Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody in too Fantasy Pros. This is a
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball podcast. It's me Joey Page, Joe Pi Zapia,
Speaker 1: and today the Welsh and I are going to talk
Speaker 1: about the ten most undervalued early to mid round starting pitchers.
Speaker 1: Because pitching has become a little bit of a Rubik's
Speaker 1: cube the last few years, and sometimes you can cheat
Speaker 1: and take the stickers off, and sometimes you can't. Welsh
Speaker 1: and I are going to try our best here to
Speaker 1: solve the puzzle that is the pitcher category in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four. Welsh, I know that we've talked a lot
Speaker 1: about our pitching strategy the last few years. Last year
Speaker 1: I was very much in the let's buy in bulk,
Speaker 1: let's let the top guys fade. Feels like more than ever,
Speaker 1: some of the top guys just aren't even there. It's
Speaker 1: not nearly as deep as it once was. It feels
Speaker 1: like we're gonna be buying in bulk again. And I
Speaker 1: think this group that we're talking about really encapsulates some
Speaker 1: of those names. I think are really going to help
Speaker 1: people assemble rotations because now it's not just about having
Speaker 1: that one guy at the top in fantasy or maybe
Speaker 1: even two. It's about really having depth of that rotation
Speaker 1: because you know guys are going to miss time. You know,
Speaker 1: people aren't throwing two hundred innings anymore. Those are you know,
Speaker 1: those days are long gone. So we want to get
Speaker 1: the quality and you think some of these names on
Speaker 1: this list today can give us that.
Speaker 2: I think what we're looking at is we're looking at
Speaker 2: primary SP twos and SP threes like under Maybe that's
Speaker 2: even the way for you guys to consume the title
Speaker 2: of this is undervalued SP twos and threes, because I
Speaker 2: think parts of the upper list of who the guys
Speaker 2: were going to talk about, they would the very first
Speaker 2: guy would be actually a great number two. If you're
Speaker 2: talking about RPP, you're talking about relative position value of
Speaker 2: that spot and SP two what do.
Speaker 3: They actually perform at?
Speaker 2: So I think we're gonna have the first four or
Speaker 2: five work really well as SP twos or solid undervalued
Speaker 2: SP twos, and then we get into the SP three
Speaker 2: market because yeah, there's a bunch of different ways that
Speaker 2: the pocket aces strategy. I don't want to say it's
Speaker 2: dead because it'll be someone out there.
Speaker 3: That's like, well, well, let me tell you.
Speaker 2: You know, fleeing and and they'll be like Gambit, They'll
Speaker 2: be like fling fling pocket ass, but it's dead.
Speaker 3: It's dead, like nobody.
Speaker 1: Does it anymore ready for reference, first one was on
Speaker 1: the other day where he's like Cyclops Storm and what's
Speaker 1: your name? And he turns to Patrick Stewart he goes,
Speaker 1: what's your name? Wheels.
Speaker 2: That's a great it's a great lot x men is
Speaker 2: that's my all time thing. We need a graphics team
Speaker 2: where if I ever do that, we can just light
Speaker 2: up a card and pocket. But the whole point was
Speaker 2: for that positionally, like pocket ases are ideally it's kind
Speaker 2: of dead, but you're wanting to like live in the
Speaker 2: top probably twelve to fifteen SP and then you're gonna
Speaker 2: most likely look for at least two in that SP
Speaker 2: twenty to thirty five range. So we're gonna talk about
Speaker 2: some of those undervalued guys here.
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Speaker 1: All your leagues and all your places. And remember you
Speaker 1: could set all your lineups from one spot using the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros app. That's pretty amazing. Let's start with the
Speaker 1: first guy on our list, and it's Blake Snell of
Speaker 1: the Well. I don't know because it is two twenty
Speaker 1: two pm on the sixth of February and he still
Speaker 1: doesn't have a team. A pretty good season for Blake Snell.
Speaker 1: Oh man, I still have it in place.
Speaker 3: To play, to find a home.
Speaker 1: He sounds a lot like the guy who wants to
Speaker 1: have pocket hass. I'm just saying last year, coming off
Speaker 1: a season with two hundred and thirty four strikeouts, he
Speaker 1: did walk ninety nine guys though, so still some up
Speaker 1: and down. But this is a guy who has now
Speaker 1: too cy Young's to his resume. And then a lot
Speaker 1: of ifs in between, and I think that's kind of
Speaker 1: why you're seeing what the ADP you're seeing for Blake Snell.
Speaker 1: I imagine at some point though it's going to tick up.
Speaker 1: Right now, the ECR has him at seventy overall, But
Speaker 1: at the same time, Welsh, I think when he does
Speaker 1: sign it, if he signed with the contender, you're gonna
Speaker 1: see this ADP change. What's your take on Blake Snell's
Speaker 1: value regardless of the landing spot.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you nailed it.
Speaker 2: He's definitely being undervalued because people are like, well, I
Speaker 2: don't know where he is, and I think a lot
Speaker 2: of people are.
Speaker 3: Gonna end up making that case of like, well, you know.
Speaker 2: Wherever he goes, probably not like Blake Snell is a
Speaker 2: unique character across the board, as many people have noted.
Speaker 2: In this offseason, we had this really hilarious debate that happened.
Speaker 2: It was almost an argument fight of our friends Nick
Speaker 2: Pollock and Ino Seras, where Nick was just not about
Speaker 2: that Blake Snell life and Eno was about that Blake
Speaker 2: Snell life. And what came from a lot of this
Speaker 2: was the walk numbers are worrisome, but it's also part
Speaker 2: of his strategy and how he attacks, So it's not
Speaker 2: gonna help your whip or anything like that, but it's
Speaker 2: an upper tier strikeout. I mean, he has had six
Speaker 2: straight years of over thirty percent K percentage. He just
Speaker 2: had a two low two two two point two five ERA,
Speaker 2: two straight years of an expected ERA that was under four,
Speaker 2: which is great. This is a more mature pitcher, and
Speaker 2: he made some big changes, specifically the change up that
Speaker 2: was something everyone was very critical about. Through it five
Speaker 2: percent of the time in twenty twenty two. This past year,
Speaker 2: it became his third most used pitch at eighteen percent.
Speaker 3: Of the time.
Speaker 2: And guess what, Blake Snell three of four pitches used,
Speaker 2: which are all over ten percent, had a forty six
Speaker 2: or higher percent with rate. I know a lot of
Speaker 2: people will talk specifically and like swinging strike rate, and
Speaker 2: we know the k's are up there, but I just
Speaker 2: like to point out fifty plus is elite.
Speaker 3: You rarely see.
Speaker 2: I think the only guy that had a higher WIF
Speaker 2: percentage on a pitch that I'm recalling off the top
Speaker 2: of my brain was Senga's ghost fork. He's got two
Speaker 2: that are over fifty and another that's at forty six.
Speaker 2: So it's high strikeout percentage. He has learned his usage
Speaker 2: and in theory with the teams that are out there,
Speaker 2: there's a lot of markets that would work well. If
Speaker 2: he did go to his hometown in Seattle. We would
Speaker 2: love that we could manage with the Angels. I don't
Speaker 2: think it's like an inferior ballpark if he were to
Speaker 2: go there. So you chase your strikeouts. Hopefully he goes
Speaker 2: to a team that can put up some wins, but
Speaker 2: he's being un undervalued for the strikeouts that you get
Speaker 2: and for all the critical stuff about the walks to
Speaker 2: low to e erra.
Speaker 3: We're gonna take Blake Snell M.
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm going to be chase in the
Speaker 1: sub three e R. But I do agree also that,
Speaker 1: you know, I think that not only Blake Snell, I
Speaker 1: think has you know, figured some things out last year,
Speaker 1: maybe some more consistency going forward. He's also not the
Speaker 1: kind of guy personality wise that I think is going
Speaker 1: to press. You know, sometimes we see these guys a
Speaker 1: free agent signed big deals and they press a little bit.
Speaker 1: I don't get that sense with Blake Snell that he
Speaker 1: is going to be worried too much about that. I
Speaker 1: think he's gonna go home, hang out, play video games,
Speaker 1: go pitch, and he's just gonna be Blake Snell no
Speaker 1: matter what dream.
Speaker 3: I don't know if he.
Speaker 1: Speaking of our friend Nick Pollock. I know you and
Speaker 1: I both did Pitchcon a couple weeks ago, which was great.
Speaker 1: If you haven't, you can go donate over there the
Speaker 1: Als Drive. I'm still sure they're taking money over there
Speaker 1: for that. But I did a little roast of Nick
Speaker 1: Pollock and I said, he looks like the guy who
Speaker 1: runs a New York coffee shop and if you've been
Speaker 1: there too long, sitting there doing work, he asks you
Speaker 1: to either order another latte or leave. Don't you think
Speaker 1: that's the Nick Pollock where he's like, Hi, excuse me, Yeah,
Speaker 1: you've been here for two hours and you've only had
Speaker 1: one coffee, so I'm gonna need you to order another one.
Speaker 3: Maybe you're calling him a hipster. I think it's what
Speaker 3: you're doing.
Speaker 1: I love you, Nick. I can't wait to have you
Speaker 1: back on the show, buddy. All right, let's get to
Speaker 1: Nick always comes on.
Speaker 3: I'm sure he's excited to come back.
Speaker 1: Yaf thrilled. I'm excited for our next guy. He is
Speaker 1: Zach Efflin. Look at that transition. Always pay attention, folks
Speaker 1: do whenever the Rays get a reclamation project. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know, EVE been doing this for like a
Speaker 1: decade now, and it's always the same thing. So e
Speaker 1: Flyn's a guy with a four ERA in his career.
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, what happens. He goes to Tampa,
Speaker 1: that era gets knocked down by half a run. He
Speaker 1: has an incredible run of one hundred and eighty six strikeouts,
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy seven eights, win sixteen games, pitches
Speaker 1: in a good ballpark. He had the whip of one
Speaker 1: point zero two. I mean the x FIP was three
Speaker 1: point one two. So it's not fluky stuff here we're
Speaker 1: talking about. We're talking about a guy who really made
Speaker 1: some great strides, and right now in the ECR Efflyn
Speaker 1: is still just barely outside of the top twenty pitchers.
Speaker 1: And to me, that makes him a value.
Speaker 3: It does make him a value.
Speaker 2: And one of the wild things have been projections in general.
Speaker 2: I might be screwing this number up, But guess what,
Speaker 2: you guys can go and double check it out. If
Speaker 2: you go over to fangraphs, you can check out via
Speaker 2: their different projections the Auction Calculator and I believe Zach
Speaker 2: Effln via the BAT, which is Derek Carty's projections, he's
Speaker 2: like the twelfth best dollar return of any single picture,
Speaker 2: so essentially lining him.
Speaker 3: Up as the twelfth.
Speaker 2: I believe ATC has him between eleven and thirteen. Regardless,
Speaker 2: he's projecting out as a top fifteen pitcher in every
Speaker 2: single projection. By the way, ATC was voted the best
Speaker 2: who we had Ariolan go check out the projections episode.
Speaker 2: He was voted the most accurate system of an aggregate
Speaker 2: or of any Derek Carty was the best singular non
Speaker 2: aggregated system, so I am referencing both the two best
Speaker 2: on the market.
Speaker 3: If you look at projections, they've got him.
Speaker 2: BAT has him at round eight and a half k
Speaker 2: per nine under two walks per nine, but not projecting
Speaker 2: a big jump in innings, which is interesting because he
Speaker 2: just put up one hundred and seventy seven but really
Speaker 2: great K minus walk percentage three percent walk rate last
Speaker 2: year twenty six and a half strikeout rate. He overperformed
Speaker 2: his expected era, so he had a three and a
Speaker 2: half the ra the expected was three and as you mentioned.
Speaker 3: The Rays just do great things with people.
Speaker 2: They like to add cutters, and that actually might kind
Speaker 2: of open up the ballgame even more if the usage
Speaker 2: goes up. He ended up using that more this past
Speaker 2: year at twenty six percent. His curve ball was the
Speaker 2: big strikeout option. But this guy will throw five or
Speaker 2: six pitches. They're gonna manage the innings properly. Great defense
Speaker 2: behind him, and like you said, the Rays work magic.
Speaker 2: Every projections love him. He's a safe option. Guess what
Speaker 2: I like a lot this year. I like, even though
Speaker 2: we just talked about Blakes now, I like low walk
Speaker 2: guys Logan Web, George Kurbier, and Zach Eflin because if
Speaker 2: you have one minor change and you go from a
Speaker 2: low like let's just say, I know people want K
Speaker 2: percentage or K per nine, but let's just go with
Speaker 2: K percentage kate per nine. If you have like an
Speaker 2: eight and a half strikeouts per nine innings and you're
Speaker 2: super low walk, if you jump over nine, you make
Speaker 2: one big adjustment. You might go from being a solid
Speaker 2: pitcher to an elite pitcher, right because of Ratio's innings wins, strikeouts.
Speaker 2: So I love guys like that, and that's who eflyn
Speaker 2: is and he good day.
Speaker 1: That's good pitching. Good picion is not putting guys on base,
Speaker 1: not trying to work out of jams, especially if you
Speaker 1: don't have the dominant stuff quote unquote for strikeouts. You know,
Speaker 1: if you can limit that, like the you know, the
Speaker 1: Logan Webs of the world and some of these other guys,
Speaker 1: you are going to put yourself in a better position
Speaker 1: to win. If you are a tough pitcher to hit
Speaker 1: to begin with, and you can limit your walks, you're
Speaker 1: gonna have success in the big league level if you
Speaker 1: have all the other intangible things there. Before we get
Speaker 1: to the next guy too, don't forget it's not just
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Speaker 1: fantasy sports. Joe Ryan is going to have a home
Speaker 1: on a lot of my fantasy teams. I know last
Speaker 1: year was kind of a tale of two halves. The
Speaker 1: first half a three point seven zero ERA over his
Speaker 1: first eighteen starts. The guy was fantastic. I know, I
Speaker 1: had him in a bunch of spots. I was loving life.
Speaker 1: Strikeout rate was high over ten point four k's per nine.
Speaker 1: Then the second half came an ERA balloon to six.
Speaker 1: We know we missed some time there with an injury,
Speaker 1: only fifty four innings in the second half too. Now,
Speaker 1: the strikeout rate was still high with that whip balloon
Speaker 1: to one point four to a two. So Joe Ryan
Speaker 1: bounced back, Candidate Welsh, I say yes, what say you? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I mean bounce back might even not be the term,
Speaker 2: Like he already kind of bounced in. He's's going to
Speaker 2: be more jibbli bounces that are coming. Last year he
Speaker 2: ended up getting rid of that change up and no
Speaker 2: longer being like a five to six type of pitcher.
Speaker 2: Four pitches he honed in on three of them he
Speaker 2: threw double digit percentage of the time. The three that
Speaker 2: he threw double digits or more. They all had an
Speaker 2: increase in with percentage. And what's the one He lowered
Speaker 2: his slider, which just dropped a little bit being uneffective.
Speaker 2: That was actually the pitch he threw the second most,
Speaker 2: So he incorporated a sweeper. The split finger was a
Speaker 2: big change. It almost doubled in strikeout percentage. He was
Speaker 2: elite almost top ten percent a league in strikeout rate
Speaker 2: twenty nine point three. That's a big k percentage. Low
Speaker 2: walks again five point one. He overperformed his expected ERA
Speaker 2: by a full run, so that means he had a
Speaker 2: four and a half ERA, which is stinky, but an
Speaker 2: expected three point five three, which would have been second
Speaker 2: best of his career. I love what the Twins have
Speaker 2: just in general been doing. He found a way to
Speaker 2: cover every point of the zone. I think he needs
Speaker 2: to get that sweeper a little bit out more, because
Speaker 2: if you go and look at his zone chart, fastballs
Speaker 2: up top, split fingers on the bottom, the main slider
Speaker 2: is over on this kind of inside corner and the
Speaker 2: sweeper wasn't hitting enough outside. So I think that's like
Speaker 2: maybe an easy fix to being even more effective for
Speaker 2: a guy that's already massively high on strikeouts, and he's
Speaker 2: not a burner. He's actually similar to who the hell
Speaker 2: were we just talking about. Let's say Eflin, Yeah, e Flyn.
Speaker 2: E Flyn throws around ninety two. That's how Joe Ryan is.
Speaker 2: But it's command. It's being able to pinpoint those pitches
Speaker 2: with not having any rough walks.
Speaker 3: Five percent walk rate.
Speaker 2: I love Joe Ryan. Joe Ryan is an example of
Speaker 2: the player that has the low walks with great probably
Speaker 2: one of the best strikeout numbers besides Blake Stell on
Speaker 2: this list. The only problem was the era overperformed what
Speaker 2: it should have done. So that's a maybe a key
Speaker 2: tell that there might be a lot of improvement this year.
Speaker 2: And where he's going, what did we say, It's like
Speaker 2: around twenty something of sps or twenty fives.
Speaker 1: Right now on the consensus looking at Joe Ryan, he
Speaker 1: is twenty fourth starting pitcher right now ranked, So legit,
Speaker 1: this is the last strikeout exactly. I think he's closer
Speaker 1: to fifteen than he is to twenty five, and right
Speaker 1: now you're getting him closer to twenty five. So this
Speaker 1: might be the last time you get that. Because if
Speaker 1: let's say he was hurt for the whole second half Welsh.
Speaker 1: He's a top twenty pitcher. Right. Let's say if he
Speaker 1: didn't have those bad eleven starts that really dragged everything
Speaker 1: down a little bit, absence makes the Hartcrow fonder. You
Speaker 1: and I both know we'd be looking at saying, oh, well,
Speaker 1: you know he's healthy, everything's fine. You know what, forget it,
Speaker 1: let's just jump back in. So I'm not gonna let
Speaker 1: it bother me too much. I think this is the
Speaker 1: last time you get a discount like that on Joe Ryan.
Speaker 1: The next guy on our list, The fourth guy we're
Speaker 1: going to talk about here is Uri Perez of the
Speaker 1: Miami Marlins. Perez last year dominated the minor leagues, then
Speaker 1: came up into the big league level and certainly made
Speaker 1: his presence known. Ninety one innings, he was only five
Speaker 1: and six, but he did have one hundred and eight
Speaker 1: strikeouts and a three one five ERA in a one
Speaker 1: point one to three whip. Now, some of the secondary
Speaker 1: deeper numbers there will suggest that the ERA should have
Speaker 1: been a little higher. That's fair. It's a young pitcher.
Speaker 1: Innings will be a question, but upside is enormous. I
Speaker 1: think the Marlins team we all agree is going to be,
Speaker 1: you know, another work in progress, even though they overachieved
Speaker 1: last year. Do you think that Uri Perez is a
Speaker 1: little too much hype or do you think he is
Speaker 1: one of these guys that's still technically undervalued despite having
Speaker 1: never pitched a full season in the big leagues yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I still think undervalued is the way to look
Speaker 2: at it.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: The worry or the reason you can make the argument
Speaker 2: on the other side is he's still young. You know,
Speaker 2: they might say how much are they going to limit innings?
Speaker 2: He's only projected, and again, like I guess you don't
Speaker 2: want to cherry pick projections, but there's also things that
Speaker 2: I'm I'm not sure projections do super well. I'm not
Speaker 2: sure I would pinpoint innings pitched as something that I'm
Speaker 2: gonna like, what is their marker off of just maybe
Speaker 2: baseline percentages Because they're projecting him around one to twenty two.
Speaker 3: They maintained him pretty well last year. I think he
Speaker 3: legit gets to one.
Speaker 2: I don't know why he couldn't get to one fifty
Speaker 2: unless they had really big injury warriors, which really don't
Speaker 2: exist out there. Projections got him over ten k per nine,
Speaker 2: which is elite I think they have a hard time
Speaker 2: projecting overall wins. But you're looking at one of the
Speaker 2: bigger strikeout guys in the league. It was almost top
Speaker 2: ten percent out of overall K percentage twenty eight point
Speaker 2: nine with percentage top seven percent in the league, good
Speaker 2: chase rate, kIPS low batting average, and is a fireball
Speaker 2: fastball guy that can throw at really any point in
Speaker 2: the zone average almost ninety eight, was ninety seven and
Speaker 2: a half, but huge secondary pitches. He doesn't get the
Speaker 2: strikeouts off the fastball, gets off the slider in the curveball.
Speaker 2: And as we know, this organization develops change ups phenomenally
Speaker 2: with an offseason, maybe working with Sandy Sandy and they
Speaker 2: got anything else to do, Tommy John, you get a
Speaker 2: forty six percent with rate on that change up last year.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be.
Speaker 2: Shocked to see it jump up. This is another pitcher
Speaker 2: three of his four pitches forty six or higher with
Speaker 2: percentage and has less of a walk issue than you
Speaker 2: have with like a Blake Snell. So I think the
Speaker 2: only thing that holds people back are the innings projection.
Speaker 2: I'm just not going to let that hurt me. Maybe
Speaker 2: it could hurt a little bit in head to head roto.
Speaker 2: I'm still golden, but I'm less worried than everybody else is.
Speaker 2: If the Marlins are winning some games, He's going to
Speaker 2: keep going and he easily can put up top twenty
Speaker 2: SP numbers this year.
Speaker 1: The next guy on our list last year was a
Speaker 1: darling in the Fantasy Baseball analyst community, but he got
Speaker 1: off to a very rough start. In fact, in April
Speaker 1: he had an ERA above six. After that it was
Speaker 1: really smooth sailing for Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. Now
Speaker 1: Bradish finished the season very strong, one hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: eight total innings, same number of strikeouts. They are just
Speaker 1: forty four walks, a terrific kya walk ratio two point
Speaker 1: eight three ERA one point zero four whips. So Bradish
Speaker 1: is in the grid spot here now. And now that
Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns, who you know, we could talk about that
Speaker 1: real briefly too. I mean, you're getting a real number
Speaker 1: one at the front of that rotation. Takes a lot
Speaker 1: of pressure off Bradish, off Grays and Rodriguez. Now they
Speaker 1: could just let Corbyn Burns be the ace and just
Speaker 1: continue to do their thing. But Bradish, I know a
Speaker 1: lot of people were panicking last year in April. Once
Speaker 1: he got right, my god, was he good? Yeah?
Speaker 2: People you got like massive value if people were cutting him,
Speaker 2: and there a lot of people did.
Speaker 1: They freaked out, they cut they trade, it was it
Speaker 1: was bad. And then rightfully sat with six era, people
Speaker 1: are gonna start to panic. No offense and you can.
Speaker 2: Also worry like, oh bullpen without Felix, it's a little
Speaker 2: bit worse. But they did bring in kimberl Cano is
Speaker 2: going to be put back into that non full on
Speaker 2: leverage situation.
Speaker 3: So I still think that's good.
Speaker 2: Less pressure with Corbyn burns there. This was a solid
Speaker 2: strikeout guy, decently low walks. Still, even though he overperformed
Speaker 2: his expected era, he had a sub three era, it
Speaker 2: was still into the like mid threes. And what he
Speaker 2: did was he just made a concerted effort as a
Speaker 2: lot of teams should do as you evaluate pitches the
Speaker 2: previous year. The pitchy through the most was a fastball.
Speaker 2: It had like a seventeen percent withft rate. Fastballs usually
Speaker 2: don't have really good with rates on it. And then
Speaker 2: he was solid on sliders and curveballs. And by the way,
Speaker 2: with rates are not just like swinging strikes, but also
Speaker 2: just people burning through pitches.
Speaker 3: So what did he do this past year. He made
Speaker 3: the top pitch be.
Speaker 2: The slider, and we've actually seen players find a benefit
Speaker 2: to this. Hunter Green kind of revamped his career by
Speaker 2: being able to throw a slider as much or more
Speaker 2: than the fastball, and that's what Bradish ended up doing.
Speaker 2: So he threw over thirty percent of the time a
Speaker 2: slider that upticked his WIF percent should a thirty six
Speaker 2: and a half percent with rate, which was higher than
Speaker 2: the year before. And then he used the fastball and
Speaker 2: the sinker to set everything else up and then still
Speaker 2: drop a curveball in that also had a thirty five
Speaker 2: percent with rate, which was an way big improvement from
Speaker 2: the year prior. So he implements ground balls, he doesn't
Speaker 2: walk a ton, gets good strike strikes overall, gets strikeouts.
Speaker 2: You've got more support in the staff, and he got
Speaker 2: a great young team that's going to.
Speaker 3: Help the defensively.
Speaker 2: All the things work great, but he's a boring name
Speaker 2: that people are like, I don't know about Bradish. That's
Speaker 2: why he's undervalued because he's not being given the dues
Speaker 2: for I think.
Speaker 1: Maybe weird, maybe just takes people to longer to get
Speaker 1: on board with the Orioles because they've been so so
Speaker 1: much of a non participant in the last ten years,
Speaker 1: really so.
Speaker 3: But they've had great development, that's the thing that well.
Speaker 1: They have now, but on the past, I mean, I
Speaker 1: think it's hard to break the cycle of the Dylan
Speaker 1: Bundies and the Jake Arietas and the Kevin Gosman's of
Speaker 1: all these people back in the past that you had
Speaker 1: that you didn't develop. And now people are a little skittish,
Speaker 1: and I get it, but you shouldn't be when it
Speaker 1: comes to something.
Speaker 2: He gave Orioles fans absolute anxiety by bringing up his names.
Speaker 1: Just sorry if they're like, oh god, well, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, hey, but see, it's all true. I mean,
Speaker 1: he was the number one pitching prospect once upon a time.
Speaker 1: I'm old enough to remember that. I'm also old enough
Speaker 1: to remember when I was telling everybody last year to
Speaker 1: draft Joe Musgrove. Regardless of the fact that he dropped
Speaker 1: a weight on his toe. Nobody cares, like he's gonna
Speaker 1: be fine, right, and he was. He only missed like
Speaker 1: two starts in April, Like who cares? That was his
Speaker 1: falling draft stock last year was absurd. Now I will
Speaker 1: say this, I am a little bit concerned about going
Speaker 1: into this year because now when you start throwing in
Speaker 1: shoulder issues. I understand they said we expect him to
Speaker 1: be ready for open the season. Everything's fine, but I've
Speaker 1: heard that noise before. Musgrove when he was back was
Speaker 1: Musgrove ninety seven things, ninety seven k's just twenty one walks,
Speaker 1: three point zero five vra a one point one four whip.
Speaker 1: Now the Padres have a little less firepower without Wan
Speaker 1: Soto around, But Musgrove, to me, is one of these guys.
Speaker 1: I am on the fence. I haven't made my final
Speaker 1: decision on how I feel yet. I think it really
Speaker 1: comes to roster construction, which, by the way, you should
Speaker 1: practice your roster construction by running drafts and running all
Speaker 1: the draft simulations over at fantasypros dot com slash mock
Speaker 1: and you can do ten mocks in a half hour,
Speaker 1: like the simulator runs so fast. So again, fancypros dot
Speaker 1: Com slash mock. So use draft Wizard to see what
Speaker 1: kind of pitching staff you're gonna put together. But Welsh,
Speaker 1: what do you think here about Joe Musgrove.
Speaker 2: I am not on the fence, Okay, I am all in.
Speaker 2: All in, there's no build I need to think about
Speaker 2: with Joe Musgrove. So we're in this teary you don't
Speaker 2: really want. Musgrove is like your SP two, But boy,
Speaker 2: I think he is an insane advantage of an SP
Speaker 2: three if you can do it. I mean, there's only
Speaker 2: so many and so you know you can have this
Speaker 2: argument of like hit.
Speaker 1: Their twenty ninth pitcher off like an ECR or maybe
Speaker 1: going off the board like I'm rooking right now on
Speaker 1: fancy ros dot com slash MLB rankings, you could see
Speaker 1: the pictures and where their rank right now in the
Speaker 1: ECR musk Groves at twenty nine. He's ahead of Verlander
Speaker 1: and Biby and he's behind Justin Steele and Bradish. That
Speaker 1: feels about right to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And my point is is like he could be
Speaker 2: at SP two, but from an RPV standpoint, this is
Speaker 2: the SP three of SP three. Is because the other
Speaker 2: thing you mentioned, like, yeah, there's maybe worries here or there,
Speaker 2: but I mean he improved his fastball last year, started
Speaker 2: throwing a change up more three of five pitches over
Speaker 2: thirty percent with rate he still commands the ball. I mean,
Speaker 2: there's a big key to a lot of these undervalued pitchers,
Speaker 2: mostly outside of Snell. There's not big walks. Five percent
Speaker 2: walk rate almost twenty five percent K percentage and expected
Speaker 2: era that's with his era, So that just shows stability.
Speaker 2: I'm in for all of it. And Shilt had said
Speaker 2: that he's gonna have zero restrictions. He is good to go.
Speaker 2: So there's some injury risk. I think that might be
Speaker 2: floating around for some people. But when Musgrove is on,
Speaker 2: he could be a top fifteen pitcher. So this is
Speaker 2: a guy when you want to really focus on this
Speaker 2: undervalued stuff, this is a guy that represents all of it.
Speaker 3: There's a young.
Speaker 2: Players like Yuri Perez where if the innings go up
Speaker 2: high ks, that's all great. But Muskrove has done this before.
Speaker 3: He has been this before.
Speaker 1: He was in the lead, still on the betting board
Speaker 1: for quite some time two years ago. Like I mean,
Speaker 1: he was at the very top of that board for weeks,
Speaker 1: if not months, if memories served. So you're right, if
Speaker 1: you're going to bet on somebody, this is a guy
Speaker 1: to bet on because you know what the upside is
Speaker 1: and I think you nailed it. You're so smart, You're
Speaker 1: not just a pretty face. Welsh is a three. I
Speaker 1: love it as a two. It makes me a little,
Speaker 1: a little skittish, little bit a little worried. Number seven
Speaker 1: on our list today of some of the mid round
Speaker 1: pitching values we've got, this guy is hotter than Hansel
Speaker 1: right now. Cole Ragan's of the Kansas City Royals. The Royals,
Speaker 1: by the way, who just locked up Bobby Wit to
Speaker 1: a very long term contract. Good for him, nothing like
Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty eight million dollars guaranteed to make
Speaker 1: you feel warm and fuzzy inside. But Ragans is a
Speaker 1: player that obviously last year, really you know, it was
Speaker 1: one of the big pickups down the stretch, the fastballs
Speaker 1: at ninety six. It's the change up though that has
Speaker 1: everybody talking a thirty five point six fifth percentage on that.
Speaker 1: So he is a very popular trendy pick and he
Speaker 1: made your list, so you're buying into the trend. Well.
Speaker 2: I think the big thing to talk about too, when
Speaker 2: you're talking about like undervalued, is like who are the
Speaker 2: people that everybody gets excited about and what does that
Speaker 2: value end up being Trig Scouble is an example of
Speaker 2: a player that was wildly great coming off of the
Speaker 2: injury into short sample size last year and he's going
Speaker 2: off like sp ten. Reagan's is a guy that absolutely
Speaker 2: popped when he went to the Royals in the tune
Speaker 2: of a four and a half mile prower increase on
Speaker 2: his fastball. He was throwing at ninety two the year before,
Speaker 2: went up to forty here and I think it was
Speaker 2: the uptick in the slider. Them letting him throw the
Speaker 2: slider because I think that was the issue with the Rangers.
Speaker 3: They weren't.
Speaker 2: That ended up being the highest fifth percentage of any
Speaker 2: pitch he ended up throwing. So he became this new
Speaker 2: pitcher with the Royals. Now what's his biggest fault? It's walks.
Speaker 2: You know, that is a different with him in Trigue Scougle,
Speaker 2: this is a guy that did walk guys over ten
Speaker 2: percent of the time, but he was a completely different
Speaker 2: pitcher as a starter era expected era all plays in
Speaker 2: the fastball looks dominant. He's got four great pitches five
Speaker 2: actually really that are all throwing a double digit percentage
Speaker 2: of the time. But you're on a not super exciting team.
Speaker 3: Why we do.
Speaker 2: This is when you're looking for high, high strikeout guys
Speaker 2: with big potential. I'm actually surprise Reagans isn't higher on
Speaker 2: this list. So I think from this perspective, when Reagans
Speaker 2: is an SP three, he is an undervalue because of
Speaker 2: what he could potentially. He could blow up in your
Speaker 2: face with the walks and royals, could stink and all
Speaker 2: those things that happen. But with all of the chances
Speaker 2: we've got to take, this is great atn SP three.
Speaker 3: Usually we have to pay for these guys's SP two.
Speaker 2: So you want to talk about undervalue, take your risk shots.
Speaker 2: Colt Reagan's definitely fits that mold.
Speaker 1: Next is one of our favorite guys from leading off
Speaker 1: last year, Merle Merril Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks Welsh
Speaker 1: career high in kper nine percentage back to back years
Speaker 1: now with e ra's sub three five whips under one
Speaker 1: point two years in a row here, So it seems
Speaker 1: like Kelly's been a guy these last two seasons that
Speaker 1: has really settled into a groove here and probably continues
Speaker 1: to be one of these guys that does get overlooked.
Speaker 1: I love when you put him on the list because
Speaker 1: to me, he is like the quintessential undervalue guy. I
Speaker 1: can't remember how many times last year we're like, yeah,
Speaker 1: Meryl's gonna go out there and he's gonna, you know,
Speaker 1: put up a quality start and he's gonna keep you
Speaker 1: in the game. And you know in the second half
Speaker 1: two for the Diamond Batch when they made that run
Speaker 1: into the playoffs there, I mean, he was just steady Eddie.
Speaker 1: And I think that's something that fantasy rotations might need
Speaker 1: more than ever. And I love that you put him
Speaker 1: on the list today.
Speaker 3: I mean, you nailed exactly where we're going. So check
Speaker 3: this out. I think this is interesting. Here's a projection.
Speaker 1: Check this out, everybody.
Speaker 2: This picture for seven projected innings eight point seven k
Speaker 2: per nine, a half decent two point six y five
Speaker 2: walk per nine, and essentially.
Speaker 3: A four ERA. That's the first pitcher.
Speaker 2: The next pitcher, Meryl Kelly one hundred and sixty innings
Speaker 2: projected for higher eight point five to six k p nine,
Speaker 2: essentially the same little bit of a higher walk rate
Speaker 2: three three nine, and his era projected much higher than
Speaker 2: what he's performed over the last two years. It's four
Speaker 2: four seven projected. Yet he's had two straight years of
Speaker 2: having a three and a half. That first pitcher was
Speaker 2: Justin Verlander, and a lot of people still want to
Speaker 2: get into the Justin Verlander business. You just said it before,
Speaker 2: and that's the big takeaway I.
Speaker 3: Would do with this. Meryl's just undervalue. He's just an
Speaker 3: undervalued guy.
Speaker 2: He is on a Diamondbacks team that scores tons of runs,
Speaker 2: even though I guess they were kind of a weirdly
Speaker 2: negative run to runs given up last year. But you
Speaker 2: still have this team that is gonna run score runs,
Speaker 2: multiple gold Glovers on it. He's gonna pitch more innings
Speaker 2: than projected. He's got a good shot to walk into
Speaker 2: all of those wins. He gets some strikeouts, doesn't walk
Speaker 2: a bunch of people. He is just a good, baseline
Speaker 2: stabilizing sp that annually just gets overlooked because he's older,
Speaker 2: he's kind of boring, he doesn't pop anywhere else. But
Speaker 2: these are the type of guys that round out You
Speaker 2: know what, you go get Cole Reagan's as your SP three,
Speaker 2: balance him out at SP four with a Merril Kelly.
Speaker 2: That makes him not only undervalued for where you draft him,
Speaker 2: but it can actually make him be more undervalued by
Speaker 2: what he can stabilize with the rest of your rotation.
Speaker 2: So yes, he doesn't pop any specific place. But like
Speaker 2: I said, he's going to get more win opportunities than
Speaker 2: a lot.
Speaker 3: Of other guys.
Speaker 2: He's got a great defense behind him. He's got a fast,
Speaker 2: speedy offense led by Forb and Carroll Katel Marte that
Speaker 2: are going to support him. There's a lot to like
Speaker 2: about Merril Kelly, but he keeps.
Speaker 3: What did you say, it was like sp It's like.
Speaker 1: Forty, yeah, something like that. That's kind of ridiculous when you
Speaker 1: say thirty nine is where he is right now. So
Speaker 1: he's two spots ahead of the next guy. And the
Speaker 1: word stable is not one that you would use to
Speaker 1: describe Carlos Rodon. I don't think that's a good word
Speaker 1: in the vocabulary there. Most of last year he only
Speaker 1: turned in sixty four innings total and a six eight
Speaker 1: five ERA along with it. If you remember when he
Speaker 1: did eventually pitch, I remember two starts, specifically in September one,
Speaker 1: where he had ten strikeouts and seven innings against the
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Pirates there and things went very well, and then
Speaker 1: two starts later, his final start of the year gave
Speaker 1: up eight earned runs and zero zero outs in that
Speaker 1: zero So that's a tough one for me. Carls Rodan,
Speaker 1: I get it. I understand it's like, hey, once you
Speaker 1: get out of the top forty, you're throwing darts. But
Speaker 1: to me, forty one is very hot. I understand. A
Speaker 1: couple of years ago the guy you know turned in
Speaker 1: back to back really good seasons. There, I get it,
Speaker 1: but he has been such an enigma for so long.
Speaker 1: Mitch Keller's going after him, Michael King's going after him.
Speaker 1: I'd rather make investments in those guys. But why is
Speaker 1: Rodon a guy that you think people should pay attention
Speaker 1: to in drafts?
Speaker 2: Well, I think the main thing is just where the
Speaker 2: return can get us too, and it's risky. But let's
Speaker 2: go back to just for a second. We're going to
Speaker 2: go back to the bat and we're gonna look at
Speaker 2: actually we're on steamer rope, but well, you know, we'll
Speaker 2: do steamer here for a second, because this will really
Speaker 2: make my point home. Steamer projections using the auction calculator
Speaker 2: puts Carlos Redon out at a almost twenty dollars value
Speaker 2: the fourteenth sp higher than logan web, higher than Corbyn
Speaker 2: burns higher than Max Freed.
Speaker 3: Now I'll just do it live on here. What do
Speaker 3: you want ATC or the bat?
Speaker 1: Give me, give me whatever floats your boat. I'm guy, okay,
Speaker 1: I like everyone. You're just like, yeah, you know how
Speaker 1: much I love projections anyway, such a yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean that is definitely part of the conversation here.
Speaker 2: So when you get a little bit more granular, we're
Speaker 2: pushing back a little bit. Redon now On ATC is
Speaker 2: a seven dollars projection, and I think what some of
Speaker 2: the worries are is where the performance was last year.
Speaker 2: But a fully healthy Carlos Redon. So you can see
Speaker 2: there's really wide variance here. But he did not have
Speaker 2: a decrease in the.
Speaker 3: Fastball, which is a positive.
Speaker 2: His slider was literally the same eighty five point four
Speaker 2: high wift rate.
Speaker 3: It's health. It's health with him, there.
Speaker 1: Has always been hene two years, it's been health.
Speaker 2: Okay, But sometimes we have to consider that undervalued players
Speaker 2: can also have massive risk.
Speaker 1: Sure not just if he's undervalued enough. I guess that's
Speaker 1: my part, okay, But what was the SP's not? He's
Speaker 1: right now over on Fantasy pros of the ECR he
Speaker 1: is the forty first pitcher and the next guy we're
Speaker 1: gonna talk about is at forty two, and I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take that next guy every single time and twice on Sunday.
Speaker 2: And that might be the case. Radon is motivated, His
Speaker 2: pitches are still in line. It is the health that's
Speaker 2: always in question. Like I mentioned, you've got really great
Speaker 2: run support that is going to be behind him with
Speaker 2: Won Soto and Aaron Judge. Wins might be there. The
Speaker 2: strikeouts should end up being there. But the bad performance
Speaker 2: showed its face early on last year. But prior to
Speaker 2: this crappy little run he had in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: he had had two straight years of a thirty three
Speaker 2: or higher percent walk percentage and expected ERA in the
Speaker 2: two two six's walks that were two to three percent
Speaker 2: lower than it was last year. So this could just
Speaker 2: blow up and he's done and he's completely done. But
Speaker 2: you know you got a guy that is finally healthy,
Speaker 2: motivated Yankee support. Anything outside the top thirty, I think
Speaker 2: you can take shots. Carlos Redon win, good and healthy
Speaker 2: is the top twenty sp that's the major question. So
Speaker 2: why is he undervalued because of where that return can
Speaker 2: go similar to Joe Musgrove. Why is he ranked where
Speaker 2: he is? Massive injury risk, way more of a risk,
Speaker 2: by the way than Joe Musgrove. So I want Joe Musgrove.
Speaker 2: And every single time I've taken Radon all over the place,
Speaker 2: because where can you find thirty plus thirty percent k
Speaker 2: percentage pitchers out there?
Speaker 1: Almost thirty plus starts And I was gonna have to
Speaker 1: come over and reach it.
Speaker 2: Nat starts, but thirty percentage or more thirty plus you can't,
Speaker 2: and you don't. You don't find that anywhere outside the
Speaker 2: top thirty sps or it's very minimal.
Speaker 1: Radon you can, Yeah, just looking through the games pitched
Speaker 1: Carlos Rodan.
Speaker 3: Right now, you're gonna be mean.
Speaker 1: Now I'm not gonna be mean. I'm in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1: He made thirty one starts. It is great. He was
Speaker 1: brilliant a year before in twenty twenty one. I sat
Speaker 1: on this show here and he had a really good spring,
Speaker 1: and I kept telling everybody, Hey, it costs you nothing
Speaker 1: to draft Carlos Rodan, and he returned a great season,
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty five strikeouts in one hundred and
Speaker 1: thirty two winnings. But even that great season was miss time.
Speaker 1: He did miss more than half a dozen starts. So
Speaker 1: that's my thing. I just I like Rodan's not enough
Speaker 1: a discount for me and the.
Speaker 2: Guy thintyning one hundred and forty innings from him, based
Speaker 2: on who he's been in the past, will return plus some.
Speaker 1: In the season long roto Yes, I play in more
Speaker 1: head to head formats. So the head to head, when
Speaker 1: you're missing that guy for a month, it kicks you
Speaker 1: right in the rear end.
Speaker 3: Are you missing in the playoffs that's the.
Speaker 1: Or even worse down the stretch, or or maybe even
Speaker 1: worse than that, giving up eight earned runs without getting
Speaker 1: it out in your last start of the season, that
Speaker 1: would be u That would be poor. Anyway, maybe I
Speaker 1: teased it before. Who's the guy I'm gonna take every
Speaker 1: time over Carlsordan. It's another Minnesota twin. It's Bailey Ober.
Speaker 1: I wrote about him in the Black Book. I did
Speaker 1: all the picture profiles. Go check it out on Amazon
Speaker 1: right now. It's out there right now. Welsh and myself,
Speaker 1: Kelly Kirby, all of your favorite people contributing this year.
Speaker 1: But look, my big takeaway with Ober was the five
Speaker 1: to one strikeout to walk rate. I mean, the guy
Speaker 1: was just brilliant. One hundred and forty four innings last year.
Speaker 1: He was tough to square up. He only had seven
Speaker 1: point eight hits per nine. He had nine point one
Speaker 1: k per nine, a one point eight walk per nine.
Speaker 1: The guy was awesome. The three four to three era
Speaker 1: was there. Now the FIP was a little higher at
Speaker 1: three point nine to six. But again, you know, I
Speaker 1: think this is still a picture who you haven't seen
Speaker 1: the best out of yet, and that's what makes me
Speaker 1: excited for Bailey Ober. And he made the list that
Speaker 1: you put together, so you must be excited too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think I slept a little early,
Speaker 2: like in the early like November ish range. I do
Speaker 2: a lot of focus. By the way, my stuff in
Speaker 2: the Black Book is all infield and then a lot
Speaker 2: of strategy stuff, so outfielders starting pitchers end up coming
Speaker 2: to me a little bit later as I continue to
Speaker 2: do my work. But Bailey Over is just one of
Speaker 2: those guys that pops, especially like early NFBC drafts, he
Speaker 2: started to see him go really good with solid wifth
Speaker 2: percentages where it shows like twenty seven, twenty nine, thirty
Speaker 2: two on his most used pitches. He's low velocity ninety one,
Speaker 2: but it's built on command. Three straight years of walk
Speaker 2: percentage that was top ten percent in the league. And
Speaker 2: an interesting thing though, the strikeout numbers twenty five percent
Speaker 2: K percentage don't look insane. The chase rate, so I
Speaker 2: just mentioned the with rate was twenty eight point seven,
Speaker 2: which was like top thirty percent of the league. His
Speaker 2: chase rate of guys chasing on him thirty three point five,
Speaker 2: which was top nine percentile in the league. So he's
Speaker 2: got guys just flying all over and you do that
Speaker 2: by pitching to solid command, not walking a lot of
Speaker 2: guys three and a half ra We've seen the Twins
Speaker 2: do really good stuff on just overall pitching development. I'm
Speaker 2: here for it, and I'm here for you know, he
Speaker 2: did a slight alteration this year of throwing his change
Speaker 2: up over his slider, and I think that made his
Speaker 2: slider maybe even a little bit more effective. So I'm
Speaker 2: here for Bailey over. I love these guys with that
Speaker 2: low walk, solid innings, get your wins.
Speaker 3: I love these type of guys. And he is three
Speaker 3: ninety nine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good price. Last time I checked. So
Speaker 1: some great names on the list here that Welsh has
Speaker 1: put together. Again, we agree on most of them, but
Speaker 1: we like to hear from you. Who do you agree with?
Speaker 1: Who are you in on? You like Bailey Ober, you
Speaker 1: think Carlos Rodon is just the right price? I want
Speaker 1: to hear from you, guys. Drop your comments below in
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel if you haven't already, subscribe to Fantasy
Speaker 1: pros MLB because it's the best baseball YouTube channel on
Speaker 1: the planet right now. Plus we're gonna be every single
Speaker 1: day when the season starts as always with leading off
Speaker 1: with Welsh myself and all the Peanuts and the Cracker
Speaker 1: Jacks and joining us every single day live. You can live,
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Speaker 1: We talk fantasy, we talk betting, we talk baseball, we
Speaker 1: talk everything. Maybe some X Men stuff will be in
Speaker 1: there too. You just never know with us. But this
Speaker 1: is a great list and also here on the channel
Speaker 1: when you subscribe and drop your comments below and ring
Speaker 1: the bell for notifications too, because we've got the short
Speaker 1: form content also the top ten lists, so many fun things,
Speaker 1: big guests. We just had Ariel Conan, We have Lad Seddler,
Speaker 1: onto the best and brightest minds of the fantasy baseball
Speaker 1: community and us we're here too, so again we want
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Speaker 1: subscribe to Fantasy Bros MLB. That'll do it for us,
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh.
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Ah
Speaker 1: nice throwing the card. Well done.