WEBVTT - Long Covid Impacts Millions Worldwide 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.640 plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.160 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.239 Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.200 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.880 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.520 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We're gonna talk a bit 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:35.200 about more, a little more about COVID uh Switzerland joining Spain, 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:37.920 the UK and suggesting that the virus pandemic may be 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:40.520 shifting to an endemic phase. You've got the White House 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.200 moving to prevent future shortages of COVID night Team tests 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.560 ensuring they continue to be produced in large number, crety, 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.239 A lot going on. Australia's cases are surging. It's just 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:53.120 a reminder it's a global pandemic and until we all 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:54.880 get through it, we're all gonna have to deal with it. Yeah, 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.480 it really speaks to the fact that vaccine or I say, 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:00.800 COVID fatigue is absolutely a factor. Here a people saying, well, 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:02.760 you know, we're done with this, We're gonna just live 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:05.520 our lives as normal, and in some case numbers show 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:07.520 that maybe you can't do that just yet. Speaking of 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.320 COVID fatigue, some of those who get COVID, it's sticking 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:12.480 around for a long time, those long haulers. Let's get 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:16.160 to that and more. But Dr Batty Raman, Principal investigator 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.959 of the Radcliffe Department of Medicine at the University of Oxford. 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:22.560 She joins us on the phone from Oxford, England. Dr Ramen, 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:24.679 nice to have you here with us. How are you 0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:26.840 and what are you seeing when it comes to the 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:33.399 progression of COVID in the UK. Thanks Carol. I'd like 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:35.840 to take this opportunity to say, UM, you know, really 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:40.000 appreciate this invitation. UM. COVID is still very high. The 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:42.959 number of cases are still very high in the UK. UM. 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.520 An increasing concern for many is the long term effects 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.640 of COVID. As you might no long covid is um. 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.720 The is a syndrome that some people may experience beyond 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:56.400 the acute space it's a serious global health concern and 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.800 UM has already affected one point three million people here 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.560 in the UK that constitutes more than two percent of 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:05.920 our population. And it is estimated that more than fifty 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:09.440 million worldwide will be affected by long COVID and that 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:13.959 many will will will continue to be diagnosed with ongoing 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:18.880 symptoms and complications from COVID. Is the normal simplicancy. We 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.400 are statistic and I'm not sure if your team shared 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:23.720 it with our producer, but is it correct that nearly 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:27.160 one quarter of virus survivors will have some kind of 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:32.560 long term effect? Yes, that's that's true. So roughly about 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:38.320 can have sometimes some type of long term effect. Touch 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.560 us a little bit about one what that looks like 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:45.400 and how you actually go about addressing it. Yes, so 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.400 this is what people are commonly referring to long COVID 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.680 or prosecutically of COVID or past UM. Long COVID is 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:57.080 defined by consistent systemctings beyond three months of infection. The 0:02:57.080 --> 0:03:00.600 most common manifestation is fatigue, but people to report a 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:06.080 range of symptoms including headaches, body pain, gas or intestinal symptoms, 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:10.120 brain fog. So there are multitude of symptoms that people experience. 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:13.360 We know that it it really affects someone's ability to 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:15.880 return to work. That more than fifty percent of people 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:18.519 with long covids have either not been able to return 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.280 to work or have returned to modified duties. It has 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:24.600 huge implications for the economy. What can we do about it? 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:30.360 So I think we're still looking for answers. Um there 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:35.560 has been some evidence that the mitochondria of the muscle, 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:39.240 which is basically the powerhouse of all the cells, might 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:43.240 be contributing to the symptom of fatigue. The certainly is 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:45.480 the pre clinical studies showing that the virus might hijack 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:50.240 the mitochondria and affect the seal's ability to fight the 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:55.000 infections and promote inflammatory pathways. So we're particularly interested in 0:03:55.120 --> 0:04:00.640 testing a treatment or a therapy that Accelor Therapeutic have developed. 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:04.600 It's called the EX five, a mixture of five amino 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:08.920 acids um which has been shown to have a beneficial 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:13.520 effect to the mitochondria and also result in meaningful reduction 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:16.960 in other markets of inflammation, a little fat and even 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.800 incident resistance. So we talk about long COVID, just how 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:26.280 long is long? Are we talking about weeks, months, years, even? Yeah? 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:30.080 So some of the patients we've seen, UM, who've who've 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:34.800 volunteered for our study have had long COVID since we'll 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:40.080 have had ongoing symptoms since March so UM, you know, 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.719 so sorry twenty So this is we're talking about really 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:48.840 protracted symptoms for some people. But the definition that the 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:52.880 UK has introduced by nice refers to symptoms beyond three 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:57.960 months of infection. What's the what's the timeline in terms 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.279 of this treatment that you talk about, um, that might 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.600 help with these COVID long haulers? Uh? Is this something 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:07.920 that will see maybe put into use later on this year? 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:12.680 Just got about thirty seconds left here, Yeah, so we 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:17.560 hope to have some results by mid twenty two. The 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:20.840 study has already started recruitment as well underway. There's been 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:23.800 a huge number of participants interested and the first patient 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:27.080 has been dosed with the treatment. So UM, so we've 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:30.599 got some Uh. It looks really promising just in terms 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:34.240 of reaching our target and finishing the study UM quite 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:37.800 early on, UM, and we hope that there's some positive 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:40.760 for patients worldwide. We'll look forward to hearing more on 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:43.920 that as you guys go through the testing process. Dr 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:46.960 Betty Rama and Principal Investigator for the Radcliffe Department of 0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:50.120 Medicine at the University of Oxford, on the phone from Oxford. 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.320 Another story I just want to mention having to do 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:54.880 with COVID from the Associated Press u S Army for 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:58.280 the first time offering a maximum enlistment bonus of fifty 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:01.919 dollars to highly skilled recruit who joined for six years. 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:05.440 The AP learning this as the service struggles to bring 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:09.960 in soldiers into critical jobs amid the continuing pandemics with 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:13.520 A two creating or dealing with a work shortage. This 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:17.560 is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:21.640 Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, this week's Bloomberg 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.119 Business Week, it's all about the year ahead. The cover story. 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:27.280 The issue is about the biggest dangers to the economy, 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:30.360 the global economy this year in folks, surprise, surprise, it's 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:32.840 really not about COVID for more. Let's bring in our 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.280 senior executive editor for Economics at Bloomberg, Head of Bloomberg Economics, 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:39.240 Stephanie Flander. She is with us on the phone in London, 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:42.039 along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joell Webber on the 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:45.040 access line and Brooklyn. You know, Joel, the t I 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:47.400 a issue. I love it. It It always looks into you know, 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.240 what's going to go on maybe and what are these 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:51.640 stories that are to dominate this year? But so much 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:54.279 of what happens this year depends on kind of global 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:56.360 bankers getting it right. And I'm talking about you know, 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:59.039 we're talking about central bankers getting it right. Yeah, and 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:02.040 talk about a well timed story right just on the 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.240 heels of of yesterday. UM. And you know, we try 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:07.760 and gaze into a crystal ball as as much as 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:11.080 we can in this issue. UM. We always feel like 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:13.320 whenever we're talking about the year ahead, people are just 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:15.760 like I want to always know what's going on with 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:19.320 the economy. And I think that is especially true now 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:23.400 living through what we've all lived through, the unpresented nature 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.880 of of not only COVID but also the responses to COVID. 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:31.000 And now we find ourselves somewhere hopefully maybe on the 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:34.800 back end, and we get to deal with, um, you know, 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:37.680 the aftermath of all of this. UM. But you know, 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:41.120 like you said in the top there, UM, COVID perhaps 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:43.920 maybe not the central theme that we have to rustle 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:47.440 with now. And we we've seen what response can can 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:50.240 look like and how we can manage um. So so 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:54.520 Stephanie over to you, what what job is it that 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:57.840 the central bankers have to rustle with now? They have 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:01.320 to work out whether the glabal economy is kind of 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:05.720 especially the US economy if you're the FED, is permanently 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:08.200 changed as a result of COVID, that they should really 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:10.280 take seriously the idea that people don't want to go 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.280 back to their jobs, you know, having trouble filling jobs, 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:15.840 that we're really going to have inflation kind of endemic 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.560 in the economy rather than just being this transitory thing, 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:21.600 or whether actually we are all going to be going 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:23.520 back to normal, the economy is going to be more 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:25.040 or less like it was in a year or so. 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:26.840 It's time and they just need to kind of sit 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.560 tight and you know, tweak a few levers and raise 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:32.640 a few interest rates, but fundamentally they don't have to 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.400 grapple with something different. And the risk is that at 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.640 the end of the year it turns out that they 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:41.319 just called that raw that for example, inflation really is 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:44.680 a big issue. Financial markets are losing confidence in the 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:48.160 central banks kind of understanding in the situation and we 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:52.720 face a big problem, Stephanie. These aren't exactly synchronized, synchronized moves. 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.160 We're we're talking about central banking, and you have the PBC, 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:59.040 for example, continuing to ease, the ECB essentially passing the FED. 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:01.760 Even emerging market it's hiking as quickly as they can, 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:03.240 or at least that's what the market is telling us 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:05.360 they're going to do. How much of that kind of 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.600 dislocation across the world is a problem for the global 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:15.280 economy because that's this is a new moment there. Yeah, 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.120 I think so, And I think that was interesting. One 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:18.520 of the things I was sort of thinking about as 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:20.559 I wrote the piece is you have, on the one hand, 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:22.559 a kind of familiar dynamic of, you know, if the 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:26.080 Federal Reserve raises interest rates were emerging market economies that 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:28.360 could face the biggest problems as a result of that. 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:30.840 They kind of get the long end of that story. 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:33.280 But actually there's a whole other thing going on, which 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.000 is China's already slowed down a bit, and for the 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:39.199 first time ever really certainly in living memory, that the 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.840 People's Bank of China is going to do something different 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:44.240 from the FED. They've always had to slavishly follow the 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.079 Fed because they had their exchange rate tied to the dollar. 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:50.920 They've kind of won their own declaration of independence from 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:54.520 developing their economy and changing their policies, and they now 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.040 have the freedom to cut interest rates just as the 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.520 Federal Reserve is raising them. So that is an interesting 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:03.120 moment the global economy viewers, and kind of staying as 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:06.080 always a few steps behind, still waiting even for that 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:11.400 much inflation, let alone problem needing to raise rates. Okay, 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.560 so I mean, Stephane, the fact that Chinese going one way, 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:17.760 the US going another, but even just the fact that 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.920 we have I did a bit of cross talk there, 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:23.520 so forgive me. But the fact that we have everyone 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.480 not working in locked stop for a change that is 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:30.120 radically different, right, And and so what what does that 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:32.600 start to look like if you're if your power, for instance, 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:35.040 and you're trying to control what you can control, but 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.800 then there's all these other forces that could perhaps work 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:41.000 against you. How much of that the calculus starts to 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:44.079 have the factor in that stuff? Well, it certainly effects 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.320 the certainly way thanks the way the financial markets think, right, 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.880 because you've got the urosone more or less on hold. 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:53.120 So you know, interesting, there is a certain amount of 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.240 pressure pulling down the cost of money, pulling down long 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:58.880 term interest rates, bond yield, even as you've got the 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:02.560 Federal Reserve maybe four maybe five, maybe six rate rises 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:04.960 this year, we don't know, um, So that is a 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:07.880 different dynamic that we're not all darting to the same 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:10.360 tune as the US. But I think it is still 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.400 fundamentally the case. The most important story is going to 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.319 be what happens to inflation in the US, what happens 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:20.160 to inflation expectations to people trust that the Fed knows 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:22.800 what it's doing, And as a consequence of that, of course, 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:26.200 what happens in financial markets. What's this tricky Stephanie? Right? 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.839 And in the question on on your pieces, which way 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:32.000 to normal? Do we really know what normal? Is it 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.079 a new normal on the other side of the pandemic? 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:37.040 Isn't that part of the problem. Yeah, And that's what 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.120 I found kind of curious, and it made me think 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:41.040 about it writing this piece, and I was so glad 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:42.959 that the editor asking me to do it just before. 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:48.560 But that's pout knowing your audience, Stephanie, well done. I 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:51.120 look at the forecast and I sort of thought, it's 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:54.320 funny because I've also written them, but had we've had 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:59.679 economic research around the VID having boosted productivity in some areas, 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.199 you know, businesses that had to bring in automation much 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:06.200 faster than expected, everyone working from home and therefore being 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:09.480 modiginously enabled in their work. You know that this was 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.200 actually going to make us more productive weirdly and almost 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.680 produced like a COVID dividend. So there was that whole discussion, 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.320 and you know, other ways in which people felt there 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.480 was a fundamental change, maybe in supply chains, you know, 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.560 because of what's happened in China and what happened during COVID, 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.199 and when you look at the forecast, and maybe economists 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:31.960 are just not very original or imagine people, but they're 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.800 all kind of expecting despite all of what we consider 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:38.280 to be really important changes in the micro economy, they 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.640 somehow think the macro economy is going to carry on 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:42.960 more or less the same after this year. And that 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:44.920 does seem like a bit of a disconnect, like who's 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:46.840 going to turn out to be right? Is it? How 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.360 are we really transformed as a result of COVID, or 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.240 is this just you know a lot of this much 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:55.080 less permanent than we think. Alright, we're gonna leave it 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.719 on that note. It's an incredible story. Joel's right, it's 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:00.480 so timely considering hearing from j Power all and all 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:04.840 these uh fed central bankers are fed bankers, I should 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.080 say this week. I mean, this is really front and center. 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.520 So an incredible story and a great read and so relevant. Stephanie, 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.440 thank you. Stephanie Flander, Senior Executive editor, head of Bloomberg 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.320 Economics at Bloomberg News, on the phone from London, and 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.680 our thanks to Joel Webber as well, Editor Bloomberg Business 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.600 Week on the access line from Brooklyn. I love this issue. 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.960 It's the year ahead. It's looking at what's ahead in 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.640 the economy, what's ahead in politics, what's ahead in terms 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:29.439 of how we consume. It's going to be all on 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:32.800 our weekend show. But it's really a really smart issue, 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.720 and it'll be on newstands tomorrow. Some of the stories 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.439 already on the Bloomberg and also Bloomberg dot Com. We're 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:42.520 coming out this week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.640 with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:50.199 Bloomberg Radio. Interesting story that popped up on our raidar. 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.640 It also happens to be in Bloomberg Business Weeks You're 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.599 Ahead issue, which is out on newsstands tomorrow on the 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.559 Bloomberg and also at Bloomberg dot com and cretty. It's 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:01.800 about how there is still no Amazon for housing, but 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.640 there's some fintech companies they're working on it. It's it's 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:06.840 in the works. But I mean, remember we've had a 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.559 rough couple of months when it comes to Zillo and 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.720 some of the other up piers. And for that, for 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.360 more information on that sector, we've got to bring in 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:16.480 the experts here, and that of course is Patrick Clark. 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.200 He covers real estate for bloomber Keys on the phone 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.320 from right here in New York City. Patrick, thank you 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.080 for joining us. I loved your story because there's a 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.600 line that stuck out to me. Uh whereas that it 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.840 made sense to order pants online, but many consumers still 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:33.120 prefer brick and mortar grocery stores where they can squeeze 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:36.000 the avocado and I at the steak. I guess houses 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:39.280 are no different. Tell us more about it. Yeah, I 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:42.400 mean every house is different, just like every piece of fruit. 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.800 I guess, um, it's been the it's been the great 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:50.720 challenge for companies, particularly tech companies. But I guess all 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.600 companies that are looking for waste to to sort of 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:57.360 carve out a either a small or large niche in 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:01.880 the US housing market. Um, at the end of the day, 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.160 they're really not a house is really not a commodity 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:06.520 good even even a sort of mass produced house that 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.600 looks like all the houses next to it, Like every 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.800 house has a different view and every house will you know, 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:16.560 age in different ways, and and um it's um not 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.280 only did for the most part like literally to do 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:24.160 homebuyers want to actually go squeeze the house, but they 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:27.960 they it's just very hard to take the human element 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:31.040 out of out of buying and selling one. So wait, 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.680 are you saying that there isn't a Carbonna approach to 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.840 buying a house and we can't go to a chaosk 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:39.240 and say yeah, like that split level. It's you know, 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.280 it's really I love that you said Carvana because it's 0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:43.080 it's how a lot of the companies, a lot of 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:47.120 the prop teps as they call themselves prop tech companies, UM, 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:53.280 A lot of them use the Carbonna model as an analogy, 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.200 which is which is to say, that you know, UM, 0:15:56.240 --> 0:16:00.480 we started with pants or books and and and you know, 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.520 slowly but surely have have worked our way up the 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.720 value chain in terms of the types of um, the 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.400 types of goods that you know, we're willing to that 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:12.640 we feel competent buying online and you know, and we 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:16.360 have gotten to cars in a way, right and and 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.240 you know the bet is that houses are next. It's 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:23.360 just that I think, UM, I think that you know, 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:27.400 at at at each new level of value and it's 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.040 not just value when it comes to a home, UM, 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.200 it's it's value and complication and there's an emotional component. 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:35.920 It just gets more complicated. Well, what's interesting is, and 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:41.560 we've talked throughout the pandemic to UM real estate agents, realtors, 0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.640 heads of home companies where they talked about transactions during 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.600 the deep throws of the pandemic back in where they 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:53.360 did everything online, everything was a digital transaction. So it 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:57.920 can be done. I guess right, More and more parts 0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:00.200 of the transaction can be done digitally. And I think 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:05.760 that the pandemic was you know, I think it accelerated 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:13.480 acceptance both by consumers, regulators, UM that UM, you know, lenders, 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:16.240 what have you like that that that more things can 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:20.400 be done virtually remotely. Um. And so so I think 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:23.960 the pandemic spit this up, no question. Um. But um, 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.320 it's one thing too, you know, it's one thing to 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.040 speed it up, but it hasn't solved the problem. Creaty. 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:30.399 I just want to get I want to get rid 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:31.879 of that that that meeting that you have to have 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:35.080 with everybody's lawyers and secure lawyers on one side, the 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:36.920 sellers on another, or the part like I just want 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:38.480 to get rid of that part of it. I have 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.280 never bought a house, so I cannot relate, although I 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:42.920 will admit I live in New York City and I 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:45.320 look forward to the days where I can have a 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.560 white picket fence. That being said, speaking of rental properties, 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:50.360 which is what it actually kind of comes to mind 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:52.399 as we talked about the pandemic, because a lot of 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:56.439 people were actually shopping for apartment these virtual walkthroughs, and 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:58.720 then I wonder how many people actually showed up at 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:00.719 the apartment was like, this is a lot smaller than 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:04.520 it looked on FaceTime. I'm curious, Patrick, what's next for this? 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.200 I mean, is there a solution or is there any 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:13.040 money making prospect when it comes to shopping for houses virtually. Yeah, 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:15.440 I think there's two there's two main ways to think 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:18.080 about it. One is, you know, you'll continue to have 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:22.640 companies that improve and and sort of digitize and bring 0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:26.720 online components of the transaction. And some of these are 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:28.760 the things that we don't really think about. It's like 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:32.000 it's the people in the room at the closing date 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:34.360 who you know, you barely understand who they are, but 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:37.280 but this guy is you know, this guy has run 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:38.879 the title on the home to make sure that the 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:43.359 seller you really owns it for example, right, and and 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:46.160 so there's pieces of it that that I think can 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:51.000 be very successfully um you know, brought into the century 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:56.800 here and there are also there's also a move to 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.159 put more and more of these services together. So you 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:03.320 have you know, you have brokerages that are real estate 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:06.160 brokerages that are hiring that that are buying or building 0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:10.919 mortgage lenders internally, you have um, you know, traditional mortgage 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:13.880 lenders who who are sparing in to offer different types 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:16.679 of bridge finance that that would allow a buyer to 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:19.399 compete like a cash buyer. You have you have this 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:21.600 idea that you can bring all of these things together 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:25.280 and and and again going back to the this idea 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:30.119 of the you know, the closing meeting um basically to 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:36.520 simplify and do more of the transaction online with one company, 0:19:37.119 --> 0:19:39.560 so the consumers only dealing with sort of one interface 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:42.760 that I think there's some promise to that. One of 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.720 the challenges is it's a lot of technology, it's a 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:47.439 it's a lot of process you have to deliver to 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.040 the customer. And so the question is one can you 0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:51.879 build it? And too can you actually make money doing it? 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.080 And that's the thing that you know, hopefully we'll we'll 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:56.920 see some progress on. I look forward to the huberization 0:19:57.200 --> 0:20:00.520 of home buyer. Hey, Pat, thanks so much. Patrick Clark 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:02.679 real Estate Report at Bloomberg News on the phone from 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.520 New York City. Check them out at Twitter at Pat 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:14.040 underscore Clark. I'm road, yeah, I'll bet you Let me drive. No, no, no, honey, please, 0:20:14.160 --> 0:20:18.760 I'll do the riding gravels. Let's I want to drive. 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:25.560 It's a good question. Good drive. This is the drive 0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:30.800 to the globe well up down on bloom Bird Radio. 0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:33.960 All right, tick took everybody nine, about ten minutes left 0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:36.840 in today's trading session. We've seen some volatili this week, 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.359 but certainly a lot more optimism bouncing around though today, 0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:42.000 and we are a little bit lower on those major 0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:44.240 equity averages. So let's get to it. Let's get to 0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:46.480 the drive to the clothes. Aaron Kennon is back with us, 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.840 co founder, chief executive officer at Clear Harbor Asset Management 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:52.800 approximately a billion a little bit more than a billion 0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:57.720 in assets under management, on the phone once again from Stanford, Connecticut. Hey, Aaron, 0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:00.280 nice to have you with Creedy and me. Happy you year. 0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:03.240 How are you doing great? Thanks for having me back. Carroll, 0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:04.760 Happy new year to do both of you. Well, So 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:07.040 how do you make sense of what we've seen so far? 0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:12.080 It's just, you know what, five eight days in in 0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:14.160 the new year, we're trying to figure out the trend line. 0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:15.720 I think it's safe to say that it's going to 0:21:15.840 --> 0:21:18.840 be vaulatile this year, but but who knows, because I 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:21.440 do feel like we've got some clarity to some extent 0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:24.000 from the Fed in terms of what's to come. How 0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.840 do you see it though, Well, you know, we're we're 0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:32.400