first round. If you're a

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Speaker 2: projection based person and you look at Steamer, which is

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Speaker 2: out right now, Vladdy is projected higher than him in

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Speaker 2: all five categories, with a fifty point advantage in batting average.

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Speaker 2: So unless you're looking at last year and thinking that

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Speaker 2: Nick Kurtz can continue to build on this every year,

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Speaker 2: I'd have a bit of trouble with that. He'd a

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Speaker 2: one to seventy WRC, plus the other players that had

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Speaker 2: that number last year, Judge and O'tani if you go

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Speaker 2: to twenty twenty four, Judge Soto Otani, if you go

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Speaker 2: to twenty twenty three Otani seeger Akunya, Like, it's very

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Speaker 2: rare to reach those heights. I think there's a chance

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Speaker 2: that Nick Kurtz's peak will end up being his rookie season,

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Speaker 2: which nobody wants to hear. But there's a good chance

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Speaker 2: he never reaches those heights.

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Speaker 3: Again.

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Speaker 1: Definitely doesn't want to hear that. By the way, I

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Speaker 1: will say Latty is the Steamer King though like every

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Speaker 1: single year he's just like the projection steamer King. Whether

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Speaker 1: he lives up or not, he always lives in that range. Yeh,

340
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Speaker 1: A really fascinating one. The second second basement, we're kind

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Speaker 1: of covering two players per position. The rank riser that

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Speaker 1: you're going to have to get to know. This is

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Speaker 1: a new top twelve starting first basement. So if you

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Speaker 1: play in a twelve man league, this is a starter

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Speaker 1: fifteen men league. It's obviously a starter. He comes in

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Speaker 1: as the twelfth first baseman on the list and ADP

347
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Speaker 1: just outside the top one hundred. Michael Busch has flown

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Speaker 1: up the ranks after hitting thirty four homers at for

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Speaker 1: stolen bases a two sixty one average. He ended up

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Speaker 1: having ninety RBI being put in a really good position.

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Speaker 1: We obviously don't know what this team is going to

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Speaker 1: look like into the coming year, but we do know

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Speaker 1: he's going to cost you a first overall spot of

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Speaker 1: your first basement, a starting spot, a top twelve. And

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Speaker 1: I would say you got a lot of the similar

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Speaker 1: names in this. You know, Harper, Olsen, there, Devers, is

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Speaker 1: now first baseman Vinnie Pasquentino. It's all the same guys,

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Speaker 1: and then Michael Bush is planted in. There's an argument

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Speaker 1: to say a thirty five home run essentially a thirty

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Speaker 1: five home run guy going outside the top one hundred.

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Speaker 1: When you're chasing for power, you're chasing the power of

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Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz, and then you're looking at a guy like

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Speaker 1: Michael Bush who didn't, you know, really come that far

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Speaker 1: off here has a higher expected batting average, lowered his

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Speaker 1: strikeout rate this past year, kind of same barrel gets

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Speaker 1: the ball in the air. There's a lot to like

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Speaker 1: about Michael Bush. He's rising up ranks. Do you like

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Speaker 1: the rank rise for him?

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Speaker 2: He is so impressive and he's a guy. This happens

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Speaker 2: every year. I didn't have any shares in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: so I didn't truly realize how impressive he was. But

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Speaker 2: strikeout rate was cut significantly for the third consecutive year,

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Speaker 2: from thirty three to twenty eight down to twenty three.

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Speaker 2: The WRC plus went from one eighteen to one forty.

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Speaker 2: He increased the hard hit numbers across the board while

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Speaker 2: maintaining a seventeen degree launch angle, which is pretty close

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Speaker 2: to ideal. The barrel went from eleven to seventeen. That's

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Speaker 2: a huge jump. Now, I was talking about Kurtz's contact

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Speaker 2: rate seventy six per contact in the zone. Bush is

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Speaker 2: eighty five percent contact rate in the zone. That's a massive,

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Speaker 2: massive difference. He does not chase the way you'd expect

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Speaker 2: for a big power hitter. Twenty three percent O swing

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Speaker 2: is really good. He's cut the swinging strike rate every year.

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Speaker 2: He lives in a great lineup. I love Michael Bush.

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Speaker 2: I really love Michael Bush. I haven't done a full

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Speaker 2: first base eval yet, but I feel like he's going

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Speaker 2: to be a pretty big target for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, pull the ball in the air twenty two percent

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Speaker 1: of the time, which was on the upper echelont also

390
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Speaker 1: didn't have any really big show. He actually underperformed against

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Speaker 1: fastballs while kind of maintaining what he actually did to

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Speaker 1: expected numbers. So pull the ball in the air, barrel it.

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Speaker 1: These are all really really great things with it. If

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Speaker 1: you've got like aggressive guys like Nico Horner and Peteka

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Speaker 1: Armstrong in front for RBI opportunities, Michael Bush is going

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Speaker 1: to be kind of a hidden name. And guess what

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Speaker 1: he is at the top of the board on the

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Speaker 1: rank list for first Basement, Second baser coming up. But

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Speaker 1: Second base. Let me start just by telling you, in

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Speaker 1: the world of rank risers, second base is bo rutal.

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Speaker 1: If you have not looked into you are going to

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Speaker 1: see some new stuff. As a matter of fact, there's

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Speaker 1: a new number one overall second basement. Kaateel Marte has

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Speaker 1: kind of had that mold for a while this year

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Speaker 1: according to early ADPs, that has been taken over by

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Speaker 1: Jazz Chishom. Kateel is still there. There's a group of

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Speaker 1: some of the players that you know, but there is

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Speaker 1: a new name on this list, at least from the

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Speaker 1: top ten perspective, that are going to surprise some people.

431
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 1: Bryce Terrang, Bryce Terrang big stolen bases, started to make

432
00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 1: some big moves. As far as his offensive profile, he

433
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 1: is just outside the top fifty, but he is the

434
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 1: third second baseman on the board. Eighteen homers, twenty four

435
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: stolen bases. He hit two eighty eight this year. Good

436
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,639
Speaker 1: obp almost scored one hundred runs, the hitting profile. It

437
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 1: looked like he changed the profile of who he was

438
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: from being like the old Jacob Wilson Luisa Rise like

439
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: low barrel, low bats, all that low stuff, and then

440
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 1: he's starting to get the ball in the air more

441
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 1: he hit the ball. He almost doubled his hard hit percentage,

442
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 1: barrel percentage tripled. Bryce Terrang as a third third basement.

443
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,479
Speaker 1: Is this a testament to and how bad this is?

444
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 1: Or is his rank rise justified?

445
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 2: It's kind of both, but Bryce Terrang deserves a lot

446
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 2: of respect. He was the number one second basement in

447
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five and it wasn't even particularly close. When

448
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 2: you like a player raiders twenty two dollars and twenty

449
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 2: cents compared to Jazz at eighteen, even more than a

450
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 2: four dollars difference. That's the same difference between Jazz and

451
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 2: Brandon Lau Jorge Polonko. He was number one by a mile.

452
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 2: And I wasn't really all that interested in Bryce train

453
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 2: coming into the year. I didn't believe in the power.

454
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 2: It had thirteen home runs combined in close to three

455
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 2: hundred games leading up to this year, and then he

456
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 2: just went off. I think it was August where he

457
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 2: hit ten home runs in the month, and he just

458
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 2: showed that he had that capability in him. Like going

459
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 2: from a twenty nine percent hard hit the forty seven

460
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 2: in one year is ridiculous. The barrel rate from two

461
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 2: point four to seven point nine in just the span

462
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 2: of a few months, Like, those games do not really

463
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 2: happen very often, and he didn't sacrifice any of his

464
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,120
Speaker 2: real contact ability. In fact, he hit for a higher

465
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 2: batting average than he ever did before two eighty eight.

466
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, you were probably hoping for more steels if

467
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 2: you drafted Bryce to Rang you had fifty the year prior,

468
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 2: but you cut that in half. You had a bunch

469
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 2: of homers, runs, Ribby's and batting average. I think everybody

470
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 2: is taking that trade off. He's my number three ranked

471
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 2: second basement heading into the year. I've just been doing

472
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 2: all kinds of second base work for the Black Book.

473
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 2: He's number three for me. I think it's justified. But

474
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 2: the position is pretty bad as well.

475
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I got to tell you, I don't this is

476
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 1: not one that I really love. Like is he the

477
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 1: third second baseman?

478
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 3: Like?

479
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably, But I don't know if if I'm a

480
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 1: complete sell on the full bore power. I will say

481
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 1: going from twenty nine to forty seven percent hard hit

482
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: rate absolutely phenomenal. I love that he increased his barrel rate,

483
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 1: but the problem is is like it's he doesn't get

484
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:43,640
Speaker 1: the ball in the air, he doesn't pull the ball

485
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 1: in the air. The barrel is still kind of blow optimal.

486
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 1: He started striking out a little bit more. He's a

487
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 1: round to two sixty hitter. Is he still worth it

488
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: if he's a fifteen to twenty five guy, You know,

489
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: he's still fifty bases a year ago and the base

490
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: stealing kind of ticked back down. Now if he's a

491
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 1: fifteen forty it's a different discussion for sure, But I'm

492
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: not sure it's a justifiable range of value that I

493
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: really like. But despite that, you like him, I don't

494
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: like him. He's rising in ranks and he is going

495
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: to open a lot of eyes, but maybe not more

496
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 1: than this, and this might I'm not trying to be

497
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 1: negative about it, but you want a testament to what

498
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: the position looks like. As mentioned Jazz and Couteller at

499
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 1: the top, you've got Terrain, Yes, you've got Altove coming

500
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 1: in at six though, is Luke Kishel which might be

501
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 1: kind of a surprise now he is going outside the

502
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 1: top one hundred. The current ADPs, there are only three

503
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 1: second basemen going inside the top one hundred, so understand

504
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 1: the sixth second baseman is like a post one twenty

505
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: five player. Luke Keishall last year and just under two

506
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: hundred bots did hit four homers with fourteen stolen bases.

507
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 1: He had a three hundred batting average. He's expected batting

508
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: average was closer into the two sixties. He's kind of

509
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: got the to me, this is the old school Bryce

510
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 1: terrang profile, and I think you know, I don't. I

511
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,679
Speaker 1: don't know what's steamer how on it, But like the

512
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 1: numbers look like they would pace closer to thirty five

513
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: to forty with twelve homers, So if you want to

514
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: pair it down, ten homers thirty stolen bases is actually

515
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 1: not bad at the current cost. But again, this is

516
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: the sixth second baseman, so we don't have to talk theory,

517
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 1: which is probably telling you you might want to target

518
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 1: one of the elite second basement if you get a chance,

519
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 1: unless you really do buy some of the theoretical value,

520
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: like Luke Keishall outside the top one twenty five what

521
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 1: do you think about his rank rise, which is absolutely

522
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:37,479
Speaker 1: dramatic above Ozzie Albi's, above Jackson Holiday and you know,

523
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 1: above pretty much everybody but five guys.

524
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,199
Speaker 2: It's a little bit too aggressive for me. I'm a

525
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 2: sucker for a track record, and you guys have probably

526
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 2: picked up on this even just over the course of

527
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 2: the show. Guys like Nick Kurtz who haven't done it

528
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 2: a ton before, kind of make me nervous. And then

529
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 2: you got Luke keishell less than fifty games in the show.

530
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,719
Speaker 2: I just can't see myself taking him, taking him at

531
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 2: all this year because he needs to be your staring

532
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: second basement unless you took somebody who in the terrang

533
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 2: Marte Chisholm group and then you can put him in

534
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 2: your middle infield or whatever.

535
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 3: But he's starting for you. He's starting player on your roster.

536
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 2: And I don't know how great I feel about that,

537
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: considering he doesn't hit the ball terribly hard thirty one

538
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 2: percent hard hit rate. I'm being charitable with that description.

539
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: He doesn't hit the ball hard at all, five percent

540
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: barrel rate. The lineup around him is not great at all.

541
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 2: Minnesota is a team that sold a lot of pieces

542
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: at the deadline. I don't think that they're looking like

543
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 2: a good team heading into twenty twenty six. And I

544
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 2: think if you're looking at a guy who could potentially

545
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 2: hit you fewer than ten homers, I just can't get

546
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 2: that excited about it. Even if he does steal thirty

547
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 2: thirty five bases. This is an expensive price for a

548
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: massive unknown player in a bad lineup, so I can't

549
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 2: really see myself paying it that often.

550
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe it's like I'm a tiny bit defensive of it,

551
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 1: just because, like, if I can get thirty plus stolen bases,

552
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 1: I don't like the ten homers. Like, honestly, a guy

553
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: I would probably take a shot on a Jackson holiday

554
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: behind him a Sadana Rafael that's got just like more

555
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 1: potential productions. But Keishow's a full representation of people chasing

556
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: stolen bases, And I just don't think we have to

557
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: chase stolen bases like we've done in the past. I

558
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: mean you could if you want no homers with stolen bases,

559
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 1: you could wait fifty more picks and get exab edwards. Yeah.

560
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: I mean, if I was like Aabairo were to get

561
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 1: a gig, that's kind of the same thing. So yeah,

562
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 1: I guess, like in general, maybe you're not You're kind

563
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 1: of on the right space of it. But it's like

564
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 1: he's a little bit he's like a Walmart version of

565
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 1: Nico Horner, or you could say, a cheaper version of

566
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: Nico Horner. The problem is he's like one round lower

567
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 1: than Horner, so he should get prime spots in the lineup,

568
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: but there's just not enough good players in there. So yeah,

569
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 1: I guess at the end of the day, the rank

570
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: rise feels a little bit odd, but it doesn't matter.

571
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 1: He is a dramatic rank rise at the second base position,

572
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: and you know you are just going to have to

573
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: come to terms with it. Let's go to shortstop. Shortstops

574
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 1: a little bit beefier. But there are a couple of

575
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,919
Speaker 1: players that are going to shock some eyes when you

576
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: start to see what their valuation looks like. And the

577
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: first one up is zach Netto. Obviously, if you've fostered

578
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 1: zach Netto, you're not completely surprised by it. He does

579
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: miss time, but he was able to get five hundred

580
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: bats last year with a twenty six twenty six season,

581
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 1: twenty six homers, twenty seven stolen bases. His batting average

582
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: is always kind of slunked a little bit, which you'd

583
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: like to be higher. But he had eighty two runs,

584
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 1: So if you start pacing out the floor, seems like

585
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: he's a twenty five to twenty five guy, and you

586
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: probably can get you know, sixty to seventy RBI eighty

587
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 1: to ninety runs if things were to work out in

588
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 1: a positive range, maybe he's a thirty thirty guy with

589
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: one hundred runs. I mean, that's kind of what we

590
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 1: end up looking at with him from a profile perspective.

591
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: Not a big OBP guy. He did barrel up the

592
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: ball and hit it hard forty six and a half

593
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: percent hard hit percentage, fourteen percent barrel. Those are things

594
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 1: that we like. He gets the ball in the air

595
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 1: and he pulls it, so that's what creates kind of

596
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: like a really good floor for him to keep going.

597
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: His EIGHTYP is inside the top thirty five, though he

598
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: is the sixth shortstop off the board, but that is

599
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: a top thirty five overall price. What do you think

600
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: about the rise of zach Netto.

601
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 2: I think it's totally justified, and I think that he

602
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 2: is a borderline fantasy stud at this point.

603
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 3: And he's one of the rare.

604
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 2: Cases of the guy who got hurt in the offseason

605
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 2: and if you've paid to draft him well injured, it

606
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 2: actually paid off for you. Usually, if a guy gets

607
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: hurt in the off season you draft him, that's just

608
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: going to be a year of trouble.

609
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 3: Shane McClanahan.

610
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: But zack Netto even in one hundred and twenty eight

611
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 2: games twenty six and twenty six. You mentioned the runs

612
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: at eighty two for the Angels. Eighty two runs in

613
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty eight games. I think that he

614
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 2: is about as safe of an option as you're gonna

615
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 2: find at shortstop, especially if you don't want to pay

616
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 2: up for those elite, elite guys price wise Henderson, Lindor Turner,

617
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 2: Della Cruz, Bobby Witt. Zach Netto sitting right there twenty

618
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 2: five twenty five, like you said, is probably the floor.

619
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 2: The swing and miss issues are not what I really

620
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 2: want to see. Twenty seven percent strikeout rate. It's backed

621
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,719
Speaker 2: up by the swinging strike chases a little more than

622
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: I would like.

623
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 3: But he will run. The Angels do not care. They

624
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 3: will let him run.

625
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 2: He's been caught nineteen times in the last two years,

626
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: he's stolen fifty six bases. But they will not put

627
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 2: any light up on zach Netto. He could probably steal

628
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 2: thirty five bags in a whole year. The powers legit.

629
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 2: The lineup around him is not amazing, but as he

630
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 2: showed this year, didn't really hold him back on the

631
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 2: counting stats. I think zach Netto is one of my

632
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 2: favorite targets at short this year. In those projections one

633
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty three games from Steamer twenty six and

634
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: twenty seven, they think he'll do it exactly over again.

635
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I like that. The thing I'd love for

636
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: the whiffs to go down and the chase to go down.

637
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 1: One thing to watch is he did underperform against fastballs.

638
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: Nineteen of his twenty six homers came against fastballs, and

639
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 1: he underperformed from a batting average perspective. He hit two

640
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 1: seventy one expected was two ninety three, so you love that.

641
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: But he overperformed against secondary stuff while also whiffing more.

642
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,959
Speaker 1: So what I'm getting at is is like, is this

643
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: going to be a year where the league is going

644
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: to throw him less fastballs, more secondary stuff and the

645
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,239
Speaker 1: batting average kind of tracks down a little bit. His

646
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: XPA expected batting average is two fifty four, so it

647
00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: just supports his average if he can be a two

648
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: fifth guy, which he has kind of proven to be.

649
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: The power and stolen base. It's just there and something

650
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: that might shock your eyes, your nervous system. He's ranked

651
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: above Mooki Bets. Now, I know Mookie Bets obviously underperformed

652
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: this past year, but that's the level of reaction that

653
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: has happened this year. What Mookie Bets was last year

654
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 1: twenty homers, eight stolen bases in relatively a full season.

655
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: Zach Netto is going above him from the shortstop position.

656
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 1: So that's you know, a come to terms with situation, now,

657
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: got it? Yeah, we get it, and you know I'm

658
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: gonna I want complete players where I can. I think

659
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: you can make up the batting average with zach Netto,

660
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: and he kind of provides in all those spots. That's

661
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 1: why he's worth it. Big power, speed combo players are

662
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: players that you can make bets on when you look

663
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: at shortstop, though, there's kind of a tier of eight,

664
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: at least according to early ADP, there's eight shortstops qualified

665
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: according to the NFPC standards that are inside the top fifty.

666
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: Then there's a little gap. There's about a thirty pick

667
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: difference between the next shortstop, and that is where Graldo

668
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: Perdomo checks in. At shortstop nine, he is right outside

669
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 1: the top eighty. He is coming off of clearly a

670
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: career year where he got a couple first MVP votes

671
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: as well, twenty homers, twenty seven stolen bases, hit two

672
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: ninety with almost three ninety OBP phenomenal points. League type

673
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: of player because he doesn't chase, he doesn't strike out,

674
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 1: he doesn't whip. He walks a ton. This year he

675
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: was just outside of the strikeouts going down. He got

676
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: the ball in the air, he burrowed the ball up more,

677
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: and he had the best expected batting average of his career.

678
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 1: And he's got Ktell and Corman Carrol hitting in front

679
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: of him. But here's the question, is it warranted? Was

680
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: this a one off season? I think that's what people

681
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: are trying to come to terms with Perdomo. You know

682
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: he's going to be this baseline contact player, But do

683
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: you buy the homers, do you buy the stolen bases?

684
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: They're so off of his career markers. If you do it,

685
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 1: Luckily you don't have to pay a top seventy five price.

686
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: But he is a top ten shortstop according to early valuations.

687
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: So do you buy this rank rise for Heraldo Perdomo.

688
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 3: I mostly do.

689
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 2: I don't know that I buy into everything, And like

690
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 2: you mentioned, some of the things, like the speed is

691
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 2: a little bit interesting. He's a forty fourth percentile sprint speed.

692
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 2: Guy stealing twenty seven bases, I don't know if we're

693
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 2: going to see that again. Twenty home runs with a

694
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 2: six percent barrel rate, decent launch angle of.

695
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 3: Fifteen degrees, but he doesn't hit the ball terribly hard.

696
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 2: I would probably take the under on homers and stolen

697
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 2: bases now, just from a profile perspective, Guys who walk

698
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 2: more than they strike out, it's way to tug at

699
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 2: my heart strings. There was only two of them in

700
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball last year. It was Luisa Rise and

701
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 2: it was Roaldo Prodomo. Among qualified hitters, he is a

702
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: great overall hitter. I don't know how much that will

703
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 2: translate to fantasy success necessarily going forward, especially with the

704
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 2: top one hundred pick. A lot of this was probably

705
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 2: volume based. One hundred and sixty one game seven hundred

706
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 2: and twenty played appearances. That probably explains why he got

707
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: to one hundredribbies and ninety eight runs. Now, you could

708
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: probably speak better to this. Being a Diamondback fan, you've

709
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 2: seen him a lot more than I have. But I'm

710
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 2: probably taking the under on all five of his categories.

711
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 2: Maybe he could hit two ninety again, but this feels

712
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: like an under on everything situation. And yet I still

713
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 2: think he's not a bad pick, if that makes sense.

714
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: Even if he goes fourteen homers, seventeen stolen bases and

715
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: hits two ninety, I'd be okay with it.

716
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 3: But I think we're going to see some regression.

717
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, the other two categories. Talking about ninety eight runs

718
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: and one hundred RBI he had, which was sick. Yeah,

719
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: I think you want to approach a guy like Perdomo

720
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: playing the unders on it. But the thing you have

721
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 1: to remember is if he is hitting three, you've got Corman,

722
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: Carroll and Ktel in front. If he's leading off, you

723
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: have Katel and Corp Carol hitting behind. If he's hitting two,

724
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: you have one of Katel. You know, you get the

725
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 1: point here. There are run and are run and RBI

726
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 1: opportunities abound. Plus I think the stolen base numbers can continue.

727
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: I think it's maybe closer to twenty. You have to

728
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: figure out is if he's a fifteen to twenty guy

729
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: with ninety runs ninety rbi and he's hitting two ninety,

730
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 1: is that worth Yes, it's a juice worth the squeeze,

731
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: and I kind of think it is. He's a great

732
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 1: floor player. The reason you can buy in on the

733
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: floor is the low strikeouts, the low whiff numbers. By

734
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: the way, I mean as a switch hitter, hit three

735
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: twenty i'm sorry, three forty one against lefties, which you

736
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 1: love to see, while also hitting two sixty against righty's.

737
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: His power came from righty's something to watch though. A

738
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: dramatically better home hitter. He hit three twenty five at

739
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: home while hitting only two fifty six on the road,

740
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: but he doubled his home run output on the road.

741
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 1: Chase Field's a pretty friendly ballpark to hit it. I

742
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: think there's floor enough that the rank rise makes sense.

743
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: It's justified you can jump in. The problem is is

744
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: it does feel like there's a gap when you could

745
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 1: have taken Trey Turner as the fifth short stop and

746
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: you're taking per Domo as the ninth. And by the way,

747
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: a guy like Corey Seeger is sitting behind or Jeremy

748
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: Paania or Bobashett, that's what makes Perdomo weird. I will

749
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 1: say I think Perdomo is great for builds. If you

750
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 1: know what I'm saying. There are players regardless of whatever

751
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: you're doing with your team, they don't matter. Perdomo specifically

752
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: for a team that might have taken some shots on,

753
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: some batting average early, maybe a little devoid of some

754
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 1: stolen bases and runs. Perdomo is a player that I

755
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 1: think fills those categories well. Make up the batting average

756
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: a little bit, make up some speed if you've got

757
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: the Nick Kirtz or the Kamanaro's early on, and he

758
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: can help you with runs. I think he might be

759
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: a little bit more build specific than some of the

760
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,399
Speaker 1: other players because it's hard to deny that there isn't

761
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 1: incredible value on Jeremy Pania, Bobachhet, Corey Seger behind him.

762
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: But the whole point is to tell you his rank

763
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 1: has risen into a top nine shortstop in the Fantasy Baseball.

764
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 3: One quick you mentioned Marte.

765
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: Do you think he comes back, because I know there's

766
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 2: been all the talk about and maybe he gets traded

767
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 2: or something.

768
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 3: Do you expect him to be back in twenty twenty six?

769
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I mean this isn't like a show for

770
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 1: trades or anything like that, but I do expect to

771
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 1: tell Marte to be back. I think it would take

772
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 1: heaven and Earth for them to move because they want

773
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 1: to still be competitive. And that's why I think the

774
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: top of the lineup is fascinating for the Diamondbacks with

775
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 1: the guy like Perdomo, because if you're running Carol Marte

776
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: and Prodomo out there, it creates an incredible floor for

777
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: all of these players. All right, enough about those Diamondbacks.

778
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: We've got third base, outfield, and pitching coming up. But

779
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 1: let's talk about the Draft Wizard. Because championships are one

780
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 1: at the draft, and that's where Fantasy Pros MLB Draft

781
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 1: Wizard gives you the edge. Doesn't mean it's one in

782
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: the first round, it's run and one throughout the entire draft,

783
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: and Fantasy Pros Draft Wizard is going to follow and

784
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 1: help you through the entire draft process. You can sink

785
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 1: your league in seconds, run realistic mock drafts using your

786
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: exact league settings. Our tools show you who you should

787
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 1: take next the odds of the favorite players that are

788
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 1: still on the board, and if you're in a pinch,

789
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: you can even ask coach for real time advice tailored

790
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: to your draft. Plus, you can view player news projections,

791
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: build your own tiered cheat sheets. There's so much you

792
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: can do. Draft like a pro with Fantasy Pros MLB

793
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 1: Draft Wizard at fantasypros dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard.

794
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: That's Fantasypros dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard. All right,

795
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: let's go and take a look at third base. We've

796
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: kind of been alluding to this guy. This is a

797
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 1: very similar conversation to Nick Kurtz that we had. We

798
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 1: got to talk about the new rank change of Junior Camenero.

799
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: If there wasn't a guy named Jose Ramirez, we would

800
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: have a brand new third baseman, just like with Nick

801
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: Kurtz on this list. But you know, Jose Ramirez is

802
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 1: a unicorn, but Junior Camenero might be a power unicorn.

803
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: As a twenty to twenty one year old, hit forty

804
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 1: five homers with a two sixty four batting average, scored

805
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: ninety three runs, did steal seven bases. Not a big

806
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 1: OBP guy popped out one hundred and ten runs, so

807
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:58,240
Speaker 1: that is roughly a high end three category player. Nothing

808
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: else is really necessarily chipped in but his cost. He's

809
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: coming in as the second overall third baseman, a top

810
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 1: fifteen overall pick, and frankly, he is going in many

811
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 1: first rounds. Fourteen is a first round fifteen team rot

812
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 1: o pick. Caman Aro, Guys, I've seen go inside the

813
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 1: top ten. If you are chasing elite power, that is

814
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: what Cameron Aro provides. But the question is do you

815
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: buy it? Top end fastest bat in the land. He barrels.

816
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: He hits the ball hard, but kind of similar to

817
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz, though he doesn't have the same He really

818
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 1: doesn't have the same strikeout issues. He had a nineteen

819
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 1: percent k percentage, which is like wildly impressive. He's got

820
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,479
Speaker 1: like some whiff issues he chases, but he just did

821
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous stuff this past year. Are you buying this

822
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: new rank rise? You will have to pay an elite

823
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: elite cost for a player like Junior Camenaro, which maybe

824
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 1: is a reason we can take Prodomo later. Do you

825
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 1: buy this rank rise of Junior Cameranero or do you

826
00:37:58,200 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: hate it as much as Nick Kurtz.

827
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 2: I understand it, but I don't like it. You know,

828
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 2: there will be people probably who come away with a

829
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 2: turnpick and take Camon Arrow and encourage together, and that

830
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: will be very fun, right, That would be a very

831
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 2: fun bill to have.

832
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 3: I don't know how successful it would be though.

833
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 2: Junior Cameron Naro, I think he's going to be a really,

834
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 2: really good hitter. But what to expect going back to

835
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 2: the trop is kind of my main concern because Tampa

836
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: will be playing at Tropic Canna Field next year. Based

837
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 2: on the reports I've seen, I don't know if anything

838
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 2: is one hundred percent confirmed, but they were playing at

839
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa last year or in somewhere

840
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 2: in Florida, the minor league facility for the Yankees is

841
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:33,760
Speaker 2: where they were playing.

842
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 3: At home, Junior.

843
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 2: Cameron Naro had a one sixty WRC plus and a

844
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 2: nine to fifty four OHPS. He was a god at home.

845
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 2: On the road, he had a seven forty three OPS

846
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 2: with a two sixty six on base percentage and a

847
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,919
Speaker 2: one hundred WRC plus. He was exactly average away from home.

848
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 1: But and let's let's put one thing into perspective real quick.

849
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 1: I want to add to that. You want to dumb

850
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 1: it down. He hit three thirteen at home and two

851
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: eighteen on the road, one hundred point difference in his

852
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 1: actual batting average. Though the funny unique thing homers were

853
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: still split. He was hitting homers regardless, but that is

854
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: a one hundred point differential between home and road on

855
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: his batting average.

856
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:13,359
Speaker 3: Yeah.

857
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 2: The thing that was damning to me was when Jason

858
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 2: Kleette told me he wasn't that interested and is like

859
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 2: the biggest Raised guy who watches him every single day,

860
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:21,359
Speaker 2: can't get behind it.

861
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 3: Now.

862
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 2: I go back and forth a little bit because if

863
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 2: you guys remember, the Raised schedule was very backloaded with

864
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 2: away games. They wanted to play a lot of the

865
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 2: home games early in the season so that they weren't

866
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: playing in one hundred and ten degree heat all summer,

867
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 2: so a lot of those games later in the season

868
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 2: were away games. Junior Camanaro in the month of September

869
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 2: and October combined had a one to sixty eight WRC

870
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 2: plus in August it was one fifty four. The batting

871
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,399
Speaker 2: average in September and October three nineteen with a lot

872
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 2: of away games, So there is a part of me

873
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 2: that thinks that over the course of the season he

874
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 2: did progress as a hitter, and he's not just a

875
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 2: home tiny ballpark merchant. Like you mentioned, he's twenty two

876
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 2: years old. I think he can build on this, and

877
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 2: I think he can be a really, really good player.

878
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,720
Speaker 2: But you mentioned three categories. That's probably what you're getting

879
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 2: out of him as a first round pick, even at

880
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 2: a week position at third base, I just can't see

881
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 2: myself doing it all.

882
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: Right, So if you had and by the way, positionally

883
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: it's nothing like second base, you could argue, like, what

884
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 1: do you like more first or third? From the depth perspective, first,

885
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 1: I'd probably go first as well. So if you had

886
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,959
Speaker 1: to invest in one and you had to buy one

887
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 1: of these guys in their rank rise, which is almost

888
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: next to each other, Kurtzer Junior, Camenaro, if I.

889
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: Had to, I'd probably take camon Aro just because I

890
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 2: like first base better. There are targets later down the board,

891
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 2: and I like some deeper third base guys as well.

892
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 2: But if I see like Jonathan Randa close to pick

893
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,959
Speaker 2: two hundred, Christian Walker and Wilson Contrero's around pick two hundred,

894
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,280
Speaker 2: Alec Burlison, who I talked about on our previous shows,

895
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 2: a big target of mine. Two twelve, adp Sal Stewart, Manzardo,

896
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 2: Lenny and Sosa Jake Berger. These are all post two

897
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:55,879
Speaker 2: fifty picks. It's a lot to like at first base.

898
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: Third base not so much.

899
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 1: The only thing you definitely must not leaving the batting

900
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: average then, because like Nick Kurtz would technically be a

901
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 1: four category player if we're comparing, because he did hit

902
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 1: two ninety, So you got to really believe the batting

903
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 1: average is in a comeback down while Camonaro's not, because

904
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 1: that would be you know, a full category advantage for

905
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: Nick Kirk. Even though I mean, Junior might hit fifty

906
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 1: this coming year.

907
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 2: By I think they're both like two fifty two to

908
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 2: sixty hitters, probably give or take maybe ten points in

909
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 2: the direction.

910
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 1: Okay, the other third baseman with a big rank rise.

911
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 1: What's very funny about this one is this one that

912
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 1: has just been kind of looming because he's had this underlining,

913
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: you know, just like kind of savant push because you know,

914
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 1: the barrel, the hard hit numbers were really kind of

915
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:39,399
Speaker 1: up there, and it was just like, man, he's still

916
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,959
Speaker 1: thirty seven bases the prior year. Will the power ticked

917
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: in this year with the batting average, it's mikel Garcia

918
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 1: with the Royals, who comes in at a right around

919
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 1: top one hundred valuation. I currently see it's actually ninety four,

920
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: so it's inside the top one hundred. He is the

921
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 1: sixth third baseman. He is going higher than Johannio Suarez,

922
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 1: higher than Alex Bregman. I don't know. The Bregman stuff

923
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 1: maybe is a little bit more about where he's where.

924
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 1: People don't know where he's going to play. But the

925
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 1: Garcia stuff is built around the speed. So this is

926
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 1: a spot where you know. The lead batting average of

927
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 1: two eighty six was supported by an expected batting average

928
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: of two to eighty. Cut his strikeouts down, He's done

929
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: it three straight years. Increased his walk rate for four

930
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 1: straight years. It's hard to hit rates around forty five percent.

931
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 1: Almost doubled his barrel. He put the ball in the

932
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: he did everything right. He did all the stuff that's right,

933
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 1: and that got him to a sixteen homer twenty three

934
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,400
Speaker 1: stolen based season. Solid runs. Kind of hitting at the

935
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 1: top of the lineup and he gets you kind of

936
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 1: like a positional advantage because he does stuff at the

937
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: position that you might not get elsewhere. Junian Camernows going

938
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: forty five homers, but you could get anywhere from twenty

939
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 1: to thirty stolen bases to go along with fifteen to

940
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 1: twenty homers and batting average from MIKEL. Garcia, So he

941
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 1: can I don't know if he's Perdomo in that, Like

942
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 1: it's a cool, weird build, but what you're seeing in

943
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 1: early drafts is the prioritization again of stole and bases,

944
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: and this is an out of position statistic you can

945
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: get with him. But he's got a lot of good

946
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 1: underlying profile stuff that has created this cool floor, and

947
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: people are choosing this floor with stolen bases over like

948
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 1: I said, Suarez and the power and the defunct batting

949
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 1: average Bregman would just kind of like like a lackluster everything.

950
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 1: And they're doing it at a pretty high cost. So

951
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:24,280
Speaker 1: do you buy a top one hundred rank rise for MIKEL. Garcia?

952
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 3: Yes and no.

953
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 2: Like the thing about Bregman and the guys who are

954
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 2: unsigned is that the second they signed, they're going up

955
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 2: two rounds. So just the way it works, Bregman was

956
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 2: really good when he was on the field last year,

957
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 2: but the uncertainty Boba, Shad, Kyle Tucker.

958
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 3: As soon as he's guys signed, the prices are going up.

959
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 2: Mikel Garcia, I don't really believe he can get the

960
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 2: sixteen home runs again. The batted ball profile is pretty mediocre.

961
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 2: Nine degree launch angle, five percent barrel forty five hard

962
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: hit is pretty solid. But when he's hitting forty four

963
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 2: percent of those on the ground, I'll probably take the

964
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 2: under on sixteen homers. Everything else I think is pretty repeatable.

965
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 2: He can get into the eighty ninety run range. They

966
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: kind of moved him around the order a little bit

967
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 2: last year. I would expect that he would just be

968
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 2: the leadoff hitter. He probably should be proved that he

969
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,760
Speaker 2: can be a good on base contributor and this stolen

970
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,399
Speaker 2: bases are pretty secure. Twenty three, thirty seven, twenty three

971
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 2: within that range you can expect.

972
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 3: Again.

973
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:13,919
Speaker 2: I just think the power, you should probably be taking

974
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 2: the under on it. But as a hitter, like the

975
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: play discipline metrics are great. He doesn't chase tons of contact,

976
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 2: doesn't swing and miss a lot like he's a He's

977
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 2: a really good pure hitter for a team. That I

978
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 2: think probably will fare a little bit better in twenty

979
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 2: twenty six.

980
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: Interesting number they have the expected home run totals on

981
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: Baseball Savant. He was actually projected for one more homer,

982
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: not like an under, so the expected homer run total

983
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 1: liked him for a little bit more. He increased. They

984
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 1: have this no doubter percentage. You know where you're you're

985
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 1: hitting homers at a level that is going in most

986
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: all ballparks. It's something to definitely watch for. He has

987
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 1: also increased his pull air percentages four straight years. Four

988
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: years ago he had a five point nine percent where

989
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 1: he pulled the ball in the air. Sixteen percent this year,

990
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 1: so he's tripled it over the four year markers. So

991
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 1: you when you hit the ball hard, you get the

992
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: ball in the air and you pull it, good things happen.

993
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 1: The problem is he's got some other stuff where he's

994
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 1: like he's not barreling the ball enough, which you want

995
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 1: to see a little bit more. But people are chasing

996
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 1: stolen bases and that's what ends up happening. All right,

997
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 1: let's go to the outfield and we're going to give

998
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:19,879
Speaker 1: you a board of three outfielders that are fascinating rank

999
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 1: risers this year, and we'll do some kind of quick

1000
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 1: hits on him. The three outfielders that have moved up

1001
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 1: that we've highlighted. Number one, Roman Anthony. He is a

1002
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: starting top twelve if you're playing on like a head

1003
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 1: to head. He is ranked out as a top twelve

1004
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 1: outfielder this year. ADP is right outside the top fifty

1005
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 1: Byron Buxton is going to be a one to two

1006
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: outfielder for most people this year based off of what

1007
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: he did last year. There's a heavy buy in. It's

1008
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 1: top seventy five in current costs and speaking of stolen bases.

1009
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 1: I really debated this in the offseason. I kind of

1010
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 1: thought he could push as high as like the top

1011
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: seventy five. Kind of cool dark towards the end, but

1012
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 1: Chandler Simpson essentially is a starting outfielder in even a

1013
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 1: three outfielder league. It's like outfielder thirty seven. He's just

1014
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 1: inside the top one fifty. It's an ADP of one

1015
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 1: fifty four. Here, which of these outfielders rank rise is

1016
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:17,360
Speaker 1: the most egregious to you?

1017
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,760
Speaker 2: I think it's got to be Buston. I just don't

1018
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 2: know what we're doing. Like he has we know who

1019
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 2: Byron Buckson is on pure talent alone. If he was

1020
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 2: healthy his whole career, he'd probably be going to Cooperstown.

1021
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 1: That Isnty five homers, twenty four stolen bases in under

1022
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: five hundred bats last year. That is what we do

1023
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:39,240
Speaker 1: know coming into his thirty one thirty two year season.

1024
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 2: But he's healthy, he's great, no question about it, no

1025
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,760
Speaker 2: question about it. If he if you turn the injury

1026
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 2: sliders off from day one, I think Byron Buckson is

1027
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 2: a Hall of Famer. But if you look at the

1028
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 2: games played every year going back to twenty seventeen, where

1029
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 2: he had one hundred and forty games, twenty eight, eighty seven,

1030
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 2: thirty nine, sixty one, ninety two eighty five, one oh

1031
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,399
Speaker 2: two one twenty six being the high water mark does

1032
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 2: not give me really the warm and fuzzy feeling. He's

1033
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 2: gonna be thirty two years old next month, a week

1034
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 2: before Christmas, will turn thirty two. I just can't see

1035
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 2: myself investing in him with that price. That's a crazy price.

1036
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 2: Top seventy five, top twenty outfielder. You might get forty

1037
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 2: five games out of him. Again, maybe he plays the

1038
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 2: whole season, but the odds are against it, you know,

1039
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 2: I just can't see it with outfield being especially if

1040
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:24,240
Speaker 2: you are playing in a three outfielder, more more shallow,

1041
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 2: casual type of league. I cannot see myself taking a

1042
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 2: risk here with a five outfielder league. Maybe you feel like, okay,

1043
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 2: I need more outfielders. I have to take the risk.

1044
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 2: Twenty picks ahead of Soderstrom, twenty picks ahead of say

1045
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 2: a Suzuki, thirty picks ahead of George Springer, ta Oscar Hernandez,

1046
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 2: Lawrence Butler.

1047
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 3: I could go on and on and on. I want

1048
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 3: nothing to do with Buckson.

1049
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 1: I will tell you I want all to do with

1050
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:49,359
Speaker 1: Roman Anthony. Though Roman Anthony I love. I Actually the

1051
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: when you look at it positionally, you're like, man, he's

1052
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 1: like the twelfth outfielder going outside the top fifty kind

1053
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: of gives me hope in a very like Wyatt Langford

1054
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: James Wood type draft of last year. Except the thing

1055
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: I talked about all at the back end of the

1056
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: year is Roman Anthony had I think so many of

1057
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 1: the profiling of Nick Kurtz, just without the big major outcomes,

1058
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 1: and I think they're going to happen into the very

1059
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,399
Speaker 1: near future. He had a sixty percent hard hit rate

1060
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: last year, absolutely elite, fifteen percent barrel elite, ninety four

1061
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:25,919
Speaker 1: point five average exit velocity, love love love sliders across

1062
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 1: the board. He did, though he did WHI he did

1063
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 1: not chase a whole bunch great bat speed, hits the

1064
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 1: ball incredibly hard expected. wOBA was in like the top

1065
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen if he qualified. He had eight homers,

1066
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: four stolen bases in two hundred and fifty seven at

1067
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,399
Speaker 1: bats with a two ninety two batting average. So if

1068
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 1: you play extrapolation game, you're like, okay, Welsh, well that's

1069
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 1: like a fifteen to ten guy or maybe twenty ten guy.

1070
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 1: I think the sky's the limit for this guy, and

1071
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:51,800
Speaker 1: I think he's going to take a big step up. Plus,

1072
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 1: what I do love is that the back end of

1073
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: the year they were leading. Having this guy lead off,

1074
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 1: he is going to hit in the top part of

1075
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: the order and two three like, he's going to hit

1076
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 1: in the top three of this order. There's gonna be

1077
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,359
Speaker 1: running RBI opportunities. I love the hitting profile. I do

1078
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 1: want to see the strikeouts drop a little bit, But

1079
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 1: he walks, he's gonna score runs. I hope there's some

1080
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:15,120
Speaker 1: support behind him, go and get him Pete Alonzo. But

1081
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: I think I don't know what Seemer projection looks like

1082
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 1: right now. I think it's too low. I think Roman

1083
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: Anthony is a guy that we can push twenty five

1084
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: to thirty homers I can get. I'm not eve really

1085
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,320
Speaker 1: bank on the stolen bases ten fifteen if I was

1086
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 1: being super optimistic. But I think he's a relatively high

1087
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 1: four category player. So I love Roman Anthony. This is

1088
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,919
Speaker 1: one I'm definitely bought in on. This is a rank

1089
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: rise that I actually think could go even higher.

1090
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm surprised it's not higher because when you look

1091
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,799
Speaker 2: at the last couple of years. You mentioned Wood and

1092
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 2: Surio and Langford. By the end of draft season last

1093
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 2: year and the main event, which is like the signature

1094
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 2: contest on the NFBC, it's like eighteen hundred dollars USD

1095
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 2: buy in, it's big time. While Langford was a top

1096
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 2: of the second round pick, he was like sixteen seventeen overall.

1097
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 2: This is the same type of profile the top prospect.

1098
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 2: You get a little bit a cup of coffee, he

1099
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 2: looks good. I'm surprised at the prices as low and

1100
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 2: I think Roman Anthony hits a couple of hard homers

1101
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 2: in spring. He's a third round pick probably. But that

1102
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 2: hard hit rate you mentioned sixty point three percent among

1103
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 2: all players with three hundred played appearances in the big

1104
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 2: leagues last year, number one, the best hard hit rate

1105
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,959
Speaker 2: of anybody who had three hundred played appearances last year.

1106
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 2: And one last thing I'll mention is the strikeouts were

1107
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 2: a little bit concerning. I don't know how to really

1108
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 2: reconcile that because he doesn't swing and miss a lot.

1109
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,359
Speaker 2: He's a ten percent swinging strike rate, but he goes

1110
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 2: deep int accounts big walk rate and it's going to

1111
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: lead itself to more strikeouts naturally. But that being said,

1112
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 2: I think twenty seven percent does come down to twenty

1113
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 2: three to twenty four next year.

1114
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,399
Speaker 1: And just ending the Chandler Simpsons stuff, the rank rise

1115
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 1: is because of elite stolen bases. He's going to be

1116
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 1: near the tippy top of projected if not at the

1117
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 1: tip top forty four stolen bases. Last year he hit

1118
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 1: two ninety five. The runs were low in around four

1119
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 1: hundred bats. If you give him six hundred plate appearances,

1120
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 1: then a little bit more aggressive. I don't think it's

1121
00:50:57,680 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 1: out of pocket to say that he's a high end

1122
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:03,320
Speaker 1: three category player. He's expected batting average supports his batting average.

1123
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 1: He could steal fifty with his eyes closed. I think

1124
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 1: he can score ninety runs if the offense is humming.

1125
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 1: I actually think the rank rise isn't to a level

1126
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 1: when you see some of these stolen base guys, you know,

1127
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 1: going inside the top thirty fifty because they steal bases,

1128
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:21,720
Speaker 1: and then you just, yes, he's an empty homer, empty

1129
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 1: RBI guy. But if you can go post one thirty

1130
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 1: and get fifty to sixty stolen bases with high batting

1131
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 1: average and runs, you can make up for that, especially

1132
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 1: if you took Camanaro and Nick Kurtz. So the Chandler

1133
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 1: Simpson one makes a lot of sense. It's going to

1134
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 1: be more build specific in how you you know, kind

1135
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,600
Speaker 1: of end up viewing stolen bases for sure. So whether

1136
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 1: you want a draft him or not.

1137
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,279
Speaker 2: That early draft that happened a few months ago, the

1138
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 2: one that Bubba and Bloomfield and those guys were in.

1139
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 2: Ryan Roof, who's a road a wire guy, really good guy.

1140
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 2: His build was Jacob Wilson, Chandler Simpson and then cal Rawley,

1141
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 2: and I don't know if it was Judge or one

1142
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 2: of those other like big, big power guys. So going

1143
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:00,360
Speaker 2: on both ends of the spectrum, the big power, the

1144
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:03,439
Speaker 2: big batting average and speed, Chandler Simpson is really maybe

1145
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 2: more than any player in the whole playerpool, dependent on

1146
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:07,720
Speaker 2: how you've constructed your team at that point of the draft.

1147
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 2: He's not a smash pick at one forty regardless. You

1148
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 2: need to have the power early on. If you don't,

1149
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: then you're probably screwed because he might never hit a

1150
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 2: home run in his whole career unless he hits it

1151
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 2: inside the parker.

1152
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 1: I hit a couple of those. All right, let's go

1153
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 1: to pitchers. We're gonna the first one we're gonna do

1154
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 1: is a singular player, and we're going to talk just

1155
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 1: about Brian Wu because we've got a collection for the

1156
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,839
Speaker 1: next I thought Brian Wu was one of the more

1157
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:31,280
Speaker 1: fascinating rank right, there's plenty of rank risers. Of course,

1158
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 1: the top tier still looks the same. In Scooble, it's Skeins,

1159
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 1: it's crochet. Hunter Brown is obviously taking a jump up.

1160
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: You could argue Chris Sanchez, I mean Chris Sanchez is

1161
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 1: going off as a top ten SPN here, but I

1162
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 1: wanted to put a focus on Brian Wu who comes

1163
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:49,400
Speaker 1: off as the twelfth starting pitcher. It's like the sixteenth

1164
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 1: pitcher on NFBC, but the twelfth starting pitcher, so in

1165
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 1: a you know, like a head to head that is

1166
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 1: an SP one of sp ones and he's coming off

1167
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 1: a phenomenal year. Got hurt in the playoffs, which kind

1168
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 1: of took back, but two nine four ERA one hundred

1169
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: and eighty six innings, just just short of two hundred strikeouts,

1170
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,399
Speaker 1: a point nine to three whip, twenty seven point one

1171
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 1: K percentage to four point nine walk percentage one of

1172
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:15,839
Speaker 1: the lowest walk percentages, a big increase in K percentages

1173
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 1: which you really really love to see, took some major strides.

1174
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 1: Also added about a full mile per hour on his fastball,

1175
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 1: which is key, and his slider ticked up over two

1176
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 1: miles per hour. That led to some elite results, and

1177
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:31,799
Speaker 1: he floats in this elite territory. So let me ask

1178
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 1: you this, Joe Chris Sanchez as SP eight or Brian

1179
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:41,399
Speaker 1: Wu as SP twelve, and the round difference is let's

1180
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 1: call it one round, third round for Sanchez, fourth round,

1181
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 1: for Wu.

1182
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 3: I have to go with Chris Sanchez there.

1183
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:50,360
Speaker 2: As much as I as much as I really like

1184
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 2: Brian Wu, I'm still not one hundred percent sure if

1185
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 2: I can trust his health going forward. I know he

1186
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: had the bit of an elbow problem in twenty twenty four,

1187
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 2: which I don't think it's a huge conscer, especially like

1188
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 2: you mentioned, you pitched the whole year, didn't get hurt

1189
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 2: until the end, and I don't know if it was

1190
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 2: that serious. He came back and pitched in the playoffs

1191
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 2: a few weeks later. But Christopher Sanchez like he had

1192
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 2: a legit cy Young case this year, and Brian Wu

1193
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 2: probably had a pretty legit case. But Christopher Sanchez, I

1194
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 2: think this is a top five or six pitcher, Like

1195
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 2: Christopher Sanchez is going to be probably my number five

1196
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 2: ranked pitcher heading into the year, and I think you

1197
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:26,720
Speaker 2: could have made a case, honestly looking at the underlying

1198
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:29,440
Speaker 2: numbers that he maybe even deserve the cy Young.

1199
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 3: This year, which maybe people will fight back a little bit.

1200
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,399
Speaker 2: But I think that he is as good as it gets,

1201
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 2: and I think that Wu was very good but doesn't

1202
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 2: feel quite as safe.

1203
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 1: He's right in that range. Elite home ballpark had a

1204
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: two four to four era there, I would say if

1205
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:46,320
Speaker 1: I'm getting a round discount with the changes that have happened,

1206
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 1: especially if I'm getting a two round discount with the

1207
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,239
Speaker 1: changes that have happened with Brian Wu. He's becoming like

1208
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 1: an elite option elite the strikeouts compared to how he

1209
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 1: walks like a K minus walk percentage thing with elite

1210
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 1: whip elite era when opportunities, with an elite bullpen behind him,

1211
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 1: an offensive support in a ballpark that you love, I

1212
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 1: think everything is trending up. He's a top twelve sp

1213
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 1: with a little shine of Chris Sanchez in that conversation.

1214
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 1: This last part is a is a quadrant of pitchers.

1215
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 1: We talked about one that I love in the last episode.

1216
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:19,920
Speaker 1: This is like a quadrant of guys that all have

1217
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:22,879
Speaker 1: some really fascinating ADPs that I think you just need

1218
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: to be up on. It kicks off with Chase Burns,

1219
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 1: who comes in at one twenty four ADP Jacob Mizerowski

1220
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:35,320
Speaker 1: with a one twenty four point sixty four two spots lower,

1221
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 1: You've got Cam Schlitzler at one twenty eight on that list,

1222
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 1: and then if you move down Trey A Savage at

1223
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 1: one point fifty and Bubba Chandler at one sixty one.

1224
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 1: The point of this these are all roughly inside the

1225
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 1: top forty five sps, which are all going to be

1226
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:56,239
Speaker 1: significantly rosterble, especially as like your starter starters you're going

1227
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 1: to be counting on, the ranks have changed. The highest though,

1228
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 1: being Chase Burns and Jacob Misowski. Get to know these names,

1229
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,360
Speaker 1: get to know the high rank. These are going to

1230
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 1: be your sp twos or threes likely on a lot

1231
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 1: of your teams. Which one of these guys do you

1232
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 1: want to hit?

1233
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 2: So I'll fight the urge to talk about Treya Savage

1234
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 2: and I'll go with Jacob Mazarowski here. I think that

1235
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 2: you know, he was a polarizing player last year. People

1236
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 2: were mad that he was named an All Star and

1237
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 2: he kind of faltered down the stretch a little bit,

1238
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 2: and it was a bit of an odd debut for

1239
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:32,239
Speaker 2: him pitching and relief in the playoffs, et cetera. But

1240
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 2: the underlying skills here are so so good. The thing

1241
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:38,359
Speaker 2: that is the main concern is the walk rate. Every

1242
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 2: level he's pitched in, even low A, he's had a

1243
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:43,759
Speaker 2: high walk rate above ten percent. It was eleven point

1244
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 2: four percent last year and his debut, which is not terrible.

1245
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:48,799
Speaker 2: You can live with that, especially with the strikeouts. That's

1246
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 2: kind of the main concern everything else. I think that

1247
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:52,479
Speaker 2: the Brewers are going to put him in the starting

1248
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 2: rotation next year. The fact that he throws his curveball

1249
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 2: and it's a really good curveball kind of is the

1250
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:00,600
Speaker 2: distinguishing factor between him and Chase and who are going

1251
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 2: right at the exact same price.

1252
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:03,040
Speaker 3: You're picking between the two of them.

1253
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 2: Burns is more of the two pitch guy, fastball slider,

1254
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 2: whereas Miserowski can mix in the curveball. Think it makes

1255
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 2: him a little bit more projectable for next year. Now

1256
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 2: there's an injury risk all over the place with these

1257
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 2: guys on ninety six mile an hour sliders, et cetera.

1258
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 2: But I think Miserowski has a shot to be one

1259
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 2: of the best pitchers in baseball starting next year as

1260
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 2: long as he stays healthy.

1261
00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:28,280
Speaker 1: And those guys, it's like one twenty five essentially for

1262
00:57:28,360 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 1: Burns and Miserowski. Schlitler is kind of right in that

1263
00:57:31,600 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 1: discussion as Nolan McLain. That's kind of a grouping. And

1264
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 1: then there's this a little bit deeper grouping of Treya

1265
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 1: Savage you mentioned, and the guy that I'll just talk

1266
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 1: about is Bubba Chandler. Bubba Chandler is the cheapest of

1267
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,040
Speaker 1: all of these players. He was really babied last year,

1268
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 1: only thirty one innings in the majors. But what we

1269
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 1: saw was this dramatic change because he had walk issues

1270
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: in the miners. He had a three percent walk rate

1271
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: up here in the majors. As they got him into

1272
00:57:55,720 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 1: some relief roles and then started transitioning him into some starts.

1273
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:06,080
Speaker 1: Those starts, his last three he went. He went six innings,

1274
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 1: five innings, five and two thirds, gave up only two

1275
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: earned runs during that time, and had nineteen strikeouts over

1276
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 1: those last three starts with by the way, zero walks.

1277
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 1: Bubba Chandler has got elite stuff. Now will the walks

1278
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 1: come back and haunt him? Will it be a problem.

1279
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 1: It's a definite possibility. But he pumps the ninety nine

1280
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 1: mill hour fastball. His change up ended up having a

1281
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent with rate. His slider was in the

1282
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 1: twenty two percentiles. The Pirates look like they actually want

1283
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:36,520
Speaker 1: to compete a little bit. Get some pieces out there,

1284
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 1: and I think what they're telling us is we are

1285
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:40,920
Speaker 1: going to get a full season of Bubba Chandler, And

1286
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 1: I think at this cost he has as much upside

1287
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 1: as every single one of these young pitchers. Team context

1288
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 1: is a little bit of a question, but the cost

1289
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:53,640
Speaker 1: is around forty spots lower than the Schlitlers and the

1290
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 1: Jacob Mizerowskis of the world. There is inherent risk, but

1291
00:58:57,160 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 1: I think the rank rise is fascinating of all these

1292
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 1: young guys, and I think, who's everybody to try to

1293
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 1: get one of these because miss Rawski Burns, I think

1294
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:07,600
Speaker 1: they've got and Chandler having incredible, incredible strikeout upside, Ya

1295
00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 1: Savage and Schlitler might have a little bit more floor,

1296
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 1: both with like playoff runs and a little bit more poise.

1297
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 1: So all of those guys really jump out as fascinating

1298
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 1: rank risers, and that leads us to the very end.

1299
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 1: Relief pitchers. Two relief pitchers jump out to you in

1300
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: the new ranks here and they are five and six

1301
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:33,240
Speaker 1: on urps. Cad Smith got to give the caveat NFBC

1302
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 1: jumps up relief pitchers. In this roto format, everyone needs closers.

1303
00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 1: So sometimes in a standard like homely, you can almost

1304
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 1: cut these in half by value. But I think the

1305
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 1: so it's Cad Smith is fifty eight, the other one

1306
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:50,480
Speaker 1: a Roldest Chapman who was you know, on the wire

1307
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 1: for half the year for people. He comes in at

1308
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,440
Speaker 1: sixty six. Don't focus on that. Focus on Cad Smith

1309
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: being the fifth closer and the oldest Chapman being the

1310
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 1: sixth closer off the list avi sleep you know the

1311
01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 1: stuff going on with class that has ended that what

1312
01:00:03,880 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 1: do you would the Kate Smith stuff and kind of

1313
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:07,600
Speaker 1: vaulted him into that spot of world as Chapman has

1314
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 1: just come off as this elite option even at his age.

1315
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:13,160
Speaker 1: What do you think about these two massive rank risers

1316
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 1: in the relief market. That's going to see a lot

1317
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:18,600
Speaker 1: of the normal guys. You're going to see Andres Munnos,

1318
01:00:18,600 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna see Edwin Diaz, You're gonna Josh Hater, You're

1319
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 1: gonna see the guys that you normally know, and then

1320
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 1: these guys are thrust into it.

1321
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:27,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Kate Smith is going to be one

1322
01:00:27,160 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 2: of my favorite targets.

1323
01:00:28,720 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 3: Class A is likely never pitching again. Maybe I didn't

1324
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:32,920
Speaker 3: likely anymore. He's he's cooked, He's.

1325
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 1: Oh, he's Yeah, he's not. That's not even a question.

1326
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 3: Kate Smith.

1327
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:39,360
Speaker 2: His numbers have been unbelievable at every level he's ever

1328
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 2: pitched at. This past season two nine three era, the

1329
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 2: FIP was one nine five twenty eight percent strikeout minus

1330
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 2: walk great. Every number that we've mentioned throughout the show

1331
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 2: in a positive manner doesn't allow a lot of barrels.

1332
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 2: He gets swings and misses. The contact against him isn't good,

1333
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 2: like he checks every box sixteen percent swinging strike great.

1334
01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 2: Stuff is great. Everything is great. The only thing that's

1335
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 2: not great in Cleveland is how many wins are they

1336
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 2: going to have in a given year.

1337
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:04,439
Speaker 3: Nobody knows.

1338
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 2: It could be ninety four, it could be sixty eight.

1339
01:01:06,600 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 2: Nobody knows in a given year how many games are

1340
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 2: gonna win. Chapman is more of a stay away just

1341
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 2: because he's gonna be thirty eight years old before he

1342
01:01:13,360 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 2: throws another major league pitch, and I just don't really

1343
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 2: want to invest in a guy at that age who

1344
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 2: you know, he doesn't strike out as many guys.

1345
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 3: As he used to.

1346
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 2: It's still a lot of strikeouts, don't get me wrong,

1347
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:24,760
Speaker 2: But he's not like peak a role as Chapman anymore.

1348
01:01:24,760 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 2: Where he's up into the mid forty strikeout range and

1349
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 2: at thirty eight years old, I just don't really.

1350
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:30,919
Speaker 3: Want to get involved in that business again.

1351
01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 2: I had drafted him a couple of times last year

1352
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 2: and it worked out one of the best seasons by

1353
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:37,840
Speaker 2: reliever in the century, probably, but expecting a repeat again,

1354
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 2: going back to the Kurtz and Camenaro point, expecting a

1355
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:42,440
Speaker 2: big repeat on a career year, and especially for a

1356
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 2: thirty eight year old, is probably not wise.

1357
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:44,720
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1358
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 1: I think the thing that jumps out too is like

1359
01:01:46,120 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 1: hater is actually going behind. In ADP's shout out to

1360
01:01:48,960 --> 01:01:52,040
Speaker 1: David Bednar, that's another rank riser that we want to

1361
01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:54,080
Speaker 1: inform you about and get you to know. I think

1362
01:01:54,080 --> 01:01:56,720
Speaker 1: you know, there's some other guys on lesser teams. Carlos

1363
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:58,920
Speaker 1: Estevez is kind of down that list. What could happen

1364
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 1: with Devin Williams. There's a lot of big questions. Kate

1365
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:03,960
Speaker 1: Smith feels safer. I don't hate the e rold As

1366
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:06,800
Speaker 1: Chapman pick as far as getting saves on that team,

1367
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 1: but there are some massive changes in the closer market,

1368
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 1: and Kate Smith is what Kate Smith and even David

1369
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:15,720
Speaker 1: Bednar and really jump out to you, and I think

1370
01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 1: the shock of seeing world as Chapman where he is

1371
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 1: is a surprise to everybody. What was a surprise to you?

1372
01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 1: What is your favorite player that is jump Rake and

1373
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 1: what's the one that you hate the most? You can

1374
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:28,000
Speaker 1: talk about the ones that we talked about, or you

1375
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:29,840
Speaker 1: guys can check out where either some of the early

1376
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:33,080
Speaker 1: ranks are or ADPs across the board. What do you hate?

1377
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 1: What do you love? Drop it in the comments below.

1378
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:37,960
Speaker 1: As we get you through into the new year of

1379
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six with these rank risers that is going

1380
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 1: to do it. Make sure you guys go over to

1381
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:44,840
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros get locked in for this upcoming season. Make

1382
01:02:44,880 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 1: sure you're subscribed on the podcast, and make sure you're

1383
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 1: subscribed right here on the YouTube. Hit the bell so

1384
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 1: you're notified of any of the new stuff that we

1385
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 1: got going on, because we're about to hit into overdrive.

1386
01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:56,040
Speaker 1: That's Joe Rico. I'm Chris Welsch. I hope you guys

1387
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:57,480
Speaker 1: have a fantastic one and we'll talk to you next

1388
01:02:57,520 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 1: time right here and Fantasy Pros MLB.

1389
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

1390
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:04,440
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1391
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:06,240
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1392
01:03:06,000 --> 01:03:08,920
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1393
01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:12,680
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1394
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:15,640
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1395
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:17,840
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