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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to this edition of Phishology. For those

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Speaker 1: of you who may be new here in Physiology, we'd

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Speaker 1: like to give you the analytical version of our podcast

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Speaker 1: here and talk about the Miami Marlins. And as always,

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Speaker 1: I am joined by mister Eli Sussman and the strongest

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Speaker 1: man on fitz Stripp's, Lewis Adeo Weiss.

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Speaker 2: Guys, how are you feeling for this episode?

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Speaker 3: If you're listening to this on Thursday? It's opening day,

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Speaker 3: So a new season's upon us. Everybody's got a perfect era,

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Speaker 3: nobody's gotten out at the plate yet, like it's it's

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Speaker 3: Hope Springs Eternal. I'm very excited for another season of baseball.

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Speaker 3: I'm covering the Marlins.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 5: All the possibilities are on the table until they're not.

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Speaker 5: So that's existence through the years. Is he just watched

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Speaker 5: little by little as hope escapes you, and at this

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Speaker 5: moment it hasn't yet. I think we started Physiology right

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Speaker 5: at the start of the off season, so this is

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Speaker 5: gonna be something new, and I think this just makes

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Speaker 5: it's gonna be more It's gonna be a more valuable tool.

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Speaker 5: I think to you, guys, as we analyze during this

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Speaker 5: season as it goes on instead of just doing year

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Speaker 5: ends in future shows. This is kind of the premise

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Speaker 5: that we had in mind when we started in the

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Speaker 5: first place, is having it as your companion throughout the

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Speaker 5: regular season as it just gets going right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and with that, I think we can call this episode,

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Speaker 1: don't call it a comeback as we are. We giving you, guys,

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Speaker 1: four possible comeback players for the Marlins and for those

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Speaker 1: of you maybe you want to skip around, listen to

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Speaker 1: us during player, We're gonna do Hoy Silaire, Avy Garcia, Jacob.

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Speaker 2: Stallings, and Tanner Scott. So four players there who.

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Speaker 1: Did not have the best of seasons last year, especially

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Speaker 1: when you look at Avy and Hory Silaire and the

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Speaker 1: amount of money that the Marlins guaranteed them. These four

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Speaker 1: players combined for a zero point zero war between all

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Speaker 1: of them, and let's just go on with Hory Silaire

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Speaker 1: the only positive war player from that list at zero

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Speaker 1: point four last year came in with a lot of

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Speaker 1: hopes to be the Marlins clean up hitter, hit thirty

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Speaker 1: forty home runs, big contract. Coming off the World Series

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Speaker 1: MVP with the Atlanta Braves, Lewis talked to me about

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Speaker 1: Hori Cilaire and why he is a comeback player candidate.

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Speaker 4: I guess we're getting the positives out of the way first.

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Speaker 4: As far as players.

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Speaker 3: Go, you know, Solaire was maybe of the players that

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Speaker 3: we're going to talk about today. While he was on

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Speaker 3: the field, was probably the best performer. And again that

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Speaker 3: doesn't say much for an all offense that went through

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Speaker 3: extended stretches of really struggling to score runs. But you know,

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Speaker 3: you look at the sample of what he did in

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Speaker 3: the totality of the years was twenty eighteen to twenty.

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Speaker 4: One, and he was about twenty percent above league average.

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Speaker 3: It was a one nineteen at tested ops. Plus he

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Speaker 3: had that monster year I believed in twenty nineteen with

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Speaker 3: the Royals where he hit something like forty eight forty

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Speaker 3: nine home runs. And you know, he he's one of

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Speaker 3: those guys that while he's limited in certain ways, there's

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Speaker 3: a lot he does well for you. He is above

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Speaker 3: average hitter as far as taking walks. He hits the

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Speaker 3: ball hard. I believe his average exit velocity there wasn't

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Speaker 3: that much variance. It was about ninety point two ninety

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Speaker 3: point three miles per hour off the bat. Last year

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Speaker 3: when he was on the field. He did miss extended

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Speaker 3: time with injury, did come back near the end. But

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Speaker 3: you know, if you look at the actual output, it's

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Speaker 3: you know, my slash line two oh seven, two ninety five,

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Speaker 3: four hundred and that's a six ninety five ops. That's

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Speaker 3: a ninety five adjusted ops plus. It's below average. But

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Speaker 3: you know, when you look under the hood, as we

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Speaker 3: like to say, when we look at peripherals and we

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Speaker 3: look at expected stats because it's better, it's more encouraging.

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Speaker 3: You know, the batting average isn't much better. It's two

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Speaker 3: twenty six, it's three oh five, it's four twenty one

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Speaker 3: for the slash, but that's a seven twenty six theoretical ops.

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Speaker 3: And you'd like to think, wow, it would still be

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Speaker 3: somewhat disappointing if the Marlins got that kind of production,

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Speaker 3: if all else kind of matched the the battleball data

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Speaker 3: suggests should have happened, and you kind of think that,

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Speaker 3: like they'd be a little more okay with it. Really

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Speaker 3: nice swing and now so layer launches one center field.

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Speaker 2: This one is gone in the Marlins.

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Speaker 1: On the second night, they're all going back to back

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Speaker 1: prob A two outs.

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Speaker 5: You'd love to see this from the Marlins, that power

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Speaker 5: that they have in the middle of the lineup.

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Speaker 2: It's been a while since Sole Beam.

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Speaker 3: He does strike out quite a bit, though it's slightly

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Speaker 3: less than what Avi Garcia did last year, it's still

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Speaker 3: about twenty three to twenty six percent consistently. He will

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Speaker 3: consistently strike out about a quarter at the time. But again,

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Speaker 3: most of baseball does that nowadays, and if you don't,

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Speaker 3: you're kind of an anomaly in this era. Defensively, he's limited.

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Speaker 3: He's not the best guy. But I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: if you want to expect something from him this year,

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Speaker 3: it's you know, the initial thought was right when the

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Speaker 3: season ended, we saw that he accepted his team op,

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Speaker 3: his player option for Believers.

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Speaker 4: For fifteen million for this year, if I'm not mistaken.

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Speaker 3: And that would theoretically make him the highest paid player

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Speaker 3: in the team. That being said, he's probably gonna dh

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Speaker 3: a lot of the time. He'll put Tune there with Cooper.

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Speaker 3: Cooper play first base. Marlins have a gluttny of outfielder,

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Speaker 3: so he'll probably play some left field. Although in spring

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Speaker 3: training for those Marlins fans were watching and we got

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Speaker 3: to see new manager Skip Schumacher and the coaching staff

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Speaker 3: kind of experimented with like a left field right field

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Speaker 3: hybrid with him and Avas sol Garcia, and we've heard

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Speaker 3: from Skip Schumacher it's been substantiated that we'll probably see

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Speaker 3: that during the season. Either way, I don't think that

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Speaker 3: makes the team any better. Like I said, Solaer is

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Speaker 3: a below average defender, but the power is legit. I

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Speaker 3: think he's probably got the most raw power of any

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Speaker 3: player in this lineup, beside say Sue Stanchez.

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Speaker 4: I have more to say about him, but Eli, I

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Speaker 4: don't want to go on too long or longer than

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Speaker 4: Ilay have, so I'll.

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Speaker 3: Let you impart a little bit of wisdom for our

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Speaker 3: listeners and maybe for us tonight as well, about what

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Speaker 3: you think went wrong with Solaer last year and what

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Speaker 3: maybe you think we'd expect to see in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 5: What I want to draw people's attention to is the

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Speaker 5: split of the split, the shift, and how that affected

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Speaker 5: him last year. He more so than any other of

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Speaker 5: their regular players, he was really adversely affected by the

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Speaker 5: infield shift, which as we know, is now going away

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Speaker 5: this year. So for those of the people watching it

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Speaker 5: on YouTube, he was shifted seventy eight percent of the

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Speaker 5: time last year. As a right handed hitter, that is

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Speaker 5: very unusual. It speaks to his very pull heavy tendencies.

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Speaker 5: That's his for better or for worse, that's been who

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Speaker 5: he has been most of his career. He pulls a

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Speaker 5: lot of balls, and that's because when he gets into

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Speaker 5: the air, a lot of those turn into home runs,

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Speaker 5: but those that are put on the ground when you

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Speaker 5: have an over shifted infield. Last year, a well below

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Speaker 5: average hitter when he was hitting when he was fielded,

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Speaker 5: when he was defended with a overshift to the left

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Speaker 5: side of the infield the two seventy five weighted on

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Speaker 5: base average according to Statcast. But you look at the

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Speaker 5: times that he was not shifted, and he was outstanding

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Speaker 5: a four to eleven waited on base average and for

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Speaker 5: contexts league averages in the low three hundreds. He was

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Speaker 5: just an outstanding hitter in the few opportunities that he

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Speaker 5: got to hit against the standard defensive alignment. On top

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Speaker 5: of what you just said, if he is the same

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Speaker 5: player that he was last year, I think you expect

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Speaker 5: a lot more singles and occasionally a few more doubles

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Speaker 5: as a result of the rule change. And he's going

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Speaker 5: to be a big beneficiary of that. That's what stood

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Speaker 5: out to me for one thing. But he is a

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Speaker 5: player that when things are right, he is elevating the

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Speaker 5: ball and the shift doesn't even come into play. He

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Speaker 5: hits home runs. He's on pace if he had played

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Speaker 5: close to a full season. He was on pace for

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Speaker 5: about thirty homers last year, and that's nothing to sneeze

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Speaker 5: at when you play your home games at lone Depot Park.

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Speaker 5: So the power is still there, even as he struggled

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Speaker 5: last year with him to put into context, when they

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Speaker 5: signed him, he was coming off an amazing end to

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Speaker 5: his season with the Braves. He was thirty two percent

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Speaker 5: better than league average as a hitter after being traded

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Speaker 5: from the Royals to the Braves late in the season,

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Speaker 5: and then even better than that in the postseason. That's

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Speaker 5: going by weighted runs created plus he was a great

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Speaker 5: hitter for that final three months August, September October of

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty two of twenty twenty one, the Marlins signed him,

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Speaker 5: hoping that he could carry some of that over to

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Speaker 5: his new team. As you touched on, the strikeout rate

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Speaker 5: spiked way up. He was better than ever at making

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Speaker 5: contact when he was with the Braves late that season,

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Speaker 5: but then all of a sudden he comes to the

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Speaker 5: Marlins that it's up to in the high twenties, which

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Speaker 5: is significantly worse than league average, and even worse than,

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Speaker 5: as you mentioned, his historical norms being in the mid twenties.

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Speaker 5: This is a player that I feel like, if he

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Speaker 5: does what he has historically done, he's just going to

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Speaker 5: get better results than he had last year. And so

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Speaker 5: I understand why you understand why the Marlins are still

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Speaker 5: slotting him towards the middle of their lineup and still

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Speaker 5: intending to play him every single day. Yeah, the only

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Speaker 5: thing is that you can really pick at our is

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Speaker 5: that strikeout rate and whether he put more balls in

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Speaker 5: play in the first place. And also the health factor.

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Speaker 5: We'll wait to see exactly how often he's going to

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Speaker 5: be getting those DH days to get him off his

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Speaker 5: feet after struggling with that back issue last year. That's

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Speaker 5: going to be so important. If he's simply one hundred

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Speaker 5: percent healthy, that just opens a lot of possibilities for

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Speaker 5: him at the plate. So even though he was on

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Speaker 5: the field a lot last year, he wasn't at full strength.

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Speaker 5: So that alone could make a lot of difference. I

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Speaker 5: think this is the player coming into this that we

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Speaker 5: felt most optimistic about bouncing back have has the highest

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Speaker 5: salary on the team and yet has the upside to

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Speaker 5: potentially live up to that high price tag.

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Speaker 1: And the final thing on Horse Hilaire before we move

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Speaker 1: on to the other players is defensively. Obviously, he looks

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Speaker 1: like to be the short thing and for the D eight,

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Speaker 1: But are there any reason that maybe Marlins Marlin's fans

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Speaker 1: should be worried in terms of his defense when looking

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Speaker 1: at it respectively to the other players, does that really

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Speaker 1: bring down maybe his value for the rest of the

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Speaker 1: season where he's not going to be outputting almost anything

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Speaker 1: at all defensively.

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Speaker 3: I think what you're likely to get is just negative value.

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Speaker 3: Although there were times last year and we can all

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Speaker 3: substantiate this that he did look commendable as a left fielder.

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Speaker 3: You know, robbed a couple of home runs. If I'm

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Speaker 3: not mistaken, the throwing arm as above average. I mean

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Speaker 3: stat cast metrics kind of outline that, or at least

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Speaker 3: it's slightly above average. But positioning wise, he's never been great.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I believe he's like minus eight D war

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Speaker 3: minus nine d war first career by Baseball Reference. You

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Speaker 3: look at his fielding runs and his DRS, they're literally

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Speaker 3: the exact same, minus fifty. And regardless of where you go,

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Speaker 3: if you put him in right, you put him in left,

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Speaker 3: he's below average in either spot. You put him in

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Speaker 3: one position for an extended time and everything will relatively

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Speaker 3: balance out with as far as how below average he

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Speaker 3: is going to be defensively. It's strange though, because he

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Speaker 3: reminds me a lot of Marcelo Zuna, where tools wise,

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Speaker 3: you think that he could be better than he actually

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Speaker 3: is defensively and offensively, the inconsistencies tend to run parallels.

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Speaker 4: I'm so lairs highs.

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Speaker 3: I haven't been as high as this high as we've

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Speaker 3: seen with Ozuna in Atlanta in that twenty twenty season

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Speaker 3: and that twenty sixteen twenty seventeen all Starry of Miami.

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Speaker 4: But that being said, you know, he kind.

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Speaker 3: Of just a guy that doesn't always live up to

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Speaker 3: what he is capable of doing, at least from what

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Speaker 3: we've seen at his best. Yeah, but defensively you're not

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Speaker 3: going to get much. Eli Danie I wanted to ask

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Speaker 3: you guys if there were anything that you would be

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Speaker 3: concerned about, particularly his drop and launch angle and the

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Speaker 3: fact that his hard hit rate was the lowest in

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Speaker 3: the last five years for him. Is there anything that

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Speaker 3: concerns you about that? And then can that be slightly

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Speaker 3: substantiated by the fact that his spring ops was you know,

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Speaker 3: in the early sixes, like it, and again, don't put

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Speaker 3: too much stock in spring training, but it's fifty plate appearances.

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Speaker 3: I mean that's a pretty good sample this early in

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Speaker 3: the year.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to default to health like contributing to this,

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Speaker 5: his back issues potentially coming to play when comes to

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Speaker 5: how he follows through on his swings. Even though his

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Speaker 5: launch angle was down, is still higher than the league

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Speaker 5: average as it typically was, and we saw it like

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Speaker 5: show up in certain moments where he hit some of

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Speaker 5: the most majestic home runs that anybody has hit on

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Speaker 5: this team this year. I think he could get back

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Speaker 5: to what he used to be the big wild card

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Speaker 5: in this As we talked about him in the next

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Speaker 5: couple guys, is that they Marlins have a new overhauled

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Speaker 5: they're hitting philosophy, and they're hitting coaches. They James Rowson

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Speaker 5: is out, Eric Duncan is out, Brent Brown is in,

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Speaker 5: John Mayberry is in. These are guys that have been

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Speaker 5: The players themselves have vocalized how different it is the

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Speaker 5: instruction that they're getting and the priorities that they're putting

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Speaker 5: into place, And I'm fascinated to see how that impacts

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Speaker 5: both the young guys and the veterans like Solaire, Like

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Speaker 5: what type of suggestions those coaches make, how they're the

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Speaker 5: attack plan that these hitters have could be different than

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Speaker 5: what it used to be because there it's it's like

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Speaker 5: a different depending on what pitch type you're looking for

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Speaker 5: and what zone you're looking for, you can get some

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Speaker 5: pretty different results in terms of what those swings look

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Speaker 5: like and the trajectory and the ball looks like. So

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Speaker 5: this is a guy coming off a season where, yeah,

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Speaker 5: just across the board was pretty met production, Like, there

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Speaker 5: wasn't like a clear strength to his game. There wasn't

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Speaker 5: like a terrible weakness that was exploiting him either. I Mean,

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Speaker 5: one thing that I recall that he was still doing

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Speaker 5: pretty well is he was hitting lefties, and the Marlins

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Speaker 5: really missed that when he was out. But that's the

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Speaker 5: one thing that strugged my shoulders on is exactly how

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Speaker 5: the coaching staff could impact the attack plan that these

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Speaker 5: hitters have at the plate, and how you could see

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Speaker 5: like a different distribution of batted balls depending on what

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Speaker 5: these guys are really trying to do, what their plan

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Speaker 5: is when they step into the box each time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and with that, I think that's a perfect transition

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Speaker 1: to talk about our next player. Another player again who

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Speaker 1: disappointed last season put up I believe one of the

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Speaker 1: lowest wars on the Marlins. Avisil Garcia with a negative

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Speaker 1: one point one war probably had or did have the

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Speaker 1: worst season in his career.

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Speaker 2: He had an.

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Speaker 1: Ops of I believe right here a five eighty two ops,

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Speaker 1: sixty five ops plus, have a large contract with the

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Speaker 1: Marlins or I believe the largest contract with the Marlins.

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Speaker 1: Just someone that needs to really pick it up, who's

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Speaker 1: doing good maybe even years opposed to odd years he

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Speaker 1: lost a lot of in the offseason.

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Speaker 2: Looks like a completely different person. Eli.

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Speaker 1: What can we expect with AV sal Garcia now in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three isn't because it's the odd year. Are

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Speaker 1: we expecting ivsl Garcia to just come out of nowhere

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Speaker 1: and be an All Star?

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Speaker 5: Well, we'll touch on the elephants in the uniform. First,

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Speaker 5: the fact that he was really overweight last year and

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Speaker 5: he carried that throughout most of the season, and that

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Speaker 5: had some marginal differences on the way that he was

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Speaker 5: running in his sprint speed being down a couple tenths

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Speaker 5: of a of a foot per seconds and his home

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Speaker 5: to first time being down a little bit as well.

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Speaker 5: So this is a player that throughout a lot of

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Speaker 5: his career has hit the ball on the ground a lot.

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Speaker 5: There's a pretty those fractions of a second really matter

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Speaker 5: if you're going to do that between getting out and

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Speaker 5: getting a hit. And that's one reason why if we

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Speaker 5: look at his measurables, you know the reason why he

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Speaker 5: just didn't get as many singles as he did the

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Speaker 5: year before, why he wasn't getting all base in the

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Speaker 5: first place. For this is a hitter that he has

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Speaker 5: some characteristics that I don't think you're going to change.

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Speaker 5: He is so hyper aggressive and he also swings and

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Speaker 5: misses a lot. So there are so many outs that

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Speaker 5: I don't know unless Brant Brown has this like per

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Speaker 5: natural ability to change his thinking and his planet to play,

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Speaker 5: this is a guy that is going to get out

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Speaker 5: a certain number of times, just because of the way

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Speaker 5: that he sees the ball and the way that he

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Speaker 5: doesn't necessarily recognize pitches. They're going to be outs there

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Speaker 5: no matter what. What's most important is making the most

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Speaker 5: out of all those other outcomes and making the most

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Speaker 5: out of them by ideally putting it in the air more.

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Speaker 5: He's coming off a season where his ground ball rate

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Speaker 5: was about as high as it ever had been, and

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Speaker 5: it was really high up there across all of Major

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Speaker 5: League Baseball. So hit fifty six percent of your batted

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Speaker 5: balls on the grounds league averages like forty four percent.

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Speaker 5: So that's one thing that historically he's been a little

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Speaker 5: bit better at, and that's one thing that could definitely

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Speaker 5: change with him. And what he also I noticed. I

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Speaker 5: don't know whether this was related to his body type

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Speaker 5: or anything else, he had a lot of trouble with

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Speaker 5: the pitches that were low in the strike zone. Even

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Speaker 5: when he was like swinging at pitches that were in

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Speaker 5: the zone, when they were low like knee or higher,

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Speaker 5: he just wasn't making a whole lot of hard contact,

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Speaker 5: and he certainly wasn't elevating those balls the way that

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Speaker 5: he used to. On Baseball Savant, they have it separated

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Speaker 5: by pitch locations, whether they're in the heart of the zone,

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Speaker 5: whether they're in the shadow like kind of near the

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Speaker 5: edges of the zone, whether they're outside, or whether they're

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Speaker 5: waist pitches. And when you look at the shadow of

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Speaker 5: the zone, the ones that were around the corners, especially

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Speaker 5: those that were around knee high, he just wasn't hitting

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Speaker 5: the ball hard. And when you add it all together,

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Speaker 5: by runs above average, he had been a league average

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Speaker 5: hitter on those pitches. In twenty twenty one, his last

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Speaker 5: year with the Brewers and with the Marlins, he was

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Speaker 5: twenty runs below average on pitches in the shadows. That is,

355
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Speaker 5: I believe the very worst mark in all of baseball.

356
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Speaker 5: He lost more value on those pitches around the corners

357
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Speaker 5: than he did the year before, and I imagine that's

358
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Speaker 5: one thing that he needs to focus on this year.

359
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Speaker 5: If he's able to come up with a plan for

360
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Speaker 5: making getting the barrels of the ball on those pitches.

361
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Speaker 5: For somebody that hits the ball as hard as he does,

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Speaker 5: he's right there with so lair when it comes to

363
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Speaker 5: max exit velocity at one seventeen in the general hard

364
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Speaker 5: hit rate, being in the seventy fifth percentile last year

365
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Speaker 5: that goes that lines up pretty well with what he's done.

366
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Speaker 5: He has the potential to continue to make a lot

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Speaker 5: of hard contacts and be right among the team leaders

368
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Speaker 5: and extra base hits, and to certainly improve on his

369
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Speaker 5: home run total from last year, which was only was

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Speaker 5: it only eight home runs?

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Speaker 2: So I have that right.

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Speaker 5: There's no way only eight home runs last year in

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Speaker 5: ninety eight games is unbelievable for somebody with his bad

374
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Speaker 5: ball skills and able to go to all fields. He

375
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 5: should be better than he has been. But it's about

376
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Speaker 5: recognizing there there is somewhat of a limited ceiling on

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Speaker 5: this player, considering the what year over year has shown us.

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Speaker 5: There are some things even in odd years, whether it's

379
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Speaker 5: even years or odd years, there are the lack of

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00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 5: walks and the lack of contact are kind of gonna

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Speaker 5: limit exactly what he's capable of.

382
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Speaker 3: And then you look at you know, you talked about

383
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Speaker 3: Solaire who was terrific when there was no shifts on him,

384
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Speaker 3: But then you look at Avy Garcia and you see

385
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Speaker 3: that there really isn't that much of a difference when

386
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Speaker 3: he is and isn't shifted, and that you know, parlayed

387
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Speaker 3: with the year he had last year, the Yandi Diez

388
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Speaker 3: humbling ground ball rate that he had, and the fact

389
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 3: that you know, and again I not putting too much

390
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Speaker 3: stock in it, but the fact that he started spring

391
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Speaker 3: I believe he hit four to fifty five minutes for

392
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 3: his four games this spring, and then he went on

393
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Speaker 3: a two for thirty eight stretch where he struck out

394
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Speaker 3: like about fifty percent of the time and was just

395
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Speaker 3: swinging at pitches near his eyes. And then the fact

396
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Speaker 3: that he's just like not gonna hit fastballs low and

397
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Speaker 3: in and every pitch beyond fastballs, he was, like you said,

398
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Speaker 3: field run values, he was minus twenty his swing takes

399
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 3: and like in minus seventeen. Like there's just very little

400
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 3: in the way of him rebounding in a way that

401
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 3: would justify the contract that he is getting.

402
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 4: I mean, you look you if you you know.

403
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 3: We have the stat cast metrics in front of us,

404
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 3: and everything across the board is down.

405
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 4: Beyond a couple of things that.

406
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Speaker 3: They they stabilized, they kind of stayed where they are,

407
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 3: I mean, from the expected on base he expected batting average,

408
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 3: he just kind of had a horrendous season, and Baseball

409
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 3: Reference and fangars will tell you that by total war

410
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 3: I believe Baseball Reference he was at minus one point

411
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 3: one Baseball Reference war and that's like bottom tier for

412
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 3: position players. I don't know if it's too early to

413
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,880
Speaker 3: call his contract a bust, but I would definitely say that,

414
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 3: you know, I don't have a lot of faith in

415
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Speaker 3: a rebound. The only maybe redeeming factor with Avi is

416
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Speaker 3: that my outside of Solaire, he is the better defender

417
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 3: of the two. And that doesn't even say much because

418
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 3: his overall defensive metrics are in the negatives. But they're

419
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 3: not as you know, they're not bordering on Gary Sheffield

420
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 3: numbers to a lesser extent the way that Solaire is.

421
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Speaker 3: As far as how bad of a corner outfielder type

422
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Speaker 3: he is, He's shown in the past that he can

423
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Speaker 3: be an adequate defender. He's got an above average arm,

424
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Speaker 3: he's he's pretty fast for his size. But there's just

425
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Speaker 3: a lot maybe and it could be between the ears.

426
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Speaker 3: I mean, who knows, but there's a lot that states

427
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 3: that you know, I don't know. Is it two ortent

428
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 3: of this converse already has sunken costs because I don't

429
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 3: see beyond him having another twenty seventeen or twenty twenty one,

430
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Speaker 3: him rebounding anywhere to justify the deal that Miami gave him,

431
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Speaker 3: and I'd say it's arguably one of the biggest blunders

432
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 3: that Kim Aang has made in her two plus year

433
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Speaker 3: tenures GM of the team.

434
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Speaker 5: The one thing that I do feel strongly about is

435
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 5: that they early in the year, if he does appear

436
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 5: to be the same player that he was last year,

437
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 5: they don't need to do anything drastic in terms of

438
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 5: releasing him. The next step, the incremental step, is to

439
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 5: consider platooning him and put him in situations where he's

440
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 5: facing lefty pitching, where that would be obviously a very

441
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 5: limited playing time, but that's how he kind of salvage

442
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 5: production and make sure that when he's actually hitting that

443
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 5: he has the best chance to get pictures that he

444
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 5: can make contact with. He's a guy in his career.

445
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 5: There's about one hundred point gap in ops against righty's

446
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 5: versus lefties. Seven to fourteen against righty's, that's a little

447
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 5: below average. He's eight to eleven versus lefties, which is good.

448
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 5: He's a good hitter against left handed pitchers. The strikeouts

449
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 5: are still there, but the walks are way up. Believe

450
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 5: it or not. Lewis he has like a nine percent

451
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 5: walk rate in his career when he's facing lefties. That's

452
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 5: actually a little bit better than the league average. That's

453
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 5: a part of his game. He's a more complete hitter

454
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 5: when he's putting some platoon situations between Solaire, between Brian

455
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 5: de la Cruz, and even between some of the Triple

456
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 5: A outfielders that they have in the system, like Pydon Burdick,

457
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 5: who could come up at some point. They have Gerar

458
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:53,360
Speaker 5: and Caronasion. They have players that I think can Oh,

459
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 5: you know what I should talk about the other way

460
00:24:55,400 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 5: on the when I talk about platoon partners outfielders left side, Yeah,

461
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 5: Jis Sanchez, Jazz Chishom Junior, That's who I meant some

462
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 5: reference between those two guys. They have other options to

463
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 5: play against the righties and allow him to focus on

464
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 5: what he should be focusing on. Yeah, holding out hope

465
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 5: for him to be a great everyday player, I don't

466
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 5: think is realistic. They're gonna give him a little chance

467
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 5: to redown that's understandable, but I would hope to see

468
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 5: before too long an effort made to put him in

469
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 5: favorable matchups, even if that means limiting his playing time

470
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 5: a lot.

471
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, And with Avvy, would you guys say, maybe there's

472
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 1: any hope for him maybe this season to just pick

473
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: it up. Maybe like what Lewis said in twenty seventeen

474
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 1: when he was an All Star and then when he

475
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: had his good season with the Moroaukey Brewers, do you

476
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: believe there's any hope to Avvy. Maybe there's something specifically

477
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: that if he changes that we can at least there's

478
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: someone there that can post a positive war or seven

479
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: hundred ops or even in eight hundreds. Is there something

480
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 1: that maybe you saw last season that can give you hope,

481
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: a glimmer of hope on all from Avy for the

482
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three season, even you.

483
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 4: Just plotted before I'm sorry, I go ahead.

484
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 5: You could just again point to the fact that he

485
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 5: looks the way that he looks, in the way that

486
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 5: he's saying what he's been saying. A physical and the

487
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,479
Speaker 5: mental seemed to be in a better situation than they

488
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,959
Speaker 5: were at this time a year ago. That's something. And

489
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 5: I just go back to the fact that I think

490
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 5: he could bounce back a lot against left handed pitching,

491
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 5: and if he does so enough, then that lifts up

492
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 5: the entire line and any of the flaws are kind

493
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 5: of can be outweighed if he does enough damage in

494
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 5: those favorable matchups. Not as a he's not going to

495
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 5: get back to who he was in twenty twenty one.

496
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 5: I thought that was kind of an anomaly. You just

497
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 5: said a lot of career highs in his production there,

498
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 5: and there career highs for a reason. You don't usually

499
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 5: build upon those as you get deep into your thirties.

500
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 5: I see little things that are working in this favor, though.

501
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 3: So the strange thing about it is that when your

502
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 3: bat speed starts to decline, you tend to compensate by

503
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 3: being a little bit more aggressive at the plate, And

504
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 3: he was more aggressive while maintaining similar bat speeds, although

505
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 3: the exit VLA won't indicate that. But like, if you

506
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 3: look at his last two years, the walk rate has

507
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 3: gone down at least two percent every year, And if

508
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 3: he's if that hyper aggressive approach still continues, then you know,

509
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,479
Speaker 3: I have about as much faith as I did in

510
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 3: him after I saw him Sunday when he put up

511
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 3: an over with a couple of strikeouts, Like I just

512
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 3: there's a lot that there's a lot left to the

513
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: UH to be desired with him because there's just like

514
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 3: so much that he can do that he doesn't do.

515
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 3: And honestly, at eight hundred oh ps, Danny's a pipe dream.

516
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 3: I think again he could It's not the realm of possibility.

517
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 3: But I was telling Eli head of the show that

518
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 3: if you got who he was in Milwaukee and thet

519
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: on the total scale seven to seventy five ops with

520
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 3: average defense, I think you could live with that. You know,

521
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 3: that's an above league average hitter, and for his career

522
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 3: he's really just a league average hitter. But if you

523
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 3: can get that upper end, you know, that's seven seventy

524
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 3: five maybe seven eighty oh ps, I think you'd be

525
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 3: happy with that. But overall, no, I mean, I'm not

526
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 3: really gonna back on my standard. There's too much like

527
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 3: that states that he is just not gonna be somebody

528
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: that's gonna make a positive impact on this team, And honestly,

529
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: i'd be I'd be close to saying that he's almost

530
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: done as a productive big leader. But again, there's still

531
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 3: some there that suggests that he can rebound.

532
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 4: But for me, I don't see it.

533
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 5: Yeah. Uh.

534
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,239
Speaker 1: And before we get to the next player, just a

535
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: quake recap on Avvy on his spring training one forty

536
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: three four six six ops, twenty strikeouts to only one walk.

537
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: So if there's any credence that he might not be

538
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: a productive big leaguer spring training, it would be a

539
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: great a good signs for maybe what's to come from there.

540
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: But to go from one player to another, let's go

541
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: in to Sandy's favorite battery mate, Jacob Stallings, who the

542
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: Marlins acquired in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates in

543
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two off season, for his spring training

544
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: to go a little bit of looking like that, still

545
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: not the best thirty at bats one sixty seven average

546
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: ops of four to five to three. And then we

547
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 1: go into his last season, first season with the Marlins,

548
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 1: a negative point seven war with the Fish, four home runs,

549
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 1: but there was sub highs with Jacob Stallings after the

550
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: All Star break, he did put up some decent numbers

551
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: that could look pretty decent for the Fish and something

552
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: maybe that could be leveled on to the twenty twenty

553
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: three season. Lewis, talk to me about Jacob Stallings, what

554
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: can we expect and is he just here so Sandy

555
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: can potentially repeat a Cy Young Award.

556
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, essentially you're asking, is he the David Ross to

557
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 3: r John Lester, And that's somewhat.

558
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 4: You can say that's somewhat.

559
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 3: Because nothing of what he did last year, beyond catching

560
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 3: arguably the best season by Marlins pitcher ever, is enough

561
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 3: for him to get consistent playing time. But by way

562
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 3: of the fact that the catchers that they do and

563
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: in the minor leagues, particularly Paul McIntosh is bat maybe

564
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 3: the closest to the big leagues, maybe Joe mac two is.

565
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: You know, he's here because he's got the experience, and

566
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 3: that's kind of why he's here. Like, I don't know,

567
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 3: like his career addressed a plus before he became a

568
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: Marlin was like I think it was eighty eight or

569
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 3: ninety one, and then he put together a year where

570
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 3: he was like nearly fifty percent below league average offensively

571
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 3: and that dropped to an eighty three. I think I'd

572
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 3: be sufficed to say that, like if he even just

573
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 3: did that and his defense was marginally better, not say

574
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 3: what it was in twenty twenty one, when he was

575
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: arguably the best defensive catcher in baseball. The Marlins would

576
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 3: at least feel vindicated in some regards, although you can

577
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 3: argue that they didn't even have to give up that much.

578
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 3: I mean, Zach Thompson's no longer in Pittsburgh. Connor Scott

579
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 3: has pretty much played his way out of professional baseball

580
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 3: essentially with the way he's played, So I don't know.

581
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 3: I mean, the fact that he's still in the big

582
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 3: leagues after one season, I think kinda says that they

583
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 3: wound up on a better end of this.

584
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 4: I mean, you essentially traded two.

585
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 3: Marginal prospects and one for a cy young season essentially,

586
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 3: and that's a weird kind of thing because Starling's caught

587
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 3: every inning of Sandy season, but offensively, he doesn't give

588
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 3: you anything. I liked the signing or the trade at

589
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 3: first when it happened, because he didn't strike out, his

590
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 3: on base was respectable. I believe it was about like

591
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 3: three thirty or three thirty two when the Marlins acquired him,

592
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 3: But again, he had had about like one full season

593
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: of games as a primary backstop before they went out

594
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 3: and made that trade, so it's it's kind of premature

595
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 3: that they traded for him when he did. But again,

596
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 3: like it paid dividends in some regards, but overall, he

597
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 3: just you know, a lot of ground balls. Obviously they

598
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 3: don't want him to run a lot. The framing was horrendous.

599
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 3: There were I remember there was a time there multiple

600
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 3: times last year where there were balls that were thrown

601
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 3: that were mishandled by him that the league just failed

602
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 3: to call pass balls on him. And he set a

603
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: record for consecutive games without a pass ball, which is

604
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 3: kind of an embarrassment to Johnny Bench, who I believe

605
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 3: held the record before him. So there, I don't know,

606
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 3: there's just a lot that I don't like. But he's

607
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 3: really like I like, I pretty much outlined to the outset.

608
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 3: He's here by necessity, and they're like, statistically, there's nothing

609
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: that you can draw that he does besides maybe the

610
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 3: fact that he is a slightly above average player when

611
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 3: it comes to chase rate. That suggests that he'll be

612
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,479
Speaker 3: any better. But if he is what he was, you know,

613
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 3: maybe a couple of years ago than sure. But again,

614
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 3: he's another guy that I don't have all that much

615
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 3: expectations for, and that's somebody to see I don't see

616
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 3: long term in their plans.

617
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 2: Just with Jacob Stallings.

618
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: Also, how would you guys see maybe also his second

619
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: half last season, His second half was you know, after

620
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: that All Star break was completely turned over. He had

621
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: a twoity one batting average, three eighty one, slugging for

622
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: seven four to two ops ops plus because I believe fourteen,

623
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: So he like completely different player coming back from the

624
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: second half.

625
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 2: We go back to Lewis.

626
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: When you look at his second half, there is that

627
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 1: something that can give you hope for him in terms

628
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 1: of him offensively because he did have a really great

629
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: second half. The first half he had an OPS under

630
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 1: five and then second half his OPS is close to

631
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: eight hundred. Is that something that the Mormons saw and

632
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,240
Speaker 1: wanted him to bring him back and everything?

633
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 5: I had something very particular on him because it is

634
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 5: more specific than the second half. There was this one

635
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 5: little stretch where he was as good a hitter as

636
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 5: he had ever been. I want to make sure that

637
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 5: my screen doesn't freeze on this one. But he had

638
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 5: the stretch where by weighted runs created plus during that

639
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 5: time period, it was the very best fifteen game stretch

640
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,800
Speaker 5: of his entire major league career. A one eighty nine

641
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,919
Speaker 5: or one hundred represents the league average during that blake

642
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 5: July mid August stretch, coming right out of the All

643
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 5: Star break at a time, unfortunately, where the team was

644
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 5: essentially out of it. He had struggled so much during

645
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 5: the part of the season that really mattered, and he

646
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:13,840
Speaker 5: turned it on just in time to at least improve

647
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 5: his own self esteem and his own confidence in his abilities,

648
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 5: looking not even like the player that he had been,

649
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 5: but looking at the very best version of himself. But

650
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 5: stands out during that stretch is that he only hit

651
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 5: one home run. You're never going to get any power

652
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 5: out of him. In the same way that Avi has

653
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 5: his limitations with swinging at the right pitches and making contact,

654
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 5: Stallings has his own unfortunate ceilings as well when it

655
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 5: comes to he's not going to hit for any power

656
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 5: and he's not going to run whatsoever. He's one of

657
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 5: the slowest players in all of baseball. What you need

658
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 5: to trust with him is to draw his walks as

659
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 5: Lewis reference, and to find his singles as best that

660
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 5: he can. And one thing that stood out to me

661
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 5: when he was performing at his best is that he

662
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 5: pulls kind of a reverse Org Hilaire, where he stopped

663
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,720
Speaker 5: worrying about pulling the ball. We talked about how Solaire

664
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 5: is a very pole happy guy and Stallings is more

665
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,760
Speaker 5: of the opposite. He is well below the league average,

666
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:14,919
Speaker 5: and how often he pulls the ball to the left side.

667
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 5: He uses the whole field, and I'd say he's at

668
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 5: his best when he really leans into that just tries

669
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 5: to get his bat on the ball and like just

670
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 5: stays on pitches deep into the zone and just hits

671
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 5: them where they're thrown to him and using a lot

672
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 5: of center field and right field. For his career, he's

673
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 5: somebody that has had good results when he does pull

674
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 5: the ball, but last year was kind of this drop

675
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 5: off where we saw that when he pulled the ball,

676
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 5: when he tried to hit the ball hard and do damage,

677
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 5: it would it was counterproductive. He would hit into a

678
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 5: ton of double plays and just generally didn't do damage

679
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 5: on those pitches. So he's entering a state of his

680
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 5: career where I think, more so than ever, he needs

681
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 5: to embrace his limitations and not even think about trying

682
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 5: to do extra base hit damage, more so about just

683
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 5: putting the balls in play in the first place. For

684
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 5: a guy that, as we talked about a lot, is

685
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 5: writing on his defense regardless, and I have some concerns

686
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 5: about that as well, because he is not a good

687
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 5: thrower of the ball. That's one of his main weaknesses defensively.

688
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 5: He does not have a great arm. He doesn't even

689
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 5: have a quick pop time. When he works with Sandy,

690
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 5: that kind of gets amplified because Sandy is relatively slow

691
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,919
Speaker 5: to the plate and we're coming into a year where

692
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 5: the bases are bigger than ever and we expect more

693
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 5: stolen base attempts than ever before, so he needs it.

694
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 5: It's a big task for him to try to replicate

695
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 5: what the magic that he had with Sandy Alcontra last

696
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 5: year and also being at his best at the plate.

697
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 5: I don't expect him to get fully back to that

698
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 5: twenty nineteen to twenty twenty one level offensively where he

699
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 5: was hovering around at seven hundred ops. But I think

700
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 5: it's successful if he splits the difference between last year's

701
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 5: offense and that previous established levels. So if he splits

702
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 5: a difference there, and if his defense ticks up a

703
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 5: little bit between the same way between what it was

704
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 5: last year and the gold Glove quality was the year before,

705
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 5: then you'll be satisfied. The early indications are that he

706
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 5: is going to play a lot, not only when Sandy

707
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 5: is catching, but he's going to be the primary catcher

708
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 5: over Nick Fortest to start the year. And I don't

709
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 5: think the Marlins are married to that concept. He's going

710
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 5: to need to perform a little bit, and for him

711
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 5: it just needs to be focusing on doing the little

712
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 5: things instead of worrying about being a run producer. Don't

713
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 5: try to be at a character, just embrace who he

714
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 5: is as a player, use the whole field, try to

715
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 5: do a small part at the very bottom of the lineup.

716
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,720
Speaker 1: That leaves me to ask you guys this question before

717
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 1: a gun to our final play. Stallings four Tes, You

718
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: guys can give me really quick which one would you

719
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 1: rather have for a full season as your number one

720
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: catcher for Test?

721
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 2: Are Stallings?

722
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 3: I think for Tes kind of reminds me a little

723
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 3: bit of real you know, and that he's for a catcher,

724
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,800
Speaker 3: he's a little more slender than Stalling's a lot more slender.

725
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 3: Stalling is also very tall six four six five, and

726
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 3: he's a lot so he's a lot more athletic. And

727
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: the bat a ball and the bad of ball data

728
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 3: as well as what he just has done. He's just

729
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 3: an overall pretty good hitter when he is playing for

730
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 3: the most part, suggests that i'd want Fortes.

731
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 4: Do I think he's the best defensive catcher.

732
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 3: No, but from what we saw last year relative to

733
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:46,919
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one where he almost lost it behind the plate,

734
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 3: sometimes he definitely want Fortes because you know, this is

735
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 3: a team that fails to score runs on a consistent basis.

736
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 4: I believe they're in the bottom three of.

737
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 3: Teams and run scored and justin ops plus since twenty eighteen.

738
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 3: And that's the post Stanton Realmedo era or I'm sorry,

739
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 3: post Stanton Ozuna era. Real Meino was there for the

740
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 3: first year of the downfall. But you know you want

741
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 3: so you need offense, and I could forego a little

742
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 3: bit of the catching because the Marlins already had a

743
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 3: good pitching staff, and they already tattered with the good

744
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 3: pitching staff entering twenty twenty three, despite the limitations that

745
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 3: Stallings presents as a catcher. So yeah, for Chess is

746
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 3: my guy. But Stallings is a veteran that he has

747
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:30,280
Speaker 3: essentially two full seasons as a catcher to that whatever

748
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: that may mean.

749
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 4: So I don't know.

750
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: I Yeah, I'm definitely going four chess over Stallings.

751
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would agree with that, even the forts had

752
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 5: somewhat of a total opposite where he wasn't even in

753
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 5: the big leagues to start the year he came up,

754
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 5: he was on fire offensively, and then he steadily petered out,

755
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 5: so that his numbers at the end of the year

756
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,319
Speaker 5: all of a sudden didn't look all that impressive. In

757
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 5: that case, we just need to defer to what we

758
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 5: observed and actually following him day to day. He was

759
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 5: a player that they felt confident enough to bat him

760
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 5: in the middle of the lineup a lot of times

761
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 5: and even use as their designated hitter on certain days

762
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 5: even when Stalling's was catching, because they valued his bat

763
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 5: that much. I think there is more in there. They

764
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 5: are on different ends of their career trajectory, and I

765
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 5: think Fortes will perform even better on a per plate

766
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 5: appearance basis than he did a year ago, So I'd

767
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 5: like to see him get more playing time as well.

768
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 5: He just needs to give Stalling some credit for the

769
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 5: way that he handled the pitching staff last year, especially

770
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 5: the way that he handled Sandy on contra It was

771
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 5: the same stuff being thrown as in previous years, and

772
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:46,479
Speaker 5: yet obviously the results took off several levels higher than

773
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 5: he had established prior in his career, thrown at different catchers.

774
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 5: There's something to that, and so I understand why Stallings

775
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 5: is still significant part of the team. I just threw

776
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 5: up graphic about his weighted runs created plus relative to

777
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 5: his poll rate, and it's almost perfectly disproportionate to each other.

778
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 5: Where when he pulls more, his his production goes down.

779
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 5: When he pulls less, the production spikes up quite a bit.

780
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:16,320
Speaker 5: And as we see late in the year, that is

781
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 5: when he was hitting his best, and that is when

782
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 5: he was pulling the ball for a period of time

783
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 5: about twenty percent of his bad balls. Imagine that that's

784
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 5: how few balls he was actually trying to yank instead

785
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 5: of using the whole field and just understanding that he's

786
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,240
Speaker 5: not going to do a whole lot of damage anyway,

787
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 5: So might as well stay on balance as much as

788
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 5: you can mechanically during your swing, rather than, yeah, trying

789
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 5: to do too much. Just keep it simple, Stallings.

790
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, and simple as that. We go from Kimple keep

791
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 1: it simple, Stallings, to keep it simple, Scott going on

792
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 1: Tanner Scott here our final play here in our Comeback

793
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 1: Players series picture that the Marlin Scott, along with Cole

794
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: sorrows in the trade again before last season. He ended

795
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 1: up with a four to three to one ERA for

796
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: a total of a zero point zero war, twenty saves

797
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 1: for the Marlins ERA plus of ninety five, a whip

798
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 1: of one point six one six point six walks per nine.

799
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 1: What should we expect from someone? Is he no longer

800
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 1: the closer? Can we expecting to close out games?

801
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: And what way?

802
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 1: And what role does Tanner Scott have with the Fish

803
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three.

804
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 5: I guess we could begin with the end part because

805
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 5: Skips Schumacher did speak on that today. He noted that

806
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,800
Speaker 5: it was Dylan Floro and aj Puok and Tanner Scott

807
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 5: that we're going to be in the mix for closing

808
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 5: opportunities as the season begins. That goes to show that

809
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 5: they don't feel he's all that far removed from the

810
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 5: form that he showed in the middle of the season,

811
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 5: and they still think that he get high leverage outs,

812
00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 5: even potentially against right handed hitters, and not only being

813
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 5: in a specialist role, so they still have some faith

814
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 5: in him coming out of spring training base on what

815
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 5: I saw, he doesn't really fit in this episode. Lewis

816
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 5: just wanted to talk about him because if you look

817
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 5: at last year, there were periods of time where he

818
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 5: was the best reliever on the team. I wouldn't say

819
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,720
Speaker 5: he's a bounce back candidate just because his established level

820
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,919
Speaker 5: of performance isn't really the same as what we're talking

821
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 5: about with these other guys, like he had short season

822
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 5: success in twenty twenty. And then besides that, this is

823
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 5: who he's been. He is somebody. I noted this during

824
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:34,359
Speaker 5: the offseason. He is the highest career walk rate out

825
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 5: of all active pictures in baseball with a minimum of

826
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 5: two hundred innings. Nobody for their careers has walked more

827
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 5: and had a substantial major league career among current pitchers

828
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 5: than Tanner Scott. This has been an issue throughout his

829
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 5: career with throwing strikes. But what I wanted to note

830
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 5: with him is this pretty interesting trend is that he

831
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,839
Speaker 5: started the year last year relatively hot, and he did

832
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 5: it while lying so much on his slider. Early in

833
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,760
Speaker 5: the year, he was throwing his slider almost every single pitch,

834
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 5: even though the most hantilizing aspect of him is that

835
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 5: he's a lefty that throws a high nineties fastball. He

836
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 5: really used the fastball early on, and as the season

837
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 5: went on, he very steadily tweaked his pitch mix. It

838
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 5: was this really gradual but consistent trend I'll get on

839
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 5: right here, where there's a little bit more fastballs. The

840
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 5: fastballs go up, did the sliders go down, And by

841
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 5: the end of the year it was almost a fifty

842
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 5: to fifty split in that reguard. I just found that

843
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 5: interesting that he eventually arrived at a point where he

844
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 5: was alternating those pitches after being almost exclusively a one

845
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 5: pitch pitcher early in the year. So he's a very

846
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 5: fascinating player, not necessarily a bounce back, just because some

847
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,720
Speaker 5: of his best performances of his career were this past

848
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 5: season during that middle portion when he got the closer's role.

849
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 5: But as we know, he lost that role and never

850
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,240
Speaker 5: really got it back or the second half of the season,

851
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 5: and for good reason, because the walks are there, and yeah,

852
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 5: there are times where he's surprisingly hittable, even for the

853
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 5: quality of stuff that he has. But Lewis, I know

854
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:15,439
Speaker 5: you have a lot to say about Tanner Scott. Yeah,

855
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 5: do you agree with this play that seems to have

856
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 5: him entering the year as when they're high leverage arms.

857
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 5: Do you think he's ready to reprise that role early on?

858
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 3: I mean, you could look at his splits by innings

859
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 3: and kind of find a uniform role there. But Skip

860
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 3: has been adam in at saying that there's going to

861
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 3: be a fluidity, and not just on the position player side,

862
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 3: but as far as how they're going to go about

863
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 3: closing games. I think if you're gonna go a safer bet,

864
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 3: Dylan Floro is the guy, because I mean, we saw

865
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: Dylan Flora went through extended stretches last year where you know,

866
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 3: he was going ten, twelve, fifteen innings without allowing an

867
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 3: earned run at one point, and he doesn't do it

868
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 3: with the kind of kind of and say that this

869
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,320
Speaker 3: sexy stuff that.

870
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 4: You know Scott does.

871
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 3: Scott is forcing fastball and then he throws his slider

872
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 3: to the extent that it humbles. The amount of which

873
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 3: Steven Oker throws it, I believe if you look at

874
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 3: stad Head or Savant, it's sixty three percent of the time,

875
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 3: even though as he like previously mentioned, that kind of

876
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 3: started to balance out where it was about fifty to

877
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: fifty at the end of the year. But yeah, the

878
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 3: walk rate is the most concerning thing. And that's why

879
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 3: I think when you go when you assess, you know,

880
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 3: pictures roles by how they do in high, low, medium

881
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 3: leverage indexes.

882
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 4: He's the last guy you want closing games.

883
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,439
Speaker 3: You know, he was in the first percentile walk rate,

884
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 3: and among all relievers you could set that minimum as

885
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 3: low as sixty innings fifty, forty and thirty, he had

886
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 3: the worst walk rate. It was like six point six

887
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 3: walks per nine and I believe it was you know,

888
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 3: there were It's I mean, that's just bad when you

889
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 3: have that kind of stuff. It's like, I mean, the

890
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 3: image that speaks into mind for us is it's the

891
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 3: walk off home run that he gave up to a

892
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 3: believe Garrett's Stubb or was it Bryson Scott. I'm blanking

893
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 3: on who it was, but it was in Philadelphia. It

894
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 3: was a hanging slider after he's after he had failed

895
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 3: to kind of consistently throw strikes, and you know, he

896
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 3: got hit hard there. But when the Martins acquired him,

897
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 3: they acquired him on the president on the premise that

898
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,359
Speaker 3: his expected stats suggest that he should be better, and

899
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,879
Speaker 3: we kind of got some of that in twenty twenty two,

900
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 3: where he still put guys away. I mean, remember Matt Barnes,

901
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:28,800
Speaker 3: who the team recently acquired, was to a lesser extent

902
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,919
Speaker 3: what Scott was in twenty twenty two. He put guys away.

903
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 3: He strikes guys out. I mean, Channer Scott going back

904
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 3: toward days in Baltimore, was always able to put guys

905
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:39,479
Speaker 3: away because, like you said, he like he's a lefty

906
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 3: with an upper nineties fastball. When it's working, he has

907
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 3: a very good slider. He generally induces his like weak

908
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:49,879
Speaker 3: contact like think like Jonathan Lewisaga, but just not ever

909
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 3: knowing where the ball is going. And yeah, it's you

910
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 3: don't want another four era with the three to six FIP.

911
00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 3: I mean, it's encouraging for a team that were to

912
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 3: take a chance on him, but even then, like you

913
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 3: kind of just don't want to give him high leverage

914
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 3: innings early in the season because of what the mark

915
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 3: of what the actual division itself is. You know, if

916
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 3: the Marlins have any shot at going to the playoffs,

917
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 3: I think you need to kind of offset all of

918
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 3: the deficiencies that you have, whether that's on the defensive side.

919
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,840
Speaker 3: Working with the fact that the Mets loss at Windez,

920
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 3: so they may struggle to close games. The Phillies are

921
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 3: without Reeys Hoskins. They're also with out their top in

922
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: Chi prosci Andrew Painter. So I think it may be

923
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 3: a deviation from analytics, but it could be best to

924
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:35,760
Speaker 3: say that they need to take advantage of, I guess

925
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:39,719
Speaker 3: the benefits that have been allotted to them and kind

926
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 3: of put out their best guys on respective nights to win.

927
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 3: I think definitely, if you're putting Scott out in a

928
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 3: lot of ninth inning situations, that you're going to lose

929
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 3: more games than you would expect. But that also comes

930
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 3: down to how just you tamber your expectations. He's not

931
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:59,720
Speaker 3: somebody i'd want to give ninth inning innings two because

932
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:03,320
Speaker 3: of what we've seen, and like you said, that trend

933
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 3: of just suspect control has carried him for the entirety

934
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:09,879
Speaker 3: of his career. I mean, like, you have a walk

935
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 3: rate as high as he kind of boasts generally, why

936
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 3: would you want that guy closing game for you?

937
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: Yeah?

938
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 2: The last thing, very last thing before we go, I

939
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:23,359
Speaker 2: wanted to get finally.

940
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: The results from both of you guys. Between these four players,

941
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: which one do you believe will be will have the

942
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:35,359
Speaker 1: best season in twenty twenty three? Almost a prediction out

943
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:40,240
Speaker 1: of these four, Let's go Eli, Tanner, Scott, Stallings, Avy,

944
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 1: Hoys Silaire, which.

945
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 2: One has the best season?

946
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 3: A lair?

947
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 5: Keep it simple, all.

948
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 2: Right, same question to you, mister Lewis.

949
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 4: It would just be so lair.

950
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 3: And that's based on the bad of ball data that

951
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 3: Eli noted, the shift data.

952
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:56,000
Speaker 4: And everything else.

953
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 3: He's closer, He's a closer to a shirt then, and

954
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 3: that's because they're the expectations are slightly tampered.

955
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:06,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, and for mine, I'll go the same thing. Let's

956
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 1: go thirty two Homers, Horse, Hilaire, fix season out of him.

957
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:15,240
Speaker 1: And with that that's our episode of Phishology. For myself, Daniel,

958
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:20,240
Speaker 1: for Eli, for Lewis, this is physology. And go watch

959
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 1: the opening day game between the Mets, Go watch the

960
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 1: all the series, go cheering on, and remember we will

961
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: give you coverage of this every day on Fish Stripes

962
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 1: and on Phishology. We look to give you more episodes

963
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 1: once the season starts.

964
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 2: Always go fish