Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bet and it's me Joey B Joe P's a
Speaker 1: P and it's week five in the NFL. It's time
Speaker 1: to look ahead at some of the games that we
Speaker 1: have going forward. I think there's a lot of early value.
Speaker 1: I am excited for it. And to help me break
Speaker 1: it all down, of course, Sam Hoppin and Pat fitz Morris,
Speaker 1: the boys from betting pros and Fantasy pros, We're gonna
Speaker 1: take you through some of the early lines and the
Speaker 1: values and see what might be worth wagering on early on.
Speaker 1: Definitely last week there were some fun thing. Sam Hoppin,
Speaker 1: I hope you had a good week, certainly a better
Speaker 1: week than maybe the Chicago Bears have. Maybe we could
Speaker 1: start there, right.
Speaker 2: I mean, but the bar is pretty low for having
Speaker 2: a better week than the Chicago Bears. I mean it was.
Speaker 2: My wife asked me after the game, She's like, are
Speaker 2: you surprised that the Bears lost? And I'm like, well,
Speaker 2: I'm not based on what I thought before the game,
Speaker 2: but I am based on how the game was going
Speaker 2: three quarters in. So yeah, not looking too great in Chicago.
Speaker 1: No, I'll tell you what though, speaking of how that
Speaker 1: game was going, Pat fitz Morris, this is my favorite
Speaker 1: moment of Sunday. A little in game live betting I
Speaker 1: was doing there. I'm I'm watching some of these games
Speaker 1: because some of these games were a little tight there,
Speaker 1: and I was like, well, we look for an opportunity.
Speaker 1: We were a team that falls behind, and Denver Broncos
Speaker 1: fell behind, and all of a sudden their money line
Speaker 1: became plus five twenty on FanDuel and Joey P bet it,
Speaker 1: and then Joey P got real nervous because I thought
Speaker 1: that the Bears were got to kick a field goal.
Speaker 1: They chose not to even after the time out. Pat,
Speaker 1: my favorite bet of the Sunday things feel good? Did
Speaker 1: you cut your sleeves off on Sunday at any given
Speaker 1: time too, like Sean Payton just out of curiosity.
Speaker 3: I did not, Joe, But yeah, I was a little
Speaker 3: surprised by that moment in the Bears Broncos game too,
Speaker 3: where the Bears lined up to go for it. Everyone
Speaker 3: thought they were going to kick the field goal at
Speaker 3: the Broncos to try to jump off sides didn't work.
Speaker 3: Come out of the timeout and still decide to go
Speaker 3: for it and come up woefully shorts, leading to yet
Speaker 3: another line. So yeah, we'll talk about the bearsmore in
Speaker 3: a minute here. But oh yeah, they don't inspire confidence,
Speaker 3: at least not here among you know, my neighbors, my
Speaker 3: Bears fans.
Speaker 1: Yeah, term of confidence, Like I'm confident. I was very
Speaker 1: confident that even when they were up, they were going
Speaker 1: to lose. So I guess it's a different kind of
Speaker 1: confidence at.
Speaker 2: The end of the day.
Speaker 1: And that's what's so beautiful about the wagering market. There's
Speaker 1: early value, there's value during the week, there's value while
Speaker 1: the games are going on, so it never stops. So
Speaker 1: if you want to get in on it, make sure
Speaker 1: you download the Betting Pros apps, sink all your sports books.
Speaker 1: Oh and don't forget, we're also getting away free stuff here.
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Speaker 1: thanks to us here a Betting Pros. All you have
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Speaker 1: what your favorite early picks are. We love hearing from
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Speaker 1: are the big winner of the Objay jersey. Let's start
Speaker 1: here with, of course, Thursday night football, and guess what
Speaker 1: it's the Chicago Bears zero to four heading to Washington.
Speaker 1: Washington's two and two. The forty five and a half
Speaker 1: is the number you're getting here on bet MGM. Forty
Speaker 1: four and a half at sugar House. Six is the
Speaker 1: number across the board. If you like Chicago for the
Speaker 1: upset of plus two twenty, there you have it over
Speaker 1: on FanDuel. But pat short week for a team that
Speaker 1: has trouble preparing no matter how much time you give him.
Speaker 1: Washington looked very solid, really competitive against the Eagles last week.
Speaker 1: So or are we liken this six for the Washington
Speaker 1: early on.
Speaker 4: A little bit?
Speaker 3: Yes, Joe, I mean, it would just be so reckless
Speaker 3: to bet the Bears at this point, and the short
Speaker 3: week might be the only thing preventing Matt eber Flus
Speaker 3: and his staff from being summarily dismissed this week. Like
Speaker 3: things have gone so sideways for the Bears. One of
Speaker 3: the interesting things to come out of Bears headquarters this
Speaker 3: past week was from the Chase Claypole sagin We know
Speaker 3: he was deactivated on Sunday, No surprise there. He has
Speaker 3: not endeared himself to the organization this year with his effort.
Speaker 3: But Bears head coach Matt Eberflus told the media it
Speaker 3: was Claypool's choice not to come to the stadium after
Speaker 3: he was informed he was going to be deactivated. A
Speaker 3: team spokesman later clarified that it was not in fact
Speaker 3: Claypool's choice. He was told not to come. So obviously
Speaker 3: morale is not going to be high for an h
Speaker 3: and to four team to begin with, and it doesn't
Speaker 3: help that eber Flus is making odd choices like that
Speaker 3: decision to go forward on fourth and one yesterday and
Speaker 3: easy field goal range, or the decision to throw one
Speaker 3: of his own players underneath the bus by saying that
Speaker 3: he chose not to come to the stadium when he
Speaker 3: was told not to.
Speaker 1: So, I eber Flus, pat, You're thinking when he was there,
Speaker 1: he wasn't present, So what's the difference, right? It's true,
Speaker 1: but there was very zen, wasn't it.
Speaker 3: If you're one of the players about it, Joe, I
Speaker 3: mean like, I got to think they got some major.
Speaker 1: I'm pissed at the guy. I'm like, true, this guy Sam.
Speaker 1: You know Pat mentioned reckless. When I think reckless, I
Speaker 1: think Sam Hoppin. Sam, what do you think about this one?
Speaker 1: Any early value on this short week here, where you know,
Speaker 1: you take a little bit out of some confidence boost
Speaker 1: from the commanders and their performance in Philly.
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I was very encouraged by how
Speaker 2: Washington performed against Philadelphia. I think that was more so
Speaker 2: a game in which Washington played up to the competition
Speaker 2: than Philadelphia playing down to the competition. We saw the
Speaker 2: good Sam Howell on Sunday. Now he gets to face
Speaker 2: a Bears defense that ranks thirty first in pass ePaper play,
Speaker 2: twenty seventh in success rate, and twenty fifth in explosive
Speaker 2: pass rate. So I don't know if I like any
Speaker 2: side here, because again, backing Sam Howell still is a
Speaker 2: little nerve racking to me. But I'd certainly be looking
Speaker 2: at Washington's team total. I mean, the Bears defense is
Speaker 2: terrible and they're just letting anyone score points on them.
Speaker 1: No, that's a good point. That's a good point of
Speaker 1: view on this game. Jacksonville stays in London for another week.
Speaker 1: There again, they're home away from home. The Buffalo Bills
Speaker 1: are travel out there. Forty eight and a half is
Speaker 1: the number you can get on the under, forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half on Sugarouse, forty eight and a half
Speaker 1: on points Bet. Right now, you're seeing the spread vary
Speaker 1: somewhere between four and a half on the Buffalo side
Speaker 1: here on DK and plus five and a half over
Speaker 1: on Caesars if you like the Jacksonville side, plus one
Speaker 1: ninety five on bet three sixty five. Again, I'm seeing
Speaker 1: all these lines at bettingpros dot com or you just
Speaker 1: download the app. This is how you can see the
Speaker 1: best lines. Is there a letdown potentially, Sam in this one,
Speaker 1: with Buffalo having a big important game against Miami, coming
Speaker 1: off two wins in a row, and then getting on
Speaker 1: a plane and going to London.
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think the Bills are an
Speaker 2: absolute wagon right now. There's no team that I was
Speaker 2: more impressed with on Sunday than the Buffalo Bills. I
Speaker 2: was on the the Dolphins money line in our chat
Speaker 2: earlier before the game and that did not pan out well.
Speaker 2: But they've put up thirty five plus points in three
Speaker 2: straight games. They are humming on all cylinders. They lost
Speaker 2: to Davis White, which sucks, but it sounds like von
Speaker 2: Miller is expected to start practicing with the Bills again
Speaker 2: on Monday. I don't think if Jacksonville gets out to
Speaker 2: a lead that they'll be able to hold that lead.
Speaker 2: They're twenty eighth in pressure rate on defense, they are
Speaker 2: struggling to run the ball a ton outside of Trevor
Speaker 2: Lawrence scrambles, and so I think this is just a
Speaker 2: tremendous spot for the Bills again, heading to Jacksonville's home
Speaker 2: away from home.
Speaker 1: Pat, any value here in your opinion, or any advantage
Speaker 1: with Jacksonville already being out there and already kind of
Speaker 1: adjusted to life out there in terms of time difference
Speaker 1: and all the other stuff, or is that just overrated?
Speaker 4: I actually think so, Joe.
Speaker 3: I think this is a good spot for the Jaguars.
Speaker 3: I mean, you've got the Bills coming off this emotional
Speaker 3: win against their chief rival in the AFC East, and
Speaker 3: now the Bills have to travel to London after this
Speaker 3: big game.
Speaker 4: The Jaguars have already been there.
Speaker 3: They the Week four game in London, so they get
Speaker 3: to just kick back and enjoy Bangers in mash all
Speaker 3: week while they're waiting for the Bills to show up
Speaker 3: in London. They've got the whole play overseas thing down
Speaker 3: to a science by now too, since they are the
Speaker 3: regulars in London.
Speaker 4: So what do we do here?
Speaker 3: I mean, we know the Bills are the superior team,
Speaker 3: but there is reason to believe they might not throw
Speaker 3: their best punch coming off this big win and traveling overseas.
Speaker 4: I don't think this line is going to go down.
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people are going to be
Speaker 3: confident in the Bills after what we saw against the Dolphins,
Speaker 3: So I think this line is going up.
Speaker 4: I want to wait.
Speaker 3: I want to try to get a little bit more
Speaker 3: value here and then bet the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: Okay, that makes sense to me, So let's wait on
Speaker 1: this one. Maybe no early value. What about Tennessee Indianapolis again?
Speaker 1: Right now, we are plus one and a half on
Speaker 1: the Tennessee side of this game. You get plus one
Speaker 1: though on Indianapolis at DK, so we're basically, you know,
Speaker 1: between fan duel and DK there you're at a pick
Speaker 1: him at this point. Indianapolis did come back. They were
Speaker 1: very competitive in the second half of that game after
Speaker 1: kind of a sluggish start against the Rams, and Tennessee
Speaker 1: put a hurtin on the Cincinnati Bengals. They got to
Speaker 1: the quarterback something again. They're gonna have a little bit
Speaker 1: more mobile quarterback this week to face Hine Richards is
Speaker 1: going to get out of the pocket a little bit
Speaker 1: better than Joe Burrow. Forty one and a half is
Speaker 1: the number for this one on the total over a
Speaker 1: bet MGM forty two and a half at points bet fits.
Speaker 1: You know, this is one of those classic kind of
Speaker 1: pickup games. We did get the Tennessee Titans. You know
Speaker 1: that we were hoping for and looking for right a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. But we thought, oh yeah, this
Speaker 1: is when the Tennessee Titans bring it down to their level.
Speaker 1: Play in the mud, hit a hard place, smashmouth football.
Speaker 1: We were just a week too late. Does it continue
Speaker 1: this week? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I don't like betting against Mike Frable teams because of
Speaker 3: this reason. I think they can outperform their talent. Should
Speaker 3: we like the over here? I mean we are looking
Speaker 3: at two of the worst hals defenses. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: I know neither of these passing offenses are real inspiring,
Speaker 3: but these are two really bad pass defenses. And we
Speaker 3: might see Jonathan Taylor possibly return to the Colts this week.
Speaker 3: We don't know if that's going to happen yet, but boy,
Speaker 3: what an interesting matchup that is going to be if
Speaker 3: Taylor comes back. You've got Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 3: going up against maybe the best run defense in the NFL.
Speaker 3: I'd really like to see that. I think there might
Speaker 3: be a little bit of value in the over. I mean,
Speaker 3: the Titans shut down Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I know,
Speaker 3: like this is not the same Bengals offense, so let's
Speaker 3: not read too much into that. I just this is
Speaker 3: a low total and two pretty bad pass defenses. So
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts and Titans were
Speaker 3: able to do some business through the air in this
Speaker 3: one and get this over the total.
Speaker 1: Sam bad pass defense is also an explosive playmaker. Anthony
Speaker 1: Richardson when he starts humming when he's on and he
Speaker 1: saw in the second half like he started to get
Speaker 1: that juice back right all of a sudden, I feel like,
Speaker 1: no total safe when it's in the Colts game, and
Speaker 1: I like the over last week, and when we talked
Speaker 1: about the Rams game, right, I was very much all.
Speaker 1: I was like, hey, Richardson's back, anything could happen. That
Speaker 1: guy is so explosive. Do you think forty one and
Speaker 1: a half is enough where you like the over two?
Speaker 2: I think so. It's it's an intriguing because of how
Speaker 2: fast the Colts are playing. I mean they are second
Speaker 2: in neutral script seconds per play, first in neutral script
Speaker 2: no huddle rate. They are just moving at lightning speeds
Speaker 2: right now. They were doing it with Gardner Minshew as
Speaker 2: well when he started the other week. Again, I mentioned
Speaker 2: that the Bills were the most impressive team on Sunday,
Speaker 2: Tennessee was the second most impressive to me. They played incredible. Again.
Speaker 2: We know that this Bengals offense is not what it
Speaker 2: was built up to be in the preseason, but you
Speaker 2: saw that vintage Derrick Henry touchdown run where he just
Speaker 2: pushed defenders to the side. You know, they had that
Speaker 2: very bad game against Cleveland a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 2: but Cleveland's defense has also been exceptional this year. So
Speaker 2: I think the Titans could potentially be in obviously in
Speaker 2: this race for the AFC South and think that they'll
Speaker 2: take call him the win against India this Sunday.
Speaker 1: One of the best stores in the NFL has to
Speaker 1: be the Houston Texans. They are two and two heading
Speaker 1: to Atlanta, coming off a loss, coming off a long
Speaker 1: plane ride back home. Right now, still Atlanta is two
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites in this one. Forty two
Speaker 1: is the number if you like the under on DK.
Speaker 1: But you can get forty one at points bet plus
Speaker 1: one twenty five if you like the Houston Texas for
Speaker 1: the upset. Now, look, Sam, when you beat the Pittsburgh Steelers,
Speaker 1: that's gotta be like the b in your bonnet, right
Speaker 1: the feather in your cap or whatever other head where
Speaker 1: you know the comment I want to make here, But
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans I think have something fun and special
Speaker 1: going on. Does it carry with them on the road
Speaker 1: to Atlanta. That's the question.
Speaker 2: It does for sure. It The better quarterback in CJ.
Speaker 2: Stroud is getting the points. Yeah, it is as easy
Speaker 2: as that he is. You know, he's lighting it up.
Speaker 2: You may not have passed the S two cognition test,
Speaker 2: but he's certainly passing the eye test on the film.
Speaker 2: I mean he is playing lights out again. People thought
Speaker 2: he'd take a step back against this Pittsburgh defense, which
Speaker 2: has shown to have some holes in it at this point,
Speaker 2: but again putting up that much yardage and making these
Speaker 2: defenses look silly weak after a week, he got to
Speaker 2: buy in at this point.
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, how do you want to buy into
Speaker 1: this game with CJ. Stroud? You want to just take
Speaker 1: him outright? Do you want to go ahead? Because if you,
Speaker 1: if you do, want to go ahead, take him on
Speaker 1: the moneyliner a game plus one twenty five just to
Speaker 1: win this football game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it out right.
Speaker 3: And the Falcons were the darlings of people in the
Speaker 3: preseason to win the NFC South, and I think people
Speaker 3: should maybe be second guessing that because you know, once
Speaker 3: again we're in the situation where Arthur Smith is not
Speaker 3: utilizing his best offensive talent to maximum capacity.
Speaker 4: Sam said it.
Speaker 3: I mean, there is a decisive quarterback advantage for the
Speaker 3: Texans here and making CJ. Stroud's performance so far all
Speaker 3: the more impressive the fact that he's got like none
Speaker 3: of his starting offensive linemen playing right now, well maybe
Speaker 3: one three are on ir and Laramie Tunsel didn't play
Speaker 3: either on Sunday. So they picked their teeth with the
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Steelers. I mean, they absolutely destroyed the Steelers on Sunday.
Speaker 3: That was not even a close game.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to do a dealer. Just check on
Speaker 1: Bogman tonight when we do.
Speaker 4: I know, man, I really.
Speaker 1: See it's okay.
Speaker 3: And like, I don't think the Texans are capable of
Speaker 3: being in a letdown spot right now. They're just too
Speaker 3: young for that. And like ta Meco Ryans is, he's
Speaker 3: doing such a good job with this team, like they're
Speaker 3: they entered Week four third in special Teams DVOA. The
Speaker 3: defense like we thought they were going to be under
Speaker 3: man but the defense is overachieved. The offense is tremendously overachieving. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I like Houston more. I think they're the better team.
Speaker 1: While Pat was talking that plus money went to even
Speaker 1: by the way, so just saying like that's all right,
Speaker 1: people are in on it. They must have been, you know,
Speaker 1: somehow listening live. Maybe there's a listening device in this room.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I just saw that happen over
Speaker 1: at betting Pros. So get in while the getting's good
Speaker 1: because the word might be turning of this game as
Speaker 1: people sit back and start to marinate about ZJ. Stroud
Speaker 1: and what they've seen so far. We haven't seen a
Speaker 1: win yet from the Carolina Panthers. They are zero and four.
Speaker 1: They are eight and a half point underdogs right now
Speaker 1: on FanDuel going to the Detroit Lions. We'll look really strong.
Speaker 1: We'll have some extra rest, who got all their running
Speaker 1: backs back in healthy last week against the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 1: Forty four is the number on FanDuel right now. You
Speaker 1: get forty three and a half on the over over
Speaker 1: on bet MGM. If you like Carolina for the upset
Speaker 1: and I don't, it's plus three forty on the money line.
Speaker 1: But let's talk about this. Detroit looks really good. Pat
Speaker 1: This is a big number though, eight and a half
Speaker 1: pretty large. Are we that confident yet with the Detroit Lions,
Speaker 1: even against a winless Carolina Panther team, that they're going
Speaker 1: to cover that number?
Speaker 3: No, And maybe we should be. Our friend Derek Brown
Speaker 3: was just pointing out on a Fantasy Pros podcast how
Speaker 3: good this Detroit defense has been. And this has turned
Speaker 3: into a near elite run defense, and it's been pretty
Speaker 3: good against pass too. They're dialing up pressure. They made
Speaker 3: the Green Bay Packers offense look pretty inept for at
Speaker 3: least the first half of the Week three game on
Speaker 3: Thursday night. So I don't know, do we see a
Speaker 3: letdown game for the Lions after that big divisional win?
Speaker 4: Maybe maybe not.
Speaker 3: I don't know they've had extra extra prep time or
Speaker 3: will have had. I just I feel like we're due
Speaker 3: for a decent Bryce Young game which we have not gotten.
Speaker 3: Me like, no offenses looked so ragged, but I just like,
Speaker 3: I can't lay this many points with the Lions.
Speaker 4: I'm just not there.
Speaker 1: Yet, Sam, Like I said, there's a couple early games.
Speaker 1: I really like. This one is another one where we
Speaker 1: spoke about earlier where I feel like, if you wait,
Speaker 1: this one's going to grow bigger and it could even
Speaker 1: start to you know, scratch nine and a half or
Speaker 1: even ten. That's I think when I would bet Carolina.
Speaker 1: Do you agree or disagree?
Speaker 4: I do.
Speaker 2: I mean this is a slightly lower total. It's around
Speaker 2: forty three, forty four points right now, so if it
Speaker 2: gets out to ten, then I think Carolina is certainly
Speaker 2: the side to take. The thing is that the Lions
Speaker 2: should be able to get ahead early and then hold
Speaker 2: that league against one of the leagues, if not the
Speaker 2: league's worst rushing defense in EPA per play. Carolina just
Speaker 2: can't really stop anyone right now. Obviously had a somewhat
Speaker 2: decent game against Minnesota, but I just think that Detroit
Speaker 2: will be able to get a lead early and then
Speaker 2: continue to run the ball with David Montgomery like they
Speaker 2: did this past week.
Speaker 1: Now, we don't have definitive news yet, but it would
Speaker 1: certainly see that Kenny Pickett is in danger, I believe
Speaker 1: of missing. Is that safe to say everybody in danger
Speaker 1: of missing Week five? Can I say that I can?
Speaker 1: Okay good in danger of missing Week five? They are
Speaker 1: at home with potentially Mitchell Trubisky being there. They are
Speaker 1: four point home underdogs coming in here on points bet
Speaker 1: over on the on their side against the Baltimore Ravens
Speaker 1: who had a big win in Cleveland. Again no Deshaun Watson,
Speaker 1: so we want to take it out of that, but
Speaker 1: you get Baltimore minus two and a half right now
Speaker 1: at bet Rivers. The number for this game obviously slugfest
Speaker 1: typical AFC North forty on points bet forty one on
Speaker 1: sugar House. If you like the under if you like
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh to figure it out with mister Bisky plus one
Speaker 1: sixty of points. Bet that's the number here. So it's
Speaker 1: been a very weird year so far. I would say
Speaker 1: it was a strange September sam for this division. I
Speaker 1: think overall, I think it's safe to say we thought
Speaker 1: this was going to be the Juggernaut Division and it's
Speaker 1: starting to look like is Can anybody stay healthy and
Speaker 1: win this thing? It's a great opportunity for the Baltimore
Speaker 1: Ravens to handle their business against a down and out
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steeler team. Will they do that? And do you
Speaker 1: want to hop on this line now before people have
Speaker 1: more time to think about what Pittsburgh isn't doing well
Speaker 1: or doesn't have for this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I hate to say hip, but the
Speaker 2: line has already moved out. It looks like it's at
Speaker 2: minus four and a half for the Ravens right now.
Speaker 2: And this is probably probably one of my biggest conviction
Speaker 2: plays of the week, taking Baltimore with the points and
Speaker 2: the points it's the Steelers defense again I mentioned it earlier,
Speaker 2: does not look like it really was what we thought
Speaker 2: it would be. Baltimore just put up a great offensive
Speaker 2: performance against Cleveland, who again we I think still think
Speaker 2: is a phenomenal defense, and the Pittsburgh offense is just
Speaker 2: so underwhelming. I mean, even if you get Mitch Trubisky,
Speaker 2: which might be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett at this point,
Speaker 2: or at least it's something different.
Speaker 1: Careful, you never know comes back, Todgen.
Speaker 2: The Baltimore defense has been playing exceptionally well, and again
Speaker 2: you can look at some of their opponents that they've faced,
Speaker 2: but you have the schedule that you have and the
Speaker 2: way that they're stopping some of these opposing offenses is
Speaker 2: very impressive, especially with the missing players they've had.
Speaker 1: Pat Your thoughts and feelings about Baltimore Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Joe, you mentioned h Kenny Pickett was in danger
Speaker 3: missing this game. Would you say he's in grave danger
Speaker 3: of missing this job.
Speaker 4: You're wearing.
Speaker 1: You're wearing a.
Speaker 4: Top gun T shirt. I had to do a Tom
Speaker 4: Cruise EF.
Speaker 1: That's there. I do podcasts or people die. That's it.
Speaker 1: That's where I stand on a wall and I do
Speaker 1: shows all day. That's what I do. You want to bet,
Speaker 1: go download the betting pros app. That's what you do. Otherwise,
Speaker 1: don't tell me how to do my job. It's a
Speaker 1: little few good men, everybody, just in case, just in case,
Speaker 1: you go ahead, packed titu off.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't know if I've ever seen
Speaker 3: a Mike Tomlin Steelers team look this disheveled before, Like
Speaker 3: they just don't look bad. And Tomlin has Someone asked
Speaker 3: him if they were going to be changes made this week,
Speaker 3: and he stated very affirmatively, yes, there would be changes
Speaker 3: this week. I don't know what that means, but I
Speaker 3: don't think this can be repaired. And one of the
Speaker 3: few things that the Steelers have had working for them,
Speaker 3: at least up until Week four was their pass rush.
Speaker 3: They were third in pressure rate going into week four
Speaker 3: and first in sacks. Couldn't get to CJ. Stroud at
Speaker 3: all despite that injury riddled Texans offensive line, and Lamar
Speaker 3: Jackson has been getting the ball out really quickly and
Speaker 3: neutralizing pressure like that has worked fabulously well with Todd
Speaker 3: Monkin redoing this Ravens offense. So yeah, I like the
Speaker 3: Ravens here. I would play this up to five. I
Speaker 3: have no confidence in the Steelers at this point.
Speaker 1: Sorry, Scott Bogman, Well, I mean I think Scott would
Speaker 1: agree with you knowing Bogs, he believed he might have
Speaker 1: less confidence. Speaking of little confidence, we're gonna talk about
Speaker 1: the Patriots next, but before we do, just a reminder.
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Speaker 1: ride and again. Free stuff. Free stuff is great, all right, Pat,
Speaker 1: I've been loathing to get to this game, but here
Speaker 1: we are, denw Engo. Patriots are one and three. Matthew
Speaker 1: Judon is hurt. The offense looks terrible. Somehow, I don't
Speaker 1: know how, but somehow they are still one point favorites
Speaker 1: at home against the New Orleans Saints. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I just this makes my head hurt. This line is
Speaker 1: completely wrong, Pat, and I don't know what I have
Speaker 1: to do about this, but give me New Orleans all
Speaker 1: the time in this game. New Orleans at plus one
Speaker 1: oh five on the money line, yes, please? The total
Speaker 1: obviously where you think it is. It's thirty nine and
Speaker 1: a half floating between that and thirty nine. To me,
Speaker 1: it's New Orleans just going there and handing New England
Speaker 1: because I think New England's just done.
Speaker 4: It could be, Joe, and I can understand.
Speaker 3: I mean, look how bad Mac Jones was against a
Speaker 3: very good Dallas defense, and the Saints defense is pretty
Speaker 3: good too. But I just don't know if I can
Speaker 3: take the Saints confidently when I'm not totally convinced in
Speaker 3: their ability to put up points like that. Passing game
Speaker 3: just didn't look good yesterday, has has sputtered at times
Speaker 3: this year, and man going into New England as you know,
Speaker 3: a road favorite. I can't do it if it was
Speaker 3: a Tom Brown, I know, I know. And they have
Speaker 3: no Matthew Judah. That does take some of.
Speaker 1: The the secondaries all hurt. Everybody named name Jones except
Speaker 1: Mac is hurt on this football team. It's a it's
Speaker 1: a problem.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And I don't want to bet the Patriots in this one, Joe,
Speaker 3: But I don't really want to bet the Saints either, Sam.
Speaker 1: I want to bet the Saints. In fact, I already have.
Speaker 1: So what do you think about this one?
Speaker 2: Tell me if I'm right or wrong, I would employ
Speaker 2: you to just have some fun with it. Joe. I
Speaker 2: can't say far far, far enough away from this game.
Speaker 2: I mean, if it even gets onto red zone this Sunday,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna use it as an opportunity to go to
Speaker 2: the bathroom. It just the Saints offense does not look
Speaker 2: good either. These defenses are somewhat decent. I mean, they've
Speaker 2: held their own in some situations. But I you know,
Speaker 2: I bet the over in the Patriots Cowboys game because
Speaker 2: both of those teams play pretty fast, and it still
Speaker 2: didn't get there, even though it was twenty eight to
Speaker 2: three at the half. I mean that the Patriots, even
Speaker 2: trying to get some zappy hour match again, couldn't do anything.
Speaker 1: They got nothing. They got no playmakers on offense, they
Speaker 1: got no pass rush without Judah on the secondary's banged
Speaker 1: up is a hot mess. New Orleans Saints boocket. There
Speaker 1: you go. I'll stand on my island. That's fine. Miami
Speaker 1: Dolphins at nine and a half point favorites on DK
Speaker 1: against the New York Giants. We'll see what the Giants
Speaker 1: have for us tonight. We also don't know definitively if
Speaker 1: we get Saquon Barkley back or not again. High angle
Speaker 1: sprains take weeks. He has had now weeks, he's probably
Speaker 1: unlikely to play tonight. Forty nine and a half is
Speaker 1: the number here, plus three ninety for the Giants upset.
Speaker 1: This is a tough situation here because you know, obviously
Speaker 1: Miami did struggle in Buffalo, but this feels like they
Speaker 1: get right back on track. The question is sam is
Speaker 1: the nine too many points?
Speaker 2: It's too many points for me to bet it. I
Speaker 2: think it's right right about where I would have it
Speaker 2: it's gonna be the Giants on a short week. They'll
Speaker 2: be traveling to Miami to play down there, and I
Speaker 2: think this is going to be just a huge bounce
Speaker 2: back spot for the Dolphins offense, who struggled quite a
Speaker 2: bit on Sunday against the Bill. So I make it
Speaker 2: about minus nine and a half for Miami, but it's
Speaker 2: still it's a lot to lay there.
Speaker 1: Fitz, what about the total in this one too? Forty
Speaker 1: nine and a half? I mean, I feel like Miami's
Speaker 1: so explosive and they got held in check a little
Speaker 1: bit last week obviously on Sunday, but the Giants have
Speaker 1: had problems holding anybody in check if you like.
Speaker 4: They have, Joe.
Speaker 3: And the only concern is that the Giants are going
Speaker 3: to do their part to get it over the total.
Speaker 3: That's my hang up on the total. I think Miami
Speaker 3: is going to do their part. And look, the Dolphins
Speaker 3: ran into a buzz saw in Buffalo. And the thing is, Joe,
Speaker 3: do we really think this Giants defense is capable of
Speaker 3: disrupting Miami's offensive machinery.
Speaker 4: The way Buffalo did on Sunday? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I don't think so either. So and on a short
Speaker 3: week of preparation and rest. Like, I think this is
Speaker 3: a great bounce back spot for the Dolphins. I'm happy
Speaker 3: to lay the points here.
Speaker 1: Fitzie and I were talking about this next game here
Speaker 1: before the show. Philadelphia four and oh five point favorites
Speaker 1: over on Caesars, five and a half on DK right
Speaker 1: now against Los Angeles Rams. They're going to travel to LA.
Speaker 1: I get all, like, you know, they got to travel
Speaker 1: and all this stuff, But forty six and a half
Speaker 1: is the number forty seven on DraftKings, four six and
Speaker 1: a half on FanDuel like LA for the upsets plus
Speaker 1: one eighty eight fits. I'm confident in the Eagles. I
Speaker 1: know a lot of people have lost some confidence in them.
Speaker 1: Feels like because they let the Commanders kind of you know,
Speaker 1: as excuse me, as Sam was saying earlier, they played
Speaker 1: down to the Commanders a little bit. Okay, fine, but
Speaker 1: maybe that's a good gut check for them. They came
Speaker 1: out victorious. Now you got to go to LA play
Speaker 1: football game here, and I think that the five is
Speaker 1: pretty generous. I like the Eagles in the five pap,
Speaker 1: But what do you think of this game?
Speaker 3: If you had showed me this total or this line
Speaker 3: in August show and told me that, like there were
Speaker 3: no major injuries to the Eagles affecting this line, Like
Speaker 3: I would have bet a mortgage payment on the Eagles here.
Speaker 3: But they have not been the wrecking ball that we
Speaker 3: thought they were going to be. The Rams have not
Speaker 3: been the pile of rubble we thought they were going
Speaker 3: to be. This is just a line I sort of
Speaker 3: look at and throw my hands in the air. I'm
Speaker 3: not sure what to do it. I mean, I could
Speaker 3: definitely envision a scenario where the Eagles blow out the Rams.
Speaker 3: I could envision a scenario where the Rams hang with
Speaker 3: the Eagles. What I'm worried about is the scenario where
Speaker 3: the Eagles are holding a comfortable lead, keeping the Rams
Speaker 3: at arm's length, and in a back door type of
Speaker 3: situation at the end of the game. So I just
Speaker 3: I'm walking away from this one.
Speaker 1: All right. So Patsy's four outcomes in this one, Sam,
Speaker 1: what do you see?
Speaker 2: I'd clean with the Eagles right now. Cooper cup is
Speaker 2: expected to resume practice this week, which is good, but
Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford did sustain a hip injury during the game
Speaker 2: against Indianapolis. It sounds like he will be fine. But
Speaker 2: just something to monitor throughout the week. Eagles offense hasn't
Speaker 2: looked tremendous by any means, but they're still holding their own.
Speaker 2: I think they've scored thirty plus points in multiple games
Speaker 2: so far this season. The Rams don't play a ton
Speaker 2: of man, but I think the Eagles offense should be
Speaker 2: able to work their way down the field easily enough.
Speaker 2: The over in this game is already getting steamed a ton.
Speaker 2: It's up to fifty points now, so we're expecting some
Speaker 2: shootout potential here and.
Speaker 1: Recovery Los Angeles, right, that's what we're also expecting. So
Speaker 1: we'll see what kind of impact that makes on this game.
Speaker 1: So if you like the over, you might want to
Speaker 1: bet it now before the number keeps move. In Cincinnati
Speaker 1: Bengals one in three, they I'd be saying that against
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals one and three now, the Cardinals at
Speaker 1: plus five or home underdogs. Sam I already took this
Speaker 1: last night when I was putting the show planned together.
Speaker 1: Forty two and a half is the number on Fandal
Speaker 1: forty two at sugar House plus one seventy five for
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals to win outright, So it's my lack
Speaker 1: of confidence right now. The Cincinnati Bengals. They're a much
Speaker 1: better theoretical team, but they are not a better team
Speaker 1: right now in terms of practicality. And Arizona has proven
Speaker 1: that they play hard. They're not a good football team,
Speaker 1: but they do play hard. So that's where this comes
Speaker 1: for me with the early value. But you think I'm
Speaker 1: a waft bass here. Do you think that Cincinnati just
Speaker 1: completely gets right here and no T Higgins and they
Speaker 1: just go out to Arizona and just you know, put
Speaker 1: a big hurting on them.
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think you're right here. I'm
Speaker 2: not touching it just because of like that smidge percent
Speaker 2: that Cincinnati actually is Cincinnati and they're going to be
Speaker 2: most likely without T. Higgins, which is a huge bummer.
Speaker 2: Arizona again has been very plucky this season. They had
Speaker 2: it within one score again San Francisco in second half
Speaker 2: this past weekend, then the game sort of got away
Speaker 2: from them.
Speaker 1: But they have about the Giants too. Look what they
Speaker 1: did to the Yeah, I mean same thing, and the
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys they beat them, Like when do we start
Speaker 1: giving the Cardinals a little credit.
Speaker 2: It's one of those things where, again you know, to
Speaker 2: Pat's point on the last game, if you would have
Speaker 2: told me that this was going to be the line
Speaker 2: by this point in the season, with you know, no
Speaker 2: major injuries to the Bengals save T Higgins, like I'd
Speaker 2: be smashing the Bengals. But it's with the way that
Speaker 2: offense looks it. It just I can't swallow that pill
Speaker 2: right now.
Speaker 1: Okay, Look, I understand. Look, I get it. It's hard
Speaker 1: to say things like the Houston Texans should be favored,
Speaker 1: and it's hard to say things like the Arizona Cardinals
Speaker 1: you should take those points because they're gonna battle. Pat.
Speaker 1: I'm ready, I'm here. I've seen enough in September. It's October.
Speaker 1: I've turned the page. It's not that I believe in
Speaker 1: the arason on a Cardinals so much as I believe
Speaker 1: in them enough, and I'm disbelieving in what I've seen
Speaker 1: en Cincinnati, especially that offensive line. They have played terribly
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 4: I'm with you, Joe.
Speaker 3: I hit the Cardinals when I first saw this line
Speaker 3: on Sunday Nights. Here's the thing, Joe, I think there's
Speaker 3: a decent chance we don't see Joe Burrow play this
Speaker 3: game like, in which case this line probably winds up
Speaker 3: being something close to a pick him. I mean, Burrow
Speaker 3: is just so clearly compromised right now, and it seems
Speaker 3: like coaching malpractice to keep running him out there when
Speaker 3: like he can't move in the pocket at all. And
Speaker 3: I just wonder if this is the week where Zach
Speaker 3: Taylor finally makes that concession and decides to do that,
Speaker 3: and if so, like, I want to be on this
Speaker 3: line before that happens. So even if Burrow does play
Speaker 3: Joe you said it, I mean Jonathan Gannon, Yes, he
Speaker 3: was a lightning rod for jokes and everything with his
Speaker 3: lesson inspiring inspirational speech before the start of the season.
Speaker 3: But man, like he's got these guys playing so hard
Speaker 3: you have to at least admire it. Like they are
Speaker 3: not gonna roll over for teams.
Speaker 1: It appears they are not, all right. The New York
Speaker 1: Jets one and two had the Denver one in three.
Speaker 1: Right now New York is one in three now two
Speaker 1: pardon me, three point underdogs right now. The New York
Speaker 1: Jets are going into Denver. That feels right. Forty's the
Speaker 1: number that feels right plus one thirty five for the
Speaker 1: Jets to win. Intriguing to me. But again it's the
Speaker 1: confidence of like, I know Zach Wilson did some things better,
Speaker 1: but still made enough mistakes where he gave the game
Speaker 1: away and the game got away from them. Pat, do
Speaker 1: you see any value here at this one? Now? I
Speaker 1: know Sam was running away from games, this is the
Speaker 1: one I'm running away from.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do see value.
Speaker 3: I want to bet the Jets on the money line,
Speaker 3: and because I still have a lot of faith in
Speaker 3: that defense, and I don't have a lot of faith
Speaker 3: in Zach Wilson. Although he did play better against the
Speaker 3: Chiefs on Sunday night, However, he is running into a
Speaker 3: Denver Broncos defense that nursed the Chicago Bears offense back
Speaker 3: to good health on Sunday, at least until you know,
Speaker 3: the Bears got into their mistake prone ways again in
Speaker 3: the second half. But I don't know what to believe
Speaker 3: in with Denver anymore. Like, I just don't think there's
Speaker 3: a lot to like here with them, and I think
Speaker 3: the Jets defense is gonna take it to them. So yeah,
Speaker 3: I want I want to bet the Jets. And we
Speaker 3: haven't seen Denver like do anything with home field advantage
Speaker 3: either this year. Like I mean, losing to the Raiders,
Speaker 3: losing to the Commanders. Yeah, give me the Jets here.
Speaker 1: By the way, that number for the Cardinals game is
Speaker 1: already at three, So if you like it, you better
Speaker 1: get it at Sugarhouse A plus five while it's still
Speaker 1: up there, because that's not gonna last much longer. Sam, again,
Speaker 1: this one scares me. Does it scare you?
Speaker 2: No? I'm with Pat. I think this is my sort
Speaker 2: of second big conviction play here. Going with the Jets.
Speaker 2: I think their defense is absolutely legit. Their raw numbers
Speaker 2: are not phenomenal, but when you consider the opponents they've
Speaker 2: faced in Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo and what they've
Speaker 2: done to sort of hold those offenses in check, I
Speaker 2: think it's incredibly impressive. Again, Pat mentioned it. We saw
Speaker 2: what the Broncos defense can do for one poor offense
Speaker 2: in Chicago, and I think they'll do the same thing
Speaker 2: for a Jets offense that again didn't look out of
Speaker 2: sorts and has, in my opinion, some better playmakers on
Speaker 2: offense as well.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next one here. I
Speaker 1: got the Kansasity Chiefs taking on the Minnesota Vikings. The
Speaker 1: number for this one's fifty two. Minnesota's defense is not great.
Speaker 1: We know that just because they beat the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1: I'm not getting all crazy about that Minnesota six point underdogs.
Speaker 1: I love a home underdog, but I don't know if
Speaker 1: I love them this much. Here your thoughts on this one,
Speaker 1: Kansas City and Minnesota, Sam.
Speaker 2: I'm laying the points with Kansas City. I think their
Speaker 2: offense again played not great against the Jets on Sunday
Speaker 2: Night Football, and the Vikings defense is not as good
Speaker 2: as the Jets defense. I think that the Kansas City
Speaker 2: Chiefs sorts are just gonna roll over them. Brian Floras
Speaker 2: Blitz is a ton, and I think Patrick Mahomes will
Speaker 2: be able to take advantage of the one on one
Speaker 2: receivers with those Blitz packages coming fits.
Speaker 1: Do you see this one the same way?
Speaker 3: I don't really see any betting value here, Joe. Maybe
Speaker 3: the over might intrigue me to some degree, but I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't like either side.
Speaker 1: Okay, I have it. Let's get to the last two
Speaker 1: games we have here. A big one Sunday Night Football,
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboy, San Francisco forty nine ers. They're in San
Speaker 1: France and Franz three and a half point favorites in
Speaker 1: this game. Forty five and a half is the number
Speaker 1: Dallas to win outright? Plus one sixty five? All right,
Speaker 1: here we go. Dallas rebounded. Now, Micah Parsons will check
Speaker 1: on his healthy and rolled his ankle in that game Sunday.
Speaker 1: But Dallas defense bounce back in a big way after
Speaker 1: a disappointing game. Dak Prescott's already got it on his
Speaker 1: craw about the San Francisco forty nine Ers. He already
Speaker 1: heard stuff after the game last night. So here we are,
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers undefeated Dallas three and one, pat. How
Speaker 1: do you see this game?
Speaker 3: I see it as a great game that I do
Speaker 3: not want to beat Joe and I just like I
Speaker 3: think the line in the total are spot on. And
Speaker 3: maybe Dallas has shown a few more blemishes than San
Speaker 3: Francisco has to this point. But let's not forget Dallas
Speaker 3: really should have beaten the forty nine ers in San
Speaker 3: Francisco in the playoffs last year. Like I thought, the
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers were lucky to escape that game with
Speaker 3: a win. So I think these two teams are still
Speaker 3: reasonably even matched. I think maybe the forty nine Ers
Speaker 3: are a little bit better, but I don't want to
Speaker 3: lay three and a half to the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Fair enough, fair enough to me, this is a fun
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown score one like you're looking for some individual
Speaker 1: props maybe I mean CMC scoring a touchdown feels like
Speaker 1: a lock every single week, Sam, But what do you
Speaker 1: think about this when any early value? See gonna wait
Speaker 1: and see how it unfolds.
Speaker 2: I'm with fits here, I'm gonna wait on it. I
Speaker 2: don't think that San Francisco will get down to minus three,
Speaker 2: but if it does, that's when I would certainly jump
Speaker 2: on it. I think it'll stick right around three and
Speaker 2: a half for the majority of the week, unless we
Speaker 2: again hear something with potentially Michael Parsons. I think he
Speaker 2: could cause that to obviously move in in favor of
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. But I'm laying off it for
Speaker 2: right now and just looking forward to a great Sunday
Speaker 2: night football matchup.
Speaker 1: Last one Monday night football. Your Packers Boys are go
Speaker 1: ahead and taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders
Speaker 1: can get a plus one and a half over on
Speaker 1: fan Do we get Green Bay a plus one over
Speaker 1: on DK? Right now? Forty three and a half is
Speaker 1: the number. This one's very tight here, Sam, I don't
Speaker 1: know about this one. I'm not sure exactly why this
Speaker 1: line is where it is because I'm far more confident
Speaker 1: in green Bay than I am in Las Vegas. But
Speaker 1: what do you think?
Speaker 4: I agree?
Speaker 2: And Green Bay has a lot going for them. Obviously,
Speaker 2: played on Thursday night this past week and are playing
Speaker 2: on Monday night this upcoming week, so they get eleven
Speaker 2: days of rest, eleven days of preparation for Las Vegas.
Speaker 2: It could be enough time for Luke Musgrave to clear
Speaker 2: concussion protocol. Hopefully they get Eldon Jenkins back, Alexander and
Speaker 2: Defandre Campbell. So the health is definitely trending in the
Speaker 2: right direction with that extra rest, excuse me, extra rest.
Speaker 2: Las Vegas is just eighteenth and pressure eight this year,
Speaker 2: so I don't think we see quite the reckoning on
Speaker 2: the Packers offensive line that we saw against Detroit Thursday night.
Speaker 2: So I love Green Bay in this spot. I'm laying
Speaker 2: the one and a half points with them.
Speaker 1: Pat your thoughts on green Bay Vegas. To close it.
Speaker 3: Out, I'm going to continue my season long fade of
Speaker 3: Josh McDaniels and the Raiders, and like I do think
Speaker 3: green Bay is the better team. And even though I'm
Speaker 3: assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be back from
Speaker 3: his concussion for the Raiders this week, Like, are they
Speaker 3: going to have a home field advantage because green Bay
Speaker 3: fans travel really well, I suspect there will be. This
Speaker 3: is going to be like a neutral site game, and
Speaker 3: I don't want to.
Speaker 1: Take too much out of them lose it against the Lions.
Speaker 1: I think the Lions are a very strong football team
Speaker 1: this year, very hungry football team too. So I'm with you, guys.
Speaker 1: I think Green Bay is the confident one. And remember everybody,
Speaker 1: make sure you set those line alerts over on your
Speaker 1: Betting Pros app so you know when on the line
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Speaker 1: and this is one that also might be changing as
Speaker 1: more people have time to think about it. A lot
Speaker 1: of these lines are going to change in the next
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