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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. There growing in Joe, spectacular catch.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it's a catch touchdown.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I

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Speaker 2: like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, that is the ultimate Kabaki want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back to another

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Speaker 2: NFL episode of the Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Freeman,

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Speaker 2: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs. Chris Raybond is

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Speaker 2: still on vacation. He returns next episode, but on this

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Speaker 2: pod as always, Seawan Corner. Seawan is the Action Network

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Speaker 2: director of predictive Analytics and one of the top end

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Speaker 2: season fantasy football rankers for the past half decade. And

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Speaker 2: joining us is an old friend, someone who grinds harder

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Speaker 2: than almost anyone in the industry. I'm talking about Matt Harmon,

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Speaker 2: a football writer and analysts for Yahoo Sports and the

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Speaker 2: creator of Reception Perception. Matt, thanks for joining us. How's

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Speaker 2: it going? Oh, thank you guys so much for having me.

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Speaker 3: I'm really excited to talk today, you know, We're kind

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Speaker 3: of right at the beginning, you know, the precipice of

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Speaker 3: the season, where I like to say that the wave

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Speaker 3: hits us and then takes us underwater, and we pop

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Speaker 3: back up in January and it's all where the hell

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Speaker 3: did the last five months ago? But I'm really excited

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Speaker 3: for the season, and I'm pretty excited to talk to

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Speaker 3: you guys today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, great to have you on the show, and it

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Speaker 2: really is an exciting time. Although I'm gonna be honest,

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Speaker 2: I am not in peak form right now. I think

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Speaker 2: my god children got me sick, either them or the

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Speaker 2: duck egg that was part of my dinner last night.

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Speaker 2: So right now, either way, I'm not too hot on

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Speaker 2: children or ducks. But I am powering through the podcast.

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Speaker 2: You know, like Dirt Novitsky playing with the flu in

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Speaker 2: the NBA Finals. That is the level of professionalism I'm

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Speaker 2: bringing to this podcast, just in terms of health related overperformance. So,

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Speaker 2: mister Harmon, I'm glad that you could be here to

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Speaker 2: witness the true heroism that I will bring, but also

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Speaker 2: obviously glad you are here to talk about wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: We are on a stone cold heater, although I don't

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Speaker 2: know if a heater can be stone cold, but in

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Speaker 2: this instance it is, and it is because of the

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Speaker 2: awesome NFL guests that we've had recently. We had on

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Speaker 2: Jeff Ratcliffe and Evan Silva to talk about quarterbacks. Last

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Speaker 2: episode we had on JJ Zach Reeson to break down

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Speaker 2: tight ends. Be sure to check out those shows, maybe

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Speaker 2: rate and review them on Apple podcasts or wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts. And in this episode, we're going to

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Speaker 2: talk with Matt about how he approaches wide receivers and

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Speaker 2: Fantasy and also about reception perception, which is his scouting

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Speaker 2: methodology for past catchers. And then we're going to break

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Speaker 2: down the top twelve Fantasy wide receivers of twenty nineteen

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Speaker 2: by average draft position. Let's jump into it first. I

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Speaker 2: should just say we are recording it on Friday, July nineteenth,

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Speaker 2: and as we are recording it, news broke that Tyreek

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Speaker 2: Kill will not be facing a suspension. So, Matt, this

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Speaker 2: is a really big news item, one of the biggest

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Speaker 2: news items of the offseason. So, now that tyreek Kill

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Speaker 2: is seemingly going to be playing sixteen games this year,

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Speaker 2: where are you sliding him in in your rankings? What

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Speaker 2: is your outlook? For him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this is huge, and you know, if

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Speaker 3: I would be remiss to say that it doesn't feel weird,

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Speaker 3: Like I was pretty surprised that no suspension was was

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Speaker 3: going to be handed down. I was expecting, just over

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Speaker 3: the tone of the last few weeks, like yeah, that

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Speaker 3: it wasn't going to be as big as what we

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Speaker 3: thought originally, Like, you know, he wasn't going to get

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Speaker 3: cut by the Chiefs. He wasn't going to, you know,

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Speaker 3: be suspended for an entire season or something like that.

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Speaker 3: Like this wasn't going to be in Adrian Peterson, you

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Speaker 3: know whatever that year was, twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen. I

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Speaker 3: think it was twenty fourteen. Like it wasn't going to

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Speaker 3: be one of those type of situations where he just

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Speaker 3: vanished from the landscape for an entire season. But I

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Speaker 3: was expecting some sort of suspension. So to get it

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Speaker 3: to get it to be nothing is pretty stunning. You know,

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Speaker 3: looking through this list right now of wide receivers, I

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Speaker 3: think you take Tyreek Hill, you know, just around like

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Speaker 3: wide receiver five or six. I think I would take

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Speaker 3: him over Juju Smith, Schuster, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, t

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Speaker 3: Y Hilton, AJ Green, those type of names I have.

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Speaker 3: I think I slot Tyreek Hill clearly above him, and

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Speaker 3: I think Tyrerik Kill is so fascinating. And we'll talk

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Speaker 3: about reception perception a little bit later. But you know,

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Speaker 3: when you have something that you're known for, like reception perception,

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Speaker 3: you get credited for certain like discoveries or whatever. You know,

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Speaker 3: some of them I care more or less about. You know,

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Speaker 3: people always go back to Alan Robinson is like, oh,

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Speaker 3: that was a big hit for the series. You know,

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Speaker 3: Tyler Lockett finally broke through last year, but Tyrik Hill

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Speaker 3: was one that many you know, many years ago after

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Speaker 3: his rookie season, it was really commonplace to hear some

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Speaker 3: analysts say like, well, he's just a gadget player. You know,

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Speaker 3: he's not going to be He's like Corder or Patterson

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Speaker 3: two point zero, tam On Austin, whatever like. But I

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Speaker 3: think this is just shows the utility of reception perception

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Speaker 3: because he was a player in the series that even

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Speaker 3: in his twenty sixteen rookie season, he wasn't running a

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Speaker 3: ton of routes, but when he was running routes, he

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Speaker 3: was creating consistent separation, running some advanced routes you know,

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Speaker 3: again small sample, but at a really really proficient rate.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's over like eighty percent success rate against

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Speaker 3: press coverage, you know, throughout his entire career, and really

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Speaker 3: great separator, you know, across the field, not just on

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Speaker 3: deep routes. So I think just the fact that he

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Speaker 3: is it's always worth mentioning that he is truly not

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Speaker 3: just some speed for you. He is a superstar receiver

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Speaker 3: from a route running perspective. And you know, that's why

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Speaker 3: I would take him as high as I would in

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Speaker 3: fantasy now that we know he's going to be there

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Speaker 3: for all sixteen games, you know, seemingly.

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Speaker 2: Sean, we've updated our projections in rankings to take this

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Speaker 2: news into account, and I have him ranked number five.

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Speaker 2: You have Tyreek Kill ranked number seven. Can you talk

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Speaker 2: a little bit about what is going into your projection.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I've actually updated since then once a dust settle,

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Speaker 1: I went in, updated further and I actually have him

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Speaker 1: basically tied with Julio Jones at four or five right now.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I went in, well, the past couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: I've been moving him up anyway, So I was expecting,

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Speaker 1: you know, like a two to four game suspension, so

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Speaker 1: I had updated a lot of the periphery receivers since then,

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Speaker 1: but with the Tyreek Hill news, I moved him up

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Speaker 1: to four. I've basically tied with Julio and Juju that tier,

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Speaker 1: but then you know, I moved down Sammy Watkins. He's

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Speaker 1: closer to wide receiver thirty five for me. DeMarcus Robbins

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Speaker 1: and Mikael Hardman are no longer late round flyers in

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Speaker 1: my opinion. Travis Kelcey I bumped down a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but he's still, you know, by far my tight end one.

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Speaker 1: And then Patrick Mahomes I gave him just a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a boost, so you know, he's he's separating

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Speaker 1: a little bit further in his own QB one tier.

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Speaker 1: But you know, with the kind of news kind of

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Speaker 1: shaping up to be this way, I've been slowly updating

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Speaker 1: them the past couple of weeks. But yeah, it's a

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Speaker 1: big boost for the Chiefs offense as a whole.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, Tyreek Kill will be by the end of the

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Speaker 2: off season, he will be in the top twelve at

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Speaker 2: the position by ADP. Of course, he's not there yet,

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Speaker 2: so we're not going to talk about him anymore. On

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Speaker 2: the show, but obviously this is a podcast episode on

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Speaker 2: the top twelve players at the position, so we had

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Speaker 2: to mention him. Matt, you mentioned reception perception in What

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Speaker 2: It noted about Tyreek Hill after his rookie season. Can

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Speaker 2: you talk about reception perception, your route running charging methodology,

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Speaker 2: the factors you focus on, and how your process has

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Speaker 2: changed since you started.

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Speaker 3: Sure, so for those not familiar, reception perception, as Friedman mentioned,

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Speaker 3: is the methodology that I developed to kind of try

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Speaker 3: to evaluate route running and wide receiver play. I've been

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Speaker 3: doing this now for five NFL seasons, which is great,

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Speaker 3: by the way, because you mentioned what the process has changed.

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Speaker 3: I think the process hasn't necessarily changed, but the learnings

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Speaker 3: that the series has given me or what I've discovered

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Speaker 3: from it, that's really evolved over the last five years. Like,

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Speaker 3: for example, there are things that I would say based

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Speaker 3: on reception perception data, you know, two or three years ago,

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Speaker 3: that I would absolutely never say today. And that's just

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Speaker 3: we all know this. Working with data. The more you

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Speaker 3: have to work with, the smarter you become, the deeper

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Speaker 3: understanding you have of what you're looking at. And reception

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Speaker 3: perception obviously is something that I started five years ago,

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Speaker 3: and you know, if I was really, if I was

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Speaker 3: to truly approach this from like an academic standpoint, I

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Speaker 3: probably would have wanted to have five years worth of

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Speaker 3: out before ever like coming out with any opinions on it.

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Speaker 3: But of course that doesn't work for our audience because

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Speaker 3: you know, football fans don't care unless there's a take,

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Speaker 3: so obviously there has to be there has to be

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Speaker 3: something there, So I've been talking about it for all

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Speaker 3: these last five years. But anyways, but so reception perception,

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Speaker 3: I'm really trying to quantify the qualitative reality of route running.

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Speaker 3: So what I do is, over an eight game sample

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Speaker 3: for NFL players, I'll go and chart every single route

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Speaker 3: that they run in that eight game sample, I chart

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Speaker 3: what type of routes they're running the most, how often

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Speaker 3: they get open on each route, how often they're most

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Speaker 3: successful against man's zone press coverage. So really I'm trying

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Speaker 3: to evaluate who they are as a route runner and

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Speaker 3: then try to quantify what, like what type of receiver

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Speaker 3: they really are. So that's something that I think the

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Speaker 3: series has evolved more into, is really putting receivers into

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Speaker 3: a typological perspective. You know, because we know that the

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Speaker 3: roles of this position are so different from player to player,

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Speaker 3: and you know, it's been great to track certain guys

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Speaker 3: throughout their entire career and again just continuing to evolve

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Speaker 3: my thoughts on the position and what some of these

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Speaker 3: success rate means. You know, we could talk about a

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Speaker 3: player like DJ Moore we're not going to talk about

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Speaker 3: in this episode, but he has very poor success rate

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Speaker 3: versus man and press coverage metrics. But I no longer

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Speaker 3: think that that means he's going to be a bad

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Speaker 3: player because of the role that he's going to fit into.

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Speaker 3: So that's the type of thing, just quick example. And

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Speaker 3: actually there is a player we will talk about later

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Speaker 3: that I can kind of expand on this thought process with.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, so basically trying to quantify the qualitative realities

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Speaker 3: of route running at the NFL level.

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Speaker 2: All right, So for the wide receiver position, do you

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Speaker 2: have a set strategy that you tend to use in

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Speaker 2: your fantasy drafts? Do you like to hit the position early?

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Speaker 2: Do you like to go wide receivers maybe in the

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Speaker 2: middle rounds because you're so familiar with the position, or

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Speaker 2: do you just kind of let the draft come to

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Speaker 2: you yeah, it's a little bit of both.

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Speaker 3: I like to employ a lot of different strategies because

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Speaker 3: I'm doing so many different drafts, especially from the best

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Speaker 3: ball perspective, I'm hitting it hard, I'm hitting it heavy,

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Speaker 3: you know, so in the wide receiver position specifically, or

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Speaker 3: I do like to take players early, you know, especially

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Speaker 3: this year. It's a little bit of a back and

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Speaker 3: forth because if you get one of those top four

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Speaker 3: picks and you can land a stud running back, even

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Speaker 3: a top five pick because I kind of throw David

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Speaker 3: Johnson into this group as well, and you can land

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Speaker 3: one of those high end, elite workhorses that I think

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Speaker 3: we're all consensus opinion on, then you can come back

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Speaker 3: around on the two three turn and get a player

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Speaker 3: like in Aj Green or a Stefan Diggs and make

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Speaker 3: those your wide receiver one and two. That's a really

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Speaker 3: tempting proposition. But then, as you mentioned, I'm so familiar

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Speaker 3: with the position that there is some benefit to going

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Speaker 3: running back early and then not trying to mess around

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Speaker 3: with what I think is a really rough, rough group

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Speaker 3: of running backs in rounds five to eight.

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Speaker 2: This year.

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Speaker 3: I probably say that every year, but this year specifically

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Speaker 3: feels like every time I'm on the clock in rounds

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Speaker 3: five to eight, there's maybe two or three running backs

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Speaker 3: that I feel a high degree of confidence in, and

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Speaker 3: it's just tough to build a roster around those players.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's a little bit of a give

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Speaker 3: and take because I love having high end studs at

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Speaker 3: the position, and I think that really helps you build

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Speaker 3: a strong roster from a week to week perspective because

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Speaker 3: of the liable target volume. But I will sometimes default

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Speaker 3: to that familiarity with the position.

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Speaker 2: As you mentioned, Sean, it seems like Matt is speaking

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Speaker 2: your language, referencing that's what you've dubbed the frozen Pond

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Speaker 2: tier of running backs in the middle rounds. How are

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Speaker 2: you approaching wide receivers this year? Is it similar to

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Speaker 2: the way Matt is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know I slammed on the RB two

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Speaker 1: tier all of last year, but I actually like it

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Speaker 1: this year. And so, you know, wide receiver, I'm actually

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Speaker 1: really aggressive. I try to get at least two of

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Speaker 1: what I consider you know, the elite wide receiver one tier.

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Speaker 1: Probably it's probably eight or nine guys right now with

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Speaker 1: Tyra Hill now not suspended, So I'm really aggressive. I

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Speaker 1: try to get two of those top nine, just because

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Speaker 1: you know, when it comes to in season management, I'm

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Speaker 1: really good at stashing running backs, getting those waiver wire gems.

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Speaker 1: And then you know, at the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: I had some championship teams where I had Damian Williams, C.

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Speaker 1: J Anders and Gus Edwards. You know, I'm confidently starting

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Speaker 1: in the championship match. But you just don't get that receiver.

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Speaker 1: You can't really pick up a wide receiver one in season.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I like to just spend my highest

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Speaker 1: draft capital on wide receivers as possible. Matt mentioned, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you have the first four or five picks, you're

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Speaker 1: taking a stud running back, and then you can get

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Speaker 1: two of these like I call them, like premier wide

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Speaker 1: receiver two guys or at the end of the draft,

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Speaker 1: you know, picks I would even as soon as six

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Speaker 1: now with Melvin Gordon kind of questionable right now. You know,

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Speaker 1: picks six through twelve in a stand draft, you get

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Speaker 1: two of these elite wide receiver one. So I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: all about loading up at wide receiver early this year.

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Speaker 2: All right, Matt, who is the wide receiver that you've

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Speaker 2: gotten the most of in drafts so far, and then

275
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Speaker 2: who's the wide receiver that you are really looking to

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Speaker 2: stay away from.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a couple answers for who I've been getting

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Speaker 3: the most of, But I think the one that I

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Speaker 3: keep defaulting to, and I mentioned him earlier in the episode,

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Speaker 3: is Alan Robinson. I'm a big, big fan of his.

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Speaker 3: I have been for a long time. And you know,

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Speaker 3: last year, we know this was his first year with

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Speaker 3: the Bears. We know that sometimes receivers can produce a

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Speaker 3: little slower in their first year with new teams. But

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Speaker 3: I thought from a route running perspective, this was his

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Speaker 3: best year since that twenty fifteen season. You know, twenty

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Speaker 3: sixteen was admittedly and he would say this himself was

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Speaker 3: a slower season for him as an individual. It wasn't

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Speaker 3: just Blake Bortles, but you know, he was back up

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Speaker 3: towards that seventy eighth percentile in reception perception and success

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Speaker 3: rate first man coverage. And that was even with him

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Speaker 3: clearly playing not one hundred percent. We saw in the

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Speaker 3: playoffs him get back out there and play at a

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Speaker 3: really high level against the Eagles in that loss. But

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Speaker 3: I think that's what we're going to see more of

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Speaker 3: Alan Robinson going from this year, and then when I

297
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Speaker 3: look at where he goes off the board in drafts,

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Speaker 3: he's the most to me, the most established, high end

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Speaker 3: potential number one wide receiver of that group. You know,

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Speaker 3: he was going around. I mean, by the way we're

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Speaker 3: talking about Tyreek Hill earlier, you know, rip to everybody

302
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Speaker 3: who was drafting Sammy Watkins as like he was going

303
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Speaker 3: to get some full time wide receiver one dudecause I

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Speaker 3: don't even think he's a good enough player at this

305
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Speaker 3: point to warrant that. But I think Robinson kind of

306
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Speaker 3: going off the same range in drafts as as Sammy Watkins.

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Speaker 3: I think Robinson can still be that player. So for me,

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Speaker 3: he's one I've been absolutely locking in where he was going.

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Speaker 3: And you know, Watkins I mentioned him earlier. He was

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Speaker 3: definitely an avoid for me. But also there's a I

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Speaker 3: don't and this is not about the player that I've

312
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Speaker 3: been avoiding this guy, but I have not been drafting

313
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Speaker 3: Kenny Galladay really where he goes. I like the target

314
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Speaker 3: volume potential, I just really hate the offense and they're

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Speaker 3: just you know, sometimes I think this is what's so

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Speaker 3: great about best Ball is that like it makes you

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Speaker 3: put your feet to the fire of Like, Yeah, theoretically,

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Speaker 3: I like the outlook of Kenny Galladay. I really like

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Speaker 3: the player that Kenny Galladay has become. But there's just

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Speaker 3: always someone else in his range that I'm rather I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna rather click on their name than his name at

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Speaker 3: that either the running back position or the wide receiver position. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: interesting there, and I definitely get the perspective that you're

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Speaker 3: saying that in theory you could like a player but

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Speaker 3: still like a player in that draft range more and

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Speaker 3: just not end up with any of the first guy.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about these top twelve wide receivers. Let's start

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Speaker 3: with DeAndre how Hopkins, who, by most ADP measures is

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Speaker 3: the first wide receiver off the board, usually going in

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Speaker 3: the middle of the first round. There are some questions

331
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Speaker 3: not in terms of his ability, but just in terms

332
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Speaker 3: of the impact that Will Fuller and Kiki qt will have.

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Speaker 3: How many games those guys will play in the target

334
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Speaker 3: share that they might potentially take away from DeAndre Hopkins.

335
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Speaker 3: But still a guy locked in who seems to be

336
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Speaker 3: a yearly producer in a very high end way. What

337
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,160
Speaker 3: are your thoughts on Hopkins? Yeah, I was happy to

338
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Speaker 3: see on the outline that you mentioned this question about

339
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Speaker 3: Keiki Qut and Will Fuller, because I think this is

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Speaker 3: actually a conversation worth having, and I don't feel like

341
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Speaker 3: I've heard many people talking about it. I know Liz

342
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Speaker 3: Low's and I on our Yaga Fantasy Football podcast talked

343
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Speaker 3: about it a couple a couple of weeks ago, and

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Speaker 3: you know, ever since, I've been kind of thinking more

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Speaker 3: and more about it, because look, Number one, DeAndre Hopkins

346
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Speaker 3: is a stud. He's an alpha receiver. Actually, last year

347
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Speaker 3: in reception perception was his best season. He finished at

348
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Speaker 3: the eighties second percentileent success rate first man coverage. It's

349
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Speaker 3: the highest marked he's reached over the last three seasons,

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Speaker 3: and which is wild because you know, separation is not

351
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Speaker 3: even the strength of his game. I think anybody that

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Speaker 3: casually watches him knows like the way he works the

353
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Speaker 3: boundary of the way he works the ball in tight

354
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Speaker 3: space is that that's kind of the peak point of

355
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Speaker 3: his game. So to see him only continue to get

356
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Speaker 3: better as a separator is just great. I mean, yeah,

357
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Speaker 3: he's a total alpha, but Will Fuller and Kiki Quty

358
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:29,000
Speaker 3: fits such specific roles and such valuable roles respectively they

359
00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 3: are with QT. He's that kind of slot receiver that's

360
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,560
Speaker 3: a speed guy, and I think that he can only

361
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 3: continue to grow as he gets healthy.

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Speaker 2: The way they were able to work.

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Speaker 3: Him against his own coverage consistently last year when he

364
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 3: was playing from a reception perception standpoint, the way he

365
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 3: was used was really similar to Cooper Cup in LA,

366
00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 3: you know, the way they just get those layup perceptions.

367
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Speaker 3: If that continues into this year, I think that only

368
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,720
Speaker 3: becomes a more valuable role for an offense that does

369
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Speaker 3: ask Deshaun Watson to make a rather high amount of

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00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 3: high degree of difficulty throws because of will Fuller's presence.

371
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Speaker 3: Of course, there's a lot of that, you know, and

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00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 3: he's just so good as that vertical receiver. And I

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Speaker 3: thought he was even better last year getting off press covers,

374
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Speaker 3: and I've than I've seen the last few years. So

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Speaker 3: I do think it's a conversation worth having if Hopkins,

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Speaker 3: you know, sees a slightly smaller share of the targets

377
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Speaker 3: this year, and that's why when you're kind of breaking

378
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Speaker 3: ties at the top of the receiver group, I actually

379
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Speaker 3: tend to like the number two receiver that we're going

380
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Speaker 3: to talk about here as my top receiver this year.

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Speaker 2: Sean, you, Ravon, and I all have Hopkins ranked in

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Speaker 2: the top three. I think it would be reasonable for

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Speaker 2: anyone to just kind of, in a default way, take

384
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Speaker 2: Hopkins as the number one receiver. But what is it

385
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 2: that you were seeing in the projections you're creating form?

386
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Speaker 1: Well, right now I have DeVante number one. I basically

387
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,919
Speaker 1: have them tied, but I agree with Matt. I think

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Speaker 1: the tiebreaker for me it goes to Adams. We talked

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Speaker 1: about Qt and Fuller. You know they're going to impact

390
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 1: his target share a bit, and we have you have

391
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,720
Speaker 1: a sample size of weeks four through seven last yer.

392
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 1: All three were active, and those happen to be two

393
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 1: of Hopkins' best receiving yard games and two of his lowest.

394
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Speaker 1: I think they just kind of widen his range of

395
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Speaker 1: outcomes because there's gonna be some times where they cut

396
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 1: into his target share, and there's gonna be times where

397
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,639
Speaker 1: you know, they allow him to not be double teamed

398
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 1: and get open. So I think, you know, ultimately he's

399
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 1: gonna arrive at the same place, probably top two by

400
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,159
Speaker 1: the end of the year. But it's just going to

401
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 1: widen his range of outcomes a bit. So I do

402
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,919
Speaker 1: like Adams in the sense that he does provide more

403
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 1: of a higher week week floor. And just the fact

404
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 1: that Rogers was banged up last year only through for

405
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 1: twenty five touchdowns. I'm looking for him to improve a

406
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 1: bit this year, and you know, just Adams by default

407
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 1: is gonna benefit from that. So so right now, even

408
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 1: though I have them tied, giving the benefit of the

409
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,120
Speaker 1: doubt to Adams, but they're they're definitely in their own

410
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 1: little mini wide receiver one tier at the top. I

411
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,399
Speaker 1: wouldn't really consider anybody else to be taken first overall

412
00:18:58,400 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: at the positions.

413
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 2: Talk about Adams, Matt, you mentioned him as someone you

414
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 2: probably prefer to DeAndre Hopkins, and it's hard to deny

415
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 2: just how outstanding Adams has been recently, especially last year.

416
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 2: What do you make of his his progression, because I

417
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 2: think it's it's relatively rare for a guy to improve

418
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 2: the way that he has improved in the NFL consistently.

419
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 2: Yours one and two, he was a near bust. Years

420
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 2: three and four, he was a touchdown, touchdown dependent kind

421
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 2: of surprise producer, and then last year he was arguably

422
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 2: the best wide receiver in the league. What do you

423
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,679
Speaker 2: make of his progression? But then also, what do you

424
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 2: think we're going to see out of this offense with

425
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,160
Speaker 2: new head coach Matt Lafore And what do you think

426
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,200
Speaker 2: we're going to see with Aaron Rodgers. Seemingly people think

427
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 2: that he is starting to decline enter the kind of

428
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 2: latter years of his career and maybe that will impact

429
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 2: Adams just general thoughts on him.

430
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love to talk about DeVante Adams because I

431
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 3: think reception perception can help quantify exactly what you're saying.

432
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 3: And also it's so rare, you know, like you said,

433
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 3: this is a rare progression. Because as I've been doing

434
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 3: this for five years, what I've noticed is that these

435
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 3: career success rates, especially for guys that like from that

436
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 3: twenty fourteen rookie class that I've tracked their entire careers,

437
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 3: you know, over the course of the last five seasons,

438
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 3: these numbers are pretty stable in terms of success rate

439
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 3: verse man press, those numbers are very very They tend

440
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 3: to hold pretty pretty well year over year with some

441
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 3: minor fluctuation. But you never see anybody do something like

442
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,479
Speaker 3: DeVante Adams has done so in his twenty fourteen season,

443
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 3: Adam's success rate versus man coverage fell at the third percentile.

444
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 3: Success rate versone coverage first percentile, success rate verse press

445
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,399
Speaker 3: eleventh percentile, so literally at the just about the bottom

446
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 3: there in most of those metrics. But then this past season,

447
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, twenty eighteen success rate verse man ninety

448
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,360
Speaker 3: ninth percentile, one of the top three scores ever collected

449
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: success rate versone fourth percentile, success rate versus press ninety

450
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 3: second percentile. So literally from the bottom all the way

451
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 3: to the top has Devonte Adams gone in terms of

452
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: route running, precision, getting open, creating separation, and just straight

453
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 3: up being a good receiver because he was one of

454
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 3: those players that got a boost in fantasy stock, you know,

455
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 3: when Jordy Nelson went down with the torn ACL in

456
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 3: his second season, But he just wasn't ready to be

457
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 3: that player. But now he has become that player, and

458
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 3: as I mentioned, that is so so rare to see

459
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 3: from any receiver, and I can't think of anyone else

460
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 3: that even comes close from a reception perception standpoint to

461
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 3: doing what DeVonta Adams has done.

462
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: So I would like to lot.

463
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 3: As much praise on the player as I possibly can

464
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 3: for that, because that's just stunning to see in these

465
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 3: metrics that I've been collecting and coming into this year.

466
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 3: The reason that I like him more than DeAndre Hopkins

467
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 3: is while we're talking about you know, Will Fuller and

468
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 3: Kiki Cuty as guys that have resumes and I think

469
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 3: are clearly fitting into into specific roles and I think

470
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 3: we'll dig into the target shair there. Adams doesn't have that,

471
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,640
Speaker 3: because I think you can like player like Marquez Valdez Scantling,

472
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 3: but beyond that, I mean, and even with him, there's

473
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 3: nothing established here. You know, Jimmy Graham is kind of

474
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 3: toast at this point. I mean, Ryan Rodgers even said

475
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:11,959
Speaker 3: it himself, like I'd like to throw to Devontae Adams more.

476
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 3: And I know that's just you know, player speaking, but

477
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,159
Speaker 3: like I believe it because he's that good of a

478
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 3: player compared to what else is on the roster. And

479
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 3: I kind of like the idea of you know, Matt

480
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 3: Laflour installing this offense for Aaron Rodgers in kind of

481
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 3: the closing years of his career, because I think that

482
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 3: at its best, I think it's tough to judge Lafleur

483
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 3: on what happened in Tennessee last year, because I think

484
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: the quarterback position is just so broken there that I

485
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 3: do think that creating more layup throws for Rogers and

486
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 3: if he buys in, I think the system could be

487
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 3: really good for everybody involved.

488
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 2: And just just a real.

489
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 1: Quick thing to point out. With just Hopkins and Adams

490
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 1: in general, one of the things that makes them just

491
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: fancy gods in my mind is what they did back

492
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: in twenty seventeen when Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers both

493
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: messed over half the season. They both maintained wide receiver

494
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: one numbers with you know, Hopkins had TJ. Yates and

495
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: Tom Savage throw it to him and AM's head Brett Humley.

496
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: So being able to be QB proof like that makes

497
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 1: them just you know locks for me. And we could

498
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 1: talk about him later, but Antonio Brown has not been

499
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 1: one of those guys who has kind of needed a

500
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 1: good quarterback throwing the ball.

501
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 2: That was a very nice tease of something we're gonna

502
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 2: talk about later, Sean. I mean, I think whether you

503
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 2: go with Adams or with Hopkins, you're basically grabbing a guy,

504
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, who is very likely to be quarterback

505
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: proof to have a high floor. One thing that does

506
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 2: give me a little bit of pause with Adams is

507
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: that even though he doesn't have a receiver of the

508
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: caliber Will Fuller or probably even Kiki Qt playing with him,

509
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: he still is in this unknown situation of Matt Lafleur.

510
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 2: And it's possible that Lafleur could be great for this offense.

511
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 2: But it's also possible that Lafloor could be really bad

512
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: and this offense could suffer in a way that people

513
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 2: don't anticipate. Whereas with DeAndre Hopkins, we have a pretty

514
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,479
Speaker 2: solid idea of what that offense is going to look like.

515
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 2: What do you think we're going to see with Matt

516
00:23:58,520 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 2: Lafleur as the new head coach?

517
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair to kind of have a

518
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: little bit of uncertainty. He really hasn't proven himself to

519
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: be the guru that you know, coming up under McVeigh

520
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: and Shanahan that you know we might see out of him.

521
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, Matt mentioned, you know, he had his hands

522
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 1: behind his back of Tennessee last year. There's only so

523
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: much he could do, So I'm not too concerned when

524
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: it comes to Adams with him or even Rogers. I'm

525
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 1: kind of looking at, you know, how he views sort

526
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: of you know, drawn him Allison or or Kazdalda's scanting.

527
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 1: I'm kind of monitoring how he's shaping up this offense

528
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 1: and who might benefit from that. So I'm waiting for

529
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 1: training camp and you know, preseason to kind of evaluate

530
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: where I want to invest in the prefer you guys.

531
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 1: But you know, if he doesn't get Adams the ball,

532
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: he'll be fired by week three. So I'm not too

533
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: worried about when it comes to Adams with before, even

534
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: though you know there is some downside that you know,

535
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: he could be a bit overrated, and I think it's

536
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 1: a little bit premature giving him a head coaching at

537
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: this point. But with with Rogers and Adams, I'm not

538
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: letting it impact my decisions yet anyway.

539
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 2: All Right. One of the next guys off on board

540
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 2: is Michael Thomas, often drafted in rounds one or two.

541
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 2: I mean, he was all time efficient last year, and

542
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 2: just in terms of a guy producing in years one

543
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: through three, I don't know if we've ever seen anyone

544
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 2: like outside of Randy Moss, who's just been that immediately

545
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 2: impactful in the league, But of course he is playing

546
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 2: in something of a run heavy offense relative to what

547
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 2: we saw out of New Orleans in previous seasons. Matt,

548
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: what do you think we're going to see out of

549
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: Thomas this year?

550
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, Thomas is almost still kind of underrated in terms

551
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 3: of like the pantheon of current NFL wide receivers, because

552
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 3: I think there's still some like internet goofballs out there

553
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 3: who think that like he's just a product of Drew

554
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 3: Brees because they don't watch the games. But Thomas to

555
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 3: me is still like he's one of the best receivers

556
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 3: in the league, clearly, And you could actually argue that

557
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 3: his twenty eighteen season in reception perception was the best

558
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: that I've ever tracked. He finished number one all time

559
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: in successful first man coverage, shattering Odell Beckham's previously held

560
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 3: record in there with an eighty two point two percent

561
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 3: success rate verse man coverage. He was at the ninety

562
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 3: eighth percentile in success rate verse zone, ninety seven percentile

563
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 3: versus press intact on an eighty two point six percent

564
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 3: contested catch rate. And this is all while playing as

565
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 3: much X receiver you know, the outside alpha position as

566
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: anyone else so I think he's a great player, and

567
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, it's worth talking about the fact that

568
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 3: this offense is kind of transitioning a little bit as

569
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 3: Drew Brees ages the thing that I still like about

570
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 3: Thomas's outlook, even if the offense does become more run heavy,

571
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 3: which I think it will, there's just really not much

572
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 3: else going on in New Orleans in the pass catcher department,

573
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 3: you know, there's.

574
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: Just no one else.

575
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 3: I mean, tray Quon Smith I like as a potential sleeper.

576
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 3: Ted Guinn is still there, but really he and Kamara

577
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: are the only two established players in the past catching corps,

578
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: and that to me leads me back to really still

579
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 3: liking Thomas as an elite wide receiver one.

580
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: All right, so Thomas is a high floor player, but

581
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: I do have questions about his ceiling. So in projections

582
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 2: that we have an Action network, Sean, you have him

583
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 2: ranked number eight, Raymond has him right there. I have

584
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: him ranked number nine. I'm wondering if there's kind of

585
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 2: this question of maybe what the consensus opinion on him

586
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 2: is and the idea of his upside versus maybe the

587
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: reality that he might not get the targets that tend

588
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 2: to sustain high end success.

589
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 1: You know, I have him eighth, but you know, this

590
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: whole entire tier. If I went to the draft and

591
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: you said i' might just randomly pick to these wide

592
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: receiver serier team, I would take it. And if Thomas

593
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: happens to be that guy, I'd be fine with it.

594
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: But just when it comes to this group, I mean,

595
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: he seems to have the profile of a high floor player,

596
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 1: but he really wasn't last year. There's just some games

597
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: where the defense is really good, so they just you know,

598
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 1: ground and pound run the ball. There was seven games

599
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: Drew Brees through for under two hundred and twenty yards,

600
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 1: so you know, the bottom just really falls out of

601
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 1: the passing game. So we saw five games last year

602
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: where Mike Thomas failed to or at least five standard

603
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 1: fancy points. So he was almost like a high ceiling,

604
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: low floor type of player for an elite wide receiver one.

605
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: I do not like that for my wide receiver one.

606
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: I like stability, high floor guys. So that's that's why

607
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: I have him a little bit farther down my rankings.

608
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: But like you said, his efficiency last years insane. He

609
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: had the eighty five percent catch rate, so I have

610
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: it regressing down closer to seventy, so his receptions fall

611
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: quite a bit from I have met one hundred and

612
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: four right now, and you know, last year the receivers

613
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 1: were just awful behind him. So we have you know,

614
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: Jared Cook entering the mix, Ted gen should be healthy,

615
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: and then tray Quan Smith should only grow in his

616
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: second year, so I think that that'll cut into his

617
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: targets a bit. So with him, you kind of do

618
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 1: rely on that volume. That's why I'm kind of I

619
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: have him at the bottom of this elite wide receiver

620
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 1: one tier, but I still like him a lot.

621
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about Julio another wide receiver, and

622
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: I think what was actually a pretty stacked NFC South

623
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 2: Matt Julio is maybe one of my favorite receivers of

624
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 2: all time, just he's been an absolute yardage accumulator ever

625
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 2: since he entered the league. Of course, he's now thirty

626
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: years old. Do you have any concerns about his age

627
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 2: and then also potentially losing targets due to the development

628
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: of Calvin Ridley in his second season.

629
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 3: I don't really have any worries about Julio Jones, and

630
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 3: I agree, I think I would take. I think i'd

631
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 3: have him as wide receiver three right now, behind Adams

632
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: and Hopkins, and I don't really have any concerns about

633
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 3: Jones as an individual player. I haven't seen anything in

634
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 3: reception perception the last few years to think that that

635
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: would be the case in twenty eight, and he actually

636
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 3: set a personal best in success rate versus man coverage,

637
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 3: so I think still playing at a pristine elite level.

638
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 3: And I like Calvin Ridley a lot, so I don't

639
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 3: know that I think he's going to dig into the target.

640
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 3: I think he really should kind of make Mohammed Sanu

641
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 3: more irrelevant in that past catching group, which that may

642
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 3: or may not happen, but I think it would be

643
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 3: like coaching malpractice on the part of Dirk Cutter and

644
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 3: the Falcons if they don't make Ridley the clear number

645
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 3: two receiver, because I think I think Ridley's so good

646
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 3: right now that I think that they already form like

647
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 3: a potential top five receiver duo in the league. Ridley

648
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 3: proved to be a pristine separator as a rookie, which

649
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 3: I think would have was not surprising to anyone that

650
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 3: scouted him in college. That was his clear strength. He

651
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 3: finished at the ninety third percent time success rate first

652
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 3: man coverage and also finished with an excellent seventy eight

653
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 3: percent success rate against press, So he really showed that

654
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 3: he could play a lot of different roles. Being the

655
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 3: number two aside from Julio Jones makes his life a

656
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 3: little easier. But I think these two are really good tandem,

657
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 3: and I agree to your point. Man, Like the NFC

658
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 3: South is stacked right now with not just top end

659
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 3: wide receivers and Jones and Thomas and Mike Evans, but

660
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 3: we have potential breakout guys in Calvert Ridley and Chris

661
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 3: Godwin and then the Panthers duo. I love both of

662
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 3: those players going forward. So like the NFC South right now,

663
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 3: if you like wide receiver play, you have to like

664
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 3: this division.

665
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: It's really exciting. Sean, what do you think of Julio.

666
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: I think he's the guy I have the most projected

667
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: receiving yards for. I've given up trying to project him

668
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: for more than eight touchdowns. I think it's pretty clear

669
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: he's gonna be right around his seven percent touchdown rate.

670
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: Although you know, Dirt Cutter, the last or the only

671
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 1: time he's scored double digit touchdowns was I think twenty

672
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: twelve when Dirt Cutter is the offensive coordinator, so maybe

673
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: he can unlock that and you know, involve a more

674
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: in the red zone. But you know, I'm just penciling

675
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: Hulo Jones for you know, a ton of yards and

676
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: seven to eight touchdowns, so I think it kind of

677
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: caps the ceiling in that regard. But I'm not too

678
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: worried about his age yet. I think he should be fine.

679
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 1: And you know, I think having guys like Ridley and

680
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 1: you know, I talked about him in the tight Ends pod,

681
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: but I think Austin Hooper could have a big year.

682
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 1: So I think, you know, those guys prevent defenses from

683
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: you know, loading up on Hulo. So I think we'll

684
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: see another big season from him. Like I said, I

685
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: would rather have him third than a guy like Michael Thomas.

686
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about Odell Beckham Junior. He's maybe

687
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 2: the wide receiver I am most excited about this year

688
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: who's in a new position. But of course there might

689
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: be some concerns about his health. He's transitioning to a

690
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 2: new team, a new quarterback, a new environment. Matt, what

691
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: do you think we're going to see out of him. Yeah,

692
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 2: I'm so excited. I'm with you.

693
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 3: I tweeted right like days before this trade happened that

694
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 3: if we did not get Odell Beckham's prime of his career,

695
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 3: you know, send like intersect with that of ascending young quarterback,

696
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 3: it would be a form of football injustice.

697
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 2: And for once in my life, something works. Say it

698
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 2: worked out.

699
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 3: You know, you say something, you wish for something to happen,

700
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 3: and it happens. He goes to Cleveland. It's a perfect spot.

701
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 3: Beckham is I think one of the three best route

702
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 3: runners in the NFL. I think it's Stefan Diggs, Antonio

703
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 3: Brown and Odell Beckham are the top three.

704
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: And you can mix those three up.

705
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 3: I don't really care put them in or you want,

706
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 3: but I feel really confident in that top three. Beckham

707
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 3: posted a seventy nine point eight percent success rate versus

708
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 3: man coverage in twenty eighteen. That's a top five score

709
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 3: all time. He's never finished below the ninety eighth centile

710
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 3: in success rate versus press coverage. So he is an

711
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: elite player all the way around. Probably gets off the

712
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 3: line of scrimmage better than anyone in the NFL. And

713
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 3: now he's going to actually play with a quarterback who

714
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 3: isn't rapidly declining before our eyes. So I mean, I

715
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 3: expect great things. It's really temp I mean, honestly, I

716
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 3: know it's the it's a giant leap, but it's it's

717
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 3: really tempting to not put Beckham, you know, right up

718
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 3: there with Adams or Hopkins as the number one wide

719
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 3: receiver just because of on paper how great this looks

720
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: for him and how great of a player we already

721
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 3: know that he is. I actually think that I think

722
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 3: I'd probably conservatively would have him as wide receiver for

723
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: right now behind Adams, Hopkins, Jones, and then Beckham would

724
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 3: slot right in there. So I think that, like he's

725
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 3: around that range four or five. But it's really tempting

726
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 3: to not put him at the top because of just

727
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 3: how exciting this situation is.

728
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 2: Sean, you, rayvaugh and I all have OBJ ranked in

729
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: the top three. How do you think this is going

730
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 2: to shake out? Just in terms of the role he's

731
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 2: going to play in the offense coordinated or overseen by

732
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 2: Freddy Kitchens and Todd Monkin. You know, I think it's.

733
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: Gonna work well. And you know they've already said that,

734
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 1: you know, he missed a lot by missing OTAs. I

735
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 1: think it's critical for him to start building chemistry, so

736
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: he might not peek until later in the year. But

737
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 1: you know, we saw Baker Mayfield. He doesn't. He likes

738
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: to spread it around, so he could help some of

739
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 1: the receivers. We've talked about it, you know, with Callaway

740
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 1: and Joeku specifically, but I'm not so certain he's gonna

741
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 1: be a target monster, but he's gonna be incredibly efficient.

742
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: The offense should get plenty of red zone opportunities, so

743
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: he's a guy that I could see, you know, leading

744
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 1: the league in touchdowns. That's why I have him three.

745
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 1: I think he just brings the most upside outside of

746
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 1: Adams and Hopkins, so I'd be willing to take him

747
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: over Julio Juju or Michael Thomas. But yeah, the upside

748
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 1: of the offense is insane, and you know, we we

749
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: could talk about it. But he's had some troubled injury history,

750
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: so I do have him missing just a little bit

751
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: more games play than these other guys, and he still

752
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 1: came up as three. I think it's worth just investing

753
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: in the upside to kind of sacrifice what he appears

754
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: to be sort of an injury risk.

755
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: All right, John, you mentioned that you would take Obj

756
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: ahead of Juju Smith Schuster, who is going off the

757
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 2: board in round two pretty consistently. Matt, I am bold

758
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 2: enough to have Juju ranked number one. I know I'm

759
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 2: being aggressive on this, and I know I don't need

760
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 2: to take him number one in order to abide that

761
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: he has as the potential number one wide receiver, but

762
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,800
Speaker 2: it's a big opportunity that he has to play without

763
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: Antonio Brown there. Of course, it could also be a challenge.

764
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 2: He's going to be the known number one wide receiver

765
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,240
Speaker 2: on that team. He's going to get more defensive attention.

766
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 2: Is he going to continue to play primarily in the slot?

767
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 2: Can he still be a strong number one if he

768
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 2: plays only in the slot. What are your thoughts for

769
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 2: going to see out of him?

770
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is really a conversation worth having

771
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 3: an unpacking because I think the natural assumption is, yeah,

772
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 3: one player leaves, another player gets the volume boost, and

773
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 3: I think that's probably the way this works out. And

774
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 3: I'm still pretty bullish on Juju from a fantasy perspective,

775
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 3: but I do think the impact of not having Antonio Brown.

776
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 3: There is huge because these two players might as well

777
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 3: have been playing different positions last year. I mean, that's

778
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:24,320
Speaker 3: how strong How's this how strongly I feel about receiver

779
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 3: alignment and the way it impacts how you perform, Like

780
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 3: I almost just don't care at all from a raw

781
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 3: stats perspective comparing Juju to Antonio Brown because of just

782
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: how different their roles are. Like Brown last year in

783
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 3: reception perception spent seventy six percent of his snaps outside

784
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 3: and seventy six percent of his snaps on the line.

785
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 3: You know, he's playing X receiver, He's playing against top cornerbacks,

786
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 3: he's playing press coverage. You know, he faced press coverage

787
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 3: on forty seven point five percent of the routes I charted,

788
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 3: saw a man coverage on seventy point three percent of

789
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 3: the routes I charted for him. Now, Juju, on the

790
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 3: other hand, he's got fifty five point six percent of

791
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,919
Speaker 3: his snaps in the slot, fifty nine point seven off

792
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 3: the line of scrimmage. You know, he's able to get

793
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 3: that free release, he's able to move around, so that

794
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 3: causes him to see press coverage on twenty eight point

795
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 3: three percent of his routes and man coverage on fifty

796
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 3: five point one percent of his routes. You know, those

797
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 3: are drastically different numbers because, as you'd expect, if you're

798
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 3: seeing more zone coverage, your success rates are naturally higher,

799
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 3: and I think Juju crushes it in the role that

800
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 3: he's in. I think it's a little bit more difficult

801
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 3: if you're playing that role without an outside alpha receiver.

802
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 3: But I'm not worried from a production standpoint, like overall

803
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 3: counting stats, I think Juju will still be there at

804
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 3: the end of the year. I would have him as

805
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 3: a top ten receiver, no question. But I think the

806
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 3: overall efficiency of the Steelers offense, I think that's what

807
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 3: takes what will take a hit without Antonio Brown there,

808
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,240
Speaker 3: even if from you know, a yard's per targer perspective

809
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 3: or catch right perspective, Antonio Brown wasn't up there last year.

810
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 3: I think just having that presence, he's one of the

811
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:50,800
Speaker 3: true coverage dictators in the NFL.

812
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: Maybe Juju steps up, and he's so.

813
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 3: Young, he's so good that I think that he could

814
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 3: step up and become that player. But it's a it

815
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 3: is a huge projection to think that he's going to

816
00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:01,919
Speaker 3: be come that player based on just what we've seen

817
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 3: from how he operates on the field over the first

818
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 3: two years of his career.

819
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 2: Yes, it is a huge projection. I take that as

820
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 2: a compliment, Thank you. What I should say is that

821
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: and I agree with the points that you've made, and

822
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 2: he does play a very different type of position than

823
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 2: Antonio Brown played. I think even if we see some

824
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 2: regression out of the Steelers offense, and I think it's

825
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 2: fair to assume that it will regress a little bit,

826
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 2: we are still likely to see Juju get a similar

827
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: number of targets to what he had last year, potentially

828
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 2: even more because some of those Antonio Brown targets have

829
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 2: to go somewhere. And even if we see him regress

830
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 2: in his efficiency when it comes to turning targets into

831
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 2: receptions and into yards, he's still going to see so

832
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: many more red zone targets than he saw last year.

833
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 2: That for me, that is really where the big boost

834
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:55,360
Speaker 2: comes in. Is those fifteen touchdowns that Antonio Brown got Somewhere.

835
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 2: Some of those vanish into thin air because he's not there,

836
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 2: but some of those get reallocated to players I think

837
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 2: is going to get a lot of those, So for me,

838
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 2: that is really where the enthusiasm comes in. Sean, what

839
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 2: are your thoughts here?

840
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, first off, I have to pledge you again for

841
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 1: being bold enough to rank him number one. I much

842
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 1: respect for that. I love it. You kind of hit

843
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 1: the nail on the head when it comes to you know,

844
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: just the overall targets and yardage. I don't even know

845
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: if there's room to grow there. So I have him

846
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: improving the most in his touchdown production. I have him

847
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 1: getting much more of that Antonio Brown shared there. So

848
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: I have my at eight and a half touchdowns right now,

849
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 1: and that might be low. I'm curious to hear kind

850
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: of what your projection is there, but I think that's

851
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 1: where his upside's going to come, as if he can inherit,

852
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 1: you know, a big piece of the Antonio Brown touchdown pie.

853
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 1: But you know, I think that you know, it's going

854
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 1: to be unfair to expect the Steelers to throw at

855
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 1: six hundred and seventy five times again this year, So

856
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 1: just them becoming balanced might in the gate kind of

857
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 1: the boost he'll get from Antonio being gone in terms

858
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 1: of targets. I think the best way to kind of

859
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 1: invest in the void Antonio Brown creates is through guys

860
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,800
Speaker 1: like James Washington, Dante mon Creed for event, Deantey Johnson,

861
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,919
Speaker 1: Dance McDonald. I think that's kind of where you're gonna

862
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 1: see the most growth in the vacuum that Antonio Brown leaks.

863
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 1: Just because Juju is so good last year, I don't

864
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: know how much better you can get. But he is

865
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: entering his prime. He's gonna be turning twenty three this year,

866
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: so he definitely has, you know, top wide receiver upside

867
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: where you have ranked.

868
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 2: All right, I would love to continue talking about Juju.

869
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 2: This could be a Juju Antonio Brown podcast. But let's

870
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 2: talk about Mike Evans. He's a special player. There are

871
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 2: only a few other players, actually just two other players.

872
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 2: Randy Moss and AJ Green are the only two other

873
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 2: players who within their first five years in the league

874
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:46,439
Speaker 2: each season have had one thousand yards receiving. And Mike

875
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 2: Evans is the third guy. Of course, he now is

876
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 2: in a new offense with head coach Bruce Arians. I'm curious, Matt,

877
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,720
Speaker 2: what you think we're going to see, especially the impact

878
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 2: of the departure of DeShawn Jackson, Adam humphreyes sension presumably

879
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 2: of Chris Godwin and OJ Howard. What do you think

880
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 2: we're going to see here?

881
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, Mike Evans is actually a player that I haven't

882
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 3: thought much about because he's, as you mentioned, he's special.

883
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 3: He is good in reception perception. He's actually been a

884
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 3: much better separator than I think people would give him

885
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 3: credit for. He finished last year at the eighty second percentile,

886
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 3: which topped his previous career high when he finished with

887
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 3: a seventy point three percent success rate, and that was

888
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 3: back in twenty sixteen. Of course, everybody knows he's dominant

889
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 3: in all the contested catch metrics that I track as well.

890
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 3: So I think he's a great player. And I think

891
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 3: the fact that you know, I think we're all excited

892
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:36,720
Speaker 3: about Chris Godwin. I think we're all excited about Oj Howard.

893
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,400
Speaker 3: But I do think we've as a community as a whole,

894
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 3: we've maybe overlooked the fact that, like, yeah, Mike Evans

895
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 3: could actually just go completely nuclear this year because he's

896
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 3: the most proven player. We know, he's a dominant specimen

897
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 3: and in this offense that we're all giving a boost

898
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 3: of these these number two and number three players or

899
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 3: two a to be whatever in Godwin and Howard. With

900
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,320
Speaker 3: Bruce Arians coming in in the departure of the players

901
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 3: that you mentioned, it's hard not to think that Mike

902
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 3: Evans shouldn't also get that boost in stock, and for

903
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 3: that reason, I would probably break ties ahead of Juju

904
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 3: with Mike Evans, just because I know and trust the

905
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 3: role so much more and the potential situation. So, I mean,

906
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 3: Evans is a guy I actually haven't been drafting very

907
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 3: much of, but like not on purpose, only because I

908
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 3: just never end up in a position where picks Wyse

909
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 3: he comes to me. But yeah, I really like his

910
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 3: outlook a lot this year, and the more that I

911
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 3: think about it, the more that I like it.

912
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 2: Sean, I have Evans ranked twelve, which kind of surprises

913
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 2: me because I like him like I want to rank

914
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 2: him higher, and I'm probably gonna go back and readjust

915
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 2: the projections a little bit just so I get a

916
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:37,959
Speaker 2: little bit higher on him. But you have them six.

917
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on him?

918
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm just bullsh on the Buccaneers passing game

919
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 1: in general. I think Jameis Winston is my highest own

920
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: QB and best ball, so I do like stacking him

921
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: with Evans if I can, but the loss of de

922
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: Shaun Jackson Humphries should boost his targets even more, which

923
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: is scary to think. So you know, I love Evans

924
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,800
Speaker 1: a lot, and he essentially the end of my elite

925
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 1: wide receiver one tier. So he's the guy where, you know,

926
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,439
Speaker 1: I try to get two guys either him or guys

927
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 1: above him, because I just have you know, it's like

928
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 1: a ten to fifteen point drop off from him and

929
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 1: the next guy. So he's one of the most critical

930
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: wide receivers in this tier for me. Yeah, you know,

931
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 1: I think Arians will help just kind of keep the

932
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 1: continuity at quarterback. You know, we won't have to worry

933
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: about in game benchings and stuff. I can imagine that

934
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 1: would be pretty annoying for elite receiver like Evans, and

935
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 1: I went in. I saw he actually averaged one more

936
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,759
Speaker 1: point in Winston dominant games for what it's worth. So

937
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 1: you know, I think he has that long term connection

938
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 1: with Winston. So I think, you know, Winston Evans is

939
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: that's the Stacks invest in specifically, and best Ball contest

940
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 1: this year.

941
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 2: All right here it is, this is why people are listening.

942
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 2: So last year I wrote a piece that was not

943
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 2: well received at the time. I'll just say it, and

944
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 2: it was entitled something like Antonio Brown is falling off

945
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 2: a cliff and nobody cares. And I will say there

946
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 2: are some good points in that piece, and I think

947
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 2: throughout the off season, especially in the wake of the

948
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 2: Antonio Brown trade, that piece has been viewed more favorably.

949
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 2: But I am aware that it is very possible, maybe

950
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: even likely, that Antonio Brown has not fallen off a cliff.

951
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 2: Maybe he just had something wrong with his connection with

952
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 2: Ben Roethlisberger last year, and maybe with a new quarterback

953
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: in Derek Carr, he will be able to unlock the

954
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 2: potential that was not realized last year. That when you

955
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 2: looked at reception perception for twenty eighteen, specifically Antonio Brown's tape,

956
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 2: his route running technique, is he still the same guy

957
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 2: that he was in the previous five seasons.

958
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 3: Let me first say, when I saw you write that

959
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 3: piece the middle of last year, I was like, Holy hell,

960
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 3: that was a power move because I would have never

961
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 3: had the stones to do it. I thought, and to

962
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 3: your credit too, like, there aren't just good points in there.

963
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 3: There are great points in there. And I remember reading

964
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 3: and thinking like, oh, yeah, I mean this. I mean

965
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:09,879
Speaker 3: I disagree, but I think that you make a really

966
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 3: compelling argument all around. So I'm gonna give you some

967
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you some credit for that from a

968
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 3: reception perception standpoint last year, so that he was one

969
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 3: of the He's actually a player that I charted right

970
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 3: away when I started working on reception perception because I

971
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: was so curious based on your opinion and just obviously

972
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 3: knowing that he was going to be traded. What I

973
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 3: found was that there wasn't much of a drop off.

974
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,320
Speaker 3: For the fifth year in a row, Antonio Brown cleared

975
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 3: the ninety sixth percentile and success rate verst Man coverage.

976
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 3: No one else has really even come close to sustaining

977
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 3: that level of elite separation, that level of route running,

978
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 3: you know, a success rate versus press coverage was right

979
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 3: in line with what he posted the previous year at

980
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 3: seventy nine point two percent. As I mentioned earlier in

981
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 3: the Jujus M. Schuster section, he's playing X receiver as

982
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 3: much as anyone and he still shows dominant separation ability. Now,

983
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 3: if I'm to theorize, and I'm gonna say this is

984
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 3: a educated guests I'll just say that as to what

985
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,919
Speaker 3: went wrong last year with Ben Roethlisberger, I think, obviously, look,

986
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 3: we all know those two. Clearly their relationship from a

987
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 3: personal standpoint clearly fell apart last year. But throughout the

988
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 3: year I had heard that he was, you know, Brown

989
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 3: was kind of freelancing, was clearly running routes well, but

990
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 3: was freelancing and doing sort of his own thing that

991
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 3: Roethlisberger wasn't expecting, which is why the connection wasn't there.

992
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 3: I also think Roethlisberger just watching these games and charting

993
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 3: the per reception perception just missed Brown a lot. And again,

994
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 3: could that be because of Brown kind of going off script.

995
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 2: I don't know.

996
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 3: Also, I kind of the information that I got, I'm like,

997
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,879
Speaker 3: I could see the Roethlisberger spin being putting on this

998
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 3: a little bit. But I do know that there was

999
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 3: some concerns about the fact Brown was kind of doing

1000
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:46,280
Speaker 3: his own thing and just trying to work himself open

1001
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: individually without just following the structure of the play. So

1002
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 3: that's certainly possible as to why this connection was off

1003
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 3: for part of the year or some.

1004
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:54,399
Speaker 2: Parts of the year.

1005
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 3: But all this kind of comes coming back to fantasy

1006
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 3: Brown can still be a dominant in individual player, and

1007
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 3: it's literally impossible to make the case that this move

1008
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 3: is anything but a downgrade for his fantasy stock to

1009
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,760
Speaker 3: go to Oakland. I think that Brown is a timing

1010
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 3: and precision route runner, and I think car is a

1011
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 3: little bit better than he gets credit for as a

1012
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 3: timing and precision passer only even if you won't push

1013
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 3: the ball down the field. So I think there could

1014
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: be a high reception total for Brown coming to Oakland.

1015
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 3: But in the end, this is a clear downgrade and

1016
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 3: for fantasy like I can sit here and say that

1017
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:27,280
Speaker 3: he's still a peak route runner, which I do strongly

1018
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 3: believe that he is, but I don't I don't you know,

1019
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 3: the production is not going to come, Matt. Do you

1020
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 3: know what you call an NFL wide receiver who can't

1021
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 3: get open within the confines of a play? What a

1022
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:42,720
Speaker 3: soon to be former NFL wide receiver? No, I'm obviously

1023
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 3: joking in And yeah, I mean I think I was

1024
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 3: probably too strong on my Antonio Brown dislike last year.

1025
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 3: And I mean the thing is, I haven't projected now

1026
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:57,919
Speaker 3: as the number five overall wide receiver, which is.

1027
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 2: Probably too high. But I think he's going to be

1028
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 2: fed so many target in that offense that it will

1029
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 2: be hard for him not to finish at least in

1030
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 2: the top eight if he has something even approaching his

1031
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 2: career averages in terms of efficiency. Sean, what do you

1032
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 2: think of this Antonio Brown's situation?

1033
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 1: My medium productions for him are pretty good. I'm being

1034
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 1: pretty aggressive.

1035
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 2: I agree with you.

1036
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: I think you know, without a doubt, he's going to

1037
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: see a ton of targets. But he's He's the only

1038
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: receiver in the top ten where I definitely have some doubts.

1039
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 1: There's there's more uncertainty. So I just feel like his

1040
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 1: floor is the lowest out of anybody in this tier.

1041
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 1: So I try not to draft him if I can

1042
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 1: help it. Unfortunately, our current mock draft, I had to

1043
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: take him that no choice. But you know, I just

1044
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: think he and Big Ben did have sort of that

1045
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 1: mind meld where he kind of knew where he'd be

1046
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 1: and they're on the same page. And it takes some

1047
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 1: time to get that. So you know, we'll see how

1048
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: he and car look, but that's something that I think

1049
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 1: takes time. Another thing is just seeing how Amari Cooper

1050
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:07,879
Speaker 1: was just frustrating as hell, you know, his first three

1051
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,319
Speaker 1: or four years in the the Raiders offense, and then

1052
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 1: they trade him to the Cowboys and he becomes, you know,

1053
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: the week weekly wide receiver one we all figured he'd be.

1054
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 1: So there's just little subtle things like that that concern me.

1055
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,799
Speaker 1: And I mentioned earlier with DeVante, Adams and Hopkins how

1056
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 1: elite they are. They were still able to put up

1057
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 1: wide receiver one numbers even when their QB went down.

1058
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:30,760
Speaker 1: And you know, if you look at the five games

1059
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown didn't have big Big Ben. He had Larry Drones,

1060
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,840
Speaker 1: which you can compare to guys like Tom Savage, T

1061
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 1: J Eight's and Brett Humley. He averaged four point eight

1062
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 1: receptions for six eight yards and zero touchdowns. And I

1063
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 1: remember when whenever Big Bun was out, I rank ab

1064
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 1: as you know, like a low end wide receiver too.

1065
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:54,959
Speaker 1: He is that dependent on the quarterback. So and yeah,

1066
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 1: he didn't catch touchdowns. So every one of his touchdowns

1067
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,040
Speaker 1: in his career has been thrown by Big Ben. So

1068
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,719
Speaker 1: just the change is so extreme that it does leave

1069
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: some room for a pretty low floor. But having said that,

1070
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 1: my medium projections are still solid. It's just I don't

1071
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: want to be taking him this year.

1072
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of room for downside, Matt. I'd

1073
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 2: like to get your thoughts on this. Out of the

1074
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 2: eight wide receivers we've talked about so far, so far,

1075
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:23,439
Speaker 2: we'll say nine, including Tyreek Hill. If one of these

1076
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 2: guys is to finish outside of the top thirty yet

1077
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 2: still play, let's say at least fourteen games this year,

1078
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,279
Speaker 2: that guy has to be Antonio Brown.

1079
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 3: Right, Yes, I would say so, just from like if

1080
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 3: there's just a complete disaster situation, I think the disaster

1081
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 3: situation is an easier and more believable story to tell

1082
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 3: for Antonio Brown than probably any of.

1083
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 2: These other players. Yeah, that's that's my sense of this,

1084
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 2: and for me, that is why I would want to

1085
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 2: stay away a little bit from him in drafts, just

1086
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 2: because even though from the medium projection, I think he

1087
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:03,799
Speaker 2: could have another very typically strong Antonio Brown here, the

1088
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,880
Speaker 2: downside just seems to be pretty big. I kind of

1089
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 2: see a tier break between Antonio Brown here and then

1090
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 2: the guys who are coming after him. In ADP, we

1091
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 2: have t Y Hilton, Adam Thalen, Keenan Allen, and aj Green. Matt.

1092
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 2: Out of those four guys who is the one that

1093
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 2: you would be most excited to take in a draft

1094
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 2: this year. Yeah, it's AJ.

1095
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 3: Green, And I actually don't think it's particularly close because

1096
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,359
Speaker 3: of these I agree with you one thousand percent. There's

1097
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 3: definitely a tier break here, but AJ Green is the

1098
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:38,840
Speaker 3: only one that I think has the potential to jump

1099
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 3: into like the top five. I don't see a potential

1100
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 3: for t Y Hilton, Adam Thielen actually would I think

1101
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:46,959
Speaker 3: I still would put steph On Diggs ahead of Adam

1102
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:50,239
Speaker 3: Deelon because I'm just a sucker for Diggs and Keenan Allen,

1103
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 3: all of those guys, I don't think they have necessarily

1104
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:55,279
Speaker 3: top five potential in their range of outcomes. AJ Green

1105
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 3: probably isn't going to get there, but I think because

1106
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 3: he's still the best player, He's still the most clear

1107
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 3: alpha on his team among these guys. And if this

1108
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 3: offense takes a step forward, which some of the offensive

1109
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:10,439
Speaker 3: line injuries or the offensive line injuries and like retirements

1110
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 3: lately for the Bengals leave me questioning whether they can

1111
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 3: take that step as an offense. But I still think

1112
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 3: overall Green is still a great player. I think that

1113
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:20,760
Speaker 3: he has the potential to suck up the most volume

1114
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 3: and the most high leverage volume of these guys, and

1115
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 3: for that reason, like when he gets to the two

1116
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 3: three turn, I absolutely can't help myself but to take

1117
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 3: him there pretty much every single time.

1118
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Matt, your point here about the high leverage volume,

1119
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: I think really is the key there, because out of

1120
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 2: the four Hilton, dealand Allen and Green, Green strikes me

1121
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:42,240
Speaker 2: as the only guy who has a twelve touchdown season

1122
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,879
Speaker 2: within his range of outcomes. I just don't see that

1123
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 2: for any of the other three. Sean, what are your

1124
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:49,479
Speaker 2: thoughts on ad Green?

1125
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:52,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would I would agree with that. I think

1126
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 1: he does have the most upside. I actually have ranked sixteenth,

1127
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: but it's not like I have any particular reason, I

1128
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 1: just have all let me see, it's it's receivers ten

1129
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 1: through sixteen I have separated by about six points, so

1130
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 1: that that's just that that massive like elite wide receiver

1131
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:14,879
Speaker 1: two tier that we talked about earlier, these are guys

1132
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: that you're going to be getting when you when you

1133
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 1: have a top four pick, So you'll likely have either

1134
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 1: like Sequon Barkley, Zeke, Elliott Kamara or McCaffrey, and then

1135
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: you can just snag any two of these guys, and

1136
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 1: I think that's like the optimal start to a draft.

1137
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 1: But I would I would lean if you're in a

1138
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:35,799
Speaker 1: PPR format, I would still lean Keenan Allen. I know

1139
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:39,359
Speaker 1: that Hunter Henry's returning. I think Hunter Henry and Mike

1140
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 1: Williams are. You know, they're going to fight over the touchdowns.

1141
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 1: But with Tyro Williams gone, ke and Allen's still going

1142
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 1: to see a massive target share. But you know he's

1143
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 1: he's not really a threat in the red zone, so

1144
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 1: you pretty much know what you're gonna get with him

1145
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 1: a ton of catches and a ton of yards. So

1146
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 1: I think a PPR format specifically, I lean Ken Allen.

1147
00:53:56,960 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 2: Out of all these guys. Mah, I'd like to get

1148
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 2: your thoughts on last year. Chris Raybond and I had

1149
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,360
Speaker 2: a I don't know, I'm trying to think of the

1150
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 2: right way of politely phrasing it, not like it needs

1151
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 2: to be phrased politely, but we disagreed. I thought AJ

1152
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 2: Green was better. He thought Keenan Allen was better. I

1153
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:17,400
Speaker 2: would say, even though Green didn't finish the season suffered

1154
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:21,800
Speaker 2: an injury, I still think Green, just to my eye,

1155
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:25,239
Speaker 2: he looked better and more explosive. But what are your

1156
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:29,359
Speaker 2: thoughts on Keenan Allen in those two guys as comparisons.

1157
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:31,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was actually kind of having a similar back

1158
00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 3: and forth with myself because I don't have any friends

1159
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 3: I have back and forth with, I guess, but I

1160
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 3: was thinking about this myself because I was thinking, like,

1161
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 3: who's the best big route running receiver over the last

1162
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 3: five years? And I think Michael Thomas. Of course I

1163
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 3: mentioned all of his success earlier, but he's only been

1164
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:50,880
Speaker 3: here for three years or so. Like with Alan and Green,

1165
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 3: I think those are two guys you can consider. Keenan

1166
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:57,280
Speaker 3: Allen's been dominant in reception perception, He's finished great against

1167
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,879
Speaker 3: man and press coverage consistently in his career, and he's

1168
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 3: only playing inside more. But still I think he can

1169
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:07,440
Speaker 3: separate versus anybody. But I would go Green slightly as

1170
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 3: the better player because of what he does at the

1171
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 3: catch point. And Alan is interesting because he kind of

1172
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 3: just thumps people on for like a handful of routes

1173
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:21,320
Speaker 3: like slants, curls, digs, and posts, which, hey, that's great,

1174
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 3: Like those are the primary functions of an NFL offense

1175
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 3: is to run those routes, those inbreaking routes, especially in

1176
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:30,439
Speaker 3: the modern NFL. But Green runs every route on the Tree,

1177
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 3: runs it incredibly well. He's more of a vertical threat

1178
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 3: than Keenan Allen is. And you know last year he

1179
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 3: was great at the catch point, actually finished with the

1180
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 3: best contested catch rate I've charted over the last five years.

1181
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 3: So I think from a peak perspective, I think Green

1182
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 3: is the better player. Alan's not far behind, but it's

1183
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 3: a slight edge to Green.

1184
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 2: All right, ideal time on my part to ask that

1185
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 2: question while Chris Raymond wasn't here to give his counterpoint.

1186
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 2: But anyway, I'm sure on a future episode he will

1187
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 2: be more than happy in my absence to talk about

1188
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 2: how great Keenan Allen is. Matt, this has been a

1189
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 2: lot of fun to have you do you want to

1190
00:56:06,160 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 2: take a minute to talk about what you and the

1191
00:56:08,520 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 2: crew have going on at Yahoo.

1192
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:13,719
Speaker 3: A lot of fun things going on at Yahoo right now.

1193
00:56:14,480 --> 00:56:16,880
Speaker 3: I mentioned the podcast earlier with Liz Low's and I

1194
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:18,759
Speaker 3: We're gonna be going twice a week in August, so

1195
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 3: we have a lot of fun with that. It's a

1196
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 3: little bit different than I think most you know, super

1197
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 3: Info Heavy podcast but we try to mix a good

1198
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:28,560
Speaker 3: insight with also some fun you know, banter and everything

1199
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 3: like that. Fantasy Football Live, our live show on Sunday Morning,

1200
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 3: is getting a little bit of a facelift this year,

1201
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:34,399
Speaker 3: primarily because I'm going to be on the show every

1202
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:36,240
Speaker 3: week the full time, and hey, that's a good face

1203
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:36,839
Speaker 3: to lift it with.

1204
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:37,399
Speaker 2: You know what I mean.

1205
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 3: And other than that, you know, we just launched our

1206
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 3: Best Ball game, which you can now get on the

1207
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 3: Yahoo Fantasy app. It's a lot of fun. The draft

1208
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 3: functionality is great, so you know, jump in and we'll

1209
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:49,719
Speaker 3: be doing a lot of fun content based on that.

1210
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:51,359
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, we got a lot of fun

1211
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:53,720
Speaker 3: stuff going on, and I'll be sure to let everybody

1212
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 3: know about it on Twitter and everything.

1213
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 2: All right, that sounds great. Be sure to follow Matt

1214
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:01,280
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Matt Harmon Underscore, you can follow Sean

1215
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 2: and Me and the Action Network app at the Underscore

1216
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:05,879
Speaker 2: Odds Maker and Matt at the Oracle. Use the app

1217
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:08,240
Speaker 2: to get real time odds and track your bets for free.

1218
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 2: On our next NFL episode, we will break down the

1219
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 2: rest of the wide receiver position till then that is

1220
00:57:13,600 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 2: going to do it for the Action Network podcast. Please rate,

1221
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 2: interview the show on Apple podcasts or wherever you get

1222
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 2: your podcasts. See you again, next episode.