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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Saturday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. Every single morning we are here on the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel and also wherever you get your

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Speaker 1: audio podcasts for the Daily Juice being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by olmah steaks dot com slash Juice that you arel

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Speaker 1: All right, three and one day yesterday, Western Kentucky man

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Speaker 1: had a sweep going and then they just fell apart

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Speaker 1: in the end, big time collapse. I took a edge

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Speaker 1: on the Marquette Future. Now we have a twenty to

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Speaker 1: one ticket. I took a hedge on it, bet one

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Speaker 1: point one units. It's down down to an eighteen point

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Speaker 1: nine to one, or just make it nineteen to one

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Speaker 1: to make it easy. So we gave back a unit

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Speaker 1: there on the Marquette Future. Now some of you guys

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Speaker 1: are trying to do different math, and you're trying to

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Speaker 1: add things together and going, well, Matt, you made six bets.

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Speaker 1: So really it's down to dot dot dot. No, remember

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Speaker 1: why I made the future bets. Okay, these future bets

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Speaker 1: are not going to cash. It's impossible, right, think about it,

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Speaker 1: only one champion. I'm doing this to take positions to

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Speaker 1: be able to hedge off of said position. For instance,

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Speaker 1: Oregon plays Creighton today. I am scared to death of

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Speaker 1: the Ducks. Thirty to one odds on the Creighton Blue

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Speaker 1: Jays to win it all you want to hedge that,

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Speaker 1: don't mind it at all. North Carolina today, Carolina take

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Speaker 1: it on to Michigan State. I am petrified of Michigan

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Speaker 1: State and Tom Izzo. The pros are all over Michigan State.

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Speaker 1: The toughness of Izzo in March gonna be really hard

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Speaker 1: for Carolina. Petrified for that. What else is there that

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Speaker 1: we made some I'm gonna make some bets on this,

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Speaker 1: But how about we'll talk about Texas and Tennessee here

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Speaker 1: in a second? Iowa State. Iowa was in Washington State. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm not really all I think. I always say covers

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Speaker 1: that number. But that's in play Arizona against Dayton. More

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Speaker 1: on that game here in a little bit right. We

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Speaker 1: have a lot of future tickets writing today, so here's

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Speaker 1: kind of what I'm doing. I'm not going to touch

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Speaker 1: the North Carolina game. That number is light, Okay, Carolina

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half or minus four. The numbers light.

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Speaker 1: I like Carolina. Not gonna bet it. We'll just watch

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Speaker 1: it Tennessee well. More on that game here in just

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Speaker 1: one second. The Creighton Blue absolutely had petrified. You want

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Speaker 1: to hedge off that and you want to take Oregon today,

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Speaker 1: I don't mind it. Dane Almond's a wizard. This is

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Speaker 1: a matchup dating back years. Dan Almonds the architect of

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Speaker 1: the great and Blue Jay basketball program. He's the founder. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: he built what Greig McDermott has turned into an awesome program,

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Speaker 1: but Dana did it first. And they're facing each other.

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Speaker 1: Athletes on Oregon more athletic, Oregon longer, more athletic, the

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Speaker 1: Jays better basketball players overall, better shooters. But man, that

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Speaker 1: number at six, it's coming down to five four and

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Speaker 1: a half at FanDuel petrified. Okay, Oregon's the side tearing

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Speaker 1: out Oregon's aside. Okay, I think Caroline was aside. I

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Speaker 1: think Oregon's the side. Marquette won. They came back. So

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Speaker 1: now we got a nineteen to one bet. So that's

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Speaker 1: how I'm gonna do it. Okay, when I hedge, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna tell you how much that is now in play

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Speaker 1: for until we until they lose. We won't hedge. I

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Speaker 1: don't think, oh, hedge Marquette in their next game. But

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Speaker 1: let's talk about today. I got four bets to give

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Speaker 1: you guys today, all right, so let me do some

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Speaker 1: quick math here, real quick before we have Saturday and

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Speaker 1: Sunday to go here on this and let's see. So

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Speaker 1: on the week we are currently we have to be

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Speaker 1: down right for the week, be surprising for not yes, okay,

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Speaker 1: so one point nine, three point nine two, we're pretty

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Speaker 1: much three point We're down like a unit. Okay, on

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Speaker 1: the day. On the week, okay, so very much winning week,

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Speaker 1: very much on on pace here. Okay, we can absolutely

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Speaker 1: have a winning week. Okay, very possible. Yeah, so we'll

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Speaker 1: see how it plays out. Basically down unit. Okay, Gonzaga

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Speaker 1: up against a Kansas team that I faded in the

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Speaker 1: first game, took Samford Sanford didn't win with the cupboard.

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Speaker 1: Now we have a game in which Gonzaga is favored.

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Speaker 1: It was three and a half, now it's four and

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Speaker 1: a half. Look, I just don't trust this this canis team.

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Speaker 1: The last time Kansas was a dog, they were catching

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Speaker 1: three points again Cincinnati, they lost by twenty. The time

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Speaker 1: before that, they were catching seven and a half against

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Speaker 1: Houston they lost by thirty. Time before that, they were

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Speaker 1: catching four and a half against Baylor, they lost by eight.

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Speaker 1: Time before that, they were three and a half point

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Speaker 1: dogs at Texas Tech, they lost by twenty nine. Sensing

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Speaker 1: a theme here. The games they have won, they've been favored.

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Speaker 1: They were favored against Samford, they were favored against BYU,

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Speaker 1: they were favored against Texas, they were favored against Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: These are the games they've won recently. Now I get it.

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Speaker 1: You know this team has had a roller coach over

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Speaker 1: over ride without mccullors and now Dickinson coming back. I

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Speaker 1: just don't think this KU team is very good. And

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Speaker 1: on the flip side, I got a red hot team

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Speaker 1: in Gonzaga. Yes, they lost to Saint Mary's, but twenty

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Speaker 1: one points over McNee state, twelve points over San Francisco

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Speaker 1: thirteen points over Saint Mary's, eighteen points at San Francisco again,

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Speaker 1: thirteen points at Santa Clara, twenty one points out of Portland's.

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Speaker 1: I know those teams are not KU talent, but I

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Speaker 1: just think this Zaga team, they had a hiccup. Yep,

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Speaker 1: they didn't look great, but four and one over the

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Speaker 1: last five games, Saint Mary's is gone. Grand Canyon swept

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Speaker 1: him out. Goodbye Zags and mark few huge scalp opportunity.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the four and a half points Gonzaga

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Speaker 1: minus four and a half for one point one units

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Speaker 1: coming up here to night. If you're curious for Kenpom,

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Speaker 1: kempom has this as a two point win for Gonzaga.

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Speaker 1: Numbers a little heavy compared to the Kempon projection, but

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Speaker 1: it was three and a half. Now it's four and

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Speaker 1: a half. I wouldn't play it higher than five, but

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Speaker 1: I do think Gonzaga gonna be too much for Kansas

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Speaker 1: here tonight. Bet number two. This is not a hedge,

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Speaker 1: all right, I'm going to try to middle this. I

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Speaker 1: would love it for Texas to lose this game to Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: This is Rick Barnes' former team. I'm petrified of this game. Petrified.

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Speaker 1: It's a five point win for Tennessee. According to Kempom

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Speaker 1: number six and a half was six. Now it's six

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Speaker 1: and a half. Texas dispatched of CSU. We faded them

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Speaker 1: against CSU and they won fifty six forty four plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half miles two and a half they

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Speaker 1: covered with ease. Here, I'm riding with Tennessee. Sorry, riding

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Speaker 1: with Texas up against Tennessee, where this could be a

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Speaker 1: team that maybe I just get them dead wrong. I've

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Speaker 1: had the top them before where I'm on the wrong side. Right. Oh,

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Speaker 1: I faded them, I lost. Now now I ride them,

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Speaker 1: I lose. Very possible. But if the volunteers destroy Texas today,

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Speaker 1: that's a good thing for us in the future. It

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Speaker 1: means they're playing really well in Delta. Connect is really

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Speaker 1: stepping up. But I'm really scared of this number being

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Speaker 1: six and a half. I do think the balls win

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Speaker 1: the game, but I think it's like a three or

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Speaker 1: a four point win. I think six and a half

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Speaker 1: is way too heavy. Look, I would love if Tennessee

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Speaker 1: goes and blows the doors off of Texas. But the

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Speaker 1: Texas offense and the Texas defense both need to be

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Speaker 1: paid attention to. They're twenty seventh in OFFENSI efficiency, they're

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Speaker 1: thirty sixth and defensive efficiency. They are fifty third in

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Speaker 1: offensive effective field goal percentage. They're one hundred and sixteenth. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: they're seventy sixth in defensive effective field goal percentage. They

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Speaker 1: don't guard the three all that well, but Tennessee doesn't

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Speaker 1: shoot a ton of threes. They get about thirty three

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Speaker 1: percent of their offense from behind the arc. But if

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Speaker 1: Dalton connect goes nuclear, it goes nuclear. I mean, but

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Speaker 1: I mean Tyrese Hunter is the key here. Okay, if

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Speaker 1: he goes and has a monster game again like he

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Speaker 1: didn't in the first game for Texas, if he goes off,

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Speaker 1: this offense can really score eighty third and three point

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Speaker 1: percentage sixty seventh and two point percentage. Yes, the Balls

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Speaker 1: defense is right there with their fourth ineffective field goal percentage,

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Speaker 1: third in adjusted efficiency. Defensively, they are eighth and two

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Speaker 1: point defense, twenty ninth and three point defense. They lock

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Speaker 1: it down. That's great, But I think if the game

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Speaker 1: goes under, I mean, I just think Texas is in

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Speaker 1: the game late and again the Rick Barnes factor is huge,

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Speaker 1: so it's not a fade on Rick Barnes. It's not

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Speaker 1: a fade in our future. But I do think taking

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Speaker 1: Texas plus six and a half is a good play

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Speaker 1: here Tennessee wins, Texas covers for one point one unit

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Speaker 1: two more plays. Next play, let's talk about Dayton. I

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Speaker 1: haven't bet much with Dayton. I probably should bet more

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Speaker 1: with Dayton. I like Dayton a lot against Arizona, again,

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Speaker 1: a team we have a future on. This is not

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Speaker 1: a fade on Tennessee. Sorry on Arizona, so I think

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Speaker 1: is actually gonna happen. I think this number is way

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Speaker 1: too heavy. I don't really understand why it's this heavy.

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Speaker 1: It actually scares me that it's this heavy. Nine and

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Speaker 1: a half is a big number, as Arizona played well

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Speaker 1: enough to justify being nine and a half point favorites

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Speaker 1: against a Dayton team that was down seventeen to Nevada

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Speaker 1: and that rallied and win the game outright. Yes, Arizona's

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Speaker 1: defense is good, but adjusted efficiency Dayton twenty first, effective

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Speaker 1: field coup percentage tenth, three point percentage third in the country,

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Speaker 1: two point percentage fifty second in the country. Look, I know,

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Speaker 1: Arizona's offense is awesome, but the defense for the Dayton

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Speaker 1: Flyers is not awful either. I don't know. I'm really

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Speaker 1: concerned about Arizona getting beat here by Dayton. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: hope to be wrong and just say Arizona wins. But

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Speaker 1: Dayton covers plus nine and a half. Dayton plus nine

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Speaker 1: and a half up against Arizona for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: In our fourth and final bet Era, Iowa State up

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Speaker 1: against Washington State. My gosh totals one twenty nine. Washington

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Speaker 1: State away from home this year is thirteen to four

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Speaker 1: and one to the under, including the game against Drake

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Speaker 1: that went under nine and nine. Iowa State at home

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Speaker 1: to the to a total nine and eight to the

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Speaker 1: under away from home, but seven of the last ten

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Speaker 1: games for Iowa State has gone under. Iowa State went

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Speaker 1: fourteen and seven to the under this year in the

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Speaker 1: Big twelve. Washington State went thirteen to eight and one

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Speaker 1: to the under. In the Pac twelve, Washington State went

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Speaker 1: under by eleven in the game against Drake, thirty one

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Speaker 1: and a half in their game against Colorado in their

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Speaker 1: last two Now, two of the last three games have

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Speaker 1: gone over for Iowa State. But that's because of what

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Speaker 1: IOSC has scored against South Dakota State and against Baylor,

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Speaker 1: where they scored seventy six points against Baylor and eighty

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Speaker 1: two points against South Dakota State. I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen here against Washington State. Washington State gave up

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Speaker 1: fifty eight points to Colorado, sixty one points to Drake,

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Speaker 1: sixty two points to Stamford, seventy four points to Washington

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Speaker 1: Like they have played under under as March has progressed,

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Speaker 1: they're playing unders. I'm going under one twenty nine Iowa

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Speaker 1: State Washington State defensive rock fight coming from a PAC

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Speaker 1: twelve Big twelve matchup under one twenty nine for one

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Speaker 1: point one units. All right, four bets for us going

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Speaker 1: on here can Zagamas four four and a half, Texas

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half dayon plus nine and a

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Speaker 1: half and under one twenty nine for Washington State in

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Speaker 1: Iowa State. I do lean towards North Carolina. Mine was

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Speaker 1: three and a half to win and cover that game

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Speaker 1: against Michigan State. I do think the Creighton Blue Jays

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Speaker 1: will win the game against Oregon, but I don't love it,

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Speaker 1: and I don't feel great about it, and I'm really

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Speaker 1: really scared about that thirty to one. At halftime, I

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Speaker 1: very well might try to do the same thing I

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Speaker 1: just did today when I bet Marquette the market game

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Speaker 1: and I bet plus eleven on Western Kentucky. Now, they

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Speaker 1: got blown out by twenty five plus points in the

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Speaker 1: second half, but I like the play. If the J's

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Speaker 1: are up or down, depending on where we are here,

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Speaker 1: I very well might come in with a halftime bet.

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Speaker 1: It's the last game of the day, the Creyton Blue

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Speaker 1: Jays up against the Oregon Ducks. Cannot wait to watch it,

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Speaker 1: but I am very concerned about that for sure. But

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Speaker 1: I do think Carolina wins. I think that number is

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Speaker 1: too light. I think they cover that. But four plays

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Speaker 1: for us here on a Saturday. My name is Matt Parol.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all socials at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt every Morning Deals podcast. I was being brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Olmastakes dot Com.