WEBVTT - Bridgewater  Chief Investment Strategist Rebecca Patterson Talks Jobs Data

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<v Speaker 1>We are so honored. In short notice, she came into

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<v Speaker 1>a Rebecca Patterson is with us with all of our

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<v Speaker 1>work at Bridgewater over the years, and of course at

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<v Speaker 1>best in her trust as well. What does boring quiet

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<v Speaker 1>money do given the shock of a two hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty six thousands to woe is me, doom and gloom

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<v Speaker 1>America forget about it? What does quiet money do this year?

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<v Speaker 2>I think quiet money is already invested in equities, and

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<v Speaker 2>as long as the consumers holding in and they have

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<v Speaker 2>jobs and the confidence to spend in today's data says

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<v Speaker 2>they do, then I think you can stay in equities now.

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<v Speaker 2>Given valuations, the upside's going to be a little more

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<v Speaker 2>limited unless we keep getting positive surprises. The challenge, I

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<v Speaker 2>think is where do you go in the equity market?

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<v Speaker 2>Right small cap initially rallied on the Trump win, thinking deregulation,

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<v Speaker 2>lower rates, it's going to be great, and they've given

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<v Speaker 2>back all of those gains right after the election because

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<v Speaker 2>of rising yields. Small cap needs strong growth and lower yields,

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<v Speaker 2>and right now they're not getting enough of both.

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<v Speaker 1>Lisa, thanks for doing that report. Sweeney was occupied. I

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<v Speaker 1>saw him on the phone with his realtor. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>got a thirty year bond four point nine to ninety percent. Wow,

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<v Speaker 1>does that change the landscape?

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<v Speaker 3>It does, Tom, and you we got big movement on

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<v Speaker 3>the front end of the curve, the two years up

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<v Speaker 3>ten basis points four point three six percent. There. So, Rebecca,

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<v Speaker 3>how do you think the Fed is going to digest

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<v Speaker 3>this data that received today? Because wait, the labor market

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<v Speaker 3>looks pretty solid.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, I agree with Ellen who has just

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<v Speaker 2>done before me that January pause is baked, fully baked, gotcha,

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<v Speaker 2>And now the market is discounting that the first or

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<v Speaker 2>next i should say cut or the first cut this

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<v Speaker 2>year doesn't come till October. Who the heck knows? Right,

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<v Speaker 2>It's going to depend on all the policies that get

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<v Speaker 2>rolled out. If the economy slows, if something cracks with

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<v Speaker 2>the upper income consumer to hurt their confidence and cause

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<v Speaker 2>them to pull back spending, this picture can change. If

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<v Speaker 2>immigrants fall sharply, wage costs go up, that could. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>there's a lot of variables that could move us in

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<v Speaker 2>either direction. So to me, in October cut doesn't seem crazy.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm more interested right now and what's going on in

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<v Speaker 2>the long end. The tenure yield going up, pushing up

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<v Speaker 2>mortgage rates, which is hurting the housing market, but also

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<v Speaker 2>what's causing it, right, and we should talk about term.

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<v Speaker 1>Pre Well we're gonna do that right now. We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about term premium because doctor Patterson said, Tom, we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about term premit. Look, let me cut to the

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<v Speaker 1>chase you have been vetted. Is a FED governor, a president,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, somebody you know carrying coffee at the

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<v Speaker 1>Echos building. Whatever you've been vetted, Rebecca Patterson. This, this

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<v Speaker 1>live tweet says it all. The last cut was a mistake.

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<v Speaker 1>It killed the Santa rally. Fold the last cut into

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<v Speaker 1>your concern about rising yields.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's fascinating that as the Fed has cut a

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<v Speaker 2>hundred basis points, the tenure yield has gone up more

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<v Speaker 2>than one hundred basis points. It's highly, highly unusual. What

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<v Speaker 2>I'm worried about now is if the rise and yields

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<v Speaker 2>is not a reflection of growth. I think today's move

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<v Speaker 2>right now in the ten is stronger labor markets, so

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<v Speaker 2>a higher Fed funds rate and strong growth. That's not

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<v Speaker 2>a bad thing. But if the tenure is going up

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<v Speaker 2>because of uncertainty around policy, around FED independence, around inflation,

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<v Speaker 2>then you are going to see rising yields hurting stocks.

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<v Speaker 2>And we've seen that pattern over history. That's what I'm

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<v Speaker 2>worried about, not the level of the yield. What's causing

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<v Speaker 2>the rise in the yield.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, just to that point towardst the slock just in

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<v Speaker 3>a matter of minutes was out with a little note here.

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<v Speaker 3>Higher for longer continues to be the key theme in markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Higher for longer in the front end because of the

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<v Speaker 3>strong economy, higher for longer in the long end because

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<v Speaker 3>of a strong economy and fiscal worries, which goes to

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<v Speaker 3>your point. So I guess that kind of goes to

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<v Speaker 3>the question when are higher interest rates a real problem

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<v Speaker 3>for stocks?

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<v Speaker 2>Again? Psychologically maybe if we crack five percent, that could

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<v Speaker 2>do some damage in a short term basis, but I

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<v Speaker 2>think I think the bigger deal is going to be again,

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<v Speaker 2>what's causing it. I'm watching things like Economic Surprise Index.

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<v Speaker 2>If growth prizes are disappointing, that's bad for term premium,

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<v Speaker 2>i e. Term premium goes up in a bad way.

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<v Speaker 2>If inflation expectations we have data Monday, we have CPI

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<v Speaker 2>coming up. If those things are moving in the wrong

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<v Speaker 2>direction and also earnings. Look what these CEOs and CFOs

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<v Speaker 2>are saying, if they're highlighting fiscal worries, if they're highlighting rates,

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<v Speaker 2>that could get reflected pretty quickly in term premium also

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<v Speaker 2>pushing up you.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, that's right, we wanted to go. I'm gonna pick

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<v Speaker 1>on Brian moynihan. I could be James Diamond or Frankly

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<v Speaker 1>any other C class officer out there. They've got the

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<v Speaker 1>bright lights of inflation. I got a two hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty six thousand jobs report four point one percent. I'm sorry,

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<v Speaker 1>that's an anominal GDP locked in. Do we underestimate the

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<v Speaker 1>revenue growth that we're going to see. I'll a Delta Airlines, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>six percent up in business class because Rebecca's flying around

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<v Speaker 1>the country on Delta.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Delta's great. I mean, if you have to pick one,

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<v Speaker 2>that's that's the one that goes domestically.

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<v Speaker 1>That's my first seat's taken.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's true.

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<v Speaker 1>In France and the fistfights exactly, they're all talking in French.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know what they're saying.

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<v Speaker 3>So what are we doing here? I think with the

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<v Speaker 3>equity markets, one of the concerns is boy, we really

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<v Speaker 3>have to If we're not going to get a rate

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<v Speaker 3>cut until October, then boy, earnings really come front center

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<v Speaker 3>to support this market. Is that a risk issue for you?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because again there's a smaller and smaller chunk of

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<v Speaker 2>the consumer that's holding everything up. Right. The lower end consumer,

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<v Speaker 2>we know, is hurting. So you need the upper middle

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<v Speaker 2>class and the upper income consumer to continue spending. They

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<v Speaker 2>can they have the jobs, they have, the income, they

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<v Speaker 2>have wealth creation from housing inequities. Do they have the

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<v Speaker 2>confidence and willingness to keep spending? And that can change quickly.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, it looks good.

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<v Speaker 1>But with a nominal gd I mean, where would you

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<v Speaker 1>model out nominal GDP? I don't want you to do

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<v Speaker 1>it because I know you're not doing it, because you

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<v Speaker 1>know you're on in this wonderful garden leave. But if

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<v Speaker 1>you had an Excel spreadsheet in front of you, you've

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<v Speaker 1>got you've got to model four point eight percent, five

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<v Speaker 1>percent five percent plus nominal GDP.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Yeah, yeah, No, it's hard to get barish on

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<v Speaker 2>equities in that environment. Again, the question is given valuations,

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<v Speaker 2>where do you go and the other thing beyond just

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<v Speaker 2>the consumer and the job market, think about tech, right,

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<v Speaker 2>we know, forget about Navidia. The rest of the mag

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<v Speaker 2>seven this year next year are going to be spending

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<v Speaker 2>two hundred and fifty billion. Yeah, the Microsoft eighty billion

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<v Speaker 2>number less Friday exactly, and that's money that's going into

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<v Speaker 2>the economy, also supporting this big nominal GDP number.

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<v Speaker 1>One of your family members calls in time lose the

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<v Speaker 1>jobs report. Talk to her about the dollar. Oh, the dollar,

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<v Speaker 1>call for remilglam Patterson.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we have another strong dollar year. The thing

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<v Speaker 2>I'm focused on really is the Chinese Rememby. They intervened

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<v Speaker 2>today to try to slow the depreciation. They need to depreciate.

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<v Speaker 2>But if they depreciate in a Trump administration, he's going

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<v Speaker 2>to come right back at him. And so what do

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<v Speaker 2>they do. They have to They have to stimulate the consumer.

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<v Speaker 2>That is are only way out and so far President

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<v Speaker 2>she is not willing to give on that.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you model a vector of depreciation back to where

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<v Speaker 1>they were with weakness pre two thousand and five. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it was hoof. That's a big move.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a big movie trying to make some news.

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<v Speaker 1>Look.

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<v Speaker 2>In twenty eighteen, the rememby fell ten percent against the dollar,

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<v Speaker 2>during the trade war. Most economists and strategists I'm talking

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<v Speaker 2>to think that is very likely to happen again. So

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<v Speaker 2>here's your headline. The Chinese rememby if the PBOC, if

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<v Speaker 2>the central Bank lets it, is going to fall ten

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<v Speaker 2>percent or more this year. The question is will they

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<v Speaker 2>allow it? Are they are they going to avoid capital

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<v Speaker 2>flight worries and prevent it, or are they going to

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<v Speaker 2>do it because they need it for exports, they need

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<v Speaker 2>it for manufacturing.

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<v Speaker 3>Did to change your outloc at all? Just real quickly

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<v Speaker 3>with its new administration coming in.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to see which policies get pushed forward first

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<v Speaker 2>and the size that matters so much to me. So

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<v Speaker 2>I think we're all going to know a lot more,

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<v Speaker 2>probably by early February.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, are coming into the Rebeccan yours

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<v Speaker 1>and