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Speaker 1: Also media. Hey everybody, Robert Evans here, and I wanted

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Speaker 1: to let you know this is a compilation episode, So

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Speaker 1: every episode of the week that just happened is here

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Speaker 1: in one convenient and with somewhat less ads package for

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Speaker 1: you to listen to in a long stretch if you want.

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Speaker 1: If you've been listening to the episodes every day this week,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be nothing new here for you, but

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Speaker 1: you can make your own decisions.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to it could happen here. I'm Garrison Davis. I'm

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Speaker 2: joined by Mia Wong. It's a sort of a new week,

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Speaker 2: so let's start preparing for what these next few months

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Speaker 2: are going to look like. In the wake of Trump's

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Speaker 2: election victory last week, so one thing I was thinking

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Speaker 2: about after the results kind of rolled in and seeing

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Speaker 2: everyone's reactions online, you have a you know, a mix

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Speaker 2: of people going full doomer, some people trying to get

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Speaker 2: hopped up on opium, some people on copium right, just

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Speaker 2: trying to like find any psychological way to survive and

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Speaker 2: from kind of the way I like to survive is

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Speaker 2: just through information. So this episode, we're gonna get into

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Speaker 2: how we see life for trans people under a second

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Speaker 2: Trump term based on both what he's done in the

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Speaker 2: past what he's promised to do in the future. And

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Speaker 2: I know, in like the days after the election, like LGBTQ,

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Speaker 2: like crisis hotlines all saw a massive spike in people

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Speaker 2: calling in, to the point where some people were even

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Speaker 2: unable to reach someone. And like I understand, this is

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Speaker 2: a very scary moment in time. And as much as

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Speaker 2: it might not be fun to hear about how things

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Speaker 2: are all gonna get worse, there's also some misconceptions, and

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Speaker 2: I think there's also a degree of power in actually

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Speaker 2: being able to reasonably ascertain what things could look like

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Speaker 2: instead of just kind of feeling it out and just

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Speaker 2: going purely on vibes. So to kind of start, I

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Speaker 2: guess I'll mention some things that Trump did in his

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Speaker 2: first term that then got undone by Biden, which will

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Speaker 2: probably just end up being reinstated. We don't know these

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Speaker 2: for sure, but that's like a decent guess. So one

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Speaker 2: of the first things Trump did when he got into

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Speaker 2: office is he rolled back in Obama era memo directing

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Speaker 2: schools to protect trans students from discrimination.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and that, by the way, discrimination protection is a

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Speaker 3: constant theme in this episode, it's going to get a

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Speaker 3: lot worse.

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Speaker 2: Trump later went on to ban trans people from serving

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Speaker 2: in the military. He also went after trans prisoners, making

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Speaker 2: it so that trans people usually would need to be

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Speaker 2: housed in prisons and jails according to their assigned sex

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Speaker 2: at birth, which is of course a very dangerous situation

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Speaker 2: for people incarcerated, specifically trans women.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think there is good reason to expect

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Speaker 3: that treatment there is going to get worse. There's been

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Speaker 3: you know, we'll get into this more later in the episode,

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Speaker 3: but there's been a real focus on incarcerated trans people

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Speaker 3: getting health care. Yeah, and this is one of the

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Speaker 3: things that's kind of ambiguous as to how Trump could

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Speaker 3: go about trying to stop these people from getting healthcare.

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Speaker 3: So the thing about providing healthcare as people who have

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Speaker 3: been incarcerated is that they have to do it. Is

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Speaker 3: it is something that is required by the Constitution of

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Speaker 3: the United States. The Eighth Amendment holds that there is

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Speaker 3: a ban on cruel unusual punishment, and withholding medical care

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Speaker 3: is so obviously a form of cruel unusual punishment that

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Speaker 3: even staggeringly right wing Supreme courts have been like, no,

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Speaker 3: you actually have to give people medical care in prison.

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Speaker 3: So this is one that's going to be a little

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Speaker 3: bit difficult for him to do. I don't know, he

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Speaker 3: might find some way to do it. This is one

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Speaker 3: of the ones where there's a real potential for it

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Speaker 3: to get worse, and we simply do not know enough

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Speaker 3: about what legal strategy is going to be here to

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Speaker 3: say for sure.

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Speaker 2: But it's also worth mentioning, like people have had to

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Speaker 2: fight for access to healthcare in prison, Like it's not

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Speaker 2: something that comes easily, Like people have had to sue

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Speaker 2: to make sure that they get the health care that

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Speaker 2: they are legally required to receive. And we can just

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Speaker 2: assume that that process will probably be slightly more difficult

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Speaker 2: under a second Trump term like it was under a

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Speaker 2: first Chuck term. Then it may kind of currently be now.

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Speaker 2: So that's kind of one shift in how things might

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Speaker 2: be slightly more challenging.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I want to also mention so that analysis

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Speaker 3: and a lot of the analysis, the policy analysis that

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Speaker 3: I'm going to be doing going forward, is heavily indebted

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Speaker 3: to trans policy expert Corinn Green, who we've had on

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Speaker 3: the show a couple of times before. Amazingly, she was

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Speaker 3: one of the people who ended up working on compliance

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Speaker 3: for that lawsuit where Kamala Harris tried to keep transprisoners

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Speaker 3: from getting healthcare, and she came in and had to

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Speaker 3: like ensure that the state of California was doing it,

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Speaker 3: and they weren't. So that's something that has been fought for,

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Speaker 3: and that's something I mean, the trans community is small

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Speaker 3: enough that that is the thing that has specifically been

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Speaker 3: fought for by people who I consulted to make this episode. So, yeah,

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Speaker 3: these these rights have been dearly one and it's going

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Speaker 3: to be very hard to protect them. If I'm doing

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Speaker 3: something where there's there's something about policy implementation, assume that

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Speaker 3: I talked to Krinn about this and that's why it's accurate.

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Speaker 4: And while I'm.

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Speaker 3: Doing this, I want to plug a couple of the

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Speaker 3: projects that she works on. But there's something you can

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Speaker 3: do very immediately, right now, before we get into all

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Speaker 3: of the terrible stuff that's going to happen, which is

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Speaker 3: you can donate to the Trans Income Project, which is

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Speaker 3: the project that supports trans people and transsex workers in particular,

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Speaker 3: which is a lot of trans people and supports them

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Speaker 3: by just giving them direct cash transfers. They use some

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Speaker 3: of their work too, but yeah, and direct cash transfers

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Speaker 3: are one of the most effective ways that you can

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Speaker 3: help trans people. And if you give money to this organization,

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Speaker 3: they'll be links in the chat you can help do this.

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Speaker 3: So let's get into how things are going to get worse. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 3: trud administration, Congress, and state legislators have an enormous amount

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Speaker 3: of power to make everything worse. We're mostly going to

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Speaker 3: be focusing on what Trump and Congress can do.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 4: We'll get into the legislator's a bit at the end.

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Speaker 3: So there are a lot of levers of state power

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Speaker 3: and sort of policy techniques that Trump can pull here

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Speaker 3: to make things worse. We're going to go roughly from

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Speaker 3: easiest to hardest to pull off. So the first lever

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Speaker 3: is federal funding. Probably the easiest place that this lever

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Speaker 3: can get pulled is in the education system. Trump can

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Speaker 3: unfortunately fairly easily implement what amounts to a don't say

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Speaker 3: trans ban on a federal level by threatening to withhold

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Speaker 3: federal funding for any school that doesn't mandate things like

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Speaker 3: misgendering and dead nighbing students and banned And this is

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Speaker 3: something he's explicitly talked about. Is like banning anyone in classes,

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Speaker 3: any teachers from talking about traditioning at all. He's also

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Speaker 3: threatened to have teachers who talk to students about being

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Speaker 3: trands like investigated by the Department of Justice.

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Speaker 4: We'll get more into Department just investigations in a bit.

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Speaker 3: He's also used an explicit threat, the same threat of

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Speaker 3: cutting state funding to stop schools some letting kids use

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Speaker 3: the right bathroom in the locker room. It's also possible

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Speaker 3: he will do that through Title nine. But there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of ways that he can do this very easily

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Speaker 3: that are probably not going to be able to be stopped.

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Speaker 3: And this is going to get extremely bad, very quickly.

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Speaker 3: Another sort of avenue that he has is I guess

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Speaker 3: what you'd call like the High Amendment for trans people.

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Speaker 3: So for people who don't know what the High Amendment is,

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Speaker 3: the High Amendment is a writer that bans federal spending

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Speaker 3: on abortion.

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Speaker 4: It's been like modified.

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Speaker 3: It's not like the one percent band that he used

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Speaker 3: to be because now there's like exceptions for rape and

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Speaker 3: incests and stuff life of their parents too. But it

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Speaker 3: is a very very effective Republican tool. It's actually also

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden helped implement that that's been used to limit

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Speaker 3: access to abortion, and we already have seen the start

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Speaker 3: of these kind of things even under Biden. There was

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Speaker 3: a version of this of a kind of high amendment

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Speaker 3: for trans healthcare that was an attempt to get the

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Speaker 3: DoD to not be able to spend money on trans healthcare.

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Speaker 3: That's already a provision that's been tacked onto one of

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Speaker 3: the most recent spending bills that went through because Joe

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Speaker 3: Manchin like defected and joined the Republicans to get it

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Speaker 3: onto one of the spending omnibuses, and that was again

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Speaker 3: just for the Department of Defense. We are very likely

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Speaker 3: to see versions of these attached to every single spending

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Speaker 3: bill that explicitly say that government funding cannot be used

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Speaker 3: for trans health care. It will definitely be used to

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Speaker 3: do to say you can't use it for trans healthcare

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Speaker 3: for minors. It is possible this will be expanded to adults.

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Speaker 4: We don't know.

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Speaker 3: It depends how far there's sort of anti trans I

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Speaker 3: don't know the derangement goes, but that is a real danger.

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Speaker 3: And this can also be expanded to refusing to allow

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Speaker 3: Medicare and Medicaid to pay for anything at a clinic

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Speaker 3: that does trans healthcare, even if the money isn't funding

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Speaker 3: the healthcare. That's also possible. That would be absolutely catastrophic

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Speaker 3: for the medical system. Even just a government band that

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Speaker 3: prevents things like Medicare and Medicaid and like government health

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Speaker 3: care from covering transition in the first place is a disaster.

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Speaker 3: But if they go further and prevent clinics who provide

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Speaker 3: trans health care from taking Medicare and Medicaid, that's bad

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Speaker 3: enough that I think that is in terms of what

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Speaker 3: is the thing we most need to be worried about

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Speaker 3: right now, I think that's the worst possible thing that

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Speaker 3: can happen very quickly, because.

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Speaker 2: It could basically pressure medical clinics into refusing to offer

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Speaker 2: any kind of gender affirming care because it would threaten

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Speaker 2: their just base ability to operate as a medical clinic

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Speaker 2: taking Medicare, Medicaid, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the thing I talked about a bit

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Speaker 3: in our Agenda forty seven episode on this. But this

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Speaker 3: is this effectually creates like Sophie's choice for these clinics,

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Speaker 3: because it's either you treat trans people who have private insurance, right,

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Speaker 3: or you can treat like people who have who are

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Speaker 3: a medicare medicaid. So it's like, okay, either either you

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Speaker 3: let trans people get fucked or you let like every

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Speaker 3: poor person or old person in the US like eat shit.

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Speaker 3: So there aren't good options here for that.

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Speaker 2: How do we think something like this would be implemented?

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Speaker 2: Like is this an executive order or does this have

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Speaker 2: to go through Congress?

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Speaker 3: So that's the other part about this that's very bad.

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Speaker 3: The way that this is being done is these things

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Speaker 3: are attaches to what are called writers to spending bills.

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Speaker 3: So any spending bill Republicans put in front of the House,

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Speaker 3: they will have this like provision in it, right, And

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Speaker 3: the really big problem for us is that spending bills

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Speaker 3: usually get passed now out of this thing called Senate reconciliation.

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Speaker 3: And the thing about Senate reconciliation is that you can't

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Speaker 3: fill a buster them, so these can just get rammed

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Speaker 3: through really really quickly, and there's not going to be

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Speaker 3: enough opposition in the House to stop it either. So

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Speaker 3: I mean, some of this stuff probably could be done

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Speaker 3: with executive orders, but it's quite possible if you won't

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Speaker 3: even need that because it can just be rammed through

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Speaker 3: in spending bills.

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Speaker 4: Which is a little bit harder to undo. From my understanding.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, executive orders can be overturned by the next guy,

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Speaker 3: whereas getting these provisions out is going to take a

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Speaker 3: long time. Yeah, you know, this is another issue that

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Speaker 3: we have. The map for the Democrats retaking the Senate

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Speaker 3: is terrible in twenty twenty six and it's bad in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty eight two. So I still don't think this

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Speaker 3: is being recorded Friday. I don't think we still actually

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Speaker 3: know what their majority in the Senate's going to be.

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Speaker 4: But it's a lot.

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Speaker 3: And also we know that Joe Manchin is willing to

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Speaker 3: vote for stuff like this because he's done it already,

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Speaker 3: So this is probably coming quickly. It basically depends on

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Speaker 3: how good their policy people are, which who knows. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: this is not going to be difficult for them to

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Speaker 3: implement and it is going to be extremely damaging.

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Speaker 2: Well, that was a lot. Let's take a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a break and will we come back, take another

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Speaker 2: look into what life could be like under a second

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Speaker 2: Trump term.

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Speaker 4: We are back.

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Speaker 3: So the threat to trans people does not only come

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Speaker 3: from Congress and the President. One of the things that's

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Speaker 3: almost certainly going to happen very soon is there is

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Speaker 3: currently a case about a trans healthcare band from Miners

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Speaker 3: and Tennessee in front of the Supreme Court. It's called

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Speaker 3: Scrmetti versus us. We are almost certainly going to lose this.

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Speaker 3: Not losing this requires a bunch of extremely unlikely things happening,

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Speaker 3: and this is very, very bad. What Scrimmetti versus Us

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Speaker 3: is probably going to cost us is trans people as

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Speaker 3: a group being protected by the fourteenth Amendment. So the

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Speaker 3: fourteenth Amendment is supposed to provide everyone equal protection under

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Speaker 3: the law. The way this has been interpreted is that

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Speaker 3: if you're passing a law that directly targets a group,

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Speaker 3: there are certain levels of scrutiny that have to be

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Speaker 3: applied to it to see whether or not it's discriminatory

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Speaker 3: and can be allowed to proceed. What's probably going to

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Speaker 3: happen here is that trans people aren't going to be

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Speaker 3: held as protected at all, which means that the fourteenth

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Speaker 3: Amendment will not protect us from things that are unbelievably

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Speaker 3: obviously discriminatory, like healthcare bands for youth, which is again

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Speaker 3: literally the same procedures that are happening for trans children

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Speaker 3: are done to sis children. All the time and it's fine. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: so this is very obviously discrimination. We're probably going to

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Speaker 3: lose it because the Supreme Court is full of a

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Speaker 3: bunch of the worst people in the entire world. It

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Speaker 3: is technically possible that Gorstch defects and drags someone else

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Speaker 3: over and we get a thing that says we have

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Speaker 3: intermediate scrutiny. That would be the best win we could

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Speaker 3: possibly get on this. It's extremely it's unlikely. We're probably

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Speaker 3: going to lose it. And this is also going to

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Speaker 3: overturn the landmark case Bostock versus Clayton County, which is

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Speaker 3: the one that rules that you can't discriminate against trans

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Speaker 3: people based on gener identity.

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Speaker 4: Specifically for like employers as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, for employees. Is specifically for employers. So what we

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Speaker 3: could very well be about to lose. And again, this

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Speaker 3: is another thing that's very high likelihood because this case

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Speaker 3: is they're ready in front of the Supreme Court, and

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Speaker 3: the Supreme Court hates us. We could be about to

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Speaker 3: lose employment discrimination protections now. To be fair, and I

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Speaker 3: think most trans people who are listening to the show

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Speaker 3: know this. I don't know how many SIS people understand this,

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Speaker 3: but the level of trans employment discrimination in the workplace

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Speaker 3: is unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this isn't really enforced at all. Uh, yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: pretty bad.

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Speaker 3: It is something that right now is technically possible to you,

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Speaker 3: and you're not allowed to just straight up say it.

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Speaker 3: But you know, like there is a reason that the

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Speaker 3: unemployment rate for trans people is like three times as high. No,

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Speaker 3: it's actually I think's yeah, I think it's about three

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Speaker 3: times as high as the rate for SIS people. Right,

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Speaker 3: we don't have great data. There's some data from the

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Speaker 3: Translant Student Survey from twenty twenty two, but the full

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Speaker 3: report isn't out yet. But what I will say is

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Speaker 3: that the trans level of unemployment unemployment right now in

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Speaker 3: the US is very low. The level of unemployment for

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Speaker 3: trans people is nineteen thirty six, great depression levels. And

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Speaker 3: this is before we lose these these protections. It is

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Speaker 3: also worth noting this will not overturn like state level

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Speaker 3: of protections, So if you're in a state that like

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Speaker 3: has specifically banned it, you will have some more recourse.

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Speaker 3: But we're losing fourteenth MEDIT protections on.

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Speaker 2: A federal level would basically allow explicit employment discrimination. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: if someone's trans.

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Speaker 3: It's possible that case goes like marginally better for us

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Speaker 3: and that doesn't happen, But it's hard to see how

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Speaker 3: that would happen. The lawyers I talked to you will

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Speaker 3: say this is this is not a legal opinion, but

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Speaker 3: they seem to think that this is how this would go,

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Speaker 3: and the policy people seem to think going the same way.

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Speaker 3: There's some other things that can happen. Trump has been

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Speaker 3: promising We're going to get federal investigations into clinics that

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Speaker 3: provide gender affirming care, also into hospitals. You know, there's

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Speaker 3: gonna be enormous legal harassment. This has already been happening

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Speaker 3: on a sort of lower level, but from sort of

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Speaker 3: individual lawsuits and state attorney generals. But this is going

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Speaker 3: to be happening with the full backing of the Department

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Speaker 3: of Justice. You can look at like what Texas has

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Speaker 3: been doing the past four years. Yeah, with them investigating

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Speaker 3: not as clinics, but also like parents of trans kids. Yeah, parents,

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Speaker 3: like individual health care providers. He was also pledging to

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Speaker 3: investigate like the companies that make hormones, So that's bad.

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Speaker 3: There's also the Department of Justice has been making some

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Speaker 3: incredibly half assed attempts to try to go after some

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Speaker 3: of the healthcare bands.

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Speaker 4: That's all going to stop. They're just going to give

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Speaker 4: all that up.

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Speaker 3: There's also a bunch of bills that could be passed

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Speaker 3: depending on the Democrats' willingness to filibuster them. So Trump

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Speaker 3: has called for a ban of trans people like playing

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Speaker 3: sports that correspond with their gender, and that may well

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Speaker 3: pass because the Democrats are cowards and the Republicans are

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Speaker 3: going to have a large majority in the Senate. Trump

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Speaker 3: has also pushed for a ban on gender firming care

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Speaker 3: for minors, including Harts homo replacement therapy, which is like

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Speaker 3: one of the main ways you transition and puberty blockers.

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Speaker 3: That one is less likely to make it through the Senate,

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Speaker 3: but it also again depends on how cowardly the Democrats

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Speaker 3: are and how much they decide to cave. And this

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Speaker 3: is the moment that there is another thing that you

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Speaker 3: can do and you should start doing this right now,

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Speaker 3: which is this is the moment right now to start

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Speaker 3: pressuring your congress person about this, like start calling them,

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Speaker 3: start pressuring them, and start making sure that they don't

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Speaker 3: fully sort of turn on trans rights. This is just

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Speaker 3: something that you can concretely do right now, because these

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Speaker 3: people need to understand that there are consequences for turning

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Speaker 3: on trans people, because if there aren't consequences, they are

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Speaker 3: going to do it now. Trump has also called for

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Speaker 3: a ban on recognizing trans people at a federal level

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Speaker 3: on like all identification documents things like that also would

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Speaker 3: outlaw non binary markings on passports and stuff. That would

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Speaker 3: also be really bad. That's also something that probably requires

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Speaker 3: a law. And that's again and everything. Call your conresspeople,

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Speaker 3: like pressure them now, start doing it now, do not

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Speaker 3: wait until he's actually in office.

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Speaker 2: And like, all of these issues are things that public

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Speaker 2: opinion has been shifting on greatly the past like two years. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: these things used to be much more kind of seen

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Speaker 2: as like, yeah, this like makes sense, this is like

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Speaker 2: a humane and reasonable effort to include a group of

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Speaker 2: discriminated people. And now we see in a growing number

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Speaker 2: a majority of people pull on this issue do not

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Speaker 2: support these measures. They don't support having the ability to

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Speaker 2: have your gender marker match your gener identity. They don't

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Speaker 2: support your ability to participate in public life. And that

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Speaker 2: is the result of an intentional misinformation campaign and essentially

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Speaker 2: like a hate crime campaign and a hate speech campaign

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Speaker 2: that has been going on for the past like four

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Speaker 2: years because Republicans knew that they already lost the battle

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Speaker 2: on like regular gay people, so they moved on to

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Speaker 2: the next subjugated class. And that's something we've talked about

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Speaker 2: for a while. And this is like something that is shifting.

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Speaker 2: So you have to actually verbally express to to your

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Speaker 2: representatives that this is something that you actually do care about.

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Speaker 2: Otherwise they will look at these like general polls and

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Speaker 2: be like, oh, I guess this isn't popular anymore, and

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Speaker 2: shift and cave on it. They need to know that

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Speaker 2: their constituents actually do care about these things if we

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Speaker 2: want these things to not get passed through Congress.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's also worth mentioning that a lot of

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Speaker 3: this people just don't know anything about about trans people

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Speaker 3: because we're like one percent of the population right now.

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Speaker 3: Part of the reason the Republican campaign is working is

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Speaker 3: that people are susceptible to being told things about trans

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Speaker 3: people and believing them. But that also works for us. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 3: it goes both ways. Part of what's been going on

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Speaker 3: is that, like we haven't had the kind of giant

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Speaker 3: advocacy push outside of some trans people. But we have

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Speaker 3: no money, we have no resources, and we need there

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Speaker 3: to actually be large, widespread and vocal public support because

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Speaker 3: otherwise all of the stuff that's happening here is going

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Speaker 3: to get even worse. And you know the word when

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Speaker 3: we could get very well, the worst case scenario, things

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Speaker 3: which are full bands for adults. That's the thing that

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Speaker 3: they could pass through Congress, but right now they don't

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Speaker 3: have the support for it. Yeah, However, Comma ascarising is

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Speaker 3: going to get to there are signs that the Democratic

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Speaker 3: Party is deciding to throw us under the bus.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not as steadfast on this issue then what we

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Speaker 2: would probably prefer.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: And on the state level, I guess the important thing

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Speaker 3: for the state level is that once we lose Fourteenth

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Speaker 3: Amendment protections, it's going to be so much harder for

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Speaker 3: there to be legal challenges to any of this. And

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Speaker 3: this means we're going to see a proliferation of these

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Speaker 3: state level bands on healthcare, even sort of marching ahead

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Speaker 3: of where the federal government is.

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Speaker 2: Let's have our last break and when we come back.

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Speaker 2: We will close the episode by discussing Trump's focus on

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Speaker 2: trans issues during his campaign, as well as things that

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Speaker 2: you can start doing like right now to get ready

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Speaker 2: and prepare for these next four years.

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Speaker 4: All right, we are back.

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Speaker 2: During the last few months of Trump's campaign, his team

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Speaker 2: shifted away from the key issues of the economy and

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Speaker 2: immigration in their national election ad efforts, and specifically honed

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Speaker 2: in on trans issues as a wedge against Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: and the Democrats in general, the infamous Kamala Is for

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Speaker 2: They Them ad being the prime example of this. According

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Speaker 2: to a PBS report, from October seventh to October twentieth,

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Speaker 2: Trump's campaign and pro Trump groups spent an estimated thirty

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Speaker 2: nine million dollars on anti trans ads, and Trump ended

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Speaker 2: up spending more money on these ads than on housing, immigration,

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Speaker 2: and the economy combined. This was his main focus in

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Speaker 2: his final ad push, a specific after the September debate.

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Speaker 2: A new report from journalist Casey Parks, using data from

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Speaker 2: Ad Impact, shows that Republicans spent nearly two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifteen million dollars on anti trans ads this election cycle.

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Speaker 2: And this figure does not include cable or streaming ads.

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Speaker 2: This is just network TV. And these anti trans ads

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Speaker 2: weren't just focused on the presidential election. Other Republicans in

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Speaker 2: various Senate races picked up on the success of these

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Speaker 2: anti trans ads and used them in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Now,

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Speaker 2: initially some thought that maybe this would be a repeat

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two, Maybe this extra focus on this

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Speaker 2: small group of the population wouldn't lead to kind of

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Speaker 2: electoral successes, pointing to how a similar strategy failed during

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty two midterms. But then election day came

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Speaker 2: and we saw that there was a degree of success

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Speaker 2: or at least these did not hurt them in any

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Speaker 2: substantial way, and Republicans won many of the Senate races

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Speaker 2: on anti trans campaign messages. I'm going to quote from

440
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 2: an article in The New York Times called it Trump

441
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 2: and the Republicans bet big on anti trans ads across

442
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 2: the country. Quote the kamala is for they them add

443
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 2: was rated as one of his campaigns more effective in

444
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:17,479
Speaker 2: September in some Democratic testing. According to results reviewed by

445
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: The Times, Republican strategists said the focus on transunter women

446
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 2: and girls in sports had been particularly effective with a

447
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 2: key group of voters the party had hemorrhaged support from

448
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 2: in recent years, college educated women. One of the things

449
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 2: you see in the focus groups is that the moms

450
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 2: get really visibly angry on this issue, said Jim McLaughlin,

451
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: a Republican polster who works for mister Trump and other

452
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 2: Republican campaigns. Quote it's a fairness issue. They don't want

453
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 2: their daughters to lose a scholarship and they don't want

454
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: them to get hurt unquote. The enthusiasm for this issue

455
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 2: kind of lines up with what me, Sophie, and Roberts

456
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 2: saw at the RNC, where anti trans statements consistently got

457
00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 2: the loudest applause. Though some state level Democrats Representative Steth

458
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 2: Moulton of Massachusetts and Tom Soulsey of New York, as

459
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 2: well as some other DNZ advisors, have jumped onto the

460
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 2: blame game, citing trans issues as if not the reason,

461
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: then a reason Democrats just completely fumble this election, claiming

462
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 2: that the Democratic Party is far to the left on

463
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 2: trans issues and the average American. But largely the Dems

464
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 2: were not out campaigning for trans people like Loud and

465
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: Proud the selection cycle, oh trans issues were intentionally pushed

466
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: off stage at the DNC, and the Harris campaign tried

467
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 2: their hardest to sidestep this issue, giving vague non answers

468
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 2: and whether trans people should be able to receive healthcare

469
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 2: by just stating that her administration would quote unquote follow

470
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 2: the law and invoking States rights type framing. And I

471
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 2: see this as just a massive failure to confront an

472
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 2: issue that Republicans have like slingshot into the spotlight, and

473
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: it shows a failure to do things because it's like

474
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 2: the right thing to do, not just necessarily for some

475
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 2: like electoral gain.

476
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 4: Well even even on a strategic level.

477
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 3: Right, we saw this with border policy too, right exactly,

478
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 3: Democrats adopted their Republican's sport policy and then they lost exactly.

479
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 3: And it's like, yeah, if you just agree or refuse

480
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 3: to contest them on their core issues, then that's what

481
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 3: people are going to believe because people have a tendency

482
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 3: to believe what their elites are telling them. You can't

483
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 3: defeat these people's ideology by just agreeing with it or

484
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 3: start stepping out of the way of it.

485
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 4: That just lets it spread.

486
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 2: And I think this is going to be proven to

487
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 2: be like the biggest mistake Democrats made this election cycle,

488
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 2: like you can't just cede territory to the right based

489
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: on a massive disinformation campaign which is exactly what the

490
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 2: Democrats did on immigration and crime, and they showed a

491
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 2: willingness to do that on trans rights. Now, even if

492
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 2: some of these people that Democrats included claim to not

493
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: like hate trans people individually, that they have allowed questions

494
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 2: around access to bathrooms, sports and government fund and healthcare

495
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 2: to be used as a wedge against trans rights as

496
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 2: a whole, and the ability for trans people to be

497
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 2: able to exist in public life to close. I think

498
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 2: we should have just a brief discussion on what people

499
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 2: can do specifically during these next seventy five days and

500
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 2: even in the months after, like what people can do

501
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,880
Speaker 2: to prepare for some of the worst aspects of this,

502
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: specifically on the healthcare front. Now, we did a series

503
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 2: of episodes a few years ago on DIYHRT. There are

504
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 2: both pharmaceutical and home brewed options for homones that can

505
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 2: be ordered online. Now since that episode, home brewed distribution

506
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: networks have spread throughout the United States. There's probably one

507
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 2: already in whatever city is closest to you. Now, access

508
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: to those networks does require a degree of, like in

509
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 2: person community, and I know that can be challenging. You

510
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 2: can certainly do organizing online on discord. You can certainly

511
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 2: find trans people on discord that can help you learn

512
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 2: where pharmaceutical grade estrogen can be ordered online. But that

513
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 2: type of online organizing will only get more dangerous under

514
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 2: a Trump term, especially if the legal status of these

515
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 2: hormones change. So I will always emphasize the importance of

516
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 2: in person community. And it might just like learning if

517
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 2: there's a trans band in the city you're in, going

518
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 2: to some shows, learning where trans people go, Where trans

519
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: people gather, is their community picnics?

520
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,479
Speaker 4: Is their book fares? Is their zine fares? Like?

521
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 2: Is there like even gaming conventions? Right, just places that

522
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 2: there might be a number of trans people gathered and

523
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 2: talk to them about being trans, talk to them about

524
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 2: the issues that you're facing. It might take a few

525
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: months to gain trust and become friends, but that's just

526
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 2: how friendships work anyway, and that can be challenging. And

527
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 2: there may not be something like this in a city

528
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,959
Speaker 2: super close to you, which is why online connections are useful,

529
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: and sometimes it might require a little bit of travel. Now,

530
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: what we can do, at least right now is stockpile

531
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: things in case things get harder to maintain or produce.

532
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,159
Speaker 2: There's multiple forms of these hormones that can be stored,

533
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 2: and I do believe that there will be some form

534
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 2: of home brewed option that will most likely continue to

535
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 2: exist even if prescribed hormones get restricted. And part of

536
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 2: why I emphasize kind of doing this in person as well,

537
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: especially if you're a minor, that will just get more

538
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 2: dangerous to do under a second Trump term. I will

539
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: point people to the website DIYHRT dot wiki. It's currently

540
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: the best information source on dosing testing, how to find

541
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 2: supplies and options for ordering hormones now, because changing legal

542
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 2: paperwork on the federal or state level often takes a while.

543
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 2: If that's something that you want to do, now is

544
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 2: the time to start. There's still seventy days until Trump

545
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 2: takes office and some of these changes could start being

546
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: put into effect. You should absolutely apply for a passport now.

547
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: Depending on many variables, it may be advantageous to have

548
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 2: your legal name and gender marker match whatever you more

549
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 2: easily pass as, rather than your gender identity. Now I

550
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 2: understand why this is less than ideal and if you

551
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 2: think that this might just inhibit your transition progress and

552
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 2: push you further back into the closet, especially if the

553
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 2: option of changing your gender marker on federal documents just

554
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 2: like goes away during the next four years, then people

555
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 2: should just go ahead and get that stuff changed asap.

556
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 2: But it's something to reflect on and consider. Lastly, I

557
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 2: want to mention something about personal safety. Over the course

558
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 2: of the past week, I've heard from friends around the

559
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 2: country experiencing a spike in anti queer and misogynistic violence. Chuds,

560
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 2: frat boys, and just asshole men have been way more

561
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: willing to just to openly harass queer people out in public.

562
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: Some of this I think is just Trump supporters quote

563
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,719
Speaker 2: unquote celebrating the election results. But once Trump takes office,

564
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 2: I expect this type of harassment to start slowly increasing

565
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: as truds feel like they can get away with more

566
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: just open misogyny, homophobia, racism, etc. I know a lot

567
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 2: of people have been talking about or posting about buying firearms,

568
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 2: and firearms is one of the last things you should

569
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: buy in a panic. This is a very careful and

570
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 2: calculated choice for you to make about your own personal safety,

571
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 2: your own mental health, your own willingness to carry and

572
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 2: train with the gun. This is its own topic, but

573
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 2: I do recommend buying and carrying pepper jel for basically

574
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 2: all queer people and women. It's a great self defense tool.

575
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 2: It spreads less than pepper spray, so you're going to

576
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 2: be less likely to just spray yourself. Saber is a

577
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 2: good brand. Buy it for yourself, buy it for your friends. Uh, Mia,

578
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 2: do you have anything else you want to add?

579
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 4: Yeah?

580
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, two things. One, people have been asking for book Macrumentation,

581
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: so we're giving them to you.

582
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 4: We're only given to you to you at the end

583
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 4: of the episodes. You got to stay around.

584
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 3: And I think something that's good to read in this

585
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 3: moment on trans issues is Julius Serrano's book Whipping Girl.

586
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 3: I've had Julius Runno on the show before. She is

587
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 3: one of the most important, I mean, honestly like feminist

588
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 3: theorists of the last of this century. And there's a

589
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 3: new addition, Whipping Girl, that's come out recently, and it

590
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 3: is it is one of the fundamental sort of texts

591
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 3: to understand the experience to transfend people in this country

592
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 3: and why things have gotten the way that they've gotten.

593
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 3: So yeah, go go read Whipping Girl. It's spectacular. And

594
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: then I want to plug one more thing that you

595
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 3: can give money to. So I mean again, another very

596
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 3: effective way for CIS people to support trans people is

597
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 3: give them money, because all of us are unbelievably broke

598
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 3: like all of the time. Another place you can give

599
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 3: money to is the Trans Justice Funding Project. We'll have

600
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: that in this too. When they base, they give out

601
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 3: grants to other just like transgroups who are doing organizing

602
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 3: or doing other kinds of sort of support work, mutual land,

603
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera. So that's money that goes directly

604
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 3: to trans people.

605
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:44,719
Speaker 4: Yeah.

606
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 3: And then obviously, as we've said, this is the forces

607
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 3: people part of the episode. After our after our four

608
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 3: trans people part, go call your congress people, Go pressure them,

609
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 3: Go show up to their offices and make it extremely

610
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 3: that it is unacceptable to write off trans people and

611
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 3: that they need to be willing to successfully stop these

612
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 3: writers and successfully do whatever they can to chant out

613
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: the works to make sure that the Republicans cannot pass

614
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: bills that will harm us even more than the things

615
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 3: that they're already going to do with.

616
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome back to it could happen here.

617
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: I'm Robert Evans, and you know, along with all of

618
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: their correspondents, I'm looking forward to what we can expect

619
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: from the Trump administration, which is a broad and far

620
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 1: reaching question given the ambitions that Trump and the others

621
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: who I think will be involved in this new administration

622
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 1: have already expressed. And the elevator pitch theme of today's

623
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: episode is what's going to happen in Gaza once Trump

624
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: is president again? Will things get better or worse? Obviously

625
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: the expectation is worse. I think that's where certainly the

626
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: safe money goes if you're putting money on this. But

627
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 1: the short answer to that question is no, one fully

628
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: knows now. The first thing that I did when trying

629
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: to prepare for this episode was tracked down as many

630
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: articles as I could that included interviews with Gazin's about

631
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: their expectations, and those expectations were largely negative, but a

632
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,959
Speaker 1: little more mixed than you might expect. A Reuter's reporter

633
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: interviewed Abu Osama, living in Conunis in the southern Gaza strip.

634
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: He called Trump's election a quote new catastrophe in the

635
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: history of the Palestinian people, adding despite the destruction, death

636
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: and displacement that we have witnessed, what is coming will

637
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 1: be more difficult. It will be politically devastating. This essentially

638
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 1: agrees with what a Palistinian from Batel lahis in the

639
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 1: Northern Gaza Strip, Ahmed Jerad told Al Jazeera quote. Trump

640
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,959
Speaker 1: and Netanyahu are an evil alliance against the Palestinians, and

641
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: our fate will be very difficult, not only in the

642
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: fateful issues, but also in our daily concerns. This is

643
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: a sad day for Palestinians. Trump will endorse Netnah who's

644
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: free hand regarding the possibility of the return of settlements

645
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: to the Gaza Strip and even the displacement of large

646
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 1: numbers of Palestinians outside it. We hope to return to

647
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: the north, and now all of our hopes have been shattered,

648
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 1: and unfortunately Jerad's fears here have been immediately proven well founded.

649
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: On November sixth, as the rest of the world reeled

650
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: from Trump's victory, IDF Brigadier General Itzig Kohen told Israeli

651
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: reporters there is no intention of allowing the residents of

652
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: the Northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes. Humanitarian

653
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: aid would only be allowed to enter through the south.

654
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: His justification was that there are no more civilians in

655
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: the north reporting from the Guardian interviewed several international humanitarian

656
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: law experts, and the members of that likely dying field

657
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 1: described Israeli actions here as war crimes. The forcible transfer

658
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: of civilian populations and the use of food as a

659
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: weapon are supposed to be banned. Despite this, we can

660
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: safely assume that there will be no serious consequences as

661
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 1: a result of any of this. Now, the timing of

662
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 1: this announcement was predominant, and it is not unreasonable to

663
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 1: suggest that Israel might not have been as bold as

664
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: they're currently being if Harris had won Another Gosen seventy

665
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: year old doctor Zakia Hilal told Al Jazeera it is

666
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,720
Speaker 1: true that American administrations do not differ in supporting Israel,

667
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,720
Speaker 1: but some are more severe and more intense than others,

668
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: like Trump. You can find numerous gosins expressing feelings along

669
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 1: these lines if you read long enough, But you will

670
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: also find a number who feel like what's coming won't

671
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 1: be worse, or at least won't be very different from

672
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: what they've already endured. Jehad Malaka, a researcher at the

673
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: Palestinian Planning Center, told Al Jazeera he does not expect

674
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,240
Speaker 1: Trump's administration to be wildly different from Biden's In this regard,

675
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: Trump uses rough tools and Biden and the Democrats resort

676
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 1: to soft tools, but the politics.

677
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: Are the same.

678
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 1: Biden did not make any decision in favor of the

679
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 1: Palestinians and was unable to achieve a ceasefire. He did

680
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: not change the reality of the decisions of his predecessor

681
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 1: Trump at all. The positions of the two administrations regarding

682
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: Israel are the same and identical, and they put its

683
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: interests above all other considerations. You can also find some

684
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 1: Gosins who see a sliver of hope in Trump's new administration.

685
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: Reuter spoke with the owner of a grocery store in Gaza,

686
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 1: Khaled Desuso, who told their reporter, I think Donald Trump,

687
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 1: if he wins, he promised the Muslim people in America

688
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: to stop the war in Gaza. We hope that happens,

689
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 1: and it's not necessarily absurd to hope that there may

690
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: be some positive effects here. Trump has said many horrible

691
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 1: things about Palestinians, obviously, several weeks before the election, he

692
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: had a phone call with net Nyahoo that may have

693
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 1: been a viihilation of the Logan Act, although laws don't

694
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 1: really matter anymore. Here's howslate dot Com summarized what happened

695
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 1: in that call. According to Trump, the Israeli leaders said

696
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: he disregarded President Joe Biden's warning to keep troops out

697
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: of Rafa in southern Gaza, a decision that resulted in

698
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 1: the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a shootout

699
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 1: in the area. Trump also said nat Nyahu asked him

700
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,280
Speaker 1: for advice on how to respond to Iran's missile attack

701
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 1: on Israel, to which Trump said he responded, do whatever

702
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 1: you have to do. Now, that's a dire sign, and

703
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: it is impossible to imagine that a new Trump regime

704
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 1: won't restart the sale in shipment of specific munitions that

705
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 1: Biden banned for export to Israel this July. Biden halted

706
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 1: the shipment of two thousand pound bombs to the IDF

707
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: because quote, they cannot be used in Gaza or any

708
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 1: populated area without causing great human tragedy and damage. Now,

709
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 1: the fact that munitions like this will very likely be

710
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: used is hideous, and I think it's extremely unlikely that

711
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: we do not see an immediate rise in the death toll.

712
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 1: But at the same time, Israel's extant acts have caused

713
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 1: great human tragedy and damage. The munitions they have have

714
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: already been responsible for calamitous death and destruction on a

715
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: fairly wide scale. So where's the cause for any optimism

716
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: on this at all? It comes from Trump's own self interest.

717
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: As Khalide Desuso noted, Trump ran promising to end wars.

718
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 1: This means he does have some vested interest, even if

719
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 1: only in his own ego, in forcing NETANYAHUO to draw

720
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: things to a close in short order. And there is

721
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 1: indeed reporting that Trump has told net Nyahu to wrap

722
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 1: things up by January so that he can take office

723
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: with an end to the conflict and ideally use that

724
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: as a way to kind of bolster his early popularity

725
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 1: and gain some political capital for the other sweeping changes

726
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 1: he wants to make.

727
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 4: Now.

728
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 1: The fact that Trump is pushing net Nyahu on ending

729
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 1: things in January doesn't mean a sudden, peaceful ceasefire. For

730
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: one thing, nothing is going to happen in the months

731
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 1: between then and now to reduce the level of bloodshed,

732
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 1: and almost every likely theoretical ends with Israel massively escalating

733
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 1: violence and using new, more destructive weapons before bringing an

734
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: end to their campaign. But it does mean that Trump

735
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: might be able to pressure bb to bring things to

736
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: an end. There's a good article on this in the BBC.

737
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: No guarantees Trump will give net Yahoo all he wants now.

738
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 1: In that piece, Mid East correspondent Lucy Williamson writes, Donald

739
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,399
Speaker 1: Trump's first term in office was exemplary as far as

740
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: Israel is concerned. Said Michael Oran, a former Israeli ambassador

741
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 1: to the United States, The hope is that he'll revisit that.

742
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: We have to be very clear sighted about who Donald

743
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: Trump is and what he stands for. Firstly, he said,

744
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 1: the former president doesn't like wars, seeing them as expensive.

745
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: Trump has urged Israel to finish the war in Gaza quickly.

746
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 1: He's also not a big fan of israel settlements in

747
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,399
Speaker 1: the occupied West Bank, has set Ambassador Oran, and has

748
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: opposed the wishes of some Israeli leaders to annex parts

749
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: of it. Both of these policies could put him in

750
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: conflict with far right parties in Netanyahu's current governing coalition,

751
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 1: who have threatened to bring down the government if the

752
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 1: Prime Minister pursues policies they reject. Michael Orrin believes net

753
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: Nyaho will need to take a different approach with the

754
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 1: incoming president. If Donald Trump comes to office in January

755
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: and says, Okay, you have a week to finish the war,

756
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 1: net Yahoo is going to have to respect that. And

757
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 1: we'll continue talking about what this means. But first, here's samants.

758
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: So it is possible that we will see a quick

759
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: end to the violence in January, and perhaps a quicker

760
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 1: one than we would have seen under Harris. That's the

761
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: best case scenario and not necessarily the likeliest one, and

762
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: I should re emphasize here that best case scenario still

763
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 1: means that we will probably see a massive escalation in

764
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: violence as the IDF seeks to force more people out

765
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 1: of northern Gaza and in the conflict, with a large

766
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 1: slice of Gaza permanently wrenched from Palestinian control and handed

767
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 1: over to Israeli settlers, there is no version of what

768
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: comes next that is not a calamity to the Palestinian people. Now,

769
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 1: the signs from within the Israeli government on what a

770
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 1: new Trump administration means for them are certainly bullish, you

771
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: could say, and reading these tea leaves provides very little

772
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 1: fuel for optimism. It Mar ben Vere, the Minister of

773
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:40,240
Speaker 1: National Security, posted yes with several less's and an emoji

774
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: of a flexed bicep in a post on social media.

775
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 1: When the first good return started coming in for Trump

776
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,479
Speaker 1: on the day of the election itself, and a sign

777
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 1: of confidence in the coming results, bib netanyahuo fired his

778
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,479
Speaker 1: Defense minister Jove Gallant, who had been his primary point

779
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 1: of contact with the Biden administration, and it's harder to

780
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,360
Speaker 1: imagine a much more direct sign of what he wants

781
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: to do than that.

782
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 5: Now.

783
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 1: I've struggled to present the sweep of possible results of this,

784
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 1: and it bears reiterating that the bulk of predictions from

785
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: Gazans who are plugged into the politics of the region

786
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 1: are incredibly negative. Ahmed Fayad, an independent researcher in Israeli

787
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 1: affairs who currently resides in central Gaza, told Al Jazeera

788
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: that he felt Trump's influence would be entirely negative, adding

789
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: that Trump was a quote more dominating figure than Biden,

790
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: and his influence would allow net Nyahu to quote conquer

791
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 1: Gaza quote amidst the weakened Palestinian front and absence of

792
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 1: any Arab unity and solidarity, the whole Palestinian cause faces

793
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 1: its worst threat yet. Now what does bear watching is

794
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 1: the degree to which Biebe might face threats from his

795
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 1: own right flank. Netniahu himself is almost certainly on the

796
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: side of doing what will please his patron Trump all

797
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: the more, and that would be forcing a quick, violent

798
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 1: end to the fighting and taking Northern Gaza as the

799
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 1: spoils of war. But this might bring him into conflict

800
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 1: with radicals on his own side, who can't be placated

801
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 1: by anything but what they would see as total victory.

802
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 1: In the event net Nyahu feels pushed, it is not

803
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: impossible that he will wind up in conflict with Trump.

804
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 1: This has happened before, as BB's sense of self preservation

805
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 1: led him to take actions that enraged Trump. The best

806
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 1: example of this took place in the immediate aftermath of

807
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,399
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty election. If you want to think back

808
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 1: to those happier days, b B was again the first

809
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 1: world leader to call and offer Biden congratulations on his victory,

810
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 1: as he was with Trump. This is a habit for

811
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,919
Speaker 1: the man, who, among other things, is an expert at

812
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: toadying for favor with US leaders. Trump was livid, and

813
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: he spoke out about this, telling Israeli journalist Barak Ravid

814
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: that he believed that he had saved Israel from destruction,

815
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,280
Speaker 1: and in response, net Nyahoo had stabbed him in the back.

816
00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 1: I'm to quote now from an article in the BBC

817
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 1: six Mister Trump accused mister net Yahoo of congratulating too

818
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 1: quickly mister Trump's successor Joe Biden on winning the twenty

819
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 1: twenty US election. Mister Trump disputed the election result, though

820
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: his claims were never upheld. The first person who congratulated

821
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 1: Joe Biden was Bebe, the man that I did more

822
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: for than any other person I dealt with. Bibe could

823
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 1: have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake. He

824
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 1: was very early, mister Trump said, like earlier than most.

825
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: I haven't spoken to him since.

826
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 4: Fuck him.

827
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 1: I actually don't know that he said fuck The actual

828
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 1: text of the article says expletive him. But I'm assuming

829
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,879
Speaker 1: he said fuck him. I think that's probably a fair

830
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,760
Speaker 1: assumption for me to make. Now, some evidence does suggest

831
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 1: that Trump and Bebe don't personally get along, as that

832
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 1: quote I just read implies, certainly not to the degree

833
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 1: that net Yahou and Biden once did once. I should

834
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,280
Speaker 1: say this may hinge partly on the fact that Trump

835
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: really only believes in himself and his own benefit, whereas

836
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: Joe Biden was a strong and committed bl in Israel

837
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,800
Speaker 1: and was willing to take actions against his own political

838
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 1: self interest in furtherance of that belief. And we've all

839
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 1: seen where those actions got him. Just last December, Trump

840
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: attacked Netnyahoo at an early campaign rally in New York,

841
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 1: saying bb had quote let us down by pulling Israeli

842
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 1: support for the operation that killed Iranian General Cossam Solomani

843
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: at the last minute. He also criticized the Israeli leader

844
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 1: for not being prepared for Hermas's October seventh attack. Now,

845
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: I want to be clear here that these divisions between

846
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 1: both men are blisteringly unlikely to mean anything that approaches

847
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 1: relief for the Palestinian people, at least in the near term.

848
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 1: The immediate and probably long term future of Gaza is

849
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,720
Speaker 1: much bleaker today than it was a few weeks ago.

850
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 1: The Guardian recently published an article interviewing former CIA director

851
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 1: and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. He predicted Trump would give

852
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 1: Bibe a blank check for aggression which might invite the

853
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 1: possibility of open war with Iran. Now that's the kind

854
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 1: of thing that can lead one to panic, especially when

855
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: you assume a guy like Panetta is privy to a

856
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: lot of inside information. We may not be, but I'm

857
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,879
Speaker 1: actually not really sure that he is. I don't see

858
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 1: any evidence from this article that Panetta is speaking from

859
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 1: direct personal knowledge about extant plans to carry out an attack. Instead,

860
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 1: he quoted Trump's description of the call that Trump had

861
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 1: had with BB before the election, telling net, yahou do

862
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 1: whatever you have to do. So Leon may just be

863
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 1: working from the same information the rest of us have

864
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: and coming to a somewhat different conclusion. I'm not as

865
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 1: sure as he is about an imminent attack on Iran

866
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 1: because Trump campaigned heavily on ending wars, and while I

867
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: don't credit Trump is a particularly honest man, I do

868
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 1: think he sees his personal benefit right now in being

869
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 1: able to portray himself as a peacemaker, in part because

870
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 1: he has so much domestically he wants to do, and

871
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,320
Speaker 1: so much else internationally he wants to do. Right, Expending

872
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 1: a bunch of political capital d with the kinds of

873
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 1: protests and unrest and even anger from his base that

874
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 1: a war with Iran would mean, especially once it gets

875
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: bogged down in the kind of violence that would come

876
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: with that, He may not and likely doesn't see that

877
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: as being of benefit to him. Now, that doesn't mean

878
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: it will never happen. It doesn't mean his calculus won't change.

879
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 1: I do foresee some situations in which Trump might decide

880
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: that his personal benefit is in there being a wider

881
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 1: ground conflict with Iran that US forces get drawn into.

882
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 1: You know, we'll talk a little bit about some of

883
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 1: the possibilities around this, and we're getting outside of the

884
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 1: realm of kind of established fact at this point, but

885
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 1: I do think it's worth considering some of this. But

886
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: first consider these ads. So, when we talk about the

887
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: possibility of a ground conflict with Iran starting between Israel

888
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:02,720
Speaker 1: and ira but almost inevitably drawing in more US forces,

889
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: the known unknowns and unknown knowns in this situation are

890
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 1: pretty staggering. If I let myself analyze every possibility, my

891
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 1: mind can go to some dark places. Trump sees war

892
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 1: with Iran as a negative, now, I'm quite sure, But

893
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: how would he feel about it in the wake of, say,

894
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 1: a Musk centered plan to in the Federal Reserve and

895
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 1: tank the dollar in the wake of the changes that

896
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 1: all of his immigration policies would make on the price

897
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 1: of food, the Pression era levels of inflation and unemployment

898
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 1: returning to the United States, and the attendant social unrest

899
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 1: that that would cause. If Americans find themselves on the

900
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 1: verge of food rights, perhaps Trump would gamble on war

901
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 1: being the best distraction he could manage. It's certainly not impossible. Now,

902
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 1: I don't know how useful it is to bury myself

903
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:51,439
Speaker 1: in theoreticals and probabilities. The known threats are dire enough,

904
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,320
Speaker 1: and they demand full time awareness in order to attempt

905
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: to counter and endure. So instead of spiraling, I'm going

906
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: to leave you today with the words of another Gazan,

907
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:01,840
Speaker 1: Mohammed R.

908
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 5: Mausch.

909
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 1: He's a journalist who wrote an article for MSNBC right

910
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: after the election titled My family and I Survived the

911
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: War in Gaza. We know Trump's America won't save us,

912
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 1: and here's Mohammed for us. The election of Donald Trump

913
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 1: isn't just a blip on the political radar or a

914
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 1: shift in foreign policy. It's a challenge to sustain existence.

915
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 1: While the world seems intent on erasing us. It's about

916
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 1: surviving seventy seven years under occupation and over a year

917
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 1: of ongoing genocide, the very genocide I barely survived last December,

918
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 1: when my family and I, including my elderly parents and

919
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: three year old son, were buried under the rubble of

920
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: what was once our home after it was struck by

921
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 1: an Israeli fired US missile. The date December seventh, twenty

922
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: twenty three. Our bones were crushed between layers of concrete

923
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 1: and twisted metal as we spent hours in the dark,

924
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 1: buried together and praying to be pulled out in one piece.

925
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 1: The trauma of that night, in both its physical and

926
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 1: emotional toll, of my son's small, fragile hand and clinging

927
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 1: to mind, comes back to me now as Trump prepares

928
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:08,240
Speaker 1: to take power once more. I've seen how American political

929
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,879
Speaker 1: leader's toy with the idea of change. How they dress

930
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:14,360
Speaker 1: up their campaigns with grand ideas about peace and justice,

931
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: yet each president brushes off our reality. Barack Obama promised

932
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: hope and change we could believe in, yet we got

933
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: more bombs. Joe Biden offered a different approach, pledging and

934
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: yielding support for Israel, leaving US to live through even

935
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 1: more horror. Vice President Kamala Harris's niceties included no concrete

936
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 1: promises to protect Palestinians, but she did pledge to continue

937
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: financial support for Israel, and Trump's blundness as he promises

938
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 1: to come back swinging reminds us not to hold out.

939
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 4: Hope for change.

940
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 1: So, you know, not much optimism here, but I do

941
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 1: really recommend reading that article that MSNBC published. You know,

942
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:59,440
Speaker 1: it's bleak, but important, especially given the fact that you know,

943
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 1: we may be soon entering a world where it would

944
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 1: be harder for people like Muhammad to express their feelings

945
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: and their truth to an audience. I don't think it's

946
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 1: unlikely that a clamp down is coming on some of

947
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 1: these things. It's hard to say how extensive it will be,

948
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 1: but there's a threat that Israel and their backers see,

949
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 1: and the way that public sympathy has built so quickly

950
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 1: for Gaza in a way that wasn't present with a

951
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 1: lot of previous stages of violence between Israel and Gaza.

952
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 1: Right now, this is the result of a lot of

953
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 1: videos spreading on social media. It's the result on voices

954
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 1: from Gaza getting out and getting to people in a

955
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 1: way they really hadn't before. And so one thing that

956
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 1: does worry me greatly when I think about what's going

957
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 1: to happen in Gaza under President Trump is not just

958
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:50,760
Speaker 1: what's going to happen to the people living there right now,

959
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: but what's going to happen to their ability to tell

960
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,879
Speaker 1: their story to get information out to the rest of us.

961
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: That is very much an open question at this moment,

962
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 1: but it's certainly one that should be on your lips,

963
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 1: and it's one that we will be investigating here at

964
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 1: Cool Zone as long as we're able to continue doing

965
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 1: that until next time. I'm Robert Evans. We'll be back

966
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 1: tomorrow and every other day reporting on you know the world.

967
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 3: Welcome to It Happened Here, a podcast that's about trade policy.

968
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:40,879
Speaker 4: Now I'm your host, Bia Wong.

969
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 3: This is amazingly going to be the fun one of

970
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 3: all of these episodes.

971
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 4: It's about working tariffs. So it's gonna be a long week.

972
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, That was the voice of the singular Garrison Davis,

973
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 3: the one the only.

974
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 2: Yes, Hello, I'm excited to hear about tariffs. It's tariff

975
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 2: here and it could happen here. One of my favorite

976
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 2: favorite topics I guess now, all.

977
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 4: Right, Garash, we're putting you on the spot. What is

978
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 4: a tariff? It's basically googling tariff.

979
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 2: No, A tariff is when Trump says China's bad, so

980
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 2: he makes China pay extra money to sell their goods

981
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 2: to Americans, and luckily China pays for all of it,

982
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 2: and the American consumer gets off with a boosting economy.

983
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:32,479
Speaker 4: That's at least what I've heard.

984
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, So unfortunately for every one I don't know, I guess,

985
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 3: I guess there's some acceleration this who are probably really

986
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 3: excited about this most certainly. The way this actually works is, okay,

987
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 3: so the government sets up a tariff, and that means

988
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,879
Speaker 3: if anyone is bringing a good into the US, they

989
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:51,359
Speaker 3: have to pay the tariff on it, and that money

990
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 3: goes to the government. So, okay, There's been a long

991
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 3: history of tariffs in the US. This is a huge

992
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 3: domestic policy think, particularly in the eighteen hundreds.

993
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 4: Be fucking boring.

994
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 3: The incredibly short version of it is that the thing

995
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:07,440
Speaker 3: about tariffs is that, especially like tariffs on a specific sector,

996
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 3: is that they're good for you manufacturing that thing kind

997
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:13,879
Speaker 3: of mostly, and they're bad for anyone trying to buy

998
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 3: that good because it's now more expensive. So Trump's plan,

999
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 3: and we're going to get into a bit more detail

1000
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 3: about this, because there's parts of Trump's tariff plan that

1001
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 3: everyone seems to have forgotten about for some reason that

1002
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 3: I don't know why they've forgotten about. But the basic

1003
00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:31,280
Speaker 3: plan is to impose something like a ten to twenty

1004
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 3: percent tariff on all goods that enter the US from anywhere.

1005
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 3: There's specifically one for Mexico, but the numbers on what

1006
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 3: the Mexico tariff is changes every time he opens his mouth.

1007
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 3: Sometimes it's like twenty five percent. There's one where it's

1008
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 3: like two hundred and fifty percent. Of course, two interchangeable percentages. Yeah,

1009
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 3: and then for China, it's supposed to be a tariff

1010
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 3: of somewhere between sixty sixty percent is the most commonly

1011
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 3: sided number. But he's also set one hundred percent.

1012
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:01,399
Speaker 4: Tariff once again and basically the same thing.

1013
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, And so you know, part of what we, unfortunately

1014
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 3: the rest of us who live in the normal world,

1015
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 3: have to do is figure out what is actually going

1016
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 3: to happen if we get, for example, twenty percent tariffs

1017
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,760
Speaker 3: on all goods entering the US. And a sixty percent

1018
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 3: tariff on goods from China. So the first thing you

1019
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 3: need to understand. I think most people kind of get

1020
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:23,239
Speaker 3: this now. But the thing about a tariff is that

1021
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:25,319
Speaker 3: you pay for it. So the way that it works

1022
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 3: in general is that this is just an additional cost

1023
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 3: for the company that's doing it, that's doing the like

1024
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:34,040
Speaker 3: moving the good around, right, and so they are almost

1025
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:37,280
Speaker 3: always going to just pass that cost directly on to you. Obviously,

1026
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 3: sometimes we've talked about pricing the way that pricing works

1027
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:43,359
Speaker 3: a lot on this show. Companies tend not to want

1028
00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 3: to raise prices, largely because of their effects on consumer

1029
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:49,760
Speaker 3: happiness and brand loyalty and stuff like that. So sometimes

1030
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 3: people will just eat shit on it. But if you're

1031
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 3: talking about a sixty percent tariff, like you, the sixty

1032
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:56,319
Speaker 3: percent tariff is going to be paid for by you.

1033
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 2: So that means that anytime we buy something that's either

1034
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,840
Speaker 2: from Mexico or China or any of the other countries,

1035
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:06,960
Speaker 2: that this will be applied to the easiest way for

1036
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:09,319
Speaker 2: these for these companies to get around the tariff is

1037
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 2: just to pass off the cost of the consumer.

1038
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's actually worse than that because and This

1039
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 3: is something I don't think people really understand when you

1040
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:20,240
Speaker 3: think about global trade, right people tend to think about

1041
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 3: trade as something that happens between countries, and this is

1042
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 3: something that was an old you know dreamlike the anti

1043
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: globalization movement.

1044
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 4: People sort of understood this.

1045
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 3: And kind of don't now. Trade doesn't actually really happen

1046
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 3: between countries. Most trade is one company, an international company,

1047
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:38,359
Speaker 3: moving a resource from one country to another. Right So,

1048
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 3: like trade is fucking Amazon moving something from a warehouse

1049
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:43,920
Speaker 3: in one country to warehouse in a second country.

1050
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 4: Right now.

1051
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:49,399
Speaker 3: I've seen a lot of people, and this ranges from

1052
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 3: like very very serious sort of you know, news sources

1053
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 3: and economists trying to sort of just directly model what

1054
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:56,839
Speaker 3: the price increases are going to be. I've seen people

1055
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:58,399
Speaker 3: be like, oh, your shirts are going to cost sixty

1056
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 3: percent more, or video games will stop existing because they're

1057
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 3: too expensive, and who gives a shit? Why are we

1058
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:08,600
Speaker 3: even trying to do sectoral modeling of the impacts of this.

1059
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 3: If you try to impose a sixty to one hundred

1060
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 3: percent tariff on goods from China and a twenty percent

1061
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 3: tariff on all goes into the country, the economy will collapse.

1062
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 3: I don't know why everyone is pretending that this won't

1063
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:22,240
Speaker 3: fucking happen. We're going to get into it a second.

1064
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 3: I guess the reason why people are pretending this is

1065
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 3: happening because the way they're doing the modeling kind of

1066
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 3: assumes that it won't, which is baffling, incomprehensible nonsense.

1067
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 2: Well, and that's especially amusing because the seemingly biggest issue

1068
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 2: this year around politics has been inflation, which has impacted

1069
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:42,480
Speaker 2: every country around the globe. The US is actually whether

1070
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:47,319
Speaker 2: that decently well, although there's been a catastrophic failure in

1071
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 2: communicating that and listening to the actual complaints from people

1072
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:55,240
Speaker 2: on how they're still struggling with rising inflation. But still

1073
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 2: a big reason why Trump was elected is because he

1074
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 2: simply is not Joe Bideneh, and he's not from the

1075
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 2: Biden Harris administration, and there's this perception that he will

1076
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,360
Speaker 2: be able to fix the economy, he will be able

1077
00:57:06,640 --> 00:57:10,759
Speaker 2: to get around inflation lower prices, when seemingly his main

1078
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:14,200
Speaker 2: economic proposal will lead to what's probably going to be

1079
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 2: an economic collapse if it happens in the brutality of

1080
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 2: which he proposes.

1081
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:20,919
Speaker 3: And there's another element of this right when I say

1082
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,440
Speaker 3: that the likely result of Trump actually trying to implement

1083
00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 3: his tariff policy is a global economic collapse. There's another

1084
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 3: part of this that everyone seems to have forgotten. And

1085
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 3: I don't know why they've forgotten this. I guess it's

1086
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 3: because nobody actually reads any of the things that Trump

1087
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 3: puts out on his website.

1088
00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:36,919
Speaker 2: Which is true. No one actually reads that stuff. It's nuts,

1089
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:39,760
Speaker 2: especially his own supporters. Yeah, a majority of his own

1090
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 2: supporters do not pay attention to like Daily News.

1091
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 3: Yes, and now I remember this because I did an

1092
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 3: episode about these tariffs like six months ago. And one

1093
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 3: of the things about this, he has a thing called

1094
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 3: Agenda forty seven, right, which is his agenda for what

1095
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 3: he's going to do when he takes.

1096
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 4: Power, which no one has cared about.

1097
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 2: And now everyone is going through and posting policy proposals

1098
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 2: from like fucking two years ago with the headline breaking

1099
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:04,200
Speaker 2: news Trump announces a new plan. They're like, no, he has.

1100
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 4: This, This a our old plans.

1101
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:08,040
Speaker 2: This stuff is like two years old. He's been openly

1102
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 2: talking about all that.

1103
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, Frages, And one of the important parts of this,

1104
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna read this quote because it is a

1105
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 3: part of this has been ignored by every single fucking

1106
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 3: analysis I've seen from like fucking the Center for American Progress,

1107
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 3: who obviously we're gonna screw this up to like Stamford's labs,

1108
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 3: Like everyone who's been writing about this has just ignored

1109
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 3: this part, which is quote as one of his top

1110
00:58:27,240 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 3: economic priorities. President Trump will stop the flow of American

1111
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 3: jobs overseas by passing the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act. Under

1112
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 3: the landmark legislation, if any foreign country imposes a tariff

1113
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 3: on American made goods that is higher than the tariff

1114
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 3: imposed by the US, President Trump will have the authority

1115
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 3: to impose a reciprocal tariff on that country's goods. Okay,

1116
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:49,800
Speaker 3: So what this would do again is that any country

1117
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 3: that has a tariff already or imposes a tariff, And

1118
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 3: this is important if we get into a trade war

1119
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 3: where countries start imposing tariffs on each other in retaliation

1120
00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 3: for their other terrorists, which is what happens when he

1121
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 3: did this trade war, which in like twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen.

1122
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 3: That means that we're also going to impose a tariff,

1123
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 3: which means that the tariff rates don't stay at ten

1124
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 3: to twenty percent. They cyclically spiral upwards.

1125
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 2: That's just like an escalating series of terrorifts.

1126
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the thing is right, the policy process that

1127
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 3: they have on his page are like, well, okay, we're

1128
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 3: gonna do this, do like a presidential act, right, But

1129
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 3: the thing is the president actually has really, really, under

1130
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 3: a number of different acts, has extremely wide discretionary authority

1131
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:28,959
Speaker 3: to set tariffs as long as he can basically sort

1132
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 3: of like cobble together some kind of bullshit excuse for it.

1133
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 3: And at that point you're relying on the Supreme Court

1134
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:37,760
Speaker 3: to stop literally anything that Trump does, like don't give

1135
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 3: a shit.

1136
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I don't know.

1137
00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 3: Maybe someone will like go up to like can Clarence

1138
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:45,200
Speaker 3: Thomas and go like, hey, if we do this like

1139
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 3: importing new like windshield wipers for your RV is going

1140
00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:51,080
Speaker 3: to cost ten million dollars more or whatever, But like

1141
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 3: there's no shot of this stuff getting stuff. And the

1142
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 3: thing is right, the reciprocal tariff stuff. He could just

1143
00:59:57,680 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 3: do this through his existing teriff authority. He doesn't Actually

1144
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:01,920
Speaker 3: you need to pass something through Congress. W should actually

1145
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:03,960
Speaker 3: be I think tricky for him, but he doesn't need.

1146
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 2: To do you know what we need to do right now,

1147
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 2: Thomia just badly, badly put to a bunch of companies

1148
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 2: that are going to be absolutely fucking viscerated if this

1149
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 2: goes through.

1150
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 4: That's right.

1151
01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 2: Donald Trump stands for anti capitalist action. He's going to

1152
01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 2: destroy free trade. So enjoy these ads when you still can. Okay,

1153
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 2: we are back Mia. Let's hear how Trump is going

1154
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:37,800
Speaker 2: to perfect the capitalist economic system by a series of

1155
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 2: escalating tariffs that will destroy the economy and in doing so,

1156
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:43,480
Speaker 2: but about the opportunity for Marxist to size power and

1157
01:00:43,920 --> 01:00:45,520
Speaker 2: change the world economic system.

1158
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:48,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm going to read another quote from that

1159
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 3: same agenda forty seven thing quote. For example, food items

1160
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:55,560
Speaker 3: like cereals, your other preparatory goods are tariffed at thirty

1161
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 3: two point nine percent by India and nineteen point five

1162
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,240
Speaker 3: percent by China, and only three point one percent by

1163
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:03,280
Speaker 3: the US. India applies a tariff of twenty five point

1164
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 3: three percent on transportation equipment, while the US only terrorists

1165
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 3: goes at two point nine percent. Now, those exact numbers

1166
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 3: are debatable, but it doesn't matter because these these are

1167
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 3: going to be vibes based ones based on how pissed

1168
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:15,440
Speaker 3: off Trump is at a country.

1169
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:18,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, as Trump is usually a vibes based guy. Yeah,

1170
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 2: especially when it comes to the economy, especially when it

1171
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 2: comes to like these numbers he's pulling out like between

1172
01:01:23,720 --> 01:01:26,600
Speaker 2: sixty to one hundred percent. He doesn't know what any

1173
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 2: of those numbers means. He's just thinking of a number

1174
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 2: and saying it out loud.

1175
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 3: And the thing about all of these things, right, even

1176
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 3: just the base twenty percent, or let's let's go to

1177
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:38,120
Speaker 3: the lowest numbers he's talked about, which is a ten

1178
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 3: percent tariff on all goods and a sixty percent tariff

1179
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:45,240
Speaker 3: on Chinese goods. Right, that in and of itself blows

1180
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 3: a smoking crater in the world economy. And none of

1181
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 3: the assessments that you will read are talking about this.

1182
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:54,160
Speaker 3: One of the things that they will mention that is true,

1183
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:56,400
Speaker 3: but they're not, you know, getting to the importance of

1184
01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:59,000
Speaker 3: is that this affects stuff that's made in the US.

1185
01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:01,280
Speaker 3: Because the thing about things that are made in the

1186
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 3: US is that they're made from components that are from elsewhere,

1187
01:02:03,880 --> 01:02:05,880
Speaker 3: because that's how international supply chains work.

1188
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:09,000
Speaker 2: Oh wait, even though we have through tariffs and moved

1189
01:02:09,040 --> 01:02:13,080
Speaker 2: all manufacturing of Toyota into the United states. You're saying

1190
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 2: that still some of the materials are not all solely

1191
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 2: made him produced within the country, and it actually requires

1192
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:20,320
Speaker 2: unfeign trade.

1193
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, and part of the problem I think of, like, Okay,

1194
01:02:22,840 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 3: so if you logically think out the conclusions of what

1195
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 3: that means.

1196
01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 2: Right, first mistake Abia that you're trying to solve this

1197
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 2: problem through logic.

1198
01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 3: Well, but here's the thing, right, Obviously Trump is not

1199
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 3: going to think through this, right, But I kind of

1200
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 3: expect people who are like writing about this for a

1201
01:02:39,000 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 3: living to do mildly better than this.

1202
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 2: And possibly some of the people that he like hires

1203
01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:44,600
Speaker 2: onto his cabinet and team.

1204
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:45,640
Speaker 6: Maybe, but we'll.

1205
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 3: Say, no, I'm not talking about like his critics. Oh sure, sure,

1206
01:02:48,560 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 3: one of the numbers will see all the time. The

1207
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 3: Center for American Progress has this line of how the

1208
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:54,840
Speaker 3: terrofts will function his attacks that cost the America consume

1209
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 3: for like seventeen hundred dollars a year.

1210
01:02:56,720 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 2: Right, which was the line that Kamala used pretty often. Yeah,

1211
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 2: framing as tariffs as like a sales tax.

1212
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:04,760
Speaker 4: This is fucking horseshit.

1213
01:03:05,360 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 3: The only way you can think that the net effect

1214
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:10,720
Speaker 3: of this would just be a seventeen hundred dollars tax

1215
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 3: is if you don't understand how the economy works at all. Right,

1216
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:15,280
Speaker 3: So I went through and read this, and the way

1217
01:03:15,320 --> 01:03:17,840
Speaker 3: that they model it is just by like they find

1218
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:21,600
Speaker 3: the like net dollar value of imported goods and then

1219
01:03:21,640 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 3: apply a tax to it, and then try to figure

1220
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 3: out like how much of those goods that the average

1221
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:28,360
Speaker 3: person would buy in a year, and then increase the price.

1222
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:30,560
Speaker 4: But and this is the thing that's very important.

1223
01:03:30,560 --> 01:03:31,840
Speaker 3: At the end of the analysis, right right at the

1224
01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:33,360
Speaker 3: very end, there's a little section where they say that

1225
01:03:33,360 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 3: they assumed this would have no other effects on the economy.

1226
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:39,880
Speaker 3: This is unbelievably fucking stupid. Can I emphasize enough? Can

1227
01:03:39,920 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 3: you explain why that doesn't make any sense?

1228
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:41,920
Speaker 7: So?

1229
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:45,120
Speaker 3: Okay, So here's the thing. Right, prices go up. Now

1230
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 3: people can buy less things. What does that do to

1231
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:51,080
Speaker 3: the economy, Well, it slows its growth rate. Right, Companies

1232
01:03:51,080 --> 01:03:52,560
Speaker 3: start to go out of business. And we're gonna get

1233
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 3: me into more of the ways that this plays out

1234
01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 3: in a second. Right, But a bunch of people in

1235
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:00,640
Speaker 3: a bunch of places fucking lose their jobs because suddenly

1236
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 3: the reduction and consumer demand means that there's a fucking

1237
01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 3: reduction necessary production, and this has cyclical effects throughout the

1238
01:04:07,560 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 3: entire economy as more and more people fucking lose their jobs.

1239
01:04:10,120 --> 01:04:12,320
Speaker 3: And also, you know, the thing about those people who

1240
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:14,520
Speaker 3: lose their jobs is that that also fucking reduces demand

1241
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 3: because those people are now even less able to afford

1242
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 3: the stuff that's been increased by inflation prices, and this

1243
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:24,160
Speaker 3: this spirals through the entire world economy.

1244
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:25,680
Speaker 4: In order to.

1245
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:28,160
Speaker 3: Understand what exactly this is going to do, I think

1246
01:04:28,200 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 3: we need to understand why, you know, because like if

1247
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:33,080
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, I don't know if it makes any difference

1248
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:35,440
Speaker 3: in the election, but Kamala Harris walks of the stage

1249
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:38,600
Speaker 3: and says this is going to cost you seventeen hundred dollars.

1250
01:04:38,600 --> 01:04:40,160
Speaker 3: She does not walk on the stage and say this

1251
01:04:40,200 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 3: is going to cause an economic collapse, right, And I

1252
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 3: think the reason that happened is because we've gotten into

1253
01:04:45,720 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 3: this place where nobody fucking understands how the economy works

1254
01:04:48,080 --> 01:04:50,040
Speaker 3: at all, in a way that's even worse than it

1255
01:04:50,160 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 3: was even in like the twenty tens. Like in the

1256
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:54,680
Speaker 3: twenty tens, I think people sort of had a vague

1257
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 3: understanding the thing that was happening to the economy was uberization,

1258
01:04:57,840 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 3: whatever you call it, was the expansion of gigwork. Right,

1259
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:02,680
Speaker 3: there was sort of an understanding and a focus on

1260
01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:05,520
Speaker 3: the very sort of low level parts of the economy,

1261
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 3: like what are you a poor person doing for your job?

1262
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:10,240
Speaker 4: Right? How does how does your income work?

1263
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:15,400
Speaker 3: And not purely on these sort of like high finance

1264
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:17,320
Speaker 3: or in the case in the case of what's been

1265
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:20,360
Speaker 3: happening here, everyone has been unbelievably completely focused on like

1266
01:05:20,880 --> 01:05:24,560
Speaker 3: the Chips Act and like state led industrialization and all

1267
01:05:24,600 --> 01:05:27,160
Speaker 3: that stuff is fucking bullshit. It's it basically hasn't done

1268
01:05:27,200 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 3: anything yet, it's not going to do anything for like

1269
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 3: a decade, and it's not mostly what's going on in

1270
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:35,040
Speaker 3: the economy. I've been holding my tongue on this for years,

1271
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 3: but the people who have been writing about the economy

1272
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:40,480
Speaker 3: don't understand how the fuck it works because they've been

1273
01:05:40,480 --> 01:05:42,840
Speaker 3: completely myopically obsessed with the idea that we're in this

1274
01:05:42,880 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 3: new era of state capitalism and no like the actual

1275
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 3: thing that's been happening in the economy. And I think

1276
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 3: if you are like a person who buys stuff, you

1277
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:55,480
Speaker 3: probably understand this. But for some reason this has never

1278
01:05:55,520 --> 01:05:58,919
Speaker 3: made it to like economists or like people who fucking

1279
01:05:58,920 --> 01:06:02,000
Speaker 3: write about the economy for a lot. Thing is consumer

1280
01:06:02,040 --> 01:06:05,600
Speaker 3: to manufacturer sales. So this is stuff like Temu, This

1281
01:06:05,640 --> 01:06:09,240
Speaker 3: is stuff like shean who and I mean invented. It's

1282
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 3: a strong word, but they're one of the first people

1283
01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:13,480
Speaker 3: who sort of popularized this model, right, And this is

1284
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 3: the thing where you have a platform that lets people

1285
01:06:15,720 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 3: like nominally buy directly from the factories or from you know,

1286
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 3: the people who are producing fruit, right, and these factories

1287
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 3: aren't producing goods until basically either people order the goods

1288
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:30,160
Speaker 3: or like analytics tells them to order it, so they

1289
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 3: don't have a lot of the problems that other kind

1290
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:35,400
Speaker 3: of like distribution models have. You have a bunch of

1291
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:37,400
Speaker 3: good sitting in a warehouse, like you just don't have

1292
01:06:37,440 --> 01:06:39,680
Speaker 3: that because you don't start production until your sort of

1293
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 3: orders come in, your analytics come in. And the theory

1294
01:06:41,720 --> 01:06:44,040
Speaker 3: here is you can reduce costs by eliminating the middleman.

1295
01:06:44,160 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 3: But of course a new kind of middleman emerged, and

1296
01:06:46,800 --> 01:06:48,520
Speaker 3: that is the drop shipper.

1297
01:06:49,680 --> 01:06:49,919
Speaker 4: God.

1298
01:06:50,040 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 3: So the drop shipper is just someone using the consumer

1299
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:57,080
Speaker 3: to manufacturer pipeline. Right that the platforms that are supposed

1300
01:06:57,080 --> 01:06:59,280
Speaker 3: to let you the consumer sort of just like buy

1301
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 3: directly from the thing and cut out mailmen. It's just

1302
01:07:01,600 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 3: someone doing that but then turning around and selling you

1303
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:09,320
Speaker 3: the result. And this has become just utterly fucking ubiquitous

1304
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 3: in the American economy. It's it's sort of like an

1305
01:07:11,200 --> 01:07:14,760
Speaker 3: integral part of the American scam economy now too, as

1306
01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:17,000
Speaker 3: the American economy has been increasingly sort of riddled and

1307
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:19,480
Speaker 3: consumed by scams and riddled and consumed by sort of

1308
01:07:19,600 --> 01:07:23,439
Speaker 3: like people trying to capitalize on like some fucking meme

1309
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:25,080
Speaker 3: or some political thing. You know, you have all these

1310
01:07:25,080 --> 01:07:27,080
Speaker 3: people doing like drop ship t shirts right where they

1311
01:07:27,080 --> 01:07:28,400
Speaker 3: can immediately come in and.

1312
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:30,680
Speaker 4: Ye sell all of this stuff.

1313
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 2: These like short lived like trend meme based either like

1314
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:36,320
Speaker 2: fashion or even like goods. You know, you can talk

1315
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:39,440
Speaker 2: about like the amount of like content creator merch that

1316
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:42,040
Speaker 2: is all funneled through these like drop shipping companies.

1317
01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's it's also what's been it's a thing

1318
01:07:44,240 --> 01:07:46,720
Speaker 3: that's enabled like fast fashion to function in.

1319
01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:49,000
Speaker 4: The way that it is right now, right absolutely.

1320
01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:52,640
Speaker 3: And this has become what consumption is in large swaths

1321
01:07:52,680 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 3: of the world is from this sort of like direct

1322
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 3: to consumer drop shipping shit, right. Yeah, Now, the thing

1323
01:07:58,680 --> 01:08:01,120
Speaker 3: about about these drop shipping things is that their profit

1324
01:08:01,160 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 3: margins are really really low. They don't make that much money,

1325
01:08:04,520 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 3: and in fact, a lot of these things like hemorrhage

1326
01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 3: money until they've basically you know, they do the thing

1327
01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:10,560
Speaker 3: that Amazon did, right, where like you lose money for

1328
01:08:10,600 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 3: a million years, but then eventually you have enough market

1329
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:13,479
Speaker 3: chourney you start making money again.

1330
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, because you make it so all your competitors basically

1331
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:18,320
Speaker 2: can't function because you have prices that are so low.

1332
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 2: And then when you're the only one in the game

1333
01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:23,720
Speaker 2: with a sizeable power influence, you can raise prices and

1334
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 2: then you make tons of money. Also the Uber model,

1335
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:29,439
Speaker 2: although Uber still is improfitable. Yeah, well so yeah, Uber

1336
01:08:29,479 --> 01:08:30,400
Speaker 2: will never make any money.

1337
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:30,599
Speaker 4: Right.

1338
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:33,720
Speaker 3: But the other thing here that's important is that, you know,

1339
01:08:33,760 --> 01:08:36,720
Speaker 3: so the margins of a company like Temu, right, which

1340
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:39,000
Speaker 3: is like probably the biggest of these sort of companies now,

1341
01:08:39,120 --> 01:08:42,439
Speaker 3: are low. But Temu technically has tech money, Like they

1342
01:08:42,479 --> 01:08:44,920
Speaker 3: have money to back them up, right, you know, who

1343
01:08:45,000 --> 01:08:48,160
Speaker 3: doesn't have an unbelievable amount of just like capital sitting

1344
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:50,080
Speaker 3: around that they could just instantly pull from if suddenly

1345
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:52,559
Speaker 3: there is I don't know, a sixty percent fucking price shock.

1346
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:55,760
Speaker 3: Oh wait, it's all of the fucking manufacturing you know,

1347
01:08:55,920 --> 01:08:59,240
Speaker 3: like tiny manufacturing firms that these drop shipping things use

1348
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:00,439
Speaker 3: to produce all their stuff.

1349
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:00,880
Speaker 4: Right.

1350
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 3: That infrastructure is very fragile. It's it's margins are very bad.

1351
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 3: And oh guess what happens to that shit if you

1352
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:09,680
Speaker 3: impose sixty percent terrafs on it?

1353
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:12,599
Speaker 4: Right, it just shuts down because that's the easiest option, right.

1354
01:09:12,760 --> 01:09:14,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know, and presumably I think one of

1355
01:09:14,640 --> 01:09:16,760
Speaker 3: the other parts of this would be part of the

1356
01:09:16,800 --> 01:09:18,680
Speaker 3: reason this has been happening is that all of this

1357
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:22,000
Speaker 3: office are being imported like under terriff loopholes. But like

1358
01:09:22,040 --> 01:09:26,799
Speaker 3: that loopholes not hard to close, right, What terraf loopoles

1359
01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:29,720
Speaker 3: are you referring to? Oh yeah, so I talked about

1360
01:09:29,720 --> 01:09:32,280
Speaker 3: this in the ten episode. Those loopholes on American terriffs

1361
01:09:32,320 --> 01:09:34,400
Speaker 3: were like, if you're if you're bringing stuff into the

1362
01:09:34,400 --> 01:09:37,439
Speaker 3: country that's below a certain value, it has to be

1363
01:09:37,439 --> 01:09:39,719
Speaker 3: above like a six hundred dollars something to like trigger

1364
01:09:39,760 --> 01:09:44,200
Speaker 3: a threshold, okay, to like activate the teriffs applying to it.

1365
01:09:44,240 --> 01:09:47,080
Speaker 3: So people just ship a bunch of like one billion

1366
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:50,880
Speaker 3: boxes individually that are like five hundred and ninety nine

1367
01:09:50,920 --> 01:09:52,639
Speaker 3: dollars to go under the thing.

1368
01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:55,840
Speaker 2: So you're saying I can still maybe buy my new

1369
01:09:55,880 --> 01:09:59,360
Speaker 2: Sonic the Hedgehog PS five game, though, that should be fine.

1370
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 4: I'll be totally good. Oh god, okay.

1371
01:10:02,360 --> 01:10:04,720
Speaker 3: So the other part of this that's important, right, So

1372
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:06,719
Speaker 3: this is the kind of I don't know of news

1373
01:10:06,760 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 3: the right word, but this is the kind of recent

1374
01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:11,720
Speaker 3: part of the economy that's incredibly dependent on Chinese supply chains, right,

1375
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:15,320
Speaker 3: that gets just liquefied if these terrorists go through. These

1376
01:10:15,320 --> 01:10:19,040
Speaker 3: are enormous companies that you know are going to just

1377
01:10:19,160 --> 01:10:22,200
Speaker 3: eat shit, and those companies eating shit have these sort

1378
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:23,840
Speaker 3: of effects we talked about earlier, right, which is it

1379
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,760
Speaker 3: caused people to get fired, it causes growth collapses, it

1380
01:10:26,800 --> 01:10:30,559
Speaker 3: causes cyclical decreases in people's ability to buy things, and

1381
01:10:30,600 --> 01:10:33,840
Speaker 3: then also like demand decreases because people can't buy things.

1382
01:10:34,800 --> 01:10:37,400
Speaker 3: But this is like the new school supply chain stuff.

1383
01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:37,639
Speaker 4: Right.

1384
01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:41,400
Speaker 3: Temu's a product of really the last six or seven years,

1385
01:10:41,960 --> 01:10:43,840
Speaker 3: and it really only functions the way it does now

1386
01:10:43,880 --> 01:10:47,479
Speaker 3: in the lasts about four but the previous two eras

1387
01:10:47,479 --> 01:10:49,200
Speaker 3: of supply some logistics, right, which is sort of wal

1388
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:52,479
Speaker 3: Mart and Amazon are both also almost completely dependent on

1389
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:53,400
Speaker 3: Chinese supply chains.

1390
01:10:53,479 --> 01:10:53,599
Speaker 6: Right.

1391
01:10:53,680 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a good JD super article which is they're

1392
01:10:56,400 --> 01:11:00,479
Speaker 3: like a business intelligence website, right, you know, talks about

1393
01:11:00,479 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 3: how Walmart imports seventy percent of all of it's goods

1394
01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:03,759
Speaker 3: from China.

1395
01:11:04,240 --> 01:11:07,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, that track seventy percent seven zero, right.

1396
01:11:07,479 --> 01:11:09,639
Speaker 3: And the reason that it works like this is because

1397
01:11:09,800 --> 01:11:12,800
Speaker 3: Walmart's entire business model, all of their supply chains, all

1398
01:11:12,800 --> 01:11:15,960
Speaker 3: of their logistics, everything that they do, right was was

1399
01:11:16,000 --> 01:11:19,200
Speaker 3: designed basically hand in hand to be integrated into Chinese

1400
01:11:19,200 --> 01:11:20,000
Speaker 3: economic production.

1401
01:11:20,560 --> 01:11:23,680
Speaker 4: And you can't just move that shit instantly, right.

1402
01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:25,680
Speaker 3: And this is also true of something like Amazon, right

1403
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:28,120
Speaker 3: where Amazon, like sixty three percent of independent sellers on

1404
01:11:28,160 --> 01:11:30,600
Speaker 3: Amazon this is from the same source are Chinese.

1405
01:11:30,680 --> 01:11:30,880
Speaker 7: Right.

1406
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:34,840
Speaker 3: So what you're dealing with is vast parts of the

1407
01:11:34,880 --> 01:11:37,800
Speaker 3: American economy, right, The parts of the American economy that

1408
01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:42,720
Speaker 3: you interface to buy things are based on goods that

1409
01:11:42,760 --> 01:11:44,840
Speaker 3: are suddenly going to have like sixty to one hundred

1410
01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:48,599
Speaker 3: percent tariff stapled onto them. Now, the thing that people

1411
01:11:48,680 --> 01:11:51,559
Speaker 3: have been talking about as the like, oh well, here's

1412
01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:53,920
Speaker 3: the thing that will happen instead instead like, instead of

1413
01:11:53,960 --> 01:11:56,439
Speaker 3: the thing that's pretty obviously going to happen if this

1414
01:11:56,479 --> 01:11:58,640
Speaker 3: have happens, which is just that the economic bubble we're

1415
01:11:58,680 --> 01:12:01,479
Speaker 3: in pops and everything s to go to shit. People

1416
01:12:01,479 --> 01:12:03,680
Speaker 3: have been like, oh, well, this will just accelerate the

1417
01:12:03,720 --> 01:12:07,360
Speaker 3: shift of production of goods out from China. And like

1418
01:12:08,400 --> 01:12:11,000
Speaker 3: I've been talking about this for like a fuck decade, right,

1419
01:12:11,280 --> 01:12:13,559
Speaker 3: Like the journal Chwung is something that I talk about

1420
01:12:13,600 --> 01:12:15,000
Speaker 3: a lot that I record on. People really has been

1421
01:12:15,000 --> 01:12:17,439
Speaker 3: talking about this for literally ages and ages and ages.

1422
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:21,080
Speaker 3: So people have been trying to move production out of

1423
01:12:21,160 --> 01:12:23,040
Speaker 3: China for ages. I mean, like one of the first

1424
01:12:23,080 --> 01:12:25,439
Speaker 3: big attempts to do this was in twenty eleven when

1425
01:12:25,439 --> 01:12:27,280
Speaker 3: there is there's a series of riots in China, and

1426
01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:30,599
Speaker 3: people tried to move production of goods out of China

1427
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:32,000
Speaker 3: and they couldn't do it. And the reason that they

1428
01:12:32,040 --> 01:12:34,439
Speaker 3: couldn't do it was because you have to find a

1429
01:12:34,479 --> 01:12:37,599
Speaker 3: country that has both like a relatively skilled and educated

1430
01:12:37,680 --> 01:12:41,719
Speaker 3: labor force and also has the infrastructure to be able

1431
01:12:41,760 --> 01:12:45,080
Speaker 3: to like match Chinese production. And so they we're talking

1432
01:12:45,080 --> 01:12:47,240
Speaker 3: about things like they have to have like a functioning

1433
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:50,200
Speaker 3: electrical grid that is stable enough for.

1434
01:12:50,160 --> 01:12:50,960
Speaker 4: Production to function.

1435
01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:53,240
Speaker 3: And this rules out an enormous number of countries and

1436
01:12:53,360 --> 01:12:56,880
Speaker 3: it's just really really hard. And yeah, like Chinese capital

1437
01:12:56,880 --> 01:12:58,880
Speaker 3: has been moving away from its sort of old centers

1438
01:12:58,880 --> 01:12:59,880
Speaker 3: and the prop of delta to.

1439
01:13:00,720 --> 01:13:01,759
Speaker 4: Places like Vietnam.

1440
01:13:01,920 --> 01:13:04,559
Speaker 3: Right, but and this is the fucking big one, right,

1441
01:13:04,840 --> 01:13:06,600
Speaker 3: A lot of a lot of what's been happening for

1442
01:13:06,840 --> 01:13:08,479
Speaker 3: people have been talking about this thing called quote quote

1443
01:13:08,520 --> 01:13:11,200
Speaker 3: unquote decoupling, which is which is this the separation of

1444
01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:13,240
Speaker 3: the US and Chinese economy so that they're not like it,

1445
01:13:13,240 --> 01:13:16,200
Speaker 3: they're trying with each other. People think this is good

1446
01:13:16,240 --> 01:13:18,759
Speaker 3: for ideological reasons, or they think it's just something that's happening,

1447
01:13:18,760 --> 01:13:21,320
Speaker 3: and it's not. It's not happening. You know what else

1448
01:13:21,400 --> 01:13:25,000
Speaker 3: isn't happening. It's us not plugging these products and services.

1449
01:13:25,080 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 2: I think we do legally have to plug them. So

1450
01:13:27,439 --> 01:13:30,879
Speaker 2: here they are. Here's the plugs for the products and services.

1451
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:41,120
Speaker 4: All right.

1452
01:13:41,160 --> 01:13:43,400
Speaker 3: Now, now that you've decoupled yourself from your money to

1453
01:13:43,400 --> 01:13:45,320
Speaker 3: buy these products and services, let's let's talk at at

1454
01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:47,280
Speaker 3: bit more about why decoupling is fucking bullshit.

1455
01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:48,160
Speaker 5: One.

1456
01:13:48,320 --> 01:13:49,800
Speaker 3: And I've been to something I've been saying on the

1457
01:13:49,800 --> 01:13:53,400
Speaker 3: show for years, like people have this sort of fantasy

1458
01:13:53,439 --> 01:13:56,640
Speaker 3: that what's happening is that, Okay, instead of making your

1459
01:13:56,640 --> 01:13:58,559
Speaker 3: thing in China, you make your thing somewhere else. And

1460
01:13:58,600 --> 01:14:00,679
Speaker 3: this means that American companies no longer have the supply

1461
01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:03,559
Speaker 3: chains running through China. That's not what's happening at all.

1462
01:14:03,680 --> 01:14:06,120
Speaker 3: On the financial front, where you have is actually increasing

1463
01:14:06,120 --> 01:14:09,400
Speaker 3: integration as as China attempts to sort of like you know,

1464
01:14:09,439 --> 01:14:12,559
Speaker 3: has been lifting restrictions on the ownership of different types

1465
01:14:12,600 --> 01:14:15,080
Speaker 3: of corporations to make it easier for foreign owners to

1466
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:17,479
Speaker 3: actually come in and invest and put capital in China. Right,

1467
01:14:17,800 --> 01:14:19,360
Speaker 3: the second thing that's happening is a lot of these

1468
01:14:19,400 --> 01:14:21,760
Speaker 3: supposedly like we're cutting China out of the supply chain things,

1469
01:14:21,800 --> 01:14:24,479
Speaker 3: have been a bunch of Chinese companies starts starting to

1470
01:14:24,479 --> 01:14:27,599
Speaker 3: set up production in Mexico. Now, the thing about that, right,

1471
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:30,040
Speaker 3: if Mexico was supposed to be the fucking panacea for

1472
01:14:30,040 --> 01:14:33,360
Speaker 3: getting us out of these tariffs, remember that Trump was

1473
01:14:33,400 --> 01:14:36,479
Speaker 3: talking about two hundred percent tariffs on Mexico, and that's

1474
01:14:36,520 --> 01:14:38,599
Speaker 3: the country that's supposed to like fucking get us out

1475
01:14:38,640 --> 01:14:40,639
Speaker 3: of this mess by like, oh, we'll be fine because

1476
01:14:40,720 --> 01:14:42,960
Speaker 3: like production will to shift away from China to like

1477
01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:46,080
Speaker 3: to where like a lot of the assumptions I was

1478
01:14:46,120 --> 01:14:47,639
Speaker 3: reading was like people were talking about, oh, the production

1479
01:14:47,680 --> 01:14:49,040
Speaker 3: will like twenty five percent of production will like.

1480
01:14:49,000 --> 01:14:51,240
Speaker 4: Shift to Canada. It's like, no, it won't do.

1481
01:14:51,400 --> 01:14:53,479
Speaker 3: Canada doesn't have the fucking production facilities to do They're like,

1482
01:14:53,479 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 3: what are you talking about, Like.

1483
01:14:55,160 --> 01:14:58,439
Speaker 4: Canada doesn't have the population to do that. No, it doesn't.

1484
01:14:58,920 --> 01:15:01,240
Speaker 3: This is this sort of problem, right, you know, on

1485
01:15:01,280 --> 01:15:03,840
Speaker 3: the one hand, you know, China has been de industrializing

1486
01:15:03,920 --> 01:15:06,840
Speaker 3: for like a decade and a half now, right, and

1487
01:15:06,920 --> 01:15:09,160
Speaker 3: kind of slowly, but the percentage of the population that's

1488
01:15:09,200 --> 01:15:11,960
Speaker 3: working in manufacturing has been steadily decreasing for years and

1489
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:15,639
Speaker 3: years and years and years. But the problem is that

1490
01:15:16,080 --> 01:15:18,639
Speaker 3: when you move production out of a place, you actually

1491
01:15:18,640 --> 01:15:21,160
Speaker 3: have to have a second place to produce it, and

1492
01:15:21,200 --> 01:15:24,040
Speaker 3: there just haven't been right, Like you It's it's pretty

1493
01:15:24,040 --> 01:15:26,599
Speaker 3: easy to move low end manufacturing. This is what's been happening, right,

1494
01:15:26,640 --> 01:15:29,080
Speaker 3: Like really cheap garment stuff, for example, has been has

1495
01:15:29,080 --> 01:15:30,000
Speaker 3: been moving to places like.

1496
01:15:29,920 --> 01:15:31,360
Speaker 4: Bangladesh and Vietnam for a while.

1497
01:15:31,640 --> 01:15:33,479
Speaker 3: But once you start getting into the stuff that China

1498
01:15:33,479 --> 01:15:35,519
Speaker 3: produces like the most of right, which is things like

1499
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:39,760
Speaker 3: fucking cell phones, sort of mid tier commodity production that

1500
01:15:39,840 --> 01:15:41,360
Speaker 3: gets way way, way, way way harder.

1501
01:15:41,560 --> 01:15:43,000
Speaker 4: No, but the Chips Act will save us.

1502
01:15:43,040 --> 01:15:43,080
Speaker 3: Me.

1503
01:15:43,320 --> 01:15:45,920
Speaker 4: I heard it from everyone on the television. I just

1504
01:15:45,960 --> 01:15:46,360
Speaker 4: got this.

1505
01:15:46,479 --> 01:15:48,160
Speaker 3: This is the sort of thing about this, right is

1506
01:15:48,200 --> 01:15:50,120
Speaker 3: if you look, if you read the analysis that people

1507
01:15:50,120 --> 01:15:51,760
Speaker 3: are doing of this, they just sort of assume that

1508
01:15:51,800 --> 01:15:55,639
Speaker 3: you can just like, oh well, like naturally a bunch

1509
01:15:55,640 --> 01:15:58,000
Speaker 3: of the consumption that Americans are doing will stay the

1510
01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:00,320
Speaker 3: same because they'll go buy goods that aren't produced in China.

1511
01:16:00,320 --> 01:16:03,040
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, like where where are you finding these

1512
01:16:03,160 --> 01:16:06,280
Speaker 3: goods from? Like what production facilities are you just like

1513
01:16:06,320 --> 01:16:08,720
Speaker 3: suddenly that have just been like sitting there fallow are

1514
01:16:08,760 --> 01:16:11,439
Speaker 3: just suddenly gonna like a PEERI out of nowhere.

1515
01:16:11,840 --> 01:16:13,679
Speaker 4: And the answer is like, that's not going to happen.

1516
01:16:14,240 --> 01:16:14,680
Speaker 4: And it's not.

1517
01:16:14,760 --> 01:16:16,519
Speaker 3: It's not going to happen, partially because they don't exist.

1518
01:16:16,640 --> 01:16:20,479
Speaker 3: Partially because again, the immediate consequence of this is a

1519
01:16:20,479 --> 01:16:23,479
Speaker 3: massive economic labs. China's economy has already been slowing for

1520
01:16:23,520 --> 01:16:25,880
Speaker 3: the like basically, I mean it's been slowing since like

1521
01:16:26,000 --> 01:16:26,920
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight.

1522
01:16:27,479 --> 01:16:28,439
Speaker 4: Really wow, I see.

1523
01:16:28,280 --> 01:16:31,240
Speaker 3: Has an eleven kind of but it's especially been slowing

1524
01:16:31,240 --> 01:16:32,920
Speaker 3: in the past two or three years because of sort

1525
01:16:32,920 --> 01:16:36,000
Speaker 3: of COVID restriction stuff and also just a kind of

1526
01:16:36,080 --> 01:16:40,040
Speaker 3: lackluster rate of returns on their own, like they had

1527
01:16:40,080 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 3: their own version of the two thousand and eight housing bubble,

1528
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:46,600
Speaker 3: and that's annihilated and unbelievable amount of money because it

1529
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:50,120
Speaker 3: turns out investing in real estate doesn't work as is

1530
01:16:50,160 --> 01:16:51,840
Speaker 3: basis for your economy. But like that's the thing, right,

1531
01:16:51,880 --> 01:16:54,519
Speaker 3: if the Chinese economy fucking goes down, right, that's like

1532
01:16:54,560 --> 01:16:58,000
Speaker 3: that's seventeen percent of the world's GDP. Seventeen yeah, of

1533
01:16:58,080 --> 01:17:01,799
Speaker 3: the total GDP, right, And it's like the economy isn't

1534
01:17:02,400 --> 01:17:05,440
Speaker 3: national in a way where you can have an economic

1535
01:17:05,479 --> 01:17:08,240
Speaker 3: collapse in another country, in just a country that's that

1536
01:17:08,320 --> 01:17:09,880
Speaker 3: large and ignore it. And the thing I want to

1537
01:17:09,880 --> 01:17:11,640
Speaker 3: close on, and the reason we know that this is

1538
01:17:11,680 --> 01:17:15,400
Speaker 3: true is that it is actually possible kind of to

1539
01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:17,480
Speaker 3: restart america domestic manufacturing.

1540
01:17:17,560 --> 01:17:17,760
Speaker 4: Right.

1541
01:17:17,840 --> 01:17:19,600
Speaker 3: Reagan was able to do it in the eighties. And

1542
01:17:19,640 --> 01:17:22,160
Speaker 3: Reagan did it through this thing called the Plaza Accords

1543
01:17:22,760 --> 01:17:27,280
Speaker 3: where he basically he didn't literally put the prime ministers

1544
01:17:27,320 --> 01:17:30,080
Speaker 3: of Japan and West Germany at gunpoint, but he basically

1545
01:17:30,080 --> 01:17:33,200
Speaker 3: put them at gunpoint and forced them to increase the

1546
01:17:33,280 --> 01:17:35,840
Speaker 3: value of their currencies so that the US currency would devalue,

1547
01:17:35,840 --> 01:17:38,400
Speaker 3: which would admit which makes it like a more competitive

1548
01:17:38,439 --> 01:17:41,519
Speaker 3: export economy. And this actually brought back American manufacturing for

1549
01:17:41,560 --> 01:17:44,240
Speaker 3: a while until it had to all be reversed under

1550
01:17:44,240 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 3: the Clinton administration and the Reverse Plaza Accords, because the

1551
01:17:47,520 --> 01:17:49,400
Speaker 3: problem was when you sort of nuke to the zero

1552
01:17:49,479 --> 01:17:53,160
Speaker 3: sum manufacturing of a country like Japan, their fucking economy

1553
01:17:53,160 --> 01:17:55,880
Speaker 3: didn't work anymore. And in order to sort of bail

1554
01:17:55,920 --> 01:17:58,160
Speaker 3: out the Japanese economy and stop just a sort of

1555
01:17:58,200 --> 01:18:01,200
Speaker 3: world running economic collapse, I would have just like tore

1556
01:18:01,320 --> 01:18:03,599
Speaker 3: the absolute shit out of the economy. The US had

1557
01:18:03,600 --> 01:18:05,599
Speaker 3: to fucking reincrease the value of its currency and lose

1558
01:18:05,600 --> 01:18:08,799
Speaker 3: its whole domestic production base. Right You can't actually increase

1559
01:18:08,840 --> 01:18:11,400
Speaker 3: a production base in the world right now without decreasing

1560
01:18:11,439 --> 01:18:14,280
Speaker 3: it somewhere else, and that has sort of staggering, ripple

1561
01:18:14,320 --> 01:18:18,120
Speaker 3: economic effects for the entire global economy, which is why

1562
01:18:18,200 --> 01:18:21,800
Speaker 3: even if Trust's plan worked somehow and didn't immediately cause

1563
01:18:21,840 --> 01:18:25,839
Speaker 3: an economic collapse by like the direct effect on American consumers,

1564
01:18:25,880 --> 01:18:28,559
Speaker 3: it would cause another economic collapse by the effect on

1565
01:18:28,640 --> 01:18:29,679
Speaker 3: fucking people in China.

1566
01:18:30,160 --> 01:18:33,840
Speaker 2: So well, Mia, I think you might be overreacting here

1567
01:18:33,880 --> 01:18:38,240
Speaker 2: a little bit because at least food will be available, obviously,

1568
01:18:38,600 --> 01:18:41,360
Speaker 2: and I learned this on X My main source for

1569
01:18:41,439 --> 01:18:45,120
Speaker 2: news is that agriculture almost all done in the States,

1570
01:18:45,320 --> 01:18:48,080
Speaker 2: so we should be fine, Like, we'll still be able

1571
01:18:48,120 --> 01:18:50,960
Speaker 2: to eat food, right, I say, staring.

1572
01:18:50,800 --> 01:18:54,360
Speaker 3: No to the voice, No, you can't, because, unfortunately, think

1573
01:18:54,360 --> 01:18:57,599
Speaker 3: about American agricultures, it's all fucking mechanized agriculture. The thing

1574
01:18:57,640 --> 01:19:01,400
Speaker 3: about mechanized agriculture is that you need the mechanized part,

1575
01:19:01,439 --> 01:19:05,000
Speaker 3: and that's all fucking produced either in other countries or

1576
01:19:05,360 --> 01:19:08,920
Speaker 3: the John Deere fucking like tractor factories in the US

1577
01:19:09,479 --> 01:19:12,400
Speaker 3: are all unbelievably reliant on a bunch of parts that

1578
01:19:12,439 --> 01:19:13,320
Speaker 3: are made overseas.

1579
01:19:13,960 --> 01:19:17,639
Speaker 4: So also, we do import a great deal of food,

1580
01:19:17,720 --> 01:19:18,160
Speaker 4: well we do.

1581
01:19:18,280 --> 01:19:23,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, even just talking about the food that we produce here, right, like,

1582
01:19:23,520 --> 01:19:24,639
Speaker 3: that's also gonna be fun.

1583
01:19:24,680 --> 01:19:28,000
Speaker 2: I wonder, I wonder where your strawberries in November are

1584
01:19:28,000 --> 01:19:32,960
Speaker 2: coming from. I think the other thing to keep in

1585
01:19:33,000 --> 01:19:36,040
Speaker 2: mind here is that this is only one aspect of

1586
01:19:36,200 --> 01:19:40,360
Speaker 2: how Trump will impact the economy. Obviously, his immigration policies

1587
01:19:40,400 --> 01:19:45,679
Speaker 2: could serve a similarly large financial problem if a whole

1588
01:19:45,680 --> 01:19:49,879
Speaker 2: bunch of agricultural jobs suddenly kind of vanish, and farms

1589
01:19:49,920 --> 01:19:52,200
Speaker 2: and other processing plants just to go out of business

1590
01:19:52,360 --> 01:19:55,320
Speaker 2: due to a lack of workers. And even some people

1591
01:19:55,320 --> 01:19:59,320
Speaker 2: on Trump's team have started to acknowledge this, mostly Elon Musk,

1592
01:19:59,360 --> 01:20:03,400
Speaker 2: who has opened said that Trump's term will involve some

1593
01:20:03,479 --> 01:20:09,000
Speaker 2: quote temporary hardship, so between tariffs and mass deportations. Like

1594
01:20:09,200 --> 01:20:11,479
Speaker 2: even people on his team know that this is going

1595
01:20:11,520 --> 01:20:14,800
Speaker 2: to damage the economy, especially in the short term, if not.

1596
01:20:14,880 --> 01:20:16,320
Speaker 4: The like forever term.

1597
01:20:16,720 --> 01:20:19,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and yet he was still elected as the economically

1598
01:20:20,000 --> 01:20:20,839
Speaker 2: viable candidate.

1599
01:20:21,520 --> 01:20:21,760
Speaker 7: Yeah.

1600
01:20:21,880 --> 01:20:23,439
Speaker 3: And I think the last part we should say, and

1601
01:20:23,479 --> 01:20:27,160
Speaker 3: this is it's not that you can't like fucking obliterate

1602
01:20:27,200 --> 01:20:29,160
Speaker 3: a giant portion of the American economy and still come

1603
01:20:29,160 --> 01:20:32,439
Speaker 3: out extremely popular because you've crushed the American working class

1604
01:20:32,479 --> 01:20:35,160
Speaker 3: like that That's what Reagan did, right, Like Reagan and

1605
01:20:35,200 --> 01:20:38,760
Speaker 3: the Vulgar Shocks did this enormous, I mean, just put

1606
01:20:38,760 --> 01:20:42,120
Speaker 3: a crater in the American economy and in Reagan's first term,

1607
01:20:42,520 --> 01:20:46,280
Speaker 3: like the skyrocketing unemployment, just like real, real sort of

1608
01:20:46,280 --> 01:20:50,400
Speaker 3: economic devastation. But the thing about the vulgar shock was

1609
01:20:50,439 --> 01:20:52,960
Speaker 3: that the way he blew up the economy was really

1610
01:20:53,000 --> 01:20:55,760
Speaker 3: really good for people who like fucking owned assets, like

1611
01:20:55,800 --> 01:20:59,240
Speaker 3: people who who like owned bonds, like people like people.

1612
01:20:59,000 --> 01:21:00,760
Speaker 4: Who held other people's debt.

1613
01:21:00,960 --> 01:21:03,080
Speaker 2: He was great for those people, and like the burgeoning

1614
01:21:03,120 --> 01:21:06,920
Speaker 2: investment economy, which now kind of dominates our entire economic system.

1615
01:21:07,000 --> 01:21:08,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it was incredible for those people. And so

1616
01:21:08,680 --> 01:21:09,120
Speaker 4: it was fine.

1617
01:21:09,160 --> 01:21:11,719
Speaker 3: But think about this economic collapse, that this is also

1618
01:21:11,760 --> 01:21:14,599
Speaker 3: going to just absolutely fuck up the days of a

1619
01:21:14,640 --> 01:21:19,120
Speaker 3: bunch of extremely wealthy and influential capitalists. So including by

1620
01:21:19,120 --> 01:21:22,920
Speaker 3: the way, Elon Musk, who's tesla's are produced in China,

1621
01:21:23,640 --> 01:21:26,439
Speaker 3: Like he has a gigafactory. He's a gigafactory in shing John.

1622
01:21:26,479 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 3: So we'll see if Trump actually is able to implement

1623
01:21:29,400 --> 01:21:31,559
Speaker 3: this stuff. I think he's able to on a policy level,

1624
01:21:31,560 --> 01:21:34,200
Speaker 3: it's just politically, can he actually do these tariffs?

1625
01:21:34,560 --> 01:21:37,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's unclear. It's also unclear what exact numbers he's

1626
01:21:37,280 --> 01:21:39,719
Speaker 2: gonna run with. A ten percent tariff will still be bad,

1627
01:21:40,320 --> 01:21:42,760
Speaker 2: but it's nothing compared to one hundred percent tariff. I

1628
01:21:42,800 --> 01:21:45,519
Speaker 2: think Trump by and large just says whatever comes into

1629
01:21:45,520 --> 01:21:48,600
Speaker 2: his head without thinking through the actual logistical ends of

1630
01:21:48,640 --> 01:21:51,559
Speaker 2: what he's saying. And I think most Trump's supporters do

1631
01:21:51,680 --> 01:21:54,360
Speaker 2: not take him literally as a person, at least they

1632
01:21:54,400 --> 01:21:57,200
Speaker 2: don't take what he says necessarily literally all the time.

1633
01:21:57,760 --> 01:21:59,920
Speaker 2: They take him seriously, but perhaps not literally.

1634
01:22:00,680 --> 01:22:04,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we'll have to see how this actually plays out.

1635
01:22:04,080 --> 01:22:06,920
Speaker 3: If it does play out in the ways that Trump

1636
01:22:06,960 --> 01:22:08,519
Speaker 3: has said that it is going to play out, it

1637
01:22:08,600 --> 01:22:14,000
Speaker 3: is going to just unbelievably tank the economy in ways

1638
01:22:14,040 --> 01:22:19,519
Speaker 3: that absolutely suck. So, yeah, that's that's happening here in

1639
01:22:19,760 --> 01:22:22,720
Speaker 3: the future. Maybe that's the name of the podcast.

1640
01:22:22,360 --> 01:22:25,880
Speaker 2: Right, So stock up on your PS fives now before

1641
01:22:25,920 --> 01:22:29,000
Speaker 2: they get harder to buy, and it'll be fine. Yeah,

1642
01:22:29,040 --> 01:22:32,040
Speaker 2: there'll be nothing else bad that happens to the economy

1643
01:22:32,200 --> 01:22:33,759
Speaker 2: as long as you have your PS fives.

1644
01:22:33,960 --> 01:22:34,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1645
01:22:34,360 --> 01:22:36,599
Speaker 3: People always want fucking books to the end of episodes,

1646
01:22:36,600 --> 01:22:38,320
Speaker 3: so I'm just putting books at the end of episodes.

1647
01:22:38,479 --> 01:22:43,120
Speaker 3: This is my plugging Chwang Chu a n G'll help.

1648
01:22:43,120 --> 01:22:44,640
Speaker 3: We'll put it in the description. It's a bunch of

1649
01:22:44,640 --> 01:22:47,759
Speaker 3: stuff about Chinese economics. Mostly it's the sort of economic

1650
01:22:47,800 --> 01:22:51,320
Speaker 3: history of visionally the socialist period and the transition to capitalism.

1651
01:22:51,320 --> 01:22:54,200
Speaker 3: But it also has a bunch of very very good stuff.

1652
01:22:54,200 --> 01:22:56,120
Speaker 3: I'm trying to understand the Chinese economy. And so if

1653
01:22:56,160 --> 01:22:58,439
Speaker 3: you want to be about ten years ahead of like

1654
01:22:58,880 --> 01:23:01,679
Speaker 3: guys who write for the econ hoymist if you read Schwang,

1655
01:23:01,760 --> 01:23:03,600
Speaker 3: you will end up being like ten years ahead of

1656
01:23:03,640 --> 01:23:04,120
Speaker 3: those guys.

1657
01:23:04,439 --> 01:23:07,280
Speaker 4: So yeah, great stuff.

1658
01:23:25,880 --> 01:23:28,960
Speaker 6: All right, welcome to it could happen here. And what

1659
01:23:29,040 --> 01:23:34,040
Speaker 6: it is today is me James and Mia Wong Hi, Mia, Hello, Hi.

1660
01:23:34,240 --> 01:23:36,920
Speaker 6: What we're here to talk to you about today is

1661
01:23:36,960 --> 01:23:40,720
Speaker 6: something else, which, despite my positive tone of voice, is

1662
01:23:40,760 --> 01:23:41,599
Speaker 6: sad and depressing.

1663
01:23:41,840 --> 01:23:42,480
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1664
01:23:42,600 --> 01:23:45,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's just a lot of that, and like we

1665
01:23:45,040 --> 01:23:48,280
Speaker 6: don't want you to be too sad. It doesn't bear

1666
01:23:48,400 --> 01:23:51,519
Speaker 6: moping around, you know, like we've got time to get

1667
01:23:51,600 --> 01:23:53,479
Speaker 6: organized and that's what we should be doing. And also

1668
01:23:53,640 --> 01:23:56,439
Speaker 6: like just get out and go outside and see your

1669
01:23:56,439 --> 01:23:58,679
Speaker 6: friends and do things that bring you joy, Like we'll

1670
01:23:58,760 --> 01:24:01,800
Speaker 6: work out how to get through it. So you know, like, yep,

1671
01:24:02,120 --> 01:24:04,639
Speaker 6: I think it's really easy. And I found myself doing

1672
01:24:04,640 --> 01:24:06,559
Speaker 6: this stay at home and be sad, but don't like

1673
01:24:06,600 --> 01:24:08,559
Speaker 6: I went out with some friends for a hike on Friday,

1674
01:24:08,560 --> 01:24:10,760
Speaker 6: and I feel so much better. So I would advise you

1675
01:24:10,840 --> 01:24:13,000
Speaker 6: to do that. Maybe you're listening on your hike. That

1676
01:24:13,160 --> 01:24:15,240
Speaker 6: would be fun. Actually, I think if I was hiking,

1677
01:24:15,240 --> 01:24:16,960
Speaker 6: I would I would skip this one and listen to

1678
01:24:16,960 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 6: the birds and uh, you know, enjoy the outdoors.

1679
01:24:21,160 --> 01:24:23,280
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, you know, if if you want the

1680
01:24:23,280 --> 01:24:26,559
Speaker 3: ideological framing event, the ideological framing of it is that

1681
01:24:26,600 --> 01:24:30,920
Speaker 3: morale is a charade of struggle. Yes, and it is

1682
01:24:31,280 --> 01:24:34,519
Speaker 3: very easy to lose if your morale is absolutely terrible.

1683
01:24:34,880 --> 01:24:38,760
Speaker 6: So, yeah, we got four years. We can't be being

1684
01:24:38,800 --> 01:24:41,400
Speaker 6: moping around like we will get through it. We will

1685
01:24:41,400 --> 01:24:44,680
Speaker 6: find ways to make it better. And part of the

1686
01:24:44,680 --> 01:24:46,360
Speaker 6: way we do that, yeah, is keeping Amarell up and

1687
01:24:46,400 --> 01:24:48,519
Speaker 6: doing things that bring us joy. Thing that brings me

1688
01:24:48,640 --> 01:24:53,519
Speaker 6: joy is talking about roch Java, the Autonomous Administration of

1689
01:24:53,520 --> 01:24:56,080
Speaker 6: North and East Syria, and we're going to talk about

1690
01:24:56,080 --> 01:24:58,559
Speaker 6: that today. We're talking about Donald Trump's foreign policy in

1691
01:24:58,600 --> 01:25:02,800
Speaker 6: his second term. So his previous foreign policy was a

1692
01:25:02,800 --> 01:25:05,600
Speaker 6: pretty mixed bag, and he bombed the shit out of

1693
01:25:05,600 --> 01:25:09,000
Speaker 6: the Islamic State, right cool. Based he also bombed the

1694
01:25:09,040 --> 01:25:12,640
Speaker 6: shit out of thousands of Syrian and Iraqi civilians. Not

1695
01:25:12,760 --> 01:25:16,840
Speaker 6: so cool. Also, we should note, not so different from

1696
01:25:16,880 --> 01:25:20,040
Speaker 6: every other president this century. Bombing civilians has been pretty

1697
01:25:20,120 --> 01:25:23,600
Speaker 6: much the through line of American foreign policy in that

1698
01:25:23,640 --> 01:25:26,120
Speaker 6: part of the world for a very long time, in

1699
01:25:26,120 --> 01:25:28,519
Speaker 6: particular in the Trump administration. I want to talk about

1700
01:25:28,520 --> 01:25:31,799
Speaker 6: there was a single US strike cell called Talent Annvil.

1701
01:25:32,280 --> 01:25:35,000
Speaker 6: I think they were mainly like CAG guys from what

1702
01:25:35,080 --> 01:25:39,120
Speaker 6: I read, so Delta Force guys, Army Special Forces guys

1703
01:25:39,360 --> 01:25:43,799
Speaker 6: who were making these decisions. They hired a office building

1704
01:25:43,840 --> 01:25:46,200
Speaker 6: in Syria, and these guys were constantly looking at drone

1705
01:25:46,280 --> 01:25:49,920
Speaker 6: feeds and various other information and then calling in strikes

1706
01:25:49,960 --> 01:25:52,360
Speaker 6: on various targets. Right, I'm not sure if they had

1707
01:25:52,400 --> 01:25:56,080
Speaker 6: the CAAG guys in the watching computers. I'm not entirely sure,

1708
01:25:56,080 --> 01:25:58,320
Speaker 6: and like, well he didn't have someone else who knows,

1709
01:25:58,479 --> 01:26:02,080
Speaker 6: But this strike sale dropped more than one hundred and

1710
01:26:02,080 --> 01:26:06,880
Speaker 6: twenty thousand bonds, and Jesus Christ, yeah, yeah, the amount

1711
01:26:06,880 --> 01:26:10,760
Speaker 6: of ordinance we dropped on Syria, it is insane. It

1712
01:26:10,920 --> 01:26:13,640
Speaker 6: circumvented procedures are in place to prevent Philian deaths. In

1713
01:26:13,720 --> 01:26:17,040
Speaker 6: order to do so, they had embedded lawyers who were

1714
01:26:17,040 --> 01:26:19,920
Speaker 6: supposed to approve the strikes. But these lawyers tried to

1715
01:26:20,080 --> 01:26:23,000
Speaker 6: raise the alarm that some of these strikes were reckless.

1716
01:26:23,320 --> 01:26:27,479
Speaker 6: They weren't hitting things that were actual targets, and they

1717
01:26:27,520 --> 01:26:30,280
Speaker 6: sort of ran into an organizational brick wall. At some point,

1718
01:26:30,640 --> 01:26:34,320
Speaker 6: pilots even refused to engage targets because they didn't think Jesus, Yeah,

1719
01:26:34,720 --> 01:26:36,360
Speaker 6: which it's not usual.

1720
01:26:37,600 --> 01:26:40,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, like that'd be pretty fucked for a fighter pilot

1721
01:26:40,840 --> 01:26:44,200
Speaker 3: to be like, No, I don't think I've ever.

1722
01:26:44,080 --> 01:26:44,840
Speaker 4: Heard of that before.

1723
01:26:45,040 --> 01:26:47,920
Speaker 6: No, So I found this out in uh well, I

1724
01:26:47,920 --> 01:26:51,160
Speaker 6: think it was the New York Times. In New York Times,

1725
01:26:51,200 --> 01:26:53,360
Speaker 6: a pretty good investigation which we linked in our sources.

1726
01:26:53,880 --> 01:26:57,320
Speaker 6: And yeah, it's like a throwaway line, but I would

1727
01:26:57,360 --> 01:26:59,120
Speaker 6: love to hear more about that. It could have been

1728
01:26:59,120 --> 01:27:01,799
Speaker 6: a drone pilot, which is slightly different, gig. I guess

1729
01:27:02,320 --> 01:27:05,160
Speaker 6: you know, if you're seeing north of Las Vegas there

1730
01:27:05,160 --> 01:27:08,639
Speaker 6: fling a drone, kind of a different scene. So in

1731
01:27:08,800 --> 01:27:11,360
Speaker 6: the battle to defeat the Islamic State, thousands of innucent

1732
01:27:11,400 --> 01:27:14,840
Speaker 6: people lost their lives. As we reached the end of

1733
01:27:14,840 --> 01:27:18,120
Speaker 6: that battle, Donald Trump, who's president at the time, personally

1734
01:27:18,120 --> 01:27:20,880
Speaker 6: called erda one, who's the president of Circuit at the time.

1735
01:27:20,960 --> 01:27:23,800
Speaker 6: Right in late twenty eighteen, Trump asked the one, if

1736
01:27:23,840 --> 01:27:26,840
Speaker 6: we withdraw a soldiers, can you clean up ISIS. That's

1737
01:27:26,840 --> 01:27:31,200
Speaker 6: the quote, According to an unnamed Turkish official interviewed by Reuters,

1738
01:27:31,320 --> 01:27:35,759
Speaker 6: at One replied that Turkish forces were capable of a mission. Quote,

1739
01:27:35,840 --> 01:27:38,840
Speaker 6: then you do it, Trump told him, and US as

1740
01:27:38,960 --> 01:27:41,439
Speaker 6: National Security Advisor John Bolton, who was also on the

1741
01:27:41,479 --> 01:27:44,880
Speaker 6: call to quote start work for withdrawal of US troops

1742
01:27:44,880 --> 01:27:48,360
Speaker 6: from Syria. What this resulted in was US troops putting

1743
01:27:48,360 --> 01:27:51,200
Speaker 6: out from some locations in Syria right local people threw

1744
01:27:51,240 --> 01:27:55,519
Speaker 6: tomatoes at them. Even worse than the tomatoes were the

1745
01:27:55,520 --> 01:27:59,639
Speaker 6: fact that it gave NATO's second largest army, which is Turkey,

1746
01:27:59,680 --> 01:28:04,439
Speaker 6: of course, free reign to attack the Autonomous Administration North Nessyria,

1747
01:28:04,520 --> 01:28:06,439
Speaker 6: which it did in twenty eighteen it did again in

1748
01:28:06,520 --> 01:28:10,080
Speaker 6: twenty nineteen. Those two operations to claim considerable ground in

1749
01:28:10,120 --> 01:28:15,439
Speaker 6: Syria cost countless civilian lives. Continue to perpetrate human rights

1750
01:28:15,439 --> 01:28:18,839
Speaker 6: abuses to rehabilitate people from ISIS and other Jahadi groups

1751
01:28:18,840 --> 01:28:22,519
Speaker 6: as Turkish free Syrian Army, and they kill some people

1752
01:28:22,520 --> 01:28:25,840
Speaker 6: who were people I care about, and I continue to

1753
01:28:26,560 --> 01:28:30,439
Speaker 6: care about the cause of Rajava or Autonomous Administration in

1754
01:28:30,479 --> 01:28:33,960
Speaker 6: North Nessyria very deeply. And it really fucking sucks to

1755
01:28:34,000 --> 01:28:37,519
Speaker 6: think about the potential of the US abandoning those people. Again,

1756
01:28:37,680 --> 01:28:41,120
Speaker 6: not that Biden has done very much. Yeah. Now, I

1757
01:28:41,160 --> 01:28:44,880
Speaker 6: think this anecdote, right of what Trump does with one

1758
01:28:44,920 --> 01:28:46,879
Speaker 6: tells us a lot about his approach to foreign policy,

1759
01:28:46,960 --> 01:28:50,720
Speaker 6: which is he really sees it as very transactional, which

1760
01:28:50,760 --> 01:28:52,679
Speaker 6: is not different from everything else he does. I guess

1761
01:28:52,720 --> 01:28:56,759
Speaker 6: like he's a very transactional person, and he seems really

1762
01:28:56,800 --> 01:28:58,599
Speaker 6: only to be concerned about what he can get out

1763
01:28:58,640 --> 01:29:01,280
Speaker 6: of it. So like in this case, I guess he

1764
01:29:01,360 --> 01:29:03,719
Speaker 6: wants to say he bought US troops home from Syria,

1765
01:29:03,880 --> 01:29:06,280
Speaker 6: like he's anti war. This is one of his things,

1766
01:29:06,320 --> 01:29:11,840
Speaker 6: he says now, right, but he's prepared to also in

1767
01:29:11,880 --> 01:29:14,679
Speaker 6: the case of the bombing, Right, he's not so concerned

1768
01:29:14,720 --> 01:29:17,320
Speaker 6: with civilian casualties as long as he can claim that

1769
01:29:17,439 --> 01:29:19,680
Speaker 6: he'd he was the one who defeated isis right? A

1770
01:29:19,760 --> 01:29:22,280
Speaker 6: bomber couldn't do it. He did it, and he did

1771
01:29:22,320 --> 01:29:25,080
Speaker 6: it on a pile of civilian remains, and also using

1772
01:29:25,920 --> 01:29:29,960
Speaker 6: chiefly the Syrian Democratic Forces, right, not US forces. There

1773
01:29:29,960 --> 01:29:32,439
Speaker 6: were US forces on the ground. They were engaged in combat,

1774
01:29:32,479 --> 01:29:36,559
Speaker 6: but in minuscule numbers compared to SDF, who lost fifteen

1775
01:29:36,640 --> 01:29:40,600
Speaker 6: thousand of their children in a battle against ISIS. And

1776
01:29:40,680 --> 01:29:43,040
Speaker 6: I think Trump would be very willing to admit that

1777
01:29:43,520 --> 01:29:46,040
Speaker 6: he's transactional, right, Like, that's kind of his brand, is

1778
01:29:46,080 --> 01:29:49,960
Speaker 6: like America first and fuck everyone else. So I think

1779
01:29:50,000 --> 01:29:52,519
Speaker 6: he'll probably be similar in this term.

1780
01:29:52,560 --> 01:29:52,720
Speaker 7: Right.

1781
01:29:52,760 --> 01:29:55,840
Speaker 6: He will act unilaterally, He'll pivot whenever the fuck he

1782
01:29:55,920 --> 01:29:59,200
Speaker 6: feels like it. He will continue with his affection for

1783
01:29:59,240 --> 01:30:02,040
Speaker 6: strong men and dict caters all around the world. But

1784
01:30:02,360 --> 01:30:04,840
Speaker 6: a lot of stuff has changed since Trump's first term,

1785
01:30:04,840 --> 01:30:06,920
Speaker 6: and I think it's illustrative for us to think about

1786
01:30:06,960 --> 01:30:09,640
Speaker 6: how he will engage with things that have changed. So

1787
01:30:10,320 --> 01:30:13,479
Speaker 6: what has changed. There's a much larger conflict between Russia

1788
01:30:13,520 --> 01:30:17,320
Speaker 6: and Ukraine now, and that conflict has been seen massive

1789
01:30:17,360 --> 01:30:19,720
Speaker 6: and overt support both from the USA and for the

1790
01:30:19,760 --> 01:30:23,080
Speaker 6: rest of NATO. There's been a revolution in Memma. I

1791
01:30:23,280 --> 01:30:24,840
Speaker 6: suppose he doesn't know that.

1792
01:30:25,280 --> 01:30:29,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really doubt maybe some of the like weird

1793
01:30:29,320 --> 01:30:33,960
Speaker 3: pro coup meaning from the right guard to him, Yeah, perhaps.

1794
01:30:33,520 --> 01:30:36,000
Speaker 6: Or like, I mean, the parallels between the COO and

1795
01:30:36,040 --> 01:30:40,479
Speaker 6: Memma and January sixth are pretty obvious, right, Okay, Look,

1796
01:30:40,520 --> 01:30:42,400
Speaker 6: if January sixth to the landing, it lived a lot

1797
01:30:42,439 --> 01:30:44,519
Speaker 6: like that, except that it was a military party, not

1798
01:30:44,800 --> 01:30:48,320
Speaker 6: just a political party. The Islamic State doesn't exist as

1799
01:30:48,479 --> 01:30:50,960
Speaker 6: a territory identity, but it very much does exist as

1800
01:30:51,040 --> 01:30:54,240
Speaker 6: a terrorist group, which continues to and has actually increased

1801
01:30:54,240 --> 01:30:58,799
Speaker 6: its activity this month with sleeper cells continued, suicide bombing

1802
01:30:58,840 --> 01:31:04,440
Speaker 6: has continued, and the SDF continue with their anti ISIS operations.

1803
01:31:04,960 --> 01:31:09,519
Speaker 6: Without US support, those would be harder. And so we

1804
01:31:09,600 --> 01:31:12,240
Speaker 6: have to ask, I guess on what Trump's going to

1805
01:31:12,280 --> 01:31:14,320
Speaker 6: do with these things? And I want to look at

1806
01:31:14,320 --> 01:31:18,040
Speaker 6: a few different issues and pick apart what Trump said

1807
01:31:18,080 --> 01:31:20,280
Speaker 6: on his campaign website, pick apart what he said on

1808
01:31:20,280 --> 01:31:23,480
Speaker 6: the campaign trail, and then look at who he's appointed

1809
01:31:23,479 --> 01:31:26,559
Speaker 6: so far. We're recording this on Tuesday to twelfth, so

1810
01:31:27,600 --> 01:31:29,680
Speaker 6: if someone gets appointed before you hear this, that's why

1811
01:31:29,720 --> 01:31:32,720
Speaker 6: we've missed them out. So I guess to start with

1812
01:31:32,760 --> 01:31:35,720
Speaker 6: Trump's foreign policy, we should talk about his number one

1813
01:31:35,800 --> 01:31:38,679
Speaker 6: like peer competitor, which is China in his eyes right,

1814
01:31:39,240 --> 01:31:42,439
Speaker 6: not a big China appreciator. So I looked at his

1815
01:31:42,439 --> 01:31:45,559
Speaker 6: campaign website for this, which really has some just incredible

1816
01:31:45,640 --> 01:31:48,639
Speaker 6: use of capital letters. He just fucking does what he wants.

1817
01:31:48,640 --> 01:31:52,200
Speaker 6: It's wild to see. So chiefly one of the things

1818
01:31:52,200 --> 01:31:53,800
Speaker 6: that he's been on about for a while now is

1819
01:31:53,880 --> 01:31:57,120
Speaker 6: tariffs on Chinese made goods, right, as means the feign policy.

1820
01:31:57,200 --> 01:31:59,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, we just we talked about this last episode.

1821
01:31:59,360 --> 01:32:02,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, you will have heard about tariffs at this point.

1822
01:32:02,720 --> 01:32:03,400
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1823
01:32:03,439 --> 01:32:06,719
Speaker 6: So as we've previously mentioned, right, he's talked about these tariffs.

1824
01:32:06,800 --> 01:32:08,720
Speaker 6: These tariffs would cost a lot of money, and they

1825
01:32:08,720 --> 01:32:11,639
Speaker 6: would increase the cost of you going shopping.

1826
01:32:11,840 --> 01:32:14,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they would probably destroy vast whilest of the

1827
01:32:14,640 --> 01:32:18,920
Speaker 3: global economy. Yes, both the Chinese and the American economy, Yes,

1828
01:32:19,200 --> 01:32:22,320
Speaker 3: sort of implode. And then all these countries in Africa

1829
01:32:22,600 --> 01:32:25,080
Speaker 3: and you know, me and lar for instance, exports a

1830
01:32:25,080 --> 01:32:27,760
Speaker 3: lot of these rare earth metals to China, right, and

1831
01:32:27,840 --> 01:32:30,559
Speaker 3: a lot of countries in Africa do too. Aside from

1832
01:32:30,600 --> 01:32:34,719
Speaker 3: the economic sort of aggression, it stands on, Taiwan is weird,

1833
01:32:35,120 --> 01:32:37,400
Speaker 3: which is normally where we would like expect to see

1834
01:32:37,400 --> 01:32:41,280
Speaker 3: the most like physical friction between US and China.

1835
01:32:41,400 --> 01:32:41,559
Speaker 4: Right.

1836
01:32:42,120 --> 01:32:45,360
Speaker 6: Mike Pompeo has pressed for the USA to formally recognize

1837
01:32:45,400 --> 01:32:49,320
Speaker 6: Taiwan before, which would be a step you know, there'd

1838
01:32:49,360 --> 01:32:51,840
Speaker 6: be a pretty big swing. Trump, on the other hand,

1839
01:32:52,320 --> 01:32:55,240
Speaker 6: seems to want Taiwan to pay the United States for

1840
01:32:55,479 --> 01:32:58,439
Speaker 6: being its ally right now, Yeah, then this is like

1841
01:32:58,479 --> 01:32:59,439
Speaker 6: one of his big.

1842
01:32:59,240 --> 01:33:01,320
Speaker 4: Sort of foreign poles super principles, is.

1843
01:33:01,320 --> 01:33:06,000
Speaker 3: Like trying to get people to pay him for stuff

1844
01:33:06,120 --> 01:33:08,240
Speaker 3: because that's sort of the only way his brain works.

1845
01:33:08,240 --> 01:33:10,720
Speaker 3: But I remember this was NATO a lot, whereas this

1846
01:33:10,720 --> 01:33:12,720
Speaker 3: whole line on NATO that like NATO should be like

1847
01:33:12,760 --> 01:33:15,280
Speaker 3: paying us because people like you're not spaying it off

1848
01:33:15,320 --> 01:33:17,400
Speaker 3: on defense, so we're like paying all the defense budgets.

1849
01:33:17,439 --> 01:33:19,720
Speaker 3: This is like one of his kind of Yeah, it's

1850
01:33:19,720 --> 01:33:22,759
Speaker 3: been his hobby horse. Yeah, like floats around at his brain,

1851
01:33:22,920 --> 01:33:27,120
Speaker 3: sort of colliding with its walls. Yeah, empty space. Yeah,

1852
01:33:27,160 --> 01:33:27,960
Speaker 3: like a pink bung ball.

1853
01:33:28,320 --> 01:33:31,599
Speaker 6: Ironically, like in the time that Trump's been out of

1854
01:33:31,600 --> 01:33:35,200
Speaker 6: of is Russian aggression has led NATO members to spend

1855
01:33:35,240 --> 01:33:38,360
Speaker 6: more on defense, yeah, rather than Donald Trump lambasting them.

1856
01:33:38,800 --> 01:33:41,120
Speaker 6: So one of his big things is that Taiwan should

1857
01:33:41,120 --> 01:33:44,439
Speaker 6: pay the United States. But it would seem very unlikely

1858
01:33:44,520 --> 01:33:47,360
Speaker 6: that he if he's not going to abandon Taiwan, I

1859
01:33:47,439 --> 01:33:49,360
Speaker 6: think because it gives him a place to grand stand

1860
01:33:49,439 --> 01:33:49,920
Speaker 6: on China.

1861
01:33:50,560 --> 01:33:52,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and also, like you know, I mean, one of

1862
01:33:52,240 --> 01:33:53,960
Speaker 3: the things about Trump is that one of the best

1863
01:33:54,000 --> 01:33:55,320
Speaker 3: ways to sort of influence him.

1864
01:33:55,400 --> 01:33:58,320
Speaker 4: Is just get a world leader in a room with

1865
01:33:58,439 --> 01:33:59,519
Speaker 4: him alone. Yes.

1866
01:34:00,600 --> 01:34:04,920
Speaker 3: Unfortunately, well fortunately for us, Trump does not speak Chinese

1867
01:34:05,120 --> 01:34:08,280
Speaker 3: and she doesn't seem to like him very much.

1868
01:34:08,600 --> 01:34:11,600
Speaker 6: So yeah, yes, we won't be here. We won't be

1869
01:34:11,680 --> 01:34:15,439
Speaker 6: joining the PSC anytime soon. China, along with Russia right

1870
01:34:15,560 --> 01:34:18,479
Speaker 6: to countries we've spoken about most of both make big

1871
01:34:18,479 --> 01:34:22,320
Speaker 6: plays in Africa. Russia has rebranded what was Wagner as

1872
01:34:22,320 --> 01:34:26,240
Speaker 6: the Africa Cores, and they're sort of providing support to

1873
01:34:26,320 --> 01:34:31,240
Speaker 6: regimes that lack enough legitimacy to exist otherwise. Yeah, they

1874
01:34:31,280 --> 01:34:35,200
Speaker 6: are like sort of classic mercenary shit, like it's your state,

1875
01:34:35,240 --> 01:34:37,200
Speaker 6: illegitimate and does it lack the capacity to do the

1876
01:34:37,280 --> 01:34:40,439
Speaker 6: violence it needs to maintain itself? Don't worry. Here are

1877
01:34:40,479 --> 01:34:42,600
Speaker 6: some heres, some psychopaths from Russia.

1878
01:34:42,680 --> 01:34:44,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, and there's just a lot of people, I think

1879
01:34:44,479 --> 01:34:48,360
Speaker 3: because like a lot of these sort of governments will

1880
01:34:48,600 --> 01:34:51,920
Speaker 3: kind of like do their like like put a red

1881
01:34:52,000 --> 01:34:54,559
Speaker 3: Bereton and start doing their anti imperial as cosplay and

1882
01:34:54,560 --> 01:34:57,479
Speaker 3: then you like read the like the fine print of

1883
01:34:57,520 --> 01:35:01,000
Speaker 3: the contracts they've signed with like Africa Korra, thing that

1884
01:35:01,160 --> 01:35:04,000
Speaker 3: like you expect to be spelled like Africa and Core

1885
01:35:04,120 --> 01:35:08,559
Speaker 3: with a K like Kalo rps like and it's like,

1886
01:35:08,600 --> 01:35:11,360
Speaker 3: oh okay, so, like they've signed away a bunch of

1887
01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:13,800
Speaker 3: the country's mineral rights and like they've signed away a

1888
01:35:13,800 --> 01:35:17,040
Speaker 3: bunch of these specific minds to these mercenary groups. It's like,

1889
01:35:17,040 --> 01:35:20,080
Speaker 3: oh okay, so this is like awesome. This is also

1890
01:35:20,160 --> 01:35:22,320
Speaker 3: just imperialism. It's just new management.

1891
01:35:22,600 --> 01:35:25,479
Speaker 6: Yeah exactly, Yeah, it's just different imperialism. And then China

1892
01:35:25,560 --> 01:35:29,000
Speaker 6: has big plays in Africa too, Like I've personally seen

1893
01:35:29,040 --> 01:35:31,679
Speaker 6: a lot of Chinese owned minds in Africa, Chinese roads

1894
01:35:31,680 --> 01:35:35,479
Speaker 6: in Africa. China does also like offer infrastructure. Chinese does

1895
01:35:35,520 --> 01:35:37,400
Speaker 6: a kind of quid pro quo. It doesn't come in

1896
01:35:37,560 --> 01:35:40,280
Speaker 6: like with the violence like Russia does. It comes in

1897
01:35:40,320 --> 01:35:42,240
Speaker 6: with that will build your hospital if we can have

1898
01:35:42,320 --> 01:35:46,400
Speaker 6: all your natural resources. US policy in Africa is pretty

1899
01:35:46,479 --> 01:35:49,919
Speaker 6: much to stop those two countries getting too much influence.

1900
01:35:50,479 --> 01:35:53,720
Speaker 6: The Biden administration is as many liberals are right, like,

1901
01:35:54,360 --> 01:35:56,120
Speaker 6: there's actually not that much difference between what Biden and

1902
01:35:56,160 --> 01:35:58,600
Speaker 6: Trump will do in Africa. The difference is Biden is

1903
01:35:58,600 --> 01:36:01,240
Speaker 6: smart enough not to say it. Trump's ability to do

1904
01:36:01,280 --> 01:36:03,280
Speaker 6: anything useful in Africa is going to be masked by

1905
01:36:03,280 --> 01:36:07,480
Speaker 6: his massive racism, Like when he says things like shitthhole countries,

1906
01:36:08,040 --> 01:36:10,200
Speaker 6: it becomes a lot harder for the US to do

1907
01:36:10,280 --> 01:36:13,840
Speaker 6: anything in Africa that isn't tinged by that, right, Like

1908
01:36:13,960 --> 01:36:18,360
Speaker 6: that doesn't make that sort of imperialist ambition more obvious.

1909
01:36:18,840 --> 01:36:21,760
Speaker 6: US politicians rarely talk about Africa, they rarely campaign on

1910
01:36:21,840 --> 01:36:24,439
Speaker 6: what they were going to do in Africa, and so

1911
01:36:25,320 --> 01:36:27,080
Speaker 6: pretty much the only things we're going to hear from

1912
01:36:27,120 --> 01:36:29,600
Speaker 6: Donal Trump at Africa, I would imagine, are going to

1913
01:36:29,680 --> 01:36:32,720
Speaker 6: be when he lets his racism out. Yeah, that will

1914
01:36:32,760 --> 01:36:35,800
Speaker 6: have results for like US credibility. Also, my guess is.

1915
01:36:35,760 --> 01:36:38,639
Speaker 3: We see intensifications of sort of US drone strikes, particularly

1916
01:36:38,640 --> 01:36:41,640
Speaker 3: in the Horn, and we see like like all of

1917
01:36:41,680 --> 01:36:44,400
Speaker 3: the stuff that Biden is doing, but worse and killing

1918
01:36:44,439 --> 01:36:45,320
Speaker 3: even more people.

1919
01:36:45,360 --> 01:36:48,760
Speaker 6: Somehow, Yeah, I would imagine that we will see these

1920
01:36:48,760 --> 01:36:52,800
Speaker 6: more aggressive throne strike especially against like Islamist groups in Africa.

1921
01:36:52,920 --> 01:36:55,439
Speaker 6: That US has special forces deployments in a few places

1922
01:36:55,439 --> 01:36:58,599
Speaker 6: in Africa, which will probably maintain I would imagine, Like,

1923
01:36:59,120 --> 01:37:02,360
Speaker 6: I don't think those are things that Trump would He

1924
01:37:02,400 --> 01:37:05,280
Speaker 6: wouldn't see any benefit from stopping them, I guess, And

1925
01:37:05,320 --> 01:37:07,360
Speaker 6: it may not even know about them. So yeah, I

1926
01:37:07,439 --> 01:37:11,320
Speaker 6: think we will see little change in Africa would be

1927
01:37:11,360 --> 01:37:12,600
Speaker 6: my guess.

1928
01:37:12,600 --> 01:37:13,559
Speaker 4: Mildly worse.

1929
01:37:14,280 --> 01:37:18,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, I talk of mildly worse. Mere The thing

1930
01:37:18,320 --> 01:37:20,840
Speaker 6: that makes these podcasts mildly worse is our obligation to

1931
01:37:20,840 --> 01:37:22,920
Speaker 6: pivot to advertisements, which we must do now.

1932
01:37:24,080 --> 01:37:26,800
Speaker 3: That was that was a great one, holding out on

1933
01:37:26,920 --> 01:37:29,599
Speaker 3: you for three years, the good ad pivots.

1934
01:37:29,840 --> 01:37:32,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, there it is. That's what we've got for you.

1935
01:37:43,000 --> 01:37:45,839
Speaker 6: All right, we're back. So I want to talk about Europe.

1936
01:37:46,560 --> 01:37:48,519
Speaker 6: As you've heard in the Tariff's episode, right, he wants

1937
01:37:48,560 --> 01:37:50,960
Speaker 6: to put tariffs on European goods. European Union is going

1938
01:37:51,000 --> 01:37:54,439
Speaker 6: to slap tariffs right back on American goods. That doesn't

1939
01:37:54,439 --> 01:37:57,840
Speaker 6: really help anyone. It will make exporting from the USA

1940
01:37:58,040 --> 01:38:00,920
Speaker 6: very very hard. One thing that the USA might stop

1941
01:38:00,920 --> 01:38:05,759
Speaker 6: exporting is weapons to Ukraine. It's a little unclear Trump

1942
01:38:06,200 --> 01:38:08,800
Speaker 6: he called Olensky the greatest salesman on Earth, but it

1943
01:38:08,880 --> 01:38:10,800
Speaker 6: was also claimed that he can personally end the war

1944
01:38:10,840 --> 01:38:13,439
Speaker 6: in twenty four hours. I don't think that means that

1945
01:38:13,439 --> 01:38:15,360
Speaker 6: he will be deploying himself to the down bas a

1946
01:38:16,439 --> 01:38:19,680
Speaker 6: like a gun dam, but he claimed he can do

1947
01:38:19,720 --> 01:38:24,040
Speaker 6: this with his negotiating skills, this seems unlikely. To put

1948
01:38:24,040 --> 01:38:26,519
Speaker 6: it mildly, I don't think that it would be possible

1949
01:38:26,560 --> 01:38:28,040
Speaker 6: to end this war in twenty four hours if both

1950
01:38:28,080 --> 01:38:32,479
Speaker 6: sides declared peace right now, getting communications to their frontline

1951
01:38:32,479 --> 01:38:34,760
Speaker 6: troops would be a challenge in twenty four hours in

1952
01:38:34,840 --> 01:38:39,840
Speaker 6: some places. Yeah. So the way I interpret this, and

1953
01:38:39,880 --> 01:38:43,080
Speaker 6: I may be wrong here, is that he is likely

1954
01:38:43,120 --> 01:38:46,000
Speaker 6: to leverage the support that the United States gives to

1955
01:38:46,160 --> 01:38:50,040
Speaker 6: Ukraine in order to force Zelensky into an unfavorable settlement,

1956
01:38:50,840 --> 01:38:54,080
Speaker 6: which would achieve his goal of a being able to

1957
01:38:54,080 --> 01:38:56,800
Speaker 6: say he stopped giving American money to Ukraine, which has

1958
01:38:56,840 --> 01:38:59,200
Speaker 6: been a big talking point for the Like every time

1959
01:38:59,600 --> 01:39:02,200
Speaker 6: you sat with the Western North Carolina right after the

1960
01:39:02,280 --> 01:39:05,519
Speaker 6: hurricane or these Republicans sort of talking points were like, oh, well,

1961
01:39:05,560 --> 01:39:08,240
Speaker 6: all the money is in Ukraine, so we can't have

1962
01:39:09,040 --> 01:39:12,799
Speaker 6: fucking MREs for people in Western North Carolina, Like FEMA

1963
01:39:12,880 --> 01:39:16,720
Speaker 6: has no money because we sent Ukraine some memphors. This

1964
01:39:16,760 --> 01:39:18,719
Speaker 6: is very silly, right, This is it's not a zero

1965
01:39:18,760 --> 01:39:22,040
Speaker 6: sum game. It's not really a reasonable critique, but it's

1966
01:39:22,080 --> 01:39:24,680
Speaker 6: one that Trump has kind of managed to stick in

1967
01:39:24,720 --> 01:39:28,160
Speaker 6: the culture was his base seems to see the money

1968
01:39:28,200 --> 01:39:31,080
Speaker 6: going to Ukraine is directly coming from things that would

1969
01:39:31,120 --> 01:39:34,120
Speaker 6: otherwise be going to them, which he would benefit from

1970
01:39:34,160 --> 01:39:36,120
Speaker 6: it if he could bring this war to a close,

1971
01:39:36,240 --> 01:39:40,959
Speaker 6: right jd Vance has mentioned a demilitarized zone in between

1972
01:39:41,479 --> 01:39:46,479
Speaker 6: Russia and Ukraine, which yeah, he's going to minister the

1973
01:39:46,520 --> 01:39:50,840
Speaker 6: DMZ like yeah, like this did we really want this?

1974
01:39:51,400 --> 01:39:52,680
Speaker 6: Are we going to have troops out like we do

1975
01:39:52,760 --> 01:39:55,200
Speaker 6: in South Korea? For you know when was a career

1976
01:39:55,240 --> 01:39:58,040
Speaker 6: around the nineteen fifty seventy years, right, And I don't

1977
01:39:58,080 --> 01:39:59,879
Speaker 6: think that's really really.

1978
01:39:59,720 --> 01:40:02,120
Speaker 3: What they The thing what DMC is no one actually

1979
01:40:02,200 --> 01:40:04,559
Speaker 3: likes them. No, this sucks, It sucks.

1980
01:40:04,640 --> 01:40:05,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're awful.

1981
01:40:05,479 --> 01:40:07,400
Speaker 6: It's just a bit of land that you can yeat

1982
01:40:07,479 --> 01:40:10,960
Speaker 6: weapons over each other. Like especially in link modern warfare,

1983
01:40:11,200 --> 01:40:14,160
Speaker 6: they're not that effective at stopping to be bull fighting. Right,

1984
01:40:14,360 --> 01:40:16,479
Speaker 6: But very funny that North's career will be two for

1985
01:40:16,560 --> 01:40:18,800
Speaker 6: two on DMZs in wars it has been involved with

1986
01:40:21,240 --> 01:40:25,960
Speaker 6: huge dubb for them. He essentially seems to be advocating

1987
01:40:26,000 --> 01:40:29,599
Speaker 6: for exactly the peace settlement that Putin has proposed and

1988
01:40:29,640 --> 01:40:33,240
Speaker 6: that has been rejected multiple times. Several sources I've seen

1989
01:40:33,320 --> 01:40:36,439
Speaker 6: suggest that Trump has spoken to Putin quite a few

1990
01:40:36,439 --> 01:40:40,559
Speaker 6: times since leaving office. This has planned for Ukraine certainly

1991
01:40:40,560 --> 01:40:43,360
Speaker 6: seems closer to the Russian one than the Ukrainian one,

1992
01:40:43,479 --> 01:40:47,240
Speaker 6: the Ukrainian one being stop invading us and go home,

1993
01:40:47,960 --> 01:40:50,080
Speaker 6: and the Russian one being, well, we'll just keep all

1994
01:40:50,080 --> 01:40:52,200
Speaker 6: the stuff we've taken so far and then add a

1995
01:40:52,200 --> 01:40:55,479
Speaker 6: buffer zone in between, and Ukraine can keep whatever's left

1996
01:40:55,520 --> 01:40:59,639
Speaker 6: of its country. Right. What's interesting to me is what

1997
01:40:59,800 --> 01:41:02,439
Speaker 6: other than NATO members will do in the event of

1998
01:41:02,520 --> 01:41:06,120
Speaker 6: the US reducing its AID. I would suspect that they

1999
01:41:06,120 --> 01:41:09,280
Speaker 6: will try and step up and meet that gap. It

2000
01:41:09,400 --> 01:41:13,040
Speaker 6: might also result in the US put certain restrictions on

2001
01:41:13,080 --> 01:41:13,439
Speaker 6: its AID.

2002
01:41:13,520 --> 01:41:15,120
Speaker 4: Right, how it can be used, where it can be

2003
01:41:15,200 --> 01:41:16,160
Speaker 4: used crucially.

2004
01:41:15,840 --> 01:41:19,680
Speaker 6: Right, they don't like Ukraine using things to attack in

2005
01:41:19,760 --> 01:41:22,679
Speaker 6: Russia proper. They don't mind am using them to attack

2006
01:41:22,760 --> 01:41:26,040
Speaker 6: Russian forces, but not within Russia. I did see a

2007
01:41:26,080 --> 01:41:29,920
Speaker 6: picture yesterday of a I think it was three guys

2008
01:41:29,920 --> 01:41:33,280
Speaker 6: from Rogue I think it's called, which is a unit

2009
01:41:33,320 --> 01:41:36,280
Speaker 6: within the International Legion who had been killed within Russia.

2010
01:41:36,280 --> 01:41:38,439
Speaker 6: And they had a lot of like eighty fours and

2011
01:41:38,479 --> 01:41:41,360
Speaker 6: things like that, right, like US anti tank weapons, but

2012
01:41:41,720 --> 01:41:44,760
Speaker 6: the United States doesn't want Ukraine using the long range

2013
01:41:44,840 --> 01:41:49,000
Speaker 6: artillery and stuff it's given it to yeat projectiles at Moscow.

2014
01:41:49,680 --> 01:41:52,320
Speaker 6: I can see a situation where if the US draws

2015
01:41:52,360 --> 01:41:57,680
Speaker 6: down some bit aid, European allies of Ukraine might not

2016
01:41:57,680 --> 01:42:00,439
Speaker 6: play some of those restrictions on their aid. That could

2017
01:42:00,479 --> 01:42:04,320
Speaker 6: lead to some interesting complications for Russia. Right if Ukraine

2018
01:42:04,479 --> 01:42:06,320
Speaker 6: is more effective, like if they get more aid from

2019
01:42:06,360 --> 01:42:08,360
Speaker 6: Europe and Europe doesn't place restrictions on the aid, they

2020
01:42:08,360 --> 01:42:11,680
Speaker 6: could potentially strike Russia within Russia, which is not going

2021
01:42:11,720 --> 01:42:13,479
Speaker 6: to be good for Putin and it's probably not going

2022
01:42:13,520 --> 01:42:16,400
Speaker 6: to be good for like bringing I mean, unless they

2023
01:42:16,400 --> 01:42:19,280
Speaker 6: can deal some really crippling blows. It might not be

2024
01:42:19,320 --> 01:42:21,280
Speaker 6: good for bringing the war to an end. But maybe

2025
01:42:21,280 --> 01:42:23,760
Speaker 6: it will. Maybe they've done some pretty effective things with

2026
01:42:23,920 --> 01:42:25,280
Speaker 6: not a huge amount so far.

2027
01:42:25,640 --> 01:42:27,519
Speaker 4: I don't know. Maybe they get lucky on a strike

2028
01:42:27,600 --> 01:42:28,759
Speaker 4: on the Kremlin or something.

2029
01:42:29,120 --> 01:42:32,679
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, just the one like I mean, yeah, I'm

2030
01:42:32,760 --> 01:42:34,800
Speaker 6: sure that would be their strategy if they wouldn't have

2031
01:42:35,320 --> 01:42:39,400
Speaker 6: they didn't have restrictions, would be to just keep pounding

2032
01:42:39,400 --> 01:42:40,680
Speaker 6: places they think Putin might be.

2033
01:42:40,920 --> 01:42:43,519
Speaker 3: This is the history of Russian warfare. Dumber things that

2034
01:42:43,840 --> 01:42:47,679
Speaker 3: have happened and have lost Russia wars. So yeah, yeah,

2035
01:42:47,760 --> 01:42:50,679
Speaker 3: a lot dumber than that. So yeah, I don't think

2036
01:42:50,760 --> 01:42:53,160
Speaker 3: that Ukraine will be screwed if the US pulls out.

2037
01:42:53,200 --> 01:42:55,080
Speaker 3: I do think it will be a lot harder for them.

2038
01:42:55,200 --> 01:42:57,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, And you know, if that's something, there are a

2039
01:42:57,840 --> 01:43:00,360
Speaker 6: lot of US sits and still fighting in Ukraine. Would

2040
01:43:00,400 --> 01:43:03,920
Speaker 6: be pretty devastating to abandon Ukraine. And I think also

2041
01:43:04,080 --> 01:43:09,120
Speaker 6: just from the sort of stopping Russian aggression standpoint, it's

2042
01:43:09,200 --> 01:43:11,720
Speaker 6: much better to stop it here than somewhere else. But yeah,

2043
01:43:11,800 --> 01:43:14,880
Speaker 6: we will see. I guess European countries are really ramping

2044
01:43:14,960 --> 01:43:18,519
Speaker 6: up their defense, but right now the US is like

2045
01:43:18,560 --> 01:43:21,920
Speaker 6: the heart of the military industrial complex and Europe really

2046
01:43:21,920 --> 01:43:25,120
Speaker 6: can't keep up with the US production. Of course, the

2047
01:43:25,200 --> 01:43:27,000
Speaker 6: US being the heart of the military industrial complex does

2048
01:43:27,080 --> 01:43:29,200
Speaker 6: mean that a lot of Trump donors will probably be

2049
01:43:29,240 --> 01:43:32,080
Speaker 6: able to leave ridge of their donations to his campaign,

2050
01:43:32,200 --> 01:43:34,080
Speaker 6: and so we might not see as much of a

2051
01:43:34,160 --> 01:43:37,479
Speaker 6: drawdown of Bay to Ukraine as we're worrying about here.

2052
01:43:38,640 --> 01:43:41,120
Speaker 6: May talking of launching things from a long distance at

2053
01:43:41,160 --> 01:43:43,040
Speaker 6: a very small target, I would like to launch these

2054
01:43:43,120 --> 01:43:49,120
Speaker 6: advertisements from iHeart mean the advertising department directly to your ears, Heiger.

2055
01:44:00,479 --> 01:44:01,439
Speaker 4: It's all so bad.

2056
01:44:02,280 --> 01:44:05,519
Speaker 3: As we were recording this, it's come out that the

2057
01:44:05,520 --> 01:44:08,400
Speaker 3: new Secretary of Defense is going to be Pete Hegseth,

2058
01:44:08,520 --> 01:44:10,679
Speaker 3: who's like a Fox News guy who doesn't believe germs

2059
01:44:10,680 --> 01:44:11,080
Speaker 3: are real.

2060
01:44:11,520 --> 01:44:14,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, this guy who has not washed his hands in

2061
01:44:14,320 --> 01:44:15,800
Speaker 6: ten years.

2062
01:44:15,840 --> 01:44:18,800
Speaker 4: Great. I mean at least he might die of COVID. Yeah.

2063
01:44:18,800 --> 01:44:21,840
Speaker 6: I was gonna say he made it. Wow. Sorry that

2064
01:44:21,840 --> 01:44:24,559
Speaker 6: that that hair is really something. Oh that's not good

2065
01:44:24,600 --> 01:44:27,160
Speaker 6: at all. Yeah.

2066
01:44:27,200 --> 01:44:33,040
Speaker 8: Wait what On June fourteenth, twenty fifteen, hag Seth accidentally

2067
01:44:33,120 --> 01:44:36,120
Speaker 8: hit a west poind juror with an act a live

2068
01:44:36,240 --> 01:44:41,040
Speaker 8: cube like, oh, I think it was incredible.

2069
01:44:43,120 --> 01:44:50,200
Speaker 6: Let's have that link pulled up. Alright, this video is unavailable,

2070
01:44:50,479 --> 01:44:53,200
Speaker 6: all right, No, we're finding this video that nothing disappears

2071
01:44:53,200 --> 01:45:06,920
Speaker 6: from the internet. All right, here we go. No, my god,

2072
01:45:08,920 --> 01:45:15,479
Speaker 6: this is just clown ship. Like I need to write. Listen,

2073
01:45:16,000 --> 01:45:18,360
Speaker 6: if you were hit in the dick and balls by

2074
01:45:18,400 --> 01:45:24,240
Speaker 6: an act thrown by future Defense secretary, please contact cool

2075
01:45:24,360 --> 01:45:34,000
Speaker 6: Zone Media. iHeartMedia dot com. I hope the VA is

2076
01:45:34,000 --> 01:45:35,440
Speaker 6: paying for this man's benefits.

2077
01:45:36,840 --> 01:45:40,240
Speaker 9: It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen someone do. Like,

2078
01:45:40,400 --> 01:45:44,280
Speaker 9: in the course of reporting for this show. Yeah, it's amazing,

2079
01:45:44,600 --> 01:45:49,639
Speaker 9: like very funny. Again, please contact us. I hope you're okay.

2080
01:45:50,479 --> 01:45:54,719
Speaker 9: Service related injury. Yeah, so that's that's peak.

2081
01:45:54,760 --> 01:45:59,920
Speaker 6: Hegg Seth, right, future sec def also former reservist who

2082
01:46:00,000 --> 01:46:02,760
Speaker 6: who deployed to Guantanamo as an Indiant try platoon leader

2083
01:46:02,760 --> 01:46:07,080
Speaker 6: at Guantanamo. I think he also deployed to Afghanistan in

2084
01:46:07,160 --> 01:46:09,600
Speaker 6: twenty twelve, and previously he'd also deployed to Iraq. He

2085
01:46:09,640 --> 01:46:12,320
Speaker 6: did voluntary two voluntary deployments or he's in two locations

2086
01:46:12,320 --> 01:46:15,559
Speaker 6: in IRAQII. So he's hit the greatest hits of US

2087
01:46:16,080 --> 01:46:18,719
Speaker 6: foreign policy in the last twenty years. I guess he's

2088
01:46:18,760 --> 01:46:20,719
Speaker 6: made his career as a Fox News pundit.

2089
01:46:21,040 --> 01:46:22,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's just like a right wing gooul.

2090
01:46:23,120 --> 01:46:26,200
Speaker 6: Yeah. I mean in the last Trump administration when he

2091
01:46:26,280 --> 01:46:31,400
Speaker 6: was punditing, he advised Trump had been considering pardoning several

2092
01:46:31,439 --> 01:46:35,080
Speaker 6: war criminals and did pardon several war criminals. Right, and

2093
01:46:35,120 --> 01:46:37,360
Speaker 6: Hexseth was one of the people who A he talked

2094
01:46:37,360 --> 01:46:39,400
Speaker 6: about on Fox News, well he was advising Trump to

2095
01:46:39,400 --> 01:46:41,280
Speaker 6: do it, and B he was advising Trump to do it.

2096
01:46:41,360 --> 01:46:42,000
Speaker 6: Jesus Christ.

2097
01:46:42,360 --> 01:46:44,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can read up about the Trump partons of

2098
01:46:44,640 --> 01:46:45,240
Speaker 4: war criminals.

2099
01:46:45,560 --> 01:46:47,920
Speaker 3: It's bad enough that a guy was getting turned in

2100
01:46:47,960 --> 01:46:50,639
Speaker 3: by his own Special Forces unit, Like do you know

2101
01:46:50,720 --> 01:46:51,280
Speaker 3: how bad?

2102
01:46:51,720 --> 01:46:52,960
Speaker 4: How like fucking hideous?

2103
01:46:52,960 --> 01:46:55,920
Speaker 3: The shit you have to do is for like for

2104
01:46:56,040 --> 01:46:58,960
Speaker 3: like your own guys in a special Forces unit to

2105
01:46:58,960 --> 01:47:00,000
Speaker 3: be like, holy.

2106
01:46:59,760 --> 01:47:03,320
Speaker 4: Shit, we have to stop this guy. Yeah, Like it's awful.

2107
01:47:03,680 --> 01:47:06,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean if you should look up Clint Laurance's

2108
01:47:06,120 --> 01:47:10,400
Speaker 6: stuff as well, like l O I NC if you're

2109
01:47:10,439 --> 01:47:13,320
Speaker 6: interested in this stuff. He was convicted I think of

2110
01:47:13,439 --> 01:47:16,120
Speaker 6: two murder accounts for ordering his soldiers to fire and

2111
01:47:16,200 --> 01:47:19,120
Speaker 6: unarmed people. And then yeah, the other one was a

2112
01:47:19,120 --> 01:47:22,840
Speaker 6: Green Beret named Matt Goltschin who was also charged with

2113
01:47:22,880 --> 01:47:25,559
Speaker 6: the murder of someone in Afghanistan, someone who had been

2114
01:47:25,800 --> 01:47:29,599
Speaker 6: making IDs. So like, I think we can see where

2115
01:47:29,600 --> 01:47:31,599
Speaker 6: this guy is going. We've just found this out as

2116
01:47:31,600 --> 01:47:35,600
Speaker 6: well as we're recording for context. Like that's quite troubling. Yeah.

2117
01:47:35,680 --> 01:47:38,760
Speaker 6: His other two foreign policy appointments that I've seen so

2118
01:47:38,920 --> 01:47:42,880
Speaker 6: far have been less so look, i'd say less so.

2119
01:47:43,200 --> 01:47:45,880
Speaker 6: Marco Rubio is a third right, Like, I think we

2120
01:47:45,920 --> 01:47:48,000
Speaker 6: all know that I share very little with Marco Rubio

2121
01:47:48,640 --> 01:47:52,280
Speaker 6: on Turkey and Rajaba. He is good. He is not

2122
01:47:52,360 --> 01:47:56,400
Speaker 6: a fan of Verta one. He's in contact with Googlanists.

2123
01:47:57,000 --> 01:47:59,360
Speaker 6: He kind of puts Turkey in the in the bricks

2124
01:47:59,400 --> 01:48:03,720
Speaker 6: box is a good yeah, which which leads us to

2125
01:48:03,880 --> 01:48:07,719
Speaker 6: the very funny idea of Marco Rubio ordering a drone

2126
01:48:07,720 --> 01:48:08,679
Speaker 6: strike on airicc Adams.

2127
01:48:08,720 --> 01:48:10,960
Speaker 3: I mean, well, here's the thing though, Good's dead now,

2128
01:48:11,320 --> 01:48:14,160
Speaker 3: so so like there's like a secession crisis of like

2129
01:48:14,160 --> 01:48:20,799
Speaker 3: who's gonna.

2130
01:48:14,640 --> 01:48:22,639
Speaker 6: Have the goodinist anti pope Mark Rubio. Yeah, that could

2131
01:48:22,680 --> 01:48:25,280
Speaker 6: be very good for Rajava at least right the big

2132
01:48:25,360 --> 01:48:30,960
Speaker 6: concern among those of us who carry deeply about Rajava

2133
01:48:31,160 --> 01:48:32,880
Speaker 6: has been that Trump will abandon them as he did

2134
01:48:32,960 --> 01:48:35,479
Speaker 6: in the past. Right, And so I guess we're looking

2135
01:48:35,479 --> 01:48:40,240
Speaker 6: for glimmers of hope. And I think Rubio kind of, oddly,

2136
01:48:40,479 --> 01:48:44,160
Speaker 6: weirdly was one. Compared to I was expecting more of

2137
01:48:44,200 --> 01:48:47,200
Speaker 6: the hegths, like Fox News commentator type people in foreign

2138
01:48:47,200 --> 01:48:51,320
Speaker 6: policy positions, because Trump fundamentally doesn't care about foreign policy,

2139
01:48:51,360 --> 01:48:53,519
Speaker 6: and like it's an area where he can kind of

2140
01:48:53,640 --> 01:48:57,280
Speaker 6: give something to those kind of like insane far right

2141
01:48:57,840 --> 01:49:01,760
Speaker 6: commentator types. He all also did appoint Mark Waltz. I

2142
01:49:01,760 --> 01:49:04,400
Speaker 6: think could be Wolls He's one of the first special

2143
01:49:04,600 --> 01:49:08,200
Speaker 6: Army special forces guys serving Congress, maybe the first as

2144
01:49:08,240 --> 01:49:10,559
Speaker 6: a national security advisor. Walls is a member of the

2145
01:49:10,600 --> 01:49:15,280
Speaker 6: Kurdish Caucus in Congress, so again positive for his JA there.

2146
01:49:15,800 --> 01:49:19,080
Speaker 6: Talking of Army special forces, there's one more insane Trump

2147
01:49:19,120 --> 01:49:22,479
Speaker 6: foreign policy proposal that I want to discuss, and that

2148
01:49:22,640 --> 01:49:29,080
Speaker 6: is his desire to use the United States Army in Mexico.

2149
01:49:29,600 --> 01:49:31,920
Speaker 6: I'm just going to read from his campaign website here.

2150
01:49:32,240 --> 01:49:35,479
Speaker 6: President Trump will take down the drug cartels just as

2151
01:49:35,479 --> 01:49:38,360
Speaker 6: he took down ISIS. He will impose a total naval

2152
01:49:38,360 --> 01:49:41,559
Speaker 6: embargo on cartels, order the Department of Defense to inflict

2153
01:49:41,600 --> 01:49:45,840
Speaker 6: maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations, and designate cartels

2154
01:49:45,840 --> 01:49:49,200
Speaker 6: as foreign terrorist organizations and choke off the access to

2155
01:49:49,200 --> 01:49:52,599
Speaker 6: the global financial system. President Trump will get the full

2156
01:49:52,600 --> 01:49:56,040
Speaker 6: cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels or else

2157
01:49:56,080 --> 01:49:59,200
Speaker 6: expose every bribe and kick back allows these criminal networks

2158
01:49:59,240 --> 01:50:02,479
Speaker 6: to preserve their rain. He will ask Congress to ensure

2159
01:50:02,520 --> 01:50:05,200
Speaker 6: that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the death penalty.

2160
01:50:05,960 --> 01:50:08,920
Speaker 6: There's a lot there. The way that Donald Trump helped

2161
01:50:09,120 --> 01:50:13,360
Speaker 6: defeat ISIS was exclusively by bombing things and with some

2162
01:50:13,479 --> 01:50:16,479
Speaker 6: small contributions from US grand troops, but we don't really

2163
01:50:16,520 --> 01:50:19,479
Speaker 6: have a partner force in Mexico like that, and I think,

2164
01:50:19,800 --> 01:50:22,600
Speaker 6: especially with the new administration in Mexico and especially with

2165
01:50:22,640 --> 01:50:27,679
Speaker 6: Trump proposing one hundred percent tariffs on Mexican goods, we're

2166
01:50:27,760 --> 01:50:33,200
Speaker 6: unlikely to find one. Which leaves the very strange kind

2167
01:50:33,200 --> 01:50:39,600
Speaker 6: of prospect of US troops carrying out like unapproved, undeconflicted

2168
01:50:39,640 --> 01:50:43,559
Speaker 6: hits on Mexican nationals in Mexico, which like it's an

2169
01:50:43,560 --> 01:50:44,080
Speaker 6: act of war.

2170
01:50:44,320 --> 01:50:45,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, you are.

2171
01:50:45,080 --> 01:50:47,479
Speaker 6: Invading Mexico, is what you're doing. I should point out

2172
01:50:47,520 --> 01:50:50,759
Speaker 6: that the Bortac under Biden did shoot one Mexican national

2173
01:50:51,520 --> 01:50:54,880
Speaker 6: this year, who was he was holding up migrants with

2174
01:50:54,920 --> 01:50:57,240
Speaker 6: a gun. He's rubbing with a gun. It wasn't It's

2175
01:50:57,240 --> 01:50:59,599
Speaker 6: a place where I've been dozens of times where they

2176
01:50:59,600 --> 01:51:02,120
Speaker 6: shot here and they didn't seem to be much fuffle

2177
01:51:02,160 --> 01:51:04,639
Speaker 6: about that. But that is not invading Mexico.

2178
01:51:05,240 --> 01:51:07,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, like if they're invading Mexico, like you knows, as

2179
01:51:08,000 --> 01:51:11,080
Speaker 3: close as American Mexican sort of security cooperation has been

2180
01:51:11,080 --> 01:51:15,360
Speaker 3: and as many people as that's killed from the Mexican side,

2181
01:51:15,439 --> 01:51:17,360
Speaker 3: like that's oh boy.

2182
01:51:17,640 --> 01:51:19,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, Like it remains to be seen how much of

2183
01:51:19,880 --> 01:51:22,720
Speaker 6: this actually happens. Right, Mexico has a new president, the

2184
01:51:22,840 --> 01:51:25,519
Speaker 6: United States has a new president. They're not exactly politically

2185
01:51:25,560 --> 01:51:27,040
Speaker 6: fellow travelers, I'll say that.

2186
01:51:27,520 --> 01:51:29,720
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, I will say, like Armlow and

2187
01:51:29,760 --> 01:51:33,160
Speaker 3: Trump got along like decently. Well, yeah, largely off of

2188
01:51:33,200 --> 01:51:35,880
Speaker 3: Omblows like anti immigrant policies, but I don't know if

2189
01:51:35,880 --> 01:51:37,959
Speaker 3: that's going to work with China bomb.

2190
01:51:38,040 --> 01:51:40,760
Speaker 6: Like and like in the final year of Armlow, like

2191
01:51:40,800 --> 01:51:43,719
Speaker 6: they definitely they did a lot to help Biden within

2192
01:51:44,320 --> 01:51:47,800
Speaker 6: effectively enforcing US border policy by deporting people's South people

2193
01:51:47,840 --> 01:51:49,559
Speaker 6: I spoke to me the Darien series have been sent

2194
01:51:49,560 --> 01:51:53,160
Speaker 6: so off again this week. But Biden's had actually some

2195
01:51:53,200 --> 01:51:57,840
Speaker 6: pretty high profile cartel arrests right within Cineloa cartel. He's

2196
01:51:57,920 --> 01:52:01,360
Speaker 6: destabilized that cartel, but has happened within the US. They

2197
01:52:01,680 --> 01:52:04,160
Speaker 6: didn't send teams into into Mexico, and the way that

2198
01:52:04,200 --> 01:52:07,920
Speaker 6: the US has traditionally got hold of cartel leaders before

2199
01:52:08,000 --> 01:52:09,800
Speaker 6: is going to be arrested in Mexico in cooperation with

2200
01:52:09,920 --> 01:52:13,599
Speaker 6: Mexican government forces, be they police or military, and then

2201
01:52:13,640 --> 01:52:16,759
Speaker 6: extraducted them to the US trial and that doesn't seem

2202
01:52:16,800 --> 01:52:20,280
Speaker 6: to be what Trump is proposing. But again, like the

2203
01:52:20,320 --> 01:52:23,599
Speaker 6: bombastic rhetoric and the reality are sometimes very different.

2204
01:52:24,080 --> 01:52:24,280
Speaker 4: Yeah.

2205
01:52:24,400 --> 01:52:27,240
Speaker 3: I have some vague memory that he, like last time,

2206
01:52:27,320 --> 01:52:30,479
Speaker 3: he wanted to like send Special Forces guys to do this,

2207
01:52:30,640 --> 01:52:32,519
Speaker 3: and his advisors were like, what the fuck are you

2208
01:52:32,560 --> 01:52:36,000
Speaker 3: talking about. We can't send Yeah, like people in New Mexico.

2209
01:52:36,400 --> 01:52:36,639
Speaker 4: Yeah.

2210
01:52:36,720 --> 01:52:40,960
Speaker 6: Look, just to be real, those organizations have reached inside

2211
01:52:41,000 --> 01:52:45,640
Speaker 6: the United States and that would be an extremely messy situation. Yeah,

2212
01:52:46,000 --> 01:52:49,240
Speaker 6: and like the way this would have to be done, right, Like,

2213
01:52:49,280 --> 01:52:51,000
Speaker 6: I don't think you can do this with drone strikes.

2214
01:52:51,080 --> 01:52:52,679
Speaker 6: That you have to do this with boots on the ground,

2215
01:52:52,720 --> 01:52:55,320
Speaker 6: and that's going to be contrary to what he's promised

2216
01:52:55,320 --> 01:52:57,280
Speaker 6: to do, which is not risk more US soldiers' lives.

2217
01:52:58,280 --> 01:53:00,439
Speaker 6: Who knows what this will actually look like.

2218
01:53:00,520 --> 01:53:02,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, my guess is you will find a way to

2219
01:53:02,479 --> 01:53:04,040
Speaker 3: get the maxim umousivilians killed.

2220
01:53:04,520 --> 01:53:08,040
Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, yeah, we would himself. Yeah, it's that's probably

2221
01:53:08,080 --> 01:53:09,120
Speaker 4: would be the result of this.

2222
01:53:09,800 --> 01:53:11,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly. And I think as you sort of wein

2223
01:53:12,000 --> 01:53:15,320
Speaker 6: this down, like civilian deaths are probably going to increase. Right,

2224
01:53:15,400 --> 01:53:18,240
Speaker 6: He's never shown himself to be unduly concerned about those things.

2225
01:53:18,439 --> 01:53:20,640
Speaker 6: He doesn't see that the problem. The second thing the

2226
01:53:20,760 --> 01:53:25,080
Speaker 6: US will lose is what Joseph Nay called soft power, right,

2227
01:53:25,200 --> 01:53:28,719
Speaker 6: which is like the power to influence people without projecting force,

2228
01:53:29,200 --> 01:53:32,240
Speaker 6: cultural power, cultural capitals. Body. You might have called it

2229
01:53:32,840 --> 01:53:35,720
Speaker 6: really getting heavy on the university shit at the back

2230
01:53:35,800 --> 01:53:39,240
Speaker 6: half of this episode. The US lost a lot of

2231
01:53:39,280 --> 01:53:41,160
Speaker 6: that in the first Trump term, right, and it will

2232
01:53:41,200 --> 01:53:43,320
Speaker 6: lose more of it in the second Trump term. Some

2233
01:53:43,360 --> 01:53:46,519
Speaker 6: of that is, you know, the the US maybe shouldn't

2234
01:53:46,520 --> 01:53:48,559
Speaker 6: be influencing, and the US has had some pretty malign

2235
01:53:48,680 --> 01:53:51,439
Speaker 6: influence around the world. You can listen to a song

2236
01:53:51,479 --> 01:53:54,479
Speaker 6: called Washington Bullet to learn more about it. But it

2237
01:53:54,520 --> 01:53:57,479
Speaker 6: will mean that, like there will be a space for

2238
01:53:57,600 --> 01:54:00,840
Speaker 6: other bad actors, right, Russia, China, You know that le

2239
01:54:00,920 --> 01:54:04,040
Speaker 6: Russia has not shown itself to be any more concerned

2240
01:54:04,040 --> 01:54:05,920
Speaker 6: with human rights, and probably less so than than the

2241
01:54:06,040 --> 01:54:09,439
Speaker 6: United States went in in and it's time in Syria, right,

2242
01:54:09,600 --> 01:54:12,240
Speaker 6: it's been an unmitigated disaster for the Syrian people. The

2243
01:54:12,320 --> 01:54:15,360
Speaker 6: Russian cooperation with your side regime. We do not need

2244
01:54:15,479 --> 01:54:18,839
Speaker 6: more of that around the world. The Wagners to Africa

2245
01:54:18,880 --> 01:54:23,000
Speaker 6: Core deployments in Africa have been horrific in terms of

2246
01:54:23,080 --> 01:54:26,080
Speaker 6: human rights, and this will open more spaces for that.

2247
01:54:26,600 --> 01:54:30,560
Speaker 6: So yeah, I mean it doesn't look great this secretive appointment.

2248
01:54:30,760 --> 01:54:33,920
Speaker 6: Maybe we'll learn more about that in the coming days,

2249
01:54:34,160 --> 01:54:37,560
Speaker 6: but that doesn't look great. There are some bright spots

2250
01:54:37,600 --> 01:54:40,400
Speaker 6: for a Java. I guess there's some glimmers of hope there,

2251
01:54:40,440 --> 01:54:43,880
Speaker 6: which is a nice thing. Trump's policy on Gaza fits

2252
01:54:43,920 --> 01:54:46,960
Speaker 6: with this general model of like he wants to end conflicts,

2253
01:54:47,000 --> 01:54:50,000
Speaker 6: and the way he sees of doing that is doing

2254
01:54:50,040 --> 01:54:54,600
Speaker 6: away with any restraint in terms of civilian casualties. And

2255
01:54:54,680 --> 01:54:57,040
Speaker 6: so the way that he went after isis was to

2256
01:54:57,080 --> 01:54:59,680
Speaker 6: just say bomb them all. I can see him doing

2257
01:54:59,720 --> 01:55:02,880
Speaker 6: the same thing in Gaza, right, just saying like he

2258
01:55:02,920 --> 01:55:04,280
Speaker 6: wants to claim that he bought an end to the

2259
01:55:04,320 --> 01:55:06,720
Speaker 6: war and he doesn't care how many bodies he's standing

2260
01:55:06,720 --> 01:55:09,520
Speaker 6: on when he says that. Yeah, same thing in Lebanon, obviously.

2261
01:55:09,920 --> 01:55:12,720
Speaker 6: So yeah, these are not great things. These are things

2262
01:55:12,760 --> 01:55:16,080
Speaker 6: that we will have to deal with for decades to come,

2263
01:55:16,280 --> 01:55:20,680
Speaker 6: whatever happens. And I guess the way that you can

2264
01:55:20,720 --> 01:55:22,520
Speaker 6: do something here like why a little glimmer of hope,

2265
01:55:22,520 --> 01:55:25,000
Speaker 6: It's like you can reach out to people all around

2266
01:55:25,000 --> 01:55:27,040
Speaker 6: the world and let them know that, like, even if

2267
01:55:27,040 --> 01:55:30,680
Speaker 6: America's foreign policy is shit, you're not. I have sat

2268
01:55:30,720 --> 01:55:33,400
Speaker 6: in ro Java and I have seen them taking the

2269
01:55:33,480 --> 01:55:36,280
Speaker 6: children to the hospitals, and I've watched the US soldiers

2270
01:55:36,280 --> 01:55:39,480
Speaker 6: sit in their bases and do nothing, and like it

2271
01:55:39,520 --> 01:55:42,320
Speaker 6: didn't help. Really I didn't. I wasn't able to do

2272
01:55:42,440 --> 01:55:45,200
Speaker 6: very much. I couldn't even give blood. But I was

2273
01:55:45,200 --> 01:55:47,200
Speaker 6: able to be there with them, and maybe they're meant something,

2274
01:55:47,280 --> 01:55:49,840
Speaker 6: and like you can, you can do little things to

2275
01:55:49,880 --> 01:55:52,520
Speaker 6: show your solidarity around the world because there won't be

2276
01:55:52,600 --> 01:55:54,160
Speaker 6: much of it coming from the government.

2277
01:56:12,960 --> 01:56:16,720
Speaker 7: What have y'all welcome to It already happened here because

2278
01:56:17,480 --> 01:56:20,840
Speaker 7: this was the goal of this show, was to tell

2279
01:56:20,920 --> 01:56:23,640
Speaker 7: you that things was probably going to happen here, and

2280
01:56:23,680 --> 01:56:24,240
Speaker 7: then it did.

2281
01:56:25,440 --> 01:56:27,760
Speaker 5: I am not one of the normal hosts, as you

2282
01:56:27,800 --> 01:56:28,280
Speaker 5: can tell.

2283
01:56:28,640 --> 01:56:31,840
Speaker 7: I am your your friendly cousin that shows up every

2284
01:56:31,880 --> 01:56:34,560
Speaker 7: once in a while during the holidays. And if your

2285
01:56:34,560 --> 01:56:37,400
Speaker 7: cousins are anything like my cousins, which means we're immediately

2286
01:56:37,440 --> 01:56:40,840
Speaker 7: going to get in trouble because parents are gonna blame

2287
01:56:40,880 --> 01:56:44,720
Speaker 7: you since I'm the cousin, because it's not my fault,

2288
01:56:45,000 --> 01:56:46,000
Speaker 7: because I'm the guest.

2289
01:56:46,320 --> 01:56:48,080
Speaker 5: Anyway, we want.

2290
01:56:47,920 --> 01:56:50,400
Speaker 7: To talk about some stuff that, like, in some senses,

2291
01:56:50,480 --> 01:56:53,960
Speaker 7: is a bit absurd to talk about, because like the

2292
01:56:54,000 --> 01:56:57,960
Speaker 7: American understanding of pan ethnic terms and demographics are.

2293
01:56:57,960 --> 01:57:00,680
Speaker 4: Just oh god, sir, yes, it.

2294
01:57:00,680 --> 01:57:01,440
Speaker 5: Just don't make sense.

2295
01:57:01,640 --> 01:57:05,400
Speaker 7: Like nobody in the group identifies as what the group

2296
01:57:05,520 --> 01:57:07,400
Speaker 7: is called, but that's still the group, right.

2297
01:57:07,840 --> 01:57:10,040
Speaker 5: I recommend a book called white Fish Don't Exist. It's

2298
01:57:10,040 --> 01:57:10,560
Speaker 5: a great book.

2299
01:57:10,880 --> 01:57:17,680
Speaker 7: I'm here with the brilliant, brilliant meta wong.

2300
01:57:17,720 --> 01:57:21,680
Speaker 4: What's up, miya, It's it's all happening. It's it's all

2301
01:57:21,680 --> 01:57:22,200
Speaker 4: happening here.

2302
01:57:22,320 --> 01:57:26,480
Speaker 3: It sucks, but at least I'm getting great interests, the

2303
01:57:26,560 --> 01:57:28,160
Speaker 3: best what I've ever gotten.

2304
01:57:28,280 --> 01:57:29,400
Speaker 5: Best best interest.

2305
01:57:29,400 --> 01:57:30,800
Speaker 7: That's what I come for, you know what I'm saying,

2306
01:57:30,840 --> 01:57:32,520
Speaker 7: Like I come for us to be able to have

2307
01:57:32,600 --> 01:57:35,800
Speaker 7: pancakes for breakfast, you know, because your cousin's here. You

2308
01:57:35,840 --> 01:57:37,160
Speaker 7: know what I'm saying, So you get to have like

2309
01:57:37,200 --> 01:57:40,600
Speaker 7: pancakes for breakfast, and you know, stand in your pajamas longer,

2310
01:57:40,720 --> 01:57:42,040
Speaker 7: like it's great when your cousins are here.

2311
01:57:42,840 --> 01:57:43,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, yea.

2312
01:57:44,280 --> 01:57:45,880
Speaker 5: Anyway, so let's do this.

2313
01:57:45,920 --> 01:57:48,360
Speaker 7: We want to talk about Well, the thing is, like

2314
01:57:49,600 --> 01:57:52,360
Speaker 7: I don't know if y'all have admitted. I admitted this

2315
01:57:52,440 --> 01:57:55,400
Speaker 7: on our show that like we kind of had to

2316
01:57:55,440 --> 01:57:59,480
Speaker 7: have all hands on deck discussion here as to like, Okay,

2317
01:57:59,520 --> 01:58:02,160
Speaker 7: let's get to our organized like, let's figure out what

2318
01:58:02,200 --> 01:58:06,720
Speaker 7: we're going to say as a network and kind of

2319
01:58:06,720 --> 01:58:09,560
Speaker 7: brainstorm things to talk about, because I'm pretty sure like

2320
01:58:10,160 --> 01:58:12,360
Speaker 7: a lot of us are still like wait, what the fuck?

2321
01:58:13,200 --> 01:58:18,360
Speaker 7: I'm sorry what like, you know, and us holding down

2322
01:58:18,680 --> 01:58:23,400
Speaker 7: the DEI section of cool Zoe, you know, we are

2323
01:58:23,600 --> 01:58:27,560
Speaker 7: the diversity, equity and inclusion over here. Figured you know,

2324
01:58:28,040 --> 01:58:30,760
Speaker 7: there were some things that were super shocking around some

2325
01:58:30,880 --> 01:58:33,560
Speaker 7: of the data that was coming back from the exit polls.

2326
01:58:33,640 --> 01:58:37,240
Speaker 7: As we thought about like okay, so who actually voted

2327
01:58:37,280 --> 01:58:38,000
Speaker 7: for who.

2328
01:58:38,040 --> 01:58:38,800
Speaker 5: And how much?

2329
01:58:39,040 --> 01:58:41,960
Speaker 7: And so we kind of wanted to talk about the

2330
01:58:42,520 --> 01:58:45,920
Speaker 7: Asian vote, right yep, which is again from the intro,

2331
01:58:46,160 --> 01:58:48,000
Speaker 7: it's an absurd category to.

2332
01:58:48,000 --> 01:58:52,120
Speaker 4: Say that, yeah, totally, Yeah.

2333
01:58:51,960 --> 01:58:55,600
Speaker 7: The Latino vote, which is also equally as absurd as

2334
01:58:55,600 --> 01:58:56,360
Speaker 7: a category.

2335
01:58:56,840 --> 01:58:57,920
Speaker 5: And yeah, just.

2336
01:58:57,880 --> 01:59:02,040
Speaker 7: Where some of the sort of marginalized groups, like some

2337
01:59:02,120 --> 01:59:04,760
Speaker 7: of the numbers that were in some way shocking. I

2338
01:59:04,800 --> 01:59:07,960
Speaker 7: will say, as far as holding down the black man section,

2339
01:59:08,120 --> 01:59:11,680
Speaker 7: I am very proud of us for eventually coming back home,

2340
01:59:12,120 --> 01:59:16,480
Speaker 7: right and voting in the upper eighty percent for the

2341
01:59:16,520 --> 01:59:20,280
Speaker 7: black woman, you know, which was encouraging. Now, granted our

2342
01:59:20,440 --> 01:59:27,000
Speaker 7: number of how many of us voted shrike immensely, you know,

2343
01:59:27,880 --> 01:59:30,320
Speaker 7: But either way, we just wanted to talk about those things.

2344
01:59:30,320 --> 01:59:32,280
Speaker 7: And I think one caveat for me, I would say,

2345
01:59:32,280 --> 01:59:34,280
Speaker 7: and then I'll turn it over. I think Mia, like

2346
01:59:34,480 --> 01:59:36,520
Speaker 7: you know, you can take it on from there. Is

2347
01:59:37,200 --> 01:59:40,000
Speaker 7: I am, in fact a black man, So I think

2348
01:59:40,160 --> 01:59:43,120
Speaker 7: I can speak from a certain level of experience. Obviously

2349
01:59:43,160 --> 01:59:46,000
Speaker 7: not the experience of every human, right, but I can

2350
01:59:46,000 --> 01:59:48,040
Speaker 7: speak from a certain level of experience. Now as we

2351
01:59:48,080 --> 01:59:51,720
Speaker 7: talk about the Latino vote, I am, in fact, news flash,

2352
01:59:51,760 --> 01:59:54,320
Speaker 7: not Latino. You know what I'm saying. My wife is

2353
01:59:54,720 --> 01:59:58,160
Speaker 7: from East LA. But obviously proximity is not the same

2354
01:59:58,520 --> 02:00:03,640
Speaker 7: as being a member of so keep that in mind

2355
02:00:03,760 --> 02:00:06,720
Speaker 7: as we discuss these things.

2356
02:00:07,200 --> 02:00:09,400
Speaker 5: So let me turn it over to turn it over

2357
02:00:09,440 --> 02:00:09,640
Speaker 5: to me.

2358
02:00:10,360 --> 02:00:13,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know this is one of these you're

2359
02:00:13,840 --> 02:00:17,040
Speaker 3: talking a bit about the sort of category and coherence here, right,

2360
02:00:17,080 --> 02:00:20,520
Speaker 3: And like one of the things about the way this

2361
02:00:20,600 --> 02:00:24,800
Speaker 3: is aggregated is that so Asian Americans as a whole

2362
02:00:25,320 --> 02:00:27,920
Speaker 3: went about five percent to the right in this election,

2363
02:00:28,920 --> 02:00:31,840
Speaker 3: but that doesn't capture what was going on, because every

2364
02:00:31,920 --> 02:00:33,880
Speaker 3: part of the demographics were just sort of flying in

2365
02:00:33,920 --> 02:00:39,200
Speaker 3: every direction, and unfortunately, most of the actual right wing

2366
02:00:39,320 --> 02:00:42,800
Speaker 3: pull was very specifically from my people, which is to say,

2367
02:00:42,880 --> 02:00:44,760
Speaker 3: Chinese Americans who went right.

2368
02:00:44,720 --> 02:00:46,400
Speaker 4: In staggering numbers.

2369
02:00:47,040 --> 02:00:51,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know, I'm not really surprised by because

2370
02:00:51,120 --> 02:00:54,920
Speaker 3: this has just been the way that sort of specifically

2371
02:00:55,040 --> 02:00:57,800
Speaker 3: Chinese American communities have been shifting for the past I

2372
02:00:57,800 --> 02:01:04,320
Speaker 3: mean really like eight years, but particularly intensifying since twenty twenty. Yeah.

2373
02:01:04,520 --> 02:01:08,320
Speaker 3: And so if you look at sort of where these

2374
02:01:08,360 --> 02:01:10,760
Speaker 3: things happened, the biggest ones were New York and LA,

2375
02:01:11,160 --> 02:01:14,480
Speaker 3: and you know, places like Seattle had some shifts, But

2376
02:01:14,560 --> 02:01:17,920
Speaker 3: I think New York in particular, UK and LA in

2377
02:01:17,960 --> 02:01:21,040
Speaker 3: particular are important for this because a huge part of

2378
02:01:21,080 --> 02:01:23,960
Speaker 3: the reason that this happened was the sort of crime

2379
02:01:24,000 --> 02:01:27,520
Speaker 3: panic stuff. Yeah, and the crime padic didn't one hundred

2380
02:01:27,560 --> 02:01:29,920
Speaker 3: percent start with Chinese Americans, but it's one of the

2381
02:01:29,960 --> 02:01:33,880
Speaker 3: earliest sort of incubators of this entire thing. So the

2382
02:01:33,920 --> 02:01:36,520
Speaker 3: sort of trajectory of this is that in twenty twenty

2383
02:01:36,600 --> 02:01:40,360
Speaker 3: you have this sort of like whole stop Asian hate campaign, right,

2384
02:01:40,560 --> 02:01:43,360
Speaker 3: and you know, yeah, you have all this race like

2385
02:01:43,400 --> 02:01:45,480
Speaker 3: sort of like racist like ascitement.

2386
02:01:45,080 --> 02:01:48,400
Speaker 4: Of violence, and you get sort of two responses to it.

2387
02:01:48,480 --> 02:01:48,720
Speaker 6: Right.

2388
02:01:48,760 --> 02:01:51,800
Speaker 3: There's the kind of like liberal ish response, which is

2389
02:01:51,800 --> 02:01:55,960
Speaker 3: stop Asian hate, but it's kind of vacuous and doesn't

2390
02:01:56,440 --> 02:02:00,760
Speaker 3: doesn't really have any political content at all. It's kind

2391
02:02:00,760 --> 02:02:03,560
Speaker 3: of vaguely anti Trump, but like there's not much there.

2392
02:02:03,880 --> 02:02:05,800
Speaker 3: And then there's the right ring response. And the right

2393
02:02:05,840 --> 02:02:08,959
Speaker 3: ring response is just okay, like there, we're just gonna blame.

2394
02:02:08,720 --> 02:02:09,440
Speaker 4: Black people for this.

2395
02:02:09,960 --> 02:02:13,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's like fucking horseshit. It's like, no, it

2396
02:02:13,840 --> 02:02:16,360
Speaker 3: was almost everyone which is getting killed by white people,

2397
02:02:16,360 --> 02:02:19,520
Speaker 3: because that's almost all the way racial violence works in

2398
02:02:19,520 --> 02:02:20,520
Speaker 3: this country, right.

2399
02:02:20,440 --> 02:02:21,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah.

2400
02:02:22,360 --> 02:02:26,080
Speaker 3: But unfortunately, you know, this was an area where the

2401
02:02:26,280 --> 02:02:31,720
Speaker 3: left kind of just did nothing. And if you look

2402
02:02:31,760 --> 02:02:33,680
Speaker 3: at left response, you know, there's there's there's some people

2403
02:02:33,680 --> 02:02:35,840
Speaker 3: who did stuff, right there is you know, like some

2404
02:02:35,880 --> 02:02:39,000
Speaker 3: sex worker orgs like Red Canary Song did some great work.

2405
02:02:39,320 --> 02:02:44,160
Speaker 3: But most of the rest of the American left saw

2406
02:02:44,280 --> 02:02:46,880
Speaker 3: this and was like, Okay, the thing that matters here,

2407
02:02:46,960 --> 02:02:48,840
Speaker 3: and the actual problem with anti Asian violence is that

2408
02:02:48,880 --> 02:02:51,960
Speaker 3: people are criticizing the Chinese government too much and that's

2409
02:02:51,960 --> 02:02:54,560
Speaker 3: what's causing this, and so we need to defend the CCP.

2410
02:02:55,800 --> 02:03:01,160
Speaker 3: And this is just politically, this is fucking radioactive to like, yeah,

2411
02:03:01,320 --> 02:03:05,840
Speaker 3: eighty ninety percent of like fucking Nasian Americans because like, yeah,

2412
02:03:05,920 --> 02:03:08,080
Speaker 3: there's a sort of sort of combinations of factors, right.

2413
02:03:08,160 --> 02:03:09,800
Speaker 3: You have on the one hand, us sort of immigrant

2414
02:03:09,800 --> 02:03:11,760
Speaker 3: communities where most of this shit doesn't work because you're

2415
02:03:11,800 --> 02:03:13,640
Speaker 3: dealing with people who were like, I don't know, we're

2416
02:03:13,640 --> 02:03:16,560
Speaker 3: fucking sterilized by the government because the CCP decided to

2417
02:03:16,760 --> 02:03:20,000
Speaker 3: like do Malthusian fucking population control.

2418
02:03:20,440 --> 02:03:22,640
Speaker 5: Have no love for the CCP none whatsoever.

2419
02:03:22,800 --> 02:03:24,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, right, and then this this is all this

2420
02:03:24,880 --> 02:03:26,480
Speaker 3: is too reductive, even with Cubans. But it's like this

2421
02:03:26,480 --> 02:03:27,960
Speaker 3: isn't something where you could just sort of brush this

2422
02:03:28,040 --> 02:03:29,960
Speaker 3: away with like, oh, all of these people were like

2423
02:03:30,000 --> 02:03:32,880
Speaker 3: reactionaries from Taiwan or something like that. It's like, no,

2424
02:03:32,960 --> 02:03:34,640
Speaker 3: like a lot of these people came here very recently,

2425
02:03:35,360 --> 02:03:38,040
Speaker 3: and there are you know, there are sort of Tibetan communities.

2426
02:03:38,080 --> 02:03:39,280
Speaker 4: There's people from Shingjen here.

2427
02:03:39,880 --> 02:03:41,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, and all of those people, like all of the

2428
02:03:41,880 --> 02:03:44,920
Speaker 3: sort of pro CCP shit is radioactive and that's what

2429
02:03:45,000 --> 02:03:46,880
Speaker 3: was coming out of the American left. And the same

2430
02:03:46,920 --> 02:03:48,480
Speaker 3: thing with like sort of with with the Hong Kong

2431
02:03:48,520 --> 02:03:51,520
Speaker 3: movement right where there was like, you know, there was

2432
02:03:51,560 --> 02:03:55,800
Speaker 3: this really broad consensus amongst sort of American social democracy.

2433
02:03:56,200 --> 02:03:58,120
Speaker 3: You know, you're sort of like people who were like

2434
02:03:58,160 --> 02:04:00,680
Speaker 3: marginally she left of Birnie right, that stuff was all

2435
02:04:00,720 --> 02:04:03,000
Speaker 3: CIA stuff and it was bad, and that you should

2436
02:04:03,000 --> 02:04:05,480
Speaker 3: support the CCP, you know. I mean there are some

2437
02:04:05,520 --> 02:04:08,240
Speaker 3: tenet organizers, you do good work. We've had on the show, right, like,

2438
02:04:08,280 --> 02:04:11,560
Speaker 3: there are there are people trying to organize the communities,

2439
02:04:11,560 --> 02:04:14,640
Speaker 3: but like the mainstream left was just like fuck it,

2440
02:04:14,680 --> 02:04:16,240
Speaker 3: we don't care, we don't give a shit about you.

2441
02:04:16,320 --> 02:04:18,720
Speaker 3: Like the important thing about you being killed is that

2442
02:04:18,760 --> 02:04:21,760
Speaker 3: we can defend this fucking state that we like. Yeah,

2443
02:04:22,000 --> 02:04:24,720
Speaker 3: And so what happened to the stop Asian hate thing

2444
02:04:25,080 --> 02:04:27,360
Speaker 3: is that it got folded into the crime panic because

2445
02:04:27,360 --> 02:04:29,880
Speaker 3: the product of this was both the sort of right

2446
02:04:29,920 --> 02:04:32,520
Speaker 3: wing we're going to give you anti black racism as

2447
02:04:32,560 --> 02:04:34,640
Speaker 3: you're like, this is this is going to be your

2448
02:04:34,640 --> 02:04:37,440
Speaker 3: solution quote unquote to this, yeah, and the sort of

2449
02:04:37,440 --> 02:04:40,360
Speaker 3: stop Asian hate, like mainstream sort of liberal thing both

2450
02:04:40,640 --> 02:04:43,880
Speaker 3: just fed directly into carcuralism. And you know, so you

2451
02:04:43,880 --> 02:04:46,160
Speaker 3: started like it turned into this rallying cry for like

2452
02:04:46,240 --> 02:04:50,360
Speaker 3: hate crime bills, and then like increasing police presences and

2453
02:04:50,400 --> 02:04:52,640
Speaker 3: you know, like the fucking cops were like all over

2454
02:04:52,640 --> 02:04:54,240
Speaker 3: the place of this shit was happening, and you know,

2455
02:04:54,280 --> 02:04:58,280
Speaker 3: didn't do anything because they're cops, right. Like all of

2456
02:04:58,320 --> 02:05:01,640
Speaker 3: this fed into it went sort of seamlessly into the

2457
02:05:01,640 --> 02:05:04,520
Speaker 3: crime panic, where you could just feed all of these

2458
02:05:04,560 --> 02:05:07,600
Speaker 3: people of the sort of memory of the fear and

2459
02:05:07,640 --> 02:05:10,000
Speaker 3: the anger over like Asian people getting killed, and you

2460
02:05:10,040 --> 02:05:11,640
Speaker 3: could just lump that in with crime.

2461
02:05:12,720 --> 02:05:14,560
Speaker 4: And then these communities also.

2462
02:05:14,640 --> 02:05:16,720
Speaker 3: And when I say these communities, it's it's kind of

2463
02:05:16,720 --> 02:05:22,080
Speaker 3: important here to do like class breakdowns here too, because

2464
02:05:22,080 --> 02:05:24,839
Speaker 3: the big part of what's happening here is an alignment

2465
02:05:24,840 --> 02:05:29,080
Speaker 3: that I think, like if the Republicans could be like

2466
02:05:29,560 --> 02:05:32,800
Speaker 3: fifteen percent less racist or figure out how to channel

2467
02:05:32,840 --> 02:05:35,520
Speaker 3: the racism against one target at a time, a lot

2468
02:05:35,520 --> 02:05:37,360
Speaker 3: of these people would have fucking fled right in the

2469
02:05:37,360 --> 02:05:37,880
Speaker 3: first place.

2470
02:05:37,920 --> 02:05:40,920
Speaker 5: Because yes, yes, so I was gonna say, yeah, yeah.

2471
02:05:40,760 --> 02:05:43,120
Speaker 3: It's like it's like rich people, professionals and like small

2472
02:05:43,160 --> 02:05:45,480
Speaker 3: business owners. It's like, well, yeah, of course those people

2473
02:05:45,520 --> 02:05:49,440
Speaker 3: are like unbelievably sort of turbo hardline reactionarias. It's like, yeah,

2474
02:05:49,760 --> 02:05:51,320
Speaker 3: those are the guys who are like shooting at people

2475
02:05:51,320 --> 02:05:53,520
Speaker 3: from the rooftops and fucking LA and ID two.

2476
02:05:53,840 --> 02:05:54,120
Speaker 5: Yeah.

2477
02:05:54,160 --> 02:05:56,560
Speaker 3: But these same people in China, like in Taiwan, in

2478
02:05:56,600 --> 02:05:58,520
Speaker 3: Hong Kong, like, these are people that if you were

2479
02:05:58,520 --> 02:06:00,320
Speaker 3: on the left you would just be fighting every day.

2480
02:06:00,680 --> 02:06:03,200
Speaker 3: But you know, they kind of had been lumped into

2481
02:06:03,200 --> 02:06:06,920
Speaker 3: the Democratic Party because of the just unbelievable racism from

2482
02:06:06,960 --> 02:06:10,120
Speaker 3: the Republicans, and now the sort of crime panic stuff

2483
02:06:10,240 --> 02:06:13,760
Speaker 3: has finally given them this thing where the Republican deal

2484
02:06:13,840 --> 02:06:16,160
Speaker 3: is basically like okay, if you're okay with sort of

2485
02:06:16,160 --> 02:06:18,920
Speaker 3: being anti black with us, if you're okay with massive

2486
02:06:18,960 --> 02:06:21,320
Speaker 3: expansions of police presence, you're okay with us running on

2487
02:06:21,760 --> 02:06:24,640
Speaker 3: that right and also on anti homeless politics. That's been

2488
02:06:24,640 --> 02:06:28,120
Speaker 3: a huge, extremely effective thing Chicili among business owners.

2489
02:06:28,120 --> 02:06:29,360
Speaker 4: And I remember, God, I think I've.

2490
02:06:29,240 --> 02:06:31,440
Speaker 3: Told the story on air, but back when I was

2491
02:06:31,440 --> 02:06:34,120
Speaker 3: in Chicago, there was this library in Chinatown that I

2492
02:06:34,200 --> 02:06:36,200
Speaker 3: used to like, you know, it was an extra a

2493
02:06:36,200 --> 02:06:37,560
Speaker 3: bunch of shops, and so you could sort of you

2494
02:06:37,560 --> 02:06:39,120
Speaker 3: could get bakery food and you could go sit at

2495
02:06:39,120 --> 02:06:42,000
Speaker 3: these benches, and I came back to them in twenty

2496
02:06:42,040 --> 02:06:45,040
Speaker 3: twenty and the benches literally had had a thing drilled

2497
02:06:45,040 --> 02:06:47,480
Speaker 3: into the table threatening to arrest you if you sat

2498
02:06:47,520 --> 02:06:49,760
Speaker 3: at them for too long a right, and this is

2499
02:06:49,800 --> 02:06:50,120
Speaker 3: this is.

2500
02:06:50,040 --> 02:06:51,480
Speaker 4: Like twenty twenty, twenty twenty one.

2501
02:06:51,640 --> 02:06:54,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know that the sort of anti homelessness

2502
02:06:54,440 --> 02:06:58,520
Speaker 3: stuff had started really really early there, and it's just hideous.

2503
02:06:58,680 --> 02:07:00,480
Speaker 3: And you know, these places of going to the right,

2504
02:07:00,520 --> 02:07:03,560
Speaker 3: they're electing Republicans and they're doing it because this kind

2505
02:07:03,560 --> 02:07:08,400
Speaker 3: of like Asian American petitqueourgeois like small business class and

2506
02:07:09,160 --> 02:07:11,440
Speaker 3: some of the sort of richer tech people, et cetera,

2507
02:07:11,480 --> 02:07:14,080
Speaker 3: et cetera, are swinging really really hard to the right.

2508
02:07:14,760 --> 02:07:15,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

2509
02:07:15,360 --> 02:07:18,600
Speaker 7: Man, that actually connected so many dots for me. Like,

2510
02:07:18,760 --> 02:07:20,920
Speaker 7: first of all, like even to like the anti homeless thing,

2511
02:07:21,000 --> 02:07:24,360
Speaker 7: like you know, you start seeing that weird middle of.

2512
02:07:24,280 --> 02:07:26,160
Speaker 5: The bench arm rail yep.

2513
02:07:26,360 --> 02:07:27,880
Speaker 7: You know, like, well it's like that's so you won't

2514
02:07:27,960 --> 02:07:30,320
Speaker 7: lay on it, you know, That's that's why you did this.

2515
02:07:30,440 --> 02:07:32,520
Speaker 7: But like I hope what I'm about to say is

2516
02:07:32,520 --> 02:07:34,040
Speaker 7: not a trope, you know what I'm saying. It's just

2517
02:07:34,120 --> 02:07:36,920
Speaker 7: it's because of like the proximity that I've had with

2518
02:07:36,960 --> 02:07:40,000
Speaker 7: the Asian community in the sense that my stepmom's Filipino.

2519
02:07:40,360 --> 02:07:42,400
Speaker 7: You know, all the DJs I've all worked with, all

2520
02:07:42,480 --> 02:07:44,640
Speaker 7: these just hip hop. At some point in the nineties,

2521
02:07:45,520 --> 02:07:48,360
Speaker 7: the Filipinos took over. Yeah, I'm saying, so like that's

2522
02:07:48,400 --> 02:07:51,040
Speaker 7: been a lot of ways our community. But I found that,

2523
02:07:51,760 --> 02:07:55,040
Speaker 7: you know, the like proper Asian in the jungle Asian

2524
02:07:55,080 --> 02:07:57,920
Speaker 7: thing where it's like pending on your relationship with the

2525
02:07:58,040 --> 02:08:02,000
Speaker 7: United States is almost even. And if you identify as Asient,

2526
02:08:02,120 --> 02:08:04,800
Speaker 7: because you sit down ten Filipinos, like half of them

2527
02:08:04,800 --> 02:08:07,040
Speaker 7: going to say a Pacific islander, you know, the other

2528
02:08:07,120 --> 02:08:08,720
Speaker 7: have gonna say to Asian. The other have is gonna

2529
02:08:08,720 --> 02:08:11,120
Speaker 7: say the Asian Pacific Islander. And then and then my

2530
02:08:11,240 --> 02:08:13,440
Speaker 7: lord Cambodia right next to them, who are all in

2531
02:08:13,520 --> 02:08:16,080
Speaker 7: Long Beach and their crips, you know what I'm saying.

2532
02:08:16,160 --> 02:08:17,839
Speaker 5: So like that sort.

2533
02:08:17,640 --> 02:08:21,040
Speaker 7: Of world like they were with us, you know, as

2534
02:08:21,040 --> 02:08:23,120
Speaker 7: far as like they were just a part of our community,

2535
02:08:23,600 --> 02:08:27,640
Speaker 7: whereas the sort of northern kind of proper Asian world,

2536
02:08:27,760 --> 02:08:30,480
Speaker 7: like it's cities is like Alhambra, Monti Roy Park, this

2537
02:08:30,480 --> 02:08:33,160
Speaker 7: is very California stuff. But they stuck to themselves, you know,

2538
02:08:33,320 --> 02:08:35,680
Speaker 7: and they they saw a lot of the American things

2539
02:08:35,800 --> 02:08:41,040
Speaker 7: like this is pragmatic, like we're here to win, like

2540
02:08:41,200 --> 02:08:44,560
Speaker 7: you know, like so when you started having the Asian

2541
02:08:44,600 --> 02:08:48,800
Speaker 7: hate thing, like it's almost like now that you say it,

2542
02:08:48,800 --> 02:08:51,960
Speaker 7: it's like we just tied that community up into a

2543
02:08:52,000 --> 02:08:54,880
Speaker 7: bow and then handed them to the right, because this

2544
02:08:55,000 --> 02:08:58,160
Speaker 7: all happened at the same time as like the the

2545
02:08:58,280 --> 02:09:00,560
Speaker 7: anti affirmative action you know.

2546
02:09:00,680 --> 02:09:02,959
Speaker 3: Although I do want to say in the anti affirmative

2547
02:09:02,960 --> 02:09:05,720
Speaker 3: action stuff, because I think people mischaracterize what's going on

2548
02:09:05,760 --> 02:09:08,640
Speaker 3: with that. Asian Americans as a whole and as subgroups

2549
02:09:08,680 --> 02:09:09,760
Speaker 3: support affirmative action.

2550
02:09:10,000 --> 02:09:11,320
Speaker 4: Yes, very consistently.

2551
02:09:11,560 --> 02:09:14,960
Speaker 3: Every time they're polls, there's like sixty percent support for it, right, yeah,

2552
02:09:15,160 --> 02:09:18,320
Speaker 3: but there's like forty percent of these fucking dipshits who

2553
02:09:18,360 --> 02:09:20,640
Speaker 3: are like, yes, I don't know, you know, I'm like

2554
02:09:20,640 --> 02:09:22,640
Speaker 3: my sort of like classic age response to this is

2555
02:09:22,680 --> 02:09:24,120
Speaker 3: like I fucking did it.

2556
02:09:24,160 --> 02:09:25,840
Speaker 4: I was a terrible student. I fuck I got into

2557
02:09:25,840 --> 02:09:26,720
Speaker 4: the University of Chicago.

2558
02:09:26,720 --> 02:09:28,600
Speaker 3: Like you didn't take a fucking study harder, Like you're

2559
02:09:28,640 --> 02:09:30,440
Speaker 3: you're not the reason the reason you're not getting into

2560
02:09:30,480 --> 02:09:33,600
Speaker 3: these universities isn't because like black people are being allowed

2561
02:09:33,600 --> 02:09:36,960
Speaker 3: in it's because you suck, like fucking skill issue.

2562
02:09:37,000 --> 02:09:38,240
Speaker 4: What the fuck is wrong with really?

2563
02:09:38,320 --> 02:09:40,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, but like like there's there was this like class yeah,

2564
02:09:40,840 --> 02:09:41,680
Speaker 3: you know the sort of class.

2565
02:09:41,680 --> 02:09:45,000
Speaker 7: And I was gonna get to is this class distinction

2566
02:09:45,240 --> 02:09:49,000
Speaker 7: in the sense that from a black perspective, it was like, Yo,

2567
02:09:49,120 --> 02:09:52,800
Speaker 7: we rallied for y'all over the like stop Asian hate thing,

2568
02:09:53,040 --> 02:09:55,040
Speaker 7: you know what I mean. And then to come back

2569
02:09:55,080 --> 02:09:58,920
Speaker 7: around and see this again from a class perspective because

2570
02:09:59,080 --> 02:10:01,280
Speaker 7: kind of the same thing. And in a lot of

2571
02:10:01,320 --> 02:10:04,320
Speaker 7: ways in the black community, because the reasoning, as you

2572
02:10:04,360 --> 02:10:05,800
Speaker 7: say that, that's why I say it all makes sense.

2573
02:10:05,840 --> 02:10:09,440
Speaker 7: The reasoning is the same, like the system is not

2574
02:10:09,640 --> 02:10:15,080
Speaker 7: for me, so I'm just gonna get mine, Damn the community,

2575
02:10:15,560 --> 02:10:17,320
Speaker 7: you know what I'm saying, Like, I'm just gonna go

2576
02:10:17,360 --> 02:10:20,320
Speaker 7: get mine, you know. And so in the again in

2577
02:10:20,360 --> 02:10:22,560
Speaker 7: the black community, for those that swung right, it was

2578
02:10:22,600 --> 02:10:25,960
Speaker 7: just like like in some senses, they're like, well, why no,

2579
02:10:26,040 --> 02:10:27,840
Speaker 7: y'all are fucking racists, like you know what I'm saying.

2580
02:10:27,840 --> 02:10:29,320
Speaker 7: So I'd like as far as like the rights, like

2581
02:10:29,360 --> 02:10:31,600
Speaker 7: I know you are with the left, it was more

2582
02:10:31,680 --> 02:10:35,080
Speaker 7: like you're just gaslighting me yea. So well, if you're

2583
02:10:35,120 --> 02:10:37,080
Speaker 7: just gonna gaslight me and I already know that you

2584
02:10:37,080 --> 02:10:38,959
Speaker 7: hate me, well fuck it, I'm just gonna get mine,

2585
02:10:39,080 --> 02:10:39,280
Speaker 7: you know.

2586
02:10:39,720 --> 02:10:40,880
Speaker 5: And that becomes the thing.

2587
02:10:41,000 --> 02:10:43,880
Speaker 7: But as a community, like you said, you know, in

2588
02:10:43,920 --> 02:10:45,760
Speaker 7: the same way as far as like the beef between

2589
02:10:45,840 --> 02:10:49,280
Speaker 7: like the you know, the historical la riots like Chinese

2590
02:10:49,280 --> 02:10:53,040
Speaker 7: and Korean communities. While their parents were on this on

2591
02:10:53,120 --> 02:10:55,320
Speaker 7: the roofs of their of their shops shooting at us,

2592
02:10:55,880 --> 02:10:58,440
Speaker 7: they kids was breaking into the city.

2593
02:10:58,440 --> 02:11:00,240
Speaker 5: They was with us like that, breaking it to the

2594
02:11:00,240 --> 02:11:00,720
Speaker 5: same story.

2595
02:11:00,760 --> 02:11:02,240
Speaker 4: We'll just break it into you know.

2596
02:11:02,400 --> 02:11:06,160
Speaker 7: So that that class distinction was something that made us

2597
02:11:06,240 --> 02:11:09,360
Speaker 7: kind of be like, bro, like, don't you understand You'll

2598
02:11:09,400 --> 02:11:12,840
Speaker 7: never be one of them, They'll never really love you, you know.

2599
02:11:13,240 --> 02:11:16,600
Speaker 7: And I feel like even that sort of like appeal

2600
02:11:18,040 --> 02:11:21,640
Speaker 7: would lurch this group even further to be like, don't

2601
02:11:21,640 --> 02:11:23,360
Speaker 7: tell me who you are, don't tell me where they're

2602
02:11:23,400 --> 02:11:25,800
Speaker 7: They're giving me what I need, you know. So yeah,

2603
02:11:25,920 --> 02:11:27,880
Speaker 7: like I never thought about tying all that together and

2604
02:11:27,920 --> 02:11:31,120
Speaker 7: being that it being like a specific a Chinese lurching.

2605
02:11:31,200 --> 02:11:32,120
Speaker 5: Wow. I never thought of that.

2606
02:11:32,760 --> 02:11:34,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, And okay, you know you know what else sells

2607
02:11:34,800 --> 02:11:36,480
Speaker 3: products that are from China.

2608
02:11:36,560 --> 02:11:40,480
Speaker 4: It's these products and services support the podcast.

2609
02:11:40,760 --> 02:11:49,000
Speaker 7: We sell products from China.

2610
02:11:54,040 --> 02:11:55,320
Speaker 4: And we're back.

2611
02:11:56,040 --> 02:11:57,760
Speaker 3: So I think that there's one more thing I want

2612
02:11:57,760 --> 02:12:00,200
Speaker 3: to make sure I get to about the Chinese American

2613
02:12:00,200 --> 02:12:02,480
Speaker 3: stuff before we move on. And that's one of the

2614
02:12:02,480 --> 02:12:05,080
Speaker 3: things you kind of brought up earlier, was the insolarity,

2615
02:12:05,720 --> 02:12:09,160
Speaker 3: because part of what's going on here too is that

2616
02:12:09,800 --> 02:12:12,920
Speaker 3: there's a lot of Chinese immigrants and people who you know,

2617
02:12:12,960 --> 02:12:16,080
Speaker 3: you get communities there speaking like they're uspeaking like Kenzanese

2618
02:12:16,120 --> 02:12:18,560
Speaker 3: or Mandarin, and in a lot of cases, it's like

2619
02:12:19,080 --> 02:12:22,600
Speaker 3: you'll get these very very small, tight knit communities with

2620
02:12:22,960 --> 02:12:26,760
Speaker 3: people who are speaking like the provincial dialect that's like

2621
02:12:27,280 --> 02:12:32,760
Speaker 3: semi incomprehensible to other people, right, because it's like effectively.

2622
02:12:32,320 --> 02:12:33,120
Speaker 4: Its own language.

2623
02:12:33,640 --> 02:12:35,640
Speaker 3: And one of the problems here, and this is one

2624
02:12:35,640 --> 02:12:37,400
Speaker 3: of the places where the left shit the bed like

2625
02:12:37,520 --> 02:12:41,680
Speaker 3: wasn't doing a good organizing, right, And the consequence of

2626
02:12:41,720 --> 02:12:43,280
Speaker 3: this is that in these a lot of the things

2627
02:12:43,280 --> 02:12:45,800
Speaker 3: that we're getting put out in these spaces, the media

2628
02:12:45,960 --> 02:12:50,600
Speaker 3: is all unbelievably right wing. Yeah, right, there's Miles Guah

2629
02:12:50,760 --> 02:12:55,240
Speaker 3: who whatever, God like twelve years from now, when I

2630
02:12:55,400 --> 02:12:57,240
Speaker 3: finished the lab Leak episode, which is gonna be He's

2631
02:12:57,280 --> 02:12:58,560
Speaker 3: gonna be a big part of this was he was

2632
02:12:58,560 --> 02:13:01,760
Speaker 3: this Chinese billionaire who defected to the US and came

2633
02:13:01,800 --> 02:13:04,560
Speaker 3: here and ran one trillion scams and is currently going

2634
02:13:04,640 --> 02:13:07,640
Speaker 3: to prison for Like, yeah, I'm pretty sure he was

2635
02:13:07,680 --> 02:13:09,760
Speaker 3: the guy who's boat Steve Bannon was on when Steve

2636
02:13:09,800 --> 02:13:11,920
Speaker 3: Bannon got arrested by the Post office cops.

2637
02:13:12,280 --> 02:13:14,840
Speaker 5: So like this varsity level bad guy.

2638
02:13:15,080 --> 02:13:17,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, he was here.

2639
02:13:17,200 --> 02:13:19,760
Speaker 3: He was issuing passports from like a fake government in

2640
02:13:19,800 --> 02:13:22,040
Speaker 3: exile that he set up. He's running every scam in

2641
02:13:22,080 --> 02:13:24,640
Speaker 3: the entire world. But he's also you know, he's also

2642
02:13:24,680 --> 02:13:26,320
Speaker 3: one of the people. He started the whole lab Leak

2643
02:13:26,800 --> 02:13:30,400
Speaker 3: thing and he so he was flooding the like all

2644
02:13:30,440 --> 02:13:33,960
Speaker 3: all the sort of traininge language media with this hardline

2645
02:13:34,080 --> 02:13:37,080
Speaker 3: right wing sort of pro Republican, hardline anti China stuff.

2646
02:13:37,120 --> 02:13:40,480
Speaker 3: And then you have a very similar thing coming from

2647
02:13:40,640 --> 02:13:45,440
Speaker 3: the Falling Gong, who are everywhere in any every China town,

2648
02:13:45,480 --> 02:13:49,120
Speaker 3: there's Fallen Gong guys everywhere. They're posters, there are people,

2649
02:13:49,320 --> 02:13:52,400
Speaker 3: so they are cult. They run shan Yu. They run

2650
02:13:52,440 --> 02:13:54,880
Speaker 3: a newspaper called The Epak Times, which is just a

2651
02:13:55,560 --> 02:14:00,640
Speaker 3: pure fascist propaganda outlet, and those things kind of just

2652
02:14:00,680 --> 02:14:04,080
Speaker 3: like devoured the entire Chinese language media ecosystem. And it

2653
02:14:04,120 --> 02:14:06,880
Speaker 3: wasn't good before because like there are also a bunch

2654
02:14:06,920 --> 02:14:09,640
Speaker 3: of other weird right wing groups. Like part of the

2655
02:14:09,640 --> 02:14:13,640
Speaker 3: problem here too is it's possible for in sort of

2656
02:14:13,680 --> 02:14:15,800
Speaker 3: Asian American community for you to have two people who,

2657
02:14:15,880 --> 02:14:20,200
Speaker 3: in by American standards, have identical politics, right, they're identically

2658
02:14:20,320 --> 02:14:23,560
Speaker 3: right wing on things like racial politics, and they're like

2659
02:14:23,800 --> 02:14:27,480
Speaker 3: edi crime stuff, you know, who are incredibly sexist and

2660
02:14:27,480 --> 02:14:29,680
Speaker 3: like humblophobic, but they absolutely fucking hate each other because

2661
02:14:29,720 --> 02:14:31,720
Speaker 3: one of them is a pro CCP Chinese nationalist and

2662
02:14:31,720 --> 02:14:33,600
Speaker 3: one of them is an anti CCP Chinese nationalists.

2663
02:14:33,640 --> 02:14:34,080
Speaker 4: Wow.

2664
02:14:34,280 --> 02:14:35,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.

2665
02:14:35,600 --> 02:14:38,560
Speaker 3: But this kind of like you know, what's been able

2666
02:14:38,560 --> 02:14:41,240
Speaker 3: to kind of weld that shit together is is this

2667
02:14:41,320 --> 02:14:44,560
Speaker 3: sort of like republican anti black off on crime campaign

2668
02:14:44,560 --> 02:14:47,160
Speaker 3: combined with all of this sort of media sphere stuff.

2669
02:14:47,720 --> 02:14:48,040
Speaker 5: Wow.

2670
02:14:48,440 --> 02:14:51,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, it's Shad's rebellion all over again.

2671
02:14:51,320 --> 02:14:54,440
Speaker 5: Like just that at least you're not them, yeah, you know.

2672
02:14:54,640 --> 02:14:58,160
Speaker 7: And and yeah, like the simplicity of that right wing

2673
02:14:58,200 --> 02:15:02,040
Speaker 7: message of just like here's all your problems all your problems.

2674
02:15:01,640 --> 02:15:03,360
Speaker 5: Are those fools, and I'll just get rid of them.

2675
02:15:03,440 --> 02:15:05,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, and we can solve this with more cops and

2676
02:15:05,520 --> 02:15:06,920
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. We just solved war.

2677
02:15:07,040 --> 02:15:08,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, man.

2678
02:15:09,080 --> 02:15:12,840
Speaker 7: So form my end, I looked at the black and

2679
02:15:12,920 --> 02:15:15,760
Speaker 7: Latino vote. I can run through the black one pretty

2680
02:15:15,840 --> 02:15:19,280
Speaker 7: quick because it wasn't as interesting of a story and

2681
02:15:19,440 --> 02:15:22,879
Speaker 7: also because you know, we did an episode with Garrison

2682
02:15:22,920 --> 02:15:27,080
Speaker 7: Hayes from Mother Jones on like black conservatives and Trump voters.

2683
02:15:27,080 --> 02:15:29,360
Speaker 7: And I think ultimately it comes down to the fact

2684
02:15:29,400 --> 02:15:33,080
Speaker 7: of like the frans fer anand thought of like, okay,

2685
02:15:33,120 --> 02:15:34,640
Speaker 7: what is what is liberation?

2686
02:15:34,840 --> 02:15:35,800
Speaker 5: Like what is freedom?

2687
02:15:35,960 --> 02:15:39,560
Speaker 7: And is it you know, my ability to flourish without

2688
02:15:39,600 --> 02:15:44,480
Speaker 7: any hindrances or is it a collective ending of suffering?

2689
02:15:44,480 --> 02:15:45,080
Speaker 5: You know what I'm saying.

2690
02:15:45,120 --> 02:15:48,520
Speaker 7: So like, in other words, it's like this, this plantation

2691
02:15:48,640 --> 02:15:51,800
Speaker 7: would be better if I ran the big house rather

2692
02:15:51,840 --> 02:15:54,720
Speaker 7: than being like, burn the fucking big house down because

2693
02:15:54,720 --> 02:15:57,040
Speaker 7: there shouldn't be slavery, you know I'm saying, So like

2694
02:15:57,480 --> 02:16:01,040
Speaker 7: that sort of approach to a gain and the reality

2695
02:16:01,120 --> 02:16:04,160
Speaker 7: of why know, the system's not for me in a

2696
02:16:04,160 --> 02:16:07,120
Speaker 7: lot of ways. That's what's interesting about the understanding of it.

2697
02:16:07,240 --> 02:16:09,080
Speaker 7: So when you would look at somebody like a black person,

2698
02:16:09,160 --> 02:16:10,920
Speaker 7: like why would you vote for this racist man? And

2699
02:16:10,920 --> 02:16:13,040
Speaker 7: it's like, well, the same reason I would vote for

2700
02:16:13,120 --> 02:16:15,360
Speaker 7: every other racist man, you know what I'm saying, Like, which,

2701
02:16:15,640 --> 02:16:18,560
Speaker 7: find me one that ain't you know, so, like that

2702
02:16:18,680 --> 02:16:22,040
Speaker 7: attitude is already there, so you know, obviously all of

2703
02:16:22,120 --> 02:16:24,920
Speaker 7: us would push back and say that, like, well, you

2704
02:16:25,080 --> 02:16:29,160
Speaker 7: choosing yourself is also a vote against yourself and is

2705
02:16:29,200 --> 02:16:33,360
Speaker 7: destroying your community. Clearly, it's never worked at some point,

2706
02:16:33,440 --> 02:16:35,920
Speaker 7: you know, which I'm sure y'all can relate to. It's

2707
02:16:35,959 --> 02:16:39,800
Speaker 7: like I feel two ways when I see like black people,

2708
02:16:39,879 --> 02:16:44,120
Speaker 7: specifically black men, sit at this table, because I'm like,

2709
02:16:44,640 --> 02:16:48,160
Speaker 7: I can imagine the first joke that you kind of

2710
02:16:48,200 --> 02:16:50,879
Speaker 7: let slide that was like, I was kind of weird,

2711
02:16:51,160 --> 02:16:53,960
Speaker 7: but I don't know, it's no big deal. I'll get

2712
02:16:53,959 --> 02:16:56,160
Speaker 7: over it. Maybe maybe they didn't mean it, you know.

2713
02:16:56,520 --> 02:16:58,720
Speaker 7: And then that joke gets more and more intense, and

2714
02:16:58,760 --> 02:17:01,080
Speaker 7: then all of a sudden, you sitting in a room

2715
02:17:01,640 --> 02:17:05,280
Speaker 7: and they cracking jokes about Haitians eating pets and that

2716
02:17:05,400 --> 02:17:07,120
Speaker 7: Puerto Rico's a track, you know what I'm saying. It's

2717
02:17:07,120 --> 02:17:10,279
Speaker 7: like it didn't start there. It started with you accepting

2718
02:17:11,080 --> 02:17:13,000
Speaker 7: and just being like all lighten up, and at some

2719
02:17:13,120 --> 02:17:15,959
Speaker 7: point somebody said something to you and you made a

2720
02:17:16,000 --> 02:17:19,600
Speaker 7: face and they went, dude, just it's a joke, man,

2721
02:17:19,640 --> 02:17:21,520
Speaker 7: it's a joke. Come on, bro, you know me, You

2722
02:17:21,600 --> 02:17:23,760
Speaker 7: know me, right, you've had that. You know what I'm saying,

2723
02:17:23,959 --> 02:17:25,840
Speaker 7: and I know that happened a year ago, and now

2724
02:17:25,879 --> 02:17:29,880
Speaker 7: look at you. You know, so like eventually, the point

2725
02:17:29,920 --> 02:17:32,880
Speaker 7: I'm making is like, at some point you are going

2726
02:17:32,920 --> 02:17:36,400
Speaker 7: to have to lay down all of your identifying factors

2727
02:17:36,400 --> 02:17:38,160
Speaker 7: to be able to stay at this table.

2728
02:17:38,480 --> 02:17:41,240
Speaker 5: And I hope that. I hope that thirty year fixed

2729
02:17:41,240 --> 02:17:42,040
Speaker 5: mortgage was worth it.

2730
02:17:42,760 --> 02:17:43,000
Speaker 6: You know.

2731
02:17:43,480 --> 02:17:46,400
Speaker 7: So the black story is that it's like, what is

2732
02:17:46,480 --> 02:17:51,560
Speaker 7: going to get us the financial or get me specifically

2733
02:17:52,520 --> 02:17:58,360
Speaker 7: minds the financial freedom that the Democrats kept promising but

2734
02:17:59,600 --> 02:18:01,840
Speaker 7: never get to us. But that's, like I said, that's

2735
02:18:01,879 --> 02:18:05,440
Speaker 7: a much less interesting story, in my opinion, than the

2736
02:18:05,560 --> 02:18:06,640
Speaker 7: Latino vote, which we.

2737
02:18:06,600 --> 02:18:08,520
Speaker 5: Could talk about after this break.

2738
02:18:20,200 --> 02:18:25,160
Speaker 7: All right, so we're back now, sixty four percent right

2739
02:18:25,400 --> 02:18:30,400
Speaker 7: of air quotes, Latinos voted right wing this year. Now

2740
02:18:30,959 --> 02:18:33,040
Speaker 7: I feel like this, well I don't feel like I

2741
02:18:33,080 --> 02:18:36,240
Speaker 7: know this needs a lot of unpacking, because first of all,

2742
02:18:36,280 --> 02:18:39,160
Speaker 7: what the hell is the Latino, right is the first

2743
02:18:39,240 --> 02:18:41,760
Speaker 7: question that you have to ask. And essentially I find

2744
02:18:41,760 --> 02:18:43,720
Speaker 7: I figure, I think I've come to the fact that

2745
02:18:43,760 --> 02:18:46,720
Speaker 7: what America means by that is you were colonized by Spain,

2746
02:18:47,320 --> 02:18:50,959
Speaker 7: so in some way you kind of speak somewhat Spanish,

2747
02:18:51,040 --> 02:18:53,959
Speaker 7: unless it's Brazil, in which case you were colonized by

2748
02:18:54,000 --> 02:18:56,440
Speaker 7: the Portuguese. Right, So it's like, you don't even know

2749
02:18:56,480 --> 02:18:58,320
Speaker 7: what you mean, Like y'all don't even know.

2750
02:18:58,280 --> 02:18:58,720
Speaker 4: What you mean.

2751
02:18:58,720 --> 02:19:01,000
Speaker 3: It's sort of it's agree that, like one of our

2752
02:19:01,040 --> 02:19:05,280
Speaker 3: primary demographic categories was invented by a coalition of like

2753
02:19:05,720 --> 02:19:10,680
Speaker 3: Maoists and like Vietnamese Merxist Leninist that fell apart immediately

2754
02:19:10,840 --> 02:19:13,440
Speaker 3: the moment that China invade Vietnam. And that's only our

2755
02:19:13,600 --> 02:19:16,760
Speaker 3: second most incoherent democratic category.

2756
02:19:17,640 --> 02:19:19,760
Speaker 5: It's completely incoherent.

2757
02:19:19,879 --> 02:19:23,600
Speaker 7: Right, So you have exactly you have my wife, my

2758
02:19:23,720 --> 02:19:28,040
Speaker 7: life partner, who is born in la but she is

2759
02:19:28,080 --> 02:19:30,320
Speaker 7: a first gen she grew up in southern Mexico.

2760
02:19:30,440 --> 02:19:31,920
Speaker 5: She is first gen Mexican.

2761
02:19:32,360 --> 02:19:37,160
Speaker 7: But she's like, I identify as indigenous and it's and

2762
02:19:37,200 --> 02:19:39,640
Speaker 7: it's true. She is like even when we did the

2763
02:19:39,720 --> 02:19:42,360
Speaker 7: DNA test, if you believe in that stuff. She's like,

2764
02:19:42,760 --> 02:19:44,240
Speaker 7: but you could just look at her and I'm like,

2765
02:19:45,280 --> 02:19:47,760
Speaker 7: you're incing, Like you know what I'm saying. Just I'm

2766
02:19:47,840 --> 02:19:50,119
Speaker 7: just you're looking at her, and she's like, yeah, you're right,

2767
02:19:50,200 --> 02:19:56,879
Speaker 7: Like we are overwhelmingly vast majority of her DNA is indigenous.

2768
02:19:57,080 --> 02:19:59,840
Speaker 7: So for her, if you check a demographic box, it's

2769
02:19:59,879 --> 02:20:02,920
Speaker 7: like are you Are you Hispanic? She's like, why would

2770
02:20:02,920 --> 02:20:06,480
Speaker 7: I identify with the colonizer? So no, I'm not Hispanic,

2771
02:20:06,680 --> 02:20:10,199
Speaker 7: Like they're the colonizer. Right. Whereas you ask a Puerto

2772
02:20:10,280 --> 02:20:14,200
Speaker 7: Rican or a Cuban or Dominican, they say Hispanic, but

2773
02:20:14,240 --> 02:20:18,120
Speaker 7: they just mean it differently. One because the island was

2774
02:20:18,160 --> 02:20:21,920
Speaker 7: called Hispanola, y I'm saying, so like they just mean

2775
02:20:21,959 --> 02:20:25,879
Speaker 7: something totally different. And Dominicans as black as hell, yo said,

2776
02:20:26,120 --> 02:20:28,600
Speaker 7: And then what about a Cuban. The way that they

2777
02:20:28,640 --> 02:20:32,160
Speaker 7: relate to America is also incredibly different, especially because of

2778
02:20:32,280 --> 02:20:34,840
Speaker 7: like you know, I'm pretty sure y'all y'all room knows,

2779
02:20:35,160 --> 02:20:37,760
Speaker 7: is if you could touch dry ground, right, And that

2780
02:20:37,879 --> 02:20:39,600
Speaker 7: really just had to do with the fact that we

2781
02:20:39,680 --> 02:20:42,480
Speaker 7: just ain't fuck with Castro. So the way that they

2782
02:20:42,560 --> 02:20:47,320
Speaker 7: relate to even immigration is completely different. Because if you

2783
02:20:47,360 --> 02:20:48,720
Speaker 7: could make it to the Soy, if you go back

2784
02:20:48,800 --> 02:20:51,320
Speaker 7: to Florida, you're a citizen. So they just didn't go

2785
02:20:51,400 --> 02:20:53,720
Speaker 7: through the same things that people from Central and South

2786
02:20:53,760 --> 02:20:56,800
Speaker 7: America went through to be able to become a citizen.

2787
02:20:56,879 --> 02:21:01,640
Speaker 7: And on top of all that, California, Arizona and Texas

2788
02:21:01,800 --> 02:21:05,360
Speaker 7: is Mexico. So like so some of them a and immigrants.

2789
02:21:05,520 --> 02:21:07,920
Speaker 7: They was here, like the border move we didn't cross

2790
02:21:07,920 --> 02:21:11,480
Speaker 7: the border, the border across US. So you put all

2791
02:21:11,520 --> 02:21:16,200
Speaker 7: that together mixed with a group of people who might

2792
02:21:16,280 --> 02:21:19,640
Speaker 7: be ninth generation Mexican that people that don't speak Spanish,

2793
02:21:19,680 --> 02:21:21,680
Speaker 7: they're no samples as you call it, like, well't even

2794
02:21:21,680 --> 02:21:24,879
Speaker 7: speak Spanish. You know what I'm saying that, Like you

2795
02:21:24,959 --> 02:21:28,560
Speaker 7: love all these people who speak so many different languages

2796
02:21:28,879 --> 02:21:31,800
Speaker 7: and have so many different understandings of who they are,

2797
02:21:32,879 --> 02:21:35,039
Speaker 7: and you just call them Latino and then you get

2798
02:21:35,040 --> 02:21:37,720
Speaker 7: this number. But if you're willing to accept the absurdity

2799
02:21:37,760 --> 02:21:41,000
Speaker 7: of it, then then we could talk about the actual

2800
02:21:41,120 --> 02:21:46,039
Speaker 7: Like what actually happened here and what you find are

2801
02:21:47,200 --> 02:21:51,640
Speaker 7: two things that are seem so reductive. But as you

2802
02:21:51,640 --> 02:21:54,160
Speaker 7: look at the exit polls and even like interviews that

2803
02:21:54,200 --> 02:21:57,960
Speaker 7: I that I personally conducted. If you set aside the

2804
02:21:57,959 --> 02:22:01,160
Speaker 7: person that has been just cooked by just the right

2805
02:22:01,200 --> 02:22:03,960
Speaker 7: wing information, like set that person aside, that is just

2806
02:22:04,120 --> 02:22:05,400
Speaker 7: you've just your brain's been cooked.

2807
02:22:05,520 --> 02:22:08,240
Speaker 5: Like you set that aside, and you look at this.

2808
02:22:08,440 --> 02:22:11,959
Speaker 7: There are two very reductive things that just continue to

2809
02:22:12,040 --> 02:22:16,360
Speaker 7: just be true. One is, Latin America is very religious.

2810
02:22:17,040 --> 02:22:20,720
Speaker 7: It's still Catholic, and machismo is a big part of

2811
02:22:20,760 --> 02:22:25,360
Speaker 7: their culture. And it just it seems so reductive, but

2812
02:22:25,520 --> 02:22:29,039
Speaker 7: it's but it's what happened. You know, this is still

2813
02:22:29,280 --> 02:22:34,840
Speaker 7: a very patriarchal culture. And you know, as anecdotal and

2814
02:22:34,879 --> 02:22:37,360
Speaker 7: as running joke as it is that like if you

2815
02:22:37,480 --> 02:22:42,320
Speaker 7: have a Latina daughter and she's bringing because again they're

2816
02:22:42,400 --> 02:22:45,360
Speaker 7: very traditional. That's why I'm saying I'm using cisgender things.

2817
02:22:45,360 --> 02:22:49,160
Speaker 7: It's like you bring a boy over your grandma, all

2818
02:22:49,200 --> 02:22:51,920
Speaker 7: your theas are watching you make him a plate. You

2819
02:22:52,080 --> 02:22:53,800
Speaker 7: have to go over there and make him a plate

2820
02:22:53,840 --> 02:22:55,840
Speaker 7: and sit it in front of him or you going

2821
02:22:55,920 --> 02:22:58,879
Speaker 7: to be judged. This is just the culture, you know,

2822
02:22:59,360 --> 02:23:02,879
Speaker 7: so it's no surprise that that is not going to

2823
02:23:03,120 --> 02:23:04,800
Speaker 7: play into how you vote.

2824
02:23:05,320 --> 02:23:05,520
Speaker 4: Right.

2825
02:23:06,000 --> 02:23:09,680
Speaker 7: And then secondly, the religious thing in the sense that

2826
02:23:09,840 --> 02:23:15,000
Speaker 7: like this actually like really blew my mind. And a

2827
02:23:15,000 --> 02:23:17,480
Speaker 7: couple interviews I had I wanted to talk to specifically

2828
02:23:18,400 --> 02:23:21,560
Speaker 7: Latina women, because I was like, it just seemed as

2829
02:23:21,560 --> 02:23:24,920
Speaker 7: though there was just a triple layer of shit you'd

2830
02:23:24,959 --> 02:23:28,920
Speaker 7: have to swallow to be able to go this route, right,

2831
02:23:29,520 --> 02:23:32,959
Speaker 7: And my main question was like, what was the non

2832
02:23:32,959 --> 02:23:40,480
Speaker 7: negotiable and was there a line that Trump and by extension,

2833
02:23:41,520 --> 02:23:45,080
Speaker 7: the Republican Party could cross, like's the where's the line?

2834
02:23:45,120 --> 02:23:47,240
Speaker 5: What is the too far line? Right?

2835
02:23:47,760 --> 02:23:51,360
Speaker 7: And they landed on a few things. It was crazy, like,

2836
02:23:51,400 --> 02:23:53,240
Speaker 7: after talking to three different women, they all kind of

2837
02:23:53,280 --> 02:23:54,360
Speaker 7: landed on the same things.

2838
02:23:54,760 --> 02:23:57,480
Speaker 5: It was abortion, right.

2839
02:23:57,560 --> 02:23:59,800
Speaker 7: They were like, at the end of the day, this

2840
02:23:59,879 --> 02:24:02,600
Speaker 7: is untenable, and to which I pushed back where I

2841
02:24:02,640 --> 02:24:06,240
Speaker 7: was like, well, Trump's not anti abortion. And what they

2842
02:24:06,280 --> 02:24:08,840
Speaker 7: all said was like, we could deal with the sixteen

2843
02:24:08,920 --> 02:24:12,279
Speaker 7: week like I could deal with the sixteen week thing, obviously,

2844
02:24:12,879 --> 02:24:15,920
Speaker 7: because again they are women and they're not completely pilled.

2845
02:24:16,160 --> 02:24:19,680
Speaker 7: They're like, we understand that there are situations that happened

2846
02:24:20,040 --> 02:24:24,000
Speaker 7: right that just are untenable.

2847
02:24:24,080 --> 02:24:26,720
Speaker 5: And then the next thing that they said was.

2848
02:24:26,640 --> 02:24:29,680
Speaker 7: Like, which was the part that like really just kept

2849
02:24:29,680 --> 02:24:33,600
Speaker 7: putting my brain in a pretzel, was we are really

2850
02:24:33,640 --> 02:24:39,320
Speaker 7: big on anti sex trafficking and the the idea for

2851
02:24:40,000 --> 02:24:42,720
Speaker 7: us on this knowing that like, okay, so the right

2852
02:24:42,720 --> 02:24:45,760
Speaker 7: wing stole that, like they don't believe it. They stole

2853
02:24:45,800 --> 02:24:48,760
Speaker 7: that concept and they wrapped everything around it, right. But

2854
02:24:49,480 --> 02:24:52,840
Speaker 7: one of them mentioned how she couldn't vote for Hillary

2855
02:24:53,240 --> 02:24:55,840
Speaker 7: because she heard rumors about child stuff, and she's I

2856
02:24:55,879 --> 02:24:57,360
Speaker 7: mean she's referring to pizzagate, you.

2857
02:24:57,360 --> 02:25:00,160
Speaker 4: Know, yeah, yeah, it's just cute shit.

2858
02:25:00,120 --> 02:25:01,760
Speaker 7: Of which I was able to push back to be like,

2859
02:25:01,800 --> 02:25:04,640
Speaker 7: well that was, you know, it was debunked, like, and

2860
02:25:04,680 --> 02:25:06,240
Speaker 7: she was like, I just don't want to I just

2861
02:25:06,280 --> 02:25:08,680
Speaker 7: don't like I just don't like how they move. I

2862
02:25:08,720 --> 02:25:12,199
Speaker 7: don't trust Bill and how he behaved in the Oval office.

2863
02:25:12,600 --> 02:25:14,680
Speaker 5: And it's like you're looking around, like are.

2864
02:25:14,560 --> 02:25:19,000
Speaker 4: You They were both of that played like I'm like.

2865
02:25:19,560 --> 02:25:21,360
Speaker 7: She even said she was like but the Epstein thing,

2866
02:25:21,760 --> 02:25:24,199
Speaker 7: and I'm like, well, they're all I don't.

2867
02:25:25,520 --> 02:25:26,879
Speaker 5: I don't understand.

2868
02:25:27,840 --> 02:25:30,640
Speaker 7: I don't understand how you don't see this connection, right,

2869
02:25:31,160 --> 02:25:33,960
Speaker 7: and to which they both said, oh, no, we see it.

2870
02:25:34,320 --> 02:25:35,000
Speaker 5: You're again.

2871
02:25:35,360 --> 02:25:38,640
Speaker 7: Find me someone that's not nasty, is their answer. Find

2872
02:25:38,640 --> 02:25:41,320
Speaker 7: me someone that's not corrupt, Find me someone that's not nasty.

2873
02:25:41,720 --> 02:25:44,920
Speaker 7: At least he's going to save the babies, was the thing.

2874
02:25:45,480 --> 02:25:49,200
Speaker 7: And then the next question I had about them was

2875
02:25:50,080 --> 02:25:53,920
Speaker 7: the anti immigration thing, the borders, right, and we're talking

2876
02:25:53,920 --> 02:25:57,320
Speaker 7: to people who are one in two, some of them

2877
02:25:57,360 --> 02:25:59,000
Speaker 7: three generations removed.

2878
02:25:59,120 --> 02:26:01,480
Speaker 5: And one of one of them gave me an example.

2879
02:26:01,160 --> 02:26:07,320
Speaker 7: Of a family members in law who got deported fifty

2880
02:26:07,400 --> 02:26:09,800
Speaker 7: years old, got deported from something they did when they

2881
02:26:09,800 --> 02:26:12,360
Speaker 7: were nineteen. It's like it's tough, like this was a

2882
02:26:12,440 --> 02:26:15,760
Speaker 7: hard working man who's done his best, who you know,

2883
02:26:15,840 --> 02:26:18,320
Speaker 7: has has done everything they could and it's got it.

2884
02:26:18,360 --> 02:26:20,600
Speaker 7: So I asked her, like, yo, do you think that

2885
02:26:21,080 --> 02:26:24,560
Speaker 7: so do you think that that's unfair? No, she was like,

2886
02:26:25,360 --> 02:26:28,480
Speaker 7: our family waited in line, Our family did everything they

2887
02:26:28,520 --> 02:26:31,640
Speaker 7: needed to do. We fought. We came to this same thing.

2888
02:26:31,800 --> 02:26:33,640
Speaker 7: We came to this country because we believed in the

2889
02:26:33,720 --> 02:26:35,920
Speaker 7: dream and we fought for it, you know, and we

2890
02:26:36,080 --> 02:26:38,600
Speaker 7: and we did it right, you know obviously like with

2891
02:26:38,720 --> 02:26:41,440
Speaker 7: the Mexican like sort of like work ethic of like

2892
02:26:41,800 --> 02:26:45,640
Speaker 7: no excuses, just work. We can't stand for no cheaters.

2893
02:26:45,800 --> 02:26:48,080
Speaker 7: We don't believe in stuff like that. You have to

2894
02:26:48,200 --> 02:26:51,360
Speaker 7: work for yours right, And we come here. There's no

2895
02:26:51,480 --> 02:26:53,920
Speaker 7: cuts in front of the lines. There's no shortcuts. You

2896
02:26:54,040 --> 02:26:56,800
Speaker 7: do the work right, and if you cheat, you go

2897
02:26:56,800 --> 02:26:57,760
Speaker 7: to the back of the line.

2898
02:26:57,879 --> 02:27:00,720
Speaker 5: That's just what it is. So she's like, like, he's

2899
02:27:00,760 --> 02:27:02,160
Speaker 5: talking about criminals.

2900
02:27:02,600 --> 02:27:05,440
Speaker 7: I'm not a criminal. He's talking about criminals. Yeah, you know,

2901
02:27:05,760 --> 02:27:09,240
Speaker 7: that's not me. I'm a hard working citizen, you know.

2902
02:27:09,800 --> 02:27:14,800
Speaker 7: So that sort of mindset, and then she said, at

2903
02:27:14,840 --> 02:27:15,840
Speaker 7: the end of the day.

2904
02:27:16,400 --> 02:27:20,280
Speaker 5: We came for the dream. I'm here to work, you know.

2905
02:27:20,600 --> 02:27:22,480
Speaker 7: And if I put in the work, if my family

2906
02:27:22,480 --> 02:27:26,280
Speaker 7: puts into work, we succeed. That's what this country's for.

2907
02:27:26,560 --> 02:27:29,119
Speaker 7: You're fucking it up for all of us. You cheating

2908
02:27:29,160 --> 02:27:31,119
Speaker 7: the system is fucking it up for all of us.

2909
02:27:31,360 --> 02:27:35,640
Speaker 7: And so that sort of like I can swallow the

2910
02:27:35,760 --> 02:27:38,760
Speaker 7: racist shit because I don't give a fuck about you anyway,

2911
02:27:38,920 --> 02:27:40,600
Speaker 7: because I already know you don't give a fuck about me.

2912
02:27:41,120 --> 02:27:43,840
Speaker 7: I'm just here to get mine. So for them, at

2913
02:27:43,879 --> 02:27:45,840
Speaker 7: least according to the way they're explaining it, is like

2914
02:27:46,480 --> 02:27:48,880
Speaker 7: the prejudice line is not a line they worried about.

2915
02:27:48,920 --> 02:27:51,480
Speaker 5: That's something I've already accepted, you know.

2916
02:27:52,080 --> 02:27:56,000
Speaker 7: But what is a line is oddly enough, treatment of

2917
02:27:56,000 --> 02:28:01,560
Speaker 7: women and the treatment of children and the ability to flourish.

2918
02:28:01,959 --> 02:28:04,039
Speaker 7: And then lastly for the men, it's what we know,

2919
02:28:04,320 --> 02:28:07,000
Speaker 7: like just the Mano spheares cooked our kids.

2920
02:28:07,440 --> 02:28:09,039
Speaker 5: It just cook them, you know.

2921
02:28:09,400 --> 02:28:15,320
Speaker 7: And it dovetailed so well into the Latino machismo and

2922
02:28:15,360 --> 02:28:18,240
Speaker 7: even on the black shit. Like I knew we were

2923
02:28:18,280 --> 02:28:22,280
Speaker 7: in trouble when the hood niggas was talking, was running

2924
02:28:22,280 --> 02:28:24,280
Speaker 7: around here saying they was gonna vote for Trump because

2925
02:28:24,280 --> 02:28:26,840
Speaker 7: it's because they understand it. It's like you either get

2926
02:28:26,840 --> 02:28:29,520
Speaker 7: on or get out. Like I'm here, I'm gonna get

2927
02:28:29,520 --> 02:28:31,080
Speaker 7: with my You either form me or against me.

2928
02:28:31,560 --> 02:28:33,600
Speaker 5: This is what we're doing. You know what I'm saying.

2929
02:28:34,000 --> 02:28:36,720
Speaker 7: Right, I'm gonna let you be you know, as as

2930
02:28:36,720 --> 02:28:38,840
Speaker 7: derogatory as this is, like, I'm gonna let you be

2931
02:28:38,879 --> 02:28:41,320
Speaker 7: a man. You go fight what you gonna fight. And

2932
02:28:41,360 --> 02:28:43,879
Speaker 7: the Democrats are gonna turn your sons and the daughters.

2933
02:28:44,160 --> 02:28:46,760
Speaker 7: I don't rob like that's the that's the thought.

2934
02:28:47,080 --> 02:28:49,119
Speaker 5: You know what I'm saying. It's like, okay, well well

2935
02:28:49,160 --> 02:28:51,000
Speaker 5: fuck it, let's just get ours. You know what I'm saying.

2936
02:28:51,400 --> 02:28:53,640
Speaker 5: That simplicity of a message.

2937
02:28:54,240 --> 02:28:57,959
Speaker 7: It just resonated while you have which didn't bother me,

2938
02:28:58,120 --> 02:29:00,760
Speaker 7: but you have somebody like Obama coming in there like

2939
02:29:00,800 --> 02:29:01,560
Speaker 7: somebody's uncle.

2940
02:29:02,120 --> 02:29:03,240
Speaker 5: Basically like you.

2941
02:29:03,040 --> 02:29:05,920
Speaker 7: Young niggas need to turn pull up your pants, stop

2942
02:29:05,959 --> 02:29:08,240
Speaker 7: acting like thugs, and get in line.

2943
02:29:08,280 --> 02:29:08,800
Speaker 4: You know what I'm saying.

2944
02:29:08,840 --> 02:29:10,800
Speaker 7: It's like, all right, okay, uh you know, to me,

2945
02:29:10,879 --> 02:29:12,440
Speaker 7: I don't bother me because I'm like, well, yeah, you're

2946
02:29:12,480 --> 02:29:14,480
Speaker 7: somebody's uncle, like you are that oh you of course

2947
02:29:14,520 --> 02:29:17,080
Speaker 7: that's how you talk, you know. But the street dudes,

2948
02:29:17,120 --> 02:29:18,920
Speaker 7: it's like, look, man, I don't need this, Like I

2949
02:29:18,920 --> 02:29:21,720
Speaker 7: don't need this Harvard grad like pretty ass like rich

2950
02:29:21,760 --> 02:29:24,080
Speaker 7: nigga to tell me what it's like. You was never

2951
02:29:24,120 --> 02:29:25,920
Speaker 7: out You weren't out here, you weren't in the trenches.

2952
02:29:26,440 --> 02:29:28,120
Speaker 7: You know what I'm saying. Like you're a millionaire. I

2953
02:29:28,120 --> 02:29:30,160
Speaker 7: don't like you. You barely want to oh because you

2954
02:29:30,160 --> 02:29:32,560
Speaker 7: can hoop? Oh so you like basketball? You one of us,

2955
02:29:32,560 --> 02:29:34,480
Speaker 7: you know what I'm saying. So I just think that

2956
02:29:34,480 --> 02:29:41,680
Speaker 7: that like you've already got yours, so let me get mine.

2957
02:29:42,680 --> 02:29:44,840
Speaker 7: Is like, at the end of the day, was so

2958
02:29:45,160 --> 02:29:49,160
Speaker 7: appealing to this particular demographic and it just made sense.

2959
02:29:49,480 --> 02:29:51,080
Speaker 5: So that's why they voted that way.

2960
02:29:51,520 --> 02:29:53,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think there's there's sort of like angles

2961
02:29:53,440 --> 02:29:55,160
Speaker 4: of this two that connect with what was going on

2962
02:29:55,280 --> 02:29:57,840
Speaker 4: with the Datian Americas, so partially also the religion angle

2963
02:29:57,959 --> 02:30:00,760
Speaker 4: is a thing that isn't talked about enough and also

2964
02:30:00,800 --> 02:30:04,359
Speaker 4: isn't talked about enough with Asian Americans, like particularly Chinese Americans.

2965
02:30:04,360 --> 02:30:09,280
Speaker 4: There's a whole bunch of how do I explain this

2966
02:30:09,320 --> 02:30:09,920
Speaker 4: in a way that.

2967
02:30:11,360 --> 02:30:13,600
Speaker 3: You know, the sort of like zeal of a convert shit,

2968
02:30:13,640 --> 02:30:17,720
Speaker 3: where like the first generation converts are the most nuts. Yeah,

2969
02:30:17,760 --> 02:30:21,640
Speaker 3: so that's like a huge portion of like Chinese Christians

2970
02:30:21,760 --> 02:30:25,080
Speaker 3: or these like first generation evangelical converts, and so you

2971
02:30:25,160 --> 02:30:29,600
Speaker 3: get these just like really terrifying, like ferociously right wing

2972
02:30:30,760 --> 02:30:33,800
Speaker 3: stuff that there's just kind of like just kind of

2973
02:30:33,879 --> 02:30:38,040
Speaker 3: eats everything around it. And I think the second part

2974
02:30:38,080 --> 02:30:40,240
Speaker 3: is I think it's an interesting distinction here too, because

2975
02:30:40,240 --> 02:30:44,000
Speaker 3: I think there's like a kind of differing parts of

2976
02:30:44,040 --> 02:30:47,120
Speaker 3: the storysness of the kind of like we came here

2977
02:30:47,120 --> 02:30:49,320
Speaker 3: to work thing, because that was the Asian American thing

2978
02:30:49,440 --> 02:30:53,400
Speaker 3: from maybe twenty years ago, and the last ten years

2979
02:30:53,480 --> 02:30:57,200
Speaker 3: and especially post twenty twenty has been people realizing that

2980
02:30:57,760 --> 02:31:00,560
Speaker 3: it's not real, yeah, and that you know, you work,

2981
02:31:00,560 --> 02:31:01,960
Speaker 3: you work, you work, you work, and this is this

2982
02:31:02,000 --> 02:31:04,879
Speaker 3: is actually also funny enough, exact same thing happening in

2983
02:31:05,000 --> 02:31:07,320
Speaker 3: China with sort of different political results because it's less

2984
02:31:07,320 --> 02:31:09,320
Speaker 3: it's you know, we're not dealing with yeah, like the

2985
02:31:09,360 --> 02:31:11,160
Speaker 3: same kind of sort of immigrant culture stuff. But the

2986
02:31:11,240 --> 02:31:13,760
Speaker 3: Chinese American version of this was like, Okay, we need

2987
02:31:13,760 --> 02:31:17,240
Speaker 3: to figure out who to blame for this, and they

2988
02:31:17,280 --> 02:31:19,200
Speaker 3: were like, well, yeah, okay, it's because of like all

2989
02:31:19,240 --> 02:31:21,560
Speaker 3: of this crime shit, because like people are going to

2990
02:31:21,600 --> 02:31:23,800
Speaker 3: prison for one million years, and like I see a

2991
02:31:23,800 --> 02:31:26,200
Speaker 3: black person and there's like a homeless person who I

2992
02:31:26,240 --> 02:31:28,959
Speaker 3: have to like walk past every day. This is the

2993
02:31:29,000 --> 02:31:33,120
Speaker 3: reason why like our fucking dream died. And that was

2994
02:31:33,160 --> 02:31:35,760
Speaker 3: a really sort of appealing message people. And it's the

2995
02:31:35,800 --> 02:31:38,320
Speaker 3: same kind of thing with the people who went for

2996
02:31:38,320 --> 02:31:40,440
Speaker 3: the affirmative action stuff, where it was like the people

2997
02:31:40,520 --> 02:31:43,680
Speaker 3: who you know are like in all seriousness, like we're

2998
02:31:43,720 --> 02:31:46,840
Speaker 3: running into kind of like oh no, there actually is

2999
02:31:46,879 --> 02:31:49,920
Speaker 3: a sort of wall that you hit, yeah, where it

3000
02:31:49,920 --> 02:31:52,200
Speaker 3: doesn't matter how hard you work, like there's only so

3001
02:31:52,240 --> 02:31:54,720
Speaker 3: many spots at the university, there's only so many totally,

3002
02:31:54,760 --> 02:31:56,600
Speaker 3: you know, there's only so much so far you can go,

3003
02:31:57,040 --> 02:32:01,080
Speaker 3: And hitting that wall drove a bunch of people you.

3004
02:32:01,040 --> 02:32:04,000
Speaker 7: Make a good point, you know, and and I imagine

3005
02:32:04,040 --> 02:32:07,480
Speaker 7: the same sort of reaction to that within the Chinese

3006
02:32:07,480 --> 02:32:10,200
Speaker 7: community is going to be the same with ours, where it's like, okay,

3007
02:32:10,879 --> 02:32:14,840
Speaker 7: you gon' learn that you are not welcome to that table.

3008
02:32:15,720 --> 02:32:20,039
Speaker 7: You know, they will always choose themselves. And you know,

3009
02:32:20,120 --> 02:32:22,680
Speaker 7: you could dress yourself up, you know, and just to

3010
02:32:22,760 --> 02:32:27,560
Speaker 7: the degree for which you can alter all identifying factors.

3011
02:32:27,959 --> 02:32:29,560
Speaker 7: For us, it's like to the degree for which you

3012
02:32:29,600 --> 02:32:32,520
Speaker 7: can remove your blackness is to the degree for which

3013
02:32:32,520 --> 02:32:34,879
Speaker 7: you're welcomed in this table. But at some point you

3014
02:32:34,920 --> 02:32:37,520
Speaker 7: can't take it off. It a'll rub off, you know,

3015
02:32:37,959 --> 02:32:38,960
Speaker 7: dress your kids up.

3016
02:32:39,000 --> 02:32:39,160
Speaker 5: You know.

3017
02:32:39,240 --> 02:32:42,280
Speaker 7: That was like for us with respectability politics, like teach

3018
02:32:42,280 --> 02:32:44,840
Speaker 7: your kids to speak proper English and dress them up

3019
02:32:44,840 --> 02:32:48,360
Speaker 7: and don't let them wear hoodies. Okay, good luck, you know,

3020
02:32:48,720 --> 02:32:53,080
Speaker 7: like jay Z's seminal work. Look, OJ said, I'm not black,

3021
02:32:53,120 --> 02:32:59,119
Speaker 7: I'm OJ okay, Like you know, it's just they will

3022
02:32:59,160 --> 02:33:01,800
Speaker 7: never accept you. The world you're trying to get into

3023
02:33:02,160 --> 02:33:05,560
Speaker 7: will never accept you. And this step towards trying to

3024
02:33:05,600 --> 02:33:09,039
Speaker 7: be accepted by this world is working against you and

3025
02:33:09,080 --> 02:33:10,400
Speaker 7: everyone else behind you.

3026
02:33:10,400 --> 02:33:13,760
Speaker 5: You know, But this is America. You can vote whatever

3027
02:33:13,800 --> 02:33:14,200
Speaker 5: you want to.

3028
02:33:14,160 --> 02:33:16,800
Speaker 3: Vote well, and I think twenty twenty eight, like for us,

3029
02:33:17,000 --> 02:33:19,440
Speaker 3: was that moment right where like, you know, everyone kind

3030
02:33:19,440 --> 02:33:21,160
Speaker 3: of got knocked out of the.

3031
02:33:21,959 --> 02:33:25,440
Speaker 4: You know, whichever way you sort of fragmented politically.

3032
02:33:25,480 --> 02:33:27,080
Speaker 3: It's like, that's when we got knocked out of the

3033
02:33:27,120 --> 02:33:30,120
Speaker 3: sort of obamam multiracial dream. Was when you realize that,

3034
02:33:30,200 --> 02:33:32,039
Speaker 3: like all of this fucking progress you've made isn't going

3035
02:33:32,080 --> 02:33:33,879
Speaker 3: to stop people from killing you in the street. Yes,

3036
02:33:34,040 --> 02:33:36,200
Speaker 3: And the reaction to that was like, and I saw

3037
02:33:36,200 --> 02:33:37,600
Speaker 3: this on the left where like a bunch of people

3038
02:33:37,959 --> 02:33:40,800
Speaker 3: basically splintered off and became like hardline Chinese nationalists because

3039
02:33:40,800 --> 02:33:43,280
Speaker 3: they were afraid, and they were like, Okay, well, you know,

3040
02:33:43,360 --> 02:33:45,720
Speaker 3: here's this thing that we have, this like strong state

3041
02:33:45,720 --> 02:33:47,120
Speaker 3: that will protect us, and we just have to fight

3042
02:33:47,160 --> 02:33:47,400
Speaker 3: for it.

3043
02:33:47,440 --> 02:33:49,840
Speaker 4: Here it's like, well that didn't work, right, you know.

3044
02:33:49,879 --> 02:33:51,440
Speaker 3: And then you have a lot of other people who

3045
02:33:52,600 --> 02:33:55,119
Speaker 3: started to recognize that this wasn't going to happen right,

3046
02:33:55,160 --> 02:33:58,680
Speaker 3: that like the thing that they had bought into was

3047
02:33:58,680 --> 02:34:01,320
Speaker 3: a lie. But the part of it that they believed

3048
02:34:01,760 --> 02:34:03,600
Speaker 3: they were just like, well, okay, if we can just

3049
02:34:03,680 --> 02:34:05,960
Speaker 3: like fucking get the black people out of here and

3050
02:34:06,120 --> 02:34:07,560
Speaker 3: like we can get the cops in yea, you know,

3051
02:34:07,600 --> 02:34:10,840
Speaker 3: we can go back to living in our fucking fantasy world. Yeah,

3052
02:34:10,840 --> 02:34:14,320
Speaker 3: And that's been just the sort of dominant response to it.

3053
02:34:14,360 --> 02:34:16,640
Speaker 3: And I don't know, it's bleak, but it's it's not

3054
02:34:16,680 --> 02:34:21,840
Speaker 3: something that can't be overcome, but it's gonna require like,

3055
02:34:22,240 --> 02:34:24,520
Speaker 3: it's going to require organizing, and it's going to require

3056
02:34:24,560 --> 02:34:29,200
Speaker 3: the left to not be about fucking making white people

3057
02:34:29,280 --> 02:34:32,640
Speaker 3: feel more anti imperialist, which has been what fucking politics

3058
02:34:32,720 --> 02:34:37,039
Speaker 3: ordizationan Americans has been. And until that shit at Shedison's like,

3059
02:34:37,640 --> 02:34:41,960
Speaker 3: you're gonna keep seeing this shit accelerate.

3060
02:34:42,320 --> 02:34:46,760
Speaker 7: Yeah, man, has there been any if the right term

3061
02:34:46,800 --> 02:34:50,320
Speaker 7: is like vision casting among this community, because like I

3062
02:34:50,360 --> 02:34:53,640
Speaker 7: say that to say, albeit a very small, very small

3063
02:34:53,720 --> 02:34:57,760
Speaker 7: fraction of voices, but among some of the black thinkers

3064
02:34:58,320 --> 02:35:04,320
Speaker 7: is like a serious consideration of pursuing like creating a

3065
02:35:04,320 --> 02:35:07,240
Speaker 7: third party of just like like but let's like take

3066
02:35:07,280 --> 02:35:10,400
Speaker 7: it serious this time, like for real, for real. Yeah,

3067
02:35:10,640 --> 02:35:12,400
Speaker 7: you know, like there's you know, it's, like I said,

3068
02:35:12,400 --> 02:35:16,320
Speaker 7: it's very small and like obviously, like my grandchildren will

3069
02:35:16,360 --> 02:35:19,760
Speaker 7: probably be the ones to see any sort of beginnings

3070
02:35:19,800 --> 02:35:22,879
Speaker 7: of that actually taking route but it's still like, you know,

3071
02:35:22,959 --> 02:35:25,160
Speaker 7: people are some of the things that are being talked

3072
02:35:25,160 --> 02:35:28,480
Speaker 7: about right now, like we should like really like really

3073
02:35:28,520 --> 02:35:29,760
Speaker 7: consider it.

3074
02:35:29,840 --> 02:35:30,960
Speaker 5: Is there anything like that going on?

3075
02:35:31,640 --> 02:35:33,280
Speaker 3: No, Like, and this is this social part of the

3076
02:35:33,280 --> 02:35:36,160
Speaker 3: problem is like the Asian American intellectual class is like

3077
02:35:36,720 --> 02:35:39,360
Speaker 3: one of the most bankrupt classes in the entire country.

3078
02:35:39,360 --> 02:35:40,080
Speaker 6: There's nothing.

3079
02:35:40,160 --> 02:35:45,879
Speaker 3: It's a wasteland out there. Like it's oh my god, yeah,

3080
02:35:45,920 --> 02:35:48,800
Speaker 3: like it's it's so bad. It's it's like all of

3081
02:35:48,800 --> 02:35:50,360
Speaker 3: the art in the media, the culture and the sort

3082
02:35:50,360 --> 02:35:53,120
Speaker 3: of analysis is all I've talked about in this show

3083
02:35:53,120 --> 02:35:55,000
Speaker 3: a decent amount, but it's all wrapped up in this

3084
02:35:55,040 --> 02:35:57,160
Speaker 3: sort of like oh, you two can like integrate and

3085
02:35:57,160 --> 02:35:59,360
Speaker 3: become a small business owner. And those people, you know,

3086
02:35:59,400 --> 02:36:01,280
Speaker 3: the people who leave that and people who did that,

3087
02:36:01,480 --> 02:36:04,400
Speaker 3: don't actually have any interesting ideas. Yeah they have. They

3088
02:36:04,400 --> 02:36:07,120
Speaker 3: have the incredibly narrow ideas of their class. The incredible

3089
02:36:07,200 --> 02:36:09,800
Speaker 3: narrow idea, incredibly narrow ideas of their class are completely

3090
02:36:09,920 --> 02:36:12,960
Speaker 3: useless for the sort of task we have ahead of us. Yeah,

3091
02:36:13,040 --> 02:36:15,320
Speaker 3: And and it's kind of working for them, yeah, I

3092
02:36:15,320 --> 02:36:17,600
Speaker 3: mean it's working for them, it's just it isn't working

3093
02:36:17,600 --> 02:36:18,119
Speaker 3: for anyone else.

3094
02:36:18,280 --> 02:36:18,680
Speaker 5: Exactly.

3095
02:36:18,879 --> 02:36:20,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like God, like I don't know, like the

3096
02:36:20,720 --> 02:36:23,000
Speaker 3: people who are supposed to be like Wesley Yang, who

3097
02:36:23,040 --> 02:36:25,400
Speaker 3: was supposed to be like the great sort of like

3098
02:36:26,120 --> 02:36:29,119
Speaker 3: new Asian intellectual is now this just completely cooked, right

3099
02:36:29,160 --> 02:36:32,600
Speaker 3: winger Like some of some of the people have been

3100
02:36:32,640 --> 02:36:35,119
Speaker 3: like turning on like some of the like the big

3101
02:36:35,120 --> 02:36:37,240
Speaker 3: podcasters have been like turning on trans people, and I'm

3102
02:36:37,280 --> 02:36:41,160
Speaker 3: just like, well, fuck all you guys eat shit basically,

3103
02:36:41,440 --> 02:36:43,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's the situation's bad.

3104
02:36:43,800 --> 02:36:50,320
Speaker 4: It's also the fragmentation is so powerful because you're dealing

3105
02:36:50,360 --> 02:36:53,200
Speaker 4: with so many kinds of like linguistic lions and lines

3106
02:36:53,240 --> 02:36:56,360
Speaker 4: between people who've been here for ten generations and people

3107
02:36:56,360 --> 02:36:59,400
Speaker 4: who just like walk off the boat yesterday. There's you know,

3108
02:36:59,440 --> 02:37:02,720
Speaker 4: and so the fragmentation I think helps prevent a more

3109
02:37:02,720 --> 02:37:05,800
Speaker 4: coherent sphere. But like it's it's bleak out there.

3110
02:37:06,040 --> 02:37:10,039
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, you know.

3111
02:37:10,720 --> 02:37:15,480
Speaker 7: Obviously, like the black queer community is obviously incredibly vibrant

3112
02:37:15,680 --> 02:37:20,720
Speaker 7: and strong and organized, and you know, at least from

3113
02:37:20,720 --> 02:37:22,800
Speaker 7: the part of the intersection that I'm a part of,

3114
02:37:23,000 --> 02:37:26,160
Speaker 7: you know, the voice coming out of that that space

3115
02:37:26,400 --> 02:37:28,760
Speaker 7: of like a lot of times of like very much

3116
02:37:28,800 --> 02:37:31,760
Speaker 7: prophetic and like you know, very much like truth telling

3117
02:37:31,840 --> 02:37:34,720
Speaker 7: that you hear from again, Like, you know, black queer

3118
02:37:34,720 --> 02:37:37,200
Speaker 7: community is like from our perspective, they continue to be

3119
02:37:37,320 --> 02:37:39,880
Speaker 7: like five steps ahead of us, you know of like

3120
02:37:40,080 --> 02:37:43,000
Speaker 7: where we need to go as as a as a people.

3121
02:37:43,480 --> 02:37:45,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, this was like the sex worker orgs for us.

3122
02:37:45,560 --> 02:37:49,160
Speaker 3: But then because this is another thing with left just

3123
02:37:49,240 --> 02:37:50,720
Speaker 3: kind of shit the bed right, Like this is a

3124
02:37:50,760 --> 02:37:53,520
Speaker 3: thing with Bernie where Bernie voted for SIS to Falster

3125
02:37:54,080 --> 02:37:57,480
Speaker 3: right and there's never been a reckoning about that at all. Yeah,

3126
02:37:57,640 --> 02:37:59,879
Speaker 3: and so you know, like the stuff that could have

3127
02:38:00,800 --> 02:38:04,360
Speaker 3: come out of that just kind of never did, and

3128
02:38:05,040 --> 02:38:06,800
Speaker 3: we never got the kind of integration and the kind

3129
02:38:06,840 --> 02:38:09,480
Speaker 3: of politics that we could have had if people had

3130
02:38:09,520 --> 02:38:14,400
Speaker 3: been like five percent, well not five so they would

3131
02:38:14,440 --> 02:38:16,200
Speaker 3: be able to require them to move their positions a bit.

3132
02:38:16,200 --> 02:38:19,920
Speaker 3: But like people had actually cared about sex workers, we

3133
02:38:20,240 --> 02:38:21,200
Speaker 3: wouldn't be here right now.

3134
02:38:21,320 --> 02:38:24,720
Speaker 5: But you told a different story. Yeah, yeah, well that

3135
02:38:24,800 --> 02:38:25,520
Speaker 5: was informative.

3136
02:38:26,480 --> 02:38:30,440
Speaker 7: This has been, Uh, I don't know, how do I

3137
02:38:30,480 --> 02:38:31,520
Speaker 7: how do we describe what.

3138
02:38:31,520 --> 02:38:32,080
Speaker 5: This has been?

3139
02:38:32,240 --> 02:38:34,800
Speaker 4: Well, miya, you know, I think I closed this right,

3140
02:38:35,080 --> 02:38:36,760
Speaker 4: Like this situation isn't hopeless.

3141
02:38:36,840 --> 02:38:39,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, there's there's been a lot of good tenanted

3142
02:38:39,320 --> 02:38:42,120
Speaker 3: organizing going on, Like there's a lot of kinds of

3143
02:38:42,160 --> 02:38:45,320
Speaker 3: stuff that can and do work. It's knows to the

3144
02:38:45,360 --> 02:38:48,280
Speaker 3: grindstone time, right, it is time to lock in, time

3145
02:38:48,320 --> 02:38:51,240
Speaker 3: to organize, and these communities can be organized.

3146
02:38:51,400 --> 02:38:53,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, we just haven't yet.

3147
02:38:53,200 --> 02:38:56,959
Speaker 7: And you know, yeah to your point, like for me,

3148
02:38:57,160 --> 02:39:01,080
Speaker 7: like all information is helpful, like like somebody's lying to you,

3149
02:39:01,160 --> 02:39:04,800
Speaker 7: like it's it's good information to know that this person

3150
02:39:05,320 --> 02:39:08,360
Speaker 7: thinks that that's something worth lying about, you know, like

3151
02:39:08,440 --> 02:39:10,480
Speaker 7: you just you just told me something about yourself that

3152
02:39:10,520 --> 02:39:12,080
Speaker 7: the fact that you think that that's worth lying about.

3153
02:39:12,160 --> 02:39:16,360
Speaker 7: So I say all that to say this understanding a

3154
02:39:16,400 --> 02:39:19,360
Speaker 7: better understanding of like it's hard to reason reason with

3155
02:39:19,400 --> 02:39:22,600
Speaker 7: somebody when they're hungry, you know, so just a better

3156
02:39:22,720 --> 02:39:27,120
Speaker 7: understanding of what are these communities actually prioritize, what do

3157
02:39:27,200 --> 02:39:32,680
Speaker 7: they actually value? And obviously, like you know, the dims

3158
02:39:32,720 --> 02:39:35,760
Speaker 7: and and unfortunately even the left was just like just

3159
02:39:35,920 --> 02:39:39,720
Speaker 7: swinging a miss guys, Like this type of thing, like

3160
02:39:39,760 --> 02:39:41,440
Speaker 7: you said, is not hopeless. It's like, now there's an

3161
02:39:41,480 --> 02:39:46,000
Speaker 7: understanding of like, okay, so you value the hustle, all right, well,

3162
02:39:46,040 --> 02:39:48,600
Speaker 7: let me tell you in the ways for which the

3163
02:39:48,720 --> 02:39:51,160
Speaker 7: choice you just made is working against your hustle, you know,

3164
02:39:51,360 --> 02:39:54,320
Speaker 7: like or now now here, Here are ways for which

3165
02:39:54,840 --> 02:39:57,080
Speaker 7: you can, like you said no to the grind and

3166
02:39:57,120 --> 02:39:59,880
Speaker 7: accomplish these goals in a way that's not so detri

3167
02:40:00,080 --> 02:40:02,680
Speaker 7: mental to the people around you. Yeah, you know, I'll

3168
02:40:02,680 --> 02:40:05,039
Speaker 7: with it. Like, I'm not hopeless either. I think that

3169
02:40:05,280 --> 02:40:06,879
Speaker 7: we just need to think about the word our word

3170
02:40:06,959 --> 02:40:09,520
Speaker 7: choice and what hells we willing to die on and

3171
02:40:09,600 --> 02:40:12,280
Speaker 7: be like, this is what we meant when we said this.

3172
02:40:12,680 --> 02:40:17,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, hey, We'll be back Monday with more episodes every

3173
02:40:17,400 --> 02:40:19,600
Speaker 1: week from now until the heat death of the Universe.

3174
02:40:19,879 --> 02:40:22,360
Speaker 4: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

3175
02:40:22,560 --> 02:40:25,640
Speaker 2: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

3176
02:40:25,680 --> 02:40:28,240
Speaker 2: cool Zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the

3177
02:40:28,280 --> 02:40:32,400
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

3178
02:40:32,680 --> 02:40:34,600
Speaker 2: You can now find sources for It Could Happen here

3179
02:40:34,640 --> 02:40:36,440
Speaker 2: listed directly in episode descriptions.

3180
02:40:36,800 --> 02:40:37,600
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening.