1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 1: America, Claus and lead is not right, but ing, not 2 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:11,240 Speaker 1: large sums but normal, Not revolution but restoration, not agitating, 3 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: but a judgment. That's Burgery's ramatic. Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, 4 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: the podcast that brings the global economy to you. When 5 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: Warren Harding became US President in March of ninety one, 6 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: the world was also reeling from a global pandemic. Economies 7 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: were depressed, and the mood was somber. Harding's predecessor wasn't 8 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: even there yet. What happened next was an extraordinary explosion 9 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: of activity and innovation. The Roaring twenties. When they say 10 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: history doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes, and quite 11 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 1: a lot of economists have been wondering and that we 12 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: might be in for some Roaring twenties of our own 13 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: once the COVID nineteen pandemic is behind US. Business Week 14 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 1: senior economic writer Peter Ki took a closer look at 15 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: the nineteen twenties and a fascinating article this week and 16 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: came away with some interesting lessons for today. I'm going 17 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: to talk to him about that in a minute. We 18 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: also have a timely chat with Dr Carmen Reinhardt who's 19 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: been Chief economist of the World Bank since last summer, 20 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: and I'm going to check in briefly with our chief 21 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: European economist, Jamie Rush who's been working out exactly how 22 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: much the COVID crisis it's going to cost the world's governments. 23 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 1: Think the answer will surprise you. But first let's go 24 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: back to the nineteen twenties with Peter Coy. Peter, thanks 25 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: for joining us again. Remind us about some of those 26 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: parallels between our twenties and those twenties. You mentioned the 27 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: introduction we had just come off of pandemic. Actually that 28 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: one had ended by whereas this one was still very 29 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: much in the middle of it. But there was the 30 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: scarring caused by all those deaths and disabilities. We were 31 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 1: in the middle of a very deep recession. Recession to 32 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 1: hit in saw an enormous decline in prices. In particular, 33 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: if it had not been overshadowed by the nineteen thirties, 34 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: that would be remembered to this day as one of 35 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: the most severe recessions of the most severe recession of 36 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: the twentieth century. So that was the environment that Warren 37 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 1: Harding came into the presidency during um his predecessor, of course, 38 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: with Woodrow Wilson. Wilson was not present at the inauguration, 39 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: not because he had gone to Mara Lago, but because 40 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: he had had a severe stroke and was disabled. Um 41 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: so it was a somber time and inauspicious time. And 42 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: yet that summer July of the serious recession ended and 43 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: the twenties as we think of them now began. We 44 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: had the mass adoption of the automobile, radio motion pictures, 45 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 1: assembly lines, labor saving electrical appliances, indoor plumbing, just an 46 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 1: amazing profusion of the technologies that today we take for granted. 47 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 1: But we're new then, and it was a time of 48 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: great excitement and ferment worldwide. And it, as a one 49 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: historian I talked to said at the time, it was 50 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: in a way the first modern decade. And I mean, 51 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: we uh, it's it's a bit unfair just to talk 52 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: about the flappers, uh and the jazz, because as you say, 53 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: there was some really fundamental technological changes that came right 54 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: into the home. What sign of that kind of breakthrough 55 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: in technology and we're seeing today. I mean, we obviously 56 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: did have of historically rapid development of the vaccines against 57 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: COVID and people have rightly rightly taken note of that. 58 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: But elsewhere do you think we are looking potentially at 59 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: an explosion of innovation like we saw? Then you know, 60 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 1: I think that possibility has to be taken seriously. And 61 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 1: you put your finger on one of the most important developments, 62 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 1: which was the vaccine. Not just these particular vaccines, but 63 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: the underlying technologies that enabled them. Biotechnology genetic engineering has 64 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: taken up leaps forward and that will enable other life 65 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:45,599 Speaker 1: saving and life improving technologies in this decade and beyond. 66 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 1: So this could be argued is the same sort of 67 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: general purpose technology that pays dividends for years to come. 68 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 1: Just as in the ninet twenties, what we had were 69 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: to important general purpose technologies, one the internal combustion engine, 70 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: which enabled automobiles and trucks to be wide widely adopted, 71 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: and electrification which brought some of these appliance as we 72 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: talked to into the home as well as electrified factories 73 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: made them far more efficient. There was a boom in 74 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: manufacturing the nineties. So today the equivalence would be the medicine, 75 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 1: the biotechnology, and then digitization. Um, we've had computers for 76 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: decades now, but the question is, are the latest advances 77 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, mobile computing, and so on. 78 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 1: Do they collectively add up to a general purpose technology 79 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: whose fruits we will continue to enjoy through the ties 80 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: and beyond. And we have a lot of pent up 81 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: to mond. I guess that's one thing. I mean, people, 82 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: it was it was a year of years of big 83 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 1: spending in the twenties, coming out of the World War One, 84 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: coming out of the pandemic. I guess we, Peter, we 85 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: might see some of that and at least in the 86 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: next year or two. Yes, I think there will be 87 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: a period where people will want to bust out and 88 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: enjoy life again, once they can get out of their 89 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: pods and their bubbles. UM. Carnival Cruise Lines is launching 90 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: its biggest ship ever this spring, and they're hopeful that 91 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: they'll get plenty of passengers. You know, you can anecdotally 92 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 1: talk to people who say, I can't wait to get 93 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: back on a cruise ship. UM, even though to others 94 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: of us it seems a little frightening. But that's going 95 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,159 Speaker 1: to carry you only so far. It can't be strictly 96 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 1: just a splurge. To be sustainable. UM. Economic growth has 97 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: to be based on something more than that, which gets 98 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: to this question of whether we are stuck in a 99 00:06:54,680 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 1: period of secular stagnation. And the conditions in twenties are 100 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: quite different from those of the nineteen twenties. We have 101 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: slower labor force growth, we have slower improvement in educational attainment. 102 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: Both of those are crucial for economic growth. We also have, 103 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: as Larry Summers likes to point out, a situation where 104 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: we have desired savings and excessive desired investment, which is 105 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: equated only with extremely low, even negative real interest rates. 106 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: So it's it's hard to imagine that you can look 107 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: at data like that and say, oh, yes, this is 108 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: gonna be a boom decade. It's it's it's not the 109 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: way it's feeling. But there's one place you can see 110 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: quite a lot of optimism and quite a lot of exuberance, 111 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: and that's in the stock market that does also feel 112 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: like a funny kind of parallel with the nineteen twenties. 113 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: Of course, we associate the nineteen twenties with those shoeshine 114 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: boys offering offering stock tips, and right now we have 115 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: crazy things happening to some stocks because of words word 116 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 1: being passed around on Reddit and other online forums. So 117 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: what do you think do you think we are with 118 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: least in the stock market, we might be seeing a 119 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: kind of twenties style experience, you know, Stephanie, that's a 120 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: great point. It's something I didn't really delve into in 121 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: the article very much. It doesn't take much to remember 122 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: that the nineteen twenties we're succeeded by the nineteen thirties. Uh. 123 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: And the final act of the nineteen twenties was the 124 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 1: great stock market crash of October, which ushered in the 125 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 1: Great Depression. Looking at today's market, you don't see the 126 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: same kind of exuberance overall. You see it here and there, 127 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: You see it with bitcoin, you see it with a 128 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: few tech stocks here and there. But we did have 129 00:08:55,360 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 1: the Great Depression straight after theies. But doing the reading 130 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 1: you did for this piece, and thinking about the comparison 131 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,599 Speaker 1: of the nineteen twenties, do you think there are any 132 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: warnings from that period that we should take seriously? Well? 133 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: There are. One is the danger of protectionism and inward looking. 134 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 1: The legacy of World War One was that America turned inward. 135 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: The Congress, led by farm state Republicans, refused to join 136 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: the League of Nations, and through the twenties, the United 137 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: States had high tariff barriers, which made it hard for 138 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: countries to earn their way out of the wreckage of 139 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: World War One by selling more to the United States. 140 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: It demanded interest payments to the penny on war debts 141 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: from the UK and France, which squeezed those countries. They 142 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: in turn had nowhere to go for the money except 143 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: to demand reparations from Germany, which hurt Germany and uh 144 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: angered Germans and contributed to the rise of Adolf Hitler. 145 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 1: So you see how one war, the aftermath of one 146 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: more led directly into the next one. The United States 147 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 1: learned lesson from that from the tragedy and trauma of 148 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: the depression in World War two and had a much 149 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: more enlightened policy after World War Two, adopted international institutions 150 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 1: like the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund in the 151 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: World Bank, and became a leader. Now what we see, 152 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 1: what we saw in the Trump administration was a pulling 153 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 1: back from that in America first mentality, and now we 154 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: have a new president who is promising to re engage 155 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 1: with the world. But I think there was something learned, unfortunately, 156 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 1: and forgotten but learned from the experience of the nineteen 157 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: twenties and the aftermath. Well, and of course you do 158 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: draw that that final moral in your in your piece, 159 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: that just understanding history, just remembering history can be helpful 160 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:04,199 Speaker 1: in itself, and I think that's certainly true. So Peter Cooid, 161 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Thank you. Now we have our chief, 162 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: a mere economist, good friend to Stephanomys, Jamie Rush to 163 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: tell us more about the cost of all this borrowing 164 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: that governments have done in response to COVID nineteen. Jamie, 165 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: just tell us briefly, what's the price tag been so 166 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: far in terms of the extra borrowing that governments have 167 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: had to do. Well, so we think that that G 168 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: seven governments have probably added around about seven trillion dollars 169 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: of debt to their to their debt piles in and 170 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: of course the spending is ongoing as the news strains 171 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: sweeping across the world. More supports needed. So we haven't 172 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: reached the final price tag yet. And how much is 173 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: that actually costing them day to day? I mean, they 174 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 1: obviously had to they had to go out and they 175 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 1: had to borrow that from the market. But when you 176 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: look at what the impact is on their their cost 177 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: of their debt servicing. What is that price tag. It's 178 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 1: actually it's actually not very much, as we know, because 179 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: the central banks have obviously stepped in to finance it, 180 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: and that's kept borrowing curves very very low. But just 181 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: as a sort of summary statistic, debts GDP is about 182 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: in two thousand and seven. It's since risen to a 183 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 1: hundred and fort and g d P and the G 184 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,599 Speaker 1: seven economies on average, but it's not actually going to 185 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: cost anymore to service that debt then then in two 186 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 1: thousand and seven, and the reason is just that interest 187 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: rates are so low. It's it's it's quite astonishing. And 188 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 1: when you say it's not costing the menything, I mean 189 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,719 Speaker 1: there is an interest rate on that borrowing, but we're 190 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: saying it's not. It's it's less than inflation. So you're effectively, 191 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: if you allow for inflation issue, you're getting free money 192 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: if you're a government these days. Yeah, that's right. So 193 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 1: that the nominal interest rate on the COVID era debt 194 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: is about half a percent, and I think the IMF 195 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: is expecting inflation about one point three percent this year, 196 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: so it's going to be outstripped by price gains. And 197 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 1: actually that's true now, but we think it's probably also 198 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: going to be true even in twenty thirty, ten years 199 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: from now. We think that the cost of COVID era 200 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: A debts will be about one point three percent, which 201 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: would be probably still below inflation. And that's a key point. 202 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: And obviously in the in the States and other places 203 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,439 Speaker 1: are having debates about whether we could possibly having had 204 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: that enormous stimulus program last year, could we possibly spend 205 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 1: another trilling or more than that dollars supporting the economy. 206 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: And the short answer from your analysis is we could. 207 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: You could certainly afford it. Yeah, exactly, you won't hit 208 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: the budget so much. But I think you know, we're 209 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: we're obviously assuming the interest rates stay incredibly low, and 210 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: you know, certainly if you look at the U area, 211 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: there's basically no increasing interest rates priced in forever pretty much. 212 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: In the US it's a bit different, but clearly if 213 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: rates were to rise a bit faster than those, costs 214 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 1: do start to filter through after a few years, and 215 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 1: it does become more costly. We talked at the beginning 216 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 1: of the program actually with Peter coy about unexpected things happening, 217 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: and potentially, you know, we could have an explosion in 218 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: innovation the way that we had in the in the 219 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: nineteen twenties, if that started to push up interest rates. 220 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: How much do you have to see in terms of 221 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 1: that bit of the world changing for governments to especially 222 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: the governments like Italy for example, to get into trouble. Well, 223 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: it's you've got a bit of space. You've got a 224 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: bit of space for policy to normalize. And obviously if 225 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: it's a if, it's because because the economy is growing 226 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 1: fast and everyone expected that gets you yet more space. 227 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: So it's that would be a good thing. Um. I 228 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: think the dangers if the rates go up and growth 229 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: doesn't follow it, and in which case you're looking at 230 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: probably around about a hundred basis points of higher interest 231 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: rate costs would eventually take you back sort of mid 232 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: nine nineties interest rates for the US for example, when 233 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: things were a bit more when that was more of 234 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 1: a concern. Two hundred basis points and things start to 235 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: look pretty hairy for for most for most economies. I 236 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: guess there was a good final point we should remember 237 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: buried in what you were just saying that you know, 238 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: if interest rates go up because the world is sort 239 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: of growing, then governments might be pleased with that, even 240 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: if it was causing them to spend more on their 241 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: on their borrowing. I mean, that is a fundamental point, 242 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: isn't it. This isn't sort of um, it's not great 243 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: news for governments that they're finding it so cheap to borrow, 244 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: because it tells you that the world is in a 245 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: rather flat, stagnant place. Yeah. I think that's right. And 246 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: you know, we're all hoping that the economy gets going, 247 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: productivity and that's the crucial one, of course, picks up 248 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: so that it's actually sustainable. And really interest rates being 249 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: higher can be sustainable. That's what we're looking for. Whether 250 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: we'll get it or not, that's a that's another question. 251 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: So when we have to go and remortgage and probably 252 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 1: the first time in the generation, we might find we've 253 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: actually got a higher interest rate than before, we should 254 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: we should not worry too much. We do think that's 255 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: a good thing. Yeah, exactly, Thanks very much, Jamie. Now 256 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: to one of the most influential economists working in the 257 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: world today, Dr Carmen Reinhardt. She's famous as the co 258 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: author of a seminal analysis of the long term impact 259 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: of financial crisis. But regular listeners might remember she talked 260 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: to us just before she was appointed to the World 261 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: Bank last June about the differences between the COVID crisis 262 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: and other economic emergencies we've had through history. I was 263 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: lucky enough to have a conversation with Dr Reinhardt this 264 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: week as part of the Bloomberg The Year Ahead conference, 265 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: and here is that interview. Now, Dr Reinhart Carmen very 266 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: good view to join us at Bloomberg The Year Ahead, 267 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: and let me get straight to the point of this 268 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: year's recovery and what we're looking at. Um. You know, 269 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: we maybe a few weeks ago even the world was 270 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: quite optimistic about the kind of pace of growth we 271 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: might see this year. A lot of demand pent up 272 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: from from last year. Now around the world, concern around 273 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: new variants, new question marks over the rollout of vaccines, 274 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 1: great concerns about that process in the developing world. Are 275 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: you looking fundamentally at a more somber picture when you 276 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: look at one, or do you think we could still 277 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: see a decent recovery. Well I began to have my 278 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: doubts about what was the prevalent view earlier in twenty 279 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 1: that this was going to be a V shape again, 280 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: you know, very different technology, very different world. But you 281 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: go back to the Spanish influenza and that kicked off 282 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: in April of night in in circle globe several times 283 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: until in nineteen twenties. So my expectations of recovery were 284 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 1: always on the whole thing side. I'm not looking for 285 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:14,920 Speaker 1: a quick recovery. And I think what my my overarching 286 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: message this is with work that I did with Vincent 287 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: Reinhardt last summer for for foreign affairs, don't confuse rebound 288 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: with recovery. True recovery will take longer. You know, there's 289 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: a conversation around the case shaped recovery that has taken 290 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: the place of that V shaped recovery. We talk about 291 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:38,239 Speaker 1: it in terms of inside economies, one group doing much 292 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 1: better than the other. But do you fear that there's 293 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: also going to be a global K shaped recovery when 294 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: you look at the prospects for developing countries versus advanced well, Indeed, 295 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: one of the many concerning facts of of of this 296 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 1: crisis is how unequal. You know, it's a very regressive shock. 297 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: It's regressive both within countries, you know, both within countries 298 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 1: in the sense that lower income households and UH smaller 299 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:14,360 Speaker 1: firms have taken on a disproportionate hit. It's also very 300 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 1: unequal across countries UH, where you know, the poorest and 301 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 1: even considerably into the middle income haven't had the ammunition 302 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: the capacity to do the kind of countercyclical fiscal stimulus UH. 303 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: You know, the transfers for social safety nets, that spending 304 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 1: on on help that the advanced economies UH have done. 305 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: And again, by contrast to the two thousand eight two 306 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: thousand nine, after two two thousand nine, what we saw 307 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: if you look, for example, at credit ratings, you saw 308 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: the credit ratings of emerging markets go up while the 309 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: advanced credit ratings of the advanced economies went down. Now 310 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 1: the wedge between the two UH is getting bigger, and 311 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:08,639 Speaker 1: it isn't because the advanced economies are being marked up UM. 312 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: So it's it's very unequal UH impact globally as well. 313 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 1: We have our forecasts out there's eggs growth is about 314 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 1: four percent, but look, you know, if there is the 315 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: dispersion around them is significant, you could see significantly higher 316 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: growth if if everything goes very smoothly in terms of 317 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: global distribution of vaccine, so you could see less than 318 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: half of that if if the processes is bogged down 319 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: and and doesn't quite have the speedy outreach that is hopeful. 320 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 1: Well that's uh, that's certainly chastening for people to take home. 321 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,159 Speaker 1: Hold that you think that the growth rate for this 322 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 1: year could could that forecast could have given if we 323 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,360 Speaker 1: see a continuation of the kind of problems that we've 324 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 1: had all that common debt framework. I mean, clearly, the 325 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,159 Speaker 1: key thing about that JEEF twenty agreement at the end 326 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: of last year was the inclusion of China and others 327 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: in the same framework you've had chat now be the 328 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 1: first country to apply for restructuring under that framework. Are 329 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: you expecting many more countries to join? And would that 330 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: would that be a success to have, you know, ironically 331 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: a success to see as many countries as possible use 332 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 1: that framework rather than fight restructuring, So uh, look, successes. Uh. 333 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: You know, when you're dealt with a bad hand, a 334 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: quick response and quick correction is is the preferred outcome 335 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: is not the outcome you would have chosen. You would 336 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: have preferred not to be dealt a bad hand in 337 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 1: the first place. But given that, as I said, you know, 338 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: number of countries already started pre COVID with very vulnerable 339 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: external positions. Uh So, getting to your the core of 340 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 1: the question is chat you know, a sign of things 341 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: to come. Uh Look, I am not looking for the 342 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 1: kind of title wave that we saw in the early 343 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: nineteen eighties. Okay, and I'll explain briefly why. But we 344 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: are looking for numerous especially among some of the low 345 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: income you know, highly indebted. Besides Chad, you know, we 346 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: have the case of Zambia, there's a question of you know, Ethiopia. 347 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: There there are many others that would benefit from a 348 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: faster debt resolution through the common Framework. Um. But the 349 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: reason I said, I just want to go back to 350 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: that that I don't expect the title wave that we 351 00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 1: got in the early eighties is in the early eighties 352 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: we had a spike in US interest rate, you know 353 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 1: where indebted countries share their debt service skyrocket literally overnight. 354 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 1: Here we have given the law for long. We have 355 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: an environment in which debt vulnerabilities start playing out at 356 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: a at a slower pace, but they're still playing out well. 357 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: We have some questions in one of them goes to 358 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 1: something which has obviously been a big part of your 359 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 1: academic work that should governments maintain the same mindset towards 360 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: spending and borrowing after the pandemic now we've had I 361 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 1: would say an officially, officially a very relaxed position around 362 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: government borrowing overall in response to the pandemic. And indeed, 363 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: Chrystalina got you Eva whenever I've spoken to for for 364 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,640 Speaker 1: someone who's the head of the International Monetary Fund, who 365 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 1: has been very relaxed, very concerned about the risk of 366 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,640 Speaker 1: spending too little, knots ending too much. Do you see 367 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: a change in that mindset over the next few years 368 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 1: or do you think that that that really is a 369 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: very low grade concept of fiscal borrowing at the levels 370 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,640 Speaker 1: of debt. I don't want to put worse in Crystalina's mouth, 371 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: but certainly also the way I view it is this 372 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: is this is a war that the human cost, the 373 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 1: cost to to the economy, the cost to every development 374 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:31,760 Speaker 1: indicator almost that one can think about. Um it has been, 375 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 1: you know, off the charts in terms of relative to 376 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 1: any kind of business cycle or financial crisis you want 377 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: to compare it to. So how do you react in 378 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 1: a war while you worry about winning the war? And 379 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: then you worry how you're gonna pay for the war. UH. 380 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: And one of the concerns that I laid out last 381 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 1: summer in this piece that I mentioned with with this 382 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: in Reinhardt, UH, is there risk the risk that people 383 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: come you know, policymakers confuse rebound with recovery, which means 384 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 1: you're really back to your pre crisis per capita income 385 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:14,960 Speaker 1: UH and tightened too quickly UH and declare victory prematurely. 386 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 1: That scenario is a real source of concerns. So you know, 387 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: it's not that I embraced, you know how high levels 388 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: of debt. I am not. I don't take a benign 389 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: view of having high levels of indebtedness, but I think 390 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: the priorities UH, as you first win the war and 391 00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 1: we're still in the thick of it, it's been such 392 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 1: a somber, an appropriately somber interview. I wanted to try 393 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: and tease out maybe a little circles of light if 394 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 1: you look at the financial markets. Obviously, there's quite a 395 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 1: lot of exuberance around the productivity improvements that could come 396 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: from UH COVID forcing companies to do things differently, forcing 397 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 1: INTOVID juels to do things differently, changing supply chains, all 398 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: of these things. Is there a part of that story 399 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: that could also apply to developing countries? Is there any 400 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: silver linings that you see or opportunities it could see? 401 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 1: Look crisis because they disrupt the very core of the 402 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 1: economy and the way we work, the way we think 403 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 1: can lead. And I mentioned wars by the way wars 404 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 1: have been, you know, not exactly the way one would 405 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,240 Speaker 1: like to go about it, but wars have been period 406 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 1: of a very intense technological innovation. And in this case, 407 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 1: I think one of the fallouts that I'm on the 408 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 1: positive side is also when you look at globally the 409 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: amount of medical research that has been you know, brought 410 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 1: to bear during the COVID pandemic, and one thinks of 411 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: positive externalities that that constant traded effort in medicine that 412 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: we have seen in in in this in this UH crisis, 413 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 1: I think we can't really measure what some of the 414 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: benefits UH that may may come from that. But you know, look, 415 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 1: I think you know, one can say very little at 416 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: this stage. I think there's still a margin of uncertainty. 417 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,280 Speaker 1: And you know, what the new normal UH in terms 418 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: of productivity, in terms of potential output is gonna look like. 419 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: And you know, I don't want to be a wet rag, 420 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,879 Speaker 1: but I think before we get to that silver lining, 421 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: I think the emerging markets are going to have a 422 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 1: very rough road. You talk about fiscal stimulus, but one 423 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,719 Speaker 1: big source of stimulus and liquidity during this crisis has 424 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 1: also been that banks and financial institutions have adopted forbearance 425 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 1: and in grace peer it or households and firms to 426 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:06,159 Speaker 1: repay their loans. Um we don't know what awaits us 427 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 1: when many of those grace periods come to an end. 428 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 1: Who will be insolvent and who will be a liquid 429 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: That's a risk still, so you know we still have 430 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 1: a rough road in the interroom. Well, Dr Ryan Hart, 431 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: you have given us plenty to think about, not all 432 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: of it upbeat, but certainly serious and important. And you've 433 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 1: also reminded us what a privilege is for the world 434 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: back to have someone with your historical frame sitting in 435 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 1: that job as chief economists. Thank you so much, Thank 436 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 1: you a pleasure, Thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We have 437 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 1: our winter break now. When we come back in April, 438 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: I hope the world will look a bit brighter than 439 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 1: it does today. If I speak to anyone really fascinating. 440 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: In the meantime, I will be putting it on this speed, 441 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: so keep an eye out for that, and remember you 442 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 1: can always find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app 443 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can get 444 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 1: more economic news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics by following 445 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 1: as Economics on Twitter. This episode was produced by Magnus Hendrickson, 446 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: with special thanks to Peter Coy, Jamie Rush, Dr Carmen 447 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 1: Reinhardt and all at Bloomberg The Year Ahead. Lucy Meekin 448 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: is the executive producer of Stephanomics, and the head of 449 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Levy.