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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody in too Fantasy Pros. This is a

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball podcast. It's me Joey Page, Joe Pi Zapia,

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Speaker 1: and today the Welsh and I are going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the ten most undervalued early to mid round starting pitchers.

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Speaker 1: Because pitching has become a little bit of a Rubik's

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Speaker 1: cube the last few years, and sometimes you can cheat

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Speaker 1: and take the stickers off, and sometimes you can't. Welsh

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Speaker 1: and I are going to try our best here to

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Speaker 1: solve the puzzle that is the pitcher category in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. Welsh, I know that we've talked a lot

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Speaker 1: about our pitching strategy the last few years. Last year

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Speaker 1: I was very much in the let's buy in bulk,

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Speaker 1: let's let the top guys fade. Feels like more than ever,

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Speaker 1: some of the top guys just aren't even there. It's

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Speaker 1: not nearly as deep as it once was. It feels

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Speaker 1: like we're gonna be buying in bulk again. And I

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Speaker 1: think this group that we're talking about really encapsulates some

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Speaker 1: of those names. I think are really going to help

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Speaker 1: people assemble rotations because now it's not just about having

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Speaker 1: that one guy at the top in fantasy or maybe

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Speaker 1: even two. It's about really having depth of that rotation

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Speaker 1: because you know guys are going to miss time. You know,

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Speaker 1: people aren't throwing two hundred innings anymore. Those are you know,

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Speaker 1: those days are long gone. So we want to get

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Speaker 1: the quality and you think some of these names on

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Speaker 1: this list today can give us that.

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Speaker 2: I think what we're looking at is we're looking at

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Speaker 2: primary SP twos and SP threes like under Maybe that's

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Speaker 2: even the way for you guys to consume the title

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Speaker 2: of this is undervalued SP twos and threes, because I

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Speaker 2: think parts of the upper list of who the guys

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Speaker 2: were going to talk about, they would the very first

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Speaker 2: guy would be actually a great number two. If you're

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Speaker 2: talking about RPP, you're talking about relative position value of

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Speaker 2: that spot and SP two what do.

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Speaker 3: They actually perform at?

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Speaker 2: So I think we're gonna have the first four or

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Speaker 2: five work really well as SP twos or solid undervalued

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Speaker 2: SP twos, and then we get into the SP three

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Speaker 2: market because yeah, there's a bunch of different ways that

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Speaker 2: the pocket aces strategy. I don't want to say it's

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Speaker 2: dead because it'll be someone out there.

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Speaker 3: That's like, well, well, let me tell you.

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Speaker 2: You know, fleeing and and they'll be like Gambit, They'll

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Speaker 2: be like fling fling pocket ass, but it's dead.

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Speaker 3: It's dead, like nobody.

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Speaker 1: Does it anymore ready for reference, first one was on

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Speaker 1: the other day where he's like Cyclops Storm and what's

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Speaker 1: your name? And he turns to Patrick Stewart he goes,

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Speaker 1: what's your name? Wheels.

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Speaker 2: That's a great it's a great lot x men is

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Speaker 2: that's my all time thing. We need a graphics team

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Speaker 2: where if I ever do that, we can just light

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Speaker 2: up a card and pocket. But the whole point was

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Speaker 2: for that positionally, like pocket ases are ideally it's kind

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Speaker 2: of dead, but you're wanting to like live in the

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Speaker 2: top probably twelve to fifteen SP and then you're gonna

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Speaker 2: most likely look for at least two in that SP

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Speaker 2: twenty to thirty five range. So we're gonna talk about

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Speaker 2: some of those undervalued guys here.

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Speaker 1: And draft season is already upon us, folks, and we

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Speaker 1: are here. Draft prep is on and fantasypros dot Com

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Speaker 1: Slash Draft Kit as you cover. The draft kit is free.

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Speaker 1: It's available right now, so run don't walk to fantasybros

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Speaker 1: dot Com Slash Draft Kit today and start utilizing all

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Speaker 1: the tools here at Fantasy Pros, and of course make

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Speaker 1: sure you sink your leagues as well. Make sure you're

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Speaker 1: utilizing all the tools not just for the draft, but

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Speaker 1: for the end season management as well that we have

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Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros. It is huge. It's a game changer.

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Speaker 1: So sink your league for free today over Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 1: All your leagues and all your places. And remember you

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Speaker 1: could set all your lineups from one spot using the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros app. That's pretty amazing. Let's start with the

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Speaker 1: first guy on our list, and it's Blake Snell of

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Speaker 1: the Well. I don't know because it is two twenty

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Speaker 1: two pm on the sixth of February and he still

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Speaker 1: doesn't have a team. A pretty good season for Blake Snell.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, I still have it in place.

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Speaker 3: To play, to find a home.

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Speaker 1: He sounds a lot like the guy who wants to

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Speaker 1: have pocket hass. I'm just saying last year, coming off

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Speaker 1: a season with two hundred and thirty four strikeouts, he

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Speaker 1: did walk ninety nine guys though, so still some up

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Speaker 1: and down. But this is a guy who has now

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Speaker 1: too cy Young's to his resume. And then a lot

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Speaker 1: of ifs in between, and I think that's kind of

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Speaker 1: why you're seeing what the ADP you're seeing for Blake Snell.

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Speaker 1: I imagine at some point though it's going to tick up.

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Speaker 1: Right now, the ECR has him at seventy overall, But

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Speaker 1: at the same time, Welsh, I think when he does

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Speaker 1: sign it, if he signed with the contender, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: see this ADP change. What's your take on Blake Snell's

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Speaker 1: value regardless of the landing spot.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you nailed it.

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Speaker 2: He's definitely being undervalued because people are like, well, I

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Speaker 2: don't know where he is, and I think a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are.

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Speaker 3: Gonna end up making that case of like, well, you know.

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Speaker 2: Wherever he goes, probably not like Blake Snell is a

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Speaker 2: unique character across the board, as many people have noted.

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Speaker 2: In this offseason, we had this really hilarious debate that happened.

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Speaker 2: It was almost an argument fight of our friends Nick

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Speaker 2: Pollock and Ino Seras, where Nick was just not about

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Speaker 2: that Blake Snell life and Eno was about that Blake

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Speaker 2: Snell life. And what came from a lot of this

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Speaker 2: was the walk numbers are worrisome, but it's also part

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Speaker 2: of his strategy and how he attacks, So it's not

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Speaker 2: gonna help your whip or anything like that, but it's

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Speaker 2: an upper tier strikeout. I mean, he has had six

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Speaker 2: straight years of over thirty percent K percentage. He just

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Speaker 2: had a two low two two two point two five ERA,

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Speaker 2: two straight years of an expected ERA that was under four,

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Speaker 2: which is great. This is a more mature pitcher, and

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Speaker 2: he made some big changes, specifically the change up that

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Speaker 2: was something everyone was very critical about. Through it five

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Speaker 2: percent of the time in twenty twenty two. This past year,

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Speaker 2: it became his third most used pitch at eighteen percent.

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Speaker 3: Of the time.

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Speaker 2: And guess what, Blake Snell three of four pitches used,

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Speaker 2: which are all over ten percent, had a forty six

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Speaker 2: or higher percent with rate. I know a lot of

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Speaker 2: people will talk specifically and like swinging strike rate, and

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Speaker 2: we know the k's are up there, but I just

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Speaker 2: like to point out fifty plus is elite.

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Speaker 3: You rarely see.

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Speaker 2: I think the only guy that had a higher WIF

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Speaker 2: percentage on a pitch that I'm recalling off the top

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Speaker 2: of my brain was Senga's ghost fork. He's got two

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Speaker 2: that are over fifty and another that's at forty six.

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Speaker 2: So it's high strikeout percentage. He has learned his usage

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Speaker 2: and in theory with the teams that are out there,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of markets that would work well. If

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Speaker 2: he did go to his hometown in Seattle. We would

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Speaker 2: love that we could manage with the Angels. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's like an inferior ballpark if he were to

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Speaker 2: go there. So you chase your strikeouts. Hopefully he goes

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Speaker 2: to a team that can put up some wins, but

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Speaker 2: he's being un undervalued for the strikeouts that you get

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Speaker 2: and for all the critical stuff about the walks to

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Speaker 2: low to e erra.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna take Blake Snell M.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I'm going to be chase in the

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Speaker 1: sub three e R. But I do agree also that,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think that not only Blake Snell, I

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Speaker 1: think has you know, figured some things out last year,

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Speaker 1: maybe some more consistency going forward. He's also not the

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Speaker 1: kind of guy personality wise that I think is going

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Speaker 1: to press. You know, sometimes we see these guys a

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Speaker 1: free agent signed big deals and they press a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I don't get that sense with Blake Snell that he

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Speaker 1: is going to be worried too much about that. I

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Speaker 1: think he's gonna go home, hang out, play video games,

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Speaker 1: go pitch, and he's just gonna be Blake Snell no

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Speaker 1: matter what dream.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if he.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of our friend Nick Pollock. I know you and

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Speaker 1: I both did Pitchcon a couple weeks ago, which was great.

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Speaker 1: If you haven't, you can go donate over there the

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Speaker 1: Als Drive. I'm still sure they're taking money over there

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Speaker 1: for that. But I did a little roast of Nick

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Speaker 1: Pollock and I said, he looks like the guy who

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Speaker 1: runs a New York coffee shop and if you've been

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Speaker 1: there too long, sitting there doing work, he asks you

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Speaker 1: to either order another latte or leave. Don't you think

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Speaker 1: that's the Nick Pollock where he's like, Hi, excuse me, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you've been here for two hours and you've only had

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Speaker 1: one coffee, so I'm gonna need you to order another one.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you're calling him a hipster. I think it's what

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Speaker 3: you're doing.

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Speaker 1: I love you, Nick. I can't wait to have you

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Speaker 1: back on the show, buddy. All right, let's get to

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Speaker 1: Nick always comes on.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure he's excited to come back.

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Speaker 1: Yaf thrilled. I'm excited for our next guy. He is

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Speaker 1: Zach Efflin. Look at that transition. Always pay attention, folks

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Speaker 1: do whenever the Rays get a reclamation project. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, EVE been doing this for like a

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Speaker 1: decade now, and it's always the same thing. So e

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Speaker 1: Flyn's a guy with a four ERA in his career.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, what happens. He goes to Tampa,

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Speaker 1: that era gets knocked down by half a run. He

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Speaker 1: has an incredible run of one hundred and eighty six strikeouts,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy seven eights, win sixteen games, pitches

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Speaker 1: in a good ballpark. He had the whip of one

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Speaker 1: point zero two. I mean the x FIP was three

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Speaker 1: point one two. So it's not fluky stuff here we're

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Speaker 1: talking about. We're talking about a guy who really made

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Speaker 1: some great strides, and right now in the ECR Efflyn

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Speaker 1: is still just barely outside of the top twenty pitchers.

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Speaker 1: And to me, that makes him a value.

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Speaker 3: It does make him a value.

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Speaker 2: And one of the wild things have been projections in general.

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Speaker 2: I might be screwing this number up, But guess what,

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Speaker 2: you guys can go and double check it out. If

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Speaker 2: you go over to fangraphs, you can check out via

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Speaker 2: their different projections the Auction Calculator and I believe Zach

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Speaker 2: Effln via the BAT, which is Derek Carty's projections, he's

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Speaker 2: like the twelfth best dollar return of any single picture,

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Speaker 2: so essentially lining him.

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Speaker 3: Up as the twelfth.

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Speaker 2: I believe ATC has him between eleven and thirteen. Regardless,

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Speaker 2: he's projecting out as a top fifteen pitcher in every

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Speaker 2: single projection. By the way, ATC was voted the best

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Speaker 2: who we had Ariolan go check out the projections episode.

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Speaker 2: He was voted the most accurate system of an aggregate

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Speaker 2: or of any Derek Carty was the best singular non

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Speaker 2: aggregated system, so I am referencing both the two best

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Speaker 2: on the market.

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Speaker 3: If you look at projections, they've got him.

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Speaker 2: BAT has him at round eight and a half k

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Speaker 2: per nine under two walks per nine, but not projecting

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Speaker 2: a big jump in innings, which is interesting because he

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Speaker 2: just put up one hundred and seventy seven but really

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Speaker 2: great K minus walk percentage three percent walk rate last

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Speaker 2: year twenty six and a half strikeout rate. He overperformed

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Speaker 2: his expected era, so he had a three and a

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Speaker 2: half the ra the expected was three and as you mentioned.

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Speaker 3: The Rays just do great things with people.

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Speaker 2: They like to add cutters, and that actually might kind

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Speaker 2: of open up the ballgame even more if the usage

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Speaker 2: goes up. He ended up using that more this past

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Speaker 2: year at twenty six percent. His curve ball was the

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Speaker 2: big strikeout option. But this guy will throw five or

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Speaker 2: six pitches. They're gonna manage the innings properly. Great defense

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Speaker 2: behind him, and like you said, the Rays work magic.

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Speaker 2: Every projections love him. He's a safe option. Guess what

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Speaker 2: I like a lot this year. I like, even though

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Speaker 2: we just talked about Blakes now, I like low walk

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Speaker 2: guys Logan Web, George Kurbier, and Zach Eflin because if

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Speaker 2: you have one minor change and you go from a

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Speaker 2: low like let's just say, I know people want K

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Speaker 2: percentage or K per nine, but let's just go with

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Speaker 2: K percentage kate per nine. If you have like an

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Speaker 2: eight and a half strikeouts per nine innings and you're

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Speaker 2: super low walk, if you jump over nine, you make

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Speaker 2: one big adjustment. You might go from being a solid

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Speaker 2: pitcher to an elite pitcher, right because of Ratio's innings wins, strikeouts.

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Speaker 2: So I love guys like that, and that's who eflyn

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Speaker 2: is and he good day.

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Speaker 1: That's good pitching. Good picion is not putting guys on base,

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Speaker 1: not trying to work out of jams, especially if you

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Speaker 1: don't have the dominant stuff quote unquote for strikeouts. You know,

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Speaker 1: if you can limit that, like the you know, the

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Speaker 1: Logan Webs of the world and some of these other guys,

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Speaker 1: you are going to put yourself in a better position

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Speaker 1: to win. If you are a tough pitcher to hit

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Speaker 1: to begin with, and you can limit your walks, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna have success in the big league level if you

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Speaker 1: have all the other intangible things there. Before we get

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Speaker 1: to the next guy too, don't forget it's not just

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Speaker 1: dot com slash Fantasy Pros fan Tracks, the home of

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Speaker 1: fantasy sports. Joe Ryan is going to have a home

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Speaker 1: on a lot of my fantasy teams. I know last

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Speaker 1: year was kind of a tale of two halves. The

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Speaker 1: first half a three point seven zero ERA over his

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Speaker 1: first eighteen starts. The guy was fantastic. I know, I

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Speaker 1: had him in a bunch of spots. I was loving life.

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Speaker 1: Strikeout rate was high over ten point four k's per nine.

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Speaker 1: Then the second half came an ERA balloon to six.

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Speaker 1: We know we missed some time there with an injury,

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Speaker 1: only fifty four innings in the second half too. Now,

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Speaker 1: the strikeout rate was still high with that whip balloon

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Speaker 1: to one point four to a two. So Joe Ryan

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Speaker 1: bounced back, Candidate Welsh, I say yes, what say you? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I mean bounce back might even not be the term,

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Speaker 2: Like he already kind of bounced in. He's's going to

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Speaker 2: be more jibbli bounces that are coming. Last year he

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Speaker 2: ended up getting rid of that change up and no

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Speaker 2: longer being like a five to six type of pitcher.

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Speaker 2: Four pitches he honed in on three of them he

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Speaker 2: threw double digit percentage of the time. The three that

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Speaker 2: he threw double digits or more. They all had an

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Speaker 2: increase in with percentage. And what's the one He lowered

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Speaker 2: his slider, which just dropped a little bit being uneffective.

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Speaker 2: That was actually the pitch he threw the second most,

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Speaker 2: So he incorporated a sweeper. The split finger was a

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Speaker 2: big change. It almost doubled in strikeout percentage. He was

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Speaker 2: elite almost top ten percent a league in strikeout rate

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Speaker 2: twenty nine point three. That's a big k percentage. Low

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Speaker 2: walks again five point one. He overperformed his expected ERA

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Speaker 2: by a full run, so that means he had a

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Speaker 2: four and a half ERA, which is stinky, but an

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Speaker 2: expected three point five three, which would have been second

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Speaker 2: best of his career. I love what the Twins have

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Speaker 2: just in general been doing. He found a way to

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Speaker 2: cover every point of the zone. I think he needs

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Speaker 2: to get that sweeper a little bit out more, because

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Speaker 2: if you go and look at his zone chart, fastballs

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Speaker 2: up top, split fingers on the bottom, the main slider

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Speaker 2: is over on this kind of inside corner and the

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Speaker 2: sweeper wasn't hitting enough outside. So I think that's like

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Speaker 2: maybe an easy fix to being even more effective for

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Speaker 2: a guy that's already massively high on strikeouts, and he's

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Speaker 2: not a burner. He's actually similar to who the hell

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Speaker 2: were we just talking about. Let's say Eflin, Yeah, e Flyn.

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Speaker 2: E Flyn throws around ninety two. That's how Joe Ryan is.

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Speaker 2: But it's command. It's being able to pinpoint those pitches

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Speaker 2: with not having any rough walks.

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Speaker 3: Five percent walk rate.

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Speaker 2: I love Joe Ryan. Joe Ryan is an example of

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Speaker 2: the player that has the low walks with great probably

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Speaker 2: one of the best strikeout numbers besides Blake Stell on

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Speaker 2: this list. The only problem was the era overperformed what

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Speaker 2: it should have done. So that's a maybe a key

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Speaker 2: tell that there might be a lot of improvement this year.

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Speaker 2: And where he's going, what did we say, It's like

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Speaker 2: around twenty something of sps or twenty fives.

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Speaker 1: Right now on the consensus looking at Joe Ryan, he

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Speaker 1: is twenty fourth starting pitcher right now ranked, So legit,

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Speaker 1: this is the last strikeout exactly. I think he's closer

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Speaker 1: to fifteen than he is to twenty five, and right

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Speaker 1: now you're getting him closer to twenty five. So this

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Speaker 1: might be the last time you get that. Because if

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Speaker 1: let's say he was hurt for the whole second half Welsh.

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Speaker 1: He's a top twenty pitcher. Right. Let's say if he

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Speaker 1: didn't have those bad eleven starts that really dragged everything

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Speaker 1: down a little bit, absence makes the Hartcrow fonder. You

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Speaker 1: and I both know we'd be looking at saying, oh, well,

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Speaker 1: you know he's healthy, everything's fine. You know what, forget it,

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Speaker 1: let's just jump back in. So I'm not gonna let

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Speaker 1: it bother me too much. I think this is the

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Speaker 1: last time you get a discount like that on Joe Ryan.

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Speaker 1: The next guy on our list, The fourth guy we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about here is Uri Perez of the

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Speaker 1: Miami Marlins. Perez last year dominated the minor leagues, then

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Speaker 1: came up into the big league level and certainly made

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Speaker 1: his presence known. Ninety one innings, he was only five

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Speaker 1: and six, but he did have one hundred and eight

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Speaker 1: strikeouts and a three one five ERA in a one

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Speaker 1: point one to three whip. Now, some of the secondary

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Speaker 1: deeper numbers there will suggest that the ERA should have

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Speaker 1: been a little higher. That's fair. It's a young pitcher.

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Speaker 1: Innings will be a question, but upside is enormous. I

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Speaker 1: think the Marlins team we all agree is going to be,

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Speaker 1: you know, another work in progress, even though they overachieved

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Speaker 1: last year. Do you think that Uri Perez is a

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Speaker 1: little too much hype or do you think he is

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Speaker 1: one of these guys that's still technically undervalued despite having

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Speaker 1: never pitched a full season in the big leagues yet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I still think undervalued is the way to look

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Speaker 2: at it.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: The worry or the reason you can make the argument

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Speaker 2: on the other side is he's still young. You know,

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Speaker 2: they might say how much are they going to limit innings?

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Speaker 2: He's only projected, and again, like I guess you don't

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Speaker 2: want to cherry pick projections, but there's also things that

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm not sure projections do super well. I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure I would pinpoint innings pitched as something that I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna like, what is their marker off of just maybe

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Speaker 2: baseline percentages Because they're projecting him around one to twenty two.

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Speaker 3: They maintained him pretty well last year. I think he

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Speaker 3: legit gets to one.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why he couldn't get to one fifty

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Speaker 2: unless they had really big injury warriors, which really don't

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Speaker 2: exist out there. Projections got him over ten k per nine,

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Speaker 2: which is elite I think they have a hard time

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Speaker 2: projecting overall wins. But you're looking at one of the

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Speaker 2: bigger strikeout guys in the league. It was almost top

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Speaker 2: ten percent out of overall K percentage twenty eight point

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Speaker 2: nine with percentage top seven percent in the league, good

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00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 2: chase rate, kIPS low batting average, and is a fireball

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Speaker 2: fastball guy that can throw at really any point in

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Speaker 2: the zone average almost ninety eight, was ninety seven and

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Speaker 2: a half, but huge secondary pitches. He doesn't get the

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Speaker 2: strikeouts off the fastball, gets off the slider in the curveball.

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Speaker 2: And as we know, this organization develops change ups phenomenally

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Speaker 2: with an offseason, maybe working with Sandy Sandy and they

397
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Speaker 2: got anything else to do, Tommy John, you get a

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Speaker 2: forty six percent with rate on that change up last year.

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be.

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Speaker 2: Shocked to see it jump up. This is another pitcher

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Speaker 2: three of his four pitches forty six or higher with

402
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Speaker 2: percentage and has less of a walk issue than you

403
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Speaker 2: have with like a Blake Snell. So I think the

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Speaker 2: only thing that holds people back are the innings projection.

405
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Speaker 2: I'm just not going to let that hurt me. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it could hurt a little bit in head to head roto.

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Speaker 2: I'm still golden, but I'm less worried than everybody else is.

408
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Speaker 2: If the Marlins are winning some games, He's going to

409
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Speaker 2: keep going and he easily can put up top twenty

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Speaker 2: SP numbers this year.

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Speaker 1: The next guy on our list last year was a

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Speaker 1: darling in the Fantasy Baseball analyst community, but he got

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Speaker 1: off to a very rough start. In fact, in April

414
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Speaker 1: he had an ERA above six. After that it was

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Speaker 1: really smooth sailing for Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. Now

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Speaker 1: Bradish finished the season very strong, one hundred and sixty

417
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Speaker 1: eight total innings, same number of strikeouts. They are just

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Speaker 1: forty four walks, a terrific kya walk ratio two point

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Speaker 1: eight three ERA one point zero four whips. So Bradish

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Speaker 1: is in the grid spot here now. And now that

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Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns, who you know, we could talk about that

422
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Speaker 1: real briefly too. I mean, you're getting a real number

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Speaker 1: one at the front of that rotation. Takes a lot

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Speaker 1: of pressure off Bradish, off Grays and Rodriguez. Now they

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Speaker 1: could just let Corbyn Burns be the ace and just

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Speaker 1: continue to do their thing. But Bradish, I know a

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Speaker 1: lot of people were panicking last year in April. Once

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Speaker 1: he got right, my god, was he good? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: People you got like massive value if people were cutting him,

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Speaker 2: and there a lot of people did.

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Speaker 1: They freaked out, they cut they trade, it was it

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Speaker 1: was bad. And then rightfully sat with six era, people

433
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,320
Speaker 1: are gonna start to panic. No offense and you can.

434
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,360
Speaker 2: Also worry like, oh bullpen without Felix, it's a little

435
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 2: bit worse. But they did bring in kimberl Cano is

436
00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 2: going to be put back into that non full on

437
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 2: leverage situation.

438
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:45,160
Speaker 3: So I still think that's good.

439
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,439
Speaker 2: Less pressure with Corbyn burns there. This was a solid

440
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 2: strikeout guy, decently low walks. Still, even though he overperformed

441
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 2: his expected era, he had a sub three era, it

442
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 2: was still into the like mid threes. And what he

443
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 2: did was he just made a concerted effort as a

444
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,880
Speaker 2: lot of teams should do as you evaluate pitches the

445
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,399
Speaker 2: previous year. The pitchy through the most was a fastball.

446
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 2: It had like a seventeen percent withft rate. Fastballs usually

447
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,719
Speaker 2: don't have really good with rates on it. And then

448
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 2: he was solid on sliders and curveballs. And by the way,

449
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 2: with rates are not just like swinging strikes, but also

450
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,159
Speaker 2: just people burning through pitches.

451
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 3: So what did he do this past year. He made

452
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:20,960
Speaker 3: the top pitch be.

453
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 2: The slider, and we've actually seen players find a benefit

454
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 2: to this. Hunter Green kind of revamped his career by

455
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 2: being able to throw a slider as much or more

456
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,640
Speaker 2: than the fastball, and that's what Bradish ended up doing.

457
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,239
Speaker 2: So he threw over thirty percent of the time a

458
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 2: slider that upticked his WIF percent should a thirty six

459
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 2: and a half percent with rate, which was higher than

460
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 2: the year before. And then he used the fastball and

461
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: the sinker to set everything else up and then still

462
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,880
Speaker 2: drop a curveball in that also had a thirty five

463
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,360
Speaker 2: percent with rate, which was an way big improvement from

464
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 2: the year prior. So he implements ground balls, he doesn't

465
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 2: walk a ton, gets good strike strikes overall, gets strikeouts.

466
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 2: You've got more support in the staff, and he got

467
00:19:58,320 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 2: a great young team that's going to.

468
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 3: Help the defensively.

469
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 2: All the things work great, but he's a boring name

470
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 2: that people are like, I don't know about Bradish. That's

471
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 2: why he's undervalued because he's not being given the dues

472
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:09,200
Speaker 2: for I think.

473
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: Maybe weird, maybe just takes people to longer to get

474
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 1: on board with the Orioles because they've been so so

475
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,160
Speaker 1: much of a non participant in the last ten years,

476
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 1: really so.

477
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 3: But they've had great development, that's the thing that well.

478
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 1: They have now, but on the past, I mean, I

479
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 1: think it's hard to break the cycle of the Dylan

480
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: Bundies and the Jake Arietas and the Kevin Gosman's of

481
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 1: all these people back in the past that you had

482
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 1: that you didn't develop. And now people are a little skittish,

483
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 1: and I get it, but you shouldn't be when it

484
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 1: comes to something.

485
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: He gave Orioles fans absolute anxiety by bringing up his names.

486
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 1: Just sorry if they're like, oh god, well, I mean,

487
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 1: you know, hey, but see, it's all true. I mean,

488
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 1: he was the number one pitching prospect once upon a time.

489
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 1: I'm old enough to remember that. I'm also old enough

490
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 1: to remember when I was telling everybody last year to

491
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 1: draft Joe Musgrove. Regardless of the fact that he dropped

492
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 1: a weight on his toe. Nobody cares, like he's gonna

493
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 1: be fine, right, and he was. He only missed like

494
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 1: two starts in April, Like who cares? That was his

495
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 1: falling draft stock last year was absurd. Now I will

496
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,479
Speaker 1: say this, I am a little bit concerned about going

497
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 1: into this year because now when you start throwing in

498
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: shoulder issues. I understand they said we expect him to

499
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 1: be ready for open the season. Everything's fine, but I've

500
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 1: heard that noise before. Musgrove when he was back was

501
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 1: Musgrove ninety seven things, ninety seven k's just twenty one walks,

502
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 1: three point zero five vra a one point one four whip.

503
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 1: Now the Padres have a little less firepower without Wan

504
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 1: Soto around, But Musgrove, to me, is one of these guys.

505
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 1: I am on the fence. I haven't made my final

506
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 1: decision on how I feel yet. I think it really

507
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 1: comes to roster construction, which, by the way, you should

508
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 1: practice your roster construction by running drafts and running all

509
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 1: the draft simulations over at fantasypros dot com slash mock

510
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 1: and you can do ten mocks in a half hour,

511
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: like the simulator runs so fast. So again, fancypros dot

512
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 1: Com slash mock. So use draft Wizard to see what

513
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 1: kind of pitching staff you're gonna put together. But Welsh,

514
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 1: what do you think here about Joe Musgrove.

515
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 2: I am not on the fence, Okay, I am all in.

516
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 2: All in, there's no build I need to think about

517
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 2: with Joe Musgrove. So we're in this teary you don't

518
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 2: really want. Musgrove is like your SP two, But boy,

519
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 2: I think he is an insane advantage of an SP

520
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 2: three if you can do it. I mean, there's only

521
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: so many and so you know you can have this

522
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 2: argument of like hit.

523
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: Their twenty ninth pitcher off like an ECR or maybe

524
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,239
Speaker 1: going off the board like I'm rooking right now on

525
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 1: fancy ros dot com slash MLB rankings, you could see

526
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 1: the pictures and where their rank right now in the

527
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 1: ECR musk Groves at twenty nine. He's ahead of Verlander

528
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: and Biby and he's behind Justin Steele and Bradish. That

529
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 1: feels about right to me.

530
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, And my point is is like he could be

531
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 2: at SP two, but from an RPV standpoint, this is

532
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 2: the SP three of SP three. Is because the other

533
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 2: thing you mentioned, like, yeah, there's maybe worries here or there,

534
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 2: but I mean he improved his fastball last year, started

535
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 2: throwing a change up more three of five pitches over

536
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 2: thirty percent with rate he still commands the ball. I mean,

537
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 2: there's a big key to a lot of these undervalued pitchers,

538
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 2: mostly outside of Snell. There's not big walks. Five percent

539
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: walk rate almost twenty five percent K percentage and expected

540
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 2: era that's with his era, So that just shows stability.

541
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 2: I'm in for all of it. And Shilt had said

542
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: that he's gonna have zero restrictions. He is good to go.

543
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 2: So there's some injury risk. I think that might be

544
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 2: floating around for some people. But when Musgrove is on,

545
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 2: he could be a top fifteen pitcher. So this is

546
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 2: a guy when you want to really focus on this

547
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 2: undervalued stuff, this is a guy that represents all of it.

548
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 3: There's a young.

549
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: Players like Yuri Perez where if the innings go up

550
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 2: high ks, that's all great. But Muskrove has done this before.

551
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 3: He has been this before.

552
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 1: He was in the lead, still on the betting board

553
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: for quite some time two years ago. Like I mean,

554
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 1: he was at the very top of that board for weeks,

555
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 1: if not months, if memories served. So you're right, if

556
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: you're going to bet on somebody, this is a guy

557
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: to bet on because you know what the upside is

558
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: and I think you nailed it. You're so smart, You're

559
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,479
Speaker 1: not just a pretty face. Welsh is a three. I

560
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 1: love it as a two. It makes me a little,

561
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 1: a little skittish, little bit a little worried. Number seven

562
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 1: on our list today of some of the mid round

563
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: pitching values we've got, this guy is hotter than Hansel

564
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 1: right now. Cole Ragan's of the Kansas City Royals. The Royals,

565
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 1: by the way, who just locked up Bobby Wit to

566
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 1: a very long term contract. Good for him, nothing like

567
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty eight million dollars guaranteed to make

568
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 1: you feel warm and fuzzy inside. But Ragans is a

569
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 1: player that obviously last year, really you know, it was

570
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: one of the big pickups down the stretch, the fastballs

571
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: at ninety six. It's the change up though that has

572
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: everybody talking a thirty five point six fifth percentage on that.

573
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 1: So he is a very popular trendy pick and he

574
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 1: made your list, so you're buying into the trend. Well.

575
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: I think the big thing to talk about too, when

576
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 2: you're talking about like undervalued, is like who are the

577
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 2: people that everybody gets excited about and what does that

578
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: value end up being Trig Scouble is an example of

579
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 2: a player that was wildly great coming off of the

580
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 2: injury into short sample size last year and he's going

581
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,360
Speaker 2: off like sp ten. Reagan's is a guy that absolutely

582
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 2: popped when he went to the Royals in the tune

583
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: of a four and a half mile prower increase on

584
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 2: his fastball. He was throwing at ninety two the year before,

585
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 2: went up to forty here and I think it was

586
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 2: the uptick in the slider. Them letting him throw the

587
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 2: slider because I think that was the issue with the Rangers.

588
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 3: They weren't.

589
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 2: That ended up being the highest fifth percentage of any

590
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 2: pitch he ended up throwing. So he became this new

591
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 2: pitcher with the Royals. Now what's his biggest fault? It's walks.

592
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: You know, that is a different with him in Trigue Scougle,

593
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 2: this is a guy that did walk guys over ten

594
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 2: percent of the time, but he was a completely different

595
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 2: pitcher as a starter era expected era all plays in

596
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 2: the fastball looks dominant. He's got four great pitches five

597
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 2: actually really that are all throwing a double digit percentage

598
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 2: of the time. But you're on a not super exciting team.

599
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 3: Why we do.

600
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 2: This is when you're looking for high, high strikeout guys

601
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 2: with big potential. I'm actually surprise Reagans isn't higher on

602
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: this list. So I think from this perspective, when Reagans

603
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: is an SP three, he is an undervalue because of

604
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,439
Speaker 2: what he could potentially. He could blow up in your

605
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 2: face with the walks and royals, could stink and all

606
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 2: those things that happen. But with all of the chances

607
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 2: we've got to take, this is great atn SP three.

608
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 3: Usually we have to pay for these guys's SP two.

609
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 2: So you want to talk about undervalue, take your risk shots.

610
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: Colt Reagan's definitely fits that mold.

611
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: Next is one of our favorite guys from leading off

612
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: last year, Merle Merril Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks Welsh

613
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 1: career high in kper nine percentage back to back years

614
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: now with e ra's sub three five whips under one

615
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: point two years in a row here, So it seems

616
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: like Kelly's been a guy these last two seasons that

617
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 1: has really settled into a groove here and probably continues

618
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: to be one of these guys that does get overlooked.

619
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 1: I love when you put him on the list because

620
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 1: to me, he is like the quintessential undervalue guy. I

621
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,360
Speaker 1: can't remember how many times last year we're like, yeah,

622
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: Meryl's gonna go out there and he's gonna, you know,

623
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: put up a quality start and he's gonna keep you

624
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 1: in the game. And you know in the second half

625
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: two for the Diamond Batch when they made that run

626
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: into the playoffs there, I mean, he was just steady Eddie.

627
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 1: And I think that's something that fantasy rotations might need

628
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 1: more than ever. And I love that you put him

629
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: on the list today.

630
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 3: I mean, you nailed exactly where we're going. So check

631
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 3: this out. I think this is interesting. Here's a projection.

632
00:26:58,119 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 1: Check this out, everybody.

633
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 2: This picture for seven projected innings eight point seven k

634
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 2: per nine, a half decent two point six y five

635
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 2: walk per nine, and essentially.

636
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 3: A four ERA. That's the first pitcher.

637
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,719
Speaker 2: The next pitcher, Meryl Kelly one hundred and sixty innings

638
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 2: projected for higher eight point five to six k p nine,

639
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 2: essentially the same little bit of a higher walk rate

640
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 2: three three nine, and his era projected much higher than

641
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 2: what he's performed over the last two years. It's four

642
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 2: four seven projected. Yet he's had two straight years of

643
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 2: having a three and a half. That first pitcher was

644
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: Justin Verlander, and a lot of people still want to

645
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: get into the Justin Verlander business. You just said it before,

646
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: and that's the big takeaway I.

647
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 3: Would do with this. Meryl's just undervalue. He's just an

648
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 3: undervalued guy.

649
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 2: He is on a Diamondbacks team that scores tons of runs,

650
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 2: even though I guess they were kind of a weirdly

651
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 2: negative run to runs given up last year. But you

652
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 2: still have this team that is gonna run score runs,

653
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 2: multiple gold Glovers on it. He's gonna pitch more innings

654
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 2: than projected. He's got a good shot to walk into

655
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 2: all of those wins. He gets some strikeouts, doesn't walk

656
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: a bunch of people. He is just a good, baseline

657
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 2: stabilizing sp that annually just gets overlooked because he's older,

658
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 2: he's kind of boring, he doesn't pop anywhere else. But

659
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 2: these are the type of guys that round out You

660
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: know what, you go get Cole Reagan's as your SP three,

661
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 2: balance him out at SP four with a Merril Kelly.

662
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 2: That makes him not only undervalued for where you draft him,

663
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 2: but it can actually make him be more undervalued by

664
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 2: what he can stabilize with the rest of your rotation.

665
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 2: So yes, he doesn't pop any specific place. But like

666
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 2: I said, he's going to get more win opportunities than

667
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 2: a lot.

668
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: Of other guys.

669
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: He's got a great defense behind him. He's got a fast,

670
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: speedy offense led by Forb and Carroll Katel Marte that

671
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 2: are going to support him. There's a lot to like

672
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: about Merril Kelly, but he keeps.

673
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 3: What did you say, it was like sp It's like.

674
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: Forty, yeah, something like that. That's kind of ridiculous when you

675
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: say thirty nine is where he is right now. So

676
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: he's two spots ahead of the next guy. And the

677
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 1: word stable is not one that you would use to

678
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: describe Carlos Rodon. I don't think that's a good word

679
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 1: in the vocabulary there. Most of last year he only

680
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,479
Speaker 1: turned in sixty four innings total and a six eight

681
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 1: five ERA along with it. If you remember when he

682
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 1: did eventually pitch, I remember two starts, specifically in September one,

683
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: where he had ten strikeouts and seven innings against the

684
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Pirates there and things went very well, and then

685
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 1: two starts later, his final start of the year gave

686
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: up eight earned runs and zero zero outs in that

687
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: zero So that's a tough one for me. Carls Rodan,

688
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: I get it. I understand it's like, hey, once you

689
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: get out of the top forty, you're throwing darts. But

690
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: to me, forty one is very hot. I understand. A

691
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: couple of years ago the guy you know turned in

692
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 1: back to back really good seasons. There, I get it,

693
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: but he has been such an enigma for so long.

694
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: Mitch Keller's going after him, Michael King's going after him.

695
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: I'd rather make investments in those guys. But why is

696
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 1: Rodon a guy that you think people should pay attention

697
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: to in drafts?

698
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 2: Well, I think the main thing is just where the

699
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 2: return can get us too, and it's risky. But let's

700
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 2: go back to just for a second. We're going to

701
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 2: go back to the bat and we're gonna look at

702
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 2: actually we're on steamer rope, but well, you know, we'll

703
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 2: do steamer here for a second, because this will really

704
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 2: make my point home. Steamer projections using the auction calculator

705
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,959
Speaker 2: puts Carlos Redon out at a almost twenty dollars value

706
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 2: the fourteenth sp higher than logan web, higher than Corbyn

707
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 2: burns higher than Max Freed.

708
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 3: Now I'll just do it live on here. What do

709
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 3: you want ATC or the bat?

710
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: Give me, give me whatever floats your boat. I'm guy, okay,

711
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: I like everyone. You're just like, yeah, you know how

712
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: much I love projections anyway, such a yeah.

713
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: Well, I mean that is definitely part of the conversation here.

714
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: So when you get a little bit more granular, we're

715
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: pushing back a little bit. Redon now On ATC is

716
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: a seven dollars projection, and I think what some of

717
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 2: the worries are is where the performance was last year.

718
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: But a fully healthy Carlos Redon. So you can see

719
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: there's really wide variance here. But he did not have

720
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 2: a decrease in the.

721
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 3: Fastball, which is a positive.

722
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 2: His slider was literally the same eighty five point four

723
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 2: high wift rate.

724
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 3: It's health. It's health with him, there.

725
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: Has always been hene two years, it's been health.

726
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: Okay, But sometimes we have to consider that undervalued players

727
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 2: can also have massive risk.

728
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: Sure not just if he's undervalued enough. I guess that's

729
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: my part, okay, But what was the SP's not? He's

730
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: right now over on Fantasy pros of the ECR he

731
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: is the forty first pitcher and the next guy we're

732
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: gonna talk about is at forty two, and I'm gonna

733
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: take that next guy every single time and twice on Sunday.

734
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: And that might be the case. Radon is motivated, His

735
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 2: pitches are still in line. It is the health that's

736
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 2: always in question. Like I mentioned, you've got really great

737
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: run support that is going to be behind him with

738
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: Won Soto and Aaron Judge. Wins might be there. The

739
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 2: strikeouts should end up being there. But the bad performance

740
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: showed its face early on last year. But prior to

741
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 2: this crappy little run he had in twenty twenty three,

742
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: he had had two straight years of a thirty three

743
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 2: or higher percent walk percentage and expected ERA in the

744
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 2: two two six's walks that were two to three percent

745
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 2: lower than it was last year. So this could just

746
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 2: blow up and he's done and he's completely done. But

747
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,479
Speaker 2: you know you got a guy that is finally healthy,

748
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 2: motivated Yankee support. Anything outside the top thirty, I think

749
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 2: you can take shots. Carlos Redon win, good and healthy

750
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 2: is the top twenty sp that's the major question. So

751
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 2: why is he undervalued because of where that return can

752
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 2: go similar to Joe Musgrove. Why is he ranked where

753
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: he is? Massive injury risk, way more of a risk,

754
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: by the way than Joe Musgrove. So I want Joe Musgrove.

755
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: And every single time I've taken Radon all over the place,

756
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 2: because where can you find thirty plus thirty percent k

757
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 2: percentage pitchers out there?

758
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 1: Almost thirty plus starts And I was gonna have to

759
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: come over and reach it.

760
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: Nat starts, but thirty percentage or more thirty plus you can't,

761
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 2: and you don't. You don't find that anywhere outside the

762
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 2: top thirty sps or it's very minimal.

763
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: Radon you can, Yeah, just looking through the games pitched

764
00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 1: Carlos Rodan.

765
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 3: Right now, you're gonna be mean.

766
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: Now I'm not gonna be mean. I'm in twenty twenty two.

767
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: He made thirty one starts. It is great. He was

768
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: brilliant a year before in twenty twenty one. I sat

769
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: on this show here and he had a really good spring,

770
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: and I kept telling everybody, Hey, it costs you nothing

771
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: to draft Carlos Rodan, and he returned a great season,

772
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty five strikeouts in one hundred and

773
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: thirty two winnings. But even that great season was miss time.

774
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 1: He did miss more than half a dozen starts. So

775
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: that's my thing. I just I like Rodan's not enough

776
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 1: a discount for me and the.

777
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: Guy thintyning one hundred and forty innings from him, based

778
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 2: on who he's been in the past, will return plus some.

779
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: In the season long roto Yes, I play in more

780
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: head to head formats. So the head to head, when

781
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 1: you're missing that guy for a month, it kicks you

782
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: right in the rear end.

783
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 3: Are you missing in the playoffs that's the.

784
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 1: Or even worse down the stretch, or or maybe even

785
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: worse than that, giving up eight earned runs without getting

786
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: it out in your last start of the season, that

787
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 1: would be u That would be poor. Anyway, maybe I

788
00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: teased it before. Who's the guy I'm gonna take every

789
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: time over Carlsordan. It's another Minnesota twin. It's Bailey Ober.

790
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 1: I wrote about him in the Black Book. I did

791
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 1: all the picture profiles. Go check it out on Amazon

792
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 1: right now. It's out there right now. Welsh and myself,

793
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: Kelly Kirby, all of your favorite people contributing this year.

794
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: But look, my big takeaway with Ober was the five

795
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,399
Speaker 1: to one strikeout to walk rate. I mean, the guy

796
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 1: was just brilliant. One hundred and forty four innings last year.

797
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: He was tough to square up. He only had seven

798
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: point eight hits per nine. He had nine point one

799
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: k per nine, a one point eight walk per nine.

800
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: The guy was awesome. The three four to three era

801
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 1: was there. Now the FIP was a little higher at

802
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: three point nine to six. But again, you know, I

803
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: think this is still a picture who you haven't seen

804
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: the best out of yet, and that's what makes me

805
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 1: excited for Bailey Ober. And he made the list that

806
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 1: you put together, so you must be excited too.

807
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think I slept a little early,

808
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: like in the early like November ish range. I do

809
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: a lot of focus. By the way, my stuff in

810
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 2: the Black Book is all infield and then a lot

811
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,479
Speaker 2: of strategy stuff, so outfielders starting pitchers end up coming

812
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 2: to me a little bit later as I continue to

813
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: do my work. But Bailey Over is just one of

814
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 2: those guys that pops, especially like early NFBC drafts, he

815
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 2: started to see him go really good with solid wifth

816
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 2: percentages where it shows like twenty seven, twenty nine, thirty

817
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: two on his most used pitches. He's low velocity ninety one,

818
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 2: but it's built on command. Three straight years of walk

819
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 2: percentage that was top ten percent in the league. And

820
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 2: an interesting thing though, the strikeout numbers twenty five percent

821
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 2: K percentage don't look insane. The chase rate, so I

822
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 2: just mentioned the with rate was twenty eight point seven,

823
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 2: which was like top thirty percent of the league. His

824
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 2: chase rate of guys chasing on him thirty three point five,

825
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: which was top nine percentile in the league. So he's

826
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 2: got guys just flying all over and you do that

827
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: by pitching to solid command, not walking a lot of

828
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 2: guys three and a half ra We've seen the Twins

829
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 2: do really good stuff on just overall pitching development. I'm

830
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: here for it, and I'm here for you know, he

831
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,959
Speaker 2: did a slight alteration this year of throwing his change

832
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 2: up over his slider, and I think that made his

833
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 2: slider maybe even a little bit more effective. So I'm

834
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 2: here for Bailey over. I love these guys with that

835
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 2: low walk, solid innings, get your wins.

836
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 3: I love these type of guys. And he is three

837
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 3: ninety nine.

838
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good price. Last time I checked. So

839
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: some great names on the list here that Welsh has

840
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: put together. Again, we agree on most of them, but

841
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: we like to hear from you. Who do you agree with?

842
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: Who are you in on? You like Bailey Ober, you

843
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: think Carlos Rodon is just the right price? I want

844
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: to hear from you, guys. Drop your comments below in

845
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,240
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel if you haven't already, subscribe to Fantasy

846
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: pros MLB because it's the best baseball YouTube channel on

847
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 1: the planet right now. Plus we're gonna be every single

848
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: day when the season starts as always with leading off

849
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: with Welsh myself and all the Peanuts and the Cracker

850
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: Jacks and joining us every single day live. You can live,

851
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 1: join us, ask us questions, have some fun with us.

852
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 1: We talk fantasy, we talk betting, we talk baseball, we

853
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 1: talk everything. Maybe some X Men stuff will be in

854
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: there too. You just never know with us. But this

855
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,240
Speaker 1: is a great list and also here on the channel

856
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 1: when you subscribe and drop your comments below and ring

857
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 1: the bell for notifications too, because we've got the short

858
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: form content also the top ten lists, so many fun things,

859
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: big guests. We just had Ariel Conan, We have Lad Seddler,

860
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: onto the best and brightest minds of the fantasy baseball

861
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 1: community and us we're here too, so again we want

862
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 1: to hear from you. Drop your comments on the YouTube channel,

863
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 1: subscribe to Fantasy Bros MLB. That'll do it for us,

864
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh.

865
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:25,760
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Ah

866
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: nice throwing the card. Well done.