Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Mark Moa Show, where I
Speaker 1: am bringing to you the latest information on bitcoin, cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 1: and the decentralized revolution each and every week. Ah, this
Speaker 1: is the most important part of your week. This is
Speaker 1: the part of the week that you do not want
Speaker 1: to miss because this is literally the biggest opportunity you
Speaker 1: will ever have, you'll ever see in your lifetime, and
Speaker 1: not just your lifetime, probably the biggest opportunity that people
Speaker 1: will see in generations. It's that big. Now, as a
Speaker 1: as a pretty much career long professional investor, we look
Speaker 1: for something known as an asymmetric opportunity, means we have
Speaker 1: more upside than downside. That's how you always think about investing.
Speaker 1: And the best way to get that asymmetric upside is
Speaker 1: to have a symmetric information. That means that you have
Speaker 1: information that most people don't know about. And so that's
Speaker 1: what I'm bringing to you each and every week. So
Speaker 1: make sure to tune in if you can real quick.
Speaker 1: Just go ahead and pull out your phone or whatever,
Speaker 1: set a reminder to come back to the station at
Speaker 1: this time and join in with me. Now we're gonna
Speaker 1: dig right into it. I want to give you the the
Speaker 1: information that you need. And the big news this week,
Speaker 1: of course, is all time highs. We are back to
Speaker 1: all time highs. We are seeing cryptocurrencies smashed through previous
Speaker 1: all time highs and go into what we would call
Speaker 1: uncharted territory. Now. I started out this show the first
Speaker 1: episode we did and I had my good friend Alex
Speaker 1: Gladstein on and the reason why I stated, um, and
Speaker 1: if you missed that episode, go back and listen to it.
Speaker 1: But the reason why I stated I want to have
Speaker 1: Alex on for that show is because he is head
Speaker 1: of the Human Rights Foundation and bitcoin is doing more
Speaker 1: for human rights, global human rights than any other thing
Speaker 1: we've ever seen happen in this world today. And I
Speaker 1: wanted to put it um on the first episode, the
Speaker 1: first show, because I wanted people to know that is
Speaker 1: the most important thing. I didn't want to talk about
Speaker 1: the price. I've continued to say that I think price
Speaker 1: is a distraction. Of course, I've gone deep into that
Speaker 1: um and I don't want to spend a lot of
Speaker 1: time on that. If you've been tuning in every single week,
Speaker 1: you've already heard that. But I do just want to
Speaker 1: just kind of reiterate that before. Of course, we jump
Speaker 1: in and talk about the price because everybody's excited. We
Speaker 1: are sitting at all time highs again right now. Um.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, we saw a bitcoin smashed
Speaker 1: through its previous all time high that was set right
Speaker 1: around sixty four, just under sixty five thousand, and in
Speaker 1: last night's and early morning trading we got up as
Speaker 1: high as sixties seven thousand U S. Dollars per bitcoin.
Speaker 1: Now I've seen many people joking, um that you know,
Speaker 1: the U. S. Government has printed about eight trillion dollars
Speaker 1: over the last year, which means that your dollars buy less.
Speaker 1: They inflated the money monetary supply by about so now
Speaker 1: your dollars will buy about less goods and services. So
Speaker 1: if we're adjusted for inflation, maybe we're not back up
Speaker 1: to all time eyes. But we're not going to dig
Speaker 1: too much into that right now. But we have smashed
Speaker 1: that that previous all time high. Ethereum, the other big
Speaker 1: token was up as high as forty three hundred, about
Speaker 1: forty three seventy five and has now settled back down
Speaker 1: about four thousand. Of course, that is taking us into
Speaker 1: uncharted territory again. The price is a little bit of
Speaker 1: a of a distraction. I don't dig super deep into this,
Speaker 1: but just from pure technical analysis standpoint, which of course
Speaker 1: technical analysis is used for people to try to kind
Speaker 1: of forecast where these price movements are going. And you
Speaker 1: would look at the price action, you look at the candles,
Speaker 1: the bars, and then you would look at areas that
Speaker 1: had support and resistance and things like that. Well, when
Speaker 1: you get over the all time high, there is no
Speaker 1: resistance above head, so there's nothing, there's no ceiling, and
Speaker 1: so we get into what's known as a price discovery.
Speaker 1: Anytime you have a new product, or really anything in
Speaker 1: the free market, it goes through a process of price discovery,
Speaker 1: no different if it was real estate or any other asset.
Speaker 1: And basically what that is is the price needs to
Speaker 1: find the equilibrium of what or or the kind of
Speaker 1: the middle between what buyers want to pay for it
Speaker 1: and what sellers are willing to sell it for. Of Course,
Speaker 1: like all prices, they're driven by supply and demand. So
Speaker 1: if you have more buyers, more people that want to buy,
Speaker 1: then you do have people willing to sell, the price
Speaker 1: is going to go up. Those buyers will have to
Speaker 1: be willing to pay more um and likewise, the opposite
Speaker 1: is true, and so we're above the all time high.
Speaker 1: We're into that area known as UM. Like I said,
Speaker 1: price discovery. Now you might have heard if you're paying attention,
Speaker 1: and of course if not, don't worry, I got your back.
Speaker 1: I'm bringing it to each and every week. But the
Speaker 1: big news this week, the big, big, big, big news
Speaker 1: was that we got a bitcoin e t F that
Speaker 1: came out. It was released. Now, I believe it's been
Speaker 1: seven or eight years now that Wall Street has been
Speaker 1: trying to get a b bitcoin e t F into
Speaker 1: the marketplace, like seven years. Dozens and dozens a dozen
Speaker 1: of them have been submitted and continually have been denied
Speaker 1: over and over and over again. And so it's really
Speaker 1: big news at this point that we finally got a
Speaker 1: bitcoin e t F to go through, And of course
Speaker 1: that is part of what got the market so excited
Speaker 1: and blew it wide open. Now, I would definitely not
Speaker 1: say it was because of that UM. As a matter
Speaker 1: of fact, you know, the price of bitcoin has been
Speaker 1: on the rise ever since. I would say that it
Speaker 1: might be more due to a few other things. But
Speaker 1: that Bitcoin e t F is really big news, and
Speaker 1: I want to dig into that UM I think there's
Speaker 1: a lot of dangers in this e t F that
Speaker 1: a lot of people aren't aware of. I think there's
Speaker 1: a lot of dangers for individual people that they're not
Speaker 1: aware of. I think there's a lot of dangers to
Speaker 1: bitcoin UM that a lot of people aren't aware of.
Speaker 1: So I want to spend some time talking about that
Speaker 1: so you can navigate this correctly, not just for your
Speaker 1: own investments, but also UM, so you can just understand
Speaker 1: and how to sidestep this danger. But before we do that,
Speaker 1: I just kind of want to dip back into kind
Speaker 1: of this this price talk a little bit, because really
Speaker 1: we saw that that previous all time high was set
Speaker 1: back in April, so it's been basically, you know, since April,
Speaker 1: we've we've been at that price level since we hit
Speaker 1: that all time high of about sixty UM in April.
Speaker 1: We then watched the market plunge right from there and
Speaker 1: it got down, you know, dropped about fifty down into
Speaker 1: the thirty thousand range, and then it kind of bounced
Speaker 1: up and kind of sat in this like thirty two
Speaker 1: to thirty five thousand dollar range for a couple of months,
Speaker 1: basically from May eighteenth till about you know June, so
Speaker 1: about six weeks it kind of sat in that range,
Speaker 1: and I think, um, it's an understanding why the price
Speaker 1: shot back up is you kind of have to go
Speaker 1: back to why did the price drop in you know previously. Now,
Speaker 1: the first thing I would say is that, you know
Speaker 1: a lot of people are trying to figure out the price. Um,
Speaker 1: there's not always a reason why it moves every single
Speaker 1: day or every single week or whatever. You want to
Speaker 1: look at whatever timeframe, and UM, I would say, like
Speaker 1: I said, right, I'm looking at the price a little
Speaker 1: bit of a distraction, but it's still fun to try
Speaker 1: to understand this a little bit. And so um, what
Speaker 1: the big news was back when we hit that previous
Speaker 1: all time high is that China was banning bitcoin mining.
Speaker 1: That was a really big deal. They banned bitcoin mining,
Speaker 1: and so um, I actually had made a video about
Speaker 1: this on my YouTube channel where I break these subjects
Speaker 1: down with visuals my white board. If you want to
Speaker 1: check those out, just go to YouTube and type in
Speaker 1: Mark Moss. And I made a video about this and
Speaker 1: I called it China's second fatal mistake, China's second fatal mistake,
Speaker 1: and I talked about how um them kicking the bitcoin
Speaker 1: miners out of the country was going to be a
Speaker 1: fatal mistake for them. They made a big mistake. And
Speaker 1: you know a lot of people going up into that
Speaker 1: point before that happened, back in May, a lot of
Speaker 1: a lot of people would would often talk about bitcoin
Speaker 1: and say, how, um, you know, it's it's a problem
Speaker 1: because the government's could shut it down. And uh, it's
Speaker 1: also a problem because bit because China controls the majority
Speaker 1: of the mining. That was something they would always say, um.
Speaker 1: And so what was interesting is in China were trying
Speaker 1: to banned all the bitcoin mining, they literally forced all
Speaker 1: the miners to shut their equipment down and they kicked
Speaker 1: it all out. All those people had to pack up,
Speaker 1: and they had to move, and they had to leave
Speaker 1: the country. And again right they controlled over half of
Speaker 1: the networks. That was what people are afraid of. And
Speaker 1: it was a testament for how strong, how resilient bitcoin is.
Speaker 1: It was a testament because they literally shut down over
Speaker 1: half of the network literally a brute force attack, boom
Speaker 1: shut it down, and Bitcoin didn't skip a beat, didn't
Speaker 1: even skip a beat. They continued to pump out a
Speaker 1: new block every ten minutes. Of course, transaction times went
Speaker 1: slowed down a little bit, maybe transaction fees went up
Speaker 1: a little bit, but it didn't affect the network itself,
Speaker 1: but it did affect the price, and I think that
Speaker 1: was a big reason, probably the predominant reason why we
Speaker 1: saw the price dropped from that previous high all the
Speaker 1: way down, like I said about fifty now, but understanding
Speaker 1: that also helps us to know why it bounced back up.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, there's it's one of the
Speaker 1: two reasons that we would always look at to understand
Speaker 1: where these technologies are and more importantly um where the
Speaker 1: adoption will be and the price will be um, et cetera.
Speaker 1: And so I want to get into that. You need
Speaker 1: to understand this now. If you're just tuning in, you
Speaker 1: are listening to the Mark Mass Show, where I bring
Speaker 1: to you the latest information on bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the
Speaker 1: decentralized revolution each and every week. Again, like I say,
Speaker 1: this is an asymmetric opportunity, and I'll be right back
Speaker 1: with this asymmetric information you need to win with bitcoin.
Speaker 1: You are back with the Markma Show where we talk
Speaker 1: about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution come to
Speaker 1: you each and every week to bring you the latest
Speaker 1: up to up to the most current information you need
Speaker 1: so you can navigate this correctly. Now, before the break,
Speaker 1: we were talking about the price. I'll talk about how
Speaker 1: the price is a little bit of a in, a
Speaker 1: bit of a distraction. It's not something you should be
Speaker 1: focused on as an investor. If you're focusing on your
Speaker 1: portfolio on a daily, weekly, or even a monthly basis,
Speaker 1: it's not gonna work out too well for you. You
Speaker 1: need to be zoomed out. And so if you're focused
Speaker 1: on the price, you're definitely gonna be missing out on
Speaker 1: some things. But we're talking about how bitcoin got to
Speaker 1: a new all time high um and the previous high
Speaker 1: was set back in April, and I talked I was
Speaker 1: I was setting up to explain how the price of
Speaker 1: bitcoin tumbled because China destroyed half of the network, literally
Speaker 1: shut down over half of the network and force them
Speaker 1: to get out of the country. Now, if you run
Speaker 1: a business, or let's say you even run a household,
Speaker 1: but let's say that you ran a business and you
Speaker 1: have to shut yours, you know, your business was forced
Speaker 1: shut down, sort of like what happened with the pandemic
Speaker 1: last year. But guess what, you still have expenses. That's
Speaker 1: pretty difficult, right, I mean, you still got to cover
Speaker 1: your expenses. You don't have any income coming in. So
Speaker 1: what are you gonna do. Well, You're probably gonna be
Speaker 1: forced to start selling some assets, put some things on fire,
Speaker 1: cell clear out some inventory, something to try to get money. Now,
Speaker 1: imagine that times ten were Now not only are you
Speaker 1: shut down, but you literally have to pack your entire
Speaker 1: data center and move it halfway around the world. And
Speaker 1: so what happened is when those when when over half
Speaker 1: of the bitcoin network was forced to be shut down
Speaker 1: by China, they were forced to liquidate their bitcoin, right,
Speaker 1: so they sit on a bunch and their treasury reserves,
Speaker 1: and so they were dumping their bitcoin onto the market
Speaker 1: to try to raise the capital they needed to move
Speaker 1: across the world. Now, of course, as I said earlier,
Speaker 1: supply and demand. So when you have the same amount
Speaker 1: of buyers but you have an increase in supply, then
Speaker 1: typically you would expect prices to go down. And that's
Speaker 1: exactly what happened. Now, I think you know, the price
Speaker 1: of bitcoin stayed down, like I said, for about six weeks,
Speaker 1: and then it kind of jumped up and got into
Speaker 1: the forty dollar range. And then we saw something else
Speaker 1: from China. Thank you very much, China. Uh, something else
Speaker 1: from China, and that was that. About a month ago,
Speaker 1: China said it's not just enough to ban the bitcoin mining,
Speaker 1: we need to ban all cryptocurrencies. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: nobody in the country can do anything with cryptocurrencies. They
Speaker 1: can't buy them, they can't trade them, they can't own them,
Speaker 1: they can't do anything. And that was about six weeks ago.
Speaker 1: And since that time, since the time that they went
Speaker 1: ahead to ban it again courtesy of them, we have
Speaker 1: now seen the price of bitcoin jump up over and
Speaker 1: I think I think there's a couple of reasons why. Right,
Speaker 1: this is important to understand. So basically, what China did
Speaker 1: was they said, you don't have the right to hold
Speaker 1: your wealth in a way that we can't censor and
Speaker 1: steal and inflate away. Now when they tell you that,
Speaker 1: it kind of makes you want to find a way
Speaker 1: to do that. And so they're almost doing their own
Speaker 1: marketing or bitcoins marketing for us. And I think, um,
Speaker 1: it showed the rest of the world how important it
Speaker 1: was to get your wealth outside of their system. Um
Speaker 1: and I think also in China, it's also increased the
Speaker 1: demand not only for bitcoin. UM. I had some reports
Speaker 1: from some gold people I was talking to today and
Speaker 1: they said that gold, the gold sales, the volume of
Speaker 1: gold sales are off the chart in China. Of course,
Speaker 1: the people aren't buying gold boy on that you would
Speaker 1: typically store and you're safe. They're buying gold jewelry because
Speaker 1: that's what they have available to them, and so they're
Speaker 1: literally standing. There's long lines. At least I have been
Speaker 1: reported long lines at all the jewelry stores of people
Speaker 1: just trying to buy gold. They're trying to do anything
Speaker 1: they can to get their money out of the system.
Speaker 1: And so since that time, basically China told the world, hey,
Speaker 1: if if you don't want your government stealing your money,
Speaker 1: you should get out of the system. And since that time,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin has responded and to me, and maybe I'm just
Speaker 1: looking at this with some rose colored or we actually
Speaker 1: call them orange colored glenses and orange colored glasses. But
Speaker 1: maybe maybe it's just me, but it's like, um, maybe
Speaker 1: the world the sane, they're ready for a separation of
Speaker 1: money and state. Maybe they're ready to see the end
Speaker 1: of this government monopoly on money at least that's what
Speaker 1: the price action is telling us. And so, UM, that
Speaker 1: happened at the same time though, and so here's where
Speaker 1: we have to continue to get into this. So at
Speaker 1: the same time it's Kindah was cracking down on it,
Speaker 1: and the price of bitcoin responded. Um. People in the
Speaker 1: United States still say, oh, yeah, but the US will, well,
Speaker 1: we'll make it illegal, the US will ban it. Right,
Speaker 1: It's still I still hear that all the time. I
Speaker 1: think it's a ridiculous argument, one of dispelled many many times.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, I have multiple videos on
Speaker 1: my YouTube channel UM dedicated towards just answering that question.
Speaker 1: Why I don't think they could, why they couldn't, why
Speaker 1: they won't, why it would destroy the United States economy
Speaker 1: if they did, all these different topics. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, right, like I said, people still think it's
Speaker 1: going to happen in the US. But we had Jerome Powell,
Speaker 1: who's the head of the Federal Reserve of the Central
Speaker 1: Bank of the United States, and we had the head
Speaker 1: of the SEC gar Agains. They're both come out and
Speaker 1: say we will not ban it, point blank. If you
Speaker 1: need any more clear, that's about how clear they were. Um.
Speaker 1: And so they've come out and told you that they're
Speaker 1: not going to ban it. They've said that, and some
Speaker 1: people are still people don't want to believe it, and
Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, they don't really mean it to someone
Speaker 1: else is going to do it. But I think that
Speaker 1: this e t F being approved is the final nail
Speaker 1: in the coffin, Like this is like this is it
Speaker 1: Like there's just there's just no way. I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't want to say no way. I would say the probability,
Speaker 1: the probability of the government banning it at this point
Speaker 1: is just barely better than zero. Um. At this point,
Speaker 1: we have approximately fifty million Americans own bitcoin. Fifty million Americans,
Speaker 1: so that would be a big problem if they want
Speaker 1: to suck the wealth out of fifty million Americans. On
Speaker 1: top of that, um, the United States has become the
Speaker 1: biggest beneficiary of the bitcoin mining because it was all
Speaker 1: kicked out of China. A good majority of it came
Speaker 1: to the United States, mostly just in Texas, which is
Speaker 1: working to become a bitcoin state, which is a very
Speaker 1: interesting story in itself. And now we we have you know,
Speaker 1: most of Wall Street, from Fidelity to Goldman Sacks to
Speaker 1: you know, smaller players, UM, New York Stock Exchange, even
Speaker 1: you know cash app and PayPal, Vinmo, Now, etcetera. UM,
Speaker 1: they're all they've all built out Bitcoin products and services
Speaker 1: and so UM if the GUP we tried to ban it,
Speaker 1: that'ld be not only have fifty million Americans on their
Speaker 1: on their case, they'd also have all of Wall Street
Speaker 1: on their case. And now with an e t F
Speaker 1: finally approved and um, as a matter of fact, it
Speaker 1: was the second fastest growing, the second biggest e t
Speaker 1: F launch in history. And really it's kind of the
Speaker 1: biggest because the first one has an asterisk beside it.
Speaker 1: It was a carbon fund that was launched and it
Speaker 1: had a pre sell, so the pre sale kind of
Speaker 1: helped goose the numbers a little bit. UM, So it
Speaker 1: was the top one or two, let's call it, that
Speaker 1: biggest e t F s in history. And I think
Speaker 1: that just basically seals the deal. That's it. No way
Speaker 1: the government's going to make it illegal. I mean, all
Speaker 1: these things of course add up in in Bitcoin's favor.
Speaker 1: There's dozens of Senators and congress people that own it,
Speaker 1: all of Wall Street has products on it. UM, fifty
Speaker 1: million Americans own it. But today, as of today, as
Speaker 1: of this week, we now have any E t F
Speaker 1: and that's it, in my opinion, game over. And I
Speaker 1: think that so it was a combination of China shutting
Speaker 1: it down and seeing the Resolo really ziliency there and
Speaker 1: the E t F coming on board that really put
Speaker 1: this optimism back into the market and we are off
Speaker 1: to the races. Now. I don't typically talk a lot
Speaker 1: about the price, but I'm gonna talk about the price
Speaker 1: and more because it could be going some place. As
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, based off of the fun flow
Speaker 1: that's been going on in a t f UM. There's
Speaker 1: some people making some predictions that you might not even believe.
Speaker 1: And I bet you all want to know where the
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin could be by the end of the year.
Speaker 1: Let's say, by Christmas. Uh, let me just tell you.
Speaker 1: If your own bitcoin, it's going to be a very
Speaker 1: merry Christmas for you. Let me tell you that. So
Speaker 1: I'll come back, I'll tell you where I think the
Speaker 1: price could be by Christmas. We'll talk about where the
Speaker 1: price could be over the next year, two, three, four,
Speaker 1: and five years. Now, you might not believe some of
Speaker 1: these numbers. I have to report to you. But I
Speaker 1: am going to back it up with some credible information,
Speaker 1: so we'll talk about that, and then I want to
Speaker 1: dig more into this e t F because, um, like
Speaker 1: I said, there's some dangers here, not only just for you,
Speaker 1: but also danger for bitcoin overall. And I think that's
Speaker 1: important to understand. There's two different types of bitcoin e
Speaker 1: t F s. Again, you listen to the Markma Show
Speaker 1: talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the decentralized Revolution, and I
Speaker 1: will be right back. All right, welcome back. You are
Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Ma Show, where I am bringing
Speaker 1: to you each end every week the latest information, the
Speaker 1: latest news, the breaking news, the news that you need
Speaker 1: to know about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution
Speaker 1: that's happening right now. I'm talking about the largest technological
Speaker 1: revolution we have ever seen in history. Now I'm not
Speaker 1: talking about a new technology. I'm not talking about the
Speaker 1: uber app or the iPhone. I'm talking about a technological
Speaker 1: revolution that literally changes the way humanity works. The other
Speaker 1: thing about a technological revolution is that drives financial markets.
Speaker 1: Technological revolution drives financial markets. They happen about every fifty years,
Speaker 1: the previous financial mark, the previous technological revolution was the
Speaker 1: age of the microprocessor, which led to personal computers, telecommunications,
Speaker 1: and the Internet. And of course, if you look back
Speaker 1: over the last thirty or forty years, what what's been
Speaker 1: driving the financial markets? And of course it's the telecommunications
Speaker 1: and the internet stocks, right, the things Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google,
Speaker 1: et cetera. And if you went back to the technological
Speaker 1: revolution before that, that would be oil and automobiles, and
Speaker 1: of course Ford Chrysler GM, oil companies, etcetera. And so
Speaker 1: you get the point. And that is what we're doing.
Speaker 1: And so now we are talking about bitcoin, this technological revolution.
Speaker 1: It's going to drive the financial markets. And we're talking
Speaker 1: about the financial markets. Finally got in after like seven
Speaker 1: or eight years of trying to get their e t
Speaker 1: F approved and it was denied every single time, dozens
Speaker 1: and dozens of times, they finally got approved and it
Speaker 1: is going to drive the financial markets big time. Now,
Speaker 1: I told you before the break, I would tell you
Speaker 1: where some analysts are predicting the price of bitcoin to go.
Speaker 1: Um And and I was going to explain to the
Speaker 1: different types of of of bitcoin e t F because
Speaker 1: there's two actually, and I think it's important that you understand, Um,
Speaker 1: what the differences of these are because there's there's some
Speaker 1: danger if you don't get it, if you don't get
Speaker 1: it the right way. I think there's also some danger
Speaker 1: to bitcoin itself that I want to talk about. So
Speaker 1: before we get into the different types of the bitcoin
Speaker 1: E T F and talk about some of the dangers,
Speaker 1: because you definitely need to know that, let's talk about
Speaker 1: real quickly, probably what you've been waiting on, which is
Speaker 1: where could the potential price of bitcoin go? All right?
Speaker 1: So we'll talk about that now. Um, some people, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot of different opinions, and of course
Speaker 1: nobody has a crystal ball, um, and so let me
Speaker 1: just say that. But I will say that there's a
Speaker 1: lot of people who have been studying this for a
Speaker 1: long time and they kind of understand the way money
Speaker 1: flows and things like that, and so I think there's
Speaker 1: a few credible people to listen to. What I like
Speaker 1: to do is I look to look like to look
Speaker 1: for indicators or models, and then I like to look
Speaker 1: for a multiple of them, different ones, and I try
Speaker 1: to find out where there's some congruence where they agree.
Speaker 1: And so I think that's pretty important. So I'll show
Speaker 1: you three different models. UM, and we'll also just listen
Speaker 1: to a few different people that I think are are
Speaker 1: pretty credible. Um. And so the first thing I would
Speaker 1: say is that, um, we have based off of a
Speaker 1: study researchers at a platform for x suggests that bitcoin
Speaker 1: could reach a five trillion market cap value by the
Speaker 1: start of al right, So um, right now it's at
Speaker 1: about a one trillion dollar value. So that means it
Speaker 1: would have a five x or a five percent return
Speaker 1: by the start of which is basically two years away.
Speaker 1: So five return over the next two years, which, of
Speaker 1: course that actually sounds pretty reasonable. Um. We can see
Speaker 1: that over the last decade basically since bitcoin has been
Speaker 1: out since day one, it's averaged a two hundred percent
Speaker 1: annual compounded growth. Three that's what it's average since it's
Speaker 1: been around. And so to get a gain in the
Speaker 1: next you know, a little over two years, two and
Speaker 1: a half years, that sounds like it's about right on track. Now.
Speaker 1: That means if you were to put a thousand dollars in,
Speaker 1: it would be worth five thousand dollars. If you put
Speaker 1: half a million in, it could be worth two point
Speaker 1: five million dollars. You kind of get the idea, that's
Speaker 1: a pretty big number. Now to put that into kind
Speaker 1: of context, the stock market has averaged depending on what
Speaker 1: time frame you want to look at it, but somewhere
Speaker 1: around a six like like zero six like six percent
Speaker 1: to eight percent gain, six to eight percent gain, and
Speaker 1: so bitcoin has been average in a two hundred percent gain.
Speaker 1: Just to kind of put that into perspective. If some
Speaker 1: of you guys don't understand some of these numbers. UM
Speaker 1: fund Strat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, who has been charting
Speaker 1: and looking at the bitcoin price for a really long time,
Speaker 1: says it could attract based based off this new ETF,
Speaker 1: it could attract fifty billion dollars in flows into this
Speaker 1: new et F fund. And he thinks that we a
Speaker 1: see bitcoin getting to a hundred and sixty eight thousand
Speaker 1: dollars on this on this news d sixty eight thousand,
Speaker 1: which puts it uh about a hundred and fifty percent
Speaker 1: return from here, which again, these numbers maybe they don't
Speaker 1: make sense to but when a stock market is going
Speaker 1: up by six percent, to get a hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: percent is just incredible. Um So, so those are a
Speaker 1: couple of numbers, but I think there's some even better
Speaker 1: numbers than that. UM. Some of the better numbers that
Speaker 1: I like to look at our UM Fidelity. So Fidelity
Speaker 1: is one of the largest financial institutions in the United States. UM,
Speaker 1: and they've been doing a lot of research into bitcoin.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, they've been involved into bitcoin
Speaker 1: for a really really long time since kind of the
Speaker 1: beginning since well not the beginning, but I'm going back
Speaker 1: to about two thousand and seventeen, and they've done a
Speaker 1: lot of research. They've been they've been mining bitcoins since
Speaker 1: that time. UM. They set up a digital assets side,
Speaker 1: UM they do loans against bitcoin UM and of course
Speaker 1: then they forecast it out to their you know, subscribers
Speaker 1: and whatnot. And UM they put out some reports just
Speaker 1: a couple of months ago, it's two three months ago,
Speaker 1: I think, and it was from Jury and Timmer he's
Speaker 1: the director of Global Macro at Fidelity, and he put
Speaker 1: together this whole slide deck. UM. There's a lot of charts,
Speaker 1: a lot of graphics. UM. Again, I have a have
Speaker 1: a video on YouTube channel that breaks all these slides
Speaker 1: down if you want to see them to get a
Speaker 1: little bit more sense of it. But basically he predict
Speaker 1: or basically his research. What Fidelity put forward was that
Speaker 1: he predicted that the value of bitcoin would reach one
Speaker 1: billion dollars her coin in about two decades, so twenty years,
Speaker 1: which is a long time. It's a long way off,
Speaker 1: but that's what he was saying. Now, he combined a
Speaker 1: couple of charts um one something that's called a stock
Speaker 1: to flow model. Uh. The stock to flow model is
Speaker 1: basically what it sounds like. But the stock is the
Speaker 1: existing supply, how much do we have right now today,
Speaker 1: the existing stock that's available, and then the flow is
Speaker 1: the new incoming supply, like the inflow ation rate. And
Speaker 1: so you can take scarce assets like gold and silver,
Speaker 1: for example, and then you can overlay them with this
Speaker 1: stock to flow model. Like, for example, you take all
Speaker 1: the gold that we have in the world, which, by
Speaker 1: the way, if you took all the gold in existence
Speaker 1: today and melted it all into one giant cube, I
Speaker 1: think it fits like in a football field. It's not
Speaker 1: that not that big, um, But that's the existing stock,
Speaker 1: and then we have the flow. So there's obviously gold
Speaker 1: miners all around the world that are digging gold out
Speaker 1: of the ground, um, and that's the new incoming flow.
Speaker 1: So we have the inflation is by a couple percent
Speaker 1: couple points um, and so you you kind of look
Speaker 1: at that, and then you could also use that same
Speaker 1: kind of a chart and you could look at bitcoin
Speaker 1: with that. And so that's one way to do that.
Speaker 1: Another way that they went to look at the price
Speaker 1: is using something known as Metcalf's law. And Metcalf's law
Speaker 1: is basically something that says that UM, a networks value
Speaker 1: grows by the number of users. And so they looked
Speaker 1: at that, and they looked at the users the networks
Speaker 1: grows and they kind of use that to extrapolate some
Speaker 1: of the value, and they said that bitcoins value should
Speaker 1: grow much faster than it does, um than the network
Speaker 1: of buyers and sellers grow. But they went on to UM.
Speaker 1: They also went on to say some stuff that kind
Speaker 1: of walked back some of that talk. So to say
Speaker 1: that bitcoin would be worth one I know, it cracks
Speaker 1: me up just saying it, but a billion dollars per
Speaker 1: coin in twenty years, But they went and walked to
Speaker 1: that back a little bit. And what do I mean, UM,
Speaker 1: They said that you know, money is changing, Money is
Speaker 1: losing its value really really really fast, and it's it's
Speaker 1: losing value faster and faster as time it was on.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, the dollar, as I think
Speaker 1: I started out in the first UM part talking about
Speaker 1: that the value of the dollars lost of its purchasing
Speaker 1: power just this year, and so UM basically, when bitcoin
Speaker 1: is worth a billion dollars, a billion dollars isn't worth
Speaker 1: very much. That's basically what it comes down to. UM
Speaker 1: and and Timber went on to have like an example
Speaker 1: and said that like a dollar invested in stocks in
Speaker 1: the now worth like almost four billion dollars, and and
Speaker 1: like twenty years ago, UM and in twenty years, basically
Speaker 1: one billion dollars would be worth what about one million
Speaker 1: is kind of currently buying. And so you have to
Speaker 1: kind of think about things in terms of purchasing power.
Speaker 1: What would one million dollars buy me today in goods
Speaker 1: and services? And so they're basically saying that potentially in
Speaker 1: twenty years from now, a billion dollars would buy you
Speaker 1: the same amount of goods and services that one million
Speaker 1: buy you today. So it is important to kind of
Speaker 1: keep that in uh in in a friend of mind
Speaker 1: when you start thinking about these big numbers. But they're
Speaker 1: saying that in twenty years time, you could see um
Speaker 1: a chillion dollars being a quite common number. I want
Speaker 1: to come back and tell you where I think bitcoin
Speaker 1: price will be before by Christmas time and by the
Speaker 1: first quarter of next year. You're listening to the Markma Show,
Speaker 1: don't go away. I want to bring the price when
Speaker 1: I come right back. All right, welcome back. You are
Speaker 1: back with the Markma Show where we are talking about
Speaker 1: bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution, where I bring
Speaker 1: it to you each and every week right here, the
Speaker 1: same time, on the same channel. So just do me
Speaker 1: a favorite, real quick, pull out your phone, put a
Speaker 1: calendar reminder on there and put this channel, put this
Speaker 1: time so you can join me each and every week.
Speaker 1: Because I'm bringing to you the most important information. You
Speaker 1: do not want to miss this, I can guarantee you.
Speaker 1: And the reason why I say that and I can
Speaker 1: put a guarantee on it is because I can guarantee
Speaker 1: you that this is going to be the biggest opportunity
Speaker 1: that you've ever had in your lifetime, and not just
Speaker 1: your life, to multiple lifetimes. And so in order to
Speaker 1: take advantage of it, you need to understand what's going
Speaker 1: on and that's what I'm gonna bring you each and
Speaker 1: every week. Now, do me another favor. While you have
Speaker 1: your phone out, while it's in your hand, why don't
Speaker 1: you just go ahead and go over to Twitter if
Speaker 1: you're on Twitter, or if you're on Instagram, and just
Speaker 1: pull it open and type in one Mark Moss. That's
Speaker 1: the number one. Just one Mark Moss and give me
Speaker 1: a follow, Give me a follow on Twitter, on Instagram
Speaker 1: and give me a common shout out. Give me an
Speaker 1: app and ask me a question. Tell me heard me
Speaker 1: on the radio and ask me a question, and I'll
Speaker 1: make sure to answer that for you next week. I
Speaker 1: don't have live calling yet. We'll get that going at
Speaker 1: some point, but for now, you can tweet at me
Speaker 1: or hit me up on Instagram. Now we're going. We
Speaker 1: were talking about where the price of bitcoin could go.
Speaker 1: Of course, we went with some crazy numbers. I know,
Speaker 1: I went way crazy with that Fidelity. Their fidelity put
Speaker 1: the numbers out. That wasn't me. But they talked about
Speaker 1: the price of bitcoin getting up to one billion dollars
Speaker 1: per coin in the next twenty years. But then of
Speaker 1: course we walked that back and said that yes, but
Speaker 1: in twenty years from now, a billion dollars will buy
Speaker 1: you about the same amount of goods and services that
Speaker 1: one million would be able to buy you right now.
Speaker 1: So we did kind of walk that back a little bit.
Speaker 1: But let's look at some other numbers. So UM, going
Speaker 1: back to the stock to flow model. UM I kind
Speaker 1: of explained before we went to the break. It's basically
Speaker 1: the stock the existing supply, how much supply is available,
Speaker 1: and then the flow, which is the new incoming supply
Speaker 1: or the inflation rate. UM. And so that's one model
Speaker 1: that the guy who created that is a is a
Speaker 1: guy named Plan Bes, a renowned quantitative analyst UM and
Speaker 1: he he's the kind of the one that came up
Speaker 1: with a stock to flow model. He says that he'll
Speaker 1: be caught off guard. He'll be caught off guard. He'll
Speaker 1: be surprised if bitcoin remains below the six figure mark
Speaker 1: by the end. That's what he says. Now he's he's
Speaker 1: he's a pretty smart guy. I mean he looks at
Speaker 1: this a lot, he says, quote quoting him, I would
Speaker 1: be very surprised that bitcoins price would be below a
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars the end of the year. That would
Speaker 1: sort of invalidate my view my models, and that would
Speaker 1: certainly surprise me. He went on to say, get ready
Speaker 1: ready for a merry Christmas, because here we go. I
Speaker 1: do think we will see a price that is at
Speaker 1: least a hundred and thirty five thousand by Christmas, because
Speaker 1: that's what my floor model says. Basically, I'm using three
Speaker 1: kinds of models that all say the same thing end quote.
Speaker 1: So remember I talked about having that different models, different
Speaker 1: indicators that that have kind of the same message, and
Speaker 1: that's exactly what he's saying. So, um, shoot, man, if
Speaker 1: if you doubled your money between now and Christmas, would
Speaker 1: that make for a pretty merry SMAs? I think it
Speaker 1: would promote. Now, the problem is money is not wealth.
Speaker 1: Money only communicates wealth. Money tells you how much wealth
Speaker 1: you can go acquire. Wealth is goods and services. If
Speaker 1: you have a bunch of money, if you're on a
Speaker 1: deserted island with no boat, no phone, no food, no nothing,
Speaker 1: you have money with you. It does you know good? Right?
Speaker 1: You need to be able to have good and services,
Speaker 1: of course, And they're saying that by Christmas. Like I
Speaker 1: saw Apple revise their numbers and they said that they
Speaker 1: may not be able to get enough iPhones out for Christmas.
Speaker 1: But basically we're forecasting to have massive shortages on everything
Speaker 1: from food to electronics to automobiles. Everything is gonna be
Speaker 1: in short supply by Christmas. So while you might have
Speaker 1: a lot of money in your account, you may not
Speaker 1: be able to buy as much stuff. But we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about that a little bit later in the show.
Speaker 1: We'll get into some of that stuff because, as we
Speaker 1: always say, bitcoin fixes this, and it can certainly fix
Speaker 1: that problem, but we're gonna stay talking about the price
Speaker 1: for right now. And so we have that stock to
Speaker 1: flow model. That's that's one of the three models. Another
Speaker 1: one we look at is on chain signals are on
Speaker 1: chain data. Now, one thing that makes Bitcoin unique from
Speaker 1: any other asset class out there in the whole world
Speaker 1: is what's called on chain data. And on chain data
Speaker 1: is interesting because basically, you know, the Bitcoin network is
Speaker 1: is what's called open. It's anonymous, so you can see
Speaker 1: all the transactions that are happening on it, but you
Speaker 1: don't know who it belongs to. So it's anonymous, but
Speaker 1: it's open and you can see that. And and because
Speaker 1: of that, it allows us to see this data and
Speaker 1: helps us to really understand what's going on in the network.
Speaker 1: And so, for example, if we're looking at on chain data,
Speaker 1: what we can see is um like, we can see
Speaker 1: bitcoin balances that are sitting on exchanges. We can see
Speaker 1: how many new wallets are being created. We can see
Speaker 1: what the average purchase sizes. Another one that's super interesting
Speaker 1: is we can see the age of the coins, so
Speaker 1: we can see how long those coins have stayed put
Speaker 1: or or moved, and that helps us to understand who
Speaker 1: were the short term traders and who were the long
Speaker 1: term hoddlers, the ones that are holding for the long term.
Speaker 1: So there's some some really really interesting things that we
Speaker 1: can get from that on chain data that you just
Speaker 1: can't get for anything. There's nothing else in the world
Speaker 1: that you can do that with, and so that's pretty helpful.
Speaker 1: One one thing that we saw with on change data,
Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting. Um just just today, over seventeen thousand
Speaker 1: bitcoin were withdrawn off of exchanges over the last hour.
Speaker 1: That's just over the last hour, that's today, seventeen thousand
Speaker 1: bitcoin pulled off of exchanges. Now what does that mean exactly? Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, seventeen thousand just to give you some perspective,
Speaker 1: that's over a billion dollars. At one point one billion
Speaker 1: dollars was taken off of exchanges. And so when it's
Speaker 1: taken off of exchanges, that means it's going into like
Speaker 1: a private wallet like cold storage or something like that.
Speaker 1: And so when it's pulled off of exchange, that means
Speaker 1: it's not going to be exchanged or traded. Right, So
Speaker 1: if people bought bitcoin and then exchange it for another cryptocurrency,
Speaker 1: or they moved into a stable coin, um, they're buying, selling, buying, selling,
Speaker 1: buy and selling, that'd be one thing. This is taking
Speaker 1: it off of the supply, taking off the exchange. And
Speaker 1: again remember supply and demand. And so if you take
Speaker 1: if you take seventeen thousand coins out of supply and
Speaker 1: the demand stays the same, then the price continues to
Speaker 1: go up. So that's one thing that's UM pretty interesting,
Speaker 1: I would say from that. Another thing that's pretty interesting
Speaker 1: with some on chained data is we can see, um,
Speaker 1: we can see, like I was saying, the age of
Speaker 1: the coins, and what we can see is that over
Speaker 1: UM I think it's coins haven't moved for more than
Speaker 1: ninety days, and so that means that long term hoddlers
Speaker 1: are in control of the market. So that means there's
Speaker 1: you know, ten or of the supply that's available to
Speaker 1: buy and sell. The rest of it's locked up, it's
Speaker 1: off the market. And that's another thing. And so that
Speaker 1: that helps us see that um. And then there's another
Speaker 1: thing called a floor model that helps us find them
Speaker 1: with the lowest possible prices, and that would use things
Speaker 1: like cost to mind, etcetera, things like that. But what
Speaker 1: we can see is that when we look at all
Speaker 1: of those, when we look at all three of those,
Speaker 1: and as plan B says, right there all kind of
Speaker 1: showing the same thing. He says, uh quote, I would
Speaker 1: say that the top is at least um, say, six
Speaker 1: months from here, so the end of Q one of
Speaker 1: two or maybe later. He went on to say that
Speaker 1: the top end of his stock to flow model pins
Speaker 1: the price of bitcoin at two hundred and eighty eight
Speaker 1: thousand dollars at the peak of this cycle, the big
Speaker 1: number where it's sixty five thousand a day to get
Speaker 1: to eighty eight. Now, and let me just say real quick,
Speaker 1: this is not financial advice. I am not telling you
Speaker 1: to go buy bitcoin. Don't hold me to it. All
Speaker 1: I'm doing is reading to you what other analysts are thinking. Again,
Speaker 1: I am not telling you to go buy it um.
Speaker 1: This is not financial advice, so I'll just go ahead
Speaker 1: and say that. But basically he says that these three
Speaker 1: models are pointing to that a price target of two
Speaker 1: eighty eight, So we kind of have this range somewhere
Speaker 1: between one thirty five to eighty eight, which, of course
Speaker 1: any of the those numbers I think would be okay with.
Speaker 1: He went on to say that I wouldn't not be
Speaker 1: surprised even to see in Q one or Q two
Speaker 1: of next year prices from three four or even five
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars um. And so that's interesting. That's really interesting.
Speaker 1: Now going back to what Fidelity said, remember that also
Speaker 1: means that the dollars just aren't buying as much anymore.
Speaker 1: So I want you to just kind of keep that
Speaker 1: in mind as we're talking about this. But that's where
Speaker 1: things would go. Now, that's all about the price. I
Speaker 1: want to dig in and talk about more than just price.
Speaker 1: There's more We're gonna talk about these e t f s.
Speaker 1: As I was kind of saying, there's two different types
Speaker 1: of ETFs UM, and you really need to be aware
Speaker 1: of the two different types that are available. One is
Speaker 1: way more risky than the other. So I want you
Speaker 1: to understand that what we're gonna talk about that, dangers
Speaker 1: of that, and so forth. When we get back. You
Speaker 1: are listening to the Mark mass Show, where I bring
Speaker 1: to the latest information for bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and this decentralized revolution.
Speaker 1: Each and every week, UM, put aleut your phone, put
Speaker 1: it on your calendar, don't miss me next week on
Speaker 1: this channel. Like I said, this is going to be
Speaker 1: the information that you need to know. It's literally going
Speaker 1: to be life changing information because this is gonna be
Speaker 1: the biggest opportunity that you will ever witness in your lifetime.
Speaker 1: And I don't want you to get caught up with
Speaker 1: the rest of the sheep and the rest of the mania.
Speaker 1: I want to bring you that information that you need
Speaker 1: to know. Um, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show.
Speaker 1: Don't go away. I'm going to be right back.