1 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: Welcome to another episode of Strictly Business, the podcast where 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: we speak with some of the brightest minds working in 3 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: the media business today. I'm Andrew Wallenstein with Variety. May 4 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: is a month with a lot of fronts in the 5 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: media business. We've gone from the new fronts to the 6 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: podcast up fronts and soon enough the traditional TV upfronts. 7 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: With all these different brands pitching themselves to marketers, there's 8 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: no better time to check in with Brian Weezer, global 9 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: president of business intelligence and media agency Giant Blue N. 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,279 Speaker 1: He knows the number side of Madison Avenue about as 11 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: well as anyone, so I'm looking forward to hearing from 12 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: him at an interesting time for the advertising business. Welcome 13 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: back to Strictly Business, where I'm talking with Brian Weezer 14 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: blu N about the state of the advertising business in 15 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: the thick of the so called upfront season. Good to 16 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 1: have you with me, Brian, Uh I say, it's an 17 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: interesting time primarily because of the overhang of the pandemic, 18 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: which I think we can at least characterize as being 19 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: in a light at the end of the tunnel stage. 20 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: And I want to start with how you see where 21 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: we are with COVID impacting the state of the economy globally, 22 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,959 Speaker 1: but more so in the US because the economy impacts advertising. 23 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: The course, Yeah, well thanks for having me here. Uh. There, 24 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: there's a lot of living parts in answering that question. 25 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: I mean, the first thing is to consider the what 26 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 1: we'd call it easy comparable if you will, when you 27 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: look at one over and it's just going to distort 28 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: numbers for for so much of the economy when you 29 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: look at things on a year of your basis. So 30 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: that's maybe the first part. But even if you start 31 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: to look at the trends that uh compared to say, 32 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 1: two years ago, you have a number of conditions going on. First, 33 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: we've created a new plateau against which e commerce is 34 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: growing and sustaining pretty rapid pace of growth, far faster 35 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: than would have been true have there not been a pandemic. Um, 36 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: we have massive new business formation, which maybe overlaps with 37 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: that ecmmerce point. It certainly is catalyzed by the pandemic. 38 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: But the fact that there are so many new businesses 39 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: being borned h it's the best illustration of creative destruction 40 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: you can find. Um. Lots of businesses went away and 41 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: truly being replaced by new ones, and that's having a 42 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: different distorting effect on the overall ad market, primarily skewing 43 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: um spending into digital media. And that's what we saw, 44 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: I think, in part in certainly first core results from 45 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: the lakes of Google and Facebook. Um. And then you 46 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: get just general inflation because when when we say it's 47 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: a hot market, we mean hot in terms of an 48 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,799 Speaker 1: economy running hot. We have a lot of juice up 49 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: demand from a lot of consumers with a lot of 50 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: extra money to spend um stimulus driven in many cases 51 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: um at least collectively, because we really do need to 52 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 1: remember that a lot of people are still struggling, but 53 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: on average, people in the economy are very very able 54 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: to spend money and very willing to do so, and 55 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: that's creating inflationary conditions at a sort of general economy level. 56 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: So what does history tell us about how the ad 57 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: business is typically affected by major events like the pandemic? 58 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: Did the pandemic fit that pattern? Has everything gone as 59 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 1: you expected? Well back when I was working at the way, 60 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: there really isn't anything to compare to in the United States, 61 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: you know, Actually you can look at uh at what's 62 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: happened you know, Hong Kong Stars or other markets. But 63 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: it's it's almost it's not not big enough to provide 64 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: an apt comparison. Um even a war is not an 65 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 1: apt comparison, because even during wartime, even in economies with 66 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: total war, you may still have kind of life going 67 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: on in the middle of it in a way that 68 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: wasn't true during the pandemic. For for a few months, 69 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: I mean, things ground to a halt in ways that 70 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: that just doesn't normally happen. So it's really hard to 71 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: compare to anything, certainly in modern history. UM So what 72 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: we can do, though, is we can look to some 73 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: general principles. It's almost too easy, shorthand to point to 74 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: something like economic growth and then try to correlate that 75 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: to advertige that it does correlate with advertising, but it's 76 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 1: more coincidental because, as I said before and applied before, 77 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: creative destruction is the most important factor that drives advertising growth. 78 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: The very fact that a business that emerged this year 79 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 1: has a different profile than a business that emerged ten 80 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: years ago, or twenty years ago or forty years ago 81 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: goes a long long way towards explaining what's happening with 82 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: advertising and if you think about the fact that a 83 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 1: business that formed in say row forming would have been 84 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: incrementally different, right, but a business forming in versus a 85 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: business forming in could be radically different in terms of 86 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: every aspect of what they do and how they do it. 87 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: And so when you think about how that plays into 88 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: marketing and media, I mean, we know that the average 89 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 1: company allocates are known one percent of their revenue to advertising, 90 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: But what if the new generation of business is being 91 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 1: formed is more like two something like that is happening, 92 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: and all that extra money is blowing into Google and 93 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: Facebook and Amazon. Yeah, you mentioned those pretty astonishing first 94 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 1: quarter results. You've mentioned the rise at of e commerce. 95 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: I mean, it seems like the shelter at home lifestyle 96 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: spurred a quantum leap in terms of how central e 97 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: commerce became in the average consumers lives. Though, as you 98 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: also pointed out, e commerce wasn't exactly obscure before. So 99 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: am I actually overstating the e commerce effect? No, that's 100 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: that's that's accurate, Although sometimes we stay e commerce and 101 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: really we're we're just using something really tangible for a 102 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: looser concept of business transformation, right, I mean business transformation 103 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: meaning you know, how businesses are adapting to a world 104 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: that's ever more connect did to the internet. Right, Um, 105 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: the e commerce is just the most tangible example most 106 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 1: of us can point to. But if you think about 107 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: like digital ordering, right, I mean, just as a constable, 108 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: you know, um, you know the idea that we can 109 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: now call a store or you know, we can arrange 110 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: for the specifics of a transaction and then pick it 111 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: up with that every setting foot in the store, and 112 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: we're using our mobile devices to alert the people in 113 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: the store that we're there. You know, all these different 114 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: elements of using digital technology to drive how we do 115 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: what we do and drive how businesses interact with us. 116 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: All of that accelerated over the last year. E commerce 117 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: again just the most superficial, most tangible thing we can 118 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: point to. Sure, I mean, look, all all signals signals 119 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: are that there's this sharp rebound a foot here. But 120 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: are there any flags on the field. Are there anything 121 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: that could steer the economy or advertising? Uh, in an 122 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: unexpected direction? Oh? Sure, Well we learned nothing from the 123 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: last you know your in event, it's an unexpected things 124 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: can occur. Um. I think that the in the in 125 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: the short term, one of the bigger risks that we're 126 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: certainly mindful of. Is this whole semi conductor shortage issue. UH, 127 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 1: the idea that almost every free company who's making electronic 128 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: product has a real problem right now because of this shortage. UH. 129 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: And so you pair that with other supply chain issues, 130 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 1: pair that with input cost inflation, and there are some 131 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,839 Speaker 1: real challenges in the near term. Now the semis issue. 132 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: If I'm not a semi conductor analyst, but certainly UM, 133 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: every automo manufacturer that's reported so far this UH this 134 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 1: quarter has talked about how it will disrupt second quarter production, 135 00:08:54,960 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: but they do expect things to even out as your progressives, right, UH, 136 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: it doesn't necessarily impact longer term planning. UH. And at 137 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: the same time, things like input cost inflation is an issue, 138 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: but a manufacturer can always find ways to, you know, 139 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: change how they do what they do. UM. They can 140 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: find ways to certainly raise prices consumers and create inflationary conditions, yes, 141 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: but all else equal, those manufacturers might be just as 142 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: well off. But there's an interesting question to be raised. 143 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: And this is sort of you know, an issue that 144 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: I think Wallster is debating is just how temporary will 145 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: higher inflation be and by the way, are we talking 146 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: about a percentage point or two or something more robust? 147 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: And once you get into a path of inflation being 148 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: out there, do we actually create a sustained levels of 149 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: elevated inflation? So those are arguably potential risks to be 150 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: aware of. Well, we'll have to keep an eye on 151 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:00,319 Speaker 1: on those issues. Let's let's dig deeper now into this 152 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: new front, up front, old front madness that we're in 153 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: the middle of. I'm curious, you know, every year seems 154 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: to be like a different narrative in terms of these marketplaces. 155 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: Is there anything that's jumping out of you in terms 156 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: of well, this is the year we're learning X. I mean, 157 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: I think that's that's that's not a bad way to 158 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: try to look at it. Um, I would I would 159 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: tend to focus on things like power marketers using television 160 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: and context of other immediate and how that's changing. Um, 161 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: what is the role of television going forward kind of 162 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: in a longer term sense rather than you know, it's 163 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 1: kind of a point in time as opposed to something 164 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 1: that reflects a longer term trends that marketers are are 165 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: working around. And let me just elaborate a been on 166 00:10:55,640 --> 00:11:01,199 Speaker 1: that we're going into a period where consumption of television 167 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: in its traditional form is following a pretty dramatic club 168 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: right now. Um, and you and I talked for a 169 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 1: long time and those of me for a long time 170 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: and known that I you know, back in the late 171 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: two thousand's, early two thousands tens, there are people calling 172 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: me a TV bowl. You know, as an analyst, It's like, no, 173 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 1: I'm not a bowl. And just observing that the medium 174 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: still growing. It's like consumption holds up generally speaking, it's 175 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: not nothing is getting in the way of of that. 176 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: Those trends that we were seeing last year, something got 177 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: in the way. And it wasn't just the pandemic. It 178 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: was the very fact that you had all all the 179 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: streaming services finally committing to spending billions and billions and 180 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 1: billions of dollars on original programming. That is a meaningful 181 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: difference between what we saw ten years ago or five 182 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: years ago. And to a UM, all those concerns about 183 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 1: you know, member back in the early two thousand's that 184 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 1: where of all the young men gone like men in 185 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: eight thirty four are playing video games, says Massive, the 186 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: video game company, and that became these dominant narratives. Right, well, 187 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: there is never anything to that. Um, this is real 188 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: and because we know, you know, you can roughly estimate 189 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: that globally there's something like a hundred fifty billion dollars 190 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: of spending on uh TV or professionally produced content in 191 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,319 Speaker 1: a year, and Netflix is going to be fifteen billion 192 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: dollars of that. It's not unreasonable to think that they'll 193 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 1: get about a tenth of ball viewing. And it's not 194 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: like you it goes up by ten to account for it. 195 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: It comes from somewhere, and that Netflix viewing is not 196 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 1: as supported, it will never be out supported. Then you 197 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: get you know, Amazon Prime, they are going to be 198 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 1: some number in the high single digit billions on Prime 199 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 1: Video specifically. And then you look at and there will 200 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: be any adds. They're not many, at least Disney Plus, 201 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: thank Deal, and you go on, well, there will be 202 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,719 Speaker 1: some ads and some certainly Whlue remains that supported, but 203 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: there'll be these uh some of the able oard services 204 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:16,839 Speaker 1: inside of this UH this realm of content, the available 205 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: advertising inventory is compressing in a pretty meaningful way. And 206 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: that means that the capacity for a marketer to accomplish 207 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: the reach and frequency based goals that they had in 208 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: the past is pretty meaning they altered. So when I 209 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: think about the upfront and I think about the decisions 210 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: that marketers are making, I think about it more through 211 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 1: the lens of marketers having to figure out what the 212 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: role of television is more generally in their marketing dgics. 213 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: And it seems though as if a big part of 214 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: the pitch from the traditional TV players will be, Hey, 215 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 1: it doesn't have to be all about linear. We've got 216 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: your back marketers on connected TV. We've got all this inventory. 217 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 1: Um to me, that seems I mean, while certainly not 218 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: a new trend, uh, it's now sort of in a 219 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: in a more prominent way that I mean, do you 220 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: think it will be sort of transformative? Well no, because 221 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: I mean my my point is that the available at 222 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: support inventory in what most people would reasonably call television. 223 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: Most people meaning consumers, meaning there's no meaningful distinction between 224 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: connected TV linear TV. From a typical consumer's perspective, that 225 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: available inventory is shrinking because if you think about a 226 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: total Internet connected device based viewing is some number like 227 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: all viewing and rising still at twenty or percent a year, 228 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: of that inventory call it half is a third is Netflix, 229 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: another is Amazon Prime, and another five percent is Disney. 230 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: Right there, that's this just take away half of that inventory, 231 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: you know, so you've just lost, call it fifteen percent 232 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: of all available consumption, and then YouTube is that TV 233 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: or not. Those advertisers would still say it's not really 234 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: that comparable. Okay, lop off another five of that available inventory. Okay, 235 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: you've just taken out consumption, right, total consumption in agory. 236 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: It didn't really grow that much. It was eroding. All 237 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: this viewering was going towards and burns which were either 238 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: at supported or not comparable to traditional at base television. 239 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: And so while it's great that a traditional TV network 240 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: owner has some ad inventory in these environments, and let's 241 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: put aside of the measurement issues. Let's put aside whether 242 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: or not you're getting unduplicated reach and all that fun stuff. Um, 243 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: the reality is there's just a lot less television and 244 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: based inventory, uh with which to reach consumer. We'll be 245 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: back in just a little bit with more with Brian Weser. 246 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Strictly Business, where I'm talking with Brian 247 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: Weezer or group and about the state of the advertising 248 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: business in the thick of the upfront season. Brian, I 249 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 1: hear what you're saying about all these alternatives, but there's 250 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: also to be and Pluto TV and Peacock streaming inventory 251 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: that you know, the traditional TV companies are making available. 252 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: So that doesn't solve all their problems. No, because I 253 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: mean that's included in the numbers of sting. Oh that's 254 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: my boy, got it? And what about the I'm just 255 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 1: curious what you think about the so called free acid 256 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: free ad supported streaming options like to be in Pluto TV. 257 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: Do you see these as as being viable, you know, 258 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 1: to define five years in the future, this is gonna 259 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: be a permanent part of the landscape in general. Yes, 260 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: I I think that the way I think about viability 261 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 1: from a consumer perspective is spending on content. There should 262 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 1: be a rough relationship between share and spend on content 263 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 1: and share of viewing and again just dealstrate to take 264 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: Netflix right, I can roughly estimate, depending on how you 265 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: want to make assumptions about what the right connations between 266 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 1: cash accounting expenses. If Netflix was some number like five 267 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: billion dollars on programming in a country where by my 268 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: estminsters around seventy billion dollars of spending on programming for 269 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 1: the US, that's about seven right, Well, what's their total 270 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: share of viewing? It's about seven percent. If you spend 271 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: if you show up today with let's say one point 272 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: four billion dollars of a TV budget of the budget 273 00:17:56,560 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 1: for programming, I would bet you probably will get to 274 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: to percent audience. Sure all those people. Now, if you're 275 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 1: really good, you can find ways to do it cheaply 276 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: and get a lot of audience. But on average you 277 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: need to spend up to get the viewing. It's not 278 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 1: I don't think it's that hard hard to understand. Why. 279 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: It's a spaghetti theory of programming. Right, you throw it 280 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 1: up against the wall, something sticks. On average, you know 281 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:27,439 Speaker 1: that some percentage will. So if you're whether you're Pluto 282 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: or to be oring these others don't. Hey, they may 283 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 1: end up being very efficient forms of getting the viewership. UM. 284 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: That remains to be seen. They are going to spend 285 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 1: more on original programming, and certainly we've heard um. You know, 286 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: Fox really talked about that the other day their next call, UM. 287 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 1: And I think we'll see that more often from the 288 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: pure a body aggregators UM that don't today have a 289 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: lot of original but in general, the viewing share will 290 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,479 Speaker 1: go to where they're spending a share. I don't think 291 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 1: that should be rocket science, can't are had estimated national 292 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 1: TV ad spend in was down about pent of at 293 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: fifty billion dollars. Uh, So what do you see for one? 294 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 1: How big a swing could we see in terms of 295 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 1: money moving to digital? Well, I mean, let's I mean, 296 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: first of all, I guess we could say on our 297 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: numbers that's not too far away from where Groogum's estimates 298 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 1: are for two thousand twenty. You have to be mindful 299 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: when you're looking at the year of your media and 300 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: our ad revenue, or at spending trends. It's really important 301 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: to be conscious of the role political advertising, which really 302 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: distores the numbers on a year of your basis um. 303 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: So you know, if you wind up with on an 304 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 1: underlying basis, one can grow by college nine percent or something. 305 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: But is that very meaningful in context of the decline 306 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 1: that we have last year and not? Really? The right 307 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: way to think about it, as as far as I'm 308 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: concerned is to think about flatish kind of overall business, 309 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: maybe a lightly declining one over time, and it comes 310 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: back this creative destruction issue. If the kinds of companies 311 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:10,199 Speaker 1: that are predisposed towards using television are less prominent in 312 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 1: the economy, that will lead to less spending on television. 313 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 1: Right you see some of those advertisers, Uh, the average 314 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 1: large brand advertiser incrementally reduces their spending on television with 315 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: every passing year. That's been true forever. They get replaced 316 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: in part by new marketers who show up because it's 317 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 1: satisfies a goal better than an alternative for that new 318 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: advertiser who shows up. But the combined effect is that 319 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 1: you get a flat kind of number to slight decline 320 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 1: in terms of the available spending that's out there. That's 321 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: independent from the available inventory. Right now, this is something 322 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: that a lot of people miss. There is there's no 323 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: law that says a change in supply causes the change 324 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: in demand at So just because audience trends go one 325 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: way or the other doesn't tell you anything about demand. 326 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: Those are independent To point on, you know, shifts to 327 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: digital show that is happening because the nature of marketers. 328 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: Businesses are adapting and evolving, and we can argue, rightly 329 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 1: or wrongly that a marketer whose business is increasingly oriented 330 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: online will increasingly allocate money to digital media, the pure 331 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:31,959 Speaker 1: play you know, digital platforms. Um that tends to happen, 332 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: whether it's right or wrong. I could argue the best 333 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: allocation of resources a market could make is first invest 334 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: in brand, second, invest in creative, third, figure out the 335 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 1: bed afterwards. That's not how market there's actually make decisions though. 336 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: Um So, television will still have an important role for 337 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: most of those marketers, but it's with every passing year 338 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: there is on average there's a bit of a shift 339 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 1: for the like for like marketing. Another way that TV 340 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: is going to try to close the gap on digital 341 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 1: is to sell Madison Avenue on its capability to target 342 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: with addressable advertising. Oh what do you think of where 343 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: the state of addressable advertising is right now? What are 344 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 1: the obstacles to this, you know, becoming a bigger deal 345 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 1: for TV? Yeah, well so I've I've been spending time 346 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 1: understanding addressability for twenty years almost, which feels like a 347 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 1: long time. I know there still have been out longer. 348 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: Um and it it from the earliest days where I 349 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 1: looked at this, I thought the whole trying to sell 350 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 1: you know, running at for for dog food to dog 351 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,719 Speaker 1: owners sounds great in concept, but it feels like it's 352 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 1: a pretty small market, And sure enough, I think that 353 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: is a very small market, is not where the ultimate 354 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: opportunity is for addressability. Where the ultimate opportunity for adjustability is, 355 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: as I see it is in helping marketers accomplish what 356 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: they really need, which is cost effective reach extension, meaning 357 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 1: how do you find that of a target audience under 358 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:13,959 Speaker 1: a broad definition? Because keep in mind, if you're using television, 359 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: it's probably because you want to reach everybody. How do 360 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: you make sure that you're actually managing you're reaching frequency 361 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: the way you intend to eight percent reach with an 362 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 1: average of eight times frequency and making sure that only uh, 363 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: nobody gets more than ten exposures and no one gets 364 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:37,159 Speaker 1: less than six, you know, balancing a load of frequency 365 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,959 Speaker 1: that is not commonly done or not commonly doable with 366 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:47,400 Speaker 1: television the way it works today, I think addressability offers 367 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: UH an amazing opportunity to actually help markers accomplish those 368 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: reaching frequency goals that they have. And sure then you 369 00:23:55,280 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: can start to incorporate variability, like maybe you identify that 370 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 1: a certain kind of profile of a consumer is more 371 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 1: likely to respond to a certain kind of message versus another. 372 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 1: But it's all very incremental in terms of its impact 373 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: and very difficult to prove with any certainty. So I 374 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,439 Speaker 1: think that that's where the greatest opportunity is um for 375 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 1: for addability in the medium, and it becomes a reallocation 376 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,199 Speaker 1: of reason versus not a source of new resources. But 377 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: at the same time, I think there is some opportunity 378 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 1: to help bring some marginal advertisers into the medium. It's 379 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,199 Speaker 1: not necessarily a large amount of money, but it's the 380 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 1: idea that if you're a marketer, would say a five 381 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,439 Speaker 1: million dollar budget, you think that television would work for 382 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: you if only you could use it in a very 383 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: precise way. Yeah, there's some extra money to be had 384 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: from that kind of a marketer, but they don't know 385 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 1: that that's necessarily a need mover. Well, it also wouldn't 386 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: be up front season if we didn't have some sort 387 00:24:55,280 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: of controversy around measurement. And we're seeing the networks claiming 388 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:05,479 Speaker 1: Nielsen is under counting TV viewing during the pandemic. Uh, 389 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: what what to make of this? Is just just sort 390 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: of like a new variation on the same old theme 391 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 1: of the networks, you know, working the refs so to speak, 392 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,680 Speaker 1: or or do they have a point? Well, I mean, 393 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 1: there are definitely some issues that based with respect retombishment 394 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 1: during the pandemic UM mostly pretty understandable in terms of 395 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 1: not being able to you know, send people into homes um. 396 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 1: But you know, you could argue the other the the 397 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: numbers are distorted in lots of different ways through the pandemic. 398 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: For example, because they didn't turn over the homes in 399 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: the panel as frequently as they normally would have. UM, 400 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 1: they didn't bring in new homes, which would have biased 401 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:56,959 Speaker 1: the panel towards traditional pay TV subscribers rather than court cutters, 402 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 1: rather than BMVPD subscribers, which would have had uh at 403 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 1: the effect of reducing consumption or as measured right. So 404 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 1: there's lots of living parts and you can see this 405 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 1: in their data where there's the normally, Nielsen's data is 406 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 1: probably the best single metric in terms of tracking total 407 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 1: pay TV subscriptions. And you know, it's a it's a 408 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: different number than if you compare it to say, add 409 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: up Direct TV and Charter and Comcast cable stubs and 410 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 1: just add them all up and you wind up with 411 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: a different number versus what Nielsen has and The reason 412 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 1: is Nielsen wouldn't have any double counting in the way 413 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,640 Speaker 1: that the mvpd s do. There's other history factors when 414 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 1: you look at the public company reportings, but there is 415 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 1: a huge gap between that total pay TV number UH 416 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 1: and what the what the actual distributors were reporting through 417 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:55,360 Speaker 1: the pandemic until this most recent quarter, arguably because of 418 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: this issue, and that would have had the impact of 419 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: because it's a boosting viewership of television and in particular 420 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: booststing cable viewership. So there's moving parts and UH, it's 421 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 1: not necessarily favorable. It's not favorable unfavorable on that basis 422 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 1: necessarily it's hard to know. Um, Obviously we're talking a 423 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: lot about video based advertising. I don't want to give 424 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 1: other forms short shrift. I mentioned you know, we've got 425 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 1: podcast upfronts going on, hearing more talk about video games 426 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: as a place for advertising. What are what are certain 427 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 1: some of the meaningful trends that you're seeing that we 428 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: should keep an eye on in terms of advertising in 429 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 1: in in non video formats. Well, you know, there's what's 430 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 1: happening and then there's what should be happening. UM, what's 431 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 1: happening is uh beyond television. It is Facebook, Google, and 432 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 1: Amazon's world and we're just living in it, right. Um 433 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: uh and so it's really you know, all these other 434 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 1: platforms are important, but and and market will talk about 435 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 1: these things, and they allow kay resources to these things, 436 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 1: but not in a meaningful way. UM. It's safe to 437 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,439 Speaker 1: say that the typical large brand, to be clear, we're 438 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:22,719 Speaker 1: talking about advertisers or like network TV TV. So if 439 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 1: you think of that cohort of brands, typically they're allocating 440 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 1: just under of their budgets to television, but probably allocating 441 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 1: for to digital and everything else gets about something like that. Um. 442 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: And so sure, something like podcasting has tremendous interest. Uh. 443 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 1: It is the sizzle that drives the stake of radio, 444 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 1: so to speak. But it's not like collectively radio is 445 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 1: going to grow right beside the year of your comparisons 446 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: which are easy, but I'm saying beyond this year. UM. 447 00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 1: Outdoor advertising lots of our too, very impactful, probably greatly 448 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: under appreciate for how much it could be used even 449 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 1: during a pandemic environment. UM. You know, that probably gets 450 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 1: back to something resembling normal growth and single digits for them. UM. 451 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: Print you know is a great example where print is 452 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: only going to grow if they invest in contents. Where 453 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 1: you see a media owner investing in content, there will 454 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: be a lot of interest upon the marketers to spend 455 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 1: money as advertisers with those publishers. But where you see 456 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 1: publishers disinvesting in their properties, trying to hardest the assets, 457 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 1: so to speak, um, there won't be a lot of 458 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 1: advertiser interests. I would be remiss in in not asking 459 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 1: about the third party cookie situation, where obviously big changes 460 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: afoot on the Apple and Google platforms, changes in how 461 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 1: audiences are targeted and measured. Um, what is is you 462 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 1: more sense of it? I mean, this is sort of 463 00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 1: a drum that has been sort of, you know, approaching 464 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 1: crescendo for a while now, and it's I'm kind of 465 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: losing track of when I'm supposed to truly focus here. Yeah, well, 466 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 1: I mean it depends on which vantage point you're you're 467 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 1: looking at this issue from. I think if you take 468 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 1: a step back and look at the bigger picture about 469 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 1: what it means for marketers. Um, what we saw from 470 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 1: GPR in Europe was kind of the tell about what 471 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 1: marketers needed to do. What what GDPR was essentially saying 472 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 1: to marketers was deer marketer. If you cannot persuade a 473 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,959 Speaker 1: consumer to part with their data, you probably don't deserve it. 474 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 1: The California law that ccp A was not dissimilar, maybe 475 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 1: not as as aggressive as as GDPRE, but definitely going 476 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 1: down that same direction. And every law that's you know, 477 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: been considered basically trying to get to the same kind 478 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 1: of place. And so when you see what what Apple 479 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 1: uh is starting to do right now, and what Google 480 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: is going to do as well, and the whole deplication 481 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: of their pretty cookies as we've done it, it's all 482 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 1: consistent with this broader trend. Deer marketer, if you cannot 483 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,640 Speaker 1: persuade a consumer to part with their data, you probably 484 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 1: don't deserve it. So the bigger issue than from a 485 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: marketer is all right, you need to invest in figuring 486 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: out how to persuade consumers to part with their data. 487 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 1: What makes it truly worth their while. Don't assume that 488 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: they actually love advertising, don't assume that they love your brand. 489 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 1: Make sure that they actually have a reason to want 490 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: to care UM and that could mean that there needs 491 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 1: to be a good value trade off that the consumer 492 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 1: actually understands UM and it's not. Then you know, marketers 493 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 1: need to kind of work within this world where they 494 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 1: can build their brands over time. At least that should 495 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 1: be the goal. Um. Certainly, if you want to differentiate 496 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 1: yourself over the long long term, a strong brand is essential. 497 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 1: And if not done then you know there's al sorts 498 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 1: of other ways to make a living. Oh, that's just 499 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 1: one of many big issues that needs to be followed 500 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: on the advertising front. Brian Weezer, thanks for taking some 501 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,080 Speaker 1: time out to walk us through all this. It's gonna 502 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 1: be an interesting to pay attention to. Thanks Matting. This 503 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: has been another episode of Strictly Business. Tune in next 504 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 1: week for another helping of scintillating conversation with media movers 505 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: and shakers, and please make sure you subscribe to the 506 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 1: podcast to hear future episodes. Also, leave a review in 507 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts and let us know how we're doing