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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show.

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Speaker 4: Good morning, and welcome to Counterpoints.

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Speaker 5: Crystal.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much for taking Ryan's place while he

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Speaker 4: enjoys a nice vacation this week, a hard earned vacation

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Speaker 4: this week.

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Speaker 5: It's great to have you here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's my pleasure. I'm excited about the show we

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Speaker 1: have planned. We've actually decided to do this what we're

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Speaker 1: affectionately calling the Karens for Counterpoints panel, So we're bringing

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Speaker 1: in some conservative ladies. It was actually my idea. I

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Speaker 1: don't why I decided that I wanted to be out

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Speaker 1: numbered on the show today, but bringing some conservative ladies

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Speaker 1: to tackle some questions about you know, Jade Vance and

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Speaker 1: how Republicans should be playing abortion. I also want to

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Speaker 1: get there weigh in on who Kamala Harris's VP pick

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Speaker 1: might be should be who they're sort of most worried

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Speaker 1: about being on the ticket, So that should be really

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Speaker 1: fun looking.

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Speaker 3: Forward to that.

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Speaker 1: Lots of other news though, Middle East once again on

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Speaker 1: the brink of chaos. We've had two major assassinations by

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Speaker 1: Israel in the span of twelve hours. Doctor Tree de

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Speaker 1: Parsi is going to join us to break down what

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Speaker 1: this could mean and where we could be heading, and

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Speaker 1: the answers are frankly terrifying. Also got new polls to

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Speaker 1: dig into Project twenty twenty five in disarray, So lots

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Speaker 1: to tackle this morning.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, and producer Griffin has been kind enough to

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Speaker 4: put this element a one for us to share.

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Speaker 5: Some folks remember.

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Speaker 4: Some folks remember I left the Federalists a couple of

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Speaker 4: months ago and joined Unheard, and the goal all along

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Speaker 4: was to launch a new show called Undercurrents, and it's up,

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Speaker 4: and so a lot of people have been asking, like,

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Speaker 4: what's the best way to support it? And I just

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Speaker 4: first of all blows me away that people even ask that.

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Speaker 4: But the best way to support it is to go

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Speaker 4: to Undercurrents dot tv and you can grab a subscription there.

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Speaker 4: You get the whole show premium features with Q and

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Speaker 4: a extra segments. Gotta get you on, Crystal, that'll be

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Speaker 4: a lot of fun, Crystal, Ryan Saga, a whole gang.

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Speaker 4: Gotta get everyone on. But you know, it's just been

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Speaker 4: a blast so far. The YouTube channel is undercurrent, so

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Speaker 4: you can just go there find it.

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Speaker 5: You can subscribe.

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Speaker 4: That's the most helpful thing if you subscribe and watch

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Speaker 4: the videos. So it's very very exciting. Never wanted my

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Speaker 4: own show, but it's very cool to.

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Speaker 3: Have one, Crystal, it wanted you apparently.

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Speaker 1: I'm so happy for you, Emily, because you really are

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Speaker 1: an independent thinker and it seems like you've landed in

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Speaker 1: the perfect place to just be able to say what

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Speaker 1: you want to say, have on the guests you want

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Speaker 1: to have on the show. Is fantastic, So congrats to

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Speaker 1: you and everybody go and support Emily over it Unheard.

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Speaker 5: Thank you. I appreciate that so much.

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Speaker 6: Crystal.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Unheard is awesome, just super super independent and people

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Speaker 4: with all kinds of different viewpoint so it's a great

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Speaker 4: place to be. Thanks everyone for the support. Let's get

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Speaker 4: to the show, because man, the new polls on the

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Speaker 4: general election, which now is Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris

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Speaker 4: continue to roll in. Let's go ahead and play this

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Speaker 4: clip of Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 5: This was last night.

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Speaker 4: She's sort of talking about we're getting some previews where

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Speaker 4: the messaging is going here.

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Speaker 7: So the momentum in this race is shifting, and there

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Speaker 7: are signs that Donald Trump is feeling it.

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Speaker 3: You may have noticed.

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Speaker 7: So last week you may have seen he pulled out

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Speaker 7: of the debate in September he had previously agreed to.

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Speaker 8: So so here's the thing.

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Speaker 3: Here's the funny thing about that.

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Speaker 8: Here's the funny thing about that.

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Speaker 7: Oh, he won't debate, but he and his running mate,

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Speaker 7: she seemed to have a lot to say about me.

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Speaker 7: And by the way, don't you find some of their

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Speaker 7: stuff to just be plain weird? Well, Donald, I do

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Speaker 7: hope you'll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage, because,

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Speaker 7: as the saying goes, if you've got something to.

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Speaker 4: Say, she's feeling herself.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, a lot of slagger there.

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Speaker 1: Vibe shipped from when it was Biden head of the

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Speaker 1: ticket is like off the charts. There was Megan thee

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Speaker 1: Stallion was there. They were dancing and not like us.

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Speaker 1: You know, people were going crazy the whole place was

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Speaker 1: filled up. You know, she's able to capably read a

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Speaker 1: teleprompter with energy and mentality.

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Speaker 5: She can get to just the one sence.

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Speaker 1: It's amazing and she really does benefit like I want

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Speaker 1: to say, like I do think on the stump off

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Speaker 1: a teleprompter at these rallies. She is genuinely good. She's

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Speaker 1: better than adequate. She's genuinely good. She hasn't had to

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Speaker 1: do any of the things yet that have been difficult

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Speaker 1: for her in the past, the tough interviews where she

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Speaker 1: gets knocked off balance, or not even really tough interviews

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Speaker 1: where she gets knocked off balance, but just interviews where

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Speaker 1: she gets knocked off balance, the debate performances that were

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Speaker 1: an issue for her last time. But Democrats have totally

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Speaker 1: closed the enthusiasm gap. It seems crazy now that there

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Speaker 1: was anyone who was arguing to keep Joe Biden at

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Speaker 1: the top of the ticket.

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Speaker 3: And so she's got a real momentum that.

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Speaker 1: Is reflected not just in this you know, enthusiastic crowd

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Speaker 1: down in Georgia, but also by the poles that are

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Speaker 1: coming out which are starting to show her being not

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Speaker 1: just where Biden was pre debate, but actually exceeding his

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Speaker 1: performance even kind of at his peak quote unquote peak

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Speaker 1: in this race. We can put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: These poles that we have of the battleground states. Now,

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Speaker 1: I want to say this is morning consult. They are

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Speaker 1: not a highly rated polster, so you should always take

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Speaker 1: any poles with a grain of salt. But it's important

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Speaker 1: to notice the shift in this pole from where they

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Speaker 1: were with Biden to now where they are with Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: So you now have Harris plus two in Arizona. Biden

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Speaker 1: in this same pole never led in Arizona. You have

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Speaker 1: Georgia at a tie. Biden never in Georgia, got it

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Speaker 1: to a tie again in the same pole.

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Speaker 3: Michigan. This one's a little hard to believe.

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Speaker 1: Plus eleven for Harris. Let's take that with a lot

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Speaker 1: of grains of salt, but same movement, same direction as

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Speaker 1: the other states. Nevada Harris plus one, Wisconsin Harris plus two,

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Speaker 1: and then you've got Pennsylvania Trump plus four, and North

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Speaker 1: Carolina Trump plus two. Pennsylvania may be very relevant when

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Speaker 1: we start talking.

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Speaker 3: About the deepsteaks.

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Speaker 1: There seem to be some indicators she may be moving

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Speaker 1: in the direction of Joshapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, much

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Speaker 1: to my chagrin.

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Speaker 3: But we'll save that for later.

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Speaker 1: But you know, Emily, what's your reaction to kind of

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Speaker 1: where the state of the races, where the energy is

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Speaker 1: and if this trend is sustainable for Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 4: You know, Kamala Harris Brand and I talked about this

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Speaker 4: last week, had that incredible campaign launch back in twenty

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Speaker 4: nineteen in Oakland, and so much momentum, so much coverage

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Speaker 4: from the media, really friendly coverage from the media. There's

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Speaker 4: a lot of energy momentum behind her campaign. Can she

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Speaker 4: lead like actually as a leader an organization that a

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Speaker 4: campaign is, I think is a major question. There have

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Speaker 4: been huge concerns with her, her sister's leadership of her campaign,

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Speaker 4: Maya Harris leadership of her campaign.

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Speaker 5: She has a lot of eternal her in her office.

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Speaker 4: That's the scuttle butt is that she's a pretty hard

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Speaker 4: person to work for, which can mean good things. It

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Speaker 4: can mean bad things too, especially when you have highest

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Speaker 4: turnover rates in your Senate office then your vice presidential office.

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Speaker 4: This is something that has dogged her in recent years,

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Speaker 4: no question about it. But what you noted with this

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Speaker 4: Morning consolet poll is important because it's a shift from

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Speaker 4: where the numbers were with Biden. So these the sample

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Speaker 4: size looks really small to me, but it's still the

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Speaker 4: numbers with Biden versus the numbers with Harris. There's a

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Speaker 4: very notable difference in some of these states, and it's

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Speaker 4: going to be reflected on some of these other poles

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Speaker 4: that we see as well. So I don't think that,

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Speaker 4: you know, Kamala Harris is going to have the same

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Speaker 4: A lot of people are using the word honeymoon. I

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Speaker 4: don't think that's going to follow her into November, although

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Speaker 4: you can expect some of the same. Like you remember

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Speaker 4: why the Clinton campaign shows the Javit Center for their

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Speaker 4: h They expected.

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Speaker 1: Yeah theamily, Yes in the universe.

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Speaker 4: That that's going to happen again, no matter what, no

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Speaker 4: matter how poorly this campaign goes for Kamala Harris, They're

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Speaker 4: again going to start to set up this feeling of

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Speaker 4: destiny and history. And so I think some of this

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Speaker 4: theater will follow her into November, and this sort of

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Speaker 4: momentum will follow no matter what.

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Speaker 5: Just because of that.

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Speaker 4: At the same time, I feel like you probably agree

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Speaker 4: with me in this. I just think this is going

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Speaker 4: to This race is never going to have anyone pulling

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Speaker 4: away from the other. It is always going to be

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Speaker 4: extremely extremely close. Most of the national averages, the polling

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Speaker 4: averages are probably going to be within a couple points

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Speaker 4: the entire last leg of this race.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and then it gets the question, Okay, well, how

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Speaker 1: reflective of these are these polls of actual reality? Because

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Speaker 1: while she's outperforming how Biden has been doing in this

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Speaker 1: election cycle in terms of the polling. In the last

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Speaker 1: election cycle in twenty twenty, at this point, Biden was

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Speaker 1: up by like nine points. These poles were showing a

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Speaker 1: blowout for Biden last time around. Now you won, wasn't

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Speaker 1: any kind of a blowout though, if you look how

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Speaker 1: close and how narrow it was in the key battleground states.

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Speaker 1: So that's another question whether these poles are actually reflective

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Speaker 1: of reality. Let's just put a couple more data points,

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Speaker 1: new data points we have up on the screen. We've

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Speaker 1: got a what is this Susquehanna pole out of Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: and it shows Kamala Harris up by four points. That

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Speaker 1: is actually the within their margin of error. Their margin

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Speaker 1: of error is four points, So that's interesting. Also interesting,

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Speaker 1: was the breakdown in the New York Times Ciena Pole

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Speaker 1: of where she is gaining specifically. Now this also put

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Speaker 1: us up on the screen. This also really really take

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Speaker 1: with a lot of grains of salt, because anytime you

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Speaker 1: get into these demographic subsamples, it's even less accurate than

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Speaker 1: the pole top line, just because you're dealing with smaller

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Speaker 1: slices and smaller sample sizes in terms of you know,

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Speaker 1: the number of people who are eighteen to twenty nine,

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Speaker 1: the number of people who are in the Midwest, or

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Speaker 1: white college, white non college, whatever. But it shows significant

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Speaker 1: improvement among young voters, hispanics, and independence. Interestingly, one of

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Speaker 1: the she falls back with there are only two groups

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Speaker 1: on here. I believe that her performance deteriorates over where

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden was. One of them is elderly people, people

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Speaker 1: sixty five plus. That kind of tracks because Biden had

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Speaker 1: a like unusual strength with that group. That was where

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Speaker 1: he was doing the best even as everything else was

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Speaker 1: falling off. The other one is with black voters, which

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Speaker 1: you know, it's not consistent with what we see in

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Speaker 1: other polls. That's why I say take it with a

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Speaker 1: grain assault, but it is also very counter to the

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Speaker 1: narrative and the identity politics expectations that have been set

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Speaker 1: by the media.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and again that happened in twenty sixteen too, and

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Speaker 4: then we had this whole backlash against women who voted

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Speaker 4: for Trump, which was a good chunk of the female

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Speaker 4: electorate United States. And so I kind of wonder how

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Speaker 4: many lessons are going to truly have been internalized and

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Speaker 4: will inform decisions that the Harris campaign makes.

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Speaker 5: Down the line.

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Speaker 4: An open question because they should be careful with some

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Speaker 4: of this. When you're telling people that it's just it's history,

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Speaker 4: you have to do this for history, there can be

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Speaker 4: backlash to that.

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Speaker 5: One thing.

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Speaker 4: I know, I wanted to note in that Susquehanna poll,

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Speaker 4: Crystal is the the three percent?

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Speaker 5: What was it or no?

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Speaker 4: I think it was at seven percent for RFK Junior.

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Speaker 4: That's a I mean, talk about momentum. Does look like

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Speaker 4: the RFK Junior campaign in a lot of different polls

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Speaker 4: just after Biden dropped out of the race. I know

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Speaker 4: we talked about this at the time, but it just

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Speaker 4: a lot of people who were in the RFK Junior camp,

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Speaker 4: in the Jill Stein camp, were saying, we just wanted

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Speaker 4: like a sentient Democrat to vote for it. That doesn't mean,

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Speaker 4: you know, seven percent is still significant. I think he

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Speaker 4: probably will pull significant margins in certain states, and there's

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Speaker 4: still time for him to you know, bounce back and

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Speaker 4: be a ross perrot.

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Speaker 5: But right now that's that's not where this race is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the air is really going out of the tires

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Speaker 1: in that campaign, and Biden dropping out was really a

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Speaker 1: blow to it because the core promise of that campaign is, like,

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Speaker 1: the core appeal is like, don't you hate those two dudes.

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Speaker 1: I'm an alternative here, i am my last name's Kennedy.

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Speaker 1: I'm different than them, I'm difficult to code partisan ideologically.

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Speaker 1: That was like the core premise of the campaign. So

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Speaker 1: when you lose Biden, it also has become much more

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Speaker 1: clear that RFK Junior is now taking more quote unquote

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Speaker 1: from Trump than he is from the Democratic side, because

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Speaker 1: those disaffected Democrats who were just like, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: this guy is too old, I can't possibly vote for

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Speaker 1: him again, they're coming back into the fold with Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 1: you know the things that you were talking about before, Emily,

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Speaker 1: with regard to Kamlain, her poor track record of managing

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Speaker 1: an office, managing a campaign, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: You know, in some ways, this.

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Speaker 1: Is almost like the best possible situation for her because

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Speaker 1: she didn't have to build.

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Speaker 3: A campaign organization.

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Speaker 1: She just had to you know, they just had to

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Speaker 1: change the name on the headquarters on the Biden HQ.

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Speaker 1: She's taking over all the same staff. They've hit the

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Speaker 1: ground running. I mean, I think anybody has to acknowledge

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Speaker 1: it's been an impressive rollout. Yes, aided by the media,

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Speaker 1: no doubt about it, but it's been a very impressive,

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Speaker 1: lightning fast rollout. You can see her favorability skyrocketing in

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Speaker 1: ways that are completely insane, and she's got a really

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Speaker 1: truncated timeframe, like there's not that long a period of

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Speaker 1: time for her to be out in the public eye

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Speaker 1: and remind people of why she you know, fail down

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Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty primary, of why the Biden administration

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Speaker 1: hid her after that disastrous lester Hold interview, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. So the conditions are truly ideal for her,

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Speaker 1: and I've come to see the frame of the election

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Speaker 1: and part of why she's catching on so quickly and

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Speaker 1: really you know, searching in the polls. The point now

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Speaker 1: to exceed Biden's performance, even at his peak, is because

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Speaker 1: I do think this is a change election, and as

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Speaker 1: counterintuitive as it seems, with her being the sitting vice president,

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Speaker 1: she feels right now like the change candidate Trump feels like.

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Speaker 1: And she's got that line of like, we're not going back,

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Speaker 1: which feeds into that idea of like the change candidate,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're moving forward, We're going to do something different.

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Speaker 3: In terms of the all important vibes, she.

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Speaker 1: Does feel like she's the new fresh face and the

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Speaker 1: change candidate in an election where I think voters are

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Speaker 1: looking for something different, So that can change. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: Trump is going to make his own play. You know,

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Speaker 1: these things are not static. Your opponent is going to respond.

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Speaker 1: I do think the Republicans have been caught kind of

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Speaker 1: flat footed in terms of how they wanted to deal

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Speaker 1: with her and how they want to frame her. But

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Speaker 1: those things are all going to shift, and we got

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Speaker 1: a long way to go still till November.

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Speaker 5: No question about it, No question about it.

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Speaker 4: Nate Silver throwing some cold water on some of the

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Speaker 4: just some of the honeymoon, We'll say, just always fun

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Speaker 4: to watch, I guess.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So let's put this up on the screen from

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Speaker 1: Nate Silver. So this is the overall polling average, which

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Speaker 1: has them very close, Donald Trump at forty four point

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Speaker 1: five Kamala Harris at forty four point one. However, his

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Speaker 1: model has Trump significantly favored. So you know, Nate runs

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Speaker 1: these simulations and it's like, okay, what percent of the

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Speaker 1: time does Trump win in my electoral simulation and get

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Speaker 1: to two seventy and what percentage of the time does

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris win? And it was like, you know, sixty

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Speaker 1: forty effectively in favor of Trump. Now, interestingly, he has

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris narrowly favored to win the popular vote.

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Speaker 3: But because she has.

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Speaker 1: Now remade the sort of you know, modern historic Obama

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Speaker 1: sort of coalition of the Democratic Party, it puts Democrats

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Speaker 1: back at a significant disadvantage in.

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Speaker 3: Terms of electoral college.

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Speaker 1: Whereas Biden, because of his strength with like old white people,

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Speaker 1: had kind of erased that dynasic just fact, I'm not

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Speaker 1: trying to be just very in us reality. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: he had sort of erased that dynamic. It's back in

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Speaker 1: play now with Kamala Harris reconstituting that like Obama style coalition.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a huge point.

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Speaker 4: She's going to have the ads that are going to

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Speaker 4: run in Pennsylvania about her being on tape saying banning fracking.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's no CNN fact check or New York

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Speaker 4: Times fact check or whatever in the world that can

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Speaker 4: make that go away. It's her on tape, and it

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Speaker 4: will be running constantly to Pencil of Ania voters. So

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Speaker 4: those are going to be really difficult spots for Kamala

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Speaker 4: Harris to find.

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Speaker 5: Appeal and build.

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Speaker 4: Obama campaigned very differently than Hillary Clinton, especially in two

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Speaker 4: thousand and eight when he was in those states. And

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Speaker 4: I don't mean Clinton in two thousand and eight, because

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Speaker 4: Hillary Clinton also campaigned very differently in the two thousand

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Speaker 4: and seven two thousand and eight time frame when she

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Speaker 4: was in the primary. But I don't know that Kamala

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Speaker 4: Harris can pull that off. She at one point, you know,

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Speaker 4: tried to push back on identity politics and kind of

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Speaker 4: quickly discarded that and realized it would be more fruitful

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Speaker 4: for her to lean totally into it.

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Speaker 5: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I just I have a hard time, Crystal seeing her

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Speaker 4: pulling off the successfully pulling off the right kind of

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Speaker 4: Democratic Party messaging in those states. But obviously that's why

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Speaker 4: she's looking for some looking at some of the VP

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Speaker 4: candidates that we know she's looking at.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think the biggest knock on Kamala Harris

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Speaker 1: and there was some reporting to suggest that, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the sort of testing of her weaknesses done by

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Speaker 1: the Biden team, this is what they came up with.

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Speaker 1: It's not that she's radical left to liberal blah blah blah,

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Speaker 1: which is what Republicans.

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Speaker 3: Are really leaning into an addition to a lot of

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Speaker 3: other stuff.

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Speaker 1: But that's kind of like the core of the official

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Speaker 1: campaign messaging, and she's too radical. The real knock on

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Speaker 1: her is that she's nothing, That she's all over the place,

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Speaker 1: that she's wherever it's convenient to be in the moment.

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Speaker 1: And so you mentioned the fracking band, Like now she

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Speaker 1: says she doesn't support that she was from Outicare for

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Speaker 1: All she already had rejected, you know, moved on from

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Speaker 1: that even during her own campaign back in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: That's to me the real weak spot for Kamala Harris. Now,

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Speaker 1: maybe you parlay that into an advantage where people feel,

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Speaker 1: like they did with Obama, they sort of see whatever

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Speaker 1: they want to see in her and baby you can

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Speaker 1: maintain that illusion through November. But she doesn't have certainly

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Speaker 1: the political skill of an Obama. I don't think there's

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Speaker 1: any doubt about that. And unlike Obama, she has a

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Speaker 1: much longer track record in the public record. Obama was

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Speaker 1: so relatively new in Washington that it enabled this ability

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Speaker 1: to project on him whatever it is that you wanted

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Speaker 1: him to be. So she doesn't have quite that same

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Speaker 1: luxury because of how long she you know, in the Senate,

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Speaker 1: as an ag as you know, a presidential candidate, in

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration, et cetera. Some of those things have

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Speaker 1: to stick to you somewhere along the.

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Speaker 4: Line, speaking of attacks that Democrats really want to stick

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Speaker 4: to Republicans at least, should we move on to Project

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, Crystal.

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Speaker 3: Let's do it.

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Speaker 1: This is like you got to do your conservative explainer

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Speaker 1: for me of what the hell's going on here?

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, it's funny because the media has constructed

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Speaker 4: this amazing myth of Project twenty twenty five. That is,

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Speaker 4: you know, Donald Trump himself recently said that there's some

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Speaker 4: fine points in it, and someone did he say, absolutely

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Speaker 4: ridiculous points in.

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Speaker 5: It that he doesn't agree with. That at all.

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Speaker 4: But basically, the Heritage Foundation is the premier think tank

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Speaker 4: conservative think tank in DC. It is the biggest and

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Speaker 4: most influential think tank on the right, and they've put

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Speaker 4: out what's called their Mandate for Leadership since the ninete

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Speaker 4: teen eighties, and it's like a nine hundred page book.

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Speaker 4: The Cycle Project twenty twenty five is what they know

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Speaker 4: relabeled it because they also coupled it this year, which

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Speaker 4: the part that you know, if I were sitting back

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Speaker 4: and going to describe anything as a vast right wing conspiracy,

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Speaker 4: they did couple it with this personnel recruitment search that

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Speaker 4: a lot of conservative groups started doing and actually realized

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Speaker 4: they had to start doing during the Trump administration. When

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Speaker 4: you know, it's no secret the conservative movement has wanted

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Speaker 4: to like gut the administrative state literally for decades. The

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Speaker 4: Heritage Foundation itself attacked Ronald Reagan for not abolishing the

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Speaker 4: Department of Education in the middle of the eighties. So

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Speaker 4: you know, they think they have a real shot at

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Speaker 4: achieving some of this stuff with Trump, and some of

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Speaker 4: it is going to be extremely unpopular with the American people.

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Speaker 4: Democrats realized that and sort of took what was fairly commonplace.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Heritage Foundation had been handing these books out.

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Speaker 5: They still are. They were at NATCON recently.

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Speaker 4: They had stacks of these big nine hundred page Project

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty five Mandate for leadership books, just kind of

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Speaker 4: handing them out. They weren't trying to be secretive about

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Speaker 4: at all. In fact, they were trying to get these

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Speaker 4: books in everyone's hands.

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Speaker 5: The other if you're gonna say.

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Speaker 4: There's a vast right wing conspiracy element of this is

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Speaker 4: they teased a one hundred and eighty day plan for

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Speaker 4: the first one hundred and eighty days of any Republican

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Speaker 4: president who were to win in twenty twenty four. For

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Speaker 4: a while, there were a lot of people in circles

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Speaker 4: here in d C, Conservative circles in DC, Heritage circles

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Speaker 4: in DC who wanted that person to be around DeSantis.

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Speaker 4: It wasn't just about Donald Trump. So that's my basic

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Speaker 4: because there has been to borrow a phrase, disinformation surrounding it.

442
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 4: Some of it is fine because it's partisan attacks from

443
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 4: Democrats that are being constructed to win an election, which

444
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 4: is a totally normal thing that both sides do. Then

445
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 4: when it gets kind of parroted by the media, I

446
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 4: think is where that's confusing, but it's fairly standard stuff.

447
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 4: At the same time, fairly standard for a conservative movement

448
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 4: group like the Heritage Foundation is not going to be

449
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 4: appealing on a mass scale. So that's my basic rundown

450
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 4: before we jump into the news of what happened yesterday.

451
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 1: Crystal, Yeah, go ahead and break down the news, and

452
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 1: then I can give my view of Project twenty twenty five,

453
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: which is similar to years but different in some respects.

454
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 5: Right, Okay, So I'm excited about that.

455
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 9: Now.

456
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 4: Project twenty twenty five has become a huge lightning rod

457
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 4: because Democrats, and I think smartly have realized they can

458
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 4: pin this on Republicans running everywhere. They can create this

459
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 4: myth of Project twenty twenty five and hanging around the

460
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 4: next of Republican candidates Donald Trump. Trump threw cold water

461
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 4: on that right away. He was basically which is which

462
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 4: was shocking because the Heritage Foundation definitely felt like they

463
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 4: had done this with veterans of a prior Trump administration

464
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 4: and people who would be staffing at Trump administration, probably

465
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 4: saying people would be staffing you know, potentially Desanta's administration

466
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 4: or any of these Republicans they felt like they were

467
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 4: in good shape. So what happened yesterday, all of this

468
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 4: really came to a head. Let's go ahead and put

469
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 4: b one up on the screen. So Roger Stellenberger at

470
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 4: The Daily Beast first reported that Paul Dan's, one of

471
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 4: the top guys at Project twenty twenty five, was leaving,

472
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 4: and Stallenberger said, this meant that, you know, Project twenty

473
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 4: twenty five looked like it was about to shut down.

474
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 4: The Heritage Foundation then came out and said, no, Paul

475
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 4: is leaving because our timeline was always that we wrap

476
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 4: these mandates for leaderships up after the election. And Kevin Roberts,

477
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 4: the president of the Heritage Foundation, said Project twenty twenty five.

478
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 4: You know, we're extremely grateful to him and everyone's work

479
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 4: on Project twenty twenty five and dedication to staving in America.

480
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 4: Our collective efforts to build a personnel apparatus for policy

481
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:45,120
Speaker 4: makers of all levels federal, state, and local will continue

482
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 4: so that the kind of mandate for leadership policy blueprint

483
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 4: part of Project twenty twenty five shutting down. But this

484
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 4: like online portal where you can submit yourself to potentially

485
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 4: work in a future Trump administration or Republican administration in general,

486
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 4: the real state and local level still up and running.

487
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 4: And again, like Chris, to the point where there is

488
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 4: something that's you know, sort of weird about it or

489
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 4: vast write when conspiracy about it, that's the part that

490
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 4: I think probably a lot of people would look to.

491
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 4: So let's put B two up on the screen. This

492
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 4: all started rolling down the hill yesterday. Susie Wilds and

493
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 4: Chris los Nvita, they're the head of the Trump campaign.

494
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 5: They took a victory lap.

495
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 4: They didn't even like they didn't have to say a

496
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 4: word about Project twenty twenty five.

497
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 5: They didn't have to do anything about it.

498
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 4: But they said reports of Project twenty twenty five's demise

499
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 4: would be greatly welcome and should serve as noticed to

500
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 4: anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with

501
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 4: President Trump and his campaign, it will not end well

502
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 4: for you. That is just like so Trumpian in tone

503
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 4: and everything like that. So let's also move to well

504
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 4: before we do that, Crystal, this is B three. This

505
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 4: is you suggested this Vox article on explaining Project twenty

506
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 4: twenty five, which at one point there are more people

507
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 4: googling Project twenty twenty five than Taylor Swift in the

508
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 4: last couple of months. That was a real thing because

509
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 4: it's been in so many ads. It's been you know,

510
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 4: I've had like random people who don't follow politics that

511
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 4: closely asking me like, Hey, what's the deal with Project

512
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 4: twenty twenty five?

513
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 5: Should I be worried about it?

514
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 4: Blah blah blah, And yeah, my response would be its

515
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 4: pretty standard conservative movement stuff with some new right stuff

516
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 4: thrown in. For the better and the worse if you're

517
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 4: trying to sell it to the American public. For the better,

518
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 4: there's some interesting stuff on labor. For the worse, it

519
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 4: goes in some interesting directions on social issues. But as

520
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 4: you've kind of looked into this, what do you make

521
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 4: of Project twenty twenty five?

522
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I think it's terrifying in the same

523
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,679
Speaker 1: way that like ideological conservative government is terrifying to me

524
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 1: and frankly to a lot of Americans who are reading

525
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: this and are like, holy shit, that's what you guys

526
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: want to do here. Some of the language is jarring, right,

527
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 1: Like there's this line that says pornography should be outlawed,

528
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 1: the people who produce and distribute it should be imprisoned

529
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: cators and public librarians who purvey it should be classed

530
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 1: as registered sex offenders, and telecoms and tech firms that

531
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: facilitate it spread should be shuddered.

532
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 5: So imagine Donald Trump doing that.

533
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 3: No, of course not.

534
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: But this is I mean, there's a reason why he

535
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: has gone to great lengths to try to, you know,

536
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: distance himself from this and say I have nothing to

537
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: do with this. It's also interesting too because he never

538
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 1: nams specifically what his problem with it is. It's just

539
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 1: like some of it's fine and some of it is terrible. Well, okay,

540
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: well tell me which parts are terrible? Which parts do

541
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: you disagree with? About two thirds of the authors come

542
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: from the Trump administration. There were one hundred and forty

543
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,959
Speaker 1: different Trump administration officials who were involved in drafting it.

544
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: As you said, I'm sure all the people who are

545
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: involved in fact, I'm curious your view of like their

546
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,360
Speaker 1: reaction to the Trump you know, trashing it and all

547
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: of that, because I'm sure they fell. Oh, we're part

548
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 1: of the team. We're doing the work that's going to

549
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: help this next administration. We're going to be in line

550
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 1: for jobs. He's claiming he's not going to take anyone

551
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 1: on who was affiliated with Project twenty twenty five at all.

552
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: So shockingly, I actually think the Democrats did a good

553
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: job of messaging on this, because I never would have

554
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: expected it to gain the popular attraction that it did.

555
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 1: And I think part of it is just that the

556
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: name Project twenty twenty five sounds really ominous and vast

557
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: right wing conspiracy ish.

558
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 3: So there's that.

559
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 1: But the other problem for the Trump people is, like

560
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: you know, with the jd Vance pick. The dude just

561
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: wrote the foreword for the book of the Project twenty

562
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: twenty five dude, and he said in that we have

563
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: we could put B five up on the screen. He

564
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 1: said literally in that forward. The Heritage Foundation isn't some

565
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: random outpost on Capitol Hill. It is and has been

566
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 1: the most influential engine of ideas for Republicans from Ronald Reagan.

567
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 3: To Donald Trump.

568
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: So that also hampers their ability to say, oh, we

569
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: hate this, we want nothing to do with it. Okay,

570
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,479
Speaker 1: well why did you pick someone who was so closely

571
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 1: affiliated with it for your ticket? And you know, we'll

572
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: talk more about this with with the lady, And I'm

573
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: curious their view and your view as well.

574
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: But the two issues.

575
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 1: Where the Trump campaign really feels like they have a

576
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: problem are abortion and Project twenty twenty five, and Vance

577
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 1: brings massive baggage to the ticket on both of those issues.

578
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I don't disagree with that, although I wonder

579
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 4: to what extent this will throw will make it really

580
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 4: hard to keep using the Project twenty twenty five attack.

581
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 4: I don't know, actually, because to the point about what

582
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 4: Vance wrote in that forward, Heritage was taking money from

583
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 4: defense contractors and big tech companies up until Kevin Roberts

584
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 4: took over, and Kevin Roberts is very much an ideological

585
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 4: fellow traveler of Vance. I talked to him about this recently,

586
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 4: and that's where the Heritage Foundation felt like, of course,

587
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 4: this is a worthwhile endeavor that if we want any

588
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 4: future Republican president to have a shot at enacting real

589
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 4: conservative priority without being undermined by people who work in

590
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 4: A great example would be like the EPA. And that's

591
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 4: a great example of why some of this would be

592
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 4: terrifying to someone on the left, Crystal like they want

593
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: to be able to make huge sweeping changes at the EPA.

594
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 4: I would love huge sweeping changes at the Department of Education,

595
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 4: that would probably be terrifying to you and Ryan, and

596
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 4: it's hard to do that if you don't have the personnel,

597
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 4: which was a huge problem in the Trump administration. It

598
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 4: would be a problem in any administration just because there aren't.

599
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 4: There are a lot of people that want to do that,

600
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 4: and we can get into why and all of that.

601
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 4: But I do wonder about the future of these attacks,

602
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:43,719
Speaker 4: because let's play this is a crazy story. Let's play

603
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 4: this next clip of JD Vance. Really, I just can't

604
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 4: emphasize enough how important the sentiment that he's expressing in

605
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 4: this clip is. Because it is it has come to

606
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 4: be widely adopted by people on the right, many of

607
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 4: him Soccer, and I know this is very much what

608
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 4: they see is the most important sentiment to bring to

609
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 4: the table in American politics from a conservative perspective. Now,

610
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 4: So this is JD Vance in twenty twenty one, and

611
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 4: it was posted by the Kamala Harris campaign Rapid Response

612
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 4: account on Twitter.

613
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 10: I think the thing that we have to take away

614
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,239
Speaker 10: from the last ten years is that we really need

615
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 10: to be really ruthless when it comes to the exercise

616
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 10: of power. I was talking about this with someone earlier

617
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 10: today where you remember there was some threat that Congression

618
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,959
Speaker 10: or Senate Republicans made, if you get rid of the filibuster,

619
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 10: we're going to do X, Y and Z, And you

620
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 10: actually look at it, it's like, oh, this is this

621
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 10: is not that interesting, Like we're going to like delve

622
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 10: it on our promise life that we've made, right, you know,

623
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 10: you know this is this is the threat. If you

624
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 10: get rid of the filibuster, we're going to do this

625
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 10: stuff like they're talking about expanding the Supreme Court, they're

626
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 10: talking about adding you know, to senators from heavily democratic places.

627
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 8: You get rid of the filmbuster will actually deliver it, do.

628
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: You know what?

629
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 5: We don't want to do.

630
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 10: So I think, I mean, look, I am a cynic

631
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 10: about this and maybe even a little bit of a pessimist,

632
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 10: but I think the challenge confronting American conservatives is that

633
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 10: we have lost every major powerful institution in the country

634
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 10: except for maybe churches and religious institutions, which of course

635
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 10: are weaker now than they've ever been. We've lost big business,

636
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 10: we've lost finance, we've lost the culture, we've lost the academy.

637
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 10: And if we're going to actually really affect real change

638
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 10: in the country. It will require us completely replacing the

639
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 10: existing ruling class with another ruling class.

640
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 4: So Crystal, the reason Jade Vance's head is cut off

641
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 4: in that video is because I filmed it.

642
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: I actually filmed.

643
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 5: That video because conspiracy, Yeah, of course.

644
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 4: But you know that was on Federal Stradio Hour twenty

645
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 4: twenty one summer of twenty twenty one. Jadevance was on

646
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: as a guest that's been dominant.

647
00:31:59,520 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 5: In Chris bud.

648
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 4: I'm scrolling Twitter the other day and see this video

649
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 4: and I'm like, oh, someone pulled it, and then I

650
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 4: looked at the account and I was like, that's the

651
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris campaign. They used that clip to say, clip

652
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 4: to say, Jadvance endorse twenty twenty five Project twenty twenty five.

653
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 4: What's really in that clip is Jdvance actually not. You know,

654
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 4: it's long before Project twenty twenty five got even was

655
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 4: an idea. But what he's endorsing is the underlying sentiment

656
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 4: of Project twenty twenty five, which is that the right

657
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 4: needs to seize the reins of administrative power.

658
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 5: And that is something that is very real, very real.

659
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: Right, And so I think that clip gets into why

660
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 1: jd Vance is struggling as a national candidate, and why

661
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: his favorability rating has you know, really tanked and he

662
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: was already the least favorable VP nominee in history, and

663
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: all this stuff because that language and that sort of

664
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 1: posture as a renegade revolutionary wanting to overthrow the administrative

665
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,719
Speaker 1: state and all this even like very specific, fake niche

666
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 1: right wing online language plays very well in.

667
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 3: That circle played.

668
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: I'm sure people loved what he had to say there,

669
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: but when you put it out to general public, people

670
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: are like, this sounds extreme, fringe weird. You might say,

671
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: you know, this sounds scary, and then again, when you

672
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 1: have the dude, you know, writing the foreword for the

673
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 1: Project twenty twenty five author's book, makes it very difficult

674
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: to get your fingerprints off of what they have planned.

675
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: So this has been my sort of take on Evans,

676
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 1: and we'll talk to the ladies later about this as well.

677
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: But you know, in order in particular to overcome the

678
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: misgivings people had about him from saying things like Trump

679
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: maybe America's Hitler, for example, he really leaned into this

680
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: right wing online influencer vernacular and posture, which served him

681
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 1: well in terms of gaining clout and gaining like a

682
00:33:54,520 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: national purchase in that subculture, but is very off putting

683
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: to your average normy voter who you need to win

684
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 1: over in order to win a general election. So, you know,

685
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 1: I am very much of the view that Vance was

686
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 1: a tremendous mistake from the Trump campaign. I think Trump

687
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 1: has to think he's a tremendous mistake at this point

688
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: because of all the baggage that he brings the table

689
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: and how little additive in terms of electoral benefit he

690
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 1: brings the table. If you wanted him to be involved

691
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: with governance, you could have made him chief of staff, right,

692
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 1: You didn't have to have him with you on the ticket,

693
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: because the biggest danger for Republicans is that just like

694
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, they have this with and the

695
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: sense of extremism and like they're you know, not in

696
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 1: touch with the median voter in the country, and putting

697
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 1: Vance on the ticket makes it much easier for Democrats

698
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 1: to make that case and create that impression.

699
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 5: Yeah. I don't disagree with that.

700
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 4: I mean that talk about power like actually makes me

701
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 4: uncomfortable and I have a lot of disagreements with it.

702
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 4: But it's very commonplace in conservative circles here in DC,

703
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 4: no doubt about it, although I still think Trump's number

704
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 4: one goal in picking Vance was just to avoid picking

705
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 4: a Pence. And you don't get a lot of options

706
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 4: for people who are high profiled, successful enough that would

707
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 4: certify the new.

708
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 5: Electors on January sixth.

709
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 4: So by Trump's standards, I guess it's probably still a success,

710
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 4: but we'll see how or whether Jad Devince is a

711
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 4: drag on the ticket. Ultimately, huge news, huge news out

712
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 4: of the Middle East, just in the last several hours, Crystal,

713
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 4: we continue to get developments, So let's move on to

714
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 4: that segment.

715
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: It appears that Israel has conducted two major assassinations in

716
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: the region with potential consequences that are hard to wrap

717
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 1: your head around. The first was Fuad Shugar, he is

718
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 1: the most senior military commander in Hesbola.

719
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 3: That assassination occurred in Beirut.

720
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 1: And the second was Ismael Haniah, assassinated in Tehran in Iran.

721
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 1: There for the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and

722
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 1: he is the top political leader of Hamas. Joining us

723
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: to break down the context of this and the potential consequences,

724
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 1: where we could be headed as doctor Tree to Parsi,

725
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 1: he of course is with the Quincy Institute for Responsible

726
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 1: state Craft.

727
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 3: Great disease.

728
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 6: Good to be with you again.

729
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: So what is your initial reaction to these astounding events.

730
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 11: Well, I think we have to assume that this is

731
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 11: done by his role, given the track record of is

732
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 11: we doing these type of things, particularly mindful of the

733
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 11: attack that you also mentioned against the Hezbola commander. So

734
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 11: if we assume that, we have to ask ourselves what

735
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 11: the objective is here Beyond obviously the desire.

736
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 6: To take out Hania. They could have taken out.

737
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 11: Any at any moments he was living in Katat, They

738
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 11: knew exactly where he was. The fact that they took

739
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 11: him out while he was in Tehran on the day

740
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 11: of the inauguration of the Iranian president, I think is

741
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,959
Speaker 11: designed to send a couple of messages. One of those

742
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 11: messages is of course, that they are trying to undermine

743
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 11: any opportunity that posess Kon's election would bring about for

744
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 11: renewed US ivon diplomacy, something the Israelis have opposed since

745
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 11: the mid nineteen nineties. Secondly, is to send a clear

746
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 11: signal to both Yvon and the different groups that Yvon

747
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 11: is supporting from his bullag to the Hutis, to Iraqi militias,

748
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,720
Speaker 11: that they're not safe, they're not even safe in Yvon,

749
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 11: and that that Yvon actually cannot protect them. This is deeply,

750
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 11: deeply embarrassing for Van, of course, particularly particularly if it

751
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 11: turns out that some of the reporting that is coming

752
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 11: out now is true, which is that he was actually

753
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 11: in or very near the presidential compound when he was assassinated.

754
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 11: And then you have to ask yourself, So, if these

755
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 11: Raelis are doing something that they know is deeply embarrassing

756
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 11: to the Yvonians, they're clearly doing it because they know

757
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 11: that that will maximize the likelihood that Yvon will respond,

758
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 11: and that will been as a result and of course

759
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 11: trigger and escalatory spiral, and escalatory spiral that seems to

760
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 11: have been in the mind of Nataniel when he ordered this. If,

761
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 11: of course it is Israel, but I think it's safe

762
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 11: to assume that it is.

763
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 4: That's what I wanted to ask about next. How what

764
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 4: do you expect in terms of the Iranian response? What

765
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 4: could we be saying, what could we be seeing in

766
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 4: the days ahead, in hours ahead, actually potentially from Iran

767
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 4: as a plots its response to what happened just in

768
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 4: the last twelve or so hours.

769
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 11: So I think contrary to the image or the image

770
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 11: that has been presented of the Ivani leadership in Washington,

771
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 11: I think it's quite clear that the Ivani leadership tends

772
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 11: to actually be rather cautious and very calculating act.

773
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 6: That's part of the reason why it's.

774
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 11: Become such a potent foe of Israel and the United States.

775
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 11: And we saw that in the response that Vanyas gave

776
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 11: when the Israelis attacked Ivanian embassy in the Mascus to

777
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 11: the consular compound of it. It was a very measured

778
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:02,240
Speaker 11: response to make sure that it inflict the damage on Israel,

779
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,720
Speaker 11: but not so much to the Israel would have strong

780
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 11: grounds for further escalation, and it seems to have had

781
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 11: some coordination with.

782
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 6: The Bide administration this time around.

783
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 11: However, I think it is much more difficult to count

784
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 11: on that type of a response, that type of a

785
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 11: calibrated response that is designed to strike back but without escalating,

786
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 11: for that actually to be able to succeed, for a

787
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 11: variety of reasons. First of all, this was an attack

788
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 11: against Hamas Hezbolah and Iran within the span of twelve hours.

789
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,720
Speaker 11: This likely means that the response would be a coordinated

790
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 11: response with Iran and several of these different actors, which then,

791
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 11: of course would be different from what we saw in April.

792
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 11: Those other actors do not have the same discipline, nor

793
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 11: do they have necessarily the same objectives in terms of

794
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 11: we've seen clear tensions between the Hutis wanting to escalate

795
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 11: much more and the Iranians holding them back. So I

796
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 11: do fear that this has created a very very explosive situation.

797
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 11: Levannians are likely going to respond together with some of

798
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,879
Speaker 11: these other actors, and I think the Nataniel government knew

799
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 11: exactly what they did, given the fact that we are

800
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 11: now in.

801
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 6: A laying ducked period of the Biden administration.

802
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 11: Biden has proven himself unwilling and incapable of putting any

803
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 11: pressure on Israel in the past, except in that instance

804
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 11: when it came to the Syrian striking against Syria.

805
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 6: But this time around, perhaps you will.

806
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 11: Not even have that, and as a result, the risk

807
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,359
Speaker 11: of a further escalation that drags the US into it

808
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 11: is much much higher than it was.

809
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 3: People Doctor Parsi.

810
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: One of the things that you wrote on Twitter, and

811
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 1: your initial reaction to these assassinations was that this may

812
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 1: be an attempt by bib Ntnyahu to box Kamala harris In.

813
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 1: You know, it's still an open question whether she really

814
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: wants to move away from the Biden policy with regard

815
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 1: to Israel, but that's certainly a possibility, an ongoing possibility,

816
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 1: and so layout for us your logic of how this

817
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 1: could box Kamala hair In and ybb Netnia who would

818
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 1: want to do that?

819
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 11: Well, first on the issue is as to whether she

820
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 11: is moving away from Bida's pause or I think you

821
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 11: quite right. We don't know quite yet, but I think

822
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 11: we can point to the fact that both the body

823
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:17,240
Speaker 11: language and on a rhetorical level, there is a shift,

824
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 11: and it's a rather important shift. Any substantive shift will

825
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 11: have to be preceded by.

826
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 6: Such a rhetorical shift.

827
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 11: Now doesn't mean that the rhetorical shift automatically will lead

828
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 11: to it, but if we were to see a substantive shift,

829
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 11: this is one of the first steps that we would see.

830
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 11: But more importantly, how does N'taiano preceive this given the

831
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 11: fact that he will not.

832
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 6: Take any chances.

833
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 11: I assume that based on the conversation he had with

834
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris, what she said publicly, the body language, et cetera,

835
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 11: he would be quite unlikely to calculate that Harris is

836
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 11: not going to try to shift away, not just rhetorically

837
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 11: but on substance, away from where Biden is man, which

838
00:41:58,320 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 11: incidentally is not terribly hard.

839
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:03,720
Speaker 6: I mean, bar is very very low right. So given

840
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:05,280
Speaker 6: that what.

841
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 11: Does he do now before she actually potentially becomes president,

842
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 11: of course, is all assuming that she would win, I

843
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 11: think one of the things that he would want to

844
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 11: do is to box her in, create a crisis that

845
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,280
Speaker 11: forces her into the same type of a beer hug

846
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 11: that by then voluntarily chose to adopt after October seventh,

847
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 11: and by that crisis also take away the opportunity for

848
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 11: her to have the initiative. She's going to be forced

849
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 11: to react rather to be able to come in as president.

850
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 11: If she wins, of course, with a new policy and

851
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,240
Speaker 11: a new initiative, she will only be able to respond

852
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 11: to him and the crisis that he has created, rather

853
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 11: than actually being able to come in and decide, you know,

854
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 11: essentially sends strong signals to Israel or what she would

855
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 11: like them to do instead she's going to be responding.

856
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 4: And you know, there's already been some speculation about the

857
00:42:55,160 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 4: potential for if is confirmed as an Israeli much obviously

858
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 4: appears to be what does that mean for how it

859
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 4: could backfire potentially if there is a Harris administration, if

860
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 4: there is UH you know, going forward, it does look

861
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 4: like this is something that the US and their relationship

862
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 4: or our relationship with Iran. You know, there's there's a

863
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 4: total this is a new situation. This kind of upends

864
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 4: the diplomacy efforts as meager as they were. So is

865
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 4: there any chance that it backfires on Netsa Yahu?

866
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 5: You know?

867
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 4: And there are a million different ways that could happen.

868
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 4: But even just if there is UH, you know, an

869
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:41,320
Speaker 4: escalation and the US is even more UH or even

870
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 4: you know less, the public, the public in the United

871
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 4: States is even less supportive of Netsya who's war effort.

872
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,439
Speaker 4: That puts politicians in a different situation too.

873
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 11: I think you're absolutely right, and I think on a

874
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 11: strategic level, in the long run, we have seen a

875
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 11: lot of these different stunts by Netannan backfiring when it

876
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,959
Speaker 11: comes to his long term interest tactically enable to gain

877
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,280
Speaker 11: some things, but in the long term, it has backfired.

878
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 11: Even the attack on April one against the Consulate of

879
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 11: Ivan in Damascus, I think backfired because it also forced

880
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 11: Biden to finally actually put some red lines in front

881
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 11: of Nathaniel, something that he clearly had not done when

882
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 11: it comes to Nathaniel who slaughter in Gaza. But nevertheless,

883
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 11: in the short rum, I think it's going to unfortunately

884
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:28,879
Speaker 11: have similar impacts as we've seen before. But I think

885
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 11: one of the things that is happening right now is

886
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 11: that it's becoming increasingly clear to an increasing number of

887
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 11: Americans who don't want to see the United States go

888
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 11: into more wars in the Middle who don't want to

889
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 11: see the United States get dragged into wars, whether in

890
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 11: the Middle East or elsewhere our tire of these forever wars,

891
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 11: that the one country that is most likely and most

892
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:52,720
Speaker 11: intent on dragging the US into such a war is Israel.

893
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 6: It's not just you know what is happening in Europe,

894
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 6: et cetera.

895
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 11: And I think this is also starting to become more

896
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 11: clear on the conservative side, where I think support for

897
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 11: Israel perhaps has been a little bit more reflexive than

898
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 11: he has been.

899
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 6: On the Democratic side, for the last ten.

900
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 11: Years, so there is a big shift amongst the American populists.

901
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 11: And I think if this leads to a large escalation

902
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 11: and the American bodybacks come home from this war, then

903
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 11: I think tactically, perhaps it had helped nathaniawe just wants

904
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 11: to prolong his reign as prime minister.

905
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 6: Strategically, I think it will be very bad for.

906
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: Visual last question I have for you, doctor Parci Control room,

907
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 1: if you could put the final element I believe we

908
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: have at labeled C four up on the screen.

909
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 3: This was Jeremy.

910
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: Scahill over at drop Site News interviewed a scholar of

911
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: Hebola amal Sad and, as this was before the assassination

912
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: of Ismail Haniya, asked what a war with Hesbola could

913
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 1: look like, and in part he said, listen, we're talking

914
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 1: here about a much more sophisticated military organization, well over

915
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand fighters, well over that number, over one

916
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand missiles and rockets. He went on

917
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 1: to say, from all the information I've been gas, it

918
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:04,760
Speaker 1: would actually lead to the unraveling of the Israeli state.

919
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 1: We're not talking here about just a defeat for Israel

920
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: like in two thousand and six, it would be the

921
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 1: sort of defeat that would actually lead to its demise.

922
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 1: I'd love for you to react to that if you

923
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 1: agree with that assessment and lay out for us in

924
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: a little bit starker detail the escalatory spiral and where

925
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 1: it could lead and what it could mean for the

926
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 1: US in particular.

927
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 11: Wells, as was said in that interview, more than one

928
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 11: hundred thousand fighters, we're talking about more than one hundred

929
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 11: fifty thousand projectiles. We know that Israel's air defenses are

930
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 11: not as impenetratable as many thought them to be, mindful

931
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 11: of the fact that Ivani has managed to gets nine

932
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:49,800
Speaker 11: ballistic missiles through, as well as a much more sophisticated

933
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:51,320
Speaker 11: technological base.

934
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 6: For that fighting force.

935
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 11: Given all of that, and particularly if it then also

936
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 11: means that the utes yvonne Ibaqi militias and others will

937
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 11: be involved, it is no longer a question as to

938
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 11: whether militarily where the balance ends up. It's whether a

939
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 11: state like Israel can sustain such a conflict. And I

940
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 11: think already seeing ten months into the war in Gaza

941
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 11: in which the Israelis are not suffering militarily but nevertheless

942
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 11: they're failing strategically and even tactically. How that has created

943
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 11: very very strong raptures within Israeli society. We've seen how

944
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 11: the right wing there and very hardline elements have gotten

945
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 11: more and more leeway, to the point of what we

946
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 11: saw just in the last couple of days in which

947
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 11: they were attacking prisons in order to be able to

948
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 11: release Israeli soldiers that had been arrested because of the

949
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 11: torture that they had conducted against Pastinian prisoners. And now

950
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 11: they have been released once again they won. We've seen

951
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 11: how that country's gone more and more in a very

952
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 11: very radical direction. Such a radical direction almost invites self implosion.

953
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 11: This is at least part of the narrative exists out

954
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 11: in the Middle East, part of the reason why they

955
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 11: think that such a military confrontation with Israel, even if

956
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 11: it is lost militarily, strategically, nevertheless, it will lead to

957
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 11: the collapse of Israel. Whether it's true or not, it's

958
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 11: really impossible to say, but they're clearly are signs and

959
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 11: support of.

960
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 6: That analysis given what is happening in Israel today.

961
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 1: Doctor Parsi, is always so great to have your insights

962
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: and especially on such a consequential day.

963
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 3: So thank you so much, my pleasure, Thank you so much.

964
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 4: All right, you may be looking at your screen and wondering, Wow,

965
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:37,760
Speaker 4: there are four wonderful women here.

966
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 5: Why who is doing this to us? Just kidding.

967
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 4: We are joined by Rachel Beauvard of the Conservative Partnership

968
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 4: Institute and an Estepman of the Independent Women's Forum. We

969
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 4: have a huge panel that we are going to get into.

970
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 4: I think there might be some fighting, we'll see, but

971
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 4: before we do, we want to make sure we mentioned

972
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 4: this amazing special.

973
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974
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975
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979
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980
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Speaker 4: but I love watching Crystal and Sager all put together

981
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Speaker 5: So BP free one.

983
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985
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986
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:40,400
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987
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Speaker 4: So we will be there for all of that and

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Speaker 4: you can try it free at BP free one promo

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Speaker 4: code at breakingpoints dot com. All right, so we are

990
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 4: again joined by the lovely and As Stepman of the

991
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 4: Independent Women's Forum and the lovely Rachel Bouvard of the

992
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 4: Conservative Partnership Institute, both on the right, and we are

993
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 4: going to get into big topics. Obviously cat ladies. We

994
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 4: couldn't have these two on without talking about cat ladies.

995
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 4: Will we'll get into that. We want to start that.

996
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 4: We can put E two up on the screen. Kamala

997
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 4: Harris is on a swing state tour. She's looking at

998
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 4: potential vice presidential candidates from Tim Waltz to Josh Shapiro.

999
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 4: I kind of feel like Shapiro has the lead on this.

1000
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 4: We're going to get in a lot of social issue

1001
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 4: questions later with the panel, but let's just start. I

1002
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 4: want to toss this to you, Rachel, with Kamala Harris

1003
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 4: trying to put together the Obama coalition in some of

1004
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 4: these states, where she said things like straight up she

1005
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 4: wants to ban fracking. That's going to be all over

1006
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 4: the air waves in Pennsylvania from now unto election day,

1007
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:45,720
Speaker 4: as we said earlier in the show.

1008
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 5: So is there anything she can do?

1009
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 4: Is there any vice presidential candidate that could really be

1010
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 4: an advantage give her an advantage in some of those states?

1011
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 4: I know you've worked on actually how the right can

1012
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 4: start to both of you and as a Rachel both

1013
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 4: worked on how the right can start to make a

1014
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 4: sustainable coalition out of the gains that made with the

1015
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 4: Obama coalition. So what do you make of how Harris

1016
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 4: could potentially do that?

1017
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 8: I think you're probably right that Josh Shapiro I think

1018
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 8: balances the ticket in that regard. I think he seems

1019
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 8: a little bit more moderate. He talks, I think, more

1020
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 8: to the moderate faction of the Democratic Party. But I

1021
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 8: also think that you have you know, I wouldn't sleep

1022
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 8: on someone like Mark Kelly, who I think has made

1023
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:31,760
Speaker 8: his career in that sort of moderate vein. He also

1024
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 8: has a lot of political architecture behind him, right you know,

1025
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 8: he and his wife have built a pretty massive fundraising

1026
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:46,359
Speaker 8: and policy advocacy group on gun control. He brings that

1027
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 8: to the ticket. I also think he speaks, you know,

1028
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 8: well to these voters. He can balance Kamala Harris's progressivism

1029
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 8: a little bit, you know, by swinging to the middle.

1030
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 8: He's made his whole career that way. He's like the

1031
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,439
Speaker 8: least inoffensive Democrat in the Senate, and I think that's

1032
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 8: by design. So I think he brings that you know,

1033
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,279
Speaker 8: and then you have people you know. Reportedly, she's also

1034
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:08,439
Speaker 8: considering people like Andy Basheer, who's governor of Kentucky, who

1035
00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 8: I think has proven his political medal by surviving in

1036
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 8: that state and moderating where necessary. But he's interesting to

1037
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 8: me watching him sort of take on the JD. Vance

1038
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:27,479
Speaker 8: hillbilly esque persona, saying things like, oh well, he ain't

1039
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:29,799
Speaker 8: from here, Like you have a little bit of an

1040
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 8: authenticity issue. I think with Bashir that rivals that of

1041
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 8: Kamala Harris when you think about the fact that, yes,

1042
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 8: Andy Basheer, you are from Kentucky, but not everyone can

1043
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 8: have their first job out of law school be handed

1044
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:42,839
Speaker 8: to him from his daddy's law firm. So I do

1045
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,280
Speaker 8: think there's, you know, a little bit of a trihard

1046
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:47,360
Speaker 8: element there. But you know, she's got I think some

1047
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 8: interesting picks, and I think what's going to be challenging

1048
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 8: is when Obama was president, you had very much of

1049
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 8: a different dynamic now than I think you have an

1050
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 8: a Democratic party today, which is you have a progressivism

1051
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 8: ascendant to some extent. There's a definitely, you know, Joe

1052
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 8: Biden has shown that, and I think wetting those two,

1053
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 8: that those sort of moderate faction and the progressive wing

1054
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:14,799
Speaker 8: is going to be more difficult now than it was

1055
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 8: for Obama. And I don't know that you blend them

1056
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:19,720
Speaker 8: as easily. Frankly.

1057
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 1: I mean, what we're seeing in the polls right now is,

1058
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:24,400
Speaker 1: by the way, I want to say, for the record,

1059
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 1: this panel was my idea. I wanted to be outnumbered

1060
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 1: ideologically overwhelmingly today apparently for some reason.

1061
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 3: But it's always lovely to see.

1062
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 1: You at least what the polling is showing now. Democrats

1063
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 1: are so working happy. It's not Joe Biden that everyone

1064
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 1: is more or less unified, you know. I mean, that's

1065
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 1: why you've seen RFK Junior's vote totals, you know, diminishing,

1066
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 1: and the people who were disaffected Biden voters coming back home.

1067
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 1: By and large, you have the Democratic coalition pretty unified,

1068
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 1: which is why I think, and you know, I am

1069
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 1: ideologically inclined to think this. Let's be clear that Joshapiro

1070
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,160
Speaker 1: is actually a risky choice because of his comment and

1071
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 1: he compared pro Palaesim protesters to the KKK. This is

1072
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 1: obviously an issue that has been very fraught within the

1073
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 1: Democratic base, and so to raise the salience of that

1074
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 1: and for lack of a better phrase, to like kill

1075
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 1: the unified and excited vibes that exist right now, to me,

1076
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 1: that's a risk. You also have unions not excited about

1077
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 1: him because he's super pro chouter school. You have an

1078
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:24,759
Speaker 1: issue with him, you know, allegations that he covered up

1079
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:29,320
Speaker 1: sexual harassment in his office, and also a personal irritation,

1080
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:33,280
Speaker 1: which is that he sounds like dollar Store Obama. So, however,

1081
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 1: and as it looks, the tea leaves are looking very

1082
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 1: much in the direction of Joshapiro. In addition to the fact,

1083
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 1: there were some new indications this morning she's picking a governor.

1084
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 3: She had said.

1085
00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:46,919
Speaker 1: Previously, according to reports, that she was looking for someone

1086
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 1: with quote unquote executive experience.

1087
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 3: In addition, we just.

1088
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 1: Got the list of the battleground stops that she's making

1089
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:58,840
Speaker 1: next week after she announces her VP pick, and the

1090
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 1: very first one is Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. So as a conservative,

1091
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:07,440
Speaker 1: you know, what do you make of Josh Shapiro.

1092
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:07,720
Speaker 3: On the ticket.

1093
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:09,919
Speaker 1: Do you think he's additive or do you think it's

1094
00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 1: overstated what he can bring in terms of delivering the

1095
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 1: state of Pennsylvania.

1096
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 12: So, first of all, like to agree with you from

1097
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,239
Speaker 12: the right, Crystal, which is that I would call it

1098
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 12: New Jersey grandparent, like New Jersey Jewish grandparents meets Obama.

1099
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:25,719
Speaker 3: The accent that he's putting on.

1100
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:28,480
Speaker 1: I hate it so much, I can't even tell you.

1101
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 1: There's a whole generation of Democratic politicians who are completely

1102
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 1: poisoned by the like Obama, Cadence, Pete Boodhagic, Beta O'Rourke,

1103
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro, Corey Booker. The list goes on and on

1104
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 1: and is like such a personal pet peeve. It's so

1105
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 1: irritating to me.

1106
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:45,840
Speaker 12: Yeah, I agree, and it is that very recognizable Cadence

1107
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 12: and even some of the phrases. It's just it's it

1108
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 12: is very noticeable in terms of the ticket and balancing

1109
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:55,319
Speaker 12: the ticket. There's in some way the Democratic Party, I

1110
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 12: think has some of the similar issues because of the

1111
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:01,400
Speaker 12: swing states that exists, which let's from everybody you know,

1112
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,040
Speaker 12: when we had discussions about the electoral college many years ago,

1113
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:06,280
Speaker 12: was Oh, we're always going to be talking about Florida

1114
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:06,800
Speaker 12: and Ohio.

1115
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 3: Well, no we're not.

1116
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 12: We're talking about you know, just a decade later, we're

1117
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 12: talking about a totally different crop of states, and the

1118
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 12: fact that those states are very different. You have a

1119
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 12: like a sun Belt group of those states, right, of

1120
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 12: those swing states plus Georgia, and then you have the

1121
00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 12: rust Belt states, and those states have very different geographical interests,

1122
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 12: they have different economic interests. So I think it's really

1123
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 12: interesting if the principle on the ticket doesn't have a

1124
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:37,799
Speaker 12: strong appeal in one or the other region, it's very

1125
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,360
Speaker 12: difficult for the other person to balance it because you

1126
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 12: kind of have to pick and those between the sun

1127
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 12: Belt and the rust Belt. And like I said, they

1128
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 12: have different economic interrusts, they have their different.

1129
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:49,760
Speaker 3: Cultural interests in many ways.

1130
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:52,440
Speaker 12: So I think that's probably a dynamic that will continue

1131
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:55,239
Speaker 12: in both parties for quite some time. That being said,

1132
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 12: I don't know. Maybe I'm just not, you know, up

1133
00:56:57,560 --> 00:56:59,919
Speaker 12: on the horse race enough, but I don't I sort

1134
00:56:59,920 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 12: of doubt that vice presidential picks make as much difference

1135
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 12: as people seem to think that they do in elections.

1136
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:08,439
Speaker 12: I think the principles are much more important. The people

1137
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:11,760
Speaker 12: running for president are much more important to people's votes.

1138
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:15,320
Speaker 12: I actually think they make more, they have a higher

1139
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 12: importance after the election. So I no longer agree with

1140
00:57:19,000 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 12: John Adams that the vice presidency is a useless endeavor,

1141
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 12: especially because Congress is so sclerotic, can do so little.

1142
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 12: If you have a active vice president with an active

1143
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 12: agenda in the executive branch, they can do a lot.

1144
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:33,960
Speaker 3: They can shape the agenda a lot.

1145
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:36,439
Speaker 12: And the other thing, at least on their publican side,

1146
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 12: is to signal the future of the party right and

1147
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 12: so jd Vance, I think is a very clear pick

1148
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 12: on both of those post election metrics, Whereas I think

1149
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 12: you're right to say that the Democratic Party will not

1150
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 12: get a signal to its base that if Josh Shapiro

1151
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 12: is picked, that it's going in the direction that its

1152
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:58,000
Speaker 12: base wants to. So I actually think those things are

1153
00:57:58,040 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 12: probably more important. And a vice presidential pick then how

1154
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:03,920
Speaker 12: they're going to balance the ticket or the states or

1155
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 12: I just I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong, but I

1156
00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 12: think that stuff is overblown. I don't think people care

1157
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:10,920
Speaker 12: nearly as much about who the vice presidential pick is

1158
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 12: as as I guess political commentators, do you know.

1159
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 1: I actually and I say, actually, do go ahead, Rachel Well.

1160
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 8: I was just going to say, I think that you know,

1161
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:22,040
Speaker 8: and as you're correct in the I think that the

1162
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 8: frames for the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign are

1163
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 8: slightly different on the vice presidential pick, because I do

1164
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 8: think for the most part, you know this, the dvanced

1165
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 8: pick on the right is signaling where the direction of

1166
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 8: the party is going. But I think Kamala Harris has

1167
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 8: a different set of challenges when she's picking her VP,

1168
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:40,040
Speaker 8: which is that she needs a validator, right she is hindered.

1169
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 8: I think, you know, from where I sit, from a

1170
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,640
Speaker 8: host of progressive baggage she has. She has said things

1171
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 8: that will not resonate to your point in the Ross belt.

1172
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 8: You know, I think it's going to have a hard

1173
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 8: time speaking to the moderate wing of the Democratic Party.

1174
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 8: I think she needs a VP that can speak on

1175
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:58,800
Speaker 8: her behalf. I think there's also the fact that she

1176
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:03,360
Speaker 8: has a hard time maybe articulating coherent thoughts in certain scenarios.

1177
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 8: I think this might be one of them, to put

1178
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 8: it gently, and so I do think it actually matters

1179
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 8: who she picks because she needs the validator, she needs

1180
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 8: someone who can speak for her to certain groups. And

1181
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 8: so I think the frame the selection crame is slightly

1182
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 8: different on the right and the left.

1183
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 1: I think some of that is fair. I actually do

1184
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:22,160
Speaker 1: think the VP pick matters. Obviously, the principle matters more like,

1185
00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 1: obviously people are primarily voting for the present. But you know,

1186
00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 1: if you look back at Trump's pick of Vance, I

1187
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:31,040
Speaker 1: think that was important for him because at that point

1188
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 1: there was still evangelical skepticism of him. In between the

1189
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 1: Vance pick and then putting out the list of the

1190
00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 1: Supreme Court picks, that kind of like solidified him with

1191
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:41,800
Speaker 1: a group of voters that were a little bit shaky.

1192
00:59:41,960 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 1: I also think a vice presidential pick can do harm.

1193
00:59:44,080 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 1: I think Sarah Palin did end up being harmful to

1194
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:49,480
Speaker 1: John McCain and showed when he was supposed to be

1195
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 1: like the adult in the room and the you know,

1196
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 1: serious statesmen, et cetera, the fact that she didn't fit

1197
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 1: with that image and became a campaign liability in the

1198
00:59:57,680 --> 00:59:59,959
Speaker 1: subject of endless media stories of coverage, et cetera.

1199
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 3: I think that was a problem for him.

1200
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:04,600
Speaker 1: I think Joe Biden, to your point, Rachel about being

1201
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 1: sort of like, you know, a validator or someone who

1202
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 1: was like a more comfortable pick for certain segments of society.

1203
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 1: I think Joe Biden served that role well for Barack Obama.

1204
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 1: He knew foreign policy, been in the Senate forever. He's

1205
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:20,000
Speaker 1: just like comes off as this sort of like, you know,

1206
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 1: middle of the road, moderate white dude. And that's kind

1207
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 1: of similar framework that the Harris people are looking at now.

1208
01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 1: I mean, there's a reason everyone's been joking about, you know,

1209
01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:32,000
Speaker 1: the quest for the perfect like white guy to be

1210
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 1: on the ticket, to provide that level of comfort, and

1211
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:37,800
Speaker 1: also with regard to the quote unquote vibes, because unfortunately

1212
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:39,560
Speaker 1: that is so much of what our politics are about.

1213
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 1: Much of the chagrin if I think everybody on this

1214
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:45,280
Speaker 1: panel a white dude from the Midwest, whether it's Tim

1215
01:00:45,320 --> 01:00:48,440
Speaker 1: Wallas who has a very progressive record, or Andy Basheer,

1216
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 1: who has actually pretty good on labor and other issues

1217
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 1: but more moderate in other regards, or whether it's Josh Shapiro,

1218
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 1: like they all come off as this just sort of

1219
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:02,040
Speaker 1: mainstream pick because it's the vibes, and it's what we're

1220
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:03,800
Speaker 1: used to seeing in America. It is also like the

1221
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:07,160
Speaker 1: way that they communicate Tim Walls. Even though he does

1222
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:11,240
Speaker 1: have this pretty impressive, from my perspective, progressive record, he

1223
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: still comes off as that like high school teacher, veteran

1224
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:20,560
Speaker 1: you know, Minesota guide very relatable dude, even, you know,

1225
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 1: in spite of that record, and I think is very

1226
01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:25,320
Speaker 1: good at messaging that record to people who might be

1227
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 1: on the fence about a Kamala Harris ticket.

1228
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 5: Before we live on Wait, can I.

1229
01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:34,320
Speaker 3: Not even push back so much as just narrow what

1230
01:01:34,360 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 3: I'm saying?

1231
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:38,480
Speaker 12: Yeah, I actually I think a better way of saying

1232
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 12: what I was going. What I tried to say earlier,

1233
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 12: is that I think it matters more for intra party

1234
01:01:43,920 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 12: dynamics than for swing voters. I have a hard time,

1235
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 12: for example, imagining the person who is comfortable with the

1236
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:55,920
Speaker 12: things that Trump says and does, and is not comfortable

1237
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:58,200
Speaker 12: with the things that jd Vance says and does. I

1238
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:01,440
Speaker 12: actually think that that person prop only exists in the Beltway,

1239
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 12: where people have much more specific views both about policy

1240
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:08,280
Speaker 12: and like about uh, you know, sort of. I guess

1241
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:14,280
Speaker 12: even vibes indicate what ideological camp you're in, so I

1242
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:16,800
Speaker 12: see it much more. I agree with you that and

1243
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:19,800
Speaker 12: the specific example of Sarah Palin, I would say the opposite.

1244
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 12: In the beginning, Sarah Palin is the only thing that

1245
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 12: made the Republican Party excited. I think about the McCain ticket.

1246
01:02:27,120 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 12: I just think the more our politics become national, the more.

1247
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 3: Divided the country.

1248
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 12: Is, the more the more these kinds of regional politics

1249
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 12: fade out when it comes to the vice presidential pick.

1250
01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:41,080
Speaker 3: And it's a very.

1251
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 12: Traditional thing like actually, you know, in the nineteenth century

1252
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 12: in America, it mattered enormously how to geographically balance the ticket.

1253
01:02:48,560 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 12: I just tend to think that our politics are moving

1254
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:54,200
Speaker 12: away from that, and I think there are probably some

1255
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 12: things to lament about the fact that our politics is

1256
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:57,160
Speaker 12: moving away from that.

1257
01:02:58,560 --> 01:03:01,680
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, I think the best.

1258
01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:04,280
Speaker 12: Thing probably a VP pick can do is probably solidify

1259
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:07,480
Speaker 12: and excite the party to the extent that the party

1260
01:03:07,560 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 12: is not excited about the main nominee in.

1261
01:03:11,200 --> 01:03:13,320
Speaker 3: Terms of the election. Like I said, I think vps are.

1262
01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:16,960
Speaker 12: Very important for the future trajectory of a party and

1263
01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 12: then what happens if that party is actually elected to

1264
01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 12: office in Washington, I.

1265
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:23,600
Speaker 3: Think much more important than it used to be.

1266
01:03:23,640 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 12: It used to be that most useless office ever devised

1267
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:29,520
Speaker 12: by Van Right, But I think that's much less true now.

1268
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 3: But in terms of the election, I think it's.

1269
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 12: Probably more important intra party and what you're saying to

1270
01:03:36,440 --> 01:03:38,760
Speaker 12: the people who are either going to be excited to

1271
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 12: turn out for you or not excited to turn out.

1272
01:03:41,400 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 3: Maybe do something else that day on election day.

1273
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:46,640
Speaker 12: I think that's probably more where VP picks make a difference.

1274
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 4: So before we move on, I just want to we

1275
01:03:49,440 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 4: can put I'm going to go out of order here,

1276
01:03:51,240 --> 01:03:51,800
Speaker 4: control room.

1277
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:53,440
Speaker 5: I just want to put E five up on the screen.

1278
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:55,160
Speaker 5: This is Kamala Harris.

1279
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:59,000
Speaker 4: A report that says Kamala Harris is going through portfolios

1280
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:01,120
Speaker 4: basically of different binders full of men.

1281
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:04,600
Speaker 5: Maybe this is the right way to put it. Ron women.

1282
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:07,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, cal Laire's is setting through binders full of

1283
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 4: white dudes to look for who she could pick. Now

1284
01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:16,880
Speaker 4: she's expected to make that decision by early August, so

1285
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:17,800
Speaker 4: very very soon.

1286
01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:19,360
Speaker 5: Now we go to E.

1287
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 11: Four.

1288
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 4: We've mentioned Andy Basheer a couple of times, and he's

1289
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 4: been exchanging sort of romantic tweets ex posts with his wife,

1290
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:33,840
Speaker 4: maybe suggesting something big is on the horizon we don't know.

1291
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:37,200
Speaker 4: Could mean anything could just be normal back and forth.

1292
01:04:37,840 --> 01:04:40,760
Speaker 4: But you know, I think Crystal and Rachel could have

1293
01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:44,760
Speaker 4: maybe an interesting exchange on whether Basher A is a

1294
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 4: viable vice presidential candidate. But b I think maybe is

1295
01:04:48,040 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 4: viable as the future of the Democratic Party. Where we

1296
01:04:50,320 --> 01:04:53,280
Speaker 4: just left off in this conversation. So I know you

1297
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 4: guys disagree on this. I'll toss it to Rachel first.

1298
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:57,240
Speaker 4: You can flesh out a little bit of what you

1299
01:04:57,320 --> 01:05:01,200
Speaker 4: said earlier. He has made some interesting decisions on stuff

1300
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:05,200
Speaker 4: beyond you know, just sort of traditional Democratic Party left

1301
01:05:05,240 --> 01:05:08,080
Speaker 4: stances on labor and all that. He's one of the

1302
01:05:08,080 --> 01:05:10,560
Speaker 4: more interesting figures. I would say him and Waltz are

1303
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:14,760
Speaker 4: interesting in the context of like realignment politics. So what

1304
01:05:14,760 --> 01:05:16,000
Speaker 4: do you make of Basher Rachel?

1305
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:19,960
Speaker 8: Well, you know, I think he's any any governor who

1306
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 8: survives in a state that routinely sends Ran Paul and

1307
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 8: Mitch McCollums for the Senate, you know, I think is interesting.

1308
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:29,440
Speaker 8: You know, you're you're building and he's built a sustainable coalition.

1309
01:05:29,520 --> 01:05:32,760
Speaker 8: Now he's also you know, his father was a governor.

1310
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 8: He's trending a little bit on you know, family dynamics

1311
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 8: in that sense that dynastic stuff always matters, I think

1312
01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:42,439
Speaker 8: in state politics to a great degree. You know, when

1313
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:46,320
Speaker 8: you think about him vaulting to the national ticket, if

1314
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 8: we talk about vibes in our politics, my objection to

1315
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 8: him at that stage is purely aesthetic because I just

1316
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 8: think that the like he and JD. Vans trying to

1317
01:05:56,120 --> 01:05:58,680
Speaker 8: outheill Billy each other is going to be insufferable. And

1318
01:05:58,720 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 8: that is that I think, you know, you're already kind

1319
01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 8: of seeing that. That's why I brought up that comment

1320
01:06:03,840 --> 01:06:05,800
Speaker 8: where he was talking about JD. Van saying, when you

1321
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 8: ain't from here, I think it's literally going to be

1322
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:11,280
Speaker 8: like the War of Appalachia on the vice presidential ticket.

1323
01:06:11,320 --> 01:06:13,919
Speaker 8: And you know, I just that is a vibe, right,

1324
01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 8: and we could be here for it, but I also

1325
01:06:15,520 --> 01:06:17,000
Speaker 8: think it would just be insufferable.

1326
01:06:17,880 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 1: I'm here for the War of Appalachia, No, I see.

1327
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:25,240
Speaker 1: Andy Bashir is actually a fascinating character to me because

1328
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:27,800
Speaker 1: I know him a little bit when I lived in Kentucky.

1329
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:31,240
Speaker 1: His vibe is very much like Mini Van Dad. Really truly,

1330
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:34,240
Speaker 1: that's how he comes off, and I think that has

1331
01:06:34,320 --> 01:06:37,200
Speaker 1: served him in terms of his political persona. He is

1332
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 1: not a particularly charismatic figure. He's sort of the anti

1333
01:06:41,480 --> 01:06:45,120
Speaker 1: cult of personality. And you know, the context in which

1334
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:47,840
Speaker 1: he gets elected initially in Kentucky is listen, the fact

1335
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:50,240
Speaker 1: he's a basher, No doubt, it makes a big difference.

1336
01:06:50,280 --> 01:06:51,400
Speaker 3: In Kentucky in particular.

1337
01:06:51,520 --> 01:06:54,840
Speaker 1: These things matter, these like historic names, since s it's

1338
01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 1: a state that was democratic and is trended to the right.

1339
01:06:58,400 --> 01:07:00,959
Speaker 1: The Democrats who have like that his connection it helps

1340
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 1: a lot. But it also was on the back of

1341
01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:07,240
Speaker 1: the teacher's strike wave and the previous governor, Matt Bevin,

1342
01:07:07,240 --> 01:07:09,840
Speaker 1: who was himself the sort of like Trumpian businessman out

1343
01:07:09,840 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 1: of nowhere kind of a figure, he had gone after

1344
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:18,000
Speaker 1: teacher pensions. It had created a massive cross partisan backlash

1345
01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 1: across the entire state, and so Andy comes in on

1346
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:24,360
Speaker 1: that promise. A part of why he's been so popular,

1347
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:27,600
Speaker 1: he's the most popular democratic governor in the entire country,

1348
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,600
Speaker 1: which I think is astonishing, is because he's really delivered

1349
01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 1: the goods. There's been a huge amount of job creation

1350
01:07:33,920 --> 01:07:35,000
Speaker 1: in the state of Kentucky.

1351
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:40,200
Speaker 3: He's attracted a number of large scale battery like ev battery.

1352
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:42,560
Speaker 1: Plants of the state, which from a democratic perspective too,

1353
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, you delivered the jobs, their union jobs,

1354
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 1: and their green energy jobs. So that's part of why

1355
01:07:48,240 --> 01:07:52,240
Speaker 1: he's been so incredibly popular there. So listen, I obviously

1356
01:07:52,280 --> 01:07:54,440
Speaker 1: think he could be additive to a ticket, just from

1357
01:07:54,480 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 1: the sense of he's proven that he can speak to

1358
01:07:56,680 --> 01:08:00,160
Speaker 1: people who may otherwise be skeptical of a Democratic Party.

1359
01:08:00,440 --> 01:08:01,200
Speaker 3: He's had his.

1360
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:03,920
Speaker 1: Eye on the ball in terms of, you know, some

1361
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 1: of the populist instincts of Kentucky as a state. Kentucky's

1362
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:08,840
Speaker 1: not just like a hard right conservative state, is a

1363
01:08:08,840 --> 01:08:11,960
Speaker 1: little more politically interesting than that. So yeah, I think

1364
01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 1: he'd be a decent pick, you know, electorally. I understand

1365
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 1: the appeal of Shapiro because of Pennsylvania and because he

1366
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 1: won there by freaking sixteen points. I just think, to

1367
01:08:21,000 --> 01:08:24,559
Speaker 1: Anez's point about keeping the positive vibes and the excitement

1368
01:08:24,560 --> 01:08:27,599
Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party, he could be a problem there

1369
01:08:27,960 --> 01:08:30,519
Speaker 1: to be. The ideal candidate is Tim Wallace, who is

1370
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:33,160
Speaker 1: such an effective messenger. This will be a good transition

1371
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:36,320
Speaker 1: to the JD Vance and the Weird Conversation all of that. Like,

1372
01:08:36,520 --> 01:08:40,479
Speaker 1: he came up with this tagline that has now rapidly

1373
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:44,679
Speaker 1: been embraced by everyone in Democratic circles. You know, used

1374
01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:47,519
Speaker 1: over and over and over again, and you guys may disagree,

1375
01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:49,400
Speaker 1: but I actually think it is an effective tag in

1376
01:08:49,439 --> 01:08:52,479
Speaker 1: the same way that some of Trump's tags and nicknames

1377
01:08:52,479 --> 01:08:55,759
Speaker 1: like Crooked Hillary, et cetera, were kind of devastating and effective.

1378
01:08:56,160 --> 01:08:58,320
Speaker 1: So to me, that proves his bona fides not only

1379
01:08:58,320 --> 01:09:01,040
Speaker 1: in terms of the record that I like as or Minnesota,

1380
01:09:01,120 --> 01:09:03,559
Speaker 1: but in terms of how he's able to communicate about

1381
01:09:03,560 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 1: that message and frame the opposition.

1382
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:12,160
Speaker 4: Crystal's right, that's a good point to move on because

1383
01:09:12,320 --> 01:09:14,639
Speaker 4: you will be shocked to learn that when you have

1384
01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:19,120
Speaker 4: four women doing a segment, sometimes you talk more than expected,

1385
01:09:19,200 --> 01:09:23,320
Speaker 4: and that was the case here. So let's talk about

1386
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:28,479
Speaker 4: out the battle to brand Republicans as weird. I will

1387
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 4: say one thing that I think is getting missed in

1388
01:09:30,160 --> 01:09:33,599
Speaker 4: that conversation, because I was at the RNC and I

1389
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:36,280
Speaker 4: heard Republicans talking a lot about how this was the

1390
01:09:36,320 --> 01:09:39,240
Speaker 4: election between crazy and normal. Someone, you know, the three

1391
01:09:39,280 --> 01:09:41,519
Speaker 4: of us definitely not on the right, is Terry Shilling,

1392
01:09:41,560 --> 01:09:43,200
Speaker 4: and he likes to say that all the time. This

1393
01:09:43,240 --> 01:09:45,519
Speaker 4: is an election between crazy and normal. So there's some

1394
01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:48,599
Speaker 4: of it happening definitely on both sides. But let's put

1395
01:09:48,640 --> 01:09:51,400
Speaker 4: the first element up on the screen for this block. Please,

1396
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:54,800
Speaker 4: this is John Harwood saying things jd Vance has said

1397
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:59,200
Speaker 4: about people without kids, childless cat ladies, childless, sociate pass lessionan,

1398
01:10:00,439 --> 01:10:05,800
Speaker 4: most arranged, most psychotic, radical, childless leaders, more sociopathic, driftless,

1399
01:10:05,880 --> 01:10:11,760
Speaker 4: childless democrats must be stopped. We also have a sot here,

1400
01:10:12,760 --> 01:10:14,639
Speaker 4: a clip here that we're going to roll of JD

1401
01:10:14,800 --> 01:10:17,080
Speaker 4: Vance and we will get everyone to respond.

1402
01:10:17,160 --> 01:10:19,000
Speaker 5: On the back end of this, you can go ahead

1403
01:10:19,000 --> 01:10:20,080
Speaker 5: and roll the next element.

1404
01:10:20,280 --> 01:10:23,720
Speaker 10: There's just these basic cadences of life that I think

1405
01:10:23,720 --> 01:10:26,320
Speaker 10: are really powerful and really really valuable when you have

1406
01:10:26,439 --> 01:10:29,679
Speaker 10: kids in your life, and the fact that so many people,

1407
01:10:29,880 --> 01:10:33,360
Speaker 10: especially in America's leadership class, just don't have that in

1408
01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:36,400
Speaker 10: their lives, you know, I worry that it makes people

1409
01:10:36,439 --> 01:10:39,719
Speaker 10: more sociopathic and ultimately our whole country a little bit less,

1410
01:10:41,000 --> 01:10:43,320
Speaker 10: a less mentally stable. And of course you talk about

1411
01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:46,320
Speaker 10: going on Twitter. Final point I make is you go

1412
01:10:46,400 --> 01:10:49,679
Speaker 10: on Twitter, and almost always the people who are most

1413
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 10: deranged and most psychotic are people who don't.

1414
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:52,719
Speaker 6: Have kids at home.

1415
01:10:52,920 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 4: So Democrats obviously feel like this is fodder to make

1416
01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:59,559
Speaker 4: that weird label stick to Republicans. Tim Waltz has been

1417
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:02,880
Speaker 4: using it a lot. Kamala Harris now has been using

1418
01:11:02,920 --> 01:11:04,200
Speaker 4: it a lot as well.

1419
01:11:05,439 --> 01:11:06,759
Speaker 5: Now, I will.

1420
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:08,559
Speaker 4: Start by saying, on the right, the three of us,

1421
01:11:08,680 --> 01:11:11,559
Speaker 4: I would say, as compared to the general population are

1422
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:17,960
Speaker 4: politically weird, ideologically politically weird because we're involved in conservative

1423
01:11:17,960 --> 01:11:20,679
Speaker 4: movement circles. And jd Vance was running in those circles

1424
01:11:20,720 --> 01:11:24,200
Speaker 4: before he decided to run for Senate, and before he

1425
01:11:24,280 --> 01:11:26,680
Speaker 4: you know so, he converted to Catholicism. He worked in

1426
01:11:26,680 --> 01:11:29,559
Speaker 4: a super high profile job in the tech industry, converted

1427
01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:34,479
Speaker 4: to Catholicism, had a real ideological transformation that I think

1428
01:11:34,720 --> 01:11:38,560
Speaker 4: you two know as well as anyone, definitely is sincere.

1429
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:41,360
Speaker 4: He was writing like three thousand word essays for the

1430
01:11:41,439 --> 01:11:45,200
Speaker 4: Lamp about his calism and his politics. That would be

1431
01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:49,639
Speaker 4: pretty difficult to totally fake. But is jd Vance? I'll

1432
01:11:49,680 --> 01:11:52,280
Speaker 4: start with who do I want to pick here? Let's

1433
01:11:52,320 --> 01:11:55,960
Speaker 4: start with you Andez because you and Rachel may disagree

1434
01:11:55,960 --> 01:12:00,240
Speaker 4: on this. It is jd Vance going to help Democrats?

1435
01:12:00,360 --> 01:12:02,640
Speaker 4: Is he really giving fodder for Democrats to make this

1436
01:12:02,680 --> 01:12:03,719
Speaker 4: weird label stick?

1437
01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:08,599
Speaker 12: Well, it depends on how he responds, And I think

1438
01:12:08,640 --> 01:12:11,000
Speaker 12: he should learn from the person on the top of

1439
01:12:11,000 --> 01:12:13,080
Speaker 12: the ticket Trump. In this regard, I don't think there's

1440
01:12:13,080 --> 01:12:15,600
Speaker 12: a single pick that Trump could have made where they

1441
01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:17,960
Speaker 12: wouldn't have gone through every statement, like the media wouldn't

1442
01:12:17,960 --> 01:12:20,439
Speaker 12: have gone through every statement and try to pull out

1443
01:12:20,479 --> 01:12:24,320
Speaker 12: some things that, especially isolated from context, sound crazy.

1444
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:25,639
Speaker 3: But I don't want to.

1445
01:12:26,080 --> 01:12:28,519
Speaker 12: Pretend to be a political consultant or someone who works

1446
01:12:28,560 --> 01:12:31,200
Speaker 12: on a campaign. I've always been all the way back Emily,

1447
01:12:31,320 --> 01:12:32,920
Speaker 12: since I've been doing these shows with you, I've always

1448
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:34,880
Speaker 12: been really clear I'm not a political consultant. I don't

1449
01:12:34,920 --> 01:12:38,320
Speaker 12: want to be, and he only an insane person would

1450
01:12:38,400 --> 01:12:38,880
Speaker 12: hire me.

1451
01:12:38,840 --> 01:12:43,680
Speaker 3: As a political consultant. So everything that question that is

1452
01:12:44,439 --> 01:12:44,880
Speaker 3: it true?

1453
01:12:45,320 --> 01:12:49,160
Speaker 12: Right, is the are the underlying things that jd. Vance

1454
01:12:49,560 --> 01:12:52,160
Speaker 12: is indicating or implying are they true?

1455
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:54,519
Speaker 3: And the answer largely is yes.

1456
01:12:54,520 --> 01:12:57,040
Speaker 12: If we set aside the question of how this plays

1457
01:12:57,120 --> 01:13:00,960
Speaker 12: or who's offended by it, we see a huge gap

1458
01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:07,400
Speaker 12: in voting patterns between essentially married men, married women, and

1459
01:13:07,479 --> 01:13:11,559
Speaker 12: unmarried men in one batch that are all between slightly

1460
01:13:11,640 --> 01:13:14,719
Speaker 12: leaning to like you know, fifty five fifty six percent

1461
01:13:14,800 --> 01:13:17,599
Speaker 12: leaning Republican, and then unmarried women, which by the way,

1462
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:20,400
Speaker 12: doesn't tract perfectly with child is obviously, but there is

1463
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:23,920
Speaker 12: not that much pulling on this. So and the unmarried

1464
01:13:24,040 --> 01:13:28,760
Speaker 12: women who are sixty eight percent leaning Democrat, right, So

1465
01:13:29,400 --> 01:13:32,280
Speaker 12: there is a real phenomenon going on here. And then

1466
01:13:32,520 --> 01:13:35,640
Speaker 12: to the psychotic comment, right, whether or not again that

1467
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:39,519
Speaker 12: language is inflammatory. There's all kinds of surveys now showing that,

1468
01:13:40,080 --> 01:13:43,640
Speaker 12: and self reported surveys that liberal Democratic women who are

1469
01:13:43,720 --> 01:13:48,960
Speaker 12: not married report the highest level of mental illness, like

1470
01:13:49,000 --> 01:13:52,760
Speaker 12: themselves report the highest level of mental illness. So he's

1471
01:13:52,800 --> 01:13:56,719
Speaker 12: observing something I think is real. And frankly, I would

1472
01:13:56,720 --> 01:13:59,200
Speaker 12: flip this around and say, we're talking about you know.

1473
01:13:59,320 --> 01:14:00,879
Speaker 3: We've been talking endlessly.

1474
01:14:01,760 --> 01:14:04,559
Speaker 12: I can't remember an election cycle that we weren't talking

1475
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:07,360
Speaker 12: about the gap between male and female voters.

1476
01:14:07,439 --> 01:14:07,639
Speaker 3: Right.

1477
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:10,400
Speaker 12: That gap opened up in the nineteen eighties. It was

1478
01:14:10,479 --> 01:14:12,840
Speaker 12: not there before. It used to go the other way.

1479
01:14:12,880 --> 01:14:16,880
Speaker 12: So in the nineteen fifties, women voted more Republican leaning

1480
01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:20,840
Speaker 12: than men did, but that gap started opening up in

1481
01:14:20,880 --> 01:14:22,560
Speaker 12: the eighties. And I would actually argue that if you

1482
01:14:22,600 --> 01:14:25,599
Speaker 12: look at the underlying statistics, it's less driven by any

1483
01:14:25,640 --> 01:14:29,040
Speaker 12: particular messaging or issue and more driven by the fact

1484
01:14:29,080 --> 01:14:31,440
Speaker 12: that simply fewer and fewer people are getting.

1485
01:14:31,120 --> 01:14:32,479
Speaker 3: Married, and you see that.

1486
01:14:34,320 --> 01:14:38,960
Speaker 12: Gap explode with gen Z where you see now young

1487
01:14:39,080 --> 01:14:43,840
Speaker 12: men going further right and young women going further left.

1488
01:14:43,880 --> 01:14:46,879
Speaker 12: So I think there is something about marriage, about building

1489
01:14:46,920 --> 01:14:51,840
Speaker 12: families with the opposite sex right that tempers the political

1490
01:14:51,880 --> 01:14:53,120
Speaker 12: instincts of the two sexes.

1491
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:54,200
Speaker 3: And I think we are.

1492
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:59,000
Speaker 12: Probably about to see the most male centric campaign versus

1493
01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:03,559
Speaker 12: the most females campaign possible on the respective Republican and

1494
01:15:03,600 --> 01:15:06,280
Speaker 12: Democratic side. It's going to heighten that one final thing.

1495
01:15:06,280 --> 01:15:08,519
Speaker 12: We could just bus easily be talking about a gap

1496
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:13,160
Speaker 12: on the Democratic side among male voters, because in twenty twenty,

1497
01:15:13,560 --> 01:15:15,920
Speaker 12: Joe Biden was able to get those numbers.

1498
01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:17,519
Speaker 3: Pretty close to fifty to fifty.

1499
01:15:17,560 --> 01:15:21,200
Speaker 12: Now Republicans still won men, but not by a huge margin.

1500
01:15:21,920 --> 01:15:25,639
Speaker 12: Kamala Harris is pulling at thirty nine percent with men.

1501
01:15:25,720 --> 01:15:27,840
Speaker 12: So we could just as easily have this conversation. We

1502
01:15:27,880 --> 01:15:30,880
Speaker 12: could have pulled up AOC's tweet about in cells right,

1503
01:15:31,080 --> 01:15:33,000
Speaker 12: and we could have this conversation about in cels and

1504
01:15:33,080 --> 01:15:36,519
Speaker 12: childless cat ladies and the problem that the Democratic Party

1505
01:15:36,560 --> 01:15:37,200
Speaker 12: has with men.

1506
01:15:37,840 --> 01:15:39,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, but AOC is not on the ticket. Is the

1507
01:15:40,000 --> 01:15:40,840
Speaker 3: thing that ques just.

1508
01:15:40,880 --> 01:15:43,680
Speaker 12: Thing We could have the same political conversation.

1509
01:15:44,200 --> 01:15:48,320
Speaker 3: But we've got votes for cows there to solve the problem.

1510
01:15:49,120 --> 01:15:51,760
Speaker 12: No, but okay, but the principle on the Democratic side

1511
01:15:51,800 --> 01:15:54,760
Speaker 12: is pulling very very poorly with men, and we might

1512
01:15:54,840 --> 01:15:56,840
Speaker 12: we could have the same conversation about why that might

1513
01:15:56,880 --> 01:15:59,120
Speaker 12: be or why some of her rhetoric might be alienating

1514
01:15:59,160 --> 01:16:00,120
Speaker 12: to men.

1515
01:16:00,320 --> 01:16:02,280
Speaker 3: So it would be you would.

1516
01:16:02,080 --> 01:16:06,000
Speaker 1: Be hard pressed to find, you know, a mainstream Democrat

1517
01:16:06,080 --> 01:16:10,599
Speaker 1: or certainly the Kamala or Joe Biden or the gents

1518
01:16:10,640 --> 01:16:13,040
Speaker 1: that are being considered for the ticket who have said

1519
01:16:13,040 --> 01:16:18,160
Speaker 1: things that are so intentionally offensive and the things that

1520
01:16:18,160 --> 01:16:20,760
Speaker 1: you're saying, and as I think, like, for example, I'm

1521
01:16:20,760 --> 01:16:24,040
Speaker 1: in favor of family you know, pro family policy. I'm

1522
01:16:24,040 --> 01:16:26,799
Speaker 1: in favor of a child text credit, I'm in favor

1523
01:16:26,840 --> 01:16:30,240
Speaker 1: of affordable childcare. I'm in favor of making it easier

1524
01:16:30,240 --> 01:16:31,880
Speaker 1: for people who want to have families to be able

1525
01:16:31,880 --> 01:16:35,080
Speaker 1: to have families. So the difference is, and Rachel, I'll

1526
01:16:35,120 --> 01:16:38,360
Speaker 1: get you in on this, how you talk about those things.

1527
01:16:38,400 --> 01:16:41,240
Speaker 1: And Matt Brunick actually made an interesting point. I think

1528
01:16:41,280 --> 01:16:42,920
Speaker 1: part of the problem for Jade Vance and how he

1529
01:16:43,000 --> 01:16:46,000
Speaker 1: messages in particular, which is very different from how Trump

1530
01:16:46,040 --> 01:16:48,720
Speaker 1: messages and Trump's clean up of this, he was like,

1531
01:16:48,920 --> 01:16:51,559
Speaker 1: he just likes families. He just likes families, not against anyone,

1532
01:16:51,600 --> 01:16:55,519
Speaker 1: He just likes families. But jd Vance did come up

1533
01:16:55,560 --> 01:17:00,880
Speaker 1: through these very like ideological and often online spaces, and

1534
01:17:00,920 --> 01:17:03,599
Speaker 1: the wards don't really come in those spaces. From saying

1535
01:17:03,680 --> 01:17:06,479
Speaker 1: things that are broadly appealing, like for example, child tax

1536
01:17:06,520 --> 01:17:09,120
Speaker 1: credit has seventy percent support, they come and I know

1537
01:17:09,200 --> 01:17:11,120
Speaker 1: this because this happens on the left too, from saying

1538
01:17:11,120 --> 01:17:15,439
Speaker 1: the things that are like, feel edgy, feel subversive, and

1539
01:17:15,520 --> 01:17:18,440
Speaker 1: so when you take those comments out of that context

1540
01:17:18,800 --> 01:17:21,400
Speaker 1: and you blast them out to a general election audience,

1541
01:17:21,880 --> 01:17:24,439
Speaker 1: suddenly you have a political messaging problem.

1542
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:25,679
Speaker 3: Matt Brunning made this point.

1543
01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:27,679
Speaker 1: I'd love to get your response to this, Rachel, because

1544
01:17:27,680 --> 01:17:29,479
Speaker 1: you're deeply plugged in like in the you know, the

1545
01:17:29,520 --> 01:17:32,519
Speaker 1: New Right space problem. Jdvance has the same one, or

1546
01:17:32,520 --> 01:17:34,720
Speaker 1: in casts and similar have. They want to break with

1547
01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:38,000
Speaker 1: GOP economic orthodoxy, but not in a way that is

1548
01:17:38,040 --> 01:17:41,120
Speaker 1: so palatable that the Dems are cool with it, which

1549
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:44,599
Speaker 1: requires either making the policy actually suck or framing it

1550
01:17:44,640 --> 01:17:47,320
Speaker 1: in some way that piques the Libs. And that's kind

1551
01:17:47,320 --> 01:17:49,040
Speaker 1: of what I get off of his comments is Like

1552
01:17:49,400 --> 01:17:50,760
Speaker 1: if he just goes out there and he's like, hey,

1553
01:17:50,800 --> 01:17:53,440
Speaker 1: we should have a child tax credit, well that's not exciting,

1554
01:17:53,600 --> 01:17:56,799
Speaker 1: that's not edgy. But if you say, like, ah, screw

1555
01:17:56,880 --> 01:17:59,599
Speaker 1: these childless sociopaths and these.

1556
01:17:59,439 --> 01:18:01,840
Speaker 3: Deranged ladies who are destroying.

1557
01:18:01,360 --> 01:18:03,240
Speaker 1: The country and must be stopped at all cost, Like,

1558
01:18:03,680 --> 01:18:06,280
Speaker 1: then you get online tracks, you become a thing. So

1559
01:18:06,800 --> 01:18:08,439
Speaker 1: you know, what do you make up as comments and

1560
01:18:08,479 --> 01:18:10,000
Speaker 1: what do you make up that analysis?

1561
01:18:10,920 --> 01:18:13,960
Speaker 8: Well, I actually think it breaks down into two categories, right,

1562
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:17,240
Speaker 8: I think the family formation policy and how we talk

1563
01:18:17,240 --> 01:18:21,120
Speaker 8: about our politics being run by you know, white liberal

1564
01:18:21,120 --> 01:18:24,600
Speaker 8: women without kids are two separate things. And I think,

1565
01:18:24,760 --> 01:18:28,559
Speaker 8: you know, he to get to an ass point about

1566
01:18:28,600 --> 01:18:32,800
Speaker 8: the latter point, heat is correct, Like there was a

1567
01:18:32,800 --> 01:18:35,120
Speaker 8: pupil a couple of days ago that came out showing

1568
01:18:35,160 --> 01:18:38,679
Speaker 8: that I think among Gen Z, among young millennials, people

1569
01:18:38,760 --> 01:18:41,760
Speaker 8: aren't having kids in greater numbers and the reason is

1570
01:18:41,760 --> 01:18:45,120
Speaker 8: that they just don't want them. Now. To pretend that's

1571
01:18:45,120 --> 01:18:47,680
Speaker 8: not going to change our politics, to pretend that's not

1572
01:18:47,680 --> 01:18:51,800
Speaker 8: going to change how our social culture is built, is ridiculous. Right,

1573
01:18:51,840 --> 01:18:53,960
Speaker 8: we have to be able to talk about that, you know,

1574
01:18:53,960 --> 01:18:57,160
Speaker 8: And I think that the white women for Harris that

1575
01:18:57,200 --> 01:18:59,360
Speaker 8: the woman who led that has kind of gone viral

1576
01:18:59,680 --> 01:19:02,679
Speaker 8: as a case in point of kind of what JD.

1577
01:19:02,800 --> 01:19:06,719
Speaker 8: Evans is talking about, which is this sort of HR culture,

1578
01:19:06,760 --> 01:19:09,360
Speaker 8: whether you have kids or not. Right, this HR culture

1579
01:19:09,400 --> 01:19:13,320
Speaker 8: that's built toward policing conformity. Helen Andrews at The American

1580
01:19:13,320 --> 01:19:16,080
Speaker 8: Conservative talks a lot about how women in groups act

1581
01:19:16,080 --> 01:19:18,360
Speaker 8: about this. Right, They're different than men. Men will go

1582
01:19:18,439 --> 01:19:21,680
Speaker 8: out and create conflict around things. Women police conformity in

1583
01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:25,080
Speaker 8: very sort of passive aggressive ways. That is reflected in

1584
01:19:25,120 --> 01:19:26,960
Speaker 8: our politics, and I think that's kind of what he's

1585
01:19:26,960 --> 01:19:30,280
Speaker 8: talking about. Do you want people making policy in that

1586
01:19:30,400 --> 01:19:33,080
Speaker 8: vein which is totally different in many ways of how

1587
01:19:33,160 --> 01:19:36,160
Speaker 8: people with kids view the world. You know, people with

1588
01:19:36,240 --> 01:19:39,000
Speaker 8: kids tend to have a stake, more of a thought

1589
01:19:39,040 --> 01:19:40,960
Speaker 8: and a stake toward the future. They tend to have

1590
01:19:40,960 --> 01:19:43,400
Speaker 8: a little bit of a different perspective because they've got,

1591
01:19:43,479 --> 01:19:46,320
Speaker 8: you know, financial concerns that are completely different than people

1592
01:19:46,320 --> 01:19:49,080
Speaker 8: without kids. Now, going to the second point about family

1593
01:19:49,120 --> 01:19:53,040
Speaker 8: formation policy, Yes, the way you talk about that, I

1594
01:19:53,040 --> 01:19:55,479
Speaker 8: think is a challenge. And Ross Stout that had an

1595
01:19:55,479 --> 01:19:58,800
Speaker 8: interesting Twitter thread about this the other day. The Pro natalism.

1596
01:19:58,880 --> 01:20:01,800
Speaker 8: Space is inherently weird in itself, right, being able to

1597
01:20:01,840 --> 01:20:05,439
Speaker 8: talk about it in a way that's that you're talking

1598
01:20:05,439 --> 01:20:08,960
Speaker 8: about something very personal and very you know, people have

1599
01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:11,840
Speaker 8: unique views on it. It's a difficult thing to talk

1600
01:20:11,880 --> 01:20:15,280
Speaker 8: about generally, and so it can come off as weird.

1601
01:20:15,280 --> 01:20:17,880
Speaker 8: And I think you know, someone like JD Vance, who's

1602
01:20:17,960 --> 01:20:20,080
Speaker 8: an elder millennial who has grown up in a lot

1603
01:20:20,120 --> 01:20:22,320
Speaker 8: of you know, who came of Asia, I think in

1604
01:20:22,400 --> 01:20:27,680
Speaker 8: a lot of blue space. Yeah, right, saying things that

1605
01:20:27,800 --> 01:20:31,400
Speaker 8: are you know, edgy and come off as subversive. To

1606
01:20:31,439 --> 01:20:33,519
Speaker 8: your point, that's you know, if you grow up in

1607
01:20:33,960 --> 01:20:35,880
Speaker 8: if you come a vasional blue area, that's how you

1608
01:20:35,920 --> 01:20:38,160
Speaker 8: tend to talk about it. It's a very online way

1609
01:20:38,160 --> 01:20:40,360
Speaker 8: of speaking. He's going to have to change how he

1610
01:20:40,400 --> 01:20:43,000
Speaker 8: does that because I think that doesn't fly, you know,

1611
01:20:43,120 --> 01:20:47,720
Speaker 8: outside of these very niche Twitter spaces. So he's the

1612
01:20:48,040 --> 01:20:50,320
Speaker 8: foundational truth he's talking about I think is correct. But

1613
01:20:50,680 --> 01:20:52,519
Speaker 8: to your point, he's got a messaging problem that he's

1614
01:20:52,520 --> 01:20:53,000
Speaker 8: got to fix.

1615
01:20:53,320 --> 01:20:56,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's got it's got basket of deplorable vibes where

1616
01:20:56,280 --> 01:21:00,280
Speaker 1: it's like, you know, train all this is my personal train,

1617
01:21:00,320 --> 01:21:02,800
Speaker 1: all of the fire you want at the people who

1618
01:21:02,800 --> 01:21:07,439
Speaker 1: are setting policy at you know, the financial like media. Yes,

1619
01:21:08,040 --> 01:21:10,920
Speaker 1: but his comments were not just about Kamala Harris, which

1620
01:21:10,920 --> 01:21:12,920
Speaker 1: by the wa Kamala Haris is a stepmother, which you know,

1621
01:21:13,080 --> 01:21:15,280
Speaker 1: for a lot of people that are looking at and going, wait,

1622
01:21:15,280 --> 01:21:17,760
Speaker 1: you don't count stepmoms, you don't count step dads who

1623
01:21:17,800 --> 01:21:19,960
Speaker 1: are you know, raising kids and doing the work as well.

1624
01:21:20,400 --> 01:21:23,519
Speaker 1: But in addition, it was a broad brush and so

1625
01:21:23,560 --> 01:21:28,000
Speaker 1: there were many people who felt themselves condemned to you know,

1626
01:21:28,080 --> 01:21:32,880
Speaker 1: this characterization as being less mentally stable, most deranged, most psychotic,

1627
01:21:33,040 --> 01:21:36,000
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. And so that's to me what

1628
01:21:36,040 --> 01:21:38,760
Speaker 1: it has echoes of is the minute that you show

1629
01:21:38,880 --> 01:21:45,080
Speaker 1: contempt and judgment for like a broad swath of the country,

1630
01:21:45,160 --> 01:21:47,920
Speaker 1: you're going to lose, both in terms of electorally but

1631
01:21:47,960 --> 01:21:50,519
Speaker 1: also in terms of whatever it is that you're selling.

1632
01:21:50,560 --> 01:21:52,800
Speaker 1: And I don't actually think it is hard to talk

1633
01:21:52,800 --> 01:21:54,680
Speaker 1: about it. At least some family policy like it's a tile

1634
01:21:54,760 --> 01:21:57,439
Speaker 1: tax card is like seventy percent support is very popular.

1635
01:21:57,520 --> 01:21:59,880
Speaker 1: Things like affordable childcare, and I know we've their debates

1636
01:22:00,000 --> 01:22:01,760
Speaker 1: about within the right. He wasn't a big fan of

1637
01:22:02,080 --> 01:22:04,840
Speaker 1: the idea focusing on childcare. But the idea of making

1638
01:22:04,840 --> 01:22:07,800
Speaker 1: it easier for moms to be able to raise kids,

1639
01:22:07,840 --> 01:22:11,200
Speaker 1: for parents to be able to have families. I think

1640
01:22:11,200 --> 01:22:13,760
Speaker 1: those are broadly accepted and very popular.

1641
01:22:14,120 --> 01:22:16,479
Speaker 3: It's only when you go out of your way to.

1642
01:22:16,400 --> 01:22:19,280
Speaker 1: Frame it in this like aggressive, negative way that it

1643
01:22:19,320 --> 01:22:21,960
Speaker 1: becomes unpopular. And for me, it's a problem because I

1644
01:22:21,960 --> 01:22:25,200
Speaker 1: actually want those instincts and the right to be cultivated

1645
01:22:25,240 --> 01:22:28,720
Speaker 1: and be successful. So I'm cheering for the messaging on

1646
01:22:28,800 --> 01:22:31,639
Speaker 1: the right to be better and more appealing on those

1647
01:22:31,680 --> 01:22:34,320
Speaker 1: areas where you know there is some genuine overlap that's

1648
01:22:34,320 --> 01:22:35,200
Speaker 1: starting to develop.

1649
01:22:35,760 --> 01:22:38,240
Speaker 5: Well, this will likely be a lesson in that.

1650
01:22:38,320 --> 01:22:39,960
Speaker 4: Here, let me roll and as I get you to

1651
01:22:40,040 --> 01:22:42,120
Speaker 4: respond to this clip that we're going to roll.

1652
01:22:42,160 --> 01:22:43,440
Speaker 5: This is a Fox News.

1653
01:22:43,160 --> 01:22:48,320
Speaker 4: Compilation of people being called or of i should say,

1654
01:22:48,400 --> 01:22:55,439
Speaker 4: of people calling like Kamala Harris calling Republicans Trump vance weird.

1655
01:22:55,640 --> 01:22:56,600
Speaker 5: Let's go ahead and roll this.

1656
01:22:56,880 --> 01:22:58,120
Speaker 8: Well, it's just plain weird.

1657
01:23:01,760 --> 01:23:07,519
Speaker 9: I mean, it's not just a weird style that he brings.

1658
01:23:07,920 --> 01:23:11,200
Speaker 9: It's that this leads to weird policies that that is

1659
01:23:11,280 --> 01:23:12,480
Speaker 9: weird behavior.

1660
01:23:12,160 --> 01:23:14,880
Speaker 6: More extreme, more weird, more erratic.

1661
01:23:14,960 --> 01:23:17,200
Speaker 8: I mean, on the other side, they're just weird, the

1662
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:19,240
Speaker 8: thirty two ounces of weird Donald.

1663
01:23:18,960 --> 01:23:20,400
Speaker 5: Trump and his weirdo running mate.

1664
01:23:20,520 --> 01:23:24,080
Speaker 8: And by the way, they are weird. It is bizarre,

1665
01:23:24,240 --> 01:23:28,479
Speaker 8: it's weird, it is weird. Jd Vance, just dumb Vance

1666
01:23:28,800 --> 01:23:29,920
Speaker 8: is pretty weird.

1667
01:23:30,360 --> 01:23:32,320
Speaker 4: So I actually want to agree with Crystal. That's I

1668
01:23:32,600 --> 01:23:35,040
Speaker 4: think it's very, very powerful, which is why you saw

1669
01:23:35,080 --> 01:23:38,000
Speaker 4: this sudden rush of it, and why you actually saw

1670
01:23:38,080 --> 01:23:42,080
Speaker 4: Republicans like Terry for example, at the RNC using something similar.

1671
01:23:42,400 --> 01:23:45,040
Speaker 5: Here is F four. This is a tear sheet. This

1672
01:23:45,080 --> 01:23:46,000
Speaker 5: is from the Hill.

1673
01:23:46,560 --> 01:23:50,559
Speaker 4: Some House Republicans are slamming Trump's VP pick quote the

1674
01:23:50,560 --> 01:23:53,640
Speaker 4: worst choice. I've heard that from sources. I'm sure everyone's

1675
01:23:53,680 --> 01:23:57,280
Speaker 4: heard that now. So I'll just with all of that said,

1676
01:23:57,640 --> 01:24:00,719
Speaker 4: toss it to you and as jd Vance a bad

1677
01:24:00,760 --> 01:24:03,559
Speaker 4: pick or not, if you could, if you were a

1678
01:24:03,560 --> 01:24:05,960
Speaker 4: Trump campaign advisor and you could wave a magic wand

1679
01:24:06,200 --> 01:24:09,439
Speaker 4: and replace him with someone else, is that the right move?

1680
01:24:10,439 --> 01:24:11,960
Speaker 12: First of all, I told you nobody in the right

1681
01:24:12,000 --> 01:24:16,000
Speaker 12: mind would give me that magic wand. But to answer

1682
01:24:16,080 --> 01:24:19,439
Speaker 12: the question anyway, absolutely not. Would I think he was, if.

1683
01:24:19,280 --> 01:24:21,880
Speaker 3: Not the best among the choices, among the best of

1684
01:24:21,920 --> 01:24:24,080
Speaker 3: the choices. Part of that is what I said in

1685
01:24:24,120 --> 01:24:24,920
Speaker 3: the first part of the.

1686
01:24:24,840 --> 01:24:28,599
Speaker 12: Segment that I don't really think that VP picks make

1687
01:24:28,680 --> 01:24:32,280
Speaker 12: that much difference seleatorially either way. And I think actually

1688
01:24:32,280 --> 01:24:37,200
Speaker 12: what Trump needs is a contiguliary, a competent right contingulary

1689
01:24:37,240 --> 01:24:40,040
Speaker 12: who's actually going to run policy through the executive branch

1690
01:24:40,080 --> 01:24:42,920
Speaker 12: and who's aligned with his vision which is very different

1691
01:24:42,960 --> 01:24:45,439
Speaker 12: than the establishment of the Republican Party. And that's what

1692
01:24:45,479 --> 01:24:47,160
Speaker 12: I think a lot of this is by the way

1693
01:24:47,240 --> 01:24:50,960
Speaker 12: the Republicans sniping at jd Vance as opposed to Democrats

1694
01:24:50,960 --> 01:24:54,040
Speaker 12: trying out messaging which were in an election that makes sense,

1695
01:24:54,840 --> 01:24:57,639
Speaker 12: is just that jd Vance has some ideas that are

1696
01:24:58,000 --> 01:25:01,479
Speaker 12: very very different to both domestic and on foreign policy

1697
01:25:01,520 --> 01:25:02,720
Speaker 12: than the party establishment.

1698
01:25:03,800 --> 01:25:05,479
Speaker 3: And I think that's where a lot of this comes from.

1699
01:25:05,560 --> 01:25:09,280
Speaker 12: In terms of whether or not weird Lands, I think

1700
01:25:09,320 --> 01:25:12,120
Speaker 12: it maybe did initially, and I think there is a

1701
01:25:12,200 --> 01:25:14,960
Speaker 12: large element of return to normalcy. I think Biden was

1702
01:25:15,080 --> 01:25:17,200
Speaker 12: very much able to tap into that in twenty twenty.

1703
01:25:17,520 --> 01:25:20,000
Speaker 12: I think it's much harder after the last three and

1704
01:25:20,040 --> 01:25:22,760
Speaker 12: a half years to tap into that adult in the room,

1705
01:25:23,280 --> 01:25:27,479
Speaker 12: you know, sort of return to normalcy energy for the

1706
01:25:27,479 --> 01:25:28,400
Speaker 12: Democratic Party.

1707
01:25:28,439 --> 01:25:30,400
Speaker 3: There is a record that the last three and a

1708
01:25:30,400 --> 01:25:31,120
Speaker 3: half years have not.

1709
01:25:31,439 --> 01:25:33,519
Speaker 12: If anything can be said about the last three and

1710
01:25:33,520 --> 01:25:37,519
Speaker 12: a half years, it's not that they've been normal. So

1711
01:25:37,800 --> 01:25:40,040
Speaker 12: I think it's it's difficult, but I think that messaging

1712
01:25:40,160 --> 01:25:43,760
Speaker 12: generally is quite potent. I think this is way overused,

1713
01:25:43,760 --> 01:25:46,519
Speaker 12: and I think it's going to end up either burning

1714
01:25:46,560 --> 01:25:50,559
Speaker 12: itself out or being very easy to just throw back

1715
01:25:50,640 --> 01:25:54,040
Speaker 12: in Democratic Democrats' faces by pointing to a lot of

1716
01:25:54,040 --> 01:25:57,720
Speaker 12: weird examples on the left and then finally just one

1717
01:25:57,760 --> 01:26:01,280
Speaker 12: sentence of what we were talking about before. In terms

1718
01:26:01,320 --> 01:26:03,240
Speaker 12: of like how to talk about these issues, I agree

1719
01:26:03,280 --> 01:26:05,479
Speaker 12: completely with what Rachel said. I thought rosst Out that

1720
01:26:05,560 --> 01:26:07,360
Speaker 12: the same rost Out that tweet that she's pointing to,

1721
01:26:07,439 --> 01:26:09,440
Speaker 12: I thought was also interesting.

1722
01:26:09,640 --> 01:26:11,439
Speaker 3: These are personal issues, so it's.

1723
01:26:11,400 --> 01:26:14,320
Speaker 12: Very difficult to talk about them without, you know, causing offense,

1724
01:26:14,400 --> 01:26:17,680
Speaker 12: even if you're very careful, which JD was not particularly

1725
01:26:17,720 --> 01:26:21,519
Speaker 12: careful in his phrasing. I also think there is an

1726
01:26:21,520 --> 01:26:24,840
Speaker 12: element in all of this of allowing ourselves to be

1727
01:26:24,920 --> 01:26:27,840
Speaker 12: ruled by the tyranny of but I'm an exception, right,

1728
01:26:28,040 --> 01:26:31,120
Speaker 12: we can talk about general trends in society in such

1729
01:26:31,160 --> 01:26:34,559
Speaker 12: a way that, like oftentimes, and this is not just

1730
01:26:34,600 --> 01:26:36,960
Speaker 12: on this subject. You talk about any kind of general

1731
01:26:37,040 --> 01:26:40,840
Speaker 12: trend in politics or in culture, and the first ten replies,

1732
01:26:41,200 --> 01:26:44,400
Speaker 12: whether online or frankly in person, A lot of times

1733
01:26:44,439 --> 01:26:46,800
Speaker 12: are but that doesn't apply to me. Well, if it

1734
01:26:46,840 --> 01:26:50,040
Speaker 12: doesn't apply to you, then perhaps, like we can still

1735
01:26:50,040 --> 01:26:52,920
Speaker 12: discuss the rule as opposed to the exception. And actually,

1736
01:26:52,920 --> 01:26:55,439
Speaker 12: I think this replies to so much of our discourse.

1737
01:26:55,680 --> 01:27:00,400
Speaker 12: We are constantly tiptoeing around the exception and therefore not

1738
01:27:00,520 --> 01:27:02,920
Speaker 12: discussing the rule, which I think is a deficit, not

1739
01:27:03,000 --> 01:27:07,360
Speaker 12: just in this conversation about how this major change in

1740
01:27:07,600 --> 01:27:10,480
Speaker 12: whether or not we replicate ourselves will affect our politics

1741
01:27:10,479 --> 01:27:14,519
Speaker 12: and civilization, but on so many issues where I guess

1742
01:27:14,520 --> 01:27:17,120
Speaker 12: I'm just tired of the like the chirp coming up

1743
01:27:17,160 --> 01:27:17,760
Speaker 12: every single time.

1744
01:27:17,800 --> 01:27:21,640
Speaker 3: Well, but but there's exceptions, right, That's obviously They're not

1745
01:27:21,680 --> 01:27:24,080
Speaker 3: a statement you can make that won't have exceptions.

1746
01:27:24,360 --> 01:27:26,840
Speaker 5: This is exactly why you're not a consultant, Rachel.

1747
01:27:26,920 --> 01:27:29,360
Speaker 1: Two quick thoughts for you for you to respond to.

1748
01:27:29,960 --> 01:27:31,880
Speaker 1: First of all, with regard to weird, I have to

1749
01:27:31,920 --> 01:27:33,800
Speaker 1: tell you I was asking myself last time. I was like,

1750
01:27:33,880 --> 01:27:36,040
Speaker 1: is this getting overused? But then I have to remind

1751
01:27:36,040 --> 01:27:39,599
Speaker 1: myself that we are weird like normal people out there.

1752
01:27:40,280 --> 01:27:44,040
Speaker 1: In politics, the rule is you repeat the shit out

1753
01:27:44,040 --> 01:27:45,519
Speaker 1: of whatever it is, you hammer it.

1754
01:27:45,560 --> 01:27:47,200
Speaker 3: And Trump is amazing at this right.

1755
01:27:47,280 --> 01:27:51,040
Speaker 1: No one understands branding and repetition better than that man,

1756
01:27:51,360 --> 01:27:55,320
Speaker 1: Crooked Hillary, low energy, Jeb Lil Marco. We can still

1757
01:27:55,360 --> 01:27:57,400
Speaker 1: say it to this day. And it wasn't because he

1758
01:27:57,479 --> 01:28:00,360
Speaker 1: used it once. It's because he routine over and over

1759
01:28:00,439 --> 01:28:02,599
Speaker 1: and over again, so that it's the first thing you

1760
01:28:02,640 --> 01:28:06,240
Speaker 1: associate with in your head. With regard to Jadvance, my

1761
01:28:06,360 --> 01:28:10,040
Speaker 1: just very quick, you know case for why he is

1762
01:28:10,240 --> 01:28:12,000
Speaker 1: a problem for the ticket at this point is because

1763
01:28:12,040 --> 01:28:14,920
Speaker 1: the two areas where the Trump campaign clearly feels vulnerability

1764
01:28:15,120 --> 01:28:16,120
Speaker 1: are abortion.

1765
01:28:15,920 --> 01:28:17,200
Speaker 3: And Project twenty twenty five.

1766
01:28:17,600 --> 01:28:19,479
Speaker 1: Jadi Vance has said a lot of things that Trump

1767
01:28:19,479 --> 01:28:24,679
Speaker 1: does not embrace on abortion, and he has authored a forward,

1768
01:28:25,040 --> 01:28:28,080
Speaker 1: authored a foreword for the Project twenty twenty five guy,

1769
01:28:28,320 --> 01:28:31,600
Speaker 1: and you know is clearly aligned with the kind of

1770
01:28:31,640 --> 01:28:32,480
Speaker 1: like beating.

1771
01:28:32,200 --> 01:28:33,519
Speaker 3: Heart of all of that.

1772
01:28:33,760 --> 01:28:36,360
Speaker 1: So on the two areas where Trump feels himself to

1773
01:28:36,439 --> 01:28:40,240
Speaker 1: be the most vulnerable, Jade Vance brings additional baggage that

1774
01:28:40,320 --> 01:28:42,120
Speaker 1: he has to deal with and has to defend to

1775
01:28:42,160 --> 01:28:43,599
Speaker 1: the ticket.

1776
01:28:45,080 --> 01:28:47,880
Speaker 8: So I think, you know, i'd go back to something

1777
01:28:47,920 --> 01:28:50,120
Speaker 8: and has says, which is well to at first, I

1778
01:28:50,120 --> 01:28:51,680
Speaker 8: think to the point you made, yes, I think if

1779
01:28:51,720 --> 01:28:53,760
Speaker 8: you're repeating something to the point where you think you're

1780
01:28:53,760 --> 01:28:56,320
Speaker 8: saying it too much, you're probably just breaking through. And

1781
01:28:56,360 --> 01:28:59,160
Speaker 8: I think that's a maximum of political campaigns that Donald Trump,

1782
01:28:59,160 --> 01:29:00,960
Speaker 8: to your point, has been very good that. But I

1783
01:29:01,000 --> 01:29:04,680
Speaker 8: think on the on the second issue, I really it

1784
01:29:04,680 --> 01:29:07,360
Speaker 8: goes back to this idea that whether or not jd

1785
01:29:07,520 --> 01:29:11,760
Speaker 8: Vance characterized it correctly, he is correct when he says that,

1786
01:29:12,160 --> 01:29:15,559
Speaker 8: you know, we are the divide between parties are people

1787
01:29:15,560 --> 01:29:19,040
Speaker 8: that want to actively control every aspect of how you

1788
01:29:19,080 --> 01:29:21,120
Speaker 8: raise your family, what you do, how you know, how

1789
01:29:21,160 --> 01:29:24,599
Speaker 8: you talk, and everybody else. And I think his sort

1790
01:29:24,600 --> 01:29:26,920
Speaker 8: of childless cat lady comments are a proxy for that

1791
01:29:27,120 --> 01:29:30,120
Speaker 8: impulse in the Democratic Party. And I think the Democrat

1792
01:29:30,160 --> 01:29:33,519
Speaker 8: Party can continue to say, oh, you know, jd Vance

1793
01:29:33,600 --> 01:29:36,120
Speaker 8: is the weird one, but there's going to be example

1794
01:29:36,160 --> 01:29:40,080
Speaker 8: after example after example on the left, particularly culturally, where

1795
01:29:40,200 --> 01:29:43,519
Speaker 8: they're going to pop up examples of crazy far left

1796
01:29:43,520 --> 01:29:45,200
Speaker 8: culture and say, oh, these are the people that want

1797
01:29:45,240 --> 01:29:48,559
Speaker 8: to tell you that, you know, jd Vance is weird

1798
01:29:49,040 --> 01:29:51,880
Speaker 8: and I think that divide is going to continue to

1799
01:29:51,960 --> 01:29:55,800
Speaker 8: present itself because again, what he's saying, you can say

1800
01:29:55,840 --> 01:29:57,479
Speaker 8: it was artless, you can say it was classless. But

1801
01:29:57,520 --> 01:30:01,160
Speaker 8: it's a proxy for this impulse on the to you know,

1802
01:30:01,240 --> 01:30:04,360
Speaker 8: control your speech, to control who you know, what you

1803
01:30:04,400 --> 01:30:06,720
Speaker 8: say at work, to control your you know, how you

1804
01:30:06,760 --> 01:30:08,840
Speaker 8: talk about your religious faith. These are things I do

1805
01:30:08,880 --> 01:30:09,719
Speaker 8: think will resonate.

1806
01:30:09,800 --> 01:30:12,679
Speaker 1: So but right now, if I could, just, if I could,

1807
01:30:12,760 --> 01:30:17,280
Speaker 1: just when you're judging people for when and how and

1808
01:30:17,360 --> 01:30:20,160
Speaker 1: whether they have kids, This is exactly why I think

1809
01:30:20,160 --> 01:30:22,720
Speaker 1: this framing is a problem for Republicans, because you're right

1810
01:30:23,120 --> 01:30:26,479
Speaker 1: when it's Democrats who feel like they're policing how you live,

1811
01:30:26,560 --> 01:30:28,439
Speaker 1: what you can say, all of those.

1812
01:30:28,280 --> 01:30:29,040
Speaker 3: Sorts of things.

1813
01:30:29,360 --> 01:30:32,920
Speaker 1: That's Americans have this knee jerk reaction against it. And

1814
01:30:33,000 --> 01:30:35,000
Speaker 1: I think that's why these comments are problem because they

1815
01:30:35,080 --> 01:30:38,559
Speaker 1: reflect a similar tendency on the right of there is

1816
01:30:38,640 --> 01:30:41,200
Speaker 1: one way for you to go about your life. We're

1817
01:30:41,240 --> 01:30:44,040
Speaker 1: going to judge you for it. Here's the program, and

1818
01:30:44,240 --> 01:30:47,880
Speaker 1: if you don't fit into our model, then you're a childless, sociopath,

1819
01:30:47,960 --> 01:30:50,360
Speaker 1: less mentally stable, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So

1820
01:30:50,520 --> 01:30:55,440
Speaker 1: that's what you're identifying, that instinct against that like controlling, judgmental,

1821
01:30:55,640 --> 01:30:59,880
Speaker 1: like nanny state, cancel culture, whatever type of behavior that

1822
01:31:00,040 --> 01:31:03,080
Speaker 1: has come at times from Democrats. That's what comes across

1823
01:31:03,120 --> 01:31:06,280
Speaker 1: in these comments is I'm going to police you, your life,

1824
01:31:06,360 --> 01:31:08,080
Speaker 1: your bedroom, your choices, etc.

1825
01:31:10,120 --> 01:31:10,360
Speaker 6: Yeah.

1826
01:31:10,400 --> 01:31:14,360
Speaker 8: I think he, in my interpretation of it, having lived

1827
01:31:14,360 --> 01:31:19,200
Speaker 8: in these circles, is that it's an efficient proxy way

1828
01:31:19,240 --> 01:31:22,599
Speaker 8: for him to talk about that widened aperture, right that

1829
01:31:22,600 --> 01:31:25,000
Speaker 8: you're that we're both speaking about. So I do think

1830
01:31:25,040 --> 01:31:28,080
Speaker 8: he has to contextualize the way he talks about it,

1831
01:31:28,160 --> 01:31:32,719
Speaker 8: because they're hanging him on a throwaway way of speaking

1832
01:31:32,760 --> 01:31:35,080
Speaker 8: about these things. I do think he has to widen

1833
01:31:35,120 --> 01:31:37,360
Speaker 8: that and contextualize how he talks about it if he's

1834
01:31:37,439 --> 01:31:40,280
Speaker 8: going to break through the caricature that they're trying to

1835
01:31:40,280 --> 01:31:44,240
Speaker 8: paint of him on the left. Because I do think whenever,

1836
01:31:44,320 --> 01:31:46,080
Speaker 8: to the point that you made earlier, whenever you speak

1837
01:31:46,080 --> 01:31:50,160
Speaker 8: about someone with contempt, it's dangerous, especially on the national ticket.

1838
01:31:50,200 --> 01:31:52,639
Speaker 8: And I think unless he's capable of and I think

1839
01:31:52,640 --> 01:31:56,240
Speaker 8: he is, of explaining this impulse on the left that

1840
01:31:56,240 --> 01:32:00,880
Speaker 8: he's fighting against, it's going to be an issue.

1841
01:32:01,640 --> 01:32:03,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's go ahead and move on to another

1842
01:32:04,040 --> 01:32:07,200
Speaker 1: totally not fraud and difficult conversation about abortion.

1843
01:32:08,760 --> 01:32:09,320
Speaker 3: But really the.

1844
01:32:09,280 --> 01:32:11,479
Speaker 4: Best example of what we've been talking about, Crystal, in

1845
01:32:11,680 --> 01:32:14,479
Speaker 4: this entire conversation about you know, this is one of

1846
01:32:14,520 --> 01:32:18,320
Speaker 4: the best examples of where this is potentially a vulnerability

1847
01:32:18,320 --> 01:32:22,879
Speaker 4: for Republicans and potentially especially for the Trump Vance situation.

1848
01:32:23,720 --> 01:32:23,920
Speaker 5: Right.

1849
01:32:24,000 --> 01:32:26,200
Speaker 1: So Vance in particular, I mean you voted against the

1850
01:32:26,479 --> 01:32:28,760
Speaker 1: IVF bill that went through the Senate. You know, he

1851
01:32:29,280 --> 01:32:34,040
Speaker 1: was spoken in favor of some sort of national whether

1852
01:32:34,080 --> 01:32:37,760
Speaker 1: it's an abortion ban or quote unquote federal response to

1853
01:32:37,800 --> 01:32:41,400
Speaker 1: deal with abortion tourism. He's been out there on the

1854
01:32:41,439 --> 01:32:43,640
Speaker 1: issue in a way that is uncomfortable for Trump and

1855
01:32:43,680 --> 01:32:46,200
Speaker 1: not where Trump wants to position himself. We already know

1856
01:32:46,280 --> 01:32:48,679
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to make this a key issue because

1857
01:32:48,680 --> 01:32:51,559
Speaker 1: it's been successful for them in the post Row environment,

1858
01:32:51,640 --> 01:32:53,120
Speaker 1: in special elections, et cetera.

1859
01:32:53,240 --> 01:32:54,400
Speaker 3: Let's put this up on the screen.

1860
01:32:55,240 --> 01:32:58,400
Speaker 1: This is just a report about how Kamala Harris plans

1861
01:32:58,439 --> 01:33:02,040
Speaker 1: to lean into abortion. And I think it's fair to

1862
01:33:02,080 --> 01:33:04,400
Speaker 1: say is a much more credible and much more comfortable

1863
01:33:04,680 --> 01:33:07,720
Speaker 1: messenger on the issue who you know, as opposed to

1864
01:33:07,800 --> 01:33:11,400
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, who is himself personally Catholic and personally pro life,

1865
01:33:12,280 --> 01:33:14,960
Speaker 1: and I know you guys will probably object to that characterization,

1866
01:33:15,000 --> 01:33:16,920
Speaker 1: but that's how he would describe himself and has been

1867
01:33:16,960 --> 01:33:20,040
Speaker 1: on the side of pro life positions at times in

1868
01:33:20,080 --> 01:33:22,439
Speaker 1: his career. So he just he's not really all in

1869
01:33:22,479 --> 01:33:25,200
Speaker 1: on the issue, wasn't comfortable talking about it. I think

1870
01:33:25,240 --> 01:33:28,760
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris is genderous and asset here as well, just

1871
01:33:28,840 --> 01:33:31,960
Speaker 1: off the top, and as how do you think that

1872
01:33:32,040 --> 01:33:36,840
Speaker 1: this issue plays in the election, And also what do

1873
01:33:36,960 --> 01:33:40,880
Speaker 1: you make of the Trump campaign's clear moves to basically

1874
01:33:41,280 --> 01:33:43,920
Speaker 1: push abortion on the side, you know, take it out

1875
01:33:43,920 --> 01:33:47,680
Speaker 1: of the RNC platform, just say we're leaving it to

1876
01:33:47,720 --> 01:33:49,360
Speaker 1: the states and that's that we're not going to do

1877
01:33:49,400 --> 01:33:51,320
Speaker 1: anything at the federal level. Do you think that those

1878
01:33:51,400 --> 01:33:54,160
Speaker 1: efforts are are good and do you think that that

1879
01:33:54,200 --> 01:33:55,080
Speaker 1: will be successful?

1880
01:33:56,080 --> 01:33:59,000
Speaker 12: So, first of all, these are the problems of victory, right,

1881
01:33:59,120 --> 01:34:01,640
Speaker 12: because what happened when Dobbs came down is there was

1882
01:34:01,680 --> 01:34:07,160
Speaker 12: a very large and obvious separation between what Republican elected

1883
01:34:07,160 --> 01:34:11,439
Speaker 12: officials were telling their voters, their most enthusiastic voters and

1884
01:34:11,520 --> 01:34:14,960
Speaker 12: fundraising emails and what, first of all, what they were

1885
01:34:14,960 --> 01:34:16,960
Speaker 12: willing to do as a party. And second of all,

1886
01:34:17,200 --> 01:34:18,920
Speaker 12: there was a gap between what they were telling those

1887
01:34:18,960 --> 01:34:21,519
Speaker 12: voters and where the country ended up being on the issue.

1888
01:34:21,560 --> 01:34:25,160
Speaker 12: That's you know, more probably relevant than the first, but

1889
01:34:25,439 --> 01:34:28,479
Speaker 12: it split that open so before the Republican Party could

1890
01:34:28,560 --> 01:34:33,040
Speaker 12: comfortably use pro life rhetoric, you know, as you know,

1891
01:34:33,120 --> 01:34:35,439
Speaker 12: sort of all the way to the wall, as hard

1892
01:34:35,479 --> 01:34:38,080
Speaker 12: rhetoric as they wanted, because they had no power to

1893
01:34:38,080 --> 01:34:39,960
Speaker 12: do anything about the issue. And I do think this

1894
01:34:40,040 --> 01:34:41,840
Speaker 12: is like a and I know Rachel has many many

1895
01:34:41,880 --> 01:34:43,840
Speaker 12: examples of this in the Senate from her years in

1896
01:34:43,840 --> 01:34:46,240
Speaker 12: the Senate, right, but this is the classic sort of

1897
01:34:46,320 --> 01:34:49,920
Speaker 12: virtue signaling politics issue where you have politicians who were

1898
01:34:49,960 --> 01:34:54,280
Speaker 12: able to say things exactly because that like their bases

1899
01:34:54,439 --> 01:34:57,439
Speaker 12: liked exactly because they had no power and no intent

1900
01:34:57,479 --> 01:35:00,479
Speaker 12: of doing anything about it. And that's just very ear so.

1901
01:35:00,640 --> 01:35:02,439
Speaker 12: And I do think that applies to the second part

1902
01:35:02,439 --> 01:35:05,599
Speaker 12: of your question as well, which is how to deal

1903
01:35:05,640 --> 01:35:08,839
Speaker 12: with the fact that the Republican Party, the dominant position

1904
01:35:09,439 --> 01:35:12,360
Speaker 12: in the Republican Party base on this issue on abortion,

1905
01:35:13,040 --> 01:35:17,160
Speaker 12: is increasingly isolated in the country. It's a minority position, right,

1906
01:35:17,160 --> 01:35:20,519
Speaker 12: but it's very strongly and sincerely felt by the large

1907
01:35:20,520 --> 01:35:23,800
Speaker 12: part of the Republican base, right, so how to deal

1908
01:35:23,840 --> 01:35:26,240
Speaker 12: with that? And again, I'm not a you know, not

1909
01:35:26,400 --> 01:35:29,800
Speaker 12: good in answering these questions in terms of politics. I do, however,

1910
01:35:29,920 --> 01:35:32,839
Speaker 12: think that there is a certain insincerity that is always

1911
01:35:32,920 --> 01:35:36,960
Speaker 12: picked up when you just try to side step questions.

1912
01:35:37,000 --> 01:35:39,759
Speaker 3: And I would prefer to see Republicans.

1913
01:35:39,040 --> 01:35:42,120
Speaker 12: In general take this on in an honest and sincere

1914
01:35:42,160 --> 01:35:44,599
Speaker 12: and head on way and say simply, look, I know

1915
01:35:44,680 --> 01:35:46,479
Speaker 12: that a lot of people are going to disagree with me.

1916
01:35:46,439 --> 01:35:48,080
Speaker 3: On this issue. I myself am going to bry.

1917
01:35:47,920 --> 01:35:50,479
Speaker 12: The way a moderate on abortion, but I know that

1918
01:35:50,479 --> 01:35:52,360
Speaker 12: people a lot of people are going to be disagreeing

1919
01:35:52,360 --> 01:35:55,000
Speaker 12: with me on this issue. Here's why I hold the

1920
01:35:55,040 --> 01:35:57,280
Speaker 12: position that I, you know this, this is the difference

1921
01:35:57,280 --> 01:36:00,200
Speaker 12: between leadership and just you know, putting your finger in

1922
01:36:00,240 --> 01:36:02,759
Speaker 12: the wind and following whatever is most popular in the polls.

1923
01:36:02,960 --> 01:36:07,600
Speaker 12: And I think that insincerity actually does come through, and

1924
01:36:07,680 --> 01:36:09,920
Speaker 12: I think it makes people mistrust the rest of what

1925
01:36:09,960 --> 01:36:10,360
Speaker 12: you say.

1926
01:36:10,360 --> 01:36:14,320
Speaker 5: I think the act Perystone comment. So yeah, no.

1927
01:36:15,360 --> 01:36:17,640
Speaker 4: Jd Vance went on one of the Sunday shows before he

1928
01:36:17,680 --> 01:36:20,479
Speaker 4: was picked as VP, was obviously as a contender and

1929
01:36:20,600 --> 01:36:22,760
Speaker 4: kind of flip flopped on the abortion drug meth of

1930
01:36:22,800 --> 01:36:28,240
Speaker 4: pristone sent alarm bells across the pro life movement.

1931
01:36:28,800 --> 01:36:30,080
Speaker 5: And I agree with you.

1932
01:36:30,160 --> 01:36:33,840
Speaker 4: I think that makes people distrust you and distrust your

1933
01:36:33,840 --> 01:36:38,080
Speaker 4: sincerity on other issues, let alone that issue. Is there

1934
01:36:38,120 --> 01:36:43,320
Speaker 4: something particular you think about abortion that that's most dangerous

1935
01:36:43,360 --> 01:36:48,200
Speaker 4: for a jd vance to tack to adopt a Trumpey attack,

1936
01:36:48,400 --> 01:36:50,280
Speaker 4: I should say, now that he's on the ticket and

1937
01:36:50,320 --> 01:36:51,120
Speaker 4: basically has.

1938
01:36:50,960 --> 01:36:53,479
Speaker 3: To, Yeah, I'm really not sure.

1939
01:36:53,720 --> 01:36:55,840
Speaker 12: What if there's a good way for him to tack

1940
01:36:55,920 --> 01:37:00,400
Speaker 12: here without appearing insincere, And I think maybe the best

1941
01:37:00,439 --> 01:37:02,320
Speaker 12: way to talk about it would be just to be

1942
01:37:02,400 --> 01:37:04,400
Speaker 12: very honest and say these are my views. I know

1943
01:37:04,479 --> 01:37:06,760
Speaker 12: they're not held by the majority of the country. They're

1944
01:37:06,760 --> 01:37:09,080
Speaker 12: not even held by my running mate. They're not part

1945
01:37:09,120 --> 01:37:12,760
Speaker 12: of our policy agenda for the presidency. But here's why

1946
01:37:12,800 --> 01:37:14,759
Speaker 12: I believe what I believe. I'm going to be honest

1947
01:37:14,800 --> 01:37:16,479
Speaker 12: with you. I know that most of you won't agree

1948
01:37:16,520 --> 01:37:19,120
Speaker 12: with me. I think that's actually a more I don't

1949
01:37:19,160 --> 01:37:22,479
Speaker 12: know as an American voter, as a citizen, I'd rather

1950
01:37:22,600 --> 01:37:24,960
Speaker 12: be talked to that way, even assuming on an issue

1951
01:37:24,960 --> 01:37:27,720
Speaker 12: that I very much disagree with someone on than to

1952
01:37:27,840 --> 01:37:31,920
Speaker 12: be gas lit and sort of misled, And I just

1953
01:37:32,200 --> 01:37:35,800
Speaker 12: don't think it comes off very well. And I think

1954
01:37:35,800 --> 01:37:39,479
Speaker 12: it just makes you lose credibility on other issues when

1955
01:37:39,520 --> 01:37:42,439
Speaker 12: you're not honest about, you know, things where you can

1956
01:37:42,600 --> 01:37:45,519
Speaker 12: easily pull up, you know, five hundred clips of you

1957
01:37:45,640 --> 01:37:49,040
Speaker 12: saying a particular thing, right, it just comes off. I

1958
01:37:49,040 --> 01:37:51,200
Speaker 12: think it damages your credibility and other issues. Not to

1959
01:37:51,200 --> 01:37:53,680
Speaker 12: be honest and then to also be honest about the

1960
01:37:53,720 --> 01:37:57,280
Speaker 12: fact that you have realistic expectations about how much of

1961
01:37:57,320 --> 01:37:59,599
Speaker 12: those views of yours are likely to be enacted through

1962
01:37:59,600 --> 01:38:03,040
Speaker 12: the political process because the majority of the country disagrees

1963
01:38:03,040 --> 01:38:03,280
Speaker 12: with you.

1964
01:38:05,600 --> 01:38:08,599
Speaker 1: Rachel, as a as a social conservative, I've been really

1965
01:38:08,720 --> 01:38:11,040
Speaker 1: actually curious to talk to you about how you felt

1966
01:38:11,080 --> 01:38:13,519
Speaker 1: about these issues clearly being which I know you care

1967
01:38:13,560 --> 01:38:19,040
Speaker 1: a lot about, clearly being intentionally sidelined by the Republican Party.

1968
01:38:19,280 --> 01:38:21,919
Speaker 8: Well, I think Inez has sort of distilled this correctly.

1969
01:38:22,280 --> 01:38:26,920
Speaker 8: You know, this issue has been protected from politics for

1970
01:38:26,960 --> 01:38:30,559
Speaker 8: fifty years, right, it's been protected by judicial fiot. Neither

1971
01:38:30,640 --> 01:38:34,040
Speaker 8: party has had to actually engage it as a political

1972
01:38:34,080 --> 01:38:38,280
Speaker 8: matter in the political process, and there they become almost

1973
01:38:38,280 --> 01:38:42,280
Speaker 8: two separate questions at this point how in terms of

1974
01:38:42,320 --> 01:38:44,879
Speaker 8: the you know, the morality of the issue, which drives

1975
01:38:45,000 --> 01:38:47,320
Speaker 8: a lot of how Republicans feel about this. You know,

1976
01:38:47,400 --> 01:38:50,600
Speaker 8: I'm a pro life Catholic, so is jdie Vance. I

1977
01:38:50,640 --> 01:38:52,840
Speaker 8: have thoughts about how Joe Biden presents himself on this

1978
01:38:52,880 --> 01:38:54,920
Speaker 8: issue that I will leave to the side for this moment.

1979
01:38:55,360 --> 01:39:00,040
Speaker 8: But you know how we have to now engage the

1980
01:39:00,040 --> 01:39:05,400
Speaker 8: political process almost at a state by state level, which

1981
01:39:05,439 --> 01:39:07,680
Speaker 8: is the position that Donald Trump has frankly taken. And

1982
01:39:07,720 --> 01:39:09,800
Speaker 8: I don't think we can jump to the end and

1983
01:39:09,840 --> 01:39:13,200
Speaker 8: say now we have to impose our end goal on

1984
01:39:13,240 --> 01:39:15,920
Speaker 8: everyone without doing the work first. To and AZ's point,

1985
01:39:16,000 --> 01:39:18,280
Speaker 8: I don't think you can moderate on this question. If

1986
01:39:18,320 --> 01:39:22,880
Speaker 8: you are someone who is pro life for the very

1987
01:39:22,920 --> 01:39:25,760
Speaker 8: reason that you believe human life begins a conception, there's

1988
01:39:25,760 --> 01:39:27,880
Speaker 8: no moderating on that point. Be honest about it, but

1989
01:39:27,960 --> 01:39:30,479
Speaker 8: also be honest about the fact that we live in

1990
01:39:30,520 --> 01:39:33,759
Speaker 8: a country where these decisions are decided politically. I personally

1991
01:39:33,760 --> 01:39:37,040
Speaker 8: think our pro life movement on the right has to

1992
01:39:37,080 --> 01:39:40,400
Speaker 8: sort of read architect itself, and they aren't doing this right.

1993
01:39:40,400 --> 01:39:43,120
Speaker 8: They're continuing this federal push for all these federal policies

1994
01:39:43,360 --> 01:39:45,760
Speaker 8: when in reality, I think there's a sequencing element here.

1995
01:39:45,840 --> 01:39:47,400
Speaker 8: You have to go make your case, so you have

1996
01:39:47,479 --> 01:39:51,000
Speaker 8: to persuade people at a very granular level before you

1997
01:39:51,040 --> 01:39:53,040
Speaker 8: can get to where you say you want to go.

1998
01:39:53,400 --> 01:39:55,760
Speaker 8: They're not rebuilding themselves that way. So I think we

1999
01:39:55,800 --> 01:39:57,840
Speaker 8: have a real disconnect. And it's why the pro life

2000
01:39:57,880 --> 01:40:00,360
Speaker 8: movement keeps losing around the country because they aren't actually

2001
01:40:00,360 --> 01:40:03,280
Speaker 8: going and doing the work. So you know, this is

2002
01:40:03,320 --> 01:40:08,000
Speaker 8: a generational quest. I think it's not like suddenly Row falls,

2003
01:40:08,120 --> 01:40:10,760
Speaker 8: and you know it's like Roe falls, question Mark, question

2004
01:40:10,840 --> 01:40:14,240
Speaker 8: Mark abortion band. Like, that's not how it works. That's

2005
01:40:14,240 --> 01:40:15,840
Speaker 8: not how the politics of this work at all. And

2006
01:40:15,880 --> 01:40:17,759
Speaker 8: I think you're kind of seeing the Trump campaign grapple

2007
01:40:17,800 --> 01:40:18,439
Speaker 8: with that reality.

2008
01:40:19,479 --> 01:40:21,720
Speaker 1: Rachel, what do you think of the potency of the

2009
01:40:21,840 --> 01:40:25,439
Speaker 1: issue come November? Because I have to tell you I

2010
01:40:25,439 --> 01:40:27,400
Speaker 1: mentioned before I lived in Kentucky, we were talking about

2011
01:40:27,439 --> 01:40:32,120
Speaker 1: Andy Basheer. Democrats in Kentucky were getting killed on the

2012
01:40:32,120 --> 01:40:35,720
Speaker 1: issue of abortion for years. Right this was you know,

2013
01:40:35,880 --> 01:40:39,600
Speaker 1: Republicans really took control of the state. One of the

2014
01:40:39,680 --> 01:40:43,679
Speaker 1: key issues that they used was abortion in a state

2015
01:40:43,760 --> 01:40:47,120
Speaker 1: that is very religious, and so it was quite shocking

2016
01:40:47,160 --> 01:40:49,120
Speaker 1: to me, to see the way that Andy Basheer was

2017
01:40:49,200 --> 01:40:53,080
Speaker 1: able to run affirmatively on his pro choice position, and

2018
01:40:53,160 --> 01:40:55,000
Speaker 1: it was a tremendous asset to him.

2019
01:40:55,040 --> 01:40:55,599
Speaker 3: He ran and out.

2020
01:40:55,640 --> 01:40:58,360
Speaker 1: I'm sure you saw the young girl who was raped

2021
01:40:58,400 --> 01:41:01,680
Speaker 1: and he said, you know, Daniel Cameron would force her

2022
01:41:01,720 --> 01:41:04,920
Speaker 1: to bear her rapist baby. It was a devastating ad

2023
01:41:05,520 --> 01:41:08,439
Speaker 1: And to see that flip in Kentucky to me was wild.

2024
01:41:08,560 --> 01:41:11,960
Speaker 1: I would not have predicted that the politics on the issue,

2025
01:41:11,960 --> 01:41:14,839
Speaker 1: even in a state like Kentucky, would flip so quickly.

2026
01:41:15,200 --> 01:41:19,479
Speaker 1: The question is does it remain so silent? Clearly Donald

2027
01:41:19,520 --> 01:41:21,280
Speaker 1: Trump wants to, you know, push it off to the

2028
01:41:21,320 --> 01:41:23,679
Speaker 1: side and make other issues more of the focus, immigration

2029
01:41:23,800 --> 01:41:27,479
Speaker 1: in particular, or the economy and inflation as well. Do

2030
01:41:27,560 --> 01:41:31,040
Speaker 1: you think that that is possible for him to or

2031
01:41:31,040 --> 01:41:34,680
Speaker 1: does this continue to be a highly salent, salient, important issue.

2032
01:41:36,960 --> 01:41:39,840
Speaker 8: You know, it's it's honestly hard hard for me to say.

2033
01:41:39,840 --> 01:41:42,080
Speaker 8: I think it's going to be something that Trump campaign

2034
01:41:42,120 --> 01:41:43,960
Speaker 8: is going to have to grapple with because Democrats are

2035
01:41:44,000 --> 01:41:47,760
Speaker 8: going to make them. But I don't I don't think that,

2036
01:41:48,439 --> 01:41:52,120
Speaker 8: you know, on the right, you know, Donald Trump has

2037
01:41:52,120 --> 01:41:54,599
Speaker 8: already decided how he's going to handle this and people

2038
01:41:54,640 --> 01:41:56,720
Speaker 8: can agree or disagree with it. But what he how

2039
01:41:56,760 --> 01:41:59,559
Speaker 8: he's determined it is. He's you know, basically saying the

2040
01:41:59,600 --> 01:42:03,400
Speaker 8: tradition Republican position on this has been, you know, we

2041
01:42:03,479 --> 01:42:06,839
Speaker 8: are pro life. We you know, from Donald Trump's perspective,

2042
01:42:06,840 --> 01:42:10,200
Speaker 8: we have exceptions for rape incests in the life of

2043
01:42:10,200 --> 01:42:13,360
Speaker 8: the mother in our abortion policy, you know, end of story.

2044
01:42:13,439 --> 01:42:15,519
Speaker 8: That's how Republicans are comfortable talking about it. I think

2045
01:42:15,520 --> 01:42:17,759
Speaker 8: that's what you're going to continue to see from his campaign.

2046
01:42:18,479 --> 01:42:18,679
Speaker 6: Now.

2047
01:42:18,800 --> 01:42:21,640
Speaker 8: The pro life movement, I think has a different perspective

2048
01:42:21,680 --> 01:42:23,519
Speaker 8: that they and they need to rebuild on this front.

2049
01:42:23,680 --> 01:42:25,439
Speaker 8: I don't think you're going to that is that is

2050
01:42:25,479 --> 01:42:27,680
Speaker 8: a year's long process. I don't think you're going to

2051
01:42:27,680 --> 01:42:29,080
Speaker 8: see that come out in this campaign.

2052
01:42:29,360 --> 01:42:29,920
Speaker 3: I do think.

2053
01:42:29,800 --> 01:42:32,880
Speaker 8: Democrats are going to continue to make abortion a centerpiece. However,

2054
01:42:33,160 --> 01:42:35,840
Speaker 8: I do think if if Democrats or I'm sorry, Donald

2055
01:42:35,880 --> 01:42:38,559
Speaker 8: Trump doubles down on his economic arguments, if he doubles

2056
01:42:38,600 --> 01:42:41,519
Speaker 8: down on you know, life being difficult for you know,

2057
01:42:41,640 --> 01:42:44,880
Speaker 8: middle class families, talks about open borders in that vein,

2058
01:42:44,880 --> 01:42:46,519
Speaker 8: I think Democrats are going to have a hard time

2059
01:42:46,720 --> 01:42:48,840
Speaker 8: continuing to say the only thing that matters in this

2060
01:42:49,000 --> 01:42:51,559
Speaker 8: you know this campaign is Donald Trump's going to make

2061
01:42:51,560 --> 01:42:54,960
Speaker 8: your nine year old, uh, you know, get an abortion

2062
01:42:55,160 --> 01:42:56,680
Speaker 8: or not get an abortion if she gets pregnant. I

2063
01:42:56,720 --> 01:42:59,800
Speaker 8: don't think that that resonates too far when you're dealing

2064
01:42:59,840 --> 01:43:01,280
Speaker 8: with kind of kitchen table issues.

2065
01:43:02,640 --> 01:43:04,639
Speaker 5: Well, you, guys, this is all I shouldn't say.

2066
01:43:04,640 --> 01:43:04,800
Speaker 6: Guys.

2067
01:43:04,840 --> 01:43:09,680
Speaker 4: I'm sorry you, ladies. This has been a riveting discussion.

2068
01:43:09,800 --> 01:43:12,960
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us on today's edition

2069
01:43:13,080 --> 01:43:14,880
Speaker 4: of Counterpoints. We appreciate your insight.

2070
01:43:15,320 --> 01:43:17,439
Speaker 3: Great to see you both. Thank you, ladies, Thank you

2071
01:43:17,479 --> 01:43:18,040
Speaker 3: for having us.

2072
01:43:18,360 --> 01:43:18,679
Speaker 5: Crystal.

2073
01:43:18,720 --> 01:43:20,960
Speaker 4: It's always so fun to have you to co host

2074
01:43:21,000 --> 01:43:23,559
Speaker 4: with you, and it's always so much fun to have

2075
01:43:23,600 --> 01:43:26,200
Speaker 4: you to bounce kind of ideas and arguments against. So

2076
01:43:26,360 --> 01:43:28,160
Speaker 4: appreciate you joining the show today.

2077
01:43:28,840 --> 01:43:30,400
Speaker 3: It was my plagure. This was a fun one. I

2078
01:43:30,439 --> 01:43:33,120
Speaker 3: like that we leaned into the lady power.

2079
01:43:33,320 --> 01:43:38,360
Speaker 5: So yes, next time we'll have all men.

2080
01:43:38,680 --> 01:43:40,800
Speaker 4: I guess we'll have two guys on what we'll do,

2081
01:43:40,840 --> 01:43:43,639
Speaker 4: like white dudes for Kamala, or we'll do like maybe

2082
01:43:43,640 --> 01:43:45,160
Speaker 4: we should do Maybe we should do it differently, we

2083
01:43:45,240 --> 01:43:47,479
Speaker 4: should do like black women for Trump.

2084
01:43:48,240 --> 01:43:50,360
Speaker 5: Oh okay, do that opposite?

2085
01:43:50,720 --> 01:43:53,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that. That would be a little bit

2086
01:43:53,520 --> 01:43:55,559
Speaker 1: of a hide. I can't like wal At the top

2087
01:43:55,600 --> 01:43:57,040
Speaker 1: of my head think of who that would be. Will

2088
01:43:57,040 --> 01:43:59,120
Speaker 1: come up with it, Candice Owens? Maybe she can join

2089
01:43:59,240 --> 01:44:00,400
Speaker 1: us if.

2090
01:44:00,280 --> 01:44:02,759
Speaker 4: We can get Sager to figure that out, and we'll

2091
01:44:02,760 --> 01:44:08,280
Speaker 4: make it happen all right, of course, and everyone, don't

2092
01:44:08,280 --> 01:44:12,080
Speaker 4: forget BP. Free one over at Breakingpoints dot com for

2093
01:44:12,160 --> 01:44:14,800
Speaker 4: a free thirty day trial of Breaking Points Premium. We

2094
01:44:14,880 --> 01:44:17,920
Speaker 4: appreciate you watching. I'll be back here with Ryan next

2095
01:44:17,920 --> 01:44:20,920
Speaker 4: week for another edition of Counterpoints. Thanks everyone, hope you

2096
01:44:20,920 --> 01:44:22,559
Speaker 4: have a great rest of your week. Chris, we'll get

2097
01:44:22,600 --> 01:44:23,960
Speaker 4: back here with Sager tomorrow