Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Floomberg Sound on.
Speaker 1: This president has pledged to do all he can to
Speaker 1: ensure that we have an ample supply of oil. Problem
Speaker 1: was that we continue to talk to Metrian like he
Speaker 1: was serious. He was Floomberg Sound on politics, policy, and
Speaker 1: perspective from DC's top names. Democrats, because of redistricting being
Speaker 1: forced to run against each other and neither one of
Speaker 1: them being willing to step down as incumbents those expectations
Speaker 1: set by the progressive left, they could never deliver the
Speaker 1: votes for those Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. It is shaping up to be another busy
Speaker 1: week in our nation's capital. Lawmakers are simultaneously working on
Speaker 1: passing billions in funding for semiconductors. Well, Democrats see if
Speaker 1: they can salvage a deal that has gone from an
Speaker 1: all inclusive package to a much narrower bill, mostly focused
Speaker 1: on healthcare issues. I'm Emily Wilkin in today for Joe
Speaker 1: Matthew and just a minute, we're going to be joined
Speaker 1: by Congressman Andy Levin, a Democratic lawmaker from Michigan, to
Speaker 1: break down some of the latest in Congress as well
Speaker 1: as his upcoming primary really really interesting one. They're well
Speaker 1: joining me now as Congressman Andy Levin. He is a
Speaker 1: Michigan Democrat, my home state, UM, and he's got a
Speaker 1: number of different things going on right now. Congressman, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us today. I wanted to
Speaker 1: kind of just jump in with the fallout from last
Speaker 1: Friday's news on the reconciliations bill, that package that Democrats
Speaker 1: are trying to move initially called Build Back Better to Know,
Speaker 1: it's got a couple of different nicknames now. But Senator
Speaker 1: Joe Manchin says he's not gonna be able to support
Speaker 1: climate provisions in the bill as well as additional taxes.
Speaker 1: I just want to start by getting your perspective here.
Speaker 1: Are you willing to go forward on a bill without
Speaker 1: those key provisions. Well, we'll have to see where where
Speaker 1: we are when the ink dries on the negotiations. There's
Speaker 1: no question, Emily that the healthcare measures are incredibly import
Speaker 1: and then I strongly support them. But you know, Joe
Speaker 1: Mansion truly is lucy. He just keeps moving the football
Speaker 1: and moving the football every time the rest of the
Speaker 1: team runs up to kick it. And I mean, come on,
Speaker 1: he's he's changed his position over and over and over.
Speaker 1: He's gone back on promises over and over and over.
Speaker 1: So I support those healthcare measures, Let's see what they
Speaker 1: really look like when, uh, the negotiations are concluded. Because
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of trust left for Joe Mansion.
Speaker 1: I mean, what does this mean though, going going forward?
Speaker 1: I mean, I know that you don't trust Joe Mansion,
Speaker 1: but you have to have his vote if you want
Speaker 1: to move this reconciliation package forward. So what's the game
Speaker 1: plan for Democrats who do want to see something pass?
Speaker 1: I know, but are are sort of working with this
Speaker 1: Uh you know, as you mentioned, someone who's moved the
Speaker 1: football away at the last minute a number of times. Right. Well,
Speaker 1: so I mean we have to see We've said for
Speaker 1: a long time that we have to see what fifty
Speaker 1: senators will agree upon, all fifty who caucus with Democrats,
Speaker 1: and then that's what we can pass. I mean, what
Speaker 1: this says in the bigger picture is that America is
Speaker 1: facing a huge crisis. And in earlier times when we
Speaker 1: face huge crises, like in the thirties and the sixties,
Speaker 1: FDR had huge majorities in the House, in the Senate
Speaker 1: lb J had huge majorities in the House and the Senate,
Speaker 1: and it wasn't a bunch of handhold you know, bipartisan handholding.
Speaker 1: Democrats passed the architecture of our democracy that we take
Speaker 1: for granted to today in the thirties and the sixties,
Speaker 1: the Fair Labor Standards Act, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and
Speaker 1: so right now we have a huge crisis of income
Speaker 1: and wealth inequality. We've got a health crisis and global
Speaker 1: economic crisis, and we're trying our planet and we've got
Speaker 1: to stop doing that. And America needs to lead the
Speaker 1: way so we capture the technology and the great jobs
Speaker 1: that come with leading an economic change. So we Joe
Speaker 1: Mancher no, Joe Manchon, we have to find a way
Speaker 1: to move ahead and lead on climate change policy. And
Speaker 1: you know I'm going to keep fighting to do that. Well,
Speaker 1: what does that look like? I mean right now, is
Speaker 1: this up to executive actions from the Biden administration. It's
Speaker 1: partly enough to executive actions, and it's partly bucking history
Speaker 1: and making having a clear message to the American people
Speaker 1: that your choice is being made super obvious. Do you
Speaker 1: want to vote in enough Democrats so we can move
Speaker 1: this country forward, or do you want to have the
Speaker 1: party that had doesn't want to do anything on climate change,
Speaker 1: or not nearly enough on sensible gun reform, that doesn't
Speaker 1: want women to have control over their own bodies, of
Speaker 1: their own decisions. America really has an amazing choice to
Speaker 1: make in November, and we have to send the message
Speaker 1: very clearly that if you want to have an economy
Speaker 1: that works for working folks, you've got to get enough
Speaker 1: Democrats in there so we can and move forward on
Speaker 1: climate change policy and create all these great jobs that
Speaker 1: would come about if we lead on electric vehicles, lead
Speaker 1: on offshore wind, on shore wind. So basically this all
Speaker 1: this all comes down to the election done. This is
Speaker 1: sort of that Democrats need to message and really get
Speaker 1: out to voters that if they want these things in
Speaker 1: the policy to happen, that they need to not just
Speaker 1: elect Democrats, but elect more Democrats. Is that going to work?
Speaker 1: Because I know a lot of Democratic voters. They're frustrated
Speaker 1: with their party right now. They're frustrated for the lack
Speaker 1: of things that they're going there they're seeing getting done.
Speaker 1: Is it enough to tell them to go out and vote?
Speaker 1: I think there's two Well, no, it's it's several things.
Speaker 1: One is it's more effective messaging. Uh. And but the
Speaker 1: second thing is you mentioned it. Yes, we need our
Speaker 1: president to take more executive action forgive fifty dollars of
Speaker 1: student loan debt, really move forward on whatever executive actions
Speaker 1: he can take on climate change policy. Um. So there's
Speaker 1: there's executive actions he can take across a number of
Speaker 1: areas that will really help send the message the American
Speaker 1: people that the presidents on your side, The Democrats are
Speaker 1: on your side. The Republicans are sticking with this idea
Speaker 1: of trickle down economics where you just make it good
Speaker 1: for the billionaires and the huge corporations and somehow that's
Speaker 1: going to benefit everybody. By now, we all know that
Speaker 1: just does not work. We've got a raise way just
Speaker 1: free up Americans to form unions and bargain collectively. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, we have to have healthcare for everybody in
Speaker 1: this country. And I'm telling you, Emily, if we send strong,
Speaker 1: clear messages on kitchen table issues, the American people will
Speaker 1: vote for us. Speaking about unions, UM, I wanted to
Speaker 1: get a little into the wonky weeds, but there's something
Speaker 1: really big that's actually happening on Capitol Hell today, for
Speaker 1: the first time, congressional staffers are protected if they want
Speaker 1: to form a union. So you've seen eight offices today,
Speaker 1: staffers from offices come forward openly say that they're beginning
Speaker 1: the process of union unionization. This is something really brand
Speaker 1: new for the Hill. We haven't seen this done this before.
Speaker 1: But Congressman Love and I know that you obviously have
Speaker 1: a passed as a labor organizer. Your office is one
Speaker 1: of the eight that went ahead and filed that petition
Speaker 1: today to begin the unionization process. And I just wanted
Speaker 1: to get a sense what you think the change that
Speaker 1: would come to Congress would be. Obviously, this is an
Speaker 1: office by office process. Not every office, not every staffer
Speaker 1: will be unionized, but there will be some unions out there.
Speaker 1: How is that going to change what we see from Congress? Right? Well,
Speaker 1: in that fantastic account you just gave Emily, you just
Speaker 1: missed one thing. It's my resolution that makes this possible.
Speaker 1: How could I forget? How could I forget? Well in
Speaker 1: my you know, I wanted to let you say that, Congressman,
Speaker 1: I wanted to go and you know, if you want
Speaker 1: to talk about my primary rates, I mean, it's a
Speaker 1: huge difference. That's that's coming up next. Focus on the
Speaker 1: US right now. I promise we'll get to your primary.
Speaker 1: No problem. But I'm the you know, I'm the shop
Speaker 1: steward of the Congress, and I'm so proud that we
Speaker 1: passed my resolution. Emily. This is huge. It's huge because
Speaker 1: just it's a big workforce. People work in the U. S.
Speaker 1: House of Representatives in our district offices are DC offices
Speaker 1: and our committees, and then the office is like the
Speaker 1: leadership offices who are covered by this. Secondly, it's huge
Speaker 1: because this is the Congress of the United States. And
Speaker 1: gosh darn' it. If Democrats want to say, we're going
Speaker 1: to help free up workers to have more power, more voice,
Speaker 1: and say and in the economy and in society, we
Speaker 1: better walk to walk and give the opportunity to our
Speaker 1: own workers. And so I'm today we passed my resolution
Speaker 1: in May. Today, July two is the day that these
Speaker 1: rights took effect. And boom, as you said, eight offices,
Speaker 1: including my own, the workers filed to be recognized and
Speaker 1: to formalize their right to have collective bargaining. And this
Speaker 1: will make Congress a better place to work. People. We've
Speaker 1: have less turnover, more happiness. These young people generally who
Speaker 1: work for us, they work so hard. They make democracy function. Literally,
Speaker 1: they draft the bills, they talked to the constituents, and
Speaker 1: so they really deserve to have a fair workplace and
Speaker 1: just workplace. And I'm I'm just so proud of them for,
Speaker 1: you know, standing up for their own rights as they
Speaker 1: have in in getting this far. So it's a really
Speaker 1: big day. You know, a lot of people are saying
Speaker 1: this is the biggest change today, is the biggest change
Speaker 1: in working commissions on Capitol Hill in thirty years. And
Speaker 1: I'm just proud to have played some little partner. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we'll definitely see what what the next steps are. Certainly
Speaker 1: we're beginning today on what's going to be a process
Speaker 1: of which we will continue to follow. I did say
Speaker 1: that I would get to your primary. I absolutely want to.
Speaker 1: You're in a competitive primary, one of the few in
Speaker 1: the nation where you have two incumbent Democrats going up
Speaker 1: against each other. You and your colleague Hayley Stevens. You've
Speaker 1: recently ran a couple of ads calling her out for
Speaker 1: changing her p sational medicare accepting money from a pack
Speaker 1: that's also donating to Republicans, And I'm just sort of wondering,
Speaker 1: why why this strategy? Now? Why have negative ads on
Speaker 1: a colleague that that you had a working relationship within
Speaker 1: the past. Well, so we're, you know, the Michigan's losing
Speaker 1: a seat. So we're kind of mushed together in this district,
Speaker 1: and so the voters have to choose, and I'm I think,
Speaker 1: how do they decide? And I'm just drawing a contrast.
Speaker 1: I mean, I've been backed by Cecile Richards and Heather
Speaker 1: Booth and others because of my really strong activism on
Speaker 1: reproductive rights over a long period of time. I've been
Speaker 1: backed by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders because I didn't
Speaker 1: flip flop. I've got to care for all. I'm for
Speaker 1: healthcare as a universal human rights. I've been backed by
Speaker 1: every environmental group, all levin that have endorsed in this
Speaker 1: race because I am one of the co sponsors is
Speaker 1: a Green New Deal. I've written climate change legislation with
Speaker 1: Shared Brown, with Elizabeth Warren and others. So I will
Speaker 1: absolutely draw a contrast so the voters can figure out
Speaker 1: who's their champion. And what I'm saying is I'm the
Speaker 1: principal candidate who's not going to take money from special
Speaker 1: interest that back insurrectionist Republicans. It's not that they back republicans,
Speaker 1: ati least that they backed Republicans who voted to end
Speaker 1: our democracy. I just won't be part of that. And
Speaker 1: I'm the progressive candidate, and I'm the pragmatic candidate who
Speaker 1: gets a lot done. I mean, gov Track ranked me
Speaker 1: number four in the freshman class after our first term
Speaker 1: in terms of leadership, and they ranked her seventy one
Speaker 1: out of So I just think that when you're running
Speaker 1: for office, you have to help with voters. See what
Speaker 1: the differences differences, that different differentiation, I know it is
Speaker 1: going to play a big part. Congressman Andy Levin of Michigan,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for taking the time to join
Speaker 1: us today. Tomorrow, we're actually going to be hearing from
Speaker 1: Congressman Hayley Stevens, so stick around for that. Coming up
Speaker 1: in just a minute, we're gonna dive further into the primaries.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg sound On on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Welcome back to sound On. This is Emily Wilkins filling
Speaker 1: in today for Joe Matthew. Well, we're going to stay
Speaker 1: for a little bit on the Democrat versus Democrat primary
Speaker 1: in Michigan's eleventh district. Really interesting. You have you had
Speaker 1: a redistricting go on this last year, means that you've
Speaker 1: got a number of incumbents that are matched up against
Speaker 1: each other. Please make for some of the most really
Speaker 1: interesting races they tell you about the direction that the
Speaker 1: party is going. And this particular one between Congressman Andy Levin,
Speaker 1: who we just had on and Haley Stevens will have
Speaker 1: on tomorrow, is very growing, very heated. Eleven doubling down
Speaker 1: on his negative interviews against Stephen seeing that he's just
Speaker 1: drawing a contrast. We actually have one of those election
Speaker 1: ads funded by Drace J. Street Action Fund, supporting Levin
Speaker 1: and calling out Stevens for some of of her past
Speaker 1: move Hayley Stevens is taking hundreds of thousands of dollars
Speaker 1: from a group that's supporting one and nine Republicans who
Speaker 1: voted to overturn the election. Republican billionaires gave the group
Speaker 1: millions to defeat Democrats like Andy Levin, even after we
Speaker 1: saw how Republicans nearly overturned the election. On January six,
Speaker 1: Stevens keeps accepting the group's money and support. No campaign
Speaker 1: cash is worth abandoning our Democrats. And so yeah, that
Speaker 1: is an add noting the amount of funding that Hayley
Speaker 1: Stevens have gotten from a I pack. It's been a
Speaker 1: huge amount. But even at this point, the race is
Speaker 1: still expected to be a relatively close one, but you're
Speaker 1: seeing more of these negative ads go up and want
Speaker 1: to bring in our all star panel of Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 1: contributors Genie she and Zano and Rick Davis. Rick talked
Speaker 1: to me a little bit about the strategy that Andy
Speaker 1: Lovin's using here. When do candidates go negative and what
Speaker 1: do they hope to achieve from that? Well, it's it's
Speaker 1: it's really a timing against you know, when voters are
Speaker 1: really looking at the election, and it's usually you know,
Speaker 1: sixty days before the primary or general election, and and
Speaker 1: and and some go early. Some as you know, start
Speaker 1: all at the very beginning of the campaign start pounding away.
Speaker 1: But in this case, I mean, you know, these are
Speaker 1: two people who work together. You know, I thought your
Speaker 1: interview with and He was kind of interesting, and it's like, hey,
Speaker 1: you know, you guys did a lot together in your colleagues,
Speaker 1: and there aren't that many instances where you know, you're
Speaker 1: you're pitting two existing colleagues together in one district because
Speaker 1: of redistricting, and so uh, you know. But but look,
Speaker 1: this has been a pretty raucous campaign today. And and
Speaker 1: my guess is part of what decision you make when
Speaker 1: you go negative is that you're losing. And when you're
Speaker 1: losing and you go negative, that usually is an indication
Speaker 1: that this is the last ditch effort to try and
Speaker 1: repair the outcome of the election. And for you, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, you have this primary coming up at this
Speaker 1: point on August two, so it's only a handful of
Speaker 1: weeks away. At this point, early voting has already started
Speaker 1: in the district. UM, and so a number of people
Speaker 1: I know, I was actually in the district the other
Speaker 1: week doing some reporting on this race. A number of
Speaker 1: people they've already requested their absentee belts and they've started
Speaker 1: to fill things out. So it's it's here, it's going
Speaker 1: on right now. UM, And Jeanie, I just wanted to
Speaker 1: come just just ask you a little bit about what
Speaker 1: this race is going to mean because Hayley Stevens and
Speaker 1: Andy Levin, they are pretty similar candidates. I mean, you
Speaker 1: can make the argument that Levin is a little bit
Speaker 1: more progressive, but if you look at their voting records,
Speaker 1: you look at their time in office, it's widely the same.
Speaker 1: So what our voters going to decide on here, Well,
Speaker 1: you know, I think that part of what they're getting is,
Speaker 1: you know, just listening to your interview with Levin as
Speaker 1: he is really trying to stress his progressive you know, kudos,
Speaker 1: and that is something that I think is going to
Speaker 1: be appealing to many people in the district. But you know,
Speaker 1: I'm reflecting back as you were talking to Levin that
Speaker 1: many Democrats were utterly furious with him for not running
Speaker 1: in the tenth district, where two thirds of his constituents are.
Speaker 1: He chose to run against a colleague, as you've been
Speaker 1: talking about, and that has you know, sort of you know,
Speaker 1: listening to the ads that have been going on, it
Speaker 1: has gotten really really ugly out there, and negative ads
Speaker 1: do work. People get information from them. So they're trying
Speaker 1: to stress the positive things about themselves, like his progressive tendencies,
Speaker 1: but also the negatives about their opponents, and those stick
Speaker 1: in the minds of voters and that's something they'll take
Speaker 1: into account. I mean, Genie, if Lovin does wind up
Speaker 1: pulling out a victory here on August two, does that
Speaker 1: sort of say that the Democratic Party overall is moving
Speaker 1: to a more progressive place than it has in previous years.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm always hesitant to read that much into it.
Speaker 1: We have a lot of races this cycle, and I
Speaker 1: always think that the local issues matter, the local candidates matter,
Speaker 1: constituent service as you know, as somebody from Michigan matters,
Speaker 1: So all those things are taken to account. But to
Speaker 1: your point, there is a good deal of energy on
Speaker 1: the progressive left. So if progressives are able to pull
Speaker 1: this out, particularly when they don't have as much funding
Speaker 1: as their challengers, that does say something at least about
Speaker 1: which Democrats are going out in these primary elections. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: for our primaries, turnout is still fairly low, so we
Speaker 1: can't read too much into it. By way of the
Speaker 1: general election are certainly a presidential race. And Jimmie, I
Speaker 1: know you had that now on the head right there.
Speaker 1: It's turnout, turnout, turnout, who can inspire the most people,
Speaker 1: particularly for for this race. But since you did bring
Speaker 1: it up real quick, I am going to note that
Speaker 1: you do have Michigan's tenth district right next door. It
Speaker 1: does include part of Levin's old district. Um and that
Speaker 1: way you don't have an incumbent running in it. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's a district that leans a little bit Republican. And
Speaker 1: I'm wondering, Rick Davison in the last sort of thirty
Speaker 1: seconds we have right here, is it possible for Democrats
Speaker 1: to even win a district like that this year? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't think so. You know, we've been talking about
Speaker 1: this uh district that Levinson and that's actually probably gotten
Speaker 1: more democratic. I mean, it was a Hillary Clinton district
Speaker 1: when she lost Michigan to Donald Trump, and so this
Speaker 1: is a this is a solid Democratic district. But I
Speaker 1: think anything short of this ten points out and Republicans
Speaker 1: have a good chance of picking up some of these uh,
Speaker 1: weaker Democratic districts. Great Genie, thank you guys so much.
Speaker 1: I know that you'll be sticking around. We'll be talking
Speaker 1: with you in just a minute. But first we're gonna
Speaker 1: have a conversation with Bregg Duro about the Maryland primaries tomorrow.
Speaker 1: I'm Emily Wilkins. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting Live. From our
Speaker 1: nation's capital, Bloomberg to New York, Bloomberg eleven, Frio to Boston,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine
Speaker 1: sixty to the Country Serious x M General one nine
Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew.
Speaker 1: We are one d thirteen days away from the November
Speaker 1: midterm elections. But if you live in Maryland, your election
Speaker 1: day is tomorrow at least for the primaries, and there
Speaker 1: are some interesting ones out there. We're going to get
Speaker 1: a full breakdown of the races to watch up next
Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Government's Greg Darrow, our elections guru. Here. Well,
Speaker 1: right now we are joined by Greg Borrow, Bloomberg Government
Speaker 1: election reporter and my number one person to turn to
Speaker 1: when I have any sort of questions on elections, on districts,
Speaker 1: on how things are playing out. Greg, Thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us today. Um, I just I'm going
Speaker 1: to toss this right over to you because you know
Speaker 1: this so well. What are the key races in Maryland
Speaker 1: to watch tomorrow? Yeah? Well, Maryland is the only state
Speaker 1: holding a primary in the month of July, so what
Speaker 1: sort of has the months to itself. And the top
Speaker 1: primary I think to watch is in the fourth Congressional District,
Speaker 1: which is an overwhelmingly Democratic area that includes most of
Speaker 1: Prince George's County in a small part of Montgomery County
Speaker 1: which are but Washington, d C. It's basically a two
Speaker 1: person race in the Democratic primary between Donna Edwards, who
Speaker 1: was the congresswoman for that area from seventeen and Glenn Ivy,
Speaker 1: was Prince George's County's top prosecutor who sought this seat
Speaker 1: in and finished as the runner up to the current Congressman,
Speaker 1: Anthony Brown, who's leaving an open to run for state
Speaker 1: attorney General. And Edwards and Ivy I think see eye
Speaker 1: eye on policy, and so we're seeing a lot of
Speaker 1: outside money spent that pretty much magnify the very small
Speaker 1: differences between the two candidates. But whoever wins this primary,
Speaker 1: Emily is a shirt of winning on November the eighth,
Speaker 1: because it's such an overwhelmingly Democratic district. And we know
Speaker 1: we've talked about a lot about redistricting. How much did
Speaker 1: Maryland's maps actually change in the past year, And who's
Speaker 1: been affected by these changes. It was quite a story.
Speaker 1: I mean, Maryland was one of those states where Democrats
Speaker 1: had full control of registricting have to start, meaning they
Speaker 1: had the control of the They controlled overwhelming majorities in
Speaker 1: the state legislature. There is a Republican governor of Maryland,
Speaker 1: Larry Hogan, but so democratic is Maryland that the legislature
Speaker 1: could override his veto And that's what they did on
Speaker 1: the very first map that they put forward that could
Speaker 1: have elected Democrats in all eight congressional districts in Maryland. Um.
Speaker 1: But a court, a state court in Maryland, struck that
Speaker 1: map down and told the legislature to draw a remedial map,
Speaker 1: which it did, and Larry Hogan signed UM that favors
Speaker 1: clearly favors Republicans in one district on the Eastern Shore,
Speaker 1: but also gives the party a shot at a second district,
Speaker 1: the sixth district that Democratic Congressman David Trone will be defending.
Speaker 1: So um, it could have been eight to zero Democratic
Speaker 1: and a good good night for Democrats and the old
Speaker 1: the initial map, this map, I think it's a six
Speaker 1: to one to one map. You know, you've got one
Speaker 1: clearly Republican district and one more competitive district. Still, I
Speaker 1: mean that it favors Democrats, but Republicans are probably can
Speaker 1: expect more than the Republicans will probably do better than
Speaker 1: he could have expected otherwise. Yeah, I know that's the
Speaker 1: story for a couple of different states, like New York.
Speaker 1: With that head it's mount finalized, it looked really great
Speaker 1: for Democrats, and then they're like, oh, nope, you need
Speaker 1: another map, and now you're seeing many more competitive seats. Greg,
Speaker 1: I know that, as you mentioned, Maryland's kind of the
Speaker 1: big state with primaries in the month of July. Let's
Speaker 1: look ahead just a little bit to the month of August.
Speaker 1: What are the next couple of interesting primaries coming up.
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about Michigan's eleventh district with Hayley
Speaker 1: Stevens and Andy Levin, but what else is on your radar.
Speaker 1: There's quite a lot going on in August, which is
Speaker 1: might be a slow month legislatively. That's when members tend
Speaker 1: to get out of town. They don't want to be
Speaker 1: in DC in August. But you have a lot of
Speaker 1: elections going on back in their home districts and states.
Speaker 1: Um On August two, the first Tuesday, of the month,
Speaker 1: you have a five states voting Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Ury,
Speaker 1: and Washington State. UM. I'd note that three of the
Speaker 1: House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump over January
Speaker 1: six will be defending their seats on that date. UM.
Speaker 1: You have in Michigan you have a Republican Congressman Peter
Speaker 1: Meyer from the Grand Rapids area as a primary challenge
Speaker 1: of Democrats are also contesting that seat in November. And
Speaker 1: then in Washington State you have Jamie Herrera Butler in
Speaker 1: the third district in the southwestern part of the state.
Speaker 1: And then in the kind of central Washington you have
Speaker 1: Dan new House, who also voted doing peach Trump, will
Speaker 1: be defending his seat. Washington uses it what's known as
Speaker 1: the top two primary, where everyone runs on one ballot.
Speaker 1: So UM, you need to finish better than third to
Speaker 1: avoid getting bounced in the primary. And that's been difficult
Speaker 1: for some of those Republicans who did vote to impeach Trump.
Speaker 1: I mean, of that group, I know a number of
Speaker 1: them have decided to retire. But then I believe you
Speaker 1: saw Tom Rice down in South Carolina. He lost his
Speaker 1: primary pretty badly, and most of it is just because
Speaker 1: you know, he has that conservative record, but he voted
Speaker 1: to impeach Trump, and and and that seemed to be enough.
Speaker 1: That was And then in California, Republican Congressman David Valadeo
Speaker 1: narrowly advanced in his primary out there. Um, Trump didn
Speaker 1: really intervened in that race. I think maybe because of
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy, who's neighbors a district that Valadeo has, may
Speaker 1: have prevailed upon the former president to stay out of
Speaker 1: that race. But Valadeo is probably the only Republican who
Speaker 1: could win that district in November. Uh So, Yeah, ten
Speaker 1: of the ten Republicans to do impeached Trump. Uh six
Speaker 1: of them were seeking re election for them decided to retire.
Speaker 1: So we've had two of them had to go through
Speaker 1: the have had to go through the crucible of of primaries.
Speaker 1: And then you've got four left. Three as we mentioned
Speaker 1: on August, a second and then the last one is
Speaker 1: the biggest one probably at them all. On August Liz
Speaker 1: Cheney in Wyoming. Yeah, that one is going to be
Speaker 1: particularly interesting. Is there any chance at this point that
Speaker 1: that Liz Cheney actually winds up pulling out a victory
Speaker 1: here it's really hard to see based on the polling.
Speaker 1: I mean, police shows are well behind UM, and it
Speaker 1: seems like the the the anti Cheney vote has coalesced
Speaker 1: around one candidate, Harriet Hagman, who's the choice of Foreign
Speaker 1: President Trump. UM. If there had been say four or
Speaker 1: five serious candidates who could split the anti Cheney vote
Speaker 1: and allow her to win with a plurality, I mean
Speaker 1: that would that would certainly benefit her. But because the uh,
Speaker 1: most of the anti Cheney vote will be will accrue
Speaker 1: to Harriet Hagman, I mean, that's that's not a good
Speaker 1: sign for for Cheney. Yeah, it's going to definitely certainly
Speaker 1: be a difficult race for her. I know you were
Speaker 1: tweeting out today, Uh, some of the folks who have
Speaker 1: donated to her, and it's really eye popping to see
Speaker 1: saw many of her colleagues have donated to her opponent,
Speaker 1: Harriet Hagman. Greg, we've only got about thirty seconds left,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna put you on the spot here with
Speaker 1: a really short answer. New York primaries are also coming up.
Speaker 1: What's the one race to watch? The member versus member
Speaker 1: matchup between Jerry Nader and Caroline Maloney to thirty year
Speaker 1: incumbents of of chair committees. Uh, they're they were forced
Speaker 1: into a into a into an incoming versus income into
Speaker 1: face off. That's the tough boat boom Greg Gerrow, Bloomberg Government.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg, Thanks so much. This is Bloomberg sound
Speaker 1: On on Bloomberg Radio. This is Emily Wilkins in today
Speaker 1: for Joe Matthew. Well, Democrats are mad, and they're mad
Speaker 1: at Joe Mansion. We heard from Congressman Andy Leven at
Speaker 1: the top of this hour. Who is He's inventing his
Speaker 1: frustration and he's really not the only one. After Mansion
Speaker 1: said on Friday that he would not support climate or
Speaker 1: tax provisions inside of larger reconciliation package. If you're wondering
Speaker 1: what that reconciliation packages, that's that build back better thing
Speaker 1: that we were all talking about. A couple of months ago.
Speaker 1: It looked like Democrats were going to be able to
Speaker 1: get something done that did include climate, that did include taxes,
Speaker 1: and then on Friday Mansion said no, uh, that that
Speaker 1: he would not be able to support it. At that time,
Speaker 1: Senator Bernie Sanders had a tough critique of his West
Speaker 1: Virginia colleague on ABC's This Week. The problem was that
Speaker 1: we continue to talk to Mansion like he was serious.
Speaker 1: He was like, this is a guy who is a
Speaker 1: major recipient of fossil fuel money. Joined now by Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributors Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis. Genie, is this
Speaker 1: anger warranted? You know? The Democratic anger at Joe Mansion
Speaker 1: is uh frustrating to some of us, and I include
Speaker 1: myself in that in part because they started out with
Speaker 1: a bill at three point five trillion dollars. I mean,
Speaker 1: let me just stress that three point five trillion dollars
Speaker 1: and if you're Briny Sanders, it was six trillions. It
Speaker 1: was thank you very much, in a fifty fifty Senate,
Speaker 1: nobody could explain what was in it. It was large,
Speaker 1: It was, you know, a massive expansion of the social
Speaker 1: safety net, and so there was no way it was
Speaker 1: going to pass. You and I have talked about this,
Speaker 1: and I this morning woke up optimistic about Democrats. If
Speaker 1: you told me they could get two bills passed the
Speaker 1: summer before mid term, saving prescription drugs, saving money on
Speaker 1: prescription drugs, and a chips bill, that's a big win
Speaker 1: for Democrats. I don't know why they just don't take it,
Speaker 1: you know, applaud themselves, clap themselves on the back, and
Speaker 1: move forward. They're frustrated, but they're frustrated and they're they're
Speaker 1: venting at Joe Mansion. And you know, the House wasn't
Speaker 1: assured to pass something that big. Look at the people
Speaker 1: who wouldn't have done anything without the change in salt
Speaker 1: for example. So you know, to me, it's there's a
Speaker 1: big win to be had here for two big bills
Speaker 1: in the summer before a really tough mid term election.
Speaker 1: They should be happy, seen a lot of optimism. They're
Speaker 1: just also noting because I don't think we've actually said
Speaker 1: it yet on this show. So at this point, what
Speaker 1: this Reconciliation bill would do is that it would allow
Speaker 1: Medicare to negotiate drug prices in theory lowering those costs
Speaker 1: of those drugs, and extend enhanced Medicare subsidies for two years. Rick,
Speaker 1: how badly do Democrats actually need to get this done
Speaker 1: at this point? Just those two items? Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: just those two items. I mean, they've been promising prescription
Speaker 1: drug relief for a long time, and they're in a
Speaker 1: majority in the House, Senate, and the White House, and
Speaker 1: so if they don't deliver it, it'll be a pretty
Speaker 1: abject failure for them. And the A C a UM
Speaker 1: subsidy issue is a time bomb. I mean, it's a
Speaker 1: huge number, and it affects thirteen million Americans, and it's
Speaker 1: it's a flaw on the law that that you really
Speaker 1: do need this subsidy to make insurance companies willing to
Speaker 1: write the policies. And and the reality is if they
Speaker 1: don't do it, it's going to have a huge backlash
Speaker 1: with thirteen million of what I would argue probably are
Speaker 1: the majority of those are their voters. So they're gonna
Speaker 1: do a lot of damage their base if they don't
Speaker 1: deliver on these two items. Certainly many people when they
Speaker 1: look at their insurance payments for healthcare, they would certainly
Speaker 1: be feeling this if Democrats cannot get something passed. G
Speaker 1: I know that you think that Democrats just need to
Speaker 1: celebrate this as a win. But when I was in
Speaker 1: Michigan talking to voters the other week, I did have
Speaker 1: a number of them say, you know, Democrats promised all
Speaker 1: this stuff in the bill. They promised childcare tax credits
Speaker 1: and pre K education and all of these other items,
Speaker 1: and they're not getting it done, and there was frustration there.
Speaker 1: I mean, if Democrats hurt themselves by by over promising
Speaker 1: and under delivering. Yes, in one word, they overpromised in
Speaker 1: a fifty fifty Senate and and Joe Biden knew it,
Speaker 1: and I think the strategy here it was an abject failure.
Speaker 1: They should not have overpromised and under delivered. You know,
Speaker 1: you're talking about the prescription drubs, the A C A subsidies,
Speaker 1: that will be the largest healthcare bill in years. It's
Speaker 1: those healthcare bills that matter to voters in eighteen it's
Speaker 1: you know, it's why the Democrats were able to capture
Speaker 1: the House. This could be a big moment for Democrats.
Speaker 1: I understand there's a lot more that people want, but
Speaker 1: when inflation as high as it is, that is not
Speaker 1: something that's going to happen. And so, yes, they overpromised
Speaker 1: and under delivered, and voters have a right to be frustrated,
Speaker 1: but they also will be happy if they get this
Speaker 1: part of this bill done. Since we're speaking on voters,
Speaker 1: I do have to of course touch on one of
Speaker 1: the number one issues on voters minds at this moment,
Speaker 1: which is the price of gas. A White House Council
Speaker 1: of Economic Advisors. Jared Bernstein spoke to Bloomberg Television earlier
Speaker 1: today about the Biden administration's plan to tackle inflation and
Speaker 1: the oil crisis. This president has pledged to do all
Speaker 1: he can to ensure that we have an ample supply
Speaker 1: of oil to ease inflationary pressure is particularly at the pump,
Speaker 1: and so his release of the strategic reserves, two barrels
Speaker 1: when you include our global partner are already in the system,
Speaker 1: and he continues to push to ensure unample global supply. Rick,
Speaker 1: I just want to get a general sense at this point.
Speaker 1: I mean, how much our gas prices going to factor
Speaker 1: into this election. I know that they're pretty high, but
Speaker 1: there's certainly many other things going on right now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're they're pretty high, but they may have peaked. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, in about half the states it's now less
Speaker 1: than four dollars a gallon, and so if it does
Speaker 1: continue to come down, it'll have a positive impact on
Speaker 1: people's attitudes. Uh, And I think that it's part of
Speaker 1: what has fueled this really negative public and prion of
Speaker 1: the president and his administration. I mean, he's got the
Speaker 1: lowest polling ratings of any modern president at this point
Speaker 1: in his administration. And a lot of that is because
Speaker 1: of inflation. And the biggest driver behind inflation are these
Speaker 1: gas prices. I mean, Rick, following that logic, then could
Speaker 1: we actually see a one eight happen here? If gas
Speaker 1: prices come down low enough, could Biden's approval rating and
Speaker 1: go back up and Democrats have more of a chance
Speaker 1: to keep the House and an spanning the Senate come November.
Speaker 1: Well that's certainly the democrats hope, right, is that gas
Speaker 1: gas prices have peaked and and his approval rating his
Speaker 1: hit bottom. And so if one can come down and
Speaker 1: the other can come up, they stand a better chance
Speaker 1: in the November elections. But look, uh, there are a
Speaker 1: lot of other things contributing to inflation. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: housing prices, food, these things continue to put pressure on
Speaker 1: upward side. So the reality is, even though they may
Speaker 1: make progress on gas prices, they may not make ultimately
Speaker 1: enough progress on inflation. And of course that's what's biting
Speaker 1: American in the wallet right now. And Genie, I just
Speaker 1: want to get your take on on this one. I mean,
Speaker 1: how closely are gas price is going to be correlated
Speaker 1: to how well Democrats and Republicans do come November. Well,
Speaker 1: the closest correlation for these mid terms is going to
Speaker 1: be presidential approval, as you were just talking about, and
Speaker 1: that is closely correlated with inflation and certainly gas prices.
Speaker 1: So it is something and that's why the President has
Speaker 1: been trying to focus on it that you know can
Speaker 1: have a huge impact in these mid terms. So you know, historically,
Speaker 1: unfortunately for the President and Democrats, you don't see much
Speaker 1: change in polling in this regard in the summer before
Speaker 1: moving into that midfall mid term election. But that aside,
Speaker 1: they're going to keep trying to address it. They're going
Speaker 1: to hope that they're able to move the needle on
Speaker 1: gas prices. But there's other factors here that can also
Speaker 1: help them. One big one would be if Donald Trump
Speaker 1: does what he is hinting on doing and announces he
Speaker 1: is going to run for president. That might be, in
Speaker 1: my view, the biggest boon for Democrats, because there's nothing
Speaker 1: that gets Democrats out then anger at Donald Trump, the
Speaker 1: idea he might run may get them out. And if
Speaker 1: this is a turnout election, that could help move the needle. Also,
Speaker 1: candidates in the Senate you know, they're going to lose
Speaker 1: the House, they may hold on or pick up a
Speaker 1: bit in the Senate, the Democrats, and that would be
Speaker 1: because some of these Senate candidates are not candidates that
Speaker 1: are able to really, you know, really appeal to voters
Speaker 1: in these states. So we're looking at Georgia, We're looking
Speaker 1: at states like Pennsylvania. So those two factors I think
Speaker 1: are really also going to potentially help Democrats. We've also
Speaker 1: touched on a couple of times the fact that there
Speaker 1: is another big piece of legislation that Democrats and Republicans
Speaker 1: are working on right now. This was supposed to be
Speaker 1: the US China Competitiveness Bill. Right now we have seen
Speaker 1: that really shrink. It's going to feel ironic to say shrink.
Speaker 1: With the next sentence, I'm going to say it's shrinked
Speaker 1: down to only fifty two billion dollars for chips and semiconductors.
Speaker 1: Rick Davis, what sort of your takeaway from the fact
Speaker 1: that they're just moving this through. Is this something that's
Speaker 1: going to also help Democrats in in the mid terms
Speaker 1: or is this something that's really going to just raise
Speaker 1: all boats for incumbents. Yeah, Emily, it is pretty sad
Speaker 1: day when if it's not over a hundred billion dollars,
Speaker 1: we don't really take it too seriously. But this is
Speaker 1: a big event. I mean, basically, what Mansion has allowed
Speaker 1: to have happened is by scuttling most of this reconciliation
Speaker 1: and bill, he's starting to get a green light from
Speaker 1: Republican leadership in the Senate to move forward with this
Speaker 1: Chips Act you seek, whatever you wanna call it, and
Speaker 1: and that will be a bipartisan win. And most of
Speaker 1: the big wins in this administration have been bipartisan wins.
Speaker 1: And so uh, even though I think it helps the administration,
Speaker 1: it gets stuff done, probably more than Republicans. Uh, it's
Speaker 1: not going to happen without Republican votes, and in this case,
Speaker 1: they'll have plenty of them. And Jennie last thirty seconds,
Speaker 1: I just wanted to see our Democrats going to be
Speaker 1: harmed by the fact that so much of the things
Speaker 1: they were pushing to get into this bill now ultimately
Speaker 1: might not make it. In the names of just doing semiconductors, no,
Speaker 1: I I think voters are not going to be as
Speaker 1: focused on what didn't get in there. I think it's
Speaker 1: better that they get this through and as Rick said,
Speaker 1: there's bipartisan support for this. John corn and tweeting over
Speaker 1: the weekend Republicans ready to move forward. Democrats should be
Speaker 1: as well. In Gena Romando, I think deserves a lot
Speaker 1: of credit for pushing this. As she said, big win
Speaker 1: for China if we don't get this done. So there's
Speaker 1: a lot of bipartisan support for pushing this through. Yeah,
Speaker 1: she was in Congress last week with a very similar
Speaker 1: message of urgency at this point, and we're gonna start
Speaker 1: seeing the Senate vote on it, but we could potentially
Speaker 1: see a House vote this week, certainly something we're going
Speaker 1: to continue to cover, probably tomorrow because I'm back. I'm
Speaker 1: going to continue hosting sound on a well, have Haley
Speaker 1: Stevens with us. But right now, Jimmie Schanzano, Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: our excellent contributors, thank you so much. See you again tomorrow.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg