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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: This is a.

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Speaker 3: Joy And for Global Wall Street lean forward.

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Speaker 4: Stuart Kaiser joins us in NIC's got a fancy title,

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Speaker 4: had a US equity trading strategy.

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Speaker 3: It's City Group.

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Speaker 4: You've seen him in the TV show Industry and we've

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Speaker 4: got in here for a long conversation today. What's the

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Speaker 4: mood on institutional desks? Our review is retails buying on

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Speaker 4: the dip and institutions are going mental over this, that

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Speaker 4: and the other thing. What's the mood that you see

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Speaker 4: across pro desks.

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Speaker 5: I think people are a little bit concerned about the

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Speaker 5: speed of the rally, But the fact is it seems

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Speaker 5: like stamatic buying is really going to be very large

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Speaker 5: over the next couple of weeks up and people are

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Speaker 5: not going to fight that. So I think even if

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Speaker 5: you're a little negative of the market as an institutional investor,

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Speaker 5: you're sort of allowing this buying to play out and

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Speaker 5: then you'll kind of step back in, you know, once

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Speaker 5: that's done. So I would say, you know, a little

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Speaker 5: bit concerned with the speed, but you know, okay, for

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Speaker 5: now what we call long.

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Speaker 4: Only buy side, which is basically conservative money. Folks are

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Speaker 4: not doing hedge funds and all the fancy things you

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Speaker 4: see on industry or billions.

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Speaker 3: Forget about that long only by side. Do they feel

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Speaker 3: behind right now?

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Speaker 2: You know, I think a little bit.

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Speaker 5: But the fact is the sell off happened so quick

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Speaker 5: and then the rally happened so quick back that you know,

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Speaker 5: it was a little hard to capture the rally, but

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Speaker 5: it was also a little hard to risk matters the

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Speaker 5: way down. So I think they're actually just pretty happy

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Speaker 5: we've got the price levels back back to where it was.

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Speaker 2: If you look at your so they.

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Speaker 3: Were dumb going down and dumb going up. I love it. Well.

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Speaker 5: I prefer the word patient, patient and strategic. But but yeah,

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Speaker 5: I mean, like you'd give you an example. You know,

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Speaker 5: we had a lot of investors coming in when you

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Speaker 5: were on the lows. What are the ten or fifteen

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Speaker 5: stocks you would buy here. By the time they would

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Speaker 5: have put that trade on, we're already ten percent higher.

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Speaker 5: You know, we kind of made a joke last weekend

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Speaker 5: that whole seventeen percent rally, if you timed it perfect,

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Speaker 5: you only needed to own the market for sixty minutes.

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Speaker 3: Slow stop. Show you work on the weekends sometimes yeah,

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Speaker 3: sometimes this is just.

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Speaker 4: Because Jane's in a commute right now and you work.

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Speaker 5: I have to catch up on all your YouTube, all

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Speaker 5: your YouTube, and I can't go during the week.

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Speaker 6: Sectors, sir, what do you guys see on your desk?

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Speaker 6: Are people just kind of are they jumping back into tech?

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Speaker 6: Are they just trying to buy good balance sheets? What

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Speaker 6: are they buying out there when they did come back?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean tech and growth I think have been

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Speaker 5: the stocks that have driven the rally the most. Two

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Speaker 5: things that would just highlight institutional investors two themes that

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Speaker 5: they liked earlier in the year that they got hurt

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Speaker 5: on but now are re engaging in, would be power generation.

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Speaker 5: So all that power that we need for AI and

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Speaker 5: M and A targets. You know, coming into the year,

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Speaker 5: we had thought we were going to get this big

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Speaker 5: M and A cycle, all the tariff news, all the

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Speaker 5: market volatility, you know, delayed that I think people are

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Speaker 5: hoping now that things stabilized, that we will get a

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Speaker 5: little bit of an M and A cycle, and that's

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Speaker 5: going to be good for the bank sector. So I

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Speaker 5: think those are two areas growth and banks that are

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Speaker 5: People were focused on healthcare has been real tricky, so

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Speaker 5: I think.

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Speaker 2: People are kind of staying away from that.

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Speaker 5: A big OPEC meeting you know today, I think it

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Speaker 5: is so you'll have some focus on energy. But I

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Speaker 5: think to the longside it's been growth stocks, particularly tech,

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Speaker 5: and then some.

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Speaker 2: Re entry into the bank space.

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Speaker 7: We had Gena Martin Adams on earlier.

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Speaker 6: She's a US equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, and she

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Speaker 6: was saying, this non US trade into Europe and other

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Speaker 6: non ghost markets that's still there.

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Speaker 7: It's still playing.

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Speaker 6: Are you still having those conversations with your clients that

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Speaker 6: they want to own maybe some European stocks.

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Speaker 5: We're still having the conversations. I think the fact that

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Speaker 5: you know, we've backed off the worst of the tariff

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Speaker 5: outcomes has made people a little more comfortable.

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Speaker 2: Kind of being in the US.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean the Europe versus US trade, particularly

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Speaker 5: when you got that fiscal announcement. Yeah, I think the

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Speaker 5: view is it's a very high bar to get the

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Speaker 5: Europeans to spend money. The fact that they were committed

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Speaker 5: to do that gets real money in the US a

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Speaker 5: little more comfortable owning Europe, and I think it's given

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Speaker 5: it another leg there. The fact is, though you've not

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Speaker 5: seen an extended period of Europe beating the US probably

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Speaker 5: for about twenty years, so there is you know, I

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Speaker 5: think people like the trade, but they're also they respect

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Speaker 5: that and are a little bit you know, cautious about how.

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Speaker 2: Long it might might keep going.

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Speaker 4: They got to relearn the stock symbols Steward Kaiser with

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Speaker 4: us on your commute across an issue. Good morning, particularly

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Speaker 4: good morning and Android Ota Google. Did you see they

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Speaker 4: did their their roadshow.

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Speaker 3: Thing yesterday big heys like big, It was bigger.

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Speaker 7: Than I thought.

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Speaker 3: I got to actually like read about it, like they

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Speaker 3: get up to Gemini.

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Speaker 4: Yes, Gemini and all that. Anyways, good morning on your community.

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Speaker 4: Good morning on YouTube as well, Thank you YouTube. When

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Speaker 4: we put this together, like as a huge deal, should

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Speaker 4: we have makeup or not make up? It was like

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Speaker 4: a major debate, folks. Matteo had a tantrum where people

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Speaker 4: came in and they said, look, I'm endorsed by Bobby

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Speaker 4: Brown and Mac I gotta have the makeup.

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Speaker 3: Going, so Lisa's the only one that beautifies here, and so.

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Speaker 4: To have Steve Roach on the phone looking over Steve,

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Speaker 4: the camera's over there.

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Speaker 3: But that's the way we're rolling on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: Stewart Keiser without makeup this morning, I want you to

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Speaker 4: talk about MAG seven.

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Speaker 3: In position sizing.

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Speaker 4: What do your big clients, what do they do when

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Speaker 4: they go h I think we need more Apple just

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Speaker 4: as one example, how.

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Speaker 3: Do you affect position sizing in MAG seven?

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Speaker 2: Look at Tom. It's a great question because at the

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Speaker 2: beginning of the year, the.

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Speaker 5: Two biggest challenges to the MAG seven trade were valuation

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Speaker 5: and positioning. From mid February till March, those two things

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Speaker 5: got addressed pretty quickly. Valuation down twenty five percent, positioning,

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Speaker 5: you know, kind of pulled off. I think what we've seen, frankly,

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Speaker 5: is a lot of people in that AI trade kind

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Speaker 5: of sizing up a little more on the software side,

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Speaker 5: a little a little less on the Microsoft on a tear. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: Microsoft Meta, you know, has obviously been a favorite in

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Speaker 5: terms of sizing the other stuff. Honestly, the what those

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Speaker 5: we've seen recently have been almost across the board. Like

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Speaker 5: you know, I'm going to trade Max SEV and maybe

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Speaker 5: I pulled Tesla out because Tesla's had a little bit

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Speaker 5: bit of political risk. But I'm going to pretty much

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Speaker 5: put a dollar or ten million dollars in each of

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Speaker 5: those stocks on generally.

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Speaker 3: So for you is ten million dollars for.

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Speaker 2: Me personally, No, what I love for me is about

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Speaker 2: fifty fifty dollars.

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Speaker 3: The City group An is a ten ten million give

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Speaker 3: it to the intern to trade.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, look, these stocks are I mean you're

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Speaker 5: talking three trillion dollars in market cap for some of

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Speaker 5: these stocks, So you know, the notional sizes going through

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Speaker 5: or are quite large.

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Speaker 2: I think you're generally approximately equal weight.

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Speaker 5: But going into each quarter, there's always one or two

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Speaker 5: that are favorites that are a little more widely held,

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Speaker 5: and a couple that are less liked. And again, I

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Speaker 5: think the software side of that Ledger is a little

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Speaker 5: more little more over owned right now, and perhaps the

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Speaker 5: tech hardware and send me is a little less owned

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Speaker 5: at the moment.

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Speaker 6: What's going to drive this market for the remainder of

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Speaker 6: the year. I'm looking at the WORP function and I

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Speaker 6: think I've only got a couple of fit cuts.

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Speaker 7: Maybe in the forecast, is it earnings?

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Speaker 6: Is it just what comes out of washing in DC

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Speaker 6: and what comes over X or Twitter or whatever it's called.

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Speaker 7: Is that what drives the market today?

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Speaker 5: Look, I think near term, like the next month or so,

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Speaker 5: it's a lot about positioning, and now that you had

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Speaker 5: that Moody's downgrade, it's going to be what happens in

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Speaker 5: the long end of the bond curve. As you guys

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Speaker 5: were chatting about earlier, you know, medium term, what's called

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Speaker 5: that July through September, it's going to really all be

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Speaker 5: to me about EPs and GDP growth. Okay, both the

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Speaker 5: FED and Corporate America took a weight and see approach

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Speaker 5: in the first quarter. I don't think that's going to

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Speaker 5: be sustainable through the summer. So we're ultimately either going

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Speaker 5: to see relief and the recession risk get priced out,

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Speaker 5: or we're going to see EPs and GDP numbers come down,

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Speaker 5: and that's going to be kind of a waiting on

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Speaker 5: the market. So I think, frankly, let's call it July

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Speaker 5: through September, through the September FED, this is really going

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Speaker 5: to be about the growth outlook.

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Speaker 6: It seems like I mean Erning's growth. I don't know

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Speaker 6: what Scott Crohner's saying, but I mean we've got Erning's

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Speaker 6: growth was like thirteen fourteen fifteen percent for this year.

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Speaker 6: Now it's down to like seven. Is that Is there

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Speaker 6: still risk in earning?

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Speaker 7: Strewth Do you think?

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Speaker 5: I think there is still risk? I mean, you know,

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Speaker 5: Scott was a two seventy for the year. He took

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Speaker 5: his number down of two fifty five. That number does

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Speaker 5: not include a recession. So the downside risk from here

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Speaker 5: is less tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Because I think we've trimmed the tail.

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Speaker 5: Risk off tariffs and it's more about what is happening

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Speaker 5: to the economy. So I do think there is a

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Speaker 5: bit more downside to earnings, but it's going to be

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Speaker 5: relying on economic data. I think most people at this

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Speaker 5: point have incorporated some degree of tariff hadwin.

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Speaker 3: So do institutions call you up.

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Speaker 4: It's like industry and they gotta go to break and

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Speaker 4: get to the next season. Do people call up and

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Speaker 4: say go to cash at that size and scale?

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Speaker 5: People don't do that, right, I mean, look, it depends

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Speaker 5: like a mutual if on long only can't really be

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Speaker 5: in cash right regulatory wise, they can't be you know

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Speaker 5: hedge funds, Yes, I mean hedge funds will go cash.

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Speaker 3: Up and say clear out these four positions? Yeah, or

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Speaker 3: how do you do that?

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Speaker 2: We just we push a button. These days, I think

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Speaker 2: no man like I think. I think.

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Speaker 5: What's interesting, Tommy, you're raising you entry point is the

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Speaker 5: selling that we saw earlier in the year was much

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Speaker 5: more what we call low touch, going through the pipes,

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Speaker 5: going through the computers, going through the algorithms. We haven't

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Speaker 5: had those days where they are calling up our high.

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Speaker 2: Touch sales desk and just saying get me out quick.

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Speaker 2: And I think part of the.

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Speaker 5: Reason for that is something you touched on earlier. People

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Speaker 5: are so long these stocks that if you're trimming up

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Speaker 5: your positions, you need to do it quite quietly, if

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Speaker 5: that makes sense.

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to mention the name here. The name

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Speaker 3: doesn't matter.

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Speaker 4: Folks in the Bloomberg you can't believe the information you've

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Speaker 4: got when you get the terminal. Get the terminal, folks,

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Speaker 4: you need your card. So I got a very famous

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Speaker 4: regional American name. They own seven point one six three,

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Speaker 4: six seven nine Microsoft shares. So when they call up

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Speaker 4: and say sell a ten percent position seven hundred and

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Speaker 4: seventeen thousand shares. How do you actually do that? Do

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Speaker 4: you just put in a cell order for seven hundreds?

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Speaker 4: You don't do that, right?

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Speaker 5: No, I mean a lot of that is done, you know,

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Speaker 5: gradually throughout the day, the day on evaluated probably unless

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Speaker 5: it is a we have to get out and look.

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Speaker 5: What I would say too, is that the retail participation

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Speaker 5: in the market is much larger today than it was

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Speaker 5: a few years ago. So actually, if you're an institutional

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Speaker 5: investor selling stock in retail, you're selling to a c

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Speaker 5: LEBRITYTF you're selling to retail the men. Again, you're not

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Speaker 5: just dumping it at one block. You're taking your time,

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Speaker 5: you're spreading it out over the day, and you're making

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Speaker 5: it work.

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Speaker 3: Jane calls in.

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Speaker 4: Good Jane, thank you so much for calling in from Connecticut.

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Speaker 4: If you sell four percent of it's seven hundred and

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Speaker 4: seventeen thousand.

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Speaker 3: And you have to wait twenty minutes, what do you

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Speaker 3: do in the meantime?

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Speaker 2: You get coffee?

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Speaker 3: You get coffee.

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Speaker 4: I thought, that's how well, if it's here four o'clock,

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Speaker 4: it's like, where are we going to have a beverage?

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Speaker 6: Exactly, So, doing that selloff, we saw earlier, Earlier in

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Speaker 6: the year, we had some really you know, maybe a

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Speaker 6: five or six day period. It wasn't panic selling. Everybody said,

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Speaker 6: it was kind of orderly selling. What were the calls

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Speaker 6: you're getting from your clients. Was it the get me

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Speaker 6: out call or was it, hey, we're.

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Speaker 7: Taking some risk off the table kind of call.

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Speaker 2: I think it was more of the latter.

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Speaker 5: As you said, it wasn't a discombobulated and aggressive sell off.

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Speaker 5: I think people were pretty measured about it. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 5: a lot of that was going through the computers, going

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Speaker 5: through the algos, less you know, just calling us up

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Speaker 5: and saying sort of get me out now. Obviously there

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Speaker 5: were some of that, but no, it was a pretty

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Speaker 5: orderly self. But if you think of the sell if

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Speaker 5: it happened in two stages, right, you had about a

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Speaker 5: ten percent draw down to la February, and then you

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Speaker 5: had another you don't post the tariff announcement. The first

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Speaker 5: of those ten percent pullbacks was a little bit more disorderly,

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Speaker 5: a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit more stressed.

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Speaker 5: Once you got that initial pullback, a lot of institutional

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Speaker 5: investors got their risk right sized, and when you had

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Speaker 5: that second pullback, I think.

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Speaker 2: People were much more prepared for it.

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Speaker 3: If it makes sense, this is brilliant.

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Speaker 4: I did not observe, and folks, I'm making it up

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Speaker 4: by by no means have my thumb on the market,

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Speaker 4: not that I ever did. But I didn't see Catharsis

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Speaker 4: there in the big cardit on follow, folks, because the

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Speaker 4: drift of bitcoin.

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Speaker 3: Is a fiction. But in your world, Steward Kaiser, I

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Speaker 3: didn't see panic. I didn't see Catharsis.

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Speaker 5: Look at and top to your point, I mean you

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Speaker 5: basically Liberation Day was April second. The market bottomed on

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Speaker 5: April seventh, intra day, and on April eighth, on a

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Speaker 5: close to close. It was really a three day, three

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Speaker 5: to five day sel if it didn't feel like that,

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Speaker 5: but you know that's what the price actually would tell you.

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Speaker 5: So look, you had a few moments there where you

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Speaker 5: got the vix up to fifty sixty, and I think

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Speaker 5: that was the closest we got to kind of you

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Speaker 5: know compure, you know, complete fear based selling. You know,

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Speaker 5: the fact is one of a good good proxy for

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Speaker 5: today I think is actually twenty eleven in the sense

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Speaker 5: that it was sort of a self created selloff driven

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Speaker 5: by government policy, and you know, the second the administration

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Speaker 5: started to show that they were willing to negotiate and

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Speaker 5: trim the tail rists off.

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Speaker 2: I think people got much more comfortable that this isn't

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Speaker 2: great risk reward.

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Speaker 5: But this is not, you know, a COVID or financial

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Speaker 5: financial crisis quickly.

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Speaker 4: Or season four. Harry Lotty's not going to be back

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Speaker 4: for industry. Are you going to be back for industry

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Speaker 4: for season four?

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Speaker 3: Shortly?

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Speaker 2: Up to the agents, Tom, you know we have to.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Cia, I understand. Stuart Kaiser on the street. I

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Speaker 4: can't say enough, folks, a joy of Stuart. He's not

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Speaker 4: coming in going well, the Fed will do this. It

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Speaker 4: It's like real talk.

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Speaker 6: And I reach Stuart's note every day because if I

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Speaker 6: only have time for one paragraph, I got it.

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Speaker 7: I can sound smart. What's buying, what's selling?

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Speaker 2: I got it?

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Speaker 3: Treasure from Citigroup. Stuart Kaiser, thank you so much, Jane,

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Speaker 3: be nice to him. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: Joining us now for an extended important conversation here on

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Speaker 4: your conviction to be in the equity markets. Brian Belski's

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Speaker 4: chief investment strategist for PMO Capital Markets. I'm sorry, Brian,

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Speaker 4: for me always and forever.

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Speaker 3: The my truh gosh, Brian.

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Speaker 4: You know, Brandon want you to talk about what I've

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Speaker 4: lived and a lot of younger people have never lived it.

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Speaker 3: If price goes.

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Speaker 4: Down and yields go up, stocks can still do well.

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Speaker 8: Discuss that they can do very well. And thanks for

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Speaker 8: mentioning Nick Rokanova too. First of all, one of the

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Speaker 8: best names in Wall Street history, never one number two.

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Speaker 9: The poor man has worked with me for eighteen years,

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Speaker 9: so well, pray for him.

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Speaker 8: I'm coming live to you, by the way, from the

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Speaker 8: from the wonderful Jennifer Lee's office here at BEMO headquarters

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Speaker 8: in Toronto. So I feel like I'm in the in

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Speaker 8: the in the midst of greatness and anyway, yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 8: So I really think we wrote this piece and talk

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Speaker 8: about voluminous piece. Nick, lets me go crazy on the

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Speaker 8: year Ahead piece. We wrote this piece in twenty twenty

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Speaker 8: two for the twenty twenty three Year Ahead, and we

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Speaker 8: talked to Tom about normalization in markets.

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Speaker 9: Something we talked about last appearance as well, and you know,

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Speaker 9: stocks can go up when.

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Speaker 8: Yields go up. You know, the average ten year treasury

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Speaker 8: the last seventy five years is five percent. Zero percent

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Speaker 8: is not normal. What's happened in the FED since November

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Speaker 8: of two thousand set, I'm sorry, August of two thousand

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Speaker 8: and seven is not normal. And I think we're kind

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Speaker 8: of returning to normalcy on the bond side of things.

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Speaker 9: Even though we're primarily equity people, we believe the majority.

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Speaker 8: Of returns, total returns of bonds the next ten years

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Speaker 8: is going to be about yield, not price performance. Remember

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Speaker 8: the last forty years, we've seen massive all performance of

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Speaker 8: bonds for the most part, and we've had great price performance.

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Speaker 8: So I think Tom that we're entering into this period

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Speaker 8: where more even returns for stocks high single digit, low

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Speaker 8: double digit.

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Speaker 9: Same thing with Ernie's growth, where a yield environment can

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Speaker 9: that can kind of hover in this three fifty to

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Speaker 9: four to fifty range predominantly.

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Speaker 6: So you know, even though you maintain and rightfully so, Brian,

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Speaker 6: your bullish stance here and it's been an amazing rebound

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Speaker 6: in this market, here, still your EPs for the s

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Speaker 6: and p five hundred still around two hundred and fifty bucks.

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Speaker 6: Does that support higher stocks from here?

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Speaker 9: It does, and we're in the bottom of the report.

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Speaker 8: Paul, we talked about how we're not revising back to

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Speaker 8: our sixty seven hundred target, which was officially our initial

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Speaker 8: target for twenty twenty five. It still remains our bow

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Speaker 8: case at two seventy five for earnings and sixty seven hundred.

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Speaker 9: For the price.

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Speaker 8: However, as we wrote the piece, we need to see

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Speaker 8: some sign posts, quite frankly, and one of them, quite frankly,

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Speaker 8: to be clear, is we need to see guidance come back,

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Speaker 8: and we need to see earnings growth solidify, and so

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Speaker 8: we think we're going to probably see that. So with

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Speaker 8: the market we call it, we're transitioning to show me

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Speaker 8: from scare me, and I think the next quarter or two,

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Speaker 8: which is a long time in Wall Street Brothers a

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Speaker 8: long time, the next quarter or two, I think we

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Speaker 8: need to see earning growth come in and then we'll

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Speaker 8: feel better about returning to our boal caase at sixty

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Speaker 8: seven hundred.

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Speaker 6: To get to it, you know, a sixty seven hundred target.

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Speaker 6: Does tech have to be a leadership category?

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Speaker 8: Brian, that's a great question. Yes and no, we don't

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Speaker 8: think MEG seven needs to be leadership.

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Speaker 9: MAKES seven is all about liquidity.

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Speaker 8: You know, Tom and I talk about the nineties and

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Speaker 8: these these stocks are the new consumer staple sacks. As

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Speaker 8: we talked about these big cap, these megacap tech stocks.

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Speaker 8: We're technically underweight the MACS seven because we own zero

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Speaker 8: a Meta in our eleven billion dollars that we run

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Speaker 8: for BEMO. But I think it's going to come from

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Speaker 8: other areas of tech, whether or not it's bottom fishing

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Speaker 8: and AMD or the great fundamental story of Pallenteer or

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Speaker 8: buying the dip in Palo Alto today, which the major

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Speaker 8: theme of AI we think going forward is cybersecurity. It's

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Speaker 8: maybe moving down in cap to a cyber arc with

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Speaker 8: respect to cyber secure already and even Oracle. Oracle's not

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Speaker 8: in the MAKE seven, but we're talking about a multi

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Speaker 8: billion dollar company with a fantastic balance sheet and a

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Speaker 8: great software company. So I think it's going to be

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Speaker 8: other areas and tech call that I'll perform, and that's

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Speaker 8: why we continue to be all perform or overweight.

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Speaker 9: I'm sorry with respect to the technology sector.

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Speaker 6: So, Brian, it seems like again the volatility that we've

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Speaker 6: seen here in you know, the first five months or

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Speaker 6: so of the years, really come out of Washington, DC

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Speaker 6: with economic policy, trade policy just kind of bringing in

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Speaker 6: level of certainty to the markets. I'm not sure that's

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Speaker 6: going to necessarily change going forward. How do you kind

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Speaker 6: of come to grips with what is still going to

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Speaker 6: be a higher tiriff environment out there?

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Speaker 8: Right That's one of the points that we make in

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Speaker 8: terms of our sign posts. Markets have to stop reacting

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Speaker 8: to every little thing out of walls, arms, storry Washington,

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Speaker 8: whether or it's good, bad, or indifferent. And once we

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Speaker 8: kind of get back to quote unquote business and normalcy,

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Speaker 8: I think we'll feel better about the bull market, which

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Speaker 8: we remember we're still big, giant, secular twenty five year

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Speaker 8: bull market. But again, given this uncertainty, I think too

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Speaker 8: many people are trying to make the big call and

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Speaker 8: go right back up to seven thousand on the market

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Speaker 8: with the market needs some work to do.

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Speaker 9: It doesn't mean we're not bullish, we need to see

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Speaker 9: some fundamental work.

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Speaker 4: Brian Belsk in the excess where I live, folks, he's

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Speaker 4: with BMO Capital Markets.

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Speaker 6: Hey, Brian, I'm looking at what we haven't talked about

444
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 6: a lot really this year, with all the talk on terrafs,

445
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 6: we haven't talked about the Federal reserve and interest rate

446
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 6: policy here. Do we need the Fed to be accommodative

447
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 6: here for this market to work?

448
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,200
Speaker 9: I don't think so. And I think that's really the

449
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 9: secret sauce there, Paul.

450
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 8: I mean, I think at the end of the day,

451
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 8: the end of quantitative tightening, rates are still low relative

452
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:51,159
Speaker 8: to history, the SET has a dual mandate. Employment remains

453
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 8: very strong. Remember, employment is the leggingest of all indicators,

454
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 8: that always happens last. And then on the inflation Sideys

455
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 8: you're talking about SET. We'll see how PCE and all

456
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,199
Speaker 8: that kind of comes in going forward.

457
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 9: But I think the Fed is done.

458
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,679
Speaker 8: I actually I'm one that says the Fed's actually done

459
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 8: a pretty good job. And so I don't think that

460
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 8: we don't need an interest rate cut for the markets

461
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 8: to go up.

462
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,719
Speaker 6: What do we need in terms of I don't know,

463
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 6: just from the companies themselves help. Do we need for

464
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 6: these companies to step up and say we have better visibility,

465
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 6: more visibility, any visibility on our earnings Because the first

466
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,360
Speaker 6: quarter was kind of characterized as a lot of companies, rightfully,

467
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 6: So just saying we don't know what's going on out.

468
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 8: There, right and that's part of our sign posts that

469
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 8: we need to see guidance and earnings kind of growth

470
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 8: numbers come back meaning to show me side of thanks, Paul,

471
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 8: And I do think obviously first quarter the majority of

472
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 8: earnings didn't have terre for related type of issues. But

473
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 8: at the end of the day, we want to see

474
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 8: companies that have strong operating results, that operate from the

475
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,880
Speaker 8: bottoms up bases very strongly, and have some guidance to say, hey,

476
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 8: you know what tariffs, tariff's mariffs, We're still going to

477
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 8: have very strong and steady earnings. And oh, by the way,

478
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:02,679
Speaker 8: you know what you get what you pay for, and

479
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 8: you know what you're paying for in US stocks, And

480
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 8: so I think that's going to be the theme for

481
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 8: the second half of the year.

482
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: Brian, have we ever seen retail and institutions so far? Apart?

483
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 3: I mean I got retail buying the dip that's others

484
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 3: to it. Belski's going to these.

485
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 4: Florida, you know, Caribbean Island stock conventions. You know people

486
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 4: are daytrading off their laptops. Why Bellski's given them pro tips.

487
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 3: Okay, retail's all in. Brian institutions aren't. Has it ever

488
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 3: been this.

489
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 8: Nuts great question, it's been On the other side, I

490
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 8: would say I remember having very complex and aggressive conversations

491
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 8: with private wealth in March April of twenty twenty. Institutions

492
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 8: were still late in getting out Tom, and I think

493
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 8: also too, I go back also to October of two thousand,

494
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 8: where retail was the opposite side. Retail was all in,

495
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 8: completely all in, and you start to see the technology

496
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 8: crack a little bit. In the US, foreign investors were

497
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 8: still very, very aggressive. I quite frankly hate the notion

498
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 8: of retail's dumb money and institutionals smart money.

499
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 9: That's actually the opposite.

500
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 8: It's actually the opposite, and I think that's part and

501
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 8: parcel Tom quite frankly to what happened in the late nineties,

502
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 8: because retail private wealth really learned their lesson to be

503
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 8: two overexposing stocks and a wealth manager has done a

504
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 8: wonderful job kind of diversifying.

505
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 9: So I think that's the dumb money.

506
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 8: It's actually the hedge funds and the short term money

507
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 8: that's trying to change these momentum moves that Oh, by

508
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 8: the way, they've been wrong.

509
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 4: Is that because they have access to leverage. I mean,

510
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 4: there was a white paper years ago. Sorry folks, I

511
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 4: can't cite it that if you get out over two

512
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 4: point eight to one or three to one leverage, things

513
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 4: fall apart. I mean, it's just about institutions are leveraged up,

514
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 4: and that's where they get into trouble.

515
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:53,719
Speaker 9: I think it's part leverage, quite frankly.

516
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 8: But it also, I think too, is that institutions they

517
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 8: owned too many stocks in these big portfolios and they

518
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 8: haven't made the right bets. And I think that they're

519
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 8: chasing momentum quite frankly, and there there's not a lot

520
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 8: of independent thought. When I go on to talk to

521
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 8: a bank institution, Tom and Paul and I start talking

522
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 8: about stock picking, it's like their their eyes gloss over,

523
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 8: because for the most part they're just kind of chasing

524
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 8: the momentum. They don't really want to talk about operating

525
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 8: performance and management and product and service. So I think

526
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 8: that's kind of the rule we're in. And oh, by

527
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 8: the way, retail I e. Private wealth, they love stories.

528
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 8: They want to talk stories about stocks, and institutions forgot

529
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 8: have kind of forgotten how to take stories.

530
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 4: Really really, that's really really interesting. I'll have to have

531
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 4: you back for that. I got one final question. Knicker Pacers.

532
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 9: Next, come on with the Wolves choke last night.

533
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 8: I want to see I want to see the cat

534
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 8: taking on it's old their old team, the Wolves.

535
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 9: So we got to get going.

536
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 3: Brian Belski, thank you so much.

537
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 4: Bemont Capital at Markets, Thank you, Nicholas rocking Over for writing.

538
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 2: Everything else Elsey does.

539
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 3: Of course, he's just he's writing around in a rolls. Nick,

540
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 3: let's do something on this. Okay, we'll do that. Brian Belski,

541
00:23:58,680 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 3: thank you so much. We'll get them back.

542
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 4: That's a really important discussion, Paul about retail institution.

543
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

544
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

545
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live

546
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,199
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

547
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty The Quick.

548
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 3: Visit right now. He is at EO Law School.

549
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 4: He invented Morgan Stanley Economic Stephen Rohatch joins us with

550
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 4: his decades of study of China Stephen. I was reading

551
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 4: Ken Rogoff last night, my book of the Summer Our

552
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 4: Dollar Year Problem, and there's one page in the last

553
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 4: chapter on China where he makes clear everything changed with

554
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: President g the totalitarian sense of it, the inwards sense

555
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 4: of it. It's the premier, the president and his buddies.

556
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 4: Do we understand that in our negotiations with China, the

557
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 4: unique character of this regime in Beijing.

558
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 10: First of all, Tom, thank you for talking to me.

559
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 10: Making your intro makes me sound a little bit like

560
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 10: Thomas Edison. But with respect to Ken's point, I would

561
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 10: respectfully disagree. China has been on a trajectory that has

562
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 10: been pointing in this direction really since the late seventies

563
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 10: and post Mao Dungshao Ping. China under Sijenping. Things have

564
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:40,719
Speaker 10: certainly crystallized much more around an authoritarian, single leader dominated system.

565
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 10: But the trend of economic policy, state directed industrial policy,

566
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 10: repressed consumption, an unbalanced Chinese economy increasingly at odds with

567
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 10: the rest of the world. That has been evident for

568
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 10: a long time prior to the ascendancy of Shijinping.

569
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 6: So Steven, I mean there is a period there where

570
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 6: China was really embracing the West and vice versa, and

571
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 6: there's a lot of optimism for mutual growth.

572
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 7: Are the people of China?

573
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 6: Are they comfortable with where they are now and where

574
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 6: President She is taking this economy.

575
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 10: Look, I've written books about US China codependency, the relationship

576
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 10: that was initially constructive from perspective of both countries relying

577
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 10: on each other. And I think the people of China

578
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 10: that I speak to and I still go there on

579
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 10: a regular basis, would love nothing better than to go

580
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 10: back to that comfortable codependency. But the leaders, the political

581
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 10: leaders of both nations, and in the case of the US,

582
00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 10: I wouldn't just single out the president most importantly, I

583
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 10: emphasized the US Congress don't see it that way anymore,

584
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 10: and the Chinese people don't fully understand what has changed

585
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 10: to alter that balance.

586
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 4: Stephen Roach with us with you law school, we will

587
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,959
Speaker 4: continue here futures negative thirty three, doubt futures at negative

588
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 4: three to thirty in the Vicks eighteen point five eight.

589
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 4: Doctor Roach, I think that within your travels and you

590
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 4: were in China, off.

591
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 3: What have you observed, What's changed?

592
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 4: What has changed in the modern China versus the years

593
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 4: ago getting off the airplane and seeing that giant Morgan

594
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 4: Stanley's sign at Hong Kong's airport.

595
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 10: Well, first of all, the sign has gone, and.

596
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 3: It so is the chief Economist.

597
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 10: Yeah, that happened after I left Asia and came back.

598
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,239
Speaker 10: It would still be there if I was still in

599
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 10: Hong Kong. But look, what's changed a lot is China's

600
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 10: rise as a a superpower, driven largely by extraordinary progress

601
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 10: in technology and what chi Jin Pink calls, you know,

602
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 10: new high quality productive forces. What has not changed is

603
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 10: that China has been unable to stimulate internal private consumption.

604
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 4: Why not, let's stop there. That's important. This has been

605
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 4: for year, stevehen you wrote about this with Richard Berner

606
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 4: years ago. Why can't they stimulate consumption?

607
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 10: Well, but the main reason in my few time is

608
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 10: they just don't have a robust social safety net healthcare

609
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 10: and pensions. And what that means is that, you know,

610
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 10: Chinese people, when they earn money from working, they save

611
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 10: it because of a fear of an uncertain future. And

612
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 10: that fear driven precautionary saving means that an incremental rem

613
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 10: and bee of of income goes into saving. They've got

614
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 10: a personal savings rate that's over thirty percent, the highest

615
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 10: in the world.

616
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 6: So, Stephen, what is your view of the I don't

617
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 6: know one to three year economic outlook for China because

618
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 6: that will have an impact on the global economy.

619
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:23,719
Speaker 10: Well, I think the outlook is worrisome. China, because of

620
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 10: this sort of stemied rebalancing, is still heavily dependent on exports.

621
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 10: Exports are about twenty percent of their GDP. Their largest

622
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 10: trading partner remains the United States, even though the US

623
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 10: share has fallen significantly since the first round of Trump tariffs.

624
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 10: So they're going to get hit by this external demand

625
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 10: shock emanating from the US exacerbated by Trump's tariffs, and

626
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 10: the risks are on the downside.

627
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 4: Steve Roach, don't be strange. You're too short of visit.

628
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 4: We greatly appreciate it. With the Yale University where he's

629
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 4: never he gives out seas, it's.

630
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 3: Always tough solids, you know, you know, getting him beef doctor.

631
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 3: It's it's very hard to do. Stephen Roach, thank you.

632
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 4: I can't say enough about some of his efforts in

633
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 4: writing on China. I'll get those out on LinkedIn and

634
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 4: Twitter here as well.

635
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

636
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

637
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

638
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

639
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

640
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 4: Well, Mamadalarian, the zeitgeist was out there, but Larian nails

641
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 4: it with a tweet that this has been under reported

642
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 4: this morning in the United States United Kingdom service sector

643
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 4: inflation up up up. They were looking for three point

644
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 4: three percent, and their UK inflation statistic came in in

645
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 4: a lofty three point five percent in April. That bears

646
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 4: close close watching and goes over to Paul Sweeney's thirty year.

647
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 3: Bond, which is my eyes are failing me right now.

648
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 3: There it is five.

649
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:11,959
Speaker 4: Point zero two percent the Joiney's right now. And you know,

650
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 4: I got to be honest, folks. I got the two

651
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 4: O one K and the two one k is with Empower,

652
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 4: and I could go in and they got when I

653
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 4: log in, they got a bright but they got a

654
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 4: blinking red light. Stupid put in more money exactly. Thank

655
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 4: you Empower for that. Empower keeping track of all the

656
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 4: retirement plans for all of us at BLOOMBERGILP, and we

657
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,719
Speaker 4: say thank you. They went out and got Martin Norton

658
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 4: to be their investment strategist. What's it like being an

659
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 4: investment strategist where we don't care what you think may

660
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 4: is going to be? Like, we're looking at a three year,

661
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 4: a five year, a ten year perspective.

662
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 3: How do you ride along the empower line?

663
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 11: Well, you know, I think what's really valuable to the

664
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 11: retirement market to I would say individual investors broadly is

665
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 11: making sure that the focus is on the fundamentals. I

666
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 11: think there's so much noise out there from kind of

667
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 11: data point to data point, headline to headline, and it

668
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 11: can really have an emotional toll on people. And so

669
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 11: my orientation with empower, whether it's the well side of

670
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 11: the business, whether it's the retirement business, is to understand

671
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 11: and you know, aim to understand what's happening with the

672
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 11: fundamentals and how should that drive their views.

673
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 3: But your charm is your morning star.

674
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 4: If you live the certitude of a five star fund

675
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 4: that all of a sudden stumbled and became a three

676
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 4: star fund, how do you get long term investment in

677
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 4: a select group of funds?

678
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 3: Correct?

679
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 11: Okay, So that's that's a great question. And of course,

680
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 11: I think if you're looking at the data, a big

681
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 11: part of it is the expenses equation. If you're trying

682
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 11: to think through kind of what's going to drive performance

683
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 11: over time?

684
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 3: Can she read's book?

685
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 11: You do want to keep those costs down, right, That's

686
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 11: that's your one certainty in terms of what you're paying.

687
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 11: You want to keep that as low as you can.

688
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 11: But I also think my kind of grounding at morning

689
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 11: Star one of the biggest takeaways that I had, you know,

690
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 11: to your point, I grew up as an investor at

691
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 11: morning Star. It was the importance of an investment philosophy,

692
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 11: having a point of view, a framework that would help

693
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 11: you distill what's happening in the markets and make determinations

694
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 11: going forward. If you look at, you know, kind of

695
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 11: the most successful strategies out there, they're not successful in

696
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 11: every environment, but they have a touchstone that they return to,

697
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 11: and I think those touchstones are really important to navigating

698
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 11: shopping markets.

699
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 6: So what does your investment outlook, your strategy for twenty

700
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 6: twenty five or we've had a lot of volatility here big,

701
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 6: you know, out of twenty percent draw down in the market,

702
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 6: retraced a lot of that here, but it's kind of

703
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 6: driven by not so much the fundamentals of company A

704
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 6: or company B, but kind of trade policy out of Washington, DC.

705
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 7: And I'm I'm certainy, So how do you guys talk

706
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 7: to your clients about that?

707
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:50,239
Speaker 9: Well?

708
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 11: You know, it's funny because back, you know, pre election,

709
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 11: a lot of the commentary I was putting out was that,

710
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 11: you know, you don't your your portfolio is not dependent

711
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 11: on in Washington or what's in control or kind of

712
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 11: how you feel politically about things. And yet we head

713
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 11: into twenty twenty five and it's been the year of

714
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 11: fiscal policy, and it's been decisions out of Washington that

715
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 11: have caused kind of the ups and downs of the market.

716
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 11: We entered twenty twenty five talking a lot about valuation

717
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 11: and really concerned about the economy, and our estimations seemed

718
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 11: reasonably healthy, but the valuations seemed high, especially in the

719
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 11: mag seven, and so that was our greatest risk factor.

720
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 11: And it seems like we've lived nine lives since the

721
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 11: start of twenty twenty five, right, And so the valuation

722
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,879
Speaker 11: picture changed and then changed again. And I guess if

723
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 11: I think back to that outlook at twenty twenty five

724
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 11: and where we stand today. One of the biggest changes

725
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 11: has been where the MAG seven is. The broad market

726
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,479
Speaker 11: looks expensive like it did back then, but the MAG

727
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 11: seven looked cheap, and that was a surprise to me

728
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 11: because my expectation was that MAG seven dictated the market.

729
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 4: Is with all your work, are we over diversified in

730
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 4: our four case?

731
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 3: Peter Lynch was really good on this fidelity. Are there

732
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 3: are there just too many things in our four one case?

733
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 11: Well, I mean that depends on kind of how you're

734
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 11: you know, if you're picking your own strategies, if you're

735
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 11: picking your own investments within your four one K, then

736
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 11: you know, it all depends on kind of come on

737
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:20,720
Speaker 11: four things.

738
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 3: Paul can pick him. He's smarter than me.

739
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 4: And the answer is we got advisors out there that

740
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 4: is saying you need forty two things in your four

741
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 4: and okay, it causes angst and empower.

742
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 11: People get older him over there, there is a you

743
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 11: know there was there's kind of like a retail market

744
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 11: that follows the endowment market. The endowment like approach where

745
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 11: you had to have a very diversified, you know, healthy

746
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 11: selection of all these various investments. But I would say

747
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 11: the average you know, retail investor still it's still a

748
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 11: sixty forty split stock bonds. It's still kind of a

749
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 11: vanilla approach to the market. So I wouldn't say that,

750
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 11: you know, my impression of the average war one K

751
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 11: investor is that they're too diversified, though I think there

752
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 11: is that, you know, argument that people are trying to

753
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 11: put a lot of stuff.

754
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 7: Importantly is how about fixed income here?

755
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 6: I mean again, Tom and I talk about to two

756
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:08,760
Speaker 6: year treasury at four percent?

757
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 7: Do we it's not a bad way to make a

758
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 7: living it.

759
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 11: We take some credit risk here, So I think it's

760
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 11: kind of an interesting market. One of the things that

761
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 11: we've called for twenty twenty five is a year for

762
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:23,359
Speaker 11: coupon clipping. That idea of capital appreciation coming from your

763
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 11: fixed income. It's just harder to get behind that when

764
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 11: you think of the inflation forces, or the deficit forces

765
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 11: or everything that kind of is putting a floor potentially

766
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 11: under the yield curve. Now that felt like that was

767
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,839
Speaker 11: potentially the wrong view earlier in the year, but we're

768
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 11: back to that situation right where people are focused on

769
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 11: the deficit and they're thinking about yields and kind of

770
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 11: a range bound mindset rather than you know, necessarily falling

771
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 11: from here. I think one thing that's really important, and

772
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 11: this has been a shift, has been thinking about as

773
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 11: you're looking for capital preservation as an individual investor, not

774
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 11: just going to the AG or the core bond space,

775
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 11: but thinking about that breath of the yield curve and

776
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 11: having some of the shorter dated securities in your portfolio.

777
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 11: They have a very different risk profile. That inflation risk

778
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 11: is not the same, the rate risk is not the same.

779
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 11: They showed that in twenty twenty two and they've shown

780
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 11: it since, and so I think that breath is a

781
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 11: really important element for construction.

782
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 7: How do you guys think about alternatives? I mean, it's

783
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 7: become such a big part of the average ria that

784
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 7: we go talk to.

785
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's not five percent of the allocation. It's a

786
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 6: lot bigger.

787
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 2: It's a lot bigger.

788
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 7: And I'm surprised by that. Whether it's private equity, private debt,

789
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 7: hedge funds. How do you guys think about that?

790
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 11: Yeah, so empower is moving into or allowing partnering with

791
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 11: alts in the private equity sense. But I guess when

792
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 11: I think about your question, I want to expand on

793
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 11: it a little bit because I think the word alternative

794
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 11: is such a catch all, and it's important to define

795
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 11: what we mean by alternative. So if we're thinking about

796
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 11: something like private equity, I think the real case for

797
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 11: private equity, of course is the breath, the broader exposure

798
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 11: to the US equity market. But I think the operative

799
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 11: word is equity. This is equity like exposure, and so

800
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 11: you have to size it accordingly. You have public equity

801
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 11: in your portfolio, so you have to think about that

802
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 11: as you're looking at at private equity.

803
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 3: Are you in Chicago? Are you in Winnipeg, Chicago, chic

804
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 3: your deep deep South?

805
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,720
Speaker 4: Okay, within Power. Thank you so much, Buda Norton, greatly

806
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,399
Speaker 4: appreciate it. Strategist Power.

807
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

808
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

809
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

810
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

811
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

812
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 3: Right now with the newspapers.

813
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: Who else but Lisa went all right?

814
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 12: This is from the Wall Street Journal. This is a

815
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 12: really interesting look at the real estate market in New

816
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 12: York City. It looks like downtown is actually the new

817
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 12: uptown for the rich and the wealthy. That's where they're

818
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 12: going now. The city right the most expensive real estate

819
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 12: has traditionally been like Billionaire's Row, Central Park, West, Upper

820
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 12: east Side, but now things are changing. Listings below fourteenth

821
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 12: Street are actually starting to compete with it. A lot

822
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,439
Speaker 12: of things firms, a lot of tech firms, finding firms

823
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 12: are moving down there, more retail parks moving down there.

824
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 12: New luxury condo developments along the West Side Highway, you've

825
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,760
Speaker 12: seen them, West Village, Tribeca, Chelsea. And that's the reason

826
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 12: why they say there were more than more thirty million

827
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 12: dollar plus home sales below thirty fourth Street in the

828
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 12: past five years than in the previous decade.

829
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 6: I did read that argument in the Adournale, and some

830
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 6: of the places had there were spectacularacular eighty.

831
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 2: Five million, like big, big bag.

832
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 6: But I was on the Upper west Side last night

833
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 6: walking around. That's still that is a great place to live.

834
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 6: I always felt comfortable up there. It's it's nice. I

835
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 6: lived on the Upper East back in the day, but

836
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 6: upper I don't know.

837
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 7: This city's a great place to be.

838
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 4: Damian says Or sent me this morning thanking Natalie Wong.

839
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,240
Speaker 4: The IBM building, which is a lovely black brand building

840
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:55,760
Speaker 4: at Madison in fifty six, is sold one point.

841
00:39:55,600 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 3: One billion new top tick. Oh taking it out. There's

842
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 3: a spirit here to it within the lump.

843
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 4: And I actually saw a restaurant yesterday doing the curb thing.

844
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 7: Oh yes, the outdoor dining next to you.

845
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 12: That is the season football could have its own version

846
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 12: of the US Olympic Dream Team. Not traditional football. We're

847
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 12: talking flag football, okay, but the NFL team owners. What

848
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:21,800
Speaker 12: they did is they proved this resolution it could allow

849
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 12: those pro players to participate in flag football at the

850
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 12: twenty twenty eight Olympics in Los Angeles. So it's really

851
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 12: you've seen the NFL they've been pushing to make all

852
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 12: around the world, they do, but not in the Olympics.

853
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 7: They haven't laid they play flag football in Japan or Italy.

854
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 2: I don't know.

855
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 12: Well, now we'll find.

856
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 2: Eight at the Olympics.

857
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 12: But they're just trying to get you know that the

858
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 12: NFL has been pushing to get them on this global stage.

859
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 12: So this is really a good way for them. But

860
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 12: I mean there's still more talks that have to be done, right,

861
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,840
Speaker 12: you have to talk about injuries, thing to consider, so

862
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 12: they have to negotiate all.

863
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 7: This is what I understand. That's like kind of the mass.

864
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 12: One player parteam okay, and a couple of players have

865
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 12: expressed interest. Patrick Mahomes does.

866
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 3: He'll do it when thea Olympics.

867
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 12: Twenty twenty eight.

868
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 7: So we have a field couple of years, a couple

869
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 7: of years.

870
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 4: Featuring the fire and just LA and the sprawl. You know,

871
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 4: good morning Los Angeles in your early morning. They got

872
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 4: time to make it happen.

873
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 6: Yes, and they've gotten most of the venues, most of

874
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 6: the infrastructure there already. That's why you like go into

875
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 6: LA and Salt Lake for example.

876
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 2: You have one more of this one I do? Okay.

877
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 12: So this there's an item from Lulu Lemon. It is

878
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 12: all the talking social media, okay. It has nothing to

879
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 12: do with working out either or leg it.

880
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: Yes, okay. So it is there.

881
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 12: Two in one maxi dress, so two in one because

882
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 12: it can be used as a strapless dress and a

883
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,800
Speaker 12: long skirt. Miss Kean would love this. It's one hundred

884
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 12: and forty eight dollars for colors. She can choose from.

885
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,760
Speaker 12: It's great. But the thing is is that it's getting

886
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 12: kind of backlash too because people are saying one hundred

887
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 12: and forty eight dollars for you know, a long dress. Expensive,

888
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 12: but it's Lululemon.

889
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:02,919
Speaker 2: You have to think about that too.

890
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 12: And they love the versatility, how soft it is.

891
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 7: It can be worn as a skirt when its top

892
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 7: is folded over.

893
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 4: Hips, Editors, how did this story gets you.

894
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 3: The gauntlet of surveillance editors?

895
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 7: It's on the houseless Now you go on.

896
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 3: Anything else you'd like to. Is there a bag that

897
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 3: you know what's happening for you right now?

898
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 7: Oh?

899
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:25,399
Speaker 2: You know what?

900
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 12: No, Actually, this will be it, This will be this

901
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 12: will be my thing for the summer. This is what

902
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 12: you wear on the beach, around the streets of New

903
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 12: York City. It's the mini maxi dress.

904
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 4: And we'll do the newspapers tomorrow, I think Lisa Matato,

905
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 4: thank you so much, greatly appreciated.

906
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

907
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:48,560
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908
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:52,440
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909
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:56,400
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910
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,760
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911
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,080
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