WEBVTT - Ark Invest CEO & CIO Cathie Wood Talks Bitcoin and Fed Rate Cuts

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. All right, well, let's

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<v Speaker 1>take a look right now at how crypto prices are doing.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to bring in a very special guest right now.

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<v Speaker 1>I do want to welcome our Bloomberg TV and radio

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<v Speaker 1>audiences who are joining us now. Is our convest CEO

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<v Speaker 1>and CIO, Kathy. Would Kathy good to have you on

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<v Speaker 1>the program this afternoon. I want to start right with

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and what you see as the outlook for bitcoins price.

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<v Speaker 1>In recent weeks, you've come out and said one point

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<v Speaker 1>five million dollars per bitcoin by the year twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 1>Since then, though we've seen quite a few outflows, we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen a lot of volatility. Shanali just went through that.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that still your view one point five million by

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<v Speaker 1>twenty thirty, Yes.

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<v Speaker 2>It is our view. I think right now we're in

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<v Speaker 2>a risk off period generally, and if you've been watching bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 2>it's almost been a leader in terms of the risk

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<v Speaker 2>on risk off. So I think that's what we're seeing.

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<v Speaker 2>If we look at our on chain analytics, what we

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<v Speaker 2>see is I'm sorry as to get this off. If

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<v Speaker 2>you look at our on chain analytics, which you will see,

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<v Speaker 2>is that we are in the middle of a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit more than halfway through a four year cycle. We

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<v Speaker 2>think we're still in a bull market and we believe

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<v Speaker 2>that the deregulation that we're seeing here in the United

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<v Speaker 2>States is going to be very important to institutions moving

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<v Speaker 2>into this new asset class. As to the allocators have

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<v Speaker 2>to have a point of view on this new asset class,

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<v Speaker 2>and we think by putting it in portfolios, risk adjusted

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<v Speaker 2>returns for the entire portfolio will go up.

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<v Speaker 3>One question I have to the point you're making here

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<v Speaker 3>on where the risk appetite stands around bitcoin versus other

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<v Speaker 3>asset classes. There has been a serious dip in markets, Kathy.

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<v Speaker 3>If you had to choose where you would buy the

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<v Speaker 3>dip the most, would it be in bitcoin, Tesla or Nvidia?

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<v Speaker 2>Oh my goodness. Well, we post our trades every day

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<v Speaker 2>and you'll see that we've been buying Tesla and names

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<v Speaker 2>that mimic Bitcoin and other crypto assets like Coinbase, like

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<v Speaker 2>robin Hood, taking advantage of this risk off period.

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<v Speaker 3>So what does this mean in terms of where you

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<v Speaker 3>see things going.

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<v Speaker 4>Do you see more of a selloff.

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<v Speaker 3>Before things get better in these risk assets bitcoin or otherwise?

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<v Speaker 4>How do you know that we're not at the lows.

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<v Speaker 2>So one of the things we think is going on

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<v Speaker 2>right now is and Treasury Secretary Besson today said he

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<v Speaker 2>does not believe that we're going into a recession. We

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<v Speaker 2>think we've been in a rolling recession and that we

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<v Speaker 2>are actually going to see some negative quarters here, and

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<v Speaker 2>that's because the velocity of money is collapsing as people,

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<v Speaker 2>the labor force is worried that and we're talking about federal, state,

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<v Speaker 2>and local quasi government categories like education and healthcare. There's

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of fear around job security right now. So

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<v Speaker 2>we see the saving rate going up, we see the

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<v Speaker 2>velocity of money coming down, and we do think we'll

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<v Speaker 2>see one or two negative quarters. What we believe that

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<v Speaker 2>will do is set this administration up and the fed

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<v Speaker 2>up with more degrees of freedom for tax cuts and

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps lower interest rates or at least ending quantitative tightening.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you see as the rate path for this year?

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<v Speaker 1>The Federal Reserve kicking off, it's two day policy meeting today,

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to hear from j Powell tomorrow. How many

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<v Speaker 1>rate cuts do you see happening this year?

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<v Speaker 2>Kathy, Well, we tend not to be very short term

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<v Speaker 2>in our focus. But if we're right and inflation is

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<v Speaker 2>going to surprise on the low side of expectations, we

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<v Speaker 2>wouldn't be surprised to see two or three cuts. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>if you look at an indicator called true inflation, it's

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<v Speaker 2>probably the broadest measure of inflation out there. It is

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<v Speaker 2>saying inflation is down to one point six y five percent,

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<v Speaker 2>well below where the FED is pinning it at roughly

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<v Speaker 2>the CPI's two point eight percent. And we believe that

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<v Speaker 2>the combination of actually food prices have started coming down,

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<v Speaker 2>even egg prices have started to collapse. As a matter

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<v Speaker 2>of fact, gasoline prices are coming down. We're seeing some

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<v Speaker 2>rent prices coming down. So we think inflation's going to

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<v Speaker 2>surprise on the low side of expectations for those reasons,

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<v Speaker 2>and because innovation is inherently deflationary, and our five innovation

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<v Speaker 2>platforms are all driving different kinds of deflation. Good deflation,

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<v Speaker 2>which you'll call it unit growth, but deflation nonetheless. So

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<v Speaker 2>we think the FED is going to have many more

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<v Speaker 2>degrees of freedom in the second half of this year.

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<v Speaker 2>Then most people think we could see more than the

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<v Speaker 2>number I just suggested, two to three cuts.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, Kathy and I have spoken quite a bit over

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<v Speaker 1>the last few months. You were optimistic about the Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 1>specifically with regard to disruptive technology and your thesis, but

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<v Speaker 1>also with cryptocurrency. You just spoke about the easy regulatory

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<v Speaker 1>environment around crypto. I'm curious that what you think about

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump's relationship with crypto. The Wall Street Journal reported

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<v Speaker 1>that the Trump family has held deal talks with finance

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<v Speaker 1>following that guilty exchange plea. And then also you have

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<v Speaker 1>the President getting into meme coins, you have World Liberty Financial.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you at all concerned that the Trump family is

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<v Speaker 1>too close to crypto?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think the Trump family is very supportive of crypto,

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<v Speaker 2>which is great. It's completely different from the environment we

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<v Speaker 2>had been In our view on mean coins, we are

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<v Speaker 2>not as focused on them. We would not be putting

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<v Speaker 2>them into our various private funds because and I think

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<v Speaker 2>that you know, the combination of AI and blockchain technology

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<v Speaker 2>is creating millions millions of these mean coins. We think

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<v Speaker 2>most of them are not going to be worth very much.

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<v Speaker 2>We think there are just going to be a few

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<v Speaker 2>crypto assets that will gain most of the spoils in

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<v Speaker 2>the entire ecosystem.

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<v Speaker 3>Kathy even some of the people who believe most firmly

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<v Speaker 3>in the crypto story here, they are still worried about

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<v Speaker 3>those mean coins and a lot of retail investors being

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<v Speaker 3>stuck holding the bag.

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<v Speaker 4>And another thing that's happening at the same time is you.

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<v Speaker 3>Have a lot of exchanges looking to loosen their listing standards.

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<v Speaker 4>Do you worry that this could go too far.

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<v Speaker 3>That too many coins that are going to hurt retail

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<v Speaker 3>ambassadors ultimately will be listed on too many exchanges.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think that the SEC did a very important

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<v Speaker 2>thing in declaring these meme coins not securities. What they

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<v Speaker 2>essentially were saying is we are not going to regulate them,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's buyer beware. And so if I have one

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<v Speaker 2>message for those listening who are buying mean coins, buyer beware,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think the message is loud and clear from

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<v Speaker 2>the regulators. What we think will happen is there will

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<v Speaker 2>be some heresome declines in the prices of some of

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<v Speaker 2>these meme assets, and you know, there's nothing like losing

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<v Speaker 2>money for people to learn, and they'll learn that the

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<v Speaker 2>SEC and regulators are not taking responsibility for these mean coins.

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<v Speaker 1>Buyer beware of what specifically, because you did say that

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<v Speaker 1>you believe that there are only certain crypto assets that

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<v Speaker 1>will gain the most spoils. What do buyers need to.

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<v Speaker 2>Be aware of that the millions of meme coins will

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<v Speaker 2>probably end up worthless. So, uh, when we're talking about

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<v Speaker 2>the big three, we're talking about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. The

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<v Speaker 2>use cases for those are multiplying, and we think they're

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<v Speaker 2>going to become very important in years ahead. Meme coins not.

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<v Speaker 1>So what about Trump's meme coin? Is that one of

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<v Speaker 1>the ones that you think will become worthless? Kathy?

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<v Speaker 2>You know it's interesting. Uh, the meme coins will be

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<v Speaker 2>collector's items, so digital collector's items, and so of course

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<v Speaker 2>some will withstand, uh, you know, will withstand the judgment

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<v Speaker 2>of time, and that may be one of them. That

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<v Speaker 2>our working assumption is that when you're talking about millions

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<v Speaker 2>of meme coins, you know that that's just a step

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<v Speaker 2>too far and that most of them are not going

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<v Speaker 2>to be worth very much.

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<v Speaker 3>Kathy, I want to switch gears here a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>and talk about something that I know you've been focusing

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<v Speaker 3>on a lot, tokenization. Now.

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<v Speaker 4>One question I have.

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<v Speaker 3>About this is do you think the investment community, particularly

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<v Speaker 3>the venture community, is underestimating how catastrophic this could be.

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<v Speaker 4>To their business model.

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<v Speaker 3>If you have companies that can raise money through tokens

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<v Speaker 3>rather than through traditional venture capital and go public this

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<v Speaker 3>way or list this way rather than through the traditional

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<v Speaker 3>listing process, is that a sea change coming for the

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<v Speaker 3>way that this has typically been done.

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<v Speaker 2>I actually think it's very complicated. But you know, in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of our own venture fund, and we did start

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<v Speaker 2>an Interval fund, which is a forty act fund, I

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<v Speaker 2>mean we could see tokenizing that, putting it on chain

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<v Speaker 2>and enabling many, many more people to get involved with

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<v Speaker 2>the private world. And I think other venture capital firms

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<v Speaker 2>could do much of the same thing. I do agree

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<v Speaker 2>there's going to be a lot more competition, a lot

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<v Speaker 2>more ways to fund new companies, So that is true

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<v Speaker 2>as well. So I'd say this new world's going to

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<v Speaker 2>be complicated. You know, when we hear Larry Fink of

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<v Speaker 2>Blackrock saying he wants to tokenize everything, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 2>big because it takes it takes a lot to move

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<v Speaker 2>the needle at Blackrock. So we're watching the token innovation

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<v Speaker 2>movement very closely for own purposes as well.

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<v Speaker 3>A little earlier, you said that when you look at

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<v Speaker 3>these dips, you've been trying to take advantage of them,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly in part through Coinbase and Robinhood.

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<v Speaker 4>I have a question about robin Hood in particular. Do

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<v Speaker 4>you think it looks more and.

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<v Speaker 3>More like coinbase in the future and to the extent

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<v Speaker 3>that you're buying more of it? Is it on the

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<v Speaker 3>thesis of expanded stock trading among retail investors, for election betting,

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<v Speaker 3>or expanded crypto trading.

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<v Speaker 4>What of those three things is your favorite thesis?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, our main thesis for both is we're looking for

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<v Speaker 2>the winners in the digital wallet space. Most of us

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<v Speaker 2>are not going to have many wallets. You can think

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<v Speaker 2>about this in the same way you think about credit cards.

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<v Speaker 2>Most of us don't have very many credit cards. So

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<v Speaker 2>we're looking for those winners. And you know, Robinhood and

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<v Speaker 2>Coinbase are coming at this from different angles, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>Coinbase from the crypto first angle and robin Hood from

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<v Speaker 2>more the equity end of the spectrum. Both of them

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<v Speaker 2>have to Robinhood has nailed the either interface. I think

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<v Speaker 2>Coinbase is putting a lot of effort into getting that

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<v Speaker 2>right as well. So we're looking at them as two

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<v Speaker 2>of the bigger winners.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, Kathy, revenut trouble. I'm a letter team. I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to let our team work on that. In the meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>I do want to ask you a big picture question

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<v Speaker 1>about crypto, because I think for a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>they look at these tokens as stores of value, as

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<v Speaker 1>bets that they'll go up in the future and they'll

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<v Speaker 1>be worth more and their portfolio will grow as a result.

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<v Speaker 1>When do you see use cases for crypto, maybe specifically bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 1>actually affecting us in the real world. You spoke about

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<v Speaker 1>tokenization just now, but when will we see crypto being

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<v Speaker 1>used as something else apart from just a store of value.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think what is happening with a stable coin movement,

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<v Speaker 2>which again that we're going to see deregulation and legislation

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<v Speaker 2>this year, we think, which will open the doors to

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<v Speaker 2>stable coins. So USDC that circles USDT, that's tethers, that's

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<v Speaker 2>the on ramp into defied decentralized financial services. So you're

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<v Speaker 2>already seeing lending and saving and yield harnessing taking place

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<v Speaker 2>on these ecosystems which are supported by Ethereum and Solana,

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<v Speaker 2>and of course you're seeing rapped bitcoin on ethereum as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So Bitcoin's trying to get into the game. But in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of real utility, if you go to emerging markets,

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<v Speaker 2>and I know this is not this market, but you

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<v Speaker 2>go to emerging markets where their currencies destroy purchasing power

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<v Speaker 2>and wealth with massive devaluations. So it's really their policy

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<v Speaker 2>leaders they are using bitcoin in particular, but also stable coins,

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<v Speaker 2>which is effectively the dollar as backstops to their purchasing

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<v Speaker 2>power and wealth because they've been through too many of

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<v Speaker 2>these devaluations. So I think the real utility if you're

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<v Speaker 2>looking at stable coins and bitcoin today is in the

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<v Speaker 2>emerging markets really protecting consumers purchasing power and.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Kathy, you have the great challenge of investing in

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<v Speaker 3>innovative solutions at a time where the market is nervous

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<v Speaker 3>and discounting the idea of putting more money to work

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<v Speaker 3>in innovation at the moment, and to the extent that

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<v Speaker 3>you could choose one single biggest conviction bet that you

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<v Speaker 3>would make right now, what is it and why?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we've been we have been known for our Tesla

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<v Speaker 2>call and our Bitcoin call, and those still stand as

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<v Speaker 2>two of our biggest calls. For sure, I would add

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<v Speaker 2>in the AI age platform as a service companies like

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<v Speaker 2>Pallenteer which are really enabling large enterprises to move into

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<v Speaker 2>this AI age and enjoy the efficiencies, the cost effectiveness

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<v Speaker 2>and to create products and services. Those I think are

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<v Speaker 2>going to be very big as well.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely fascinating ARC and best Kathy, would we thank you

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<v Speaker 3>so much for joining us today looking ahead of the

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<v Speaker 3>curve a little bit and some thoughts on how to

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<v Speaker 3>get into the ability to buy this dip.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you so much for your time.