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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud?

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Speaker 2: Read enough?

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Speaker 1: No running again?

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, slendid.

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Speaker 2: Sixteing, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 2: sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 2: your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 5: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 1: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 5: The love is left too, the wide eyed, drilled fibus

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Speaker 5: how old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 6: Hello, ry one, and welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer

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Speaker 6: betting podcast from the Action Network. Money is Michael Eibuff

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Speaker 6: and joining me for this hour Euro four quarterfinal betting preview.

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Speaker 6: BJ Cunningham, fresh from watching Team USA bow out of

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Speaker 6: Copa America in Kansas City, and Sam Ingram, who was

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Speaker 6: at a very different atmosphere. He's fresh from a very

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Speaker 6: different atmosphere at Glastonbury. My weekend was much more normal.

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Speaker 6: I was in a pool at one point, but that's

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Speaker 6: about it. But that's by the bye. It's time to

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Speaker 6: get into Spain versus Germany. This is the first of

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Speaker 6: four quarterfinal matches coming away Friday and Saturday, twelve pm

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Speaker 6: Eastern time. Kickoff for this one five pm over in England.

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Speaker 6: For Sam, this is the headliner. It's such a fun

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Speaker 6: matchup to get involved.

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Speaker 1: Into, handicap to watch. It's going to be great.

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Speaker 6: You could argue these have been the two best teams

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Speaker 6: in the tournament and if things were just and fair

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Speaker 6: in this world, they'd be meeting in the final. But

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Speaker 6: things aren't justin fair in this world. England is playing

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Speaker 6: played Slovakia and then and then they get to play Switzerland.

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Speaker 6: Germany and Spain have to deal with one another. That's

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Speaker 6: just how it goes in these tournaments. And to me

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Speaker 6: it more intriguing is the book makers are having a

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Speaker 6: tough time separating these two teams. Spain is a slight

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Speaker 6: favorite to advance minus one twenty five. Germany is an

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Speaker 6: even money underdog. The three way line at bet three

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Speaker 6: sixty five is Spain plus one sixty two Germany plus

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Speaker 6: one seventy five in the draw at plus two to

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Speaker 6: twenty Sam I think this one has all the makings

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Speaker 6: of one of those really hyped matches. It'll be one

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Speaker 6: for the people who love to sit back and watch

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Speaker 6: tactical nuance. But I think it's going to be a stalemate.

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Speaker 6: I like the draw. I think that this match is

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Speaker 6: going to be a nail biter in the one to

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Speaker 6: one fashion, the one one sense of the word.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so two of the big boys probably would have

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Speaker 5: made a cracking final. Actually, two of the tournament's heavyweights,

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Speaker 5: two of the most impressive nations out in Germany this summer.

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Speaker 5: You'd say Spain have exceeded most people's expectations. I love

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Speaker 5: everything your mau and Williams have to offer out why.

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Speaker 5: The rest of the squad is packed with elite experience

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Speaker 5: and know how, and they're so good technically as you'd

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Speaker 5: expect from a Spanish set up. They've been overly clinical too,

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Speaker 5: which certainly helps in tournament football when chances are few

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Speaker 5: and far between. Germany mining BJ's anti post pick started

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Speaker 5: the tournament superbly. Switzerland posed a tough test, but they

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Speaker 5: found a way and then swatted Denmark aside in the

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Speaker 5: round of sixteen, which would have proved tricky for a number.

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Speaker 4: Of nations like England.

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Speaker 5: This is now a real test for the squad and

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Speaker 5: Julian nargusmand I see a fixture one where either side

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Speaker 5: will butt head, not give too much away, like you mentioned, Michael.

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Speaker 4: For large periods of the game. It shouldn't be a

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Speaker 4: massively open encounter.

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Speaker 5: I don't think unless we see an early goo like

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Speaker 5: we did in Austria versus Turkey last night, I think

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Speaker 5: it'll be tight. I think it'll be nervy, like these

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Speaker 5: meetings often are at the business end of a tournament

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Speaker 5: when two big, big nations are involved. Like you said,

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Speaker 5: the bookmakers can't split the two sides. The drawers at

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Speaker 5: plus two twenty, which I think is a live runner

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Speaker 5: home advantage, and the fact it's in Stuttgart, which is

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Speaker 5: historically a very good venue for Germany, makes me lean

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Speaker 5: towards them if I had to choose. They'll need to

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Speaker 5: win that midfield battle against Spain. If they don't, they're

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Speaker 5: in trouble. And interestingly, no host nation has ever been

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Speaker 5: eliminated from the quarter final stage of the European Championship,

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Speaker 5: and this is Germany's nineteenth quarter final in both the

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Speaker 5: World Cup and the Euros, more than any other nation

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Speaker 5: on the continent. In the last game for Spain, we

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Speaker 5: saw the Georgians be brave press the Spanish high.

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Speaker 4: At the pitch.

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Speaker 5: They disrupted the build up play and that progression into midfield.

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Speaker 5: Nagosman would have if I saw that, Nagosman would have

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Speaker 5: spotted that, and we might see something similar from Germany

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Speaker 5: in the quarter final. Now, the Germans of school ten

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Speaker 5: goos across their four matches at the Euros. That's already

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Speaker 5: the joint most in a single edition of the Euros

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Speaker 5: ever for Germany. But looking at the betten Expert Euro's

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Speaker 5: betting guide that've got in front of me, since the

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Speaker 5: Euros began in nineteen sixty, there have been ninety one

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Speaker 5: knockout matches with an average goals per ninety strike rate

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Speaker 5: of two point three eight goals per game.

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Speaker 4: Since the millennium, thirty eight of fifty.

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Speaker 5: One games have gone under two point five goals, and

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Speaker 5: specifically at this stage in the quarter finals, fourteen of

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Speaker 5: twenty four quarter finals since the year two thousand have

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Speaker 5: gone under two point five goals. And that's a two

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Speaker 5: percent return on investment. Not huge in terms of ROI,

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Speaker 5: but it just shows that these games at this stage

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Speaker 5: of the tournament aren't exactly full of goals. So we

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Speaker 5: can get under two point five goals here at minus

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Speaker 5: one twenty on bet three six five, and like with

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Speaker 5: the likely route, I think this game will take with

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Speaker 5: the underline at a price that I'm happy to back

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Speaker 5: it at, and with it being a quarter final between

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Speaker 5: two big, big nations, it's one that I'm going to take.

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Speaker 5: I'm a little bit concerned because both teams have really

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Speaker 5: good attacking components at either end of the pitch, and

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Speaker 5: if you line them up one verse, one player player,

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Speaker 5: I think that those attacking lineups get the better of

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Speaker 5: the defense a lot of the time. So that's a concern,

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Speaker 5: but I'm hopeful that those situations are few and far

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Speaker 5: between and we don't get too many of those kind

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Speaker 5: of high colleague ghost scoring opportunity.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, on the two point five ghosts minus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I you know, Michael, I'll be honest, it's kind

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Speaker 2: of bothering me that this line is will pick them,

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Speaker 2: and I don't know why Germany is not a favorite,

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Speaker 2: I'll be flat honest, because so from a tactical perspective,

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Speaker 2: I would probably guess that Spain's going to be the

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Speaker 2: one that's holding the majority of the possession in this match.

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Speaker 2: But we've seen in this tournament so far that for

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Speaker 2: the first time since Euro two thousand and eight final

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Speaker 2: that Spain has held under fifty percent possession in a match.

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Speaker 2: It was against Croatia, and yes, you could say that

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Speaker 2: they were up three nothing, they seeded control and you know,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't really mean much, but it also gives kind

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Speaker 2: of a glimpse into what Spain is like when they

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Speaker 2: aren't holding majority of the wall, when they have to

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Speaker 2: defend for over fifty percent of the match.

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Speaker 3: And if that's the case here against.

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Speaker 2: Germany, well, Croatia created well over to expect the goals

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Speaker 2: against them. They were really threatening in transition and that

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Speaker 2: is something that nobody has really other than Croatia, has

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Speaker 2: really punished Spain for you know, throughout qualifying they were

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Speaker 2: super vulnerable in transition attacks, especially balls over the top. Well,

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Speaker 2: we've seen from Germany throughout this tournament that they're very

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Speaker 2: capable of being very versatile in possession. They can build

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Speaker 2: out of the back, but also using both Evertz and

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Speaker 2: Musiala as you know, kind of decoys or guys to

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Speaker 2: move defenders out of position to allow runners to go

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Speaker 2: through and play those balls over the top. They've been

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Speaker 2: very successful with those, so I think Germany can have

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Speaker 2: a lot of success with that. Now, if they don't

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Speaker 2: hold a majority of possession, I think you'll see nilsmen

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Speaker 2: sit in some type of four four two or four

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Speaker 2: to two four mid block and make it really hard

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Speaker 2: for Spain to play through the middle. Because the teams

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Speaker 2: that they've played so far, you know, for majority of

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Speaker 2: the match, some of them have tried to come out

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Speaker 2: and press Spain, like Sam said, Georgia did for a

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Speaker 2: little bit, but a majority of the teams outside of

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Speaker 2: Croatia have sat in a lower block. While I was

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Speaker 2: Croatia set in a mid to higher block and actually

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Speaker 2: caused Spain some problems. You know, in that match, they

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Speaker 2: had a pass for defensive action of ten and Spain's

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Speaker 2: built up completion percentage it's only eighty three percent typically

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Speaker 2: Spain's around ninety two ninety three percent, So like that's

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Speaker 2: a pretty drastic difference for a team that actually played

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Speaker 2: a mid block against them, But just from a market perspective,

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Speaker 2: So these two met at the twenty twenty two World

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Speaker 2: Cup and that line closed right around where this line

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Speaker 2: is at right now. Spain closed at plus one fifty,

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Speaker 2: Germany was at plus one seventy. I think we all

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Speaker 2: can agree that both teams have gotten better since the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two World Cup, and I think it's a

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Speaker 2: fair statement to say that both these teams are even. Right,

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Speaker 2: So why is in Germany getting credit for home field advantage?

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Speaker 2: They should be closer to plus one thirty plus one

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Speaker 2: thirty five. And it's really bothering me right now that

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Speaker 2: this is sitting at a pick em. So I have

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Speaker 2: Germany projected at about minus one thirty five to advance

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Speaker 2: because of that home field advantage, because I truly do

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Speaker 2: believe from a power ratings perspective that these two teams

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Speaker 2: are even. In fact, since September of twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: Germany has a plus one point six expect a goal

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Speaker 2: differential turn per ninety minutes and non friendlies Spain is

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Speaker 2: at plus one point two four. So I really like

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Speaker 2: Germany to advance here. I think it's it's bo It's

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Speaker 2: just really bothering me that this is a pick them

187
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Speaker 2: to advance. So I think that they should be getting

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Speaker 2: credit for home field advantage and they should be a favorite.

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Speaker 3: So I like Germany to advance. At mist one time.

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Speaker 6: It does feel a little bit like, you know that

191
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Speaker 6: the betting market was just like Germany verus Spain quarterfinals

192
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Speaker 6: here twenty twenty. Just make it a coin flip, like,

193
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Speaker 6: we don't need to overthink it. Just set the price

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Speaker 6: at a coin flip and we'll go there. Like I said,

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Speaker 6: I like to draw. I also like this game to

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Speaker 6: go into penalties. I think that this is just the

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Speaker 6: word Nervey that Sam kept using. I think it's the

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Speaker 6: way I look at it. Maybe the teams themselves, but

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Speaker 6: just the atmosphere and it just feels like one of

200
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Speaker 6: those classic one ones that neither team can maybe get

201
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Speaker 6: to nudge ahead, and we're we're talking about, you know,

202
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Speaker 6: penalties deciding between who, you know, these two teams who

203
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Speaker 6: have been the best in the field so far advancing.

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Speaker 6: So that's plus four fifty. I think that's fine bet

205
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Speaker 6: as well. The three pm Eastern kickoff. It's amazing how

206
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Speaker 6: this draws has, you know, panned out. Obviously we got

207
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Speaker 6: Germany and Spain and then Portugal and France on one half,

208
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Speaker 6: Turkey versus Netherlands and England versus Switzerland on the other.

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Speaker 6: So Portugal and France this is the three pm Eastern

210
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Speaker 6: kickoff on Friday. France is a favorite you'd imagine that,

211
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Speaker 6: you know, that makes a lot of sense given what

212
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Speaker 6: we've seen out of Portugal in their last two matches

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Speaker 6: minus one fifty two advance on Las Blau, the Navigators

214
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Speaker 6: coming back plus one twenty to get through to the

215
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Speaker 6: semi final. Three way line at BET three six five

216
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Speaker 6: has Portugal plus two forty, France plus one thirty five,

217
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Speaker 6: and the draw here is plus two one hundred. I'm

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Speaker 6: I feel like I can just use the exact same

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Speaker 6: argument I had for Belgium and apply it to Portugal here,

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Speaker 6: which is I just I'm not convinced by France at all,

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Speaker 6: and I think Portugal has so much more to give,

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Speaker 6: So I'm really tempted to do it again. But that

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Speaker 6: didn't work for me with the Belgium call. It turns

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Speaker 6: out I was crazy backing them to go on a

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Speaker 6: run here. That was a pretty poor call on my part.

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Speaker 6: But I just like this Portugal team after their first

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Speaker 6: two matches, was up there with the favorites to win

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Speaker 6: the tournament, and they lose to Georgia in a meaningless match,

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Speaker 6: didn't cover themselves in glory against Slovenia either, and it

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Speaker 6: looks like the market is out on them against and

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Speaker 6: I think it would make a lot of sense had

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Speaker 6: they if they were playing Germany or Spain. But France

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Speaker 6: has not really impressed me at all.

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Speaker 3: Beja.

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Speaker 6: They've got what one goal from open play in this

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Speaker 6: tournament and it came off a double doint at double

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Speaker 6: deflection against Belgium.

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Speaker 1: Like they couldn't get anything going. So if Portugal.

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Speaker 6: Scores, like if they convert finally, they've missed nine big

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Speaker 6: gooring chances so far in this tournament. If they score,

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Speaker 6: how is France getting to two here? And is it

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Speaker 6: just the Portuguese defense just can't handle him. Perhaps you

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Speaker 6: can make that argument, but they they couldn't get by Belgium.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so.

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Speaker 2: Well there's a man standing on the touch line that

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Speaker 2: might have something to say about that, Michael, because Roberts Martinez,

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's done it again. I mean, this Portugal

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Speaker 2: system is the most disjointed, unbalanced system that you have

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Speaker 2: ever seen since maybe his Belgium teams at the World Cup.

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Speaker 2: So Portugal this entire tournament, they you know I said

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Speaker 2: in the last podcast, and remain true against Slovenia, They're

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Speaker 2: not even trying to play through the middle. They're just

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Speaker 2: funneling the ball wide and they're just sending crosses and

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Speaker 2: they're just kind of hoping for the best. So far

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Speaker 2: this tournament, they have completed seventeen crosses in the penalty

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Speaker 2: which is the most of anybody in the tournament.

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Speaker 3: So that's very impressive. Right.

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Speaker 2: Well, they've attempted one hundred and twenty crosses, which is

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Speaker 2: thirty more than anybody else in the entire tournament, which

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Speaker 2: is crazy. Now, the biggest aspect of Portugal that Georgia

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Speaker 2: exploited that Slovenia really wasn't able to because Slovenia just

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Speaker 2: kept attacking from way too deep is they are incredibly

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Speaker 2: vulnerable for transition breaks. And if you know anything about

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Speaker 2: France and so far this tournament, a lot of teams

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Speaker 2: have played France the way that you're supposed to do,

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Speaker 2: which is, do not allow them to get in transition

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Speaker 2: by any means necessary, sit deep and force France to

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Speaker 2: break you down, which is exactly how Belgium came out.

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Speaker 2: But they did have an incredibly high expected threat of

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Speaker 2: one point nine. They had fourteen penalty box shots, so yes,

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Speaker 2: so you could say they were inefficient. But again, like

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Speaker 2: we said in the last podcast, like France has vastly

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Speaker 2: underperformed in front of net. Yes, they haven't technically scored

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Speaker 2: a goal themselves from open play, but they have created

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Speaker 2: six point one non penalty expected goals, which is third

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Speaker 2: most of anybody in this tournament. Now, if Portugal is

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Speaker 2: going to come with the same setup and they're going

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Speaker 2: to try to control possession and they're going to try

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Speaker 2: to funnel the ball out wide, they're probably gonna start Pollino, which,

280
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Speaker 2: you know, other than him, they have no ball stopping

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Speaker 2: in the midfield out wide, and then once you get

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Speaker 2: past Paulina, well, forty one year old Pepe is incredibly

283
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Speaker 2: vulnerable to the pace that France has coming at him.

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Speaker 2: So I think that France is really well set up here.

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Speaker 2: They've been you know, the underrated part about France is like, yes,

286
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Speaker 2: they've been inefficient in front of net, but they've been

287
00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 2: so so good defensively. I'd say probably the second best

288
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Speaker 2: defense in this tournament besides England. Saliva and Upa mccono

289
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Speaker 2: have been shutting down opposing strikers they did at Lukaku,

290
00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,520
Speaker 2: Cho Many and Conte are making it incredibly difficult for

291
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Speaker 2: teams to play through the middle of the pitch. They're

292
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Speaker 2: winning the ball at a high rate. France has the

293
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 2: highest ground dual win rate in this tournament, which just

294
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Speaker 2: shows how good they've been, and that's stopping the ball

295
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:45,480
Speaker 2: and preventing teams from creating chances. Only two shots this

296
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 2: entire tournament. France have conceded a next year rating over

297
00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 2: point two. So with how inefficient Portugal has been inside

298
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Speaker 2: the final third, I really like France at plus one forty.

299
00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,520
Speaker 2: I projected them at plus one seventeen. I also kind

300
00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,320
Speaker 2: of like over too at minus one fifteen. I think

301
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Speaker 2: that's incredibly low total for how much individual quality is

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Speaker 2: on the pitch.

303
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Speaker 3: And I mean, let's just be honest.

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Speaker 2: Once the first goal goes in this thing, you know

305
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Speaker 2: it's gonna be a very game state dependent type of one.

306
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,880
Speaker 2: If either team has to be more aggressive, I think

307
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:16,360
Speaker 2: you can say they're going to be very good at

308
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,320
Speaker 2: creating chances when the foot is on the pedal. So,

309
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Speaker 2: you know, projected closer to two and a half goals,

310
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Speaker 2: I think the solo should be probably closer to two

311
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Speaker 2: and a half, you know, at around even money or

312
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Speaker 2: even plus one ten.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going with France plus one forty to win.

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Speaker 3: Inside ninety minutes and over two at minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 5: This is a tough one for me, so I've got

316
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,200
Speaker 5: a lean. I've gone for a bet builder, which is

317
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Speaker 5: what I usually do when I'm stumped on the main markets,

318
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,960
Speaker 5: and cannot just say Pepe versus Mbappe for that that

319
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,840
Speaker 5: will be encouraging high blood pressure on mass in Portugal

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Speaker 5: this weekend. That that, mother, that might be a grim

321
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Speaker 5: watch for the Portuguese. And I know he's not scored yet,

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Speaker 5: but I think Ronaldo is actually looking really like.

323
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Speaker 4: His movement in the.

324
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 5: Box is beautiful, really the perfect case study for any

325
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,920
Speaker 5: young striker out there, and that's been a continuous theme

326
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 5: since settling to life at Manchester United all those years ago.

327
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Speaker 5: He's still not got on the score sheet after taking

328
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Speaker 5: twenty shots in Germany, the most in the competition, but

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Speaker 5: you look like a man possessed against Slovenia. I think

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Speaker 5: he's a major threat to France's chances of progressing for me,

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Speaker 5: and despite that, don't think he's the perfect focal point

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Speaker 5: for this team. It's been said many times because it's

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00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,480
Speaker 5: the It's the Ronaldo show, isn't it like crime? Before

334
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,160
Speaker 5: the game had even finished, because he missed the penalty

335
00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,640
Speaker 5: and he's like nearly forty years old, and it all

336
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:40,880
Speaker 5: feels a bit put on, and I just wonder what

337
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,479
Speaker 5: the other experienced pros think of it all, like Pepe Fernandez,

338
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 5: Bernardo Silver, like they must be bored of it by now.

339
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 5: I'd hate playing with him personally, but he'll play every

340
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Speaker 5: game from here on now.

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Speaker 4: He's undroppable.

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Speaker 5: Martinez doesn't have the cohonas to leave him out, it

343
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Speaker 5: won't happen. So Portugal need there are other big players

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Speaker 5: to come through in the quarters against France in Rafauleau.

345
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,639
Speaker 5: There can't be many fullbacks in world football that can

346
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 5: keep up with him. That's a real outlet, a joker

347
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 5: in the park, like he's the perfect worldcar for Portugal

348
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,760
Speaker 5: to use to unlock the French defense. If they're to

349
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 5: have any joy, it might be through him. Yeah, Cansello

350
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,080
Speaker 5: as well. I thought he was excellent against Slovenia over

351
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,720
Speaker 5: on the other side, always keen to get forward and

352
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,680
Speaker 5: he'll be looking to overload the French left back if

353
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 5: the opportunity arises. So that's something to keep an eye on.

354
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 5: But looking at the markets, the go line app under

355
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,919
Speaker 5: two point zero. I kind of get that. That was

356
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 5: the first thing I checked. It's a bit too small

357
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 5: for me. I wanted under two point five. France have

358
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 5: drawn one nil to Belgium and nil neil to the

359
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,639
Speaker 5: Netherlands so far, and they're two matches against the bigger boys,

360
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:46,920
Speaker 5: and I've got a feeling it might be the same

361
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,960
Speaker 5: again here, as do the book makers. Clearly, the draw

362
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 5: was the next thing I looked at in our betting

363
00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 5: guide at states that back in the draw at the

364
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,720
Speaker 5: quarter final stage of the World Cup and euro since

365
00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 5: nineteen ninety eight would have returned a sizeable twenty one

366
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 5: point eight percent ROI from a one unit level stake,

367
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,080
Speaker 5: and that was nineteen out of fifty eight drawn games

368
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,720
Speaker 5: being tied come nineteen minutes at this stage at the

369
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,199
Speaker 5: quarter final stage, so that's huge. So the draw at

370
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 5: three point one zero was also up there for me.

371
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,200
Speaker 5: But saying that I wouldn't be surprised to see a

372
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,200
Speaker 5: one nil either way. France haven't expected goals against tally

373
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 5: of just two point sixty three at the Euros.

374
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 4: That's the lowest of any side in the quarter final.

375
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 5: And not only that, this French squad have failed to

376
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,840
Speaker 5: score a single goal from open play in the last

377
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 5: five matches, so both nations might struggle to get the

378
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,120
Speaker 5: opener here. I wouldn't be overly surprised if it's nil nil.

379
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 5: In terms of my bet for this Aleen, I've ended

380
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 5: up with Ronaldo two shots and under two point five

381
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:48,399
Speaker 5: goals one point eight, so minus one twenty.

382
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:50,359
Speaker 4: I know it's a skinny price.

383
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 5: It's not the best bet in the world, but I've

384
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,439
Speaker 5: kind of just lumped two things that I like together

385
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 5: just to offer up something on this podcast. Portugal seek

386
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 5: out Ronaldo time and time again. In the final third.

387
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 5: It's a clear instruction for Martinez regular crosses into the box,

388
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,679
Speaker 5: and I've already mentioned his movement willingness to get on

389
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 5: the end of these deliveries. He will also take any

390
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,160
Speaker 5: free kick up to about thirty five years out and

391
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 5: he'll hit every single one, and they'll all be terrible.

392
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 5: He won't score any of them or hit the target,

393
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 5: but he will shoot. So two of them plus under

394
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 5: two point five goals at minus one twenty. It's not

395
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 5: the best bet in the world, but it's not the

396
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,440
Speaker 5: worst bet either, all Right.

397
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,360
Speaker 6: That brings us to Saturday. That brings us to England.

398
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 6: That brings us to what should be a carnival of

399
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 6: stress here. It's gonna be hilarious. It's gonna be so funny.

400
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 6: England's by this one seventy five to advance, Switzerland is

401
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 6: plus one thirty seven to get into the semi finals.

402
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 1: The three way line.

403
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 6: Has England as a plus one twenty favorite, Switzerland plus

404
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,479
Speaker 6: two to eighty and the draw here is two to

405
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 6: one as well. Sam, we'll just turn it over to

406
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 6: you here. I think everybody in the I should say

407
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 6: most people who were into Benning soccer as soon as

408
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 6: that England match ended against Slovakia. The first start was

409
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:09,399
Speaker 6: I can't wait to see what price I can get

410
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 6: at Switzerland. And when everybody's thinking that, you know the

411
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 6: price is going to be way too short. And that's

412
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,400
Speaker 6: what it looks like here. I want to bet at Switzerland,

413
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 6: I really do, but just the numbers just don't justify it.

414
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 5: I want to bet the Switzerland Asian handicap plus zero

415
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 5: point twenty five, but it's a bit skinny. I've really

416
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 5: hoped we'd get plus zero point five at a backable price,

417
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 5: just didn't get it.

418
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:34,640
Speaker 4: So this is more of a lean.

419
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 5: It's maybe more of a suggestion than anything. Keep an

420
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 5: eye on that plus zero point two to five Asian

421
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 5: handicap if it If it moves up to the zero

422
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 5: point five, that's something to take definitely, So just keep

423
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 5: an eye on it. In terms of England. But where

424
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 5: do I start, really, it was all very slow from England.

425
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 5: They're lefargic. There's no one grabbing the game by the

426
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 5: scruff of the neck. We had two shots on target

427
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 5: against Slovakia in around sixteen fixture at a major tournament,

428
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 5: almost as bad as the USA up against Uruguay, but

429
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 5: we'll leave that for another podcast.

430
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 4: And so that's terrible.

431
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 5: We needed an overhead kick, last ditch strike to take

432
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 5: Slovakia to extra time.

433
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 4: So this isn't vintage England. Far from it.

434
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,199
Speaker 5: England's first shot on target with dud Bellingham's over a

435
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 5: kick ninety five excuse me, ninety five minutes gone, and

436
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 5: the second was Caine's winner.

437
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 4: They haven't played well all tournament.

438
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 5: Switzerland won't fear England, although England have lost just one

439
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 5: of the last twenty four meetings with Switzerland in all competitions.

440
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 5: There's no need to pay England too much respect. If

441
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 5: Slovakia and Slovenia can hold England to a draw, then

442
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 5: the Swiss definitely can too, and they were good against Italy.

443
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 5: Switzerland were especially over on the left hand side of

444
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 5: the pitch. They had forty eight percent of their touches

445
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 5: in the final third came over on Switzerland's left as

446
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 5: Ricardo Reguez pushed up to join attacks and overload the

447
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 5: full back alongside Vargos. Who's the left winger. You played

448
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 5: out wide and you've got Aby Shure in there and

449
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 5: he kind of drifts centrally and with Rodriguez, those two

450
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 5: gave Di Lorenzo a lot to think about at right back,

451
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 5: and it could be the same story for Carl Walker too,

452
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 5: And I imagine Yakin will plan to share out the

453
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 5: attacks over to the right hand side, over to the

454
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 5: right hand flank, with question marks around England and trip

455
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 5: here at left back. And even if Luke Shaw gets

456
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 5: the nod, he hasn't played much football recently, so that

457
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 5: should mean and Dey becomes more regularly involved in the game.

458
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 5: If you look after the Italy win, Yakin said in

459
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 5: a press conference, I wanted our player to go down

460
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,640
Speaker 5: the right a bit more to make more of both flanks,

461
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 5: not just the left. That makes our game plan much

462
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 5: more unpredictable. And the stresses first go actually come from

463
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 5: Enjoy popping up on the left and combining with Vargas,

464
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 5: and then the second from Vargas who carried it from

465
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 5: the left into the top right corner. So in terms

466
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 5: of them being very handy down the left, they are,

467
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 5: but I think they're going to attack us down the

468
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 5: right as well. So there's two flanks there which I'm

469
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 5: really quite concerned of, and I think we may struggle

470
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 5: with both in terms of England and Southgate. The more

471
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 5: this game rumbles on towards full time, I fear for England.

472
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 5: I don't have faith in Gara Southgate spot in their

473
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 5: tactical tweaks or inclusions from the bench that's needed to

474
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 5: change a game. I don't back us to overturn a

475
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 5: deficit from the bench at the minute against decent opposition,

476
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 5: And because this should be so close, that's a real

477
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 5: concern for me. So more of the same from England

478
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 5: with profit if it's a draw, makes that plus zero

479
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 5: point two to five Asian handicap appealing in Gara Southgates

480
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 5: one hundred mats in charge. It's an interesting angle. The

481
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 5: prices aren't there yet. We spoke about it, but just

482
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 5: keep an eye on it. And I would suggest, yeah,

483
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 5: keep an eye. If we get to plus zero point

484
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 5: five handicap, then that's something to take for the time being.

485
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 5: Maybe just sit back, relax and keep an eye on

486
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 5: the markets.

487
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 2: I'm going to say something that Sam's not going to like,

488
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 2: at what point do we buylo on it? At what

489
00:23:58,320 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 2: point do we bylo in England here?

490
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 3: Like? At what points? I mean?

491
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 2: Seriously, so England England open at minus one twenty here

492
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 2: and you could get you know, plus plus a half

493
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 2: at you know, a decent price. But clearly, you know,

494
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: the market has reacted to how dominant Switzerland was and how.

495
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 3: You know lackluster England was.

496
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 2: So you know, if we're not so reactionary and we

497
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 2: take you know, a large sample size of data, like

498
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 2: I have England projected even money, which I thought was

499
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 2: a pretty fair line here, and now we're staring at

500
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 2: plus one twenty for the full ninety minutes and you

501
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 2: know they're about minus one seventy five to advance. It's

502
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 2: it's hard, right because I'm sitting here and I'm like

503
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: what is Southgate gonna do right, like, because you know,

504
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 2: Sam I wouldven thinking about this a lot. Southgate really

505
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: wasn't like this during the World Cup. Like England actually

506
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 2: showed a little bit of more aggressiveness during the World

507
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 2: Cup to play forward, play in between the lines and

508
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 2: actually play through teams. Now it could have been a

509
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 2: case that they were playing, you know, the four teams

510
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 2: that they'd beat, or excuse me, three teams that they

511
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: beat where Wales, I ran and Senegal, but at least

512
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 2: there was a little bit more onus in the attack

513
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 2: and to be more aggressive and try and penetrate the

514
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,479
Speaker 2: middle of the pitch. And now it's just you know,

515
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 2: it's kind of similar they're trying to you know, especially

516
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,880
Speaker 2: against Slovakia in the second half, you saw that they

517
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 2: were trying to overload Sokka's part of the pitch until

518
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,719
Speaker 2: they brought on Palmer, but they were trying to overload that.

519
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,880
Speaker 2: Bellingham was going over there phone and was playing more

520
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 2: centrally and they were leaving trippy or just like wide

521
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 2: open on the left and they played a couple of

522
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: switchballs to them and actually worked a couple of times.

523
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 2: But it seems like they are just trying to utilize

524
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 2: their individual quality to play through teams, and there's really

525
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: no onus to play through the middle, and teams have

526
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 2: not allowed them to do that because I mean, Slovakia is,

527
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 2: you know, comparatively to a lot of teams, is not

528
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 2: that great defensively. I think they've shown that throughout this tournament.

529
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,719
Speaker 2: So but at some point the overreaction in the market

530
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 2: has to create a little bit of value in England

531
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 2: because they are the more talented team, like hey, against Switzerland,

532
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 2: they're the more talented team. Switzerland is the better tactical

533
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 2: setup team, like Sam said they could be, They're gonna

534
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 2: cause a lot of problems for England down the wings.

535
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 2: But at some point, you know, if England is able

536
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 2: to play through or get a nice transition attack here

537
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 2: against Switzerland, because you know, the best chances that they

538
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 2: got were when they were more aggressed about a possession,

539
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 2: when they forced a couple high turnovers and got Slovakia

540
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 2: into those positions where they weren't in their set defensive block. Now,

541
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: Switzerland's going to be a lot more aggressive than Slovakia was.

542
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 2: I mean, Slovakia pressed England for like the first twenty

543
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,719
Speaker 2: five minutes, caused some problems, got the goal, and then

544
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: after that they kind of just started to sit back.

545
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: Switzerland's going to do that for the full ninety minutes.

546
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 2: They're going to come at them at some point. England

547
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 2: has the individual quality to play through a press like that, right,

548
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 2: So if England gets an early goal, well, they're the

549
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: best defensive team in this tournament and they can sit

550
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 2: on that and they can get through here. So I'm

551
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 2: gonna be waiting. If England gets to plus one thirty,

552
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 2: I will be betting England. I don't like to do it,

553
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: but that is a fifty cent swing in the market

554
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 2: that I'm not sure is warranted that drastically.

555
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 3: I get that Switzerland has.

556
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 2: Been a lot better, but I think at some point

557
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 2: there has to be a buy.

558
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 3: Low on England.

559
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, and I wonder if if you're buying into that,

560
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 6: like there's still the same price they were essentially to

561
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 6: win the tournament.

562
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 1: Then we saw in UNMATCHA one, and.

563
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 2: They're gonna be big favorites in that semi final match.

564
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: I know, well, are we talking ourselves into it? Are

565
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 1: we talking ourselves into.

566
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm I'm gonna let that runch go I'm

567
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 3: gonna let it go.

568
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 6: Now. I'm starting to think, well, if I'm going to

569
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 6: back England to win tournament, do I just bet?

570
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 3: Do I bet?

571
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,199
Speaker 1: Belling them to wing player of the tournament also a right.

572
00:27:58,240 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna stop there.

573
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 6: We'll just let's get to Netherlands and Turkey before I

574
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 6: really get involved with this English team that I found nothing.

575
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 3: I want nothing.

576
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 6: If I talk you into it, I want nothing to

577
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 6: do with them at all. It's hilarious car crash theater,

578
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 6: except not a car crash. It's like watching a car

579
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 6: park itself. Netherlands and Turkey, this one should be awesome.

580
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 6: The Dutch or minus one seventy five on the three

581
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 6: way line, Turkey plus five hundred. The draw is plus

582
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 6: two ninety. It makes sense that this draw is a

583
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 6: much bigger price compared to the other three because this

584
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 6: should have a lot of goals in it, a lot

585
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 6: of chaos in it to advance. The Netherlands is a

586
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 6: prohibitive minus one excuse me, minus three thirty four favorite,

587
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 6: and the Turks are plus two fifty. Before we break

588
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 6: this one down and give it our bets, just a

589
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 6: reminder that wonder goal is presented by bet three six five.

590
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 6: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you

591
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 6: get more boosts with them than anyone else. Every day

592
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 6: they power up the odds one hundreds of bets to

593
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:58,959
Speaker 6: give you a chance to win more. Bet three six

594
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 6: five boost specific mark gets winnings and even parlays.

595
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: They don't stop there.

596
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 6: Keep an eye out for the biggest and best odds

597
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 6: with the incredible super boosts. Check out the boost and

598
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 6: see why it's never ordinary. At Bet three six y five.

599
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,479
Speaker 6: You must be twenty one or older in n Present

600
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 6: in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia,

601
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 6: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. If you, or anyone

602
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 6: you know has a gambling problem, please call one in

603
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 6: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms.

604
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 6: Conditions restrictions apply. This should be so much fun this match.

605
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 6: I was really impressed. I know it is Romania, but

606
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 6: I was really impressed with the way the Dutch turned

607
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 6: it on. I think we've just been waiting for that.

608
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 6: The attack looked confident, it was brimming. I thought Memphis

609
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 6: the pie was dangerous Zabie Simones was dangerous. Danielle Maylan

610
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 6: is he gonna win the Golden Boot thirty three to one?

611
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:48,479
Speaker 4: Like?

612
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 1: Do you score two?

613
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 6: And there should be goals in this Turkey mat Cody

614
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 6: Gakpo obviously was great. They weren't relative like they weren't

615
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 6: all that tested by Romania the other way, the first

616
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 6: fifteen minutes were a little nervy. You'd think if they

617
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 6: play that way against Turkey, maybe they get punished. With

618
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 6: the way this Turkey side has been, they've been so

619
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 6: much fun to watch. Don't think that game against Austria

620
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 6: disappointed in one bit. Save of the tournament, Arta Ghuler

621
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 6: was incredible. Again this thing, I think if you were

622
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 6: to if we were just doing like a pool where

623
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 6: you had to submit scores for every match, you'd feel

624
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 6: pretty confident knowing that, you know, Spainbrish, Germany, it's not

625
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 6: gonna there's a few pass that can walk down. I

626
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 6: think the same with Portugal and France. There's not that

627
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 6: many outcomes for that kind of match. And for sure

628
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 6: Switzerland ris England feels like it's gonna stay relatively stable.

629
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 6: This match feels like it can go in a million

630
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 6: different directions. One goal unlocks everything for either side. Turkey

631
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 6: can't defend. I'm still a little skeptical that Netherlands can defend.

632
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 6: Definitely skeptical of the Netherlands manager. We've got former evertent

633
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 6: managers all over the place in this quarter final.

634
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: I don't know.

635
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 6: Like I'm very happy to be talked into a bet here,

636
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 6: and I'm guessing it's going to be the one that

637
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 6: you two both agree on. So I'm going to sit

638
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 6: back and probably just just file along with you guys.

639
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 5: Turkey were good against Austria, very good performance. That goal

640
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 5: in the first minute meant they could sit back a little.

641
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:12,479
Speaker 4: More more so than usual.

642
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 5: Austria then couldn't play as normal and operate in the

643
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 5: chaos they often caused from high turnal but from their press.

644
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 5: Austria had more of the ball sixty percent possession and

645
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 5: couldn't utilize their press as regularly as they usually do.

646
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 4: Gonuk can go Gonuk maybe.

647
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 5: And pulled off the best save I've seen in years

648
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 5: in the final seconds. Quality from him to do that

649
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 5: in injury time in the knockout stages of an international tournament.

650
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 5: Austria had done enough up to that point, though for me,

651
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 5: to at least lock in the draw at the end

652
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 5: of the ninety minutes. But Turkey were really good, Like

653
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 5: I said, really good on the ball. They zipped the

654
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 5: ball around well, all very comfortable receiving the ball anywhere

655
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 5: on the pitch, and all very capable of finding the

656
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 5: next teammate and progressing upfield. Thought they were great in

657
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 5: possession and the return of Kalanoglu will only enhance their

658
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 5: efficiency on the ball in midfield are the Gula's left

659
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 5: footed delivery from set pieces and his football intelligence was.

660
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 4: Off the charts.

661
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 5: Really, you'd think he'd been playing twenty odd years at

662
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 5: this level, and he put each corner and cross on

663
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 5: a sixpence in an era where plenty of corner takers

664
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 5: failed to beat the first man. One of my pet

665
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 5: hates in professional football. Gouler's set piece delivery was honestly superb,

666
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 5: and he found Demrew to score the fastest goal in

667
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 5: knockout stages the Europs has ever seen, and Demrow to

668
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 5: act to score two goals to get the brace before

669
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 5: kickoff was three hundred to one. Feels like something you'd

670
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 5: bet on, Michael, but you've not mentioned it, so I'm

671
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 5: assuming you didn't.

672
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: I didn't get that one unfortunately.

673
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, Lisa, Yeah, they dutched dealt with a really high tempo,

674
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 5: aggressive start from Romania. He looked bright in the opening stages,

675
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 5: but after that lasted about twenty twenty five minutes at most,

676
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 5: it was all the Netherlands. They took control, really kicked

677
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 5: on and the second goal killed it from some really

678
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 5: good play play by Cody Gakpool. The over two point

679
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 5: seventy five Asian goal line here is the biggest of

680
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 5: all four quarter finals, which makes sense with the two

681
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 5: teams involved. But you can get an early price at

682
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 5: bet three sixty five of over two point five goals,

683
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 5: and you can get that still at minus one twenty,

684
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 5: so I think that's a pretty handy way in over

685
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 5: two point five goals is landed in all Turkey matches

686
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 5: so far at Euro twenty twenty four, they're averaging three

687
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 5: point two five goals per game in games which are

688
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 5: descending into chaos, which is great for the neutral. The

689
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 5: Dutch drew with Franz Neil Neil as we can remember,

690
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 5: but the rest of their games sort at least three goals,

691
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 5: with Austria versus Netherlands ending three two and you'd probably

692
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 5: put Turkey in a similar stylistically, in a similar pool

693
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 5: to Austria.

694
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 4: So that's a good sign.

695
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 5: Both teams will feel like they can hurt the other

696
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 5: in counterattacking and set piece situations. I guess we should

697
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 5: get a couple of goals from those two avenues if

698
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 5: the goal line doesn't float your boat.

699
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 4: Both teams to score is also at minus one twenty.

700
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 5: I don't mind that at all, even though Turkey are

701
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 5: five to one outsiders, and even though this betting guide

702
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 5: in front of me says you probably shouldn't side with

703
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 5: goes in then knockouts, but I'm going to go for

704
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,320
Speaker 5: over two point five goals at minus one twenty.

705
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I like over two and a half

706
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 2: as well. You know the thing about these Turkey matches,

707
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: and they've kind of evolved into chaos. It is like

708
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,760
Speaker 2: every single match has been either Turkey has been playing

709
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 2: from a positive or negative game state, right like, so

710
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: against Georgia they went up early, they obviously gradually in

711
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: the second half. They're playing from behind against Portugal for

712
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 2: the entire match. The match against the check Public, they

713
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 2: got ahead and they were up a man, and obviously

714
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 2: the check Public had to go for it, so we

715
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 2: created this chaotic match. And then scoring in the first

716
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 2: minute against you know, Ragnik side created that kind of

717
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 2: chaos type match. So once the first goal goes in,

718
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 2: no matter who scores it, I think we're going to

719
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 2: devolve into more chaos. I was very interested in the

720
00:34:55,360 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 2: Turkey set up against Austria. They didn't even put a

721
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 2: striker on the pitch. They were playing Arda Hueler.

722
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 3: As like a false nine, but like also not really.

723
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 2: He was kind of just roaming in to do like

724
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 2: whatever was best for Turkey in that type of moment,

725
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: and they just put a ton of press resistant midfielders

726
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 2: and technicians on the pitch because it was very evident

727
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 2: that Austria was going to press and they had caused

728
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 2: problems when they beat them six to one and that friendly.

729
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: So Mantella was like, we're gonna get all of our

730
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 2: best ball progressors, pressed resistant midfielders on the pitch and

731
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 2: for the first forty five minutes they were playing through

732
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,320
Speaker 2: Ragne Express better than anybody has in this entire tournament

733
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 2: so far. And obviously as the match got deeper they

734
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 2: scored a second, they seated control and you know, In

735
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 2: the end, Austria, you know, forced one hundred high turnovers

736
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 2: and one hundred and fifty high recoveries because you know,

737
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 2: Turkey was just trying to play the ball out and

738
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 2: you know, just keep just get a breath of fresh air.

739
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 3: But yes, the Dutch were really good against Romania, but

740
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: I think they have real.

741
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 2: Actual issues that have been covered up by individual quality,

742
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 2: especially against Austria.

743
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 3: I know they won the expected goals.

744
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 2: Battle on that match, but from the jump, Austria was

745
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 2: overloading the middle of the pitch. They were moving guys around.

746
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: The Dutch really didn't seem like they knew what the

747
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 2: plan was defensively because they were trying to man mark,

748
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 2: but they weren't pressing the ball the set, you know,

749
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: the back line wasn't coming up to aid.

750
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 3: So Austria, especially vim Mer, was.

751
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: Just receiving the ball easily between the lines and it

752
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 2: was just so disjointed, and Austria punished them time and

753
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 2: time and time again, and it got so bad and

754
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 2: Coleman put Joel Veerman on an island of not really

755
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 2: knowing what to do, and so he took him off

756
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 2: after thirty minutes and said, all right, we got to

757
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 2: go with more aggressive approach, and you know, and in

758
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 2: the end, you know, the Dutch's best chances came from

759
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 2: transition attacks. They created a bunch of chances off of that,

760
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,399
Speaker 2: which you know they have individual quality with Dupai and

761
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 2: with Cody Gakpo, but again with the tackle set up

762
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 2: being bad and even in possession, and anybody who's watched

763
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 2: a Coman side, whether it be at Everton or at Barcelona,

764
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 2: knows that he just opts for a ton of safe passes,

765
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 2: right like, it's just safe pass after safe pass after

766
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 2: safe pass, and in this tournament, especially against Austria, those

767
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 2: safe passes just kept going backwards right to the goalkeeper

768
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: and he was just hoofing it long to to Pie

769
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: or Waghorst when he was in the match, right. And

770
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 2: so yes, they got a couple transition attacks off of that.

771
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 2: But if they're going to do that here against Turkey,

772
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 2: which I know.

773
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 3: Who hasn't been a very good defensive side.

774
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: The individual quality could see through the Netherlands could very

775
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 2: well win this match. But the tactical setup continues to

776
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 2: be terrible from Coman, and once they face a good team,

777
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 2: which Turkey offensively at least is a really good tactical

778
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 2: side under Montella, so I think they're gonna give him

779
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 2: a lot of problems. And I'm with Sam, I think

780
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 2: this is going to be very back and forth once

781
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 2: that first goal goes in. I think we're going to

782
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 2: devolve into chaos. Like you said, three point three expected

783
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 2: goals per match, and these Turkey matches so far they've

784
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 2: conceded seven point six expectacles and four matches. I have

785
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,879
Speaker 2: three points two projected for this match, So I'm gonna

786
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 2: say I like over two and a half of miles

787
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:09,760
Speaker 2: one twenty.

788
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm gonna join you guys on that and probably

789
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 6: play some you know, exact scores like four two's and

790
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 6: such like that. The other thing I'm hoping for here

791
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 6: is more rain because I think just that the lashing

792
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 6: rain really added to the to the to the spectacle

793
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 6: of that that Austria Turkey match, and just like the

794
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 6: other three matches, just yeah, they're we're talking like heavyweight

795
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 6: battles between uh Spain, Germany, France, Portugal. Of course you

796
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 6: got the England drama, but this one is just gonna

797
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 6: be off the rails. Okay, that's all four matches done, dusted.

798
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 6: Let's get into our favorite bet for the quarterfinals. If

799
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 6: you had to pick one, Sam, what would it be?

800
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 6: And it can't beat dem all to score to two

801
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 6: plus again because I'm sure those ads are they're gonna

802
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 6: come down like.

803
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 5: That, all right, then I'll go for levelan's first. Turkey

804
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 5: over two point five goals and minus twenty. I think

805
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 5: Turkey can cause a few headaches here. For me, the

806
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:07,359
Speaker 5: Dutch are susceptible going backwards. Their ten point twenty five

807
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 5: shots per ninety conceded at this tournament is more than Spain, Portugal,

808
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,720
Speaker 5: France and Germany. And if you're to win this tournament,

809
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 5: you've got to do so with a defense that isn't

810
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 5: as vulnerable as theirs, despite the likes of Van Dijk

811
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,439
Speaker 5: and Nathan Ake back there. The Germans, for example, they're

812
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 5: conceding six point seventy five shots per ninety, so that's

813
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 5: some difference. Let's hope Turkey are on it here and

814
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 5: they can contribute to They'll be aggressive and commit bodies

815
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 5: forward in dangerous areas. Both should contribute to that goal

816
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 5: line going close. So over two point five goals minus

817
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 5: one twenty, I'm.

818
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 6: Going to go with Spain and Germany to go to

819
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 6: penalties at plus four point fifty. I think that this

820
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 6: is Goliath versus Goliath. I think there's so much for

821
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 6: tactical for fans of tactic socceratectics who love to watch

822
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 6: the nuance and matches to kind of engorge themselves with here,

823
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 6: But I think that turns matches into stalemates, especially with

824
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 6: both of these teams knowing it's strength versus stre le

825
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 6: going forward, so they need to be very, very very

826
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 6: sharp in transition and on defense. So I think we're

827
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 6: looking at a zero zero one one on both sides,

828
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 6: white knuckling to a penalty shootout that will decide who

829
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 6: goes through in BJ. For your best bet, I guess

830
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 6: we can hope bits the Germans.

831
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Germany to advance at minus one ten.

832
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,280
Speaker 2: Like you said, this is going to be a very practical,

833
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 2: nuanced type of match, and I think it's going to

834
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 2: be interesting to see who controls a majority of the possession.

835
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 2: These two met in the twenty twenty two World Cup.

836
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 2: Spain ended up controlling sixty four percent possession, but Germany

837
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: ended up winning the expected goals about a one point

838
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 2: three to point six and out shot Spain eleven to seven,

839
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 2: and Germany is a very good out of possession side.

840
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: They'll either sit in a four to four to two

841
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 2: or a four to two four and they'll make it

842
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:45,919
Speaker 2: very very hard for Spain to play through the middle

843
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: of the pitch. And Spain has already experienced one match

844
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 2: in this tournament where they haven't controlled over fifty percent

845
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 2: of the possession. It was against Croatia. They were leading

846
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 2: three to nothing. Obviously they seeded control, but that was

847
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 2: the first time since the Final of Euros at two

848
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 2: thousand and eight that Spain had held under fifty percent possession.

849
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 2: He gave us kind of a glimpse of what Spain

850
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 2: is like when they're controlling less than fifty percent of

851
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: the ball and have to defend for the majority of

852
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 2: the match. Croatia ended up creating over two expected goals

853
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 2: in that match. They punished Spain a couple times in transition,

854
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:16,280
Speaker 2: which is exactly what Germany can do. Germany has shown

855
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 2: themselves to be a very versatile side. They have six

856
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 2: fast break shots in this tournament, that's second most, and

857
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 2: they've been controlling pretty much every single match that they've played,

858
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 2: so that's a very impressive feed. But what's bothering me

859
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 2: most about this, Michael, is that World Cup match in

860
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two closed at Spain plus one fifty and

861
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 2: Germany plus one seventy. We're staring at pretty much the

862
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 2: exact same line right now. Both teams have gotten better

863
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 2: since the twenty twenty two World Cup, and I think

864
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,800
Speaker 2: it's a fair statement to make that these two teams

865
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 2: are even. So why isn't Germany getting credit for home

866
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: field advantage? I think Germany should be closer to plus

867
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 2: one thirty or plus one twenty and honestly minus one

868
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 2: thirty or minus one thirty five to advance, So I

869
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 2: like them to advance at minus one ten.

870
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 6: Lovely all right, we'll see how this goes. Best elective,

871
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 6: everyone with their bets. Fecial left to Sam's England in

872
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 6: the quarterfinals should be a pretty nerve wracking weekend for

873
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 6: everybody involves. Happy fourth of July to our American listeners,

874
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 6: We'll see you on the other side of the holiday weekend.

875
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler