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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. It is b Joey Paid, joe Bi Zapia

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Speaker 1: and it's a new year and I'm happy to say

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Speaker 1: those words. Today We've got a fun show as we

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Speaker 1: kick off our official videos for the year in Fantasy

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Speaker 1: baseball over here at Fantasy Pros MLB. Don't forget to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the YouTube channel so you can watch leading

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Speaker 1: off every single day when the season kicks off. Before

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Speaker 1: that does, we're gonna take you through the headlines going

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Speaker 1: into the twenty twenty four baseball season, some of the

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Speaker 1: biggest moves, the shakes, everything that's been going on right now,

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Speaker 1: including some of the adp and some big questions that

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Speaker 1: we still have remaining with more offseason ago, but the

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Speaker 1: biggest free agent acquisition all year. It's clearly one man,

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Speaker 1: and it's clearly now the full time voice of Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pros MLB. My dude and your favorite, the Welsh, Chris Welsh.

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Speaker 1: Everybody so Welsh. It's so nice to have you here

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Speaker 1: officially in this capacity as a full timer. You've been

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Speaker 1: with us the last few seasons, but now it's nice

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Speaker 1: that we avoid arbitration. We went right to the long

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Speaker 1: term contract with you, So this is great and I

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Speaker 1: can only hope that you have a no trade cause

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Speaker 1: that's my only hope.

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Speaker 2: Opt Outs are always questionable, but we made sure there

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Speaker 2: were lots of bonuses that were locked in and bottom line, put.

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Speaker 3: A ring on it, so I'm not wearing one. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: well I am married actually too.

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Speaker 4: I was gonna say, maybe your wife should talk to

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Speaker 4: you about that, but.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, get a little bit older, get a

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Speaker 2: little bit bigger sometimes, Joe, and let you let those

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Speaker 2: fingers breathe a little bit. No, but I'm very happy,

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Speaker 2: and I'm hoping and as I'm attempting to do put

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Speaker 2: my footprint on baseball here at Fantasy Pros pretty thoroughly.

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Speaker 2: So I've already dug deep in. We've got lots of

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Speaker 2: great plans. Joe and I have been talking through what

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Speaker 2: this entire preseason is going to look like, and this

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Speaker 2: is the best way to approach it. Right here is

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Speaker 2: setting you guys up, not just with like the ten

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Speaker 2: biggest acquisitions or changes or pieces of news.

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Speaker 3: These are the.

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Speaker 2: Ten biggest fantasy headlines, things that are going to impact

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Speaker 2: your brain when you start digging into your fantasy teams,

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Speaker 2: which you should do, you know, like right.

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Speaker 1: Now, Yes, now's a good time. We're gonna put our

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Speaker 1: feet in the dirt, Welsh, and I'm sure at some

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Speaker 1: point we'll put our feet in our mouths because that's

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Speaker 1: what we do best. We're gonna talk baseball, and that's

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Speaker 1: what I'm doing here. Plus, don't forget, the Fantasy Baseball

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Speaker 1: block book is available right now, Welsh and I wrote

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Speaker 1: up all that stuff for you.

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Speaker 4: Go get that on Amazon.

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Speaker 1: We've also got our rankings up over fantasybros dot Com

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Speaker 1: and draft Whizzard's going to be open for business for

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Speaker 1: MLB very quickly. Welsh's rankings up. Mine will be up

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Speaker 1: hopefully later in the week. But let's get to the headlines,

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Speaker 1: and let's start with the number one pick in fantasy.

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Speaker 4: Baseball is pretty easy.

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Speaker 1: Last year we had some contenders, but right now it's

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Speaker 1: Ronald Acunya. N FBC is saying it's Ronald Acunya. I

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Speaker 1: think we all agree. If it's Ronaldocunya, it's hard to argue.

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Speaker 1: After the Ronald Acunya season.

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Speaker 2: And I told you one thing off air, won't I'd

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Speaker 2: say exactly what it was but the dev team back

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Speaker 2: here working on You got an awesome team that are

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Speaker 2: working on the projections and everything for the site. And

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Speaker 2: the first thing that spit out Ronald m'cunya's numbers and

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Speaker 2: dollar value was so absurd. Everyone had to look at

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Speaker 2: each other and be like, is this right? And I

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Speaker 2: was like, now I got to bring this down a

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Speaker 2: little bit.

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Speaker 4: That's like ninety bucks a little too much.

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Speaker 1: Maybe, yeah, the salary cap draft realm, but he look,

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Speaker 1: he's coming off a forty one hundred season with seventy steels,

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Speaker 1: so you can understand. He also scored one hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty nine runs last year.

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Speaker 3: That's that's I mean, it's it was video game things

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Speaker 3: of what he did.

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Speaker 2: But as you're alluding to here, this is not about

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Speaker 2: Ronald d'acunya because we don't have much of a choice

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Speaker 2: in our first overall pick. We know exactly what we're doing,

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Speaker 2: but then the choices start to open up. And that's

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Speaker 2: what makes like kats really interesting this year, the Kentucky

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Speaker 2: Derby system of where you want to pick, because there

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Speaker 2: are at least three guys that kind of open up

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Speaker 2: this next year of who could go number two? And

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Speaker 2: I think that's kind of what opens up for fantasy

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Speaker 2: people is after Ronald d'acunya, is there a definitive and Joe,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, do you think that?

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Speaker 1: Well, the three contenders or at least the ones are

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Speaker 1: looking at early ADP and NFBC and some other places too.

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Speaker 1: Is Julio Rodriguez, which is typically where I would go

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Speaker 1: the outfielder, especially with outfield not being great this year.

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Speaker 1: I think you and I would both agree once again,

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Speaker 1: this is not the best year for alfield. So if

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Speaker 1: you're league where you're paying five outfielders, the relative position

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Speaker 1: value of that screams Julio to me.

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Speaker 4: And you know I had.

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Speaker 1: Stock in Julio last year for MVP, and it almost

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Speaker 1: started to look good at the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Let me tell you, Julio finished with a nice little flurry,

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Speaker 1: so I felt better about losing, but still it was

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Speaker 1: a loss. Bobby Witt Junior of Kansas City obviously coming

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Speaker 1: off a huge year of shortstopping Corbyn Carroll, our guy

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Speaker 1: last year, the mascot of the podcast. Also, we gave

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Speaker 1: away free stuff autographed by Corbin Carroll directly to our

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Speaker 1: winner of our home run contest last year at leading off,

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Speaker 1: but Mookie Betts also a contender. I mean, Kyle Tucker

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Speaker 1: certainly great player. For Nana, Tatisa is not out of

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Speaker 1: the realm of that discussion. But for me, it's Julio

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Speaker 1: because of the outfield and because I think that we

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Speaker 1: are still yet to see the full scale brilliance of

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Speaker 1: Julio on the main stage, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we've gotten some opening acts, but he

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Speaker 1: is ready to play the big room. So to me,

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Speaker 1: that's the guy. Whereas it's not taking anything away from

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Speaker 1: Wit or Carol. They're both great players, but that's where

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Speaker 1: I go. But where do you go if the number

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Speaker 1: two big?

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Speaker 2: You know, that's actually the one thing in this whole

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Speaker 2: process I wasn't really like sitting here and thinking about

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Speaker 2: was the outfield, was the position scarcity because outfield is

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Speaker 2: not the worst, but boy, it can get away from

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Speaker 2: me really quick. And there is kind of an element

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Speaker 2: of taking this entire season and saying, at any point,

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Speaker 2: if you had like two or three decisions to make,

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Speaker 2: maybe leaning on the scarcity an outfield would be that

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Speaker 2: in this case, I'm with you that Julio is there.

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Speaker 3: But Julio is my number three.

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Speaker 2: You would think I'm gonna say Corbyn Carrol, but I'm

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Speaker 2: not gonna say Corban Carrol actually gonna go with Bobby Wit.

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Speaker 2: So I'm moving away from the outfield side. I will

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Speaker 2: say this early Steamer projections, there are only three players

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Speaker 2: that are projected to have thirty thirty seasons Ronaldacune number one,

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Speaker 2: Julio Rodriguez, and Bobby Witt. And Bobby Witt put up

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Speaker 2: huge stolen based numbers last year he's projected, and just

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Speaker 2: think about this for him, he's projected for a thirty

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Speaker 2: forty season, knowing that he can overpass this. I do

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Speaker 2: think another thing to consider if you were to move

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Speaker 2: away from that, outside of maybe just saying shortstop is

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Speaker 2: kind of big, is that the team context is the

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Speaker 2: absolute worst with Bobby Witt. The more I'm talking about

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Speaker 2: it out loud, maybe I thought this was so definitive

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Speaker 2: that it is. I have Bobby Witt it too, But

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Speaker 2: when you say it out loud, you start to think, like, well,

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Speaker 2: better team in Arizona, better team theoretically as suppose in Seattle.

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Speaker 2: At this point they'll add some more pieces, but those

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Speaker 2: three are like one A to then this one B

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Speaker 2: of like Mookie Bets, Kyle Tucker and Fernando Tatis. The

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Speaker 2: first round is really rich. But who comes after Ronald Akunya.

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Speaker 2: It's no matter what gonna not be definitive. And I

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Speaker 2: believe in the early adyps over on NFBC, they favor you.

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Speaker 2: Julia Rodriguez is the number two from December on and

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Speaker 2: NFBC drafts the Draft Champions.

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Speaker 3: To be exact, he is number two. Bobby Witts three,

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Speaker 3: Corbyn Carrol is four. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Again, a lot of it has to do with the

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Speaker 1: league style you're playing in. But I think any of

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Speaker 1: those guys into your earlier point before we move on

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Speaker 1: to the next headline. If you're doing KDS, I think

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Speaker 1: you just take the four spot and then your in

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Speaker 1: gold and God forbid, Like you know you have the

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Speaker 1: four spot and then there's an injury, Okay, well you're you

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Speaker 1: have to settle for mookie bats.

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Speaker 4: Oh well, like life will go on.

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Speaker 1: Your team will still be really good at baseball.

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Speaker 2: You know, I did a Draft Champions just a couple

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Speaker 2: of days ago. I set my KDS one, two, four, three,

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Speaker 2: and I prioritize four over three just to be like,

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Speaker 2: you know what, I'll take the best of the four

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Speaker 2: that's after and then I mean, I guess in theory

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Speaker 2: you could have just gone one, four to two three

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Speaker 2: if you want. But I just flipped it up a

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Speaker 2: little bit because I really do think four is valuable

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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 1: All right, next headline, the Yankees flipped it up a

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Speaker 1: little bit and they brought in Juan Soto to join

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Speaker 1: Aaron Judge. It's quite a one two punch, and this

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Speaker 1: is our number two headline of the offseason. Obviously, we'll

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Speaker 1: get to Atani stuff in a second. Everybody, we don't

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Speaker 1: want to kill you with Otani stuff at the top.

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Speaker 4: But look, Wan Soto is still a free agent at

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Speaker 4: the end of this year.

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Speaker 1: Now we've moved into this Yankee Stadium ballpark, which is

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Speaker 1: a much different home run friendly environment.

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Speaker 4: I know some of the studies tell you, well.

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Speaker 1: Last year actually he would have hit quite so many

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Speaker 1: home runs, But like, look, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: Wan Soto's in a great spot here. I don't think

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Speaker 1: the spotlight of New York is going to be a

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Speaker 1: problem for him. He is a big time guy. If

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Speaker 1: you go back to the performance in the World Series,

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Speaker 1: He's not a guy that shied away from the spotlight

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Speaker 1: in any way, shape or form. And you know, up

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Speaker 1: until the latter part of last year, you and I

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Speaker 1: talked about in a leading off the numbers in San

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Speaker 1: Diego when he was at home. Ever since that trade,

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Speaker 1: they were not great for whatever reason. We don't know

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Speaker 1: what that reason is. Was it a visual thing of

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Speaker 1: seeing the baseball, was it the West Coast time thing,

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Speaker 1: who knows what it was, but it wasn't great. Now

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Speaker 1: he's got a chance to put out some monster numbers

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Speaker 1: and he's gonna hit the free agent market. So your

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Speaker 1: expectations here because we're looking at these guys going back

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Speaker 1: to back in ADP at twelve and eleven. So do

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Speaker 1: you think you have a preference I should say maybe

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Speaker 1: of one of these two, where you just happy to

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Speaker 1: get hither of them in a draft.

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Speaker 2: So what I am very curious about is like I

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Speaker 2: immediately went to positivity on once and the reason why

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Speaker 2: we talked about wan Soa here over Shoheo Tani is

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Speaker 2: we're also talking about the fantasy headline like this is

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Speaker 2: big impactful for Otani, but one Sota moving from San

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Speaker 2: Diego to New York I think really changed his value.

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Speaker 2: I put him into the single digits of my first

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Speaker 2: round from him not being whatever you said it was

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Speaker 2: like eleven or ten. It is interesting the ballpark factors

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Speaker 2: from an overall ballpark standpoint, Yankees are a little bit

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Speaker 2: closer to medium, where Padres have the second worst ballpark

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Speaker 2: factors according to Baseball Savant, but for left handed hitters,

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Speaker 2: Padres have the third worst and the Yankees have the

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Speaker 2: fourth worst, which is really fascinating. Yet his projections are

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Speaker 2: through the roof. Steamer's got him at almost forty homers,

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Speaker 2: one hundred plus run and RBI, double digit stolen bases,

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Speaker 2: and I.

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Speaker 3: Believe a two p eighty four average.

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Speaker 2: I mean it is literally more across the board at

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Speaker 2: every single spot except for stolen bases. I think Juan

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Speaker 2: Soto is ready to thrive in New York, and I'm

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Speaker 2: not gonna buy too much into whatever this might be

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Speaker 2: from a negative ish left handed ballpark factor for New York.

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Speaker 2: I think he is going to absolutely mash out there.

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Speaker 2: And I'm putting Sodo over Aaron Judge right now.

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Speaker 1: I really got the way to do the nerd voice.

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Speaker 1: I haven't done it for the baseball stuff for a

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Speaker 1: long Well, if I looked at the the the hardest

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Speaker 1: hit rate percentage of my if for the barrel over

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Speaker 1: over war, I crossed the bulbicon once. It was very difficult.

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Speaker 1: But with Sodo, I think the biggest thing and this

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Speaker 1: is the better in me. Like the Yankees are a

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Speaker 1: very public team, You're gonna pay through the roof for Soda.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna pay a premium for Sodo. Not that you

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Speaker 1: weren't anyway, like you were gonna pay first round value

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Speaker 1: for him. But if you're in those salary cap leagues,

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Speaker 1: especially in East Coast leagues, you.

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Speaker 4: Know you're in the barrel of a bunch of Yankee fans.

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Speaker 4: There's gonna be excitement.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna pay more of a premium, So you have

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Speaker 1: to decide whether or not you want to let that

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Speaker 1: go or you want to go after it. I'm very

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Speaker 1: excited about Sodo being there. I think Aaron Judge is

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Speaker 1: excited to have somebody else. I have concerns about the

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Speaker 1: rest of that lineup though, because I think it's got

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Speaker 1: huge question marks in it. We'll see just how good

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Speaker 1: the Yankees really are. But look, this goes a long way.

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Speaker 1: I think they're still very top heavy. You're gonna have

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Speaker 1: a lot of bounce back years potentially up for grabs.

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Speaker 1: But if they don't, are you wanting By the way,

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Speaker 1: I've always been a Sodo guy, you know that, So

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna lean towards Sodo. I mean, look, I'm

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Speaker 1: fine with either of them. I don't think there's the

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Speaker 1: biggest SINGUI little difference as a matter of like, you know,

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Speaker 1: Judge is probably gonna hit more home runs. Judge had

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Speaker 1: some injuries too in the past too that we have

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Speaker 1: to you know, factor in. So it has been pretty

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Speaker 1: durable player over his young career. And I would also say,

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Speaker 1: you know, in those obpagues, you make that decision there,

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Speaker 1: like you go ahead and you take one Soto because

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Speaker 1: he's been an OBP machine for his entire life. And

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Speaker 1: you know what, probably in those five by five leagues too.

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Speaker 1: You know, the the batting average for Judge has fluctuated

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Speaker 1: over the years. You know, you get the two eighties,

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Speaker 1: the three elevens, you know that that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: You know, with Juan Soto, I feel pretty good about.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's been to the three hundreds and then

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Speaker 1: he moved to San Diego and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: that average dropped the two forty one back up last

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Speaker 1: year to two seventy five. But I think he's more

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Speaker 1: of a three hundred kind of hitter and early in

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Speaker 1: his career ninety eight to eighty two rather three fifty

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Speaker 1: one three thirteen. I mean, I think this guy's get

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Speaker 1: a little bit more upside in the batting average too.

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Speaker 1: So let's move on to the next one here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's time to talk about Atona. He goes to the Dodgers.

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Speaker 4: For you know, millions and millions of.

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Speaker 1: Dollars, and it's it's a huge contract. He got a

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Speaker 1: hitting contract and he got a pitching contract because the Dodgers.

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Speaker 1: Obviously you're telling you Welsh he's pitching again, and that's good.

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Speaker 4: The only problem I have with.

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Speaker 1: This from a keeper standpoint in the fantasy world is

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Speaker 1: I don't like this whole mystery surgery that he had. Well,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't Tommy John, and we don't really talk about it.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy. That's the

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Speaker 1: only thing. And this year he's only a hitter. We

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Speaker 1: don't have to worry about that. In redraft leagues, I

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Speaker 1: can ask you two questions. Is he a first round

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Speaker 1: pick for you and Dynasty. Do you have faith that well,

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Speaker 1: everything just goes back to normal in twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: and he becomes the Otani menace to society that he's

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Speaker 1: been in the last two years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the first question is the most important

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Speaker 2: here to Fantasy, but I'll answered the other one real quick. Yes,

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Speaker 2: I absolutely think you make this contract with some of

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Speaker 2: its caveats all built around he's going to pitch, he

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Speaker 2: wants to pitch. Otani also kind of gets exactly what

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Speaker 2: he wants. There's no chance he's done with pitching, so

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Speaker 2: we're getting back there. So from a Dynasty perspective, I

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Speaker 2: don't think you have much to worry about from there.

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Speaker 2: For how you treat him this year, I think it's

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Speaker 2: really interesting because there is really no reason for him

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Speaker 2: to sit on any day. So he could put up

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty five maybe one hundred and sixty whatever,

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Speaker 2: get he could play every single day.

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Speaker 3: He could be more great on the bass paths. A

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Speaker 3: lot of chatter about.

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Speaker 2: Like, oh, he wants to have a triple crown, like

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Speaker 2: you could do those type of things, but he is

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Speaker 2: utill only so I think that is the big question here.

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Speaker 2: The name value itself. Hum, we boost up because it's Otani,

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Speaker 2: he's a Dodger. But where is the balance of no

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Speaker 2: position and locking down that util which is a little

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Speaker 2: different than usual by the way, in past years it's like, oh,

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Speaker 2: I took him, now I can't have your Lvarez. The

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Speaker 2: only thing you're taking away from yourself is like, oh,

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Speaker 2: you can't have JD. Martinez. That's like the only player

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Speaker 2: you're taking away with one util. So is the positionless

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Speaker 2: thing a hindrance to want to have his stats? And

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Speaker 2: I say no, I say he is a first round pick.

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Speaker 2: I think he's gonna pop as a thirty five to

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Speaker 2: forty homer guy twenty plus tonal. I think he could

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Speaker 2: be more aggressive on the bass paths of him. Being honest,

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Speaker 2: I think he could go twenty five thirty this year.

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Speaker 1: I think you don't have to worry about the pitchings.

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Speaker 3: That's my point.

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Speaker 1: I think that's something you definitely held back in the past.

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Speaker 1: But I'm with you. I think this guy's still a

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Speaker 1: first round pick even though it was a DH guy.

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Speaker 1: I forget that you're not clogging your DH spot or

339
00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,840
Speaker 1: utility spot. He is producing from there, so let's not

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Speaker 1: Forgaluk about this that productivity?

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Speaker 3: How about this uh show? Hey Atani or Aaron Judge.

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00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 1: Hmmm, that's an interesting one. I think i'd lean Judge,

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Speaker 1: but it's real close. What about you? I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: real you know, and he might close in that too.

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Speaker 4: They're telling you, Yeah, I think it's fifth.

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Speaker 3: I Thinktani's Judge.

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Speaker 1: Is eleven right now and Otani's a fourteen in the

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Speaker 1: current I mean they're right there.

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Speaker 2: There's an argument to say, like I want to say

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Speaker 2: Judge for like some obvious reasons outfield being kind of

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Speaker 2: a hindrance, also elite, elite powers. This might be a

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Speaker 2: really good time to jump back into the market early

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Speaker 2: early of betting like home run leader Aaron Judge and

354
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Speaker 2: getting like good odds. You should prioritize big power. But

355
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Speaker 2: the only thing is is that's like us pretending Otani

356
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Speaker 2: isn't a massive power guy. Like there's forty home run

357
00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:52,280
Speaker 2: potential with twenty plus stolen bases in maybe the greatest

358
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Speaker 2: one two three we have had in the last twenty years.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I off the top of my head, I

360
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Speaker 2: can't think of a better bets Tawny Freeman one two

361
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Speaker 2: three that's out there, which if he is sandwiched between them,

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Speaker 2: running RBI potential.

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Speaker 3: Is through the roof.

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Speaker 2: Oh it's great, I'm gonna say, Judge, but boy chuck

365
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Speaker 2: back in a month that might be different and don't

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Speaker 2: worry about the dh U till only thing.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think that's also there's no transition here for

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Speaker 1: Judge at all. I mean, not that I'm worried about

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Speaker 1: that for Otani, but it is a different stadium. It's

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Speaker 1: a different you know, it's still la I get it's

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Speaker 1: still California all that stuff, but I don't know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's still different team, different thing. You know, sometimes it's

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Speaker 1: stuff to get used to with Judge. It's just Judge

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Speaker 1: with the Yankees. So you know, if I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: whittling down to all the X factors, it's just a

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Speaker 1: little less to worry about when it comes to Judge.

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Speaker 1: So when you're making first round picks, says the stuff

378
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Speaker 1: you got to worry about. But regardless a great pick,

379
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Speaker 1: there's still some guys on the board for number four.

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Speaker 1: In our headlines here, Bellinger does not have a home.

381
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Speaker 1: Blake Snell does not have a home. I would even

382
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Speaker 1: throw Jordan Montgomery in that mix. Because I think that

383
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Speaker 1: guy sure is a better return on investment. He's probably

384
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Speaker 1: gonna go for cheaper than Blake Snell, and I think

385
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Speaker 1: you might get more consistency out of him. Snell obviously

386
00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,640
Speaker 1: Cy Young Winner, well we see this before Young and

387
00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,640
Speaker 1: then bust the following year. He is Blake Snell after all.

388
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,040
Speaker 1: Cody Bellinger a rebirth for him last season. So these

389
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Speaker 1: guys don't have landing spots. The question is in early drafting,

390
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 1: does this bother you at all? And where do you

391
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:14,360
Speaker 1: think they might end up? I know the Angels have

392
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Speaker 1: been a talk year for Blake Snell. We've also heard

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Speaker 1: either Toronto or Chicago, maybe going back there for Bellinger.

394
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Speaker 1: If I'm Bellinger, I go back to Chicago because that

395
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,320
Speaker 1: seemed to be working out pretty well and I don't

396
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Speaker 1: want to screw around with something that's working after I've

397
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Speaker 1: had so much time of things not working in Los Angeles,

398
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 1: so this was a good situation for him. I think

399
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 1: he should go back there. But what do you think

400
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Speaker 1: about these two and potentially even three Montgomery if you

401
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,000
Speaker 1: want to throw here in the mix too.

402
00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're fascinating because both of them have

403
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,240
Speaker 2: these big warts off of production. If you just look

404
00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,720
Speaker 2: at production as a whole, you go, holy crap. You

405
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 2: know we should be all in on Bellinger twenty twenty

406
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 2: season improved strikeout rate. The problem is is everything underlying

407
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 2: barrel percentage ended up being like the worst of his career.

408
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,600
Speaker 2: Hard hit percentage the absolute worst of his career. XBA

409
00:16:58,840 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 2: was down.

410
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 3: The strike outs obviously better, but.

411
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 2: You know what he did was he transformed his approach

412
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 2: in his swing and he ended up taking a lot

413
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,159
Speaker 2: off of his ability to have high end power. So

414
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 2: his destination is important. I'd heard rumors of Toronto. Don't

415
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 2: think that's gonna happen. I think it returns to Chicago

416
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 2: and actually think that helps his value. But it's so

417
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,320
Speaker 2: odd that they're both just sitting out there and they're

418
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 2: both don't have really high ADPs. And I don't think

419
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,920
Speaker 2: it's necessarily just because of the team. It's these guys

420
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 2: have such big worries, and I think nobody believes what

421
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,119
Speaker 2: happened with Bellinger, and I think if he goes to

422
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 2: the Cubs he sustains many other places he's gonna drop

423
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,919
Speaker 2: in value. I'm off of Bellinger this year. Snell is

424
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,360
Speaker 2: as risky as well, because obviously cy Young im men's

425
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:48,920
Speaker 2: strikeout numbers, but crazy walks, crazy crazy walks. My positive

426
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:54,080
Speaker 2: run on this is that he really transformed the pitching style.

427
00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,479
Speaker 2: You know, his curveball ended up having a fifty six

428
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 2: percent whift rate, one of the highest single pitch whift

429
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,639
Speaker 2: rates in base this year. The change up that he

430
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 2: always got screamed about, he threw it eighteen percent of

431
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,359
Speaker 2: the time, forty six percent whiffrate. He had a forty

432
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,680
Speaker 2: six plus percent whiff rate on three of his four

433
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:14,080
Speaker 2: pitches Elite. He just can't control Blake Snell. I actually

434
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 2: personally think the drafters are kind of sleeping on and

435
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,960
Speaker 2: I think the destination could bump him up, but I

436
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 2: think the wall.

437
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:21,360
Speaker 3: Dump him down down.

438
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 1: You Yeah, Like if it's the Angel, could even bump

439
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 1: him down a little bit or keep him wearing. I

440
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 1: think that's the most interesting thing. And again that's a

441
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 1: headline we'll be following every week here until we have clarity.

442
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:36,400
Speaker 1: Number five. Did early starting pitchers and pocket asis basically

443
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,560
Speaker 1: die into the glob right now? I mean last year

444
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 1: we talked about this, and this is a big headline

445
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 1: going into this year because we were head of the curve.

446
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 1: Last year, you and I were very pro specific strategy.

447
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 1: It was targeting the group of one A's, the clusters

448
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,200
Speaker 1: of pictures that Kevin Gossman's of the world per se,

449
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 1: the guys that the Joe Musgroves, you know, say we'll

450
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 1: take Joe Moscow will take this. There were a lot

451
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 1: of pictures that we thought had much better return on

452
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,600
Speaker 1: investment value. Luis Castillo, I think last year was one

453
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: of those guys, right. They weren't the guys going in

454
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,399
Speaker 1: the first two rounds. We faded them and it worked

455
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,640
Speaker 1: out very well. Plus also buying in bulk in those

456
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 1: rounds worked out. Is that gonna be the strategy for

457
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 1: this year too, because we're once again in a spot

458
00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 1: where you know you have one or two, maybe three

459
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 1: guys you can have that conversation about in the starting

460
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 1: pitcher realm that you think are the top guys the

461
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,880
Speaker 1: strider's cold. You want to throw Burns and Wheeler in there,

462
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,199
Speaker 1: and Castillo okay, But then after that, if you go

463
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 1: down here a little bit further, you might get a

464
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 1: Yamamoto at a discount of fra. Amber Valdez is a

465
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,200
Speaker 1: guy too that could be floating around there. We saw

466
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,880
Speaker 1: how good Freddy Parolta was. Logan Web is so consistent,

467
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 1: sangle with the strikeouts. There's a lot of opportunity here

468
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 1: to buy more than one guy as supposed to going

469
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 1: early pitcher. But where do you stand so far going

470
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 1: into the season, and that question, Yeah.

471
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:46,840
Speaker 3: Let me even flip it a tiny bit.

472
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 2: Is pocket aces was super popular. Early pitching has kind

473
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,160
Speaker 2: of been a staple. But there's been a big, massive

474
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 2: off season conversation and it has been I'm gonna let

475
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,640
Speaker 2: pitching drop in because of this glob and it kind

476
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 2: of started last year.

477
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 3: That's what you were alluding to.

478
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 2: You and I were pinpointing where a lot of the

479
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,920
Speaker 2: pitching values were instead of paying like high high prices,

480
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 2: are being very picky about where you pay the high prices.

481
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: But pocket ace has kind of died last year, so

482
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 2: dead this year. But what's interesting is the trend in

483
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 2: early drafts NFBC specific the biggest risers are pitchers, Like

484
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 2: pitching is coming back up, so as people are digging

485
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 2: in and starting to draft, we're not seeing necessarily any

486
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 2: pocket ace type of strategy or you know, two pitchers

487
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 2: going in the first three rounds. But the singular players

488
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 2: in December. That rose from November and October drafts all pictures,

489
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 2: all pictures.

490
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,000
Speaker 1: I think that's also a symptom of people digging in

491
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 1: and realizing, oh my, I don't like what I see

492
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 1: here at the bottom of this. Well, so I'm going

493
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 1: to prioritize some of the guys that I do like,

494
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 1: and I'll be more aggressive on them. I think that's

495
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 1: what's happening. It's not even so much that they love

496
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 1: the guys that they're moving up as much as they

497
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 1: don't like the guys that are bottom of that barrel

498
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 1: and they don't want to be swimming in there.

499
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 3: Yeah.

500
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:04,679
Speaker 2: And I think also just to add to it, is

501
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 2: everyone has this perception because so many you're like, really

502
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 2: smart people use this word glob and everyone thinks like, oh,

503
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: they're just like kind of all the same. But I

504
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,360
Speaker 2: think is actually happening is people are identifying what you're saying.

505
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 2: People are doing their work, They're identifying the tears better.

506
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,959
Speaker 2: And the understanding is I agree with this, there is

507
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 2: value in pitching way further than having to get like

508
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 2: two top five starting pitchers. Well, people are prioritizing, though,

509
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:34,439
Speaker 2: is getting one and then pairing that person with the

510
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,679
Speaker 2: upside later, the Bobby Millers, the Grayson Rodriguez is the.

511
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: The pe very well at times. Last year, Kyle Bradish

512
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 1: last year. I mean, there's guys that are out there.

513
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 1: Justin Steele still doesn't get enough credit. He's like the

514
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 1: fortieth pitcher off the board practically. Look, there's a lot

515
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 1: of discussion here to be had about these pictures. Well so,

516
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: and we're gonna have a lot. But I tell you

517
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: right now, I am. I brought up all the pictures

518
00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,159
Speaker 1: in the Black Book this year. I did all the

519
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: profiles ten Wordsworth. My big takeaway is I am again

520
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 1: fading the top tier. I will miss them, I love them,

521
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 1: I wish them the best, but I'm gonna hit that

522
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: middle tier hard. And I think that middle tier is

523
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: very productive. Yet again, and speaking of that tier that well,

524
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: this guy is not quite there. He's a little bit

525
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 1: higher than that, but I think it's gonna go even higher.

526
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: Is Yamamodo, who is now part of that Dodger incredible

527
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: investment in the off season. His ADP is all the

528
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 1: way up to fifty six right now. If you look

529
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 1: on the ECR rankings early too. It's funny because he's

530
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 1: at nineteen, and you've got Tyler Glass now at eleven.

531
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 1: I could see by the time we get to I

532
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 1: don't know, pictures and catchers reporting, or we have even

533
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 1: March first, maybe that even leap frogs itself. I just

534
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: think the buzz on this guy is going to be ridiculous.

535
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 3: And who did you say it was?

536
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 2: I actually might I have I have him above glass

537
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 2: now I think of my ranks.

538
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 3: I probably screwed that a little bit.

539
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, but what I'm saying is there's a gap now.

540
00:22:58,040 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna be a gap very long.

541
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, oh no, oh no, And I have it flipped.

542
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 2: I'm saying I have Yamamoto a bar ahead of the last,

543
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 2: ahead of the I'm trying to be but yeah, this

544
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 2: is a big one.

545
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 3: And this is one of so when I just told you.

546
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 2: The and also in that last question is kind of identifying,

547
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: like is the glob dead? It's not dead, but I

548
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: think the glob has multiplied. There's little globbies now, so

549
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:20,719
Speaker 2: everybody's talking about that.

550
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 3: There's just it that's called tierss by the way.

551
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, well, but I'm just saying, though it's called

552
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 2: tears by the way, tears are becoming more identifial identifiable.

553
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 2: Yamamoto is one of those pitchers that has risen obviously

554
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 2: with having a home with the Dodgers. In Draft Champions

555
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: since December one. He does have a men pick of

556
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: thirty overall. Thirty overall, so just think about that. That

557
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 2: is where somebody started making that investment. For perspective, Freddy

558
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 2: praltoo has a higher ADP, his men pick forty six,

559
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 2: Aaron Nola thirty nine. His ADP is fifty Tarik Skooble

560
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 2: one of the hottest names out there forty four men pick.

561
00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: So Yamamoto's upside in early Drafters is that projections are favorable.

562
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 2: Almost a ten k per nine, little over two walk

563
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 2: per nine, one hundred and eighty four innings and a

564
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,719
Speaker 2: sub four era. They don't know how to do that

565
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 2: in projections yet, but I'm in and Yamamoto is definitely,

566
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 2: definitely gonna be somebody you're gonna want to pay attention

567
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 2: to in that mid tier maybe starting off your SPS.

568
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 3: And he is on the rise.

569
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's gonna get very close to that

570
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 1: top ten by the time we get there, if not

571
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: in the top ten by the time we get to

572
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 1: the thick of draft season. All right, let's go to

573
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: some more headlines over seven. Here, are you ready for

574
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: the ADPs of some of these young players. Nolan Jones

575
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: at fifty five, Royce Lewis of forty nine, and CJ. Abrams,

576
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,719
Speaker 1: who if you were watching the show last year, we

577
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: talked about him as being one of these great late

578
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 1: round picks.

579
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 4: Take a shot.

580
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 1: He's got some pop, He's got a lot of speed.

581
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: With the change in stolen bases, my goodness, Abrams was

582
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: one of the great.

583
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 3: I screamed about those stolen bases. I screamed, screamed, I screamed.

584
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 4: We all screamed for CJ.

585
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: Abrams. There's some other guys to remember. Lane Thomas was

586
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: a guy we screamed about too. Who's a free pick?

587
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: Last year, there was a lot of good free stuff

588
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: in the dollar store. This year you got to pay

589
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 1: for stuff. I'm good with the Jones, you know, I'm

590
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: a big fan of his. How about these three guys, Lewis,

591
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: Jones and Abrams. You still buying at the ADPs that

592
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 1: they're currently going out, which is pretty steep?

593
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, you one hundred percent.

594
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 2: We went from Dollar General to Target for sure, and

595
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: they might keep going up all of them.

596
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 3: And that's the main thing to let you know.

597
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 2: There's a couple of these headlines is are you prepared

598
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: and are you ready for the ADPs of these players

599
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 2: that were great values last year because you are paying up.

600
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 2: Am I comfortable? I'm comfortable with Abrams and some people

601
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 2: just aren't. I am a little bit worried the power

602
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 2: is gonna depreciate, but I do think the stolen bases

603
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 2: are forty plus. He's good runs if you want to

604
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: go with a heavy stolen based strategy, I'm good. Am

605
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 2: I comfortable with Royce Lewis? I am, and some people aren't.

606
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 2: I think Royce Lewis can put up similar Gunner Henderson

607
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 2: numbers and he's usually going about a round or two later.

608
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 2: Projected twenty seven homers, thirteen stolen bases, two seventy batting

609
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: average this year. Am I comfortable with Nolan Jones?

610
00:25:59,400 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 3: I'm not.

611
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 2: I'm not as comfortable with Nolan Jones. Some high BABIP numbers.

612
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,679
Speaker 2: Colorado helps, for sure. He's a good OBP guy. He

613
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 2: stole some big basses, but his cost comes I think in.

614
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 3: A really high spot.

615
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 2: Though I will say he's outfield, and that's one of

616
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 2: those places that you want to be, but you're gonna

617
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 2: have to pay a top fifty price.

618
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 3: I trust the bat less with.

619
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 2: Nolan Jones than I do with Royce Lewis and cj Abrams.

620
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,719
Speaker 2: I trust the speed maybe more than anything of all

621
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 2: three of those guys.

622
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: Well, Nolan Jones last time I checked this playing in

623
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 1: Colorado still, so I'm gonna trust Colorado. I'm gonna trust it.

624
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna trust it all the way Bank, I'm gonna

625
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: take him anyway. I feel okay about Royce Lewis's value. Okay,

626
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit more in these show me stage

627
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: with Royce Lewis than you are and a lot of

628
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 1: other people. And then as far as C. J Abrams,

629
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 1: like we told you last year, I'm not ready to

630
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: annoint him either, but I think what you saw in

631
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 1: the second half of last year was very encouraging. And

632
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 1: if you recalled to I remember in season you did

633
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 1: trade videos. People dropped him in a lot of shallow leagues, right,

634
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 1: and I was doing Waiver Wire video about hey, you

635
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 1: should be picking up cj Abrams If people dropped in

636
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 1: like this is nut, and it was resolutely. But the

637
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: two of us did not waiver on this, and we

638
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 1: always thought, give it time, give it time, and sometimes

639
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 1: you gotta be patient with certain guys another and real quick.

640
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,239
Speaker 2: The last thing I want to add to it is

641
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: Abrams cost the most. But of these three, the biggest

642
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 2: buzz is with Nolan Jones. Men pick thirty three of

643
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 2: Royce Lewis, who's higher. Men pick twenty nine for CJ. Abrams,

644
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: who's twenty spots higher. Men pick thirty three for Nolan Jones.

645
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 2: He's the same highest pick as Royce Lewis and only

646
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 2: four spots below C. J.

647
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 3: Abrams. He yet their eightp is out. Nolan Jones has the.

648
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 2: Biggest widespread buzz going on about him. Colorado's safe. But

649
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: is that that safe? We'll see short sample size, but

650
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 2: he was pretty amazing.

651
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: Next headline is the buzz really isn't with Mike Trout

652
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: anymore at number eight. Mike Trout is a player that Look,

653
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: he hasn't played one hundred and fifty games of the

654
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 1: season since twenty sixteen. Wels, I mean, that's just the

655
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: hard truth of it. I know in twenty twenty two

656
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: we had a forty eighty season. It was terrific. The

657
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: stolen bases have gone. Now it's it's not a thing.

658
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: So in an era where now you're getting so many steels,

659
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: it's kind of interesting you're getting a discount on trout.

660
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: But the question is is it enough of a discount?

661
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: Do you like the trout adp at seventy two? Is

662
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: that fair?

663
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 4: Is that good? Is that still investable in your opinion?

664
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: Considering the time he always misses and now he doesn't

665
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 1: have Otani around him either to help out.

666
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: I think it's a completely fair question. But sometimes you

667
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: got to just look and say, is this too good

668
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 2: of a value as the risk? Is the juice worth

669
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 2: the squeeze? As I've been told over many years, an

670
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 2: acronym that I care a saying that I can actually

671
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: say properly.

672
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: Well, I'm hoping at some point you say it improperly,

673
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 1: but well I call.

674
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: It an acronym. So that was incorrect. So but it's

675
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 2: just yeah, that was right. I did something wrong, So

676
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 2: don't worry.

677
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 4: That was.

678
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: Four.

679
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 4: Something's changed, But Welshisms never do.

680
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 3: No, no, no that.

681
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 2: We got to start the Welshism Book this year, so

682
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 2: let's start collecting them and we'll do that at the

683
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:52,959
Speaker 2: end of the year. But my point is is like, Okay,

684
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 2: every year, you pay second round for Mike Trotty gets hurt,

685
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 2: you pay third round for Mike Trotty gets hurt, Wran,

686
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: you go fourth round. Now you're talking fifth or six round.

687
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 2: People are pushing him back. He's in the seventies or eighties.

688
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 2: If you want a little bit of positivity projections in

689
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 2: his favor. Thirty seven homers from Steamer almost one hundred

690
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: hundred round a two to sixty batting average. Strikeouts have

691
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: been a little bit higher. I think he's pressed.

692
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 3: He's risen those for three straight years. The health is.

693
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 2: The biggest question. So this is the balance. It's like,

694
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 2: do you think the production is still there from Trout?

695
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 3: I do? Is health the main issue?

696
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: Yeah?

697
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 3: Of course.

698
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: Can I stomach that in the seventies, yes, I can.

699
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: Especially with the theoretical upside of a forty one hundred,

700
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 2: one hundred guy.

701
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: You can't get that. It's hard to get that.

702
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 2: You can get that from maybe Kyle Schwarber with a two,

703
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 2: you know, five batting average. You can't get that in

704
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 2: the other spots. I think this is the deal time

705
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: and I will invest in Mike Trout, and I'll take

706
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: that risk this year in the outfield post seventy every time.

707
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: Look, I like Logan o'hoppy. Uh, you know, we can

708
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: have debatesball Taylor Ward all day long. I just don't

709
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 1: think there's a lot to like here with the Angels

710
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: unless something gets better fast. He's just the alone guy

711
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: with no lineup protection. Now who I don't want to

712
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: say he's passed his prime, but he's passed his elite years.

713
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 4: I think that's the best way to put it. So

714
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 4: I would take him.

715
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: I mean, he's going around the same spot as Christian Yelich,

716
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: So yeah, like, okay, if you're gonna give him to

717
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: me there, I will take him there. But I think

718
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: as time goes on that ADP is also going to rise.

719
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 3: And would you rather have Cody Bellinger and Mike Trout

720
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 3: this year?

721
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: I had zero chill, zero hesitation on that one.

722
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 4: Why you don't have I.

723
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: Don't, I don't.

724
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: I don't trust I love the Bellinger became a better,

725
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: more patient hitter with less strikeouts.

726
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 3: I don't trust that the counting Chicago if.

727
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: He comes back to the Cubs, then then again that

728
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: in my mind, that's the Bellinger. I see, So that's

729
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: hence my quick answer. What about your answer? It comes

730
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 1: to Evan Carter number nine our headlines. We got one

731
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: more after this.

732
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 4: Evan Carter.

733
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: Is he this year's Corbyn Carroll? We told everybody Corbyn

734
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: Carroll was getting for power. He did. We told Corban

735
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: Carroll was going to be a superstar and he was.

736
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 1: Is Evan Carter the next superstar?

737
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: He is positioned to be the next guy. We ended

738
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: last season with me saying I think this will be

739
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 2: the guy because he won't exhaust his prospect eligibility. He

740
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 2: ended up destroying and breaking my heart. I went to

741
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 2: two World Series games this year. Fantasy Pros sent me

742
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,479
Speaker 2: to one of them, which is amazing, and I got

743
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 2: to see having Carter hit three in the World Series

744
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 2: for the World Series Texas Rangers, which is an incredible spot.

745
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 2: If he's put back in that position where he is

746
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 2: hitting behind like Marcus Simeon and Corey Seeger again, that's

747
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: a fantastic spot for RBIs.

748
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 3: But is that going to continue? I'm not one hundred

749
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 3: percent sure.

750
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 2: He really struggled against lefties, had no extra base power

751
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: versus lefties.

752
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 3: This past year. Strikeouts were highering his pro debut, which

753
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 3: isn't a big problem. He gets on base. Here's the deal.

754
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: I think he scores runs, he gets RBIs, but I

755
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,239
Speaker 2: wonder is it more Yoshida than it is Carol. His

756
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 2: projections are not crazy favorable. It's under twenty twenty and

757
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 2: that's not going to get you to be a Rookie

758
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 2: of the Year. He can do it if he's hitting

759
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 2: three for this team all season. But here's the teas.

760
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 2: The Rookie of the Year is probably going to come

761
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 2: in the next episode when we talk about the ten

762
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: buzz the players that are coming up, because there are

763
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: some rookies that do not have guaranteed roster spots that

764
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 2: I think have higher probability than Carter.

765
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 3: But we do know for sure that Carter is.

766
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 2: Going to break camp and be on this roster from

767
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 2: day one, and that's why that symbolism makes the most sense.

768
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: Carter's still a little slight for me, like Corbyn Carroll

769
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: is a little Corbyn Carroll's solid. I feel like the

770
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: other thing that Aaron Carter is too. It's like, Okay,

771
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: I want to again in these show me stage with him,

772
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: where I want to see the slight frame pulled up overseas.

773
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: I think this is a guy who's going to grow

774
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: into that frame over the next couple of years and

775
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 1: be a very good player. But this year in Redraft,

776
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be a little bit more hesitant than

777
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: some others. Now, another grouping of guys here that people

778
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: are not really being too hesitant on, and maybe we

779
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: should or shouldn't be. We'll find out early ADP on

780
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 1: two guys, Cole Ragans and Michael King. Now, King was

781
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: a guy we want to start with him. I'll let

782
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: you kind of take the ball here with Cole. But

783
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: you know, for me, King is this is the opportunity, right.

784
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: I mean, he's been waiting to be a starter. He's

785
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: been basically a bullpeny guy. He's had his spot stars

786
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: with the Yankees, he was dominant of the bullpen canny.

787
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: Now transfer that at twenty nine years old to San

788
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: Diego into the rotation of full time. I think it's

789
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: fasting to find out. I think he's gonna be a

790
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 1: very trendy pick. We understand why.

791
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 4: So let's start with him and then you can pick

792
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 4: up the next one.

793
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: On the next guy, and you tell me what your

794
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: thoughts are on both of these guys in their current ADP.

795
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think the biggest headline to this is

796
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 2: if you checked out early from baseball, if you got

797
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 2: out in July, you might not understand. You go, what's

798
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: a Cole Reagans, Where's a Michael King. Well, they're gonna

799
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 2: be on your teams, and they're gonna be in your drafts,

800
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 2: and they're gonna.

801
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 3: Be heavy, heavy investments.

802
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 2: And you know, from Michael King's perspective, I think the

803
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: biggest question is going to be how comfortable the Padres

804
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: are gonna be after trading him in the Wan Soto trade.

805
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 2: How comfortable are they going to be pushing his innings?

806
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 2: He had one hundred and four. He had one hundred

807
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: one hundred and ten combined the previous two years, So

808
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: it's gonna be what is that inning amount gonna look like?

809
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: But he had a thirty percent k rate this past

810
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 2: year and expected era that was in the mid threes,

811
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 2: which was fantastic. He had a sweeper which he used

812
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 2: almost thirty percent of the time, have a forty percent

813
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 2: withf rate, which is huge. And the fastball actually did

814
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 2: well because he worked it off of a sinker. I

815
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 2: think if you push, you're gonna get some big strikeouts

816
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: on him. And Michael King is inside the top one fifty,

817
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 2: so welcome to San Diego. And Cole Reagan's is kind

818
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: of the Tarik Schooble excitement light if you will. The

819
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:27,959
Speaker 2: problem is there's massive walk worries that follow him ten

820
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: and a half walk per nine. But Cole Reagan's completely transformed.

821
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: When he became a royal. He had a better expected

822
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: era than his actual, which was incredible.

823
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 3: His fastball ended up moving.

824
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 2: Four miles an hour excuse me, four miles an hour

825
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 2: higher than the previous year, became an absolutely dominant pitch,

826
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: and he became a strikeout king. He's got a thirty

827
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 2: four percent with rate on his change up and the

828
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: fastball was one of the near elite elites.

829
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:55,320
Speaker 3: So here's the deal.

830
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 2: If you slept on these you don't understand them. You

831
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 2: need to catch up up because both of these players

832
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: have really high strikeout upside post one hundred that I

833
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 2: think pair incredibly well with some of those safety pitchers.

834
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 2: You can get the George Kirby's, the Zach Efflins, the

835
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: Logan Webs. If you're missing strikeouts, these are two guys

836
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: but these names will jump out to you if you

837
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 2: dipped out early in baseball, So welcome in to the

838
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 2: pitching Targets Post one hundred Michael King and Cole Reagan's

839
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: I'll take them both, and.

840
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 1: Welcome to twenty twenty four. Everybody.

841
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 4: We are here.

842
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,919
Speaker 1: Baseball's back, and so are we. Make sure you drop

843
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: your comments below on the YouTube channel. We want to

844
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: hear from you. What are your most important headlines for

845
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four Fantasy Baseball season. We love to

846
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: hear from you, guys, and make sure you subscribe to

847
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: Fantasy ros MLB wherever you get your podcast, and of

848
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 1: course subscribe.

849
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 4: To the YouTube channel. Click that belt. It goes ding.

850
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: We're gonna have videos, We're gonna have podcasts, We're gonna

851
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: have daily shows, oh so much fun, incredible guests. Is

852
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: gonna be like the Muppet Show, hopefully with everybody's hands

853
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 1: being visible, because you never know what the Muppet Show

854
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: where people's hands are whole thing.

855
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 3: Let's do it.

856
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 4: Joe on that note.

857
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, But the story of the

858
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh.

859
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 4: I'm Joey p Baseball as back kids. We'll see you

860
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 4: next time, oh by