WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 6th, 2026 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:35.840 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:38.680 We begin this hour with stocks pushing hire as Marcus 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:40.159 keep a cautious eye. 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:40.640 On the Middle East. 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:43.640 Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth writing, we see potential 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.760 for a continued tactical bounce, but we do not see 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:50.640 markets is out of the woods for volatility. Cameron joins us. Now, Cameron, 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:52.680 thank you so much for being with us. I want 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:56.480 to just start with the idea of what dip is biable? 0:00:56.640 --> 0:00:59.400 Are we looking at something that actually cheap in stocks 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:01.800 off to just hold your nose and buy. 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:02.160 Yeah. 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.399 We got to the point where markets traded down to 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.840 nineteen times forward earnings on the S and P five hundred. 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:11.080 That's not historically cheap. It's cheaper than it was. Of 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:13.280 course back at the end of October we traded to 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:16.520 twenty three times forward. But I think the important thing 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.039 to note is that as of Monday of last week, 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.440 we did get a little bit over sold on a 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.440 short term basis, which is why we think the markets 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:28.000 were able to rally. But we expect volatility to continue 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:31.080 because there still is so much optimism that this war 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.759 will end quickly and it won't have a big impact 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.720 on growth. And you can see that from so many angles. 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:39.399 Look at the Brint futures forward curve, where you have 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:42.400 this expectation that oil prices will return back to normal 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:46.119 fairly quickly. Look at high yield spreads remaining contain valuations 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:48.680 still at nineteen and a half times forward, the fact 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.760 that GDP estimates are still two point three percent, and 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:54.120 ad on top of that, the earnings sestiments have gone 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:57.040 up for twenty six and twenty seven. So there's still 0:01:57.040 --> 0:01:59.840 a fair amount of optimism, even though we have seen 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.000 some of the positioning shake loose and some of the 0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:03.320 valuations get compressed. 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:04.320 The two ways to look at this. 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.160 On one hand, you could say Wow, markets are really complacent. 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.520 They're not looking at the potential tail risks. The other 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:11.200 way to look at this is markets tend to be 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:14.560 right and more level headed in looking through geopolitics. And 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:16.840 if they're all saying the same thing, well, who am 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:17.520 I to fight them? 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:18.600 So where do you stand on that? 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:20.839 So one of the reasons why you can look through 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:25.080 geopolitics is usually analysts get too scared too fast, which 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:27.440 means that they cut their estimates way too much and 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:30.160 then end up having to chase their estimates higher. We 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:32.920 have a very simple rule. Markets like it when estimates 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.240 are going up. They don't like it when estimates are 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.960 going down. But if you never cut your estimates, it 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.000 means that you still have a very high bar. 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:41.320 To surprise to the upside. 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:43.480 And that's a big difference versus what we got last 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:46.080 year in twenty twenty five, going back to times like 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:49.120 twenty twenty two or even COVID, where analysts were so 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:51.880 quick to cut their estimates that it created a low 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:53.880 bar to surprise to the upside. 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.120 Now the bar is still very high. 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:57.520 So everyone is living with that scar. 0:02:57.560 --> 0:03:00.960 I wonder if it's even though across different sectors, if 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:03.120 it's the same with a consumer that might be facing 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:06.760 higher oil and energy prices. If it's the same for utilities, 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:09.400 if it's the same, Is it a broad brush right now? 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:09.760 Yeah? 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.760 I think the most fascinating thing is that what's been 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.840 driving earnings estimates higher over the course of the last 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:19.040 month has been not things related to the oil or 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:22.399 energy shock. It has been the fact that it's been semiconductors. 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.760 But the market's not giving credit to semiconductors for the 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:29.399 big earnings revisions higher because you've seen their valuations get 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:33.240 compressed by thirty percent, So effectively, the one area that 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:35.880 we can count on for earnings growth is the one 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:37.920 area where the market's not giving a credit. 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.280 I have, say something like semiconductors, those chip making stocks, 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:43.560 A lot of it has felt very momentumy, and that 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:45.520 seemed to be in the driving seat for a lot 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:48.040 of the market shakeout that we've seen. To what degree 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:52.240 has market positioning reset and more fundamentals will dictate the 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:52.760 price action. 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:55.960 Yeah, So if we look at consolidated positioning, which Deutsche 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.160 Bank has a great measure of that, the positioning has 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:01.040 reset to about the twentieth percent, so not nearly as 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.320 washed out as we got to at the lows during 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.440 Liberation Day, but suggests that if news were to get better, 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:09.280 more people could get dragged into this market. We have 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:12.480 seen some positioning resets when it comes to megacap growth 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.560 as well, which just suggests that again, better news could 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:16.520 draw more people in. 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.320 We're talking to Cameron Dawson right now, and of course 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.640 this is a very volatile moment, and we're getting some 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:26.320 headlines from Iran from the Foreign Ministry saying that Iran 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:29.159 demands the end to the war. Iran continues to go 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:31.560 on to say that no rational person would agree to 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:34.839 a ceasefire, talking about a ceasefire meaning creating just simply. 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:36.400 A short pause to regroup. 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:39.760 A lot of questions about noise versus signal, and Cameron, 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:42.719 I'm curious from your perspective, how you take some of 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:46.120 the incurrent coming rhetoric, both from the US, from Iran, 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:50.000 from allies, from unreported sources and get a sense of 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:52.960 whether we're moving closer to some sort of resolution, whether 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.920 we're moving closer to some sort of escalation that could 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:58.520 lead to wheel damage and facilities in the region. 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:00.880 Yeah, it looks it's incredibly difficult, and I think that 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.880 last point is probably the most important one, which is 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.520 that what kind of damage are we seeing that does 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:10.920 not allow oil prices to return to their pre war levels. Effectively, 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.720 we've been arguing it's not where oil prices go, it's 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:16.800 where they stay, and if they stay at elevated levels 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:19.599 because of this damage, it just suggests that we don't 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:22.039 get an easing of pressures on the US consumer. And 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:25.360 if we look, it's really gasoline prices that matter most, 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.640 but also considering things like diesel, and the US consumer 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:30.280 does not have a lot of room to. 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:31.839 Absorb an oil supply shock. 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:34.000 If you look at the last three months the average 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:37.120 jobs added with sixty eight thousand. Contrast that to twenty 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:40.680 twenty two, we were adding four hundred thousand jobs on average, 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.039 a lot more room with a lot more wage growth 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:44.920 to absorb the increase in oil prices. 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:46.599 That's the reason why this week is going to be 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:48.560 so important for so many people. The fact that we 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.320 get core PCEE data, that key magic that the FED 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.320 looks at and then CPI on Friday, gives a sense 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:57.240 about how much some of these gasoline prices, these diesel 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:59.960 prices are already plowing into a consumer. 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.520 We're spending. How will that affect your view? 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:04.560 I mean, could this be a turning point for. 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:07.680 You in some ways to just understand what damage is 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:09.440 actually being done to the US economy. 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:12.160 I think it will be incredibly important. The US economy, 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:16.080 after all, is two thirds of overall or US consumers 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.760 two thirds of overall economic growth, and. 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:19.839 You have to appreciate that. 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:22.559 Over the last year, we've seen a big difference between 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.719 the growth and personal income, which has been flat to down, 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:29.120 versus personal spending, which has been very robust. And the 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.440 gap between those two has been driven by a willing 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:35.880 down of the savings rate, which is made possible by 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:39.160 a very strong wealth effect, which is made possible by 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:41.960 a very strong equity market. So if we continue to 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.880 be in this environment where equity markets come under pressure, 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:47.680 you start to lose one of those things that has 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:51.640 allowed consumers to continue to spend so robustly even in 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.440 the face of falling real income growth. 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:57.880 One of the conversations around COVID of why the consumer 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:01.120 was strong and why markets rebounded was the huge amounts 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.640 of fiscal stimulus put into the market. This time around, 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:07.200 it's also a government that has less room. We're already 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.880 running large deficits. President Trump just asking for a huge 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:14.240 allocation to defense in his most recent budget. How does 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:16.679 that alter things with the one big beautiful bill already 0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:20.720 out there? Maybe in the inability to keep pumping stimulus. 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:22.200 It gives you a lot fewer degrees of freedom. 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:25.000 You're going in with a deficit to GDP at six 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:28.160 and a half percent, with yields already higher, and inflation 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.280 already higher at three point one percent on core PC, 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.400 which is expected to come in later this week, which 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.400 just suggests that even if you want to do stimulus, 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.320 there may be less market appetite to be able to 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:43.000 absorb some of that stimulus, which just means that we 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:45.120 might just have to take our medicine when it comes 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:46.239 to this supply shock. 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:50.000 Stay with us. Mulblenberg Savannah's coming up off to. 0:07:50.080 --> 0:08:02.480 This oil flo fluctuating with traders on edge over President 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:06.320 Trump's ultimatum for a run and reports of ongoing ceasefire talks. 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:10.080 Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy partners, writing talk is cheap 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:13.960 and getting cheapers. Threats, deadlines, and promises of deals get 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:15.000 pushed to the right. 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:15.800 Dan joins us. 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:18.000 Now, Tan, Dan, thank you so much for being with us. 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:21.000 I want to start not necessarily on the noise, but 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:23.480 on what's going on on the ground, what you're seeing 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:27.160 in terms of the damage, the delays to get things restarted, 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:29.840 even if there was some sort of ceasefire or truce 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:30.760 in the near future. 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:32.320 Ai Lisa, good morning. 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:36.000 The issue here is the ongoing violence, but it's also 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:38.240 the restart time when you look at the shut ins 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:41.480 of fields further back up the Gulf, in the Middle East, 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:43.120 Saudi Kuwait, Iraq, etc. 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:45.760 I think the issue is even. 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:48.200 If there was a ceasefire, even if there's a cessation 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.200 of hostilities, you know, the question is how long does 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:52.920 it take to get going, And that's going to be 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:56.040 measured I think in months, not weeks, and so you 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:58.920 know this has a long tail to it that the 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.920 market's starting to absorbed. But I don't think fully appreciates 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.640 because of all the news on the front part of 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:05.080 the curve. 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:05.760 Dan. 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:08.760 We talked to different officials in the administration, in the 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:13.640 Trump administration who said we're taking cues from the forward 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:15.920 curve and the fact that forward curve come down comes 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:19.840 down in prices are expected to drop significantly by the 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:23.480 end of the year. How much do you glean from 0:09:23.600 --> 0:09:26.880 the forward curve the idea that oil's futures traders are 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.600 expecting oil prices at least based on the pricing to 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:30.719 come down significantly. 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.120 Yeah, I think it matters a lot when this finishes, 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:38.160 how it finishes. The reality is open the straight prices 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:41.120 are going to come down. Triple digit numbers are too 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.040 high on a sustainable basis if the straight is open, 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:47.120 And the question is really where do you settle forward 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:50.760 curve right now? Twenty seven to twenty eight is showing 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:55.040 prices in the high to mid sixties to me, probably 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.840 feels a little conservative as we feel the impact of 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:02.199 drawing down these inventories. But the reality is triple digit 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:06.040 prices are a function of conflict. If the conflict abs, 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:09.600 if the strait opens, prices come down. That's what's going 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:11.640 to flow through the economy. So we really have to 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:13.440 watch twenty seven, twenty eight, twenty nine. 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.760 Well, just now, as pricing stands down to your point 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:17.760 in the high sixties, what would be more appropriate, what 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.320 would look what should it look like to price in 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.120 risks accurately to the strait of hormuse right now? 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:27.120 Yeah, if we don't open the straits, that the back 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:28.679 end of the curve is going to move towards the 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:32.200 front right, so we'll take oil into the eighties and 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:37.640 potentially the nineties. I think the more appropriate conversation is 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:41.960 how complicated is the Middle East after this conflict ends? 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:43.280 If Iran is in. 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:46.040 Charge of the Strait, there has to be some sort 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:48.480 of a risk or disruption premium, and that's probably going 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:50.440 to be measured in five to ten bucks of barrels. 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.560 So I think mid seventies to high seventies is probably 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:57.920 the realistic number if if we end this with Iran 0:10:57.960 --> 0:10:58.959 in charge of the Strait? 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:00.840 Is there a demand just diduction at that level? 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:01.040 Dan? 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:03.040 Or is that a price that the world can continue 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:03.760 functioning with. 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:06.960 I think it's a painful price, but one that the 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:09.960 world functions. So demand destruction is going to be measured 0:11:09.960 --> 0:11:12.080 in the one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:14.640 hundred and fifty. You've heard some really big numbers associated 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:18.360 with that. If the straits open, we don't need to 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:22.120 destroy demand. Can demand continue to grow at seventy five 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:23.040 or eighty dollars? 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:24.040 WTI? 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:28.280 The answers, yes, wood would markets, the President, etc. 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:29.000 Like? 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:33.320 Prices lower certainly, but seventy five to eighties manageable. 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:36.160 I was rucked by something that fatib Role of the 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:39.120 International Energy Agency said to the FT over the weekend. 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:42.400 He was talking about hoarding. He said, I urge all 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.880 countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports. He 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:47.600 went on to say, it is the worst time when 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.720 you look at the global oil markets, their trade partners, 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:52.600 their allies, and their neighbors will suffer as a result. 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:55.440 He was clearly talking about a certain nation, did not 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:59.880 mention any nation's names. How many nations, not only China 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.840 but others as well do you see stockpiling, hoarding, putting 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:05.160 export bands in place? 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:07.120 Yeah? 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:09.720 The real issue is whether or not these countries are 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:14.600 going to release their strategic reserves to offset the shortages. 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:18.520 The real question when you're fighting for barrels amongst your 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.560 neighbors is you know what what price does it take 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:22.640 to get that barrel. 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:23.120 To your shores? 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.559 And in a situation of shortage, what do people do 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:27.160 They do? 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:27.600 Hoard? 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:29.600 They don't want to, they don't want to use what 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:30.160 they've got. 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:31.119 They want to. 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:34.120 Acquire more so that they can can stay in the game, 0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:37.560 if you will, so, right now, we haven't seen releases 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:43.040 from Chinese. China's stockpiles in Japan, the US, other OECD 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:46.520 countries are starting to release stocks, but it's moving fairly slowly. 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.160 It's a long process. It will take several months for 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:51.440 that to push ahead. 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:54.680 To put this together with what Danny was asking you about, 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:56.880 which I think is something that is the key point. 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.160 We can take a look at the forward curve. When 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:01.679 do you start pricing in the risk premium that this 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:04.200 is not a one off, this is something that can 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:09.160 continue in terms of the geopolitical tensions around shipping and 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:11.880 particularly shipping energy of products. I mean, at what point 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:16.160 do you see the forward curve in oil futures underpricing 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.640 that reality that is very much being demonstrated. 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:20.720 The day's coming. 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.520 If we continue to have this cat and mouse game 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:26.880 of deadlines that are extended and pushed forward and the 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:30.960 conflict continues, I think the market stops listening as much 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:34.480 to what politicians on both sides of the conflict are 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:37.160 saying and just continue to look at the barrels. If 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.600 the barrels don't come through the straits, the realization that 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.080 the market is going to continue to tighten, I think 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:48.520 seeps in and folks stop believing pieces coming start believing 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.880 that war will continue. And if that's the case, then oil's. 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:53.080 Got to go higher. The back part of the curve 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:53.600 moves up. 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:57.160 Stay with us, multplinbeg Savannah's coming up. 0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:57.720 Off to this. 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.680 Joining us now is Colonel Wayne Sanders, senior defense analyst 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.120 at Bloomberg Intelligence. Colonel, thank you so much for being 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:15.240 with us. We had headlines earlier this morning from the 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:18.600 Iranian side with the Foreign Ministry saying that no rational 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:19.320 person would. 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:20.360 Agree to a ceasefire. 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:24.240 A ceasefire means creating a short pause to regroup. How 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:27.320 seriously should we be taking discussions of some sort of 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:29.760 ceasefire by eight pm tomorrow Eastern time? 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:31.160 I think that from. 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.720 A political perspective, everybody needs to be able to come 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.760 forward and do that. From a military objective's perspective, I 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.200 agree with the assessment that not a whole log is 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:40.240 actually gained by that. 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:42.040 You're pretty much saying. 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:43.880 The US takes their foot off the gas in terms 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:45.360 of all the strikes that they have done. 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:46.640 And over the weekend, as. 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.120 You saw, Iran was actually able to show some of 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:53.480 the vulnerability to close air support assets with the APACHE 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:57.720 with the F fifteen as well as excuse me, as 0:14:57.720 --> 0:14:58.680 well as some. 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:00.680 Of the other close air acts, the A tents. 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.200 So that actually shows right now that anybody who's coming 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:06.120 to a military side of the house is no, I 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:08.640 need to actually double down and achieve more of those 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:11.840 military objectives. The problem is that the rest of the 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:13.680 world is looking for anything that's going. 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.440 To allow some level of a release valve. 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:17.560 And you saw that a couple of times, even during 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.080 the Iran Israel Twelve Day war, when they came for 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.320 a ceasefire, they needed to be able to take that 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:24.400 time so that behind the scenes they could reach what 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:25.160 they wanted to reach. 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:28.920 Colonel there was a report from Israel which it said 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.720 that Iran still had more than a thousand missiles that 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:36.200 could threaten it. What do we understand about the capabilities 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:38.880 of Iran to enact that type of pain with this 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:42.720 continued missiles, cheap drones that they've had at their disposal. 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:46.760 Yeah, their drone stockpile is still significant, right The Shihet 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.600 one three six is one of the most long range 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:52.920 and effective ones that you've seen actually take a lot 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:54.520 of the Gulf States right now, a lot of them 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.400 have been targeted with the drones. Their missile capability has 0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.640 been severely weakened. But depending on where you're looking at 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:02.760 the numbers, yeah, you can see up to almost one thousand. 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:06.120 There has Blah claims thousands of short range missiles as well, 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:08.840 So when you start looking at the proxies, so there's 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:10.880 always going to be a continued threat for that. 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:12.280 A lot of the launchers have. 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.080 Been damaged, so their ability to actually bolly those things 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:18.800 that scale becomes an issue. But right now you've seen 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:20.560 a lot of Iran be able to do stuff with 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:22.920 just one or two targets at a time. They don't 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:24.840 have to launch a lot, they just have to be 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.040 able to strike their targets. 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:26.160 Well. 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:28.520 When it comes to the proxyes Klonel, this is something 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:31.440 that Israeli forces and American forces had said that in 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.880 past conflicts they significantly weaken them. 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:36.120 Is that the case this time around? 0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:39.120 Is has bolas, they have these tens of thousands of 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:40.240 rockets to use. 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.000 Are they weakened at this point? 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:44.600 I think the number of folks that they have to 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:47.280 actually do this, yes, absolutely. The number of hostiles that 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:50.440 are involved, yes, The number of infrastructure compared to where 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.000 they used to be, yes, I think people didn't quite 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.040 understand exactly how large the proxy force threat around the 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.960 world was. That's actually been getting mitigated over the past 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.040 ten years or so, and you're actually seeing a lot 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:04.400 of that come from the proxies. 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:04.720 Now. 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.760 I actually expected a lot more proxy involvement earlier on. 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:10.000 You've seen some of it on the non kinetic side. 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.879 You've seen proxies tryafor cyber attacks and others as well. 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:15.920 But you know, as this continues to go on, it 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:18.360 ends up being another lever that i RAN can pull 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:20.800 and still provide some level of plausible deniability. 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:22.720 Colonel Sanders, it's been a lot of the weekend trying 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.360 to figure out ways that this could end that would 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:28.280 be palatable to both the GCC, the Gulf countries as 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.560 well as the United States and Israel. Do you see 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:35.080 any path to creating some sort of new normal that 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:38.520 would be palatable to the partners in the region and 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:40.919 that would lead to some sort of permanent end to 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:41.480 the fighting. 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:45.840 I think when i RAN talks about compensation, when they 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.359 talk about war compensation, I think there obviously has to 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.239 be some level acknowledgement that says, hey, look, we did 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:53.840 the following things to you and I ran. And so 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.919 from that perspective, we're going to give you a certain 0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:01.320 stipulation for this, whether it's monetary or another means. There 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:03.120 has to be a way for Iran to save face 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:04.880 in this and say, okay, all right, we were able 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:08.040 to you know, inflict a certain amount of damage not 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:10.040 only the Golf States as well as to the US. 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:11.959 So we need to be continued to look at as 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:14.959