1 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington, 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: d C. Bloomber to Boston, Bloomberg dwell Under to San Francisco, 3 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine to the Country, Shoe is Exam General one 4 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,959 Speaker 1: nine and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Appen 5 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Got Gone. This is taking stock. I'm Kathleen Hayes 6 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: along with PIM Fox. By Thursday, voters in the UK 7 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: will be going to the polls to vote whether or 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 1: not they should stay or leave the European Union Union. 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 1: The Brexit vote is upon us. Our next guest says 10 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 1: that even if the vote is to stay and the 11 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: polls are leading in that direction, Pim, as you well know, 12 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: there could be big moves in currency markets as investors 13 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: adgest to that. Yes, we'll also be talking about the 14 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: potential for importing inflation into the United Kingdom. Is indeed 15 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: the UK voters that decided to leave the European Union 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: right now, Let's go to Arlie Pello Bloomberg, Bluer Bloomberg 17 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: Business Flat and I thank you him, Thank you Kathleen. 18 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: The dal the SMP Nez dec Hall advancing stocks are surging. 19 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: SMP five hundred index, up the most in four weeks, 20 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: after the latest poll show the UK campaign to remain 21 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: in the European Union is gaining ground ahead of Thursday's referendum. 22 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: Of course, between now and Thursday and Friday, when we 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 1: find out for sure, when we get reaction, count on 24 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg for complete ongoing coverage. Oil is advancing today, extending 25 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: its advance from a one month low last week. Equities rose, 26 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: the dollars slipped on speculation the UK will vote to 27 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 1: remain in the up A EU. Scott Bower's senior market 28 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: strategistic trading advantage. The oversupply is is kind of gone. There. 29 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: There's a balance now between supply and demand, which is 30 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: what we want to see, and that's what it's been 31 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: shifting to. And that's why we've seen oil you know, rally, 32 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: certainly off the lows that we saw in the mid twenties, 33 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: but really rally off the last you know, month or so, 34 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: and we're seeing high tom and and the prediction is 35 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: now for high demand going into third and fourth quarters 36 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: of this year. And right now West Texas Intermediate accrued 37 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: it is up a dollar thirty five forty nine thirty 38 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: three on w t I, a gain there of two 39 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: point eight percent. Jaguar, land Rover and Diagio have joined 40 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: a growing number of companies warning employees of the risks 41 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 1: of a withdrawal by the UK from the European Union. Down. 42 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: Industrial is up one seventy nine, a gain narrow of 43 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: one percent. SMP of eighteen a gain of nine tenths 44 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: upon percent, has stack of fifty eight, a gain of 45 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 1: one point two percent. The tenure down eighteen thirty seconds 46 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: that yield one point six six percent. Gold is down 47 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: two tenths of one percent. Now the other stories making news. 48 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: Thank you Charlie from the Bloomberg News room. I Rainey 49 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: in a cent cio. The FBI has released the transcripts 50 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: from one calls between the Orlando nightclub shooter and police. 51 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: US Attorney Lead Bentley applauded the officers for how they 52 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 1: handled the standoff. The brave men and women of the 53 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: Orlando Police Department, the Orange County Sheriff solve this. The 54 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: FBI and others should not be second guests. They performed 55 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: valiantly during those early morning hours. Lives were saved because 56 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: of their heroic work. There's a shake up today in 57 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: the Donald Trump campaign. Trump has fired his hard charging 58 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski. He's clashed with longtime political operatives 59 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: who were brought in to make the campaign more professional. 60 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: Parts of southern California saw record highs yesterday and temperatures 61 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: are expected to climb even higher today. Jasmine Casillo changed 62 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: her plans to avoid the heat easily and I'll be 63 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: on a long hike. Can't really do that, so staying 64 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: out of the wilderness for a little bit. Just trying 65 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: to save by the beats and An experimental vaccine for 66 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: the zeke of virus is due to begin human testing 67 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: incoming weeks. In Ovo Pharmaceuticals says it received clearance from 68 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: the FDA to begin early stage safety tests of its 69 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: DNA based vaccine against the mosquito born virus, and the 70 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: program director of the Port Authority of New York and 71 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: New Jersey has received an honorary title from Queen Elizabeth 72 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: Glen Goosey is now an Honorary Member of the Most 73 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: Excellent Order of the British Empire for public service. The 74 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: Journal News says the New Yorker has been taking members 75 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 1: of the royal family on tours of the World Trade 76 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: Center site for fifteen years. Global news twenty four hours 77 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: a day, powered by our journalists in more than one 78 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: news bureaus around the world. From the Bloomberg Newsroom, I'm 79 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 1: Rainy in a cenio, Charlie, and we thank you and 80 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: again recapping equities advancing SMP five hundred index climbing nineteen 81 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 1: points to two thousand ninety, a gain of nine tenths 82 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: of one percent. I'm Charlie Palaton. That's a Bloomberg Business 83 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: slash there on Bloomberg Radio, just underscoring how focused global 84 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: markets are on the Brexit vote. On Thursday, the pound 85 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 1: jumping the most today since two thousand. It's spring, a 86 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: global rally in higher yielding currencies as the latest polls 87 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: are signaling that the campaign for the UK to stay 88 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: in the European Union is gaining momentum. Joining us now 89 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: here in our New York studio is Steven Casey, FX 90 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: trader and senior market analyst at Cambridge Global Payments. Cambridge 91 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,799 Speaker 1: is the biggest privately owned corporate provider of foreign exchange 92 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: services in the world, part of the burgeoning non bank market. 93 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:34,160 Speaker 1: He spent many years in London trading currencies. Now back 94 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: in New York the last few years to work for Cambridge. 95 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show, Stephen. Thank you very much for 96 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: having me. So you worked in London, you must still 97 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: have a lot of buddies on FX trading desks over there. 98 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: What are people saying, not only about the vote but 99 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 1: citizens Londoners? Well, how are they voting? It's funny. I mean, 100 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,799 Speaker 1: like the polls, Um, it's split. I've got some friends 101 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: who think that it's a foregone conclusion. I've got some 102 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: friends who think that it will never happen. So I 103 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 1: guess the polls kind of match what my inner circle 104 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: um beliefs as well. Concerning the Brexit, we'll have to 105 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: wait and see. Steven. Do you think that investors are 106 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 1: really prepared if they put in place any policies or 107 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: any strategy that would foretell what would happen to their 108 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: investments if the UK decides to leave? Um? Well, I 109 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: can only speak for our clients. I don't think that's 110 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: the case. I mean, we've done a good job I 111 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 1: think of preparing our corporate clients over the last few 112 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 1: weeks and months of this situation as it sort of 113 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: loomed over the markets. We're trying to make sure everyone's 114 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: kind of prepared for the worst but planning for the best. UM. 115 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: I think the volatility that we've seen over the last 116 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: few weeks really speaks to how nervous the market is 117 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: either way on how this will play out. Well. I 118 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: think it's interesting and the reason you point out to 119 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: us in a note you sent over that the building 120 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,799 Speaker 1: of positions currency positions from bulls and bears suggest while 121 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 1: pound bulls maybe regaining the upper hand, the uncertain nature 122 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 1: of the vote will pave the way for large and 123 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: ill liquid moves once the votes of intellige I think 124 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: that's really important. Think a lot of people figure if 125 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: they vote to stay forget about Friday, Friday, even like Thursday, 126 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 1: this could unleash a lot of turmoil in currency markets. Absolutely, 127 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: you have to wonder about the time of the year. 128 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: It's the summer. Markets have thinned out a little bit, 129 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: desks are half staffed, So even if without the Brexit, 130 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: we would see a little bit ramp up in volatility. 131 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: So UM, despite what happens on Thursday, we should see 132 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: um a little bit of a follow through into early 133 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: next week. On either side, what is the thinking about 134 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: the strength and weakness of the US dollar. Well, the 135 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: dollars kind of had a funny run, and I think 136 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: it's gonna be, um, sort of a choppy trade through 137 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: the summer. You have to remember it's an election year, 138 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: so we've got many different things in play. UM. I 139 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: know that Chairman Yellen will be addressing Congress tomorrow and Wednesday, 140 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: and I expect her to maintain a consistent statement with 141 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: what um the Fed came out with last week. I 142 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: don't think she's gonna try to rock the boat. UM. Sorry, no. 143 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: My My thought process is that over the next few weeks, 144 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: once we do get the Brexit out of the way, UM, 145 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: if we do see market stabilized a little bit, we 146 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: do see oil continue to recover, maybe that should pave 147 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: the way for the Fed to begin to get comfortable 148 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: with maybe a move in September. In that way, we 149 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: could see the dollar catch a bid tone towards the 150 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: end of the cucond point and they want to let 151 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: the dust settle. But what what could she say tomorrow 152 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: that would rock the boat. Jim Buller, president St. Louis Fed, 153 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: rocked the boat a bit on Friday when he revealed 154 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: that he is the forecast for only one rate increase 155 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: now this year, but for the next two years. I 156 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: will Janet Yellen do you think be would you like 157 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: to hear her away on that? What could she say 158 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: or about policy tomorrow that would cause you to buy 159 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: or sell some currencies? Well? I think if she made 160 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 1: any direct statements to the next meeting in July, if 161 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 1: she got specific with July or September, I think that 162 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 1: could cause for some volatility in the short term. UM. 163 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: That's why I think she's going to be more vague 164 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 1: with her statement. I think she's gonna try to be 165 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: very consistent with with what the committee came out with 166 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: last week and try to avoid locking down UM the 167 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: Fed with anything UM concrete over the next two meetings. 168 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: She's gonna want to leave it open, leave it open. 169 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: What about the Bank of England? You think they're leaving 170 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 1: it open. You think there's a possibility that Mark Karney, 171 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: the Bank of England, will raise rates before the Federal 172 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: Reserve raises rates. Uh No, I don't. I don't think 173 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: that's all. I like Mark Arney. He did, he did 174 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: an excellent job at the Bank of the Bank of 175 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 1: Canada and so far he steered the ship in England 176 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: very well. Um, right now, I think it's gonna take 177 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: a little bit of time for um, for for the 178 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: bridge to kind of see how this Brexit either way 179 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: kind of stifts through. And I think in action is 180 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: probably the best action. So you talk you corporate clients. 181 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 1: What kind of corporate clients do you have, and what 182 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: is there? What is their fear, what is their hope 183 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: in all of this? Well, their fear is their hope 184 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: is probably for a little bit of a non event. 185 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: I mean, most of our clients here in the US 186 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: are buyers of f X, their buyers of Euros, buyers 187 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: of stone, and they're hedging that direction. So um, you know, 188 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 1: I was just reading the op ed that Muhammad Alarian 189 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 1: wrote this morning and blew Burg noting that we could 190 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: see a seven seven to ten percent drop in Sterling, 191 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: maybe a three to five percent drop in the euro 192 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: should the brexit go through. I think that's their biggest fear, 193 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 1: you know, overheaging or maybe putting themselves in a position 194 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 1: to to miss that move where they're jumping in it 195 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: and one twelve in the euro and then we're resetting 196 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: midweek next week around one oh five in the euro 197 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: and maybe as low as one thirty five in the pound, 198 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 1: So that's kind of their biggest fear. You don't share 199 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: that fear at the moment right now. I don't think 200 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 1: it's gonna go through. UM. I didn't think it had 201 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: a great job of going through before what happened last 202 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 1: week with with Joe Cox. I know that the sentiment 203 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 1: has kind of shifted to back the remain vote. UM. 204 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: But you know, if you look at these referendums historically, 205 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 1: you're gonna need to see that the under side with 206 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: about a six or seven percent raise before we see 207 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: the uh, the vocal through. Thank you very much, Stephen 208 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: Casey for x Trader, Senior Market Analyst, Cambridge Global Payments. 209 00:10:55,720 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. 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