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Speaker 2: I want to start John with the AMD. That stock.
Speaker 3: That story really got my attentions down sixteen and a
Speaker 3: half percent today. I mean, this was one of the
Speaker 3: Darling tech stocks, the chip names that we're really writing
Speaker 3: the AI wave here, and it's at its worst day
Speaker 3: since twenty seventeen. Stocks up seventy percent over the trailing
Speaker 3: twelve months, but taking a.
Speaker 2: Big hit today.
Speaker 3: So let's figure out what's going on in that part
Speaker 3: of the world. Kun John Sabanni joins US senior analyst
Speaker 3: covering the semiconductor companies Bloomberg Intelligency's based on our Los
Speaker 3: Angeles OFFICEO John, is this an Norman reaction for AMD?
Speaker 3: Is there something fundamentally problematic there?
Speaker 4: There was nothing fundamentally wrong in this report.
Speaker 5: There were a lot of good things to take away,
Speaker 5: but it comes down to you know, when you become
Speaker 5: an ar Darling, you set up really, really high expectations,
Speaker 5: and when you take out the China revenue, which was
Speaker 5: not included in the guidance and the expectations, the beat
Speaker 5: came out pretty modest, which I guess people didn't like,
Speaker 5: and then was not at power against the really high
Speaker 5: expectations that you have now every quarter from these companies.
Speaker 6: Like they used to ask in the old Westerns, you know,
Speaker 6: is there room enough for the two of us in
Speaker 6: this town?
Speaker 5: Is there room enough for them? And in Nvidia there
Speaker 5: is right now. I mean, look, all the tide is
Speaker 5: lifting all boats. There is so much demand for accelator
Speaker 5: chips that there's room for AMD as a GPU provider.
Speaker 5: There's even room for other folks like Broadcommon Marvell as
Speaker 5: an AC provider.
Speaker 4: So there's a plenty of demand right now. You know.
Speaker 3: I used to work for a portfolio manager and you know,
Speaker 3: one of our native I was recommending AMD and it
Speaker 3: had a day like today. He would just pop ahead
Speaker 3: and said, do we like management? Do we still like management?
Speaker 3: And if the answer was yes, oftentimes you'd go out
Speaker 3: and buy more on days like today?
Speaker 2: Do we like management?
Speaker 4: At least?
Speaker 3: As Sue, I think is just when I just see
Speaker 3: your interviews, it seems super on top of it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, like I said, fundamentally, nothing changed from yesterday.
Speaker 5: Right Their CPU story continues to become stronger. Nobody's paying
Speaker 5: attention to do it right now because all the focuses
Speaker 5: on GPU and competing with Nvidia, But people are forgetting
Speaker 5: inherently I when you look at two years back, this
Speaker 5: was really a CPU company. Their GPU storyline remains intact.
Speaker 5: We didn't expect any fireworks coming into this earnings. We
Speaker 5: don't expect it until really four Q twenty twenty six,
Speaker 5: so the market is aware of this. We really have
Speaker 5: to wait until the four Q twenty twenty six. This
Speaker 5: is when they will be really put to tests if
Speaker 5: they can really execute their first server level.
Speaker 4: Solution or not.
Speaker 5: So there's nothing changed overnight yesterday that we saw should
Speaker 5: really concern us.
Speaker 6: How important is China in all this? I thought the
Speaker 6: expert restrictions were lifted. I mean, what's what's taking some on?
Speaker 5: Well, so the expert restrictions are different for each chip.
Speaker 5: So the MI three to eight which they were able
Speaker 5: to ship, had already licenses approved prior, so that's a
Speaker 5: different chip. The newer chips that now is in the
Speaker 5: news when it comes to in media, is that aged
Speaker 5: two hundreds and equivalent, it will be the MI three
Speaker 5: twenty five licenses for those have not.
Speaker 4: Been granted yet.
Speaker 5: Even though the White House has said that yes, these
Speaker 5: companies can start shipping these products, yet the formal licenses
Speaker 5: have not been granted.
Speaker 3: Cou John some M and A in your space today,
Speaker 3: Texas Instruments has reach an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories
Speaker 3: for about seven point five billion dollars. Here what's going
Speaker 3: on here with TI.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so just to give some context, this is sort
Speaker 5: of this size of the deal they have not done
Speaker 5: in the past. The last time they did a deal
Speaker 5: like this was buying National for about seven billion dollars
Speaker 5: in twenty eleven. So this is not their typical nature,
Speaker 5: so a bit of a surprise. Strategically, it fits well
Speaker 5: their industrial segment, which is their largest segment, and that's
Speaker 5: where they want to be focused as a missing piece
Speaker 5: when it comes to wireless connectivity in IoT, so Silicon
Speaker 5: Lab gives them that portfolio. Financially, however, it's a lot
Speaker 5: more important. They have retreated that this has not changed
Speaker 5: their pre cash foot trajectory. This has not changed their
Speaker 5: dividend path and this does not increase. The most important
Speaker 5: thing is the capex, so all those things we really like,
Speaker 5: if they're able to execute to that yet the cost energies,
Speaker 5: then this will be a really good deal for them. Also,
Speaker 5: remember TI has been on a spending spree for the
Speaker 5: last three to five years building up a lot of capacity,
Speaker 5: so this will help bring more loading to their internal factories,
Speaker 5: bring more manufacturing internal to own TI, and help with utilization.
Speaker 6: You know, one of the things we saw in the
Speaker 6: cell off today and yesterday was this capex spending when
Speaker 6: it's all going to be paying off investors getting a
Speaker 6: little impatient with everything. Is it all paying off immediately
Speaker 6: or in the near future for all these firms?
Speaker 5: Well, so there's two preci of CAPEC spending, right, The
Speaker 5: one I think you're referring to is.
Speaker 6: The high AI for everybody.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's it's the jury is not out yet, right,
Speaker 5: We still need to see monetization. The capex spending is
Speaker 5: not done yet, so we still need to see a
Speaker 5: lot more proof points of monetization from all of this
Speaker 5: AI hyperscale infrastructure spending that's been going on.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 7: Let's bring in Sam Fazzelli. Bring back Sam Fazzelli. Really,
Speaker 7: he's our Bloomberg Intelligence drug boss. That's the jacket he
Speaker 7: wore yesterday. Actually he's the director of research for Global
Speaker 7: Industries and our senior pharmaceuticals analyst. But Sam here a
Speaker 7: drug boss.
Speaker 2: Let's face it.
Speaker 7: Let's talk a little bit about Eli Lilly and its
Speaker 7: upbeat guidance in contrast to Novo Nordisk. Why is there
Speaker 7: such a stark difference between what Lily is seeing and
Speaker 7: what Novo Nordisk is seeing?
Speaker 4: Right, So, Scarlett, I've always maintained, based on data and
Speaker 4: based on factual comparisons of the drugs that they have,
Speaker 4: that Eli Lily's drug does better the weight loss over
Speaker 4: a serious past a period of time. Then we go
Speaker 4: they didn't head to a trial, so that I think
Speaker 4: is helping them. They are both in the same camp
Speaker 4: in terms of price pressure as Novo, as Lily has said,
Speaker 4: they have several areas where there's price pressure on them. Right. Nevertheless,
Speaker 4: they seem to be at this forecasting a meaningful volume
Speaker 4: gain in twenty twenty six, which you would want to
Speaker 4: see if you've got a price drop. That's the whole idea,
Speaker 4: and we've talked about this right from the beginning of
Speaker 4: this obesity run. That is, if prices come down, volume
Speaker 4: should go up. Nobo seems to be not doing that.
Speaker 4: And there's two ways to explain that. One is Loah's
Speaker 4: thinking and is worried about losing market share so not
Speaker 4: gaining as much volume. Two is that Novah's being over
Speaker 4: pessimistic to deliver. I have a tough time choosing between
Speaker 4: those two. Those two decisions tells you whether you buy
Speaker 4: the stock or not.
Speaker 3: Right Sam, you know, Lily Novo, they're kind of in
Speaker 3: strong positions in this weight loss area. Here talk to
Speaker 3: us about the competitive threat from some of these telehealth
Speaker 3: companies selling cheaper copycat versions.
Speaker 2: Where where is that right now?
Speaker 4: Yeah? But that shouldn't be It should be nowhere in
Speaker 4: the right now because that's illegal. Right at the end
Speaker 4: of the day, this is a patented product and there
Speaker 4: should be no compounding going on. I then buying the
Speaker 4: active ingredient and mashing it up and put it in
Speaker 4: a capsule or whatever and their injector and doing it themselves.
Speaker 4: That should be not allowed, although there's clearly some of
Speaker 4: that's still going on, and I don't know where the
Speaker 4: FDA's teeth is on this because they were allowed to
Speaker 4: do it well. There was a volume, a shortage of supply,
Speaker 4: but there's no more shortage of supply, So what is
Speaker 4: still happening that is not I think what people are
Speaker 4: particularly worried about, or exercising people's mind, is what will
Speaker 4: happen in the longer run between the oral drugs that
Speaker 4: then soon in Q two Lily is going to bring
Speaker 4: versus the well launched nice start to the launch of
Speaker 4: the we go vi oral pill. And then the next
Speaker 4: question is what about other people who are coming with
Speaker 4: other GLP ones and slightly different here once monthly from
Speaker 4: fivez era et cetera, et cetera. And I think that
Speaker 4: we will see how those guys are going to be
Speaker 4: able to compete. It's going to be tough. Is a
Speaker 4: machine that's run by both Lily particularly and Novo two.
Speaker 7: Yeah, you're talking about this weight loss pedal that Lily
Speaker 7: wants to launch. It could happen or the approval, I
Speaker 7: should say, could happen as early as April. Lily did
Speaker 7: just get approval from the FDA SAM to sell zet
Speaker 7: bound in a multi dose pen. Why is this format important?
Speaker 7: Is it because it's more lucrative? Does it make it
Speaker 7: more accessible?
Speaker 4: Like?
Speaker 7: What does that multi dose pen allow Lily to do?
Speaker 4: Here? Well, let's although I know we don't talk about
Speaker 4: sustainable stuff anymore, this is more sustainable rather throwing out
Speaker 4: the pen every time, right, So that's that's nice. And
Speaker 4: number two is therefore that should mean depending on how
Speaker 4: complicated it is to have a multi dose pen, the
Speaker 4: origin is a bit better because you're not throwing out
Speaker 4: the pen every time and they don't have to keep
Speaker 4: making a pen. So all of these are our elements.
Speaker 4: And you know, it's not rocket science that they've done it.
Speaker 4: It's just that you have to also be careful. This
Speaker 4: is an active drug. You need to make sure that
Speaker 4: it's well stored, so it's not sitting in the sunshine
Speaker 4: or frozen outside. That's the sort of thing you have
Speaker 4: to think about when you have a molted those device.
Speaker 4: But I think this would be helpful to both people
Speaker 4: users and the karma companies.
Speaker 2: Sam.
Speaker 3: We all know that President Trump has made cutting drug
Speaker 3: costs a key priority, and a lot of drugmakers have
Speaker 3: cut deals with this administration. Has it resulted in profits
Speaker 3: reductions out there for a lot of these companies are
Speaker 3: annalys taking their numbers down.
Speaker 4: Well, if you go with Noble ICs announcement today that
Speaker 4: specifically calls this out price pressure, then yes, the only
Speaker 4: thing is that they need that price pressure to exist. Really,
Speaker 4: so how come they're not covering? So I think the
Speaker 4: Novo story is more than just the price pressure. It's
Speaker 4: also that they're potentially, as we talked about earlier, losing
Speaker 4: volume going forward, or that they're being over pessimistic. There's
Speaker 4: a couple of other companies like today no artists mentioned
Speaker 4: MFN pricing for some of theirs that will be it,
Speaker 4: I don't think it's as think it hits as Novo's
Speaker 4: talking about. If you look at the share price too
Speaker 4: for twenty twenty six, it sounds like they're going to
Speaker 4: pretty much manage it. But they have pulled it out
Speaker 4: until these companies that don't pulled it out at all
Speaker 4: stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about some technology earnings. Here, we
Speaker 3: get super Micro delivers I guess better than expected sales
Speaker 3: forecast in the quarter we had HP. They maintained their guidance.
Speaker 2: Here their CEO left. I don't know what's going on there.
Speaker 2: Let's talk to Wujinho. He doesn't know what's going on.
Speaker 3: There, Senior technology anels from Bloomerg Intelligence. Hey, well, let's
Speaker 3: talk about Hewlett Packer here HP. I guess they kept
Speaker 3: their guidance. But the CEO departure was Is that unexpected?
Speaker 8: Yeah, hey Paul, Yeah, that was highly unexpected. You know, Enrique,
Speaker 8: the CEO was a lifer, started there as an intern,
Speaker 8: and jumping over to PayPal was a surprise to us.
Speaker 8: And he's leaving me at a precarious time because he
Speaker 8: was tasked to navigate the PC business when dram prices
Speaker 8: are spiking, which and then quite frankly, I did find
Speaker 8: it positive that they did maintain their guidance for the year.
Speaker 7: Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about those DRAM
Speaker 7: prices spiking, because this is something that people really zer
Speaker 7: it in on when it came to Apple's results as well.
Speaker 7: How big a cost is these rising prices of memory
Speaker 7: chips for a PC company like HP.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so if we think about the total build up
Speaker 8: of materials d RAM as well as the storage that
Speaker 8: goes in there, it's roughly it went from about ten
Speaker 8: to fifteen percent of the cost, and now it's spiking
Speaker 8: up to about twenty to thirty percent of the cost. Right,
Speaker 8: So what's going to happen. They're not going to give
Speaker 8: it away a gross margin, that's for sure, because we're
Speaker 8: talking about very thin margins for the PC business, and
Speaker 8: we've already we're already hearing about PC pricing going up
Speaker 8: around twenty to thirty percent going into the later twenty
Speaker 8: twenty six. So, Scarl, if we think about it as
Speaker 8: a very elastic, elastic demand for PCs, it is going
Speaker 8: to hit possibly on the demand side, and then keep PCs.
Speaker 8: People keep keeping PCs longer.
Speaker 2: How about the print supply business. Just as a consumer.
Speaker 3: That's where I feel like I pay a lot of
Speaker 3: money when I get the print supply stuff for the
Speaker 3: HP PRI inter talk to us about that business, yeah.
Speaker 8: You know, I will tell you though. I think what's
Speaker 8: being overlooked by investors here is that the print supply
Speaker 8: business is going to be the cushion, you know, the
Speaker 8: inks that you and I pay for. That that's a
Speaker 8: nineteen percent EBIT margin business.
Speaker 2: So more than that, trust.
Speaker 8: Me in my wallet's all I light as well. I'm
Speaker 8: glad my kids are out of school so they don't
Speaker 8: print as much, but it is going to provide a cushion.
Speaker 8: Even though it is the hardware isn't secular decline, there
Speaker 8: are making some move either by subscription UH to UH
Speaker 8: to supply to provide some of that downside risk and earnings.
Speaker 7: What is the long term trend line for that print
Speaker 7: supply business, because I mean, every office is trying to
Speaker 7: go digital and not have printers available to everyone, and
Speaker 7: I know there are some parts of government that can't
Speaker 7: do without actual physical printouts of documents. But I would
Speaker 7: imagine that this shift to you know, everything being virtual
Speaker 7: and digital means that this overall is in a long
Speaker 7: term structural decline.
Speaker 8: Easy answer or the simple answer minus two percent on
Speaker 8: a year one year basis, on a long term basis, right,
Speaker 8: there's always that. Yeah, well there's always that one guy
Speaker 8: who's going to print the ten case and ten qures
Speaker 8: right and in color.
Speaker 7: So you know we're a dying Breed's that's the thing, right,
Speaker 7: I mean, the young people aren't going to do that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't do that.
Speaker 7: Really, you don't pretend anything. Oh that's true, got.
Speaker 2: It on my phone.
Speaker 8: I think the kids are the kids are going back
Speaker 8: to the old school ways of old elder folk of
Speaker 8: printing more and having more photo keepsake. So, uh, you know,
Speaker 8: I don't think it's We're talking about a structural decline
Speaker 8: of ten percent on a year on year basis, but
Speaker 8: there's enough print from a documentation, uh standpoint that is
Speaker 8: going to hold the business.
Speaker 3: How about super Micro? Here, I see the stock of
Speaker 3: fourteen percent here today. Talk to us about their earnings.
Speaker 8: I will tell you. Look, I've talked about this, you
Speaker 8: know at nausea about super Micro. The AI server business
Speaker 8: is a double edged sword.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 8: Where they won out in the last quarter print was
Speaker 8: that the AI servers demand came out a lot better
Speaker 8: than expected, roughly one point five billion beat in in sales,
Speaker 8: and that's primarily because the Blackwell ramp up is or
Speaker 8: to wrap up now, I will tell you I think
Speaker 8: one customer really helped them out. Sixty two percent of
Speaker 8: their sales was from I think from Xai. But look,
Speaker 8: the offset has always been the margin side, four point
Speaker 8: five percent in operating margin, and I think their guidance
Speaker 8: implies is going to be roughly around the same my
Speaker 8: next quarter.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up here for.
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Speaker 3: Let's stay with some earnings news here rights back in
Speaker 3: the middle of a busy, busy week for earnings young brands.
Speaker 3: I think restaurants fourth quarter just at EPs misses estimates here,
Speaker 3: So yeah, hit or missing the restaurant business is kind
Speaker 3: of what we've been seeing more recently.
Speaker 2: Jody Lori joints us here. She is a Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: credit analyst.
Speaker 3: She covers all things kind of the consumer things, cruise lines,
Speaker 3: theme parks, casinos, parts of the restaurant industry.
Speaker 2: So anywhere you.
Speaker 3: See the consumer spending money, that's where you'll find her.
Speaker 3: So let's check in with Jodi Jody. Let's start with
Speaker 3: young brands there. What are they saying about their business
Speaker 3: and the consumer.
Speaker 9: So it's very clear that they're focused on Taco Bell
Speaker 9: as well as the international component of KFC because those
Speaker 9: are what is driving revenue at the moment. They're also
Speaker 9: looking into strategic alternatives for pizza, which they announced last quarter,
Speaker 9: and they got a little bit more clarity around that
Speaker 9: in terms of closing some stores, really sort of reassessing
Speaker 9: the pizza hut business because it's not necessarily where they're
Speaker 9: seeing growth. I think what was most interesting for me
Speaker 9: is they highlighted the strength of the high income consumer
Speaker 9: as well as the young consumer and the family consumer,
Speaker 9: particularly as it went to Taco Bell. And I mean,
Speaker 9: for me personally, I like to consider myself young, but
Speaker 9: I do fit the family category and I fit the
Speaker 9: you know, higher income category, I would say, and that
Speaker 9: definitely checks out. You know, I think there is an
Speaker 9: appeal to a company like that particularly as you're looking
Speaker 9: at alternatives.
Speaker 3: Yeah, during the snowstorm when I was kind of socked
Speaker 3: in here, I found the Taco bell on Third Avenue.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, Lexington Avenue. Very good finded. Did not did
Speaker 3: not know it was there. So I'm in good shape there.
Speaker 3: From the credit perspective, Jody, to credit investors, like when
Speaker 3: they look at these restaurant companies that they want to see,
Speaker 3: I guess a diversification of brands, you know, through the
Speaker 3: income level.
Speaker 2: How do they how did they look at it?
Speaker 9: So you do want to see some diversification. You want
Speaker 9: to see some geographic diversication. Something that young It benefits
Speaker 9: from is because they have the franchise model so heavily
Speaker 9: in their business, it's almost all of their their restaurants.
Speaker 9: It helps them from a cash flow and from margin perspective,
Speaker 9: particularly as compared to companies that have more owned brands
Speaker 9: such as Darden. Right, Darden is going into franchise, but
Speaker 9: they're primarily owned brands, and so it's a little bit
Speaker 9: different structure and it does help Young Now. I think
Speaker 9: what's so interesting interesting about youm is if you look
Speaker 9: back ten years ago, they were investment grade rated. Then
Speaker 9: they spun off on China, and then they decided to
Speaker 9: give themselves hefty dividends and share buybacks and stayed high yield.
Speaker 9: Since management is very clear that they're happy with the
Speaker 9: four times debt leverage, they're keeping within that range and
Speaker 9: I don't really see them moving beyond that. But if
Speaker 9: they wanted to be investment grade, I think they could.
Speaker 9: They just don't care too because they'd rather spend their
Speaker 9: money on shareholders and on KPEX.
Speaker 3: Hey, Drea, I thought of you earlier this week when
Speaker 3: we saw the news that Josh Tomorrow has been appointed
Speaker 3: chief executive officer of the Walt Disney Company, and of
Speaker 3: course he runs the experiences businesses for Disney.
Speaker 2: I think the theme parks, the cruise.
Speaker 3: Ships kind of the businesses.
Speaker 2: That you tend to follow here.
Speaker 3: But boy, they seem to be all in on theme parks,
Speaker 3: on cruise ships, that scene. I kind of took it
Speaker 3: as a vote conference for that part of the industry.
Speaker 4: Absolutely.
Speaker 9: I mean, you know, we're seeing in our data that
Speaker 9: experience spending is still very very strong. I've joked many
Speaker 9: times with Steve Flynn, who covers Disney from a credit perspective,
Speaker 9: that really it should be under my coverage because they're
Speaker 9: much more of an experienced company, and I think this
Speaker 9: lands right. But all that aside, you know, Steve's fantastic analyst,
Speaker 9: and you all should read and stuff. But all that aside,
Speaker 9: I would say that that what's so interesting, and something
Speaker 9: that I've said many times when people talk to me
Speaker 9: about the cruise lines, for example, they say, Okay, you know,
Speaker 9: I see that occupancy levels are you know, one O
Speaker 9: eight or one o nine? What does that mean? One
Speaker 9: hundred and nine percent, right, And that means that the
Speaker 9: average room occupies two people per room, and if you
Speaker 9: have more than that, then that is obviously above one
Speaker 9: hundred percent. That's how you get that weird one O
Speaker 9: nine one o eight number. But when you look at Disney,
Speaker 9: obviously they don't give that detail. And I've made comments
Speaker 9: to the effect that I do I am curious what
Speaker 9: their occupancy level is because if you've ever been on
Speaker 9: a Disney cruise, I don't think there's any room that
Speaker 9: is fewer than three people in it. I'd be very
Speaker 9: shocked to see so their occupancy rates are so much higher.
Speaker 9: It makes sense why they're expanding their ship presence in
Speaker 9: the water. You know, increasing the number of ships in
Speaker 9: the water. It also makes sense why they're expanding in
Speaker 9: terms of travel beyond the US, because I think that
Speaker 9: with the trend we're seeing is that international travel demand
Speaker 9: is there, and it also helps to sort of diversify
Speaker 9: them away from any sort of pressures in Florida or California,
Speaker 9: where we've seen quite a lot of weird patterns that
Speaker 9: SeaWorld has commented on. Six Flig has commented on so
Speaker 9: that that geographic diversification could be helpful.
Speaker 3: Well, I booked my first cruise ever for next I
Speaker 3: guess October Viking cruise, going river cruise.
Speaker 7: That's the one cuds right, that's so I'll no kids.
Speaker 9: In big print on the shampoo is.
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