WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 5 NFL Game (Ep. 350) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.200 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:05.200 your bet and it's me Joey B Joe P's a 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:07.480 P and it's week five in the NFL. It's time 0:00:07.520 --> 0:00:09.520 to look ahead at some of the games that we 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:12.360 have going forward. I think there's a lot of early value. 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:14.720 I am excited for it. And to help me break 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:17.360 it all down, of course, Sam Hoppin and Pat fitz Morris, 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:20.319 the boys from betting pros and Fantasy pros, We're gonna 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:22.119 take you through some of the early lines and the 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.680 values and see what might be worth wagering on early on. 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:28.160 Definitely last week there were some fun thing. Sam Hoppin, 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:30.720 I hope you had a good week, certainly a better 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:33.440 week than maybe the Chicago Bears have. Maybe we could 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:34.479 start there, right. 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.440 I mean, but the bar is pretty low for having 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:42.199 a better week than the Chicago Bears. I mean it was. 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:44.959 My wife asked me after the game, She's like, are 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:48.080 you surprised that the Bears lost? And I'm like, well, 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:52.280 I'm not based on what I thought before the game, 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:55.560 but I am based on how the game was going 0:00:55.760 --> 0:01:01.440 three quarters in. So yeah, not looking too great in Chicago. 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:04.120 No, I'll tell you what though, speaking of how that 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:06.920 game was going, Pat fitz Morris, this is my favorite 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:09.840 moment of Sunday. A little in game live betting I 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:12.160 was doing there. I'm I'm watching some of these games 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:13.759 because some of these games were a little tight there, 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:15.520 and I was like, well, we look for an opportunity. 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:17.840 We were a team that falls behind, and Denver Broncos 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:19.560 fell behind, and all of a sudden their money line 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:23.000 became plus five twenty on FanDuel and Joey P bet it, 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.240 and then Joey P got real nervous because I thought 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:27.800 that the Bears were got to kick a field goal. 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:30.920 They chose not to even after the time out. Pat, 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:34.039 my favorite bet of the Sunday things feel good? Did 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:36.600 you cut your sleeves off on Sunday at any given 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:38.640 time too, like Sean Payton just out of curiosity. 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:42.160 I did not, Joe, But yeah, I was a little 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:45.480 surprised by that moment in the Bears Broncos game too, 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:48.919 where the Bears lined up to go for it. Everyone 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.120 thought they were going to kick the field goal at 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.680 the Broncos to try to jump off sides didn't work. 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.320 Come out of the timeout and still decide to go 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:59.480 for it and come up woefully shorts, leading to yet 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.000 another line. So yeah, we'll talk about the bearsmore in 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.400 a minute here. But oh yeah, they don't inspire confidence, 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:09.240 at least not here among you know, my neighbors, my 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:10.440 Bears fans. 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:14.280 Yeah, term of confidence, Like I'm confident. I was very 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:15.880 confident that even when they were up, they were going 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:17.640 to lose. So I guess it's a different kind of 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:18.200 confidence at. 0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:18.640 The end of the day. 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.800 And that's what's so beautiful about the wagering market. There's 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:25.359 early value, there's value during the week, there's value while 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:27.560 the games are going on, so it never stops. So 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:28.919 if you want to get in on it, make sure 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:31.480 you download the Betting Pros apps, sink all your sports books. 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:34.000 Oh and don't forget, we're also getting away free stuff here. 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:37.640 We're giving away an Odell Beckham signed Baltimore Ravens Jersey 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:39.680 thanks to us here a Betting Pros. All you have 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:43.239 to do is subscribe to our Betting Pros YouTube channel 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:45.280 and of course drop a comment below let us know 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:47.600 what your favorite early picks are. We love hearing from 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:50.440 you in the YouTube comments and click the little BELTI 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:52.639 that goes ding for notification, so you know when all 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:55.480 the content drops here and when you're notified if you 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.520 are the big winner of the Objay jersey. Let's start 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:02.040 here with, of course, Thursday night football, and guess what 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:05.720 it's the Chicago Bears zero to four heading to Washington. 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:08.440 Washington's two and two. The forty five and a half 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:10.800 is the number you're getting here on bet MGM. Forty 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:12.679 four and a half at sugar House. Six is the 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:14.440 number across the board. If you like Chicago for the 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:16.959 upset of plus two twenty, there you have it over 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:19.600 on FanDuel. But pat short week for a team that 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:22.000 has trouble preparing no matter how much time you give him. 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:26.320 Washington looked very solid, really competitive against the Eagles last week. 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:28.359 So or are we liken this six for the Washington 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:28.959 early on. 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:30.600 A little bit? 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:33.679 Yes, Joe, I mean, it would just be so reckless 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:35.720 to bet the Bears at this point, and the short 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:38.520 week might be the only thing preventing Matt eber Flus 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:42.000 and his staff from being summarily dismissed this week. Like 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:44.440 things have gone so sideways for the Bears. One of 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:47.600 the interesting things to come out of Bears headquarters this 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.000 past week was from the Chase Claypole sagin We know 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:54.400 he was deactivated on Sunday, No surprise there. He has 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:57.360 not endeared himself to the organization this year with his effort. 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:01.160 But Bears head coach Matt Eberflus told the media it 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:04.640 was Claypool's choice not to come to the stadium after 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:07.600 he was informed he was going to be deactivated. A 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:11.160 team spokesman later clarified that it was not in fact 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:15.320 Claypool's choice. He was told not to come. So obviously 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:16.840 morale is not going to be high for an h 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:18.599 and to four team to begin with, and it doesn't 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:23.040 help that eber Flus is making odd choices like that 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.440 decision to go forward on fourth and one yesterday and 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.720 easy field goal range, or the decision to throw one 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:31.599 of his own players underneath the bus by saying that 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:33.479 he chose not to come to the stadium when he 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:34.200 was told not to. 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:38.760 So, I eber Flus, pat, You're thinking when he was there, 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:41.640 he wasn't present, So what's the difference, right? It's true, 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:43.840 but there was very zen, wasn't it. 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:45.960 If you're one of the players about it, Joe, I 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:49.479 mean like, I got to think they got some major. 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:53.000 I'm pissed at the guy. I'm like, true, this guy Sam. 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:55.320 You know Pat mentioned reckless. When I think reckless, I 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:58.120 think Sam Hoppin. Sam, what do you think about this one? 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.240 Any early value on this short week here, where you know, 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:04.240 you take a little bit out of some confidence boost 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:06.360 from the commanders and their performance in Philly. 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:09.960 I don't think so. I was very encouraged by how 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:14.240 Washington performed against Philadelphia. I think that was more so 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:17.919 a game in which Washington played up to the competition 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:21.880 than Philadelphia playing down to the competition. We saw the 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:25.479 good Sam Howell on Sunday. Now he gets to face 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.920 a Bears defense that ranks thirty first in pass ePaper play, 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:32.800 twenty seventh in success rate, and twenty fifth in explosive 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:35.679 pass rate. So I don't know if I like any 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:40.160 side here, because again, backing Sam Howell still is a 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:43.800 little nerve racking to me. But I'd certainly be looking 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.560 at Washington's team total. I mean, the Bears defense is 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:50.600 terrible and they're just letting anyone score points on them. 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:53.760 No, that's a good point. That's a good point of 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:57.880 view on this game. Jacksonville stays in London for another week. 0:05:57.920 --> 0:05:59.880 There again, they're home away from home. The Buffalo Bills 0:05:59.880 --> 0:06:02.279 are travel out there. Forty eight and a half is 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:04.400 the number you can get on the under, forty seven 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.000 and a half on Sugarouse, forty eight and a half 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:08.320 on points Bet. Right now, you're seeing the spread vary 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.400 somewhere between four and a half on the Buffalo side 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.320 here on DK and plus five and a half over 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.080 on Caesars if you like the Jacksonville side, plus one 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:19.400 ninety five on bet three sixty five. Again, I'm seeing 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:21.800 all these lines at bettingpros dot com or you just 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:23.400 download the app. This is how you can see the 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:27.760 best lines. Is there a letdown potentially, Sam in this one, 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:31.000 with Buffalo having a big important game against Miami, coming 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:32.560 off two wins in a row, and then getting on 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:33.640 a plane and going to London. 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.800 I don't think so. I think the Bills are an 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:39.880 absolute wagon right now. There's no team that I was 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:43.640 more impressed with on Sunday than the Buffalo Bills. I 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:47.240 was on the the Dolphins money line in our chat 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:51.520 earlier before the game and that did not pan out well. 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:54.640 But they've put up thirty five plus points in three 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.800 straight games. They are humming on all cylinders. They lost 0:06:57.839 --> 0:07:01.159 to Davis White, which sucks, but it sounds like von 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:04.039 Miller is expected to start practicing with the Bills again 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:09.039 on Monday. I don't think if Jacksonville gets out to 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:11.200 a lead that they'll be able to hold that lead. 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:14.800 They're twenty eighth in pressure rate on defense, they are 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:18.360 struggling to run the ball a ton outside of Trevor 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:22.480 Lawrence scrambles, and so I think this is just a 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:27.400 tremendous spot for the Bills again, heading to Jacksonville's home 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:28.120 away from home. 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.200 Pat, any value here in your opinion, or any advantage 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:34.080 with Jacksonville already being out there and already kind of 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:36.920 adjusted to life out there in terms of time difference 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:38.480 and all the other stuff, or is that just overrated? 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:40.160 I actually think so, Joe. 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.320 I think this is a good spot for the Jaguars. 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.360 I mean, you've got the Bills coming off this emotional 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:48.280 win against their chief rival in the AFC East, and 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.680 now the Bills have to travel to London after this 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:52.280 big game. 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:54.000 The Jaguars have already been there. 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:56.480 They the Week four game in London, so they get 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:58.680 to just kick back and enjoy Bangers in mash all 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:00.840 week while they're waiting for the Bills to show up 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:04.400 in London. They've got the whole play overseas thing down 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:06.560 to a science by now too, since they are the 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:07.800 regulars in London. 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:08.960 So what do we do here? 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.239 I mean, we know the Bills are the superior team, 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.440 but there is reason to believe they might not throw 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:17.840 their best punch coming off this big win and traveling overseas. 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:19.960 I don't think this line is going to go down. 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:21.440 I think a lot of people are going to be 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:25.280 confident in the Bills after what we saw against the Dolphins, 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:27.480 So I think this line is going up. 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:28.200 I want to wait. 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:30.320 I want to try to get a little bit more 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:32.160 value here and then bet the Jaguars. 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:34.520 Okay, that makes sense to me, So let's wait on 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:37.520 this one. Maybe no early value. What about Tennessee Indianapolis again? 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:39.920 Right now, we are plus one and a half on 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.840 the Tennessee side of this game. You get plus one 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:45.040 though on Indianapolis at DK, so we're basically, you know, 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.480 between fan duel and DK there you're at a pick 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:50.120 him at this point. Indianapolis did come back. They were 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:51.960 very competitive in the second half of that game after 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:54.920 kind of a sluggish start against the Rams, and Tennessee 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:58.720 put a hurtin on the Cincinnati Bengals. They got to 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:02.160 the quarterback something again. They're gonna have a little bit 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:05.559 more mobile quarterback this week to face Hine Richards is 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:06.720 going to get out of the pocket a little bit 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:08.480 better than Joe Burrow. Forty one and a half is 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:10.800 the number for this one on the total over a 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.840 bet MGM forty two and a half at points bet fits. 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:15.760 You know, this is one of those classic kind of 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:18.760 pickup games. We did get the Tennessee Titans. You know 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:21.040 that we were hoping for and looking for right a 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:23.000 couple of weeks ago. But we thought, oh yeah, this 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:25.120 is when the Tennessee Titans bring it down to their level. 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:27.720 Play in the mud, hit a hard place, smashmouth football. 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:30.080 We were just a week too late. Does it continue 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:31.199 this week? Yeah? 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:33.720 I don't like betting against Mike Frable teams because of 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:37.559 this reason. I think they can outperform their talent. Should 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:39.880 we like the over here? I mean we are looking 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:43.040 at two of the worst hals defenses. Yeah, I mean, 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:47.280 I know neither of these passing offenses are real inspiring, 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:50.480 but these are two really bad pass defenses. And we 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:54.200 might see Jonathan Taylor possibly return to the Colts this week. 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:56.680 We don't know if that's going to happen yet, but boy, 0:09:57.160 --> 0:09:59.000 what an interesting matchup that is going to be if 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:02.240 Taylor comes back. You've got Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:05.679 going up against maybe the best run defense in the NFL. 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:08.520 I'd really like to see that. I think there might 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:11.040 be a little bit of value in the over. I mean, 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:13.480 the Titans shut down Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I know, 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.520 like this is not the same Bengals offense, so let's 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:20.320 not read too much into that. I just this is 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:24.440 a low total and two pretty bad pass defenses. So 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:28.400 I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts and Titans were 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:30.200 able to do some business through the air in this 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.000 one and get this over the total. 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:36.360 Sam bad pass defense is also an explosive playmaker. Anthony 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:39.400 Richardson when he starts humming when he's on and he 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:41.199 saw in the second half like he started to get 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:43.920 that juice back right all of a sudden, I feel like, 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:46.520 no total safe when it's in the Colts game, and 0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:48.040 I like the over last week, and when we talked 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:49.560 about the Rams game, right, I was very much all. 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:52.199 I was like, hey, Richardson's back, anything could happen. That 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.319 guy is so explosive. Do you think forty one and 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:56.880 a half is enough where you like the over two? 0:10:57.080 --> 0:11:01.280 I think so. It's it's an intriguing because of how 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.240 fast the Colts are playing. I mean they are second 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:09.920 in neutral script seconds per play, first in neutral script 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:14.160 no huddle rate. They are just moving at lightning speeds 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:17.559 right now. They were doing it with Gardner Minshew as 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.840 well when he started the other week. Again, I mentioned 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:24.280 that the Bills were the most impressive team on Sunday, 0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:29.360 Tennessee was the second most impressive to me. They played incredible. Again. 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:32.839 We know that this Bengals offense is not what it 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:37.120 was built up to be in the preseason, but you 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:41.160 saw that vintage Derrick Henry touchdown run where he just 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:44.360 pushed defenders to the side. You know, they had that 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:47.320 very bad game against Cleveland a couple of weeks ago, 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.400 but Cleveland's defense has also been exceptional this year. So 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.880 I think the Titans could potentially be in obviously in 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:59.679 this race for the AFC South and think that they'll 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:02.320 take call him the win against India this Sunday. 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:04.880 One of the best stores in the NFL has to 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:07.120 be the Houston Texans. They are two and two heading 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:09.679 to Atlanta, coming off a loss, coming off a long 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:13.120 plane ride back home. Right now, still Atlanta is two 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.360 and a half point favorites in this one. Forty two 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.160 is the number if you like the under on DK. 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.440 But you can get forty one at points bet plus 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.360 one twenty five if you like the Houston Texas for 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:26.000 the upset. Now, look, Sam, when you beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.800 that's gotta be like the b in your bonnet, right 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.000 the feather in your cap or whatever other head where 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:34.920 you know the comment I want to make here, But 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:37.440 the Houston Texans I think have something fun and special 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:40.400 going on. Does it carry with them on the road 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:41.760 to Atlanta. That's the question. 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.640 It does for sure. It The better quarterback in CJ. 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:49.400 Stroud is getting the points. Yeah, it is as easy 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.840 as that he is. You know, he's lighting it up. 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:56.240 You may not have passed the S two cognition test, 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.280 but he's certainly passing the eye test on the film. 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:02.000 I mean he is playing lights out again. People thought 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.720 he'd take a step back against this Pittsburgh defense, which 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.040 has shown to have some holes in it at this point, 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:12.240 but again putting up that much yardage and making these 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.839 defenses look silly weak after a week, he got to 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:15.959 buy in at this point. 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:18.800 All right, Pat, how do you want to buy into 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:20.640 this game with CJ. Stroud? You want to just take 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:22.760 him outright? Do you want to go ahead? Because if you, 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:24.880 if you do, want to go ahead, take him on 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:26.800 the moneyliner a game plus one twenty five just to 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:27.760 win this football game. 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:29.480 Yeah, I like it out right. 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:33.760 And the Falcons were the darlings of people in the 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:37.040 preseason to win the NFC South, and I think people 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.720 should maybe be second guessing that because you know, once 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.080 again we're in the situation where Arthur Smith is not 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:46.840 utilizing his best offensive talent to maximum capacity. 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:48.080 Sam said it. 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.000 I mean, there is a decisive quarterback advantage for the 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:55.640 Texans here and making CJ. Stroud's performance so far all 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.240 the more impressive the fact that he's got like none 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:01.320 of his starting offensive linemen playing right now, well maybe 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.520 one three are on ir and Laramie Tunsel didn't play 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.840 either on Sunday. So they picked their teeth with the 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:12.679 Pittsburgh Steelers. I mean, they absolutely destroyed the Steelers on Sunday. 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:14.760 That was not even a close game. 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:16.360 I'm gonna have to do a dealer. Just check on 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:17.440 Bogman tonight when we do. 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:19.480 I know, man, I really. 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:20.080 See it's okay. 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.760 And like, I don't think the Texans are capable of 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.840 being in a letdown spot right now. They're just too 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:30.280 young for that. And like ta Meco Ryans is, he's 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:32.280 doing such a good job with this team, like they're 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:37.200 they entered Week four third in special Teams DVOA. The 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.360 defense like we thought they were going to be under 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:44.600 man but the defense is overachieved. The offense is tremendously overachieving. Yeah, 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:46.640 I like Houston more. I think they're the better team. 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:50.720 While Pat was talking that plus money went to even 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:54.080 by the way, so just saying like that's all right, 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:55.920 people are in on it. They must have been, you know, 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.680 somehow listening live. Maybe there's a listening device in this room. 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.160 I don't know, but I just saw that happen over 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:03.640 at betting Pros. So get in while the getting's good 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:05.320 because the word might be turning of this game as 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:08.560 people sit back and start to marinate about ZJ. Stroud 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:10.320 and what they've seen so far. We haven't seen a 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.160 win yet from the Carolina Panthers. They are zero and four. 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.360 They are eight and a half point underdogs right now 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:19.320 on FanDuel going to the Detroit Lions. We'll look really strong. 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:21.560 We'll have some extra rest, who got all their running 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:24.320 backs back in healthy last week against the Green Bay Packers. 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:26.600 Forty four is the number on FanDuel right now. You 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:28.280 get forty three and a half on the over over 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:30.480 on bet MGM. If you like Carolina for the upset 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:33.360 and I don't, it's plus three forty on the money line. 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.520 But let's talk about this. Detroit looks really good. Pat 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:38.120 This is a big number though, eight and a half 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:42.320 pretty large. Are we that confident yet with the Detroit Lions, 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:45.040 even against a winless Carolina Panther team, that they're going 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:46.080 to cover that number? 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.760 No, And maybe we should be. Our friend Derek Brown 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.720 was just pointing out on a Fantasy Pros podcast how 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.360 good this Detroit defense has been. And this has turned 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:59.560 into a near elite run defense, and it's been pretty 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:03.080 good against pass too. They're dialing up pressure. They made 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.120 the Green Bay Packers offense look pretty inept for at 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.280 least the first half of the Week three game on 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:11.880 Thursday night. So I don't know, do we see a 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.800 letdown game for the Lions after that big divisional win? 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:15.600 Maybe maybe not. 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:18.360 I don't know they've had extra extra prep time or 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:21.360 will have had. I just I feel like we're due 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:24.760 for a decent Bryce Young game which we have not gotten. 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:29.400 Me like, no offenses looked so ragged, but I just like, 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.400 I can't lay this many points with the Lions. 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:32.560 I'm just not there. 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.400 Yet, Sam, Like I said, there's a couple early games. 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.200 I really like. This one is another one where we 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:40.720 spoke about earlier where I feel like, if you wait, 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:44.040 this one's going to grow bigger and it could even 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.560 start to you know, scratch nine and a half or 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.960 even ten. That's I think when I would bet Carolina. 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:51.200 Do you agree or disagree? 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:53.040 I do. 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:55.960 I mean this is a slightly lower total. It's around 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.520 forty three, forty four points right now, so if it 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.400 gets out to ten, then I think Carolina is certainly 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.760 the side to take. The thing is that the Lions 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:09.440 should be able to get ahead early and then hold 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:12.240 that league against one of the leagues, if not the 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:17.239 league's worst rushing defense in EPA per play. Carolina just 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:21.600 can't really stop anyone right now. Obviously had a somewhat 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:26.359 decent game against Minnesota, but I just think that Detroit 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.600 will be able to get a lead early and then 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.240 continue to run the ball with David Montgomery like they 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:32.120 did this past week. 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:35.360 Now, we don't have definitive news yet, but it would 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.919 certainly see that Kenny Pickett is in danger, I believe 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.560 of missing. Is that safe to say everybody in danger 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:42.440 of missing Week five? Can I say that I can? 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:45.280 Okay good in danger of missing Week five? They are 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.399 at home with potentially Mitchell Trubisky being there. They are 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.760 four point home underdogs coming in here on points bet 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:55.440 over on the on their side against the Baltimore Ravens 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:58.360 who had a big win in Cleveland. Again no Deshaun Watson, 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:01.159 so we want to take it out of that, but 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:03.359 you get Baltimore minus two and a half right now 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.440 at bet Rivers. The number for this game obviously slugfest 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:10.000 typical AFC North forty on points bet forty one on 0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:12.520 sugar House. If you like the under if you like 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:14.879 Pittsburgh to figure it out with mister Bisky plus one 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:18.320 sixty of points. Bet that's the number here. So it's 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:20.640 been a very weird year so far. I would say 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:23.520 it was a strange September sam for this division. I 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:26.160 think overall, I think it's safe to say we thought 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:28.400 this was going to be the Juggernaut Division and it's 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.639 starting to look like is Can anybody stay healthy and 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:34.040 win this thing? It's a great opportunity for the Baltimore 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:37.600 Ravens to handle their business against a down and out 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.840 Pittsburgh Steeler team. Will they do that? And do you 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:43.040 want to hop on this line now before people have 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.320