WEBVTT - Martin Wolf on the 'Terrifying' Superpower That the US Wields 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:01.599 Hello, odd Logs listeners. 0:00:01.639 --> 0:00:03.920 I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Allaway. 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:06.720 Tracy, We're going to be doing another live show, this 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:09.200 time once again in our hometown of New York City. 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:12.480 That's right on the evening of May twenty eighth, from 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:16.120 seven pm. We will be at Citywinery with a fantastic 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:17.560 lineup of guests. 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:19.439 Yeah, I really like our live show. There are a 0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:22.560 great chance to meet the listeners. There are chants for 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:25.159 listeners to meet us and actually, more importantly, listeners to 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.360 hang out with other listeners and you know, all that 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:28.360 community stuff. 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:31.080 But if you would like all that community stuff, and 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:31.520 I think. 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:33.239 We're going to talk a lot about the future of 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:35.839 trading because of that is a very New York City topic. 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:39.320 Still figuring out the exact schedule, but yes, if you'd 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.120 like to come to our live odd Lauge show at 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:44.600 City Winery in New York City on May twenty eighth, 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:47.880 go find details at bloomberg dot com, slash odd loads 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:50.199 or look on either one of our Twitter handles. There 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:53.000 are plenty of spaces to find it, and we'd love 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:53.560 to see you there. 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:58.600 That's right, Get offline and interact with some actual human 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:00.880 beings and do some of that commute stuff. We look 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:01.960 forward to seeing you there. 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:04.000 IRL is the new URL. 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:19.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:26.280 Hello and welcome to another episode of the Audults podcast. 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:27.720 I'm Tracy Alloway. 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:28.720 And I'm Joe Wisenthal. 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.000 Joe, we're back in London. 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:34.800 We're making a tradition back in London. We're here last spring. 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:36.880 That last year is April. At this time it's May. 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.520 But I like the idea, let's do a recurring spring 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:40.279 trip to London. 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:42.800 Now, when you're in London, do you feel the urge 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:46.240 to sort of stroke your beard and think about geopolitics? 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:51.440 Can I say, well, yes for sure. But as you 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:56.520 can confirm anytime there's like some big you know, there's 0:01:56.640 --> 0:02:00.960 something feels pivotal or historical, geopolitical. I turned to you 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:03.040 in the office, I say, you know what we really need. 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:07.040 We really need like an episode with an old guy 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.280 with a British accent, like some moments. That's just what 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:11.040 it calls for. 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:11.680 You gave the. 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:14.520 Secret away, you gave the secret all blots of books. 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.760 Who it is per save is like there's a certain 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:20.320 type of guests that's like this is what this moment 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:23.120 calls for some with wisdom, someone with perspective. 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:25.399 All right, well you've given it away at this point, 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:28.120 but we are back here for our yearly check in 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:31.239 with Martin Wolf, who is, of course the chief economics 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.640 commentator over at the Financial Times, one of the most 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:38.960 famous geopolitics geoeconomics commentators of all time, and someone who 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:41.600 is really good to talk to when we're living through 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:47.000 these potentially historic capital h historic events on what seems 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.720 to be more than a yearly basis at this point. 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:51.480 So the last time we spoke to him was in 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:53.960 April of twenty twenty five, and it was just after 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.480 the Liberation Day tariff announcements. Now we're here in May 0:02:57.560 --> 0:03:00.880 twenty twenty six, and we have the Iran situation going on, 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:06.200 we have headlines about further fracturing of US europe relations. 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:10.679 I mean, all of these potential potentially pivotal moments seem 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:13.120 to be happening on a sort of monthly, if not 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:14.720 weekly basis at this point. 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:18.080 Absolutely right. And as you mentioned, when we were here 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:21.040 last year, it was in the immediate wake I mean, 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.360 I think maybe even just a week after the or 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:27.600 a few days after the Liberation Day tariff schedule had 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:29.960 come out, it was still during that period of absolutely 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.320 insane volatility, and there is a sense in which, I mean, 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:38.000 the pure volatility currently is not actually like it was 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:41.400 back then. But at the same time, perhaps probably because 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:44.960 we're in the middle of a war ceasefire aside, April 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.520 twenty twenty five feels a little quaint compared to where 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:48.520 we are right now. 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:52.280 Isn't that something? I mean, everything's relative, I guess. Okay, Well, 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.360 on that note, why don't we bring in our perfect guest, 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:59.400 older gentleman, older British gentleman with a British accent per 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:03.080 Joe's description, Martin Wolf, thank you so much for coming 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:04.240 back on odd lauds. 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:07.360 Well, I'm very glad to fill a niche I didn't 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:08.160 know you had. 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.640 You truly are the perfect guest, though, because you know, 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.240 I again, a lot of people have described you as 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:17.200 one of the most important economics commentators of all time, 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:18.960 and so I think it's great that we get you 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.920 back to opine on some of these very big events 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:25.720 that we're seeing. Speaking of large events, you have described 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:31.440 the Iran situation as a nightmare scenario. Walk us through 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:33.400 what you're thinking there, because when I look at some 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:35.760 of the headlines around markets at the moment, S and 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:39.720 P five hundred closed at a record on Friday, it 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:43.800 doesn't seem like markets are aligned with that particular point 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:44.800 of view. What's going on? 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:50.560 Well, I suppose the so many different things aspects of this. 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:55.120 I've been thinking of this wonderful Shakespearean line, life being 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:58.479 a tale told by any an idiot, full of sound 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:04.240 and fury, signified nothing. So one feels that when markets 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.200 are looking at this, they feel this is full of 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:11.000 sound and fury, but it doesn't signify anything. And I 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:16.000 think two possible reasons for that. One is the famous 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:21.200 taco line from my dear colleague Robert Armstrong that Trump 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:24.240 all with chickens out. So in the end, he's not 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:26.280 going to blow up the world. He's going to find 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:30.159 a way out of this, which will have done some damage. 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:33.000 It will make I think the. 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:38.280 US look fairly ridiculous, but it can be forgotten, declare 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:41.080 victory and stop, And I think that's still perfectly possible, 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:45.599 a perfectly reasonable view, because he's already sort of stopped 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:49.520 the fighting, and it feels like he's looking desperately for 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:52.200 an endgame. The question is whether the other side will 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:56.200 play ball, and that is still to be seen. And 0:05:56.240 --> 0:06:02.159 then there's the other possibility that in the end, if 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:08.159 the oil were lost, as it were everever, the world will. 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:08.600 Adjust to that. 0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:15.640 Yes, the output that goes through the straits is very large, 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:18.200 but in the longer run a lot of it can 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:20.760 go through pipelines. They can build these. It will take 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:24.360 quite a while, and the world can compress this demand 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:28.080 in time. It might take a few years. The world 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:31.280 growth will be lower, but what we're losing is about 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:34.520 a fifth world output. Oil is much less important than 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:38.760 it used to be seventy years ago. Prices have risen, 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:42.880 but actually, if you look at real terms of the 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:46.239 long history of oil prices since the first oil shot, 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:50.800 they're not sensationally high, and so we will adjust to it, 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:53.400 and we're very good at adjusting to it. The Gulf 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.599 will end up as a different place because it won't 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.599 be exporting the same way, but it's not enough to 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:04.960 derail the world economy. And incidentally, the country that is 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:07.800 likely to be the least damage of the major ones 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:10.800 is the US, which is not a coincidence. After all, 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:13.080 they wouldn't have started it if that weren't at the 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:17.760 back of their minds. China will be damaged. Russia is benefiting, 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:19.920 but I don't think that's going to bother mister Trump. 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.720 So in the end, the losers are Europe and China, 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:28.240 not favorite, if favorite countries. I think that on the whole, 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:31.920 mister Trump prefers China to the Europe. But the and 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:35.560 the world economy will continue, and there's this huge technological 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:38.480 upheaval going on, which is very much what the markets 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:42.600 they're talking about, which looks transformative. So I think the 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:47.080 market's assumption that the profitability of companies is going to 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:50.720 be fine. The world will have possibly a recession, but 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.520 that's not the end of the world. World as recessions 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:57.320 probably not even zero growth, and life goes off. 0:07:57.520 --> 0:08:01.520 When you I'm glad that when you Shakespeare and sounded 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:05.320 furious signifying nothing, you were not referring to our conversations, 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:08.960 et cetera. Always something though that I'm anxious about with 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.800 respect to our business, because we type and talk and 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:13.920 it's like, what doesn't really matter all. 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:14.760 That big said. 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.800 You mentioned the profitability of companies and if profits stay high, 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:22.320 let stock stay high, and it's all very explicable. One 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.960 has to admit, or you have to admit, like sitting 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.280 here today recording this may forth, you have to admit. 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:30.880 It's pretty surprising, isn't it, Like if you knew all 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:33.480 the headlines over the last year and a half between 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:40.320 Liberation Day and a subpoena for Chairman Powell and this 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:44.600 war the early existence is pretty surprising. 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:47.040 Yeah, this is what I don't get. So I think 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:49.240 I mentioned this the last time we spoke, but both 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:52.200 Joe and I did international relations at university and we 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:54.600 were told over and over again that the global economy 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:57.520 does not like instability, it doesn't like chaos, and yet 0:08:57.559 --> 0:08:59.760 here we are in the midst of a lot of chaos, 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:01.760 and things are more or less chugging along. 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:08.280 Yes, I think that's right, and there's been a greater 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:13.559 disconnect that I would have expected. And so I have 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:17.679 more than once used another famous quote from a British author. 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.520 Of course, it has to be given the intro Adam Smith. 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:23.880 Adam Smith, there's. 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:26.680 A great deal of ruin in a country, which was, 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.400 if I remember correctly, actually said in response to somebody 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:34.600 saying that the loss of the American colonies was a tragedy, 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:38.800 a catastrophe for this country, and I think that's the context. 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.240 I believe that's the context in which you said there's 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:43.400 a great deal of ruin in a country, so there's 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:46.360 a great deal of ruining the world economy. I have 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:50.680 a favorite statistic which I use in many of my 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.160 presentations because it surprised me so much when I looked 0:09:53.160 --> 0:10:01.319 at it. So since nineteen fifty on the data, Angus Madison. 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:01.640 Must be right. 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:06.000 There have only been two years in which the world 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:12.200 economy shrank two and they're both perfectly obvious. One was 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:17.400 two thousand and nine, and even then he crank barely. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:21.360 It was close to zero because China was still growing, 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:23.720 lots of countries were still growing. And the other was 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:27.840 the pandemic twenty twenty. Otherwise, the world economy grows and 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:32.079 nearly always between two and four percent. It's changed over time. 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:38.079 Why well, because everybody, everybody matters is in a growth mode. 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:41.000 I could go through what's driving it. I looked at 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:44.920 this actually after the pandemic, I thought, how often is 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:49.120 it that we've had a genuine recession a decline in GDP. 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:52.000 Now this isn't GDB behead. There will be more often 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:56.160 times when GDB per head shrank. But basically, the world 0:10:56.200 --> 0:11:02.800 economy is unbelievably robust, and that's because lots of people 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:08.120 are providing stuff people want. There are markets they produce 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.319 for the markets, they invest to produce for the markets. 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.120 Investment is very important as a driver in demand, as 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:19.120 Kine said, and so it takes something really enormous to 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.800 stop it. I went through the two oil shops of 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:25.040 the seventies. I was already working economists, and they were 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:27.920 big shops, and we got terrible inflation and all the 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:31.040 rest of it. Volka came along, and yes he did 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:33.360 cause a recession in the US, but it wasn't global. 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:36.840 So I think we have to start off by saying 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:40.520 the world economy is incredibly resilient. The second thing is 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.560 that and that's why I use the full of sound 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:47.960 and fury. If you look at the actual policies that 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:52.360 we've ended up with, they're sort of designed that I'm 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:56.360 sure they're not intent, not really to hurt, so the 0:11:56.400 --> 0:12:01.360 protection is very uneven. This was part of I wrote 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:05.160 about this before he Trump got into office, and that 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:10.000 creates the opportunity is designed in the system for trade diversion. 0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:13.280 Right now, if he just put up an average tariff 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:15.720 of forty percent or thirty five percent, a lot of 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:17.600 trade would disappear, but that's not what he did. 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:19.559 He ended up with. 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.800 Imposing very high tariffs on some some. 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:24.920 Origins. 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:28.400 China still has very high terriffs, but it's the trade 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:32.400 diversion has been phenomenal. So trade goes through Vietnam, it 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:36.080 goes through Mexico, and the IMF had a very nice 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:39.200 chant on that in the latest World Economic Outlook, which 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:43.680 basically showed that yes, direct trade between the US and 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:47.160 China's shrunk. Direct trade, but the US Canada's shrunk, but 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:49.840 other people have played taking its place, and in some 0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:52.520 sense it was designed to be porous. Then there are 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:55.680 all sorts of exceptions that he's negotiated in return for 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:59.400 who knows what with sundry companies like Apple. Apple would 0:12:59.400 --> 0:12:59.960 have been very bad. 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:03.960 So it's all very porous and it's all negotiable, so 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:05.480 it's not as serious as all that. 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:09.120 And then the shock in the Gulf is significant, but 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:11.679 oil isn't as important as it used to be. As 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:16.760 we discussed, the energy system has changed across much of 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:20.560 the world, and this will be accelerated, of course, but 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:25.040 that's for the future, and prices have gone up, there 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:29.040 will be a slowdown. I'm absolutely sure we might get 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.080 close really. 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:31.680 Bad, really bad. 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:34.000 Maybe the world economy grows at one one and a 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:39.760 half percent, but it's not a catastrophe. And finally, profits 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:43.400 are robust because, let's face it, worldwide labor is weak, 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:47.040 so companies can manage their affairs in a way to 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:48.280 ensure that they survive. 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:49.960 I'm sure lots I've looked at this. 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:52.920 I'm sure lots of small and medium sized businesses are 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:56.880 very badly affected. But the colossi that are generating most 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:02.160 of the profits, particularly the tech colossy, not affected by this. 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.200 This is at least expose. 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.320 Perhaps not as surprising as one might have thought. There's 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:10.200 a great deliver ruin in the world economy. 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.040 We should see if we can do this entire episode 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:17.360 only referencing British historians and economic thinkers direct for. 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:20.880 You know, you know one other thing you mentioned those 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.920 exceptions that you know little Last week i think Trump 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.480 announced that they made a little carve out for UK 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:30.760 whiskey or something like that on the question of the King. 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:34.920 So therefore, much like us, Trump is a sucker for 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:38.120 the British accent clearly it was the king and everything. 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:39.800 He's like, all right, okay, yeah. 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:41.080 I think that's something. 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:45.840 He yes that He's also a sack of people have 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:50.760 grand positions, didn't he didn't they have some sort of 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:52.800 maybe it was true social or something else. 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:54.040 When he referred to. 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.320 There being two kings together, that was I'm sure not 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.680 a joke. I think he would like to be king. 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:04.960 But when I think about the king he would most 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:10.440 like to be, I immediately come to Henry the Eighth, who 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.640 was our real king, who made probably the single most 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:18.720 important decision made by any English monarch, namely to leave 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:22.640 the Catholic Church and make himself the head of the church. 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:25.080 I think Donald Trump would quite like that, don't you think. 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:29.480 And he was an absolute modock who chopped the heads 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:33.440 of one advisor after another. I think quite like that. 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:37.280 So yeah, he likes the idea of being a king. Now, 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:41.480 our porking Charles isn't like that, but at least he's 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:44.480 sort of connected to that, so I can see the glamour. 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:46.280 And he lives in palaces. 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.600 I mean, don't you think he'd rather like to Mister 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.000 Trump would like to move Buckingham Palace to Washington put 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:53.760 it in the middle. 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:57.960 I think the Oval Office makeover is very reminiscent of 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:02.080 a classic European style palace. I'm thinking of a particular 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:22.240 French one setting aside interior decorating. And Joe knows that 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.080 I could certainly talk about this for much longer. But 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:28.320 you know, you mentioned this idea of Trump as king, 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.320 and you also mentioned this idea of trade adaptations. And 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:33.960 one of the things that's happened since the Iran situation 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:36.440 is Trump has come out and said, well, if you 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:40.160 can't get oil from the Gulf and your Europe, why 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:42.040 don't you can come to the US and get oil 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:45.160 from the US. And I'm very curious how statements like 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.720 that play on the ground in Europe, given that, on 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:52.120 the one hand, this is a situation caused by the US. 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.320 I think it's fair to say that Europeans regard Trump 0:16:55.400 --> 0:17:01.280 as somewhat unpredictable, somewhat somewhat doing an impersonation of British 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:05.440 understatedness here, and then his message to Europe is basically, well, 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:07.760 you know, trust US for your energy security. 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:14.919 Yes, well, I think the trust US has definitively gone. 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:20.720 That's hardly news. I think that's true worldwide. I'm just 0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:24.960 trying to think, does anyone actually trust this guy? Because 0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:29.840 being untrust untrustworthy seems to me the core of his 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:34.040 modus operandi. I mean, he wants to surprise people, and 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:38.880 he does in both directions. So nobody in Europe believes 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.600 now that there's any promise that will come for this 0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:47.120 administration that is to be believed. And I think that's 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:51.879 true pretty well for everybody. That's understandable because it's consistent 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:57.879 with the evidence and the behavior and even what he says. However, 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:02.320 Europe is in a very very unfortunate position, which is 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:08.840 that it grew so dependent on America for so long 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:16.520 that pretty well all its structures, its defense system, very obviously, 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:20.840 but also the things it didn't bother to produce itself, 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:25.200 for instance, the whole tech array, the trade relations, the 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:31.520 investment relations, and of course the underlying ideologic ideology, the 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:33.480 sort of liberal democracy they imported. 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:35.960 This all came from America. 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:38.520 I mean, we were wrong to say that it wasn't there. 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.960 A lot of this wasn't there before in different ways. 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:46.920 But after the war, the first and second together, it 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:51.639 was so shatteringly demoralized as a continent and so damaged. 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:54.879 I can go through with the damage done to all 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:58.200 the different major countries that the US became the core 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:06.200 of every aspect of security, believe trust. They were very 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:11.359 very content with this. So whether they were naive or 0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:16.320 not very interesting question. It's all come as a colossal shock. 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:20.560 Now Trump one was when they the first administration of 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:24.400 Trump was a wake up call. But in the end 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:28.240 it wasn't so bad. They felt oh well, full of 0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:32.000 sound and fury, but didn't signify that much. In the end, 0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:34.760 he didn't do much so as he didn't change great policy, 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:38.840 didn't withdraw fromim NATO. He filled his administration with the 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.280 sort of people we're familiar with, we like and trust, 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:44.520 those sorts of Americans. This is a shock. I don't 0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:46.679 think it should have been a shock, but this is 0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:47.159 a shock. 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:48.440 And in the. 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:53.600 First year, when suddenly you know your trusted spouse, as 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:57.000 it were, that very much, the relationship turns around and 0:19:57.080 --> 0:20:01.440 becomes a violent bully. You're sort of shock, but worse, 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:03.119 you don't know where to go and live. Who do 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:05.280 you get to, who's your alternative? Do you want to 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:06.520 become friendly with China? 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:07.320 Not really? 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.720 Do you want to become friendly with absolutely not. And 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:12.840 are we strong enough to survive. 0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:14.600 On our own in all these different. 0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:18.120 Dimensions, of course not. The vulnerability of Europe is staggering. 0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:21.040 Do just think what would happen if the American administration 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:24.240 has decided if he could decide that to just close 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:28.440 off our access to the American digital stack, as it were, 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:33.320 cloud computing, all the rest of it. So then the 0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:36.720 question is, well, what do you do? And I think 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:39.639 they're still really and truly the Europeans that at the 0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:43.119 early stage of deciding what they want to do, and 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:46.600 they find it difficult to agree, very difficult. There are 0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:50.360 so many of them with different attitudes, values, historical relations. 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:53.840 They don't trust one another. Very important point, by the way, 0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:57.000 you know, the European history is not so far beneath 0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:01.280 the art the surface. So I think we are there 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:06.800 at the stage of absolute intellectual, moral confusion. 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:08.679 But they don't trust Trump. 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:12.159 I mean, you sort of anticipated where I was going 0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:15.359 to go with my next question, because you know, you've 0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:20.760 written about the threat to democracy that both in Europe 0:21:20.760 --> 0:21:24.600 and the US that you perceived the Trump administration as posing, 0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:29.080 and you mentioned that perhaps Trump actually prefers China to 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:31.480 Europe at this point, And it seems like, as you've written, 0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:36.200 the administration seems to have two specific big critiques of Europe. 0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:42.000 One is a particular conception of free speech, which the 0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:45.359 administration does not perceive Europe as upholding. And then of 0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:50.119 course immigration, which they would associate with civilizational decline and 0:21:50.200 --> 0:21:55.880 so forth. Interestingly, in your writing you acknowledge that both 0:21:55.880 --> 0:21:59.240 of those they are stranger their kernels to both critiques, 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:03.320 that the Europea government has to take seriously border control 0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:07.720 maintaining those liberal values around speech. How much harder does 0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:10.560 it or like, you know, how does your charter path 0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:16.439 while also taking into account those factors which may have 0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:17.840 some grain of reality to them. 0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:22.159 Well, one of the problems we have is we don't feel, 0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:24.280 looking at the whole range of what's going on in 0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:28.240 the United States, that this administration really does believe in 0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:34.680 free speech conception. The mildly quite a bit of hypocrisy 0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:37.359 going on. I don't think I need to lay that 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:43.760 out for your audience, but there I suppose a number 0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:50.679 of different elements in this story. The I think that 0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:55.720 the administration is right, but I don't think it's a 0:22:56.400 --> 0:22:59.040 I don't think they're honest in their critique, but that 0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:03.720 some government it's my own included, have gone too far 0:23:04.400 --> 0:23:08.520 in protecting people from what is called hate speech, and 0:23:08.560 --> 0:23:12.359 that there is a perfectly good argument that both in 0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:17.040 private institutions, universities and so forth, and in public you 0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:18.960 don't have a right not to be offended. 0:23:19.920 --> 0:23:20.720 That's clear. 0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:27.520 However, my view also is that there are some forms 0:23:27.560 --> 0:23:32.840 of speech that European history will see where it goes 0:23:32.880 --> 0:23:38.400