1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa A. Brawmowitz Jailey. We bring 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg 5 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Terminal. Kenny 6 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: Kaminski joined US now Chief Research. Trying to just to 7 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 1: alpha simplex. Kenny, you much more than that. You guys 8 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: have had a massive year. Kenny, can you walk me 9 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:42,480 Speaker 1: through what's worked this year and what hasn't worked this week? Yes, 10 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: that's a good question. I mean, in the first part 11 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,639 Speaker 1: of the year, the narrative was inflation, so we were 12 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: very much seeing long signals and commodities short signals in 13 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: fixed income for the first time since. But later in 14 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: the year this narrative has changed. It's been a draft 15 00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: between the recession fear versus rising rates and the impact 16 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: of the relative strength of the dollar. So the dollar 17 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: trade has probably been the biggest mover since this summer, 18 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: and this short bond trade continues to be the focus 19 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: of many of the technical community. Of those of us 20 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: who follow momentum signals Katherine Kaminski. Into the weekend, everyone 21 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: is going to read on turtle trading, John Henry and 22 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: Alpha Simplex. You are up plus this year using trend 23 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 1: based studies, explained to our audience what you didn't do 24 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 1: to generate a return larger than the triple leverage dollar 25 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: cash fund. So trend strategies are really about following what 26 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,559 Speaker 1: the market is doing, not what the market should do. 27 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 1: And I think that's where we're in a very good 28 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: position because frankly, nobody knows what the market is or 29 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: should do going forward, given the complexity of the new 30 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: macro environment that we're in. So I think in that sense, 31 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: it's really been difficult to make a call on some 32 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: thing that most investors have never lived through and then 33 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: a different macro environment than most of us really have 34 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: sort of been used to. I mean, look at the 35 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: correlations today is a perfect example. Today we have stocks down, 36 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: bonds down, dollar up again, and that's a very strange 37 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: cross asset theme, but it's the prevailing theme in this 38 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: type of environment. Katie, can you find any kind of 39 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: theme when it comes to the optimism and stocks? Perversely, 40 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 1: from this idea that the Fed is going to back 41 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: away and then the pessimism on the tech in the 42 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: tech universe after some of these earnings. That's a good 43 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: question because like earnings coming in, it's just another data 44 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,359 Speaker 1: point that people have to absorb to try and understand 45 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 1: this narrative, and we look at what's been happening now. 46 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: Obviously duration exposure is something that a lot of tech 47 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: UH investors are thinking about, but also the fact that 48 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: you're really seeing that divergence across sectors, across economies across 49 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: the world. So we're really seeing even though there's key 50 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: macro themes, these macro changes are really eating winners and 51 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: losers in this particular environment. So it's making it a 52 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: very interesting environment to be a tactical trader or someone 53 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 1: that's looking for sort of deviations from the meme. It's 54 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 1: not just a stocks always go up by your sixty 55 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 1: forty environment this year, which means that there's opportunities for 56 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: those who are a little more tactical. Ketty, you've been 57 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: tremendous this year. Congratulations to you. In the same m 58 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: A Alpha simplex, David Coston Goulden Sex joins us this swarning. David, 59 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: can you explain to me, how your world has changed 60 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: from when I studied three to four percent FX adjustment 61 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: on equities and all of a sudden we're doing dollar 62 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: adjustment of six percent, eight percent. The CFO of Apple 63 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: said near ten percent yesterday. How does your world change 64 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: with strong dollar? Well, the way the world changes from 65 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: a fundamental point here in the United States is that 66 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: of the revenues of US companies are actually generated domestically. 67 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: Uh So, therefore the sensitivity of companies from a corporate 68 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: point of view is largely going to be focused in 69 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: the technology sector. We're almost sixty of their sales were overseas, 70 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: So from that point of view, Tom, the translation back 71 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: is really going to be focused in certain areas as 72 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: opposed to broadly across the market. When you look at 73 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: the sales of healthcare companies, utilities, and the telecom companies, 74 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:25,039 Speaker 1: even financials largely domestic in nature, and therefore it's less 75 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 1: sensitive than maybe is widely perceived. But it is definitely 76 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: a concern and a focus on some of the global 77 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: multinationals tech in particular. It's David, let's talk about by backs. 78 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: This came from market inside of yesterday. I listened to 79 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 1: these numbers meant to spent forty five billion on buy 80 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: backs last year, paying about three thirty share on average 81 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 1: Meta yesterday close with a ninety seven handle. David Kustim, 82 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: what on earth is going to happen with corporate bipacks 83 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 1: in the year to come? And just walk us through 84 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: because I know you and the team at Goldman do 85 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: so much work on this. The importance of bi backs 86 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 1: as a feature of demand in this secuity market. So, 87 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,679 Speaker 1: Jonathan critic point is the fact that over the last 88 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: ten years, every year the single biggest source of demand 89 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: for u S shares has been corporate repurchases. So question 90 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 1: here is this year there will be up around five 91 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: versus a year ago, and our forecast next years they'll 92 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: probably decline by about ten percent, So tem percent less 93 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: buy backs in three than this year. That's assuming a 94 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: soft landing, Jonathan. If you had a recession scenario, that's 95 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: probably down. That is again a very significant development in 96 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 1: the certain terms of the confidence the ceo s have 97 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 1: in the outlook for business activity in the in the 98 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: coming year. That does drive some of their decisions on 99 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: their capital spending. I've spoken some boards this week as 100 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 1: they think about their uses of cash in the coming 101 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: twelve months. The idea of how important capital spending is 102 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: relative to research and development dollars. How do they think 103 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: about the prioritization of merger acquisition spending. But buy backs 104 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: has been the default use of cash for a lot 105 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: of companies and that is likely to be receiving as 106 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 1: we look into coundar three, and that again has been 107 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: the single biggest support function for equity prices in the 108 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: UH in the last ten years. David, just to sort 109 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: of underline this point, how much do you expect this 110 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: to pull back in terms of how much stocks can 111 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: gain just simply because this massive buyer will not be there. Well, 112 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: it's a it's a it's a big issue. We think 113 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: about the flow of funds if you want to think 114 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 1: about it in that context, Leasa, the idea of um 115 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: pension funds as counter cyclical buyers would be one area 116 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: of source of demand, partially off setting some of the 117 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 1: we will pulling back on the on the buyer backs, 118 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: but it is u it's off tough to basically replace 119 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: that when when looking at companies spending around three point 120 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 1: one trillion dollars, that's the cash spending of SPI companies 121 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: three point one trillion UH this year, probably flat in 122 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: terms of overall spending for next year and UH and 123 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 1: the corporate buybacks roughly a trillion dollars this year and 124 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: that's likely to be down probably called in the next year. 125 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: There's really not another source of demand for shares that 126 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: is going to replace the bid, if you will, from 127 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: the corporate side, David. One thing that Goldman Sax has 128 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: been out front on is that you don't think that 129 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: there has been full earnings capitulation in terms of what 130 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: we can expect going forward. What do you think the 131 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: trier will be. Just sort of throw the kitchen sink 132 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: at the issue and really see the downgrades to outlook 133 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: that you would like to see, to see a bottom well, 134 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: just to be clear, at least, it's not like I'd 135 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: like to see them, and what do we expect to happen. 136 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: I think the point you made is an excellent one. 137 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: In the following keep the following kind of numbers in mind. 138 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: Coming in the first quarter of the expectation was about 139 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: plus five percent year over your earnings growth came in 140 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: plus twelve. Second quarter expectation plus six came in plus ten. 141 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: The setup coming in for the current quarter was basically 142 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: plus three expectation. You have your growth earnings plus three percent, 143 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: they're basically somewhere between one and two percent, so there's 144 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: actually know a negative or surprise relative to expectations. That's 145 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: right now what's happened. Then looking forward in the fourth quarter, 146 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: expectations kind of at this time before the earning season 147 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: begin was plus seven. Now it's looking at plus five. 148 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: So the idea of this cut cut cuts are death 149 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 1: by a thousand cuts. That's essentially what's happening as you 150 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: look into the fourth quarter, and then more importantly and 151 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: you look into calendar three are expectations Right now, we're 152 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: basically plus three percent earn his growth, So basically a 153 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: modest growth nominal dollars helps sales. Higher inflation bad for margins, 154 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: so you basically have very modest level of profits. That's 155 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: assuming uh soft landing and basically economy continues to grow, 156 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: although a below trend pace. On the other hand, if 157 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: you have a recession, which more and more and more 158 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: of the portfolio managers with whom I speak have that view, 159 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 1: then basically you'd have earnings probably down eleven percent. So 160 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: that's your starting point at least to the point is 161 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: that currently expectations in next year is probably plus seven. 162 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: So think in terms of the magnitude of diminution in 163 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: terms of the huts probably coming from plus seven down 164 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: to potentially as as low as as minus eleven percent, 165 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: and that historically has been the case coming into a 166 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: recession sort of the period of six months ahead of recessions, 167 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: earns usually get cut by a round ten percent. So 168 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 1: a lot of focus has been the impact of higher 169 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: dom made reference earlier the dollar, the impact of higher inflation. 170 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: What does this do? Could companies support their margins? The 171 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: answer is there's downward pressure. The source of the negative 172 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: surprises this quarter has been, in fact weaker margins than 173 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 1: was anticipated. David Coaston and Colman David one of the 174 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,839 Speaker 1: best just contensed to catch up. These seven enjoy the weekend. 175 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: David Coaston of comt Sex. The Michigan statistics are particularly 176 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: availue if you're waited to the Midwest, as Lindsay Piggs 177 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: is out of Northwestern uh and of course with stephle 178 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 1: and she's their chief economiscence joins us in studio today, 179 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: which is an honor from the Midwest. What's the Midwest 180 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: economy like compared to people on the East Coast working 181 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: in three zip codes. What do we get wrong in 182 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,959 Speaker 1: our silly focus on Manhattan. I think we're missing the 183 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 1: compounding level of pain that we're seeing across the country. 184 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: We are seeing small businesses, we are seeing consumers very 185 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: much under pressure as a result of rising costs. We're 186 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: seeing businesses struggle to stay afloat. They're facing rising rental costs, 187 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:32,199 Speaker 1: rising parts costs. Uh. It's very difficult environment, and sometimes 188 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: we do focus just on the microcosm of some of 189 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: these major cities that may be faring slightly better, but 190 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:39,959 Speaker 1: the rest of the country is still under an extreme amount. 191 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 1: To rip up the script right now, we're gonna get 192 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 1: dr PS in trouble with their general Council. Is stifle 193 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: right now, let's go political. There's an election coming up 194 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,479 Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. I just mentioned food inflation 195 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: of eleven point two percent. Does that sustain as John 196 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: Farrell talks about German inflation sustaining well, I think right 197 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: now the risk to inflation in the US is certainly 198 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: to the upside. The idea that we're going to see 199 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 1: this welcome downward trajectory as the FED hasted to access 200 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: on double digit food inflation. You know, in my next year, 201 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,559 Speaker 1: absolutely I think carrying into I think this could absolutely 202 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 1: be event as well, that we're continuing to see these 203 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: contagion effects in the agriculture market, in the energy sector, 204 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: and this is going to make it very difficult for 205 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 1: the FED to get inflation back down to their two 206 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: percent target. And remember, even when we look at the 207 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg estimates, of course the past several years, the market 208 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: is consistently underestimating the level of inflation by anywhere from 209 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: fifty to a hundred and fifty basis points. And so 210 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 1: this is an ongoing theme well, although some people would 211 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: argue that we're also underestimating on the flip side how 212 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: quickly it could come down, and that we are seeing 213 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: things like used cars, We're seeing housing prices start to 214 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: stabilize or even in certain places come down. We're starting 215 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: to see this feeling that perhaps we're not going to 216 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 1: get that acceleration in some of the main components that 217 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: have driving this. What do you say to them that 218 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: perhaps they're missing the forest for the trees With respect 219 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: to some of the other price pressures coming from wages 220 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 1: in other areas well. We are seeing demand destruction in 221 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: some areas, which I do think will translate into slower 222 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 1: cost pressures in some sectors. But at this point, when 223 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 1: we're still talking about an unemployment rate at a five 224 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: decade low, contributing to that upward pressure on wages, coupled 225 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: with the idea that it's not just a demand side 226 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: inflation equation, it's also a supply side inflation equation, and 227 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: they are the FED has very little control over these factors. 228 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: So I've been watching spending figures and consumers are still spending. 229 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: We saw that GDP print yesterday and that's surprised to 230 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: the upside consumer consumption. How much is this being driven 231 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: by borrowed money by credit cards. We're seeing debt on 232 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: credit cards climbed to the highest levels that they've been 233 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: going back to two nine. This is kind of a 234 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: perilous time to be accelerating leverage now. Well, to your point, 235 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: consumers are still spending, but it is very clearly that 236 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: second derivative decline, meaning a slower pace of still positive expenditures. 237 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 1: We're talking about sub two percent consumption levels. That's far 238 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: from impressive, but we're also seeing very temporary factors helping 239 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 1: support the consumer. We did see lower prices at the pump. 240 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 1: Over the past couple of months, we have seen consumers 241 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 1: turn to credit cards, and while I'm certainly not advocating 242 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: that consumers take on new amounts of debt, we do 243 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: have quite a bit of wiggle room for consumers to 244 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,839 Speaker 1: expand their balance sheet. We are starting from a relatively 245 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: healthy standpoint when we look at debt relative to disposable 246 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: personal income, that's in a multidecade low. So we do 247 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 1: have additional room to continue to supplement these lower levels 248 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: of spending for another month to maybe longer, at which 249 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: point many are optimistic there will be additional fiscal stimulus 250 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: coming down the pipeline to help those in a position 251 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,319 Speaker 1: of unemployment or in a position of hardship. Next week 252 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:58,079 Speaker 1: November two, Wednesday. Can't believe is November next week? Ridiculous? Anyway? 253 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: Federals of Matsink, Champ and Pound in the news conference, 254 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 1: given everything you've just said, and given the hopes of 255 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: dreams if they stepped down that I keep hearing about, 256 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: we all keep hearing about over the last week, how 257 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: does he navigate that conversation? Given everything you've just said. 258 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: I think he says at some point it will be 259 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases and assess 260 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: the earlier impact of policy decisions. Were not at that 261 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: point yet, but at some point that will be appropriate. 262 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 1: That will give the committee enough wiggle room to continue 263 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: at a more aggressive pace. And we do expect the 264 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: Fed to maintain this aggressive pace into the end of 265 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: the year and even revise higher their forecast for rates 266 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: and inflation. But it also gives them enough wiggle room 267 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: on the other side that should inflation surprise to the downside, 268 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: they could begin to look at a more benign fifty 269 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 1: basis point increased steps scored five years. You had the 270 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: honor of Robert Gordon Economics at Northwestern. That book he 271 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: wrote a number of years ago on the collapse of 272 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: economic growth in America was gloomy, gloomy, gloomy? Is he 273 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: onto something here? Or can technology save the American economy? 274 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: At five years, it's going to be a big question 275 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: mark about productivity. Productivity has been languishing in this country 276 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: for the better part of the past decade and about 277 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: half a percent. So when we look at the growth 278 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: prospects of the U S economy sons of return of productivity. 279 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 1: I think the long run potential is below two percent, 280 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: probably around one point eight percent. So without that influx 281 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 1: of productivity, without that boost, I do think it's a 282 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: more dismal long term potential for the U. S economy. 283 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: Still positive, but certainly not robust. And thence we're going 284 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: to leave it. That fantastic to catch out with you, 285 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: this is a joy. He is out of Punaho and 286 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: the Esteem polly Side program at Williams College. He did 287 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: something with the internet company years ago called America Online, 288 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: and then he was supposed to leave the cushy life. 289 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: Steve Case chose not to do that, and more than 290 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: anyone I know and technology, he has gone out and said, 291 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: from c to Shining Sea, how do we do tech? 292 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: The Rise of the Rest is a second effort at 293 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: this It is a short, terse book. I can't say 294 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 1: enough about it. Rated by the Ft and their Beauty 295 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: List this year. Steve Case joins us now on what's 296 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: going on in Pittsburgh, What's going on in Detroit? Steve, 297 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 1: you begin the book with Shinola in Detroit, Michigan. I 298 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 1: get Austin, I get Nashville, I get Fargo. Okay, why 299 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: is Detroit the Rise of the rest Well, the whole 300 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: book is around dozens of city, but I start off 301 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: with Detroit because it's such an amazing story. A hundred 302 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: years ago, Detroit was sort of the Silicon Valley of 303 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 1: at this time when the car was the technology of 304 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: the day. Everybody wanted to be part of the car revolution. 305 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: People moved to Detroit to be part of that. It 306 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: was going gangbusters for for several decades and then lost 307 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: about half its population. And then the year before we 308 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: came with our Rise rest Bus, the city of Detroit 309 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: w and bankrupt. So it was the top city that 310 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: it was really struggling, and now it's really fighting its 311 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 1: way back. You mentioned sin all the way back. We 312 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,479 Speaker 1: also go back to another company called stock X. Now 313 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: either those companies existed ten years ago. Both of them 314 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: now have more than a thousand employees in Detroit and 315 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: are creating a new sense of possibility in Detroit. And 316 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: that's really the story all across the country, which why 317 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: I decided to write the book, to tell the stories 318 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: of these entrepreneurs building companies and these cities that are 319 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: being renewed because of the work of new companies. Is 320 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 1: big tech helping an investment in Sioux Falls, Well, there's 321 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 1: been there has been more of a back clash, as 322 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: you know, against the big tech that does create some 323 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: opportunities for some entrepreneurs. Even frankly, this difficult economy, you've 324 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: already seen some big companies cut back on some of 325 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: their initiatives that were kind of long term growth initiatives. 326 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: That creates an opening for for entrepreneurs. And so I 327 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: believe the next five or ten years really could be great. Uh, 328 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: we just need to focus on entrepreneurs everywhere, not just 329 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 1: in a few places. And for the last decade, seventy 330 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: of venture capital has gone just three states California, New York, 331 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,199 Speaker 1: and Massachusetts. Sevent to the other forty seven states are 332 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: fighting over twenty five percent. The whole idea of Rise 333 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: the Rest is to back those entrepreneurs. These they're gonna 334 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: be very successful investments as well as having a very 335 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: powerful impact in terms of creating jobs and economic vitality 336 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: in these in these communities, many of which have felt 337 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: left out and left behind by this last wave of innovation. 338 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: What about the next couple of years. Considering that there 339 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: was a lot of ample venture capital available over the 340 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 1: past five years. Going forward, a lot less is available, 341 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: a lot of people are pulling back. There isn't the 342 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: same kind of free money being thrown in terms of 343 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: I p O s and a lot less acceptance to 344 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: high salute and tech ideas. What do you think that 345 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,199 Speaker 1: will do to the pace of development. Well, might make 346 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 1: a little more difficult in Silicon Value, but it actually 347 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: likely will help in terms of the Rise of the Rest. 348 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,679 Speaker 1: And some of that is because it's always been more 349 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: difficult for the entrepreneurs in these rising cities to get 350 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: venture capital. Valuations have tended to be lower, the entrepreneurs 351 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:55,160 Speaker 1: have tended to be scrappy or more bootstrapping, more capital efficient. 352 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 1: So this change in the market where some of the 353 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 1: high flyers in places like Silicon Values in a big reset, 354 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: we're not seeing the same kind of reset in these 355 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 1: Rides of the rest cities. So I think that that 356 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: bodes well if we continue continue to make sure venture 357 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: capital is is everywhere. One great statistic in the book 358 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: is over the last decade, four hundred new regional venture 359 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 1: capital firms have started up in these Rise of the 360 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 1: Rest city So that really boded well for this next 361 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: chapter I can't let you go without having some comment 362 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 1: on Twitter going private and Elon Musk being at the 363 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 1: helm of this. What's your view in how the view 364 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:34,640 Speaker 1: into entrepreneurs changes as it really becomes the mouthpiece, particularly 365 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 1: even in a private way, the mouthpiece for individuals and 366 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: politicians alike. I'm a big fan of Twitter, was one 367 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: of the early early users, and certainly think Elon is 368 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: one of the most creative entrepreneurs we've we've we've seen 369 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 1: in this in this era, So I don't want to 370 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: bet against him. I think he does have some challenges, 371 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: a little bit like the dog that caught the car, 372 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: and it's a little bit now what I know he 373 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: wants to make some moves around making it more of 374 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: a town square, but I think you need to be 375 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: careful in terms of making sure he does and lose users, 376 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:05,120 Speaker 1: doesn't lose advertisers, doesn't trigger more more regulations. So really, 377 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: the first day of a new day for Twitter, I 378 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: hope it. I hope it goes well. Steve, what should 379 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: big tech do with a ten years strategic plan? The 380 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 1: massive cash build up selected companies with massive share buy back, 381 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: They literally, it seems, don't have the imagination of what 382 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 1: to do with the profit? Where should they be ten 383 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: years from now. Well, obviously that some of these companies 384 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 1: have had enormous success over the last decade, as you've said, 385 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 1: and that gives them a lot of flexibility. But I 386 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 1: think the market is sank thing with with with Facebook. 387 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 1: While you need to lean in the future, you need 388 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 1: to invest in things like the metaverse, you need to 389 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: do it in a in a balanced way. I think 390 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,199 Speaker 1: you'll see more of that, more of the pressure from 391 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: Wall Street around companies in terms of their investment strategies. 392 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,920 Speaker 1: And they said earlier that actually creates an opportunity for 393 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs who can be disruptive. And it's been hard to 394 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: disrupt at tech in the last decade, and make it 395 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: easier in the coming years and quickly, Lisa, here there's 396 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 1: the fall of selected places, like the struggles of Chicago 397 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: and San Francisco right as you get sort of this 398 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: diversification of sources of entrepreneurship. San Francisco in particular very 399 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: much front and focus is just crossing. Paul Pelosi, the 400 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: husband of Nancy Pelosi house speaker, was violently assaulted early 401 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 1: on Friday. Early today following a break in at the 402 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: couple of San Francisco Home. This just coming out, Steve, 403 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: do you think that San Francisco can recover from the exodus, 404 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: the work from home trend, some of the feeling that 405 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: it's been having for a while that it might be 406 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: very much on the downtrend. Well, san Francisco still a 407 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,159 Speaker 1: great city. Silicon Valley is still a great place. It 408 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: will still be the leader of the pack when we 409 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 1: talk about the rise of rest. We're not predicting that 410 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 1: decline of Silicon Valley were just the rise of other 411 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: other cities. But I do think you're starting to see 412 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: a dispersion of talent that people felt they had to 413 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 1: be in Silicon Valley now feel a flexibility in other places. 414 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 1: Venture capitalists that are only investing in Silicon Valley now 415 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: are investing other places. And that's why I wrote this 416 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 1: book to inspire the next generation of launchburg and the 417 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 1: investors to back them in city like Baltimore, Detroit, Minneapolis, Denver, Nashville, 418 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: all over the country that are really emerging as great 419 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: startup phubs. Folks, I'm not going to mince words. Bloomberg 420 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: Surveillance is about this nation. It's not just about new 421 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 1: York City and maybe San Francisco, and named some other 422 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: things that nobody has done more nick coast to coast 423 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 1: than Steve case on expansion of this nation and innovation 424 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: and technology. Tune in forty pages The Rise of the 425 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,120 Speaker 1: Rest Steve case Uh with an update on his work 426 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: of the last decade. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 427 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to 428 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: ten a m. Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg 429 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: Television each day from six to nine am for insight 430 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 431 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: And subscribe to the Surveillance Podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, 432 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm 433 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: Tom Key than This is Bloomer