1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 2: I want to start John with the AMD. That stock. 7 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 3: That story really got my attentions down sixteen and a 8 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 3: half percent today. I mean, this was one of the 9 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 3: Darling tech stocks, the chip names that we're really writing 10 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 3: the AI wave here, and it's at its worst day 11 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 3: since twenty seventeen. Stocks up seventy percent over the trailing 12 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:40,879 Speaker 3: twelve months, but taking a. 13 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: Big hit today. 14 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 3: So let's figure out what's going on in that part 15 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 3: of the world. Kun John Sabanni joins US senior analyst 16 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 3: covering the semiconductor companies Bloomberg Intelligency's based on our Los 17 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 3: Angeles OFFICEO John, is this an Norman reaction for AMD? 18 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 3: Is there something fundamentally problematic there? 19 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 4: There was nothing fundamentally wrong in this report. 20 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 5: There were a lot of good things to take away, 21 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 5: but it comes down to you know, when you become 22 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 5: an ar Darling, you set up really, really high expectations, 23 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 5: and when you take out the China revenue, which was 24 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 5: not included in the guidance and the expectations, the beat 25 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 5: came out pretty modest, which I guess people didn't like, 26 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 5: and then was not at power against the really high 27 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 5: expectations that you have now every quarter from these companies. 28 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 6: Like they used to ask in the old Westerns, you know, 29 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 6: is there room enough for the two of us in 30 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 6: this town? 31 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 5: Is there room enough for them? And in Nvidia there 32 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 5: is right now. I mean, look, all the tide is 33 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 5: lifting all boats. There is so much demand for accelator 34 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 5: chips that there's room for AMD as a GPU provider. 35 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 5: There's even room for other folks like Broadcommon Marvell as 36 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 5: an AC provider. 37 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 4: So there's a plenty of demand right now. You know. 38 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 3: I used to work for a portfolio manager and you know, 39 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 3: one of our native I was recommending AMD and it 40 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 3: had a day like today. He would just pop ahead 41 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 3: and said, do we like management? Do we still like management? 42 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 3: And if the answer was yes, oftentimes you'd go out 43 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 3: and buy more on days like today? 44 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: Do we like management? 45 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 4: At least? 46 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 3: As Sue, I think is just when I just see 47 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 3: your interviews, it seems super on top of it. 48 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, like I said, fundamentally, nothing changed from yesterday. 49 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 5: Right Their CPU story continues to become stronger. Nobody's paying 50 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 5: attention to do it right now because all the focuses 51 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 5: on GPU and competing with Nvidia, But people are forgetting 52 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 5: inherently I when you look at two years back, this 53 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 5: was really a CPU company. Their GPU storyline remains intact. 54 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 5: We didn't expect any fireworks coming into this earnings. We 55 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,839 Speaker 5: don't expect it until really four Q twenty twenty six, 56 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 5: so the market is aware of this. We really have 57 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 5: to wait until the four Q twenty twenty six. This 58 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 5: is when they will be really put to tests if 59 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 5: they can really execute their first server level. 60 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 4: Solution or not. 61 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 5: So there's nothing changed overnight yesterday that we saw should 62 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 5: really concern us. 63 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 6: How important is China in all this? I thought the 64 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 6: expert restrictions were lifted. I mean, what's what's taking some on? 65 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 5: Well, so the expert restrictions are different for each chip. 66 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 5: So the MI three to eight which they were able 67 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 5: to ship, had already licenses approved prior, so that's a 68 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 5: different chip. The newer chips that now is in the 69 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 5: news when it comes to in media, is that aged 70 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 5: two hundreds and equivalent, it will be the MI three 71 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 5: twenty five licenses for those have not. 72 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 4: Been granted yet. 73 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 5: Even though the White House has said that yes, these 74 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 5: companies can start shipping these products, yet the formal licenses 75 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 5: have not been granted. 76 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 3: Cou John some M and A in your space today, 77 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 3: Texas Instruments has reach an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories 78 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 3: for about seven point five billion dollars. Here what's going 79 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 3: on here with TI. 80 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, so just to give some context, this is sort 81 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 5: of this size of the deal they have not done 82 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 5: in the past. The last time they did a deal 83 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 5: like this was buying National for about seven billion dollars 84 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 5: in twenty eleven. So this is not their typical nature, 85 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 5: so a bit of a surprise. Strategically, it fits well 86 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 5: their industrial segment, which is their largest segment, and that's 87 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 5: where they want to be focused as a missing piece 88 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 5: when it comes to wireless connectivity in IoT, so Silicon 89 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 5: Lab gives them that portfolio. Financially, however, it's a lot 90 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 5: more important. They have retreated that this has not changed 91 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 5: their pre cash foot trajectory. This has not changed their 92 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 5: dividend path and this does not increase. The most important 93 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 5: thing is the capex, so all those things we really like, 94 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 5: if they're able to execute to that yet the cost energies, 95 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 5: then this will be a really good deal for them. Also, 96 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 5: remember TI has been on a spending spree for the 97 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 5: last three to five years building up a lot of capacity, 98 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 5: so this will help bring more loading to their internal factories, 99 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 5: bring more manufacturing internal to own TI, and help with utilization. 100 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 6: You know, one of the things we saw in the 101 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 6: cell off today and yesterday was this capex spending when 102 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 6: it's all going to be paying off investors getting a 103 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 6: little impatient with everything. Is it all paying off immediately 104 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 6: or in the near future for all these firms? 105 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 5: Well, so there's two preci of CAPEC spending, right, The 106 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 5: one I think you're referring to is. 107 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 6: The high AI for everybody. 108 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's it's the jury is not out yet, right, 109 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 5: We still need to see monetization. The capex spending is 110 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 5: not done yet, so we still need to see a 111 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 5: lot more proof points of monetization from all of this 112 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 5: AI hyperscale infrastructure spending that's been going on. 113 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 114 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live 115 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 116 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 117 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 118 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 7: Let's bring in Sam Fazzelli. Bring back Sam Fazzelli. Really, 119 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 7: he's our Bloomberg Intelligence drug boss. That's the jacket he 120 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 7: wore yesterday. Actually he's the director of research for Global 121 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 7: Industries and our senior pharmaceuticals analyst. But Sam here a 122 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 7: drug boss. 123 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 2: Let's face it. 124 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 7: Let's talk a little bit about Eli Lilly and its 125 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 7: upbeat guidance in contrast to Novo Nordisk. Why is there 126 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 7: such a stark difference between what Lily is seeing and 127 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 7: what Novo Nordisk is seeing? 128 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 4: Right, So, Scarlett, I've always maintained, based on data and 129 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 4: based on factual comparisons of the drugs that they have, 130 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 4: that Eli Lily's drug does better the weight loss over 131 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 4: a serious past a period of time. Then we go 132 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 4: they didn't head to a trial, so that I think 133 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,559 Speaker 4: is helping them. They are both in the same camp 134 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 4: in terms of price pressure as Novo, as Lily has said, 135 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 4: they have several areas where there's price pressure on them. Right. Nevertheless, 136 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 4: they seem to be at this forecasting a meaningful volume 137 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 4: gain in twenty twenty six, which you would want to 138 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 4: see if you've got a price drop. That's the whole idea, 139 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 4: and we've talked about this right from the beginning of 140 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 4: this obesity run. That is, if prices come down, volume 141 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 4: should go up. Nobo seems to be not doing that. 142 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 4: And there's two ways to explain that. One is Loah's 143 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 4: thinking and is worried about losing market share so not 144 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:26,559 Speaker 4: gaining as much volume. Two is that Novah's being over 145 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 4: pessimistic to deliver. I have a tough time choosing between 146 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 4: those two. Those two decisions tells you whether you buy 147 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 4: the stock or not. 148 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 3: Right Sam, you know, Lily Novo, they're kind of in 149 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 3: strong positions in this weight loss area. Here talk to 150 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 3: us about the competitive threat from some of these telehealth 151 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 3: companies selling cheaper copycat versions. 152 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 2: Where where is that right now? 153 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 4: Yeah? But that shouldn't be It should be nowhere in 154 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 4: the right now because that's illegal. Right at the end 155 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 4: of the day, this is a patented product and there 156 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 4: should be no compounding going on. I then buying the 157 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 4: active ingredient and mashing it up and put it in 158 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 4: a capsule or whatever and their injector and doing it themselves. 159 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 4: That should be not allowed, although there's clearly some of 160 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 4: that's still going on, and I don't know where the 161 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 4: FDA's teeth is on this because they were allowed to 162 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 4: do it well. There was a volume, a shortage of supply, 163 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 4: but there's no more shortage of supply, So what is 164 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 4: still happening that is not I think what people are 165 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 4: particularly worried about, or exercising people's mind, is what will 166 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 4: happen in the longer run between the oral drugs that 167 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 4: then soon in Q two Lily is going to bring 168 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 4: versus the well launched nice start to the launch of 169 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 4: the we go vi oral pill. And then the next 170 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 4: question is what about other people who are coming with 171 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 4: other GLP ones and slightly different here once monthly from 172 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 4: fivez era et cetera, et cetera. And I think that 173 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 4: we will see how those guys are going to be 174 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 4: able to compete. It's going to be tough. Is a 175 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 4: machine that's run by both Lily particularly and Novo two. 176 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 7: Yeah, you're talking about this weight loss pedal that Lily 177 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 7: wants to launch. It could happen or the approval, I 178 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 7: should say, could happen as early as April. Lily did 179 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 7: just get approval from the FDA SAM to sell zet 180 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:20,079 Speaker 7: bound in a multi dose pen. Why is this format important? 181 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 7: Is it because it's more lucrative? Does it make it 182 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 7: more accessible? 183 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 4: Like? 184 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 7: What does that multi dose pen allow Lily to do? 185 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 4: Here? Well, let's although I know we don't talk about 186 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 4: sustainable stuff anymore, this is more sustainable rather throwing out 187 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 4: the pen every time, right, So that's that's nice. And 188 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 4: number two is therefore that should mean depending on how 189 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 4: complicated it is to have a multi dose pen, the 190 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 4: origin is a bit better because you're not throwing out 191 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 4: the pen every time and they don't have to keep 192 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 4: making a pen. So all of these are our elements. 193 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 4: And you know, it's not rocket science that they've done it. 194 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 4: It's just that you have to also be careful. This 195 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 4: is an active drug. You need to make sure that 196 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 4: it's well stored, so it's not sitting in the sunshine 197 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 4: or frozen outside. That's the sort of thing you have 198 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 4: to think about when you have a molted those device. 199 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 4: But I think this would be helpful to both people 200 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 4: users and the karma companies. 201 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 2: Sam. 202 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 3: We all know that President Trump has made cutting drug 203 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 3: costs a key priority, and a lot of drugmakers have 204 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 3: cut deals with this administration. Has it resulted in profits 205 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 3: reductions out there for a lot of these companies are 206 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 3: annalys taking their numbers down. 207 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 4: Well, if you go with Noble ICs announcement today that 208 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 4: specifically calls this out price pressure, then yes, the only 209 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 4: thing is that they need that price pressure to exist. Really, 210 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 4: so how come they're not covering? So I think the 211 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 4: Novo story is more than just the price pressure. It's 212 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 4: also that they're potentially, as we talked about earlier, losing 213 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 4: volume going forward, or that they're being over pessimistic. There's 214 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 4: a couple of other companies like today no artists mentioned 215 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 4: MFN pricing for some of theirs that will be it, 216 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 4: I don't think it's as think it hits as Novo's 217 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 4: talking about. If you look at the share price too 218 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 4: for twenty twenty six, it sounds like they're going to 219 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 4: pretty much manage it. But they have pulled it out 220 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,199 Speaker 4: until these companies that don't pulled it out at all 221 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:14,559 Speaker 4: stay with us. 222 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 223 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 224 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android 225 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 226 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 227 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about some technology earnings. Here, we 228 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 3: get super Micro delivers I guess better than expected sales 229 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 3: forecast in the quarter we had HP. They maintained their guidance. 230 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:47,679 Speaker 2: Here their CEO left. I don't know what's going on there. 231 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 2: Let's talk to Wujinho. He doesn't know what's going on. 232 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 3: There, Senior technology anels from Bloomerg Intelligence. Hey, well, let's 233 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 3: talk about Hewlett Packer here HP. I guess they kept 234 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 3: their guidance. But the CEO departure was Is that unexpected? 235 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,959 Speaker 8: Yeah, hey Paul, Yeah, that was highly unexpected. You know, Enrique, 236 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 8: the CEO was a lifer, started there as an intern, 237 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 8: and jumping over to PayPal was a surprise to us. 238 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 8: And he's leaving me at a precarious time because he 239 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 8: was tasked to navigate the PC business when dram prices 240 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 8: are spiking, which and then quite frankly, I did find 241 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 8: it positive that they did maintain their guidance for the year. 242 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about those DRAM 243 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 7: prices spiking, because this is something that people really zer 244 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,679 Speaker 7: it in on when it came to Apple's results as well. 245 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 7: How big a cost is these rising prices of memory 246 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 7: chips for a PC company like HP. 247 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 8: Yeah, so if we think about the total build up 248 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 8: of materials d RAM as well as the storage that 249 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 8: goes in there, it's roughly it went from about ten 250 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 8: to fifteen percent of the cost, and now it's spiking 251 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 8: up to about twenty to thirty percent of the cost. Right, 252 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 8: So what's going to happen. They're not going to give 253 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 8: it away a gross margin, that's for sure, because we're 254 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 8: talking about very thin margins for the PC business, and 255 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 8: we've already we're already hearing about PC pricing going up 256 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 8: around twenty to thirty percent going into the later twenty 257 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 8: twenty six. So, Scarl, if we think about it as 258 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 8: a very elastic, elastic demand for PCs, it is going 259 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 8: to hit possibly on the demand side, and then keep PCs. 260 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 8: People keep keeping PCs longer. 261 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 2: How about the print supply business. Just as a consumer. 262 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 3: That's where I feel like I pay a lot of 263 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,079 Speaker 3: money when I get the print supply stuff for the 264 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 3: HP PRI inter talk to us about that business, yeah. 265 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,199 Speaker 8: You know, I will tell you though. I think what's 266 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 8: being overlooked by investors here is that the print supply 267 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 8: business is going to be the cushion, you know, the 268 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,599 Speaker 8: inks that you and I pay for. That that's a 269 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 8: nineteen percent EBIT margin business. 270 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 2: So more than that, trust. 271 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:00,719 Speaker 8: Me in my wallet's all I light as well. I'm 272 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 8: glad my kids are out of school so they don't 273 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 8: print as much, but it is going to provide a cushion. 274 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 8: Even though it is the hardware isn't secular decline, there 275 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 8: are making some move either by subscription UH to UH 276 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 8: to supply to provide some of that downside risk and earnings. 277 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 7: What is the long term trend line for that print 278 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 7: supply business, because I mean, every office is trying to 279 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 7: go digital and not have printers available to everyone, and 280 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 7: I know there are some parts of government that can't 281 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 7: do without actual physical printouts of documents. But I would 282 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 7: imagine that this shift to you know, everything being virtual 283 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 7: and digital means that this overall is in a long 284 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 7: term structural decline. 285 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 8: Easy answer or the simple answer minus two percent on 286 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 8: a year one year basis, on a long term basis, right, 287 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 8: there's always that. Yeah, well there's always that one guy 288 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 8: who's going to print the ten case and ten qures 289 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 8: right and in color. 290 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 7: So you know we're a dying Breed's that's the thing, right, 291 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 7: I mean, the young people aren't going to do that. 292 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't do that. 293 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 7: Really, you don't pretend anything. Oh that's true, got. 294 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 2: It on my phone. 295 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 8: I think the kids are the kids are going back 296 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 8: to the old school ways of old elder folk of 297 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 8: printing more and having more photo keepsake. So, uh, you know, 298 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 8: I don't think it's We're talking about a structural decline 299 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 8: of ten percent on a year on year basis, but 300 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 8: there's enough print from a documentation, uh standpoint that is 301 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 8: going to hold the business. 302 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 3: How about super Micro? Here, I see the stock of 303 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 3: fourteen percent here today. Talk to us about their earnings. 304 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 8: I will tell you. Look, I've talked about this, you 305 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 8: know at nausea about super Micro. The AI server business 306 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 8: is a double edged sword. 307 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 4: Right. 308 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 8: Where they won out in the last quarter print was 309 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 8: that the AI servers demand came out a lot better 310 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 8: than expected, roughly one point five billion beat in in sales, 311 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 8: and that's primarily because the Blackwell ramp up is or 312 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 8: to wrap up now, I will tell you I think 313 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 8: one customer really helped them out. Sixty two percent of 314 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 8: their sales was from I think from Xai. But look, 315 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 8: the offset has always been the margin side, four point 316 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 8: five percent in operating margin, and I think their guidance 317 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 8: implies is going to be roughly around the same my 318 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 8: next quarter. 319 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up here for. 320 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: This you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us 321 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android 322 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 323 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 324 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 3: Let's stay with some earnings news here rights back in 325 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 3: the middle of a busy, busy week for earnings young brands. 326 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 3: I think restaurants fourth quarter just at EPs misses estimates here, 327 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 3: So yeah, hit or missing the restaurant business is kind 328 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 3: of what we've been seeing more recently. 329 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 2: Jody Lori joints us here. She is a Bloomberg Intelligence 330 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 2: credit analyst. 331 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 3: She covers all things kind of the consumer things, cruise lines, 332 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,959 Speaker 3: theme parks, casinos, parts of the restaurant industry. 333 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 2: So anywhere you. 334 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 3: See the consumer spending money, that's where you'll find her. 335 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 3: So let's check in with Jodi Jody. Let's start with 336 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 3: young brands there. What are they saying about their business 337 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 3: and the consumer. 338 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 9: So it's very clear that they're focused on Taco Bell 339 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 9: as well as the international component of KFC because those 340 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 9: are what is driving revenue at the moment. They're also 341 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 9: looking into strategic alternatives for pizza, which they announced last quarter, 342 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 9: and they got a little bit more clarity around that 343 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 9: in terms of closing some stores, really sort of reassessing 344 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 9: the pizza hut business because it's not necessarily where they're 345 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 9: seeing growth. I think what was most interesting for me 346 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 9: is they highlighted the strength of the high income consumer 347 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 9: as well as the young consumer and the family consumer, 348 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 9: particularly as it went to Taco Bell. And I mean, 349 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 9: for me personally, I like to consider myself young, but 350 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 9: I do fit the family category and I fit the 351 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 9: you know, higher income category, I would say, and that 352 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 9: definitely checks out. You know, I think there is an 353 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 9: appeal to a company like that particularly as you're looking 354 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 9: at alternatives. 355 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, during the snowstorm when I was kind of socked 356 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 3: in here, I found the Taco bell on Third Avenue. 357 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, Lexington Avenue. Very good finded. Did not did 358 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 3: not know it was there. So I'm in good shape there. 359 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 3: From the credit perspective, Jody, to credit investors, like when 360 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 3: they look at these restaurant companies that they want to see, 361 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 3: I guess a diversification of brands, you know, through the 362 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 3: income level. 363 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 2: How do they how did they look at it? 364 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 9: So you do want to see some diversification. You want 365 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 9: to see some geographic diversication. Something that young It benefits 366 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 9: from is because they have the franchise model so heavily 367 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 9: in their business, it's almost all of their their restaurants. 368 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 9: It helps them from a cash flow and from margin perspective, 369 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 9: particularly as compared to companies that have more owned brands 370 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 9: such as Darden. Right, Darden is going into franchise, but 371 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 9: they're primarily owned brands, and so it's a little bit 372 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 9: different structure and it does help Young Now. I think 373 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 9: what's so interesting interesting about youm is if you look 374 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 9: back ten years ago, they were investment grade rated. Then 375 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 9: they spun off on China, and then they decided to 376 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 9: give themselves hefty dividends and share buybacks and stayed high yield. 377 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 9: Since management is very clear that they're happy with the 378 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 9: four times debt leverage, they're keeping within that range and 379 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 9: I don't really see them moving beyond that. But if 380 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 9: they wanted to be investment grade, I think they could. 381 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 9: They just don't care too because they'd rather spend their 382 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 9: money on shareholders and on KPEX. 383 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,719 Speaker 3: Hey, Drea, I thought of you earlier this week when 384 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 3: we saw the news that Josh Tomorrow has been appointed 385 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 3: chief executive officer of the Walt Disney Company, and of 386 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 3: course he runs the experiences businesses for Disney. 387 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 2: I think the theme parks, the cruise. 388 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 3: Ships kind of the businesses. 389 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 2: That you tend to follow here. 390 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:56,639 Speaker 3: But boy, they seem to be all in on theme parks, 391 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 3: on cruise ships, that scene. I kind of took it 392 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 3: as a vote conference for that part of the industry. 393 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:04,480 Speaker 4: Absolutely. 394 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:06,719 Speaker 9: I mean, you know, we're seeing in our data that 395 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 9: experience spending is still very very strong. I've joked many 396 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 9: times with Steve Flynn, who covers Disney from a credit perspective, 397 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 9: that really it should be under my coverage because they're 398 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 9: much more of an experienced company, and I think this 399 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:23,719 Speaker 9: lands right. But all that aside, you know, Steve's fantastic analyst, 400 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:27,160 Speaker 9: and you all should read and stuff. But all that aside, 401 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 9: I would say that that what's so interesting, and something 402 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 9: that I've said many times when people talk to me 403 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 9: about the cruise lines, for example, they say, Okay, you know, 404 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 9: I see that occupancy levels are you know, one O 405 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 9: eight or one o nine? What does that mean? One 406 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 9: hundred and nine percent, right, And that means that the 407 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 9: average room occupies two people per room, and if you 408 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 9: have more than that, then that is obviously above one 409 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 9: hundred percent. That's how you get that weird one O 410 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 9: nine one o eight number. But when you look at Disney, 411 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 9: obviously they don't give that detail. And I've made comments 412 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 9: to the effect that I do I am curious what 413 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 9: their occupancy level is because if you've ever been on 414 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:05,919 Speaker 9: a Disney cruise, I don't think there's any room that 415 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 9: is fewer than three people in it. I'd be very 416 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 9: shocked to see so their occupancy rates are so much higher. 417 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 9: It makes sense why they're expanding their ship presence in 418 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 9: the water. You know, increasing the number of ships in 419 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 9: the water. It also makes sense why they're expanding in 420 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 9: terms of travel beyond the US, because I think that 421 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 9: with the trend we're seeing is that international travel demand 422 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 9: is there, and it also helps to sort of diversify 423 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 9: them away from any sort of pressures in Florida or California, 424 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 9: where we've seen quite a lot of weird patterns that 425 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 9: SeaWorld has commented on. Six Flig has commented on so 426 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,640 Speaker 9: that that geographic diversification could be helpful. 427 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 3: Well, I booked my first cruise ever for next I 428 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 3: guess October Viking cruise, going river cruise. 429 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 7: That's the one cuds right, that's so I'll no kids. 430 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 9: In big print on the shampoo is. 431 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere 432 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday ten 433 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, 434 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 1: tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 435 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 1: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on 436 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal