WEBVTT - BofA Stock Traders Post Record

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Okay, that's it. With Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of America reporting this morning big bank earnings. They are

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<v Speaker 1>done for the quarter. Shares hire by about three point

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<v Speaker 1>nine percent in the wake of that report. The company,

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<v Speaker 1>joining its Wall Street rivals and capitalizing on market volatility,

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<v Speaker 1>will also benefiting from an increase in lending. Joining us

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<v Speaker 1>now is Sally Bakewell, finance team leader at Bloomberg New

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<v Speaker 1>She's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Sally,

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<v Speaker 1>great to have you with us. Uh here we are.

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<v Speaker 1>Your sort of busy season for the quarter is just

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<v Speaker 1>wrapping up here, Uh, give us the highlights from Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of America, and then we pulled back and talk about

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<v Speaker 1>the quarter for big banks in justin MANA. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>think Bank of America was very much in line with

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<v Speaker 1>what we saw from most of the bank's last last week. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We saw that it capitalized on the volatility or the

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<v Speaker 1>volatility that's been exacerbated by the situation in Ukraine. And

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<v Speaker 1>we saw that investment banking took a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>hit UM because we have this sort of spack regulation

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<v Speaker 1>that has chilled a lot of the deals. UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>then we also saw some glimpses of how the consumer

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<v Speaker 1>is doing UM. And much like some of the other banks,

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing these trends where consumers are continuing or amping

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<v Speaker 1>up a little bit. They're spending UM, and Bank of

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<v Speaker 1>America gave us a pretty good picture here. UM. We

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<v Speaker 1>know that consumers, for example, they opened one million credit

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<v Speaker 1>cards in the first quarter. UM is spending increase. The

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<v Speaker 1>bank is expecting that its net interest income, which is

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<v Speaker 1>that key metric for banks, is going to grow by

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<v Speaker 1>to sifty million in the second quarter. And that's on

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<v Speaker 1>strong loan and strong deposit growth. So the words from

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<v Speaker 1>the conference calls and the analysts and the media calls

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<v Speaker 1>were very much about the consumers being in robust health. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>they're sitting on a lot of liquidity UM. Delinquencies and

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<v Speaker 1>charge offs are all low. So the picture is pretty strong.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm sure one of you is going to ask

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<v Speaker 1>ask me now about what the actual you know, what

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<v Speaker 1>the risks are and what the outlook might be. So

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<v Speaker 1>I'll let you do that. Well, go ahead and answer.

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<v Speaker 1>That was probably a better question than I was gonna

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<v Speaker 1>actually have for you anyway, Sally. So, yeah, what did

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<v Speaker 1>we learn about how things look? Well? I think so

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<v Speaker 1>MONI hand today this the Bank of America chief executive officer.

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<v Speaker 1>He did say that consumers are sitting on They're still

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<v Speaker 1>sitting on a lot of the stimulus that they got,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's kind of helping them, um keep current on

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<v Speaker 1>their debt and enabling them to spend a little bit more.

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<v Speaker 1>But I guess the questions remain about what happens when

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<v Speaker 1>that stimulus, that liquidity they do have, starts to drain

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<v Speaker 1>um and they are left just with high inflation UM

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<v Speaker 1>gas prices being higher, and then we have, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the overall political uncertainty um interest rate hikes. So while

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<v Speaker 1>the snapshot today looks pretty good, UM, it is not

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<v Speaker 1>without some clouds on the horizon. Tell us a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit about loan growth, because I think when the average

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps listener, here's the word debt in a non financial

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<v Speaker 1>market context, it's like that's a bad word, right, But

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<v Speaker 1>if you hear loans or debt in a Bank of

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<v Speaker 1>America has long growth, that's actually a really good sign

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<v Speaker 1>Talk to us a little bit about what that signals. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's exactly the right perspective I think on it. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>we we see the banks have said for a long

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<v Speaker 1>time that they're waiting for loan growth to return. And

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<v Speaker 1>again it's been stimulus has been cited as the reason

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<v Speaker 1>that people aren't boring. Again, they've got enough cash in

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<v Speaker 1>their pockets they don't need to. But loan growth is

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<v Speaker 1>really important for the banks because that feeds into this

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<v Speaker 1>net interest income met trick um that is their main

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<v Speaker 1>source of revenue. So it really matters, UM, and if

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<v Speaker 1>they aren't seeing that, they have to look for other

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<v Speaker 1>places where they can get revenue, and it just complicates

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<v Speaker 1>everything for banks. So we have started to see it

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<v Speaker 1>come back. UM. In the first quarter is not completely

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<v Speaker 1>clear easy picture m JP and and consumer loan growth

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<v Speaker 1>is key UM of For example, last week we had

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<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan reporting UM and while they had commercial and

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<v Speaker 1>I think consumer loans up, I think consumer loans without

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<v Speaker 1>credit cards were actually down. So it's not completely clear

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<v Speaker 1>and positive picture. But banks are now finally after sort

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<v Speaker 1>of two years, starting to see loan growth picking up again. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's also really important for them given that we're

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<v Speaker 1>in a rising rate environment, because they'll obviously benefit from that.

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<v Speaker 1>So if we take a step back and we think

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<v Speaker 1>about what you and your team did last week when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to covering all the other companies that reported

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<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and well far Agoing more, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>what's the takeaway for not just the most recent quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>but but how the year looks even beyond looking at

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer what about these companies businesses? UM, I think

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<v Speaker 1>takeaways are pretty there was a pretty solid picture. I

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<v Speaker 1>think there are some nuances to JP Morgan's earnings. UM

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<v Speaker 1>In particular, UM, we saw that JP Morgan, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>it's set aside one point nine billion and it's as

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<v Speaker 1>a kind of reserve PRISIP provision for the bank to

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<v Speaker 1>cover bad debt, and it's cited both the war in

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine and it also cited kind of recessionary headwinds. Now

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<v Speaker 1>it played that down a lot and said that they

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<v Speaker 1>have to do this under a particular accounting standard. But

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<v Speaker 1>nonetheless it they they it indicates that they see the

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<v Speaker 1>probability of a recession going from sort of very low

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<v Speaker 1>to just low. So UM. I think perhaps one of

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<v Speaker 1>the takeaways from all of the earnings is that there

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<v Speaker 1>are concerns about future growth. Concerns about future growth go ahead, creaty.

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to ask about the training revenue because

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<v Speaker 1>I know you started off talking about volatility and how

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of these companies are really taking advantage of it.

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<v Speaker 1>But what happens when the volatility goes away? Ultimately the

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<v Speaker 1>selling has to stop, right and we only have about

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<v Speaker 1>forty got I mean, that's a great question. And we

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<v Speaker 1>kept thinking that the volatility to volatility would end. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We had COVID and then as that receded, we thought

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<v Speaker 1>it would end. We then had inflation. UM. We now

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<v Speaker 1>have the Ukraine situation so that it can't be completely sustainable. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But we haven't had the absolute quiet calm period yet

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<v Speaker 1>where we see them normalize. So you know, big questions

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<v Speaker 1>remain about what actually normalizing means for these banks um

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<v Speaker 1>and trading and their trading businesses which just had a

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<v Speaker 1>bonanza of the quarter. This is why we love having

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<v Speaker 1>you join us. Sally Bigwhell financed Team Lee for Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>new Shares a Bank America by the way, now higher

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<v Speaker 1>by four point two percent. Sally's with us in the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studio in New York. This is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, you all might remember last

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<v Speaker 1>week somebody by the name of Elon Musk, the wealthiest

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<v Speaker 1>person in the world according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index,

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<v Speaker 1>set down for an extended interview with Chris Anderson of

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<v Speaker 1>TED in Vancouver, and there he talked about a quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote plan B if his Plan A for taking Tesla

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<v Speaker 1>private doesn't work out. This is something that Max Chafkin,

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<v Speaker 1>features editor at Bloomberg Business Week, writes about. You can

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<v Speaker 1>read Max's story now on the Bloomberg Terminal. Also at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com. Slash A Business Week joining us now

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<v Speaker 1>is editor Joel Webber as well. He is the editor

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg business Week, and he joins us on the

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<v Speaker 1>access line from Brooklyn along with Max. Joel, Uh, before

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<v Speaker 1>we talk about Plan B, we really need to understand

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<v Speaker 1>what's plan as. Yeah, that's a great question. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're all still trying to figure that out. But um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Ellen obviously has made uh this offer. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll see if it actually comes to the deal actually

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<v Speaker 1>comes to fruition. In the meantime, you know, the Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>board is opted for a poison pill. So all of

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<v Speaker 1>this very dramatic has played out online, uh since since

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<v Speaker 1>the news broke on on Thursday morning. Um, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Max in the middle of it, I'm sort of like, Max,

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<v Speaker 1>what's your taking all of this? And he raises a

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<v Speaker 1>good point, which is, you know, this guy's CEO of

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<v Speaker 1>two publicly traded companies, and you know, like what would

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<v Speaker 1>it be like to have him on a third company?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, like we you know, we don't really know,

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<v Speaker 1>and that that plan A what's it looked like? Max? Yeah, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, Joel, I mean the previous uh chief

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<v Speaker 1>executive of Twitter was constantly getting hammered by investors for

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<v Speaker 1>having two jobs. Remember Jack Dorsey was the founder of

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<v Speaker 1>co founder of Twitter. Also was uh CEO of Square

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<v Speaker 1>which is now called Block and and and there was

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<v Speaker 1>this whole drama with it with a bunch of activist

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<v Speaker 1>investors over the fact that the two jobs that was

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<v Speaker 1>too many as far as twitters investors are concerned. Elon Musk,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, has something like, you know so many I've

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<v Speaker 1>kind of lost count. Right, you have the two the

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<v Speaker 1>two big ones, plus you have the tunnel thing, you

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<v Speaker 1>have the you know, you have the AI thinks you

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<v Speaker 1>have brain implants. And now he started proposing um to

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<v Speaker 1>take on another job. And I think anyone who who

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<v Speaker 1>watched Um that Ted interview that you that you bring

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<v Speaker 1>up saw, you know, somebody who is very good at,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, generating media attention and getting people to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about him. But but there wasn't really there isn't as

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<v Speaker 1>far as I can tell, any kind of plan um

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<v Speaker 1>either for how Elon Musk will kind of go through

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<v Speaker 1>with this proposed acquisition or what he would do with

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<v Speaker 1>it once he acquires it. Maxie want us through. And

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<v Speaker 1>this is just for the benefit of our listeners what

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<v Speaker 1>a poison pill actually is, because this was referenced multiple

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<v Speaker 1>time in your story. Uh so, yeah, have poison pill

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<v Speaker 1>is basically a way for the Border directors to allow

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<v Speaker 1>other shareholders to acquire shares and essentially dilute, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>dilute the stake of of whoever the attacker is in

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<v Speaker 1>this case, be Elon Musk. And it's it's a way

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<v Speaker 1>to to basically allow the board to keep control of

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<v Speaker 1>the situation and and hopefully as far as they're sort

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<v Speaker 1>of you don't negotiate with Musk and you know, or

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<v Speaker 1>whoever get them to a higher price. UM. This is

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<v Speaker 1>something that's commonly used in UM in these kind of situations.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's also part of what's driving this is because

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<v Speaker 1>Musk's offer, while while it's higher than it will than

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<v Speaker 1>the stock price was when he first you know, started

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<v Speaker 1>investing in Twitter back in March, it's actually quite a

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<v Speaker 1>bit lower than than where the stock was, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>even you know, as as as really as like last fall.

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<v Speaker 1>So so from the Border director's point of view, Elon

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<v Speaker 1>Musk has kind of made a low ball offer, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and and they want to negotiate, and Musk um it seems,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, rather than trying to negotiate is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as he does taking this to Twitter and and and um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, tweeting about the possibility of a tender offer.

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<v Speaker 1>All they didn't seem done anything. Um and and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>suggesting or kind of implying that there might be other

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<v Speaker 1>investors who might join him. But it's all extremely sort

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<v Speaker 1>of theoretical, and it you know, makes for great content,

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<v Speaker 1>but but it's not clear that any of this goes anywhere. Hey, Max,

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<v Speaker 1>I know you did a lot of reporting about Elon

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<v Speaker 1>Musk's early years for your book The con Trary and

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<v Speaker 1>Peter Teal and Silicon Valleys Pursuit of Power. What do

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<v Speaker 1>we know about the way that Elon Musk thinks about

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<v Speaker 1>quote unquote free speech, the way that he perhaps would

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<v Speaker 1>think about rules and regulations when it comes to Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>if he were the person to actually take it over.

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<v Speaker 1>Musk is um has some libertarian tendencies and um, and

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<v Speaker 1>he's he's talked, he talked about them at times. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>On the other hand, Um, he's also somebody who um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know who his sort of main political belief in

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<v Speaker 1>so Fur, you know, has has expressed political beliefs has

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<v Speaker 1>been around climate change, and in particular, you know, government

0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:02.800
<v Speaker 1>support for companies like Tesla that are you know, interested

0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:04.720
<v Speaker 1>in doing something about that, so which is which is

0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:07.000
<v Speaker 1>not very libertarian. I think it's fair to say his

0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.720
<v Speaker 1>um political beliefs are are are pretty fuzzy or or

0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.199
<v Speaker 1>or you know, this is maybe just not articulated in

0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:15.840
<v Speaker 1>in any kind of like clear way. He's been somebody

0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:18.640
<v Speaker 1>who's been sort of very in favor of helping himself

0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:21.960
<v Speaker 1>and helping his companies and and and starting innovative businesses.

0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 1>But but hasn't you know, expressed you know, huge you

0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:28.079
<v Speaker 1>know things on political issues, you know, on free speech.

0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.280
<v Speaker 1>I think some of what's going on here with Musk,

0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, I I think he probably agrees with that

0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:36.199
<v Speaker 1>that general idea. I think he also realizes that there

0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.680
<v Speaker 1>is a huge constituency of people out there for this message.

0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:41.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, we're seeing especially on you know, sort of

0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:44.800
<v Speaker 1>like right wing media, right wing talk radio itself and

0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.600
<v Speaker 1>so on. There. You know, they're getting very very excited

0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.040
<v Speaker 1>about the idea of Elon Musk coming and taking over

0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 1>Twitter and making it a free speech social network because

0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:55.880
<v Speaker 1>of course, you know, the subtext is they would allow

0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, Donald Trump back on the platform, and it

0:12:57.880 --> 0:12:59.880
<v Speaker 1>becomes this kind of um, you know, almost like a

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:04.239
<v Speaker 1>dog whistle to to get um, you know, get enthusiasm

0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.560
<v Speaker 1>from from conservatives. So I think some of that is

0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:08.560
<v Speaker 1>Musk is sort of doing some of that, responding to

0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.680
<v Speaker 1>some of that. Remember, he is, you know, an amazing marketer.

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.800
<v Speaker 1>He's somebody who did the impossible with Tesla, where where

0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, when he started the when he got involved

0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 1>in the company, you know, electric cars were seen as

0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.440
<v Speaker 1>this kind of wimpy thing that they were not capable,

0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 1>and he's you know, created this enormous automaker, you know,

0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:28.400
<v Speaker 1>one of the best selling um cars in the world

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:31.560
<v Speaker 1>at this point and um, and he's done that by

0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.080
<v Speaker 1>by with his amazing marketing. And I think we're seeing

0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 1>some of that playing out in real time where where

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.839
<v Speaker 1>Elon must have kind of found a new way to

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.560
<v Speaker 1>to to generate attention and you know, maybe it ends

0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:44.240
<v Speaker 1>with him, um, you know, taking over Twitter or something,

0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:46.800
<v Speaker 1>but it may also just end as another one of

0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 1>these you know, crazy uh episodes in the Elon reality show,

0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.320
<v Speaker 1>which I guess Max, you know it raises I mean,

0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:56.960
<v Speaker 1>you've you've so elegantly explained sort of master plan and

0:13:57.000 --> 0:14:02.720
<v Speaker 1>there has always been this master plan, right like electrified vehicles, ads,

0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:06.720
<v Speaker 1>solar like it all kind of made sense. How does

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.800
<v Speaker 1>Twitter fit into that? If at all, it doesn't fit

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.200
<v Speaker 1>into it. That's what's so strange about this. I mean,

0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>Musk has, as you say, Joel, you know, been super

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:19.080
<v Speaker 1>articulate on the on sort of the subject of of

0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:23.080
<v Speaker 1>of SpaceX and Tesla, and he's he's he's he's been

0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.560
<v Speaker 1>he's been very clear that what he's trying to do is,

0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, accelerate the development of green technologies. That's with

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 1>with Tesla, with SpaceX is rock company. It's um, create

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:36.920
<v Speaker 1>these capabilities that will help you know, our our civilization, uh,

0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 1>survive in the event of something something terrible happening. And

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.080
<v Speaker 1>and those goals you know, are are very lofty and

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:47.120
<v Speaker 1>and they've gotten you know, his fans very excited with Twitter.

0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 1>If you're paying attention to that interview at Ted, you know,

0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 1>he tried. He he said that you know, Twitter, if it,

0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.240
<v Speaker 1>if it has free speech, it will be able to

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 1>preserve global freedom or something like that. Um And so

0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 1>maybe he'll be able to kind of stitch it all together.

0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 1>But I think the main reason to be skeptical of Musks,

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 1>ever bail, is that they don't really fit into this

0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.240
<v Speaker 1>mass plan. Oh it is a great read, and check

0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:14.840
<v Speaker 1>it out. It's online, It's on the Bloomberg terminal. Max Chafkin,

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:18.040
<v Speaker 1>Features editor for Bloomberg business Week. He's also the author

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.680
<v Speaker 1>of The Contrarian Peter Teel and Silicon Valley's Pursuit of Power.

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:24.080
<v Speaker 1>Also Joe Webber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. You're listening

0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:29.160
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with

0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:34.520
<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 1>it's not just tax Day, but it's also Earth Month

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.320
<v Speaker 1>because Earth Day is coming up, and we think a

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.600
<v Speaker 1>lot about I think the products that we use, and

0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:45.680
<v Speaker 1>increasingly consumers are thinking about the products that they use

0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:48.120
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to their impact on the environment. And

0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:51.200
<v Speaker 1>one company that was relatively early to the way the

0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:55.000
<v Speaker 1>consumers think is Seventh Generation. They make household and personal

0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:58.000
<v Speaker 1>care products companies. It was it was acquired by Uni

0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.640
<v Speaker 1>Lever back in and we're pleased to have back with us.

0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.200
<v Speaker 1>Allison Wrightner, she's CEO of Seventh Generation. She joins us

0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:08.040
<v Speaker 1>via zoom from Burlington, Vermont. Alison, how are you hi?

0:16:08.080 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 1>How are you. Thank you so much for having me back. Hey,

0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:12.400
<v Speaker 1>it's good. Good to have you with us. I do

0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:14.120
<v Speaker 1>want to just quickly say we did try to have

0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.680
<v Speaker 1>you last week. There were some problems with the telephone.

0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:19.840
<v Speaker 1>Maybe the cell service in Burlington wasn't so fantastic. So

0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 1>we apologize to our viewers and our listeners, and we

0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 1>are really glad to have you back with us. Um,

0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:26.200
<v Speaker 1>give us an update on how things are going at

0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:28.600
<v Speaker 1>seventh generation and what you're seeing, because we talk a

0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:31.280
<v Speaker 1>lot about inflation. This is the probably the word that

0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:33.680
<v Speaker 1>I say the most apart from Bloomberg, every single day.

0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:35.720
<v Speaker 1>And I got to ask you, You've been at seventh

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 1>generation for years now, more than a decade, and I'm

0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:43.160
<v Speaker 1>wondering if you've ever seen the raw materials costs that

0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:47.520
<v Speaker 1>go into seventh generation products rise like they are right now. Yeah,

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.120
<v Speaker 1>So if I could have a penny like you for

0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:52.920
<v Speaker 1>every time I've said inflation over the course of the

0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 1>last year. It's a kind of a running joke these days.

0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.800
<v Speaker 1>But what I will tell you is that we are

0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.480
<v Speaker 1>not a mute I think like many companies right now,

0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:04.920
<v Speaker 1>especially in the categories that we operate in, we are

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 1>seeing a true on cost of materials and commodities that

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.920
<v Speaker 1>we've never seen before. UM. But I think for our

0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:15.840
<v Speaker 1>business specifically, UM, we're moving along the same lines as

0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 1>our category and our counterparts. So I think we're all

0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 1>in this together and for seven times specifically, I think

0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:25.119
<v Speaker 1>what this conversation around how we show up in market

0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:28.440
<v Speaker 1>and the cost of doing business these days has really

0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:31.440
<v Speaker 1>brought to the table an important question around what choices

0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:33.879
<v Speaker 1>do we need to make in order to protect what

0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:38.000
<v Speaker 1>we stand for. We invest significantly in materials like plant

0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:42.200
<v Speaker 1>based ingredients and post consumer recycled materials, all of which

0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.120
<v Speaker 1>is an on cost for us, especially in today's environment.

0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:47.560
<v Speaker 1>So we're doing everything we can to make sure that

0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>our point of difference remains strong and true during these

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:54.240
<v Speaker 1>really volatile times. Talk to us a little bit about

0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:56.520
<v Speaker 1>the costs of it, because I think when people think

0:17:56.560 --> 0:18:00.800
<v Speaker 1>about green products or organic products, or just products that

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:03.000
<v Speaker 1>are prepaps mainly the United States and help the environment,

0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:05.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people kind of associate that with Okay,

0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.320
<v Speaker 1>well that's going to cost more. Talk to us about that.

0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:11.880
<v Speaker 1>Are they wrong to think that? Sure? So I will

0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:14.600
<v Speaker 1>say the strategy of our company is to make sure

0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:18.600
<v Speaker 1>that everyday household materials made with better for you ingredients

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.400
<v Speaker 1>like plant based ingredients are at an accessible price. So

0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:25.399
<v Speaker 1>it's our hope to dispel that myth that you know,

0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.080
<v Speaker 1>to buy a natural product means you need to pay more.

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:30.840
<v Speaker 1>But well, what I will say is that the ingredients

0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:34.119
<v Speaker 1>that we put into our products do cost more than

0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.919
<v Speaker 1>the average materials, and the reason why is that they

0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:39.919
<v Speaker 1>haven't scaled yet. Right, So, I think there's more virgin

0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:44.160
<v Speaker 1>plastic available today than post consumer recycled plastic, and so

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:46.920
<v Speaker 1>our hope is that as these ingredients scale and more

0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.880
<v Speaker 1>and more companies are using them, actually the cost would

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:54.280
<v Speaker 1>go down. Alison, I'm wondering about the equation that you

0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.359
<v Speaker 1>and your team do when it comes to rising costs

0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:01.040
<v Speaker 1>and consumer appetite for those rising costs. We talk about

0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:04.800
<v Speaker 1>inflation hating consumers at the gas pump, at the restaurants

0:19:04.800 --> 0:19:06.760
<v Speaker 1>they go to, at the grocery store, and certainly on

0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:09.840
<v Speaker 1>the aisles when they're buying cleaning products. At what point

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.439
<v Speaker 1>do the does the premium that's put on a product

0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.879
<v Speaker 1>like seventh generation cause a consumer to think twice and

0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:19.040
<v Speaker 1>go to that one that's not necessarily made with plant

0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:23.360
<v Speaker 1>based ingredients. What's the calculation there. Yeah, so it's it's

0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>a great question and one that we've spent again a

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:28.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of time really wrestling with here at seventh Generation

0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:30.720
<v Speaker 1>over the year. And what I will say is our

0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 1>number one priority today is the quality of the product itself. Um.

0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:38.680
<v Speaker 1>So when we look at the value equation about our investments,

0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:41.000
<v Speaker 1>I think we look at the full funnel. And so

0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:43.440
<v Speaker 1>for us to make sure that we are keeping our

0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:47.359
<v Speaker 1>products at an approachable price point without sacrificing ingredients, it

0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:50.080
<v Speaker 1>means we might spend a little less on marketing or

0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 1>advertising throughout the course of the year, but we know

0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:56.320
<v Speaker 1>our product really stands um and works the way consumers

0:19:56.359 --> 0:20:01.480
<v Speaker 1>expected to. There we go sorry about that else and

0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.000
<v Speaker 1>talk to us a little bit about not just your business,

0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:07.480
<v Speaker 1>but businesses broadly. How can they fight against climate change?

0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.160
<v Speaker 1>Is there's something that kind of applies or rule thumb

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:13.720
<v Speaker 1>that applies to business broadly? How, yes, I mean, business

0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>is going to be what changes our future. I deeply

0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:18.480
<v Speaker 1>believe in that. It's one of the key reasons that

0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:21.120
<v Speaker 1>I came to seven Gen a decade ago is that

0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:24.000
<v Speaker 1>I believe business is the force of good and really

0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:26.800
<v Speaker 1>can drive that change. You know, I think two key

0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:29.920
<v Speaker 1>things that I would that we are looking at right now. One,

0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:32.880
<v Speaker 1>I think um really the call to action in our

0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:36.520
<v Speaker 1>industry to drive concentrated products. And so what I mean

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:39.360
<v Speaker 1>by that is at home care specifically, there's a ton

0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:41.919
<v Speaker 1>of waste. When you walk down the logic detergent aisle,

0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:44.679
<v Speaker 1>I think you see these big plastic jugs filled with

0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:47.960
<v Speaker 1>water and ingredients, and so we have a huge opportunity

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:51.880
<v Speaker 1>to really change how consumers behave and buy, and collectively,

0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:55.200
<v Speaker 1>both myself and my competitors make sure that we're driving

0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:59.400
<v Speaker 1>consumers towards much smaller, yet still performing products. And so

0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:02.520
<v Speaker 1>that's really what we're focused on from an industry perspective.

0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:05.240
<v Speaker 1>The other call to action right now is making sure

0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:08.200
<v Speaker 1>that we are all doing our part to educate consumers.

0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:11.120
<v Speaker 1>I think none of this is possible unless consumers are

0:21:11.160 --> 0:21:15.000
<v Speaker 1>really making different choices at home. And also you think

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.800
<v Speaker 1>their voice and their vote to make sure that we

0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:21.960
<v Speaker 1>are making a just transition to clean energy. We we

0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:24.159
<v Speaker 1>only have like ten seconds for this last question, But

0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 1>how do you start shopping marketing team lead and become

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:31.360
<v Speaker 1>CEO in ten years ten seconds? You believe in what

0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:34.080
<v Speaker 1>you stand for. I think what brought me here ten

0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:37.680
<v Speaker 1>years ago with belief that business could be done differently

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.679
<v Speaker 1>in passion for this space, and that's given me tons

0:21:40.680 --> 0:21:43.800
<v Speaker 1>of different experiences here over the last ten years. And

0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:47.000
<v Speaker 1>so just keep believing in what you're doing, um and

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:49.240
<v Speaker 1>make sure you're learning along the way. Allison right in,

0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:52.360
<v Speaker 1>their chief executive officer at Seventh Generation, joining us via

0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:55.119
<v Speaker 1>zoom from Burlington, Vermont. Really great to have you on

0:21:55.160 --> 0:21:58.199
<v Speaker 1>the program. Allison. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. This

0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:04.000
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Radio. Yeah, I'll bet you let me drive.

0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:12.840
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I want to drive.

0:22:11.560 --> 0:22:19.919
<v Speaker 1>It's a good question. This is good Drive to the

0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:26.479
<v Speaker 1>Clothes music on Bluebird Radio. Well, we've already made it

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:28.880
<v Speaker 1>to the Drive to the close just about ten minutes ago.

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:31.720
<v Speaker 1>In today's trade volume is still light. We are seeing

0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:35.040
<v Speaker 1>some selling into the clothes on this April eighteenth. Let's

0:22:35.040 --> 0:22:38.120
<v Speaker 1>get into it with Leo Kelly, founder and CEO at

0:22:38.280 --> 0:22:41.240
<v Speaker 1>Verden's Capital Advisors. Leo joins us once again on the

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:43.800
<v Speaker 1>phone from Hunt Valley, Maryland. Leo, we haven't spoken since

0:22:43.840 --> 0:22:47.200
<v Speaker 1>the end of last year. How are you all right? Well? Thanks,

0:22:47.280 --> 0:22:48.960
<v Speaker 1>good to be on the show. Guys, it's good to

0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:51.360
<v Speaker 1>have you back with us. Uh. The first quarter, as

0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 1>you write, thanks to our notes from our producer Paul Brennan, Well,

0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:56.639
<v Speaker 1>it was miserable, but you say it shouldn't have been

0:22:56.640 --> 0:22:58.680
<v Speaker 1>a surprise. You kind of called it to us back

0:22:58.680 --> 0:23:01.920
<v Speaker 1>in December. Um, what about the second quarter. We're starting

0:23:01.960 --> 0:23:04.199
<v Speaker 1>to hear from companies right now how they did in

0:23:04.200 --> 0:23:06.399
<v Speaker 1>the first quarter, their outlook for the year, for the

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:10.080
<v Speaker 1>remainder of the quarter. How should investors be thinking, Well,

0:23:10.119 --> 0:23:13.080
<v Speaker 1>I think investors need to start to come to grips

0:23:13.119 --> 0:23:16.320
<v Speaker 1>with the fact that volatility is going to be back,

0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:19.680
<v Speaker 1>and not the kind of volatility you see once every

0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:22.199
<v Speaker 1>couple of years when we have a bear market, but

0:23:23.040 --> 0:23:27.200
<v Speaker 1>sustain volatility, and that we are going to have a

0:23:27.280 --> 0:23:30.840
<v Speaker 1>secular change in interest rates in front of us, and

0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:33.800
<v Speaker 1>that's going to create a more violatle market environment. So

0:23:33.920 --> 0:23:38.960
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be this tug and pull between earnings UM

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:42.200
<v Speaker 1>and the strength of the consumer versus inflation and higher

0:23:42.240 --> 0:23:46.120
<v Speaker 1>interest rates and higher energy prices. So I would say

0:23:46.280 --> 0:23:49.120
<v Speaker 1>get ready for a voltal year. I feel like it's

0:23:49.160 --> 0:23:52.520
<v Speaker 1>pretty consensus to say that inflation is going to stick around.

0:23:52.520 --> 0:23:55.600
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be persistent, um at least uh. Even

0:23:55.640 --> 0:23:58.680
<v Speaker 1>after peaks, it will remain quite elevated for years and years.

0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:02.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious though, what happens afterwards. Are we looking at

0:24:03.240 --> 0:24:07.159
<v Speaker 1>a steve drop in consumer prices? Are we looking at deflation?

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:12.800
<v Speaker 1>What do you see past the current status quo? Well, yeah,

0:24:12.880 --> 0:24:15.760
<v Speaker 1>it's it's consensus now. I mean we we've been kind,

0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:18.879
<v Speaker 1>we've been growing for about a couple of years. That

0:24:18.920 --> 0:24:22.560
<v Speaker 1>inflation is here and it's not transitory. And I would

0:24:22.680 --> 0:24:28.200
<v Speaker 1>say that that everyone's jumping on the bandwagon today. That said, again,

0:24:28.280 --> 0:24:30.920
<v Speaker 1>we think this is more of a secular change. There

0:24:31.040 --> 0:24:35.040
<v Speaker 1>is so much capital flooding the system that I think

0:24:35.080 --> 0:24:37.360
<v Speaker 1>folks got lulled to sleep with this one to two

0:24:37.400 --> 0:24:41.760
<v Speaker 1>percent inflation that went on for decades, and so with

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:45.000
<v Speaker 1>with the low supply and the high demand and the

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:48.960
<v Speaker 1>massive capital inflow, I think we could see inflation at

0:24:49.080 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 1>higher elevated levels for a for the foreseeable future. Now

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:57.280
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't mean eight percent inflation. That may mean three

0:24:57.320 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 1>to four when we're used to one to two, but

0:24:59.760 --> 0:25:04.040
<v Speaker 1>that it is an insidious tax on the consumer, and

0:25:04.080 --> 0:25:06.399
<v Speaker 1>that can have an impact over the long over the

0:25:06.400 --> 0:25:09.560
<v Speaker 1>long haul. Now, all that said, that's not necessarily good

0:25:09.680 --> 0:25:14.200
<v Speaker 1>or bad inflation if you can, if it's meeting expectations,

0:25:14.240 --> 0:25:17.240
<v Speaker 1>you can invest in front of inflation and you can

0:25:17.240 --> 0:25:20.760
<v Speaker 1>still make money. It's just when inflation surprises you, like

0:25:20.840 --> 0:25:23.040
<v Speaker 1>it has in the last year with the level that

0:25:23.119 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 1>it's reached, that becomes a problem. So what would you

0:25:25.240 --> 0:25:27.280
<v Speaker 1>say to our audience right now, who is of course

0:25:27.359 --> 0:25:29.879
<v Speaker 1>looking to make money. What's the recommendation that you have

0:25:29.960 --> 0:25:33.160
<v Speaker 1>in this inflationary environment? How should they trade it? Well,

0:25:33.160 --> 0:25:34.600
<v Speaker 1>I think the first thing you have to do if

0:25:34.640 --> 0:25:37.760
<v Speaker 1>you're an investor today is you have to realize is

0:25:37.840 --> 0:25:40.520
<v Speaker 1>that which has worked in the past doesn't necessarily work

0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:44.080
<v Speaker 1>in the future. And if we're going to enter into

0:25:44.119 --> 0:25:47.399
<v Speaker 1>a secular change in the market. Remember we've been in

0:25:47.440 --> 0:25:53.639
<v Speaker 1>a bond bull market since forty year bull market, and

0:25:53.680 --> 0:25:56.959
<v Speaker 1>so if interest rates start to climb and inflation remains persistent,

0:25:57.640 --> 0:26:00.920
<v Speaker 1>then things are going to change dramatically over the next

0:26:01.119 --> 0:26:04.919
<v Speaker 1>period and the next secular cycle. And that means just

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:08.800
<v Speaker 1>putting money blindly into growth stocks and they magically go up.

0:26:09.240 --> 0:26:12.360
<v Speaker 1>Passive investing. Those are things that have worked. Well. We're

0:26:12.400 --> 0:26:15.919
<v Speaker 1>going into a different time period. We're gonna need active investing.

0:26:16.359 --> 0:26:20.560
<v Speaker 1>We're going to have to look for inflation sensitive investments

0:26:20.680 --> 0:26:25.879
<v Speaker 1>like financials and commodities and energy and industrials, but also

0:26:26.400 --> 0:26:30.679
<v Speaker 1>small verses, large and international. Over the US um you're

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:33.440
<v Speaker 1>gonna have to be very careful with your fixed income portfolios.

0:26:33.480 --> 0:26:35.679
<v Speaker 1>You can't just you can't just go buy the highest

0:26:35.640 --> 0:26:38.240
<v Speaker 1>shield anymore. You have to be aware of duration risk.

0:26:38.560 --> 0:26:41.360
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot happening here as a result of this change,

0:26:41.960 --> 0:26:46.720
<v Speaker 1>and given the current policy environment and temperature, I don't

0:26:46.720 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 1>think that's going to change anytime soon. One of the

0:26:50.880 --> 0:26:53.160
<v Speaker 1>pieces of commentary we got this morning was from Jon

0:26:53.240 --> 0:26:57.000
<v Speaker 1>hat C. S Overck Coleman Sacks. He predicted odds of

0:26:57.000 --> 0:27:00.040
<v Speaker 1>a recession in the next two years, and in the

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:02.840
<v Speaker 1>reasoning for his argument was that or one of the

0:27:02.880 --> 0:27:05.640
<v Speaker 1>reasoning for his argument was and the last fourteen tightening

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:08.200
<v Speaker 1>cycles we've seen since the end of World War two,

0:27:08.560 --> 0:27:11.919
<v Speaker 1>eleven have seen a recession in the last two years.

0:27:12.119 --> 0:27:14.960
<v Speaker 1>What it doesn't take into account is the tightening cycle

0:27:15.000 --> 0:27:18.600
<v Speaker 1>we saw post financial crisis and oh eight uh, and

0:27:18.640 --> 0:27:21.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that takes into account. Quie talked to

0:27:21.320 --> 0:27:24.320
<v Speaker 1>us a little bit about the precedent or we should

0:27:24.320 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 1>follow when it comes to predicting what this next tightening

0:27:27.280 --> 0:27:30.240
<v Speaker 1>cycle is going to look like in terms of risk assets,

0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:35.199
<v Speaker 1>do we follow the nineteen model where stocks rallied or

0:27:35.240 --> 0:27:38.280
<v Speaker 1>do we follow the historical trend, which is um a

0:27:38.359 --> 0:27:40.920
<v Speaker 1>recession in the next two years, and of course markets

0:27:41.200 --> 0:27:44.119
<v Speaker 1>pricing then in well, I think you hit it on

0:27:44.160 --> 0:27:45.520
<v Speaker 1>the head. I don't. I don't think you can look

0:27:45.520 --> 0:27:47.400
<v Speaker 1>at this in a vacuum and say, if the FED

0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:50.000
<v Speaker 1>is tightening, then we're going into recession. You have to

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:53.359
<v Speaker 1>put it up against several other factors. At the end

0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:56.960
<v Speaker 1>of the day, when the cost of capital exceeds the

0:27:57.040 --> 0:28:00.720
<v Speaker 1>return on investment capital, you're gonna head into over session.

0:28:01.440 --> 0:28:05.119
<v Speaker 1>And so when we look at cost of capital inputs today,

0:28:05.600 --> 0:28:08.920
<v Speaker 1>interest rates are climbing quickly, I don't think. I don't

0:28:08.960 --> 0:28:11.919
<v Speaker 1>think we fully appreciate we just went from the tenure

0:28:12.000 --> 0:28:15.080
<v Speaker 1>at point five to almost three percent here in a

0:28:15.119 --> 0:28:18.719
<v Speaker 1>reasonably short period of time. The FED is behind the curve,

0:28:19.320 --> 0:28:22.120
<v Speaker 1>so they have to catch up to what is very

0:28:22.240 --> 0:28:26.439
<v Speaker 1>quickly getting out of their hand inflation, and add to

0:28:26.520 --> 0:28:32.240
<v Speaker 1>that high energy prices, higher interest rates, higher wage inflation.

0:28:32.400 --> 0:28:34.560
<v Speaker 1>It's all in front of us. So I don't think

0:28:34.560 --> 0:28:37.040
<v Speaker 1>it's just the one input of the FED. I think

0:28:37.119 --> 0:28:40.880
<v Speaker 1>it's the FED catching up to a lot of other inputs. Now, again,

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:44.640
<v Speaker 1>you have to offset this against trillions of dollars of

0:28:44.680 --> 0:28:47.560
<v Speaker 1>capital which was poured into the system, and it is

0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:51.000
<v Speaker 1>in the consumers hands. The consumer's net worth is higher

0:28:51.040 --> 0:28:53.840
<v Speaker 1>because their four wing k's are higher and their houses

0:28:53.880 --> 0:28:57.360
<v Speaker 1>are worth more. So you have some positive news. We

0:28:57.440 --> 0:29:00.200
<v Speaker 1>have to rebuild inventories, I should say, for so we

0:29:00.200 --> 0:29:01.720
<v Speaker 1>have to catch up to demand. Right first, we have

0:29:01.760 --> 0:29:03.320
<v Speaker 1>to get to a point where you're not waiting nine

0:29:03.360 --> 0:29:06.280
<v Speaker 1>months for a washing machine or a bicycle. Once we

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:09.720
<v Speaker 1>hit there, then we have to rebuild inventories. So there's

0:29:09.760 --> 0:29:15.560
<v Speaker 1>a demand strength and that wave is crashing against inflation

0:29:15.800 --> 0:29:19.240
<v Speaker 1>and higher input costs. That's why we think there's volatility.

0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:21.880
<v Speaker 1>And yes, that's why I think there's a legitimate chance

0:29:21.880 --> 0:29:24.360
<v Speaker 1>of a recession. I kind of agree with that time frame.

0:29:24.680 --> 0:29:28.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't. We're not calling for that, but it's something

0:29:28.160 --> 0:29:31.480
<v Speaker 1>that we're looking at. So you just mentioned record liquidity,

0:29:31.720 --> 0:29:35.680
<v Speaker 1>record stimulus pumped into American consumers, pumped into the market.

0:29:35.760 --> 0:29:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Doesn't that arm the consumer with the ability to weather

0:29:40.800 --> 0:29:45.120
<v Speaker 1>this inflation? Well, sure arms the arms the consumer, but

0:29:45.160 --> 0:29:49.640
<v Speaker 1>they're also going into um a market with significantly higher

0:29:49.680 --> 0:29:53.160
<v Speaker 1>prices and higher input costs. So you're exactly correct. That

0:29:53.320 --> 0:29:56.520
<v Speaker 1>is the tug on one side, and and and the

0:29:56.560 --> 0:29:59.680
<v Speaker 1>push on the other is that the consumer has capital.

0:29:59.720 --> 0:30:03.000
<v Speaker 1>Now we are seeing consumer credit card debt rise. The

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:05.640
<v Speaker 1>consumer savings rate went from its peak in the twenties

0:30:05.720 --> 0:30:08.120
<v Speaker 1>store and COVID down to about six which is normal,

0:30:08.200 --> 0:30:12.120
<v Speaker 1>and it is falling. So the consumer is spending that money.

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:16.920
<v Speaker 1>And again we can't keep just keep pouring demand. If

0:30:16.960 --> 0:30:19.920
<v Speaker 1>you think about it logically, we have a problem where

0:30:19.920 --> 0:30:23.200
<v Speaker 1>we have too much money and too much demand chasing

0:30:23.240 --> 0:30:25.240
<v Speaker 1>too few good slash too much supply because of the

0:30:25.280 --> 0:30:30.120
<v Speaker 1>supply chain disruption and input costs. So so far the

0:30:30.160 --> 0:30:34.280
<v Speaker 1>current policy, both fiscal and monetary, is to increase demand.

0:30:34.880 --> 0:30:37.560
<v Speaker 1>You have too much demand and the current policies to

0:30:37.600 --> 0:30:40.200
<v Speaker 1>increase demand. So we have to get that under control

0:30:40.880 --> 0:30:44.320
<v Speaker 1>and we have to get our our supply, our supply

0:30:44.440 --> 0:30:47.400
<v Speaker 1>demand current back into balance. Leo Kelly always great to

0:30:47.440 --> 0:30:49.120
<v Speaker 1>chat with you. Thank you so much for joining us

0:30:49.120 --> 0:30:51.360
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Business Week and our countdown to the close.

0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:55.600
<v Speaker 1>Leo Kelly's founder and CEO Adverdence Capital Advisors. He joins

0:30:55.680 --> 0:30:59.840
<v Speaker 1>us on the Access line from Hunt Valley, Maryland. Thanks

0:30:59.840 --> 0:31:03.719
<v Speaker 1>for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:31:03.840 --> 0:31:06.000
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:31:06.000 --> 0:31:08.560
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0:31:08.720 --> 0:31:11.480
<v Speaker 1>or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News