WEBVTT - It Could Happen Here Weekly 156 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.440 Also media. Hey everybody, Robert Evans here, and I wanted 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:08.480 to let you know this is a compilation episode, So 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.160 every episode of the week that just happened is here 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:16.200 in one convenient and with somewhat less ads package for 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:18.360 you to listen to in a long stretch if you want. 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:20.919 If you've been listening to the episodes every day this week, 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:22.680 there's going to be nothing new here for you, but 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:24.360 you can make your own decisions. 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:30.680 Welcome to it could happen here. I'm Garrison Davis. I'm 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:33.560 joined by Mia Wong. It's a sort of a new week, 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:37.000 so let's start preparing for what these next few months 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.200 are going to look like. In the wake of Trump's 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:44.280 election victory last week, so one thing I was thinking 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:47.520 about after the results kind of rolled in and seeing 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:49.760 everyone's reactions online, you have a you know, a mix 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:53.080 of people going full doomer, some people trying to get 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:56.400 hopped up on opium, some people on copium right, just 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:59.640 trying to like find any psychological way to survive and 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:02.200 from kind of the way I like to survive is 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:05.119 just through information. So this episode, we're gonna get into 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:08.640 how we see life for trans people under a second 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.600 Trump term based on both what he's done in the 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:14.640 past what he's promised to do in the future. And 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:19.280 I know, in like the days after the election, like LGBTQ, 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:23.720 like crisis hotlines all saw a massive spike in people 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:25.840 calling in, to the point where some people were even 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:28.880 unable to reach someone. And like I understand, this is 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:32.640 a very scary moment in time. And as much as 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.440 it might not be fun to hear about how things 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:38.120 are all gonna get worse, there's also some misconceptions, and 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:40.040 I think there's also a degree of power in actually 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:45.160 being able to reasonably ascertain what things could look like 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.000 instead of just kind of feeling it out and just 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:51.040 going purely on vibes. So to kind of start, I 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:54.200 guess I'll mention some things that Trump did in his 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:58.240 first term that then got undone by Biden, which will 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:00.920 probably just end up being reinstated. We don't know these 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.640 for sure, but that's like a decent guess. So one 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:05.320 of the first things Trump did when he got into 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:08.680 office is he rolled back in Obama era memo directing 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:10.960 schools to protect trans students from discrimination. 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:14.119 Yeah, and that, by the way, discrimination protection is a 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:15.919 constant theme in this episode, it's going to get a 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:16.440 lot worse. 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:19.480 Trump later went on to ban trans people from serving 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:23.000 in the military. He also went after trans prisoners, making 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:25.440 it so that trans people usually would need to be 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:29.800 housed in prisons and jails according to their assigned sex 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.800 at birth, which is of course a very dangerous situation 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:35.720 for people incarcerated, specifically trans women. 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:39.120 Yeah, and I think there is good reason to expect 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:43.119 that treatment there is going to get worse. There's been 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:45.840 you know, we'll get into this more later in the episode, 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:49.840 but there's been a real focus on incarcerated trans people 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:51.960 getting health care. Yeah, and this is one of the 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:54.679 things that's kind of ambiguous as to how Trump could 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:56.920 go about trying to stop these people from getting healthcare. 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:01.040 So the thing about providing healthcare as people who have 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.679 been incarcerated is that they have to do it. Is 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:06.080 it is something that is required by the Constitution of 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:08.280 the United States. The Eighth Amendment holds that there is 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:11.680 a ban on cruel unusual punishment, and withholding medical care 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:15.440 is so obviously a form of cruel unusual punishment that 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:19.280 even staggeringly right wing Supreme courts have been like, no, 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:22.519 you actually have to give people medical care in prison. 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:25.440 So this is one that's going to be a little 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:27.480 bit difficult for him to do. I don't know, he 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:29.720 might find some way to do it. This is one 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.360 of the ones where there's a real potential for it 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:35.320 to get worse, and we simply do not know enough 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:38.280 about what legal strategy is going to be here to 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:39.440 say for sure. 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.600 But it's also worth mentioning, like people have had to 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:45.400 fight for access to healthcare in prison, Like it's not 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:49.200 something that comes easily, Like people have had to sue 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.080 to make sure that they get the health care that 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:54.240 they are legally required to receive. And we can just 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:58.000 assume that that process will probably be slightly more difficult 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.400 under a second Trump term like it was under a 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:03.200 first Chuck term. Then it may kind of currently be now. 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:05.680 So that's kind of one shift in how things might 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:07.360 be slightly more challenging. 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:10.720 Yeah, and I want to also mention so that analysis 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.400 and a lot of the analysis, the policy analysis that 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:16.680 I'm going to be doing going forward, is heavily indebted 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.359 to trans policy expert Corinn Green, who we've had on 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:22.479 the show a couple of times before. Amazingly, she was 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.599 one of the people who ended up working on compliance 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:29.200 for that lawsuit where Kamala Harris tried to keep transprisoners 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:32.240 from getting healthcare, and she came in and had to 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:34.760 like ensure that the state of California was doing it, 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.560 and they weren't. So that's something that has been fought for, 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.200 and that's something I mean, the trans community is small 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:41.960 enough that that is the thing that has specifically been 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:46.599 fought for by people who I consulted to make this episode. So, yeah, 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:48.839 these these rights have been dearly one and it's going 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:50.920 to be very hard to protect them. If I'm doing 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.919 something where there's there's something about policy implementation, assume that 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:58.040 I talked to Krinn about this and that's why it's accurate. 0:04:59.080 --> 0:04:59.800 And while I'm. 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:02.279 Doing this, I want to plug a couple of the 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:04.400 projects that she works on. But there's something you can 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.240 do very immediately, right now, before we get into all 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:09.159 of the terrible stuff that's going to happen, which is 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.520 you can donate to the Trans Income Project, which is 0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:14.880 the project that supports trans people and transsex workers in particular, 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.960 which is a lot of trans people and supports them 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.039 by just giving them direct cash transfers. They use some 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.840 of their work too, but yeah, and direct cash transfers 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:24.480 are one of the most effective ways that you can 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:27.600 help trans people. And if you give money to this organization, 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:29.280 they'll be links in the chat you can help do this. 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:34.520 So let's get into how things are going to get worse. Unfortunately, 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:38.159 trud administration, Congress, and state legislators have an enormous amount 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.400 of power to make everything worse. We're mostly going to 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:44.400 be focusing on what Trump and Congress can do. 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:45.400 Well. 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:46.960 We'll get into the legislator's a bit at the end. 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:50.880 So there are a lot of levers of state power 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:54.640 and sort of policy techniques that Trump can pull here 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.920 to make things worse. We're going to go roughly from 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:01.200 easiest to hardest to pull off. So the first lever 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:05.360 is federal funding. Probably the easiest place that this lever 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:08.520 can get pulled is in the education system. Trump can 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:12.480 unfortunately fairly easily implement what amounts to a don't say 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:16.120 trans ban on a federal level by threatening to withhold 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:19.080 federal funding for any school that doesn't mandate things like 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:21.800 misgendering and dead nighbing students and banned And this is 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:25.080 something he's explicitly talked about. Is like banning anyone in classes, 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:28.360 any teachers from talking about traditioning at all. He's also 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.360 threatened to have teachers who talk to students about being 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:34.480 trands like investigated by the Department of Justice. 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.640 We'll get more into Department just investigations in a bit. 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:41.240 He's also used an explicit threat, the same threat of 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:44.760 cutting state funding to stop schools some letting kids use 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.440 the right bathroom in the locker room. It's also possible 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:50.599 he will do that through Title nine. But there's a 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:52.960 lot of ways that he can do this very easily 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:56.000 that are probably not going to be able to be stopped. 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.120 And this is going to get extremely bad, very quickly. 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:03.200 Another sort of avenue that he has is I guess 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:05.560 what you'd call like the High Amendment for trans people. 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:07.880 So for people who don't know what the High Amendment is, 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:12.600 the High Amendment is a writer that bans federal spending 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:13.120 on abortion. 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:14.680 It's been like modified. 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.400 It's not like the one percent band that he used 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:19.280 to be because now there's like exceptions for rape and 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.240 incests and stuff life of their parents too. But it 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:24.880 is a very very effective Republican tool. It's actually also 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:28.160 Joe Biden helped implement that that's been used to limit 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:33.120 access to abortion, and we already have seen the start 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:36.160 of these kind of things even under Biden. There was 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:38.520 a version of this of a kind of high amendment 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:40.600 for trans healthcare that was an attempt to get the 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:43.680 DoD to not be able to spend money on trans healthcare. 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:47.800 That's already a provision that's been tacked onto one of 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:50.200 the most recent spending bills that went through because Joe 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:53.920 Manchin like defected and joined the Republicans to get it 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:58.040 onto one of the spending omnibuses, and that was again 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:00.000 just for the Department of Defense. We are very likely 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.440 to see versions of these attached to every single spending 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:06.880 bill that explicitly say that government funding cannot be used 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:09.960 for trans health care. It will definitely be used to 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:11.960 do to say you can't use it for trans healthcare 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:15.200 for minors. It is possible this will be expanded to adults. 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:15.920 We don't know. 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.840 It depends how far there's sort of anti trans I 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:24.600 don't know the derangement goes, but that is a real danger. 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:28.840 And this can also be expanded to refusing to allow 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:31.880 Medicare and Medicaid to pay for anything at a clinic 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.199 that does trans healthcare, even if the money isn't funding 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:38.960 the healthcare. That's also possible. That would be absolutely catastrophic 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:42.280 for the medical system. Even just a government band that 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.800 prevents things like Medicare and Medicaid and like government health 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:49.920 care from covering transition in the first place is a disaster. 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:56.000 But if they go further and prevent clinics who provide 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:59.880 trans health care from taking Medicare and Medicaid, that's bad 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:01.920 enough that I think that is in terms of what 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:03.680 is the thing we most need to be worried about 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:05.520 right now, I think that's the worst possible thing that 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:07.040 can happen very quickly, because. 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:09.480 It could basically pressure medical clinics into refusing to offer 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:11.960 any kind of gender affirming care because it would threaten 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:14.320 their just base ability to operate as a medical clinic 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:16.679 taking Medicare, Medicaid, et cetera. 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:18.839 Yeah, this is the thing I talked about a bit 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:20.840 in our Agenda forty seven episode on this. But this 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:25.000 is this effectually creates like Sophie's choice for these clinics, 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:29.080 because it's either you treat trans people who have private insurance, right, 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:32.720 or you can treat like people who have who are 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.600 a medicare medicaid. So it's like, okay, either either you 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:39.000 let trans people get fucked or you let like every 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:42.600 poor person or old person in the US like eat shit. 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:45.839 So there aren't good options here for that. 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:48.000 How do we think something like this would be implemented? 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:49.880 Like is this an executive order or does this have 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:50.880 to go through Congress? 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:53.400 So that's the other part about this that's very bad. 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.640 The way that this is being done is these things 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:59.960 are attaches to what are called writers to spending bills. 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:02.400 So any spending bill Republicans put in front of the House, 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.440 they will have this like provision in it, right, And 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:08.959 the really big problem for us is that spending bills 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.960 usually get passed now out of this thing called Senate reconciliation. 0:10:13.600 --> 0:10:15.720 And the thing about Senate reconciliation is that you can't 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:19.720 fill a buster them, so these can just get rammed 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:22.599 through really really quickly, and there's not going to be 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.640 enough opposition in the House to stop it either. So 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:27.959 I mean, some of this stuff probably could be done 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:30.040 with executive orders, but it's quite possible if you won't 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.000 even need that because it can just be rammed through 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:32.800 in spending bills. 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:36.080 Which is a little bit harder to undo. From my understanding. 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.000 Yeah, yeah, executive orders can be overturned by the next guy, 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:41.720 whereas getting these provisions out is going to take a 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:44.480 long time. Yeah, you know, this is another issue that 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.240 we have. The map for the Democrats retaking the Senate 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:50.480 is terrible in twenty twenty six and it's bad in 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:53.640 twenty twenty eight two. So I still don't think this 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:55.840 is being recorded Friday. I don't think we still actually 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:58.000 know what their majority in the Senate's going to be. 0:10:58.040 --> 0:10:58.720 But it's a lot. 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.280 And also we know that Joe Manchin is willing to 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:04.160 vote for stuff like this because he's done it already, 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:10.680 So this is probably coming quickly. It basically depends on 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:17.200 how good their policy people are, which who knows. But yeah, 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:18.680 this is not going to be difficult for them to 0:11:18.679 --> 0:11:20.760 implement and it is going to be extremely damaging. 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.040 Well, that was a lot. Let's take a little bit 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:26.560 of a break and will we come back, take another 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:29.120 look into what life could be like under a second 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:39.760 Trump term. 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:41.000 We are back. 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:44.079 So the threat to trans people does not only come 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:48.040 from Congress and the President. One of the things that's 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.960 almost certainly going to happen very soon is there is 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:54.520 currently a case about a trans healthcare band from Miners 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.160 and Tennessee in front of the Supreme Court. It's called 0:11:57.200 --> 0:12:01.839 Scrmetti versus us. We are almost certainly going to lose this. 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:06.880 Not losing this requires a bunch of extremely unlikely things happening, 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:10.959 and this is very, very bad. What Scrimmetti versus Us 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.960 is probably going to cost us is trans people as 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:17.280 a group being protected by the fourteenth Amendment. So the 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.680 fourteenth Amendment is supposed to provide everyone equal protection under 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.000 the law. The way this has been interpreted is that 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.480 if you're passing a law that directly targets a group, 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:27.680 there are certain levels of scrutiny that have to be 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:31.559 applied to it to see whether or not it's discriminatory 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.840 and can be allowed to proceed. What's probably going to 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:36.640 happen here is that trans people aren't going to be 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:39.400 held as protected at all, which means that the fourteenth 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.640 Amendment will not protect us from things that are unbelievably 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:46.760 obviously discriminatory, like healthcare bands for youth, which is again 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.880 literally the same procedures that are happening for trans children 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.520 are done to sis children. All the time and it's fine. Yeah, 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.040 so this is very obviously discrimination. We're probably going to 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.120 lose it because the Supreme Court is full of a 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.840 bunch of the worst people in the entire world. It 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:04.680 is technically possible that Gorstch defects and drags someone else 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.679 over and we get a thing that says we have 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:11.560 intermediate scrutiny. That would be the best win we could 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.440 possibly get on this. It's extremely it's unlikely. We're probably 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.600 going to lose it. And this is also going to 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:21.400 overturn the landmark case Bostock versus Clayton County, which is 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:23.839 the one that rules that you can't discriminate against trans 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:25.720 people based on gener identity. 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:27.400 Specifically for like employers as well. 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.560 Yeah, for employees. Is specifically for employers. So what we 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:32.760 could very well be about to lose. And again, this 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.160 is another thing that's very high likelihood because this case 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:36.599 is they're ready in front of the Supreme Court, and 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.240 the Supreme Court hates us. We could be about to 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:42.480 lose employment discrimination protections now. To be fair, and I 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:44.560 think most trans people who are listening to the show 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:46.800 know this. I don't know how many SIS people understand this, 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:51.000 but the level of trans employment discrimination in the workplace 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:52.559 is unbelievable. 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:56.400 Yeah, this isn't really enforced at all. Uh, yeah, it's 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:57.080 pretty bad. 0:13:57.480 --> 0:14:00.240 It is something that right now is technically possible to you, 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.320 and you're not allowed to just straight up say it. 0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:05.800 But you know, like there is a reason that the 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.800 unemployment rate for trans people is like three times as high. No, 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:10.320 it's actually I think's yeah, I think it's about three 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.240 times as high as the rate for SIS people. Right, 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.480 we don't have great data. There's some data from the 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:18.840 Translant Student Survey from twenty twenty two, but the full 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.600 report isn't out yet. But what I will say is 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:23.880 that the trans level of unemployment unemployment right now in 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:25.800 the US is very low. The level of unemployment for 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:29.360 trans people is nineteen thirty six, great depression levels. And 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.520 this is before we lose these these protections. It is 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.560 also worth noting this will not overturn like state level 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:37.600 of protections, So if you're in a state that like 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:41.120 has specifically banned it, you will have some more recourse. 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:43.880 But we're losing fourteenth MEDIT protections on. 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:49.120 A federal level would basically allow explicit employment discrimination. Yeah, 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:50.640 if someone's trans. 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:54.200 It's possible that case goes like marginally better for us 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:56.360 and that doesn't happen, But it's hard to see how 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.520 that would happen. The lawyers I talked to you will 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:02.360 say this is this is not a legal opinion, but 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.160 they seem to think that this is how this would go, 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.840 and the policy people seem to think going the same way. 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.400 There's some other things that can happen. Trump has been 0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:13.480 promising We're going to get federal investigations into clinics that 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:17.760 provide gender affirming care, also into hospitals. You know, there's 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.440 gonna be enormous legal harassment. This has already been happening 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:22.360 on a sort of lower level, but from sort of 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:25.880 individual lawsuits and state attorney generals. But this is going 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:27.840 to be happening with the full backing of the Department 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:29.920 of Justice. You can look at like what Texas has 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:33.000 been doing the past four years. Yeah, with them investigating 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:36.600 not as clinics, but also like parents of trans kids. Yeah, parents, 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:40.480 like individual health care providers. He was also pledging to 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:44.400 investigate like the companies that make hormones, So that's bad. 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:46.680 There's also the Department of Justice has been making some 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.560 incredibly half assed attempts to try to go after some 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:50.720 of the healthcare bands. 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:52.360 That's all going to stop. They're just going to give 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:52.800 all that up. 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.000 There's also a bunch of bills that could be passed 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.760 depending on the Democrats' willingness to filibuster them. So Trump 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:03.320 has called for a ban of trans people like playing 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.720 sports that correspond with their gender, and that may well 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:10.720 pass because the Democrats are cowards and the Republicans are 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:13.480 going to have a large majority in the Senate. Trump 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:16.240 has also pushed for a ban on gender firming care 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:20.960 for minors, including Harts homo replacement therapy, which is like 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:23.680 one of the main ways you transition and puberty blockers. 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:25.880 That one is less likely to make it through the Senate, 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:29.880 but it also again depends on how cowardly the Democrats 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:31.800 are and how much they decide to cave. And this 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:33.600 is the moment that there is another thing that you 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:35.480 can do and you should start doing this right now, 0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:38.000 which is this is the moment right now to start 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:41.480 pressuring your congress person about this, like start calling them, 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:45.680 start pressuring them, and start making sure that they don't 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:48.360 fully sort of turn on trans rights. This is just 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.160 something that you can concretely do right now, because these 0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:54.600 people need to understand that there are consequences for turning 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:56.760 on trans people, because if there aren't consequences, they are 0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.640 going to do it now. Trump has also called for 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.040 a ban on recognizing trans people at a federal level 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:06.440 on like all identification documents things like that also would 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:09.960 outlaw non binary markings on passports and stuff. That would 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.480 also be really bad. That's also something that probably requires 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:17.000 a law. And that's again and everything. Call your conresspeople, 0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:20.560 like pressure them now, start doing it now, do not 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.160 wait until he's actually in office. 0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:24.399 And like, all of these issues are things that public 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:27.960 opinion has been shifting on greatly the past like two years. Yeah, 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.000 these things used to be much more kind of seen 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:31.879 as like, yeah, this like makes sense, this is like 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.439 a humane and reasonable effort to include a group of 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:39.280 discriminated people. And now we see in a growing number 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:41.600 a majority of people pull on this issue do not 0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:45.639 support these measures. They don't support having the ability to 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.520 have your gender marker match your gener identity. They don't 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:51.600 support your ability to participate in public life. And that 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:56.160 is the result of an intentional misinformation campaign and essentially 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:59.520 like a hate crime campaign and a hate speech campaign 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:01.720 that has been going on for the past like four 0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:04.560 years because Republicans knew that they already lost the battle 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:07.480 on like regular gay people, so they moved on to 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:10.520 the next subjugated class. And that's something we've talked about 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.680 for a while. And this is like something that is shifting. 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:16.560 So you have to actually verbally express to to your 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:18.840 representatives that this is something that you actually do care about. 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:21.399 Otherwise they will look at these like general polls and 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.919 be like, oh, I guess this isn't popular anymore, and 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:25.840 shift and cave on it. They need to know that 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.640 their constituents actually do care about these things if we 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:30.880 want these things to not get passed through Congress. 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:34.119 Yeah, and it's also worth mentioning that a lot of 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.280 this people just don't know anything about about trans people 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:39.960 because we're like one percent of the population right now. 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:42.439 Part of the reason the Republican campaign is working is 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.480 that people are susceptible to being told things about trans 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:47.880 people and believing them. But that also works for us. Yeah, right, 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:49.560 it goes both ways. Part of what's been going on 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:52.280 is that, like we haven't had the kind of giant 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:56.199 advocacy push outside of some trans people. But we have 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:59.280 no money, we have no resources, and we need there 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.960 to actually be large, widespread and vocal public support because 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:06.360 otherwise all of the stuff that's happening here is going 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:09.400 to get even worse. And you know the word when 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.920 we could get very well, the worst case scenario, things 0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:14.879 which are full bands for adults. That's the thing that 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:18.800 they could pass through Congress, but right now they don't 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:22.199 have the support for it. Yeah, However, Comma ascarising is 0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:24.480 going to get to there are signs that the Democratic 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.000 Party is deciding to throw us under the bus. 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:31.760 Yeah, not as steadfast on this issue then what we 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:32.560 would probably prefer. 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:33.200 Yeah. 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:35.160 And on the state level, I guess the important thing 0:19:35.160 --> 0:19:37.080 for the state level is that once we lose Fourteenth 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:39.119 Amendment protections, it's going to be so much harder for 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:41.640 there to be legal challenges to any of this. And 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:44.760 this means we're going to see a proliferation of these 0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:48.639 state level bands on healthcare, even sort of marching ahead 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:50.720 of where the federal government is. 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:53.400 Let's have our last break and when we come back. 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.199 We will close the episode by discussing Trump's focus on 0:19:56.240 --> 0:20:00.119 trans issues during his campaign, as well as things that 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:02.880 you can start doing like right now to get ready 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:11.040 and prepare for these next four years. 0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:16.719 All right, we are back. 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:20.640 During the last few months of Trump's campaign, his team 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:23.280 shifted away from the key issues of the economy and 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:27.760 immigration in their national election ad efforts, and specifically honed 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.760 in on trans issues as a wedge against Kamala Harris 0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:35.199 and the Democrats in general, the infamous Kamala Is for 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:39.400 They Them ad being the prime example of this. According 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:42.560 to a PBS report, from October seventh to October twentieth, 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:46.240 Trump's campaign and pro Trump groups spent an estimated thirty 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:51.040 nine million dollars on anti trans ads, and Trump ended 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.119 up spending more money on these ads than on housing, immigration, 0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:57.960 and the economy combined. This was his main focus in 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.639 his final ad push, a specific after the September debate. 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:06.440 A new report from journalist Casey Parks, using data from 0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:10.040 Ad Impact, shows that Republicans spent nearly two hundred and 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:14.240 fifteen million dollars on anti trans ads this election cycle. 0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:17.399 And this figure does not include cable or streaming ads. 0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:21.280 This is just network TV. And these anti trans ads 0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:25.840 weren't just focused on the presidential election. Other Republicans in 0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:29.160 various Senate races picked up on the success of these 0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:34.040 anti trans ads and used them in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Now, 0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:37.600 initially some thought that maybe this would be a repeat 0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:41.000 of twenty twenty two, Maybe this extra focus on this 0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:43.879 small group of the population wouldn't lead to kind of 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:47.280 electoral successes, pointing to how a similar strategy failed during 0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:50.560 the twenty twenty two midterms. But then election day came 0:21:50.600 --> 0:21:52.960 and we saw that there was a degree of success 0:21:53.080 --> 0:21:55.000 or at least these did not hurt them in any 0:21:55.040 --> 0:21:58.399 substantial way, and Republicans won many of the Senate races 0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:01.719 on anti trans campaign messages. I'm going to quote from 0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:03.600 an article in The New York Times called it Trump 0:22:03.600 --> 0:22:07.000 and the Republicans bet big on anti trans ads across 0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.280 the country. Quote the kamala is for they them add 0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:13.080 was rated as one of his campaigns more effective in 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:17.479 September in some Democratic testing. According to results reviewed by 0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:21.480 The Times, Republican strategists said the focus on transunter women 0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:24.480 and girls in sports had been particularly effective with a 0:22:24.560 --> 0:22:27.440 key group of voters the party had hemorrhaged support from 0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:31.359 in recent years, college educated women. One of the things 0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:33.520 you see in the focus groups is that the moms 0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:37.439 get really visibly angry on this issue, said Jim McLaughlin, 0:22:37.600 --> 0:22:40.320 a Republican polster who works for mister Trump and other 0:22:40.400 --> 0:22:44.080 Republican campaigns. Quote it's a fairness issue. They don't want 0:22:44.080 --> 0:22:46.640 their daughters to lose a scholarship and they don't want 0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:50.240 them to get hurt unquote. The enthusiasm for this issue 0:22:50.359 --> 0:22:52.639 kind of lines up with what me, Sophie, and Roberts 0:22:52.680 --> 0:22:56.600 saw at the RNC, where anti trans statements consistently got 0:22:56.640 --> 0:23:01.240 the loudest applause. Though some state level Democrats Representative Steth 0:23:01.320 --> 0:23:04.880 Moulton of Massachusetts and Tom Soulsey of New York, as 0:23:04.880 --> 0:23:07.600 well as some other DNZ advisors, have jumped onto the 0:23:07.600 --> 0:23:10.760 blame game, citing trans issues as if not the reason, 0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:14.320 then a reason Democrats just completely fumble this election, claiming 0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:16.320 that the Democratic Party is far to the left on 0:23:16.359 --> 0:23:19.760 trans issues and the average American. But largely the Dems 0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:22.399 were not out campaigning for trans people like Loud and 0:23:22.440 --> 0:23:26.720 Proud the selection cycle, oh trans issues were intentionally pushed 0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:30.000 off stage at the DNC, and the Harris campaign tried 0:23:30.040 --> 0:23:33.440 their hardest to sidestep this issue, giving vague non answers 0:23:33.440 --> 0:23:35.640 and whether trans people should be able to receive healthcare 0:23:35.960 --> 0:23:38.639 by just stating that her administration would quote unquote follow 0:23:38.680 --> 0:23:43.240 the law and invoking States rights type framing. And I 0:23:43.280 --> 0:23:45.439 see this as just a massive failure to confront an 0:23:45.440 --> 0:23:50.000 issue that Republicans have like slingshot into the spotlight, and 0:23:50.240 --> 0:23:53.240 it shows a failure to do things because it's like 0:23:53.320 --> 0:23:56.000 the right thing to do, not just necessarily for some 0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:57.679 like electoral gain. 0:23:58.000 --> 0:23:59.960 Well even even on a strategic level. 0:24:00.480 --> 0:24:02.880 Right, we saw this with border policy too, right exactly, 0:24:02.880 --> 0:24:06.520 Democrats adopted their Republican's sport policy and then they lost exactly. 0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:08.920 And it's like, yeah, if you just agree or refuse 0:24:09.040 --> 0:24:11.359 to contest them on their core issues, then that's what 0:24:11.400 --> 0:24:13.679 people are going to believe because people have a tendency 0:24:13.680 --> 0:24:16.160 to believe what their elites are telling them. You can't 0:24:16.160 --> 0:24:19.399 defeat these people's ideology by just agreeing with it or 0:24:19.760 --> 0:24:21.080 start stepping out of the way of it. 0:24:21.200 --> 0:24:22.119 That just lets it spread. 0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:24.040 And I think this is going to be proven to 0:24:24.080 --> 0:24:26.480 be like the biggest mistake Democrats made this election cycle, 0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:29.840 like you can't just cede territory to the right based 0:24:29.920 --> 0:24:32.960 on a massive disinformation campaign which is exactly what the 0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:35.720 Democrats did on immigration and crime, and they showed a 0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:38.560 willingness to do that on trans rights. Now, even if 0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:41.320 some of these people that Democrats included claim to not 0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:45.480 like hate trans people individually, that they have allowed questions 0:24:45.520 --> 0:24:48.600 around access to bathrooms, sports and government fund and healthcare 0:24:48.800 --> 0:24:51.680 to be used as a wedge against trans rights as 0:24:51.680 --> 0:24:54.119 a whole, and the ability for trans people to be 0:24:54.160 --> 0:24:57.760 able to exist in public life to close. I think 0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:00.760 we should have just a brief discussion on what people 0:25:00.840 --> 0:25:03.280 can do specifically during these next seventy five days and 0:25:03.320 --> 0:25:05.920 even in the months after, like what people can do 0:25:06.240 --> 0:25:08.880 to prepare for some of the worst aspects of this, 0:25:09.040 --> 0:25:12.240 specifically on the healthcare front. Now, we did a series 0:25:12.280 --> 0:25:15.920 of episodes a few years ago on DIYHRT. There are 0:25:15.960 --> 0:25:19.000 both pharmaceutical and home brewed options for homones that can 0:25:19.040 --> 0:25:23.040 be ordered online. Now since that episode, home brewed distribution 0:25:23.119 --> 0:25:26.320 networks have spread throughout the United States. There's probably one 0:25:26.480 --> 0:25:30.320 already in whatever city is closest to you. Now, access 0:25:30.320 --> 0:25:34.000 to those networks does require a degree of, like in 0:25:34.200 --> 0:25:37.919 person community, and I know that can be challenging. You 0:25:37.960 --> 0:25:41.119 can certainly do organizing online on discord. You can certainly 0:25:41.160 --> 0:25:43.359 find trans people on discord that can help you learn 0:25:43.400 --> 0:25:46.560 where pharmaceutical grade estrogen can be ordered online. But that 0:25:46.640 --> 0:25:50.120 type of online organizing will only get more dangerous under 0:25:50.160 --> 0:25:52.840 a Trump term, especially if the legal status of these 0:25:52.880 --> 0:25:57.280 hormones change. So I will always emphasize the importance of 0:25:57.400 --> 0:26:01.360 in person community. And it might just like learning if 0:26:01.359 --> 0:26:03.880 there's a trans band in the city you're in, going 0:26:03.920 --> 0:26:07.680 to some shows, learning where trans people go, Where trans 0:26:07.680 --> 0:26:09.760 people gather, is their community picnics? 0:26:09.880 --> 0:26:12.479 Is their book fares? Is their zine fares? Like? 0:26:12.800 --> 0:26:15.840 Is there like even gaming conventions? Right, just places that 0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:19.439 there might be a number of trans people gathered and 0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:22.480 talk to them about being trans, talk to them about 0:26:22.480 --> 0:26:24.920 the issues that you're facing. It might take a few 0:26:24.960 --> 0:26:27.600 months to gain trust and become friends, but that's just 0:26:27.640 --> 0:26:32.199 how friendships work anyway, and that can be challenging. And 0:26:32.280 --> 0:26:34.240 there may not be something like this in a city 0:26:34.280 --> 0:26:36.959 super close to you, which is why online connections are useful, 0:26:37.080 --> 0:26:40.240 and sometimes it might require a little bit of travel. Now, 0:26:40.280 --> 0:26:43.480 what we can do, at least right now is stockpile 0:26:43.520 --> 0:26:46.280 things in case things get harder to maintain or produce. 0:26:46.680 --> 0:26:49.159 There's multiple forms of these hormones that can be stored, 0:26:49.560 --> 0:26:51.800 and I do believe that there will be some form 0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:54.399 of home brewed option that will most likely continue to 0:26:54.440 --> 0:26:58.720 exist even if prescribed hormones get restricted. And part of 0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:01.520 why I emphasize kind of doing this in person as well, 0:27:01.920 --> 0:27:03.720 especially if you're a minor, that will just get more 0:27:03.800 --> 0:27:07.560 dangerous to do under a second Trump term. I will 0:27:07.560 --> 0:27:12.240 point people to the website DIYHRT dot wiki. It's currently 0:27:12.280 --> 0:27:15.560 the best information source on dosing testing, how to find 0:27:15.560 --> 0:27:21.160 supplies and options for ordering hormones now, because changing legal 0:27:21.240 --> 0:27:25.159 paperwork on the federal or state level often takes a while. 0:27:25.800 --> 0:27:28.639 If that's something that you want to do, now is 0:27:28.720 --> 0:27:31.919 the time to start. There's still seventy days until Trump 0:27:32.080 --> 0:27:35.040 takes office and some of these changes could start being 0:27:35.040 --> 0:27:40.800 put into effect. You should absolutely apply for a passport now. 0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:45.000 Depending on many variables, it may be advantageous to have 0:27:45.080 --> 0:27:48.680 your legal name and gender marker match whatever you more 0:27:48.800 --> 0:27:53.199 easily pass as, rather than your gender identity. Now I 0:27:53.320 --> 0:27:56.639 understand why this is less than ideal and if you 0:27:56.760 --> 0:27:59.399 think that this might just inhibit your transition progress and 0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:02.159 push you further back into the closet, especially if the 0:28:02.200 --> 0:28:05.119 option of changing your gender marker on federal documents just 0:28:05.160 --> 0:28:08.480 like goes away during the next four years, then people 0:28:08.520 --> 0:28:12.040 should just go ahead and get that stuff changed asap. 0:28:12.720 --> 0:28:16.639 But it's something to reflect on and consider. Lastly, I 0:28:16.680 --> 0:28:20.440 want to mention something about personal safety. Over the course 0:28:20.480 --> 0:28:23.199 of the past week, I've heard from friends around the 0:28:23.240 --> 0:28:29.600 country experiencing a spike in anti queer and misogynistic violence. Chuds, 0:28:29.760 --> 0:28:33.560 frat boys, and just asshole men have been way more 0:28:33.560 --> 0:28:36.840 willing to just to openly harass queer people out in public. 0:28:37.280 --> 0:28:39.440 Some of this I think is just Trump supporters quote 0:28:39.480 --> 0:28:43.719 unquote celebrating the election results. But once Trump takes office, 0:28:43.880 --> 0:28:47.400 I expect this type of harassment to start slowly increasing 0:28:47.840 --> 0:28:51.080 as truds feel like they can get away with more 0:28:51.160 --> 0:28:55.520 just open misogyny, homophobia, racism, etc. I know a lot 0:28:55.520 --> 0:28:59.360 of people have been talking about or posting about buying firearms, 0:28:59.760 --> 0:29:02.640 and firearms is one of the last things you should 0:29:02.640 --> 0:29:05.160 buy in a panic. This is a very careful and 0:29:05.200 --> 0:29:07.800 calculated choice for you to make about your own personal safety, 0:29:07.840 --> 0:29:10.720 your own mental health, your own willingness to carry and 0:29:10.800 --> 0:29:13.720 train with the gun. This is its own topic, but 0:29:14.040 --> 0:29:18.000 I do recommend buying and carrying pepper jel for basically 0:29:18.280 --> 0:29:21.640 all queer people and women. It's a great self defense tool. 0:29:22.000 --> 0:29:24.720 It spreads less than pepper spray, so you're going to 0:29:24.760 --> 0:29:28.080 be less likely to just spray yourself. Saber is a 0:29:28.120 --> 0:29:32.800 good brand. Buy it for yourself, buy it for your friends. Uh, Mia, 0:29:32.960 --> 0:29:34.240 do you have anything else you want to add? 0:29:34.800 --> 0:29:34.960 Yeah? 0:29:35.040 --> 0:29:37.840 Yeah, two things. One, people have been asking for book Macrumentation, 0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:39.040 so we're giving them to you. 0:29:39.160 --> 0:29:40.640 We're only given to you to you at the end 0:29:40.680 --> 0:29:42.400 of the episodes. You got to stay around. 0:29:42.960 --> 0:29:45.280 And I think something that's good to read in this 0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:49.600 moment on trans issues is Julius Serrano's book Whipping Girl. 0:29:49.920 --> 0:29:52.040 I've had Julius Runno on the show before. She is 0:29:52.240 --> 0:29:55.800 one of the most important, I mean, honestly like feminist 0:29:55.880 --> 0:29:59.520 theorists of the last of this century. And there's a 0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:02.920 new addition, Whipping Girl, that's come out recently, and it 0:30:03.000 --> 0:30:05.720 is it is one of the fundamental sort of texts 0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:09.880 to understand the experience to transfend people in this country 0:30:10.480 --> 0:30:12.880 and why things have gotten the way that they've gotten. 0:30:13.440 --> 0:30:17.120 So yeah, go go read Whipping Girl. It's spectacular. And 0:30:17.160 --> 0:30:18.920 then I want to plug one more thing that you 0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:21.120 can give money to. So I mean again, another very 0:30:21.120 --> 0:30:23.280 effective way for CIS people to support trans people is 0:30:23.320 --> 0:30:25.840 give them money, because all of us are unbelievably broke 0:30:26.280 --> 0:30:28.960 like all of the time. Another place you can give 0:30:28.960 --> 0:30:31.800 money to is the Trans Justice Funding Project. We'll have 0:30:31.880 --> 0:30:33.800 that in this too. When they base, they give out 0:30:33.840 --> 0:30:37.360 grants to other just like transgroups who are doing organizing 0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:40.640 or doing other kinds of sort of support work, mutual land, 0:30:40.600 --> 0:30:42.840 et cetera, et cetera. So that's money that goes directly 0:30:42.840 --> 0:30:43.640 to trans people. 0:30:44.360 --> 0:30:44.719 Yeah. 0:30:44.760 --> 0:30:47.680 And then obviously, as we've said, this is the forces 0:30:47.760 --> 0:30:51.320 people part of the episode. After our after our four 0:30:51.360 --> 0:30:55.880 trans people part, go call your congress people, Go pressure them, 0:30:55.960 --> 0:30:59.800 Go show up to their offices and make it extremely 0:31:00.320 --> 0:31:02.600 that it is unacceptable to write off trans people and 0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:05.080 that they need to be willing to successfully stop these 0:31:05.120 --> 0:31:07.440 writers and successfully do whatever they can to chant out 0:31:07.520 --> 0:31:10.280 the works to make sure that the Republicans cannot pass 0:31:10.320 --> 0:31:13.400 bills that will harm us even more than the things 0:31:13.400 --> 0:31:14.560 that they're already going to do with. 0:31:34.800 --> 0:31:38.000 Hello everyone, and welcome back to it could happen here. 0:31:38.360 --> 0:31:41.560 I'm Robert Evans, and you know, along with all of 0:31:42.000 --> 0:31:45.320 their correspondents, I'm looking forward to what we can expect 0:31:45.440 --> 0:31:48.680 from the Trump administration, which is a broad and far 0:31:48.760 --> 0:31:52.960 reaching question given the ambitions that Trump and the others 0:31:52.960 --> 0:31:56.320 who I think will be involved in this new administration 0:31:56.600 --> 0:32:00.520 have already expressed. And the elevator pitch theme of today's 0:32:00.600 --> 0:32:03.640 episode is what's going to happen in Gaza once Trump 0:32:03.720 --> 0:32:08.040 is president again? Will things get better or worse? Obviously 0:32:08.240 --> 0:32:12.080 the expectation is worse. I think that's where certainly the 0:32:12.200 --> 0:32:15.040 safe money goes if you're putting money on this. But 0:32:15.600 --> 0:32:18.880 the short answer to that question is no, one fully 0:32:19.080 --> 0:32:21.680 knows now. The first thing that I did when trying 0:32:21.720 --> 0:32:23.920 to prepare for this episode was tracked down as many 0:32:24.040 --> 0:32:27.080 articles as I could that included interviews with Gazin's about 0:32:27.120 --> 0:32:32.400 their expectations, and those expectations were largely negative, but a 0:32:32.400 --> 0:32:35.959 little more mixed than you might expect. A Reuter's reporter 0:32:36.120 --> 0:32:40.400 interviewed Abu Osama, living in Conunis in the southern Gaza strip. 0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:44.600 He called Trump's election a quote new catastrophe in the 0:32:44.640 --> 0:32:49.560 history of the Palestinian people, adding despite the destruction, death 0:32:49.600 --> 0:32:52.480 and displacement that we have witnessed, what is coming will 0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:57.400 be more difficult. It will be politically devastating. This essentially 0:32:57.440 --> 0:33:00.560 agrees with what a Palistinian from Batel lahis in the 0:33:00.600 --> 0:33:05.360 Northern Gaza Strip, Ahmed Jerad told Al Jazeera quote. Trump 0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:08.959 and Netanyahu are an evil alliance against the Palestinians, and 0:33:09.000 --> 0:33:11.480 our fate will be very difficult, not only in the 0:33:11.480 --> 0:33:15.080 fateful issues, but also in our daily concerns. This is 0:33:15.120 --> 0:33:18.360 a sad day for Palestinians. Trump will endorse Netnah who's 0:33:18.400 --> 0:33:21.440 free hand regarding the possibility of the return of settlements 0:33:21.440 --> 0:33:24.160 to the Gaza Strip and even the displacement of large 0:33:24.240 --> 0:33:27.400 numbers of Palestinians outside it. We hope to return to 0:33:27.440 --> 0:33:30.320 the north, and now all of our hopes have been shattered, 0:33:31.320 --> 0:33:36.000 and unfortunately Jerad's fears here have been immediately proven well founded. 0:33:36.400 --> 0:33:38.920 On November sixth, as the rest of the world reeled 0:33:38.920 --> 0:33:43.920 from Trump's victory, IDF Brigadier General Itzig Kohen told Israeli 0:33:44.000 --> 0:33:47.360 reporters there is no intention of allowing the residents of 0:33:47.400 --> 0:33:51.360 the Northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes. Humanitarian 0:33:51.400 --> 0:33:53.600 aid would only be allowed to enter through the south. 0:33:54.080 --> 0:33:57.400 His justification was that there are no more civilians in 0:33:57.440 --> 0:34:02.920 the north reporting from the Guardian interviewed several international humanitarian 0:34:03.040 --> 0:34:06.320 law experts, and the members of that likely dying field 0:34:06.640 --> 0:34:10.520 described Israeli actions here as war crimes. The forcible transfer 0:34:10.560 --> 0:34:13.520 of civilian populations and the use of food as a 0:34:13.520 --> 0:34:17.600 weapon are supposed to be banned. Despite this, we can 0:34:17.640 --> 0:34:21.160 safely assume that there will be no serious consequences as 0:34:21.160 --> 0:34:23.920 a result of any of this. Now, the timing of 0:34:23.920 --> 0:34:27.239 this announcement was predominant, and it is not unreasonable to 0:34:27.280 --> 0:34:30.080 suggest that Israel might not have been as bold as 0:34:30.080 --> 0:34:34.200 they're currently being if Harris had won Another Gosen seventy 0:34:34.280 --> 0:34:37.680 year old doctor Zakia Hilal told Al Jazeera it is 0:34:37.840 --> 0:34:41.720 true that American administrations do not differ in supporting Israel, 0:34:42.160 --> 0:34:44.720 but some are more severe and more intense than others, 0:34:44.960 --> 0:34:49.080 like Trump. You can find numerous gosins expressing feelings along 0:34:49.120 --> 0:34:51.440 these lines if you read long enough, But you will 0:34:51.480 --> 0:34:54.120 also find a number who feel like what's coming won't 0:34:54.160 --> 0:34:57.160 be worse, or at least won't be very different from 0:34:57.160 --> 0:35:00.920 what they've already endured. Jehad Malaka, a researcher at the 0:35:00.960 --> 0:35:04.480 Palestinian Planning Center, told Al Jazeera he does not expect 0:35:04.480 --> 0:35:08.240 Trump's administration to be wildly different from Biden's In this regard, 0:35:08.960 --> 0:35:12.200 Trump uses rough tools and Biden and the Democrats resort 0:35:12.239 --> 0:35:14.640 to soft tools, but the politics. 0:35:14.120 --> 0:35:14.680 Are the same. 0:35:15.160 --> 0:35:17.520 Biden did not make any decision in favor of the 0:35:17.560 --> 0:35:20.960 Palestinians and was unable to achieve a ceasefire. He did 0:35:20.960 --> 0:35:23.880 not change the reality of the decisions of his predecessor 0:35:23.920 --> 0:35:27.360 Trump at all. The positions of the two administrations regarding 0:35:27.400 --> 0:35:30.080 Israel are the same and identical, and they put its 0:35:30.120 --> 0:35:35.239 interests above all other considerations. You can also find some 0:35:35.400 --> 0:35:38.640 Gosins who see a sliver of hope in Trump's new administration. 0:35:39.080 --> 0:35:42.080 Reuter spoke with the owner of a grocery store in Gaza, 0:35:42.160 --> 0:35:46.160 Khaled Desuso, who told their reporter, I think Donald Trump, 0:35:46.160 --> 0:35:48.759 if he wins, he promised the Muslim people in America 0:35:48.800 --> 0:35:51.600 to stop the war in Gaza. We hope that happens, 0:35:52.719 --> 0:35:56.040 and it's not necessarily absurd to hope that there may 0:35:56.080 --> 0:35:59.600 be some positive effects here. Trump has said many horrible 0:35:59.640 --> 0:36:03.040 things about Palestinians, obviously, several weeks before the election, he 0:36:03.080 --> 0:36:05.080 had a phone call with net Nyahoo that may have 0:36:05.120 --> 0:36:08.319 been a viihilation of the Logan Act, although laws don't 0:36:08.320 --> 0:36:12.080 really matter anymore. Here's howslate dot Com summarized what happened 0:36:12.120 --> 0:36:15.239 in that call. According to Trump, the Israeli leaders said 0:36:15.280 --> 0:36:18.279 he disregarded President Joe Biden's warning to keep troops out 0:36:18.280 --> 0:36:21.120 of Rafa in southern Gaza, a decision that resulted in 0:36:21.120 --> 0:36:23.920 the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a shootout 0:36:23.920 --> 0:36:26.839 in the area. Trump also said nat Nyahu asked him 0:36:26.880 --> 0:36:29.280 for advice on how to respond to Iran's missile attack 0:36:29.320 --> 0:36:32.400 on Israel, to which Trump said he responded, do whatever 0:36:32.440 --> 0:36:35.759 you have to do. Now, that's a dire sign, and 0:36:35.800 --> 0:36:38.360 it is impossible to imagine that a new Trump regime 0:36:38.640 --> 0:36:42.360 won't restart the sale in shipment of specific munitions that 0:36:42.440 --> 0:36:46.680 Biden banned for export to Israel this July. Biden halted 0:36:46.719 --> 0:36:49.360 the shipment of two thousand pound bombs to the IDF 0:36:49.440 --> 0:36:52.520 because quote, they cannot be used in Gaza or any 0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:57.359 populated area without causing great human tragedy and damage. Now, 0:36:57.440 --> 0:36:59.680 the fact that munitions like this will very likely be 0:36:59.760 --> 0:37:02.520 used is hideous, and I think it's extremely unlikely that 0:37:02.600 --> 0:37:05.600 we do not see an immediate rise in the death toll. 0:37:06.160 --> 0:37:10.320 But at the same time, Israel's extant acts have caused 0:37:10.360 --> 0:37:13.520 great human tragedy and damage. The munitions they have have 0:37:13.600 --> 0:37:16.759 already been responsible for calamitous death and destruction on a 0:37:16.760 --> 0:37:20.560 fairly wide scale. So where's the cause for any optimism 0:37:20.600 --> 0:37:24.480 on this at all? It comes from Trump's own self interest. 0:37:24.880 --> 0:37:29.400 As Khalide Desuso noted, Trump ran promising to end wars. 0:37:29.600 --> 0:37:32.719 This means he does have some vested interest, even if 0:37:32.760 --> 0:37:35.719 only in his own ego, in forcing NETANYAHUO to draw 0:37:35.760 --> 0:37:38.200 things to a close in short order. And there is 0:37:38.239 --> 0:37:41.240 indeed reporting that Trump has told net Nyahu to wrap 0:37:41.320 --> 0:37:44.960 things up by January so that he can take office 0:37:45.080 --> 0:37:48.719 with an end to the conflict and ideally use that 0:37:48.880 --> 0:37:51.680 as a way to kind of bolster his early popularity 0:37:51.760 --> 0:37:55.000 and gain some political capital for the other sweeping changes 0:37:55.040 --> 0:37:55.759 he wants to make. 0:37:55.880 --> 0:37:56.120 Now. 0:37:56.480 --> 0:37:59.080 The fact that Trump is pushing net Nyahu on ending 0:37:59.160 --> 0:38:02.480 things in January doesn't mean a sudden, peaceful ceasefire. For 0:38:02.520 --> 0:38:04.920 one thing, nothing is going to happen in the months 0:38:04.920 --> 0:38:08.200 between then and now to reduce the level of bloodshed, 0:38:08.440 --> 0:38:12.200 and almost every likely theoretical ends with Israel massively escalating 0:38:12.280 --> 0:38:15.440 violence and using new, more destructive weapons before bringing an 0:38:15.520 --> 0:38:18.560 end to their campaign. But it does mean that Trump 0:38:18.719 --> 0:38:21.279 might be able to pressure bb to bring things to 0:38:21.360 --> 0:38:24.120 an end. There's a good article on this in the BBC. 0:38:24.640 --> 0:38:28.560 No guarantees Trump will give net Yahoo all he wants now. 0:38:28.600 --> 0:38:32.640 In that piece, Mid East correspondent Lucy Williamson writes, Donald 0:38:32.680 --> 0:38:35.399 Trump's first term in office was exemplary as far as 0:38:35.440 --> 0:38:39.080 Israel is concerned. Said Michael Oran, a former Israeli ambassador 0:38:39.080 --> 0:38:41.799 to the United States, The hope is that he'll revisit that. 0:38:42.080 --> 0:38:44.200 We have to be very clear sighted about who Donald 0:38:44.200 --> 0:38:47.560 Trump is and what he stands for. Firstly, he said, 0:38:47.719 --> 0:38:50.920 the former president doesn't like wars, seeing them as expensive. 0:38:51.239 --> 0:38:54.200 Trump has urged Israel to finish the war in Gaza quickly. 0:38:54.560 --> 0:38:57.320 He's also not a big fan of israel settlements in 0:38:57.360 --> 0:39:00.399 the occupied West Bank, has set Ambassador Oran, and has 0:39:00.400 --> 0:39:03.560 opposed the wishes of some Israeli leaders to annex parts 0:39:03.560 --> 0:39:06.520 of it. Both of these policies could put him in 0:39:06.560 --> 0:39:10.360 conflict with far right parties in Netanyahu's current governing coalition, 0:39:10.640 --> 0:39:12.560 who have threatened to bring down the government if the 0:39:12.560 --> 0:39:16.719 Prime Minister pursues policies they reject. Michael Orrin believes net 0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:19.040 Nyaho will need to take a different approach with the 0:39:19.080 --> 0:39:22.799 incoming president. If Donald Trump comes to office in January 0:39:22.840 --> 0:39:25.200 and says, Okay, you have a week to finish the war, 0:39:25.560 --> 0:39:29.000 net Yahoo is going to have to respect that. And 0:39:29.080 --> 0:39:33.160 we'll continue talking about what this means. But first, here's samants. 0:39:43.400 --> 0:39:46.480 So it is possible that we will see a quick 0:39:46.680 --> 0:39:50.120 end to the violence in January, and perhaps a quicker 0:39:50.120 --> 0:39:52.560 one than we would have seen under Harris. That's the 0:39:52.600 --> 0:39:55.600 best case scenario and not necessarily the likeliest one, and 0:39:55.800 --> 0:39:59.560 I should re emphasize here that best case scenario still 0:39:59.600 --> 0:40:02.640 means that we will probably see a massive escalation in 0:40:02.800 --> 0:40:06.120 violence as the IDF seeks to force more people out 0:40:06.160 --> 0:40:09.520 of northern Gaza and in the conflict, with a large 0:40:09.520 --> 0:40:13.560 slice of Gaza permanently wrenched from Palestinian control and handed 0:40:13.560 --> 0:40:17.360 over to Israeli settlers, there is no version of what 0:40:17.480 --> 0:40:21.839 comes next that is not a calamity to the Palestinian people. Now, 0:40:21.840 --> 0:40:24.440 the signs from within the Israeli government on what a 0:40:24.520 --> 0:40:28.759 new Trump administration means for them are certainly bullish, you 0:40:28.800 --> 0:40:31.880 could say, and reading these tea leaves provides very little 0:40:31.920 --> 0:40:35.640 fuel for optimism. It Mar ben Vere, the Minister of 0:40:35.760 --> 0:40:40.240 National Security, posted yes with several less's and an emoji 0:40:40.280 --> 0:40:42.960 of a flexed bicep in a post on social media. 0:40:43.239 --> 0:40:45.960 When the first good return started coming in for Trump 0:40:46.360 --> 0:40:48.479 on the day of the election itself, and a sign 0:40:48.520 --> 0:40:51.960 of confidence in the coming results, bib netanyahuo fired his 0:40:52.080 --> 0:40:55.479 Defense minister Jove Gallant, who had been his primary point 0:40:55.480 --> 0:40:58.799 of contact with the Biden administration, and it's harder to 0:40:58.840 --> 0:41:01.360 imagine a much more direct sign of what he wants 0:41:01.400 --> 0:41:02.480 to do than that. 0:41:03.400 --> 0:41:03.560 Now. 0:41:03.600 --> 0:41:06.960 I've struggled to present the sweep of possible results of this, 0:41:07.200 --> 0:41:10.480 and it bears reiterating that the bulk of predictions from 0:41:10.520 --> 0:41:13.600 Gazans who are plugged into the politics of the region 0:41:14.000 --> 0:41:19.080 are incredibly negative. Ahmed Fayad, an independent researcher in Israeli 0:41:19.160 --> 0:41:22.880 affairs who currently resides in central Gaza, told Al Jazeera 0:41:23.000 --> 0:41:27.200 that he felt Trump's influence would be entirely negative, adding 0:41:27.200 --> 0:41:30.640 that Trump was a quote more dominating figure than Biden, 0:41:31.000 --> 0:41:34.120 and his influence would allow net Nyahu to quote conquer 0:41:34.200 --> 0:41:38.960 Gaza quote amidst the weakened Palestinian front and absence of 0:41:39.000 --> 0:41:43.400 any Arab unity and solidarity, the whole Palestinian cause faces 0:41:43.440 --> 0:41:47.400 its worst threat yet. Now what does bear watching is 0:41:47.440 --> 0:41:50.360 the degree to which Biebe might face threats from his 0:41:50.480 --> 0:41:54.200 own right flank. Netniahu himself is almost certainly on the 0:41:54.239 --> 0:41:56.680 side of doing what will please his patron Trump all 0:41:56.719 --> 0:41:59.920 the more, and that would be forcing a quick, violent 0:42:00.200 --> 0:42:02.799 end to the fighting and taking Northern Gaza as the 0:42:02.800 --> 0:42:06.280 spoils of war. But this might bring him into conflict 0:42:06.320 --> 0:42:09.360 with radicals on his own side, who can't be placated 0:42:09.400 --> 0:42:12.480 by anything but what they would see as total victory. 0:42:13.120 --> 0:42:15.560 In the event net Nyahu feels pushed, it is not 0:42:15.719 --> 0:42:18.600 impossible that he will wind up in conflict with Trump. 0:42:19.080 --> 0:42:22.359 This has happened before, as BB's sense of self preservation 0:42:22.760 --> 0:42:26.040 led him to take actions that enraged Trump. The best 0:42:26.120 --> 0:42:28.759 example of this took place in the immediate aftermath of 0:42:28.800 --> 0:42:31.399 the twenty twenty election. If you want to think back 0:42:31.440 --> 0:42:34.600 to those happier days, b B was again the first 0:42:34.600 --> 0:42:38.640 world leader to call and offer Biden congratulations on his victory, 0:42:38.680 --> 0:42:41.120 as he was with Trump. This is a habit for 0:42:41.280 --> 0:42:43.919 the man, who, among other things, is an expert at 0:42:43.920 --> 0:42:48.040 toadying for favor with US leaders. Trump was livid, and 0:42:48.120 --> 0:42:51.560 he spoke out about this, telling Israeli journalist Barak Ravid 0:42:51.800 --> 0:42:54.520 that he believed that he had saved Israel from destruction, 0:42:54.680 --> 0:42:57.280 and in response, net Nyahoo had stabbed him in the back. 0:42:57.760 --> 0:42:59.840 I'm to quote now from an article in the BBC 0:42:59.840 --> 0:43:04.440 six Mister Trump accused mister net Yahoo of congratulating too 0:43:04.560 --> 0:43:07.600 quickly mister Trump's successor Joe Biden on winning the twenty 0:43:07.600 --> 0:43:11.239 twenty US election. Mister Trump disputed the election result, though 0:43:11.239 --> 0:43:14.480 his claims were never upheld. The first person who congratulated 0:43:14.560 --> 0:43:17.160 Joe Biden was Bebe, the man that I did more 0:43:17.200 --> 0:43:19.640 for than any other person I dealt with. Bibe could 0:43:19.640 --> 0:43:22.640 have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake. He 0:43:22.760 --> 0:43:25.600 was very early, mister Trump said, like earlier than most. 0:43:25.800 --> 0:43:27.120 I haven't spoken to him since. 0:43:27.440 --> 0:43:27.920 Fuck him. 0:43:28.320 --> 0:43:31.040 I actually don't know that he said fuck The actual 0:43:31.080 --> 0:43:34.920 text of the article says expletive him. But I'm assuming 0:43:35.000 --> 0:43:37.879 he said fuck him. I think that's probably a fair 0:43:37.920 --> 0:43:41.760 assumption for me to make. Now, some evidence does suggest 0:43:41.880 --> 0:43:44.719 that Trump and Bebe don't personally get along, as that 0:43:44.840 --> 0:43:47.880 quote I just read implies, certainly not to the degree 0:43:47.880 --> 0:43:51.720 that net Yahou and Biden once did once. I should 0:43:51.719 --> 0:43:54.280 say this may hinge partly on the fact that Trump 0:43:54.360 --> 0:43:57.920 really only believes in himself and his own benefit, whereas 0:43:58.040 --> 0:44:01.000 Joe Biden was a strong and committed bl in Israel 0:44:01.040 --> 0:44:03.800 and was willing to take actions against his own political 0:44:03.840 --> 0:44:06.960 self interest in furtherance of that belief. And we've all 0:44:07.000 --> 0:44:11.160 seen where those actions got him. Just last December, Trump 0:44:11.200 --> 0:44:14.400 attacked Netnyahoo at an early campaign rally in New York, 0:44:14.719 --> 0:44:17.960 saying bb had quote let us down by pulling Israeli 0:44:17.960 --> 0:44:21.719 support for the operation that killed Iranian General Cossam Solomani 0:44:22.000 --> 0:44:25.560 at the last minute. He also criticized the Israeli leader 0:44:25.640 --> 0:44:30.440 for not being prepared for Hermas's October seventh attack. Now, 0:44:30.480 --> 0:44:33.160 I want to be clear here that these divisions between 0:44:33.200 --> 0:44:37.600 both men are blisteringly unlikely to mean anything that approaches 0:44:37.680 --> 0:44:41.080 relief for the Palestinian people, at least in the near term. 0:44:41.360 --> 0:44:44.480 The immediate and probably long term future of Gaza is 0:44:44.640 --> 0:44:47.720 much bleaker today than it was a few weeks ago. 0:44:47.840 --> 0:44:52.080 The Guardian recently published an article interviewing former CIA director 0:44:52.160 --> 0:44:55.799 and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. He predicted Trump would give 0:44:55.840 --> 0:44:58.920 Bibe a blank check for aggression which might invite the 0:44:58.960 --> 0:45:02.120 possibility of open war with Iran. Now that's the kind 0:45:02.120 --> 0:45:04.399 of thing that can lead one to panic, especially when 0:45:04.480 --> 0:45:07.160 you assume a guy like Panetta is privy to a 0:45:07.200 --> 0:45:10.160 lot of inside information. We may not be, but I'm 0:45:10.200 --> 0:45:12.879 actually not really sure that he is. I don't see 0:45:12.880 --> 0:45:15.759 any evidence from this article that Panetta is speaking from 0:45:15.880 --> 0:45:20.680 direct personal knowledge about extant plans to carry out an attack. Instead, 0:45:20.760 --> 0:45:23.319 he quoted Trump's description of the call that Trump had 0:45:23.320 --> 0:45:26.560 had with BB before the election, telling net, yahou do 0:45:26.680 --> 0:45:30.680 whatever you have to do. So Leon may just be 0:45:30.719 --> 0:45:33.279 working from the same information the rest of us have 0:45:33.480 --> 0:45:37.080 and coming to a somewhat different conclusion. I'm not as 0:45:37.120 --> 0:45:39.880 sure as he is about an imminent attack on Iran 0:45:40.080 --> 0:45:43.080 because Trump campaigned heavily on ending wars, and while I 0:45:43.080 --> 0:45:45.600 don't credit Trump is a particularly honest man, I do 0:45:45.680 --> 0:45:49.920 think he sees his personal benefit right now in being 0:45:49.960 --> 0:45:52.880 able to portray himself as a peacemaker, in part because 0:45:52.960 --> 0:45:55.239 he has so much domestically he wants to do, and 0:45:55.280 --> 0:45:58.320 so much else internationally he wants to do. Right, Expending 0:45:58.360 --> 0:46:01.000 a bunch of political capital d with the kinds of 0:46:01.120 --> 0:46:04.200 protests and unrest and even anger from his base that 0:46:04.280 --> 0:46:07.200 a war with Iran would mean, especially once it gets 0:46:07.239 --> 0:46:09.640 bogged down in the kind of violence that would come 0:46:09.680 --> 0:46:12.520 with that, He may not and likely doesn't see that 0:46:12.600 --> 0:46:15.759 as being of benefit to him. Now, that doesn't mean 0:46:15.760 --> 0:46:18.560 it will never happen. It doesn't mean his calculus won't change. 0:46:18.640 --> 0:46:22.480 I do foresee some situations in which Trump might decide 0:46:22.760 --> 0:46:25.600 that his personal benefit is in there being a wider 0:46:25.640 --> 0:46:29.320 ground conflict with Iran that US forces get drawn into. 0:46:29.719 --> 0:46:32.120 You know, we'll talk a little bit about some of 0:46:32.160 --> 0:46:35.799 the possibilities around this, and we're getting outside of the 0:46:35.840 --> 0:46:39.040 realm of kind of established fact at this point, but 0:46:39.440 --> 0:46:41.759 I do think it's worth considering some of this. But 0:46:41.880 --> 0:46:55.440 first consider these ads. So, when we talk about the 0:46:55.440 --> 0:46:59.480 possibility of a ground conflict with Iran starting between Israel 0:46:59.560 --> 0:47:02.720 and ira but almost inevitably drawing in more US forces, 0:47:03.320 --> 0:47:06.680 the known unknowns and unknown knowns in this situation are 0:47:06.719 --> 0:47:10.239 pretty staggering. If I let myself analyze every possibility, my 0:47:10.280 --> 0:47:13.319 mind can go to some dark places. Trump sees war 0:47:13.360 --> 0:47:15.960 with Iran as a negative, now, I'm quite sure, But 0:47:16.040 --> 0:47:17.960 how would he feel about it in the wake of, say, 0:47:18.000 --> 0:47:20.440 a Musk centered plan to in the Federal Reserve and 0:47:20.520 --> 0:47:23.920 tank the dollar in the wake of the changes that 0:47:24.000 --> 0:47:27.320 all of his immigration policies would make on the price 0:47:27.360 --> 0:47:30.839 of food, the Pression era levels of inflation and unemployment 0:47:30.920 --> 0:47:33.960 returning to the United States, and the attendant social unrest 0:47:34.040 --> 0:47:36.759 that that would cause. If Americans find themselves on the 0:47:36.840 --> 0:47:39.719 verge of food rights, perhaps Trump would gamble on war 0:47:39.840 --> 0:47:45.160 being the best distraction he could manage. It's certainly not impossible. Now, 0:47:45.200 --> 0:47:47.400 I don't know how useful it is to bury myself 0:47:47.400 --> 0:47:51.439 in theoreticals and probabilities. The known threats are dire enough, 0:47:51.480 --> 0:47:54.320 and they demand full time awareness in order to attempt 0:47:54.400 --> 0:47:58.080 to counter and endure. So instead of spiraling, I'm going 0:47:58.160 --> 0:48:00.680 to leave you today with the words of another Gazan, 0:48:01.040 --> 0:48:01.840 Mohammed R. 0:48:02.000 --> 0:48:02.360 Mausch. 0:48:02.920 --> 0:48:06.000 He's a journalist who wrote an article for MSNBC right 0:48:06.040 --> 0:48:09.160 after the election titled My family and I Survived the 0:48:09.160 --> 0:48:12.680 War in Gaza. We know Trump's America won't save us, 0:48:13.480 --> 0:48:17.080 and here's Mohammed for us. The election of Donald Trump 0:48:17.160 --> 0:48:19.440 isn't just a blip on the political radar or a 0:48:19.480 --> 0:48:23.120 shift in foreign policy. It's a challenge to sustain existence. 0:48:23.120 --> 0:48:26.040 While the world seems intent on erasing us. It's about 0:48:26.080 --> 0:48:29.239 surviving seventy seven years under occupation and over a year 0:48:29.320 --> 0:48:33.560 of ongoing genocide, the very genocide I barely survived last December, 0:48:33.640 --> 0:48:36.360 when my family and I, including my elderly parents and 0:48:36.440 --> 0:48:38.680 three year old son, were buried under the rubble of 0:48:38.680 --> 0:48:41.080 what was once our home after it was struck by 0:48:41.080 --> 0:48:45.320 an Israeli fired US missile. The date December seventh, twenty 0:48:45.360 --> 0:48:48.680 twenty three. Our bones were crushed between layers of concrete 0:48:48.719 --> 0:48:51.040 and twisted metal as we spent hours in the dark, 0:48:51.440 --> 0:48:54.400 buried together and praying to be pulled out in one piece. 0:48:55.000 --> 0:48:57.319 The trauma of that night, in both its physical and 0:48:57.320 --> 0:49:00.520 emotional toll, of my son's small, fragile hand and clinging 0:49:00.560 --> 0:49:03.600 to mind, comes back to me now as Trump prepares 0:49:03.640 --> 0:49:08.240 to take power once more. I've seen how American political 0:49:08.320 --> 0:49:10.879 leader's toy with the idea of change. How they dress 0:49:10.960 --> 0:49:14.360 up their campaigns with grand ideas about peace and justice, 0:49:14.760 --> 0:49:18.560 yet each president brushes off our reality. Barack Obama promised 0:49:18.560 --> 0:49:20.799 hope and change we could believe in, yet we got 0:49:20.840 --> 0:49:24.080 more bombs. Joe Biden offered a different approach, pledging and 0:49:24.160 --> 0:49:27.040 yielding support for Israel, leaving US to live through even 0:49:27.040 --> 0:49:31.800 more horror. Vice President Kamala Harris's niceties included no concrete 0:49:31.840 --> 0:49:35.840 promises to protect Palestinians, but she did pledge to continue 0:49:35.840 --> 0:49:39.680 financial support for Israel, and Trump's blundness as he promises 0:49:39.760 --> 0:49:43.000 to come back swinging reminds us not to hold out. 0:49:42.760 --> 0:49:44.880 Hope for change. 0:49:45.080 --> 0:49:49.680 So, you know, not much optimism here, but I do 0:49:49.760 --> 0:49:54.319 really recommend reading that article that MSNBC published. You know, 0:49:54.520 --> 0:49:59.440 it's bleak, but important, especially given the fact that you know, 0:49:59.520 --> 0:50:01.640 we may be soon entering a world where it would 0:50:01.680 --> 0:50:05.680 be harder for people like Muhammad to express their feelings 0:50:05.680 --> 0:50:09.200 and their truth to an audience. I don't think it's 0:50:09.320 --> 0:50:12.200 unlikely that a clamp down is coming on some of 0:50:12.239 --> 0:50:14.680 these things. It's hard to say how extensive it will be, 0:50:15.600 --> 0:50:19.560 but there's a threat that Israel and their backers see, 0:50:19.640 --> 0:50:22.960 and the way that public sympathy has built so quickly 0:50:23.040 --> 0:50:25.440 for Gaza in a way that wasn't present with a 0:50:25.480 --> 0:50:30.320 lot of previous stages of violence between Israel and Gaza. 0:50:30.480 --> 0:50:32.560 Right now, this is the result of a lot of 0:50:32.640 --> 0:50:36.160 videos spreading on social media. It's the result on voices 0:50:36.200 --> 0:50:39.000 from Gaza getting out and getting to people in a 0:50:39.000 --> 0:50:42.319 way they really hadn't before. And so one thing that 0:50:42.400 --> 0:50:45.640 does worry me greatly when I think about what's going 0:50:45.680 --> 0:50:48.520 to happen in Gaza under President Trump is not just 0:50:48.560 --> 0:50:50.760 what's going to happen to the people living there right now, 0:50:51.080 --> 0:50:53.000 but what's going to happen to their ability to tell 0:50:53.040 --> 0:50:55.879 their story to get information out to the rest of us. 0:50:56.600 --> 0:50:59.440 That is very much an open question at this moment, 0:50:59.600 --> 0:51:02.480 but it's certainly one that should be on your lips, 0:51:03.040 --> 0:51:05.399 and it's one that we will be investigating here at 0:51:05.400 --> 0:51:08.160 Cool Zone as long as we're able to continue doing 0:51:08.200 --> 0:51:11.719 that until next time. I'm Robert Evans. We'll be back 0:51:11.760 --> 0:51:16.840 tomorrow and every other day reporting on you know the world. 0:51:35.760 --> 0:51:39.040 Welcome to It Happened Here, a podcast that's about trade policy. 0:51:39.120 --> 0:51:40.879 Now I'm your host, Bia Wong. 0:51:41.080 --> 0:51:43.480 This is amazingly going to be the fun one of 0:51:43.520 --> 0:51:44.640 all of these episodes. 0:51:45.040 --> 0:51:49.040 It's about working tariffs. So it's gonna be a long week. 0:51:49.560 --> 0:51:53.400 Yeah yeah, That was the voice of the singular Garrison Davis, 0:51:53.800 --> 0:51:55.000 the one the only. 0:51:55.440 --> 0:51:59.880 Yes, Hello, I'm excited to hear about tariffs. It's tariff 0:52:00.440 --> 0:52:02.880 here and it could happen here. One of my favorite 0:52:03.440 --> 0:52:05.640 favorite topics I guess now, all. 0:52:05.560 --> 0:52:07.160 Right, Garash, we're putting you on the spot. What is 0:52:07.200 --> 0:52:12.120 a tariff? It's basically googling tariff. 0:52:13.120 --> 0:52:18.000 No, A tariff is when Trump says China's bad, so 0:52:18.040 --> 0:52:23.000 he makes China pay extra money to sell their goods 0:52:23.000 --> 0:52:27.200 to Americans, and luckily China pays for all of it, 0:52:27.239 --> 0:52:31.239 and the American consumer gets off with a boosting economy. 0:52:31.360 --> 0:52:32.479 That's at least what I've heard. 0:52:33.120 --> 0:52:37.319 Yeah, So unfortunately for every one I don't know, I guess, 0:52:37.360 --> 0:52:39.359 I guess there's some acceleration this who are probably really 0:52:39.400 --> 0:52:44.800 excited about this most certainly. The way this actually works is, okay, 0:52:44.840 --> 0:52:46.920 so the government sets up a tariff, and that means 0:52:46.960 --> 0:52:49.879 if anyone is bringing a good into the US, they 0:52:49.880 --> 0:52:51.359 have to pay the tariff on it, and that money 0:52:51.400 --> 0:52:54.560 goes to the government. So, okay, There's been a long 0:52:54.640 --> 0:52:57.040 history of tariffs in the US. This is a huge 0:52:57.040 --> 0:52:59.840 domestic policy think, particularly in the eighteen hundreds. 0:53:00.160 --> 0:53:00.920 Be fucking boring. 0:53:01.360 --> 0:53:04.560 The incredibly short version of it is that the thing 0:53:04.600 --> 0:53:07.440 about tariffs is that, especially like tariffs on a specific sector, 0:53:07.560 --> 0:53:10.880 is that they're good for you manufacturing that thing kind 0:53:10.920 --> 0:53:13.879 of mostly, and they're bad for anyone trying to buy 0:53:13.880 --> 0:53:17.920 that good because it's now more expensive. So Trump's plan, 0:53:18.600 --> 0:53:20.560 and we're going to get into a bit more detail 0:53:20.600 --> 0:53:22.640 about this, because there's parts of Trump's tariff plan that 0:53:22.680 --> 0:53:25.319 everyone seems to have forgotten about for some reason that 0:53:25.560 --> 0:53:28.520 I don't know why they've forgotten about. But the basic 0:53:28.560 --> 0:53:31.280 plan is to impose something like a ten to twenty 0:53:31.320 --> 0:53:35.120 percent tariff on all goods that enter the US from anywhere. 0:53:35.680 --> 0:53:39.239 There's specifically one for Mexico, but the numbers on what 0:53:39.280 --> 0:53:42.000 the Mexico tariff is changes every time he opens his mouth. 0:53:42.320 --> 0:53:44.960 Sometimes it's like twenty five percent. There's one where it's 0:53:45.000 --> 0:53:50.640 like two hundred and fifty percent. Of course, two interchangeable percentages. Yeah, 0:53:50.680 --> 0:53:53.600 and then for China, it's supposed to be a tariff 0:53:53.800 --> 0:53:56.960 of somewhere between sixty sixty percent is the most commonly 0:53:57.040 --> 0:53:59.080 sided number. But he's also set one hundred percent. 0:53:58.880 --> 0:54:01.399 Tariff once again and basically the same thing. 0:54:01.760 --> 0:54:04.680 Yeah, And so you know, part of what we, unfortunately 0:54:04.760 --> 0:54:06.319 the rest of us who live in the normal world, 0:54:06.320 --> 0:54:08.200 have to do is figure out what is actually going 0:54:08.239 --> 0:54:12.160 to happen if we get, for example, twenty percent tariffs 0:54:12.200 --> 0:54:14.760 on all goods entering the US. And a sixty percent 0:54:14.800 --> 0:54:18.799 tariff on goods from China. So the first thing you 0:54:18.840 --> 0:54:21.120 need to understand. I think most people kind of get 0:54:21.120 --> 0:54:23.239 this now. But the thing about a tariff is that 0:54:23.280 --> 0:54:25.319 you pay for it. So the way that it works 0:54:25.360 --> 0:54:27.480 in general is that this is just an additional cost 0:54:27.800 --> 0:54:30.799 for the company that's doing it, that's doing the like 0:54:30.840 --> 0:54:34.040 moving the good around, right, and so they are almost 0:54:34.080 --> 0:54:37.280 always going to just pass that cost directly on to you. Obviously, 0:54:37.360 --> 0:54:40.399 sometimes we've talked about pricing the way that pricing works 0:54:40.440 --> 0:54:43.359 a lot on this show. Companies tend not to want 0:54:43.360 --> 0:54:46.600 to raise prices, largely because of their effects on consumer 0:54:46.640 --> 0:54:49.760 happiness and brand loyalty and stuff like that. So sometimes 0:54:49.800 --> 0:54:52.000 people will just eat shit on it. But if you're 0:54:52.000 --> 0:54:54.560 talking about a sixty percent tariff, like you, the sixty 0:54:54.560 --> 0:54:56.319 percent tariff is going to be paid for by you. 0:54:57.000 --> 0:55:00.680 So that means that anytime we buy something that's either 0:55:00.760 --> 0:55:03.840 from Mexico or China or any of the other countries, 0:55:04.360 --> 0:55:06.960 that this will be applied to the easiest way for 0:55:07.040 --> 0:55:09.319 these for these companies to get around the tariff is 0:55:09.360 --> 0:55:11.120 just to pass off the cost of the consumer. 0:55:11.480 --> 0:55:13.920 Yeah, And it's actually worse than that because and This 0:55:13.960 --> 0:55:16.960 is something I don't think people really understand when you 0:55:16.960 --> 0:55:20.240 think about global trade, right people tend to think about 0:55:20.280 --> 0:55:23.200 trade as something that happens between countries, and this is 0:55:23.239 --> 0:55:25.560 something that was an old you know dreamlike the anti 0:55:25.560 --> 0:55:26.520 globalization movement. 0:55:26.520 --> 0:55:27.640 People sort of understood this. 0:55:27.640 --> 0:55:30.680 And kind of don't now. Trade doesn't actually really happen 0:55:30.719 --> 0:55:34.680 between countries. Most trade is one company, an international company, 0:55:34.719 --> 0:55:38.359 moving a resource from one country to another. Right So, 0:55:38.560 --> 0:55:41.920 like trade is fucking Amazon moving something from a warehouse 0:55:41.960 --> 0:55:43.920 in one country to warehouse in a second country. 0:55:44.400 --> 0:55:46.200 Right now. 0:55:46.719 --> 0:55:49.399 I've seen a lot of people, and this ranges from 0:55:49.480 --> 0:55:52.360 like very very serious sort of you know, news sources 0:55:52.400 --> 0:55:55.120 and economists trying to sort of just directly model what 0:55:55.160 --> 0:55:56.839 the price increases are going to be. I've seen people 0:55:56.920 --> 0:55:58.399 be like, oh, your shirts are going to cost sixty 0:55:58.400 --> 0:56:02.040 percent more, or video games will stop existing because they're 0:56:02.080 --> 0:56:05.520 too expensive, and who gives a shit? Why are we 0:56:05.560 --> 0:56:08.600 even trying to do sectoral modeling of the impacts of this. 0:56:08.920 --> 0:56:11.160 If you try to impose a sixty to one hundred 0:56:11.160 --> 0:56:13.680 percent tariff on goods from China and a twenty percent 0:56:13.719 --> 0:56:15.960 tariff on all goes into the country, the economy will collapse. 0:56:16.440 --> 0:56:19.600 I don't know why everyone is pretending that this won't 0:56:19.640 --> 0:56:22.240 fucking happen. We're going to get into it a second. 0:56:22.280 --> 0:56:24.120 I guess the reason why people are pretending this is 0:56:24.120 --> 0:56:26.719 happening because the way they're doing the modeling kind of 0:56:26.800 --> 0:56:31.520 assumes that it won't, which is baffling, incomprehensible nonsense. 0:56:32.040 --> 0:56:36.080 Well, and that's especially amusing because the seemingly biggest issue 0:56:36.200 --> 0:56:39.560 this year around politics has been inflation, which has impacted 0:56:40.120 --> 0:56:42.480 every country around the globe. The US is actually whether 0:56:42.520 --> 0:56:47.319 that decently well, although there's been a catastrophic failure in 0:56:47.320 --> 0:56:51.480 communicating that and listening to the actual complaints from people 0:56:51.600 --> 0:56:55.240 on how they're still struggling with rising inflation. But still 0:56:55.280 --> 0:56:57.920 a big reason why Trump was elected is because he 0:56:58.000 --> 0:57:00.759 simply is not Joe Bideneh, and he's not from the 0:57:00.760 --> 0:57:04.120 Biden Harris administration, and there's this perception that he will 0:57:04.120 --> 0:57:06.360 be able to fix the economy, he will be able 0:57:06.640 --> 0:57:10.759 to get around inflation lower prices, when seemingly his main 0:57:10.840 --> 0:57:14.200 economic proposal will lead to what's probably going to be 0:57:14.239 --> 0:57:17.520 an economic collapse if it happens in the brutality of 0:57:17.560 --> 0:57:18.360 which he proposes. 0:57:18.680 --> 0:57:20.919 And there's another element of this right when I say 0:57:20.920 --> 0:57:23.440 that the likely result of Trump actually trying to implement 0:57:23.520 --> 0:57:25.760 his tariff policy is a global economic collapse. There's another 0:57:25.800 --> 0:57:28.120 part of this that everyone seems to have forgotten. And 0:57:28.280 --> 0:57:29.920 I don't know why they've forgotten this. I guess it's 0:57:29.920 --> 0:57:32.080 because nobody actually reads any of the things that Trump 0:57:32.080 --> 0:57:33.680 puts out on his website. 0:57:33.520 --> 0:57:36.919 Which is true. No one actually reads that stuff. It's nuts, 0:57:37.480 --> 0:57:39.760 especially his own supporters. Yeah, a majority of his own 0:57:39.760 --> 0:57:42.400 supporters do not pay attention to like Daily News. 0:57:42.800 --> 0:57:44.640 Yes, and now I remember this because I did an 0:57:44.640 --> 0:57:48.160 episode about these tariffs like six months ago. And one 0:57:48.160 --> 0:57:50.480 of the things about this, he has a thing called 0:57:50.520 --> 0:57:52.720 Agenda forty seven, right, which is his agenda for what 0:57:53.000 --> 0:57:54.120 he's going to do when he takes. 0:57:53.920 --> 0:57:55.600 Power, which no one has cared about. 0:57:55.640 --> 0:57:58.680 And now everyone is going through and posting policy proposals 0:57:58.720 --> 0:58:01.440 from like fucking two years ago with the headline breaking 0:58:01.520 --> 0:58:04.200 news Trump announces a new plan. They're like, no, he has. 0:58:04.080 --> 0:58:05.480 This, This a our old plans. 0:58:05.560 --> 0:58:08.040 This stuff is like two years old. He's been openly 0:58:08.080 --> 0:58:08.960 talking about all that. 0:58:09.040 --> 0:58:11.200 Yeah, Frages, And one of the important parts of this, 0:58:11.440 --> 0:58:13.920 I'm just gonna read this quote because it is a 0:58:13.920 --> 0:58:16.080 part of this has been ignored by every single fucking 0:58:16.120 --> 0:58:19.320 analysis I've seen from like fucking the Center for American Progress, 0:58:19.360 --> 0:58:22.680 who obviously we're gonna screw this up to like Stamford's labs, 0:58:22.720 --> 0:58:24.680 Like everyone who's been writing about this has just ignored 0:58:24.680 --> 0:58:27.200 this part, which is quote as one of his top 0:58:27.240 --> 0:58:30.320 economic priorities. President Trump will stop the flow of American 0:58:30.400 --> 0:58:34.120 jobs overseas by passing the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act. Under 0:58:34.160 --> 0:58:37.680 the landmark legislation, if any foreign country imposes a tariff 0:58:37.720 --> 0:58:39.960 on American made goods that is higher than the tariff 0:58:39.960 --> 0:58:43.000 imposed by the US, President Trump will have the authority 0:58:43.040 --> 0:58:46.120 to impose a reciprocal tariff on that country's goods. Okay, 0:58:46.720 --> 0:58:49.800 So what this would do again is that any country 0:58:49.840 --> 0:58:52.560 that has a tariff already or imposes a tariff, And 0:58:52.600 --> 0:58:54.280 this is important if we get into a trade war 0:58:54.280 --> 0:58:57.200 where countries start imposing tariffs on each other in retaliation 0:58:57.280 --> 0:58:59.120 for their other terrorists, which is what happens when he 0:58:59.160 --> 0:59:02.080 did this trade war, which in like twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. 0:59:02.800 --> 0:59:04.600 That means that we're also going to impose a tariff, 0:59:04.640 --> 0:59:06.920 which means that the tariff rates don't stay at ten 0:59:06.960 --> 0:59:09.360 to twenty percent. They cyclically spiral upwards. 0:59:09.560 --> 0:59:12.640 That's just like an escalating series of terrorifts. 0:59:12.720 --> 0:59:15.520 Yeah, and the thing is right, the policy process that 0:59:15.560 --> 0:59:17.720 they have on his page are like, well, okay, we're 0:59:17.720 --> 0:59:19.640 gonna do this, do like a presidential act, right, But 0:59:19.640 --> 0:59:23.240 the thing is the president actually has really, really, under 0:59:23.240 --> 0:59:26.880 a number of different acts, has extremely wide discretionary authority 0:59:26.920 --> 0:59:28.959 to set tariffs as long as he can basically sort 0:59:28.960 --> 0:59:32.000 of like cobble together some kind of bullshit excuse for it. 0:59:32.280 --> 0:59:34.320 And at that point you're relying on the Supreme Court 0:59:34.360 --> 0:59:37.760 to stop literally anything that Trump does, like don't give 0:59:37.760 --> 0:59:38.040 a shit. 0:59:38.120 --> 0:59:39.040 Well, I mean, I don't know. 0:59:39.400 --> 0:59:42.760 Maybe someone will like go up to like can Clarence 0:59:42.800 --> 0:59:45.200 Thomas and go like, hey, if we do this like 0:59:45.320 --> 0:59:48.880 importing new like windshield wipers for your RV is going 0:59:48.960 --> 0:59:51.080 to cost ten million dollars more or whatever, But like 0:59:51.760 --> 0:59:54.240 there's no shot of this stuff getting stuff. And the 0:59:54.280 --> 0:59:57.600 thing is right, the reciprocal tariff stuff. He could just 0:59:57.680 --> 1:00:00.000 do this through his existing teriff authority. He doesn't Actually 1:00:00.000 --> 1:00:01.920 you need to pass something through Congress. W should actually 1:00:01.920 --> 1:00:03.960 be I think tricky for him, but he doesn't need. 1:00:03.760 --> 1:00:06.160 To do you know what we need to do right now, 1:00:06.280 --> 1:00:09.520 Thomia just badly, badly put to a bunch of companies 1:00:09.520 --> 1:00:12.520 that are going to be absolutely fucking viscerated if this 1:00:12.600 --> 1:00:13.240 goes through. 1:00:14.000 --> 1:00:14.440 That's right. 1:00:14.480 --> 1:00:17.760 Donald Trump stands for anti capitalist action. He's going to 1:00:17.840 --> 1:00:32.480 destroy free trade. So enjoy these ads when you still can. Okay, 1:00:32.520 --> 1:00:35.000 we are back Mia. Let's hear how Trump is going 1:00:35.080 --> 1:00:37.800 to perfect the capitalist economic system by a series of 1:00:37.920 --> 1:00:40.720 escalating tariffs that will destroy the economy and in doing so, 1:00:40.800 --> 1:00:43.480 but about the opportunity for Marxist to size power and 1:00:43.920 --> 1:00:45.520 change the world economic system. 1:00:45.800 --> 1:00:48.200 Yeah, so I'm going to read another quote from that 1:00:48.280 --> 1:00:52.800 same agenda forty seven thing quote. For example, food items 1:00:52.800 --> 1:00:55.560 like cereals, your other preparatory goods are tariffed at thirty 1:00:55.560 --> 1:00:58.000 two point nine percent by India and nineteen point five 1:00:58.000 --> 1:01:00.240 percent by China, and only three point one percent by 1:01:00.240 --> 1:01:03.280 the US. India applies a tariff of twenty five point 1:01:03.280 --> 1:01:06.240 three percent on transportation equipment, while the US only terrorists 1:01:06.240 --> 1:01:08.320 goes at two point nine percent. Now, those exact numbers 1:01:08.320 --> 1:01:10.920 are debatable, but it doesn't matter because these these are 1:01:10.920 --> 1:01:14.120 going to be vibes based ones based on how pissed 1:01:14.120 --> 1:01:15.440 off Trump is at a country. 1:01:15.760 --> 1:01:18.880 Yeah, as Trump is usually a vibes based guy. Yeah, 1:01:18.960 --> 1:01:21.120 especially when it comes to the economy, especially when it 1:01:21.120 --> 1:01:23.680 comes to like these numbers he's pulling out like between 1:01:23.720 --> 1:01:26.600 sixty to one hundred percent. He doesn't know what any 1:01:26.600 --> 1:01:28.800 of those numbers means. He's just thinking of a number 1:01:28.800 --> 1:01:29.920 and saying it out loud. 1:01:30.240 --> 1:01:33.560 And the thing about all of these things, right, even 1:01:33.760 --> 1:01:36.480 just the base twenty percent, or let's let's go to 1:01:36.480 --> 1:01:38.120 the lowest numbers he's talked about, which is a ten 1:01:38.160 --> 1:01:40.920 percent tariff on all goods and a sixty percent tariff 1:01:40.960 --> 1:01:45.240 on Chinese goods. Right, that in and of itself blows 1:01:45.240 --> 1:01:48.480 a smoking crater in the world economy. And none of 1:01:48.520 --> 1:01:51.680 the assessments that you will read are talking about this. 1:01:52.200 --> 1:01:54.160 One of the things that they will mention that is true, 1:01:54.200 --> 1:01:56.400 but they're not, you know, getting to the importance of 1:01:56.480 --> 1:01:59.000 is that this affects stuff that's made in the US. 1:01:59.640 --> 1:02:01.280 Because the thing about things that are made in the 1:02:01.360 --> 1:02:03.880 US is that they're made from components that are from elsewhere, 1:02:03.880 --> 1:02:05.880 because that's how international supply chains work. 1:02:06.240 --> 1:02:09.000 Oh wait, even though we have through tariffs and moved 1:02:09.040 --> 1:02:13.080 all manufacturing of Toyota into the United states. You're saying 1:02:13.080 --> 1:02:15.800 that still some of the materials are not all solely 1:02:16.800 --> 1:02:19.480 made him produced within the country, and it actually requires 1:02:19.560 --> 1:02:20.320 unfeign trade. 1:02:20.440 --> 1:02:22.840 Yeah, and part of the problem I think of, like, Okay, 1:02:22.840 --> 1:02:25.840 so if you logically think out the conclusions of what 1:02:25.920 --> 1:02:26.480 that means. 1:02:26.680 --> 1:02:29.760 Right, first mistake Abia that you're trying to solve this 1:02:29.840 --> 1:02:30.720 problem through logic. 1:02:30.960 --> 1:02:33.400 Well, but here's the thing, right, Obviously Trump is not 1:02:33.440 --> 1:02:36.080 going to think through this, right, But I kind of 1:02:36.160 --> 1:02:38.960 expect people who are like writing about this for a 1:02:39.000 --> 1:02:40.800 living to do mildly better than this. 1:02:41.000 --> 1:02:43.320 And possibly some of the people that he like hires 1:02:43.320 --> 1:02:44.600 onto his cabinet and team. 1:02:44.720 --> 1:02:45.640 Maybe, but we'll. 1:02:45.480 --> 1:02:48.560 Say, no, I'm not talking about like his critics. Oh sure, sure, 1:02:48.560 --> 1:02:50.080 one of the numbers will see all the time. The 1:02:50.080 --> 1:02:52.440 Center for American Progress has this line of how the 1:02:52.520 --> 1:02:54.840 terrofts will function his attacks that cost the America consume 1:02:54.920 --> 1:02:56.560 for like seventeen hundred dollars a year. 1:02:56.720 --> 1:03:00.000 Right, which was the line that Kamala used pretty often. Yeah, 1:03:00.040 --> 1:03:02.480 framing as tariffs as like a sales tax. 1:03:02.720 --> 1:03:04.760 This is fucking horseshit. 1:03:05.360 --> 1:03:08.000 The only way you can think that the net effect 1:03:08.080 --> 1:03:10.720 of this would just be a seventeen hundred dollars tax 1:03:10.800 --> 1:03:12.960 is if you don't understand how the economy works at all. Right, 1:03:13.000 --> 1:03:15.280 So I went through and read this, and the way 1:03:15.320 --> 1:03:17.840 that they model it is just by like they find 1:03:17.960 --> 1:03:21.600 the like net dollar value of imported goods and then 1:03:21.640 --> 1:03:23.480 apply a tax to it, and then try to figure 1:03:23.480 --> 1:03:25.480 out like how much of those goods that the average 1:03:25.520 --> 1:03:28.360 person would buy in a year, and then increase the price. 1:03:28.840 --> 1:03:30.560 But and this is the thing that's very important. 1:03:30.560 --> 1:03:31.840 At the end of the analysis, right right at the 1:03:31.920 --> 1:03:33.360 very end, there's a little section where they say that 1:03:33.360 --> 1:03:36.080 they assumed this would have no other effects on the economy. 1:03:36.400 --> 1:03:39.880 This is unbelievably fucking stupid. Can I emphasize enough? Can 1:03:39.920 --> 1:03:41.840 you explain why that doesn't make any sense? 1:03:41.880 --> 1:03:41.920 So? 1:03:42.000 --> 1:03:45.120 Okay, So here's the thing. Right, prices go up. Now 1:03:45.240 --> 1:03:48.040 people can buy less things. What does that do to 1:03:48.080 --> 1:03:51.080 the economy, Well, it slows its growth rate. Right, Companies 1:03:51.080 --> 1:03:52.560 start to go out of business. And we're gonna get 1:03:52.560 --> 1:03:54.560 me into more of the ways that this plays out 1:03:54.600 --> 1:03:57.760 in a second. Right, But a bunch of people in 1:03:57.800 --> 1:04:00.640 a bunch of places fucking lose their jobs because suddenly 1:04:00.640 --> 1:04:03.200 the reduction and consumer demand means that there's a fucking 1:04:03.280 --> 1:04:07.440 reduction necessary production, and this has cyclical effects throughout the 1:04:07.560 --> 1:04:10.080 entire economy as more and more people fucking lose their jobs. 1:04:10.120 --> 1:04:12.320 And also, you know, the thing about those people who 1:04:12.320 --> 1:04:14.520 lose their jobs is that that also fucking reduces demand 1:04:14.560 --> 1:04:17.400 because those people are now even less able to afford 1:04:17.520 --> 1:04:20.280 the stuff that's been increased by inflation prices, and this 1:04:20.520 --> 1:04:24.160 this spirals through the entire world economy. 1:04:25.080 --> 1:04:25.680 In order to. 1:04:25.840 --> 1:04:28.160 Understand what exactly this is going to do, I think 1:04:28.200 --> 1:04:31.200 we need to understand why, you know, because like if 1:04:31.280 --> 1:04:33.080 Kamala Harris, I don't know if it makes any difference 1:04:33.080 --> 1:04:35.440 in the election, but Kamala Harris walks of the stage 1:04:35.520 --> 1:04:38.600 and says this is going to cost you seventeen hundred dollars. 1:04:38.600 --> 1:04:40.160 She does not walk on the stage and say this 1:04:40.200 --> 1:04:42.960 is going to cause an economic collapse, right, And I 1:04:43.440 --> 1:04:45.720 think the reason that happened is because we've gotten into 1:04:45.720 --> 1:04:48.080 this place where nobody fucking understands how the economy works 1:04:48.080 --> 1:04:50.040 at all, in a way that's even worse than it 1:04:50.160 --> 1:04:52.600 was even in like the twenty tens. Like in the 1:04:52.640 --> 1:04:54.680 twenty tens, I think people sort of had a vague 1:04:54.720 --> 1:04:57.800 understanding the thing that was happening to the economy was uberization, 1:04:57.840 --> 1:05:00.320 whatever you call it, was the expansion of gigwork. Right, 1:05:00.560 --> 1:05:02.680 there was sort of an understanding and a focus on 1:05:03.320 --> 1:05:05.520 the very sort of low level parts of the economy, 1:05:05.560 --> 1:05:08.440 like what are you a poor person doing for your job? 1:05:08.640 --> 1:05:10.240 Right? How does how does your income work? 1:05:10.280 --> 1:05:15.400 And not purely on these sort of like high finance 1:05:15.680 --> 1:05:17.320 or in the case in the case of what's been 1:05:17.320 --> 1:05:20.360 happening here, everyone has been unbelievably completely focused on like 1:05:20.880 --> 1:05:24.560 the Chips Act and like state led industrialization and all 1:05:24.600 --> 1:05:27.160 that stuff is fucking bullshit. It's it basically hasn't done 1:05:27.200 --> 1:05:28.880 anything yet, it's not going to do anything for like 1:05:28.880 --> 1:05:31.600 a decade, and it's not mostly what's going on in 1:05:31.640 --> 1:05:35.040 the economy. I've been holding my tongue on this for years, 1:05:35.480 --> 1:05:37.840 but the people who have been writing about the economy 1:05:37.840 --> 1:05:40.480 don't understand how the fuck it works because they've been 1:05:40.480 --> 1:05:42.840 completely myopically obsessed with the idea that we're in this 1:05:42.880 --> 1:05:47.000 new era of state capitalism and no like the actual 1:05:47.120 --> 1:05:50.160 thing that's been happening in the economy. And I think 1:05:50.280 --> 1:05:53.200 if you are like a person who buys stuff, you 1:05:53.280 --> 1:05:55.480 probably understand this. But for some reason this has never 1:05:55.520 --> 1:05:58.919 made it to like economists or like people who fucking 1:05:58.920 --> 1:06:02.000 write about the economy for a lot. Thing is consumer 1:06:02.040 --> 1:06:05.600 to manufacturer sales. So this is stuff like Temu, This 1:06:05.640 --> 1:06:09.240 is stuff like shean who and I mean invented. It's 1:06:09.240 --> 1:06:10.760 a strong word, but they're one of the first people 1:06:10.760 --> 1:06:13.480 who sort of popularized this model, right, And this is 1:06:13.480 --> 1:06:15.520 the thing where you have a platform that lets people 1:06:15.720 --> 1:06:19.080 like nominally buy directly from the factories or from you know, 1:06:19.120 --> 1:06:23.640 the people who are producing fruit, right, and these factories 1:06:23.720 --> 1:06:28.040 aren't producing goods until basically either people order the goods 1:06:28.160 --> 1:06:30.160 or like analytics tells them to order it, so they 1:06:30.200 --> 1:06:33.320 don't have a lot of the problems that other kind 1:06:33.320 --> 1:06:35.400 of like distribution models have. You have a bunch of 1:06:35.440 --> 1:06:37.400 good sitting in a warehouse, like you just don't have 1:06:37.440 --> 1:06:39.680 that because you don't start production until your sort of 1:06:39.760 --> 1:06:41.680 orders come in, your analytics come in. And the theory 1:06:41.720 --> 1:06:44.040 here is you can reduce costs by eliminating the middleman. 1:06:44.160 --> 1:06:46.760 But of course a new kind of middleman emerged, and 1:06:46.800 --> 1:06:48.520 that is the drop shipper. 1:06:49.680 --> 1:06:49.919 God. 1:06:50.040 --> 1:06:53.920 So the drop shipper is just someone using the consumer 1:06:53.960 --> 1:06:57.080 to manufacturer pipeline. Right that the platforms that are supposed 1:06:57.080 --> 1:06:59.280 to let you the consumer sort of just like buy 1:06:59.360 --> 1:07:01.600 directly from the thing and cut out mailmen. It's just 1:07:01.600 --> 1:07:05.040 someone doing that but then turning around and selling you 1:07:05.160 --> 1:07:09.320 the result. And this has become just utterly fucking ubiquitous 1:07:09.320 --> 1:07:11.160 in the American economy. It's it's sort of like an 1:07:11.200 --> 1:07:14.760 integral part of the American scam economy now too, as 1:07:14.760 --> 1:07:17.000 the American economy has been increasingly sort of riddled and 1:07:17.000 --> 1:07:19.480 consumed by scams and riddled and consumed by sort of 1:07:19.600 --> 1:07:23.439 like people trying to capitalize on like some fucking meme 1:07:23.600 --> 1:07:25.080 or some political thing. You know, you have all these 1:07:25.080 --> 1:07:27.080 people doing like drop ship t shirts right where they 1:07:27.080 --> 1:07:28.400 can immediately come in and. 1:07:28.800 --> 1:07:30.680 Ye sell all of this stuff. 1:07:30.400 --> 1:07:33.520 These like short lived like trend meme based either like 1:07:33.600 --> 1:07:36.320 fashion or even like goods. You know, you can talk 1:07:36.320 --> 1:07:39.440 about like the amount of like content creator merch that 1:07:39.600 --> 1:07:42.040 is all funneled through these like drop shipping companies. 1:07:42.200 --> 1:07:44.200 Yeah, and it's it's also what's been it's a thing 1:07:44.240 --> 1:07:46.720 that's enabled like fast fashion to function in. 1:07:46.640 --> 1:07:49.000 The way that it is right now, right absolutely. 1:07:48.560 --> 1:07:52.640 And this has become what consumption is in large swaths 1:07:52.680 --> 1:07:54.800 of the world is from this sort of like direct 1:07:54.800 --> 1:07:58.640 to consumer drop shipping shit, right. Yeah, Now, the thing 1:07:58.680 --> 1:08:01.120 about about these drop shipping things is that their profit 1:08:01.160 --> 1:08:04.480 margins are really really low. They don't make that much money, 1:08:04.520 --> 1:08:06.080 and in fact, a lot of these things like hemorrhage 1:08:06.120 --> 1:08:08.560 money until they've basically you know, they do the thing 1:08:08.560 --> 1:08:10.560 that Amazon did, right, where like you lose money for 1:08:10.600 --> 1:08:12.280 a million years, but then eventually you have enough market 1:08:12.320 --> 1:08:13.479 chourney you start making money again. 1:08:13.600 --> 1:08:15.720 Yeah, because you make it so all your competitors basically 1:08:15.800 --> 1:08:18.320 can't function because you have prices that are so low. 1:08:18.479 --> 1:08:20.160 And then when you're the only one in the game 1:08:20.560 --> 1:08:23.720 with a sizeable power influence, you can raise prices and 1:08:23.760 --> 1:08:26.200 then you make tons of money. Also the Uber model, 1:08:26.240 --> 1:08:29.439 although Uber still is improfitable. Yeah, well so yeah, Uber 1:08:29.479 --> 1:08:30.400 will never make any money. 1:08:30.439 --> 1:08:30.599 Right. 1:08:31.080 --> 1:08:33.720 But the other thing here that's important is that, you know, 1:08:33.760 --> 1:08:36.720 so the margins of a company like Temu, right, which 1:08:36.760 --> 1:08:39.000 is like probably the biggest of these sort of companies now, 1:08:39.120 --> 1:08:42.439 are low. But Temu technically has tech money, Like they 1:08:42.479 --> 1:08:44.920 have money to back them up, right, you know, who 1:08:45.000 --> 1:08:48.160 doesn't have an unbelievable amount of just like capital sitting 1:08:48.160 --> 1:08:50.080 around that they could just instantly pull from if suddenly 1:08:50.160 --> 1:08:52.559 there is I don't know, a sixty percent fucking price shock. 1:08:53.000 --> 1:08:55.760 Oh wait, it's all of the fucking manufacturing you know, 1:08:55.920 --> 1:08:59.240 like tiny manufacturing firms that these drop shipping things use 1:08:59.320 --> 1:09:00.439 to produce all their stuff. 1:09:00.680 --> 1:09:00.880 Right. 1:09:01.040 --> 1:09:05.120 That infrastructure is very fragile. It's it's margins are very bad. 1:09:05.600 --> 1:09:08.200 And oh guess what happens to that shit if you 1:09:08.240 --> 1:09:09.680 impose sixty percent terrafs on it? 1:09:09.760 --> 1:09:12.599 Right, it just shuts down because that's the easiest option, right. 1:09:12.760 --> 1:09:14.600 Yeah, And you know, and presumably I think one of 1:09:14.640 --> 1:09:16.760 the other parts of this would be part of the 1:09:16.800 --> 1:09:18.680 reason this has been happening is that all of this 1:09:18.800 --> 1:09:22.000 office are being imported like under terriff loopholes. But like 1:09:22.040 --> 1:09:26.799 that loopholes not hard to close, right, What terraf loopoles 1:09:26.880 --> 1:09:29.720 are you referring to? Oh yeah, so I talked about 1:09:29.720 --> 1:09:32.280 this in the ten episode. Those loopholes on American terriffs 1:09:32.320 --> 1:09:34.400 were like, if you're if you're bringing stuff into the 1:09:34.400 --> 1:09:37.439 country that's below a certain value, it has to be 1:09:37.439 --> 1:09:39.719 above like a six hundred dollars something to like trigger 1:09:39.760 --> 1:09:44.200 a threshold, okay, to like activate the teriffs applying to it. 1:09:44.240 --> 1:09:47.080 So people just ship a bunch of like one billion 1:09:47.160 --> 1:09:50.880 boxes individually that are like five hundred and ninety nine 1:09:50.920 --> 1:09:52.639 dollars to go under the thing. 1:09:53.200 --> 1:09:55.840 So you're saying I can still maybe buy my new 1:09:55.880 --> 1:09:59.360 Sonic the Hedgehog PS five game, though, that should be fine. 1:09:59.640 --> 1:10:02.280 I'll be totally good. Oh god, okay. 1:10:02.360 --> 1:10:04.720 So the other part of this that's important, right, So 1:10:04.920 --> 1:10:06.719 this is the kind of I don't know of news 1:10:06.760 --> 1:10:08.320 the right word, but this is the kind of recent 1:10:08.400 --> 1:10:11.720 part of the economy that's incredibly dependent on Chinese supply chains, right, 1:10:12.160 --> 1:10:15.320 that gets just liquefied if these terrorists go through. These 1:10:15.320 --> 1:10:19.040 are enormous companies that you know are going to just 1:10:19.160 --> 1:10:22.200 eat shit, and those companies eating shit have these sort 1:10:22.200 --> 1:10:23.840 of effects we talked about earlier, right, which is it 1:10:24.080 --> 1:10:26.760 caused people to get fired, it causes growth collapses, it 1:10:26.800 --> 1:10:30.559 causes cyclical decreases in people's ability to buy things, and 1:10:30.600 --> 1:10:33.840 then also like demand decreases because people can't buy things. 1:10:34.800 --> 1:10:37.400 But this is like the new school supply chain stuff. 1:10:37.479 --> 1:10:37.639 Right. 1:10:37.680 --> 1:10:41.400 Temu's a product of really the last six or seven years, 1:10:41.960 --> 1:10:43.840 and it really only functions the way it does now 1:10:43.880 --> 1:10:47.479 in the lasts about four but the previous two eras 1:10:47.479 --> 1:10:49.200 of supply some logistics, right, which is sort of wal 1:10:49.280 --> 1:10:52.479 Mart and Amazon are both also almost completely dependent on 1:10:52.600 --> 1:10:53.400 Chinese supply chains. 1:10:53.479 --> 1:10:53.599 Right. 1:10:53.680 --> 1:10:56.320 Yeah, there's a good JD super article which is they're 1:10:56.400 --> 1:11:00.479 like a business intelligence website, right, you know, talks about 1:11:00.479 --> 1:11:03.240 how Walmart imports seventy percent of all of it's goods 1:11:03.280 --> 1:11:03.759 from China. 1:11:04.240 --> 1:11:07.439 Yeah, that track seventy percent seven zero, right. 1:11:07.479 --> 1:11:09.639 And the reason that it works like this is because 1:11:09.800 --> 1:11:12.800 Walmart's entire business model, all of their supply chains, all 1:11:12.800 --> 1:11:15.960 of their logistics, everything that they do, right was was 1:11:16.000 --> 1:11:19.200 designed basically hand in hand to be integrated into Chinese 1:11:19.200 --> 1:11:20.000 economic production. 1:11:20.560 --> 1:11:23.680 And you can't just move that shit instantly, right. 1:11:23.720 --> 1:11:25.680 And this is also true of something like Amazon, right 1:11:25.680 --> 1:11:28.120 where Amazon, like sixty three percent of independent sellers on 1:11:28.160 --> 1:11:30.600 Amazon this is from the same source are Chinese. 1:11:30.680 --> 1:11:30.880 Right. 1:11:31.520 --> 1:11:34.840 So what you're dealing with is vast parts of the 1:11:34.880 --> 1:11:37.800 American economy, right, The parts of the American economy that 1:11:38.000 --> 1:11:42.720 you interface to buy things are based on goods that 1:11:42.760 --> 1:11:44.840 are suddenly going to have like sixty to one hundred 1:11:44.840 --> 1:11:48.599 percent tariff stapled onto them. Now, the thing that people 1:11:48.680 --> 1:11:51.559 have been talking about as the like, oh well, here's 1:11:51.560 --> 1:11:53.920 the thing that will happen instead instead like, instead of 1:11:53.960 --> 1:11:56.439 the thing that's pretty obviously going to happen if this 1:11:56.479 --> 1:11:58.640 have happens, which is just that the economic bubble we're 1:11:58.680 --> 1:12:01.479 in pops and everything s to go to shit. People 1:12:01.479 --> 1:12:03.680 have been like, oh, well, this will just accelerate the 1:12:03.720 --> 1:12:07.360 shift of production of goods out from China. And like 1:12:08.400 --> 1:12:11.000 I've been talking about this for like a fuck decade, right, 1:12:11.280 --> 1:12:13.559 Like the journal Chwung is something that I talk about 1:12:13.600 --> 1:12:15.000 a lot that I record on. People really has been 1:12:15.000 --> 1:12:17.439 talking about this for literally ages and ages and ages. 1:12:17.840 --> 1:12:21.080 So people have been trying to move production out of 1:12:21.160 --> 1:12:23.040 China for ages. I mean, like one of the first 1:12:23.080 --> 1:12:25.439 big attempts to do this was in twenty eleven when 1:12:25.439 --> 1:12:27.280 there is there's a series of riots in China, and 1:12:27.280 --> 1:12:30.599 people tried to move production of goods out of China 1:12:30.600 --> 1:12:32.000 and they couldn't do it. And the reason that they 1:12:32.040 --> 1:12:34.439 couldn't do it was because you have to find a 1:12:34.479 --> 1:12:37.599 country that has both like a relatively skilled and educated 1:12:37.680 --> 1:12:41.719 labor force and also has the infrastructure to be able 1:12:41.760 --> 1:12:45.080 to like match Chinese production. And so they we're talking 1:12:45.080 --> 1:12:47.240 about things like they have to have like a functioning 1:12:47.280 --> 1:12:50.200 electrical grid that is stable enough for. 1:12:50.160 --> 1:12:50.960 Production to function. 1:12:51.000 --> 1:12:53.240 And this rules out an enormous number of countries and 1:12:53.360 --> 1:12:56.880 it's just really really hard. And yeah, like Chinese capital 1:12:56.880 --> 1:12:58.880 has been moving away from its sort of old centers 1:12:58.880 --> 1:12:59.880 and the prop of delta to. 1:13:00.720 --> 1:13:01.759 Places like Vietnam. 1:13:01.920 --> 1:13:04.559 Right, but and this is the fucking big one, right, 1:13:04.840 --> 1:13:06.600 A lot of a lot of what's been happening for 1:13:06.840 --> 1:13:08.479 people have been talking about this thing called quote quote 1:13:08.520 --> 1:13:11.200 unquote decoupling, which is which is this the separation of 1:13:11.240 --> 1:13:13.240 the US and Chinese economy so that they're not like it, 1:13:13.240 --> 1:13:16.200 they're trying with each other. People think this is good 1:13:16.240 --> 1:13:18.759 for ideological reasons, or they think it's just something that's happening, 1:13:18.760 --> 1:13:21.320 and it's not. It's not happening. You know what else 1:13:21.400 --> 1:13:25.000 isn't happening. It's us not plugging these products and services. 1:13:25.080 --> 1:13:27.320 I think we do legally have to plug them. So 1:13:27.439 --> 1:13:30.879 here they are. Here's the plugs for the products and services. 1:13:40.800 --> 1:13:41.120 All right. 1:13:41.160 --> 1:13:43.400 Now, now that you've decoupled yourself from your money to 1:13:43.400 --> 1:13:45.320 buy these products and services, let's let's talk at at 1:13:45.320 --> 1:13:47.280 bit more about why decoupling is fucking bullshit. 1:13:47.920 --> 1:13:48.160 One. 1:13:48.320 --> 1:13:49.800 And I've been to something I've been saying on the 1:13:49.800 --> 1:13:53.400 show for years, like people have this sort of fantasy 1:13:53.439 --> 1:13:56.640 that what's happening is that, Okay, instead of making your 1:13:56.640 --> 1:13:58.559 thing in China, you make your thing somewhere else. And 1:13:58.600 --> 1:14:00.679 this means that American companies no longer have the supply 1:14:00.760 --> 1:14:03.559 chains running through China. That's not what's happening at all. 1:14:03.680 --> 1:14:06.120 On the financial front, where you have is actually increasing 1:14:06.120 --> 1:14:09.400 integration as as China attempts to sort of like you know, 1:14:09.439 --> 1:14:12.559 has been lifting restrictions on the ownership of different types 1:14:12.600 --> 1:14:15.080 of corporations to make it easier for foreign owners to 1:14:15.120 --> 1:14:17.479 actually come in and invest and put capital in China. Right, 1:14:17.800 --> 1:14:19.360 the second thing that's happening is a lot of these 1:14:19.400 --> 1:14:21.760 supposedly like we're cutting China out of the supply chain things, 1:14:21.800 --> 1:14:24.479 have been a bunch of Chinese companies starts starting to 1:14:24.479 --> 1:14:27.599 set up production in Mexico. Now, the thing about that, right, 1:14:27.640 --> 1:14:30.040 if Mexico was supposed to be the fucking panacea for 1:14:30.040 --> 1:14:33.360 getting us out of these tariffs, remember that Trump was 1:14:33.400 --> 1:14:36.479 talking about two hundred percent tariffs on Mexico, and that's 1:14:36.520 --> 1:14:38.599 the country that's supposed to like fucking get us out 1:14:38.640 --> 1:14:40.639 of this mess by like, oh, we'll be fine because 1:14:40.720 --> 1:14:42.960 like production will to shift away from China to like 1:14:43.000 --> 1:14:46.080 to where like a lot of the assumptions I was 1:14:46.120 --> 1:14:47.639 reading was like people were talking about, oh, the production 1:14:47.680 --> 1:14:49.040 will like twenty five percent of production will like. 1:14:49.000 --> 1:14:51.240 Shift to Canada. It's like, no, it won't do. 1:14:51.400 --> 1:14:53.479 Canada doesn't have the fucking production facilities to do They're like, 1:14:53.479 --> 1:14:55.120 what are you talking about, Like. 1:14:55.160 --> 1:14:58.439 Canada doesn't have the population to do that. No, it doesn't. 1:14:58.920 --> 1:15:01.240 This is this sort of problem, right, you know, on 1:15:01.280 --> 1:15:03.840 the one hand, you know, China has been de industrializing 1:15:03.920 --> 1:15:06.840 for like a decade and a half now, right, and 1:15:06.920 --> 1:15:09.160 kind of slowly, but the percentage of the population that's 1:15:09.200 --> 1:15:11.960 working in manufacturing has been steadily decreasing for years and 1:15:12.000 --> 1:15:15.639 years and years and years. But the problem is that 1:15:16.080 --> 1:15:18.639 when you move production out of a place, you actually 1:15:18.640 --> 1:15:21.160 have to have a second place to produce it, and 1:15:21.200 --> 1:15:24.040 there just haven't been right, Like you It's it's pretty 1:15:24.040 --> 1:15:26.599 easy to move low end manufacturing. This is what's been happening, right, 1:15:26.640 --> 1:15:29.080 Like really cheap garment stuff, for example, has been has 1:15:29.080 --> 1:15:30.000 been moving to places like. 1:15:29.920 --> 1:15:31.360 Bangladesh and Vietnam for a while. 1:15:31.640 --> 1:15:33.479 But once you start getting into the stuff that China 1:15:33.479 --> 1:15:35.519 produces like the most of right, which is things like 1:15:35.560 --> 1:15:39.760 fucking cell phones, sort of mid tier commodity production that 1:15:39.840 --> 1:15:41.360 gets way way, way, way way harder. 1:15:41.560 --> 1:15:43.000 No, but the Chips Act will save us. 1:15:43.040 --> 1:15:43.080 Me. 1:15:43.320 --> 1:15:45.920 I heard it from everyone on the television. I just 1:15:45.960 --> 1:15:46.360 got this. 1:15:46.479 --> 1:15:48.160 This is the sort of thing about this, right is 1:15:48.200 --> 1:15:50.120 if you look, if you read the analysis that people 1:15:50.120 --> 1:15:51.760 are doing of this, they just sort of assume that 1:15:51.800 --> 1:15:55.639 you can just like, oh well, like naturally a bunch 1:15:55.640 --> 1:15:58.000 of the consumption that Americans are doing will stay the 1:15:58.080 --> 1:16:00.320 same because they'll go buy goods that aren't produced in China. 1:16:00.320 --> 1:16:03.040 It's like, okay, like where where are you finding these 1:16:03.160 --> 1:16:06.280 goods from? Like what production facilities are you just like 1:16:06.320 --> 1:16:08.720 suddenly that have just been like sitting there fallow are 1:16:08.760 --> 1:16:11.439 just suddenly gonna like a PEERI out of nowhere. 1:16:11.840 --> 1:16:13.679 And the answer is like, that's not going to happen. 1:16:14.240 --> 1:16:14.680 And it's not. 1:16:14.760 --> 1:16:16.519 It's not going to happen, partially because they don't exist. 1:16:16.640 --> 1:16:20.479 Partially because again, the immediate consequence of this is a 1:16:20.479 --> 1:16:23.479 massive economic labs. China's economy has already been slowing for 1:16:23.520 --> 1:16:25.880 the like basically, I mean it's been slowing since like 1:16:26.000 --> 1:16:26.920 two thousand and eight. 1:16:27.479 --> 1:16:28.439 Really wow, I see. 1:16:28.280 --> 1:16:31.240 Has an eleven kind of but it's especially been slowing 1:16:31.240 --> 1:16:32.920 in the past two or three years because of sort 1:16:32.920 --> 1:16:36.000 of COVID restriction stuff and also just a kind of 1:16:36.080 --> 1:16:40.040 lackluster rate of returns on their own, like they had 1:16:40.080 --> 1:16:42.240 their own version of the two thousand and eight housing bubble, 1:16:43.520 --> 1:16:46.600 and that's annihilated and unbelievable amount of money because it 1:16:46.640 --> 1:16:50.120 turns out investing in real estate doesn't work as is 1:16:50.160 --> 1:16:51.840 basis for your economy. But like that's the thing, right, 1:16:51.880 --> 1:16:54.519 if the Chinese economy fucking goes down, right, that's like 1:16:54.560 --> 1:16:58.000 that's seventeen percent of the world's GDP. Seventeen yeah, of 1:16:58.080 --> 1:17:01.799 the total GDP, right, And it's like the economy isn't 1:17:02.400 --> 1:17:05.440 national in a way where you can have an economic 1:17:05.479 --> 1:17:08.240 collapse in another country, in just a country that's that 1:17:08.320 --> 1:17:09.880 large and ignore it. And the thing I want to 1:17:09.880 --> 1:17:11.640 close on, and the reason we know that this is 1:17:11.680 --> 1:17:15.400 true is that it is actually possible kind of to 1:17:15.720 --> 1:17:17.480 restart america domestic manufacturing. 1:17:17.560 --> 1:17:17.760 Right. 1:17:17.840 --> 1:17:19.600 Reagan was able to do it in the eighties. And 1:17:19.640 --> 1:17:22.160 Reagan did it through this thing called the Plaza Accords 1:17:22.760 --> 1:17:27.280 where he basically he didn't literally put the prime ministers 1:17:27.320 --> 1:17:30.080 of Japan and West Germany at gunpoint, but he basically 1:17:30.080 --> 1:17:33.200 put them at gunpoint and forced them to increase the 1:17:33.280 --> 1:17:35.840 value of their currencies so that the US currency would devalue, 1:17:35.840 --> 1:17:38.400 which would admit which makes it like a more competitive 1:17:38.439 --> 1:17:41.519 export economy. And this actually brought back American manufacturing for 1:17:41.560 --> 1:17:44.240 a while until it had to all be reversed under 1:17:44.240 --> 1:17:47.439 the Clinton administration and the Reverse Plaza Accords, because the 1:17:47.520 --> 1:17:49.400 problem was when you sort of nuke to the zero 1:17:49.479 --> 1:17:53.160 sum manufacturing of a country like Japan, their fucking economy 1:17:53.160 --> 1:17:55.880 didn't work anymore. And in order to sort of bail 1:17:55.920 --> 1:17:58.160 out the Japanese economy and stop just a sort of 1:17:58.200 --> 1:18:01.200 world running economic collapse, I would have just like tore 1:18:01.320 --> 1:18:03.599 the absolute shit out of the economy. The US had 1:18:03.600 --> 1:18:05.599 to fucking reincrease the value of its currency and lose 1:18:05.600 --> 1:18:08.799 its whole domestic production base. Right You can't actually increase 1:18:08.840 --> 1:18:11.400 a production base in the world right now without decreasing 1:18:11.439 --> 1:18:14.280 it somewhere else, and that has sort of staggering, ripple 1:18:14.320 --> 1:18:18.120 economic effects for the entire global economy, which is why 1:18:18.200 --> 1:18:21.800 even if Trust's plan worked somehow and didn't immediately cause 1:18:21.840 --> 1:18:25.839 an economic collapse by like the direct effect on American consumers, 1:18:25.880 --> 1:18:28.559 it would cause another economic collapse by the effect on 1:18:28.640 --> 1:18:29.679 fucking people in China. 1:18:30.160 --> 1:18:33.840 So well, Mia, I think you might be overreacting here 1:18:33.880 --> 1:18:38.240 a little bit because at least food will be available, obviously, 1:18:38.600 --> 1:18:41.360 and I learned this on X My main source for 1:18:41.439 --> 1:18:45.120 news is that agriculture almost all done in the States, 1:18:45.320 --> 1:18:48.080 so we should be fine, Like, we'll still be able 1:18:48.120 --> 1:18:50.960 to eat food, right, I say, staring. 1:18:50.800 --> 1:18:54.360 No to the voice, No, you can't, because, unfortunately, think 1:18:54.360 --> 1:18:57.599 about American agricultures, it's all fucking mechanized agriculture. The thing 1:18:57.640 --> 1:19:01.400 about mechanized agriculture is that you need the mechanized part, 1:19:01.439 --> 1:19:05.000 and that's all fucking produced either in other countries or 1:19:05.360 --> 1:19:08.920 the John Deere fucking like tractor factories in the US 1:19:09.479 --> 1:19:12.400 are all unbelievably reliant on a bunch of parts that 1:19:12.439 --> 1:19:13.320 are made overseas. 1:19:13.960 --> 1:19:17.639 So also, we do import a great deal of food, 1:19:17.720 --> 1:19:18.160 well we do. 1:19:18.280 --> 1:19:23.479 Yeah, even just talking about the food that we produce here, right, like, 1:19:23.520 --> 1:19:24.639 that's also gonna be fun. 1:19:24.680 --> 1:19:28.000 I wonder, I wonder where your strawberries in November are 1:19:28.000 --> 1:19:32.960 coming from. I think the other thing to keep in 1:19:33.000 --> 1:19:36.040 mind here is that this is only one aspect of 1:19:36.200 --> 1:19:40.360 how Trump will impact the economy. Obviously, his immigration policies 1:19:40.400 --> 1:19:45.679 could serve a similarly large financial problem if a whole 1:19:45.680 --> 1:19:49.879 bunch of agricultural jobs suddenly kind of vanish, and farms 1:19:49.920 --> 1:19:52.200 and other processing plants just to go out of business 1:19:52.360 --> 1:19:55.320 due to a lack of workers. And even some people 1:19:55.320 --> 1:19:59.320 on Trump's team have started to acknowledge this, mostly Elon Musk, 1:19:59.360 --> 1:20:03.400 who has opened said that Trump's term will involve some 1:20:03.479 --> 1:20:09.000 quote temporary hardship, so between tariffs and mass deportations. Like 1:20:09.200 --> 1:20:11.479 even people on his team know that this is going 1:20:11.520 --> 1:20:14.800 to damage the economy, especially in the short term, if not. 1:20:14.880 --> 1:20:16.320 The like forever term. 1:20:16.720 --> 1:20:19.920 Yeah, and yet he was still elected as the economically 1:20:20.000 --> 1:20:20.839 viable candidate. 1:20:21.520 --> 1:20:21.760 Yeah. 1:20:21.880 --> 1:20:23.439 And I think the last part we should say, and 1:20:23.479 --> 1:20:27.160 this is it's not that you can't like fucking obliterate 1:20:27.200 --> 1:20:29.160 a giant portion of the American economy and still come 1:20:29.160 --> 1:20:32.439 out extremely popular because you've crushed the American working class 1:20:32.479 --> 1:20:35.160 like that That's what Reagan did, right, Like Reagan and 1:20:35.200 --> 1:20:38.760 the Vulgar Shocks did this enormous, I mean, just put 1:20:38.760 --> 1:20:42.120 a crater in the American economy and in Reagan's first term, 1:20:42.520 --> 1:20:46.280 like the skyrocketing unemployment, just like real, real sort of 1:20:46.280 --> 1:20:50.400 economic devastation. But the thing about the vulgar shock was 1:20:50.439 --> 1:20:52.960 that the way he blew up the economy was really 1:20:53.000 --> 1:20:55.760 really good for people who like fucking owned assets, like 1:20:55.800 --> 1:20:59.240 people who who like owned bonds, like people like people. 1:20:59.000 --> 1:21:00.760 Who held other people's debt. 1:21:00.960 --> 1:21:03.080 He was great for those people, and like the burgeoning 1:21:03.120 --> 1:21:06.920 investment economy, which now kind of dominates our entire economic system. 1:21:07.000 --> 1:21:08.640 Yeah, and it was incredible for those people. And so 1:21:08.680 --> 1:21:09.120 it was fine. 1:21:09.160 --> 1:21:11.719 But think about this economic collapse, that this is also 1:21:11.760 --> 1:21:14.599 going to just absolutely fuck up the days of a 1:21:14.640 --> 1:21:19.120 bunch of extremely wealthy and influential capitalists. So including by 1:21:19.120 --> 1:21:22.920 the way, Elon Musk, who's tesla's are produced in China, 1:21:23.640 --> 1:21:26.439 Like he has a gigafactory. He's a gigafactory in shing John. 1:21:26.479 --> 1:21:29.360 So we'll see if Trump actually is able to implement 1:21:29.400 --> 1:21:31.559 this stuff. I think he's able to on a policy level, 1:21:31.560 --> 1:21:34.200 it's just politically, can he actually do these tariffs? 1:21:34.560 --> 1:21:37.280 Yeah, it's unclear. It's also unclear what exact numbers he's 1:21:37.280 --> 1:21:39.719 gonna run with. A ten percent tariff will still be bad, 1:21:40.320 --> 1:21:42.760 but it's nothing compared to one hundred percent tariff. I 1:21:42.800 --> 1:21:45.519 think Trump by and large just says whatever comes into 1:21:45.520 --> 1:21:48.600 his head without thinking through the actual logistical ends of 1:21:48.640 --> 1:21:51.559 what he's saying. And I think most Trump's supporters do 1:21:51.680 --> 1:21:54.360 not take him literally as a person, at least they 1:21:54.400 --> 1:21:57.200 don't take what he says necessarily literally all the time. 1:21:57.760 --> 1:21:59.920 They take him seriously, but perhaps not literally. 1:22:00.680 --> 1:22:04.040 Yeah, so we'll have to see how this actually plays out. 1:22:04.080 --> 1:22:06.920 If it does play out in the ways that Trump 1:22:06.960 --> 1:22:08.519 has said that it is going to play out, it 1:22:08.600 --> 1:22:14.000 is going to just unbelievably tank the economy in ways 1:22:14.040 --> 1:22:19.519 that absolutely suck. So, yeah, that's that's happening here in 1:22:19.760 --> 1:22:22.720 the future. Maybe that's the name of the podcast. 1:22:22.360 --> 1:22:25.880 Right, So stock up on your PS fives now before 1:22:25.920 --> 1:22:29.000 they get harder to buy, and it'll be fine. Yeah, 1:22:29.040 --> 1:22:32.040 there'll be nothing else bad that happens to the economy 1:22:32.200 --> 1:22:33.759 as long as you have your PS fives. 1:22:33.960 --> 1:22:34.200 Yeah. 1:22:34.360 --> 1:22:36.599 People always want fucking books to the end of episodes, 1:22:36.600 --> 1:22:38.320 so I'm just putting books at the end of episodes. 1:22:38.479 --> 1:22:43.120 This is my plugging Chwang Chu a n G'll help. 1:22:43.120 --> 1:22:44.640 We'll put it in the description. It's a bunch of 1:22:44.640 --> 1:22:47.759 stuff about Chinese economics. Mostly it's the sort of economic 1:22:47.800 --> 1:22:51.320 history of visionally the socialist period and the transition to capitalism. 1:22:51.320 --> 1:22:54.200 But it also has a bunch of very very good stuff. 1:22:54.200 --> 1:22:56.120 I'm trying to understand the Chinese economy. And so if 1:22:56.160 --> 1:22:58.439 you want to be about ten years ahead of like 1:22:58.880 --> 1:23:01.679 guys who write for the econ hoymist if you read Schwang, 1:23:01.760 --> 1:23:03.600 you will end up being like ten years ahead of 1:23:03.640 --> 1:23:04.120 those guys. 1:23:04.439 --> 1:23:07.280 So yeah, great stuff. 1:23:25.880 --> 1:23:28.960 All right, welcome to it could happen here. And what 1:23:29.040 --> 1:23:34.040 it is today is me James and Mia Wong Hi, Mia, Hello, Hi. 1:23:34.240 --> 1:23:36.920 What we're here to talk to you about today is 1:23:36.960 --> 1:23:40.720 something else, which, despite my positive tone of voice, is 1:23:40.760 --> 1:23:41.599 sad and depressing. 1:23:41.840 --> 1:23:42.480 Yeah. 1:23:42.600 --> 1:23:45.000 Yeah, it's just a lot of that, and like we 1:23:45.040 --> 1:23:48.280 don't want you to be too sad. It doesn't bear 1:23:48.400 --> 1:23:51.519 moping around, you know, like we've got time to get 1:23:51.600 --> 1:23:53.479 organized and that's what we should be doing. And also 1:23:53.640 --> 1:23:56.439 like just get out and go outside and see your 1:23:56.439 --> 1:23:58.679 friends and do things that bring you joy, Like we'll 1:23:58.760 --> 1:24:01.800 work out how to get through it. So you know, like, yep, 1:24:02.120 --> 1:24:04.639 I think it's really easy. And I found myself doing 1:24:04.640 --> 1:24:06.559 this stay at home and be sad, but don't like 1:24:06.600 --> 1:24:08.559 I went out with some friends for a hike on Friday, 1:24:08.560 --> 1:24:10.760 and I feel so much better. So I would advise you 1:24:10.840 --> 1:24:13.000 to do that. Maybe you're listening on your hike. That 1:24:13.160 --> 1:24:15.240 would be fun. Actually, I think if I was hiking, 1:24:15.240 --> 1:24:16.960 I would I would skip this one and listen to 1:24:16.960 --> 1:24:21.040 the birds and uh, you know, enjoy the outdoors. 1:24:21.160 --> 1:24:23.280 Well, I mean, you know, if if you want the 1:24:23.280 --> 1:24:26.559 ideological framing event, the ideological framing of it is that 1:24:26.600 --> 1:24:30.920 morale is a charade of struggle. Yes, and it is 1:24:31.280 --> 1:24:34.519 very easy to lose if your morale is absolutely terrible. 1:24:34.880 --> 1:24:38.760 So, yeah, we got four years. We can't be being 1:24:38.800 --> 1:24:41.400 moping around like we will get through it. We will 1:24:41.400 --> 1:24:44.680 find ways to make it better. And part of the 1:24:44.680 --> 1:24:46.360 way we do that, yeah, is keeping Amarell up and 1:24:46.400 --> 1:24:48.519 doing things that bring us joy. Thing that brings me 1:24:48.640 --> 1:24:53.519 joy is talking about roch Java, the Autonomous Administration of 1:24:53.520 --> 1:24:56.080 North and East Syria, and we're going to talk about 1:24:56.080 --> 1:24:58.559 that today. We're talking about Donald Trump's foreign policy in 1:24:58.600 --> 1:25:02.800 his second term. So his previous foreign policy was a 1:25:02.800 --> 1:25:05.600 pretty mixed bag, and he bombed the shit out of 1:25:05.600 --> 1:25:09.000 the Islamic State, right cool. Based he also bombed the 1:25:09.040 --> 1:25:12.640 shit out of thousands of Syrian and Iraqi civilians. Not 1:25:12.760 --> 1:25:16.840 so cool. Also, we should note, not so different from 1:25:16.880 --> 1:25:20.040 every other president this century. Bombing civilians has been pretty 1:25:20.120 --> 1:25:23.600 much the through line of American foreign policy in that 1:25:23.640 --> 1:25:26.120 part of the world for a very long time, in 1:25:26.120 --> 1:25:28.519 particular in the Trump administration. I want to talk about 1:25:28.520 --> 1:25:31.799 there was a single US strike cell called Talent Annvil. 1:25:32.280 --> 1:25:35.000 I think they were mainly like CAG guys from what 1:25:35.080 --> 1:25:39.120 I read, so Delta Force guys, Army Special Forces guys 1:25:39.360 --> 1:25:43.799 who were making these decisions. They hired a office building 1:25:43.840 --> 1:25:46.200 in Syria, and these guys were constantly looking at drone 1:25:46.280 --> 1:25:49.920 feeds and various other information and then calling in strikes 1:25:49.960 --> 1:25:52.360 on various targets. Right, I'm not sure if they had 1:25:52.400 --> 1:25:56.080 the CAAG guys in the watching computers. I'm not entirely sure, 1:25:56.080 --> 1:25:58.320 and like, well he didn't have someone else who knows, 1:25:58.479 --> 1:26:02.080 But this strike sale dropped more than one hundred and 1:26:02.080 --> 1:26:06.880 twenty thousand bonds, and Jesus Christ, yeah, yeah, the amount 1:26:06.880 --> 1:26:10.760 of ordinance we dropped on Syria, it is insane. It 1:26:10.920 --> 1:26:13.640 circumvented procedures are in place to prevent Philian deaths. In 1:26:13.720 --> 1:26:17.040 order to do so, they had embedded lawyers who were 1:26:17.040 --> 1:26:19.920 supposed to approve the strikes. But these lawyers tried to 1:26:20.080 --> 1:26:23.000 raise the alarm that some of these strikes were reckless. 1:26:23.320 --> 1:26:27.479 They weren't hitting things that were actual targets, and they 1:26:27.520 --> 1:26:30.280 sort of ran into an organizational brick wall. At some point, 1:26:30.640 --> 1:26:34.320 pilots even refused to engage targets because they didn't think Jesus, Yeah, 1:26:34.720 --> 1:26:36.360 which it's not usual. 1:26:37.600 --> 1:26:40.759 Yeah, like that'd be pretty fucked for a fighter pilot 1:26:40.840 --> 1:26:44.200 to be like, No, I don't think I've ever. 1:26:44.080 --> 1:26:44.840 Heard of that before. 1:26:45.040 --> 1:26:47.920 No, So I found this out in uh well, I 1:26:47.920 --> 1:26:51.160 think it was the New York Times. In New York Times, 1:26:51.200 --> 1:26:53.360 a pretty good investigation which we linked in our sources. 1:26:53.880 --> 1:26:57.320 And yeah, it's like a throwaway line, but I would 1:26:57.360 --> 1:26:59.120 love to hear more about that. It could have been 1:26:59.120 --> 1:27:01.799 a drone pilot, which is slightly different, gig. I guess 1:27:02.320 --> 1:27:05.160 you know, if you're seeing north of Las Vegas there 1:27:05.160 --> 1:27:08.639 fling a drone, kind of a different scene. So in 1:27:08.800 --> 1:27:11.360 the battle to defeat the Islamic State, thousands of innucent 1:27:11.400 --> 1:27:14.840 people lost their lives. As we reached the end of 1:27:14.840 --> 1:27:18.120 that battle, Donald Trump, who's president at the time, personally 1:27:18.120 --> 1:27:20.880 called erda one, who's the president of Circuit at the time. 1:27:20.960 --> 1:27:23.800 Right in late twenty eighteen, Trump asked the one, if 1:27:23.840 --> 1:27:26.840 we withdraw a soldiers, can you clean up ISIS. That's 1:27:26.840 --> 1:27:31.200 the quote, According to an unnamed Turkish official interviewed by Reuters, 1:27:31.320 --> 1:27:35.759 at One replied that Turkish forces were capable of a mission. Quote, 1:27:35.840 --> 1:27:38.840 then you do it, Trump told him, and US as 1:27:38.960 --> 1:27:41.439 National Security Advisor John Bolton, who was also on the 1:27:41.479 --> 1:27:44.880 call to quote start work for withdrawal of US troops 1:27:44.880 --> 1:27:48.360 from Syria. What this resulted in was US troops putting 1:27:48.360 --> 1:27:51.200 out from some locations in Syria right local people threw 1:27:51.240 --> 1:27:55.519 tomatoes at them. Even worse than the tomatoes were the 1:27:55.520 --> 1:27:59.639 fact that it gave NATO's second largest army, which is Turkey, 1:27:59.680 --> 1:28:04.439 of course, free reign to attack the Autonomous Administration North Nessyria, 1:28:04.520 --> 1:28:06.439 which it did in twenty eighteen it did again in 1:28:06.520 --> 1:28:10.080 twenty nineteen. Those two operations to claim considerable ground in 1:28:10.120 --> 1:28:15.439 Syria cost countless civilian lives. Continue to perpetrate human rights 1:28:15.439 --> 1:28:18.839 abuses to rehabilitate people from ISIS and other Jahadi groups 1:28:18.840 --> 1:28:22.519 as Turkish free Syrian Army, and they kill some people 1:28:22.520 --> 1:28:25.840 who were people I care about, and I continue to 1:28:26.560 --> 1:28:30.439 care about the cause of Rajava or Autonomous Administration in 1:28:30.479 --> 1:28:33.960 North Nessyria very deeply. And it really fucking sucks to 1:28:34.000 --> 1:28:37.519 think about the potential of the US abandoning those people. Again, 1:28:37.680 --> 1:28:41.120 not that Biden has done very much. Yeah. Now, I 1:28:41.160 --> 1:28:44.880 think this anecdote, right of what Trump does with one 1:28:44.920 --> 1:28:46.879 tells us a lot about his approach to foreign policy, 1:28:46.960 --> 1:28:50.720 which is he really sees it as very transactional, which 1:28:50.760 --> 1:28:52.679 is not different from everything else he does. I guess 1:28:52.720 --> 1:28:56.759 like he's a very transactional person, and he seems really 1:28:56.800 --> 1:28:58.599 only to be concerned about what he can get out 1:28:58.640 --> 1:29:01.280 of it. So like in this case, I guess he 1:29:01.360 --> 1:29:03.719 wants to say he bought US troops home from Syria, 1:29:03.880 --> 1:29:06.280 like he's anti war. This is one of his things, 1:29:06.320 --> 1:29:11.840 he says now, right, but he's prepared to also in 1:29:11.880 --> 1:29:14.679 the case of the bombing, Right, he's not so concerned 1:29:14.720 --> 1:29:17.320 with civilian casualties as long as he can claim that 1:29:17.439 --> 1:29:19.680 he'd he was the one who defeated isis right? A 1:29:19.760 --> 1:29:22.280 bomber couldn't do it. He did it, and he did 1:29:22.320 --> 1:29:25.080 it on a pile of civilian remains, and also using 1:29:25.920 --> 1:29:29.960 chiefly the Syrian Democratic Forces, right, not US forces. There 1:29:29.960 --> 1:29:32.439 were US forces on the ground. They were engaged in combat, 1:29:32.479 --> 1:29:36.559 but in minuscule numbers compared to SDF, who lost fifteen 1:29:36.640 --> 1:29:40.600 thousand of their children in a battle against ISIS. And 1:29:40.680 --> 1:29:43.040 I think Trump would be very willing to admit that 1:29:43.520 --> 1:29:46.040 he's transactional, right, Like, that's kind of his brand, is 1:29:46.080 --> 1:29:49.960 like America first and fuck everyone else. So I think 1:29:50.000 --> 1:29:52.519 he'll probably be similar in this term. 1:29:52.560 --> 1:29:52.720 Right. 1:29:52.760 --> 1:29:55.840 He will act unilaterally, He'll pivot whenever the fuck he 1:29:55.920 --> 1:29:59.200 feels like it. He will continue with his affection for 1:29:59.240 --> 1:30:02.040 strong men and dict caters all around the world. But 1:30:02.360 --> 1:30:04.840 a lot of stuff has changed since Trump's first term, 1:30:04.840 --> 1:30:06.920 and I think it's illustrative for us to think about 1:30:06.960 --> 1:30:09.640 how he will engage with things that have changed. So 1:30:10.320 --> 1:30:13.479 what has changed. There's a much larger conflict between Russia 1:30:13.520 --> 1:30:17.320 and Ukraine now, and that conflict has been seen massive 1:30:17.360 --> 1:30:19.720 and overt support both from the USA and for the 1:30:19.760 --> 1:30:23.080 rest of NATO. There's been a revolution in Memma. I 1:30:23.280 --> 1:30:24.840 suppose he doesn't know that. 1:30:25.280 --> 1:30:29.280 Yeah, I really doubt maybe some of the like weird 1:30:29.320 --> 1:30:33.960 pro coup meaning from the right guard to him, Yeah, perhaps. 1:30:33.520 --> 1:30:36.000 Or like, I mean, the parallels between the COO and 1:30:36.040 --> 1:30:40.479 Memma and January sixth are pretty obvious, right, Okay, Look, 1:30:40.520 --> 1:30:42.400 if January sixth to the landing, it lived a lot 1:30:42.439 --> 1:30:44.519 like that, except that it was a military party, not 1:30:44.800 --> 1:30:48.320 just a political party. The Islamic State doesn't exist as 1:30:48.479 --> 1:30:50.960 a territory identity, but it very much does exist as 1:30:51.040 --> 1:30:54.240 a terrorist group, which continues to and has actually increased 1:30:54.240 --> 1:30:58.799 its activity this month with sleeper cells continued, suicide bombing 1:30:58.840 --> 1:31:04.440 has continued, and the SDF continue with their anti ISIS operations. 1:31:04.960 --> 1:31:09.519 Without US support, those would be harder. And so we 1:31:09.600 --> 1:31:12.240 have to ask, I guess on what Trump's going to 1:31:12.280 --> 1:31:14.320 do with these things? And I want to look at 1:31:14.320 --> 1:31:18.040 a few different issues and pick apart what Trump said 1:31:18.080 --> 1:31:20.280 on his campaign website, pick apart what he said on 1:31:20.280 --> 1:31:23.480 the campaign trail, and then look at who he's appointed 1:31:23.479 --> 1:31:26.559 so far. We're recording this on Tuesday to twelfth, so 1:31:27.600 --> 1:31:29.680 if someone gets appointed before you hear this, that's why 1:31:29.720 --> 1:31:32.720 we've missed them out. So I guess to start with 1:31:32.760 --> 1:31:35.720 Trump's foreign policy, we should talk about his number one 1:31:35.800 --> 1:31:38.679 like peer competitor, which is China in his eyes right, 1:31:39.240 --> 1:31:42.439 not a big China appreciator. So I looked at his 1:31:42.439 --> 1:31:45.559 campaign website for this, which really has some just incredible 1:31:45.640 --> 1:31:48.639 use of capital letters. He just fucking does what he wants. 1:31:48.640 --> 1:31:52.200 It's wild to see. So chiefly one of the things 1:31:52.200 --> 1:31:53.800 that he's been on about for a while now is 1:31:53.880 --> 1:31:57.120 tariffs on Chinese made goods, right, as means the feign policy. 1:31:57.200 --> 1:31:59.200 Yeah, we just we talked about this last episode. 1:31:59.360 --> 1:32:02.639 Yeah, you will have heard about tariffs at this point. 1:32:02.720 --> 1:32:03.400 Yeah. 1:32:03.439 --> 1:32:06.719 So as we've previously mentioned, right, he's talked about these tariffs. 1:32:06.800 --> 1:32:08.720 These tariffs would cost a lot of money, and they 1:32:08.720 --> 1:32:11.639 would increase the cost of you going shopping. 1:32:11.840 --> 1:32:14.640 Yeah, and they would probably destroy vast whilest of the 1:32:14.640 --> 1:32:18.920 global economy. Yes, both the Chinese and the American economy, Yes, 1:32:19.200 --> 1:32:22.320 sort of implode. And then all these countries in Africa 1:32:22.600 --> 1:32:25.080 and you know, me and lar for instance, exports a 1:32:25.080 --> 1:32:27.760 lot of these rare earth metals to China, right, and 1:32:27.840 --> 1:32:30.559 a lot of countries in Africa do too. Aside from 1:32:30.600 --> 1:32:34.719 the economic sort of aggression, it stands on, Taiwan is weird, 1:32:35.120 --> 1:32:37.400 which is normally where we would like expect to see 1:32:37.400 --> 1:32:41.280 the most like physical friction between US and China. 1:32:41.400 --> 1:32:41.559 Right. 1:32:42.120 --> 1:32:45.360 Mike Pompeo has pressed for the USA to formally recognize 1:32:45.400 --> 1:32:49.320 Taiwan before, which would be a step you know, there'd 1:32:49.360 --> 1:32:51.840 be a pretty big swing. Trump, on the other hand, 1:32:52.320 --> 1:32:55.240 seems to want Taiwan to pay the United States for 1:32:55.479 --> 1:32:58.439 being its ally right now, Yeah, then this is like 1:32:58.479 --> 1:32:59.439 one of his big. 1:32:59.240 --> 1:33:01.320 Sort of foreign poles super principles, is. 1:33:01.320 --> 1:33:06.000 Like trying to get people to pay him for stuff 1:33:06.120 --> 1:33:08.240 because that's sort of the only way his brain works. 1:33:08.240 --> 1:33:10.720 But I remember this was NATO a lot, whereas this 1:33:10.720 --> 1:33:12.720 whole line on NATO that like NATO should be like 1:33:12.760 --> 1:33:15.280 paying us because people like you're not spaying it off 1:33:15.320 --> 1:33:17.400 on defense, so we're like paying all the defense budgets. 1:33:17.439 --> 1:33:19.720 This is like one of his kind of Yeah, it's 1:33:19.720 --> 1:33:22.759 been his hobby horse. Yeah, like floats around at his brain, 1:33:22.920 --> 1:33:27.120 sort of colliding with its walls. Yeah, empty space. Yeah, 1:33:27.160 --> 1:33:27.960 like a pink bung ball. 1:33:28.320 --> 1:33:31.599 Ironically, like in the time that Trump's been out of 1:33:31.600 --> 1:33:35.200 of is Russian aggression has led NATO members to spend 1:33:35.240 --> 1:33:38.360 more on defense, yeah, rather than Donald Trump lambasting them. 1:33:38.800 --> 1:33:41.120 So one of his big things is that Taiwan should 1:33:41.120 --> 1:33:44.439 pay the United States. But it would seem very unlikely 1:33:44.520 --> 1:33:47.360 that he if he's not going to abandon Taiwan, I 1:33:47.439 --> 1:33:49.360 think because it gives him a place to grand stand 1:33:49.439 --> 1:33:49.920 on China. 1:33:50.560 --> 1:33:52.200 Yeah, and also, like you know, I mean, one of 1:33:52.240 --> 1:33:53.960 the things about Trump is that one of the best 1:33:54.000 --> 1:33:55.320 ways to sort of influence him. 1:33:55.400 --> 1:33:58.320 Is just get a world leader in a room with 1:33:58.439 --> 1:33:59.519 him alone. Yes. 1:34:00.600 --> 1:34:04.920 Unfortunately, well fortunately for us, Trump does not speak Chinese 1:34:05.120 --> 1:34:08.280 and she doesn't seem to like him very much. 1:34:08.600 --> 1:34:11.600 So yeah, yes, we won't be here. We won't be 1:34:11.680 --> 1:34:15.439 joining the PSC anytime soon. China, along with Russia right 1:34:15.560 --> 1:34:18.479 to countries we've spoken about most of both make big 1:34:18.479 --> 1:34:22.320 plays in Africa. Russia has rebranded what was Wagner as 1:34:22.320 --> 1:34:26.240 the Africa Cores, and they're sort of providing support to 1:34:26.320 --> 1:34:31.240 regimes that lack enough legitimacy to exist otherwise. Yeah, they 1:34:31.280 --> 1:34:35.200 are like sort of classic mercenary shit, like it's your state, 1:34:35.240 --> 1:34:37.200 illegitimate and does it lack the capacity to do the 1:34:37.280 --> 1:34:40.439 violence it needs to maintain itself? Don't worry. Here are 1:34:40.479 --> 1:34:42.600 some heres, some psychopaths from Russia. 1:34:42.680 --> 1:34:44.479 Yeah, and there's just a lot of people, I think 1:34:44.479 --> 1:34:48.360 because like a lot of these sort of governments will 1:34:48.600 --> 1:34:51.920 kind of like do their like like put a red 1:34:52.000 --> 1:34:54.559 Bereton and start doing their anti imperial as cosplay and 1:34:54.560 --> 1:34:57.479 then you like read the like the fine print of 1:34:57.520 --> 1:35:01.000 the contracts they've signed with like Africa Korra, thing that 1:35:01.160 --> 1:35:04.000 like you expect to be spelled like Africa and Core 1:35:04.120 --> 1:35:08.559 with a K like Kalo rps like and it's like, 1:35:08.600 --> 1:35:11.360 oh okay, so, like they've signed away a bunch of 1:35:11.360 --> 1:35:13.800 the country's mineral rights and like they've signed away a 1:35:13.800 --> 1:35:17.040 bunch of these specific minds to these mercenary groups. It's like, 1:35:17.040 --> 1:35:20.080 oh okay, so this is like awesome. This is also 1:35:20.160 --> 1:35:22.320 just imperialism. It's just new management. 1:35:22.600 --> 1:35:25.479 Yeah exactly, Yeah, it's just different imperialism. And then China 1:35:25.560 --> 1:35:29.000 has big plays in Africa too, Like I've personally seen 1:35:29.040 --> 1:35:31.679 a lot of Chinese owned minds in Africa, Chinese roads 1:35:31.680 --> 1:35:35.479 in Africa. China does also like offer infrastructure. Chinese does 1:35:35.520 --> 1:35:37.400 a kind of quid pro quo. It doesn't come in 1:35:37.560 --> 1:35:40.280 like with the violence like Russia does. It comes in 1:35:40.320 --> 1:35:42.240 with that will build your hospital if we can have 1:35:42.320 --> 1:35:46.400 all your natural resources. US policy in Africa is pretty 1:35:46.479 --> 1:35:49.919 much to stop those two countries getting too much influence. 1:35:50.479 --> 1:35:53.720 The Biden administration is as many liberals are right, like, 1:35:54.360 --> 1:35:56.120 there's actually not that much difference between what Biden and 1:35:56.160 --> 1:35:58.600 Trump will do in Africa. The difference is Biden is 1:35:58.600 --> 1:36:01.240 smart enough not to say it. Trump's ability to do 1:36:01.280 --> 1:36:03.280 anything useful in Africa is going to be masked by 1:36:03.280 --> 1:36:07.480 his massive racism, Like when he says things like shitthhole countries, 1:36:08.040 --> 1:36:10.200 it becomes a lot harder for the US to do 1:36:10.280 --> 1:36:13.840 anything in Africa that isn't tinged by that, right, Like 1:36:13.960 --> 1:36:18.360 that doesn't make that sort of imperialist ambition more obvious. 1:36:18.840 --> 1:36:21.760 US politicians rarely talk about Africa, they rarely campaign on 1:36:21.840 --> 1:36:24.439 what they were going to do in Africa, and so 1:36:25.320 --> 1:36:27.080 pretty much the only things we're going to hear from 1:36:27.120 --> 1:36:29.600 Donal Trump at Africa, I would imagine, are going to 1:36:29.680 --> 1:36:32.720 be when he lets his racism out. Yeah, that will 1:36:32.760 --> 1:36:35.800 have results for like US credibility. Also, my guess is. 1:36:35.760 --> 1:36:38.639 We see intensifications of sort of US drone strikes, particularly 1:36:38.640 --> 1:36:41.640 in the Horn, and we see like like all of 1:36:41.680 --> 1:36:44.400 the stuff that Biden is doing, but worse and killing 1:36:44.439 --> 1:36:45.320 even more people. 1:36:45.360 --> 1:36:48.760 Somehow, Yeah, I would imagine that we will see these 1:36:48.760 --> 1:36:52.800 more aggressive throne strike especially against like Islamist groups in Africa. 1:36:52.920 --> 1:36:55.439 That US has special forces deployments in a few places 1:36:55.439 --> 1:36:58.599 in Africa, which will probably maintain I would imagine, Like, 1:36:59.120 --> 1:37:02.360 I don't think those are things that Trump would He 1:37:02.400 --> 1:37:05.280 wouldn't see any benefit from stopping them, I guess, And 1:37:05.320 --> 1:37:07.360 it may not even know about them. So yeah, I 1:37:07.439 --> 1:37:11.320 think we will see little change in Africa would be 1:37:11.360 --> 1:37:12.600 my guess. 1:37:12.600 --> 1:37:13.559 Mildly worse. 1:37:14.280 --> 1:37:18.240 Yeah, yeah, I talk of mildly worse. Mere The thing 1:37:18.320 --> 1:37:20.840 that makes these podcasts mildly worse is our obligation to 1:37:20.840 --> 1:37:22.920 pivot to advertisements, which we must do now. 1:37:24.080 --> 1:37:26.800 That was that was a great one, holding out on 1:37:26.920 --> 1:37:29.599 you for three years, the good ad pivots. 1:37:29.840 --> 1:37:32.800 Yeah, well, there it is. That's what we've got for you. 1:37:43.000 --> 1:37:45.839 All right, we're back. So I want to talk about Europe. 1:37:46.560 --> 1:37:48.519 As you've heard in the Tariff's episode, right, he wants 1:37:48.560 --> 1:37:50.960 to put tariffs on European goods. European Union is going 1:37:51.000 --> 1:37:54.439 to slap tariffs right back on American goods. That doesn't 1:37:54.439 --> 1:37:57.840 really help anyone. It will make exporting from the USA 1:37:58.040 --> 1:38:00.920 very very hard. One thing that the USA might stop 1:38:00.920 --> 1:38:05.759 exporting is weapons to Ukraine. It's a little unclear Trump 1:38:06.200 --> 1:38:08.800 he called Olensky the greatest salesman on Earth, but it 1:38:08.880 --> 1:38:10.800 was also claimed that he can personally end the war 1:38:10.840 --> 1:38:13.439 in twenty four hours. I don't think that means that 1:38:13.439 --> 1:38:15.360 he will be deploying himself to the down bas a 1:38:16.439 --> 1:38:19.680 like a gun dam, but he claimed he can do 1:38:19.720 --> 1:38:24.040 this with his negotiating skills, this seems unlikely. To put 1:38:24.040 --> 1:38:26.519 it mildly, I don't think that it would be possible 1:38:26.560 --> 1:38:28.040 to end this war in twenty four hours if both 1:38:28.080 --> 1:38:32.479 sides declared peace right now, getting communications to their frontline 1:38:32.479 --> 1:38:34.760 troops would be a challenge in twenty four hours in 1:38:34.840 --> 1:38:39.840 some places. Yeah. So the way I interpret this, and 1:38:39.880 --> 1:38:43.080 I may be wrong here, is that he is likely 1:38:43.120 --> 1:38:46.000 to leverage the support that the United States gives to 1:38:46.160 --> 1:38:50.040 Ukraine in order to force Zelensky into an unfavorable settlement, 1:38:50.840 --> 1:38:54.080 which would achieve his goal of a being able to 1:38:54.080 --> 1:38:56.800 say he stopped giving American money to Ukraine, which has 1:38:56.840 --> 1:38:59.200 been a big talking point for the Like every time 1:38:59.600 --> 1:39:02.200 you sat with the Western North Carolina right after the 1:39:02.280 --> 1:39:05.519 hurricane or these Republicans sort of talking points were like, oh, well, 1:39:05.560 --> 1:39:08.240 all the money is in Ukraine, so we can't have 1:39:09.040 --> 1:39:12.799 fucking MREs for people in Western North Carolina, Like FEMA 1:39:12.880 --> 1:39:16.720 has no money because we sent Ukraine some memphors. This 1:39:16.760 --> 1:39:18.719 is very silly, right, This is it's not a zero 1:39:18.760 --> 1:39:22.040 sum game. It's not really a reasonable critique, but it's 1:39:22.080 --> 1:39:24.680 one that Trump has kind of managed to stick in 1:39:24.720 --> 1:39:28.160 the culture was his base seems to see the money 1:39:28.200 --> 1:39:31.080 going to Ukraine is directly coming from things that would 1:39:31.120 --> 1:39:34.120 otherwise be going to them, which he would benefit from 1:39:34.160 --> 1:39:36.120 it if he could bring this war to a close, 1:39:36.240 --> 1:39:40.959 right jd Vance has mentioned a demilitarized zone in between 1:39:41.479 --> 1:39:46.479 Russia and Ukraine, which yeah, he's going to minister the 1:39:46.520 --> 1:39:50.840 DMZ like yeah, like this did we really want this? 1:39:51.400 --> 1:39:52.680 Are we going to have troops out like we do 1:39:52.760 --> 1:39:55.200 in South Korea? For you know when was a career 1:39:55.240 --> 1:39:58.040 around the nineteen fifty seventy years, right, And I don't 1:39:58.080 --> 1:39:59.879 think that's really really. 1:39:59.720 --> 1:40:02.120 What they The thing what DMC is no one actually 1:40:02.200 --> 1:40:04.559 likes them. No, this sucks, It sucks. 1:40:04.640 --> 1:40:05.439 Yeah, they're awful. 1:40:05.479 --> 1:40:07.400 It's just a bit of land that you can yeat 1:40:07.479 --> 1:40:10.960 weapons over each other. Like especially in link modern warfare, 1:40:11.200 --> 1:40:14.160 they're not that effective at stopping to be bull fighting. Right, 1:40:14.360 --> 1:40:16.479 But very funny that North's career will be two for 1:40:16.560 --> 1:40:18.800 two on DMZs in wars it has been involved with 1:40:21.240 --> 1:40:25.960 huge dubb for them. He essentially seems to be advocating 1:40:26.000 --> 1:40:29.599 for exactly the peace settlement that Putin has proposed and 1:40:29.640 --> 1:40:33.240 that has been rejected multiple times. Several sources I've seen 1:40:33.320 --> 1:40:36.439 suggest that Trump has spoken to Putin quite a few 1:40:36.439 --> 1:40:40.559 times since leaving office. This has planned for Ukraine certainly 1:40:40.560 --> 1:40:43.360 seems closer to the Russian one than the Ukrainian one, 1:40:43.479 --> 1:40:47.240 the Ukrainian one being stop invading us and go home, 1:40:47.960 --> 1:40:50.080 and the Russian one being, well, we'll just keep all 1:40:50.080 --> 1:40:52.200 the stuff we've taken so far and then add a 1:40:52.200 --> 1:40:55.479 buffer zone in between, and Ukraine can keep whatever's left 1:40:55.520 --> 1:40:59.639 of its country. Right. What's interesting to me is what 1:40:59.800 --> 1:41:02.439 other than NATO members will do in the event of 1:41:02.520 --> 1:41:06.120 the US reducing its AID. I would suspect that they 1:41:06.120 --> 1:41:09.280 will try and step up and meet that gap. It 1:41:09.400 --> 1:41:13.040 might also result in the US put certain restrictions on 1:41:13.080 --> 1:41:13.439 its AID. 1:41:13.520 --> 1:41:15.120 Right, how it can be used, where it can be 1:41:15.200 --> 1:41:16.160 used crucially. 1:41:15.840 --> 1:41:19.680 Right, they don't like Ukraine using things to attack in 1:41:19.760 --> 1:41:22.679 Russia proper. They don't mind am using them to attack 1:41:22.760 --> 1:41:26.040 Russian forces, but not within Russia. I did see a 1:41:26.080 --> 1:41:29.920 picture yesterday of a I think it was three guys 1:41:29.920 --> 1:41:33.280 from Rogue I think it's called, which is a unit 1:41:33.320 --> 1:41:36.280 within the International Legion who had been killed within Russia. 1:41:36.280 --> 1:41:38.439 And they had a lot of like eighty fours and 1:41:38.479 --> 1:41:41.360 things like that, right, like US anti tank weapons, but 1:41:41.720 --> 1:41:44.760 the United States doesn't want Ukraine using the long range 1:41:44.840 --> 1:41:49.000 artillery and stuff it's given it to yeat projectiles at Moscow. 1:41:49.680 --> 1:41:52.320 I can see a situation where if the US draws 1:41:52.360 --> 1:41:57.680 down some bit aid, European allies of Ukraine might not 1:41:57.680 --> 1:42:00.439 play some of those restrictions on their aid. That could 1:42:00.479 --> 1:42:04.320 lead to some interesting complications for Russia. Right if Ukraine 1:42:04.479 --> 1:42:06.320 is more effective, like if they get more aid from 1:42:06.360 --> 1:42:08.360 Europe and Europe doesn't place restrictions on the aid, they 1:42:08.360 --> 1:42:11.680 could potentially strike Russia within Russia, which is not going 1:42:11.720 --> 1:42:13.479 to be good for Putin and it's probably not going 1:42:13.520 --> 1:42:16.400 to be good for like bringing I mean, unless they 1:42:16.400 --> 1:42:19.280 can deal some really crippling blows. It might not be 1:42:19.320 --> 1:42:21.280 good for bringing the war to an end. But maybe 1:42:21.280 --> 1:42:23.760 it will. Maybe they've done some pretty effective things with 1:42:23.920 --> 1:42:25.280 not a huge amount so far. 1:42:25.640 --> 1:42:27.519 I don't know. Maybe they get lucky on a strike 1:42:27.600 --> 1:42:28.759 on the Kremlin or something. 1:42:29.120 --> 1:42:32.679 Yeah, yeah, just the one like I mean, yeah, I'm 1:42:32.760 --> 1:42:34.800 sure that would be their strategy if they wouldn't have 1:42:35.320 --> 1:42:39.400 they didn't have restrictions, would be to just keep pounding 1:42:39.400 --> 1:42:40.680 places they think Putin might be. 1:42:40.920 --> 1:42:43.519 This is the history of Russian warfare. Dumber things that 1:42:43.840 --> 1:42:47.679 have happened and have lost Russia wars. So yeah, yeah, 1:42:47.760 --> 1:42:50.679 a lot dumber than that. So yeah, I don't think 1:42:50.760 --> 1:42:53.160 that Ukraine will be screwed if the US pulls out. 1:42:53.200 --> 1:42:55.080 I do think it will be a lot harder for them. 1:42:55.200 --> 1:42:57.800 Yeah, And you know, if that's something, there are a 1:42:57.840 --> 1:43:00.360 lot of US sits and still fighting in Ukraine. Would 1:43:00.400 --> 1:43:03.920 be pretty devastating to abandon Ukraine. And I think also 1:43:04.080 --> 1:43:09.120 just from the sort of stopping Russian aggression standpoint, it's 1:43:09.200 --> 1:43:11.720 much better to stop it here than somewhere else. But yeah, 1:43:11.800 --> 1:43:14.880 we will see. I guess European countries are really ramping 1:43:14.960 --> 1:43:18.519 up their defense, but right now the US is like 1:43:18.560 --> 1:43:21.920 the heart of the military industrial complex and Europe really 1:43:21.920 --> 1:43:25.120 can't keep up with the US production. Of course, the 1:43:25.200 --> 1:43:27.000 US being the heart of the military industrial complex does 1:43:27.080 --> 1:43:29.200 mean that a lot of Trump donors will probably be 1:43:29.240 --> 1:43:32.080 able to leave ridge of their donations to his campaign, 1:43:32.200 --> 1:43:34.080 and so we might not see as much of a 1:43:34.160 --> 1:43:37.479 drawdown of Bay to Ukraine as we're worrying about here. 1:43:38.640 --> 1:43:41.120 May talking of launching things from a long distance at 1:43:41.160 --> 1:43:43.040 a very small target, I would like to launch these 1:43:43.120 --> 1:43:49.120 advertisements from iHeart mean the advertising department directly to your ears, Heiger. 1:44:00.479 --> 1:44:01.439 It's all so bad. 1:44:02.280 --> 1:44:05.519 As we were recording this, it's come out that the 1:44:05.520 --> 1:44:08.400 new Secretary of Defense is going to be Pete Hegseth, 1:44:08.520 --> 1:44:10.679 who's like a Fox News guy who doesn't believe germs 1:44:10.680 --> 1:44:11.080 are real. 1:44:11.520 --> 1:44:14.280 Yeah, this guy who has not washed his hands in 1:44:14.320 --> 1:44:15.800 ten years. 1:44:15.840 --> 1:44:18.800 Great. I mean at least he might die of COVID. Yeah. 1:44:18.800 --> 1:44:21.840 I was gonna say he made it. Wow. Sorry that 1:44:21.840 --> 1:44:24.559 that that hair is really something. Oh that's not good 1:44:24.600 --> 1:44:27.160 at all. Yeah. 1:44:27.200 --> 1:44:33.040 Wait what On June fourteenth, twenty fifteen, hag Seth accidentally 1:44:33.120 --> 1:44:36.120 hit a west poind juror with an act a live 1:44:36.240 --> 1:44:41.040 cube like, oh, I think it was incredible. 1:44:43.120 --> 1:44:50.200 Let's have that link pulled up. Alright, this video is unavailable, 1:44:50.479 --> 1:44:53.200 all right, No, we're finding this video that nothing disappears 1:44:53.200 --> 1:45:06.920 from the internet. All right, here we go. No, my god, 1:45:08.920 --> 1:45:15.479 this is just clown ship. Like I need to write. Listen, 1:45:16.000 --> 1:45:18.360 if you were hit in the dick and balls by 1:45:18.400 --> 1:45:24.240 an act thrown by future Defense secretary, please contact cool 1:45:24.360 --> 1:45:34.000 Zone Media. iHeartMedia dot com. I hope the VA is 1:45:34.000 --> 1:45:35.440 paying for this man's benefits. 1:45:36.840 --> 1:45:40.240 It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen someone do. Like, 1:45:40.400 --> 1:45:44.280 in the course of reporting for this show. Yeah, it's amazing, 1:45:44.600 --> 1:45:49.639 like very funny. Again, please contact us. I hope you're okay. 1:45:50.479 --> 1:45:54.719 Service related injury. Yeah, so that's that's peak. 1:45:54.760 --> 1:45:59.920 Hegg Seth, right, future sec def also former reservist who 1:46:00.000 --> 1:46:02.760 who deployed to Guantanamo as an Indiant try platoon leader 1:46:02.760 --> 1:46:07.080 at Guantanamo. I think he also deployed to Afghanistan in 1:46:07.160 --> 1:46:09.600 twenty twelve, and previously he'd also deployed to Iraq. He 1:46:09.640 --> 1:46:12.320 did voluntary two voluntary deployments or he's in two locations 1:46:12.320 --> 1:46:15.559 in IRAQII. So he's hit the greatest hits of US 1:46:16.080 --> 1:46:18.719 foreign policy in the last twenty years. I guess he's 1:46:18.760 --> 1:46:20.719 made his career as a Fox News pundit. 1:46:21.040 --> 1:46:22.639 Yeah, he's just like a right wing gooul. 1:46:23.120 --> 1:46:26.200 Yeah. I mean in the last Trump administration when he 1:46:26.280 --> 1:46:31.400 was punditing, he advised Trump had been considering pardoning several 1:46:31.439 --> 1:46:35.080 war criminals and did pardon several war criminals. Right, and 1:46:35.120 --> 1:46:37.360 Hexseth was one of the people who A he talked 1:46:37.360 --> 1:46:39.400 about on Fox News, well he was advising Trump to 1:46:39.400 --> 1:46:41.280 do it, and B he was advising Trump to do it. 1:46:41.360 --> 1:46:42.000 Jesus Christ. 1:46:42.360 --> 1:46:44.640 Yeah, you can read up about the Trump partons of 1:46:44.640 --> 1:46:45.240 war criminals. 1:46:45.560 --> 1:46:47.920 It's bad enough that a guy was getting turned in 1:46:47.960 --> 1:46:50.639 by his own Special Forces unit, Like do you know 1:46:50.720 --> 1:46:51.280 how bad? 1:46:51.720 --> 1:46:52.960 How like fucking hideous? 1:46:52.960 --> 1:46:55.920 The shit you have to do is for like for 1:46:56.040 --> 1:46:58.960 like your own guys in a special Forces unit to 1:46:58.960 --> 1:47:00.000 be like, holy. 1:46:59.760 --> 1:47:03.320 Shit, we have to stop this guy. Yeah, Like it's awful. 1:47:03.680 --> 1:47:06.080 Yeah, I mean if you should look up Clint Laurance's 1:47:06.120 --> 1:47:10.400 stuff as well, like l O I NC if you're 1:47:10.439 --> 1:47:13.320 interested in this stuff. He was convicted I think of 1:47:13.439 --> 1:47:16.120 two murder accounts for ordering his soldiers to fire and 1:47:16.200 --> 1:47:19.120 unarmed people. And then yeah, the other one was a 1:47:19.120 --> 1:47:22.840 Green Beret named Matt Goltschin who was also charged with 1:47:22.880 --> 1:47:25.559 the murder of someone in Afghanistan, someone who had been 1:47:25.800 --> 1:47:29.599 making IDs. So like, I think we can see where 1:47:29.600 --> 1:47:31.599 this guy is going. We've just found this out as 1:47:31.600 --> 1:47:35.600 well as we're recording for context. Like that's quite troubling. Yeah. 1:47:35.680 --> 1:47:38.760 His other two foreign policy appointments that I've seen so 1:47:38.920 --> 1:47:42.880 far have been less so look, i'd say less so. 1:47:43.200 --> 1:47:45.880 Marco Rubio is a third right, Like, I think we 1:47:45.920 --> 1:47:48.000 all know that I share very little with Marco Rubio 1:47:48.640 --> 1:47:52.280 on Turkey and Rajaba. He is good. He is not 1:47:52.360 --> 1:47:56.400 a fan of Verta one. He's in contact with Googlanists. 1:47:57.000 --> 1:47:59.360 He kind of puts Turkey in the in the bricks 1:47:59.400 --> 1:48:03.720 box is a good yeah, which which leads us to 1:48:03.880 --> 1:48:07.719 the very funny idea of Marco Rubio ordering a drone 1:48:07.720 --> 1:48:08.679 strike on airicc Adams. 1:48:08.720 --> 1:48:10.960 I mean, well, here's the thing though, Good's dead now, 1:48:11.320 --> 1:48:14.160 so so like there's like a secession crisis of like 1:48:14.160 --> 1:48:20.799 who's gonna. 1:48:14.640 --> 1:48:22.639 Have the goodinist anti pope Mark Rubio. Yeah, that could 1:48:22.680 --> 1:48:25.280 be very good for Rajava at least right the big 1:48:25.360 --> 1:48:30.960 concern among those of us who carry deeply about Rajava 1:48:31.160 --> 1:48:32.880 has been that Trump will abandon them as he did 1:48:32.960 --> 1:48:35.479 in the past. Right, And so I guess we're looking 1:48:35.479 --> 1:48:40.240 for glimmers of hope. And I think Rubio kind of, oddly, 1:48:40.479 --> 1:48:44.160 weirdly was one. Compared to I was expecting more of 1:48:44.200 --> 1:48:47.200 the hegths, like Fox News commentator type people in foreign 1:48:47.200 --> 1:48:51.320 policy positions, because Trump fundamentally doesn't care about foreign policy, 1:48:51.360 --> 1:48:53.519 and like it's an area where he can kind of 1:48:53.640 --> 1:48:57.280 give something to those kind of like insane far right 1:48:57.840 --> 1:49:01.760 commentator types. He all also did appoint Mark Waltz. I 1:49:01.760 --> 1:49:04.400 think could be Wolls He's one of the first special 1:49:04.600 --> 1:49:08.200 Army special forces guys serving Congress, maybe the first as 1:49:08.240 --> 1:49:10.559 a national security advisor. Walls is a member of the 1:49:10.600 --> 1:49:15.280 Kurdish Caucus in Congress, so again positive for his JA there. 1:49:15.800 --> 1:49:19.080 Talking of Army special forces, there's one more insane Trump 1:49:19.120 --> 1:49:22.479 foreign policy proposal that I want to discuss, and that 1:49:22.640 --> 1:49:29.080 is his desire to use the United States Army in Mexico. 1:49:29.600 --> 1:49:31.920 I'm just going to read from his campaign website here. 1:49:32.240 --> 1:49:35.479 President Trump will take down the drug cartels just as 1:49:35.479 --> 1:49:38.360 he took down ISIS. He will impose a total naval 1:49:38.360 --> 1:49:41.559 embargo on cartels, order the Department of Defense to inflict 1:49:41.600 --> 1:49:45.840 maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations, and designate cartels 1:49:45.840 --> 1:49:49.200 as foreign terrorist organizations and choke off the access to 1:49:49.200 --> 1:49:52.599 the global financial system. President Trump will get the full 1:49:52.600 --> 1:49:56.040 cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels or else 1:49:56.080 --> 1:49:59.200 expose every bribe and kick back allows these criminal networks 1:49:59.240 --> 1:50:02.479 to preserve their rain. He will ask Congress to ensure 1:50:02.520 --> 1:50:05.200 that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the death penalty. 1:50:05.960 --> 1:50:08.920 There's a lot there. The way that Donald Trump helped 1:50:09.120 --> 1:50:13.360 defeat ISIS was exclusively by bombing things and with some 1:50:13.479 --> 1:50:16.479 small contributions from US grand troops, but we don't really 1:50:16.520 --> 1:50:19.479 have a partner force in Mexico like that, and I think, 1:50:19.800 --> 1:50:22.600 especially with the new administration in Mexico and especially with 1:50:22.640 --> 1:50:27.679 Trump proposing one hundred percent tariffs on Mexican goods, we're 1:50:27.760 --> 1:50:33.200 unlikely to find one. Which leaves the very strange kind 1:50:33.200 --> 1:50:39.600 of prospect of US troops carrying out like unapproved, undeconflicted 1:50:39.640 --> 1:50:43.559 hits on Mexican nationals in Mexico, which like it's an 1:50:43.560 --> 1:50:44.080 act of war. 1:50:44.320 --> 1:50:45.160 Yeah, you are. 1:50:45.080 --> 1:50:47.479 Invading Mexico, is what you're doing. I should point out 1:50:47.520 --> 1:50:50.759 that the Bortac under Biden did shoot one Mexican national 1:50:51.520 --> 1:50:54.880 this year, who was he was holding up migrants with 1:50:54.920 --> 1:50:57.240 a gun. He's rubbing with a gun. It wasn't It's 1:50:57.240 --> 1:50:59.599 a place where I've been dozens of times where they 1:50:59.600 --> 1:51:02.120 shot here and they didn't seem to be much fuffle 1:51:02.160 --> 1:51:04.639 about that. But that is not invading Mexico. 1:51:05.240 --> 1:51:07.920 Yeah, like if they're invading Mexico, like you knows, as 1:51:08.000 --> 1:51:11.080 close as American Mexican sort of security cooperation has been 1:51:11.080 --> 1:51:15.360 and as many people as that's killed from the Mexican side, 1:51:15.439 --> 1:51:17.360 like that's oh boy. 1:51:17.640 --> 1:51:19.800 Yeah, Like it remains to be seen how much of 1:51:19.880 --> 1:51:22.720 this actually happens. Right, Mexico has a new president, the 1:51:22.840 --> 1:51:25.519 United States has a new president. They're not exactly politically 1:51:25.560 --> 1:51:27.040 fellow travelers, I'll say that. 1:51:27.520 --> 1:51:29.720 But yeah, I mean, I will say, like Armlow and 1:51:29.760 --> 1:51:33.160 Trump got along like decently. Well, yeah, largely off of 1:51:33.200 --> 1:51:35.880 Omblows like anti immigrant policies, but I don't know if 1:51:35.880 --> 1:51:37.959 that's going to work with China bomb. 1:51:38.040 --> 1:51:40.760 Like and like in the final year of Armlow, like 1:51:40.800 --> 1:51:43.719 they definitely they did a lot to help Biden within 1:51:44.320 --> 1:51:47.800 effectively enforcing US border policy by deporting people's South people 1:51:47.840 --> 1:51:49.559 I spoke to me the Darien series have been sent 1:51:49.560 --> 1:51:53.160 so off again this week. But Biden's had actually some 1:51:53.200 --> 1:51:57.840 pretty high profile cartel arrests right within Cineloa cartel. He's 1:51:57.920 --> 1:52:01.360 destabilized that cartel, but has happened within the US. They 1:52:01.680 --> 1:52:04.160 didn't send teams into into Mexico, and the way that 1:52:04.200 --> 1:52:07.920 the US has traditionally got hold of cartel leaders before 1:52:08.000 --> 1:52:09.800 is going to be arrested in Mexico in cooperation with 1:52:09.920 --> 1:52:13.599 Mexican government forces, be they police or military, and then 1:52:13.640 --> 1:52:16.759 extraducted them to the US trial and that doesn't seem 1:52:16.800 --> 1:52:20.280 to be what Trump is proposing. But again, like the 1:52:20.320 --> 1:52:23.599 bombastic rhetoric and the reality are sometimes very different. 1:52:24.080 --> 1:52:24.280 Yeah. 1:52:24.400 --> 1:52:27.240 I have some vague memory that he, like last time, 1:52:27.320 --> 1:52:30.479 he wanted to like send Special Forces guys to do this, 1:52:30.640 --> 1:52:32.519 and his advisors were like, what the fuck are you 1:52:32.560 --> 1:52:36.000 talking about. We can't send Yeah, like people in New Mexico. 1:52:36.400 --> 1:52:36.639 Yeah. 1:52:36.720 --> 1:52:40.960 Look, just to be real, those organizations have reached inside 1:52:41.000 --> 1:52:45.640 the United States and that would be an extremely messy situation. Yeah, 1:52:46.000 --> 1:52:49.240 and like the way this would have to be done, right, Like, 1:52:49.280 --> 1:52:51.000 I don't think you can do this with drone strikes. 1:52:51.080 --> 1:52:52.679 That you have to do this with boots on the ground, 1:52:52.720 --> 1:52:55.320 and that's going to be contrary to what he's promised 1:52:55.320 --> 1:52:57.280 to do, which is not risk more US soldiers' lives. 1:52:58.280 --> 1:53:00.439 Who knows what this will actually look like. 1:53:00.520 --> 1:53:02.479 Yeah, my guess is you will find a way to 1:53:02.479 --> 1:53:04.040 get the maxim umousivilians killed. 1:53:04.520 --> 1:53:08.040 Yes, yeah, yeah, we would himself. Yeah, it's that's probably 1:53:08.080 --> 1:53:09.120 would be the result of this. 1:53:09.800 --> 1:53:11.920 Yeah, exactly. And I think as you sort of wein 1:53:12.000 --> 1:53:15.320 this down, like civilian deaths are probably going to increase. Right, 1:53:15.400 --> 1:53:18.240 He's never shown himself to be unduly concerned about those things. 1:53:18.439 --> 1:53:20.640 He doesn't see that the problem. The second thing the 1:53:20.760 --> 1:53:25.080 US will lose is what Joseph Nay called soft power, right, 1:53:25.200 --> 1:53:28.719 which is like the power to influence people without projecting force, 1:53:29.200 --> 1:53:32.240 cultural power, cultural capitals. Body. You might have called it 1:53:32.840 --> 1:53:35.720 really getting heavy on the university shit at the back 1:53:35.800 --> 1:53:39.240 half of this episode. The US lost a lot of 1:53:39.280 --> 1:53:41.160 that in the first Trump term, right, and it will 1:53:41.200 --> 1:53:43.320 lose more of it in the second Trump term. Some 1:53:43.360 --> 1:53:46.519 of that is, you know, the the US maybe shouldn't 1:53:46.520 --> 1:53:48.559 be influencing, and the US has had some pretty malign 1:53:48.680 --> 1:53:51.439 influence around the world. You can listen to a song 1:53:51.479 --> 1:53:54.479 called Washington Bullet to learn more about it. But it 1:53:54.520 --> 1:53:57.479 will mean that, like there will be a space for 1:53:57.600 --> 1:54:00.840 other bad actors, right, Russia, China, You know that le 1:54:00.920 --> 1:54:04.040 Russia has not shown itself to be any more concerned 1:54:04.040 --> 1:54:05.920 with human rights, and probably less so than than the 1:54:06.040 --> 1:54:09.439 United States went in in and it's time in Syria, right, 1:54:09.600 --> 1:54:12.240 it's been an unmitigated disaster for the Syrian people. The 1:54:12.320 --> 1:54:15.360 Russian cooperation with your side regime. We do not need 1:54:15.479 --> 1:54:18.839 more of that around the world. The Wagners to Africa 1:54:18.880 --> 1:54:23.000 Core deployments in Africa have been horrific in terms of 1:54:23.080 --> 1:54:26.080 human rights, and this will open more spaces for that. 1:54:26.600 --> 1:54:30.560 So yeah, I mean it doesn't look great this secretive appointment. 1:54:30.760 --> 1:54:33.920 Maybe we'll learn more about that in the coming days, 1:54:34.160 --> 1:54:37.560 but that doesn't look great. There are some bright spots 1:54:37.600 --> 1:54:40.400 for a Java. I guess there's some glimmers of hope there, 1:54:40.440 --> 1:54:43.880 which is a nice thing. Trump's policy on Gaza fits 1:54:43.920 --> 1:54:46.960 with this general model of like he wants to end conflicts, 1:54:47.000 --> 1:54:50.000 and the way he sees of doing that is doing 1:54:50.040 --> 1:54:54.600 away with any restraint in terms of civilian casualties. And 1:54:54.680 --> 1:54:57.040 so the way that he went after isis was to 1:54:57.080 --> 1:54:59.680 just say bomb them all. I can see him doing 1:54:59.720 --> 1:55:02.880 the same thing in Gaza, right, just saying like he 1:55:02.920 --> 1:55:04.280 wants to claim that he bought an end to the 1:55:04.320 --> 1:55:06.720 war and he doesn't care how many bodies he's standing 1:55:06.720 --> 1:55:09.520 on when he says that. Yeah, same thing in Lebanon, obviously. 1:55:09.920 --> 1:55:12.720 So yeah, these are not great things. These are things 1:55:12.760 --> 1:55:16.080 that we will have to deal with for decades to come, 1:55:16.280 --> 1:55:20.680 whatever happens. And I guess the way that you can 1:55:20.720 --> 1:55:22.520 do something here like why a little glimmer of hope, 1:55:22.520 --> 1:55:25.000 It's like you can reach out to people all around 1:55:25.000 --> 1:55:27.040 the world and let them know that, like, even if 1:55:27.040 --> 1:55:30.680 America's foreign policy is shit, you're not. I have sat 1:55:30.720 --> 1:55:33.400 in ro Java and I have seen them taking the 1:55:33.480 --> 1:55:36.280 children to the hospitals, and I've watched the US soldiers 1:55:36.280 --> 1:55:39.480 sit in their bases and do nothing, and like it 1:55:39.520 --> 1:55:42.320 didn't help. Really I didn't. I wasn't able to do 1:55:42.440 --> 1:55:45.200 very much. I couldn't even give blood. But I was 1:55:45.200 --> 1:55:47.200 able to be there with them, and maybe they're meant something, 1:55:47.280 --> 1:55:49.840 and like you can, you can do little things to 1:55:49.880 --> 1:55:52.520 show your solidarity around the world because there won't be 1:55:52.600 --> 1:55:54.160 much of it coming from the government. 1:56:12.960 --> 1:56:16.720 What have y'all welcome to It already happened here because 1:56:17.480 --> 1:56:20.840 this was the goal of this show, was to tell 1:56:20.920 --> 1:56:23.640 you that things was probably going to happen here, and 1:56:23.680 --> 1:56:24.240 then it did. 1:56:25.440 --> 1:56:27.760 I am not one of the normal hosts, as you 1:56:27.800 --> 1:56:28.280 can tell. 1:56:28.640 --> 1:56:31.840 I am your your friendly cousin that shows up every 1:56:31.880 --> 1:56:34.560 once in a while during the holidays. And if your 1:56:34.560 --> 1:56:37.400 cousins are anything like my cousins, which means we're immediately 1:56:37.440 --> 1:56:40.840 going to get in trouble because parents are gonna blame 1:56:40.880 --> 1:56:44.720 you since I'm the cousin, because it's not my fault, 1:56:45.000 --> 1:56:46.000 because I'm the guest. 1:56:46.320 --> 1:56:48.080 Anyway, we want. 1:56:47.920 --> 1:56:50.400 To talk about some stuff that, like, in some senses, 1:56:50.480 --> 1:56:53.960 is a bit absurd to talk about, because like the 1:56:54.000 --> 1:56:57.960 American understanding of pan ethnic terms and demographics are. 1:56:57.960 --> 1:57:00.680 Just oh god, sir, yes, it. 1:57:00.680 --> 1:57:01.440 Just don't make sense. 1:57:01.640 --> 1:57:05.400 Like nobody in the group identifies as what the group 1:57:05.520 --> 1:57:07.400 is called, but that's still the group, right. 1:57:07.840 --> 1:57:10.040 I recommend a book called white Fish Don't Exist. It's 1:57:10.040 --> 1:57:10.560 a great book. 1:57:10.880 --> 1:57:17.680 I'm here with the brilliant, brilliant meta wong. 1:57:17.720 --> 1:57:21.680 What's up, miya, It's it's all happening. It's it's all 1:57:21.680 --> 1:57:22.200 happening here. 1:57:22.320 --> 1:57:26.480 It sucks, but at least I'm getting great interests, the 1:57:26.560 --> 1:57:28.160 best what I've ever gotten. 1:57:28.280 --> 1:57:29.400 Best best interest. 1:57:29.400 --> 1:57:30.800 That's what I come for, you know what I'm saying, 1:57:30.840 --> 1:57:32.520 Like I come for us to be able to have 1:57:32.600 --> 1:57:35.800 pancakes for breakfast, you know, because your cousin's here. You 1:57:35.840 --> 1:57:37.160 know what I'm saying, So you get to have like 1:57:37.200 --> 1:57:40.600 pancakes for breakfast, and you know, stand in your pajamas longer, 1:57:40.720 --> 1:57:42.040 like it's great when your cousins are here. 1:57:42.840 --> 1:57:43.720 Yeah, yea. 1:57:44.280 --> 1:57:45.880 Anyway, so let's do this. 1:57:45.920 --> 1:57:48.360 We want to talk about Well, the thing is, like 1:57:49.600 --> 1:57:52.360 I don't know if y'all have admitted. I admitted this 1:57:52.440 --> 1:57:55.400 on our show that like we kind of had to 1:57:55.440 --> 1:57:59.480 have all hands on deck discussion here as to like, Okay, 1:57:59.520 --> 1:58:02.160 let's get to our organized like, let's figure out what 1:58:02.200 --> 1:58:06.720 we're going to say as a network and kind of 1:58:06.720 --> 1:58:09.560 brainstorm things to talk about, because I'm pretty sure like 1:58:10.160 --> 1:58:12.360 a lot of us are still like wait, what the fuck? 1:58:13.200 --> 1:58:18.360 I'm sorry what like, you know, and us holding down 1:58:18.680 --> 1:58:23.400 the DEI section of cool Zoe, you know, we are 1:58:23.600 --> 1:58:27.560 the diversity, equity and inclusion over here. Figured you know, 1:58:28.040 --> 1:58:30.760 there were some things that were super shocking around some 1:58:30.880 --> 1:58:33.560 of the data that was coming back from the exit polls. 1:58:33.640 --> 1:58:37.240 As we thought about like okay, so who actually voted 1:58:37.280 --> 1:58:38.000 for who. 1:58:38.040 --> 1:58:38.800 And how much? 1:58:39.040 --> 1:58:41.960 And so we kind of wanted to talk about the 1:58:42.520 --> 1:58:45.920 Asian vote, right yep, which is again from the intro, 1:58:46.160 --> 1:58:48.000 it's an absurd category to. 1:58:48.000 --> 1:58:52.120 Say that, yeah, totally, Yeah. 1:58:51.960 --> 1:58:55.600 The Latino vote, which is also equally as absurd as 1:58:55.600 --> 1:58:56.360 a category. 1:58:56.840 --> 1:58:57.920 And yeah, just. 1:58:57.880 --> 1:59:02.040 Where some of the sort of marginalized groups, like some 1:59:02.120 --> 1:59:04.760 of the numbers that were in some way shocking. I 1:59:04.800 --> 1:59:07.960 will say, as far as holding down the black man section, 1:59:08.120 --> 1:59:11.680 I am very proud of us for eventually coming back home, 1:59:12.120 --> 1:59:16.480 right and voting in the upper eighty percent for the 1:59:16.520 --> 1:59:20.280 black woman, you know, which was encouraging. Now, granted our 1:59:20.440 --> 1:59:27.000 number of how many of us voted shrike immensely, you know, 1:59:27.880 --> 1:59:30.320 But either way, we just wanted to talk about those things. 1:59:30.320 --> 1:59:32.280 And I think one caveat for me, I would say, 1:59:32.280 --> 1:59:34.280 and then I'll turn it over. I think Mia, like 1:59:34.480 --> 1:59:36.520 you know, you can take it on from there. Is 1:59:37.200 --> 1:59:40.000 I am, in fact a black man, So I think 1:59:40.160 --> 1:59:43.120 I can speak from a certain level of experience. Obviously 1:59:43.160 --> 1:59:46.000 not the experience of every human, right, but I can 1:59:46.000 --> 1:59:48.040 speak from a certain level of experience. Now as we 1:59:48.080 --> 1:59:51.720 talk about the Latino vote, I am, in fact, news flash, 1:59:51.760 --> 1:59:54.320 not Latino. You know what I'm saying. My wife is 1:59:54.720 --> 1:59:58.160 from East LA. But obviously proximity is not the same 1:59:58.520 --> 2:00:03.640 as being a member of so keep that in mind 2:00:03.760 --> 2:00:06.720 as we discuss these things. 2:00:07.200 --> 2:00:09.400 So let me turn it over to turn it over 2:00:09.440 --> 2:00:09.640 to me. 2:00:10.360 --> 2:00:13.800 Yeah, and you know this is one of these you're 2:00:13.840 --> 2:00:17.040 talking a bit about the sort of category and coherence here, right, 2:00:17.080 --> 2:00:20.520 And like one of the things about the way this 2:00:20.600 --> 2:00:24.800 is aggregated is that so Asian Americans as a whole 2:00:25.320 --> 2:00:27.920 went about five percent to the right in this election, 2:00:28.920 --> 2:00:31.840 but that doesn't capture what was going on, because every 2:00:31.920 --> 2:00:33.880 part of the demographics were just sort of flying in 2:00:33.920 --> 2:00:39.200 every direction, and unfortunately, most of the actual right wing 2:00:39.320 --> 2:00:42.800 pull was very specifically from my people, which is to say, 2:00:42.880 --> 2:00:44.760 Chinese Americans who went right. 2:00:44.720 --> 2:00:46.400 In staggering numbers. 2:00:47.040 --> 2:00:51.040 Yeah, I don't know, I'm not really surprised by because 2:00:51.120 --> 2:00:54.920 this has just been the way that sort of specifically 2:00:55.040 --> 2:00:57.800 Chinese American communities have been shifting for the past I 2:00:57.800 --> 2:01:04.320 mean really like eight years, but particularly intensifying since twenty twenty. Yeah. 2:01:04.520 --> 2:01:08.320 And so if you look at sort of where these 2:01:08.360 --> 2:01:10.760 things happened, the biggest ones were New York and LA, 2:01:11.160 --> 2:01:14.480 and you know, places like Seattle had some shifts, But 2:01:14.560 --> 2:01:17.920 I think New York in particular, UK and LA in 2:01:17.960 --> 2:01:21.040 particular are important for this because a huge part of 2:01:21.080 --> 2:01:23.960 the reason that this happened was the sort of crime 2:01:24.000 --> 2:01:27.520 panic stuff. Yeah, and the crime padic didn't one hundred 2:01:27.560 --> 2:01:29.920 percent start with Chinese Americans, but it's one of the 2:01:29.960 --> 2:01:33.880 earliest sort of incubators of this entire thing. So the 2:01:33.920 --> 2:01:36.520 sort of trajectory of this is that in twenty twenty 2:01:36.600 --> 2:01:40.360 you have this sort of like whole stop Asian hate campaign, right, 2:01:40.560 --> 2:01:43.360 and you know, yeah, you have all this race like 2:01:43.400 --> 2:01:45.480 sort of like racist like ascitement. 2:01:45.080 --> 2:01:48.400 Of violence, and you get sort of two responses to it. 2:01:48.480 --> 2:01:48.720 Right. 2:01:48.760 --> 2:01:51.800 There's the kind of like liberal ish response, which is 2:01:51.800 --> 2:01:55.960 stop Asian hate, but it's kind of vacuous and doesn't 2:01:56.440 --> 2:02:00.760 doesn't really have any political content at all. It's kind 2:02:00.760 --> 2:02:03.560 of vaguely anti Trump, but like there's not much there. 2:02:03.880 --> 2:02:05.800 And then there's the right ring response. And the right 2:02:05.840 --> 2:02:08.959 ring response is just okay, like there, we're just gonna blame. 2:02:08.720 --> 2:02:09.440 Black people for this. 2:02:09.960 --> 2:02:13.760 Yeah, and that's like fucking horseshit. It's like, no, it 2:02:13.840 --> 2:02:16.360 was almost everyone which is getting killed by white people, 2:02:16.360 --> 2:02:19.520 because that's almost all the way racial violence works in 2:02:19.520 --> 2:02:20.520 this country, right. 2:02:20.440 --> 2:02:21.800 Yeah, yeah. 2:02:22.360 --> 2:02:26.080 But unfortunately, you know, this was an area where the 2:02:26.280 --> 2:02:31.720 left kind of just did nothing. And if you look 2:02:31.760 --> 2:02:33.680 at left response, you know, there's there's there's some people 2:02:33.680 --> 2:02:35.840 who did stuff, right there is you know, like some 2:02:35.880 --> 2:02:39.000 sex worker orgs like Red Canary Song did some great work. 2:02:39.320 --> 2:02:44.160 But most of the rest of the American left saw 2:02:44.280 --> 2:02:46.880 this and was like, Okay, the thing that matters here, 2:02:46.960 --> 2:02:48.840 and the actual problem with anti Asian violence is that 2:02:48.880 --> 2:02:51.960 people are criticizing the Chinese government too much and that's 2:02:51.960 --> 2:02:54.560 what's causing this, and so we need to defend the CCP. 2:02:55.800 --> 2:03:01.160 And this is just politically, this is fucking radioactive to like, yeah, 2:03:01.320 --> 2:03:05.840 eighty ninety percent of like fucking Nasian Americans because like, yeah, 2:03:05.920 --> 2:03:08.080 there's a sort of sort of combinations of factors, right. 2:03:08.160 --> 2:03:09.800 You have on the one hand, us sort of immigrant 2:03:09.800 --> 2:03:11.760 communities where most of this shit doesn't work because you're 2:03:11.800 --> 2:03:13.640 dealing with people who were like, I don't know, we're 2:03:13.640 --> 2:03:16.560 fucking sterilized by the government because the CCP decided to 2:03:16.760 --> 2:03:20.000 like do Malthusian fucking population control. 2:03:20.440 --> 2:03:22.640 Have no love for the CCP none whatsoever. 2:03:22.800 --> 2:03:24.840 Yeah, yeah, right, and then this this is all this 2:03:24.880 --> 2:03:26.480 is too reductive, even with Cubans. But it's like this 2:03:26.480 --> 2:03:27.960 isn't something where you could just sort of brush this 2:03:28.040 --> 2:03:29.960 away with like, oh, all of these people were like 2:03:30.000 --> 2:03:32.880 reactionaries from Taiwan or something like that. It's like, no, 2:03:32.960 --> 2:03:34.640 like a lot of these people came here very recently, 2:03:35.360 --> 2:03:38.040 and there are you know, there are sort of Tibetan communities. 2:03:38.080 --> 2:03:39.280 There's people from Shingjen here. 2:03:39.880 --> 2:03:41.840 Yeah, and all of those people, like all of the 2:03:41.880 --> 2:03:44.920 sort of pro CCP shit is radioactive and that's what 2:03:45.000 --> 2:03:46.880 was coming out of the American left. And the same 2:03:46.920 --> 2:03:48.480 thing with like sort of with with the Hong Kong 2:03:48.520 --> 2:03:51.520 movement right where there was like, you know, there was 2:03:51.560 --> 2:03:55.800 this really broad consensus amongst sort of American social democracy. 2:03:56.200 --> 2:03:58.120 You know, you're sort of like people who were like 2:03:58.160 --> 2:04:00.680 marginally she left of Birnie right, that stuff was all 2:04:00.720 --> 2:04:03.000 CIA stuff and it was bad, and that you should 2:04:03.000 --> 2:04:05.480 support the CCP, you know. I mean there are some 2:04:05.520 --> 2:04:08.240 tenet organizers, you do good work. We've had on the show, right, like, 2:04:08.280 --> 2:04:11.560 there are there are people trying to organize the communities, 2:04:11.560 --> 2:04:14.640 but like the mainstream left was just like fuck it, 2:04:14.680 --> 2:04:16.240 we don't care, we don't give a shit about you. 2:04:16.320 --> 2:04:18.720 Like the important thing about you being killed is that 2:04:18.760 --> 2:04:21.760 we can defend this fucking state that we like. Yeah, 2:04:22.000 --> 2:04:24.720 And so what happened to the stop Asian hate thing 2:04:25.080 --> 2:04:27.360 is that it got folded into the crime panic because 2:04:27.360 --> 2:04:29.880 the product of this was both the sort of right 2:04:29.920 --> 2:04:32.520 wing we're going to give you anti black racism as 2:04:32.560 --> 2:04:34.640 you're like, this is this is going to be your 2:04:34.640 --> 2:04:37.440 solution quote unquote to this, yeah, and the sort of 2:04:37.440 --> 2:04:40.360 stop Asian hate, like mainstream sort of liberal thing both 2:04:40.640 --> 2:04:43.880 just fed directly into carcuralism. And you know, so you 2:04:43.880 --> 2:04:46.160 started like it turned into this rallying cry for like 2:04:46.240 --> 2:04:50.360 hate crime bills, and then like increasing police presences and 2:04:50.400 --> 2:04:52.640 you know, like the fucking cops were like all over 2:04:52.640 --> 2:04:54.240 the place of this shit was happening, and you know, 2:04:54.280 --> 2:04:58.280 didn't do anything because they're cops, right. Like all of 2:04:58.320 --> 2:05:01.640 this fed into it went sort of seamlessly into the 2:05:01.640 --> 2:05:04.520 crime panic, where you could just feed all of these 2:05:04.560 --> 2:05:07.600 people of the sort of memory of the fear and 2:05:07.640 --> 2:05:10.000 the anger over like Asian people getting killed, and you 2:05:10.040 --> 2:05:11.640 could just lump that in with crime. 2:05:12.720 --> 2:05:14.560 And then these communities also. 2:05:14.640 --> 2:05:16.720 And when I say these communities, it's it's kind of 2:05:16.720 --> 2:05:22.080 important here to do like class breakdowns here too, because 2:05:22.080 --> 2:05:24.839 the big part of what's happening here is an alignment 2:05:24.840 --> 2:05:29.080 that I think, like if the Republicans could be like 2:05:29.560 --> 2:05:32.800 fifteen percent less racist or figure out how to channel 2:05:32.840 --> 2:05:35.520 the racism against one target at a time, a lot 2:05:35.520 --> 2:05:37.360 of these people would have fucking fled right in the 2:05:37.360 --> 2:05:37.880 first place. 2:05:37.920 --> 2:05:40.920 Because yes, yes, so I was gonna say, yeah, yeah. 2:05:40.760 --> 2:05:43.120 It's like it's like rich people, professionals and like small 2:05:43.160 --> 2:05:45.480 business owners. It's like, well, yeah, of course those people 2:05:45.520 --> 2:05:49.440 are like unbelievably sort of turbo hardline reactionarias. It's like, yeah, 2:05:49.760 --> 2:05:51.320 those are the guys who are like shooting at people 2:05:51.320 --> 2:05:53.520 from the rooftops and fucking LA and ID two. 2:05:53.840 --> 2:05:54.120 Yeah. 2:05:54.160 --> 2:05:56.560 But these same people in China, like in Taiwan, in 2:05:56.600 --> 2:05:58.520 Hong Kong, like, these are people that if you were 2:05:58.520 --> 2:06:00.320 on the left you would just be fighting every day. 2:06:00.680 --> 2:06:03.200 But you know, they kind of had been lumped into 2:06:03.200 --> 2:06:06.920 the Democratic Party because of the just unbelievable racism from 2:06:06.960 --> 2:06:10.120 the Republicans, and now the sort of crime panic stuff 2:06:10.240 --> 2:06:13.760 has finally given them this thing where the Republican deal 2:06:13.840 --> 2:06:16.160 is basically like okay, if you're okay with sort of 2:06:16.160 --> 2:06:18.920 being anti black with us, if you're okay with massive 2:06:18.960 --> 2:06:21.320 expansions of police presence, you're okay with us running on 2:06:21.760 --> 2:06:24.640 that right and also on anti homeless politics. That's been 2:06:24.640 --> 2:06:28.120 a huge, extremely effective thing Chicili among business owners. 2:06:28.120 --> 2:06:29.360 And I remember, God, I think I've. 2:06:29.240 --> 2:06:31.440 Told the story on air, but back when I was 2:06:31.440 --> 2:06:34.120 in Chicago, there was this library in Chinatown that I 2:06:34.200 --> 2:06:36.200 used to like, you know, it was an extra a 2:06:36.200 --> 2:06:37.560 bunch of shops, and so you could sort of you 2:06:37.560 --> 2:06:39.120 could get bakery food and you could go sit at 2:06:39.120 --> 2:06:42.000 these benches, and I came back to them in twenty 2:06:42.040 --> 2:06:45.040 twenty and the benches literally had had a thing drilled 2:06:45.040 --> 2:06:47.480 into the table threatening to arrest you if you sat 2:06:47.520 --> 2:06:49.760 at them for too long a right, and this is 2:06:49.800 --> 2:06:50.120 this is. 2:06:50.040 --> 2:06:51.480 Like twenty twenty, twenty twenty one. 2:06:51.640 --> 2:06:54.240 Yeah, so you know that the sort of anti homelessness 2:06:54.440 --> 2:06:58.520 stuff had started really really early there, and it's just hideous. 2:06:58.680 --> 2:07:00.480 And you know, these places of going to the right, 2:07:00.520 --> 2:07:03.560 they're electing Republicans and they're doing it because this kind 2:07:03.560 --> 2:07:08.400 of like Asian American petitqueourgeois like small business class and 2:07:09.160 --> 2:07:11.440 some of the sort of richer tech people, et cetera, 2:07:11.480 --> 2:07:14.080 et cetera, are swinging really really hard to the right. 2:07:14.760 --> 2:07:15.200 Yeah. 2:07:15.360 --> 2:07:18.600 Man, that actually connected so many dots for me. Like, 2:07:18.760 --> 2:07:20.920 first of all, like even to like the anti homeless thing, 2:07:21.000 --> 2:07:24.360 like you know, you start seeing that weird middle of. 2:07:24.280 --> 2:07:26.160 The bench arm rail yep. 2:07:26.360 --> 2:07:27.880 You know, like, well it's like that's so you won't 2:07:27.960 --> 2:07:30.320 lay on it, you know, That's that's why you did this. 2:07:30.440 --> 2:07:32.520 But like I hope what I'm about to say is 2:07:32.520 --> 2:07:34.040 not a trope, you know what I'm saying. It's just 2:07:34.120 --> 2:07:36.920 it's because of like the proximity that I've had with 2:07:36.960 --> 2:07:40.000 the Asian community in the sense that my stepmom's Filipino. 2:07:40.360 --> 2:07:42.400 You know, all the DJs I've all worked with, all 2:07:42.480 --> 2:07:44.640 these just hip hop. At some point in the nineties, 2:07:45.520 --> 2:07:48.360 the Filipinos took over. Yeah, I'm saying, so like that's 2:07:48.400 --> 2:07:51.040 been a lot of ways our community. But I found that, 2:07:51.760 --> 2:07:55.040 you know, the like proper Asian in the jungle Asian 2:07:55.080 --> 2:07:57.920 thing where it's like pending on your relationship with the 2:07:58.040 --> 2:08:02.000 United States is almost even. And if you identify as Asient, 2:08:02.120 --> 2:08:04.800 because you sit down ten Filipinos, like half of them 2:08:04.800 --> 2:08:07.040 going to say a Pacific islander, you know, the other 2:08:07.120 --> 2:08:08.720 have gonna say to Asian. The other have is gonna 2:08:08.720 --> 2:08:11.120 say the Asian Pacific Islander. And then and then my 2:08:11.240 --> 2:08:13.440 lord Cambodia right next to them, who are all in 2:08:13.520 --> 2:08:16.080 Long Beach and their crips, you know what I'm saying. 2:08:16.160 --> 2:08:17.839 So like that sort. 2:08:17.640 --> 2:08:21.040 Of world like they were with us, you know, as 2:08:21.040 --> 2:08:23.120 far as like they were just a part of our community, 2:08:23.600 --> 2:08:27.640 whereas the sort of northern kind of proper Asian world, 2:08:27.760 --> 2:08:30.480 like it's cities is like Alhambra, Monti Roy Park, this 2:08:30.480 --> 2:08:33.160 is very California stuff. But they stuck to themselves, you know, 2:08:33.320 --> 2:08:35.680 and they they saw a lot of the American things 2:08:35.800 --> 2:08:41.040 like this is pragmatic, like we're here to win, like 2:08:41.200 --> 2:08:44.560 you know, like so when you started having the Asian 2:08:44.600 --> 2:08:48.800 hate thing, like it's almost like now that you say it, 2:08:48.800 --> 2:08:51.960 it's like we just tied that community up into a 2:08:52.000 --> 2:08:54.880 bow and then handed them to the right, because this 2:08:55.000 --> 2:08:58.160 all happened at the same time as like the the 2:08:58.280 --> 2:09:00.560 anti affirmative action you know. 2:09:00.680 --> 2:09:02.959 Although I do want to say in the anti affirmative 2:09:02.960 --> 2:09:05.720 action stuff, because I think people mischaracterize what's going on 2:09:05.760 --> 2:09:08.640 with that. Asian Americans as a whole and as subgroups 2:09:08.680 --> 2:09:09.760 support affirmative action. 2:09:10.000 --> 2:09:11.320 Yes, very consistently. 2:09:11.560 --> 2:09:14.960 Every time they're polls, there's like sixty percent support for it, right, yeah, 2:09:15.160 --> 2:09:18.320 but there's like forty percent of these fucking dipshits who 2:09:18.360 --> 2:09:20.640 are like, yes, I don't know, you know, I'm like 2:09:20.640 --> 2:09:22.640 my sort of like classic age response to this is 2:09:22.680 --> 2:09:24.120 like I fucking did it. 2:09:24.160 --> 2:09:25.840 I was a terrible student. I fuck I got into 2:09:25.840 --> 2:09:26.720 the University of Chicago. 2:09:26.720 --> 2:09:28.600 Like you didn't take a fucking study harder, Like you're 2:09:28.640 --> 2:09:30.440 you're not the reason the reason you're not getting into 2:09:30.480 --> 2:09:33.600 these universities isn't because like black people are being allowed 2:09:33.600 --> 2:09:36.960 in it's because you suck, like fucking skill issue. 2:09:37.000 --> 2:09:38.240 What the fuck is wrong with really? 2:09:38.320 --> 2:09:40.800 Yeah, but like like there's there was this like class yeah, 2:09:40.840 --> 2:09:41.680 you know the sort of class. 2:09:41.680 --> 2:09:45.000 And I was gonna get to is this class distinction 2:09:45.240 --> 2:09:49.000 in the sense that from a black perspective, it was like, Yo, 2:09:49.120 --> 2:09:52.800 we rallied for y'all over the like stop Asian hate thing, 2:09:53.040 --> 2:09:55.040 you know what I mean. And then to come back 2:09:55.080 --> 2:09:58.920 around and see this again from a class perspective because 2:09:59.080 --> 2:10:01.280 kind of the same thing. And in a lot of 2:10:01.320 --> 2:10:04.320 ways in the black community, because the reasoning, as you 2:10:04.360 --> 2:10:05.800 say that, that's why I say it all makes sense. 2:10:05.840 --> 2:10:09.440 The reasoning is the same, like the system is not 2:10:09.640 --> 2:10:15.080 for me, so I'm just gonna get mine, Damn the community, 2:10:15.560 --> 2:10:17.320 you know what I'm saying, Like, I'm just gonna go 2:10:17.360 --> 2:10:20.320 get mine, you know. And so in the again in 2:10:20.360 --> 2:10:22.560 the black community, for those that swung right, it was 2:10:22.600 --> 2:10:25.960 just like like in some senses, they're like, well, why no, 2:10:26.040 --> 2:10:27.840 y'all are fucking racists, like you know what I'm saying. 2:10:27.840 --> 2:10:29.320 So I'd like as far as like the rights, like 2:10:29.360 --> 2:10:31.600 I know you are with the left, it was more 2:10:31.680 --> 2:10:35.080 like you're just gaslighting me yea. So well, if you're 2:10:35.120 --> 2:10:37.080 just gonna gaslight me and I already know that you 2:10:37.080 --> 2:10:38.959 hate me, well fuck it, I'm just gonna get mine, 2:10:39.080 --> 2:10:39.280 you know. 2:10:39.720 --> 2:10:40.880 And that becomes the thing. 2:10:41.000 --> 2:10:43.880 But as a community, like you said, you know, in 2:10:43.920 --> 2:10:45.760 the same way as far as like the beef between 2:10:45.840 --> 2:10:49.280 like the you know, the historical la riots like Chinese 2:10:49.280 --> 2:10:53.040 and Korean communities. While their parents were on this on 2:10:53.120 --> 2:10:55.320 the roofs of their of their shops shooting at us, 2:10:55.880 --> 2:10:58.440 they kids was breaking into the city. 2:10:58.440 --> 2:11:00.240 They was with us like that, breaking it to the 2:11:00.240 --> 2:11:00.720 same story. 2:11:00.760 --> 2:11:02.240 We'll just break it into you know. 2:11:02.400 --> 2:11:06.160 So that that class distinction was something that made us 2:11:06.240 --> 2:11:09.360 kind of be like, bro, like, don't you understand You'll 2:11:09.400 --> 2:11:12.840 never be one of them, They'll never really love you, you know. 2:11:13.240 --> 2:11:16.600 And I feel like even that sort of like appeal 2:11:18.040 --> 2:11:21.640 would lurch this group even further to be like, don't 2:11:21.640 --> 2:11:23.360 tell me who you are, don't tell me where they're 2:11:23.400 --> 2:11:25.800 They're giving me what I need, you know. So yeah, 2:11:25.920 --> 2:11:27.880 like I never thought about tying all that together and 2:11:27.920 --> 2:11:31.120 being that it being like a specific a Chinese lurching. 2:11:31.200 --> 2:11:32.120 Wow. I never thought of that. 2:11:32.760 --> 2:11:34.760 Yeah, And okay, you know you know what else sells 2:11:34.800 --> 2:11:36.480 products that are from China. 2:11:36.560 --> 2:11:40.480 It's these products and services support the podcast. 2:11:40.760 --> 2:11:49.000 We sell products from China. 2:11:54.040 --> 2:11:55.320 And we're back. 2:11:56.040 --> 2:11:57.760 So I think that there's one more thing I want 2:11:57.760 --> 2:12:00.200 to make sure I get to about the Chinese American 2:12:00.200 --> 2:12:02.480 stuff before we move on. And that's one of the 2:12:02.480 --> 2:12:05.080 things you kind of brought up earlier, was the insolarity, 2:12:05.720 --> 2:12:09.160 because part of what's going on here too is that 2:12:09.800 --> 2:12:12.920 there's a lot of Chinese immigrants and people who you know, 2:12:12.960 --> 2:12:16.080 you get communities there speaking like they're uspeaking like Kenzanese 2:12:16.120 --> 2:12:18.560 or Mandarin, and in a lot of cases, it's like 2:12:19.080 --> 2:12:22.600 you'll get these very very small, tight knit communities with 2:12:22.960 --> 2:12:26.760 people who are speaking like the provincial dialect that's like 2:12:27.280 --> 2:12:32.760 semi incomprehensible to other people, right, because it's like effectively. 2:12:32.320 --> 2:12:33.120 Its own language. 2:12:33.640 --> 2:12:35.640 And one of the problems here, and this is one 2:12:35.640 --> 2:12:37.400 of the places where the left shit the bed like 2:12:37.520 --> 2:12:41.680 wasn't doing a good organizing, right, And the consequence of 2:12:41.720 --> 2:12:43.280 this is that in these a lot of the things 2:12:43.280 --> 2:12:45.800 that we're getting put out in these spaces, the media 2:12:45.960 --> 2:12:50.600 is all unbelievably right wing. Yeah, right, there's Miles Guah 2:12:50.760 --> 2:12:55.240 who whatever, God like twelve years from now, when I 2:12:55.400 --> 2:12:57.240 finished the lab Leak episode, which is gonna be He's 2:12:57.280 --> 2:12:58.560 gonna be a big part of this was he was 2:12:58.560 --> 2:13:01.760 this Chinese billionaire who defected to the US and came 2:13:01.800 --> 2:13:04.560 here and ran one trillion scams and is currently going 2:13:04.640 --> 2:13:07.640 to prison for Like, yeah, I'm pretty sure he was 2:13:07.680 --> 2:13:09.760 the guy who's boat Steve Bannon was on when Steve 2:13:09.800 --> 2:13:11.920 Bannon got arrested by the Post office cops. 2:13:12.280 --> 2:13:14.840 So like this varsity level bad guy. 2:13:15.080 --> 2:13:17.120 Yeah, yeah, yeah, he was here. 2:13:17.200 --> 2:13:19.760 He was issuing passports from like a fake government in 2:13:19.800 --> 2:13:22.040 exile that he set up. He's running every scam in 2:13:22.080 --> 2:13:24.640 the entire world. But he's also you know, he's also 2:13:24.680 --> 2:13:26.320 one of the people. He started the whole lab Leak 2:13:26.800 --> 2:13:30.400 thing and he so he was flooding the like all 2:13:30.440 --> 2:13:33.960 all the sort of traininge language media with this hardline 2:13:34.080 --> 2:13:37.080 right wing sort of pro Republican, hardline anti China stuff. 2:13:37.120 --> 2:13:40.480 And then you have a very similar thing coming from 2:13:40.640 --> 2:13:45.440 the Falling Gong, who are everywhere in any every China town, 2:13:45.480 --> 2:13:49.120 there's Fallen Gong guys everywhere. They're posters, there are people, 2:13:49.320 --> 2:13:52.400 so they are cult. They run shan Yu. They run 2:13:52.440 --> 2:13:54.880 a newspaper called The Epak Times, which is just a 2:13:55.560 --> 2:14:00.640 pure fascist propaganda outlet, and those things kind of just 2:14:00.680 --> 2:14:04.080 like devoured the entire Chinese language media ecosystem. And it 2:14:04.120 --> 2:14:06.880 wasn't good before because like there are also a bunch 2:14:06.920 --> 2:14:09.640 of other weird right wing groups. Like part of the 2:14:09.640 --> 2:14:13.640 problem here too is it's possible for in sort of 2:14:13.680 --> 2:14:15.800 Asian American community for you to have two people who, 2:14:15.880 --> 2:14:20.200 in by American standards, have identical politics, right, they're identically 2:14:20.320 --> 2:14:23.560 right wing on things like racial politics, and they're like 2:14:23.800 --> 2:14:27.480 edi crime stuff, you know, who are incredibly sexist and 2:14:27.480 --> 2:14:29.680 like humblophobic, but they absolutely fucking hate each other because 2:14:29.720 --> 2:14:31.720 one of them is a pro CCP Chinese nationalist and 2:14:31.720 --> 2:14:33.600 one of them is an anti CCP Chinese nationalists. 2:14:33.640 --> 2:14:34.080 Wow. 2:14:34.280 --> 2:14:35.560 Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah. 2:14:35.600 --> 2:14:38.560 But this kind of like you know, what's been able 2:14:38.560 --> 2:14:41.240 to kind of weld that shit together is is this 2:14:41.320 --> 2:14:44.560 sort of like republican anti black off on crime campaign 2:14:44.560 --> 2:14:47.160 combined with all of this sort of media sphere stuff. 2:14:47.720 --> 2:14:48.040 Wow. 2:14:48.440 --> 2:14:51.200 Yeah, you know, it's Shad's rebellion all over again. 2:14:51.320 --> 2:14:54.440 Like just that at least you're not them, yeah, you know. 2:14:54.640 --> 2:14:58.160 And and yeah, like the simplicity of that right wing 2:14:58.200 --> 2:15:02.040 message of just like here's all your problems all your problems. 2:15:01.640 --> 2:15:03.360 Are those fools, and I'll just get rid of them. 2:15:03.440 --> 2:15:05.440 Yeah, and we can solve this with more cops and 2:15:05.520 --> 2:15:06.920 Donald Trump. We just solved war. 2:15:07.040 --> 2:15:08.680 Yeah, yeah, man. 2:15:09.080 --> 2:15:12.840 So form my end, I looked at the black and 2:15:12.920 --> 2:15:15.760 Latino vote. I can run through the black one pretty 2:15:15.840 --> 2:15:19.280 quick because it wasn't as interesting of a story and 2:15:19.440 --> 2:15:22.879 also because you know, we did an episode with Garrison 2:15:22.920 --> 2:15:27.080 Hayes from Mother Jones on like black conservatives and Trump voters. 2:15:27.080 --> 2:15:29.360 And I think ultimately it comes down to the fact 2:15:29.400 --> 2:15:33.080 of like the frans fer anand thought of like, okay, 2:15:33.120 --> 2:15:34.640 what is what is liberation? 2:15:34.840 --> 2:15:35.800 Like what is freedom? 2:15:35.960 --> 2:15:39.560 And is it you know, my ability to flourish without 2:15:39.600 --> 2:15:44.480 any hindrances or is it a collective ending of suffering? 2:15:44.480 --> 2:15:45.080 You know what I'm saying. 2:15:45.120 --> 2:15:48.520 So like, in other words, it's like this, this plantation 2:15:48.640 --> 2:15:51.800 would be better if I ran the big house rather 2:15:51.840 --> 2:15:54.720 than being like, burn the fucking big house down because 2:15:54.720 --> 2:15:57.040 there shouldn't be slavery, you know I'm saying, So like 2:15:57.480 --> 2:16:01.040 that sort of approach to a gain and the reality 2:16:01.120 --> 2:16:04.160 of why know, the system's not for me in a 2:16:04.160 --> 2:16:07.120 lot of ways. That's what's interesting about the understanding of it. 2:16:07.240 --> 2:16:09.080 So when you would look at somebody like a black person, 2:16:09.160 --> 2:16:10.920 like why would you vote for this racist man? And 2:16:10.920 --> 2:16:13.040 it's like, well, the same reason I would vote for 2:16:13.120 --> 2:16:15.360 every other racist man, you know what I'm saying, Like, which, 2:16:15.640 --> 2:16:18.560 find me one that ain't you know, so, like that 2:16:18.680 --> 2:16:22.040 attitude is already there, so you know, obviously all of 2:16:22.120 --> 2:16:24.920 us would push back and say that, like, well, you 2:16:25.080 --> 2:16:29.160 choosing yourself is also a vote against yourself and is 2:16:29.200 --> 2:16:33.360 destroying your community. Clearly, it's never worked at some point, 2:16:33.440 --> 2:16:35.920 you know, which I'm sure y'all can relate to. It's 2:16:35.959 --> 2:16:39.800 like I feel two ways when I see like black people, 2:16:39.879 --> 2:16:44.120 specifically black men, sit at this table, because I'm like, 2:16:44.640 --> 2:16:48.160 I can imagine the first joke that you kind of 2:16:48.200 --> 2:16:50.879 let slide that was like, I was kind of weird, 2:16:51.160 --> 2:16:53.960 but I don't know, it's no big deal. I'll get 2:16:53.959 --> 2:16:56.160 over it. Maybe maybe they didn't mean it, you know. 2:16:56.520 --> 2:16:58.720 And then that joke gets more and more intense, and 2:16:58.760 --> 2:17:01.080 then all of a sudden, you sitting in a room 2:17:01.640 --> 2:17:05.280 and they cracking jokes about Haitians eating pets and that 2:17:05.400 --> 2:17:07.120 Puerto Rico's a track, you know what I'm saying. It's 2:17:07.120 --> 2:17:10.279 like it didn't start there. It started with you accepting 2:17:11.080 --> 2:17:13.000 and just being like all lighten up, and at some 2:17:13.120 --> 2:17:15.959 point somebody said something to you and you made a 2:17:16.000 --> 2:17:19.600 face and they went, dude, just it's a joke, man, 2:17:19.640 --> 2:17:21.520 it's a joke. Come on, bro, you know me, You 2:17:21.600 --> 2:17:23.760 know me, right, you've had that. You know what I'm saying, 2:17:23.959 --> 2:17:25.840 and I know that happened a year ago, and now 2:17:25.879 --> 2:17:29.880 look at you. You know, so like eventually, the point 2:17:29.920 --> 2:17:32.880 I'm making is like, at some point you are going 2:17:32.920 --> 2:17:36.400 to have to lay down all of your identifying factors 2:17:36.400 --> 2:17:38.160 to be able to stay at this table. 2:17:38.480 --> 2:17:41.240 And I hope that. I hope that thirty year fixed 2:17:41.240 --> 2:17:42.040 mortgage was worth it. 2:17:42.760 --> 2:17:43.000 You know. 2:17:43.480 --> 2:17:46.400 So the black story is that it's like, what is 2:17:46.480 --> 2:17:51.560 going to get us the financial or get me specifically 2:17:52.520 --> 2:17:58.360 minds the financial freedom that the Democrats kept promising but 2:17:59.600 --> 2:18:01.840 never get to us. But that's, like I said, that's 2:18:01.879 --> 2:18:05.440 a much less interesting story, in my opinion, than the 2:18:05.560 --> 2:18:06.640 Latino vote, which we. 2:18:06.600 --> 2:18:08.520 Could talk about after this break. 2:18:20.200 --> 2:18:25.160 All right, so we're back now, sixty four percent right 2:18:25.400 --> 2:18:30.400 of air quotes, Latinos voted right wing this year. Now 2:18:30.959 --> 2:18:33.040 I feel like this, well I don't feel like I 2:18:33.080 --> 2:18:36.240 know this needs a lot of unpacking, because first of all, 2:18:36.280 --> 2:18:39.160 what the hell is the Latino, right is the first 2:18:39.240 --> 2:18:41.760 question that you have to ask. And essentially I find 2:18:41.760 --> 2:18:43.720 I figure, I think I've come to the fact that 2:18:43.760 --> 2:18:46.720 what America means by that is you were colonized by Spain, 2:18:47.320 --> 2:18:50.959 so in some way you kind of speak somewhat Spanish, 2:18:51.040 --> 2:18:53.959 unless it's Brazil, in which case you were colonized by 2:18:54.000 --> 2:18:56.440 the Portuguese. Right, So it's like, you don't even know 2:18:56.480 --> 2:18:58.320 what you mean, Like y'all don't even know. 2:18:58.280 --> 2:18:58.720 What you mean. 2:18:58.720 --> 2:19:01.000 It's sort of it's agree that, like one of our 2:19:01.040 --> 2:19:05.280 primary demographic categories was invented by a coalition of like 2:19:05.720 --> 2:19:10.680 Maoists and like Vietnamese Merxist Leninist that fell apart immediately 2:19:10.840 --> 2:19:13.440 the moment that China invade Vietnam. And that's only our 2:19:13.600 --> 2:19:16.760 second most incoherent democratic category. 2:19:17.640 --> 2:19:19.760 It's completely incoherent. 2:19:19.879 --> 2:19:23.600 Right, So you have exactly you have my wife, my 2:19:23.720 --> 2:19:28.040 life partner, who is born in la but she is 2:19:28.080 --> 2:19:30.320 a first gen she grew up in southern Mexico. 2:19:30.440 --> 2:19:31.920 She is first gen Mexican. 2:19:32.360 --> 2:19:37.160 But she's like, I identify as indigenous and it's and 2:19:37.200 --> 2:19:39.640 it's true. She is like even when we did the 2:19:39.720 --> 2:19:42.360 DNA test, if you believe in that stuff. She's like, 2:19:42.760 --> 2:19:44.240 but you could just look at her and I'm like, 2:19:45.280 --> 2:19:47.760 you're incing, Like you know what I'm saying. Just I'm 2:19:47.840 --> 2:19:50.119 just you're looking at her, and she's like, yeah, you're right, 2:19:50.200 --> 2:19:56.879 Like we are overwhelmingly vast majority of her DNA is indigenous. 2:19:57.080 --> 2:19:59.840 So for her, if you check a demographic box, it's 2:19:59.879 --> 2:20:02.920 like are you Are you Hispanic? She's like, why would 2:20:02.920 --> 2:20:06.480 I identify with the colonizer? So no, I'm not Hispanic, 2:20:06.680 --> 2:20:10.199 Like they're the colonizer. Right. Whereas you ask a Puerto 2:20:10.280 --> 2:20:14.200 Rican or a Cuban or Dominican, they say Hispanic, but 2:20:14.240 --> 2:20:18.120 they just mean it differently. One because the island was 2:20:18.160 --> 2:20:21.920 called Hispanola, y I'm saying, so like they just mean 2:20:21.959 --> 2:20:25.879 something totally different. And Dominicans as black as hell, yo said, 2:20:26.120 --> 2:20:28.600 And then what about a Cuban. The way that they 2:20:28.640 --> 2:20:32.160 relate to America is also incredibly different, especially because of 2:20:32.280 --> 2:20:34.840 like you know, I'm pretty sure y'all y'all room knows, 2:20:35.160 --> 2:20:37.760 is if you could touch dry ground, right, And that 2:20:37.879 --> 2:20:39.600 really just had to do with the fact that we 2:20:39.680 --> 2:20:42.480 just ain't fuck with Castro. So the way that they 2:20:42.560 --> 2:20:47.320 relate to even immigration is completely different. Because if you 2:20:47.360 --> 2:20:48.720 could make it to the Soy, if you go back 2:20:48.800 --> 2:20:51.320 to Florida, you're a citizen. So they just didn't go 2:20:51.400 --> 2:20:53.720 through the same things that people from Central and South 2:20:53.760 --> 2:20:56.800 America went through to be able to become a citizen. 2:20:56.879 --> 2:21:01.640 And on top of all that, California, Arizona and Texas 2:21:01.800 --> 2:21:05.360 is Mexico. So like so some of them a and immigrants. 2:21:05.520 --> 2:21:07.920 They was here, like the border move we didn't cross 2:21:07.920 --> 2:21:11.480 the border, the border across US. So you put all 2:21:11.520 --> 2:21:16.200 that together mixed with a group of people who might 2:21:16.280 --> 2:21:19.640 be ninth generation Mexican that people that don't speak Spanish, 2:21:19.680 --> 2:21:21.680 they're no samples as you call it, like, well't even 2:21:21.680 --> 2:21:24.879 speak Spanish. You know what I'm saying that, Like you 2:21:24.959 --> 2:21:28.560 love all these people who speak so many different languages 2:21:28.879 --> 2:21:31.800 and have so many different understandings of who they are, 2:21:32.879 --> 2:21:35.039 and you just call them Latino and then you get 2:21:35.040 --> 2:21:37.720 this number. But if you're willing to accept the absurdity 2:21:37.760 --> 2:21:41.000 of it, then then we could talk about the actual 2:21:41.120 --> 2:21:46.039 Like what actually happened here and what you find are 2:21:47.200 --> 2:21:51.640 two things that are seem so reductive. But as you 2:21:51.640 --> 2:21:54.160 look at the exit polls and even like interviews that 2:21:54.200 --> 2:21:57.960 I that I personally conducted. If you set aside the 2:21:57.959 --> 2:22:01.160 person that has been just cooked by just the right 2:22:01.200 --> 2:22:03.960 wing information, like set that person aside, that is just 2:22:04.120 --> 2:22:05.400 you've just your brain's been cooked. 2:22:05.520 --> 2:22:08.240 Like you set that aside, and you look at this. 2:22:08.440 --> 2:22:11.959 There are two very reductive things that just continue to 2:22:12.040 --> 2:22:16.360 just be true. One is, Latin America is very religious. 2:22:17.040 --> 2:22:20.720 It's still Catholic, and machismo is a big part of 2:22:20.760 --> 2:22:25.360 their culture. And it just it seems so reductive, but 2:22:25.520 --> 2:22:29.039 it's but it's what happened. You know, this is still 2:22:29.280 --> 2:22:34.840 a very patriarchal culture. And you know, as anecdotal and 2:22:34.879 --> 2:22:37.360 as running joke as it is that like if you 2:22:37.480 --> 2:22:42.320 have a Latina daughter and she's bringing because again they're 2:22:42.400 --> 2:22:45.360 very traditional. That's why I'm saying I'm using cisgender things. 2:22:45.360 --> 2:22:49.160 It's like you bring a boy over your grandma, all 2:22:49.200 --> 2:22:51.920 your theas are watching you make him a plate. You 2:22:52.080 --> 2:22:53.800 have to go over there and make him a plate 2:22:53.840 --> 2:22:55.840 and sit it in front of him or you going 2:22:55.920 --> 2:22:58.879 to be judged. This is just the culture, you know, 2:22:59.360 --> 2:23:02.879 so it's no surprise that that is not going to 2:23:03.120 --> 2:23:04.800 play into how you vote. 2:23:05.320 --> 2:23:05.520 Right. 2:23:06.000 --> 2:23:09.680 And then secondly, the religious thing in the sense that 2:23:09.840 --> 2:23:15.000 like this actually like really blew my mind. And a 2:23:15.000 --> 2:23:17.480 couple interviews I had I wanted to talk to specifically 2:23:18.400 --> 2:23:21.560 Latina women, because I was like, it just seemed as 2:23:21.560 --> 2:23:24.920 though there was just a triple layer of shit you'd 2:23:24.959 --> 2:23:28.920 have to swallow to be able to go this route, right, 2:23:29.520 --> 2:23:32.959 And my main question was like, what was the non 2:23:32.959 --> 2:23:40.480 negotiable and was there a line that Trump and by extension, 2:23:41.520 --> 2:23:45.080 the Republican Party could cross, like's the where's the line? 2:23:45.120 --> 2:23:47.240 What is the too far line? Right? 2:23:47.760 --> 2:23:51.360 And they landed on a few things. It was crazy, like, 2:23:51.400 --> 2:23:53.240 after talking to three different women, they all kind of 2:23:53.280 --> 2:23:54.360 landed on the same things. 2:23:54.760 --> 2:23:57.480 It was abortion, right. 2:23:57.560 --> 2:23:59.800 They were like, at the end of the day, this 2:23:59.879 --> 2:24:02.600 is untenable, and to which I pushed back where I 2:24:02.640 --> 2:24:06.240 was like, well, Trump's not anti abortion. And what they 2:24:06.280 --> 2:24:08.840 all said was like, we could deal with the sixteen 2:24:08.920 --> 2:24:12.279 week like I could deal with the sixteen week thing, obviously, 2:24:12.879 --> 2:24:15.920 because again they are women and they're not completely pilled. 2:24:16.160 --> 2:24:19.680 They're like, we understand that there are situations that happened 2:24:20.040 --> 2:24:24.000 right that just are untenable. 2:24:24.080 --> 2:24:26.720 And then the next thing that they said was. 2:24:26.640 --> 2:24:29.680 Like, which was the part that like really just kept 2:24:29.680 --> 2:24:33.600 putting my brain in a pretzel, was we are really 2:24:33.640 --> 2:24:39.320 big on anti sex trafficking and the the idea for 2:24:40.000 --> 2:24:42.720 us on this knowing that like, okay, so the right 2:24:42.720 --> 2:24:45.760 wing stole that, like they don't believe it. They stole 2:24:45.800 --> 2:24:48.760 that concept and they wrapped everything around it, right. But 2:24:49.480 --> 2:24:52.840 one of them mentioned how she couldn't vote for Hillary 2:24:53.240 --> 2:24:55.840 because she heard rumors about child stuff, and she's I 2:24:55.879 --> 2:24:57.360 mean she's referring to pizzagate, you. 2:24:57.360 --> 2:25:00.160 Know, yeah, yeah, it's just cute shit. 2:25:00.120 --> 2:25:01.760 Of which I was able to push back to be like, 2:25:01.800 --> 2:25:04.640 well that was, you know, it was debunked, like, and 2:25:04.680 --> 2:25:06.240 she was like, I just don't want to I just 2:25:06.280 --> 2:25:08.680 don't like I just don't like how they move. I 2:25:08.720 --> 2:25:12.199 don't trust Bill and how he behaved in the Oval office. 2:25:12.600 --> 2:25:14.680 And it's like you're looking around, like are. 2:25:14.560 --> 2:25:19.000 You They were both of that played like I'm like. 2:25:19.560 --> 2:25:21.360 She even said she was like but the Epstein thing, 2:25:21.760 --> 2:25:24.199 and I'm like, well, they're all I don't. 2:25:25.520 --> 2:25:26.879 I don't understand. 2:25:27.840 --> 2:25:30.640 I don't understand how you don't see this connection, right, 2:25:31.160 --> 2:25:33.960 and to which they both said, oh, no, we see it. 2:25:34.320 --> 2:25:35.000 You're again. 2:25:35.360 --> 2:25:38.640 Find me someone that's not nasty, is their answer. Find 2:25:38.640 --> 2:25:41.320 me someone that's not corrupt, Find me someone that's not nasty. 2:25:41.720 --> 2:25:44.920 At least he's going to save the babies, was the thing. 2:25:45.480 --> 2:25:49.200 And then the next question I had about them was 2:25:50.080 --> 2:25:53.920 the anti immigration thing, the borders, right, and we're talking 2:25:53.920 --> 2:25:57.320 to people who are one in two, some of them 2:25:57.360 --> 2:25:59.000 three generations removed. 2:25:59.120 --> 2:26:01.480 And one of one of them gave me an example. 2:26:01.160 --> 2:26:07.320 Of a family members in law who got deported fifty 2:26:07.400 --> 2:26:09.800 years old, got deported from something they did when they 2:26:09.800 --> 2:26:12.360 were nineteen. It's like it's tough, like this was a 2:26:12.440 --> 2:26:15.760 hard working man who's done his best, who you know, 2:26:15.840 --> 2:26:18.320 has has done everything they could and it's got it. 2:26:18.360 --> 2:26:20.600 So I asked her, like, yo, do you think that 2:26:21.080 --> 2:26:24.560 so do you think that that's unfair? No, she was like, 2:26:25.360 --> 2:26:28.480 our family waited in line, Our family did everything they 2:26:28.520 --> 2:26:31.640 needed to do. We fought. We came to this same thing. 2:26:31.800 --> 2:26:33.640 We came to this country because we believed in the 2:26:33.720 --> 2:26:35.920 dream and we fought for it, you know, and we 2:26:36.080 --> 2:26:38.600 and we did it right, you know obviously like with 2:26:38.720 --> 2:26:41.440 the Mexican like sort of like work ethic of like 2:26:41.800 --> 2:26:45.640 no excuses, just work. We can't stand for no cheaters. 2:26:45.800 --> 2:26:48.080 We don't believe in stuff like that. You have to 2:26:48.200 --> 2:26:51.360 work for yours right, And we come here. There's no 2:26:51.480 --> 2:26:53.920 cuts in front of the lines. There's no shortcuts. You 2:26:54.040 --> 2:26:56.800 do the work right, and if you cheat, you go 2:26:56.800 --> 2:26:57.760 to the back of the line. 2:26:57.879 --> 2:27:00.720 That's just what it is. So she's like, like, he's 2:27:00.760 --> 2:27:02.160 talking about criminals. 2:27:02.600 --> 2:27:05.440 I'm not a criminal. He's talking about criminals. Yeah, you know, 2:27:05.760 --> 2:27:09.240 that's not me. I'm a hard working citizen, you know. 2:27:09.800 --> 2:27:14.800 So that sort of mindset, and then she said, at 2:27:14.840 --> 2:27:15.840 the end of the day. 2:27:16.400 --> 2:27:20.280 We came for the dream. I'm here to work, you know. 2:27:20.600 --> 2:27:22.480 And if I put in the work, if my family 2:27:22.480 --> 2:27:26.280 puts into work, we succeed. That's what this country's for. 2:27:26.560 --> 2:27:29.119 You're fucking it up for all of us. You cheating 2:27:29.160 --> 2:27:31.119 the system is fucking it up for all of us. 2:27:31.360 --> 2:27:35.640 And so that sort of like I can swallow the 2:27:35.760 --> 2:27:38.760 racist shit because I don't give a fuck about you anyway, 2:27:38.920 --> 2:27:40.600 because I already know you don't give a fuck about me. 2:27:41.120 --> 2:27:43.840 I'm just here to get mine. So for them, at 2:27:43.879 --> 2:27:45.840 least according to the way they're explaining it, is like 2:27:46.480 --> 2:27:48.880 the prejudice line is not a line they worried about. 2:27:48.920 --> 2:27:51.480 That's something I've already accepted, you know. 2:27:52.080 --> 2:27:56.000 But what is a line is oddly enough, treatment of 2:27:56.000 --> 2:28:01.560 women and the treatment of children and the ability to flourish. 2:28:01.959 --> 2:28:04.039 And then lastly for the men, it's what we know, 2:28:04.320 --> 2:28:07.000 like just the Mano spheares cooked our kids. 2:28:07.440 --> 2:28:09.039 It just cook them, you know. 2:28:09.400 --> 2:28:15.320 And it dovetailed so well into the Latino machismo and 2:28:15.360 --> 2:28:18.240 even on the black shit. Like I knew we were 2:28:18.280 --> 2:28:22.280 in trouble when the hood niggas was talking, was running 2:28:22.280 --> 2:28:24.280 around here saying they was gonna vote for Trump because 2:28:24.280 --> 2:28:26.840 it's because they understand it. It's like you either get 2:28:26.840 --> 2:28:29.520 on or get out. Like I'm here, I'm gonna get 2:28:29.520 --> 2:28:31.080 with my You either form me or against me. 2:28:31.560 --> 2:28:33.600 This is what we're doing. You know what I'm saying. 2:28:34.000 --> 2:28:36.720 Right, I'm gonna let you be you know, as as 2:28:36.720 --> 2:28:38.840 derogatory as this is, like, I'm gonna let you be 2:28:38.879 --> 2:28:41.320 a man. You go fight what you gonna fight. And 2:28:41.360 --> 2:28:43.879 the Democrats are gonna turn your sons and the daughters. 2:28:44.160 --> 2:28:46.760 I don't rob like that's the that's the thought. 2:28:47.080 --> 2:28:49.119 You know what I'm saying. It's like, okay, well well 2:28:49.160 --> 2:28:51.000 fuck it, let's just get ours. You know what I'm saying. 2:28:51.400 --> 2:28:53.640 That simplicity of a message. 2:28:54.240 --> 2:28:57.959 It just resonated while you have which didn't bother me, 2:28:58.120 --> 2:29:00.760 but you have somebody like Obama coming in there like 2:29:00.800 --> 2:29:01.560 somebody's uncle. 2:29:02.120 --> 2:29:03.240 Basically like you. 2:29:03.040 --> 2:29:05.920 Young niggas need to turn pull up your pants, stop 2:29:05.959 --> 2:29:08.240 acting like thugs, and get in line. 2:29:08.280 --> 2:29:08.800 You know what I'm saying. 2:29:08.840 --> 2:29:10.800 It's like, all right, okay, uh you know, to me, 2:29:10.879 --> 2:29:12.440 I don't bother me because I'm like, well, yeah, you're 2:29:12.480 --> 2:29:14.480 somebody's uncle, like you are that oh you of course 2:29:14.520 --> 2:29:17.080 that's how you talk, you know. But the street dudes, 2:29:17.120 --> 2:29:18.920 it's like, look, man, I don't need this, Like I 2:29:18.920 --> 2:29:21.720 don't need this Harvard grad like pretty ass like rich 2:29:21.760 --> 2:29:24.080 nigga to tell me what it's like. You was never 2:29:24.120 --> 2:29:25.920 out You weren't out here, you weren't in the trenches. 2:29:26.440 --> 2:29:28.120 You know what I'm saying. Like you're a millionaire. I 2:29:28.120 --> 2:29:30.160 don't like you. You barely want to oh because you 2:29:30.160 --> 2:29:32.560 can hoop? Oh so you like basketball? You one of us, 2:29:32.560 --> 2:29:34.480 you know what I'm saying. So I just think that 2:29:34.480 --> 2:29:41.680 that like you've already got yours, so let me get mine. 2:29:42.680 --> 2:29:44.840 Is like, at the end of the day, was so 2:29:45.160 --> 2:29:49.160 appealing to this particular demographic and it just made sense. 2:29:49.480 --> 2:29:51.080 So that's why they voted that way. 2:29:51.520 --> 2:29:53.440 Yeah, And I think there's there's sort of like angles 2:29:53.440 --> 2:29:55.160 of this two that connect with what was going on 2:29:55.280 --> 2:29:57.840 with the Datian Americas, so partially also the religion angle 2:29:57.959 --> 2:30:00.760 is a thing that isn't talked about enough and also 2:30:00.800 --> 2:30:04.359 isn't talked about enough with Asian Americans, like particularly Chinese Americans. 2:30:04.360 --> 2:30:09.280 There's a whole bunch of how do I explain this 2:30:09.320 --> 2:30:09.920 in a way that. 2:30:11.360 --> 2:30:13.600 You know, the sort of like zeal of a convert shit, 2:30:13.640 --> 2:30:17.720 where like the first generation converts are the most nuts. Yeah, 2:30:17.760 --> 2:30:21.640 so that's like a huge portion of like Chinese Christians 2:30:21.760 --> 2:30:25.080 or these like first generation evangelical converts, and so you 2:30:25.160 --> 2:30:29.600 get these just like really terrifying, like ferociously right wing 2:30:30.760 --> 2:30:33.800 stuff that there's just kind of like just kind of 2:30:33.879 --> 2:30:38.040 eats everything around it. And I think the second part 2:30:38.080 --> 2:30:40.240 is I think it's an interesting distinction here too, because 2:30:40.240 --> 2:30:44.000 I think there's like a kind of differing parts of 2:30:44.040 --> 2:30:47.120 the storysness of the kind of like we came here 2:30:47.120 --> 2:30:49.320 to work thing, because that was the Asian American thing 2:30:49.440 --> 2:30:53.400 from maybe twenty years ago, and the last ten years 2:30:53.480 --> 2:30:57.200 and especially post twenty twenty has been people realizing that 2:30:57.760 --> 2:31:00.560 it's not real, yeah, and that you know, you work, 2:31:00.560 --> 2:31:01.960 you work, you work, you work, and this is this 2:31:02.000 --> 2:31:04.879 is actually also funny enough, exact same thing happening in 2:31:05.000 --> 2:31:07.320 China with sort of different political results because it's less 2:31:07.320 --> 2:31:09.320 it's you know, we're not dealing with yeah, like the 2:31:09.360 --> 2:31:11.160 same kind of sort of immigrant culture stuff. But the 2:31:11.240 --> 2:31:13.760 Chinese American version of this was like, Okay, we need 2:31:13.760 --> 2:31:17.240 to figure out who to blame for this, and they 2:31:17.280 --> 2:31:19.200 were like, well, yeah, okay, it's because of like all 2:31:19.240 --> 2:31:21.560 of this crime shit, because like people are going to 2:31:21.600 --> 2:31:23.800 prison for one million years, and like I see a 2:31:23.800 --> 2:31:26.200 black person and there's like a homeless person who I 2:31:26.240 --> 2:31:28.959 have to like walk past every day. This is the 2:31:29.000 --> 2:31:33.120 reason why like our fucking dream died. And that was 2:31:33.160 --> 2:31:35.760 a really sort of appealing message people. And it's the 2:31:35.800 --> 2:31:38.320 same kind of thing with the people who went for 2:31:38.320 --> 2:31:40.440 the affirmative action stuff, where it was like the people 2:31:40.520 --> 2:31:43.680 who you know are like in all seriousness, like we're 2:31:43.720 --> 2:31:46.840 running into kind of like oh no, there actually is 2:31:46.879 --> 2:31:49.920 a sort of wall that you hit, yeah, where it 2:31:49.920 --> 2:31:52.200 doesn't matter how hard you work, like there's only so 2:31:52.240 --> 2:31:54.720 many spots at the university, there's only so many totally, 2:31:54.760 --> 2:31:56.600 you know, there's only so much so far you can go, 2:31:57.040 --> 2:32:01.080 And hitting that wall drove a bunch of people you. 2:32:01.040 --> 2:32:04.000 Make a good point, you know, and and I imagine 2:32:04.040 --> 2:32:07.480 the same sort of reaction to that within the Chinese 2:32:07.480 --> 2:32:10.200 community is going to be the same with ours, where it's like, okay, 2:32:10.879 --> 2:32:14.840 you gon' learn that you are not welcome to that table. 2:32:15.720 --> 2:32:20.039 You know, they will always choose themselves. And you know, 2:32:20.120 --> 2:32:22.680 you could dress yourself up, you know, and just to 2:32:22.760 --> 2:32:27.560 the degree for which you can alter all identifying factors. 2:32:27.959 --> 2:32:29.560 For us, it's like to the degree for which you 2:32:29.600 --> 2:32:32.520 can remove your blackness is to the degree for which 2:32:32.520 --> 2:32:34.879 you're welcomed in this table. But at some point you 2:32:34.920 --> 2:32:37.520 can't take it off. It a'll rub off, you know, 2:32:37.959 --> 2:32:38.960 dress your kids up. 2:32:39.000 --> 2:32:39.160 You know. 2:32:39.240 --> 2:32:42.280 That was like for us with respectability politics, like teach 2:32:42.280 --> 2:32:44.840 your kids to speak proper English and dress them up 2:32:44.840 --> 2:32:48.360 and don't let them wear hoodies. Okay, good luck, you know, 2:32:48.720 --> 2:32:53.080 like jay Z's seminal work. Look, OJ said, I'm not black, 2:32:53.120 --> 2:32:59.119 I'm OJ okay, Like you know, it's just they will 2:32:59.160 --> 2:33:01.800 never accept you. The world you're trying to get into 2:33:02.160 --> 2:33:05.560 will never accept you. And this step towards trying to 2:33:05.600 --> 2:33:09.039 be accepted by this world is working against you and 2:33:09.080 --> 2:33:10.400 everyone else behind you. 2:33:10.400 --> 2:33:13.760 You know, But this is America. You can vote whatever 2:33:13.800 --> 2:33:14.200 you want to. 2:33:14.160 --> 2:33:16.800 Vote well, and I think twenty twenty eight, like for us, 2:33:17.000 --> 2:33:19.440 was that moment right where like, you know, everyone kind 2:33:19.440 --> 2:33:21.160 of got knocked out of the. 2:33:21.959 --> 2:33:25.440 You know, whichever way you sort of fragmented politically. 2:33:25.480 --> 2:33:27.080 It's like, that's when we got knocked out of the 2:33:27.120 --> 2:33:30.120 sort of obamam multiracial dream. Was when you realize that, 2:33:30.200 --> 2:33:32.039 like all of this fucking progress you've made isn't going 2:33:32.080 --> 2:33:33.879 to stop people from killing you in the street. Yes, 2:33:34.040 --> 2:33:36.200 And the reaction to that was like, and I saw 2:33:36.200 --> 2:33:37.600 this on the left where like a bunch of people 2:33:37.959 --> 2:33:40.800 basically splintered off and became like hardline Chinese nationalists because 2:33:40.800 --> 2:33:43.280 they were afraid, and they were like, Okay, well, you know, 2:33:43.360 --> 2:33:45.720 here's this thing that we have, this like strong state 2:33:45.720 --> 2:33:47.120 that will protect us, and we just have to fight 2:33:47.160 --> 2:33:47.400 for it. 2:33:47.440 --> 2:33:49.840 Here it's like, well that didn't work, right, you know. 2:33:49.879 --> 2:33:51.440 And then you have a lot of other people who 2:33:52.600 --> 2:33:55.119 started to recognize that this wasn't going to happen right, 2:33:55.160 --> 2:33:58.680 that like the thing that they had bought into was 2:33:58.680 --> 2:34:01.320 a lie. But the part of it that they believed 2:34:01.760 --> 2:34:03.600 they were just like, well, okay, if we can just 2:34:03.680 --> 2:34:05.960 like fucking get the black people out of here and 2:34:06.120 --> 2:34:07.560 like we can get the cops in yea, you know, 2:34:07.600 --> 2:34:10.840 we can go back to living in our fucking fantasy world. Yeah, 2:34:10.840 --> 2:34:14.320 And that's been just the sort of dominant response to it. 2:34:14.360 --> 2:34:16.640 And I don't know, it's bleak, but it's it's not 2:34:16.680 --> 2:34:21.840 something that can't be overcome, but it's gonna require like, 2:34:22.240 --> 2:34:24.520 it's going to require organizing, and it's going to require 2:34:24.560 --> 2:34:29.200 the left to not be about fucking making white people 2:34:29.280 --> 2:34:32.640 feel more anti imperialist, which has been what fucking politics 2:34:32.720 --> 2:34:37.039 ordizationan Americans has been. And until that shit at Shedison's like, 2:34:37.640 --> 2:34:41.960 you're gonna keep seeing this shit accelerate. 2:34:42.320 --> 2:34:46.760 Yeah, man, has there been any if the right term 2:34:46.800 --> 2:34:50.320 is like vision casting among this community, because like I 2:34:50.360 --> 2:34:53.640 say that to say, albeit a very small, very small 2:34:53.720 --> 2:34:57.760 fraction of voices, but among some of the black thinkers 2:34:58.320 --> 2:35:04.320 is like a serious consideration of pursuing like creating a 2:35:04.320 --> 2:35:07.240 third party of just like like but let's like take 2:35:07.280 --> 2:35:10.400 it serious this time, like for real, for real. Yeah, 2:35:10.640 --> 2:35:12.400 you know, like there's you know, it's, like I said, 2:35:12.400 --> 2:35:16.320 it's very small and like obviously, like my grandchildren will 2:35:16.360 --> 2:35:19.760 probably be the ones to see any sort of beginnings 2:35:19.800 --> 2:35:22.879 of that actually taking route but it's still like, you know, 2:35:22.959 --> 2:35:25.160 people are some of the things that are being talked 2:35:25.160 --> 2:35:28.480 about right now, like we should like really like really 2:35:28.520 --> 2:35:29.760 consider it. 2:35:29.840 --> 2:35:30.960 Is there anything like that going on? 2:35:31.640 --> 2:35:33.280 No, Like, and this is this social part of the 2:35:33.280 --> 2:35:36.160 problem is like the Asian American intellectual class is like 2:35:36.720 --> 2:35:39.360 one of the most bankrupt classes in the entire country. 2:35:39.360 --> 2:35:40.080 There's nothing. 2:35:40.160 --> 2:35:45.879 It's a wasteland out there. Like it's oh my god, yeah, 2:35:45.920 --> 2:35:48.800 like it's it's so bad. It's it's like all of 2:35:48.800 --> 2:35:50.360 the art in the media, the culture and the sort 2:35:50.360 --> 2:35:53.120 of analysis is all I've talked about in this show 2:35:53.120 --> 2:35:55.000 a decent amount, but it's all wrapped up in this 2:35:55.040 --> 2:35:57.160 sort of like oh, you two can like integrate and 2:35:57.160 --> 2:35:59.360 become a small business owner. And those people, you know, 2:35:59.400 --> 2:36:01.280 the people who leave that and people who did that, 2:36:01.480 --> 2:36:04.400 don't actually have any interesting ideas. Yeah they have. They 2:36:04.400 --> 2:36:07.120 have the incredibly narrow ideas of their class. The incredible 2:36:07.200 --> 2:36:09.800 narrow idea, incredibly narrow ideas of their class are completely 2:36:09.920 --> 2:36:12.960 useless for the sort of task we have ahead of us. Yeah, 2:36:13.040 --> 2:36:15.320 And and it's kind of working for them, yeah, I 2:36:15.320 --> 2:36:17.600 mean it's working for them, it's just it isn't working 2:36:17.600 --> 2:36:18.119 for anyone else. 2:36:18.280 --> 2:36:18.680 Exactly. 2:36:18.879 --> 2:36:20.720 Yeah, and like God, like I don't know, like the 2:36:20.720 --> 2:36:23.000 people who are supposed to be like Wesley Yang, who 2:36:23.040 --> 2:36:25.400 was supposed to be like the great sort of like 2:36:26.120 --> 2:36:29.119 new Asian intellectual is now this just completely cooked, right 2:36:29.160 --> 2:36:32.600 winger Like some of some of the people have been 2:36:32.640 --> 2:36:35.119 like turning on like some of the like the big 2:36:35.120 --> 2:36:37.240 podcasters have been like turning on trans people, and I'm 2:36:37.280 --> 2:36:41.160 just like, well, fuck all you guys eat shit basically, 2:36:41.440 --> 2:36:43.760 So yeah, it's it's the situation's bad. 2:36:43.800 --> 2:36:50.320 It's also the fragmentation is so powerful because you're dealing 2:36:50.360 --> 2:36:53.200 with so many kinds of like linguistic lions and lines 2:36:53.240 --> 2:36:56.360 between people who've been here for ten generations and people 2:36:56.360 --> 2:36:59.400 who just like walk off the boat yesterday. There's you know, 2:36:59.440 --> 2:37:02.720 and so the fragmentation I think helps prevent a more 2:37:02.720 --> 2:37:05.800 coherent sphere. But like it's it's bleak out there. 2:37:06.040 --> 2:37:10.039 Yeah, yeah, you know. 2:37:10.720 --> 2:37:15.480 Obviously, like the black queer community is obviously incredibly vibrant 2:37:15.680 --> 2:37:20.720 and strong and organized, and you know, at least from 2:37:20.720 --> 2:37:22.800 the part of the intersection that I'm a part of, 2:37:23.000 --> 2:37:26.160 you know, the voice coming out of that that space 2:37:26.400 --> 2:37:28.760 of like a lot of times of like very much 2:37:28.800 --> 2:37:31.760 prophetic and like you know, very much like truth telling 2:37:31.840 --> 2:37:34.720 that you hear from again, Like, you know, black queer 2:37:34.720 --> 2:37:37.200 community is like from our perspective, they continue to be 2:37:37.320 --> 2:37:39.880 like five steps ahead of us, you know of like 2:37:40.080 --> 2:37:43.000 where we need to go as as a as a people. 2:37:43.480 --> 2:37:45.520 Yeah, this was like the sex worker orgs for us. 2:37:45.560 --> 2:37:49.160 But then because this is another thing with left just 2:37:49.240 --> 2:37:50.720 kind of shit the bed right, Like this is a 2:37:50.760 --> 2:37:53.520 thing with Bernie where Bernie voted for SIS to Falster 2:37:54.080 --> 2:37:57.480 right and there's never been a reckoning about that at all. Yeah, 2:37:57.640 --> 2:37:59.879 and so you know, like the stuff that could have 2:38:00.800 --> 2:38:04.360 come out of that just kind of never did, and 2:38:05.040 --> 2:38:06.800 we never got the kind of integration and the kind 2:38:06.840 --> 2:38:09.480 of politics that we could have had if people had 2:38:09.520 --> 2:38:14.400 been like five percent, well not five so they would 2:38:14.440 --> 2:38:16.200 be able to require them to move their positions a bit. 2:38:16.200 --> 2:38:19.920 But like people had actually cared about sex workers, we 2:38:20.240 --> 2:38:21.200 wouldn't be here right now. 2:38:21.320 --> 2:38:24.720 But you told a different story. Yeah, yeah, well that 2:38:24.800 --> 2:38:25.520 was informative. 2:38:26.480 --> 2:38:30.440 This has been, Uh, I don't know, how do I 2:38:30.480 --> 2:38:31.520 how do we describe what. 2:38:31.520 --> 2:38:32.080 This has been? 2:38:32.240 --> 2:38:34.800 Well, miya, you know, I think I closed this right, 2:38:35.080 --> 2:38:36.760 Like this situation isn't hopeless. 2:38:36.840 --> 2:38:39.240 Yeah, right, there's there's been a lot of good tenanted 2:38:39.320 --> 2:38:42.120 organizing going on, Like there's a lot of kinds of 2:38:42.160 --> 2:38:45.320 stuff that can and do work. It's knows to the 2:38:45.360 --> 2:38:48.280 grindstone time, right, it is time to lock in, time 2:38:48.320 --> 2:38:51.240 to organize, and these communities can be organized. 2:38:51.400 --> 2:38:53.080 Yeah, we just haven't yet. 2:38:53.200 --> 2:38:56.959 And you know, yeah to your point, like for me, 2:38:57.160 --> 2:39:01.080 like all information is helpful, like like somebody's lying to you, 2:39:01.160 --> 2:39:04.800 like it's it's good information to know that this person 2:39:05.320 --> 2:39:08.360 thinks that that's something worth lying about, you know, like 2:39:08.440 --> 2:39:10.480 you just you just told me something about yourself that 2:39:10.520 --> 2:39:12.080 the fact that you think that that's worth lying about. 2:39:12.160 --> 2:39:16.360 So I say all that to say this understanding a 2:39:16.400 --> 2:39:19.360 better understanding of like it's hard to reason reason with 2:39:19.400 --> 2:39:22.600 somebody when they're hungry, you know, so just a better 2:39:22.720 --> 2:39:27.120 understanding of what are these communities actually prioritize, what do 2:39:27.200 --> 2:39:32.680 they actually value? And obviously, like you know, the dims 2:39:32.720 --> 2:39:35.760 and and unfortunately even the left was just like just 2:39:35.920 --> 2:39:39.720 swinging a miss guys, Like this type of thing, like 2:39:39.760 --> 2:39:41.440 you said, is not hopeless. It's like, now there's an 2:39:41.480 --> 2:39:46.000 understanding of like, okay, so you value the hustle, all right, well, 2:39:46.040 --> 2:39:48.600 let me tell you in the ways for which the 2:39:48.720 --> 2:39:51.160 choice you just made is working against your hustle, you know, 2:39:51.360 --> 2:39:54.320 like or now now here, Here are ways for which 2:39:54.840 --> 2:39:57.080 you can, like you said no to the grind and 2:39:57.120 --> 2:39:59.880 accomplish these goals in a way that's not so detri 2:40:00.080 --> 2:40:02.680 mental to the people around you. Yeah, you know, I'll 2:40:02.680 --> 2:40:05.039 with it. Like, I'm not hopeless either. I think that 2:40:05.280 --> 2:40:06.879 we just need to think about the word our word 2:40:06.959 --> 2:40:09.520 choice and what hells we willing to die on and 2:40:09.600 --> 2:40:12.280 be like, this is what we meant when we said this. 2:40:12.680 --> 2:40:17.360 Yeah, hey, We'll be back Monday with more episodes every 2:40:17.400 --> 2:40:19.600 week from now until the heat death of the Universe. 2:40:19.879 --> 2:40:22.360 It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 2:40:22.560 --> 2:40:25.640 For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 2:40:25.680 --> 2:40:28.240 cool Zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the 2:40:28.280 --> 2:40:32.400 iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 2:40:32.680 --> 2:40:34.600 You can now find sources for It Could Happen here 2:40:34.640 --> 2:40:36.440 listed directly in episode descriptions. 2:40:36.800 --> 2:40:37.600 Thanks for listening.