1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:06,080
Speaker 1: And he Armstrong and Eddy.

2
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:16,400
Speaker 2: US and Saudi fighter aircraft struck multiple terrorists, logistics, and

3
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:20,560
Speaker 2: weapons sites across Iraq in a strong response to over

4
00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,040
Speaker 2: thirty IRGC directed aerial drone attacks in the last seventy

5
00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:29,480
Speaker 2: two hours. The unwarranted attacks against US forces were not successful,

6
00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,800
Speaker 2: and that's the latest proof that in this newly shaped

7
00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:37,440
Speaker 2: Middle East, Saudi Arabia is on the same side as Israel.

8
00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,599
Speaker 3: President Trump, reacting to that Iranian attack on US forces

9
00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 3: overnight in Jordan, President Trump tells Fox News about Iran,

10
00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,880
Speaker 3: we are going to beat the effings out of them.

11
00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,360
Speaker 3: He went on to say, we'll be hitting them hard.

12
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:53,040
Speaker 3: They're going to get a beating.

13
00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,319
Speaker 4: The problem, of course, being that if you say that

14
00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,960
Speaker 4: every other day and then often don't follow through on it.

15
00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:01,720
Speaker 4: The I don't know if you're familiar with the whole

16
00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,160
Speaker 4: Boyo cried Wolf story, but major attack on a US

17
00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,080
Speaker 4: military base by Iran yesterday. Luckily we were able to

18
00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,560
Speaker 4: defend it, but it doesn't change the intent.

19
00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,199
Speaker 1: I want to get into some of the bizarre media

20
00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,200
Speaker 1: coverage of this, but that can wait till we discussed

21
00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,800
Speaker 1: the basics of the situation with military analyst Mike Lyons

22
00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,199
Speaker 1: who joins us now, Mike, welcome, How are.

23
00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,320
Speaker 5: You egg one of you guys back to be back?

24
00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,440
Speaker 1: What do you make of the attack by Iran, the

25
00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,720
Speaker 1: heightened involvement of various proxies around the region. Where are

26
00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:33,320
Speaker 1: we right now?

27
00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,920
Speaker 6: Well, you know, obviously this surprise attack takes place during

28
00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,000
Speaker 6: the funeral of Lindsay Graham. You know, this is just

29
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:41,920
Speaker 6: I think it's a message and who we're dealing with

30
00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,000
Speaker 6: when on the Ranian side, and the fact that they

31
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,880
Speaker 6: decided to do that. The US didn't attack when they

32
00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,760
Speaker 6: were doing that ceremony for Comania back then, So I

33
00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:53,960
Speaker 6: I'm surprised, but it just shows that they have a

34
00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,320
Speaker 6: will and I've got some level of fight. I you know,

35
00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,320
Speaker 6: as I'm reading from Institute Study of War, they are

36
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,640
Speaker 6: reporting that the multiple different factions inside of Iran that

37
00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,200
Speaker 6: that are controlling lots of different things right now. So

38
00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:10,720
Speaker 6: so the power is very decentralized. And while one one

39
00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,040
Speaker 6: sector can fire a missile at the other, one sector

40
00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:14,840
Speaker 6: is trying to do a deal with the United States.

41
00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:16,640
Speaker 6: I mean, then when Trump gets on and says, you know,

42
00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:18,280
Speaker 6: they're they're talking to us. They want to, they want

43
00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,960
Speaker 6: to They're begging us to stop. Well, that's might be

44
00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,240
Speaker 6: somebody in Iran doing that, but it's not the people

45
00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,600
Speaker 6: that control all the weapons. So it's still very very

46
00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:26,920
Speaker 6: confusing and very fluid.

47
00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:30,720
Speaker 4: Well, somebody who controls some pretty powerful weapons decided to

48
00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,680
Speaker 4: attack a US military base, so uh yeah, you know,

49
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:35,919
Speaker 4: I don't know how many people agreed with them, how

50
00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:41,600
Speaker 4: how how big of an attack was that and what

51
00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,440
Speaker 4: would it have been like if we hadn't been able

52
00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:44,440
Speaker 4: to intercept them all.

53
00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,720
Speaker 6: Well, you know, again, the air defense systems that we

54
00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,200
Speaker 6: have there are in layers, and they depends on what

55
00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,280
Speaker 6: part of the atmosphere they're coming from, and likely with

56
00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,359
Speaker 6: the Patriot missiles, uh, with with what took them out,

57
00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,240
Speaker 6: and the naval assets that we have in the region there. Uh,

58
00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,200
Speaker 6: but the targeting have been important in terms of location,

59
00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,120
Speaker 6: and we think that they're getting you know, the Ranians

60
00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,560
Speaker 6: are likely getting this targeting data from Russia or China.

61
00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,639
Speaker 6: It's very difficult for them with a few missiles that

62
00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:11,239
Speaker 6: they're firing.

63
00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,360
Speaker 5: Usually they have to fire them more in mass.

64
00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,760
Speaker 6: The fact that they could be as accurate as they've

65
00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:17,960
Speaker 6: been is telling, and I think we have to admit

66
00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,400
Speaker 6: to the fact that they're getting help from somebody in

67
00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 6: it to either Russia or China or somebody that has

68
00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:27,320
Speaker 6: this other capability. But we have to get out of

69
00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,400
Speaker 6: the missile defense business, frankly, and get back in the

70
00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,040
Speaker 6: missile offense business and go more on the offense.

71
00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,440
Speaker 1: Wow, okay, I was going to ask you the forces

72
00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 1: that we have aligned there in the region, how do

73
00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:43,680
Speaker 1: they match up with what we need to accomplish? Although

74
00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,120
Speaker 1: it's so complicated because you've got to figure out first

75
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,880
Speaker 1: what is the strategy. Is the strategy really truly the

76
00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:53,120
Speaker 1: economic squeeze and just waiting till they capitulate or beg

77
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,400
Speaker 1: for mercy. How do you see things strategically right now?

78
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,600
Speaker 6: They haven't committed, They haven't communicated that very well, and

79
00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,400
Speaker 6: so I would say as the strategy is, is the

80
00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:08,320
Speaker 6: military tax combined with the sanctions, combined with some negotiations,

81
00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,360
Speaker 6: combined with pressure from allies, and that would order to

82
00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,840
Speaker 6: get them back to the negotiation table. In a perfect

83
00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,720
Speaker 6: world you have regime change maybe, but right now we're

84
00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,680
Speaker 6: looking for regime compliance. I think that would be a

85
00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,279
Speaker 6: reasonable answer. The first MoU now has completely failed. I

86
00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,960
Speaker 6: mean that's not even a starting point. And the first

87
00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,520
Speaker 6: MoU had so many holes in it. That's reason why

88
00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,040
Speaker 6: it failed. So we have to learn from that decide

89
00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:34,839
Speaker 6: if we're going to do this again. But I would

90
00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:36,880
Speaker 6: like to see a thirty to thirty five days air

91
00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,599
Speaker 6: campaign like we did back, kind of a desert storm

92
00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:44,159
Speaker 6: of continuous a treading their capability, using military force to

93
00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,479
Speaker 6: do this in order to see if a run does

94
00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,440
Speaker 6: break from the inside, or finally some of those collistons

95
00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:51,920
Speaker 6: come together to decide they want to have a deal.

96
00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,039
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a report the other day that Trump was

97
00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:56,480
Speaker 4: getting some advice that the reason that we had stopped

98
00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 4: after fourteen straight nights of bombing was he as told,

99
00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,760
Speaker 4: we're you know, we've kind of hit all the targets

100
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,240
Speaker 4: we can hit, and we're down to stuff that it's

101
00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,000
Speaker 4: really not worth the expenditure weapons, blah blah blah. Do

102
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:08,800
Speaker 4: you agree with that or no?

103
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,000
Speaker 5: No, No, I don't think so. I think the you

104
00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:14,280
Speaker 5: have to bait them out.

105
00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:17,920
Speaker 6: Now at this point they have so few missiles, but

106
00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:20,720
Speaker 6: they can't fire at scale, and so at this point

107
00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:22,400
Speaker 6: you have to bait them out.

108
00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,080
Speaker 5: See when they bring them, and then we go in long.

109
00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,680
Speaker 6: Sales attacks, use AI, use satellites, use all our soft

110
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,640
Speaker 6: technology and power in order to kind of do that

111
00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,320
Speaker 6: because they're they on their side are not going to

112
00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,440
Speaker 6: necessarily expend all their am as well. When they take

113
00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:37,960
Speaker 6: a shot, they want to make a shot that they

114
00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,360
Speaker 6: think they're going to hit something. But but for you know,

115
00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:43,360
Speaker 6: they could still have five hundred missiles up. That's still

116
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,080
Speaker 6: a significant amount of missiles that desire to fire all

117
00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,360
Speaker 6: at once would be significantly damaging.

118
00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,279
Speaker 1: One of the big stories over the weekend and Monday,

119
00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,200
Speaker 1: I think it was, was that the other reason that

120
00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,040
Speaker 1: Trump decided to call off the dogs is that we're

121
00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,599
Speaker 1: running so dangerously low on patriot missiles. We kind of

122
00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,760
Speaker 1: had to. I think whoever leaked to that to the

123
00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,880
Speaker 1: media is tiptoeing up to the line of treason. I

124
00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,600
Speaker 1: can't believe that somebody would leak that. Am I overboard with.

125
00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 6: That, Yeah, I don't think that's the case. But again,

126
00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,880
Speaker 6: the weapons aren't an endless supply. Its we go to

127
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:17,960
Speaker 6: the patriotry and pick up some more Patriot missiles and

128
00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,880
Speaker 6: decide we're going to have them to fire, there is

129
00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,159
Speaker 6: a finite number as to what that is. I think

130
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,719
Speaker 6: we've been growing the patriot inventory year over years for

131
00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:30,200
Speaker 6: about the past thirty years. We did give a couple

132
00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,200
Speaker 6: of batteries and I think five batteries to Ukraine over

133
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,839
Speaker 6: the past few years, and they've expended some missiles, so

134
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,680
Speaker 6: there are canisters. But I'd like to think we're not

135
00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:40,760
Speaker 6: going to run out of ammunition. But like anything else,

136
00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,120
Speaker 6: we have to be prudent from the economic side of it.

137
00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:45,200
Speaker 5: We will get to a.

138
00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:48,440
Speaker 6: Point where we have to really think through on us

139
00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:50,839
Speaker 6: as to when we could start manufacturing. I'd like to

140
00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:55,520
Speaker 6: see us start remanufacturing, re energize the defense budget, and

141
00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:59,760
Speaker 6: are All, for example, is a company that's doing things

142
00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,560
Speaker 6: out of the extraordinary, not on the regular. You know,

143
00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:07,120
Speaker 6: the military acquisition systems. They're getting missile defense systems to

144
00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,520
Speaker 6: the market faster. We've now allowed the Ukrainians to license

145
00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,920
Speaker 6: the manufactured Patriot missiles they'll get, they'll get a factory

146
00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:14,360
Speaker 6: up and running very quickly, and they're going to be

147
00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,200
Speaker 6: very much dependent on their own air defenses I think

148
00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:18,280
Speaker 6: when their conflict is over.

149
00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,760
Speaker 4: Okay, So that gets into I think your piece you

150
00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,760
Speaker 4: wrote for real Clear Defense dot Com the Iran war

151
00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:25,840
Speaker 4: is back. The deal that ends up must not re

152
00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:30,760
Speaker 4: arm Tehran, and you wrote that before they attacked our

153
00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,800
Speaker 4: base yesterday. But what was your what was your main point?

154
00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,040
Speaker 5: Well, it just comes back to China again.

155
00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:39,520
Speaker 6: There's reports now this morning Reugers is reporting that the

156
00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 6: Chinese are shipping manpads, which are those shoulder fired air

157
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,480
Speaker 6: defense systems, to try to help with the Iranian air

158
00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,000
Speaker 6: defense systems. They won't be able to get their large

159
00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:49,840
Speaker 6: scale you know SA four hundreds that.

160
00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:50,679
Speaker 5: They come from Russia.

161
00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,000
Speaker 6: Uh, but but the Chinese are now trying looking to

162
00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,160
Speaker 6: possibly rearm the Iranians, and so will the Russians there.

163
00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,640
Speaker 6: I think one thing we haven't talked about is the

164
00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,160
Speaker 6: front now opening up in the Ukrainian War into the

165
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,640
Speaker 6: Caspian Sea which borders on Iran, which is Iran has

166
00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:09,200
Speaker 6: shipped their supplies and materials into Russia. There are Shihi

167
00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,800
Speaker 6: drones and the things that go there. So so overall,

168
00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,840
Speaker 6: the next MoU has got to cover not just us

169
00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,440
Speaker 6: in Iran and what Iran's going to do, but it's

170
00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,280
Speaker 6: got to make sure that Russia or China doesn't have

171
00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,960
Speaker 6: any capability to rearm Iran in the near future.

172
00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,640
Speaker 1: You know, I prefer not to go to knee jerk

173
00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,640
Speaker 1: alarmism or deal with cliches. But what you just said

174
00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:35,679
Speaker 1: definitely raises our level on the World War defcon scale.

175
00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,880
Speaker 1: This is this is a spreading not just geographically, but

176
00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:42,800
Speaker 1: it's become a different kind of conflict. If that sort

177
00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:44,880
Speaker 1: of thing is out in the open, where are we

178
00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:46,560
Speaker 1: in you know in that?

179
00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:48,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, would you measure great point?

180
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:48,920
Speaker 3: No?

181
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:53,400
Speaker 6: No, because that with Ukraine now entering this Iran US conflict,

182
00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,200
Speaker 6: but by by hitting Russian ships in the Caspian CEA.

183
00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,800
Speaker 6: I mean, look five years ago when this started, onever

184
00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,240
Speaker 6: thought Ukraine would able to hit a Russian anything in

185
00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:06,400
Speaker 6: the cast B and C a thousand kilometers away. The

186
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,719
Speaker 6: Caspian t is a landlocked piece of a sea that

187
00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,400
Speaker 6: borders Iran and Russia and Kazakhstan.

188
00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:14,160
Speaker 5: Those areas there.

189
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,440
Speaker 6: Russia thought they could put military assets in there and

190
00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,080
Speaker 6: have a free rant in everybody's But no NATO vehicle

191
00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:19,600
Speaker 6: ever in there.

192
00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:21,120
Speaker 5: That we have no eyes in that at all.

193
00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,600
Speaker 6: But the fact that the Ukrainians have opened up that

194
00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:27,520
Speaker 6: front now is huge. So no question this conflict is expanding.

195
00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,400
Speaker 6: You had bb and Selenski and watching yesterday looking at

196
00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,400
Speaker 6: each other, I think talking specifically about that.

197
00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 5: I think you know Israel is also part of that

198
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:34,560
Speaker 5: game as well.

199
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,520
Speaker 1: Holy Cow military analyst Mike Allions, Mike, we appreciate the

200
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,040
Speaker 1: perspective is always great stuff. Let's stay in touch.

201
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:43,480
Speaker 5: Great guys, thanks for having me.

202
00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:46,360
Speaker 1: Thanks. You know, I wasn't going to get into it.

203
00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,439
Speaker 1: I brought up earlier, but the headline New York Times

204
00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,640
Speaker 1: Iran war live updates US and Saudi air strikes dragged

205
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:54,120
Speaker 1: more countries into fighting.

206
00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,960
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, right with it, like it's something we did

207
00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,000
Speaker 4: to make this worse as opposed to Iran attacked a

208
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,560
Speaker 4: US military base. Yes, today, one of their strongest attacks yet.

209
00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:06,720
Speaker 4: Thank god we're able to shoot down all the missiles.

210
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:11,400
Speaker 4: But that and then we responded with the Saudi's help

211
00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,120
Speaker 4: because the Saudis are being attacked by the Huthis, who

212
00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:15,480
Speaker 4: do what Iran tells them to do.

213
00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,839
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, that is it. We dragged him into the fighting. Okay,

214
00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:21,640
Speaker 1: it's despicable.

215
00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:24,800
Speaker 4: Uh. Interesting perspective. I heard on a podcast the other

216
00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,080
Speaker 4: day from David French, guy who writes for The New

217
00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:33,439
Speaker 4: York Times, that there is a tendency to think sometimes

218
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:40,840
Speaker 4: that your opponents can't be dumb or myopic, or overreach

219
00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:46,000
Speaker 4: or make mistakes, and maybe the Iranians just plane misplayed

220
00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,760
Speaker 4: their hand when they started this back up, because I

221
00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,280
Speaker 4: would saying at the time, why didn't they keep this going?

222
00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,280
Speaker 4: They got the greatest deal in the world, this MoU thing,

223
00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,079
Speaker 4: and it stopped, and now they get to keep secretly

224
00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,000
Speaker 4: trying to get a nuclear weapon while they're selling oil

225
00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,280
Speaker 4: and making money. I thought they were going to drag

226
00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:05,440
Speaker 4: that out for years until there was a new president,

227
00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:07,840
Speaker 4: but no, they started the war back up again. It's

228
00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,880
Speaker 4: possible that they just made they did a dumb thing.

229
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,319
Speaker 4: If we can do dumb things, they can do dumb things.

230
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:19,719
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, absolutely true. Yeah, uh yeah. I'd have to

231
00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,440
Speaker 1: think about what they're thinking. I've been trying now for

232
00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:26,520
Speaker 1: quite a few weeks. I you know what, Now, I'll

233
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,800
Speaker 1: fall back to the argument I've made before. They have

234
00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,040
Speaker 1: decided that control of the straight of hormones is their

235
00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,679
Speaker 1: new nuclear weapon. It's their new deterrent. As long as

236
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,240
Speaker 1: we control the straight, nobody's going to mess with us

237
00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,199
Speaker 1: or attack us anymore because they so desperately need the straight,

238
00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:42,880
Speaker 1: and so we're going to fight tooth and nail to

239
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,559
Speaker 1: control the straight. That's the only thing I can come

240
00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:50,720
Speaker 1: up with. The biggest une side that is one necessary.

241
00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,559
Speaker 4: The biggest unknown is what Mike Lyons brought up at

242
00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:58,080
Speaker 4: the beginning there. To me is who's making these decisions

243
00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,160
Speaker 4: in Iran? Is it two different groups? Is it fifteen

244
00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,680
Speaker 4: different groups? And then to me the fact that, well,

245
00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:07,360
Speaker 4: one of the groups that wants to fight has their

246
00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,320
Speaker 4: finger on the button of ballistic missiles, so they must

247
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 4: be a pretty powerful group. There might be other groups

248
00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,880
Speaker 4: out there with different ideas, but they ain't got control

249
00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:17,560
Speaker 4: of the missiles.

250
00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 1: Well, and remember in a situation like that, that all

251
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,960
Speaker 1: those groups and power centers are eyeing each other suspiciously

252
00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:26,920
Speaker 1: with their hands ready to reach for their gun in

253
00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,640
Speaker 1: effect and saying yeah, yeah, sure, buddy, I agree with you, Powell.

254
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,240
Speaker 1: Let's hang together on this one there. And then they

255
00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,640
Speaker 1: go back to their separate meeting places and say, holy.

256
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:37,960
Speaker 5: Cow, those guys are nuts. We got to keep an

257
00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:38,480
Speaker 5: eye on them.

258
00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:40,840
Speaker 1: So, I mean, it's beyond volatile.

259
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:45,560
Speaker 4: And with Saudi Arabia, as Uh Peter Doucey pointed out,

260
00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:49,760
Speaker 4: with Saudi Arabia fighting on the side of Israel, which

261
00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,840
Speaker 4: because they're ally of ours, the United States, Saudi Arabian

262
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:55,560
Speaker 4: Israel fighting against our an, I mean that was Saudi

263
00:12:55,559 --> 00:13:00,040
Speaker 4: Arabia fighting on the side of Israel was unthinkable not

264
00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:00,800
Speaker 4: very long ago.

265
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:05,640
Speaker 1: Sure, yeah wow, Around and round and round she goes

266
00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:15,080
Speaker 1: where she stops, nobody knows. Armstrong and Getty