WEBVTT - Top 20 Must-Have Draft Targets for Keeper Leagues (Ep. 610) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:05.000 Playing for keeps, let's talk to the pros. Welcome in 0:00:05.040 --> 0:00:08.039 everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 0:00:08.039 --> 0:00:11.160 To this b Joey p Joe Pizapia, and today we're 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:12.200 talking about. 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:13.640 The keeper league targets. 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.000 We're talking about leagues that are starting up that have 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:20.840 keepers involved. Some are one, some are ten, some are more, 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:23.000 some are less. But we're gonna talk about some of 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:24.880 our favorite targets. If you were in one of those 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.120 drafts this year, that's just starting up guys in some 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:29.000 of the later rounds and some of the early rounds 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:30.760 too that we want to target, or if you're in 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:32.720 those salary cap drafts, the one you want to spend 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:35.440 some money on or maybe get some nice discounts on 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.280 later on. The Welsh of course, is here to help 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:39.519 me figure it all out. 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:40.080 And don't forget. 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:41.839 If you've got drafts coming up, make sure you use 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:44.199 your draft simulator because it's right here. 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:44.720 Right now. 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:47.640 The MLB Draft Wizard is open for business here at 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:50.600 Fantasy Pros. So go to fantasypros dot com slash Draft 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.239 Wizard and you could start your mock drafts. You can 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:55.640 do it in ten minutes. Go through undo. I just 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:57.960 did one right before here. Actually I did two. I 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.360 got a B plus on one and I'm an over 0:01:00.520 --> 0:01:02.280 so I went to another one got an A plus 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:05.280 on the second one. So clearly my strategy is starting 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:07.039 to take shape here. But you got to get your 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:09.720 strategy straight before you get into the twenty twenty three season. 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:12.559 You could do that fantasypros dot Com slash Draft Wizard again. 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.960 Go get your draft on Welsh while you start off 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:18.120 with one of your guys on your top ten list 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:20.679 of keeper league targets for twenty twenty three. 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.720 I also just want to add real quick that not 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:25.320 only can you draft and use the Draft Wizard, but 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.280 you can connect them to your own leagues, which I 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:30.560 just did last week, and it is incredibly invaluable. When 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.000 you even if you're drafting somewhere else, you connect it. 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:36.200 You get the projections, you get us who we hate you, 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.959 we love you, You get all the incredibly fun information 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:41.520 even if you're not drafting on Fantasy Pro. So I 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:43.640 just want to point that out because it is one 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:46.000 of the most fun tools to use in the offseason, 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:48.320 is a draft wizard. And it is not just one thing. 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:52.000 It is many things. Okay, we're talking about keeper buys. 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:56.600 This one is weird because it doesn't feel like this 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.000 would be a guy that would be a keyper buye. 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:02.080 But mister Mike Mayer is going to love me for 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:05.480 it on Fantasy Pros, and I'm a big buy in 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.840 on this guy. My number ten as far as keeper 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:13.320 pickups this year, going with Ryan Mountcastle. Ray Mountcastle, by 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:16.520 the way, is only twenty five years old. He'll start 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.440 the season as a twenty six year old. Last two seasons, 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:22.280 he's put up fifty five homers and an average of 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:25.560 eighty seven RBI. In that time, he's hit a round 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.120 two fifty with a couple stolen bases that have been 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.160 thrown in. But a couple of things I've really loved 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:33.840 on him over this past season. Expected slug rate this 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:37.079 past year was the eighth best in the league at 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:40.360 five oh nine. Eighth best. That also went with a 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.600 huge increase from his batting average was expected batting average 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.320 a two point fifty batting average with a two seventy 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:49.680 seven expected batting average. Then on top of it, this 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:51.440 isn't a one for one because they did change the 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:53.800 dimensions and this might just be a part of Orioles. 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:56.520 In general, we had the third biggest home run to 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:59.639 expected home run differential in the league last year of 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:03.960 qualif fight batters with an over five home run differential 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.840 five homers. He had twenty two this past year. That 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:09.760 would be twenty seven homers. And you put all of 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:13.040 that together with really good, strong, hard hit numbers an 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:15.240 offense that is trying to rebuild a team that is 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:18.560 building itself back up. I have a hard time not 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:22.400 buying into a post one hundred player who's under twenty 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:25.960 seven years old. He's got a ton of underline analytics 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.520 in his favor in an expected home run ratio that 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:30.440 just looks like it's going to pop back up. I 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:33.280 think Ryan Mountcastle is a nice, good, cheap option, even 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:35.520 if he's not your first baseman, he's your corner infielder 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.440 and he just qualifies on that young keeper range. 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:41.520 So give me Ryan Mountcastle, all right, number ten for 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:44.000 me on my list. Typically, I'm a little antsy when 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:46.800 it comes to catchers. Francisco Alvarez just missed this list 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:48.960 for me because he hasn't quite proven it yet. 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:49.480 In the show. 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:51.600 Got a little cup of coffee, but not enough to 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:52.360 really know yet. 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:54.760 It's more of a dynasty league selection. But instead I'm. 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:57.839 Looking at Adlie Ruschman, catcher for the Baltimore Orioles. Last 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.520 year thirteen home runs, forty two. He's hit two and 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:02.360 fifty four for the Baltimore Oriols. If you'll get the 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.560 minor league numbers of one hundred and eighty games, thirty dingers, 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:08.839 one hundred and eleven RBI, hit two eighty one, three 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:11.760 ninety OVP, forty seven slogging practically a three four to 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:14.280 five guy. Everybody knows I love the three four to 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:16.240 five guys. He's gonna be twenty five years old this year. 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:19.560 He's in a better ballpark situation now that you know 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.400 they've kind of made some adjustments last year where I 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.680 think that it's going to look. I know it took 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:28.400 away for some and I know the pitchers in some 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:30.440 situations were very pleased. We saw the Orioles make a 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.920 run last year. But I think Addley Rutchmand's one of 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:35.480 these special players where it doesn't matter what the ballpark 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:37.239 is like. You go back and look at him in college. 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:39.200 I remember watching them at Oregon State. The guy just 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:41.479 absolutely mash. I mean, he was just unbelievable. He's a 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:44.159 first rate guy too, and I think that stuff matters 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:45.560 when you look at a keepers, like guys who are 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:46.960 going to be leaders of teams, guys who are going 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:50.280 to be out there. Typically with the catchers, you're worried 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.560 about them giving up some of the offense to learn 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:54.400 the pitching staff. I think we got some of that 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:57.840 adjustment last year. I think this year it's going forward now. 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:00.839 Adley Rutchman's going to be a superstar in the major leagues, 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:03.799 and a catcher just not a lot of great options there. 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:05.640 There's a few, not a lot of great ones. So 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:07.400 when keeper leagues, I think Rushman's were of those guys 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:08.840 who was number nine on your list. 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:10.920 Welsh, Well, I'm going to go with the pitcher. There's 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:12.479 a guy that I've talked up a little bit over 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:16.160 this offseason. It's Nicolodolo. First half last year and only 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:18.680 about twenty six innings. It really took up a big 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:21.200 portion of what he lacked in success. He had a 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:24.360 five to eight one ERA. He was pitching to batters 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:27.480 four hundred babbit four thirty five babbitb and over three 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.280 hundred batting average in the second half, which equated to 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:33.080 essentially three fourths of his season. He had a two 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.760 nine to two ERA batters had an under three hundred 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:39.840 BAB and a two hundred batting average overall. What's interesting 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:42.320 about him there are twenty pitchers. If we're looking at Steamer, 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:43.839 I want to point out the bat and the bat 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:46.520 X is now out and these numbers look lower. But 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:49.839 Steamer had projected two hundred strikeout pitchers. There were twenty 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:52.120 of them this year. I believe the bat has around fourteen. 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:54.960 There were only two pitchers that were outside the top ten, 0:05:55.160 --> 0:05:57.640 top one hundred in overall eightp that had those two 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:03.400 hundred strikeouts. Those teammates and Nickelodolo. The difference Nickelodolo used 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.680 ten percent or more on pitches compared to a two 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:09.480 pitch pitcher. That Hunter Green is ten percent or more 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:13.200 on four different pitches. For Nicolodolo, Green had a really 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.560 great twenty eight percent whiff rate on his slider last 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:18.680 year with a forty percent usage. Lodolo on his curve, 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.279 which he used thirty percent of the time, had a 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.479 forty six percent whiff rate, almost the exact same k 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.240 percentage and a full mile per hour less on his 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:29.839 ev Nickelodolo. I think he's just really prime for a 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:31.960 big breakout. He's more of a control pitcher where a 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:34.320 hunter Green's little bit more of a power pitcher. He's 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.400 also a big analytics guy Niicolodolo outside the top one 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.640 hundred overall, a young pitcher on maybe not a great 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:42.560 team in a bad pitcher environment all things to consider, 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:46.120 think makes Green more volatile. And I'm a Nickelodolo guy, 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:48.200 so he's someone I'd be buying in on Dynasty and 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:51.040 even keeper leagues who doesn't cost especially in keeper is 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:52.640 not going to probably cost you top one hundred. 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:55.360 Here's a sneaky guy in keeper leagues too. 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:57.039 I don't think it's going to cost you as much 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.400 as you might think at twenty three years old last 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:02.840 year for the leveland and almost at Indians Nope, Guardians, 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:06.839 Oh my goodness, Collars season without saying it. And this 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:08.680 is what happens, you know, when you're still coming off 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:13.360 of football, your mind is still fuzzy. Seventeen homers, twenty steals. 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:15.960 I think in roatal leagues Andres Jimenez is a guy 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:19.560 that people are just really sort of coming around on. 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:23.119 Certainly a breakout year last year he's so young still, 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:26.320 he's gonna have that job for the foreseeable future. He's 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:29.720 in a good situation there. I think that the Guardians 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.440 did well here in this trade when they gave up 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:35.680 Francisco Lindor. Having watched him come up through the Mets system, 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:37.280 you know, I saw a lot of Jimenez. It was 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.119 just whether or not you would grow into any power. 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:42.360 And I think last year flashing that for sixty six 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:44.880 lugging that was a big positive for him, and two 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:47.080 ninety seven batting average was terrific. I mean, this is 0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:49.880 a guy who's gonna hit for batting average, hit for power, 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:52.160 give him soul bases in roatal leagues. He might be 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:54.080 one of the best return on investments in keeper leagues 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:57.600 right now. So I like the adp in those situations, 0:07:57.640 --> 0:07:59.720 and I like the player. I think he's got maybe 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.119 another year, but even if he just becomes this guy, 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:04.920 this guy's pretty good to keep, especially in those deeper 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:07.840 keeper leagues. All right, Welsh, who is number eight for 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:10.840 you on your list of twenty twenty three keeper league targets. 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:13.480 Well, it's another one of these young guys. It's really 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:15.920 interesting and redraft. He comes at a cheaper cost. He's 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:18.240 going to be a little bit more expensive in keeper leagues, 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:19.840 but you know what, it might not tick up to 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:23.000 a crazy degree. Go with Vinnie Pasquinino with the Kansas 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.520 City Royals is one of those guys that's on a 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:28.000 little ho home of a team overall offensively that I 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:31.160 don't think really helps. But you know, Vinnie was pull 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:34.440 heavy and the power wasn't insane and about three hundred 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:37.640 plate appearances he had ten overall. But we need to 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:40.360 talk about those home run to expected home run differentials. 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:44.160 Mount Castle's number three. Paus Quentino number four was number 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:47.120 four in the league ten homers with an expected fourteen 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:50.400 point eight on that home run total. You pair that 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:54.160 with an expected batting average that was within right on 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:56.520 his overall batting average two ninety five, batting average two 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.640 eighty nine expected, no big difference how to higher x 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.440 slug slug of four fifty and almost four. It was 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:04.880 four to seventy six on his expect slug, which you've 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:07.000 gotta love. And overall when you just take a look 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:09.720 at him, there's big EV numbers. Had almost one hundred 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:12.520 and thirteen max EV overall, I think a lot is 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:14.439 working in favor of a guy that doesn't strike out. 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:16.840 A whole bunch is going to hit for power that 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:19.480 doesn't show up quite yet. A lot of underlining things 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.920 work in favor of it. And if you do have 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:24.400 a Royals team that tries to manufacture and you get 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:26.719 modesty back in there, they're running a little bit more. 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:29.880 It's more RBI opportunity, even though they kind of stink overall. 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:33.240 Minny Pascuatino doesn't he walks, he doesn't strike out, He 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.000 makes lots of contact, and there's power that's gonna come 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.280 in there. A little Italian breakfast there for you, Joe, 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:39.360 Minni pass. 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:40.160 Have a good Italian breakfast. 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:45.080 Can't get enough little espresso, you know, maybe a biscothy, 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:48.319 very nice biscoti. 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:50.439 Yeah, what are you Bisconti? I don't I don't know 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:52.840 what biscuit? Well, a biscuit, you like a biscuit. 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:55.200 Bisconti, You don't know what bisconti is. 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:57.599 Oh my goodness, after the show, I'm gonna have to 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:01.080 send you a whole case. Uh it's a you dunk 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:03.480 him in the coffee. It's like this Italian little biscuit 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.160 cookie thing. And it's kind of shaped almost like a 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.440 long you ish kind of thing in this chocolate. There's 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.200 different one. I mean, we're gonna have to educate you 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:13.200 on some of the Italians. 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:15.440 Maybe Veny can educate men. 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:20.839 You can Wander Franco by low Okay, geez, can we can? 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:24.199 We not overreact. He's barely old enough to drink. I mean, 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:27.240 twenty two years old here. And I know last year 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:29.960 was disappointing. I was disappointed. I was expecting big things. 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:32.640 I was expecting a power surge. It didn't happen. Injury 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:35.600 happened instead. But there's a reason why the Rays committed 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:38.840 so much money to this player. He is a special player. 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:42.800 He is still just twenty two years old. In the 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:45.320 minor leagues, he hit three thirty five with a four 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:48.400 hundred OBP over two hundred and twenty four games. And 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:51.120 if you combine and look at the last two seasons, 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.000 you know he's got one hundred and fifty games there, 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:56.679 thirteen home run, seventy two RBI, ten steals, two eighty 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:57.680 two batting average. 0:10:57.840 --> 0:10:58.960 That's something to build on. 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:02.000 I mean, I just don't think we're being fair to 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.280 the Wander Franco evaluation system yet. 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:05.480 And Wander Franco. 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:08.160 Maybe he'll never be a forty home run guy, but 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:09.480 I do think at some point he's going to be 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:10.920 a twenty five to thirty home run guy, and I 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.160 think it's gonna be sooner than you realize. And I 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.920 think you're in the unique position to buy low almost 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:18.440 in keeper leagues on him for the first time and 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:20.360 maybe the last time you're gonna be able to do that. 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:22.439 Certainly the last couple years he was very hyped. He 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.600 should be hyped. He's that good of a player. The 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.000 Rays are the raised and they're always gonna have some 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:31.240 deficits there offensively. But I think for me, Wander Franco 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:34.360 is that perfect price this year to buy low in 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:36.360 these keeper league drafts on him, or if you're in 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:38.400 a keeper league, buy low on him and just enjoy 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:40.600 this player for the next decade, because I think he's 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:43.760 gonna be an absolute star. And we're just getting started 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.959 still with Wander Franco. Let's not overreact to a down 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:50.520 and disappointing year. All right, Next on the list here, 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:53.520 that's my number eight, number seven for you, your keeper 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:55.040 league target for twenty twenty three. 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:57.080 So I'm gonna jump up the board now. This doesn't 0:11:57.080 --> 0:11:59.160 necessarily have to be a board where we're up at 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.280 the top and then we down to the top guys. 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.040 A draft overall necessarily not mine. This is kind of 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.079 ranking and how I'm approaching this. So I'm going to 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.640 jump up the board to a definitely a higher ADP player, 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:11.480 but in a keeper league, I don't know if there's 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.960 a priority, and I think there's still some value to 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:15.920 be had at third base, and I'm gonna go with 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:18.760 Austin Riley. And I know you're thinking to yourself, like, well, okay, 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.679 Austin Riley might be a second round player. Keeper leaks 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:23.320 you start to get some of the young guys in 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.439 there that might push down. If you're talking about dynasty, 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:27.840 Austin Riley is a player that actually could push into 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:31.720 the third round in some places because he doesn't steal bases. 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:34.080 And I think there's an overall question. I think people 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.240 overall have maybe in the power. My point here is 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.200 Austin Riley is the type of guy that I think 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:42.200 can still push higher and can you maybe get you 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:44.959 into a first round overall value, That's what I still 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.080 think is on the table, especially if he pushes back 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.000 a little bit and Austin Riley this past year had 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:53.680 the eighth best slug percentage in the league or number, 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.559 and he had the six best expected x slug. I mean, 0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.959 that's crazy, that's crazy to improve off of that, though, 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:04.959 those power numbers are absolutely real. Seventy one homers over 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.559 the last two years. His RBIs ticked down a little bit, 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.520 his strikeout numbers came down, but his batting average came off. 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:14.240 He was a three hundred hitter the year before he 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.880 ticked down to two seventy three. And I think there's 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.840 some value. I would not be surprised if Austin Riley 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.600 pushed forty homers this year and pushes up one hundred hundred. 0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:26.200 He's more of a fat four category player, maybe three. 0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:28.719 But I would buy in on keeper leagues because he's 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:30.920 still really young. And this is a player that could 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.720 be a first run overall talent if you can get 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:34.720 him in the late second or third round. 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:35.360 Yeah. 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:36.800 And some of these guys are going to talk about 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.160 today that obviously the prices are going to vary. We're 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:40.959 going to talk about the premium guys and the reason 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.280 why you want to pay for some of them. And 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:44.800 we're talking about some guys in the middle, and some 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:47.280 of the guys we just mentioned too, Pas Galentino probably 0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:49.960 going a little later in drafts. There still a little unknown, 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:53.720 still divisiveness there on the opinion Wander Franco kind of 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.000 coming off a down year. Lots of different evaluations of 0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:58.599 a lot of these players, and again we're trying to 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.640 give you a range, you know exactly, you know how 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:03.160 you're can to approach some of these drafts. And look, 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.240 we're gonna talk about some big time players and why 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:06.640 they're still worth that big investment. 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.640 And Franco's fascinating. By the way, it's a time for 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:13.240 another conversation we could have, but Fronco is ultimately fascinating 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.880 because I'm not sure there's a player in Keeper and 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:19.760 dynasty formats that has a wider range of valuation than 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:23.320 Wander Franco anywhere from the top twenty five down to 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:25.720 maybe his redraft value, which is in the nineties. So 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:29.720 there is a wide, wide spectrum of outcomes for him 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.680 as far as how people value him, and that's what 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.160 makes him really intriguing, especially if you're in a league 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.040 where that value is quite a bit lower and someone's 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.360 in the sixties or seventies is kind of given up 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:41.720 because the counting stats will never catch up, and I 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:43.960 agree with you, I don't think that's necessarily the case. 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.360 And for me, I'm trying to look for guys too, 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:48.560 who have proven something in the major leagues already. Like 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.760 these are guys that you know, again, not pure minor 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:53.760 league talent, guys, guys who have shown you at least 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.240 something here in the major league level. And one guy's 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.200 shown you a lot so far, and he's still just 0:14:58.240 --> 0:14:59.720 twenty five years old. Again, a lot of these guys 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.960 and stay in that twenty six and under range too, 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:05.280 so I know, like the prime of their career is 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.400 still ahead of them, which is the twenty eight to 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.200 thirty one years that's the prime typically of these players. 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:11.800 So Kyle Tucker. 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.760 Hasn't hit the prime yet, but he's got two back 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.840 to back thirty home run seasons with ninety plus rebies. 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.800 He's gonna steal bases twenty five last year. The batting 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:22.280 average did take a tumble year over here. 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.080 That's fine. But if there's one guy too, along with. 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:27.520 Corey Seeger, where the shift change is going to help him, 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.000 it's gonna be Kyle Tucker back to back years playing 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.520 over one hundred and forty games as well. You know, 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:36.360 he plays in a go ballpark surrounded by good lineup support. 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.120 There's a lot to like here with Kyle Tucker. And 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.000 this is a player too that is going to continue, 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.160 I think, to even get better. But you've seen, my goodness, 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:47.040 what a high ceiling he has. There might be another 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:49.680 gear in Kyle Tucker where you get all the high 0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.880 batting average, you get all of the thirty plus homers, 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:55.280 you get fifteen steals, you get everything in there in 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:57.760 one season all together. I think it's very possible. I 0:15:57.760 --> 0:15:59.800 think it's probably coming very quickly. So he's one of 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:02.200 these guys that I think is starting to you know, 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:05.120 like he's a first round talent in any redraft leagues already. 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:08.040 But we're talking about salary cap leagues and issues where 0:16:08.080 --> 0:16:09.680 we're gonna look at how much you want to pay 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:11.840 for a player. This is the guy who's already shown 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.120 you what he is and I think the best is 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.000 still yet to come with him, which is huge. And 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:18.160 I think Kyle Tucker is in a good spot right 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.880 here at twenty six years old, to be a great 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.320 investment where you might even overpay to get him. What 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:24.960 do you think about Kyle Tucker Welsh? 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.720 Yeah, I'm into this. I mean, actually this really fascinating debate. 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.160 Just the other day we were talking about Mookie bats 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.480 versus Kyle Tucker, and that's the range that he's living 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:37.840 in right now. Stolen bases, we can question how real 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:39.760 they're going to be, but the powers there, the hit 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:42.080 tools there were just one of those guys too that 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.040 just you look and you're just like, why are you 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:48.480 not hitting for more average? And kind of like Austin Riley, 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.400 I also kind of think people are just not caught 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.080 up on like the true value that he holds in 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.920 keeper leagues, especially with top end power and speed. So yeah, 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.600 I'm with that. I'm pretty aggressive on him. He's a 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:01.680 top ten and no doubt, so anytime you can get 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:05.560 him outside of that, whether it's dynasty keeper, that's another 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:07.479 thing to point out as well. Dynasty's and keepers are 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.280 not necessarily valued in the same way. That's something I 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:12.440 had to adjust because I do a huge top four 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:16.480 hundred dynasty list, but keepers they're all not created equal 0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:18.800 because you could be keeping two or three, or five 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:20.840 or ten. So there's so many different ways to look 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.360 at it, so proximity is more important. And that's also 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:25.439 why we're not sitting here talking about Ellie Day, La 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:29.160 Cruz or Jackson Curio in these keeper formats, because there's 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.240 just so many different ways you can go right. 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:33.320 And when you're talking with a player like Moogi Bets, 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:36.080