WEBVTT - 10 Most Undervalued Early-To-Mid Round SPs (EP. 757) 0:00:06.160 --> 0:00:08.400 Welcome in everybody in too Fantasy Pros. This is a 0:00:08.440 --> 0:00:11.720 Fantasy Baseball podcast. It's me Joey Page, Joe Pi Zapia, 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:13.880 and today the Welsh and I are going to talk 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:18.320 about the ten most undervalued early to mid round starting pitchers. 0:00:18.360 --> 0:00:21.040 Because pitching has become a little bit of a Rubik's 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:24.040 cube the last few years, and sometimes you can cheat 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:26.480 and take the stickers off, and sometimes you can't. Welsh 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:28.120 and I are going to try our best here to 0:00:28.240 --> 0:00:32.240 solve the puzzle that is the pitcher category in twenty 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:34.800 twenty four. Welsh, I know that we've talked a lot 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:37.639 about our pitching strategy the last few years. Last year 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.920 I was very much in the let's buy in bulk, 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:42.640 let's let the top guys fade. Feels like more than ever, 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:44.879 some of the top guys just aren't even there. It's 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:47.120 not nearly as deep as it once was. It feels 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:48.800 like we're gonna be buying in bulk again. And I 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:52.199 think this group that we're talking about really encapsulates some 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:54.320 of those names. I think are really going to help 0:00:54.360 --> 0:00:57.920 people assemble rotations because now it's not just about having 0:00:57.920 --> 0:00:59.640 that one guy at the top in fantasy or maybe 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:02.000 even two. It's about really having depth of that rotation 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:04.200 because you know guys are going to miss time. You know, 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:06.840 people aren't throwing two hundred innings anymore. Those are you know, 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:08.920 those days are long gone. So we want to get 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:10.760 the quality and you think some of these names on 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:12.080 this list today can give us that. 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:14.800 I think what we're looking at is we're looking at 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:18.800 primary SP twos and SP threes like under Maybe that's 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:21.520 even the way for you guys to consume the title 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.320 of this is undervalued SP twos and threes, because I 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:26.480 think parts of the upper list of who the guys 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:29.080 were going to talk about, they would the very first 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:30.920 guy would be actually a great number two. If you're 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:34.240 talking about RPP, you're talking about relative position value of 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:36.640 that spot and SP two what do. 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:37.679 They actually perform at? 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:39.399 So I think we're gonna have the first four or 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:42.840 five work really well as SP twos or solid undervalued 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:44.720 SP twos, and then we get into the SP three 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:47.280 market because yeah, there's a bunch of different ways that 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:50.120 the pocket aces strategy. I don't want to say it's 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:51.440 dead because it'll be someone out there. 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.000 That's like, well, well, let me tell you. 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.080 You know, fleeing and and they'll be like Gambit, They'll 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:58.240 be like fling fling pocket ass, but it's dead. 0:01:58.360 --> 0:01:59.520 It's dead, like nobody. 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:05.960 Does it anymore ready for reference, first one was on 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:08.480 the other day where he's like Cyclops Storm and what's 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:10.359 your name? And he turns to Patrick Stewart he goes, 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:11.320 what's your name? Wheels. 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:14.640 That's a great it's a great lot x men is 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:16.639 that's my all time thing. We need a graphics team 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:18.200 where if I ever do that, we can just light 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:20.960 up a card and pocket. But the whole point was 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:24.280 for that positionally, like pocket ases are ideally it's kind 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:27.160 of dead, but you're wanting to like live in the 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.640 top probably twelve to fifteen SP and then you're gonna 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:34.280 most likely look for at least two in that SP 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:36.760 twenty to thirty five range. So we're gonna talk about 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:38.600 some of those undervalued guys here. 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.200 And draft season is already upon us, folks, and we 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:44.200 are here. Draft prep is on and fantasypros dot Com 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:46.680 Slash Draft Kit as you cover. 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Let's start with the 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:18.519 first guy on our list, and it's Blake Snell of 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:21.680 the Well. I don't know because it is two twenty 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.880 two pm on the sixth of February and he still 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:28.280 doesn't have a team. A pretty good season for Blake Snell. 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:30.239 Oh man, I still have it in place. 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:31.880 To play, to find a home. 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:33.520 He sounds a lot like the guy who wants to 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:35.880 have pocket hass. I'm just saying last year, coming off 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:37.880 a season with two hundred and thirty four strikeouts, he 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:40.600 did walk ninety nine guys though, so still some up 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:42.000 and down. But this is a guy who has now 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:44.200 too cy Young's to his resume. And then a lot 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:47.160 of ifs in between, and I think that's kind of 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:50.880 why you're seeing what the ADP you're seeing for Blake Snell. 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:54.080 I imagine at some point though it's going to tick up. 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:57.080 Right now, the ECR has him at seventy overall, But 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.040 at the same time, Welsh, I think when he does 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:00.920 sign it, if he signed with the contender, you're gonna 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:03.640 see this ADP change. What's your take on Blake Snell's 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:05.200 value regardless of the landing spot. 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:06.120 Yeah, I think you nailed it. 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:09.920 He's definitely being undervalued because people are like, well, I 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:11.640 don't know where he is, and I think a lot 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:12.720 of people are. 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.200 Gonna end up making that case of like, well, you know. 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:18.400 Wherever he goes, probably not like Blake Snell is a 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:22.080 unique character across the board, as many people have noted. 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:25.400 In this offseason, we had this really hilarious debate that happened. 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:27.640 It was almost an argument fight of our friends Nick 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.400 Pollock and Ino Seras, where Nick was just not about 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:33.559 that Blake Snell life and Eno was about that Blake 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:35.839 Snell life. And what came from a lot of this 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:39.560 was the walk numbers are worrisome, but it's also part 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:41.600 of his strategy and how he attacks, So it's not 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:43.760 gonna help your whip or anything like that, but it's 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:47.359 an upper tier strikeout. I mean, he has had six 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:50.839 straight years of over thirty percent K percentage. He just 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.920 had a two low two two two point two five ERA, 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:58.080 two straight years of an expected ERA that was under four, 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.000 which is great. This is a more mature pitcher, and 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:03.839 he made some big changes, specifically the change up that 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.039 was something everyone was very critical about. Through it five 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:08.279 percent of the time in twenty twenty two. This past year, 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.640 it became his third most used pitch at eighteen percent. 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:11.680 Of the time. 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:15.200 And guess what, Blake Snell three of four pitches used, 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:18.400 which are all over ten percent, had a forty six 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:20.640 or higher percent with rate. I know a lot of 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:23.520 people will talk specifically and like swinging strike rate, and 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:25.000 we know the k's are up there, but I just 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:27.880 like to point out fifty plus is elite. 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:28.920 You rarely see. 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:30.839 I think the only guy that had a higher WIF 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.240 percentage on a pitch that I'm recalling off the top 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:36.520 of my brain was Senga's ghost fork. He's got two 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.240 that are over fifty and another that's at forty six. 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:42.520 So it's high strikeout percentage. He has learned his usage 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.039 and in theory with the teams that are out there, 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:46.960 there's a lot of markets that would work well. If 0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:49.400 he did go to his hometown in Seattle. We would 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.039 love that we could manage with the Angels. I don't 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:54.240 think it's like an inferior ballpark if he were to 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:56.640 go there. So you chase your strikeouts. Hopefully he goes 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:58.760 to a team that can put up some wins, but 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.000 he's being un undervalued for the strikeouts that you get 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.040 and for all the critical stuff about the walks to 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:05.600 low to e erra. 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:07.280 We're gonna take Blake Snell M. 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:10.120 I don't think I'm going to be chase in the 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:13.880 sub three e R. But I do agree also that, 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:16.400 you know, I think that not only Blake Snell, I 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:18.160 think has you know, figured some things out last year, 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.360 maybe some more consistency going forward. He's also not the 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:22.360 kind of guy personality wise that I think is going 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:24.560 to press. You know, sometimes we see these guys a 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:26.840 free agent signed big deals and they press a little bit. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:29.960 I don't get that sense with Blake Snell that he 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:31.640 is going to be worried too much about that. I 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.320 think he's gonna go home, hang out, play video games, 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:35.840 go pitch, and he's just gonna be Blake Snell no 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:36.640 matter what dream. 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:37.320 I don't know if he. 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:40.960 Speaking of our friend Nick Pollock. I know you and 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.160 I both did Pitchcon a couple weeks ago, which was great. 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:44.919 If you haven't, you can go donate over there the 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:47.600 Als Drive. I'm still sure they're taking money over there 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:49.840 for that. But I did a little roast of Nick 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:52.080 Pollock and I said, he looks like the guy who 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:54.840 runs a New York coffee shop and if you've been 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:57.200 there too long, sitting there doing work, he asks you 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.520 to either order another latte or leave. Don't you think 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.760 that's the Nick Pollock where he's like, Hi, excuse me, Yeah, 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:04.480 you've been here for two hours and you've only had 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:07.159 one coffee, so I'm gonna need you to order another one. 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:09.520 Maybe you're calling him a hipster. I think it's what 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:09.920 you're doing. 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:14.200 I love you, Nick. I can't wait to have you 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:16.200 back on the show, buddy. All right, let's get to 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:17.960 Nick always comes on. 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:19.720 I'm sure he's excited to come back. 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.560 Yaf thrilled. I'm excited for our next guy. He is 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:26.040 Zach Efflin. Look at that transition. Always pay attention, folks 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.880 do whenever the Rays get a reclamation project. I mean, 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:30.200 I don't know, EVE been doing this for like a 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:32.520 decade now, and it's always the same thing. So e 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:34.400 Flyn's a guy with a four ERA in his career. 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.840 All of a sudden, what happens. He goes to Tampa, 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:39.880 that era gets knocked down by half a run. He 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.560 has an incredible run of one hundred and eighty six strikeouts, 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.400 one hundred and seventy seven eights, win sixteen games, pitches 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.560 in a good ballpark. He had the whip of one 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:51.160 point zero two. I mean the x FIP was three 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:53.400 point one two. So it's not fluky stuff here we're 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:55.280 talking about. We're talking about a guy who really made 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:59.559 some great strides, and right now in the ECR Efflyn 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:01.880 is still just barely outside of the top twenty pitchers. 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:03.040 And to me, that makes him a value. 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:04.320 It does make him a value. 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:08.360 And one of the wild things have been projections in general. 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:10.360 I might be screwing this number up, But guess what, 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.160 you guys can go and double check it out. If 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.880 you go over to fangraphs, you can check out via 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:18.640 their different projections the Auction Calculator and I believe Zach 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:22.560 Effln via the BAT, which is Derek Carty's projections, he's 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.720 like the twelfth best dollar return of any single picture, 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:26.840 so essentially lining him. 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:27.360 Up as the twelfth. 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:31.160 I believe ATC has him between eleven and thirteen. Regardless, 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:35.400 he's projecting out as a top fifteen pitcher in every 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:39.760 single projection. By the way, ATC was voted the best 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:42.160 who we had Ariolan go check out the projections episode. 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.480 He was voted the most accurate system of an aggregate 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:49.080 or of any Derek Carty was the best singular non 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:53.120 aggregated system, so I am referencing both the two best 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:54.000 on the market. 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:56.199 If you look at projections, they've got him. 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.160 BAT has him at round eight and a half k 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:02.600 per nine under two walks per nine, but not projecting 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:05.520 a big jump in innings, which is interesting because he 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.480 just put up one hundred and seventy seven but really 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:11.400 great K minus walk percentage three percent walk rate last 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:14.960 year twenty six and a half strikeout rate. He overperformed 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:16.800 his expected era, so he had a three and a 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:20.959 half the ra the expected was three and as you mentioned. 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:22.640 The Rays just do great things with people. 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:24.920 They like to add cutters, and that actually might kind 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.400 of open up the ballgame even more if the usage 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:29.720 goes up. He ended up using that more this past 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:31.880 year at twenty six percent. His curve ball was the 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:35.200 big strikeout option. But this guy will throw five or 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:38.640 six pitches. They're gonna manage the innings properly. Great defense 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:41.080 behind him, and like you said, the Rays work magic. 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:44.120 Every projections love him. He's a safe option. Guess what 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:46.040 I like a lot this year. I like, even though 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.199 we just talked about Blakes now, I like low walk 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:52.280 guys Logan Web, George Kurbier, and Zach Eflin because if 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:54.200 you have one minor change and you go from a 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:56.880 low like let's just say, I know people want K 0:09:56.960 --> 0:09:59.200 percentage or K per nine, but let's just go with 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:01.280 K percentage kate per nine. If you have like an 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:03.880 eight and a half strikeouts per nine innings and you're 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:06.280 super low walk, if you jump over nine, you make 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:08.920 one big adjustment. You might go from being a solid 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:13.040 pitcher to an elite pitcher, right because of Ratio's innings wins, strikeouts. 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.120 So I love guys like that, and that's who eflyn 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:16.160 is and he good day. 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:18.240 That's good pitching. Good picion is not putting guys on base, 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:19.920 not trying to work out of jams, especially if you 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:22.880 don't have the dominant stuff quote unquote for strikeouts. You know, 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:24.280 if you can limit that, like the you know, the 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:25.880 Logan Webs of the world and some of these other guys, 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:27.400 you are going to put yourself in a better position 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:29.199 to win. If you are a tough pitcher to hit 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:31.920 to begin with, and you can limit your walks, you're 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:33.880 gonna have success in the big league level if you 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:36.040 have all the other intangible things there. Before we get 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:39.520 to the next guy too, don't forget it's not just 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:42.320 time to start mock drafting. It's time to really start 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.600 getting your leagues together. 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So make 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:41.679 it the permanent home for all of your fantasy leagues. 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:43.679 Sign up for free today and you can be entered 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:46.240 into the fan Tracks Game day experience, where fan Tracks 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:48.360 will send you and your league mates on an MLB 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:52.040 game trip of your choice. Simply go to fantracks dot 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.079 com slash Fantasy Pros to sign up today. That's fantracks 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.640 dot com slash Fantasy Pros fan Tracks, the home of 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:01.280 fantasy sports. Joe Ryan is going to have a home 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.040 on a lot of my fantasy teams. I know last 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:05.000 year was kind of a tale of two halves. The 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:07.480 first half a three point seven zero ERA over his 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:10.280 first eighteen starts. The guy was fantastic. I know, I 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:12.400 had him in a bunch of spots. I was loving life. 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:16.559 Strikeout rate was high over ten point four k's per nine. 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.839 Then the second half came an ERA balloon to six. 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:22.320 We know we missed some time there with an injury, 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.160 only fifty four innings in the second half too. Now, 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.160 the strikeout rate was still high with that whip balloon 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:29.319 to one point four to a two. So Joe Ryan 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:32.320 bounced back, Candidate Welsh, I say yes, what say you? Yeah? 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:34.880 I mean bounce back might even not be the term, 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:36.920 Like he already kind of bounced in. He's's going to 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:39.120 be more jibbli bounces that are coming. Last year he 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.280 ended up getting rid of that change up and no 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.400 longer being like a five to six type of pitcher. 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.400 Four pitches he honed in on three of them he 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.560 threw double digit percentage of the time. The three that 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:54.000 he threw double digits or more. They all had an 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.920 increase in with percentage. And what's the one He lowered 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:00.559 his slider, which just dropped a little bit being uneffective. 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.160 That was actually the pitch he threw the second most, 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.920 So he incorporated a sweeper. The split finger was a 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:07.720 big change. It almost doubled in strikeout percentage. He was 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.839 elite almost top ten percent a league in strikeout rate 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:14.200 twenty nine point three. That's a big k percentage. Low 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:18.720 walks again five point one. He overperformed his expected ERA 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:20.880 by a full run, so that means he had a 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:23.320 four and a half ERA, which is stinky, but an 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.440 expected three point five three, which would have been second 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.280 best of his career. I love what the Twins have 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.240 just in general been doing. He found a way to 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:34.040 cover every point of the zone. I think he needs 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:35.920 to get that sweeper a little bit out more, because 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:37.800 if you go and look at his zone chart, fastballs 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:41.319 up top, split fingers on the bottom, the main slider 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:43.840 is over on this kind of inside corner and the 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.360 sweeper wasn't hitting enough outside. So I think that's like 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.560 maybe an easy fix to being even more effective for 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.600 a guy that's already massively high on strikeouts, and he's 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.959 not a burner. He's actually similar to who the hell 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.120 were we just talking about. Let's say Eflin, Yeah, e Flyn. 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:00.560 E Flyn throws around ninety two. That's how Joe Ryan is. 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.240 But it's command. It's being able to pinpoint those pitches 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.360 with not having any rough walks. 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:06.320 Five percent walk rate. 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:08.520 I love Joe Ryan. Joe Ryan is an example of 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.760 the player that has the low walks with great probably 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:13.880 one of the best strikeout numbers besides Blake Stell on 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.880 this list. The only problem was the era overperformed what 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.320 it should have done. So that's a maybe a key 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:21.920 tell that there might be a lot of improvement this year. 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.000 And where he's going, what did we say, It's like 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:28.120 around twenty something of sps or twenty fives. 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.080 Right now on the consensus looking at Joe Ryan, he 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:35.240 is twenty fourth starting pitcher right now ranked, So legit, 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.640 this is the last strikeout exactly. I think he's closer 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:39.480 to fifteen than he is to twenty five, and right 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:41.880 now you're getting him closer to twenty five. So this 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:43.920 might be the last time you get that. Because if 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:46.960 let's say he was hurt for the whole second half Welsh. 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:49.160 He's a top twenty pitcher. Right. Let's say if he 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:52.840 didn't have those bad eleven starts that really dragged everything 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:55.760 down a little bit, absence makes the Hartcrow fonder. You 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:57.760 and I both know we'd be looking at saying, oh, well, 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:00.800 you know he's healthy, everything's fine. You know what, forget it, 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:02.880 let's just jump back in. So I'm not gonna let 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:04.640 it bother me too much. I think this is the 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:06.760 last time you get a discount like that on Joe Ryan. 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:08.920 The next guy on our list, The fourth guy we're 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.040 going to talk about here is Uri Perez of the 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:14.880 Miami Marlins. Perez last year dominated the minor leagues, then 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.560 came up into the big league level and certainly made 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:20.600 his presence known. Ninety one innings, he was only five 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:21.960 and six, but he did have one hundred and eight 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:24.280 strikeouts and a three one five ERA in a one 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.240 point one to three whip. Now, some of the secondary 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:28.360 deeper numbers there will suggest that the ERA should have 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:30.520 been a little higher. That's fair. It's a young pitcher. 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:33.680 Innings will be a question, but upside is enormous. I 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.880 think the Marlins team we all agree is going to be, 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.479 you know, another work in progress, even though they overachieved 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:41.200 last year. Do you think that Uri Perez is a 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:42.840 little too much hype or do you think he is 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:46.720 one of these guys that's still technically undervalued despite having 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:48.920 never pitched a full season in the big leagues yet. 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.840 Yeah, I still think undervalued is the way to look 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:52.120 at it. 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:52.440 Now. 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:54.760 The worry or the reason you can make the argument 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.560 on the other side is he's still young. You know, 0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.800 they might say how much are they going to limit innings? 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.920 He's only projected, and again, like I guess you don't 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.080 want to cherry pick projections, but there's also things that 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:07.360 I'm I'm not sure projections do super well. I'm not 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.920 sure I would pinpoint innings pitched as something that I'm 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:14.000 gonna like, what is their marker off of just maybe 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.920 baseline percentages Because they're projecting him around one to twenty two. 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.960 They maintained him pretty well last year. I think he 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:20.000 legit gets to one. 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:21.880 I don't know why he couldn't get to one fifty 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:24.560 unless they had really big injury warriors, which really don't 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:27.320 exist out there. Projections got him over ten k per nine, 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:29.560 which is elite I think they have a hard time 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:32.480 projecting overall wins. But you're looking at one of the 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:34.920 bigger strikeout guys in the league. It was almost top 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:38.040 ten percent out of overall K percentage twenty eight point 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:41.480 nine with percentage top seven percent in the league, good 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:45.720 chase rate, kIPS low batting average, and is a fireball 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:47.880 fastball guy that can throw at really any point in 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:51.240 the zone average almost ninety eight, was ninety seven and 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:53.800 a half, but huge secondary pitches. He doesn't get the 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:56.960 strikeouts off the fastball, gets off the slider in the curveball. 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:01.080 And as we know, this organization develops change ups phenomenally 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.040 with an offseason, maybe working with Sandy Sandy and they 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:05.639 got anything else to do, Tommy John, you get a 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.160 forty six percent with rate on that change up last year. 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:08.760 I wouldn't be. 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:10.800 Shocked to see it jump up. This is another pitcher 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:14.879