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Speaker 1: Yeah, welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's bring in Christian Schultz, City Group Global Director of

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Speaker 1: European Research. He joins us from London. Christian, thanks very

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Speaker 1: much for being with us. All right, let's honor Mr

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Speaker 1: Farrell here and begin with what's going on in Spain?

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Speaker 1: Is this, first of all unexpected and what do you

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Speaker 1: believe this no confidence vote will lead to? Well, we

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Speaker 1: had some good news out of Spain in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the week because the long delayed budget what was

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Speaker 1: passed because of the Catalonia issue is last year that

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Speaker 1: had been postponed and I had passed, so that was

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Speaker 1: actually good news. And now we get this corruption scandal

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Speaker 1: coming to head, not just the treasure apparently, but also

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Speaker 1: the party that the Conservative Party as a whole, being

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Speaker 1: in the dock and now what looks like a non

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Speaker 1: confidence vote um and perhaps new elections. Now this is

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Speaker 1: all sort of unfolding as we as we speak, I guess,

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Speaker 1: so we can't draw any firm conclusions yet, but I

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Speaker 1: think the general story about Spain is here's an economy

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Speaker 1: which has bounced back very nicely from to crises um

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Speaker 1: and the problems come down a lot. The economy is

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Speaker 1: growing fast. The economy the government so far has been

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Speaker 1: doing the right things, which is why people would be

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Speaker 1: worried if it's elected out of office. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that Spain, unlike other countries, especially Italy, doesn't really

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Speaker 1: have any Euroskeptic parties. So whatever combination of coalition we

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Speaker 1: get next in Spain, I think they're worried that it

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Speaker 1: would dramatically change the direction of the economy. UM. I

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Speaker 1: think is is quite low. We have to say that

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Speaker 1: with caution, but I think it's quite low. As someone

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Speaker 1: messaged me this morning, there's a big difference between pro

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Speaker 1: European populism and anti European populism within Spain and within Italy. UM.

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Speaker 1: Then we've got the price. What's in the price? There

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Speaker 1: is a one hundred basis points spread. It's coming in

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Speaker 1: a little bit now, about ninety seven basis points between

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Speaker 1: the Italian and Spanish ten year there's a one percent

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Speaker 1: difference a hundred basis point difference to be more precise,

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Speaker 1: between Italian and Spanish tenure debt makes sense to you

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Speaker 1: based on politics and economics, Christian, Well, I think you know,

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Speaker 1: Spanish debt ratios are much lower than than Italy's, potential

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Speaker 1: growth is much higher than in than in Italy, so

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Speaker 1: I think there's plenty of reasons. And politics are more

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Speaker 1: stable than in Italy, so I think there's plenty of

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Speaker 1: reasons to believe that Spain has become something like a

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Speaker 1: semi core euros own country. Yeah, much closer to say

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Speaker 1: Germany than than to the real periphery like Italy and increase,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's that's justified. But in the short term,

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Speaker 1: you know, uncertainty can rebound. We've seen it last year

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Speaker 1: with the Catalonia referendum. We may now see some uncertainty

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Speaker 1: around potential elections, but I think the general story is

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Speaker 1: still the same. I'm more confident in the Spanish outlook

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Speaker 1: than in Italian. Christian, I just wonder what it means

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Speaker 1: for markets, because the lesson of the last several years

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Speaker 1: in Europe since the European debt crisis is to fade

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Speaker 1: political risk that's how you made money. You faded the

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Speaker 1: Catalonia risk last year. You fade the risk in in

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Speaker 1: France last year. Why is the situation in Italy any different? Oh,

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Speaker 1: it may not be. I think there's plenty of scenarios

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Speaker 1: of where we can go from here with Italy. There

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Speaker 1: is the scenario that we've seen quite play out quite

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Speaker 1: a few times now recently, where um an event looks

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Speaker 1: like a big risk, but then people torn down the

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Speaker 1: reth rig don't take the most aggressive decision. They could

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Speaker 1: be taking some of the Italian context. That would mean

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Speaker 1: a relatively smooth summit EU summit at the end of June, perhaps,

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Speaker 1: you know, putting all these fiscal easing pledges a bit

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Speaker 1: on the back burner, and very quickly you'd be back

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Speaker 1: to a scenario where Italy isn't prized as much bigger

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Speaker 1: risk there was before this government would befall. But there's also,

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Speaker 1: of course, the risk of a very confrontational, judent summit

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Speaker 1: of the government very quickly moving to reverse the pension

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Speaker 1: reforms and do all these tax cuts, becoming fiscally unsustainable.

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Speaker 1: UM the e c B becoming involved in all of

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Speaker 1: this UM. The Greece scenario if you like UM, which,

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Speaker 1: of course with Italy instead of Greece, would be a

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Speaker 1: much bigger risk than it was perhaps, But at the

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Speaker 1: same time, the e c B is cutting back on

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Speaker 1: its stimulus program. This has got to be count availing

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Speaker 1: to what's going on in Italy. Yes, but they're only

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Speaker 1: cutting back on the net purchases UM. So the thirty

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Speaker 1: billion per month that they're buying, they have of course

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Speaker 1: already bought about two point five trillions, So the monthly

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Speaker 1: extra purchases are becoming less and less important, and more

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Speaker 1: and more important is that the stock of bonds they

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Speaker 1: have already bought in which they're continuing to reinvest. So

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Speaker 1: I don't think that the ecb ending purchases at the

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Speaker 1: end of the year isn't necessarily such a big negative

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Speaker 1: for for these peripheral markets. Kristin Schell is always going

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Speaker 1: to Canty with the City Group, Global director of European Research,

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Speaker 1: joining US out of London. Well. North Korea said that

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Speaker 1: it was surprised by President Donald Trump's decision to cancel

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Speaker 1: the June twelfth summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong on,

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Speaker 1: and now North Korea says it remains willing to meet

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Speaker 1: with the United States at any time. Here to tell

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Speaker 1: us more about the situation is Thomas Byrne. He is

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Speaker 1: the president of the Korea Society, and he is an

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Speaker 1: adjunct professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University's

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Speaker 1: School of International and Public Affairs. And I should say

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Speaker 1: that the Mr. Burns education into the world of Korea

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Speaker 1: and the Korean Peninsula goes all the way back to

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Speaker 1: his time in the Peace Corps, in which he served

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Speaker 1: in South Korea. And I'm wondering, Professor Byrne, if you

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Speaker 1: can just give us a little bit of perspective as

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Speaker 1: to what do you believe is actually going on in

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Speaker 1: North Korea. Yeah, well, my my thinking about North Korea

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Speaker 1: is um. You know, Kim Jong l and the leader

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Speaker 1: of North Korea surprised everybody on January one, h saying

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Speaker 1: he's willing to engage South Korea, willing to UH prioritize

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Speaker 1: economic development over military prowess and UH and that's set

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Speaker 1: into motion. What we've seen play out with the summit

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Speaker 1: UH with Kim Jong Lun in China toward China is

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Speaker 1: historic one with South Korea, Poma and German at the

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Speaker 1: end of April and almost one with President Trump would

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Speaker 1: have been the first time UH sitting president has met

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Speaker 1: a North Korean leader. I think what's going on in

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Speaker 1: that North Korea this is a very dramatic shift strategically.

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Speaker 1: It really hasn't baked in very well that to to

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Speaker 1: give up its military first policy and go to something

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Speaker 1: like economic development, and really of North Korea series about

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Speaker 1: economic development, it really does have to abandon its nuclear

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Speaker 1: weapons program and has to develop resources, um and not

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Speaker 1: just money but also institutional resources to developing an economy,

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Speaker 1: and it won't be able to do that under the

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Speaker 1: sanctions that exist. Do you believe that Kim Chong is

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Speaker 1: UH secure in his position in North Korea? Well, I get,

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Speaker 1: I mean who knows, right, I mean he has been

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Speaker 1: very uh very firm, if not ruthless and rooting out

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Speaker 1: opposition reports star there's been you know, more executions in

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Speaker 1: his short UH time and wet this about six years now,

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Speaker 1: I think, uh than under his father's And I think

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Speaker 1: if he was willing to go to Singapore, assuming that

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Speaker 1: was serious, I think he feels pretty pretty secure. He

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Speaker 1: didn't make two trips to China for the first time,

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Speaker 1: first time he left North Korea since coming to power

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Speaker 1: in the end of it's almost that the South Koreans

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Speaker 1: happening that the president has canceled the summit. What I

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Speaker 1: read is that they're they're they're disappointed. South Korean hopes

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Speaker 1: were very high, and I you know, uh, the country

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Speaker 1: has been divided since since n UM, it's been in

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Speaker 1: a state of armistice and for sixty five years, three

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Speaker 1: years of a very very devastating war, and they were

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Speaker 1: hoping they could turn the corner and and see, you know,

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Speaker 1: peace and prosperity for the whole peninsula. I think those

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Speaker 1: hopes and aspirations were still in play. I don't think UM,

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Speaker 1: they've got out the window. I think we're in much

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Speaker 1: better position now we're in December last year. So putting

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Speaker 1: things into perspective, I think maybe events moved a bit

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Speaker 1: too quickly. UM. North Korea was not quite sure on

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Speaker 1: on how much it could, on what the how much

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Speaker 1: would have to give up to to have this meeting

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Speaker 1: with the President Trump and to really embark upon a

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Speaker 1: program of the new ecularization Thomas for Wall Street, there's

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Speaker 1: a big question in the last twenty four hours. UM.

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Speaker 1: For a while, over the last year the President has

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Speaker 1: been leaning on China to put the pressure on North Korea,

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Speaker 1: and in many ways he's tied that effort into the

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Speaker 1: trade policy story as well, willing to back away on

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Speaker 1: trade if the Chinese can put the pressure on the

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Speaker 1: North Koreans to come to the table. What has China's

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Speaker 1: role in all of this now? But China has a

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Speaker 1: big role, and it's really hard to figure it out.

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Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, I think it's I think

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Speaker 1: it's safe to say that China is in with the

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Speaker 1: ultimate objective that the US has an also staff koreative

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Speaker 1: Republic of Korea, that is a we dismantling of North

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Speaker 1: Korea's nuclear weapons program, and that's the so called Libyan model.

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Speaker 1: Um Oliba model happened to be on very rapidly. So

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Speaker 1: they're all in favor of that. China may have a

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Speaker 1: different timetable and want to see more concessions from the

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Speaker 1: US up front than the US is probably willing to give,

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Speaker 1: given the disappointing record of twenty years of that type

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Speaker 1: of diplomacy with North Korea and where North Korea is

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Speaker 1: today with nuclear bombs, with with the intercontinental ballistic missiles.

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Speaker 1: But I think they both agree on the fundamental strategic objective,

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Speaker 1: it's really on how to get there. Um so I

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Speaker 1: it's how they work that out. Now. One of the

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Speaker 1: one of the dynamics of this whole complicated process is

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Speaker 1: that if North Korea word who embark on a genuine

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Speaker 1: program of the nuclearization or path the nuclearization, who would

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Speaker 1: probably imply that they would move close to the South

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Speaker 1: Korea and would be some distance between more distance between

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Speaker 1: North Korea and China, And maybe it is uncomfortable about that.

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Speaker 1: Thomas Byrne. Previous to your role at the Korea Society,

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Speaker 1: you were with Moody's Investors Services, you were the director

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Speaker 1: of Analysis for the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific.

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Speaker 1: What can you tell us about the reaction perhaps in

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Speaker 1: Japan and other nations in the region. Well, everyone, I

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Speaker 1: think was very hopeful that this, uh, this this great

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Speaker 1: geopolitical risk would be contained and eliminated through a process

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Speaker 1: of the nuclearization. However, I don't think anyone has given

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Speaker 1: up hope that that outcome could still be achieved. Um

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Speaker 1: One of the one of the things to understand, the

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Speaker 1: biggest deterrent to geopolitical risks in Northeast Asia has been

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Speaker 1: the r O k US Alliance for UH since since

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Speaker 1: nineteen fifty three, for sixty five years. UM this has

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Speaker 1: prevented UH an outbreak of the Second Korean War. It's

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Speaker 1: been defensive in nature, it hasn't been aggressive and that

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Speaker 1: Korea at all and UH and this has enabled South

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Speaker 1: Korea to developed into such a prosperous country that it

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Speaker 1: is today and also a democratic country. Can North Korea

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Speaker 1: achieve some kind of advance economically without striking a deal

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Speaker 1: with the United States? I don't think so. I think

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Speaker 1: it could well. First of all, the question is UH,

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Speaker 1: you know, UH, it's deprived of resources right now. A

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Speaker 1: deal with the US would really mean that North Korea

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Speaker 1: has the opportunity to open to the rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: They joined the i m F. Now, if North Korea

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Speaker 1: one is expecting to get help from the World Bank

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Speaker 1: or the Asian Development Bank or even the the Asian

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Speaker 1: Infrastructure Investment Bank in Beijing, they have to join the

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Speaker 1: I m F. However, North Korea perhaps can get China

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Speaker 1: could ease or relax some of the sanctions that it

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Speaker 1: has been enforcing. How But China, because it will not

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Speaker 1: do that until North Korea and barracks on the nuclearization

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Speaker 1: Thomas justly, I just want to come through if I

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Speaker 1: possibly can, just to jump in up. Possibly can Thomas um.

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Speaker 1: The question I think, just to wrap things up, is

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Speaker 1: whether the North Korean regime is collapsing. A lot of

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Speaker 1: people have made a big deal about the destruction of

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Speaker 1: the nuclear test site. There are some reports that actually

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Speaker 1: it collapsed a long while ago, and that's why the

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Speaker 1: North Korean leader has come to the table. Just how

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Speaker 1: bad are things in North Korea right now? Well, North

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Speaker 1: Korea is a black box. I mean it probably no

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Speaker 1: one would have advanced noticed if the if the regime

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Speaker 1: is collapsing. But I think the economy is in trouble.

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Speaker 1: I think it's been in trouble for for some years.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the import figures, it's not importing.

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Speaker 1: The imports for going down even before the sanctions were introduced.

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Speaker 1: The new comprehensive sanctions that if they're continued, would be

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Speaker 1: much have a much greater impact on North koreezy economy

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Speaker 1: than the Orian sanctions had on the ring An economy.

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Speaker 1: So it's hard to say, but you know, it's a

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Speaker 1: very repressive government. It has keptain power since Niking forty

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Speaker 1: through war and through famine, so it's it has more

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Speaker 1: staying power than any probably any other government any anywhere

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Speaker 1: else in the world. Thomas Burn gret to catch up

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Speaker 1: with you, say thank you very much for giving your time,

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Speaker 1: the Korean Society president and Columbia University professor on North Korea,

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Speaker 1: the South and the relationship with the United States. I'm

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Speaker 1: really pleased to say that we can now cross over

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg's Michael McKay, who's standing by with the Dallas

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. President. Well, thank you very much, and good

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Speaker 1: morning to everybody on Bloomberg television and radio worldwide. And

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Speaker 1: thank you, miss President for joint don't you like to

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Speaker 1: be able to call Mr President? Welcome to Texas, Mike.

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Speaker 1: We're glad to have you here. Thank you. Fundamentals, I

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Speaker 1: don't think anybody doesn't know your position, but just for

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Speaker 1: the record, you see growth picking up, unemployment going down,

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Speaker 1: and two more rate moves this year is and that

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Speaker 1: my base cases three for the year. Uh, we should

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Speaker 1: be gradually moving toward neutral. And the other caution that

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Speaker 1: I've repeated various times as while this year's growth will

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Speaker 1: be strong, next year will be somewhat weaker, and by

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Speaker 1: we're gonna head back down to potential, which is closer

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Speaker 1: to one and three quarters to two percent. The reason

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Speaker 1: I mentioned it, that's on my mind when I think

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Speaker 1: about the shape of the Fed funds curve. What would

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Speaker 1: it take to get you to support a fourth move

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Speaker 1: this year? UH, continued strengthen the economy, But more than that,

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Speaker 1: I'd want to see some actions that suggested to me

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Speaker 1: at least that sustainable GDP growth was improved, and so

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Speaker 1: that would be things that improve growth in the workforce. UH,

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Speaker 1: it would it would show some policy moves that might

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Speaker 1: suggest we're going to improve skill levels of our workforce,

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Speaker 1: education levels, some of the fundamental drivers UH would need

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Speaker 1: to change for me to be more aggressive. The Open

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Speaker 1: Market Committee in its last statement put symmetrical higher up there.

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Speaker 1: With the choice of that word, What are you trying

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Speaker 1: to tell the markets that inflation may run a little

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Speaker 1: bit above two percent or that you are going to

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Speaker 1: tolerate it for a while running above two percent? I

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Speaker 1: think it's the probably the former. It's that inflation may

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Speaker 1: run a little bit above two percent, and our job

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Speaker 1: is is to try to keep inflation so that it

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Speaker 1: doesn't persistently run above two or persistently below and now

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Speaker 1: we've been running seven or eight years below two. But

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Speaker 1: in the future would I would tolerate some moves above too,

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Speaker 1: But if I thought it would be persistently staying above two,

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Speaker 1: I'd want to take more policy action. The forecast you

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Speaker 1: mentioned in June you have to make a new one

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Speaker 1: for the Open Market Committee, meaning tax cuts, trade, tariffs,

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Speaker 1: budget deficits, all the things that are going on in

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Speaker 1: the world right now. How confident are you in what

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Speaker 1: you think is gonna happen. Well, this is part of

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Speaker 1: the job. You've always got all these variables changing, which

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Speaker 1: makes this job interesting and also why it's not a

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Speaker 1: static thing. It's a dynamic thing. But the tax legislation,

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned it for this year is a positive,

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Speaker 1: but you mentioned debt on the flip side. While it's

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Speaker 1: a stimulus now, I think it may create a head

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Speaker 1: wind in the out years because we're gonna need to

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Speaker 1: moderate deck growth. We're already it's unsustainably high levels of

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Speaker 1: deck growth. On the trade tearor front, I've said consistently,

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Speaker 1: UH trade is an opportunity for the United States, particularly

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Speaker 1: in North America, and I would be concerned if we

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Speaker 1: don't ultimately get this trade agreement updated and agreed to

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Speaker 1: with Mexico and Canada because it's an intermediate good relationship.

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Speaker 1: It helps logistics supply chains, it adds jobs here, and

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Speaker 1: it makes us more potent in negotiating the chan which

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Speaker 1: it well in your mind, what's the biggest threat or

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Speaker 1: threats to the U s economy right now? Still the

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Speaker 1: big The biggest threat are the things that are staring

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Speaker 1: us in the face. UH. Our workforce growth is slowing

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Speaker 1: because we're aging, and we're not yet making policy decisions

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Speaker 1: to address that. Our skill levels in the United States

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Speaker 1: are lagging the rest of the world. We rank twenty

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Speaker 1: five out of OC countries, and our skill levels aren't

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Speaker 1: keeping up with disruption. And the last thing is we're

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Speaker 1: very highly leveraged, and we just leveraged up late in

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Speaker 1: the economic cycle, and I'm worried that that's going to

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Speaker 1: create a headwind for economic growth. It also means in

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Speaker 1: the next downturn we don't we may not have capacity

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Speaker 1: for fiscal policy. Those things are the things that ultimately

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Speaker 1: matter the most and worrying me the most. Well, non

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Speaker 1: financial corporate debt, is it a record Speaking of leverage.

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Speaker 1: There's a view that could be the trigger for the

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Speaker 1: next real financial crisis. How do you see it. I

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Speaker 1: probably don't see that. Uh So, Yes, corporate debt to

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Speaker 1: GDP is higher, but the financial sector is part of

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Speaker 1: that is as D level urged. And what I'm looking

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Speaker 1: for is systemic risk. If a company fails or defaults,

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Speaker 1: that's not a good thing, but it's not going to

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Speaker 1: pull down or shouldn't pull down the rest of the economy.

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Speaker 1: So corporate debt to GDP is something to watch, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't I don't see a red

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Speaker 1: flag on that at this point. Another thing you didn't

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Speaker 1: mention is oil. You're the guy in the oil patch

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Speaker 1: here for the fat. What do you see happening with

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Speaker 1: oil prices? And how much of a danger is it

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Speaker 1: to the economy. It's not a danger. You know. We're

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Speaker 1: in a We're in a fragile equilibrium right now. You've

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Speaker 1: heard me say before, And what do I mean by that?

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Speaker 1: We're in relative supply demand balance globally, but part of

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Speaker 1: that balance is based on OPEC. Another oil producing countries

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Speaker 1: are green. They're gonna cut one point eight million barrels

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Speaker 1: a day and there's some talk that maybe they're going

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Speaker 1: to revisit that. Having said that, we think for the

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Speaker 1: next three to five years you're gonna see sort of

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Speaker 1: a volatile up and down in oil prices, with shale

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Speaker 1: being the incremental supplier to global demand. My concern is

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Speaker 1: not the next few years, it's in the out years.

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Speaker 1: We think, well, we may well likely get into a

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Speaker 1: global undersupply situation because we as prolific as shale is,

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Speaker 1: it's not going to be enough to keep up with

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Speaker 1: global demand, and we're not spending on long life projects,

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Speaker 1: so we we think there's spike risk to the upside.

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Speaker 1: That would worry me because if we're growing slowly in

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Speaker 1: these out years and then you get an oil increase

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Speaker 1: or a gasoline increase, it's like a tax on consumers.

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Speaker 1: But I think we're in a we're in a fragile equilibrium,

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Speaker 1: in pretty good shape for the next few years. There

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Speaker 1: is always the question of when people think recession might

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Speaker 1: be coming. Um. I assume you're of the view that recession,

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Speaker 1: as FED officials are, processions don't die of old age.

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Speaker 1: But there's a feeling in the mass right that that

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Speaker 1: maybe we uh, we're seeing the yield curves start to

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Speaker 1: tell us something. Well, uh, there's always some not material,

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Speaker 1: not immaterial probability of recession. As you know. Uh, what

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Speaker 1: I'm worried about is sustainable economic growth. We're gonna have recessions.

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Speaker 1: My job is to make sure that an ups and

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Speaker 1: down cycles. You know, we've got maximum sustainable employment and

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Speaker 1: price stability. And what I'm worried about right now is

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Speaker 1: not the short term cyclical questions. But I'm worried we're not.

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Speaker 1: Are we doing the right things to grow to grow GDP?

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Speaker 1: GDP is made up of growth in the workforce and

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Speaker 1: growth in productivity, and I don't see us making policy

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Speaker 1: steps to address either. And I think both it look

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Speaker 1: like they're gonna be sluggish in the outyears. We just

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Speaker 1: don't notice it as much right now because we've got

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Speaker 1: a very large fiscal stimulus and up to now, the

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Speaker 1: FED has been accommodative. Are you getting less? So how

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Speaker 1: do we know when you get to the point that

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Speaker 1: we're starting to tighten policy. Well, we're obviously raising the

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Speaker 1: FED funds rate and moving toward neutral neutrals, the theoretical

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Speaker 1: FED funds rate where we're no longer accommodative. Uh, I

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Speaker 1: think that level is probably in the neighborhood of two

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Speaker 1: and a half two and three quarters, which basically a

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Speaker 1: half a percent to three quarters per cent of a

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Speaker 1: point real. Uh, we're at one fifty to one now,

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Speaker 1: so three or four moves we will be at neutral.

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Speaker 1: So you said you would not intentionally vote for a

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Speaker 1: policy that would invert the yield curve. But that's almost

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Speaker 1: a tautology. I mean, why would you do that? The

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Speaker 1: real question is can you avoid a policy accident by

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Speaker 1: raising the federal funds rate too far but not realizing it? Uh? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that that could happen because we don't control the curve.

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Speaker 1: As you know, we controlled just the Fed funds rate,

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Speaker 1: and right now two's to tens is roughly you know,

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Speaker 1: fifty basis points. So this is why I've said, and

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Speaker 1: others have said, every day I'm gonna be watching very

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Speaker 1: carefully the shape of the yield curve. And what the

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Speaker 1: shape of the yield curve tells me is prospects for

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Speaker 1: future growth out your growth are sluggish, and so I

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Speaker 1: think it's worth paying attention to that. But that will

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Speaker 1: That's the reason why I'm saying, let's just keep the

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Speaker 1: base case for this year at three I'm not looking

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Speaker 1: to increase that because I've got the shape of the

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Speaker 1: yield curve and out your growth in the back of

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Speaker 1: my mind. Well, given that, what would your outlook for

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Speaker 1: rate moves in two thousand nineteen. Are we going to

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Speaker 1: see a pause from the FAM? No? I I still

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Speaker 1: think we should be gradually moving toward a neutral policy.

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Speaker 1: And again neutrals two and a half and two or

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Speaker 1: three quarters just a question of the pace. But but

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Speaker 1: that's still my overall view. Uh, we should be gradually

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Speaker 1: moving to two and a half two and three quarters,

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Speaker 1: but watching these other factors as we move along that curve.

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Speaker 1: We are talking with Robert Kaplan, the President of the

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Speaker 1: Dallas Federal Reserve, on Bloomberg Television and Radio worldwide. Uh,

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Speaker 1: have inflation dynamics changed when you look at what you

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Speaker 1: think you need to do? I think they have. And

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Speaker 1: as you know, we're at a conference here that we're

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Speaker 1: hosting on technology enabled disruption. I think one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons is technology enable disruptions. It means technology replacing people,

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Speaker 1: but more importantly, consumers having at their disposal computing power

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Speaker 1: that literally most companies didn't have twenty five years ago.

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Speaker 1: The power of what consumers can now do has has shifted,

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Speaker 1: and so businesses have much less pricing power, and so

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Speaker 1: it relates to inflation. It means that if a business

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Speaker 1: wants to increase prices, they really aren't as able to

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Speaker 1: do it, and technology is grinding that down and globalization

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Speaker 1: is a part of it too. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: that's part of the reason, in my view, why the

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Speaker 1: Phillips curve is flattered or more muted. I think the

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Speaker 1: economy and the structure has changed. Well. We came out

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Speaker 1: of the Great Recession with companies managing the bottom line

431
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 1: rather than trying to grow the top line by investing.

432
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: Has that changed now that the economy has picked up

433
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,959
Speaker 1: or are we still because of disruption or whatever, going

434
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: to see the emphasis be on cutting people and keeping

435
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: wages down. Well, companies would love to grow the top

436
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 1: line and obviously work with my companies my entire career

437
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: and that hasn't changed. They want to they want to grow,

438
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: but uh, I think it's not easy, and so what

439
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: you're seeing companies do is try to get more scale,

440
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 1: in part by merging. Uh. And that's why you see

441
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: so much merger activity. It's due to disruption and lack

442
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: of pricing power. And the other thing you're seeing them

443
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: do is continue to invest aggressively in technology. But I

444
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 1: think when you see all this merger activity people, you

445
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: should probably connect that with the fact lack of pricing power.

446
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,959
Speaker 1: Businesses are getting more scale and trying to to protect

447
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 1: their margins and so uh, that is having a pretty

448
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 1: profound effect on workers. If you've got a college education,

449
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: all the data showing you can probably adapt this' not

450
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: that it won't be traumatic, uh, but if you're a

451
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: high school educated person or less, which is forty six

452
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: million workers in this country, you're probably seeing your job

453
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: disrupted or eliminated. And unless you get retrained, which is

454
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 1: easier to say, harder to do, you're likely going to

455
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: see your productivity and income decline. And that's that's the

456
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: grinding and discomfort that we're seeing in the economy. All

457
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: these wonderful Texas businesses, the CEOs, are they going to

458
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 1: be increasing investment because of the tax cuts. Uh, From

459
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: what I can tell so far, there's greater capex investment

460
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: this year. That's the good news. The bad news is

461
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: a lot of it from my discussions with CEOs, is

462
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: just moving from next year in the year after two. Now,

463
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: businesses I don't think are going to fundamentally increase their

464
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 1: cap X over the medium term unless they see greater demand,

465
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: and because of sluggish workforce growth, sluggish out your GDP growth,

466
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 1: I think they're still in a cautious stance right now.

467
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 1: They're focusing a lot more on costs and investing and

468
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: trying to maintain margins and still see solid demand, but

469
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,239
Speaker 1: not breakaway demand. Let me ask you something for our

470
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 1: friends of the fixed income trading guests out there, what

471
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 1: do you make of the drift upward in the effective

472
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: federal funds right over the last couple of months. Some

473
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 1: see a quantitative tightening at work here that will shorten

474
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: the time that balance sheet normalization goes well. I think

475
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: the market is paying attention to what the Fed is saying.

476
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 1: We've got strong GDP growth, and so I think people

477
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: are probably putting a little more weight on our forward

478
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: guidance and our dot plot as to what we say

479
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: we're gonna do. But that's on the short end, and

480
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: so you see that in the one year, in the

481
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: two year and six month libory. On the long end,

482
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 1: you're seeing a drift up but not very rapid, and

483
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 1: that's creating this flattening. So that's what I make of it. Well,

484
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 1: the minutes show that the Open Market Committee discussed maybe

485
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: raising ioe are the top end of your range by

486
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: only twenty basis points um to compensate. Is that necessary?

487
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 1: Would you support that? Is that something we could look

488
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: for and I would support it. And I think this

489
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: is a this is a little bit of a technical matter,

490
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: UH flow of funds at or UH and and for listeners,

491
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: this is about the mechanics of how we set the

492
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: FED funds right. And I think a little bit of

493
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 1: recalibration is not surprising and it probably appropriate. You think

494
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: that's likely for June? I mean, is it is there

495
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 1: a general feeling that you need to you need I'm

496
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 1: going to stay away from that and leave those discussions

497
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: for in the for for the within the f O

498
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: m C there and UH and you'll see what we

499
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: decide when it comes out in the minute. But we

500
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 1: shouldn't be surprised. In other words, it is obviously I

501
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,360
Speaker 1: think we foreshadowed it. You've seen a little foreshadowing of it. Yeah,

502
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: you came to Texas from Massachusetts and you live for

503
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 1: a long time in New York too high tax, high

504
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: regulation states. You come here, anybody who comes here nose.

505
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: They talk about the success of the Texas e company

506
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: being based on low regulation, low taxes. Have you become

507
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: a convert? Do you think they're right? Uh? I think

508
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: there's a lot of advantages to Texas. And one of

509
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,479
Speaker 1: the things you and I've talked a lot about, one

510
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: of the things that's helped Texas over the last fifteen

511
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: years is migration of pete in firms. Ten years ago,

512
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: the population of Texas million Today it's nine. We think

513
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: in the next years it's gonna exceed forty million. And

514
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 1: the reason I mentioned this, we don't talk about it enough.

515
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: In the United States, population growth workforce growth is a

516
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: key engine of GDP growth. Texas has got that. Uh.

517
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: And this is a challenge for probably thirty to thirty

518
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 1: five states in the United States. Their population and workforce

519
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: growth is flat to down. And so uh, Texas has

520
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: got more latitude than to collect property taxes. It's got

521
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: a value added tax. We have some taxes here that

522
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: other states don't, but we don't have an income tax,

523
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: either at the corporate or the individual level. Uh. And

524
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: you've got a very business friendly, can do environment and

525
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: UH and so, and it's been a virtuous cycle. The

526
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: more people that move here in businesses, the more other

527
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: businesses want to come. So uh, Texas prospects are very bright.

528
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 1: I think other dates can do it in a different way.

529
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: But but every state I talked to, and every governor

530
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: I talked to, has got the same challenge. How do

531
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: we attract workers and people and grow the workforce that

532
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: affects their investment in education underfund attention funds. And that's

533
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: why I talk about demographics so much. We are letting

534
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 1: the population growth in this country UH slide. We've had

535
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: it before in our history. Immigration UH in improving immigration,

536
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 1: it could be skills based, much more employer based. But

537
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: to think we're gonna cut immigration and grow GDP, I

538
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: think it's going to create a challenge for many states

539
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 1: in the country. Robert Capelan President of the Dallas FAT

540
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: thank you for joining us from live from deep in

541
00:30:42,760 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 1: the heart of Texas. Well. It is time now to

542
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: get a preview of Face the Nation. Margaret Brennan, of course,

543
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: the host this weekend on Bloomberg Radio. Listen to Face

544
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: the Nation Sunday, two pm. New York, Washington, d C.

545
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: And now on Bloomberg one oh six one Boston, Newburyport.

546
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 1: That's Face the Nation. It's on this Sunday at two

547
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: pm on Bloomberg Radio Market. Always a pleasure. I have

548
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 1: a feeling it's quote a sort of a pick your

549
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 1: Hotspot program. You get to choose which part of the

550
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: world is more unstable, what what is the sort of

551
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: focus for you. This week, we will be honing in

552
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: on Asia, not just because of this North Korean summit

553
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 1: being pushed off, the June twelve summit in Singapore not

554
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: happening at land Um, but also asking the question of

555
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: what China's rolling as the President has been public in

556
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 1: his suspicion that China maybe the reason using their influence

557
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 1: to slow down progress with the US on the North

558
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 1: Korean issue. We'll talk about that um as well as

559
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: some of these trade bears with Marco Rubio, the Republican

560
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: senator from Florida, who has been a critic of the

561
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: administration in terms of what they're offering or at least

562
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: rhetorically offering to do to help out that Chinese telecom

563
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: firm z t e UM. We also have Jim Clapper who,

564
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: as you know, was a Director of National Intelligence under

565
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 1: the Obama administration. He's been a critic of the President,

566
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to Russia, but on the issue

567
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: of North Korea, he thinks it was the right idea

568
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: to meet face to face with Kim Jong un, and

569
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: he's going to talk to us about where we go next.

570
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 1: You know, Margaret, it's interesting. The guest lineup is fascinating

571
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: to me because it raises a question of how important

572
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: is it for there to be some degree of consensus,

573
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 1: some united front that the United States is putting out

574
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: there when it negotiates trade with China and with the

575
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: European Union. I mean, what are you expecting to hear

576
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 1: from them on that score, given the fact that they've

577
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: expressed their descent vocally amid a pretty fractured policy of

578
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: the White Houses. Well, the way House says they've got

579
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, going to Beijing to have

580
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: some of these talks and the issues z t either

581
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 1: trying to claim it separate and apart from the broader

582
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 1: carraffs and trade dispute. Of course, for Beijing, they don't

583
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: often see these things as siloed as US officials would

584
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: like to present them ass um and that's why the

585
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 1: President has made clear his suspicion that all of its

586
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: bleeding together and influence perhaps progress on the North Korea front.

587
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio and a number of Republicans have had issues

588
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: with the President's approach on trade. So it's very popular

589
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: with some Democrats in this country who like to see

590
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: the kind of protectionist measures the presence and threatening. So

591
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: there is no unified message either within the Republican party

592
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 1: or within the Democratic one at the moment. It's kind

593
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: of a state by state, industry by industry difference of

594
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: opinions here. We're also going to have an ally of

595
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: the President, Mark Vetta to Republican congressions in North Carolina

596
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: is going to be on the show to talk to us, uh,

597
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: not just about this but the immigration debate right now

598
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 1: and what he's hearing from the President. Margaret, just a

599
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,280
Speaker 1: little bit more on Senator Marco Rubio, because on Tuesday,

600
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: remember he said that he wanted to push for what

601
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 1: he described as a veto proved congressional action to check

602
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:23,760
Speaker 1: the Trump administration's deal to save the Chinese telco company

603
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: a ZTE. Then the Senate Banking Committee approved an amendment

604
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: from Senator Chris Van Hollend of Maryland, the Democrat, to

605
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: limit the president's ability to remove sanctions from the Chinese telco.

606
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 1: Is this demonstrating that the president's actions are going to

607
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: be limited, perhaps not just on China trade. Well, certainly, um,

608
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: there are those in Congress who would like to try

609
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 1: to limit the president's actions on this. Yes. Uh. Margaret Warner,

610
00:34:55,719 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: the former telecom ceo who's the current Democratic Senate from Virginia,

611
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: was really passionate about it when I spoke to him

612
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 1: last week, that this is a national security issue and

613
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 1: Congress is very concerned about what the president might even

614
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: be considering doing here. Of course, the question is with

615
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,760
Speaker 1: the president if if the public posture is actually reflected

616
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 1: in what they're considering doing policy wise, and that's not clear.

617
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 1: And just finally, h James Clapper of course has been

618
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 1: back and forth with his comments about the president, but

619
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 1: he says he did not say that Donald Trump keeps

620
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 1: saying what he said, What is this about? This is

621
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: like a rhetorical whiplash. Yes. Well, James Clapper, of course

622
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 1: was the Director of National Intelligence UH during the election

623
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: and saw first hand he's written in this new book

624
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: details about what they were seeing behind the scenes. Would

625
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 1: Russian election meddling. What he has said was trying and

626
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 1: that he got criticized by the President for was his

627
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: uh assessment here in terms of how to refer to

628
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: what the President is calling a spy within his campaign,

629
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 1: but which others would just simply call someone who was

630
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 1: an informant to the FBI, um someone who's been in

631
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:16,880
Speaker 1: contact both with FBI officials and the Trump campaign on

632
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 1: the issue of election medaling. The President says you that

633
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: that Clapper defended his point of view in some ways

634
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 1: by admitting there by Clapper said, no, no, I was

635
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 1: talking about trying to spy on the Russians and what

636
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 1: the Russians were doing. This is a war of words,

637
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: but it's really just being put in the context partisan politics. Alright, Well,

638
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: we're gonna be listening. Thank you very much, Margaret Brennan.

639
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: You can hear Margaret Brennan this weekend on Bloomberg Radio.

640
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 1: Listen to Face the Nation Sunday two pm in New York, Washington,

641
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 1: d C. And now Bloomberg one oh six one Boston,

642
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: New Gradport. That's Face the Nation. This Sunday at two

643
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

644
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, or

645
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:06,439
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio