1
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:13,319
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

2
00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:17,320
Speaker 1: I'm Chatmanment, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It

3
00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:22,600
Speaker 1: is Thursday. I am joined by my bff, my companion,

4
00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:30,280
Speaker 1: Michael Padre, professional better, Mr Simon Hunter. What up? Brother

5
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:35,040
Speaker 1: Sad who excited for the night. Buddy'd been drinking since

6
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,400
Speaker 1: I woke up this morning. Getting ready? Head over to

7
00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,320
Speaker 1: Jetro after the show is done and continue tail game

8
00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,960
Speaker 1: before this Eagles Tampa Bay kick off. Listen Even without

9
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:49,120
Speaker 1: a game, that's just another Thursday in Philadelphia and South Jersey.

10
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:51,800
Speaker 1: We all know that we got a lot to talk

11
00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,520
Speaker 1: about because, as everybody knows, on Tuesday, we go over

12
00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 1: the entire slate, we start pinpointing the games and the

13
00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,160
Speaker 1: numbers that we love. Onto days show, we will narrow

14
00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:05,559
Speaker 1: it down and we will try to pick six seven

15
00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,600
Speaker 1: games that we love, and out of those six or seven,

16
00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,520
Speaker 1: we will choose the five best. We will share those

17
00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,520
Speaker 1: on Sunday via our various avenues, whether it's Twitter, whether

18
00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,080
Speaker 1: it's following us in the free and award winning Action

19
00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:23,119
Speaker 1: Network app. We will also today pinpoint the money line

20
00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:28,120
Speaker 1: parlay we love. We will settle on a survivor pick.

21
00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:32,560
Speaker 1: We will remind people that you can watch Convince Me

22
00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:36,400
Speaker 1: with Me and Simon Hunter, Sean Crooner, Chris RayBan, Samantha

23
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,280
Speaker 1: Riviti on Fantasy, and Darren Ravell on Market News. On

24
00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,720
Speaker 1: Sunday Mornings. I Love An a m Eastern at Action

25
00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,520
Speaker 1: Network HQ. A lot of what we're discussing today will

26
00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,360
Speaker 1: be refined, narrowed down. This is always the really fun

27
00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,880
Speaker 1: podcast for me because, as you know, I love my

28
00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:55,360
Speaker 1: Thursday mornings. I get my espresso, I get my Green

29
00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:59,880
Speaker 1: Team MATCHA, get my apples of peanut butter. I settle in,

30
00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,320
Speaker 1: I do my research, Get ready for the day, Get

31
00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:05,160
Speaker 1: ready for the podcasts. You're too old, You're just an

32
00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,359
Speaker 1: old man. Before we get to all that, we do

33
00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,280
Speaker 1: the podcast on Tuesday, we do it on Thursday. Between

34
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:17,040
Speaker 1: Tuesday and Thursday, lines move, injury reports, get updated, markets change,

35
00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:22,600
Speaker 1: and you get calls from your wise guy buddies criticizing

36
00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:30,960
Speaker 1: or supporting some of our decisions. Let's get some sharp calls. Hello,

37
00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:40,959
Speaker 1: who's there, I'm talking? Yeah, lucky that Hey, it wasn't

38
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,680
Speaker 1: as strong as it was last week. Uh, I wouldn't

39
00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,360
Speaker 1: say it wasn't there. I had a couple of guys

40
00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,160
Speaker 1: immediately calling me up Tuesday night and just said, what

41
00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,640
Speaker 1: are you guys thinking here taking this Bills team on

42
00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,400
Speaker 1: the road against the tendency Titans. But I was expected.

43
00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,040
Speaker 1: I knew professionals are gonna love that Tennessee Titan number.

44
00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:01,239
Speaker 1: That's just a classic primetime home dog. I'm almost always

45
00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,320
Speaker 1: on that position. But again, I just love this matchup

46
00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 1: for this Bills team. So they didn't move me too

47
00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,080
Speaker 1: much with that conversation. I think they finally tucked me

48
00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:15,320
Speaker 1: off this Jaguars team. Chet Um really yeah, I still

49
00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:16,760
Speaker 1: love the three and a half, but it's down to

50
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:21,640
Speaker 1: three now, Vanduel Um. You know, I might maybe I

51
00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:25,560
Speaker 1: am betting too much with my head thinking that I

52
00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,800
Speaker 1: have this number at one it's three and a half.

53
00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,760
Speaker 1: I think I'm getting great value. I have to take

54
00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:32,519
Speaker 1: a step back. Like these guys keep saying to me,

55
00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,800
Speaker 1: They're like, how can you trust Urban Meyer Like that

56
00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,560
Speaker 1: cover they had against the Bengals, Any any any kind

57
00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,840
Speaker 1: of coach that is just half a brain wins that

58
00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,720
Speaker 1: game like they had against the Bengals. Um and he

59
00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 1: blew that game. So I I was coming into this weekend,

60
00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:50,920
Speaker 1: I was gonna make that one of my bigger bets.

61
00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,400
Speaker 1: Now that's probably not gonna being my top fifteen, like bets,

62
00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,640
Speaker 1: signs and totals that I even hit this week. So

63
00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,080
Speaker 1: I'm kind of walking back off the Jags after having

64
00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,040
Speaker 1: a couple of conversations, and the last one was you

65
00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:06,440
Speaker 1: wanted me to find out more about this Arizona Cardinals game. Um,

66
00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:08,000
Speaker 1: I mean, man, Mitch can cut this out. I don't

67
00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:09,480
Speaker 1: know if I'm talking out of school, but a guy

68
00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 1: who works in the business with the last name Sharp,

69
00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,880
Speaker 1: which is a made up last name, apparently his group

70
00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,240
Speaker 1: is the one that hit that Arizona Cardinals line. Um,

71
00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:19,800
Speaker 1: they hit it Sunday night, they hit it again Monday,

72
00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,160
Speaker 1: and now they're buying back. They bought back at two

73
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,520
Speaker 1: and a half because I think they realized they kind

74
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,320
Speaker 1: of made an air here where Arizona has kind of

75
00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,400
Speaker 1: had some injuries come out lately, their centers out of

76
00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 1: the game. Now, the weather isn't looking ideal for the

77
00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,320
Speaker 1: playing style of this Cardinals team, so apparently they bought

78
00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:38,200
Speaker 1: out their position. They're hitting back to their side on

79
00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,919
Speaker 1: the Browns. I only bought more um stock in this

80
00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,480
Speaker 1: Browns team at two and a half, so I'm all

81
00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,240
Speaker 1: in on the Browns. That's now that it's moved the

82
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 1: other way back to three, I'm pretty sure me and

83
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,640
Speaker 1: Chad are gonna lock this one is our best five.

84
00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,640
Speaker 1: We just love this number, so I um, I'm interested

85
00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,600
Speaker 1: to see where it ends up because of what weather

86
00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,400
Speaker 1: might come in on Sunday. But if you can still

87
00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:01,800
Speaker 1: get two and a half of your book when you

88
00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:06,560
Speaker 1: hear this, please please take this Brown's number. I love

89
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:10,000
Speaker 1: this Browns, this Brown's number the whole week, and we're

90
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,000
Speaker 1: gonna dig We're gonna dig deeper into that. We're not

91
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,000
Speaker 1: going to talk much more about the Jags because I

92
00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,680
Speaker 1: think that's really interesting. But does that mean that all

93
00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,839
Speaker 1: of a sudden, like, have you been convinced that you're

94
00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,120
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins or have you just been convinced this

95
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,280
Speaker 1: is a game in which you're not going to invest much. Yeah,

96
00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,240
Speaker 1: we can see what's up with Ta that's uh like Again,

97
00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:31,560
Speaker 1: that was one of my biggest whiffs of the preseason.

98
00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:33,680
Speaker 1: I was all in on Miami and Ta. I really

99
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,200
Speaker 1: thought he was gonna take the next step and he hasn't,

100
00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,520
Speaker 1: and that division is just looking incredibly weak. So that

101
00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,560
Speaker 1: was one of those trained training chain reactions here where

102
00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,599
Speaker 1: I'll probably been on Miami. But yeah, like, my my

103
00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,719
Speaker 1: biggest bet right now we can talk about this stuff

104
00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:54,160
Speaker 1: is um is the Eagles by far plus seven. UM.

105
00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,640
Speaker 1: I hit that number multiple times a bunch of different books, dandels.

106
00:05:57,680 --> 00:05:59,240
Speaker 1: Moving down a six and a half, I still like

107
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:00,760
Speaker 1: a six and a half half, I have this at

108
00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:04,280
Speaker 1: four and a half. So this is again I don't

109
00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:05,760
Speaker 1: want to give it. I didn't give up to my clients.

110
00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:07,520
Speaker 1: Is one of my four biggest bets of the year,

111
00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:09,680
Speaker 1: but it's getting up there at this point. Like I've

112
00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 1: just hit this number so many times now, and if

113
00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,279
Speaker 1: it wasn't a Thursday night game, this would be a

114
00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,359
Speaker 1: no brainer, huge bet for me. But because it is

115
00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,120
Speaker 1: Thursday night, we've just seen it time and time again.

116
00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 1: Just these big favorites on Thursday Night end up covering

117
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,000
Speaker 1: for some reason. It's a reason I had any type

118
00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,120
Speaker 1: of pause. But I do think this is a bad

119
00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,960
Speaker 1: number in this Tampa Bay Eagles game. Should we be

120
00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,400
Speaker 1: considering it right now for one of our five? Should

121
00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,080
Speaker 1: we pull the trigger on a Thursday game? I mean

122
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:39,560
Speaker 1: I wanted to beg you for it. I feel like

123
00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:40,880
Speaker 1: I was worried about you being like this is a

124
00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:42,800
Speaker 1: Homer pick, but I promise you it isn't like this

125
00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:45,599
Speaker 1: is truly a value based pick. Well, listen, I don't

126
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:49,960
Speaker 1: think it's a Homer pick at all. Everybody is loving

127
00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,040
Speaker 1: the Eagles in this spot. If I can think about

128
00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:57,640
Speaker 1: like one area where I am finding consistent consensus, it

129
00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,800
Speaker 1: is on the Eagles as underdogs. And you're right, this

130
00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:06,640
Speaker 1: number has been hit uh pretty hard um across the board.

131
00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,279
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the numbers right now. It's plus six

132
00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:14,040
Speaker 1: and a half. And what's interesting is the money. The

133
00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,280
Speaker 1: the amount of money bet on on each side is

134
00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:21,240
Speaker 1: relatively split. The bets are heavily in favorite of the Buccaneers.

135
00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,760
Speaker 1: So like to me, this is feeling a little bit

136
00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,720
Speaker 1: like a pros Joe's game. Now. My runners said he

137
00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:29,960
Speaker 1: talked to the two different bookmakers. One of the guys

138
00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,560
Speaker 1: that was at board data. He's claiming they have thirteen

139
00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,560
Speaker 1: to one tickets right now in favorite of the Buccaneers

140
00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,280
Speaker 1: compared to the Eagles. And we live in New Jersey,

141
00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,440
Speaker 1: so I can't imagine what it is across the country,

142
00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:44,040
Speaker 1: how much more money the Buccaneers are getting. But people

143
00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,600
Speaker 1: can go through the data. I believe Tom Brady is

144
00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,640
Speaker 1: oh and eight or owned seven against the spread in

145
00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:54,240
Speaker 1: primetime games. So it's a little scary where this guy

146
00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,200
Speaker 1: is due to cover one. This is such an inflated line.

147
00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,200
Speaker 1: We talked about all the time with this the defense

148
00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,800
Speaker 1: of woes and there. There's just too much value on

149
00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,440
Speaker 1: this Eagles team not to put enough money down on it.

150
00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,840
Speaker 1: And I try to warrant people that the Chiefs Buccaneers

151
00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,600
Speaker 1: teaser this week. You know I love chalkie teasers. Stay away.

152
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,000
Speaker 1: I'm begging people stay away. It's alre. I mean, last

153
00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,240
Speaker 1: time I checked how much money is on these two

154
00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:21,320
Speaker 1: these two sides and the Chiefs and the Bucking Years.

155
00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,800
Speaker 1: So I hope people can take on like you know,

156
00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,760
Speaker 1: it's one of those where even if the Buccaneers Chiefs hit, yeah,

157
00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,520
Speaker 1: you can be mad at me, but I'm trying to

158
00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,920
Speaker 1: save you money because it's it's it is a trap

159
00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,040
Speaker 1: and they're laying these traps after last week. And everyone

160
00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,400
Speaker 1: I've talked to, all my job public friends that reach

161
00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,960
Speaker 1: out to me, they look, that's their favorite teaser this week,

162
00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:44,040
Speaker 1: So please stay away from that Buccaneers Chiefs teaser. What

163
00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,320
Speaker 1: what number can we get if we were to put

164
00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,079
Speaker 1: this into our five best in a mythical contest, it's

165
00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,160
Speaker 1: gonna be six and a half. I mean, like that's

166
00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,360
Speaker 1: the contest. I've gotten smarter where they know where the

167
00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:55,920
Speaker 1: sharp money is gonna come in, and they move that

168
00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,520
Speaker 1: number to it just because they want to scare us off,

169
00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:00,360
Speaker 1: like it's worked for them all year and you have

170
00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,320
Speaker 1: been terrified. We move it off the numbers that we like.

171
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,559
Speaker 1: So obviously if this was plus seven, no brain or bet,

172
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,000
Speaker 1: but still plus six. We talked about how that's a

173
00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,280
Speaker 1: key number now with all these miss extra points and

174
00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,400
Speaker 1: things like that, we like the plus six and a half.

175
00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:14,760
Speaker 1: And now it's in here talking about the Eagles has

176
00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:16,880
Speaker 1: to be our hornets nest play, doesn't it. I couldn't

177
00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,480
Speaker 1: agree more. Let's go, let's walk into that hornet's nest.

178
00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,120
Speaker 1: Let's get stunk. I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest.

179
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:36,400
Speaker 1: All right, now'll be my companions. All right. You have

180
00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,040
Speaker 1: to love the reverse line movement, like when it's it's

181
00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,240
Speaker 1: moving down and people think they're getting a better number

182
00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,600
Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers. It's such a great feeling as a professional.

183
00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:47,200
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna put a pin in that one.

184
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 1: We'll come back to it. The next game that was

185
00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:54,440
Speaker 1: on our list were the Texans plus ten against the Colts.

186
00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,800
Speaker 1: That number has moved down from eleven and a half.

187
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:04,440
Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly against it. I don't feel strongly

188
00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,480
Speaker 1: for it. It's a bet the right number kind of bet.

189
00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 1: I I don't know, like if we love the Eagles

190
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,800
Speaker 1: and we're gonna get to the Browns, Like, there's probably

191
00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:16,520
Speaker 1: a couple of games, a handful of games that I

192
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,000
Speaker 1: like a little better than this one. So um, I

193
00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:24,400
Speaker 1: don't feel strongly bet in the Texans plus ten right now. Yeah,

194
00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:26,080
Speaker 1: and actually know a couple of professionals that are on

195
00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,000
Speaker 1: the Colts in this matchup, which makes you feel in

196
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,880
Speaker 1: better about our survivor. Pick. Um, this will be a

197
00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:32,600
Speaker 1: tough week for you having to pick two. This is

198
00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,000
Speaker 1: like there's a lot of well I don't have to

199
00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:36,880
Speaker 1: pick two. I only have to pick two one more

200
00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:40,040
Speaker 1: time before week ten, and I am contemplating this as

201
00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 1: being a week two thing and we can get to this.

202
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,680
Speaker 1: But I kind of like the Colts and the Steelers. Yeah,

203
00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,640
Speaker 1: actually I like that to sneaky playing the Steelers. Um,

204
00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,920
Speaker 1: But I just keep getting flashbacks of the Steelers are

205
00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,960
Speaker 1: playing the awful Jaguars team with Blake Bortles and Big

206
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,439
Speaker 1: Borrows comes in and puts a forty five points on Pittsburgh.

207
00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,280
Speaker 1: It's like, this is this is the I am. I

208
00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:04,520
Speaker 1: stay away from Pittsburgh. So um, listen, listen to me,

209
00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:10,280
Speaker 1: hold on, hold on. You're a professional. Better you bet

210
00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,960
Speaker 1: based on what you see in your power ratings, in

211
00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:18,000
Speaker 1: the numbers, in the research, in the data. Do not

212
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 1: let me feel like you are influenced by bad dreams

213
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 1: and nightmares from Blake Bortles years past. You have not

214
00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 1: been bordled. You've just been bordled and not at all.

215
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 1: I bet awful teams consecutive weeks in a row chat.

216
00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:37,880
Speaker 1: That's that's what I do, baby. But I'm just warning

217
00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,079
Speaker 1: these people out here that it looks like a real

218
00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,120
Speaker 1: easy lay up taking Pittsburgh in primetime at home against

219
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,920
Speaker 1: Geno Smith, little fishy, little fishy, And I had that

220
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:48,520
Speaker 1: line at four or four and a half, and now

221
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:52,920
Speaker 1: it's with the fine half, so I don't know. It's

222
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,840
Speaker 1: it's one of those I'm advising people stay well, even

223
00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:56,080
Speaker 1: though I get it you just want to get rid

224
00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,880
Speaker 1: of the Steelers and the survival pool. What's What's worse

225
00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,199
Speaker 1: than getting rid of the Colts. I'm culture terrible. I'm

226
00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,800
Speaker 1: happy to get rid of them this week and survivors.

227
00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:07,120
Speaker 1: So the the plus ten I get if you want

228
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:11,000
Speaker 1: to stay away, but I don't know it's I'm gonna

229
00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:12,960
Speaker 1: be betting it, but yeah, it probably won't be one

230
00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:16,000
Speaker 1: of my favorite five. Also, if you like this Houston team,

231
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,480
Speaker 1: they're saying to Rod Taylor's me back next week, I've

232
00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 1: already bet the plus fourteen against Arizona next week with

233
00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,480
Speaker 1: this Houston team just in case he does come back.

234
00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,800
Speaker 1: I can see the line dropping. So do you like

235
00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,240
Speaker 1: this Houston team with Rod Taylor as a quarterback? Plus

236
00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,400
Speaker 1: fourteen next week has good value? Man? That is professional.

237
00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:36,040
Speaker 1: That is called value investing right there? Sadly twenty limits

238
00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,000
Speaker 1: you can't put that much down, but I still like.

239
00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,600
Speaker 1: I still think it's a good value. Guy, I don't.

240
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,600
Speaker 1: I don't get anything less than five times, So if

241
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,880
Speaker 1: I can't get if I can't get more than a

242
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:48,680
Speaker 1: thousand down, then it's not it's probably not gonna be

243
00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:55,080
Speaker 1: worth my time. Uh, here's an interesting game on on Tuesday.

244
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:59,400
Speaker 1: We love the Washington football team plus seven. Uh the

245
00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,640
Speaker 1: line has in bet down two six and a half,

246
00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,720
Speaker 1: So sharp money is coming in on this Washington football

247
00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:08,120
Speaker 1: team because the bets are all over the Chiefs. So

248
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,320
Speaker 1: the question becomes at six and a half, are we

249
00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,480
Speaker 1: all of a sudden betting the Chiefs against a Washington

250
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 1: football team defense that really just isn't very good and

251
00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:23,160
Speaker 1: a quarterback who doesn't seem to sort of be able

252
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,559
Speaker 1: to make the progressions as we wouldn't expect them to.

253
00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,920
Speaker 1: He's not an elite level NFL quarterback. He's a guy

254
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,280
Speaker 1: who was out of the league, shows flashes of athleticism,

255
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:39,839
Speaker 1: makes miraculous heroic plays against bad teams. But are we

256
00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:41,680
Speaker 1: feeling like the Chiefs of the right side at six

257
00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,840
Speaker 1: and a half? Yeah, and that was our Simon says,

258
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,319
Speaker 1: plays simply because I didn't think the seven we're gonna last.

259
00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,120
Speaker 1: I kind of looked like the pros, we're gonna come

260
00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,320
Speaker 1: in on this number, and they did. It's just a

261
00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,920
Speaker 1: smart number to go down on. So yeah, I wouldn't

262
00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:56,560
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs here at six and a half just

263
00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,440
Speaker 1: because it's still a little too high for their defense.

264
00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,440
Speaker 1: It's there's just something wrong there this Chief's team. They

265
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:07,400
Speaker 1: can't run the ball to establish you know, a lead.

266
00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:09,199
Speaker 1: They like, they get up on a team, it team

267
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 1: is gonna be able to come back at any time.

268
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:14,320
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I wouldn't I wouldn't tell people

269
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,400
Speaker 1: to take a six and a half with the Chiefs.

270
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,280
Speaker 1: I would probably still be on the Washington side with that.

271
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,400
Speaker 1: But if you got down to five five and a half, yeah,

272
00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,040
Speaker 1: I like the Chiefs in that position. But at this number,

273
00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 1: they're still getting good value in this Washington team just

274
00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:30,320
Speaker 1: because of that defense. With this Kansas City Chiefs team.

275
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,920
Speaker 1: Right now, we talked about the Chargers in the Ravens

276
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 1: when this game was at plus three. There are places

277
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:45,080
Speaker 1: on the board right now where you can get the

278
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:51,760
Speaker 1: um Ravens for minus two and a half right now,

279
00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 1: same feeling like I'm on the Ravens, but no, don't

280
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:00,480
Speaker 1: want to make it one of my biggest bets. I'm

281
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,680
Speaker 1: gonna have way more money bet on the Chargers in

282
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,760
Speaker 1: a teaser because you're gonna be like, right now, get

283
00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:07,440
Speaker 1: you get Chargers eight and a half. In what world

284
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,680
Speaker 1: can he not cover that number? It's like you you're

285
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,040
Speaker 1: kind of betting on Herbert really keeping you in this game.

286
00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:13,800
Speaker 1: That's just a smart number at eight and a half.

287
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 1: In a teaser. But of course I still like the Ravens.

288
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 1: They're just a great running team against a really bad

289
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,280
Speaker 1: run defense. And I know they're gonna try and make

290
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 1: a one dimensional the Chargers. They'll they'll they'll stack the

291
00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,480
Speaker 1: box and make Lamar try to beat him with his arm.

292
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 1: He's won a bunch of games this year with his arm.

293
00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:31,920
Speaker 1: I don't love it enough to make it one of

294
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,400
Speaker 1: our best five. Like I felt really good about coming

295
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,440
Speaker 1: into this week. Don't overthink this. Just do the Chargers

296
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,080
Speaker 1: in a teaser. Get them over eight and a half.

297
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,800
Speaker 1: That's a great number to have Herbert, Like, any time

298
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 1: you're gonna be able to get Herbert this year is

299
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 1: a dog. They're gonna feel good about it. So I

300
00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 1: I'm still on the Ravens. I'm gonna try to hit

301
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 1: that middle though. Get tick the eight and a half.

302
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:54,000
Speaker 1: Take the two and a half of the Ravens. One

303
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:59,920
Speaker 1: of the games we loved. Uh Bengals Lions. This is

304
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:04,040
Speaker 1: at three and a half. Now there are places where

305
00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:09,040
Speaker 1: it's at three, um, so it's been heading in the

306
00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:13,760
Speaker 1: Lions direction. I like this at heating number because I

307
00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:18,200
Speaker 1: think the Lions are a sneaky money line dog here.

308
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,120
Speaker 1: This is definitely when these games are losing, because it

309
00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 1: feels too easy. Like I love this number, it really does.

310
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,480
Speaker 1: That's why it's making me so scared. Like the three

311
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,320
Speaker 1: and a half did not make sense at all, Like

312
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 1: they had to have known pros. We're gonna pound that number.

313
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:36,280
Speaker 1: Um makes sense. Now that's down to three. Bengals again,

314
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 1: they are a good team, no doubt they can pass

315
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,800
Speaker 1: the ball. The Lions are very weak in the secondary

316
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 1: at this point. That's one of the bigger weaknesses. But

317
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,640
Speaker 1: Lions just don't go away, and we've seen it where

318
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 1: they're kind of always in these games. And at three

319
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:53,400
Speaker 1: and a half, this was a great number. At three,

320
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 1: I don't love it as much. Kind of love that hook.

321
00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:57,840
Speaker 1: I know you think they can get the r right win.

322
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,400
Speaker 1: Some of these teams just can't win this This destroyed team.

323
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 1: They don't know how to win yet. Um, And they're

324
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 1: trying to they're trying to learn, but they just haven't

325
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,960
Speaker 1: figured out. So I still love it at three and

326
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:09,480
Speaker 1: a half if that's what it is in our our

327
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,920
Speaker 1: contest for our best five. But at three it's kind

328
00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:14,679
Speaker 1: of like making me a little scared off at this

329
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 1: point because it's like, Uh, it's too easy. That's It's

330
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:19,840
Speaker 1: one of these games I look at where it just

331
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 1: seems too easy and the numbers all line up that

332
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 1: way where I had to set to three and a half,

333
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 1: you know, point a half difference. That's huge value from you.

334
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,120
Speaker 1: So still still like it at three. I just don't

335
00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 1: love it as much as I did at three and

336
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 1: a half. We're actually having a hard time finding five

337
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:43,640
Speaker 1: that we potentially love. Oh, I got you, you do

338
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,760
Speaker 1: all right? Well, we're not done yet. We got like six, seven,

339
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 1: we got plenty, we got four other games that I

340
00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:56,199
Speaker 1: want to talk about. Um, so we're not We're not

341
00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 1: entirely done yet. Uh do you want to talk about

342
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 1: Vikings and Panthers. We had sort of waffled on that

343
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:08,360
Speaker 1: one the other day. Still pro game, all pros will

344
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,040
Speaker 1: be on the Panthers. The Vikings are bad away from home,

345
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 1: their badest favorites. I think they're owing seven or owned

346
00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:16,879
Speaker 1: five or something like that in their last uh seven,

347
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,880
Speaker 1: five or six starts as favorites. They're just not reliable.

348
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 1: This is when Kirk kind of lets teams down, and

349
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 1: I love the bounce back spot for Sam Donald on

350
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 1: this position against just not that good of a defense.

351
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,160
Speaker 1: And the Vikings, I know they had a crazy game

352
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 1: against the Browns where they really shut down the Browns offense.

353
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 1: It was just more like a flukey, sloppy game. Um,

354
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,840
Speaker 1: I like the I like Carolina get right in this game.

355
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,879
Speaker 1: So if you're if you're cool with putting this one in.

356
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 1: I know they burned us last week, but at home

357
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 1: is a dog. It's a great number. I want nothing

358
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,199
Speaker 1: to do with this game, staying away. Yeah, this is

359
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 1: a terrible idea. Uh, this is one of those games

360
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 1: where how do I want to think about this game?

361
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 1: It's a little bit like last week, Like you know,

362
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:05,439
Speaker 1: there were reasons to like or not like either side,

363
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 1: And like this game, there is no consensus. We can

364
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 1: make whatever decision we want to make based on whatever

365
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,119
Speaker 1: numbers we decided to believe in. Do we want to

366
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,160
Speaker 1: take a short home dog with a really good defense.

367
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 1: Do we want to fade a spotty quarterback who is

368
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 1: reverting back to his old habits in Sam Donald? Do

369
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,879
Speaker 1: you want to be on a Vikings team that consistently

370
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 1: finds ways to put themselves in a position to lose

371
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 1: alas since he and Detroit and Arizona. Um, so this

372
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,239
Speaker 1: to me feel like you're not you're not telling me

373
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:46,320
Speaker 1: anything that says we have a handicapping edge in this game.

374
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,120
Speaker 1: It's a field game, and I don't feel good. Yeah,

375
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,160
Speaker 1: it's fair. Um, it is one of those games I'll

376
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,120
Speaker 1: be teasing. Um, Caroline, you can get them right now

377
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:56,439
Speaker 1: there plus one and a half. You can get them

378
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:57,879
Speaker 1: up a seven a half right now, And it's easer.

379
00:19:57,920 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 1: That's a great, great number to hal at a home doll.

380
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 1: It feels like maybe a Chargers Panthers teaser might be

381
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 1: the way to go right. Yeah, and all the hay

382
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 1: we've been getting I think in the Action app, I'm

383
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 1: like twenty and four or twenty and five on teasers

384
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 1: this season. I mean, come on, people, that's I mean,

385
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 1: that's sounds like we got a six point teaser. The

386
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 1: worst part is the new Jersey is getting new Jerk

387
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 1: is getting tough with these teasers, like most of Juice

388
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 1: on most of these teachers now the minus one thirty,

389
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: minus one forty, it is getting kind of brutal. Yeah,

390
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 1: it's bullshit. It's like they don't want you to win.

391
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 1: It's like they're trying to keep their money. Yeah, it's ridiculous.

392
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, the Jersey books are getting as

393
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 1: smart as the Vegas books. Um, all right, here's what

394
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 1: I know. We're gonna dig in on green Bay Packers

395
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:53,359
Speaker 1: visiting the Chicago Bears. They're four and a half point favorites.

396
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 1: The Packers are. We squared this one on Tuesday Pro

397
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 1: Joe game, which it still is. I can't find any

398
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: reason that I don't want to bid the Bears. Yeah.

399
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: The only fear is the green Bay has been absolutely

400
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 1: horrible in the red zone, and you expect that to

401
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 1: come back down to a middle part like I think

402
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: our twenty seven and red zone efficiency, it would make

403
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 1: more sense if they hit middle of the pack down

404
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 1: to thirteen or fourteen with Aaron Rodgers. But we're trying

405
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 1: to capitalize on that. We have a Bears defense that's

406
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 1: really good in the red zone. We have a Bears

407
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 1: defense plays great at home. We're betting a lot on

408
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 1: Justin Fields here. We're betting on Justin Fields can kind

409
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: of have a good game where he did not play

410
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 1: well in Vegas. He did enough obviously to win. Didn't

411
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: play well. Um, we need more explosive players, more downfield throws,

412
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: from them. So this is a a scary number at

413
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: four and a half, but I think you're getting a

414
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 1: great number because it's gonna go down to four or

415
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 1: three and a half by kickoff. The pros will come

416
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 1: in on this just because everyone's like the same thing.

417
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: That Bears defense just plays much better at home, and

418
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: the Green Bay team has just not They've won games, right,

419
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 1: They've been good this year, but they just haven't looked

420
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: like they did last year. They were this unstoppable force.

421
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 1: There's a little bit of holes and you know, a

422
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 1: divisional game for you know, first place in this division.

423
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: The Bears team is gonna get up for this at home.

424
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,719
Speaker 1: We love it at four and a half. It's We're

425
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 1: Me and Chad. If you haven't noticed, we love home dogs.

426
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 1: This is what he talked about. We circled this one

427
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: because this is one of one of my favorite players

428
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 1: this week. You love the Bears in this position. The

429
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 1: only Paul is again it's a rookie quarterback. There's a

430
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: lot of unknown just from that standpoint. You never really

431
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 1: know what you're gonna get from that. But matchup wise, defense,

432
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears defense against the Screen Bay offense. I

433
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:46,199
Speaker 1: love that towards the Bears defense. A couple of stats

434
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 1: that I'm stealing from the Action Network podcast with Chris

435
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 1: ray Bond and Stucky. The Packers are the only team

436
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: in the league that is four and one and has

437
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 1: a negative point differential. This team is a fucking reputation.

438
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 1: It's not a good team, right and uh that's number one.

439
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 1: Number two the past two weeks. Again, I stole this

440
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: directly from Raybon The last two weeks, the Bears are

441
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: running the ball cent of the time and they are

442
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 1: max protecting protecting for fields. So you couple that with

443
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: the fact that their pass rush from a from a

444
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: sack perspective is really good. Like they're there leading the

445
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: league in sacks right now. So there's no reason not

446
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: to feel comfortable betting on this Bears team, as much

447
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: as it makes me sick to my stomach because of

448
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 1: my allegiance, if I were looking at this and if

449
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 1: if this was Packers plus four and a half against

450
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 1: any other team that had the stats the Bears have,

451
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be hesitating, right, And some people are hanging

452
00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 1: up saying like should they not take the Bearers money line?

453
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, I'm taking their money line, like

454
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 1: the Egoist money line, Washington Football Team's moneyline, Detroit's money line,

455
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 1: the Bears money line, these home dogs. I love taking

456
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: money lines on home dogs just because it works out

457
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 1: for me. Maybe my fifth one is gonna be Oakland.

458
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,360
Speaker 1: That's a Las Vegas Raiders, I should say, because that's

459
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 1: a that's a team I really like to bounce back

460
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: this week. But um, it's it. I feel like too

461
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 1: many people are in a coming this week thinking what

462
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 1: you just said, They're going to glorify the Screen Bay team,

463
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 1: where they kind of need to look at what the

464
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: Screen Bay team is this season and they just have

465
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: not been right in a lot of ways. So we

466
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 1: try to catch them. Last week with the Bengals, I

467
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:36,959
Speaker 1: think we're gonna catch them this week with the Bears.

468
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: That was a bad, bad draw. So yeah, that was awful, awful.

469
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 1: I try really hard. I'm watching these games with my son,

470
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: who's going to be fifteen. We're very open about what

471
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 1: I do about betting, about betting money. We talked about

472
00:24:55,160 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: how I'm not betting money that is going to keep

473
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: us from being able to pay for the house, keep

474
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 1: us from being able to like put food on the

475
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: table keep anyone from going to college. You know, we

476
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 1: talked about betting responsibly all the time, and like, I

477
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 1: don't want him to think, oh, yeah, I got some money,

478
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna throw in a game and and not

479
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 1: be sort of considerate with his cash when he eventually

480
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: has some. Um. I also don't want him to think

481
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: like overreacting and throwing things at the TV and screaming

482
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 1: and yelling is the right way to manage your betting.

483
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 1: Uh So, last week when the Vikings were about to

484
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 1: lose for us in the Survivor pool and the Bengals

485
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 1: were missing field goals, uh, I was like doing everything

486
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: in my parental power to not scream, to not whip

487
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 1: my my phone across the room. It was hard. Like

488
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 1: the Bengals and Packers put us to the spence like

489
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, and like, uh, you actually make

490
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: me think of my ex where she used to be

491
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 1: like you handle like losing really well. Like literally know

492
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: I'm in her bathroom just screaming into a pillow like

493
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: top of my lungs. I'm just so mad, So I'm

494
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:14,479
Speaker 1: gonna I'm like you, I try to hide her from

495
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: the people around. But yeah, like inside, I'm dying. So

496
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 1: it is tough. Honestly, I feel like my wife doesn't

497
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 1: even know this. But when on the weekends, when we're

498
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: losing the most towards the end of the second games,

499
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: that's when I'm most active in the kitchen. I'm I decided,

500
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: I'm making dinner, or I'm doing all the dishes, or

501
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 1: I'm emptying the dishwasher, whatever it is. I'm like somewhere

502
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: away from the games, and I'm getting all these points

503
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: for being so fantastic and such a great husband, and

504
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 1: it's really just I need to find something to do

505
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: so I don't like break things. Our old friends Scooch,

506
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: former co host of this podcast, I used to say,

507
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: when all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

508
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: And that's kind of how you feel on a Sunday

509
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: afternoon when you're losing it is I feel like we're

510
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:07,959
Speaker 1: completely different people that you're going to help out the kitchen.

511
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 1: I'm like one of these people. I need to watch

512
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: myself die, like I have to watch just the ultimate pain,

513
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 1: just like really instill myself like you made this mistake.

514
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: That's why I like people always like I hate they

515
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 1: don't freak out on Twitter. You don't complain anything like that.

516
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: It's just as a professional, I I literally lean into it.

517
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: I suffer, and then on Monday it's a clean sheet.

518
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: It's like nothing ever happened. And like that's that's how

519
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: you have to be because the wins will come. That's

520
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: just a matter of fact. We have to understand. The

521
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: losses will come. No one wins, even the best professionals.

522
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: I know is the dream every season. So it's the

523
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: loss is hurt, but I know it's gonna go our

524
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 1: other way. That's why I try to get too down

525
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: on it because eventually it flips. It does. It always flips,

526
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: and this week it's gonna flip because we're gonna be

527
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: on the Browns minus three and we fucking love this number.

528
00:27:54,880 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: Easy money done done totally. I'm putting it in. I'm

529
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 1: putting it in the contest already. Not anything else to say.

530
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 1: Like we've talked about it. You talked about some of

531
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: the syndicates coming in betting on one side realizing they

532
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: made a mistake betting up the other side. Uh, the

533
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: matchup is great. It's a coaching matchup that we like.

534
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: Was Stefanski over Kingsbury, Um it's a on the field

535
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 1: match up with the Browns rushing game against the Cardinals

536
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: rushing defense. Uh, there's a weather advantage for the Browns

537
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: and the way they play versus the way the Cardinals play.

538
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,360
Speaker 1: Everything about it. Love it, love it, love it, want

539
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: to marry it, would want it to walk with me

540
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: to the end of the earth. Yep, no, no doubt.

541
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: This is one of our five. This is one of

542
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: my favorite bets this week. And now a word from

543
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: our friends at fan Duel, who want you to get

544
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: the most out of every NFL game day. That's why

545
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: they're giving everyone a ten dollar risk free bet every week.

546
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: All you have to do is bet a same game

547
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: parlay bet with three legs or more, and if your

548
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: bet doesn't win, FanDuel will pay you back up to

549
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 1: ten dollars. For example, this week, I'm considering taking the

550
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: Redskins plus six and a half the under and Patrick

551
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: Mahomes rushing yards under. I love FanDuel Sports Book because

552
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: they have America's number one rated sports book app and

553
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: their payouts are fast and secure. Plus, there's no feeling

554
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: like nailing a same game parlay bet, So locking your

555
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: bet today on FanDuel sports Book and get up to

556
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 1: ten bucks back if your bet doesn't win. You to

557
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 1: FanDuel sports Book. They are also offering a risk free

558
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: one thousand dollar bet. If you prefer that, Just sign

559
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 1: up with Promo Code Favorites and if your first bet loses,

560
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: you get up to one thousand dollars back in site credit.

561
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 1: That's Promo Code Favorites. You must be twenty one or

562
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia,

563
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Refund issued is non withdrawbal site credit

564
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 1: that expires in seven days. Max refund of ten dollars.

565
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: Restrictions apply sea terms at sports poop dot FanDuel dot com.

566
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: Same game parlay available for multiple sports in all states

567
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: on mobile and web. Gambling problem called one Gambler or

568
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: visit FanDuel dot com slash r G in Colorado, New Jersey,

569
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: Virginia one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana one

570
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 1: eight hundred to seven zero seven seven for confidential help.

571
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: In Michigan, the Tennessee red line is one eight hundred

572
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: eight eight nine eight nine. Visit one eight hundred gambler

573
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia or call one eight hundred

574
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 1: next step or text next step to five three three

575
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 1: four two in Arizona. Let's get back to it. If

576
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 1: we go to the next game and you tell me

577
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 1: that the Patriots are now one of your favorite five too,

578
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: by God, Simon, then I don't want to know you. Yeah, well,

579
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: it probably won't be one of our five we talked

580
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: about last week. I mean, on Tuesday, I loved it

581
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 1: at plus four. I was hoping to get to four

582
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: and a half. It's now down to three and a

583
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 1: half and might get down to three. Because the pros

584
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: are coming in on it. Yeah, I don't mind it,

585
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: but it's there's a reason I put in my round

586
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: Robin this this cow Boys team. They're just too good.

587
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: That's the only fear with this number. Were literally going

588
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: against the best against the spread team right now. So

589
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: eventually we're gonna be on the other side of a

590
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: lot of Dallas games because they're gonna be overinflated like

591
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: they are in this game. But they're just so high

592
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: right now. So it's it's a little terrifying where yes,

593
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 1: the numbers, all the things sake go against Dallas. The

594
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: human element stops me and says, don't put too much

595
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: money on this Patriots team. Okay, they they're You're literally

596
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 1: taking a rookie QB verse doc in a matchup that

597
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: a lot of its its slants towards this Dallas team.

598
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: They just have a lot of especially on the D

599
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: line of the old line. A lot of things are

600
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: better for this Dallas team than it is for the

601
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: Patriots team. So I do like the Patriots chap, but

602
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: I don't think this would be one of our best five.

603
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: I know you love the Raiders. Go ahead and tell me,

604
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: tell me why so I Actually we do a thing

605
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 1: here the actually where we do an NFL like power

606
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 1: rating thing. Um, we're pretty much putting our numbers from

607
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 1: our systems and you can see everyone's numbers. And that's

608
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: how I learned to love this guy named Travis Reid

609
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: who works for this company. This dude is a legit maniac.

610
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: He'll make like teenpoint underdogs, you know, a three point underdog.

611
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: This guy's system is wild, So I love him. I

612
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: love going on there and seeing what lines he puts

613
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: up there. The most interesting game this week is this one.

614
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: I'm the only one that has Las Vegas Raiders is

615
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: a favorite. So everyone else is all over this, this

616
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: Denver team. They think this is a good line. On

617
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 1: the other way, I have the I have Las Vegas

618
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: of minus one, so I love this number. I think

619
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 1: we're getting incredible value three and a half. And so

620
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,959
Speaker 1: with all the professionals I've talked to, everyone I know

621
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: is that this Las Vegas Raiders team. So it could

622
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: be a little bit of home bias of the boys

623
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 1: down the desert, but this is a smart number, and

624
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 1: I'm sure the Action Network it's the same thing to

625
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: say the money is towards Las Vegas right now. Uh

626
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: see right now this game it's all Broncos. So that's

627
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: pretty interesting. So yeah, maybe we'll see that switch switch.

628
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 1: I know that I've had a couple of guys reach

629
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: out that they they don't like all the drama right

630
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: now that's happening with Las Vegas. Like we have guys

631
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: get from practice and taking personal time to figure out

632
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: their own stuff. But this is just a great, great

633
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 1: bounce back spot for this Las Vegas team, and they're

634
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: playing against the Denver team. That yeah, I know that

635
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: I was kind of like turning the tide on them,

636
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: but I think we've kind of learned now those first

637
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: three games, they just played really bad teams, and we

638
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 1: don't think Las Vegas they might not be as good

639
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 1: as they looked early in the year. They're not a

640
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 1: really bad team, like like, they have a good offense.

641
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: So I still love this number three and a half.

642
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: I really hope you let me put this one in

643
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: for us. Listen, dude, I'm not I don't live in

644
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: a world where I keep people from chasing their dreams.

645
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 1: That's you know what, That's not the kind of relationship

646
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: I want to have with anybody. Someone wants something bad enough,

647
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 1: I want to be there to support them. Well, this

648
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 1: isn't a dream of mine, but I would like to

649
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 1: put it in. Okay, let's do it. What I would

650
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: like to know is why do you have this power

651
00:33:56,120 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: rated so differently than everybody else? I think every ones

652
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: just doesn't want to be touching this Las Vegas Raiders team.

653
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: It's just, uh, there's too much drama, too much unknown,

654
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: and they're also probably looking at from the standpoint of

655
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: Denver just plays better at home, but in a divisional matchup,

656
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 1: this is such a good number. I just I don't

657
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: I can't see a word that we don't get we

658
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: don't cover three points in this matchup. Derek Carr had

659
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: a stinker last week. This is a great bounce back

660
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 1: spot frame against a Denver team that was a little

661
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 1: overrated the secondary. People talk about how great their secondary was.

662
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson passed all over them. Ben Roethlisberger just passed

663
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 1: all over them. I love this matchup for Derek Carr,

664
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 1: so a little bit of I think people are just

665
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: down on this Las Vegas team right now, where I'm

666
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 1: still at the same point I was when we started

667
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: the year. I think they're above average team. All right, Well,

668
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: we're gonna put in the contest and it's gonna be

669
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 1: ugly and it's gonna cause me to go clean the

670
00:34:53,920 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: kitchen at about six Eastern Sunday afternoon. U it Steelers Seahawks.

671
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 1: Oh no, actually that's not one of the games on

672
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,959
Speaker 1: our list. Um the last one I want to talk about. Uh,

673
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: you gotta talk about Titans Bills because it was a

674
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: sharp call you'r you might have been turned around. Interesting

675
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:19,439
Speaker 1: one Bills road favorite, getting of the tickets you wanted

676
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 1: to be on the Bills Here your anti Titans all

677
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,720
Speaker 1: season long. A lot of signals that prove you're correct

678
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: from the Titans point of view. Um, but they're also

679
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 1: a team that plays to the level of their opponent,

680
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: so the fact they're at home, it's a relatively big number.

681
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 1: All the sentiment on the Bills, I agree with what

682
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: your sharp buddies are saying. You gotta go with the Titans. Yeah,

683
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 1: I think they're looking at for a matchup standpoint that

684
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 1: the Titans are the same kind of makeup as the

685
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: Bill is. They're big, big d line, big offensive line

686
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 1: that like the bully teams around. But I, like I

687
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 1: told the professionals, I just think that they're sleeping on

688
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 1: Josh Allen in prime time and in these kind of

689
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: match ups where he's just been covering and dominating teams

690
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: and he's kind of set up. So if you take

691
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 1: away the playoffs last year, I think they had seven

692
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: straight covers. They didn't cover obviously week went against Pittsburgh,

693
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,439
Speaker 1: and now they're four straight covers. So I'm I'm gonna

694
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 1: be riding this Bills team. I'm all in on them.

695
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 1: I think this line should be six six and a half.

696
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: It's still five and a half. Happy to take that

697
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: number at this point, so I will be having the

698
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: Bills and a lot of teasers and I will be

699
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 1: losing a lot of money if you are right, and

700
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: that the Tennessee team can upset them. But usually the

701
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,479
Speaker 1: positions primetime games, I like to take the home team.

702
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: But there's certain teams that break these rules. I think

703
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 1: the Bills will be that team this year. They're just

704
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 1: gonna break a lot of these rules. So nothing that

705
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 1: the year wise guys on the other side said convinces

706
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: you that the Titans on the right side, it just

707
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: made you feel like they are less, that the Bills

708
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: are less of a team that are not the team

709
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 1: that we want to put into one of our five

710
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: favorite right Like I felt good at five and a

711
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 1: half because I had this game at six, but because

712
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: after talking to that and them saying they think it

713
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: should be four or three and a half, I'm just

714
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 1: gonna tease it. I'll leave it out of our contest.

715
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to get better at. Where I'm

716
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 1: just gonna stick games in where i think I'm getting

717
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 1: the best number. Um, I need to listen to my

718
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 1: old heads, the guys who've been around, They've seen these

719
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: things a million times, and they just they just know

720
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 1: they like, they don't run some computer system. They're just

721
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: going off pure instinct and how they've just watched the

722
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: game over all these years. So if they're telling me

723
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: that I'm I'm overthinking, I'm not taking out a bad number,

724
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: I gotta listen to them. So, yeah, I'll be teasing

725
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: this down, but I won't be taking at five and

726
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 1: a half. All right, then, then this is sort of

727
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: our lineup right now. Eagles plus six and a half.

728
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 1: We're in the Hornets nest. We're going against Tom Brady

729
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 1: in a prime time matchup because because why wouldn't you

730
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 1: want to do that with real money at stake? We

731
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: love the Browns. We are thinking that we're gonna be

732
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:59,720
Speaker 1: on the Raiders. So that's three. We're liking the Bears, Bears,

733
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 1: Bears have to be in there. Four and a half

734
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,760
Speaker 1: we're on. We're on the Bears at four and a half.

735
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: That's four games Eagles, Brown's, Raiders, Bears, and then I

736
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: think we're gonna choose on Sunday like Lions, Texans or

737
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: somebody else. Yeah, Washington, like that's what we're gonna be

738
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 1: talking about it, Like we already talked about the lines

739
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 1: that just feels too easy. That's the only one that

740
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 1: really scares me because that feels like the easiest bet

741
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: of this week where that was an incredible number they

742
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 1: gave was at three and a half. And it's if

743
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 1: it's three, if it's just three in our our pickpul

744
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 1: or contests wherever we're doing, Yeah, I'll stay away from it,

745
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: but it's it will be hard not to take lines

746
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 1: at three and a half if that's the number. All right. Uh,

747
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: if we're going to do a round robin money line parlay,

748
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: who are our teams? So I'm gonna do Thursday Night special.

749
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: I'll have the Eagles in there, even though I really

750
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: had zero faith in this team to win, but I

751
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:05,760
Speaker 1: do love them to cover Detroit Washington. Uh again, Caroline

752
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 1: is two shorts. We don't have to put that one in. Um,

753
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: put the lines in there, and then I like capping

754
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 1: off of the Raiders just because I would love to

755
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,919
Speaker 1: have New England in there. I just can't see them

756
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 1: winning it. I just I can't have faith in a

757
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback like that to close this game out against

758
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: DAC that has just been playing too well this year.

759
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: So it's maybe come Sunday, I'll throw one out there

760
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 1: with the with New England in there. As we sit

761
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 1: here Thursday, I don't have any money line ties to

762
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 1: this New England, but very good Colts cults for our

763
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 1: Survivor and Chad also likes Pittsburgh. So if you lose

764
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh Survivor, please leave me alone Yellow Chat Listen.

765
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 1: I haven't decided if I'm going with it. I like

766
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 1: to play though the Steelers, like if I end up

767
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 1: choosing to it will be those two teams. And then

768
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: I'm debating if I want the Steelers of the Colts.

769
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 1: I'm really just thinking about down the line. Do I

770
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: have better chances to use the Colts later in the

771
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: year than the Steelers. Yeah, like you'll have a chance

772
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: using against the Texans again and the Jaguars like that.

773
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 1: I get why you're you're weighing that in. I just

774
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 1: cannot trust Pitsburgh, especially after a win. By the way,

775
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: your favorite person, Travis Reid, who does our Survivor column

776
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: every week, Uh, I think he has both the Colts

777
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 1: and the Steelers as two of the best teams to

778
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 1: take this week. Yeah, that was just two favorites. He said,

779
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: Stay away um, stay away from the Rams, I believe,

780
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 1: because he thinks that's gonna be the most like publicly

781
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: done one this week, the Rams against the Giants on

782
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 1: the road. He's like me, he's excused towards home teams

783
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 1: with these. I think we covered it all, my friend.

784
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 1: We narrowed down our games. We did a money line

785
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 1: run Robin Parlay, we got a survivor, we got our

786
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 1: hornets nest. We're gonna do disgusting things. We're gonna ask

787
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: a lot of people. We're gonna ask for their faith.

788
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 1: We're gonna ask for their patients. We're gonna ask for

789
00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: their understanding. Will probably end up asking for their forgiveness,

790
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: and we'll ask them to come back to listen to

791
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 1: the Favorites on the Volume podcast Network on Tuesday. We're

792
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: going to ask them to download the podcast from Apple Podcasts,

793
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever they get their podcasts. Until next time,

794
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: Love you,