1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:03,520 Speaker 1: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank. 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring, 3 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: and sure they definitely can be, but understanding of professionals 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little, 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank. 6 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: It might seem boring to save, plan and make calculated 7 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,479 Speaker 1: decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is 8 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P 9 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: and C Bank Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly 10 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: Boring since eighteen sixty five is a service mark of 11 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. P and C Bank 12 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: National Association Member FDIC. 13 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 2: Is everything overvalued? And why is everything falling? 14 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 3: Things are falling because they're coming back to the prices 15 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 3: what they should be. I'll get into it later, but 16 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 3: this is going to be the third year that we 17 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 3: had more than twenty percent return in the market, three 18 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 3: years in a row. Shotty, you brought this up last year, right. 19 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 3: The last time that happened was in the dot com era. 20 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 2: Ninety eight ninety nine. Two thousand people are front. 21 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 3: Running the games because they know a corrective measure will 22 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 3: be taken sometime next year, in twenty twenty eight. This 23 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 3: is why Sam is trying to clean up his image 24 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 3: and his kerfuffle that he had last. 25 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: Week with Brad Gersner. 26 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 3: So that IPO adds it will be okay. But there's 27 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:43,639 Speaker 3: been a lot of overvaluation and over hyped talk about 28 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 3: AI because everyone is trying to squeeze in the games 29 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 3: they need in to get them through the next two 30 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 3: or three years for the downturn that we're going to have, So. 31 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 2: All we overvalue. 32 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 3: Yes, we'll talk about Peter Till and the video and 33 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 3: all in the second but the market is run up 34 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 3: a lot and it's just correcting to where it should be, 35 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 3: and people are panicking. And most people are panicking because 36 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 3: they bought at levels where they shouldn't be buying Bitcoin 37 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 3: and video, Oracle, Oscar health, everything was bought at two 38 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 3: high a price. Palenteer as well. And when the front 39 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 3: running ends, people begin to take profits. And as Rashot, 40 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 3: I love when you always say there's nothing wrong with 41 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 3: taking profit. But when you see Buffetts start to ease 42 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 3: into Google for the first time in history on the exit, 43 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 3: Apple and Google are going to be the new bonds. 44 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 3: Apple is projected to give twenty six to thirty percent 45 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,679 Speaker 3: return over the next five years. It's five to six 46 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 3: percent a year. That's the new bond market. It's a 47 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 3: haven of safety. The market will ultimately be okay. 48 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 2: But some of these valuations are absolutely insane and I 49 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 2: for the price. 50 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I agree. I think yes, some of these companies. 51 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: I see somebody in the chat put Palenteer in terms 52 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: of valuations and just I mean it is. It has 53 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: run to a place where it almost feels uncomfortable. I 54 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: think that the issue is that earnings has kept pace 55 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: with this type of growth and at some point that 56 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: has to decelerate. 57 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 4: Right, Like we we'll. 58 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: Talk about this more in the show when we as 59 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 1: we're looking forward to to Wednesday, Like when the market 60 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: is priced to perfection, right, perfection. 61 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 2: Won't be good enough. 62 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: Right, So even you know there's good life that's going 63 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: to report and how it can shift the market if 64 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: it does well and it has future, God, it still might. 65 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 2: Not be enough. 66 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: It still might not be enough, and that they will 67 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: be dominant and the companies that are around it the 68 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 1: metas of the world. And I know everybody is like, 69 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: what about Meta? The Metas will be fine. Microsoft will 70 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: be fine, Apple will be fine. But there will be 71 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: some others that the rest of you. Here's a safeway 72 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: to put it right. If invidious sneezes, some companies will 73 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: have pneumonia. 74 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 2: Y'all will have COVID two point zero. 75 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: COVID twenty right, Like in that type of scenario, In 76 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 1: these type of markets, when all indicators are pointing to 77 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 1: all time highs and you look at the cytixus and 78 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: everybody keeps bringing up the dot com bubble, I don't 79 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: think a crash is imminent, but I will say the 80 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: valuations have gone up pretty substantially to a point where 81 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: it's like, all right, we need to take a deeper 82 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: look at it. 83 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 4: But we'll see. 84 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: I mean, we thought something like this could happen this year, 85 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 1: right when we're talking about can earnings keep up to 86 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: the valuations? It happened in twenty four, right, which is 87 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: why we were over twenty percent. It's happening here and 88 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: we're pacing toward another twenty percent year. We'll see what 89 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: happens in the first core of twenty six. And that's 90 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 1: why Wednesdays so important when you're talking about in video 91 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: You're not just talking about a You're talking about infrastructure, 92 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: you're talking about cloud, talking about a lot of different sectors. 93 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: What that future guidance looks like into Q one Q 94 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: two of twenty twenty six will be very very important 95 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: to see how this next year is gonna go. 96 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:17,840 Speaker 3: This reminds me of the first year shot to Kyrie. 97 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 3: He hit the shot of his step right cool. You 98 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 3: can only go into the game winning back so often. 99 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 3: So I think in video will do well in earnings. 100 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 3: But if the entire market is relying upon blockbuster earnings 101 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 3: for one company for equal way to S and P 102 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 3: funds to do well. 103 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 2: That's not good. Have we seen this before? 104 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 3: Yep, twenty twenty two dot com era, we've seen this 105 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 3: a couple of times, even the Max seven. 106 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 4: Exactly because it feels like four years ago we were 107 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 4: just to Apple. I was he just took the words 108 00:05:58,320 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 4: right out of my mouth. 109 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: I was like, this is how we used to talk 110 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 1: about Apple, Like Apple fights for us, and we needed 111 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: to beat earnings and it's so dominant, we needed to 112 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: do that. And even if it's great, it's not great enough. 113 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: And now people talk rotation and it's just another Max 114 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: seven that's now rotated into that spot. Now it's in video. 115 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: And even when when when TiAl says that he's selling 116 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: out his positions, he didn't just leave the Max seven out. 117 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: He said, we're gonna parking in to other Max sevens. Yeah, 118 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: you know what I mean. And so it's just interesting 119 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 1: to see. 120 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 4: I think it. 121 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: Like I said, I think we both are in agree 122 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 1: and stand in the video is going to have a 123 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: great quarter, and Dentss kind of got ahead of it, 124 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,719 Speaker 1: hasn't he Right, He said, look, we're talking about we're 125 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: talking about five hundred billion. 126 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 4: This is these are not numbers to sneeze that. 127 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 3: He wanted to say, I'm not there, Like, yo, don't 128 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 3: don't get this, don't put. 129 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: The category as other little crim Yeah, we are not 130 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 1: the same. 131 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 4: Five hundred billion is is different. 132 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: That's more than the market cap of market cap of 133 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 1: the I think everything outside of the top thirty companies in. 134 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 4: The world, this is not the same. 135 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 3: We got to have an honest conversation though, like there 136 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 3: shouldn't be this much in videos. 137 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 2: My pick my baby, I love it. 138 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 3: The entire US economy and stock market cannot be relying 139 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 3: upon one company to deliver blockbuster returns to move up 140 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 3: the GDP and defeat China. There was Apple four years ago, 141 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 3: and even that stress didn't allow Tim Cook to create 142 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 3: what he needed to create fast enough because he had 143 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 3: to wait the world on the shoulders. Mistakes get made 144 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 3: when not only are you leading HQ looking over product line, 145 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 3: but then you have the president saying, hey, I really 146 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 3: need you to hit a home run right now for me. 147 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 2: It's too much pressure. 148 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 4: Can they deliver? 149 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: I mean, would you rather have any other company be 150 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: in this position? I feel like this is a company 151 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: that if there was one that was primed to be 152 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: in this position, this is it. The fact that they're 153 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: doing this and they don't have China right like, they 154 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: don't have that market, which would be part of this. 155 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: We'll see a full year of Blackwell coming up. Yeah, 156 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: we understand the dominance. We watched all the other hyperscalers 157 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: and the Max seven's report before them, which is very 158 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: strategic on their part. I looked at the numbers, bro 159 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: everybody's cappecs did not go down. Everybody's CAPEX went up, 160 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 1: which talks about the demand and we know where they're shopping. 161 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 4: And so if there was going to be a company 162 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 4: it would be this one and video. 163 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 3: Will be fine, Metal will be fine, Microsoft will be fine, 164 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 3: Google Dynasty of an ecosystem, votrying right build community. But 165 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 3: the rest of the market, I'm like, even if we 166 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 3: look at quantum and this is not my moment to say, hey, 167 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 3: to beat up on these stocks. R QQ is down 168 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 3: forty three percent, IONQ is down thirty nine percent, QMCD 169 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 3: is down forty percent, RGTI is down forty six percent. 170 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 3: I'm looking at the rest of the market start to 171 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 3: pull back twenty to twenty five percent for some quality companies. 172 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 2: That's not a good sign. Erners, what's up? 173 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 1: You ever walk into a small business and everything just 174 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: works like the checkout is fast, their seats are digital, 175 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: tipping is a breeze, and you're out the door before 176 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:24,440 Speaker 1: the line even builds. Odds are they're using Square. 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