Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom keene Jailey.
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
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Speaker 1: now to get the conversation started on radio on television.
Speaker 1: To help you prepare for that you aren't. In the
Speaker 1: equity market, Gregg Bottle joins US with BMP Perry, Head
Speaker 1: of Equity and Derivative Strategy, Greg what does the derivative
Speaker 1: markets say the Greek letters? What does it say about
Speaker 1: developing confidence towards two thousand twenty one. Well, I think
Speaker 1: it's an interesting story in the In the volatility market,
Speaker 1: we've seen the VIX come down considerably and twins, as
Speaker 1: you point out, has been a bit of a low
Speaker 1: for the last six months. All of you as though
Speaker 1: it's likely to go lower into the new year. We've
Speaker 1: seen a huge amount of money and be put to
Speaker 1: work in the equity market, but we haven't seen the
Speaker 1: same type of return to short volatility strategies that we
Speaker 1: saw pre COVID, So we think that could be a
Speaker 1: big story for Q one next year. We get some
Speaker 1: notes whenever a guest comes on the program, and the
Speaker 1: guest quite kindly sends over their thoughts. And I'm looking
Speaker 1: at these notes right now. Jonathan Farrow laughed at me
Speaker 1: the last time I was on for my quote, more
Speaker 1: virus and sellers are likely to drive the market. Since then,
Speaker 1: we have seen massive inflows into US equities. Wasn't doubting you, Greg,
Speaker 1: wasn't doubting you. Just thought the line was a bit cliche.
Speaker 1: You've expected more inflows, Greg, Well, we think the rate
Speaker 1: of piece of inflows is going to slow considerably now.
Speaker 1: So importantly, we don't think we're going to see outflows
Speaker 1: from the US equity markets, but we do think we've
Speaker 1: seen a huge amount of money be put to work.
Speaker 1: We've seen big inflows in the CFTC data for the future,
Speaker 1: We've seen multi year highs in terms of the inflows
Speaker 1: into the E t F universe, and importantly, some of
Speaker 1: the quantitative strategies that we tracked have really re levered.
Speaker 1: So we think that massive pace of inflows we've seen
Speaker 1: over the last six weeks is going to slow considerably,
Speaker 1: But we don't think we're going to move into an
Speaker 1: environment where we're seeing net outflows, so we think that
Speaker 1: could just be supportive of a slower pace of equity
Speaker 1: gains going forward. Greg, this is actually out of consensus
Speaker 1: a little bit in terms of people saying that the
Speaker 1: retail investor is now actually getting more confident to put
Speaker 1: cash into equities and that you hadn't seen that full
Speaker 1: rotation until very recently and that will gain steam. Is
Speaker 1: that your sense as well that other people kind of
Speaker 1: have too much faith in this cash coming off the sidelines.
Speaker 1: I put in quotes because I know that that's a
Speaker 1: contentious phrase. Yeah, I don't necessarily think so. I do
Speaker 1: think more money can potentially be put to work. I
Speaker 1: just don't really think it can continue in the pace
Speaker 1: that it has over the last six weeks. A lot
Speaker 1: of these indicators we see are really at the highs
Speaker 1: that we've seen over a multi year period, and normally
Speaker 1: these things mean revert So you know, as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: I don't think that means you necessarily see a reversal
Speaker 1: in those flows, but it's just much slower rate of pace.
Speaker 1: And the interesting thing it's almost every indicator we look
Speaker 1: at core positioning is extremely stretched. E t F flows
Speaker 1: are extremely stretched. Futures positioning is very stretched, quantity of
Speaker 1: strategies are very stretched. So really I think that there's
Speaker 1: not as much of a wall of money on the
Speaker 1: sidelines to step in as maybe there was six weeks ago.
Speaker 1: I got this really strange dynamic at the moment, though,
Speaker 1: Greg where By, typically in the future there's always something
Speaker 1: to worry about, but at the moment in the future,
Speaker 1: there's something to be hopeful about, and in the near
Speaker 1: term there's something to worry about. Brick walk me through
Speaker 1: how unusual that might be for you, and how the
Speaker 1: markets capturing that story. Yeah, I think equity strategists often
Speaker 1: talk about it in terms of climbing the wall of worry,
Speaker 1: and that you know, one of the reasons to be
Speaker 1: optimistic about equities is when everybody else is worried, and
Speaker 1: when you can get past those events, potentially that can
Speaker 1: drive a bullish catalyst for markets. I think when we
Speaker 1: look to next year, one of the things that we
Speaker 1: are probably a little bit concerned about is that argue
Speaker 1: that we're going to see a cyclical reopening in the economy,
Speaker 1: me the market will perform well. Value outperformed growth is
Speaker 1: probably something of a consensus call now, So that's probably
Speaker 1: one of the key risks. But I do think those
Speaker 1: drivers are very strong, and I do think that can
Speaker 1: that can play out next year. There's gamma, acceleration, convexity,
Speaker 1: whatever word you want to use for it. It's at
Speaker 1: acceleration folks within markets. The ambiguity of gamma Is it
Speaker 1: good for our viewers and listeners are not? If we
Speaker 1: get an acceleration of good news or a continued acceleration,
Speaker 1: is that good? Does it matter about gamma right now? Well?
Speaker 1: I think when we look at the options market, the
Speaker 1: thing that we see is that VIX is often used
Speaker 1: as a barometer of fit, and one of the things
Speaker 1: that we haven't seen is a return to the pre
Speaker 1: pre February, pre March levels of volatility. We think we
Speaker 1: could see a new volatility regime in Q one next year,
Speaker 1: whether VIX breaks through twenty doesn't go back to low
Speaker 1: teens levels, but does trade in the mid teens high
Speaker 1: teens levels, and that could see some of the short
Speaker 1: volatility strategies really start to put money to work again.
Speaker 1: What that typically does is have a self reinforcing impact
Speaker 1: of depressing volatility and equity markets, and that's generally a
Speaker 1: positive thing for risky assets. So Greg, just to sort
Speaker 1: of tie this all together, you see with consensus in
Speaker 1: terms of the positivity, but perhaps uh not with some
Speaker 1: of your colleagues who anticipate some pretty big gains next year.
Speaker 1: What are you looking for in terms of the potential
Speaker 1: returns on the SMP and where you expect the biggest gains.
Speaker 1: So we think that there could be single digit gains
Speaker 1: on the SMP. I think we're going to see really
Speaker 1: strong earnings growth that's going to be offset somewhat by
Speaker 1: some multiple compression. So I think we can get mid
Speaker 1: to high single digit gains from the broader equity market
Speaker 1: in terms of rotation. I already said that, you know,
Speaker 1: we like the value versus growth story, but we do
Speaker 1: think it's a somewhat kind of consensus view. Where we
Speaker 1: differentiate ourselves on that view is we think the value
Speaker 1: sectors that have led lead lead the value urgents in
Speaker 1: the last six weeks, energy and financials, we don't think
Speaker 1: are going to be the sectors that are going to
Speaker 1: drive the value resurgence next week. I think the banks
Speaker 1: in particular at risk of being a valued trap next
Speaker 1: year given the rate environment that we still find ourselves
Speaker 1: in greg great final thought to leave it on. Thanks
Speaker 1: for anathing this year. Enjoy the sparring great battle of
Speaker 1: being preparable. Thank you, sir, Thank you very much. Jeremy
Speaker 1: Stretch joining now with c IBC on this historic moment. Jeremy,
Speaker 1: there has always been a distinctive feel to Switzerland. There
Speaker 1: has always been the pressure of the gnomes of Zurich
Speaker 1: in their nation that they have to protect themselves from
Speaker 1: the wall of money coming in that would form outright deflation.
Speaker 1: Is this an unfair statement of manipulation to Zurich and
Speaker 1: the people of Switzerland. Well, of course, this particular issue
Speaker 1: has been brewing for some time, and coleardly the Swiss
Speaker 1: of very mindful of that, and indeed the SNB have
Speaker 1: increased their visibility visa VI their intervention in order to
Speaker 1: try and pocate the U s treasury. So in a
Speaker 1: sense they were kind of anticipating this risk would come,
Speaker 1: and unusually correctly say the Swiss are often recipients of
Speaker 1: a wall of money when there are periods in episodes
Speaker 1: of uncertainty. What the SMB have been attempting to achieve
Speaker 1: is to maintain currency competitiveness with their primary trading partner,
Speaker 1: and that is a FURS Germany, and also to limit
Speaker 1: disinflationary deflationary tendencies um. And it is very much the
Speaker 1: case that they've been utilizing the policy of the currency
Speaker 1: as a means or a mechanism to do that, other
Speaker 1: than perhaps following some of the other benchmarks we've seen
Speaker 1: from other global centiment in terms of asset purchases. So
Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's in a sense the SMB have
Speaker 1: been pursuing a very different policy which has ended up
Speaker 1: with them getting into the crossheads of the U. S. Treasury.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure necessarily it's you know, the treasury sort
Speaker 1: of doctrine is going to really sort of change the
Speaker 1: dynamic for the SMB. And of course it's very interesting
Speaker 1: that the reporters come out today when the SMB will
Speaker 1: been making their latest policy decision tomorrow. Is if one
Speaker 1: would expect them to continue to argue that was frank
Speaker 1: is still highly valued and they will continue to intervene.
Speaker 1: So it's it's very much the case of the two
Speaker 1: sides are I think highlighting the sort of differential positions,
Speaker 1: But I'm not sure necessari is going to change the
Speaker 1: game that much. The SMB says it doesn't engage in
Speaker 1: currency manipulation. They also say they're willing to intervene more
Speaker 1: strongly in the FX market. These two words are important, Jeremy,
Speaker 1: manipulation and intervention, and I want to sit on that
Speaker 1: just for a moment. I was lucky enough to spend
Speaker 1: a lot of time in Switzerland to visit the Swiss
Speaker 1: National Bank. I was in the meetings. I would sit
Speaker 1: there and talk to President Jordad after the meetings as well,
Speaker 1: and he would often talk about intervening in the EFFECTS market.
Speaker 1: He wasn't shy about it. But manipulation is a different word, Jeremy.
Speaker 1: Is that just the technicality or is that important? I
Speaker 1: think it is important because, of course, manipulation implies a
Speaker 1: degree of sort of almost malevolence. I trying to gain
Speaker 1: an implicit advantage at the expense of your competitor over
Speaker 1: your counterpart um, and that is always seen as a
Speaker 1: very retrograde step. But I think in the context of
Speaker 1: the SMB and other parties who are aiming to intervene
Speaker 1: to try and maintain economic stability or to maintain, as
Speaker 1: I say, a competitive degree of competitiveness. V. Two B
Speaker 1: trading partners, then there is a different interpretation. So I
Speaker 1: think there is a material difference between the intervention and manipulation,
Speaker 1: and I think the question is whether the U. S.
Speaker 1: Treasury are prepared to extep that differential when it comes
Speaker 1: to those negotiations going forward. But clearly the the SMB
Speaker 1: do meet the criteria as laid out by the U. S.
Speaker 1: Treasury in terms of being labeled a manipulator. But as
Speaker 1: I said, I think it's not a malevolent process that
Speaker 1: the Swiss are embarking upon. And I think about an
Speaker 1: important distinction, Jeremy, other than name calling, does this have
Speaker 1: any significance for actual trading action? I think probably not.
Speaker 1: I mean we, I mean this report is one that
Speaker 1: we've often wait off, wait for and get excited about,
Speaker 1: but then when it comes, we debated and discussed it
Speaker 1: for a few minutes, and then we move on to
Speaker 1: other issues. And I think of the context what you've
Speaker 1: been discussing in the course of the last half an hour,
Speaker 1: I think there are much bigger fish to fry in
Speaker 1: terms of the tortuous discussions regarding the stimulus process in
Speaker 1: the US and other broader dynamics. In terms of the
Speaker 1: COVID response mechanisms, So I'm not sure necessarily this report
Speaker 1: in itself really adds too much to the to the narrative.
Speaker 1: As I say, the timing is interesting in view of
Speaker 1: the SMB decisions tomorrow, but I think it's one which
Speaker 1: we will we will move on from relatively quickly. And
Speaker 1: of course, you know, the U. S. Treasury sectory is,
Speaker 1: you know, task with this negotiating with the counterparts. But
Speaker 1: of course that U. S. Treasury Secretary will be also
Speaker 1: changing relatively quickly. So I think the you know, the
Speaker 1: moon music or the you know, the the nate of
Speaker 1: the news cycle will move on very quickly. The other issue,
Speaker 1: of course, is that the Swiss just haven't been that
Speaker 1: successful at this since early addressing the FX market. Jeremy.
Speaker 1: Great to catch up, sir, Jeremy Stretch of C I
Speaker 1: B C patients this morning. Roshall Meyer, Bank of America, Michelle,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for waiting for this moment. Are
Speaker 1: we in recession? I look at the e CEO screen
Speaker 1: and McKee tells me to bring up negative revision and
Speaker 1: retail grim retail. Can you call any BR recess n
Speaker 1: B E R recession? Certainly not um I think what
Speaker 1: we're seeing is a bit of a payback after exceptionally
Speaker 1: strong growth in retail spend and in good spending in
Speaker 1: general the last several months. And remember also in November,
Speaker 1: this is going to get a little wonky. But the
Speaker 1: seasonal factors tend to be very large. When you're looking
Speaker 1: at month ever month changes um for retail sales on
Speaker 1: a seasonally adjusted basis, do you have to account for
Speaker 1: the fact that you typically have these really large seasonal
Speaker 1: adjustments in November in sto stem as a result of
Speaker 1: the holiday season, and there's this is not a normal environment,
Speaker 1: far from it. So the way people are spending, the
Speaker 1: timing of the spend has really shifted, which is probably
Speaker 1: making these these these kind of month over month comparisons
Speaker 1: that much more difficult right now, that much more difficult,
Speaker 1: meaning that perhaps it paints a worse picture than is
Speaker 1: actually the case. Is that what you're in saying here, Michelle, Well, potentially,
Speaker 1: I mean if you look at more high frequency data,
Speaker 1: so that gets spending on a daily basis from a
Speaker 1: variety of different sources, what you see is that you know,
Speaker 1: typically Black Friday, UM Cyber Monday, there's a big increase
Speaker 1: in spending really Thanksgiving and Black Friday with doorbuster sales,
Speaker 1: people go to stores and they buy. That didn't happen
Speaker 1: this year as a result of COVID, so you don't
Speaker 1: have that in person UM thrust of sales around a
Speaker 1: two to three day period UM, which historically when you
Speaker 1: seasonal adjust the data, you're looking for that type of increase,
Speaker 1: particularly things like clothing and department stores. Is Mike just
Speaker 1: mentioned um, So yes, I think it's eight that that
Speaker 1: that there was a weakening this month relative particularly to
Speaker 1: what you typically see in a holiday season. But again,
Speaker 1: part of that reflects these seasonal adjustments, and part of
Speaker 1: it reflects the fact that there was so much momentum
Speaker 1: heading into this period that some softening, you know, isn't
Speaker 1: that surprising. Are you ready to pencil in a negative
Speaker 1: print for pyrolls for December, Michelle, I don't think the
Speaker 1: data is quite pointing that yet. UM. We have to
Speaker 1: continue to monitor claims. I mean, the claim status looked weaker,
Speaker 1: realizing again the noise and the weekly data, but there
Speaker 1: has been some concerning signs for claims UM. Some of
Speaker 1: the other high frequency data points that we monitor, so
Speaker 1: survey data, UM, monitor data on small businesses from home
Speaker 1: base and the like. Um, it's so some softening, but
Speaker 1: certainly not a collapse. So I think it's it's very
Speaker 1: likely that relative to even the November weakening for jobs,
Speaker 1: we will see further softening in December. But it's not
Speaker 1: obvious yet that will be a negative current. We have
Speaker 1: to just wait and see what the rest of the
Speaker 1: data shows up. Well, let's think about lessons learned over
Speaker 1: the last couple of months the Michelle and trying to
Speaker 1: apply them to Q on Q two next year. The
Speaker 1: tail winds is obvious, the vaccinations have started. The head
Speaker 1: winds are obvious. New York could be locked down within weeks.
Speaker 1: We're seeing the same thing in California and elsewhere across
Speaker 1: the United States. It's kind of got a case study
Speaker 1: on how this economy responds going into lockdown and coming
Speaker 1: back out. Michelle, what have you learned about that and
Speaker 1: how are you applying that thinking to wordly next year? Sure,
Speaker 1: so it's a big deal. I mean we shunt over
Speaker 1: a look the near term challenges for the economies. Was again,
Speaker 1: the data is showing um and and and I think
Speaker 1: a lot of it does reflect the fact that the
Speaker 1: rising corby CAS has has been significant and the responses
Speaker 1: from governments have been significant in terms of the restrictions.
Speaker 1: And that's playing and it's making you know, an impact
Speaker 1: in the data. But it's very very different than in
Speaker 1: the spring. In the spring when we had lockdowns, there
Speaker 1: was an extreme collapse of economic activity. This time around,
Speaker 1: it there's a greater ability to navigate these restrictions. People
Speaker 1: can move back to more virtual workforce, they could shift
Speaker 1: back to buying more online. Um. There's a more dynamic economy,
Speaker 1: which I think is helping to buffer some of the pain.
Speaker 1: Doesn't stop it. There still is a softening and we're
Speaker 1: only looking for one percent GDP growth in Q one,
Speaker 1: so we're forecasting this moderation and growth. Um. But but
Speaker 1: it's very different this time around in terms of those
Speaker 1: restrictions than it was back in the spring, given how
Speaker 1: the economy has been able to navigate it. If you're
Speaker 1: just joining us on Bloomberg Radio, on Bloomberg Television Michelle
Speaker 1: Meyer of Bank of America Securities, Head of all of
Speaker 1: US Economics, you'll continue where this. We're following not three,
Speaker 1: but now four stories. Let me get to the quick
Speaker 1: one Bitcoin over twenty dollars extraordinary. It has been a moonshot.
Speaker 1: We'll have some more on that through the day as well.
Speaker 1: We have stimulus in Washington. We're gonna have that on
Speaker 1: in a moment. Here we're looking at retail sales with
Speaker 1: Michelle Myers, and of course currency manipulation by Vietnam and Switzerland.
Speaker 1: What you need to know is yields our set high
Speaker 1: or here uh this morning with futures up six down,
Speaker 1: futures up a fractional fourteen Michelle Meyer. The oddity here
Speaker 1: are these huge swings of March, the huge recovery bounce,
Speaker 1: and some of the vectors here right now are a
Speaker 1: little bit uncertain. How does stimulus presumed affect your world?
Speaker 1: How does stimulus affect retail sales? Well, it has a
Speaker 1: strictly direct leak through the consumer um. When you think
Speaker 1: about the ability and the willingness of the consumers spend
Speaker 1: the extent that they're getting more money in through stimulus,
Speaker 1: they have a greater ability to spend. Now, of course,
Speaker 1: with restrictions, with lockdowns, that limits how much they can
Speaker 1: engage in the economy, how much they can spend. You
Speaker 1: can't go to stores as much, they can't go to
Speaker 1: restaurants as much they can buy a lot online. Um,
Speaker 1: So it changes the composition of spent. But if stimulus
Speaker 1: is coming in, if funds are coming in, as of
Speaker 1: course the purchasing power of the consumer. And that was
Speaker 1: extremely clear back in the middle of April, when stimulus
Speaker 1: funds first start to be distributed, even with the economy
Speaker 1: still largely in lockdown, we saw consumer spending turnaround as
Speaker 1: people went out and started to spend those stimulus funds.
Speaker 1: And then once the economy reopened, it unleashed quite a
Speaker 1: lot of spending, so so so the it was much
Speaker 1: more extreme turns back in the spring, from you know,
Speaker 1: economy that was essentially shut down to one that was
Speaker 1: you know, brought back to life very very quickly and
Speaker 1: very very abruptly in some ways because of that stimulus
Speaker 1: and because of the reopening. UM, the turnaround this time
Speaker 1: is gonna be much much more more modest, despite restrictions
Speaker 1: being put in place as a result of the COVID rise. UM.
Speaker 1: It's the economy has been able to really kind of
Speaker 1: work around that in a way that is much much
Speaker 1: different than the spring. So you're not going to see
Speaker 1: those big swings this time around. And our review Michelle,
Speaker 1: there is this question though, especially if this nine billion
Speaker 1: dollar plan as reported by political goes through that would
Speaker 1: include direct payments to individuals that's considered by some to
Speaker 1: be more inflationary. How much could that increase your inflation
Speaker 1: expectation for next year? Should it be a past as
Speaker 1: we seem to be seeing the parameters? Sure? So, I
Speaker 1: mean if you think about just looking at cash held
Speaker 1: on hand in banks or you know, just money suply
Speaker 1: measures or the savings rate, there's a lot of cash
Speaker 1: floating out there already um and with the stimulus likely
Speaker 1: to be enacted and potentially with direct payments to consumers,
Speaker 1: that's going to just add to those cash piles um
Speaker 1: over time it's spent that creates a nice, healthy response
Speaker 1: through the real economy, and if that really builds on
Speaker 1: itself and gains a lot momentum, than sure it is inflationary.
Speaker 1: But it really important link is that the real economy
Speaker 1: has to pick up. People have to use that money
Speaker 1: and push it into the economy. It's not just inflationary
Speaker 1: because it's been created and and this is so important
Speaker 1: John Farroll. In terms of the inflation dynamics, we see
Speaker 1: Switzerland battling deflation, their arch fear for folks pushing five
Speaker 1: years with their currency. Interview mentioned that we have seen
Speaker 1: and johnet goes to the disinflation worry and the heritage
Speaker 1: of United Kingdom real wage declines that were seen across
Speaker 1: much of the twentieth century. John Ferroll, what's the inflation
Speaker 1: wins in the United Kingdom? Given what Ms Meyers says
Speaker 1: about inflation dynamics in the US? What a lot of
Speaker 1: what we've seen over the last several years has been
Speaker 1: currency driven. I think in the near term now we're
Speaker 1: just trying to work out what on earth is going
Speaker 1: on in this labor market, which is basically levitating at
Speaker 1: the moment, suspended from the forces of gravity. Lastly, because
Speaker 1: of what has been going on the fiscal side, Michelle
Speaker 1: has been really difficult to get a read on these
Speaker 1: labor markets because they've been so well supported by fiscal policy.
Speaker 1: How's that going to change through twenty one? So I
Speaker 1: think for the you know, the labor market hasn't received
Speaker 1: the same degree of support as the consumer. For example,
Speaker 1: right when you think about how the stingles was designed
Speaker 1: in the US, there is much more around direct payments
Speaker 1: to make sure that consumers have money to spend and
Speaker 1: that they can help to lubricate the economy. But in
Speaker 1: terms of the labor markets, there were extreme losses. You know, um,
Speaker 1: over twenty million people lost their jobs. Were more than
Speaker 1: halfway back in terms of recovery UM. And a lot
Speaker 1: of sectors are fully recovered, but there's a lot that aren't.
Speaker 1: A lot of the services leave your hospitality workers that
Speaker 1: were employee prior to COVID are still out of work
Speaker 1: going on almost a year um that they will have
Speaker 1: not had employment. So um. You know, there's still a
Speaker 1: lot of healing that has to be done from the
Speaker 1: labor market. And I think where stimulus plays a role
Speaker 1: is actually it creates a bit of a gap between
Speaker 1: income which is elevated and job creation which is still
Speaker 1: at levels that are pretty low and pretty recessionary UM.
Speaker 1: So the stimulus is really bridging that gap and hoping
Speaker 1: that it can help generate and buy enough time for
Speaker 1: the labor market to fully heal itself and then you
Speaker 1: get income creation naturally through the labor market. But that
Speaker 1: hasn't fully happened yet. Michelle always fantastic to catch up
Speaker 1: with you. What a morning for it right now, I'm
Speaker 1: the pandemic and we've really taken pride of a cross
Speaker 1: section globally of physicians and surgeons looking at the medicine,
Speaker 1: and of course the medicine now is to deploy the vaccine.
Speaker 1: Catherine Baumgarten is a the Oxener of Louisiana, Director of
Speaker 1: Infection Control and Prevention, and joins us about the real
Speaker 1: world of getting the vaccine out. Dr Baumgarten, I know
Speaker 1: you and Dr Emery down there on speaking terms, but
Speaker 1: there's got to be a lot of stresses about actually
Speaker 1: getting the vaccine out. What have you learned? What is
Speaker 1: the critical stress of moving the vaccine forward? Is it
Speaker 1: nothing more than the temperature of the shots? Well, there's
Speaker 1: a lot that goes involved into getting the vaccine from
Speaker 1: the shipper back to a patient's or a person's arm, honestly,
Speaker 1: so there's lots of steps. We've been working on this
Speaker 1: for months. Actually. We have a multi disciplinary group UM
Speaker 1: consisting of pharmacy, communications, are on earthing, staff, administration, UM,
Speaker 1: all of us working to get this vaccine from point
Speaker 1: A to point B, which is to get it into
Speaker 1: people so that we can start to have some helpe
Speaker 1: and some relief from this pandemic. Um. The cold storage
Speaker 1: is quite a challenge and that has been amazing to
Speaker 1: watch in terms of getting the freezers, getting the case
Speaker 1: from Viser, from the shipping company, and then unloading it
Speaker 1: properly and making sure that then it is thought properly
Speaker 1: for the person to receive the vaccine. So all those
Speaker 1: steps are critical, all of them are important, and so
Speaker 1: every single one of them is not taken lightly. We
Speaker 1: prepared um. We actually have done a trial with Viser,
Speaker 1: so had some trial runs on how to do this,
Speaker 1: how to do it, but making it large scale was
Speaker 1: a challenge as well. Okay, so you're unloaded the dock
Speaker 1: and then you get the vaccine up seven flights of stairs, etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker 1: Do you just assume over the hours, the days and
Speaker 1: the weeks that all of us by definition are going
Speaker 1: to have to go to hospitals. We're not going to
Speaker 1: do this in the doctor's office. Well, um, we have
Speaker 1: basically set it up in hubs, so we have freezers
Speaker 1: stationed throughout our health system and then we are able
Speaker 1: to transport the vaccine safely um to our other site
Speaker 1: so it is given currently at our facilities. We have
Speaker 1: clinics and hospitals in which we have stationed hubs to
Speaker 1: basically give the vaccine um. The good news though, is
Speaker 1: the MADERNA does not require such as as precise cold
Speaker 1: storage criteria, So in Louisiana at least, they are talking
Speaker 1: about distributing the Maderna to places where might not have
Speaker 1: these cold storage capabilities or these freezers. So there is
Speaker 1: a plan in place. If that vaccine does get FDA
Speaker 1: approval later this week, then that would be an option
Speaker 1: for maybe those areas that don't have the deep freezers
Speaker 1: that we do. Dr. Baumgarten, the new is great. We're
Speaker 1: all so excited to think about the bridge to the
Speaker 1: other side and getting to the other side where we
Speaker 1: don't have to wear masks, etcetera. Just on a qualitative level,
Speaker 1: based on how it's being rolled out right now, based
Speaker 1: on the willingness of the people you work with and
Speaker 1: perhaps even your patients to get inoculated. What is your
Speaker 1: sense of how this is going and the speed of
Speaker 1: which we will reach some sort of critical mass immunization. Well,
Speaker 1: if if our institution is any indication of what's happening,
Speaker 1: it has been incredible. All of our health care workers
Speaker 1: are prioritized, especially those that are working with COVID patients
Speaker 1: on our COVID units we have dedicated COVID units here
Speaker 1: um and those that are working in the front line
Speaker 1: um such as in our emergency rooms and urgent cares,
Speaker 1: and everybody has really been so excited about this vaccine.
Speaker 1: It really gives us a sense of help. You know,
Speaker 1: twenty has been a little bit tough for us, and
Speaker 1: we've had a lot of stresses on our health care.
Speaker 1: We've done great, we've been prepared, we've taken care of patients,
Speaker 1: but we've also seen our colleagues ill. We've also seen
Speaker 1: our patients become ill and die, and so to have
Speaker 1: this hope, to have this science, to have this resource
Speaker 1: so quickly has been incredible and there's just a sense
Speaker 1: of relief around our institution from Monday. We started vaccinating
Speaker 1: on Monday, and you could just feel that sense of relief.
Speaker 1: The other good news was how great the vaccine is
Speaker 1: in terms of its efficacy, and so that was also
Speaker 1: a hopeful moment when we found out how the vaccine
Speaker 1: is nine set effective and it has minimal side effects
Speaker 1: really when we talk about vaccines, so we were just
Speaker 1: thrilled we cannot wait to get it out to the
Speaker 1: other healthcare providers and then the community. In terms of
Speaker 1: when that might happen, we're talking about the spring, the summer.
Speaker 1: We need people to take this vaccine. That's going to
Speaker 1: be the key here. If we're talking about we need
Speaker 1: to continue to wear masks at this point, but if
Speaker 1: we're talking about having a Christmas that may be a
Speaker 1: little more normal, that you may have a little bit
Speaker 1: larger the moralogy is at next year. It is critical
Speaker 1: that people get the vaccine, and that's what our focus
Speaker 1: is on at this point. Dr thank you and thank
Speaker 1: you for all the hard work being done in your
Speaker 1: industry right now. We're incredibly grateful all of us. Thank you,
Speaker 1: Dr Catherine bomp Goden. That on the latest with the
Speaker 1: vaccination effort. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom
Speaker 1: Keane Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio