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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Date Break Weekend, our global look at

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Speaker 1: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak

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Speaker 1: anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program,

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Speaker 1: a look at the Federal Reserves Annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby in New York.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carolin London, where we're looking ahead to the

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Speaker 2: latest house priced data in the UK as the sector

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Speaker 2: breaks is for further price falls as interest rates move higher.

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Speaker 3: I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. We look inside the

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Speaker 3: black box that is China.

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Speaker 4: I'm Killie Lines in Washington, where we have our eyes

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Speaker 4: on Milwaukee ahead of the first Republican presidential primary date.

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Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: Eleve them free on New York, bloombergon ninety nine to one, Washington,

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Speaker 5: d C, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty,

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Speaker 5: San Francisco, DAV Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen

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Speaker 5: and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and

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Speaker 5: via the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Day to You, I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's

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Speaker 1: program with what to expect at the Kansas City Fed's

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Speaker 1: annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, a three day event

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Speaker 1: that officially starts this coming Thursday with a highly anticipated

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Speaker 1: address from FED chair Jerome Powell. Friday morning about ten am,

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Speaker 1: Wall Street Time, Bloomberg Surveillance co host Lisa Abramowitz, who

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Speaker 1: will be in Jackson Hole this week, joins us now

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Speaker 1: with some insight. Lisa, thank you so much for being.

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Speaker 6: Here, Tom, thank you so much for having me.

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Speaker 1: Well, the theme of this year's symposium is structural shifts

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Speaker 1: in the global economy, but for most of us, it's

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Speaker 1: all about what Jay Powell will say in those remarks

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Speaker 1: and any hints he may offer about what the FED

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Speaker 1: is thinking going into the September FOMC meeting now just

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Speaker 1: a few weeks away. So what do you think we

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Speaker 1: can expect to hear from Chairman Powell? Lisa, Well, I

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Speaker 1: think the.

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Speaker 6: Whole idea of structural shifts raises a question about whether j.

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Speaker 6: Powell is willing to come out and say inflation is

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Speaker 6: structurally going to be high in the years to come,

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Speaker 6: and whether the rate that the FED sets has to

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Speaker 6: also be higher in the years to come, and if

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Speaker 6: he says that what that does to sort of underpin

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Speaker 6: some of the moves we've seen in the bond market,

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Speaker 6: in other words, bond selling off, yields going up in

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Speaker 6: response to this expectation of higher rates for longer.

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Speaker 1: Well, it was a year ago at Jackson Hole that

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Speaker 1: Jpal warned of the pain that rising interest rates would

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Speaker 1: cause the economy and consumers. Now there's been some pain

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Speaker 1: benchmark lending rates at a twenty year high, but we've

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Speaker 1: seen surprisingly strong job growth since then. We've seen a

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Speaker 1: resilient economy, steady consistent growth, consumer spending, housing market a

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Speaker 1: little uneven, but is it better than when he projected

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Speaker 1: just a year ago.

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Speaker 6: So when he was talking about pain, he was talking

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Speaker 6: about the unemployment rate coming up. There was a belief

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Speaker 6: that there was no way to get inflation lower unless

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Speaker 6: you had unemployment tick up. People lose their jobs, and

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Speaker 6: this was the pain that they talked about that was

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Speaker 6: necessary to avoid further pain down the line in terms

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Speaker 6: of higher inflation, sort of taxing the profits, taxing the

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Speaker 6: incomes of the average American. We are still at about

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Speaker 6: three and a half percent unemployment rate about a year later.

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Speaker 6: In the employment market, that pain is not apparent. Nobody

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Speaker 6: would say that this is a difficult labor market. Quite

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Speaker 6: the opposite, and there are indications that while it is

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Speaker 6: loosening a touch, it still is relatively easy to get

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Speaker 6: a job, and wage increases are still above what they

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Speaker 6: had been pre pandemic. So as we look to this speech,

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Speaker 6: there is a real question about whether Jerome Powell will

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Speaker 6: come out and say we were wrong, we didn't need

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Speaker 6: the pain, and actually inflation is coming down just fine

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Speaker 6: because post pandemic there were normalization effects that had not

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Speaker 6: yet taken hold, And whether he's going to come out

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Speaker 6: and say, we believe in a soft landing and we

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Speaker 6: are going to be patient and hold rates where they

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Speaker 6: are for longer to gauge whether or not we are.

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Speaker 6: If we're wrong, we can raise rates further, but otherwise,

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Speaker 6: let's lean into this. That's kind of what we've heard

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Speaker 6: from other Fed officials as they've talked, let's lean in

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Speaker 6: a little bit to this idea that maybe we're getting,

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Speaker 6: you know, this mythical beast that is the soft landing

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Speaker 6: or the no landing and inflation coming in. You know,

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Speaker 6: this will be something that I hope he does address

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Speaker 6: because it was a pretty dark speech last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the markets took a tumble, right, correct.

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Speaker 6: It was sending a very clear message. The Fed came

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Speaker 6: through on what they were saying. They raised rates at

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Speaker 6: the fastest pace in modern economic history. So at what

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Speaker 6: point do they have to revamp their idea of what

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Speaker 6: restrictive means of how high rates have to go to

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Speaker 6: bring inflation back down to two percent? Or are they

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Speaker 6: going to say we don't need to get it down

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Speaker 6: to two percent so quickly, which is so some of

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Speaker 6: them are hinting, And you know, if that's the case,

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Speaker 6: we can be patient and we can watch and we

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Speaker 6: can maybe avoid that.

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Speaker 1: Well, then that year, CPI went from about nine percent

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Speaker 1: in July of twenty twenty two to last month's reading

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Speaker 1: of three point two percent. So whatever they're doing seems

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Speaker 1: to be working.

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Speaker 6: Some people would argue that the decline in inflation, which

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Speaker 6: just means prices are rising at a slower clip, is

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Speaker 6: just simply because year over year comparison numbers are too

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Speaker 6: difficult to really achieve that sort of equal nine percent level,

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Speaker 6: right that. In other words, inflation rose at a tremendous

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Speaker 6: pace mid year last year, very difficult year over year

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Speaker 6: to supersede that as such a great clip. Some people

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Speaker 6: are saying that that is fading and that you're going

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Speaker 6: to see a reacceleration in inflation NEIL data among those

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Speaker 6: other people saying that this isn't it even Fed policied

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Speaker 6: have taking effect. This is just simply a normalization a

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Speaker 6: lot of questions that they, you know, would be interesting

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Speaker 6: for them to weigh in on.

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Speaker 1: Now, the FED meets again in September, and before then

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Speaker 1: we're going to get some big data point. We have

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Speaker 1: jobs data, housing data. So what will you be looking for?

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Speaker 6: So you're asking, probably I don't want to say the

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Speaker 6: wrong person, but I will give you the traditional answer,

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Speaker 6: and then I will give you my answer. The traditional

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Speaker 6: answer is CPI is really important to see how much

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Speaker 6: inflation's coming in, and of course the job's number is

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Speaker 6: also really important to get a sense of just how

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Speaker 6: much the economy is cooling or how much the labor

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Speaker 6: market is showing signs of loosening. I would argue part

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Speaker 6: of the problem with this whole concept of data dependency

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Speaker 6: is that which data are you looking at and what

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Speaker 6: narrative are you trying to paint. Are you looking at

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Speaker 6: leading in economic indicators? Are you looking at data over

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Speaker 6: a couple of months, how many months? What's enough to

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Speaker 6: give you conviction that you've actually killed the inflation beast right?

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Speaker 6: And the reason why I ask this is because this

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Speaker 6: is supposedly a newly data dependent fed. What do they

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Speaker 6: do if inflation gets back down to three percent on

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Speaker 6: a rolling three month basis? Do they say victory? Do

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Speaker 6: they say we have enough data to have conviction that's

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Speaker 6: going down to two percent? Or do they say, wait

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Speaker 6: a second, we're also looking at the data that's over

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Speaker 6: there with what cars cost and oh yeah, over here

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Speaker 6: with how people are feeling in the University of Michigan

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Speaker 6: Consumer Sentiment Survey. It is a moving target to get

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Speaker 6: a sense of what the economic model is at a

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Speaker 6: time of incredible change, and that I think is what

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Speaker 6: people are trying to understand. What data are they looking at,

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Speaker 6: what's their framework for making these assessments at a time

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Speaker 6: where that itself is of great debate.

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Speaker 1: Now some of that data, particularly housing, which we all

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Speaker 1: look at closely. It's tough affordability at a forty year low,

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Speaker 1: because interest rates are at a twenty two year high

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Speaker 1: and the price is just unbelievable. That's got to impact everything.

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Speaker 6: Yes, and it's surprising that, given affordability is so low,

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Speaker 6: housing prices having come down more. And this goes to

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Speaker 6: the heart of the conundrum for the Federal Reserve. Three

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Speaker 6: years ago, if you would have pulled anybody off the

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Speaker 6: street and said, hey, the Fed's going to go from

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Speaker 6: zero percent to five percent in terms of the overnight rate,

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Speaker 6: mortgage rates are going to be north of seven percent.

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Speaker 6: Where do you think housing prices are going to be?

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Speaker 6: Everyone would say, oh, my goodness, they would absolutely tank.

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Speaker 6: There's no way they can continue to chug hargher. And

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Speaker 6: yet here we are. And part of it is that

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Speaker 6: because of the higher rates, people aren't selling and there's

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Speaker 6: no supply. I mean, this is one of the most

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Speaker 6: counterintuitive economies in the way that it is sort of

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Speaker 6: developed that a lot of people have seen, and it

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Speaker 6: keeps up ending economist projections. So housing will be interesting.

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Speaker 6: The tea leaves that it's sending, though again as much

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Speaker 6: mystery as they are anything else, because of the ways

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Speaker 6: people adapt to higher rates and finding workarounds.

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Speaker 1: So tell me why we wait to see which J.

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Speaker 1: Powell We're going to get a Dubvish or hawkish. What's

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Speaker 1: it like at Jackson Hole. What's it like being there?

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Speaker 6: Well, truth be told, we're up at four am local

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Speaker 6: time or three am local times, so it's usually pretty

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Speaker 6: dark and cold, and it's very cold, you know, up

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Speaker 6: in the mountains, but it's gorgeous as the sun comes

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Speaker 6: up over all of the mountains. And then there are

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Speaker 6: those on the fed and the academics who join, who

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Speaker 6: go hiking and canoeing and fishing, and they are those

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Speaker 6: who stay in the lodge and have discussions. It's really

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Speaker 6: neat to have so many thinkers together trying to hash

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Speaker 6: things out to understand.

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Speaker 7: Where we are.

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Speaker 6: And it's a retreat in the traditional American kind of sense.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that kind of atmosphere loosens these people

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Speaker 1: up the way we normally see them as so stern,

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Speaker 1: so buttoned up. Is it a little different in Wyoming?

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Speaker 1: Yes and no.

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Speaker 6: They are stayed because they have a tall task, they

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Speaker 6: have a difficult one, and they have a big job

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Speaker 6: to do. And I feel that, you know, I feel

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Speaker 6: that energy from them.

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Speaker 8: You know.

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Speaker 6: Sure, people a little bit looser, sure, but it isn't

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Speaker 6: party mode. It's not as though people you know, do

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Speaker 6: junkets where they're throwing axes and getting hammered. It's like,

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Speaker 6: you know, definitely a feeling of gravitas for the moment.

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Speaker 6: And I think that that's, you know, that's what the

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Speaker 6: atmosphere feels like. And to be fair, I mean we

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Speaker 6: are fairly isolated, about forty five minutes away from the

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Speaker 6: actual town of Jackson Hole, and you're surrounded by little

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Speaker 6: cabins or nothing and mountains. So it's not exactly a

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Speaker 6: party atmosphere conducive to you know, you know, some kind

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Speaker 6: of you know, incredible partying. This is you know, the

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Speaker 6: levity that people have going for a hike or you know,

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Speaker 6: going fishing. It's more of that nature.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Lisa. Bloomberg Surveillance co host Lisa Abramowitz will

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Speaker 1: have live special coverage from Jackson Hole of all the

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Speaker 1: key events. Plus we'll bring all the news being made

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Speaker 1: on the sidelines to you as well right here on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on Bloomberg day Break Weekend is

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Speaker 1: the real estate market in the UK in trouble. I'm

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Speaker 1: Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories

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Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in

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Speaker 1: New York. Up later in our program, Troubles mount for

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Speaker 1: the Chinese economy as the slow down deepens. We'll bring

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Speaker 1: you details, but first Britain's real estate market will be

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Speaker 1: in focused in the coming days. Home prices under pressure

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Speaker 1: from higher rates, and Bloomberg Economics is forecasting further declines

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Speaker 1: as the effects of the most recent hikes feed slowly

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Speaker 1: into the market. Any hopes of a pause from the

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Speaker 1: Bank of England have been dashed by recent hotter inflation

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Speaker 1: and wage growth data. For more, Let's head to London

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Speaker 1: and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Banker Stephen Carroll Tom like.

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Speaker 2: The weather, house prices are a topic of national conversation

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Speaker 2: in Britain. After more than a decade of steady growth,

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Speaker 2: prices are starting to come down, falling around five percent

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Speaker 2: from their peak last August. Bloomberg reckons they have another

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Speaker 2: five percent or so to fall, and we'll get fresh

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Speaker 2: data from the property website right Move in the coming days.

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Speaker 2: The Bank of England's fourteen consecutive interest rate hikes are

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Speaker 2: still feeding into the market because of the way that

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Speaker 2: UK mortgage rates are usually fixed for just two to

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Speaker 2: five years. The recent stronger than expected wage growth and

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Speaker 2: inflation data means markets now expect BOE rates to peak

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Speaker 2: around six percent, So there's still plenty of pain ahead

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Speaker 2: for the housing market. We've been discussing this with Damian Shephard,

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Speaker 2: our residential real estate reporter, and John Steppek, who writes

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Money Distilled newsletter.

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Speaker 9: Well, the market expectation though is that rates will peak

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Speaker 9: are in about six percent in March. And obviously, I

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Speaker 9: mean market expectations have changed an awful lot that she

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Speaker 9: hadn't bounced up and down. The more important, I'll say,

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Speaker 9: the BOEV is an important fact on mortgages, but it's

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Speaker 9: not the kind of most important, and it's not, you know,

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Speaker 9: the key. A lot of it depends on how keen

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Speaker 9: by are to lend as well. So on the one hand,

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Speaker 9: rates have gone up a lot. On the other hand,

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Speaker 9: banks are quite keen they right loans because they're not

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Speaker 9: doing a lot of business to the business they can do.

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Speaker 9: You know, they want to do it, but you know,

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Speaker 9: at the end of the day, the kind of base

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Speaker 9: rate is the base rate. So you're talking about interest

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Speaker 9: rates have gone from about say two percent in the

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Speaker 9: mortgage about you know, eighteen months ago and now you're

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Speaker 9: going to be paying what a five and a half percent?

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Speaker 9: I think the two year average fix is about five

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Speaker 9: point eight at the moment, so it's gone up an

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Speaker 9: awful lot and the things I don't think that we've

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Speaker 9: seen that feed through all the way to prices yet.

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Speaker 10: I want to ask your advice from whether you're looking

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Speaker 10: at two year ago for five year But we'll leave

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Speaker 10: that for maybe the end of the conversation. Let's bringing

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Speaker 10: Dimian at this point. Dimian when it comes to volumes,

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Speaker 10: because there's been some element resilience in terms of the

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Speaker 10: housing market. What's what's happening with with volumes given this

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Speaker 10: higher rates environment.

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Speaker 8: Yes, I think you know the doomsday predictions of big

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Speaker 8: house price falls. I think it's playing out relatively slowly.

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Speaker 8: But in transactions, you're seeing them a lot lower than

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Speaker 8: they were this time last year. One of John's recent

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Speaker 8: newsletters pointed me to the Ricks survey where you see

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Speaker 8: the view of estate agents and surveyors and they're pretty

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Speaker 8: down beat.

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Speaker 10: It's pretty brutal.

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Speaker 8: For real, it's pretty brutal, and that normally points to

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Speaker 8: dip in transactions because they're not getting their commission. So

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Speaker 8: I think transactions are down. And what's interesting is that's

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Speaker 8: even happening at the top end of the market. In

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Speaker 8: Prime London, we're down about twenty five percent transaction wise

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Speaker 8: in July compared to the same month a year ago.

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Speaker 8: And when you see that sort of distress happening at

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Speaker 8: the top end of the market, it makes you think,

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Speaker 8: what's happening a bit lower down?

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics expect it a peach to traft move of

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Speaker 2: ten percent in house prices. I mean, how far does

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Speaker 2: it look like we're into that and should people be

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Speaker 2: holding on for this help that prices are going to

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Speaker 2: drop much further?

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Speaker 9: Well, I mean, okay, more so far we're doing four

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Speaker 9: percent a contination weed from August twenty twenty to. The

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Speaker 9: first thing I would say there is look, if you're

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Speaker 9: buying a house, forget about trying to time the market,

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Speaker 9: because it really is a waste of your energy. There

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Speaker 9: are so many other factors that matter for buying a house,

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Speaker 9: and it's mostly your personal circumstances. And if you're an

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Speaker 9: investor that's a slightly different issue. But you know you

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Speaker 9: need somewhere to live, and if you've decided this is

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Speaker 9: right for you. The thing you focus on is making

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Speaker 9: sure you've got somewhere that a you can afford if

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Speaker 9: things go a bit pair shaped with the interest rates,

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Speaker 9: and be that you are happy to live in for

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Speaker 9: a prolonged period of time in case, you know, something

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Speaker 9: happens and you end up stuck there.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 9: So that's that's basically what you should be thinking about,

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Speaker 9: rather than worrying about whether prices are going to go

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Speaker 9: down by another five percent from here or not. That said,

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Speaker 9: you know, I struggle to see how prices won't fall

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Speaker 9: further because you know, obviously there is that massive issue,

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Speaker 9: which is the interest rates have gone up so much

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Speaker 9: that people can no longer borrow I mean, and then

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Speaker 9: and interest rates go up, buyers cannot borrow as much money,

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Speaker 9: and therefore they cannot afford the prices that sellers wanted

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Speaker 9: a year ago or six months ago. So the sellers

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Speaker 9: have to give way or they have to sit in

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Speaker 9: their houses, which is, as Damien said, one reason why

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Speaker 9: transactions have kind of fallen off at Cliff because you know,

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Speaker 9: does a stalemate going on. But the longer that continues,

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Speaker 9: the longer that you know, the more I think that

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Speaker 9: would have to resolve in favor of the buyers rather

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Speaker 9: than the sellers, because you know, if you want to

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Speaker 9: move then at some point you're going to have to

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Speaker 9: accept that. Well, people just don't have to buy in

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Speaker 9: put it anymore.

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Speaker 10: What is happening diamon on the mortgage market then just

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Speaker 10: splash that out for us, we saw a lot of

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Speaker 10: big banks pulling deals recently that that grabbed a lot

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Speaker 10: of headlines because rates were just going up, markets were

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Speaker 10: repricing on higher rates from the boa is. That started

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Speaker 10: to settle a little bit. What are you looking at

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Speaker 10: in terms of kind of two year, five year I

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Speaker 10: mean John touched on this, but but unpacking a little

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Speaker 10: bit more for us.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, So we've seen some headlines in the last couple

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Speaker 8: of weeks of lenders sort of slowly putting rates down again.

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Speaker 8: And when I say Dan, we're still essentially touching fifteen

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Speaker 8: year highs when it comes to the two year and

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Speaker 8: five year fixed. Now there's tens of thousands of remortgages

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Speaker 8: waiting to happen in September. Now those people have been

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Speaker 8: able to secure those new deals for the last six months,

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Speaker 8: but it sort of spells a period of pain coming

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Speaker 8: up at the end of the year when people are

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Speaker 8: coming off those fixed deals which would have been locked

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Speaker 8: in at much lower rates, and are now sort of

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Speaker 8: looking at mortgage rates of up to almost six percent

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Speaker 8: in terms of the average. So there's going to be

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Speaker 8: a lot of pain to happen towards the end of

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Speaker 8: this year. And despite the fact that lenders are slowly

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Speaker 8: cutting rates, we're still so much higher than we saw

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Speaker 8: during that era of cheap money. So there's a lot

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Speaker 8: of pain to come for these remortgages.

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Speaker 2: And the bitter let mortgages are a particular pinch point

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Speaker 2: that we've seen, and that's come out in some of

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Speaker 2: the recent data as well of how many landlords are

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Speaker 2: being forced to sell up because they can't afford the

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Speaker 2: increase in interest rates as well. What's the impact on

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Speaker 2: the rental markets.

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Speaker 8: Well, I mean, renters are at the sharp end of

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Speaker 8: the problems in the property market at the moment. There's

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Speaker 8: a lot of pressure on landlord finances. A lot of

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Speaker 8: them are on interest only mortgages, or the majority are,

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Speaker 8: which means that every time there's a BOE hike, they're

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Speaker 8: going to feel the pain more than those sort of

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Speaker 8: standard mortgage holders who are on fixed deals and the

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Speaker 8: only option really is to hike renters monthly bills or

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Speaker 8: sell up. We've seen an uptick in landlords selling their

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Speaker 8: properties over the last six months, and that's quite probably

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Speaker 8: in response to these high mortgage rates and the fact

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Speaker 8: that you know, they see those BOE hikes quite intensely

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Speaker 8: when they happen. But for renters, you know, they're seeing

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Speaker 8: their monthly bills go up a lot. And these are

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Speaker 8: the people that want to get on the housing ladder.

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Speaker 8: I'm a rent myself and due for a rent hike

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Speaker 8: at the end of this month. So when you start

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Speaker 8: to consider how much that takes the opportunity of getting

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Speaker 8: onto the housing ladder away from you, it's a pretty

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Speaker 8: stark reality for those renters. Yeah.

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Speaker 10: Indeed, John on by to let is buy to let

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Speaker 10: still a good investment?

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Speaker 9: No, I mean, if you're thinking this that no, No,

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Speaker 9: I mean, I imagine what's happening and this is purely conjectured,

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Speaker 9: but imagine what's happening with these buy to let landlords

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Speaker 9: who have been forced to sail up, as the one

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Speaker 9: of the problems is that they'll not then sail into

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Speaker 9: FoST tame buyers. They had actually twice sealing other cash rich,

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Speaker 9: more professional landlords.

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Speaker 2: That was Bloomberg's John Steppeck, author of the Money Distilled newsletter,

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Speaker 2: and Damian Shepard are residential real estate reporter. The one

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Speaker 2: sector of the market we didn't get a chance to

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Speaker 2: discuss with them was luxury homes. Damien has been reporting

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Speaker 2: about the discounts that sellers are having to offer on

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Speaker 2: houses worth millions of pounds as they try to attract buyers.

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Speaker 2: So perhaps an opportunity in London's market for those with

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Speaker 2: a few million to spare. I'm Stephen Carroll in London.

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Speaker 2: You can catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybreak Europe, beginning at six am in London and at

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Speaker 2: one am on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: Tom. Thank you, Stephen, and coming up on Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Break weekend to look at what's happening in China's economy.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby and this is.

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg It a active brokers

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Speaker 5: studio in New York. Bloomberg e levon free oh to Washington,

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Speaker 5: d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one

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Speaker 5: O six one to San Francisco Bloomberg nine sixteen to

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Speaker 5: the country Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to London DAB

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Speaker 5: Digital radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app

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Speaker 5: in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global look

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Speaker 1: ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week.

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Speaker 1: Troubles mount for the Chinese economy as the slowdown deepens

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Speaker 1: and a crisis bruise in the shadow banking industry. How

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Speaker 1: will the government navigate through this post COVID trough well

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Speaker 1: For more, let's head to Bloomberg Daybreak Asia's host Brian Curtis.

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Speaker 3: Tom, we look forward to China's loan prime rates out

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Speaker 3: on Monday in the coming week. After cuts in the MLF,

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Speaker 3: we can expect to see an adjustment there, probably in

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Speaker 3: the five year LPR for sure, which is a proxy

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Speaker 3: for mortgages. By many accounts, China's housing slump is worse

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Speaker 3: than the official data would suggest. New home prices have

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Speaker 3: slipped only two point four percent over the past year

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Speaker 3: or so, but the feedback that we're getting from estate

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Speaker 3: agents and data providers paint a darker picture, and so

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Speaker 3: a lot of focus is on what we might see

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Speaker 3: in terms of stimulus for the broader economy. Joining us

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Speaker 3: now for some discussion about this is Jenny Marsh, Bloomberg's

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Speaker 3: team leader for China Economy and Government. Jenny, So, we're

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Speaker 3: talking about some pretty extreme pessimism all of a sudden

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Speaker 3: here in the Chinese economy.

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Speaker 1: Is it warranted?

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Speaker 7: You know, I think the pessimism is warranted. There are

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Speaker 7: some sort of big problems facing the Chinese economy, but

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Speaker 7: I think it's really important to remember the economy still

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Speaker 7: is on track to grow by five percent this year,

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Speaker 7: and I think you know, there was a State Council

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Speaker 7: meeting this week. It was sort of a snap plenary,

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Speaker 7: which is sort of surprising and does show some concern,

437
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Speaker 7: but you know, Lee Chang's stressed at that meeting. You know,

438
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 7: the economy is in good shape to actually meet its

439
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 7: growth target this year. So while certainly, you know, growth

440
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 7: is slowing and the raw problems facing the economy, it's

441
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 7: not in bad shape.

442
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,719
Speaker 3: We've talked a lot about how international investors and perhaps

443
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 3: even domestic investors are calling for more stimulus, but we

444
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 3: did see in the South China Morning Post and they're

445
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 3: running a piece highlighting a speech that Hijin Ping gave

446
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 3: back way back in September asking for cadres to be patient,

447
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 3: to understand that China just can't simply follow the beaten path,

448
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 3: and he's really pushing for patients because that's what's needed

449
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 3: for common prosperity to deliver its you know, its fruits.

450
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: And with that type of thinking, investors may be waiting

451
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 3: for a while here.

452
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean absolutely. I mean, you know, I think

453
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 7: China does have the resources to sort of to simulate

454
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 7: the economy if it wants to. But you know, she's

455
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 7: Dremping for years now, has been trying to instill this

456
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 7: idea of high quality growth, which is sort of shifting

457
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 7: away from the properties and economic driver, lowering debt and

458
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 7: boosting high tech industries. So I think, you know, for she,

459
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 7: I think in a way, he's sort of prepared to

460
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 7: see the economy run a bit cooler if it means

461
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 7: that actually it sort of gets into better shape. And

462
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 7: I think actually people now are sort of accepting that

463
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 7: five percent growth target was a serious goal rather than

464
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 7: just some kind of flaw to be exceeded.

465
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 3: We had just in the past few days, some Bloomberg

466
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 3: data revealing that some sixty percent of outstanding Chinese offshore

467
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 3: estate bonds are labeled as distressed. So we need to

468
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 3: focus a little bit more on the property market here.

469
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 3: Sometimes when you get prices only moving down a small amount,

470
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: it doesn't tell the real story. The big drop off

471
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 3: in transactions sometimes can tell a bigger story. How deep

472
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 3: is the crisis in the property market?

473
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 7: You know, I think the thing with the property market

474
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 7: is the debt sort of facing the developers is the

475
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 7: big thing now that you know, China has to really

476
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 7: deal with. There are so many people who have sort

477
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 7: of put their life savings into homes which developers haven't

478
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 7: yet built, and now with sort of the debt problem ballooning,

479
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 7: you know, how these developers are going to sort of

480
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 7: find the financing to make good on these properties is

481
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 7: a real risk. And I think that's the thing that

482
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 7: the government is worried about. And I think, you know,

483
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 7: there are many ways in which they're prepared to see

484
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 7: things sort of go a bit cooler, but you know,

485
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 7: this is something that can sort of spill over into

486
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 7: social instability. And also then you know how this sort

487
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 7: of ripple effect through the economy, which is kind of

488
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 7: what we're seeing this week, you know, with the shadow

489
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 7: banking crisis now, where these trust funds have sort of

490
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 7: invested in the property market and this sort of ripples

491
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 7: over and then impacts some people's wealth. So I think

492
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 7: it is a big concern.

493
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 3: Yeah. One wonder is whether or not we see more

494
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 3: people out in the streets like we did see in

495
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 3: the past week in Beijing, whether or not that forces

496
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 3: the hand of policymakers. It's the type of thing that

497
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 3: was rumored back when zero COVID was.

498
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 7: Changed and exactly and I think, you know, for she,

499
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 7: despite the fact he does come from this elite, sort

500
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 7: of princely background, he sees himself as sort of a

501
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 7: champion of the people. And I think this COVID protests

502
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 7: were so shocking because he realized that the average person

503
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 7: A was angry and B had been hardest hit by

504
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 7: his policies, and I think that is worrying for him.

505
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 7: And you know, the one thing that I think the

506
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 7: Chinese public is willing to protest about is their wealth.

507
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 7: You know, if you make Chinese people poorer, they will

508
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 7: come out into the streets. And I think those protests

509
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 7: have seen as being somewhat legitimate as well. So is

510
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 7: the kind of thing the government would respond to for sure.

511
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 3: So confidence is needed not only for the business sector,

512
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 3: but for the consumer sector. And then we have a

513
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: story like we ran just at the latter part of

514
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 3: this past week, where officials have asked investment funds to

515
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 3: avoid being net sellers of equities, in other words, to

516
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 3: make sure that they're buying a little more than their selling.

517
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 3: What does that do for confidence when stories like that emanate,

518
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 3: I think.

519
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 7: It's not a good look. You know, if the government

520
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 7: has to intervene in this kind of way, then the

521
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 7: market's not running as it should be, you know. And

522
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 7: this is a problem that the government has at the moment.

523
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 7: It sort of has these mixed signals. And the one

524
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 7: hand they're saying, you know, the growth target is fine

525
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 7: and sort of the Communist Party's newspaper earlier this week

526
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 7: had an editorial saying, you know, no growth would be

527
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 7: a problem. But on the other hand, they don't want

528
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 7: the confidence to deteriorate in a way that it becomes

529
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 7: a self fulfilling loop, you know, and then things do

530
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 7: go into sort of crisis mode. I think there were

531
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 7: some banks earlier this week that downgraded their economic growth

532
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 7: forecast to below five percent. And I think if it

533
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 7: does start to look like the government's going to miss

534
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 7: the five percent target, that's also something that could really

535
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 7: motivate the government to take sort of bolder steps.

536
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 3: And we talked also at times over the past week

537
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 3: about Chinese officials deciding not to publish the unemployment numbers

538
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 3: for youth, and as you pointed out in an interview

539
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 3: that we did on Bloomberg day Break Asia, those numbers

540
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 3: from sixteen to twenty four maybe a little misleading because

541
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: of the difficulty in sort of tracking young people. But

542
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 3: it's another example of how policy sometimes will get adjusted

543
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 3: just to have the appearance of things not being as

544
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 3: bad as perhaps they look.

545
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 7: Oh yeah, exactly, I mean, you know exactly. It could

546
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 7: be that China has legitimate reasons for wanting to change

547
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 7: just methodology in capturing this data, because you know, should

548
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 7: it be capturing sixteen year old in youth unemployment data

549
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 7: if realistically their students you know, still living at home,

550
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 7: et cetera. But the way they did it, you know,

551
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 7: pausing that data in a month whereas expected to soar,

552
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 7: creates a bad impression particularly when it comes as they've

553
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 7: been restricting growing amounts of data. They used to release

554
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 7: numbers show the amount of land developers bought and the

555
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 7: price they paid. That's been missing for much part of

556
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 7: this year. You know, there's countless examples of this where

557
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 7: trying to sort of when things get a bit too

558
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 7: awkward and prickly, they just sort of stop releasing that data.

559
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 7: And you know that creates this sort of feasonter fears

560
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 7: that China is becoming more of a black box somewhere,

561
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 7: which is volatile, hard to invest in.

562
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it does raise questions about the overall data.

563
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 3: I've been here for more than thirty years, and you

564
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,959
Speaker 3: know we always had these questions about data. But for

565
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 3: the most part we say, well, the data is the data,

566
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 3: and this is what we live with. But now it's

567
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 3: very much in focus again. But I think we should

568
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 3: probably spend a little bit of time on some of

569
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 3: the positives in the Chinese economy, because, to be fair,

570
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 3: even as you suggested earlier, if we were getting up

571
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 3: around five percent growth, some things are working. So let's

572
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 3: take a minute here to look at some parts of

573
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: the Chinese economy that do seem to be producing yeah.

574
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 7: I mean, and also often when we talk about the data,

575
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 7: it's sort of like the data is weakening, the growth

576
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 7: is slowing. You know, we're not saying that there is

577
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 7: actually in decline. So you know, obviously CPI did go

578
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 7: intocline recently, but there are sort of other right spots

579
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 7: for the economy, so I think it is important to

580
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 7: sort of to focus on those.

581
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 3: Two interesting perspective. Jenny, thanks so much for joining us.

582
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: Jenny Marsh Bloomberg Team leader for China's Economy and Government.

583
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 3: I'm Brian Curtis along with Doug Chrisner. You can catch

584
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 3: us every weekday here for Bloomberg day Break Asia, beginning

585
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 3: at six am in Hong Kong and six pm on

586
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 3: Wall Street.

587
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: Tom, thank you, Brian, and coming up here on Bloomberg

588
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: day Break weekend to look at we head to the

589
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: first twenty twenty four Republican primary debate, which happens on Wednesday.

590
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

591
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top

592
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby

593
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: in New York. Wednesday marks the first debate of the

594
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four presidential season, and it's a focus on

595
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: the Republican field. For a preview, let's head to our

596
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington and Bloomberg

597
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 1: Sound On co host Kaylee.

598
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 4: Lines tom Next week is going to be a big

599
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 4: one in the world of politics for many reasons. President

600
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 4: Biden visiting Maui on Monday, the first Republican primary debate

601
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 4: on Wednesday, and then a Friday deadline for former President

602
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 4: Trump and the eighteen other co defendants charged in the

603
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 4: Georgia twenty twenty election case to voluntarily surrender in Fulton

604
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 4: count But really it's the debate that's the big one

605
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 4: we've all been waiting for, so we'll focus on that.

606
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Washington Senior editor Wendy Benjaminson is here with me

607
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 4: for more. So, Wendy, the biggest question is going to

608
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 4: surround former President Trump and will he or won't he

609
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 4: actually show up.

610
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 11: That's exactly right, and it's killy. It's something that Donald

611
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 11: Trump has just perfected in his time in political life.

612
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 11: Is no matter what else is going on, this tragic fire,

613
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 11: his own criminal endeamonds, we are all wondering on pins

614
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 11: and needles. Is he going to show up for the

615
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 11: debate or isn't he? And it will? I mean, it's

616
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 11: important whether or not you like Donald Trump. It's important

617
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 11: because the whole debate shape is different and for the

618
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 11: candidates involved, all of their prep will be different. You know,

619
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 11: candidates really spend a lot of time preparing for the debate.

620
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 11: They do role playing and all of that. And if

621
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 11: Trump is there, it's one debate. If Trump is not there,

622
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 11: it's a totally different debate.

623
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 4: Well, and if he's not who then is the punching bag?

624
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 11: That honor goes to Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida,

625
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 11: who is second in the polls, even though he is

626
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 11: thirty points below Donald Trump at this point, but he's

627
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 11: in that number two spot with Vivid Ramaswami and surprisingly

628
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 11: in some places Tim Scott nipping at his heels.

629
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 4: Well, and we learned this past week that those close

630
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,479
Speaker 4: to Rondasantis are actually advising him during the debate to

631
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 4: defend Trump and go after Ramaswami, who you were just

632
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 4: talking about, defending the person you are running against, defending

633
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 4: the front runner. How does that make sense, Wendy Well, I.

634
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 11: Struggle with this I've been struggling with this one too,

635
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 11: because it just doesn't make any sense in a normal world.

636
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 11: But what this DeSantis super pack or a firm associated

637
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 11: with DeSantis, is super pac put online so that it

638
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 11: could legally communicate with Ron DeSantis debate advice that said, yes,

639
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 11: you should defend Donald Trump, but in kind of a backhanded,

640
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 11: bless your heart kind of way. What they're saying is, well,

641
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 11: he's under four indictments. The poor man, he just is

642
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 11: so distracted he couldn't possibly focus on the country's needs.

643
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 11: He must take time to focus on himself.

644
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: You know.

645
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 11: Hearts and minds go hearts and prayers go to the

646
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 11: former president. So I guess that's kind of a left

647
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 11: handed way of defending him.

648
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 4: So with Trump as the front runner and all of

649
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 4: these candidates pretty much linguishing behind him, many of the

650
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: people who are going to be up on that stage

651
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 4: are still down in the single digits? Are there any

652
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 4: of them where if they can't, you know, make something

653
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 4: big happen at this debate, it's kind of game over.

654
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 11: It could be game over for some of these guys.

655
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 11: There is a guys, I say, Nikki Haley, the former

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00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 11: governor of South Carolina is still in it, she says,

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00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 11: to win it. So we will see. But and her

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00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 11: performance is very important in this debate. But there's another

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00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 11: debate in September, I believe, toward the end of September,

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00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 11: and there will be even tougher requirements to get on

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Speaker 11: that stage. So unless you have one of those viral

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00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 11: moments what the Desantus memo called the what was it

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00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 11: the falling off the cliff ada was the orchestra pit

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00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 11: moment where a candidate who talks about foreign policy for

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00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 11: three or four minutes will not be remembered as much

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00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 11: as the guy who falls into the orchestra pit.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is going to be a very interesting one.

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Washington Senior Editor Wendy Benjaminson, thank you so much.

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Speaker 4: And Tom all eyes are going to be on Milwaukee.

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Speaker 1: Thank you.

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Speaker 5: Kaylee.

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Speaker 1: That was Bloomberg Sound On co host Kaylee Lines, reporting

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Speaker 1: from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington, and

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Speaker 1: you can hear sound on weekdays one to three pm

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00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. And that does it for this edition

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning, five

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00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas,

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Speaker 1: and the news you need to start your day. I'm

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00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 1: Tom Buzzby. Stay with us. Top stories and global business

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Speaker 1: headlines are coming up right now