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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 1: joined as always by Beau mcbrair. We're going to give

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Speaker 1: you a betting preview of the Valspar Championship, taking a

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Speaker 1: closer look at the course and the field, and giving

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Speaker 1: you some of our favorite plays. We always start with

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Speaker 1: a quick recap of the previous week's event, and this

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Speaker 1: year's Players Championship was a barnburner. But before we get

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Speaker 1: into the recap, I don't know. I generally enjoy the

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Speaker 1: West Coast Swing a little more than the Florida Swing,

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Speaker 1: mostly because I love seeing the pros play Tory Pines, Pebble.

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Speaker 2: Bh Riviera.

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Speaker 1: But this year we have had a lot of runaways

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Speaker 1: on the West Coast Swing and the Florida Swing this year,

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Speaker 1: Holy moly, the drama has been incredible the last few weeks,

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Speaker 1: final round meltdowns, Steely's Sunday performances, dramatic finishes, some really

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Speaker 1: compelling on difficult courses. I thoroughly enjoyed the Florida Swing

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Speaker 1: this year, Bob, how about you?

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Speaker 3: It's been everything and more that we could have expected.

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Speaker 3: It's riveting golf, It's just great television. Players Championship obviously

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Speaker 3: the gold standard when it comes to televised golf, and

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Speaker 3: it kind of just leads us down this path. We

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Speaker 3: have one more week left in the Florida Swing and

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Speaker 3: then it's getting ready for the Masters, which is I

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Speaker 3: would think the best product for golf on TV because

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Speaker 3: they've just got it so figured out. But the Florida

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Speaker 3: Swing has been captivating. I have obviously enjoyed some success

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Speaker 3: with betting on the Florida Swing, but at the same time,

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Speaker 3: California wasn't that bad to us either. It's just they're

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Speaker 3: so different, but they're so great in their own way.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not gonna pick apples versus oranges, or oranges

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Speaker 3: versus other oranges because Southern California and Florida both grow oranges.

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Speaker 3: For us. Yeah, they're two different, great animals, two different

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Speaker 3: ways to enjoy professional golf at the highest level. And

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Speaker 3: it's just the Florida Swing has been utterly spectacular this season,

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Speaker 3: and so we're all privileged to enjoy it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well said, it's been edge of your seat on

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Speaker 1: a Sunday afternoon type of stuff. So let's quickly recap

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Speaker 1: the Players Championship. Ludwig Oberg opened with a sixty nine

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Speaker 1: and a sixty three, and after shooting a seventy one

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, he took a three shot lead into the

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Speaker 1: final round. Ludwig was in the driver's seat, but at

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Speaker 1: TPC sawgrasp bow. The driver's seat isn't always very comfortable.

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Speaker 1: Oberg wasn't especially sharp on the front nine Sunday, but

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Speaker 1: he was even par after ten holes and still led

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Speaker 1: by two.

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Speaker 2: But that's when the wheels came off. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: After good drive on the par five eleventh, Oberg flared

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Speaker 1: his approach shot into the water. He ended up with

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Speaker 1: a bogie six. Then on the par four twelfth, Oberg

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Speaker 1: pulled his drive badly into the water, wound up making

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Speaker 1: a slot double bogie, and suddenly there were a lot

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Speaker 1: of cats sipping at the saucer. Matt Fitzpatrick, Xanderschoffli, Cameron Young,

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Speaker 1: Robert McIntyre, Sudarshan Yellow, Miraju more on him.

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Speaker 2: Later nailed it.

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Speaker 1: It ultimately came down to Fitzpatrick and Young, who were

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Speaker 1: paired together. Fitzpatrick was up one with two holes to play.

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Speaker 1: He made a routine part of the par three seventeenth,

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Speaker 1: hitting to the middle of the island green and two putting,

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Speaker 1: Cameron Young was more aggressive with his t shot, hit

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Speaker 1: a sandwich to within ten feet, rolled in the birdie

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Speaker 1: to tie things, and on the par four eighteenth, Young

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Speaker 1: hit a man at three hundred and seventy five yard

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Speaker 1: drive that left him with just ninety nine yards in.

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Speaker 1: It is the longest drive on the eighteenth hole at

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Speaker 1: Sawgrass since the introduction of the shot link system in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and four. Fitzpatrick left his drive out too

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Speaker 1: far to the right, found the pine straw he had

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Speaker 1: to lay up short of the green, while Young was

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Speaker 1: able to hit an aggressive approach that rolled onto the

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Speaker 1: back fringe just fifteen feet fet in the hall, Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 1: chipped to about eight feet. Cameron Young had a chance

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Speaker 1: to win with a birdie he couldn't convert, but Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 1: just missed his par potts, and Young, with an eight

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Speaker 1: inch pot that he admitted was one of the nervier

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Speaker 1: putts he's ever had in his life, rolled it in

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Speaker 1: for his second PGA Tour victory. He's been runner up

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Speaker 1: many times before, but Cameron Young finished the job this

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Speaker 1: time and want to win it was Young earned himself

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Speaker 1: four point five million dollars automatic PGA Tour status for

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Speaker 1: the next five years, exemptions to all four majors for

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Speaker 1: the next three years, and bo is very own locker

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Speaker 1: in the TPCU Sawgrass Champions locker room and by the way,

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Speaker 1: a hat tip top c Sawgrass not one of my

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Speaker 1: very favorite PGA Tour venues, but it was a great

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Speaker 1: test and it provided some fantastic drama on Sunday. I

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Speaker 1: love this quote from Cameron Young about tpc Sawgrass. He

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Speaker 1: was being interviewed on Serious XM'SPGA Tour Radio after the

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Speaker 1: win and Fred Alberts said to him, seems like every

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Speaker 1: hole on this course asks a question, and Cam Young

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Speaker 1: Cam Yung said, yeah, how do you want to make

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Speaker 1: a six BO. You had Luvig Ohberg as your hard

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Speaker 1: rock bet of the week last week that didn't work out,

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Speaker 1: but you also had Cam Young at thirty two to one,

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Speaker 1: and even more impressive than that, you had you touted

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Speaker 1: Sudarshin Yellow Miraju last week, who went off else did

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Speaker 1: not a soul five hundred and seventy five to one

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Speaker 1: and he was something like ten to one just to

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Speaker 1: finish top twenty.

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Speaker 2: BO.

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Speaker 1: Give me your impressions from the players Championship and take

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Speaker 1: a little victory lap on Young and Yellow Miraju.

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Speaker 3: The Players Championship is one of my favorites because it's

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Speaker 3: a fair test of golf. You don't get a proto

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Speaker 3: type player that wins every year. It's it's completely random

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Speaker 3: because you're gonna get a lot of birdies when when

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Speaker 3: guys hit good shots, they're gonna make birdies at Sawgrass.

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Speaker 3: But if you have bad shots, how are you gonna

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Speaker 3: make six? That is app That is as appropriate an

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Speaker 3: answer as Cam Young could have made. Because if you

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Speaker 3: make a good shot, you're gonna score really well at Sawgrass.

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Speaker 3: But right on the other side, if you make a

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Speaker 3: bad shot like what we saw, Ludwig Olberg was in

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Speaker 3: cruise control off the tee for three and a half rounds,

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Speaker 3: and everybody's commenting about, oh, Ludwig's first and distance inaccuracy

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Speaker 3: off the te Ludwig is the best ball striker in

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Speaker 3: the world. Ludwig cannot be stopped and his very like

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Speaker 3: he was almost programmed to hit a great long iron

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Speaker 3: shot on eleven to make birdier eagle to put that

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Speaker 3: thing away, and instead a pure block about thirty yards

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Speaker 3: right of his target into the middle of that lake,

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Speaker 3: and then on twelve off the tee barely made contact

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Speaker 3: with the ball first of all, and dead pull left

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Speaker 3: thirty yards into the lake, not even remotely close to

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Speaker 3: where he was aiming. That's what sawgrass can do to you,

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Speaker 3: because the pressure mounts, because you know if you're not perfect,

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Speaker 3: you're not going to win. And that's what I love

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Speaker 3: about that championship because it's fair. It's fair, and it's

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Speaker 3: very penalizing and you just have to survive it. Cam

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Speaker 3: Young survived the Players Championship and I was I was

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Speaker 3: keen on him because his short game has shown so

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Speaker 3: many strides this season. His ball striking is still every

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Speaker 3: bit of what it was, and he used all those weapons.

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Speaker 3: He made the fewest bogies of anybody in the field

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Speaker 3: this week. That was huge. And for Yellow Moraju, I

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Speaker 3: just saw a guy who was accurate. I saw a

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Speaker 3: guy who doesn't make too many mistakes. He's an adequate

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Speaker 3: short game. He's an OK putter, but he's a straight

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Speaker 3: hitter with enough ball speed to really make a difference

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Speaker 3: when you need power. He had it. He just didn't

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Speaker 3: make hit fourteen or fifteen greens. On Sunday, That's what

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Speaker 3: I was talking about last week was Yellow Maraju when

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Speaker 3: he won on the Corn Ferry Tour last year, had

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Speaker 3: a round where he hit every fairway and every green

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Speaker 3: in the same round. That's what I was looking for

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Speaker 3: at Sagress. Because you've missed the fairway, you're done missed.

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Speaker 3: He missed the fairway, you can't hit the green, and

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Speaker 3: then of course you're not making birdies. Yello. Miraju didn't

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Speaker 3: beat himself too often. Top five finish for a guy

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Speaker 3: who's that deep on the on the roster. Basically, he

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Speaker 3: was making his fifth PGA Tour start ever, and now

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Speaker 3: he's made four cuts out of five and everybody in

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Speaker 3: their mom knows who he is now. I guess one

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Speaker 3: week early, it's just it's warrants a victory lap. I

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Speaker 3: feel good, but he's already withdrawn from this week's championship.

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Speaker 3: So I guess we're just gonna have to take this

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Speaker 3: one week victory lap and business as usual, try to

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Speaker 3: find the next long shot winner.

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Speaker 2: I was eager to see what the odds were gonna be.

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Speaker 3: They were as short as seventy three to one before

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Speaker 3: he withdrew.

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Speaker 1: Seventy three to one Okay, all right, when I first

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Speaker 1: looked at the odds, he was already out.

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Speaker 2: But that that is interesting.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I appreciate a guy who taught himself the swing

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Speaker 1: with YouTube videos as someone who you know. When I

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Speaker 1: was struggling with bunker play last summer, I must have

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Speaker 1: watched like seven different YouTube videos and I'm getting out

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Speaker 1: of bonker.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, and I totally I can relate.

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Speaker 3: So that's the difference with this show is you got

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Speaker 3: a guy in me who watches way too much golf

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Speaker 3: and I and yes, I do watch LPGA Tour a lot.

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Speaker 3: I watched the Corn Fairy Tour a lot. I watched

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Speaker 3: the DP World Tour a lot. I even watch live

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Speaker 3: golf sometimes just for funzies. So if you're looking for

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Speaker 3: a long shot, I probably already know who they are,

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Speaker 3: and if I don't, I'm probably going to look into

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Speaker 3: them if I hear their name and I don't recognize it.

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Speaker 3: I've seen Yellow Maraju play for a few years now.

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Speaker 3: He's got a lot of talent, and more importantly, upstairs

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Speaker 3: between the ears where it's most important to win at

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Speaker 3: golf tournament, it's he's a smart player, and that's what

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Speaker 3: is really going to carry him through a really lengthy careers.

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Speaker 3: He's got a good head on his shoulders. He's a

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Speaker 3: mature player for his age twenty four. Going out there

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Speaker 3: top five at the Players in your first appearance.

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Speaker 2: Nobody does well the Players the first time amazing. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's amazing.

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Speaker 3: Hats off to him for making me look smart. But

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Speaker 3: that's all about him rising to the occasion and even

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Speaker 3: exceeding his own expectations.

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Speaker 1: And now we come to the final stop on the

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Speaker 1: Florida Swing, the Valspar Championship. After two signature events and

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Speaker 1: the Players Championship over the last three weeks, Valspar.

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Speaker 2: Is a bit of a step down.

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Speaker 1: Some of the big names are sitting this one out,

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Speaker 1: but it's still a pretty good field with some stars

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Speaker 1: among the one hundred and thirty three entrance. The Valspar

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Speaker 1: Championship will be played at the Copperhead Course at the

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Speaker 1: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida, which

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Speaker 1: is on the golf coast side of Florida, not too

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Speaker 1: far from Tampa and Saint Petersburg. The Copperhead Course is

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Speaker 1: a par seventy one that plays two seven, three hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty two yards. Like the other courses on the

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Speaker 1: Florida Swing, Copperhead is a butt kicker. The fairways are narrow,

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Speaker 1: the greens are smaller than average. Water comes into play

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Speaker 1: on nine holes. The rough can be penal. This is

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Speaker 1: you nick PGA Tour course and that it has part

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Speaker 1: five par threes and with four par fives, that means

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Speaker 1: they're only nine par fours. For the par threes are

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Speaker 1: two hundred yards or longer and the shortest one is

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Speaker 1: still one hundred and ninety five yards. Copperhead opens with

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Speaker 1: a par five and it's the shortest one on the

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Speaker 1: course at five hundred and sixty yards, so players really

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Speaker 1: want to get that opening birdie to kickstart their rounds.

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Speaker 1: The three hole finishing stretch at Copperhead is known as

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Speaker 1: the Snake Pit and it is a tough test. Sixteenth

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00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,040
Speaker 1: holes of four hundred and seventy five yard par four

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00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,959
Speaker 1: with a narrow fairway and water running all the way

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Speaker 1: down the right side of the whole. Par three seventeenth

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00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,800
Speaker 1: is two hundred and fifteen yards with a green completely

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Speaker 1: surrounded by bunkers. Par four eighteenth is four hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty five yards with fairway bunkers, left and right of

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Speaker 1: the target landing area, and Copperhead has some very difficult

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Speaker 1: Poetravalis greens whether should be gorgeous this week, though no

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Speaker 1: rain in the forecast for Palm Harbor, just a lot

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Speaker 1: of sun, temperatures in the seventies all week. The winds

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Speaker 1: are expected to blow ten to fifteen miles an hour

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Speaker 1: the first two days, five to ten miles an hour

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Speaker 1: on the weekend.

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Speaker 2: With no rain.

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Speaker 1: These greens could get pretty fast. We've seen fast greens

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Speaker 1: throughout the Florida Swing. Victor Hoblind is the defending champion.

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Speaker 1: He was eleven under par last year, beating Justin Thomas

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Speaker 1: by a stroke. Peter mal Noddy was a surprise valspar

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Speaker 1: winner in twenty twenty four with the score of minus twelve.

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Speaker 1: He beat Cameron Young by two shots that year. Taylor

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00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:34,680
Speaker 1: Moore won here in twenty twenty three with the score

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Speaker 1: of ten under par, and Sam Burns won back to

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Speaker 1: back valspar Is in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Bow your thoughts on the copper Head course and the

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Speaker 1: types of the attributes you're going to zero in on

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Speaker 1: this week when handicapping the field.

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Speaker 3: It's a lot more of approach game. Obviously, good drives

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Speaker 3: gained is huge here because the fairways are narrow, and

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Speaker 3: if you're out of position here, it's really hard to

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Speaker 3: avoid the bogies. You're not looking to double bogies like

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Speaker 3: last week, because it's not overly difficult in that way.

249
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Speaker 3: It's just the birdie chances are few and far between here,

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Speaker 3: and especially in the snake pit finishing that round. There's

251
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Speaker 3: gonna be a lot of stuff can go down on

252
00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,199
Speaker 3: the back nine on Sunday at this Championship, just the

253
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Speaker 3: same as the players, because that snake bit is extremely difficult.

254
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Speaker 3: All three of those holes will be playing overpar even

255
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Speaker 3: with really good scoring conditions. That those three holes are

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00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,760
Speaker 3: absolutely brutal. And to come down the stretch and try

257
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:32,079
Speaker 3: to win a tournament with those three holes staring in

258
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Speaker 3: face is never easy. I'm big on approach. I'm big

259
00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:38,880
Speaker 3: on good drives gained and then scrambling bogie avoidance, a

260
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Speaker 3: little bit of the proximity on approach one seventy five

261
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Speaker 3: and above. A lot of long approaches here. Not really

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Speaker 3: as many forced layups off the tee as last week,

263
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Speaker 3: but you're still going to get a lot of importance

264
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Speaker 3: on finding the fairway here, so accurate players again who

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Speaker 3: may be on a hot streak, and I am considering

266
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Speaker 3: these greens to be a tri through Bermuda, even though

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Speaker 3: they're Poetryvialis is close enough to what you would get

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00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:06,280
Speaker 3: as pure a Bermuda as you're going to see for

269
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Speaker 3: putting greens. Now that everybody's pretty much gone to overseateed

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Speaker 3: Rye with the other Florida courses, so filtering for bermuda

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Speaker 3: putting last twenty four rounds recent success, I want to

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Speaker 3: see guys coming in hot because this course is going

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Speaker 3: to be challenging enough.

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Speaker 1: Now, before we get to the odds for the Falspark Championship,

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00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,040
Speaker 1: I just want to tell everyone how much I appreciate

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00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:31,200
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00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:35,280
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278
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279
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00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:50,040
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281
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Speaker 1: Promo Code Pros terms apply seaside for details. All right,

290
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,320
Speaker 1: but let's get to the odds for the Valspar Championships.

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00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,200
Speaker 1: Andrew Schaffley coming off a good week at the Players Championship.

292
00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:39,280
Speaker 1: He's plus one. He's plus ten seventy five. Matt Fitzpatrick

293
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,480
Speaker 1: is plus fourteen seventy five. Defending champ Victor Hovlin is

294
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:48,960
Speaker 1: nineteen to one. Akshay Battiaz plus nineteen fifty. Patrick Cantley

295
00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 1: is twenty two to one. Justin Thomas and Jacob Bridgeman

296
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,960
Speaker 1: twenty two and a half to one. Jordan Speith is

297
00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,800
Speaker 1: twenty five to one. Brooks Koepka twenty six to one.

298
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,160
Speaker 1: Ben Griffin twenty nine to one, JJ Spawned thirty to one,

299
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:05,160
Speaker 1: Corey Connors thirty three to one, and Nikolai Hoyguard thirty

300
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,600
Speaker 1: six to one. Any when you have your eye on

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00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 1: from this group, So.

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00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 3: Let's get the top guy out of the way here,

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00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,120
Speaker 3: the crown jewel, the guy that's gonna be on all

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00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 3: the marketing stuff is Xander Schaffley. He was number one

305
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 3: in my model, but not as much of a gap

306
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,640
Speaker 3: above the rest of the field as I expected. And

307
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:25,680
Speaker 3: the one thing that stood out to me was his

308
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,000
Speaker 3: off the tee game, which is very important here to

309
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 3: find fairways, has been pretty erratic this season. He's still

310
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 3: getting into the swing of things. He's still the best

311
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 3: ball striker in this field by a long shot. He's

312
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,040
Speaker 3: a great short game. He's got everything in spades except

313
00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 3: for off the tee. He worries me because he's outside

314
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 3: the top one hundred and good drives gained in this field,

315
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:49,200
Speaker 3: which is not a great field compared to the last couple.

316
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,160
Speaker 3: Xanderschaffley at ten seventy five is a little short from

317
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 3: my liking. Do I think he has the chance to win?

318
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 3: Of course, he's the headliner. Fitzpatrick is going to be

319
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 3: another popular choice. I'm just not on him here. I

320
00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 3: might be mistaken. He looked really good last week during

321
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 3: near pulled that rabbit out of the hat to completely

322
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,679
Speaker 3: tank all the money that I want and everybody who

323
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,159
Speaker 3: tailed me. It would have been a complete tragedy of

324
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,160
Speaker 3: fits had won that. No offense to all the fits

325
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,840
Speaker 3: is out there, including yourself. But I was rooting so

326
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 3: hard against Matt Fitzpatrick last week. Hovelin's interesting because he

327
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:25,719
Speaker 3: just won last year. That was more of a surprise.

328
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,040
Speaker 3: He won is an eighty to one long shot last

329
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 3: year because he was scuffling and just randomly won at

330
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,080
Speaker 3: the vallast Bar. I don't know if he can find

331
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:37,400
Speaker 3: that lightning strike again here. My guy is Jacob Bridgman.

332
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 3: This guy is the hottest golfer that he's already won once.

333
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:45,480
Speaker 3: He's he's playing most consistently good golf on the entire

334
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,879
Speaker 3: tour right now. That says a lot because there's a

335
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,720
Speaker 3: lot of guys playing great golf this season. Jacob Bridgman's

336
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 3: had been at the top of every leaderboard this year.

337
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 3: Every single one this guy shows up makes putts. His

338
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 3: ball striking is middle of the pack, but his strength

339
00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,400
Speaker 3: is on approach, and then once he gets on the green,

340
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 3: every putt looks like it's going in. So I'm starting

341
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 3: my card at plus twenty two to fifty Jacob Bridgman,

342
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 3: and it's a very confident bet because he's number two

343
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,600
Speaker 3: in my model and every single stat is green, which

344
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 3: we like.

345
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 2: Love that call.

346
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,480
Speaker 1: I mean, he just remains red hot. Fifth last week

347
00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 1: at the Players. He's finished top twenty and all seven

348
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 1: PGA Tour events he's played.

349
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 3: Yes he's hot.

350
00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, that includes that win at the Genesis, three other

351
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 1: top tens, and he was third by the way at

352
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 1: last year's Vals Bar. So I love the call Bow

353
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 1: and look, there is something to be said for a

354
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 1: lot of these other top guys like Schoffley. Really nice

355
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 1: combination of course fit and recent form. He was seventh

356
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,480
Speaker 1: at the Genesis Invitational, twenty fourth at the Arnold Palmer,

357
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,680
Speaker 1: third last week at the Players. Shoffley has made three

358
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,679
Speaker 1: trips to Copperhead and has finished no worse than twelfth

359
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,479
Speaker 1: in any of them, only had one top five finish here,

360
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,959
Speaker 1: but ranks twenty first on strokes gain an approach twelfth

361
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 1: in strokes gain total. I get the concern about the

362
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 1: driving though you're right, he has not been pinpoint with

363
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 1: the driver so far. That's kind of why Fitzpatrick is

364
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 1: interesting this week. Bo, Like, I think the appeal is

365
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 1: undeniable on a track like Copperhead to get a guy

366
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: who does have a really good all around game and

367
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,119
Speaker 1: his seventh and driving accuracy. He's not going to get

368
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 1: himself into trouble off the tee. He is outside the

369
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 1: top one hundred and strokes gain putting, but he's been

370
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 1: pretty much very good in every other facet and played

371
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 1: extremely well at Sagrass.

372
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,160
Speaker 2: But what about Aksha Batilla.

373
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 1: So he took a week off after winning the Arnold

374
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 1: Palmer Championship, played splendidly at Bayhill two weeks ago, and

375
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,879
Speaker 1: Batia's been pretty red hot ever since the Phoenix Opened,

376
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 1: with three top tens in his last five events and

377
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,680
Speaker 1: no worse than a sixteenth place finish dating back to

378
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 1: the Phoenix Open. So he's played the valaspar three times,

379
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 1: missed the cut the first two, but finished seventeenth and

380
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four.

381
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure it's a great course fit. Honestly,

382
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 3: the two miss cuts and then seventeenth was his best

383
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,879
Speaker 3: finished two years ago doesn't really invite me. But at

384
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 3: the same time, ox Sheebatia has taken the next step.

385
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 3: His game is completely transcended where he was two years ago,

386
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 3: even when he finished seventeenth here, and definitely better than

387
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 3: he when he was, what nineteen twenty years old when

388
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 3: he missed the cut the first two times. I don't

389
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,680
Speaker 3: hate ok Sebatia. I really like how he fits this

390
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 3: course on paper. His past results here give me a

391
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 3: little pause. But what mainly gives me Pauser less than

392
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 3: twenty to one odds on he and Fitzpatrick. Honestly, it's

393
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 3: the odds. I don't get a lot of value there

394
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 3: because I like Bridgeman so much more than both of

395
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 3: those guys, and I'm getting more value for Bridgeman. On

396
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 3: top of that, it was really hard to look at

397
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 3: those guys that are shorter odds, and I was like,

398
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,399
Speaker 3: I think Bergmann's gonna just beat all these guys, all

399
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 3: these guys in the top tier. I think Jacob Bridgman

400
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 3: is a playing better this entire season, and b he's

401
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 3: a great fit for this golf course. So I must

402
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,440
Speaker 3: be missing something because we're gonna get a lot of

403
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 3: people to tell you to bet on Jacob Bridgeman this

404
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 3: week for obvious reasons. But I'm telling you that I

405
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 3: might be the most confident in him that he might

406
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 3: win this tournament at plus twenty two to fifty nothing

407
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 3: against any of these guys in this tier. I just

408
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,879
Speaker 3: think the value is not there compared to what you

409
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 3: get with him.

410
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't you miss the days when we could get

411
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 1: auctionha at fifty sixty seventy one.

412
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 3: Twenty one in San Antonio a couple of years ago.

413
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 3: I had him at fifty five to one. It was amazing,

414
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 3: that's right.

415
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,199
Speaker 2: So you're more of a Justin Thomas guy than I am.

416
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 2: Just generally.

417
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 1: He's coming off in eighth place finish at the Players

418
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: Championship might have been in contention late Sunday if not

419
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: for a triple bogee early in his round on Saturday.

420
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: JT is a very good track record at the Valspar.

421
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 1: He was runner up last year, third and twenty twenty two.

422
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 1: He's been playing this tournament every year and he's finished

423
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 1: top fifteen in four of the last five years. Of course,

424
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 1: for the course, I can't talk you into Justin Thomas

425
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 1: this week. Bough Well, No, we've seen him do well

426
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 1: once this season. He had his first event at Bayhill,

427
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 1: missed the cut by a long shot. He was dead last,

428
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 1: and then he did really well at Sawgrass, but he

429
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: always does. He always does well here. I think he's

430
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: a good top ten bet.

431
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: But again he's at the same exact line as a

432
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 3: guy who's played out of his mind top twenty in

433
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 3: all seven events this year, Jacob Bridgeman. Again, it's a

434
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 3: value proposition. Do I like Justin Thomas at vals Bart,

435
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 3: of course? Do I like him better than the guy

436
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 3: with the same odds he's playing better golf all season? No,

437
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 3: not even close. So again it's just this entire tier

438
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 3: for met a lot of guys I like, but one

439
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 3: guy that I absolutely love, and I will be going

440
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 3: every angle that I can bet Jacob Bridgeman this week

441
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 3: will be bet because the rest of my car as

442
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 3: a who's who have long shots in little little sprinklings

443
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 3: of bets, because this is Jacob Bridgeman's week.

444
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 2: To me, I'd love to hear that. Let's look at

445
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 2: more of the vals Bar odds.

446
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 1: The Heath Thigala is thirty seven to one, Nick Taylor's

447
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 1: thirty nine to one. Taylor Pendrith is forty to one.

448
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 1: Rio hissatsone is forty two to one, Kegan Bradley forty

449
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 1: six to one, Davis Thompson fifty to one, Alex Smalley

450
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: fifty three to one, Wyndham Clark fifty five to one,

451
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,880
Speaker 1: Austin Smotherman, Aaron Rye and Rasmus Hoygard are fifty six

452
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:38,479
Speaker 1: to one. And Ricky But are we supposed to pronounce

453
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: it Castilio? I think everyone's saying Ricky Castillio. It looks

454
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 1: like Ricky Castillo to me.

455
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 3: So that's the thing is I think he says Castilio.

456
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 3: He's from southern California, went to University of Florida. Yeah,

457
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 3: if you're saying the Spanish pronunciation, that's Castillo. But I

458
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 3: think he says Castilio. So I guess we're supposed to

459
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 3: say Ricky Castillio.

460
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: I guess mister Castilio and Matt McCarty are both sixty

461
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: to one. So how about these mid range options? BO,

462
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: does anyone stand out? Uh?

463
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: No, honestly, one of them stands out, and it's Ricky Castilio,

464
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 3: and I have him at sixty to one, and he's

465
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 3: going to get a nice little bet from me because

466
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: I just like the player, and he's coming in out

467
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: of this whole tier. He's the only one in the

468
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: top twenty in my model. This entire tier is completely

469
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 3: out of my model. If unless I scroll a way down.

470
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 3: Ricky Castillio is number five in my model, So he's

471
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: going to get a bet from me. And he's playing

472
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 3: good golf this year. He's been a solid player, consistent player,

473
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 3: and again he's an accurate ball striker. You have to

474
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 3: be accurate in this Florida swing. If you're missing fairways

475
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 3: in Florida, you're not going to have a very good time.

476
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 3: Ricky Castilio is an accurate player.

477
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 2: And so I like him.

478
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: I might have been interested in sahithagala I. He's played

479
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: well this season. He finished seventh at the Vlsbourne twenty

480
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: twenty two. But I was bird dogging him on Sunday

481
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: because I had bet him for a top ten and

482
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: was hoping he could get get me a back door.

483
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 3: He almost got you to day on that almost got

484
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 3: you there, he.

485
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: Did, but bo the wheels came off for him.

486
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 1: On the back nine Sunday at Sagres, he had a

487
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: four hole stretch where he made bogeer worse on every hole.

488
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 1: Then he made a couple of bogies on sixteen and seventeen,

489
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: but made another bogie in eighteen when he drove it

490
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 1: into the pine straw.

491
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 2: Like I'm out on him.

492
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 1: He just hit way too many, like alarmingly bad shots

493
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 1: on the back nine Sunday for me to back him

494
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: this week.

495
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 3: You think Xander scares you off the tee, is terrifying.

496
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 3: Off the tee, he's a great scrambler, He's got one

497
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 3: of the best short games in the whole world. But

498
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: off the tee he's terrifying. And this is not the

499
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:49,239
Speaker 3: place where you want to take a chance on guy

500
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 3: who can miss his target by a wide margin many

501
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 3: many times in a row and has to play the

502
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: Jordan's speed game. He's got a lot of Jordan's speeth

503
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 3: in him, which I doesn't give me a lot of

504
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 3: confidence at the copper Head Course.

505
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: No, I feel better at longer odds with Rio Hissatsenen

506
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 1: forty two to one, three top tens this year, coming

507
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: off the thirteen at the Players Championship, and he was

508
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: fourth of the vals bar last year.

509
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, he needs to ditch that water drinking routine. Because

510
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: it's not working because everything is green with hyssatsine on

511
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 3: ball striking, He's an amazing ball striker. He's a very

512
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 3: accurate player, but he is dead last in this entire

513
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 3: field and putting on bermuda, which something's got to give. Like,

514
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: this guy's giving himself so many chances to pust good

515
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 3: scores and just can't make a putt. So I think

516
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 3: he's got to try some different sip technique or maybe

517
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 3: swallow it faster. I don't know this. He's got to

518
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,399
Speaker 3: figure out the flat stick before I can bet him.

519
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, he's he's definitely gonna be there. I think

520
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 3: he could finish the top ten or top twenty here.

521
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 3: But until he figures out how to putt on these

522
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 3: bermuda greens, I can't. I can't good conscience bet.

523
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: And speaking of not figuring out how to pot, Austin

524
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: Smotherman currently leads the PGA Tour and strokes gained on

525
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: approach twenty eighth and strokes gained.

526
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: Off the tee.

527
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: Just not a good putter outside the top hundred strokes

528
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 1: gain please, not a get shipper either.

529
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, so short game troubles kind of steer me away.

530
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 2: This week. We'll talk long shots in just a moment,

531
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 2: but first.

532
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,440
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533
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,320
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535
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536
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537
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539
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,359
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540
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541
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: After being all over our Sedarshan Yellow Miraju last week,

542
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,719
Speaker 1: I know people are anxious to hear which long shots

543
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: you like this week.

544
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 3: The people have to know, right, I have a quartette

545
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 3: of long shots this week because I kind of felt

546
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 3: that this was going to be the case. I mean,

547
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 3: some like the reputation of me throwing darts and pulling

548
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 3: out random long shots. There's a little bit more science

549
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 3: into it. So let's start with Bud Colly at eighty

550
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 3: two to one. Just a really solid ball striker and

551
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 3: not the greatest short game either, but at one hundred

552
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 3: and twenty or eighty two to one, that's baked in.

553
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 3: I do like Bud Callie because of his ball striking.

554
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: He's a really solid player. Came in number six in

555
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 3: my model top ten and strokes game tee to green

556
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 3: in this field, number twelve on approach overall. And let's

557
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: see what's that other stat Yeah, putting thirteenth in putting

558
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 3: on Bermuda. That's important. He's just a great all around

559
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: player and I don't see many things against him. He's

560
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 3: kind of middle of the pack off the tee accuracy wise,

561
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 3: but I think that's more of a just a product

562
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 3: of him not playing a lot of golf. Uh. The

563
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 3: one thing that is bad for Bud Cally is his

564
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 3: his approach over two hundred yards is pretty bad. But

565
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 3: hopefully we can get some good results out of Bud Cally.

566
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: Eighty two to one's nice at one hundred to one.

567
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: Is a guy that I touted last year. It didn't

568
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 3: really materialize too often. But William Mao MoU w. William

569
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 3: Mao is another guy who is just a straight hitter.

570
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 3: He comes in another guy pretty highly rated in my

571
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: in my model I just like the I like the

572
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 3: way he's coming out there one hundred to one for

573
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 3: a guy who's just a good, solid player, and this

574
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 3: is he plays better on tougher golf courses. And I've

575
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 3: already talked about this guy this year a couple of times.

576
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 3: David Ford, the rookie out of North Carolina. He's going

577
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: out one hundred and twenty one. Not a lot of

578
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 3: data on him. It's not a model pick. This kid

579
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 3: is good and he's going to eventually crack one where

580
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 3: he plays four good rounds, and he's got the talent

581
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 3: to absolutely go and chase a win here in this

582
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 3: kind of field. So David Ford one hundred and twenty one,

583
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 3: and my last guy at one hundred and seventy one,

584
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 3: not Blades Brown. We're going with Dan Brown, the Englishman.

585
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 3: Dan Brown is one hundred and seventy to one. He

586
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: beats Blades Brown in every single category at longer odds

587
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 3: except for chipping and putting. And I mean you could say, oh, yeah,

588
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 3: par three scoring, yeah that's important here, but everything else

589
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 3: it's Dan Brown over Blades Brown, the elder statesman from

590
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 3: England over the eighteen year old from America.

591
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: I've got a few two. I'm kind of intrigued by

592
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: Mac Meisner at seventy four to one. He's finished top

593
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: thirty at the Valspar the last two years, and he's

594
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: good with the iron, especially the long irons, and I

595
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: think long irons are going to be critical this week.

596
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 1: Steven Jaeger is one hundred and five to one. He's

597
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,479
Speaker 1: finished twenty seventh and thirty sixth in his last two

598
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: visits to copper Head.

599
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: Not bad.

600
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: Currently ranks second on the tour in par three scoring

601
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: and Bo, we've got those five par threes on this course.

602
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: But do you know who currently leads the tour in

603
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:24,479
Speaker 2: par three scoring?

604
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 1: Yes?

605
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 4: I do.

606
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 2: It's Blades Brown and he's.

607
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: One hundred and ten to one, and maybe his third

608
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: place finish in Puerto Rico two weeks ago gave him

609
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 1: some confidence heading into the Vellspar and BO I think

610
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: he needs to finish solo fifth or better to get

611
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: some sort of special tour exemption that keeps him around

612
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 1: other than sponsors exemption.

613
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: So big, big week for Blades Brown. Hopefully he can

614
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 2: ride the momentum from that good showing in Puerto Rico.

615
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 3: I worry about his ball striking, though, on a course

616
00:31:57,880 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 3: like this.

617
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: That's true. Valspar is a challenge for a guy who

618
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 2: might not have it all together. The ball striking so bo.

619
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: My hard rock bet of the week this week is

620
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: it's actually Battia a hard rock bet. Illinois had him

621
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 1: at twenty five to one on Monday afternoon, and I

622
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: couldn't resist a hot golfer at that price.

623
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: What is your hard rock better the week.

624
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: It's got to be Jacob Bridgeman at plus twenty two

625
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: to fifty because I'm going to take him every which

626
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 3: way possible. He's the sixth or seventh best odds on

627
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: this board and I think he's far and away the

628
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 3: favorite for me. So twenty twenty two and a half

629
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 3: to one for my outright favorite's that's good handicapping. That's

630
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 3: a perfect hard rock bet of the week. And if

631
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: you haven't signed up with hard Rock Bet yet, there's

632
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,280
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633
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,280
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634
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,920
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635
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,840
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636
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637
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638
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639
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640
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,040
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641
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,400
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642
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643
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644
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645
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646
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00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply.

649
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 5: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to

650
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 5: three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you

651
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 5: know as a gambling problem, laws help called one eight

652
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 5: hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred

653
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 5: gambler In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

654
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 1: What does the rest of your early betting card look

655
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: like aside from Jacob Bridgeman, Well.

656
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 3: Bridgeman's getting all of the my and then I got

657
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: a nice little sprinkling on Ricky Castillio at sixty to one,

658
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 3: Bud Caley eighty two to one, William Mau one hundred

659
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 3: to one, David Ford hundred and twenty to one, and

660
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 3: Dan Not Blades Brown one hundred and seventy to one.

661
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 1: It's in addition to Akha Batia twenty five to one.

662
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: I too, am taking Jacob Bridgeman at twenty two and

663
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 1: a half to one.

664
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 2: Bo I'm with you.

665
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 1: I think he's a great play this week. The guy's

666
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: just on fire and seems to seems to really be

667
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 1: comfortable in these Florida courses. I am going to take

668
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 1: Rio Hassatsine just because the ball striking has been so exquisite.

669
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna hope he can make a find a

670
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 1: way to make a few pots, make some three let's go. Yeah,

671
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna put like two dollars on Steven

672
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: Yeager one hundred and five to one. Ye a little more,

673
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put a little more than that on Blades

674
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 1: Brown at one hundred and ten to one. And uh,

675
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: I'm also going to bet Blades Brown for a top

676
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 1: ten at plus seven cent story. And now for the

677
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,840
Speaker 1: one and done competition, Bo, you played the Scotti Scheffler.

678
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 2: Card last week.

679
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: Scotty just could not get it going the first two days.

680
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 1: His ball striking was uncharacteristically off on Friday, when he

681
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 1: shot a one over par seventy three, briefly in danger

682
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 1: of not making the cut.

683
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 2: Scotty did play better on the weekend.

684
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,720
Speaker 3: I was sweat. I'm sweating like oh.

685
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: Man, and bo, I don't know if you want the

686
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: last three holes. So Scotty, fantastic chip on the par

687
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: five sixteenth. I don't know how it didn't go down

688
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 1: for an eagle, Like it's skirted right over the hole

689
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: and stopped an inch away like that should have been

690
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: an eagle makes a birdie seventeenth hole, he's like maybe

691
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,919
Speaker 1: six inches or less from like catching that slope where

692
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 1: it rolls down and gives you like a six foot birdie.

693
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 1: Pott still almost made the birdie pot from like nineteen

694
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 1: feet or whatever he had. And then on eighteen, I

695
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: mean he almost hit the flags with his approach and

696
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: steady rolls it off the back and winds up like

697
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: making kind of a sloppy bogie.

698
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 3: He was over it, and it was you could tell

699
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 3: he was just like, I just want to get out

700
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 3: of here as fast as I can, and nothing was

701
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,240
Speaker 3: going down for him. He just couldn't buy a bucket,

702
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 3: and you could tell he was getting frustrated. He was

703
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 3: fist pumping on a miss. Yeah, he was saw that

704
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,919
Speaker 3: he was checked out, and I mean, that's the best

705
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 3: that's the best goal from the world. So what hope

706
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 3: do we have at our local Munich? Exactly?

707
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: So, tied for twenty second earned you two hundred and

708
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 1: seventy one and fifty dollars. Any regrets on burning him, No.

709
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 3: I just wish I would have gone with my gut

710
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 3: and taken a little bit more risk and done cam

711
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 3: Young because I already burned Ludwig with his only miscut

712
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 3: of the year was the the week I used Ludwig

713
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 3: on it. But then cam Young was the volatile pick.

714
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 3: But then I was like, I got the lead off,

715
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,919
Speaker 3: I can take Scotty here. It's a sure thing, right, Yeah,

716
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 3: I could have had four point five million more.

717
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 1: I see Kim, he shot a seventy six on Sunday

718
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: to slide into a tie for fifty. It's good for

719
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,879
Speaker 1: only sixty one eighty three dollars. Bow gains a little

720
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: over two hundred thousand dollars on me and adds to

721
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 1: his big lead.

722
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna lie Bow.

723
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 1: I thought dodging the Scottie Scheffler bullet was a pretty

724
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: good result for me overall. I am up first this week,

725
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: and look, I agree, I don't like his uh price

726
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: for an outright wager, but I'm gonna take Xander Schoffley.

727
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 2: That's about you.

728
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 3: That's that's the Scottie pick this week. Right, is the

729
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 3: safest guy, the guy that should do well here. Right,

730
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 3: and then by the end, by now you should know

731
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 3: that I'm taking Jacob Bridgeman. That's just it's right there

732
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 3: in front of me. I'm not I'm not gonna just.

733
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna say, oh yeah, let's let's get cute

734
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 3: right now. No, I'm gonna stick with my Gun's gonna

735
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,759
Speaker 3: stick with my model, which has won us a lot

736
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,280
Speaker 3: of money this year. Let's trust the process, trust the model,

737
00:37:55,480 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 3: trust my gut, my my growing gut, and let's see

738
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 3: what Jacob Bridgeman can do at the copper Head Course.

739
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,439
Speaker 2: You are all in. You're splashing the pot like Teddy

740
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 2: KGB and Rounders say.

741
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 3: The men is money.

742
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 1: That is all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast.

743
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 1: We hope you'll be back with us next week when

744
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:17,760
Speaker 1: Bow and I preview the Houston Open.

745
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone.

746
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

747
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

748
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

749
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

750
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

751
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros