Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros right here. It is
Speaker 1: me Joey p Joe Pi's APA, and today we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about the PGA Championship, which begins in just
Speaker 1: a day or so. Here we are on the precipice
Speaker 1: of another major here in golf, and we have a
Speaker 1: great guest for you from Sportsbook Wire. He's the one,
Speaker 1: the only Esta McLaren Esden. Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: taking the time out to talk to us today, and
Speaker 1: we're gonna dig into some of the favorites, some of
Speaker 1: the props, and some of the stuff that I've seen
Speaker 1: that you've verse put on betting pros as well. So
Speaker 1: are you excited for another major?
Speaker 2: My friend?
Speaker 3: Very excited, excited for every major ever, but this week especially,
Speaker 3: you know Wednesday, the videos coming in on Twitter, these
Speaker 3: practice rounds, and guys have in trouble. Just before the
Speaker 3: show started, I just saw Rory put one in the
Speaker 3: water on seventeen three what off the tee on a
Speaker 3: part of three into a twenty mile pour wind. So
Speaker 3: if he's doing that at a course where he's had
Speaker 3: unbelievable success before it's gonna be quite a tournament. And
Speaker 3: you now we write up all of that in content
Speaker 3: we do these podcasts. You know, we can't really do
Speaker 3: much about a twenty mile pour wind in part three
Speaker 3: with the water hazard in front.
Speaker 1: But no, not a fun day at the office there
Speaker 1: with that kind of a win. But look, let's talk
Speaker 1: about the course first, because I think that's always the
Speaker 1: thing we want to break down. Then we'll kind of
Speaker 1: get to the weather as well. So it's in South Carolina.
Speaker 1: Rory obviously is one of the headliners of the event.
Speaker 1: And you know, when you're looking at right now this course.
Speaker 1: Does this course favor guys like Rory is or somebody
Speaker 1: else in this field that you feel like from the
Speaker 1: course before you even get into the wind factors and
Speaker 1: some other of the elements in there, who do you
Speaker 1: think it really favors? Just from let's say a perfect setting.
Speaker 3: It favors the long hitters. This is the longest major
Speaker 3: venue there's ever been on the PGA Tour, seven eight
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy six yards. There's five par fours between
Speaker 3: four hundred and fifty and five hundred yards too longer
Speaker 3: than that so driving distance drokes ganed off the green,
Speaker 3: but also power four efficiency four fifty to five hundred.
Speaker 3: It always seems like a cop out to say the
Speaker 3: longest hitters have an advantage. That's not really the case
Speaker 3: anymore in today's day and age of golf, where everyone
Speaker 3: can hit it long. But when you're hitting it long
Speaker 3: and into a ten to twenty mile per hour wind,
Speaker 3: that length matters, and it's it's gonna be something. And
Speaker 3: outside of the length, obviously, I'm gonna and more for
Speaker 3: my long shot picks. I'm looking to guys around the green,
Speaker 3: short game, sand play. There's bunkers guarding almost every green
Speaker 3: on this course, sand dunes as well. So outside of
Speaker 3: the long hitters, you got to focus on that short
Speaker 3: game and the sand play, and that brings a lot
Speaker 3: of long shots back into play here.
Speaker 1: All right, So I know one of the long shots
Speaker 1: you like is well, I don't know how much of
Speaker 1: a long shot he really is. A plus eight hundred
Speaker 1: Brooks Koepka one of the better golfers out there. We
Speaker 1: know McElroy somewhere in that plus two hundred range over
Speaker 1: on betting pros. And if you're trying to make sure
Speaker 1: that you get the consensus, you can always head over
Speaker 1: to betting pros to get those numbers. But who are
Speaker 1: some of the other long shots, because I know last
Speaker 1: time when we talked about the Masters, we talked with
Speaker 1: Pat Mayo about taking shots on some of these guys
Speaker 1: because that's how you make money in golf wagering. Who
Speaker 1: are some of these long shots now that you think
Speaker 1: go to the forefront because of the elements and because
Speaker 1: of the course and that combination coming to fruition.
Speaker 3: Well, as you mentioned with Brooks, Koepka, absolutely bizarre to
Speaker 3: have to call him a long shot, but a plus
Speaker 3: five thousand, he pretty much is. And he missed the
Speaker 3: cut last week at the ATNT Byron Nelson. But if
Speaker 3: you look at the strokes gain stats for that tournament,
Speaker 3: he did well in the areas that he needs to
Speaker 3: This week, he was near the top of the field
Speaker 3: and strokes gained around the green and strokes seeing out
Speaker 3: the tee looking forward to that translated this course out
Speaker 3: a very high number. We saw him at the Waste
Speaker 3: Management Phoenix Open earlier this year with a number way
Speaker 3: higher than he should have and he went out and
Speaker 3: won the things. So that very much can happen again.
Speaker 3: Obviously a lot longer than that, we have Shane Lowry.
Speaker 3: He's hovering around plus eight thousand, plus nine thousand, depending
Speaker 3: on where you're looking. To me. This course has a
Speaker 3: lot of similarities to royal Port Rush where he won
Speaker 3: the Open Championship in twenty nineteen, and you know, maybe
Speaker 3: not so much in whole design that sort of thing,
Speaker 3: but a course that runs along the coast of the ocean,
Speaker 3: just like royal Port Rush in Northern Ireland. If that
Speaker 3: weather gets bad and tough, that favores a guy like
Speaker 3: Shane Lowry. Longer than that. Even still, South Africans really
Speaker 3: popping to me this week. Christian Bisweden, Hoot and Dylan
Speaker 3: for Tlly in particular, guys great short game and great
Speaker 3: sand players. For Kelly is also top ten on tour
Speaker 3: in driving distance as well, so he's dark horse here.
Speaker 3: He had a top five, finished tied for fifth and
Speaker 3: the Fall Masters didn't do so well in April, but
Speaker 3: he's competed in a major before, so that's good enough
Speaker 3: for me. This week, and with that wind and whatever
Speaker 3: weather we get, kind of leveling things off between the
Speaker 3: long hitters. If guys have to play that shorter, more
Speaker 3: controlled game. I'm going to trust in his play in
Speaker 3: the sand and around the greens.
Speaker 1: Now, let's talk about some of those top ten finishers
Speaker 1: and kind of change from who's gonna win the tournament
Speaker 1: to some other fun props and some other fun wagers
Speaker 1: that we got. Now, now you like for Telly also
Speaker 1: to finish in that top ten?
Speaker 2: Correct? Is that still the case now with the weather?
Speaker 1: I know this right up was a few days ago,
Speaker 1: but again when the elements started to creep in, just
Speaker 1: want to make sure we're still on the same path
Speaker 1: here with some of these guys, or perhaps there's a
Speaker 1: few other guys that you start to see now on
Speaker 1: that landscape that you think could finish in that top
Speaker 1: ten that really could make them want some money.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for Telly at top ten is worth a shot
Speaker 3: for me at the odds, probably a safer play as
Speaker 3: a top twenty. Shane Lower he just mentioned I like
Speaker 3: him as a top ten play as well, And then
Speaker 3: Brooks Koepka again we mentioned his outright odds are far
Speaker 3: too high. His odds for placings are also higher than
Speaker 3: they should be. So a guy who missed the cut
Speaker 3: of the Masters missed the cut last week at a
Speaker 3: lesser tournament. You know, if you can get good value
Speaker 3: on him for a top five, even the top ten finish,
Speaker 3: you gotta jump at it. Patrick can't lay even as
Speaker 3: as a top ten guy with plenty of top ten
Speaker 3: finishes of majors. I like that at plus values. So
Speaker 3: if you you need to hedge against these outrights, whether
Speaker 3: you're picking among the favorites or the long shots, it's
Speaker 3: you know, arguably never seen a better time to load
Speaker 3: up on these top five, top ten finishes rather than
Speaker 3: just thrown out at right shots.
Speaker 2: Well, here's the question for you too.
Speaker 1: Is there anybody right now that you think is a
Speaker 1: trap where you see it's maybe it's a bigger name
Speaker 1: on the board. Do you think maybe the course doesn't
Speaker 1: really suit as much as some other people might think,
Speaker 1: or the odds makers might think, or also with the
Speaker 1: elements that might be at a disadvantage because I think
Speaker 1: obviously now we're starting to see a little bit of
Speaker 1: a different turn here as you're kind of pointing out
Speaker 1: to us, is there somebody that you would stay away
Speaker 1: from them because of it? You think, you know what,
Speaker 1: maybe this guy isn't a top ten finisher, or maybe
Speaker 1: somebody who might be, you know, one of the favorites
Speaker 1: quote unquote, it might not be the best wager.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're you know, the odds aren't horribly wrong for them.
Speaker 3: But two guys who are going to get the public
Speaker 3: attention that they shouldn't Hideki Matsuyama and Colin Morricawa, the
Speaker 3: Masters and PGA Championship PGA Championship winner respectively. You know,
Speaker 3: this course just doesn't suit them. Well, it's so much
Speaker 3: longer than TPC Herding Park for Calin more Akawa, he's
Speaker 3: not a long hitter. He's first on tour and stroke
Speaker 3: Saint approach and that is a key here. But he
Speaker 3: just doesn't have the length to contend if that's going
Speaker 3: to be the issue on Saturday Sunday and then Hideki Mountsuyama.
Speaker 3: We saw him return to play last week. Did they
Speaker 3: keep Iron and Nelson at top forty finish, but just
Speaker 3: really made a mess of things around the green and
Speaker 3: putting was very inconsistent. We saw him missing within ten
Speaker 3: feet and gain strokes with the flat stick for the week.
Speaker 3: But yeah, the player around the green wasn't there for him,
Speaker 3: and you know, obviously he came out and put everything
Speaker 3: together to win the Masters. I just don't see that
Speaker 3: happening here where whether it's going to be a much
Speaker 3: bigger factor.
Speaker 1: You have an interesting take here too on best finishing
Speaker 1: position where you have a Decie Matsuyama Midas won ten
Speaker 1: versus Patrick Cantley at minus one ten. That's over at
Speaker 1: MGM Sports Book. What's your what's your feelings on this
Speaker 1: one here?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I really like Patrick cantleigh this week. He's hasn't been
Speaker 3: great this year. He won the Zozo Championship last fall,
Speaker 3: but the twenty twenty one form just hasn't been there consistently,
Speaker 3: coming off a couple of miss chats that the Masters included.
Speaker 3: But this course suits him well. He's you know, very early.
Speaker 3: He's fourth I think on tour in strokes gained around
Speaker 3: the green and he's averaging over a half stroke per
Speaker 3: round off the tee as well. So I go, who
Speaker 3: can hit it long and has that short game. That's
Speaker 3: the great combo for me. So he's the only player
Speaker 3: onto or and in this field who's averaging point five
Speaker 3: strokes per round around the green and off the tee.
Speaker 3: So if he can put that together, I'm we're getting
Speaker 3: a high number because of the recent miss cuts. I'm
Speaker 3: going to overlook those.
Speaker 2: In your opinion too.
Speaker 1: Who's coming into this tournament very hot? Like, who do
Speaker 1: you like in terms of how they're playing right now?
Speaker 1: I know you kind of talked about, you know, Kopka,
Speaker 1: but there's somebody else too that you think is kind
Speaker 1: of trending in the right direction here, because we all know,
Speaker 1: like every other sport, you know, typically there's a you know,
Speaker 1: catching lightning in a bottle or somebody who hits a
Speaker 1: hot streak. Who do you think right now is playing
Speaker 1: very well that we should keep our eyes on maybe
Speaker 1: as well this weekend.
Speaker 3: The obvious name is Jordan Spief and you know there's
Speaker 3: been no hotter player in golf this year, with the
Speaker 3: win a bunch of top tens, even another one last week.
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's tough to bet against Jordan's beef whenever
Speaker 3: he's playing like he is. But this is a guy,
Speaker 3: even still as good as he has been, he's still
Speaker 3: erratic with the driver, and I'm going to be interested
Speaker 3: to see how this course plays for a guy like that.
Speaker 3: This week I'm fading Jordan's peith entirely, and I'm i
Speaker 3: have to live and die by that. So the driver
Speaker 3: is still his biggest problem. If you have to pinpoint
Speaker 3: a problem in his twenty one game, and you know
Speaker 3: the wide fairways here at the Ocean course, but if
Speaker 3: that win picks up, they may not be long enough
Speaker 3: for a guy like him, especially if he's already spraying
Speaker 3: it and then that win catches the ball that's headed
Speaker 3: left or right, it's going to be trouble for him.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to some fun wagers too. Will
Speaker 1: there be a playoff? What are your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 1: I see on DraftKings you get a plus four hundred
Speaker 1: on the sports book there for the yes. Is that
Speaker 1: something that you're on board with?
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you look back at that twenty twelve PGA
Speaker 3: Championship leader board, really the only one we have for
Speaker 3: Keo Island after Rory McIlroy winning by eight strokes, that
Speaker 3: leaderboard bunched up in a hurry David Lynn for anyone
Speaker 3: who remembers him at five under solo runner up. But
Speaker 3: then after that there are eighteen players between one under
Speaker 3: power and four under powers. So yeah, if you take
Speaker 3: out a performance like Rory mclroy had, it's gonna be close.
Speaker 3: Then I think plus four hundred for the value for
Speaker 3: a play off that's good enough for me.
Speaker 1: And then when it comes down to wire to wire winner,
Speaker 1: do you think right now that is a wager you
Speaker 1: want to get in on or not, Because obviously the
Speaker 1: elements sometimes can really kind of make certain days erradic,
Speaker 1: especially what time people are teeing off two because that's
Speaker 1: what groupings everyone's in might affect them very differently in
Speaker 1: the morning versus as you get later to the afternoon.
Speaker 1: So does that now become a wager to stay away
Speaker 1: from or something that you actually think you can make
Speaker 1: money on.
Speaker 3: No, I like this one, especially when you look at
Speaker 3: the Thursday morning tea times. You have a power group
Speaker 3: of McElroy, Koepka and more Kawa I believe no, sorry,
Speaker 3: Thomas McElroy and cap So yeah, you'll look at those
Speaker 3: three three players in the world. If one of them
Speaker 3: goes out and posts a low score Thursday morning before
Speaker 3: the wins potentially get much worse, then those guys are
Speaker 3: gonna be tough to beat come Friday and the weekends.
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's the angle you have to play. And
Speaker 3: it kind of piggybacks off of the playoff prop as well, if, oh,
Speaker 3: if any of those guys or somebody else goes out
Speaker 3: and posts a low round Thursday morning, there's gonna be
Speaker 3: a tough course in tough conditions to play backed up on.
Speaker 2: All Right, there you go.
Speaker 1: Before we part ways with the Eston again, you can
Speaker 1: follow him over on the Twitter machine over at Esten
Speaker 1: McLaren on Twitter, and please check out his work not
Speaker 1: only on betting pros, but also check out his work
Speaker 1: at sportsbook Wire. Eston, what are your other parting shots here?
Speaker 1: Other things that you look at the board that you
Speaker 1: feel like there's opportunity from the wagering side or maybe
Speaker 1: even from the DFS side.
Speaker 2: Too, if people want to get involved with that.
Speaker 1: How do you kind of see the rest of this
Speaker 1: weekend now as we're getting closer to everyone teeing off
Speaker 1: here after the practice round.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So for DFS especially, I would diversify the Thursday
Speaker 3: tea times. You gotta have some more early morning and
Speaker 3: some late afternoon. I think last I checked the weather
Speaker 3: for Kiowa. The weather or the winds are down early
Speaker 3: in the morning and then down again late afternoons. So
Speaker 3: you got to try to split your six man team
Speaker 3: whoever's going to catch either end of those waves, I
Speaker 3: would stay away from kind of that mid day tier.
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's you know, it's an ocean course, so
Speaker 3: that weather forecast it may not mean much, and that's
Speaker 3: that's why you got to just kind of spread it around,
Speaker 3: do those one hundred and fifty lineups whatever many you're
Speaker 3: able to do, and get the best mix of tea
Speaker 3: times throughout the day, and then obviously things can turn
Speaker 3: around on Friday as well. But yeah, to mention again,
Speaker 3: for those lineups, the favorites are going to be the
Speaker 3: long hitters, their prices such a draftkingspan, duel, orever. And
Speaker 3: then a lot of the values are in those good
Speaker 3: short game guys and the bottom tiers that you can
Speaker 3: save your money there. So I like that as a
Speaker 3: split as well, and kind of hedging either way in
Speaker 3: both you fast and in betting. I like long hitters
Speaker 3: and the best short game guys.
Speaker 2: There you go. It's a really good approach. So hopefully
Speaker 2: all the approaches look as good as yours.
Speaker 1: Do this week as we go ahead, it should be
Speaker 1: an interesting week of golf. Nonetheless, Eston, I want to
Speaker 1: thank you again so much for your time and hopping
Speaker 1: in with us, just talk a little PGA. I hope everybody
Speaker 1: feels that they are confident now to go out there
Speaker 1: and go make some fun wagers over that, and again
Speaker 1: make sure you're following us over at Betting Pros and
Speaker 1: check out all the great content at Betting Pros, including
Speaker 1: all of our consensus over there as well. Again, follow
Speaker 1: him on Twitter at Eston McLaren and of course you
Speaker 1: can follow me at jops APS seventeen. That'll do it
Speaker 1: for us, but the story of the game goes on.
Speaker 1: We'll see you next, Dodd kids,